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## Imports | |
import pickle | |
import warnings | |
import streamlit as st | |
from pathlib import Path | |
import numpy as np | |
import pandas as pd | |
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt | |
import datetime | |
# import torch | |
from torch.distributions import Normal | |
from pytorch_forecasting import ( | |
TimeSeriesDataSet, | |
TemporalFusionTransformer, | |
) | |
## Functions | |
def raw_preds_to_df(raw,quantiles = None): | |
""" | |
raw is output of model.predict with return_index=True | |
quantiles can be provided like [0.1,0.5,0.9] to get interpretable quantiles | |
in the output, time_idx is the first prediction time index (one step after knowledge cutoff) | |
pred_idx the index of the predicted date i.e. time_idx + h - 1 | |
""" | |
index = raw[2] | |
preds = raw[0].prediction | |
dec_len = preds.shape[1] | |
n_quantiles = preds.shape[-1] | |
preds_df = pd.DataFrame(index.values.repeat(dec_len * n_quantiles, axis=0),columns=index.columns) | |
preds_df = preds_df.assign(h=np.tile(np.repeat(np.arange(1,1+dec_len),n_quantiles),len(preds_df)//(dec_len*n_quantiles))) | |
preds_df = preds_df.assign(q=np.tile(np.arange(n_quantiles),len(preds_df)//n_quantiles)) | |
preds_df = preds_df.assign(pred=preds.flatten().cpu().numpy()) | |
if quantiles is not None: | |
preds_df['q'] = preds_df['q'].map({i:q for i,q in enumerate(quantiles)}) | |
preds_df['pred_idx'] = preds_df['time_idx'] + preds_df['h'] - 1 | |
return preds_df | |
def prepare_dataset(parameters, df, rain, temperature, datepicker): | |
if rain != "Default": | |
df["MTXWTH_Day_precip"] = rain_mapping[rain] | |
df["MTXWTH_Temp_min"] = df["MTXWTH_Temp_min"] + temperature | |
df["MTXWTH_Temp_max"] = df["MTXWTH_Temp_max"] + temperature | |
lowerbound = datepicker - datetime.timedelta(days = 35) | |
upperbound = datepicker + datetime.timedelta(days = 30) | |
df = df.loc[(df["Date"]>lowerbound) & (df["Date"]<=upperbound)] | |
df = TimeSeriesDataSet.from_parameters(parameters, df) | |
return df.to_dataloader(train=False, batch_size=256,num_workers = 0) | |
def predict(model, dataloader): | |
return model.predict(dataloader, mode="raw", return_x=True, return_index=True) | |
## Initiate Data | |
with open('data/parameters.pkl', 'rb') as f: | |
parameters = pickle.load(f) | |
model = TemporalFusionTransformer.load_from_checkpoint('model/tft_check.ckpt', map_location=torch.device('cpu')) | |
df = pd.read_pickle('data/test_data.pkl') | |
df = df.loc[(df["Branch"] == 15) & (df["Group"].isin(["6","7","4","1"]))] | |
rain_mapping = { | |
"Yes" : 1, | |
"No" : 0 | |
} | |
# Start App | |
st.title("Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting") | |
st.markdown(body = """ | |
### Abstract | |
Multi-horizon forecasting often contains a complex mix of inputs – including | |
static (i.e. time-invariant) covariates, known future inputs, and other exogenous | |
time series that are only observed in the past – without any prior information | |
on how they interact with the target. Several deep learning methods have been | |
proposed, but they are typically ‘black-box’ models which do not shed light on | |
how they use the full range of inputs present in practical scenarios. In this pa- | |
per, we introduce the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) – a novel attention- | |
based architecture which combines high-performance multi-horizon forecasting | |
with interpretable insights into temporal dynamics. To learn temporal rela- | |
tionships at different scales, TFT uses recurrent layers for local processing and | |
interpretable self-attention layers for long-term dependencies. TFT utilizes spe- | |
cialized components to select relevant features and a series of gating layers to | |
suppress unnecessary components, enabling high performance in a wide range of | |
scenarios. On a variety of real-world datasets, we demonstrate significant per- | |
formance improvements over existing benchmarks, and showcase three practical | |
interpretability use cases of TFT. | |
""") | |
rain = st.radio("Rain Indicator", ('Default', 'Yes', 'No')) | |
temperature = st.slider('Change in Temperature', min_value=-10, max_value=+10, value=0, step=0.25) | |
datepicker = st.date_input("Start of Forecast", datetime.date(2022, 12, 24), min_value=datetime.date(2022, 6, 26) + datetime.timedelta(days = 35), max_value=datetime.date(2023, 6, 26) - datetime.timedelta(days = 30)) | |
arr = np.random.normal(1, 1, size=100) | |
fig, ax = plt.subplots() | |
ax.hist(arr, bins=20) | |
st.pyplot(fig) | |
st.button("Forecast Sales", type="primary") #on_click=None, | |
# %% | |
preds = raw_preds_to_df(out, quantiles = None) | |
preds = preds.merge(data_selected[['time_idx','Group','Branch','sales','weight','Date','MTXWTH_Day_precip','MTXWTH_Temp_max','MTXWTH_Temp_min']],how='left',left_on=['pred_idx','Group','Branch'],right_on=['time_idx','Group','Branch']) | |
preds.rename(columns={'time_idx_x':'time_idx'},inplace=True) | |
preds.drop(columns=['time_idx_y'],inplace=True) | |