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Exploiting easy data in online optimization Amir Sani Gergely Neu Alessandro Lazaric SequeL team, INRIA Lille ? Nord Europe, France {amir.sani,gergely.neu,alessandro.lazaric}@inria.fr Abstract We consider the problem of online optimization, where a learner chooses a decision from a given decision set and suffers some loss associated with the decision and the state of the environment. The learner?s objective is to minimize its cumulative regret against the best ?xed decision in hindsight. Over the past few decades numerous variants have been considered, with many algorithms designed to achieve sub-linear regret in the worst case. However, this level of robustness comes at a cost. Proposed algorithms are often over-conservative, failing to adapt to the actual complexity of the loss sequence which is often far from the worst case. In this paper we introduce a general algorithm that, provided with a ?safe? learning algorithm and an opportunistic ?benchmark?, can effectively combine good worst-case guarantees with much improved performance on ?easy? data. We derive general theoretical bounds on the regret of the proposed algorithm and discuss its implementation in a wide range of applications, notably in the problem of learning with shifting experts (a recent COLT open problem). Finally, we provide numerical simulations in the setting of prediction with expert advice with comparisons to the state of the art. 1 Introduction We consider a general class of online decision-making problems, where a learner sequentially decides which actions to take from a given decision set and suffers some loss associated with the decision and the state of the environment. The learner?s goal is to minimize its cumulative loss as the interaction between the learner and the environment is repeated. Performance is usually measured with regard to regret; that is, the difference between the cumulative loss of the algorithm and the best single decision over the horizon in the decision set. The objective of the learning algorithm is to guarantee that the per-round regret converges to zero as time progresses. This general setting includes a wide range of applications such as online linear pattern recognition, sequential investment and time series prediction. Numerous variants of this problem were considered over the last few decades, mainly differing in the shape of the decision set (see [6] for an overview). One of the most popular variants is the problem of prediction with expert advice, where the decision set is the N -dimensional simplex and the perround losses are linear functions of ? the learner?s decision. In this setting, a number of algorithms are known to guarantee regret of order T after T repetitions of the game. Another well-studied setting is online convex optimization (OCO), where the decision set is a convex subset of Rd and the loss functions are convex and smooth. Again, a number of simple algorithms are known to guarantee ? a worst-case regret of order T in this setting. These results hold for any (possibly adversarial) assignment of the loss sequences. Thus, these algorithms are guaranteed to achieve a decreasing per-round regret that approaches the performance of the best ?xed decision in hindsight even in the worst case. Furthermore, these guarantees are?unimprovable in the sense that there exist sequences of loss functions where the learner suffers ?( T ) regret no matter what algorithm the learner uses. However this robustness comes at a cost. These algorithms are often overconservative and fail to adapt to the actual complexity of the loss sequence, which in practice is often far from the worst 1 possible. In fact, it is well known that making some assumptions on the loss generating mechanism improves the regret guarantees. For instance, the simple strategy of following the leader (FTL, otherwise known as ?ctitious play in game theory, see, e.g., [6, Chapter 7]), which at each round picks the single decision that minimizes the total losses so far, guarantees O(log T ) regret in the expert setting when assuming i.i.d. loss vectors. The same strategy also guarantees O(log T ) regret in the OCO setting, when assuming all loss functions are strongly convex. On the other hand, the risk of using this strategy is that it?s known to suffer ?(T ) regret in the worst case. This paper focuses on how to distinguish between ?easy? and ?hard? problem instances, while achieving the best possible guarantees on both types of loss sequences. This problem recently received much attention in a variety of settings (see, e.g., [8] and [13]), but most of the proposed solutions required the development of ad-hoc algorithms for each speci?c scenario and de?nition of ?easy? problem. Another obvious downside of such ad-hoc solutions is that their theoretical analysis is often quite complicated and dif?cult to generalize to more complex problems. In the current paper, we set out to de?ne an algorithm providing a general structure that can be instantiated in a wide range of settings by simply plugging in the most appropriate choice of two algorithms for learning on ?easy? and ?hard? problems. Aside from exploiting easy data, our method has other potential applications. For example, in some sensitive applications we may want to protect ourselves from complete catastrophe, rather than take risks for higher payoffs. In fact, our work builds directly on the results of Even-Dar et al. [9], who point out that learning algorithms in the experts setting may fail to satisfy the rather natural requirement of performing strictly better than a trivial algorithm that merely decides on which expert to follow by uniform coin ?ips. While Even-Dar et al. propose methods that achieve this goal, they leave open an obvious open question. Is it possible to strictly improve the performance of an existing (and possibly na??ve) solution by means of principled online learning methods? This problem can be seen as the polar opposite of failing to exploit easy data. In this paper, we push the idea of Even-Dar et al. one step further. We construct learning algorithms with order-optimal regret bounds, while also guaranteeing that their cumulative loss is within a constant factor of some pre-de?ned strategy referred to as the benchmark. We stress that this property is much stronger than simply guaranteeing O(1) regret with respect to some ?xed distribution D as done by Even-Dar et al. [9] since we allow comparisons to any ?xed strategy that is even allowed to learn. Our method guarantees that replacing an existing solution can be done at a negligible price in terms of output performance with additional strong guarantees on the worst-case performance. However, in what follows, we will only regard this aspect of our results as an interesting consequence while emphasizing the ability of our algorithm to exploit easy data. Our general structure, referred to as (A, B)-P ROD, receives a learning algorithm A and a benchmark B as input. Depending on the online optimization setting, it is enough to set A to any learning algorithm with performance guarantees on ?hard? problems and B to an opportunistic strategy exploiting the structure of ?easy? problems. (A, B)-P ROD smoothly mixes the decisions of A and B, achieving the best possible guarantees of both. 2 Online optimization with a benchmark Parameters: set of decisions S, number of rounds T ; For all t = 1, 2, . . . , T , repeat 1. The environment chooses loss function ft : S ? [0, 1]. 2. The learner chooses a decision xt ? S. 3. The environment reveals ft (possibly chosen depending on the past history of losses and decisions). 4. The forecaster suffers loss ft (xt ). Figure 1: The protocol of online optimization. We now present the formal setting and an algorithm for online optimization with a benchmark. The interaction protocol between the learner and the environment is formally described on Figure 1. The online optimization problem is characterized by the decision set S and the class F ? [0, 1]S of loss functions utilized by the environment. The performance of the ? learner is usually measured in terms ?T ? of the regret, de?ned as RT = supx?S t=1 ft (xt ) ? ft (x) . We say that an algorithm learns if it makes decisions so that RT = o(T ). 2 Let A and B be two online optimization algorithms that map observation histories to decisions in a possibly randomized fashion. For a formal de?nition, we ?x a time index t ? [T ] = {1, 2, . . . , T } and de?ne the observation history (or in short, the history) at the end of round t ? 1 as Ht?1 = (f1 , . . . , ft?1 ). H0 is de?ned as the empty set. Furthermore, de?ne the random variables Ut and Vt , drawn from the standard uniform distribution, independently of Ht?1 and each other. The learning algorithms A and B are formally de?ned as mappings from F ? ? [0, 1] to S with their respective decisions given as def def and bt = B(Ht?1 , Vt ). at = A(Ht?1 , Ut ) Finally, we de?ne a hedging strategy C that produces a decision xt based on the history of decisions proposed by A and B, with the possible help of some ? ? external? randomness represented by the ? uniform random variable W as x = C a , b , H , W t t t t t?1 ? ?t . Here, Ht?1 is the simpli?ed history consisting of f1 (a1 ), f1 (b1 ), . . . , ft?1 (at?1 ), ft?1 (bt?1 ) and C bases its decisions only on the past losses incurred by A and B without using any further information on the loss functions. The total ? T (C) = E[?T ft (xt )], where the expectation integrates over the expected loss of C is de?ned as L t=1 possible realizations of the internal randomization of A, B and C. The total expected losses of A, B and any ?xed decision x ? S are similarly de?ned. Our goal is to de?ne a hedging strategy with low regret against a benchmark strategy B, while also enjoying near-optimal guarantees on the worst-case regret against the best decision in hindsight. The (expected) regret of C against any ?xed decision x ? S and against the benchmark, are de?ned as ? T ? ? T ? ?? ?? ? ? RT (C, x) = E ft (xt ) ? ft (x) , RT (C, B) = E ft (xt ) ? ft (bt ) . t=1 t=1 Our hedging strategy, (A, B)-P ROD, is based on the Input: learning rate ? ? (0, 1/2], initial classic P ROD algorithm popularized by Cesa-Bianchi weights {w1,A , w1,B }, num. of rounds T ; et al. [7] and builds on a variant of P ROD called DFor all t = 1, 2, . . . , T , repeat P ROD, proposed in Even-Dar et al. [9], which (when 1. Let wt,A properly tuned) achieves constant regret against the perst = . wt,A + w1,B formance of a ?xed distribution D over experts, while ? guaranteeing O( T log T ) regret against the best ex2. Observe at and bt and predict ? pert in hindsight. Our variant (A, B)-P ROD (shown in at with probability st , Figure 2) is based on the observation that it is not necesxt = b otherwise. t sary to use a ?xed distribution D in the de?nition of the benchmark, but actually any learning algorithm or sig3. Observe ft and suffer loss ft (xt ). nal can be used as a baseline. (A, B)-P ROD maintains 4. Feed ft to A and B. two weights, balancing the advice of learning algorithm A and a benchmark B. The benchmark weight is de5. Compute ?t = ft (bt ) ? ft (at ) and set ?ned as w1,B ? (0, 1) and is kept unchanged during the wt+1,A = wt,A ? (1 + ??t ) . entire learning process. The initial weight assigned to A is w1,A = 1 ? w1,B , and in the remaining rounds Figure 2: (A, B)-P ROD t = 2, 3, . . . , T is updated as t?1 ?? ? ?? 1 ? ? fs (as ) ? fs (bs ) , wt,A = w1,A s=1 where the difference between the losses of A and B is used. Output xt is set to at with probability st = wt,A /(wt,A +w1,B ), otherwise it is set to bt .1 The following theorem states the performance guarantees for (A, B)-P ROD. Theorem 1 (cf. Lemma 1 in [9]). For any assignment of the loss sequence, the total expected loss of (A, B)-P ROD initialized with weights w1,B ? (0, 1) and w1,B = 1 ? w1,A simultaneously satis?es and 1 T ? ?2 log w1,A ? ? ? ? T (A) + ? ? T (A, B)-P ROD ? L ft (bt ) ? ft (at ) ? L ? t=1 ? ? ? T (A, B)-P ROD ? L ? T (B) ? log w1,B . L ? For convex decision sets S and loss families F, one can directly set xt = st at + (1 ? st )bt at no expense. 3 The proof directly follows from the P ROD analysis of Cesa-Bianchi et al. [7]. Next, we suggest a parameter setting for (A, B)-P ROD that guarantees constant regret against the benchmark B and ? O( T log T ) regret against the learning algorithm A in the worst case. ? T (B). Then setting Corollary? 1. Let C ? 1 be an upper bound on the total benchmark loss L ? = 1/2 ? (log C)/C < 1/2 and w1,B = 1 ? w1,A = 1 ? ? simultaneously guarantees ? ? ? RT (A, B)-P ROD, x ? RT (A, x) + 2 C log C for any x ? S and ? ? RT (A, B)-P ROD, B ? 2 log 2 against any assignment of the loss sequence. Notice that for any x ? S, the previous bounds can be written as ? ? ? RT ((A, B)-P ROD, x) ? min RT (A, x) + 2 C log C, RT (B, x) + 2 log 2 , which states that (A, B)-P ROD achieves the minimum ? between the regret of the benchmark B and that in most online learning algorithm A plus an additional regret of O( C log C). If we consider ? T ), the previous bound optimization settings, the worst-case regret for a learning algorithm is O( ? shows that at the cost of an additional factor of O( T log T ) in the worst case, (A, B)-P ROD performs as well as the benchmark, which is very useful whenever RT (B, x) is small. This suggests that if we set A to a learning algorithm with worst-case guarantees on ?dif?cult? problems and B to an algorithm with very good performance only on ?easy? problems, then (A, B)-P ROD successfully adapts to the dif?culty of the problem by ?nding a suitable mixture of A and B. Furthermore, as discussed by Even-Dar et al. [9], we note that in this case the P ROD update rule is crucial to achieve this result: any algorithm that bases its decisions solely on ? the cumulative difference between ft (at ) and ft (bt ) is bound to suffer an additional regret of O( T ) on both A and B. While H EDGE and follow-the-perturbed-leader (FPL) both fall into this category, it can be easily seen that this is not the case for P ROD. A similar observation has been made by de Rooij et al. [8], who discuss the possibility of combining a robust learning algorithm and FTL by H EDGE and conclude that this approach is insuf?cient for their goals ? see also Sect. 3.1. Finally, we note that the parameter proposed in Corollary 1 can hardly be computed in practice, ? T (B) is rarely available. Fortunately, we can since an upper-bound on the loss of the benchmark L adapt an improved version of P ROD with adaptive learning rates recently proposed by Gaillard et al. [11] and obtain an anytime version of (A, B)-P ROD. The resulting algorithm and its corresponding bounds are reported in App. B. 3 Applications The following sections apply our results to special cases of online optimization. Unless otherwise noted, all theorems are direct consequences of Corollary 1 and thus their proofs are omitted. 3.1 Prediction with expert advice We ?rst consider the most basic online optimization problem of prediction with expert advice. Here, ? ? ?N N S is the N -dimensional simplex ?N = x ? R+ : i=1 xi = 1 and the loss functions are linear, that is, the loss of any decision x ? ?N in round t is given as the inner product ft (x) = x? ?t and ?t ? [0, 1]N is the loss vector in round t. Accordingly, the family F of loss functions can be equivalently represented?by the set [0, 1]N . Many algorithms are known to achieve the optimal regret guarantee of O( T log N ) in this setting, including H EDGE (so dubbed by Freund and Schapire [10], see also the seminal works of Littlestone and Warmuth [20] and Vovk [23]) and the follow-the-perturbed-leader (FPL) prediction method of Hannan [16], later rediscovered by Kalai and Vempala [19]. However, as de Rooij et al. [8] note, these algorithms are usually too conservative to exploit ?easily learnable? loss sequences and might be signi?cantly outperformed by a ?t?1 simple strategy known as follow-the-leader (FTL), which predicts bt = arg minx?S x? s=1 ?s . For instance, FTL is known to be optimal in the case of i.i.d. losses, where it achieves a regret of O(log T ). As a direct consequence of Corollary 1, we can use the general structure of (A, B)-P ROD to match the performance of FTL on easy data, and at the same time, obtain the same worst-case guarantees of standard algorithms for prediction with expert advice. In particular, if we set FTL as the benchmark B and A DA H EDGE (see [8]) as the learning algorithm A, we obtain the following. 4 Theorem 2. Let S = ?N and F = [0, 1]N . Running (A, B)-P ROD with A = A DA H EDGE and B = FTL, with the parameter setting suggested in Corollary 1 simultaneously guarantees ? ? ? ? ? L?T (T ? L?T ) log N + 2 C log C RT (A, B)-P ROD, x ? RT (A DA H EDGE, x) + 2 C log C ? T for any x ? S, where L?T = minx??N LT (x), and ? ? RT (A, B)-P ROD, FTL ? 2 log 2. against any assignment of the loss sequence. ? ? While we recover the worst-case guarantee of O( T log N ) plus an additional regret O( T log T ) on ?hard? loss sequences, on ?easy? problems we inherit the good performance of FTL. Comparison with F LIP F LOP. The F LIP F LOP algorithm proposed by de Rooij et al. [8] addresses the problem of constructing algorithms that perform nearly as well as FTL on easy problems while retaining optimal guarantees on all possible loss sequences. More precisely, F LIP F LOP is a H EDGE algorithm where the learning rate ? alternates between in?nity (corresponding to FTL) and the value suggested by A DA H EDGE depending on the cumulative mixability gaps over the two regimes. The resulting algorithm is guaranteed to achieve the regret guarantees of RT (F LIP F LOP, x) ? 5.64RT (FTL, x) + 3.73 and ? RT (F LIP F LOP, x) ? 5.64 L?T (T ? L?T ) log N + O(log N ) T against any ?xed x ? ?N at the same time. Notice that while the guarantees in Thm. 2 are very similar in nature to those of de Rooij et al. [8] concerning F LIP F LOP, the two results are slightly different. ? The ?rst difference is that our worst-case bounds are inferior to theirs by a factor of order T log T .2 On the positive side, our guarantees are much stronger when FTL outperforms A DA H EDGE. To see this, observe that their regret bound can be rewritten as ? ? LT (F LIP F LOP) ? LT (FTL) + 4.64 LT (FTL) ? inf x LT (x) + 3.73, whereas our result replaces the last two terms by 2 log 2.3 The other advantage of our result is that we can directly bound the total loss of our algorithm in terms of the total loss of A DA H EDGE (see Thm. 1). This is to be contrasted with the result of de Rooij et al. [8], who upper bound their regret in terms of the regret bound of A DA H EDGE, which may not be tight and be much worse in practice than the actual performance of A DA H EDGE. All these advantages of our approach stem from the fact that we smoothly mix the predictions of A DA H EDGE and FTL, while F LIP F LOP explicitly follows one policy or the other for extended periods of time, potentially accumulating unnecessary losses when switching too late or too early. Finally, we note that as F LIP F LOP is a sophisticated algorithm speci?cally designed for balancing the performance of A DA H EDGE and FTL in the expert setting, we cannot reasonably hope to beat its performance in every respect by using our general-purpose algorithm. Notice however that the analysis of F LIP F LOP is dif?cult to generalize to other learning settings such as the ones we discuss in the sections below. Comparison with D-P ROD. In the expert setting, we can also use a straightforward modi?cation of the D-P ROD algorithm originally proposed by Even-Dar et al. [9]: This variant of P ROD includes the benchmark B in ?N as an additional expert and performs P ROD updates for each base expert using the difference?between the expert and benchmark losses. While the worst-case regret of this algorithm is of O( C log C log N ), which is asymptotically inferior to the guarantees given by For instance, in a situation where the Thm. 2, D-P ROD also has its merits in some special cases. ? total loss of FTL and the regret of A DA H EDGE are both ?( T ), D-P ROD guarantees a regret of ? O(T 1/4 ) while the (A, B)-P ROD guarantee remains O( T ). 2 In fact, the worst case for our bound is realized when C = ?(T ), which is precisely the case when A DA H EDGE has excellent performance as it will be seen in Sect. 4. 3 While one can parametrize F LIP F LOP so as to decrease the gap between these bounds, the bound on LT (F LIP F LOP) is always going to be linear in RT (F LIP F LOP, x). 5 3.2 Tracking the best expert We now turn to the problem of tracking the best expert, where the goal of the learner is to control the regret against the best ?xed strategy that is allowed to change its prediction at most K times during the entire decision process (see, e.g., [18, 14]). The regret of an algorithm A producing predictions a1 , . . . , aT against an arbitrary sequence of decisions y1:T ? S T is de?ned as RT (A, y1:T ) = T ? ? t=1 ? ft (at ) ? ft (yt ) . Regret bounds in this setting typically depend on the complexity of the sequence y1:T as measured by the number decision switches C(y1:T ) = {t ? {2, . . . , T } : yt ?= yt?1 }. For example, a properly HARE (FS) that tuned version of the ?F IXED -S? ? algorithm of Herbster and Warmuth [18] guarantees ? RT (FS, y1:T ) = O C(y1:T ) T log N . This upper bound can be tightened to O( KT log N ) when the learner knows an upper bound K on the complexity of y1:T . While this bound is unimprovable in general, one might wonder if it is possible to achieve better performance when the loss sequence is easy. This precise question was posed very recently as a COLT open problem by Warmuth and Koolen [24]. The generality of our approach allows us to solve their open problem by using (A, B)-P ROD as a master algorithm to combine an opportunistic strategy with a principled learning algorithm. The following theorem states the performance of the (A, B)-P ROD-based algorithm. Theorem 3. Let S = ?N , F = [0, 1]N and y1:T be any sequence in S with known complexity K = C(y1:T ). Running (A, B)-P ROD with an appropriately tuned instance of A = FS (see [18]), with the parameter setting suggested in Corollary 1 simultaneously guarantees ? ? ? ? ? RT (A, B)-P ROD, y1:T ? RT (FS, y1:T ) + 2 C log C = O( KT log N ) + 2 C log C for any x ? S and ? ? RT (A, B)-P ROD, B ? 2 log 2. against any assignment of the loss sequence. The remaining problem is then to ?nd a benchmark that works well on ?easy? problems, notably when the losses are i.i.d. in K (unknown) segments of the rounds 1, . . . , T . Out of the strategies suggested by Warmuth and Koolen [24], we analyze a windowed variant of FTL (referred to as FTL(w)) that bases its decision at time t on losses observed in the time window [t ? w ? 1, t ? 1] and ?t?1 picks expert bt = arg minx??N x? s=t?w?1 ?s . The next proposition (proved in the appendix) gives a performance guarantee for FTL(w) with an optimal parameter setting. Proposition 1. Assume that there exists a partition of [1, T ] into K intervals such that the losses are generated i.i.d. within each interval. Furthermore, assume that the expectation of the loss of the best expert within each interval ?is at least ? away from the expected loss of all other experts. Then, ? setting w = 4 log(N T /K)/? 2 , the regret of FTL(w) is upper bounded for any y1:T as ? ? 4K E RT (FTL(w), y1:T ) ? 2 log(N T /K) + 2K, ? where the expectation is taken with respect to the distribution of the losses. 3.3 Online convex optimization Here we consider the problem of online convex optimization (OCO), where S is a convex and closed subset of Rd and F is the family of convex functions on S. In this setting, if we assume that the loss functions are smooth (see [25]), an appropriately tuned version of the online gradient descent ? (OGD) is known to achieve a regret of O( T ). As shown by Hazan et al. [17], if we additionally assume that the environment plays strongly convex loss functions and tune the parameters of the algorithm accordingly, the same algorithm can be used to guarantee an improved regret of O(log T ). Furthermore, they also show that FTL enjoys essentially the same guarantees. The question whether the two guarantees can be combined was studied by Bartlett et al. [4], who present the adaptive online gradient descent (AOGD) algorithm that guarantees O(log T ) regret when ? the aggregated ?t loss functions Ft = s=1 fs are strongly convex for all t, while retaining the O( T ) bounds if this is not the case. The next theorem shows that we can replace their complicated analysis by our general argument and show essentially the same guarantees. 6 Theorem 4. Let S be a convex closed subset of Rd and F be the family of smooth convex functions on S. Running (A, B)-P ROD with an appropriately tuned instance of A = OGD (see [25]) and B = FTL, with the parameter setting suggested in Corollary 1 simultaneously guarantees ? ? ? ? ? RT (A, B)-P ROD, x ? RT (OGD, x) + 2 C log C = O( T ) + 2 C log C for any x ? S and ? ? RT (A, B)-P ROD, FTL ? 2 log 2. against any assignment of the loss sequence. In particular, this implies that ? ? RT (A, B)-P ROD, x = O(log T ) if the loss functions are strongly convex. ? Similar to the previous settings, at the cost of an additional regret of O( T log T ) in the worst case, (A, B)-P ROD successfully adapts to the ?easy? loss sequences, which in this case corresponds to strongly convex functions, on which it achieves a O(log T ) regret. 3.4 Learning with two-points-bandit feedback We consider the multi-armed bandit problem with two-point feedback, where we assume that in each round t, the learner picks one arm It in the decision set S = {1, 2, . . . , K} and also has the possibility to choose and observe the loss of another arm Jt . The learner suffers the loss ft (It ). Unlike the settings considered in the previous sections, the learner only gets to observe the loss function for arms It and Jt . This is a special case of the partial-information game recently studied by Seldin et al. [21]. A similar model has also been studied as a simpli?ed version of online convex optimization with partial feedback [1]. While this setting does not entirely conform to our assumptions concerning A and B, observe that a hedging strategy C de?ned over A and B only requires access to the losses suffered by the two algorithms and not the entire loss functions. Formally, we give A and B access to the decision set S, and C to S 2 . The hedging strategy C selects the pair (It , Jt ) based on the arms suggested by A and B as: ? (at , bt ) with probability st , (It , Jt ) = (bt , at ) with probability 1 ? st . ? , thus the regret bound of (A, B)The probability st is a well-de?ned deterministic function of Ht?1 P ROD can be directly applied. In this case, ?easy? problems correspond to i.i.d. loss sequences (with a ?xed gap between the expected losses), for which the UCB algorithm of Auer et al. [2] is guaranteed to have a O(log T ) regret, while on??hard? problems, we can rely on the E XP 3 algorithm of Auer et al. [3] which suffers a regret of O( T K) in the worst case. The next theorem gives the performance guarantee of (A, B)-P ROD when combining UCB and E XP 3. Theorem 5. Consider the multi-armed bandit problem with K arms and two-point feedback. Running (A, B)-P ROD with an appropriately tuned instance of A = E XP 3 (see [3]) and B = UCB (see [2]), with the parameter setting suggested in Corollary 1 simultaneously guarantees ? ? ? ? ? RT (A, B)-P ROD, x ? RT (E XP 3, x) + 2 C log C = O( T K log K) + 2 C log C for any arm x ? {1, 2, . . . , K} and ? ? RT (A, B)-P ROD, UCB ? 2 log 2. against any assignment of the loss sequence. In particular, if the losses are generated in an i.i.d. fashion and there exists a unique best arm x? ? S, then ?? ? ? E RT (A, B)-P ROD, x = O(log T ), where the expectation is taken with respect to the distribution of the losses. This result shows that even in the multi-armed bandit setting, we can achieve nearly the best performance in both ?hard? and ?easy? problems given that we are allowed to pull two arms at the time. This result is to be contrasted with those of Bubeck and Slivkins [5], later improved by Seldin and Slivkins [22], who consider the standard one-point feedback setting. The algorithm of Seldin and Slivkins, called E XP 3++ is a variant of the E XP 3 algorithm that simultaneously ? guarantees O(log2 T ) regret in stochastic environments while retaining the regret bound of O( T K log K) in the adversarial setting. While our result holds under stronger assumptions, Thm. 5 shows that (A, B)-P ROD is not restricted to work only in full-information settings. Once again, we note that such a result cannot be obtained by simply combining the predictions of UCB and E XP 3 by a generic learning algorithm as H EDGE. 7 Empirical Results Setting 1 Setting 2 10 FTL Adahe dge Fl ipFlop D - Pr od ( A, B ) - Pr od ( A, B ) - He dge 50 8 Regret Regret 40 30 20 10 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Time Setting 3 10 FTL Adahe dge Fl ipFlop D - Pr od ( A, B ) - Pr od ( A, B ) - He dge 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 Setting 4 5 FTL Adahe dge Fl ipFlop D - Pr od ( A, B ) - Pr od ( A, B ) - He dge 9 Regret 60 4 3.5 3 5 2.5 4 4 2 3 3 1.5 2 2 1 1 1 0.5 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Time FTL Adahe dge FlipFlop D - Pr od ( A, B ) - Pr od ( A, B ) - He dge 4.5 Regret 4 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Time 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Time Figure 3: Hand tuned loss sequences from de Rooij et al. [8] We study the performance of (A, B)-P ROD in the experts setting to verify the theoretical results of Thm. 2, show the importance of the (A, B)-P ROD weight update rule and compare to F LIP F LOP. We report the performance of FTL, A DA H EDGE, F LIP F LOP, and B = FTL and A = A DA H EDGE for the anytime versions of D-P ROD, (A, B)-P ROD, and (A, B)-H EDGE, a variant of (A, B)-P ROD where an exponential weighting scheme is used. We consider the two-expert settings de?ned by de Rooij et al. [8] where deterministic loss sequences of T = 2000 steps are designed to obtain different con?gurations. (We refer to [8] for a detailed speci?cation of the settings.) The results are reported in Figure 3. The ?rst remark is that the performance of (A, B)-P ROD is always comparable with the best algorithm between A and B. In setting 1, although FTL suffers linear regret, (A, B)-P ROD rapidly adjusts the weights towards A DA H EDGE and ?nally achieves the same order of performance. In settings 2 and 3, ? the situation is reversed since FTL has a constant regret, while A DA H EDGE has a regret of order of T . In this case, after a short initial phase where (A, B)-P ROD has an increasing regret, it stabilizes on the same performance as FTL. In setting 4 both A DA H EDGE and FTL have a constant regret and (A, B)-P ROD attains the same performance. These results match the behavior predicted in the bound of Thm. 2, which guarantees that the regret of (A, B)-P ROD is roughly the minimum of FTL and A DA H EDGE. As discussed in Sect. 2, the P ROD update rule used in (A, B)-P ROD plays a crucial role to obtain a constant regret against the benchmark, while other rules, such as the exponential update used in (A, B)-H EDGE, may fail in ?nding a suitable mix between A and B. As illustrated in settings 2 and 3, (A, B)-H EDGE suffers a regret similar to A DA H EDGE and it fails to take advantage of the good performance of FTL, which has a constant regret. In setting 1, (A, B)-H EDGE performs as well as (A, B)-P ROD because FTL is constantly worse than A DA H EDGE and its corresponding weight is decreased very quickly, while in setting 4 both FTL and A DA H EDGE achieves a constant regret and so does (A, B)-H EDGE. Finally, we compare (A, B)-P ROD and F LIP F LOP. As discussed in Sect. 2, the two algorithms share similar theoretical guarantees with potential advantages of one on the other depending on the speci?c setting. In particular, F LIP F LOP performs slightly better in settings 2, 3, and 4, whereas (A, B)-P ROD obtains smaller regret in setting 1, where the constants in the F LIP F LOP bound show their teeth. While it is not possible to clearly rank the two algorithms, (A, B)-P ROD clearly avoids the pathological behavior exhibited by F LIP F LOP in setting 1. Finally, we note that the anytime version of D-P ROD is slightly better than (A, B)-P ROD, but no consistent difference is observed. 5 Conclusions We introduced (A, B)-P ROD, a general-purpose algorithm which receives a learning algorithm A and a benchmark strategy B as inputs and guarantees the best regret between the two. We showed that whenever A is a learning algorithm with worst-case performance guarantees and B is an opportunistic strategy exploiting a speci?c structure within the loss sequence, we obtain an algorithm which smoothly adapts to ?easy? and ?hard? problems. We applied this principle to a number of different settings of online optimization, matching the performance of existing ad-hoc solutions (e.g., AOGD in convex optimization) and solving the open problem of learning on ?easy? loss sequences in the tracking the best expert setting proposed by Warmuth and Koolen [24]. We point out that the general structure of (A, B)-P ROD could be instantiated in many other settings and scenarios in online optimization, such as learning with switching costs [12, 15], and, more generally, in any problem where the objective is to improve over a given benchmark strategy. The main open problem is the extension of our techniques to work with one-point bandit feedback. Acknowledgements This work was supported by the French Ministry of Higher Education and Research and by the European Community?s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement 270327 (project CompLACS), and by FUI project Herm`es. 8 References [1] Agarwal, A., Dekel, O., and Xiao, L. (2010). Optimal algorithms for online convex optimization with multipoint bandit feedback. In Kalai, A. and Mohri, M., editors, Proceedings of the 23rd Annual Conference on Learning Theory (COLT 2010), pages 28?40. [2] Auer, P., Cesa-Bianchi, N., and Fischer, P. (2002a). Finite-time analysis of the multiarmed bandit problem. Mach. Learn., 47(2-3):235?256. [3] Auer, P., Cesa-Bianchi, N., Freund, Y., and Schapire, R. E. (2002b). The nonstochastic multiarmed bandit problem. SIAM J. Comput., 32(1):48?77. [4] Bartlett, P. L., Hazan, E., and Rakhlin, A. (2008). Adaptive online gradient descent. In Platt, J. C., Koller, D., Singer, Y., and Roweis, S. T., editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 20, pages 65?72. Curran Associates. (December 3?6, 2007). [5] Bubeck, S. and Slivkins, A. (2012). The best of both worlds: Stochastic and adversarial bandits. In COLT, pages 42.1?42.23. [6] Cesa-Bianchi, N. and Lugosi, G. (2006). Prediction, Learning, and Games. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA. [7] Cesa-Bianchi, N., Mansour, Y., and Stoltz, G. (2007). Improved second-order bounds for prediction with expert advice. Machine Learning, 66(2-3):321?352. [8] de Rooij, S., van Erven, T., Gr?unwald, P. D., and Koolen, W. M. (2014). Follow the leader if you can, hedge if you must. Accepted to the Journal of Machine Learning Research. [9] Even-Dar, E., Kearns, M., Mansour, Y., and Wortman, J. (2008). Regret to the best vs. regret to the average. Machine Learning, 72(1-2):21?37. [10] Freund, Y. and Schapire, R. E. (1997). A decision-theoretic generalization of on-line learning and an application to boosting. Journal of Computer and System Sciences, 55:119?139. [11] Gaillard, P., Stoltz, G., and van Erven, T. (2014). A second-order bound with excess losses. In Balcan, M.-F. and Szepesv?ari, Cs., editors, Proceedings of The 27th Conference on Learning Theory, volume 35 of JMLR Proceedings, pages 176?196. JMLR.org. [12] Geulen, S., V?ocking, B., and Winkler, M. (2010). Regret minimization for online buffering problems using the weighted majority algorithm. In COLT, pages 132?143. [13] Grunwald, P., Koolen, W. M., and Rakhlin, A., editors (2013). NIPS Workshop on ?Learning faster from easy data?. [14] Gy?orgy, A., Linder, T., and Lugosi, G. (2012). Ef?cient tracking of large classes of experts. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 58(11):6709?6725. [15] Gy?orgy, A. and Neu, G. (2013). Near-optimal rates for limited-delay universal lossy source coding. Submitted to the IEEE Transactions on Information Theory. [16] Hannan, J. (1957). Approximation to Bayes risk in repeated play. Contributions to the theory of games, 3:97?139. [17] Hazan, E., Agarwal, A., and Kale, S. (2007). Logarithmic regret algorithms for online convex optimization. Machine Learning, 69:169?192. [18] Herbster, M. and Warmuth, M. (1998). Tracking the best expert. Machine Learning, 32:151?178. [19] Kalai, A. and Vempala, S. (2005). Ef?cient algorithms for online decision problems. Journal of Computer and System Sciences, 71:291?307. [20] Littlestone, N. and Warmuth, M. (1994). The weighted majority algorithm. Information and Computation, 108:212?261. [21] Seldin, Y., Bartlett, P., Crammer, K., and Abbasi-Yadkori, Y. (2014). Prediction with limited advice and multiarmed bandits with paid observations. In Proceedings of the 30th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2013), page 280287. [22] Seldin, Y. and Slivkins, A. (2014). One practical algorithm for both stochastic and adversarial bandits. In Proceedings of the 30th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2014), pages 1287?1295. [23] Vovk, V. (1990). Aggregating strategies. In Proceedings of the third annual workshop on Computational learning theory (COLT), pages 371?386. [24] Warmuth, M. and Koolen, W. (2014). Shifting experts on easy data. COLT 2014 open problem. [25] Zinkevich, M. (2003). Online convex programming and generalized in?nitesimal gradient ascent. In Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML). 9
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Learning Mixtures of Ranking Models? Avrim Blum Carnegie Mellon University avrim@cs.cmu.edu Pranjal Awasthi Princeton University pawashti@cs.princeton.edu Aravindan Vijayaraghavan New York University vijayara@cims.nyu.edu Or Sheffet Harvard University osheffet@seas.harvard.edu Abstract This work concerns learning probabilistic models for ranking data in a heterogeneous population. The specific problem we study is learning the parameters of a Mallows Mixture Model. Despite being widely studied, current heuristics for this problem do not have theoretical guarantees and can get stuck in bad local optima. We present the first polynomial time algorithm which provably learns the parameters of a mixture of two Mallows models. A key component of our algorithm is a novel use of tensor decomposition techniques to learn the top-k prefix in both the rankings. Before this work, even the question of identifiability in the case of a mixture of two Mallows models was unresolved. 1 Introduction Probabilistic modeling of ranking data is an extensively studied problem with a rich body of past work [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9]. Ranking using such models has applications in a variety of areas ranging from understanding user preferences in electoral systems and social choice theory, to more modern learning tasks in online web search, crowd-sourcing and recommendation systems. Traditionally, models for generating ranking data consider a homogeneous group of users with a central ranking (permutation) ? ? over a set of n elements or alternatives. (For instance, ? ? might correspond to a ?ground-truth ranking? over a set of movies.) Each individual user generates her own ranking as a noisy version of this one central ranking and independently from other users. The most popular ranking model of choice is the Mallows model [1], where in addition to ? ? there is also a ? scaling parameter ? ? (0, 1). Each user picks her ranking ? w.p. proportional to ?dkt (?,? ) where 1 dkt (?) denotes the Kendall-Tau distance between permutations (see Section 2). We denote such a model as Mn (?, ? ? ). The Mallows model and its generalizations have received much attention from the statistics, political science and machine learning communities, relating this probabilistic model to the long-studied work about voting and social choice [10, 11]. From a machine learning perspective, the problem is to find the parameters of the model ? the central permutation ? ? and the scaling parameter ?, using independent samples from the distribution. There is a large body of work [4, 6, 5, 7, 12] providing efficient algorithms for learning the parameters of a Mallows model. ? This work was supported in part by NSF grants CCF-1101215, CCF-1116892, the Simons Institute, and a Simons Foundation Postdoctoral fellowhsip. Part of this work was performed while the 3rd author was at the Simons Institute for the Theory of Computing at the University of California, Berkeley and the 4th author was at CMU. 1 In fact, it was shown [1] that this model is the result of the following simple (inefficient) algorithm: rank 1 every pair of elements randomly and independently s.t. with probability 1+? they agree with ? ? and with  n ? probability 1+? they don?t; if all 2 pairs agree on a single ranking ? output this ranking, otherwise resample. 1 In many scenarios, however, the population is heterogeneous with multiple groups of people, each with their own central ranking [2]. For instance, when ranking movies, the population may be divided into two groups corresponding to men and women; with men ranking movies with one underlying central permutation, and women ranking movies with another underlying central permutation. This naturally motivates the problem of learning a mixture of multiple Mallows models for rankings, a problem that has received significant attention [8, 13, 3, 4]. Heuristics like the EM algorithm have been applied to learn the model parameters of a mixture of Mallows models [8]. The problem has also been studied under distributional assumptions over the parameters, e.g. weights derived from a Dirichlet distribution [13]. However, unlike the case of a single Mallows model, algorithms with provable guarantees have remained elusive for this problem. In this work we give the first polynomial time algorithm that provably learns a mixture of two Mallows models. The input to our algorithm consists of i.i.d random rankings (samples), with each ranking drawn with probability w1 from a Mallows model Mn (?1 , ?1 ), and with probability w2 (= 1 ? w1 ) from a different model Mn (?2 , ?2 ). Informal Theorem. Given sufficiently many i.i.d samples drawn from a mixture of two Mallows models, we can learn the central permutations ?1 , ?2 exactly and parameters ?1 , ?2 , w1 , w2 up to 1 1 -accuracy in time poly(n, (min{w1 , w2 })?1 , ?1 (1?? , , ?1 ). 1 ) ?2 (1??2 ) It is worth mentioning that, to the best of our knowledge, prior to this work even the question of identifiability was unresolved for a mixture of two Mallows models; given infinitely many i.i.d. samples generated from a mixture of two distinct Mallow models with parameters {w1 , ?1 , ?1 , w2 , ?2 , ?2 } (with ?1 6= ?2 or ?1 6= ?2 ), could there be a different set of parameters {w10 , ?01 , ?10 , w20 , ?02 , ?20 } which explains the data just as well. Our result shows that this is not the case and the mixture is uniquely identifiable given polynomially many samples. Intuition and a Na??ve First Attempt. It is evident that having access to sufficiently many random samples allows one to learn a single Mallows model. Let the elements in the permutations be denoted as {e1 , e2 , . . . , en }. In a single Mallows model, the probability of element ei going to position j (for j ? [n]) drops off exponentially as one goes farther from the true position of ei [12]. So by assigning each ei the most frequent position in our sample, we can find the central ranking ? ? . The above mentioned intuition suggests the following clustering based approach to learn a mixture of two Mallows models ? look at the distribution of the positions where element ei appears. If the distribution has 2 clearly separated ?peaks? then they will correspond to the positions of ei in the central permutations. Now, dividing the samples according to ei being ranked in a high or a low position is likely to give us two pure (or almost pure) subsamples, each one coming from a single Mallows model. We can then learn the individual models separately. More generally, this strategy works when the two underlying permutations ?1 and ?2 are far apart which can be formulated as a separation condition.2 Indeed, the above-mentioned intuition works only under strong separator conditions: otherwise, the observation regarding the distribution of positions of element ei is no longer true 3 . For example, if ?1 ranks ei in position k and ?2 ranks ei in position k + 2, it is likely that the most frequent position of ei is k + 1, which differs from ei ?s position in either permutations! Handling arbitrary permutations. Learning mixture models under no separation requirements is a challenging task. To the best of our knowledge, the only polynomial time algorithm known is for the case of a mixture of a constant number of Gaussians [17, 18]. Other works, like the recent developments that use tensor based methods for learning mixture models without distance-based separation condition [19, 20, 21] still require non-degeneracy conditions and/or work for specific sub cases (e.g. spherical Gaussians). These sophisticated tensor methods form a key component in our algorithm for learning a mixture of two Mallows models. This is non-trivial as learning over rankings poses challenges which are not present in other widely studied problems such as mixture of Gaussians. For the case of Gaussians, spectral techniques have been extremely successful [22, 16, 19, 21]. Such techniques rely on estimating the covariances and higher order moments in terms of the model parameters to detect structure and dependencies. On the other hand, in the mixture of Mallows models problem there is 2 Identifying a permutation ? over n elements with a n-dimensional vector (?(i))i , this separationcondition ? (min{w1 , w2 })?1 ? (min{log(1/?1 ), log(1/?2 )}))?1 . can be roughly stated as k?1 ? ?2 k? = ? 3 Much like how other mixture models are solvable under separation conditions, see [14, 15, 16]. 2 no ?natural? notion of a second/third moment. A key contribution of our work is defining analogous notions of moments which can be represented succinctly in terms of the model parameters. As we later show, this allows us to use tensor based techniques to get a good starting solution. Overview of Techniques. One key difficulty in arguing about the Mallows model is the lack of closed form expressions for basic propositions like ?the probability that the i-th element of ? ? is ranked in position j.? Our first observation is that the distribution of a given element appearing at the top, i.e. the first position, behaves nicely. Given an element e whose rank in the central ranking ? ? is i, the probability that a ranking sampled from a Mallows model ranks e as the first element is ? ?i?1 . A length n vector consisting of these probabilities is what we define as the first moment vector of the Mallows model. Clearly by sorting the coordinate of the first moment vector, one can recover the underlying central permutation and estimate ?. Going a step further, consider any two elements which are in positions i, j respectively in ? ? . We show that the probability that a ranking sampled from a Mallows model ranks {i, j} in (any of the 2! possible ordering of) the first two positions is ? f (?)?i+j?2 . We call the n ? n matrix of these probabilities as the second moment matrix of the model (analogous to the covariance matrix). Similarly, we define the 3rd moment tensor as the probability that any 3 elements appear in positions {1, 2, 3}. We show in the next section that in the case of a mixture of two Mallows models, the 3rd moment tensor defined this way has a rank-2 decomposition, with each rank-1 term corresponds to the first moment vector of each of two Mallows models. This motivates us to use tensor-based techniques to estimate the first moment vectors of the two Mallows models, thus learning the models? parameters. The above mentioned strategy would work if one had access to infinitely many samples from the mixture model. But notice that the probabilities in the first-moment vectors decay exponentially, so by using polynomially many samples we can only recover a prefix of length ? log1/? n from both rankings. This forms the first part of our algorithm which outputs good estimates of the mixture weights, scaling parameters ?1 , ?2 and prefixes of a certain size from both the rankings. Armed with w1 , w2 and these two prefixes we next proceed to recover the full permutations ?1 and ?2 . In order to do this, we take two new fresh batches of samples. On the first batch, we estimate the probability that element e appears in position j for all e and j. On the second batch, which is noticeably larger than the first, we estimate the probability that e appears in position j conditioned on a carefully chosen element e? appearing as the first element. We show that this conditioning is almost equivalent to sampling from the same mixture model but with rescaled weights w10 and w20 . The two estimations allow us to set a system of two linear equations in two variables: f (1) (e ? j) ? the probability of element e appearing in position j in ?1 , and f (2) (e ? j) ? the same probability for ?2 . Solving this linear system we find the position of e in each permutation. The above description contains most of the core ideas involved in the algorithm. We need two additional components. First, notice that the 3rd moment tensor is not well defined for triplets (i, j, k), when i, j, k are not all distinct and hence cannot be estimated from sampled data. To get around this barrier we consider a random partition of our element-set into 3 disjoint subsets. The actual tensor we work with consists only of triplets (i, j, k) where the indices belong to different partitions. Secondly, we have to handle the case where tensor based-technique fails, i.e. when the 3rd moment tensor isn?t full-rank. This is a degenerate case. Typically, tensor based approaches for other problems cannot handle such degenerate cases. However, in the case of the Mallows mixture model, we show that such a degenerate case provides a lot of useful information about the problem. In particular, it must hold that ?1 ' ?2 , and ?1 and ?2 are fairly close ? one is almost a cyclic shift of the other. To show this we use a characterization of the when the tensor decomposition is unique (for tensors of rank 2), and we handle such degenerate cases separately. Altogether, we find the mixture model?s parameters with no non-degeneracy conditions. Lower bound under the pairwise access model. Given that a single Mallows model can be learned using only pairwise comparisons, a very restricted access to each sample, it is natural to ask, ?Is it possible to learn a mixture of Mallows models from pairwise queries??. This next example shows that we cannot hope to do this even for a mixture of two Mallows models. Fix some ? and ? and assume our sample is taken using mixing weights of w1 = w2 = 21 from the two Mallows models Mn (?, ?) and Mn (?, rev(?)), where rev(?) indicates the reverse permutation (the first element of ? is the last of rev(?), the second is the next-to-last, etc.) . Consider two elements, e and e0 . Using only pairwise comparisons, we have that it is just as likely to rank e > e0 as it is to rank e0 > e and so this case cannot be learned regardless of the sample size. 3 3-wise queries. We would also like to stress that our algorithm does not need full access to the sampled rankings and instead will work with access to certain 3-wise queries. Observe that the first part of our algorithm, where we recover the top elements in each of the two central permutations, only uses access to the top 3 elements in each sample. In that sense, we replace the pairwise query ?do you prefer e to e0 ?? with a 3-wise query: ?what are your top 3 choices?? Furthermore, the second part of the algorithm (where we solve a set of 2 linear equations) can be altered to support 3-wise queries of the (admittedly, somewhat unnatural) form ?if e? is your top choice, do you prefer e to e0 ?? For ease of exposition, we will assume full-access to the sampled rankings. Future Directions. Several interesting directions come out of this work. A natural next step is to generalize our results to learn a mixture of k Mallows models for k > 2. We believe that most of these techniques can be extended to design algorithms that take poly(n, 1/)k time. It would also be interesting to get algorithms for learning a mixture of k Mallows models which run in time poly(k, n), perhaps in an appropriate smoothed analysis setting [23] or under other non-degeneracy assumptions. Perhaps, more importantly, our result indicates that tensor based methods which have been very popular for learning problems, might also be a powerful tool for tackling ranking-related problems in the fields of machine learning, voting and social choice. Organization. In Section 2 we give the formal definition of the Mallow model and of the problem statement, as well as some useful facts about the Mallow model. Our algorithm and its numerous subroutines are detailed in Section 3. In Section 4 we experimentally compare our algorithm with a popular EM based approach for the problem. The complete details of our algorithms and proofs are included in the supplementary material. 2 Notations and Properties of the Mallows Model Let Un = {e1 , e2 , . . . , en } be a set of n distinct elements. We represent permutations over the elements in Un through their indices [n]. (E.g., ? = (n, n ? 1, . . . , 1) represents the permutation (en , en?1 , . . . , e1 ).) Let pos? (ei ) = ? ?1 (i) refer to the position of ei in the permutation ?. We omit the subscript ? when the permutation ? is clear from context. For any two permutations ?, ? 0 we denote dkt (?, ? 0 ) as the Kendall-Tau distance [24] between them (number of pairwise inversions i between ?, ? 0 ). Given some ? ? (0, 1) we denote Zi (?) = 1?? 1?? , and partition function Z[n] (?) = P dkt (?,?0 ) Qn = i=1 Zi (?) (see Section 6 in the supplementary material). ?? Definition 2.1. [Mallows model (Mn (?, ?0 )).] Given a permutation ?0 on [n] and a parameter ? ? (0, 1),4 , a Mallows model is a permutation generation process that returns permutation ? w.p. Pr (?) = ?dkt (?,?0 ) /Z[n] (?) In Section 6 we show many useful properties of the Mallows model which we use repeatedly throughout this work. We believe that they provide an insight to Mallows model, and we advise the reader to go through them. We proceed with the main definition. Definition 2.2. [Mallows Mixture model w1 Mn (?1 , ?1 ) ? w2 Mn (?2 , ?2 ).] Given parameters w1 , w2 ? (0, 1) s.t. w1 + w2 = 1, parameters ?1 , ?2 ? (0, 1) and two permutations ?1 , ?2 , we call a mixture of two Mallows models to be the process that with probability w1 generates a permutation from M (?1 , ?1 ) and with probability w2 generates a permutation from M (?2 , ?2 ). Our next definition is crucial for our application of tensor decomposition techniques. Definition 2.3. [Representative vectors.] The representative vector of a Mallows model is a vector where for every i ? [n], the ith-coordinate is ?pos? (ei )?1 /Zn . The expression ?pos? (ei )?1 /Zn is precisely the probability that a permutation generated by a model Mn (?, ?) ranks element ei at the first position (proof deferred to the supplementary material). Given that our focus is on learning a mixture of two Mallows models Mn (?1 , ?1 ) and Mn (?2 , ?2 ), we denote x as the representative vector of the first model, and y as the representative vector of the latter. Note that retrieving the vectors x and y exactly implies that we can learn the permutations ?1 and ?2 and the values of ?1 , ?2 . 4 It is also common to parameterize using ? ? R+ where ? = e?? . For small ? we have (1 ? ?) ? ?. 4 Finally, let f (i ? j) be the probability that element ei goes to position j according to mixture model. Similarly f (1) (i ? j) be the corresponding probabilities according to Mallows model M1 and M2 respectively. Hence, f (i ? j) = w1 f (1) (i ? j) + w2 f (2) (i ? j). Tensors: Given two vectors u ? Rn1 , v ? Rn2 , we define u?v ? Rn1 ?n2 as the matrix uv T . Given also z ? Rn3 then u ? v ? z denotes the 3-tensor (of rank- 1) whose (i, j, k)-th coordinate is ui vj zk . P A tensor T ? Rn1 ?n2 ?n3 has a rank-r decomposition if T can be expressed as i?[r] ui ? vi ? zi where ui ? Rn1 , vi ? Rn2 , zi ? Rn3 . Given two vectors u, v ? Rn , we use (u; v) to denote the n ? 2 matrix that is obtained with u and v as columns. We now define first, second and third order statistics (frequencies) that serve as our proxies for the first, second and third order moments. Definition 2.4. [Moments] Given a Mallows mixture model, we denote for every i, j, k ? [n] ? Pi = Pr (pos (ei ) = 1) is the probability that element ei is ranked at the first position ? Pij = Pr (pos ({ei , ej }) = {1, 2}), is the probability that ei , ej are ranked at the first two positions (in any order) ? Pijk = Pr (pos ({ei , ej , ek }) = {1, 2, 3}) is the probability that ei , ej , ek are ranked at the first three positions (in any order). For convenience, let P represent the set of quantities (Pi , Pij , Pijk )1?i<j<k?n . These can be estimated up to any inverse polynomial accuracy using only polynomial samples. The following simple, yet crucial lemma relates P to the vectors x and y, and demonstrates why these statistics and representative vectors are ideal for tensor decomposition. Lemma 2.5. Given a mixture w1 M (?1 , ?1 ) ? w2 M (?2 , ?2 ) let x, y and P be as defined above. 1. For any i it holds that Pi = w1 xi + w2 yi . 2. Denote c2 (?) = w2 c2 (?2 )yi yj . Zn (?) 1+? Zn?1 (?) ? . Then for any i 6= j it holds that Pij = w1 c2 (?1 )xi xj + Z 2 (?) 2 3 1+2?+2? +? n . Then for any distinct i, j, k it holds that 3. Denote c3 (?) = Zn?1 (?)Z ?3 n?2 (?) Pijk = w1 c3 (?1 )xi xj xk + w2 c3 (?2 )yi yj yk . Clearly, if i = j then Pij = 0, and if i, j, k are not all distinct then Pijk = 0. In addition, in Lemma 13.2 in the supplementary material we prove the bounds c2 (?) = O(1/?) and c3 (?) = O(??3 ). Partitioning Indices: Given a partition of [n] into Sa , Sb , Sc , let x(a) , y (a) be the representative vectors x, y restricted to the indices (rows) in Sa (similarly for Sb , Sc ). Then the 3-tensor T (abc) ? (Pijk )i?Sa ,j?Sb ,k?Sc = w1 c3 (?1 )x(a) ? x(b) ? x(c) + w2 c3 (?2 )y (a) ? y (b) ? y (c) . This tensor has a rank-2 decomposition, with one rank-1 term for each Mallows model. Finally for convenience we define the matrix M = (x; y), and similarly define the matrices Ma = (x(a) ; y (a) ), Mb = (x(b) ; y (b) ), Mc = (x(c) ; y (c) ). Error Dependency and Error Polynomials. Our algorithm gives an estimate of the parameters w, ? that we learn in the first stage, and we use these estimates to figure out the entire central rankings in the second stage. The following lemma essentially allows us to assume instead of estimations, we have access to the true values of w and ?. Lemma 2.6. For every ? > 0 there exists a function f (n, ?, ?) s.t. for every n, ? and ??satisfying ? ? < ? ? kTV ? ?. |???| we have that the total-variation distance satisfies kM (?, ?)?M ?, f (n,?,?) For the ease of presentation, we do not optimize constants or polynomial factors in all parameters. In our analysis, we show how our algorithm is robust (in a polynomial sense) to errors in various statistics, to prove that we can learn with polynomial samples. However, the simplification when there are no errors (infinite samples) still carries many of the main ideas in the algorithm ? this in fact shows the identifiability of the model, which was not known previously. 5 3 Algorithm Overview Algorithm 1 L EARN M IXTURES OF TWO M ALLOWS MODELS, Input: a set S of N samples from w1 M (?1 , ?1 ) ? w2 M (?2 , ?2 ), Accuracy parameters , 2 . 1. Let Pb be the empirical estimate of P on samples in S. 2. Repeat O(log n) times: (a) Partition [n] randomly into Sa , Sb and Sc . Let T (abc) = Pbijk  i?Sa ,j?Sb ,k?Sc (abc) . (b) Run T ENSOR -D ECOMP from [25, 26, 23] to get a decomposition of T = u(a) ? u(b) ? (c) (a) (b) (c) u +v ?v ?v . (c) If min{?2 (u(a) ; v (a) ), ?2 (u(b) ; v (b) ), ?2 (u(c) ; v (c) )} > 2 (In the non-degenerate case these matrices are far from being rank-1 matrices in the sense that their least singular value is bounded away from 0.) b1 , ? b2 and prefixes of the central rankings ?1 0 , ?2 0 ) i. Obtain parameter estimates (w b1 , w b2 , ? from I NFER -T OP - K (Pb , Ma0 , Mb0 , Mc0 ), with Mi0 = (u(i) ; v (i) ) for i ? {a, b, c}. ii. Use R ECOVER -R EST to find the full central rankings ? b1 , ? b2 . b1 , ? b2 , ? Return S UCCESS and output (w b1 , w b2 , ? b1 , ? b2 ). 3. Run H ANDLE D EGENERATE C ASES (Pb ). Our algorithm (Algorithm 1) has two main components. First we invoke a decomposition algorithm [25, 26, 23] over the tensor T (abc) , and retrieve approximations of the two Mallows models? representative vectors which in turn allow us to approximate the weight parameters w1 , w2 , scale parameters ?1 , ?2 , and the top few elements in each central ranking. We then use the inferred parameters to recover the entire rankings ?1 and ?2 . Should the tensor-decomposition fail, we invoke a special procedure to handle such degenerate cases. Our algorithm has the following guarantee. Theorem 3.1. Let w1 M (?1 , ?1 ) ? w2 M (?2 , ?2 ) be a mixture of two Mallows models and let wmin = min{w1 , w2 } and ?max = max{?1 , ?2 } and similarly ?min = min{?1 , ?2 }. Denote w2 (1?? )10 0 = min16n22 ?max . Then, given any 0 <  < 0 , suitably small 2 = poly( n1 , , ?min , wmin ) 2 max   1 1 1 1 1 , , , , i.i.d samples from the mixture model, and N = poly n, min{, 0 } ?1 (1??1 ) ?2 (1??2 ) w1 w2 Algorithm 1 recovers, in poly-time and with probability ? 1 ? n?3 , the model?s parameters with w1 , w2 , ?1 , ?2 recovered up to -accuracy. Next we detail the various subroutines of the algorithm, and give an overview of the analysis for each subroutine. The full analysis is given in the supplementary material. The T ENSOR -D ECOMP Procedure. This procedure is a straight-forward invocation of the algorithm detailed in [25, 26, 23]. This algorithm uses spectral methods to retrieve the two vectors generating the rank-2 tensor T (abc) . This technique works when all factor matrices Ma = (x(a) ; y (a) ), Mb = (x(b) ; y (b) ), Mc = (x(c) ; y (c) ) are well-conditioned. We note that any algorithm that decomposes non-symmetric tensors which have well-conditioned factor matrices, can be used as a black box. Lemma 3.2 (Full rank case). In the conditions of Theorem 3.1, suppose our algorithm picks some partition Sa , Sb , Sc such that the matrices Ma , Mb , Mc are all well-conditioned ? i.e. have ?2 (Ma ), ?2 (Mb ), ?2 (Mc ) ? 02 ? poly( n1 , , 2 , w1 , w2 ) then with high probability, Algorithm T ENSOR D ECOMP of [25] finds Ma0 = (u(a) ; v (a) ), Mb0 = (u(b) ; v (b) ), Mc0 = (u(c) ; v (c) ) such (? ) (? ) that for any ? ? {a, b, c}, we have u(? ) = ?? x(? ) + z1 and v (? ) = ?? y (? ) + z2 ; with (? ) (? ) kz1 k, kz2 k ? poly( n1 , , 2 , wmin ) and, ?2 (M?0 ) > 2 for ? ? {a, b, c}. The I NFER -T OP - K procedure. This procedure uses the output of the tensor-decomposition to retrieve the weights, ??s and the representative vectors. In order to convert u(a) , u(b) , u(c) into an approximation of x(a) , x(b) , x(c) (and similarly with v (a) , v (b) , v (c) and y (a) , y (b) , y (c) ), we need to find a good approximation of the scalars ?a , ?b , ?c . This is done by solving a certain linear system. This also allows us to estimate w b1 , w b2 . Given our approximation of x, it is easy to find ?1 and the top first elements of ?1 ? we sort the coordinates of x, setting ?10 to be the first elements in the sorted 6 vector, and ?1 as the ratio between any two adjacent entries in the sorted vector. We refer the reader to Section 8 in the supplementary material for full details. The R ECOVER -R EST procedure. The algorithm for recovering the remaining entries of the central permutations (Algorithm 2) is more involved. Algorithm 2 R ECOVER -R EST, Input: a set S of N samples from w1 M (?1 , ?1 ) ? w2 M (?2 , ?2 ), parameters w?1 , w?2 , ??1 , ??2 and initial permutations ??1 , ??2 , and accuracy parameter . 1. For elements in ??1 and ??2 , compute representative vectors x ? and y? using estimates ??1 and ??2 . 2. Let |??1 | = r1 , |??2 | = r2 and wlog r1 ? r2 . If there exists an element ei such that pos??1 (ei ) > r1 and pos??2 (ei ) < r2 /2 (or in the symmetric case), then: Let S1 be the subsample with ei ranked in the first position. (a) Learn a single Mallows model on S1 to find ??1 . Given ??1 use dynamic programming to find ??2 3. Let ei? be the first element in ??1 having its probabilities of appearing in first place in ?1 and ?2 differ  ?1 ?(ei? ) ?2 y by at least . Define w ?10 = 1 + w and w ?20 = 1 ? w ?10 . Let S1 be the subsample with ei? w?1 x ?(ei? ) ranked at the first position. 4. For each ei that doesn?t appear in either ? ?1 or ? ?2 and any possible position j it might belong to ? (a) Use S to estimate fi,j = Pr (ei goes to position j), and S1 to estimate f? (i ? j|ei? ? 1) = Pr (ei goes to position j|ei? 7? 1). (b) Solve the system f? (i ? j) f? (i ? j|ei? ? 1) = w?1 f (1) (i ? j) + w?2 f (2) (i ? j) (1) = w ?10 f (1) (2) (i ? j) + w ?20 f (2) (i ? j) 5. To complete ? ?1 assign each ei to position arg maxj {f (1) (i ? j)}. Similarly complete ? ?2 using f (2) (i ? j). Return the two permutations. Algorithm 2 first attempts to find a pivot ? an element ei which appears at a fairly high rank in one permutation, yet does not appear in the other prefix ??2 . Let Eei be the event that a permutation ranks ei at the first position. As ei is a pivot, then PrM1 (Eei ) is noticeable whereas PrM2 (Eei ) is negligible. Hence, conditioning on ei appearing at the first position leaves us with a subsample in which all sampled rankings are generated from the first model. This subsample allows us to easily retrieve the rest of ?1 . Given ?1 , the rest of ?2 can be recovered using a dynamic programming procedure. Refer to the supplementary material for details. The more interesting case is when no such pivot exists, i.e., when the two prefixes of ?1 and ?2 contain almost the same elements. Yet, since we invoke R ECOVER -R EST after successfully calling T ENSOR -D ECOMP , it must hold that the distance between the obtained representative vectors x ? and y? is noticeably large. Hence some element ei? satisfies |? x(ei? ) ? y?(ei? )| > , and we proceed by setting up a linear system. To find the complete rankings, we measure appropriate statistics to set (1) (2) up a system of linear equations to calculate  (1) f (i ? j) and f (i ? j) up to inverse polynomial accuracy. The largest of these values f (i ? j) corresponds to the position of ei in the central ranking of M1 .  To compute the values f (r) (i ? j) r=1,2 we consider f (1) (i ? j|ei? ? 1) ? the probability that ei is ranked at the jth position conditioned on the element ei? ranking first according to M1 (and resp. for M2 ). Using w10 and w20 as in Algorithm 2, it holds that Pr (ei ? j|ei? ? 1) = w10 f (1) (i ? j|ei? ? 1) + w20 f (2) (i ? j|ei? ? 1) . We need to relate f (r) (i ? j|ei? ? 1) to f (r) (i ? j). Indeed Lemma 10.1 shows that Pr (ei ? j|ei? ? 1) is an almost linear equations in the two unknowns. We show that if ei? is ranked above ei in the central permutation, then for some small ? it holds that Pr (ei ? j|ei? ? 1) = w10 f (1) (i ? j) + w20 f (2) (i ? j) ? ? We refer the reader to Section 10 in the supplementary material for full details. 7 The H ANDLE -D EGENERATE -C ASES procedure. We call a mixture model w1 M (?1 , ?1 ) ? w2 M (?2 , ?2 ) degenerate if the parameters of the two Mallows models are equal, and the edit distance between the prefixes of the two central rankings is at most two i.e., by changing the positions of at most two elements in ?1 we retrieve ?2 . We show that unless w1 M (?1 , ?1 )?w2 M (?2 , ?2 ) is degenerate, a random partition (Sa , Sb , Sc ) is likely to satisfy the requirements of Lemma 3.2 (and T ENSOR -D ECOMP will be successful). Hence, if T ENSOR -D ECOMP repeatedly fail, we deduce our model is indeed degenerate. To show this, we characterize the uniqueness of decompositions of rank 2, along with some very useful properties of random partitions. In such degenerate cases, we find the two prefixes and then remove the elements in the prefixes from U , and recurse on the remaining elements. We refer the reader to Section 9 in the supplementary material for full details. 4 Experiments Goal. The main contribution of our paper is devising an algorithm that provably learns any mixture of two Mallows models. But could it be the case that the previously existing heuristics, even though they are unproven, still perform well in practice? We compare our algorithm to existing techniques, to see if, and under what settings our algorithm outperforms them. Baseline. We compare our algorithm to the popular EM based algorithm of [5], seeing as EM based heuristics are the most popular way to learn a mixture of Mallows models. The EM algorithm starts with a random guess for the two central permutations. At iteration t, EM maintains a guess as to the two Mallows models that generated the sample. First (expectation step) the algorithm assigns a weight to each ranking in our sample, where the weight of a ranking reflects the probability that it was generated from the first or the second of the current Mallows models. Then (the maximization step) the algorithm updates its guess of the models? parameters based on a local search ? minimizing the average distance to the weighted rankings in our sample. We comment that we implemented only the version of our algorithm that handles non-degenerate cases (more interesting case). In our experiment the two Mallows models had parameters ?1 6= ?2 , so our setting was never degenerate. Setting. We ran both the algorithms on synthetic data comprising of rankings of size n = 10. The weights were sampled u.a.r from [0, 1], and the ?-parameters were sampled by sampling ln(1/?) u.a.r from [0, 5]. For d ranging from 0 to n2 we generated the two central rankings ?1 and ?2 to be within distance d in the following manner. ?1 was always fixed as (1, 2, 3, . . . , 10). To describe ?2 , observe that it suffices to note the number of inversion between 1 and elements 2, 3, ..., 10; the number of inversions between 2 and 3, 4, ..., 10 and so on. So we picked u.a.r a non-negative integral solution to x1 + . . . + xn = d which yields a feasible permutation and let ?2 be the permutation that it details. Using these models? parameters, we generated N = 5 ? 106 random samples. Evaluation Metric and Results. For each value of d, we ran both algorithms 20 times and counted the fraction of times on which they returned the true rankings that generated the sample. The results of the experiment for rankings of size n = 10 are in Table 1. Clearly, the closer the two centrals rankings are to one another, the worst EM performs. On the other hand, our algorithm is able to recover the true rankings even at very close distances. As the rankings get slightly farther, our algorithm recovers the true rankings all the time. We comment that similar performance was observed for other values of n as well. We also comment that our algorithm?s runtime was reasonable (less than 10 minutes on a 8-cores Intel x86 64 computer). Surprisingly, our implementation of the EM algorithm typically took much longer to run ? due to the fact that it simply did not converge. distance between rankings 0 2 4 8 16 24 30 35 40 45 success rate of EM 0% 0% 0% 10% 30% 30% 60% 60% 80% 60% success rate of our algorithm 10% 10% 40% 70% 60 % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Table 1: Results of our experiment. 8 References [1] C. L. Mallows. Non-null ranking models i. Biometrika, 44(1-2), 1957. [2] John I. Marden. Analyzing and Modeling Rank Data. Chapman & Hall, 1995. [3] Guy Lebanon and John Lafferty. Cranking: Combining rankings using conditional probability models on permutations. In ICML, 2002. [4] Thomas Brendan Murphy and Donal Martin. Mixtures of distance-based models for ranking data. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 41, 2003. [5] Marina Meila, Kapil Phadnis, Arthur Patterson, and Jeff Bilmes. Consensus ranking under the exponential model. Technical report, UAI, 2007. [6] Ludwig M. Busse, Peter Orbanz, and Joachim M. Buhmann. Cluster analysis of heterogeneous rank data. In ICML, ICML ?07, 2007. [7] Bhushan Mandhani and Marina Meila. Tractable search for learning exponential models of rankings. Journal of Machine Learning Research - Proceedings Track, 5, 2009. [8] Tyler Lu and Craig Boutilier. Learning mallows models with pairwise preferences. In ICML, 2011. [9] Joel Oren, Yuval Filmus, and Craig Boutilier. Efficient vote elicitation under candidate uncertainty. JCAI, 2013. [10] H Peyton Young. Condorcet?s theory of voting. The American Political Science Review, 1988. [11] Persi Diaconis. Group representations in probability and statistics. Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 1988. [12] Mark Braverman and Elchanan Mossel. Sorting from noisy information. CoRR, abs/0910.1191, 2009. [13] Marina Meila and Harr Chen. Dirichlet process mixtures of generalized mallows models. In UAI, 2010. [14] Sanjoy Dasgupta. Learning mixtures of gaussians. In FOCS, 1999. [15] Sanjeev Arora and Ravi Kannan. Learning mixtures of arbitrary gaussians. In STOC, 2001. [16] Dimitris Achlioptas and Frank McSherry. On spectral learning of mixtures of distributions. In COLT, 2005. [17] Adam Tauman Kalai, Ankur Moitra, and Gregory Valiant. Efficiently learning mixtures of two gaussians. In STOC, STOC ?10, 2010. [18] A. Moitra and G. Valiant. Settling the polynomial learnability of mixtures of gaussians. In Foundations of Computer Science (FOCS), 2010 51st Annual IEEE Symposium on, 2010. [19] Anima Anandkumar, Rong Ge, Daniel Hsu, Sham M. Kakade, and Matus Telgarsky. Tensor decompositions for learning latent variable models. CoRR, abs/1210.7559, 2012. [20] Animashree Anandkumar, Daniel Hsu, and Sham M. Kakade. A method of moments for mixture models and hidden markov models. In COLT, 2012. [21] Daniel Hsu and Sham M. Kakade. Learning mixtures of spherical gaussians: moment methods and spectral decompositions. In ITCS, ITCS ?13, 2013. [22] Santosh Vempala and Grant Wang. A spectral algorithm for learning mixture models. J. Comput. Syst. Sci., 68(4), 2004. [23] Aditya Bhaskara, Moses Charikar, Ankur Moitra, and Aravindan Vijayaraghavan. Smoothed analysis of tensor decompositions. In Symposium on the Theory of Computing (STOC), 2014. [24] M. G. Kendall. Biometrika, 30(1/2), 1938. [25] Aditya Bhaskara, Moses Charikar, and Aravindan Vijayaraghavan. Uniqueness of tensor decompositions with applications to polynomial identifiability. CoRR, abs/1304.8087, 2013. [26] Naveen Goyal, Santosh Vempala, and Ying Xiao. Fourier pca. In Symposium on the Theory of Computing (STOC), 2014. [27] R.P. Stanley. Enumerative Combinatorics. Number v. 1 in Cambridge studies in advanced mathematics. Cambridge University Press, 2002. 9
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Optimal Regret Minimization in Posted-Price Auctions with Strategic Buyers Mehryar Mohri Courant Institute and Google Research 251 Mercer Street New York, NY 10012 ? Medina Andres Munoz Courant Institute 251 Mercer Street New York, NY 10012 mohri@cims.nyu.edu munoz@cims.nyu.edu Abstract We study revenue optimization learning algorithms for posted-price auctions with strategic buyers. We analyze a very broad family of monotone regret minimization algorithms for this problem, which includes the previously best known algorithm, and show ? that no algorithm in that family admits a strategic regret more favorable than ?( T ). We then introduce a new algorithm that achieves a strategic regret differing from the lower bound only by a factor in O(log T ), an exponential improvement upon the previous best algorithm. Our new algorithm admits a natural analysis and simpler proofs, and the ideas behind its design are general. We also report the results of empirical evaluations comparing our algorithm with the previous state of the art and show a consistent exponential improvement in several different scenarios. 1 Introduction Auctions have long been an active area of research in Economics and Game Theory [Vickrey, 2012, Milgrom and Weber, 1982, Ostrovsky and Schwarz, 2011]. In the past decade, however, the advent of online advertisement has prompted a more algorithmic study of auctions, including the design of learning algorithms for revenue maximization for generalized second-price auctions or second-price auctions with reserve [Cesa-Bianchi et al., 2013, Mohri and Mu?noz Medina, 2014, He et al., 2013]. These studies have been largely motivated by the widespread use of AdExchanges and the vast amount of historical data thereby collected ? AdExchanges are advertisement selling platforms using second-price auctions with reserve price to allocate advertisement space. Thus far, the learning algorithms proposed for revenue maximization in these auctions critically rely on the assumption that the bids, that is, the outcomes of auctions, are drawn i.i.d. according to some unknown distribution. However, this assumption may not hold in practice. In particular, with the knowledge that a revenue optimization algorithm is being used, an advertiser could seek to mislead the publisher by under-bidding. In fact, consistent empirical evidence of strategic behavior by advertisers has been found by Edelman and Ostrovsky [2007]. This motivates the analysis presented in this paper of the interactions between sellers and strategic buyers, that is, buyers that may act non-truthfully with the goal of maximizing their surplus. The scenario we consider is that of posted-price auctions, which, albeit simpler than other mechanisms, in fact matches a common situation in AdExchanges where many auctions admit a single bidder. In this setting, second-price auctions with reserve are equivalent to posted-price auctions: a seller sets a reserve price for a good and the buyer decides whether or not to accept it (that is to bid higher than the reserve price). In order to capture the buyer?s strategic behavior, we will analyze an online scenario: at each time t, a price pt is offered by the seller and the buyer must decide to either accept it or leave it. This scenario can be modeled as a two-player repeated non-zero sum game with 1 incomplete information, where the seller?s objective is to maximize his revenue, while the advertiser seeks to maximize her surplus as described in more detail in Section 2. The literature on non-zero sum games is very rich [Nachbar, 1997, 2001, Morris, 1994], but much of the work in that area has focused on characterizing different types of equilibria, which is not directly relevant to the algorithmic questions arising here. Furthermore, the problem we consider admits a particular structure that can be exploited to design efficient revenue optimization algorithms. From the seller?s perspective, this game can also be viewed as a bandit problem [Kuleshov and Precup, 2010, Robbins, 1985] since only the revenue (or reward) for the prices offered is accessible to the seller. Kleinberg and Leighton [2003] precisely studied this continuous bandit setting under the assumption of an oblivious buyer, that is, one that does not exploit the seller?s behavior (more precisely, the authors assume that at each round the seller interacts with a different buyer). The authors presented a tight regret bound of ?(log log T ) for the scenario of a buyer holding a fixed valuation 2 and a regret bound of O(T 3 ) when facing an adversarial buyer by using an elegant reduction to a discrete bandit problem. However, as argued by Amin et al. [2013], when dealing with a strategic buyer, the usual definition of regret is no longer meaningful. Indeed, consider the following example: let the valuation of the buyer be given by v ? [0, 1] and assume that an algorithm with sublinear regret such as Exp3 [Auer et al., 2002b] or UCB [Auer et al., 2002a] is used for T rounds by the seller. A possible strategy for the buyer, knowing the seller?s algorithm, would be to accept prices only if they are smaller than some small value , certain that the seller would eventually learn to offer only prices less than . If   v, the buyer would considerably boost her surplus while, in theory, the seller would have not incurred a large regret since in hindsight, the best fixed strategy would have been to offer price  for all rounds. This, however is clearly not optimal for the seller. The stronger notion of policy regret introduced by Arora et al. [2012] has been shown to be the appropriate one for the analysis of bandit problems with adaptive adversaries. However, for the example just described, a sublinear policy regret can be similarly achieved. Thus, this notion of regret is also not the pertinent one for the study of our scenario. We will adopt instead the definition of strategic-regret, which was introduced by Amin et al. [2013] precisely for the study of this problem. This notion of regret also matches the concept of learning loss introduced by [Agrawal, 1995] when facing an oblivious adversary. Using this definition, Amin et al. [2013] presented both upper and lower bounds for the regret of a seller facing a strategic buyer and showed that the buyer?s surplus must be discounted over time in order to be able to achieve sublinear regret?(see Section 2). However, the gap between the upper and lower bounds they presented is in O( T ). In the following, we analyze a very broad family of monotone regret minimization algorithms for this problem (Section 3), which includes the algorithm of Amin et al. [2013], ? and show that no algorithm in that family admits a strategic regret more favorable than ?( T ). Next, we introduce a nearly-optimal algorithm that achieves a strategic regret differing from the lower bound at most by a factor in O(log T ) (Section 4). This represents an exponential improvement upon the existing best algorithm for this setting. Our new algorithm admits a natural analysis and simpler proofs. A key idea behind its design is a method deterring the buyer from lying, that is rejecting prices below her valuation. 2 Setup We consider the following game played by a buyer and a seller. A good, such as an advertisement space, is repeatedly offered for sale by the seller to the buyer over T rounds. The buyer holds a private valuation v ? [0, 1] for that good. At each round t = 1, . . . , T , a price pt is offered by the seller and a decision at ? {0, 1} is made by the buyer. at takes value 1 when the buyer accepts to buy at that price, 0 otherwise. We will say that a buyer lies whenever at = 0 while pt < v. At the beginning of the game, the algorithm A used by the seller to set prices is announced to the buyer. Thus, the buyer plays strategically against this algorithm. The knowledge of A is a standard assumption in mechanism design and also matches the practice in AdExchanges. For any ? ? (0, 1), define the discounted surplus of the buyer as follows: Sur(A, v) = T X ? t?1 at (v ? pt ). t=1 2 (1) The value of the discount factor ? indicates the strength of the preference of the buyer for current surpluses versus future ones. The performance of a seller?s algorithm is measured by the notion of strategic-regret [Amin et al., 2013] defined as follows: Reg(A, v) = T v ? T X at pt . (2) t=1 The buyer?s objective is to maximize his discounted surplus, while the seller seeks to minimize his regret. Note that, in view of the discounting factor ?, the buyer is not fully adversarial. The problem consists of designing algorithms achieving sublinear strategic regret (that is a regret in o(T )). The motivation behind the definition of strategic-regret is straightforward: a seller, with access to the buyer?s valuation, can set a fixed price for the good  close to this value. The buyer, having no control on the prices offered, has no option but to accept this price in order to optimize his utility. The revenue per round of the seller is therefore v?. Since there is no scenario where higher revenue can be achieved, this is a natural setting to compare the performance of our algorithm. To gain more intuition about the problem, let us examine some of the complications arising when dealing with a strategic buyer. Suppose the seller attempts to learn the buyer?s valuation v by performing a binary search. This would be a natural algorithm when facing a truthful buyer. However, in view of the buyer?s knowledge of the algorithm, for ?  0, it is in her best interest to lie on the initial rounds, thereby quickly, in fact exponentially, decreasing the price offered by the seller. The seller would then incur an ?(T ) regret. A binary search approach is therefore ?too aggressive?. Indeed, an untruthful buyer can manipulate the seller into offering prices less than v/2 by lying about her value even just once! This discussion suggests following a more conservative approach. In the next section, we discuss a natural family of conservative algorithms for this problem. 3 Monotone algorithms The following conservative pricing strategy was introduced by Amin et al. [2013]. Let p1 = 1 and ? < 1. If price pt is rejected at round t, the lower price pt+1 = ?pt is offered at the next round. If at any time price pt is accepted, then this price is offered for all the remaining rounds. We will denote this algorithm by monotone. The motivation behind its design is clear: for a suitable choice of ?, the seller can slowly decrease the prices offered, thereby pressing the buyer to reject many prices ? (which is not convenient for her) before obtaining a favorable price. The authors present an O(T? T ) regret bound for this algorithm, with T? = ?1/(1 ? ?). A more careful analysis shows p that this bound can be further tightened to O( T? T + T ) when the discount factor ? is known to the seller. Despite its sublinear regret, the monotone algorithm remains sub-optimal for certain choices of ?. Indeed, consider a scenario with ?  1. For this setting, the buyer would no longer have an incentive to lie, thus, an algorithm such as binary search would achieve logarithmic regret, while the ? regret achieved by the monotone algorithm is only guaranteed to be in O( T ). One may argue that the monotone algorithm is too specific since it admits a single parameter ? and that perhaps a more complex algorithm with the same monotonic idea could achieve a more favorable regret. Let us therefore analyze a generic monotone algorithm Am defined by Algorithm 1. Definition 1. For any buyer?s valuation v ? [0, 1], define the acceptance time ?? = ?? (v) as the first time a price offered by the seller using algorithm Am is accepted. Proposition 1. For any decreasing sequence of prices (pt )Tt=1 , there exists a truthful buyer with valuation v0 such that algorithm Am suffers regret of at least q ? 1 Reg(Am , v0 ) ? T ? T. 4 ? Proof. By definition of the regret, ? ?? )(v ? p?? ). We can ? we have Reg(Am , v) = v?? + (T ? ? consider two cases: ? (v0 ) > T for some v0 ??[1/2, 1] ? and ? (v) ? T for every v ? [1/2, 1]. In the former case, we have Reg(Am , v0 ) ? v0 T ? 12 T , which implies the statement of the proposition. Thus, we can assume the latter condition. 3 Algorithm 1 Family of monotone algorithms. Algorithm 2 Definition of Ar . n = the root of T (T ) while Offered prices less than T do Offer price pn if Accepted then n = r(n) else Offer price pn for r rounds n = l(n) end if end while Let p1 = 1 and pt ? pt?1 for t = 2, . . . T . t?1 p ? pt Offer price p while (Buyer rejects p) and (t < T ) do t?t+1 p ? pt Offer price p end while while (t < T ) do t?t+1 Offer price p end while Let v be uniformly distributed over [ 12 , 1]. In view of Lemma 4 (see Appendix 8.1), we have ? ? 1 1 T? T ? ? ? ? E[v? ] + E[(T ? ? )(v ? p?? )] ? E[? ] + (T ? T )E[(v ? p?? )] ? E[? ] + . 2 2 32E[?? ] ? ? T? T The right-hand side is minimized for E[?? ] = . Plugging in this value yields 4 ? ? ? ? T? T T? T E[Reg(Am , v)] ? , which implies the existence of v with Reg(A , v ) ? . 0 m 0 4 4 ? We have thus shown that any monotone algorithm Am suffers a regret of at least ?( T ), even when facing a truthful buyer. A tighter lower bound can be given under a mild condition on the prices offered. Definition 2. A sequence (pt )Tt=1 is said to be convex if it verifies pt ? pt+1 ? pt+1 ? pt+2 for t = 1, . . . , T ? 2. An instance of a convex sequence is given by the prices offered by the monotone algorithm. A seller offering prices forming a decreasing convex sequence seeks to control the number of lies of the buyer by slowly reducing prices. The following proposition gives a lower bound on the regret of any algorithm in this family. Proposition 2. Let (pt )Tt=1 be a decreasing convex sequence of prices. There exists a valuation v0 p for the buyer such that the regret of the monotone algorithm defined by these prices is ?( T C? + ? ? T ), where C? = 2(1??) . The full proof of this proposition is given in Appendix 8.1. The proposition shows that when the discount factor ? is known, the monotone algorithm is in fact asymptotically optimal in its class. The results just presented suggest that the dependency on T cannot be improved by any monotone algorithm. In some sense, this family of algorithms is ?too conservative?. Thus, to achieve a more favorable regret guarantee, an entirely different algorithmic idea must be introduced. In the next section, we describe a new algorithm that achieves a substantially more advantageous strategic regret by combining the fast convergence properties of a binary search-type algorithm (in a truthful setting) with a method penalizing untruthful behaviors of the buyer. 4 A nearly optimal algorithm Let A be an algorithm for revenue optimization used against a truthful buyer. Denote by T (T ) the tree associated to A after T rounds. That is, T (T ) is a full tree of height T with nodes n ? T (T ) labeled with the prices pn offered by A. The right and left children of n are denoted by r(n) and l(n) respectively. The price offered when pn is accepted by the buyer is the label of r(n) while the price offered by A if pn is rejected is the label of l(n). Finally, we will denote the left and right subtrees rooted at node n by L (n) and R(n) respectively. Figure 1 depicts the tree generated by an algorithm proposed by Kleinberg and Leighton [2003], which we will describe later. 4 1/2 1/16 1/2 1/4 3/4 5/16 9/16 1/4 3/4 13/16 (a) 13/16 (b) Figure 1: (a) Tree T (3) associated to the algorithm proposed in [Kleinberg and Leighton, 2003]. (b) Modified tree T 0 (3) with r = 2. Since the buyer holds a fixed valuation, we will consider algorithms that increase prices only after a price is accepted and decrease it only after a rejection. This is formalized in the following definition. Definition 3. An algorithm A is said to be consistent if maxn0 ?L (n) pn0 ? pn ? minn0 ?R(n) pn0 for any node n ? T (T ). For any consistent algorithm A, we define a modified algorithm Ar , parametrized by an integer r ? 1, designed to face strategic buyers. Algorithm Ar offers the same prices as A, but it is defined with the following modification: when a price is rejected by the buyer, the seller offers the same price for r rounds. The pseudocode of Ar is given in Algorithm 2. The motivation behind the modified algorithm is given by the following simple observation: a strategic buyer will lie only if she is certain that rejecting a price will boost her surplus in the future. By forcing the buyer to reject a price for several rounds, the seller ensures that the future discounted surplus will be negligible, thereby coercing the buyer to be truthful. We proceed to formally analyze algorithm Ar . In particular, we will quantify the effect of the parameter r on the choice of the buyer?s strategy. To do so, a measure of the spread of the prices offered by Ar is needed. Definition 4. For any node n ? T (T ) define the right increment of n as ?nr := pr(n) ? pn . Similarly, define its left increment to be ?nl := maxn0 ?L (n) pn ? pn0 . The prices offered by Ar define a path in T (T ). For each node in this path, we can define time t(n) to be the number of rounds needed for this node to be reached by Ar . Note that, since r may be greater than 1, the path chosen by Ar might not necessarily reach the leaves of T (T ). Finally, let S : n 7? S(n) be the function representing the surplus obtained by the buyer when playing an optimal strategy against Ar after node n is reached. Lemma 1. The function S satisfies the following recursive relation: S(n) = max(? t(n)?1 (v ? pn ) + S(r(n)), S(l(n))). (3) Proof. Define a weighted tree T 0 (T ) ? T (T ) of nodes reachable by algorithm Ar . We assign weights to the edges in the following way: if an edge on T 0 (T ) is of the form (n, r(n)), its weight is set to be ? t(n)?1 (v ? pn ), otherwise, it is set to 0. It is easy to see that the function S evaluates the weight of the longest path from node n to the leafs of T 0 (T ). It thus follows from elementary graph algorithms that equation (3) holds. The previous lemma immediately gives us necessary conditions for a buyer to reject a price. Proposition 3. For any reachable node n, if price pn is rejected by the buyer, then the following inequality holds: ?r v ? pn < (? l + ??nr ). (1 ? ?)(1 ? ? r ) n Proof. A direct implication of Lemma 1 is that price pn will be rejected by the buyer if and only if ? t(n)?1 (v ? pn ) + S(r(n)) < S(l(n)). 5 (4) However, by definition, the buyer?s surplus obtained by following any path in R(n) is bounded above by S(r(n)). In particular, this is true for the path which rejects pr(n) and accepts every price PT afterwards. The surplus of this path is given by t=t(n)+r+1 ? t?1 (v ? pbt ) where (b pt )Tt=t(n)+r+1 are the prices the seller would offer if price pr(n) were rejected. Furthermore, since algorithm Ar is consistent, we must have pbt ? pr(n) = pn + ?nr . Therefore, S(r(n)) can be bounded as follows: S(r(n)) ? T X ? t?1 (v ? pn ? ?nr ) = t=t(n)+r+1 ? t(n)+r ? ? T (v ? pn ? ?nr ). 1?? (5) We proceed to upper bound S(l(n)). Since pn ? p0n ? ?nl for all n0 ? L (n), v ? pn0 ? v ? pn + ?nl and T X ? t(n)+r?1 ? ? T (v ? pn + ?nl ). (6) S(l(n)) ? ? t?1 (v ? pn + ?nl ) = 1 ? ? t=t +r n Combining inequalities (4), (5) and (6) we conclude that ? t(n)?1 (v ? pn ) + ? ? t(n)+r ? ? T ? t(n)+r?1 ? ? T (v ? pn ? ?nr ) ? (v ? pn + ?nl ) 1?? 1??   ? r ?nl + ? r+1 ?nr ? ? T ?t(n)+1 (?nr + ?nl ) ? r+1 ? ? r ? (v ? pn ) 1 + 1?? 1?? ? r (?nl + ??nr ) . 1?? Rearranging the terms in the above inequality yields the desired result. ? (v ? pn )(1 ? ? r ) ? Let us consider the following instantiation of algorithm A introduced in [Kleinberg and Leighton, 2003]. The algorithm keeps track of a feasible interval [a, b] initialized to [0, 1] and an increment parameter  initialized to 1/2. The algorithm works in phases. Within each phase, it offers prices a + , a + 2, . . . until a price is rejected. If price a + k is rejected, then a new phase starts with the feasible interval set to [a + (k ? 1), a + k] and the increment parameter set to 2 . This process continues until b ? a < 1/T at which point the last phase starts and price a is offered for the remaining rounds. It is not hard to see that the number of phases needed by the algorithm is less than dlog2 log2 T e+1. A more surprising fact is that this algorithm has been shown to achieve regret O(log log T ) when the seller faces a truthful buyer. We will show that the modification Ar of this algorithm admits a particularly favorable regret bound. We will call this algorithm PFSr (penalized fast search algorithm). Proposition 4. For any value of v ? [0, 1] and any ? ? (0, 1), the regret of algorithm PFSr admits the following upper bound: (1 + ?)? r T . (7) Reg(PFSr , v) ? (vr + 1)(dlog2 log2 T e + 1) + 2(1 ? ?)(1 ? ? r ) Note that for r = 1 and ? ? 0 the upper bound coincides with that of [Kleinberg and Leighton, 2003]. Proof. Algorithm PFSr can accumulate regret in two ways: the price offered pn is rejected, in which case the regret is v, or the price is accepted and its regret is v ? pn . Let K = dlog2 log2 T e + 1 be the number of phases run by algorithm PFSr . Since at most K different prices are rejected by the buyer (one rejection per phase) and each price must be rejected for r rounds, the cumulative regret of all rejections is upper bounded by vKr. The second type of regret can also be bounded straightforwardly. For any phase i, let i and [ai , bi ] denote the corresponding search parameter and feasible interval respectively. If v ? [ai , bi ],?the regret accrued in the case where the buyer accepts a price in this interval is bounded ? by bi ?ai = i . If, on the other hand v ? bi , then it readily follows that v ? pn < v ? bi + i for all prices pn offered in phase i. Therefore, the regret obtained in acceptance rounds is bounded by K K  X ?  X Ni (v ? bi )1v>bi + i ? (v ? bi )1v>bi Ni + K, i=1 i=1 6 where Ni ? ?1 i denotes the number of prices offered during the i-th round. Finally, notice that, in view of the algorithm?s definition, every bi corresponds to a rejected price. Thus, by Proposition 3, there exist nodes ni (not necessarily distinct) such that pni = bi and v ? bi = v ? pni ? ?r (? l + ??nr i ). (1 ? ?)(1 ? ? r ) ni It is immediate that ?nr ? 1/2 and ?nl ? 1/2 for any node n, thus, we can write K X K (v ? bi )1v>bi Ni ? i=1 X ? r (1 + ?) ? r (1 + ?) N ? T. i 2(1 ? ?)(1 ? ? r ) i=1 2(1 ? ?)(1 ? ? r ) The last inequality holds since at most T prices are offered by our algorithm. Combining the bounds for both regret types yields the result. When an upper bound on the discount factor ? is known to the seller, he can leverage this information and optimize upper bound (7) with respect to the parameter r. l m ?0r T Theorem 1. Let 1/2 < ? < ?0 < 1 and r? = argminr?1 r + (1??0 )(1?? r ) . For any v ? [0, 1], 0 if T > 4, the regret of PFSr? satisfies Reg(PFSr? , v) ? (2v?0 T?0 log cT + 1 + v)(log2 log2 T + 1) + 4T?0 , where c = 4 log 2. The proof of this theorem is fairly technical and is deferred to the Appendix. The theorem helps us define conditions under which logarithmic regret can be achieved. Indeed, if ?0 = e?1/ log T = O(1 ? log1 T ), using the inequality e?x ? 1 ? x + x2 /2 valid for all x > 0 we obtain log2 T 1 ? ? log T. 1 ? ?0 2 log T ? 1 It then follows from Theorem 1 that Reg(PFSr? , v) ? (2v log T log cT + 1 + v)(log2 log2 T + 1) + 4 log T. Let us compare the regret bound given by Theorem 1 with the one given by Amin et al. [2013]. The above discussion shows that for certain values of ?, an exponentially better regret can be achieved by our algorithm. It can be argued that the knowledge of an upper bound on ? ? is required, whereas this is not needed for the monotone algorithm. However, if ? > 1 ? 1/ T , the regret bound on monotone is super-linear, and therefore uninformative. Thus, in order to properly compare ? both algorithms, we may assume that ? < 1 ? 1/ T in which case, by Theorem 1, the regret ? of our algorithm is O( T log T ) whereas only linear regret can be guaranteed by the monotone ? p algorithm. Even under the more favorable bound of O( T? T + T ), for any ? < 1 and ? < ?+1 1 ? 1/T ? , the monotone algorithm will achieve regret O(T 2 ) while a strictly better regret O(T ? log T log log T ) is attained by ours. 5 Lower bound The following lower bounds have been derived in previous work. Theorem 2 ([Amin et al., 2013]). Let ? > 0 be fixed. For any algorithm A, there exists a valuation 1 v for the buyer such that Reg(A, v) ? 12 T? . This theorem is in fact given for the stochastic setting where the buyer?s valuation is a random variable taken from some fixed distribution D. However, the proof of the theorem selects D to be a point mass, therefore reducing the scenario to a fixed priced setting. Theorem 3 ( [Kleinberg and Leighton, 2003]). Given any algorithm A to be played against a truthful buyer, there exists a value v ? [0, 1] such that Reg(A, v) ? C log log T for some universal constant C. 7 ? = .95, v = .75 2500 PFS 1000 mon 2000 Regret Regret 800 600 400 ? = .75, v = .25 PFS mon 120 80 80 PFS 100 mon 1500 1000 40 20 20 0 0 0 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 Number of rounds (log-scale) 60 40 500 2 PFS 100 mon 60 200 Number of rounds (log-scale) ? = .80, v = .25 120 Regret 1200 Regret ? = .85, v = .75 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 Number of rounds (log-scale) 0 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 Number of rounds (log-scale) Figure 2: Comparison of the monotone algorithm and PFSr for different choices of ? and v. The regret of each algorithm is plotted as a function of the number rounds when ? is not known to the algorithms (first two figures) and when its value is made accessible to the algorithms (last two figures). Combining these results leads immediately to the following. Corollary 1. Given  any algorithm A, there exists a buyer?s valuation v ? [0, 1] such that Reg(A, v) ? max 1 12 T? , C log log T , for a universal constant C. We now compare the upper bounds given in the previous section with the bound of Corollary 1. For ? > 1/2, we have Reg(PFSr , v) = O(T? log T log log T ). On the other hand, for ? ? 1/2, we may choose r = 1, in which case, by Proposition 4, Reg(PFSr , v) = O(log log T ). Thus, the upper and lower bounds match up to an O(log T ) factor. 6 Empirical results In this section, we present the result of simulations comparing the monotone algorithm and our algorithm PFSr . The experiments were carried out as follows: given a buyer?s valuation v, a discrete set of false valuations vb were selected out of the set {.03, .06, . . . , v}. Both algorithms were run against a buyer making the seller believe her valuation is vb instead of v. The value of vb achieving the best utility for the buyer was chosen and the regret for both algorithms is reported in Figure 2. We considered two sets of experiments. First, the value of parameter ? was left unknown to both algorithms and the value of r was set to log(T ). This choice is motivated by the discussion following Theorem 1 since, for large values of T , we can expect to achieve logarithmic regret. The first two plots (from left to right) in Figure 2 depict these results. The apparent stationarity in the regret of PFSr is just a consequence of the scale of the plots as the regret is in fact growing as log(T ). For the second set of experiments, we allowed access to the parameter ? to both algorithms. The value of r was chosen optimally based on the resultsp of Theorem ? 1 and the parameter ? of monotone p was set to 1 ? 1/ T T? to ensure regret in O( T T? + T ). It is worth noting that even though our algorithm was designed under the assumption of some knowledge about the value of ?, the experimental results show that an exponentially better performance over the monotone algorithm is still attainable and in fact the performances of the optimized and unoptimized versions of our algorithm are comparable. A more comprehensive series of experiments is presented in Appendix 9. 7 Conclusion We presented a detailed analysis of revenue optimization algorithms against strategic buyers. In doing so, we reduced the gap between upper and lower bounds on strategic regret to a logarithmic factor. Furthermore, the algorithm we presented is simple to analyze and reduces to the truthful scenario in the limit of ? ? 0, an important property that previous algorithms did not admit. We believe that our analysis helps gain a deeper understanding of this problem and that it can serve as a tool for studying more complex scenarios such as that of strategic behavior in repeated second-price auctions, VCG auctions and general market strategies. Acknowledgments We thank Kareem Amin, Afshin Rostamizadeh and Umar Syed for several discussions about the topic of this paper. This work was partly funded by the NSF award IIS-1117591. 8 References R. Agrawal. The continuum-armed bandit problem. SIAM journal on control and optimization, 33 (6):1926?1951, 1995. K. Amin, A. Rostamizadeh, and U. Syed. Learning prices for repeated auctions with strategic buyers. In Proceedings of NIPS, pages 1169?1177, 2013. R. Arora, O. Dekel, and A. Tewari. Online bandit learning against an adaptive adversary: from regret to policy regret. In Proceedings of ICML, 2012. P. Auer, N. Cesa-Bianchi, and P. Fischer. Finite-time analysis of the multiarmed bandit problem. Machine Learning, 47(2-3):235?256, 2002a. P. Auer, N. Cesa-Bianchi, Y. Freund, and R. E. Schapire. The nonstochastic multiarmed bandit problem. SIAM J. Comput., 32(1):48?77, 2002b. N. Cesa-Bianchi, C. Gentile, and Y. Mansour. Regret minimization for reserve prices in second-price auctions. In Proceedings of SODA, pages 1190?1204, 2013. B. Edelman and M. Ostrovsky. Strategic bidder behavior in sponsored search auctions. Decision Support Systems, 43(1), 2007. D. He, W. Chen, L. Wang, and T. Liu. A game-theoretic machine learning approach for revenue maximization in sponsored search. In Proceedings of IJCAI, pages 206?213, 2013. R. D. Kleinberg and F. T. Leighton. The value of knowing a demand curve: Bounds on regret for online posted-price auctions. In Proceedings of FOCS, pages 594?605, 2003. V. Kuleshov and D. Precup. Algorithms for the multi-armed bandit problem. Journal of Machine Learning, 2010. P. Milgrom and R. Weber. A theory of auctions and competitive bidding. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, pages 1089?1122, 1982. M. Mohri and A. Mu?noz Medina. Learning theory and algorithms for revenue optimization in second-price auctions with reserve. In Proceedings of ICML, 2014. P. Morris. Non-zero-sum games. In Introduction to Game Theory, pages 115?147. Springer, 1994. J. Nachbar. Bayesian learning in repeated games of incomplete information. Social Choice and Welfare, 18(2):303?326, 2001. J. H. Nachbar. Prediction, optimization, and learning in repeated games. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, pages 275?309, 1997. M. Ostrovsky and M. Schwarz. Reserve prices in internet advertising auctions: A field experiment. In Proceedings of EC, pages 59?60. ACM, 2011. H. Robbins. Some aspects of the sequential design of experiments. In Herbert Robbins Selected Papers, pages 169?177. Springer, 1985. W. Vickrey. Counterspeculation, auctions, and competitive sealed tenders. The Journal of finance, 16(1):8?37, 2012. 9
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Rates of convergence for nearest neighbor classification Sanjoy Dasgupta Computer Science and Engineering University of California, San Diego dasgupta@cs.ucsd.edu Kamalika Chaudhuri Computer Science and Engineering University of California, San Diego kamalika@cs.ucsd.edu Abstract We analyze the behavior of nearest neighbor classification in metric spaces and provide finite-sample, distribution-dependent rates of convergence under minimal assumptions. These are more general than existing bounds, and enable us, as a by-product, to establish the universal consistency of nearest neighbor in a broader range of data spaces than was previously known. We illustrate our upper and lower bounds by introducing a new smoothness class customized for nearest neighbor classification. We find, for instance, that under the Tsybakov margin condition the convergence rate of nearest neighbor matches recently established lower bounds for nonparametric classification. 1 Introduction In this paper, we deal with binary prediction in metric spaces. A classification problem is defined by a metric space (X , ?) from which instances are drawn, a space of possible labels Y = {0, 1}, and a distribution P over X ? Y. The goal is to find a function h : X ? Y that minimizes the probability of error on pairs (X, Y ) drawn from P; this error rate is the risk R(h) = P(h(X) 6= Y ). The best such function is easy to specify: if we let ? denote the marginal distribution of X and ? the conditional probability ?(x) = P(Y = 1|X = x), then the predictor 1(?(x) ? 1/2) achieves the minimum possible risk, R? = EX [min(?(X), 1 ? ?(X))]. The trouble is that P is unknown and thus a prediction rule must instead be based only on a finite sample of points (X1 , Y1 ), . . . , (Xn , Yn ) drawn independently at random from P. Nearest neighbor (NN) classifiers are among the simplest prediction rules. The 1-NN classifier assigns each point x ? X the label Yi of the closest point in X1 , . . . , Xn (breaking ties arbitrarily, say). For a positive integer k, the k-NN classifier assigns x the majority label of the k closest points in X1 , . . . , Xn . In the latter case, it is common to let k grow with n, in which case the sequence (kn : n ? 1) defines a kn -NN classifier. The asymptotic consistency of nearest neighbor classification has been studied in detail, starting with the work of Fix and Hodges [7]. The risk of the NN classifier, henceforth denoted Rn , is a random variable that depends on the data set (X1 , Y1 ), . . . , (Xn , Yn ); the usual order of business is to first determine the limiting behavior of the expected value ERn and to then study stronger modes of convergence of Rn . Cover and Hart [2] studied the asymptotics of ERn in general metric spaces, under the assumption that every x in the support of ? is either a continuity point of ? or has ?({x}) > 0. For the 1-NN classifier, they found that ERn ? EX [2?(X)(1 ? ?(X))] ? 2R? (1 ? R? ); for kn -NN with kn ? ? and kn /n ? 0, they found ERn ? R? . For points in Euclidean space, a series of results starting with Stone [15] established consistency without any distributional assumptions. For kn -NN in particular, Rn ? R? almost surely [5]. These consistency results place nearest neighbor methods in a favored category of nonparametric estimators. But for a fuller understanding it is important to also have rates of convergence. For 1 instance, part of the beauty of nearest neighbor is that it appears to adapt automatically to different distance scales in different regions of space. It would be helpful to have bounds that encapsulate this property. Rates of convergence are also important in extending nearest neighbor classification to settings such as active learning, semisupervised learning, and domain adaptation, in which the training data is not a fully-labeled data set obtained by i.i.d. sampling from the future test distribution. For instance, in active learning, the starting point is a set of unlabeled points X1 , . . . , Xn , and the learner requests the labels of just a few of these, chosen adaptively to be as informative as possible about ?. There are many natural schemes for deciding which points to label: for instance, one could repeatedly pick the point furthest away from the labeled points so far, or one could pick the point whose k nearest labeled neighbors have the largest disagreement among their labels. The asymptotics of such selective sampling schemes have been considered in earlier work [4], but ultimately the choice of scheme must depend upon finite-sample behavior. The starting point for understanding this behavior is to first obtain a characterization in the non-active setting. 1.1 Previous work on rates of convergence There is a large body of work on convergence rates of nearest neighbor estimators. Here we outline some of the types of results that have been obtained, and give representative sources for each. The earliest rates of convergence for nearest neighbor were distribution-free. Cover [3] studied the 1NN classifier in the case X = R, under the assumption of class-conditional densities with uniformlybounded third derivatives. He showed that ERn converges at a rate of O(1/n2 ). Wagner [18] and later Fritz [8] also looked at 1-NN, but in higher dimension X = Rd . The latter obtained an asymptotic rate of convergence for Rn under the milder assumption of non-atomic ? and lower semi-continuous class-conditional densities. Distribution-free results are valuable, but do not characterize which properties of a distribution most influence the performance of nearest neighbor classification. More recent work has investigated different approaches to obtaining distribution-dependent bounds, in terms of the smoothness of the distribution. A simple and popular smoothness parameter is the Holder constant. Kulkarni and Posner [12] obtained a fairly general result of this kind for 1-NN and kn -NN. They assumed that for some constants K and ?, and for all x1 , x2 ? X , |?(x1 ) ? ?(x2 )| ? K?(x1 , x2 )2? . They then gave bounds in terms of the Holder parameter ? as well as covering numbers for the marginal distribution ?. Gyorfi [9] looked at the case X = Rd , under the weaker assumption that for some function K : Rd ? R and some ?, and for all z ? Rd and all r > 0, Z 1 ?(x)?(dx) ? K(z)r? . ?(z) ? ?(B(z, r)) B(z,r) The integral denotes the average ? value in a ball of radius r centered at z; hence, this ? is similar in spirit to the earlier Holder parameter, but does not require ? to be continuous. Gyorfi obtained asymptotic rates in terms of ?. Another generalization of standard smoothness conditions was proposed recently [17] in a ?probabilistic Lipschitz? assumption, and in this setting rates were obtained for NN classification in bounded spaces X ? Rd . The literature leaves open several basic questions that have motivated the present paper. (1) Is it possible to give tight finite-sample bounds for NN classification in metric spaces, without any smoothness assumptions? What aspects of the distribution must be captured in such bounds? (2) Are there simple notions of smoothness that are especially well-suited to nearest neighbor? Roughly speaking, we consider a notion suitable if it is possible to sharply characterize the convergence rate of nearest neighbor for all distributions satisfying this notion. As we discuss further below, the Holder constant is lacking in this regard. (3) A recent trend in nonparametric classification has been to study rates of convergence under ?margin conditions? such as that of Tsybakov. The best achievable rates under these conditions are now known: does nearest neighbor achieve these rates? 2 Class 0 Class 1 Class 0 Class 1 Figure 1: One-dimensional distributions. In each case, the class-conditional densities are shown. 1.2 Some illustrative examples We now look at a couple of examples to get a sense of what properties of a distribution most critically affect the convergence rate of nearest neighbor. In each case, we study the k-NN classifier. To start with, consider a distribution over X = R in which the two classes (Y = 0, 1) have classconditional densities ?0 and ?1 . Assume that these two distributions have disjoint support, as on the left side of Figure 1. The k-NN classifier will make a mistake on a specific query x only if x is near the boundary between the two classes. To be precise, consider an interval around x of probability mass k/n, that is, an interval B = [x?r, x+r] with ?(B) = k/n. Then the k nearest neighbors will lie roughly in this interval, and there will likely be an error only if the interval contains a substantial portion of the wrong class. Whether or not ? is smooth, or the ?i are smooth, is irrelevant. In a general metric space, the k nearest neighbors of any query point x are likely to lie in a ball centered at x of probability mass roughly k/n. Thus the central objects in analyzing k-NN are balls of mass ? k/n near the decision boundary, and it should be possible to give rates of convergence solely in terms of these. Now let?s turn to notions of smoothness. Figure 1, right, shows a variant of the previous example in which it is no longer the case that ? ? {0, 1}. Although one of the class-conditional densities in the figure is highly non-smooth, this erratic behavior occurs far from the decision boundary and thus does not affect nearest neighbor performance. And in the vicinity of the boundary, what matters is not how much ? varies within intervals of any given radius r, but rather within intervals of probability mass k/n. Smoothness notions such as Lipschitz and Holder constants, which measure changes in ? with respect to x, are therefore not entirely suitable: what we need to measure are changes in ? with respect to the underlying marginal ? on X . 1.3 Results of this paper Let us return to our earlier setting of pairs (X, Y ), where X takes values in a metric space (X , ?) and has distribution ?, while Y ? {0, 1} has conditional probability function ?(x) = Pr(Y = 1|X = x). We obtain rates of convergence for k-NN by attempting to make precise the intuitions discussed above. This leads to a somewhat different style of analysis than has been used in earlier work. Our main result is an upper bound on the misclassification rate of k-NN that holds for any sample size n and for any metric space, with no distributional assumptions. The bound depends on a novel notion of the effective boundary for k-NN: for the moment, denote this set by An,k ? X . ? We show that with high probability over the training data, the misclassification rate of the k-NN classifier (with respect to the Bayes-optimal classifer) is bounded above by ?(An,k ) plus a small additional term that can be made arbitrarily small (Theorem 5). ? We lower-bound the misclassification rate using a related notion of effective boundary (Theorem 6). ? We identify a general condition under which, as n and k grow, An,k approaches the actual decision boundary {x | ?(x) = 1/2}. This yields universal consistency in a wider range of metric spaces than just Rd (Theorem 1), thus broadening our understanding of the asymptotics of nearest neighbor. 3 We then specialize our generalization bounds to smooth distributions. ? We introduce a novel smoothness condition that is tailored to nearest neighbor. We compare our upper and lower bounds under this kind of smoothness (Theorem 3). ? We obtain risk bounds under the margin condition of Tsybakov that match the best known results for nonparametric classification (Theorem 4). ? We look at additional specific cases of interest: when ? is bounded away from 1/2, and the even more extreme scenario where ? ? {0, 1} (zero Bayes risk). 2 Definitions and results Let (X , ?) be any separable metric space. For any x ? X , let B o (x, r) = {x0 ? X | ?(x, x0 ) < r} and B(x, r) = {x0 ? X | ?(x, x0 ) ? r} denote the open and closed balls, respectively, of radius r centered at x. Let ? be a Borel regular probability measure on this space (that is, open sets are measurable, and every set is contained in a Borel set of the same measure) from which instances X are drawn. The label of an instance X = x is Y ? {0, 1} and is distributed according to the measurable conditional probability function ? : X ? [0, 1] as follows: Pr(Y = 1|X = x) = ?(x). Given a data set S = ((X1 , Y1 ), . . . , (Xn , Yn )) and a query point x ? X , we use the notation X (i) (x) to denote the i-th nearest neighbor of x in the data set, and Y (i) (x) to denote its label. Distances are calculated with respect to the given metric ?, and ties are broken by preferring points earlier in the sequence. The k-NN classifier is defined by  1 if Y (1) (x) + ? ? ? + Y (k) (x) ? k/2 gn,k (x) = 0 otherwise We analyze the performance of gn,k by comparing it with g(x) = 1(?(x) ? 1/2), the omniscient Bayes-optimal classifier. Specifically, we obtain bounds on PrX (gn,k (X) 6= g(X)) that hold with high probability over the choice of data S, for any n. It is worth noting that convergence results for nearest neighbor have traditionally studied the excess risk Rn,k ? R? , where Rn,k = Pr(Y 6= gn,k (X)). If we define the pointwise quantities Rn,k (x) = Pr(Y 6= gn,k (x)|X = x) R? (x) = min(?(x), 1 ? ?(x)), for all x ? X , we see that Rn,k (x) ? R? (x) = |1 ? 2?(x)|1(gn,k (x) 6= g(x)). (1) Taking expectation over X, we then have Rn,k ? R? ? PrX (gn,k (X) 6= g(X)), and so we also obtain upper bounds on the excess risk. The technical core of this paper is the finite-sample generalization bound of Theorem 5. We begin, however, by discussing some of its implications since these relate directly to common lines of inquiry in the statistical literature. All proofs appear in the appendix. 2.1 Universal consistency A series of results, starting with [15], has shown that kn -NN is strongly consistent (Rn = Rn,kn ? R? almost surely) when X is a finite-dimensional Euclidean space and ? is a Borel measure. A consequence of the bounds we obtain in Theorem 5 is that this phenomenon holds quite a bit more generally. In fact, strong consistency holds in any metric measure space (X , ?, ?) for which the Lebesgue differentiation theorem is true: that is, spaces in which, for any bounded measurable f , Z 1 lim f d? = f (x) (2) r?0 ?(B(x, r)) B(x,r) for almost all (?-a.e.) x ? X . For more details on this differentiation property, see [6, 2.9.8] and [10, 1.13]. It holds, for instance: 4 ? When (X , ?) is a finite-dimensional normed space [10, 1.15(a)]. ? When (X , ?, ?) is doubling [10, 1.8], that is, when there exists a constant C(?) such that ?(B(x, 2r)) ? C(?)?(B(x, r)) for every ball B(x, r). ? When ? is an atomic measure on X . For the following theorem, recall that the risk of the kn -NN classifier, Rn = Rn,kn , is a function of the data set (X1 , Y1 ), . . . , (Xn , Yn ). Theorem 1. Suppose metric measure space (X , ?, ?) satisfies differentiation condition (2). Pick a sequence of positive integers (kn ), and for each n, let Rn = Rn,kn be the risk of the kn -NN classifier gn,kn . 1. If kn ? ? and kn /n ? 0, then for all  > 0, lim Prn (Rn ? R? > ) = 0. n?? Here Prn denotes probability over the data set (X1 , Y1 ), . . . , (Xn , Yn ). 2. If in addition kn /(log n) ? ?, then Rn ? R? almost surely. 2.2 Smooth measures Before stating our finite-sample bounds in full generality, we provide a glimpse of them under smooth probability distributions. We begin with a few definitions. The support of ?. The support of distribution ? is defined as supp(?) = {x ? X | ?(B(x, r)) > 0 for all r > 0}. It was shown by [2] that in separable metric spaces, ?(supp(?)) = 1. For the interested reader, we reproduce their brief proof in the appendix (Lemma 24). The conditional probability function for a set. The conditional probability function ? is defined for points x ? X , and can be extended to measurable sets A ? X with ?(A) > 0 as follows: Z 1 ?(A) = ? d?. (3) ?(A) A This is the probability that Y = 1 for a point X chosen at random from the distribution ? restricted to set A. We exclusively consider sets A of the form B(x, r), in which case ? is defined whenever x ? supp(?). 2.2.1 Smoothness with respect to the marginal distribution For the purposes of nearest neighbor, it makes sense to define a notion of smoothness with respect to the marginal distribution on instances. For ?, L > 0, we say the conditional probability function ? is (?, L)-smooth in metric measure space (X , ?, ?) if for all x ? supp(?) and all r > 0, |?(B(x, r)) ? ?(x)| ? L ?(B o (x, r))? . (As might be expected, we only need to apply this condition locally, so it is enough to restrict attention to balls of probability mass upto some constant po .) One feature of this notion is that it is scale-invariant: multiplying all distances by a fixed amount leaves ? and L unchanged. Likewise, if the distribution has several well-separated clusters, smoothness is unaffected by the distance-scales of the individual clusters. It is common to analyze nonparametric classifiers under the assumption that X = Rd and that ? is ?H -Holder continuous for some ? > 0, that is, |?(x) ? ?(x0 )| ? Lkx ? x0 k?H for some constant L. These bounds typically also require ? to have a density that is uniformly bounded (above and/or below). We now relate these standard assumptions to our notion of smoothness. 5 Lemma 2. Suppose that X ? Rd , and ? is ?H -Holder continuous, and ? has a density with respect to Lebesgue measure that is ? ?min on X . Then there is a constant L such that for any x ? supp(?) and r > 0 with B(x, r) ? X , we have |?(x) ? ?(B(x, r))| ? L?(B o (x, r))?H /d . (To remove the requirement that B(x, r) ? X , we would need the boundary of X to be wellbehaved, for instance by requiring that X contains a constant fraction of every ball centered in it. This is a familiar assumption in nonparametric classification, including the seminal work of [1] that we discuss shortly.) Our smoothness condition for nearest neighbor problems can thus be seen as a generalization of the usual Holder conditions. It applies in broader range of settings, for example for discrete ?. 2.2.2 Generalization bounds for smooth measures Under smoothness, our general finite-sample convergence rates (Theorems 5 and 6) take on an easily interpretable form. Recall that gn,k (x) is the k-NN classifier, while g(x) is the Bayes-optimal prediction. Theorem 3. Suppose ? is (?, L)-smooth in (X , ?, ?). The following hold for any n and k. (Upper bound on misclassification rate.) Pick any ? > 0 and suppose that k ? 16 ln(2/?). Then r    ? ! 1 1 2 k Pr(gn,k (X) 6= g(X)) ? ? + ? x ? X ?(x) ? ? ln + L . X 2 k ? 2n (Lower bound on misclassification rate.) Conversely, there is an absolute constant co such that   ?  1 1 1 2k En Pr(gn,k (X) 6= g(X)) ? co ? x ? X ?(x) 6= , |?(x) ? | ? ? ? L . X 2 2 n k Here En is expectation over the data set. The optimal choice of k is ? n2?/(2?+1) , and with this setting the upper and lower bounds are ? ?1/2 )}), the probability directly comparable: they are both of the form ?({x : |?(x) ? 1/2| ? O(k mass of a band of points around the decision boundary ? = 1/2. It is noteworthy that these upper and lower bounds have a pleasing resemblance for every distribution in the smoothness class. This is in contrast to the usual minimax style of analysis, in which a bound on an estimator?s risk is described as ?optimal? for a class of distributions if there exists even a single distribution in that class for which it is tight. 2.2.3 Margin bounds An achievement of statistical theory in the past two decades has been margin bounds, which give fast rates of convergence for many classifiers when the underlying data distribution P (given by ? and ?) satisfies a large margin condition stipulating, roughly, that ? moves gracefully away from 1/2 near the decision boundary. Following [13, 16, 1], for any ? ? 0, we say P satisfies the ?-margin condition if there exists a constant C > 0 such that   1 ? x ?(x) ? ? t ? Ct? . 2 Larger ? implies a larger margin. We now obtain bounds for the misclassification rate and the excess risk of k-NN under smoothness and margin conditions. Theorem 4. Suppose ? is (?, L)-smooth in (X , ?, ?) and satisfies the ?-margin condition (with constant C), for some ?, ?, L, C ? 0. In each of the two following statements, ko and Co are constants depending on ?, ?, L, C. (a) For any 0 < ? < 1, set k = ko n2?/(2?+1) (log(1/?))1/(2?+1) . With probability at least 1 ? ? over the choice of training data,  ??/(2?+1) log(1/?) . PrX (gn,k (X) 6= g(X)) ? ? + Co n 6 (b) Set k = ko n2?/(2?+1) . Then En Rn,k ? R? ? Co n??(?+1)/(2?+1) . It is instructive to compare these bounds with the best known rates for nonparametric classification under the margin assumption. The work of Audibert and Tsybakov [1] (Theorems 3.3 and 3.5) shows that when (X , ?) = (Rd , k ? k), and ? is ?H -Holder continuous, and ? lies in the range [?min , ?max ] for some ?max > ?min > 0, and the ?-margin condition holds (along with some other assumptions), an excess risk of n??H (?+1)/(2?H +d) is achievable and is also the best possible. This is exactly the rate we obtain for nearest neighbor classification, once we translate between the different notions of smoothness as per Lemma 2. We discuss other interesting scenarios in Section C.4 in the appendix. 2.3 A general upper bound on the misclassification error We now get to our most general finite-sample bound. It requires no assumptions beyond the basic measurability conditions stated at the beginning of Section 2, and it is the basis of the all the results described so far. We begin with some key definitions. The radius and probability-radius of a ball. When dealing with balls, we will primarily be interested in their probability mass. To this end, for any x ? X and any 0 ? p ? 1, define rp (x) = inf{r | ?(B(x, r)) ? p}. Thus ?(B(x, rp (x))) ? p (Lemma 23), and rp (x) is the smallest radius for which this holds. The effective interiors of the two classes, and the effective boundary. When asked to make a prediction at point x, the k-NN classifier finds the k nearest neighbors, which can be expected to lie in B(x, rp (x)) for?p ? k/n. It then takes an average over these k labels, which has a standard deviation of ? ? 1/ k. With this in mind, there is a natural definition for the effective interior of the Y = 1 region: the points x with ?(x) > 1/2 on which the k-NN classifier is likely to be correct: + Xp,? = {x ? supp(?) | ?(x) > 1 1 , ?(B(x, r)) ? + ? for all r ? rp (x)}. 2 2 The corresponding definition for the Y = 0 region is ? Xp,? = {x ? supp(?) | ?(x) < 1 1 , ?(B(x, r)) ? ? ? for all r ? rp (x)}. 2 2 The remainder of X is the effective boundary, + ? ?p,? = X \ (Xp,? ? Xp,? ). Observe that ?p0 ,?0 ? ?p,? whenever p0 ? p and ?0 ? ?. Under mild conditions, as p and ? tend to zero, the effective boundary tends to the actual decision boundary {x | ?(x) = 1/2} (Lemma 14), which we shall denote ?o . The misclassification rate of the k-NN classifier can be bounded by the probability mass of the effective boundary: Theorem 5. Pick any 0 < ? < 1 and positive integers k < n. Let gn,k denote the k-NN classifier based on n training points, and g(x) the Bayes-optimal classifier. With probability at least 1 ? ? over the choice of training data,  PrX (gn,k (X) 6= g(X)) ? ? + ? ?p,? , where k 1 p p= ? , and ? = min n 1 ? (4/k) ln(2/?) 7 1 , 2 r 1 2 ln k ? ! . 2.4 A general lower bound on the misclassification error Finally, we give a counterpart to Theorem 5 that lower-bounds the expected probability of error of gn,k . For any positive integers k < n, we identify a region close to the decision boundary in which a k-NN classifier has a constant probability of making a mistake. This high-error set is + ? En,k = En,k ? En,k , where   1 1 1 + ? ? En,k = x ? supp(?) | ?(x) > , ?(B(x, r)) ? + for all rk/n (x) ? r ? r(k+ k+1)/n (x) 2 2 k   1 1 1 ? En,k = x ? supp(?) | ?(x) < , ?(B(x, r)) ? ? ? for all rk/n (x) ? r ? r(k+?k+1)/n (x) . 2 2 k (Recall the definition (3) of ?(A) for sets A.) For smooth ? this region turns out to be comparable to the effective decision boundary ?k/n,1/?k . Meanwhile, here is a lower bound that applies to any (X , ?, ?). Theorem 6. For any positive integers k < n, let gn,k denote the k-NN classifier based on n training points. There is an absolute constant co such that the expected misclassification rate satisfies En PrX (gn,k (X) 6= g(X)) ? co ?(En,k ), where En is expectation over the choice of training set. Acknowledgements The authors are grateful to the National Science Foundation for support under grant IIS-1162581. 8 References [1] J.-Y. Audibert and A.B. Tsybakov. Fast learning rates for plug-in classifiers. Annals of Statistics, 35(2):608?633, 2007. [2] T. Cover and P.E. Hart. Nearest neighbor pattern classification. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 13:21?27, 1967. [3] T.M. Cover. Rates of convergence for nearest neighbor procedures. In Proceedings of The Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, 1968. [4] S. Dasgupta. Consistency of nearest neighbor classification under selective sampling. In Twenty-Fifth Conference on Learning Theory, 2012. [5] L. Devroye, L. Gyorfi, A. Krzyzak, and G. Lugosi. On the strong universal consistency of nearest neighbor regression function estimates. Annals of Statistics, 22:1371?1385, 1994. [6] H. Federer. Geometric Measure Theory. Springer, 1969. [7] E. Fix and J. Hodges. Discriminatory analysis, nonparametric discrimination. USAF School of Aviation Medicine, Randolph Field, Texas, Project 21-49-004, Report 4, Contract AD41(128)31, 1951. [8] J. Fritz. Distribution-free exponential error bound for nearest neighbor pattern classification. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 21(5):552?557, 1975. [9] L. Gyorfi. The rate of convergence of kn -nn regression estimates and classification rules. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 27(3):362?364, 1981. [10] J. Heinonen. Lectures on Analysis on Metric Spaces. Springer, 2001. [11] R. Kaas and J.M. Buhrman. Mean, median and mode in binomial distributions. Statistica Neerlandica, 34(1):13?18, 1980. [12] S. Kulkarni and S. Posner. Rates of convergence of nearest neighbor estimation under arbitrary sampling. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 41(4):1028?1039, 1995. [13] E. Mammen and A.B. Tsybakov. Smooth discrimination analysis. The Annals of Statistics, 27(6):1808?1829, 1999. [14] E. Slud. Distribution inequalities for the binomial law. Annals of Probability, 5:404?412, 1977. [15] C. Stone. Consistent nonparametric regression. Annals of Statistics, 5:595?645, 1977. [16] A.B. Tsybakov. Optimal aggregation of classifiers in statistical learning. The Annals of Statistics, 32(1):135?166, 2004. [17] R. Urner, S. Ben-David, and S. Shalev-Shwartz. Access to unlabeled data can speed up prediction time. In International Conference on Machine Learning, 2011. [18] T.J. Wagner. Convergence of the nearest neighbor rule. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 17(5):566?571, 1971. 9
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Improving the Performance of Radial Basis Function Networks by Learning Center Locations Thomas Dietterich Department of Computer Science Oregon State University Corvallis, OR 97331-3202 Dietrich Wettschereck Department of Computer Science Oregon State University Corvallis, OR 97331-3202 Abstract Three methods for improving the performance of (gaussian) radial basis function (RBF) networks were tested on the NETtaik task. In RBF, a new example is classified by computing its Euclidean distance to a set of centers chosen by unsupervised methods. The application of supervised learning to learn a non-Euclidean distance metric was found to reduce the error rate of RBF networks, while supervised learning of each center's variance resulted in inferior performance. The best improvement in accuracy was achieved by networks called generalized radial basis function (GRBF) networks. In GRBF, the center locations are determined by supervised learning. After training on 1000 words, RBF classifies 56.5% of letters correct, while GRBF scores 73.4% letters correct (on a separate test set). From these and other experiments, we conclude that supervised learning of center locations can be very important for radial basis function learning. 1 Introduction Radial basis function (RBF) networks are 3-layer feed-forward networks in which each hidden unit a computes the function fa(x) = e- IIX-X",1I2 ,,2 , and the output units compute a weighted sum of these hidden-unit activations: N J*(x) =L cafa(x). 1133 1134 Wettschereck and Dietterich rex) In other words, the value of is determined by computing the Euclidean distance between x and a set of N centers, Xa. These distances are then passed through Gaussians (with variance 17 2 and zero mean), weighted by Ca, and summed. Radial basis function networks (RBF networks) provide an attractive alternative to sigmoid networks for learning real-valued mappings: (a) they provide excellent approximations to smooth functions (Poggio & Girosi, 1989), (b) their "centers" are interpretable as "prototypes" , and (c) they can be learned very quickly, because the center locations (xa) can be determined by unsupervised learning algorithms and the weights (c a ) can be computed by pseudo-inverse methods (Moody and Darken, 1989). Although the application of unsupervised methods to learn the center locations does yield very efficient training, there is some evidence that the generalization performance of RBF networks is inferior to sigmoid networks. Moody and Darken (1989), for example, report that their RBF network must receive 10 times more training data than a standard sigmoidal network in order to attain comparable generalization performance on the Mackey-Glass time-series task. There are several plausible explanations for this performance gap. First, in sigmoid networks, all parameters are determined by supervised learning, whereas in RBF networks, typically only the learning of the output weights has been supervised. Second, the use of Euclidean distance to compute Ilx - Xa II assumes that all input features are equally important. In many applications, this assumption is known to be false, so this could yield poor results. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we carefully tested the performance of RBF networks on the well-known NETtaik task (Sejnowski & Rosenberg, 1987) and compared it to the performance of a wide variety of algorithms that we have previously tested on this task (Dietterich, Hild, & Bakiri, 1990). The results confirm that there is a substantial gap between RBF generalization and other methods. Second, we evaluated the benefits of employing supervised learning to learn (a) the center locations X a , (b) weights Wi for a weighted distance metric, and (c) for each center. The results show that supervised learning of the variances center locations and weights improves performance, while supervised learning of the variances or of combinations of center locations, variances, and weights did not. The best performance was obtained by supervised learning of only the center locations (and the output weights, of course). a; In the remainder of the paper we first describe our testing methodology and review the NETtaik domain. Then, we present results of our comparison ofRBF with other methods. Finally, we describe the performance obtained from supervised learning of weights, variances, and center locations. 2 Methodology All of the learning algorithms described in this paper have several parameters (such as the number of centers and the criterion for stopping training) that must be specified by the user. To set these parameters in a principled fashion, we employed the cross-validation methodology described by Lang, Hinton & Waibel (1990). First, as Improving the Performance of Radial Basis Function Networks by Learning Center Locations usual, we randomly partitioned our dataset into a training set and a test set. Then, we further divided the training set into a subtraining set and a cross-validation set. Alternative values for the user-specified parameters were then tried while training on the subtraining set and testing on the cross-validation set. The best-performing parameter values were then employed to train a network on the full training set. The generalization performance of the resulting network is then measured on the test set. Using this methodology, no information from the test set is used to determine any parameters during training. We explored the following parameters: (a) the number of hidden units (centers) N, (b) the method for choosing the initial locations of the centers, (c) the variance (j2 (when it was not subject to supervised learning), and (d) (whenever supervised training was involved) the stopping squared error per example. We tried N = 50, 100, 150, 200, and 250; (j2 1, 2, 4, 5, 10, 20, and 50; and three different initialization procedures: = (a) Use a subset of the training examples, (b) Use an unsupervised version of the IB2 algorithm of Aha, Kibler & Albert (1991), and (c) Apply k-means clustering, starting with the centers from (a). For all methods, we applied the pseudo-inverse technique of Penrose (1955) followed by Gaussian elimination to set the output weights. To perform supervised learning of center locations, feature weights, and variances, we applied conjugate-gradient optimization. We modified the conjugate-gradient implementation of backpropagation supplied by Barnard & Cole (1989). 3 The NETtalk Domain We tested all networks on the NETtaik task (Sejnowski & Rosenberg, 1987), in which the goal is to learn to pronounce English words by studying a dictionary of correct pronunciations. We replicated the formulation of Sejnowski & Rosenberg in which the task is to learn to map each individual letter in a word to a phoneme and a stress. Two disjoint sets of 1000 words were drawn at random from the NETtaik dictionary of 20,002 words (made available by Sejnowski and Rosenberg): one for training and one for testing. The training set was further subdivided into an 800-word sub training set and a 200-word cross-validation set. To encode the words in the dictionary, we replicated the encoding of Sejnowski & Rosenberg (1987): Each input vector encodes a 7-letter window centered on the letter to be pronounced. Letters beyond the ends of the word are encoded as blanks. Each letter is locally encoded as a 29-bit string (26 bits for each letter, 1 bit for comma, space, and period) with exactly one bit on. This gives 203 input bits, seven of which are 1 while all others are O. Each phoneme and stress pair was encoded using the 26-bit distributed code developed by Sejnowski & Rosenberg in which the bit positions correspond to distinctive features of the phonemes and stresses (e.g., voiced/unvoiced, stop, etc.). 1135 1136 Wettschereck and Dietterich 4 RBF Performance on the NETtaik Task We began by testing RBF on the NETtalk task. Cross-validation training deter250 (the number of mined that peak RBF generalization was obtained with N centers), (12 5 (constant for all centers), and the locations of the centers computed by k-means clustering. Table 1 shows the performance of RBF on the lOOO-word test set in comparison with several other algorithms: nearest neighbor, the decision tree algorithm ID3 (Quinlan, 1986), sigmoid networks trained via backpropagation (160 hidden units, cross-validation training, learning rate 0.25, momentum 0.9), Wolpert's (1990) HERBIE algorithm (with weights set via mutual information), and ID3 with error-correcting output codes (ECC, Dietterich & Bakiri, 1991). = = Table 1: Generalization performance on the NETtalk task. % correct Jl000-word test seQ Algorithm Word Letter Phoneme Stress Nearest neighbor 3.3 53.1 61.1 74.0 80.3***** 57.0***** 65.6***** RBF 3.7 9.6***** 65.6***** 78.7***** 77.2***** ID3 81.3***** 13.6** 70.6***** 80.8**** Back propagation 82.6***** 72.2* Wolpert 15.0 80.2 85.6***** 73.7* ID3 + 127-bit ECC 20.0*** 81.1 PrIor row dIfferent, p < .05* .01** .005*** .002**** .001***** Performance is shown at several levels of aggregation. The "stress" column indicates the percentage of stress assignments correctly classified. The "phoneme" column shows the percentage of phonemes correctly assigned. A "letter" is correct if the phoneme and stress are correctly assigned, and a "word" is correct if all letters in the word are correctly classified. Also shown are the results of a two-tailed test for the difference of two proportions, which was conducted for each row and the row preceding it in the table. From this table, it is clear that RBF is performing substantially below virtually all of the algorithms except nearest neighbor. There is certainly room for supervised learning of RBF parameters to improve on this. 5 Supervised Learning of Additional RBF Parameters In this section, we present our supervised learning experiments. In each case, we report only the cross-validation performance. Finally, we take the best supervised learning configuration, as determined by these cross-validation scores, train it on the entire training set and evaluate it on the test set. 5.1 Weighted Feature Norm and Centers With Adjustable Widths The first form of supervised learning that we tested was the learning of a weighted norm. In the NETtaik domain, it is obvious that the various input features are not equally important . In particular, the features describing the letter at the center of Improving the Performance of Radial Basis Function Networks by Learning C enter Locations the 7-letter window-the letter to be pronounced-are much more important than the features describing the other letters, which are only present to provide context . One way to capture the importance of different features is through a weighted norm: Ilx - xall! = Wi(Xi - xad 2 . L i We employed supervised training to obtain the weights Wi. We call this configuration RBFFW. On the cross-validation set, RBF FW correctly classified 62.4% of the letters (N=200, (j2 = 5, center locations determined by k-means clustering) . This is a 4.7 percentage point improvement over standard RBF, which on the crossvalidation set classifies only 57.7% of the letters correctly (N=250, (j2 = 5, center locations determined by k-means clustering). Moody & Darken (1989) suggested heuristics to set the variance of each center. They employed the inverse of the mean Euclidean distance from each center to its P-nearest neighbors to determine the variance. However, they found that in most cases a global value for all variances worked best . We replicated this experiment for P = 1 and P = 4, and we compared this to just setting the variances to a global value ((j2 = 5) optimized by cross- validation. The performance on the cross-validation set was 53.6% (for P=l), 53.8% (for P=4) , and 57.7% (for the global value). In addition to these heuristic methods, we also tried supervised learning of the variances alone (which we call RBFu). On the cross-validation set, it classifies 57.4% of the letters correctly, as compared with 57.7% for standard RBF. Hence, in all of our experiments, a single global value for (j2 gives better results than any of the techniques for setting separate values for each center. Other researchers have obtained experimental results in other domains showing the usefulness of nonuniform variances. Hence, we must conclude that, while RBF u did not perform well in the NETtaik domain, it may be valuable in other domains. 5.2 Learning Center Locations (Generalized Radial Basis Functions) Poggio and Girosi (1989) suggest using gradient descent methods to implement supervised learning of the center locations, a method that they call generalized radial basis functions (GRBF). We implemented and tested this approach . On the cross-validation set, GRBF correctly classifies 72.2% ofthe letters (N = 200, (j2 = 4, centers initialized to a subset of training data) as compared to 57.7% for standard RBF. This is a remarkable 14.5 percentage-point improvement. We also tested GRBF with previously learned feature weights (GRBFFW) and in combination with learning variances (G RBF u ). The performance of both of these methods was inferior to GRBF. For GRBFFW, gradient search on the center locations failed to significantly improved performance of RBF FW networks (RBF FW 62.4% vs. GRBFFw 62.8%, RBFFw 54.5% vs. GRBFFW 57.9%). This shows that through the use of a non-Euclidian, fixed metric found by RBFFW the gradient search of GRBF Fw is getting caught in a local minimum. One explanation for this is that feature weights and adjustable centers are. two alternative ways of achieving the same effect-namely, of making some features more important than others. Redundancy can easily create local minima. To understand this explanation, consider the plots in Figure 1. Figure l(A) shows the weights of the input features as they 1137 1138 Wettschereck and Dietterich 5 .--.---.---.~-.--~--~--. 0.8 4 0.6 3 2 0.4 1 0.2 o (A) 0.0 29 58 87 116 145 174 203 input number 0 (B) 29 58 87 116 145 174 203 input number Figure 1: (A) displays the weights of input features as learned by RBFFW. In (B) the mean square-distance between centers (separate for each dimension) from a GRBF network (N 100, 0- 2 4) is shown. = = were learned by RBF FW . Features with weights near zero have no influence in the distance calculation when a new test example is classified. Figure l(B) shows the mean squared distance between every center and every other center (computed separately for each input feature). Low values for the mean squared distance on feature i indicate that most centers have very similar values on feature i. Hence, this feature can play no role in determining which centers are activated by a new test example. In both plots, the features at the center of the window are clearly the most important. Therefore, it appears that GRBF is able to capture the information about the relative importance of features without the need for feature weights. To explore the effect of learning the variances and center locations simultaneously, we introduced a scale factor to allow us to adjust the relative magnitudes of the gradients. We then varied this scale factor under cross validation. Generally, the larger we set the scale factor (to increase the gradient of the variance terms) the worse the performance became. As with GRBF FW, we see that difficulties in gradient descent training are preventing us from finding a global minimum (or even re-discovering known local minima). 5.3 Summary Based on the results of this section as summarized in Table 2, we chose GRBF as the best supervised learning configuration and applied it to the entire 1000-word training set (with testing on the 1000-word test set). We also combined it with a 63-bit error-correcting output code to see if this would improve its performance, since error-correcting output codes have been shown to boost the performance of backpropagation and ID3. The final comparison results are shown in Table 3. The results show that GRBF is superior to RBF at all levels of aggregation. Furthermore, GRBF is statistically indistinguishable from the best method that we have tested to date (103 with 127-bit error-correcting output code), except on phonemes where it is detectably inferior and on stresses where it is detect ably superior. GRBF with error-correcting output codes is statistically indistinguishable from 103 with error-correcting output codes. Improving the Performance of Radial Basis Function Networks by Learning Center Locations Table 2: Percent of letters correctly classified on the 200-word cross-validation data set. % Letters Method Correct RBF 57.7 62.4 RBFFW RBFq 57.4 GRBF 72.2 62.8 GRBFFW GRBF q 67.5 Table 3: Generalization performance on the NETtaik task. Algorithm % correct (lOOO-word test set) Word Letter Phoneme Stress 57.0 65.6 3.7 80.3 82.4** 19.8** 73.8*** 84.1*** RBF GRBF ID3 + 85.6* 127-bit ECC 20.0 81.1* 73.7 GRBF + 63-bit ECC 19.2 74.6 82.2 85.3 PrIor row different ,p < .05* .002** .001*** The near-identical performance of GRBF and the error-correcting code method and the fact that the use of error correcting output codes does not improve GRBF's performance significantly, suggests that the "bias" of GRBF (i.e., its implicit assumptions about the unknown function being learned) is particularly appropriate for the NETtaik task. This conjecture follows from the observation that errorcorrecting output codes provide a way of recovering from improper bias (such as the bias of ID3 in this task). This is somewhat surprising, since the mathematical justification for GRBF is based on the smoothness of the unknown function, which is certainly violated in classification tasks. 6 Conclusions Radial basis function networks have many properties that make them attractive in comparison to networks of sigmoid units. However, our tests of RBF learning (unsupervised learning of center locations, supervised learning of output-layer weights) in the NETtaik domain found that RBF networks did not generalize nearly as well as sigmoid networks. This is consistent with results reported in other domains. However, by employing supervised learning of the center locations as well as the output weights, the GRBF method is able to substantially exceed the generalization performance of sigmoid networks. Indeed, GRBF matches the performance of the best known method for the NETtaik task: ID3 with error-correcting output codes, which, however, is approximately 50 times faster to train. We found that supervised learning of feature weights (alone) could also improve the performance of RBF networks, although not nearly as much as learning the center locations. Surprisingly, we found that supervised learning of the variances of the Gaussians located at each center hurt generalization performance. Also, combined supervised learning of center locations and feature weights did not perform as well as supervised learning of center locations alone. The training process is becoming stuck in local minima. For GRBFFW, we presented data suggesting that feature weights are redundant and that they could be introducing local minima as a result. Our implementation of GRBF, while efficient, still gives training times comparable to those required for backpropagation training of sigmoid networks. Hence, an 1139 1140 Wettschereck and Dietterich important open problem is to develop more efficient methods for supervised learning of center locations. While the results in this paper apply only to the NETtaik domain, the markedly superior performance of GRBF over RBF suggests that in new applications of RBF networks, it is important to consider supervised learning of center locations in order to obtain the best generalization performance. Acknowledgments This research was supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation Grant Number IRI-86-57316. References D. W. Aha, D. Kibler & M. K. Albert. (1991) Instance-based learning algorithms. Machine Learning 6(1):37-66. E. Barnard & R. A. Cole. (1989) A neural-net training program based on conjugategradient optimization. Rep. No. CSE 89-014. Oregon Graduate Institute, Beaverton, OR. T. G. Dietterich & G. Bakiri. (1991) Error-correcting output codes: A general method for improving multiclass inductive learning programs. Proceedings of the Ninth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-91), Anaheim, CA: AAAI Press. T. G. Dietterich, H. Hild, & G. Bakiri. (1990) A comparative study ofID3 and backpropagation for English text-to-speech mapping. Proceedings of the 1990 Machine Learning Conference, Austin, TX. 24-31. K. J. Lang, A. H. Waibel & G. E. Hinton. (1990) A time-delay neural network architecture for isolated word recognition. Neural Networks 3:33-43. J. MacQueen. (1967) Some methods of classification and analysis of multivariate observations. In LeCam, 1. M. & Neyman, J. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 5th Berkeley Symposium on Mathematics, Statistics, and Probability (p. 281). Berkeley, CA: University of California Press. J. Moody & C. J. Darken. (1989) Fast learning in networks of locally-tuned processing units. Neural Computation 1(2):281-294. R. Penrose. (1955) A generalized inverse for matrices. Proceedings of Cambridge Philosophical Society 51:406-413. T. Poggio & F. Girosi. (1989) A theory of networks for approximation and learning. Report Number AI-1140. MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Cambridge, MA. J. R. Quinlan. (1986) Induction of decision trees. Machine Learning 1(1):81-106. T. J. Sejnowski & C. R. Rosenberg. (1987) Parallel networks that learn to pronounce English text. Complex Systems 1:145-168. D. Wolpert. (1990) Constructing a generalizer superior to NETtaik via a mathematical theory of generalization. Neural Networks 3:445-452.
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The limits of squared Euclidean distance regularization? ? Micha? Derezinski Computer Science Department University of California, Santa Cruz CA 95064, U.S.A. mderezin@soe.ucsc.edu Manfred K. Warmuth Computer Science Department University of California, Santa Cruz CA 95064, U.S.A. manfred@cse.ucsc.edu Abstract Some of the simplest loss functions considered in Machine Learning are the square loss, the logistic loss and the hinge loss. The most common family of algorithms, including Gradient Descent (GD) with and without Weight Decay, always predict with a linear combination of the past instances. We give a random construction for sets of examples where the target linear weight vector is trivial to learn but any algorithm from the above family is drastically sub-optimal. Our lower bound on the latter algorithms holds even if the algorithms are enhanced with an arbitrary kernel function. This type of result was known for the square loss. However, we develop new techniques that let us prove such hardness results for any loss function satisfying some minimal requirements on the loss function (including the three listed above). We also show that algorithms that regularize with the squared Euclidean distance are easily confused by random features. Finally, we conclude by discussing related open problems regarding feed forward neural networks. We conjecture that our hardness results hold for any training algorithm that is based on the squared Euclidean distance regularization (i.e. Back-propagation with the Weight Decay heuristic). 1 Introduction We define a set of simple linear learning problems described by an n dimensional square matrix M with ?1 entries. The rows xi of M are n instances, the columns correspond to the n possible targets, and Mij is the label given by target j to the ? ?1 +1 ?1 +1 instance xi (See Figure 1). Note, that Mij = xi ? ej , instances ? ?1 +1 +1 ?1 where ej is the j-th unit vector. That is, the j-th target ? +1 ?1 ?1 +1 ? +1 +1 ?1 +1 is a linear function that picks the j-th column out of ? ? ? ? M. It is important to understand that the matrix M, targets which we call the problem matrix, specifies n learning problems: In the jth problem each of the n in- Figure 1: A random ?1 matrix M: the instances stances (rows) are labeled by the jth target (column). are the rows and the targets the columns of the The rationale for defining a set of problems instead of matrix. When the j-th column is the target, then a single problem follows from the fact that learning a we have a linear learning problem where the j-th single problem is easy and we need to average the pre- unit vector is the target weight vector. diction loss over the n problems to obtain a hardness result. ? This research was supported by the NSF grant IIS-1118028. 1 The protocol of learning is simple: The algorithm is given k training instances labeled by one of the targets. It then produces a linear weight vector w that aims to incur small average loss on all n instances labeled by the same target.1 Any loss function satisfying some minimal assumptions can be used, including the square, the logistic and the hinge loss. We will show that when M is random, then this type of problems are hard to learn by any algorithm from a certain class of algorithms.2 By hard to learn we mean that the loss is high when we average over instances and targets. The class of algorithms for which we prove our hardness results is any algorithm whose prediction on a new instance vector x is a function of w ? x where the weight vector w is a linear combination of training examples. This includes any algorithm motivated by regularizing with || w ||22 (i.e. algorithms motivated by the Representer Theorem [KW71, SHS01]) or alternatively any algorithm that exhibits certain rotation invariance properties [WV05, Ng04, WKZ14]. Note that any version of Gradient Descent or Weight Decay on the three loss functions listed above belongs to this class of algorithms, i.e. it predicts with a linear combination of the instances seen so far. This class of simple algorithms has many advantages (such as the fact that it can be kernelized). However, we show that this class is very slow at learning the simple learning problems described above. More precisely, our lower bounds for a randomly chosen M have the following form: For some constants A ? (0, 1] and B ? 1 that depend on the loss function, any algorithm that predicts with linear combinations of k instances has average loss at least A ? B nk with high probability, where the average is over instances and targets. This means that A of all n instances, the after seeing a fraction of 2B average loss is still at least the constant A2 (see the red solid curve in Figure 2 for a typical plot of the average loss of GD). Note, that there are trivial algorithms that learn our learning problem much faster. These algorithms clearly do not predict with a linear combination of the given instances. For example, one simple algorithm keeps track of the set of targets that are consistent with the k examples seen so far (the version space) and chooses one target in the version space at random. This algorithm has the following properties: After seeing k instances, the expected size of the version space is min(n/2k , 1), so after O(log2 n) examples, with high probability there is only one unit vector ej left in the version space that labels all the examples correctly. Figure 2: The average logistic loss of the Gradient Descent (with and without 1-norm regularization) and the Exponentiated Gradient algorithms for the problem of learning the first column of a 100 dimensional square ?1 matrix. The x-axis is the number of examples k in the training set. Note that the average logistic loss for Gradient Descent decreases roughly linearly. One way to closely approximate the above version space algorithm is to run the Exponentiated Gradient (EG) algorithm [KW97b] with a large learning rate. The EG algorithm maintains a weight vector which is a probability vector. It updates the weights by multiplying them by non-negative factors and then re-normalizes them to a probability vector. The factors are the exponentiated negative scaled derivatives of the loss. See dot-dashed green curve of Figure 2 for a typical plot of the average loss of EG. It converges ?exponentially faster? than GD for the problem given in Figure 1. General regret bounds for the EG algorithm are known (see e.g. [KW97b, HKW99]) that grow logarithmically with the dimension n of the problem. Curiously enough, for the EG family of algorithms, the componentwise logarithm of the weight vector is a linear combination of the instances.3 If we add a 1-norm regularization to the loss, then GD behaves more like the EG algorithm (see dashed blue curve of Figure 2). In Figure 3 we plot the weights of the EG and GD algorithms (with optimized learning rates) when the target is the first column of a 100 dimensional random matrix. 1 Since the sample space is so small it is cleaner to require small average loss on all n instances than just the n ? k test instances. See [WV05] for a discussion. 2 Our setup is the same as the one used in [WV05], where such hardness results were proved for the square loss only. The generalization to the more general losses is non-trivial. 3 This is a simplification because it ignores the normalization. 2 Figure 3: In the learning problem the rows of a 100-dimensional random ?1 matrix are labeled by the first column. The x-axis is the number of instances k ? 1..100 seen by the algorithm. We plot all 100 weights of the GD algorithm (left), GD with 1-norm regularization (center) and the EG algorithm (right) as a function of k. The GD algorithms keeps lots of small weights around and the first weight grows only linearly. The EG algorithm wipes out the irrelevant weights much faster and brings up the good weight exponentially fast. GD with 1-norm regularization behaves like GD for small k and like EG for large k. The GD algorithm keeps all the small weight around and the weight of the first component only grows linearly. In contrast, the EG algorithm grows the target weight much faster. This is because in a GD algorithm the squared 2-norm regularization does not punish small weight enough (because wi2 ? 0 when wi is small). If we add a 1-norm regularization to the loss then the irrelevant weights of GD disappear more quickly and the algorithm behaves more like EG. Kernelization We clearly have a simple linear learning problem in Figure 1. So, can we help the class of algorithms that predicts with linear combinations of the instances by ?expanding? the instances with a feature map? In other words, we could replace the instance x by ?(x), where ? is any mapping from Rn to Rm , and m might be much larger than n (and can even be infinite dimensional). The weight vector is now a linear combination of the expanded instances and computing the dot product of this weight vector with a new expanded instance requires the computation of dot products between expanded instances.4 Even though the class of algorithms that predicts with a linear combination of instances is good at incorporating such an expansion (also referred to as an embedding into a feature space), we can show that our hardness results still hold even if any such expansion is used. In other words it does not help if the instances (rows) are represented by any other set of vectors in Rm . Note that the learner knows that it will receive examples from one of the n problems specified by the problem matrix M. The expansion is allowed to depend on M, but it has to be chosen before any examples are seen by the learner. Related work There is a long history for proving hardness results for the class of algorithms that predict with linear combinations of instances [KW97a, KWA97]. In particular, in [WV05] it was shown for the Hadamard matrix and the square loss, that the average loss is at least 1 ? nk even if an arbitrary expansion is used. This means, that if the algorithm is given half of all n instances, its average square loss is still half. The underlying model is a simple linear neuron. It was left as an open problem what happens for example for a sigmoided linear neuron and the logistic loss. Can the hardness result be circumvented by choosing different neuron and loss function? In this paper, we are able to show that this type of hardness results for algorithms that predict with a linear combination of the instances are robust to learning with a rather general class of linear neurons and more general loss functions. The hardness result of [WV05] for the square loss followed from a basic property of the Singular Value Decomposition. However, our hardness results require more complicated counting 4 This can often be done efficiently via a kernel function. Our result only requires that the dot products between the expanded instances are finite and the ? map can be defined implicitly via a kernel function. 3 techniques. For the more general class of loss functions we consider, the Hadamard matrix actually leads to a weaker bound and we had to use random matrices instead. Moreover, it was shown experimentally in [WV05] (and to some extent theoretically in [Ng04]) that the generalization bounds of 1-norm regularized linear regression grows logarithmically with the dimension n of the problem. Also, a linear lower bound for any algorithm that predicts with linear combinations of instances was given in Theorem 4.3 of [Ng04]. However, the given lower bound is based on the fact that the Vapnik Chervonienkis (VC) dimension of n-dimensional halfspaces is n + 1 and the resulting linear lower bound holds for any algorithm. No particular problem is given that is easy to learn by say multiplicative updates and hard to learn by GD. In contrast, we give a random problem in Figure 1 that is trivial to learn by some algorithms, but hard to learn by the natural and most commonly used class of algorithms which predicts with linear combinations of instances. Note, that the number of target concepts we are trying to learn is n, and therefore the VC dimension of our problem is at most log2 n. There is also a large body of work that shows that certain problems cannot be embedded with a large 2-norm margin (see [FS02, BDES02] and the more recent work on similarity functions [BBS08]). An embedding with large margins allows for good generalization bounds. This means that if a problem cannot be embedded with a large margin, then the generalization bounds based on the margin argument are weak. However we don?t know of any hardness results for the family of algorithms that predict with linear combinations in terms of a margin argument, i.e. lower bounds of generalization for this class of algorithms that is based on non-embeddability with large 2-norm margins. Random features The purpose of this type of research is to delineate which types of problems can or cannot be efficiently learned by certain classes of algorithms. We give a problem for which the sample complexity of the trivial algorithm is logarithmic in n, whereas it is linear in n for the natural class of algorithms that predicts with the linear combination of instances. However, why should we consider learning problems that pick columns out of a random matrix? Natural data is never random. However, the problem with this class of algorithms is much more fundamental. We will argue in Section 4 that those algorithms get confused by random irrelevant features. This is a problem if datasets are based on some physical phenomena and that contain at least some random or noisy features. It seems that because of the weak regularization of small weights (i.e. wi2 ? 0 when wi is small), the algorithms are given the freedom to fit noisy features. Outline After giving some notation in the next section and defining the class of loss functions we consider, we prove our main hardness result in Section 3. We then argue that the family of algorithms that predicts with linear combination of instances gets confused by random features (Section 4). Finally, we conclude by discussing related open problems regarding feed forward neural nets in Section 5: We conjecture that going from single neurons to neural nets does not help as long as the training algorithm is Gradient Descent with a squared Euclidean distance regularization. 2 Notations We will now describe our learning problem and some notations for representing algorithms that predict with a linear combination of instances. Let M be a ?1 valued problem matrix. For the sake of simplicity we assume M is square (n ? n). The i-th row of M (denoted as xi ) is the i-th instance vector, while the j-th column of M is the labeling of the instances by the j-th target. We allow the learner to map the instances to an m-dimensional feature space, that is, xi is replaced by ?(xi ), where ? : Rn ? Rm is an arbitrary mapping. We let Z ? Rn?m denote the new instance matrix with its i-th row being ?(xi ).5 5 The number of features m can even be infinite as long as the n2 dot products Z Z> between the expanded instances are all finite. On the other hand, m can also be less than n. 4 b to denote The algorithm is given the first k rows of Z labeled by one of the n targets. We use Z b the first k rows of Z. After seeing the rows of Z labeled by target i, the algorithm produces a linear b > ai , where ai combination wi of the k rows. Thus the weight vector wi takes the form wi = Z is the vector of the k linear coefficients. We aggregate the n weight vectors and coefficients into the m ? n and k ? n matrices, respectively: W := [w1 , . . . , wn ] and A = [a1 , . . . , an ]. Clearly, b > A. By applying the weight matrix to the instance matrix Z we can obtain the n ? n W = Z b > A. Note that Pij = ?(xi ) ? wj is the linear prediction matrix of the algorithm: P = Z W = Z Z activation of the algorithm produced for the i-th instance after receiving the first k rows of Z labeled with the j-th target. We are now interested to compare the prediction matrix with the problem matrix using a nonnegative loss function L : R ? {?1, 1} ? R?0 . We define the average loss of the algorithm as 1 X L(Pi,j , Mi,j ). n2 i,j Note that the loss is between linear activations and binary labels and we average it over instances and targets. Definition 1 We will call a loss function L : R ? {?1, 1} ? R?0 to be C-regular where C > 0, if L(a, y) ? C whenever a ? y ? 0, i.e. a and y have different signs. The loss function guarantees that if the algorithm produces a linear activation of a different sign, then a loss of at least C is incurred. Three commonly used 1-regular losses are the: ? Square Loss, L(a, y) = (a ? y)2 , used in Linear Regression. y?1 ? Logistic Loss, L(a, y) = ? y+1 2 log2 (?(a)) ? 2 log2 (1 ? ?(a)), used in Logistic Regres1 . sion. Here ?(a) denotes the sigmoid function 1+exp(?a) ? Hinge Loss, L(a, y) = max(0, 1 ? ay), used in Support Vector Machines. [WV05] obtained a linear lower bound for the square: Theorem 2 If the problem matrix M is the n dimensional Hadamard matrix, then for any algorithm that predicts with linear combinations of expanded training instances, the average square loss after observing k instances is at least 1 ? nk . b> A The key observation used in the proof of this theorem is that the prediction matrix P = Z Z b has only k rows. Using an elementary property of the singular value has rank at most k, because Z decomposition, the total squared loss k P ? M k22 can be bounded by the sum of the squares of the last n ? k singular values of the problem matrix M. The bound now follows from the fact that Hadamard matrices have a flat spectrum. Random matrices have a ?flat enough? spectrum and the same technique gives an expected linear lower bound for random problem matrices. Unfortunately the singular value argument only applies to the square loss. For example, for the logistic loss the problem is much different. In that case it would be natural to define the n ? n prediction matrix as b > A). However the rank of ?(Z W) jumps to n even for small values of k. Instead ?(Z W) = ?(Z Z > b A produced by the algorithm, and we keep the prediction matrix P as the n2 linear activations Z Z define the loss between linear activations and labels. This matrix still has rank at most k. In the next section, we will use this fact in a counting argument involving the possible sign patterns produced by low rank matrices. If the algorithms are allowed to start with a non-zero initial weight vector, then the hardness results essentially hold for the class of algorithms that predict with linear combinations of this weight vector and the k expanded training instances. The only difference is that the rank of the prediction matrix is now at most k + 1 instead of k and therefore the lower bound of the above theorem becomes 1 ? k+1 n instead of 1 ? nk . Our main result also relies on the rank of the prediction matrix and therefore it allows for a similar adjustment of the bound when an initial weight vector is used. 5 3 Main Result In this section we present a new technique for proving lower bounds on the average loss for the sparse learning problem discussed in this paper. The lower bound applies to any regular loss and is based on counting the number of sign-patterns that can be generated by a low-rank matrix. Bounds on the number of such sign patterns were first introduced in [AFR85]. As a corollary of our method, we also obtain a lower bound for the ?rigidity? of random matrices. Theorem 3 Let L be a C-regular loss function. A random n?n problem matrix M almost certainly has the property that for any algorithm that predicts with linear combinations of expanded training 1 instances, the average square loss L after observing k instances is at least 4C ( 20 ? nk ). Proof C-regular losses are at least C if the sign of the linear activation for an example does not match the label. So, we can focus on counting the number of linear activations that have wrong signs. Let P be the n?n prediction matrix after receiving k instances. Furthermore let sign(P) ? {?1, 1}n?n denote the sign-pattern of P. For the sake of simplicity, we define sign(0) as 1. This simplification underestimates the number of disagreements. However we still have the property that for any Cregular loss: L(a, y) ? C| sign(a) ? y|/2. We now count the number of entries on which sign(P) disagrees with M. We use the fact that P has rank at most k. The number of sign patterns of n ? m rank ? k matrices is bounded as follows (This was essentially shown6 in [AFR85], the exact bound we use below is a refinement given in [Sre04]):  k(n+m) 8e ? 2 ? nm f (n, m, k) ? . k(n + m) Setting n = m = a ? k, we get 2 f (n, n, n/a) ? 2(6+2 log2 (e?a))?n /a . Now, suppose that we allow additional up to r = ?n2 signs of sign(P) to be flipped. In other words, we consider the set Snk (r) of sign-patterns having Hamming distance at most r from any sign-pattern produced from a matrix of rank at most k. For a fixed sign-pattern, the number g(n, ?) of matrices obtained by flipping at most r entries is the number of subsets of size r or less that can be flipped: ?n2  2  X 2 n g(n, ?) = ? 2H(?)n . i i=0 Here, H denotes the binary entropy. The above bound holds for any ? ? bounds described above, we can finally estimate the size of Snk (r): 2 2  |Snk (r)| ? f (n, n, n/a) ? g(n, ?) ? 2(6+2 log2 (e?a))?n /a ? 2H(?)n = 2 1 2. Combining the two  6+2 log2 (e?a) +H(?) a n2 . Notice, that if the problem matrix M does not belong to Snk (r), then our prediction matrix P will make more than r sign errors. We assumed that M is selected randomly from the set {?1, 1}n?n 2 which contains 2n elements. From simple asymptotic analysis, we can conclude that for large enough n, the set Snk (r) will be much smaller than {?1, 1}n?n , if the following condition holds: 6 + 2 log2 (e ? a) + H(?) ? 1 ? ? < 1. a (1) In that case, the probability of a random problem matrix belonging to Snk (r) is at most 2 2 2(1??)n = 2??n ?? 0. 2 n 2 We can numerically solve Inequality (1) for ? by comparing the left-hand side expression to 1. Figure 4 shows the plot of ? against the value of nk = a?1 . From this, we can obtain the simple 6 Note that they count {?1, 0, 1} sign patterns. However by mapping 0?s to 1?s we do not increase the number of sign patterns. 6 Figure 4: Lower bound for average error. The solid line is obtained by solving inequality (1). The dashed line is a simple linear bound. Figure 5: We plot the distance of the unit vector to a subspace formed by k randomly chosen instances. 1 ? nk ) = 15 ? 4 nk , because it satisfies the strict inequality for ? = 0.005. It is linear bound of 4( 20 easy to estimate, that this bound will hold for n = 40 with probability approximately 0.996, and for larger n that probability converges to 1 even faster than exponentially. It remains to observe that each sign error incurs at least loss C, which gives us the desired bound for the average loss of the algorithm. 2 The technique used in our proof also gives an interesting insight into the rigidity of random matrices. Typically, the rigidity RM (r) of a matrix M is defined as the minimum number of entries that need eM (r), is to be changed to reduce the rank of M to r. In [FS06], a different rigidity measure, R considered, which only counts the sign-non-preserving changes. The bounds shown there depend on the SVD spectrum of a matrix. However, if we consider a random matrix, then a much stronger lower bound can be obtained with high probability: Corollary 4 For a random matrix M ? {?1, 1}n?n and 0 < r < n, almost certainly the minimum number of sign-non-preserving changes to a matrix in Rn?n that is needed to reduce the rank of the matrix to r is at least 2 eM (r) ? n ? 4rn. R 5 Note that the rigidity bound given in [FS06] also applies to our problem, if we use the Hadamard matrix as the problem matrix. ?In this case, the lower bound is much weaker and no longer linear. Notably, it implies that at least n instances are needed to get the average loss down to zero (and this is conjectured to be tight for Hadamard matrices). In contrast our lower bound for random matrices assures that ?(n) instances are required to get the average loss down to zero. 4 Random features In this section, we argue that the family of algorithms whose weight vector is a linear combination of the instances gets confused by random features. Assume we have n instances that are labeled by a single ?1 feature. We represent this feature as a single column. Now, we add random additional features. For the sake of concreteness, we add n ? 1 of them. So our learning problem is again described by an n dimensional square matrix: The n rows are the instances and the target is the unit vector e1 . In Figure 5, we plot the average distance of the vector e1 to the subspace formed by a subset of k instances. This is the closest a linearqcombination of the k instances can get to the target. We show experimentally, that this distance is 1 ? nk on average. This means, that the target e1 cannot be expressed by linear combinations of instances until essentially all instances are seen (i.e. k is close to n). 7 It is also very important to understand that expanding the instances using a feature map can be costly because a few random features may be expanded into many ?weakly random? features that are still random enough to confuse the family of algorithms that predict with linear combination of instances. For example, using a polynomial kernel, n random features may be expanded to nd features and now the sample complexity grows with nd instead of n. 5 Open problems regarding neural networks We believe that our hardness results for picking single features out of random vectors carry over to feed forward neural nets provided that they are trained with Gradient Descent (Backpropatation) regularized with the squared Euclidean distance (Weight Decay). More precisely, we conjecture that if we restrict ourself to Gradient Descent with squared Euclidean distance regularization, then additional layers cannot improve the average loss on the problem described in Figure 1 and the bounds from Theorem 3 still hold. On the other hand if 1-norm regularization is used, then Gradient Descent behaves more like the Exponentiated Gradient algorithm and the hardness result can be avoided. One can view the feature vectors arriving at the output node as an expansion of the input instances. Our lower bounds already hold for fixed expansions (i.e. the same expansion must be used for all targets). In the neural net setting the expansion arriving at the output node is adjusted during training and our techniques for proving hardness results fail in this case. However, we conjecture that the features learned from the k training examples cannot help to improve its average performance, provided its training algorithm is based on the Gradient Descent or Weight Decay heuristic. Note that our conjecture is not fully specified: what initialization is used, which transfer functions, are there bias terms, etc. We believe that the conjecture is robust to many of those details. We have tested our conjecture on neural nets with various numbers of layers and standard transfer functions (including the rectifier function). Also in our experiments, the dropout heuristic [HSK+ 12] did not improve the average loss. However at this point we have only experimental evidence which will always be insufficient to prove such a conjecture. It is also an interesting question to study whether random features can confuse a feed forward neural net that is trained with Gradient Descent. Additional layers may hurt such training algorithms when some random features are in the input. We conjecture that any such algorithm requires at least O(1) additional examples per random redundant feature to achieve the same average accuracy. References [AFR85] N. Alon, P. Frankl, and V. R?odel. Geometrical realization of set systems and probabilistic commnunication complexity. In Proceedings of the 26th Annual Symposium on the Foundations of Computer Science (FOCS), pages 277?280, Portland, OR, USA, 1985. IEEE Computer Society. [BBS08] Maria-Florina Balcan, Avrim Blum, and Nathan Srebro. Improved Guarantees for Learning via Similarity Functions. In Rocco A. Servedio and Tong Zhang, editors, COLT, pages 287?298. Omnipress, 2008. [BDES02] S. Ben-David, N. Eiron, and H. U. Simon. Limitations of learning via embeddings in Euclidean half-spaces. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3:441?461, November 2002. [FS02] J. Forster and H. U. Simon. On the smallest possible dimension and the largest possible margin of linear arrangements representing given concept classes. In Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Algorithmic Learning Theory, number 2533 in Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pages 128?138, London, UK, 2002. Springer-Verlag. [FS06] J. Forster and H. U. Simon. On the smallest possible dimension and the largest possible margin of linear arrangements representing given concept classes. Theor. Comput. Sci., pages 40?48, 2006. [HKW99] D. P. Helmbold, J. Kivinen, and M. K. Warmuth. Relative loss bounds for single neurons. IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, 10(6):1291?1304, November 1999. 8 [HSK+ 12] Geoffrey E. Hinton, Nitish Srivastava, Alex Krizhevsky, Ilya Sutskever, and Ruslan R. Salakhutdinov. Improving neural networks by preventing co-adaptation of feature detectors. CoRR, abs/1207.0580, 2012. [KW71] G. S. Kimeldorf and G. Wahba. Some results on Tchebycheffian Spline Functions. J. Math. Anal. Applic., 33:82?95, 1971. [KW97a] J. Kivinen and M. K. Warmuth. Additive versus Exponentiated Gradient updates for linear prediction. Information and Computation, 132(1):1?64, January 1997. [KW97b] J. Kivinen and M. K. Warmuth. Exponentiated gradient versus gradient descent for linear predictors. Information and Computation, 132(1):1?64, January 1997. [KWA97] J. Kivinen, M. K. Warmuth, and P. Auer. The perceptron algorithm vs. winnow: linear vs. logarithmic mistake bounds when few input variables are relevant. Artificial Intelligence, 97:325?343, December 1997. [Ng04] A. Y. Ng. Feature selection, L1 vs. L2 regularization, and rotational invariance. In Proceedings of Twentyfirst International Conference in Machine Learning, pages 615? 622, Banff, Alberta, Canada, 2004. ACM Press. [SHS01] B. Sch?olkopf, R. Herbrich, and A. J. Smola. A generalized Representer Theorem. In D. P. Helmbold and B. Williamson, editors, Proceedings of the 14th Annual Conference on Computational Learning Theory, number 2111 in Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pages 416?426, London, UK, 2001. Springer-Verlag. [Sre04] N. Srebro. Learning with Matrix Factorizations. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2004. [WKZ14] M. K. Warmuth, W. Kot?owski, and S. Zhou. Kernelization of matrix updates. Journal of Theoretical Computer Science, 2014. Special issue for the 23nd International Conference on Algorithmic Learning Theory (ALT 12), to appear. [WV05] M. K. Warmuth and S.V.N. Vishwanathan. Leaving the span. In Proceedings of the 18th Annual Conference on Learning Theory (COLT ?05), Bertinoro, Italy, June 2005. Springer-Verlag. 9
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?How hard is my MDP?? The distribution-norm to the rescue Odalric-Ambrym Maillard The Technion, Haifa, Israel odalric-ambrym.maillard@ens-cachan.org Timothy A. Mann The Technion, Haifa, Israel mann.timothy@gmail.com Shie Mannor The Technion, Haifa, Israel shie@ee.technion.ac.il Abstract In Reinforcement Learning (RL), state-of-the-art algorithms require a large number of samples per state-action pair to estimate the transition kernel p. In many problems, a good approximation of p is not needed. For instance, if from one state-action pair (s, a), one can only transit to states with the same value, learning p(?|s, a) accurately is irrelevant (only its support matters). This paper aims at capturing such behavior by de?ning a novel hardness measure for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) based on what we call the distribution-norm. The distributionnorm w.r.t. a measure ? is de?ned on zero ?-mean functions f by the standard variation of f with respect to ?. We ?rst provide a concentration inequality for the dual of the distribution-norm. This allows us to replace the problem-free, loose || ? ||1 concentration inequalities used in most previous analysis of RL algorithms, with a tighter problem-dependent hardness measure. We then show that several common RL benchmarks have low hardness when measured using the new norm. The distribution-norm captures ?ner properties than the number of states or the diameter and can be used to assess the dif?culty of MDPs. 1 Introduction The motivation for this paper started with a question: Why are the number of samples needed for Reinforcement Learning (RL) in practice so much smaller than those given by theory? Can we improve this? In Markov Decision Processes (MDPs, Puterman (1994)), when the performance is measured by (1) the sample complexity (Kearns and Singh, 2002; Kakade, 2003; Strehl and Littman, 2008; Szita and Szepesv?ari, 2010) or (2) the regret (Bartlett and Tewari, 2009; Jaksch, 2010; Ortner, 2012), algorithms have been developed that achieve provably near-optimal performance. Despite this, one can often solve MDPs in practice with far less samples than required by current theory. One possible reason for this disconnect between theory and practice is because the analysis of RL algorithms has focused on bounds that hold for the most dif?cult MDPs. While it is interesting to know how an RL algorithm will perform for the hardest MDPs, most MDPs we want to solve in practice are far from pathological. Thus, we want algorithms (and analysis) that perform appropriately with respect to the hardness of the MDP it is facing. A natural way to ?ll this gap is to formalize a ?hardness? metric for MDPs and show that MDPs from the literature that were solved with few samples are not ?hard? according to this metric. For ?nite-state MDPs, usual metrics appearing in performance bounds of MDPs include the number of states and actions, the maximum of the value function in the discounted setting, and the diameter or sometimes the span of the bias function in the undiscounted setting. They only capture limited properties of the MDP. Our goal in this paper is to propose a more re?ned notion of hardness. 1 Previous work Despite the rich literature on MDPs, there has been surprisingly little work on metrics capturing the dif?culty of learning MDPs. In Jaksch (2010), the authors introduce the UCRL algorithm for undiscounted MDPs, whose regret scales with the diameter D of the MDP, a quantity that captures the time to reach any state from any other. In Bartlett and Tewari (2009), the authors modify UCRL to achieve regret that scales with the span of the bias function, which can be arbitrarily smaller than D. The resulting algorithm, REGAL achieves smaller regret, but it is an open question whether the algorithm can be implemented. Closely related to our proposed solution, in Filippi et al. (2010) the authors provide a modi?ed version of UCRL, called KL-UCRL that uses modi?ed con?dence intervals on the transition kernel based on Kullback-Leibler divergence rather than || ? ||1 control on the error. The resulting algorithm is reported to work better in practice, although this is not re?ected in the theoretical bounds. Farahmand (2011) introduced a metric for MDPs called the action-gap. This work is the closest in spirit to our approach. The actiongap captures the dif?culty of distinguishing the optimal policy from near-optimal policies, and is complementary to the notion of hardness proposed here. However, the action-gap has mainly been used for planning, instead of learning, which is our main focus. In the discounted setting, several works have improved the bounds with respect to the number of states (Szita and Szepesv?ari, 2010) and the discount factor (Lattimore and Hutter, 2012). However, these analyses focus on worst case bounds that do not scale with the hardness of the MDP, missing an opportunity to help bridge the gap between theory and practice. Contributions Our main contribution is a re?ned metric for the hardness of MDPs, that captures the observed ?easiness? of common benchmark MDPs. To accomplish this we ?rst introduce a norm induced by a distribution ?, aka the distribution-norm. For functions f with zero ?-expectation, ||f ||? is the variance of f . We de?ne the dual of this norm in Lemma 1, and then study its concentration properties in Theorem 1. This central result is of independent interest beyond its application in RL. More precisely, for a discrete probability measure p and its empirical version p?n built from n i.i.d samples, we control ||p ? p?n ||?,p in O((np0 )?1/2 ), where p0 is the minimum mass of p on its support. Second, we de?ne a hardness measure for MDPs based on the distribution-norm. This measure captures stochasticity along the value function. This quantity is naturally small in MDPs that are nearly deterministic, but it can also be small in MDPs with highly stochastic transition kernels. For instance, this is the case when all states reachable from a state have the same value. We show that some common benchmark MDPs have small hardness measure. This illustrates that our proposed norm is a useful tool for the analysis and design of existing and future RL algorithms. Outline In Section 2, we formalize the distribution-norm, and give intuition about the interplay with its dual. We compare to distribution-independent norms. Theorem 1 provides a concentration inequality for the dual of this norm, that is of independent interest beyond the MDP setting. Section 3 uses these insights to de?ne a problem-dependent hardness metric for both undiscounted and discounted MDPs (De?nition 2, De?nition 1), that we call the environmental norm. Importantly, we show in section 3.2 that common benchmark MDPs have small environmental norm C in this sense, and compare our bound to approaches bounding the problem-free || ? ||1 norm. 2 The distribution-norm and its dual In Machine Learning (ML), norms often play a crucial role in obtaining performance bounds. One typical example is the following. Let X be a measurable space equipped with an unknown probability measure ? ? M1 (X ) with density p. Based on some procedure, an algorithm produces a candidate measure ?? ? M1 (X ) with density p?. One is then interested in the loss with respect to a continuous function f . It is natural to look at the mismatch between ? and ?? on f . That is ? ? f (x)(? ? ??)(dx) = f (x)(p(x) ? p?(x))dx . (? ? ??, f ) = X X A typical bound on this quantity is obtained by applying a H?older inequality to f and p ? p?, which gives (? ? ??, f ) ? ||p ? p?||1 ||f ||? . Assuming a bound is known for ||f ||? , this inequality can be controlled with a bound on ||p ? p?||1 . When X is ?nite and p? is the empirical distribution p?n estimated from n i.i.d. samples of p, results such as Weissman et al. (2003) can be applied to bound this term with high probability. However, in this learning problem, what matters is not f but the way f behaves with respect to ?. Thus, trying to capture the properties of f via the distribution-free ||f ||? bound is not satisfactory. So we propose, instead, a norm || ? ||? driven by ?. Well-behaving f will have small norm ||f ||? , whereas badly-behaving f will have large norm ||f ||? . Every distribution has a natural norm asso2 ciated with it that measures the quadratic variations of f with respect to ?. This quantity is at the heart of many key results in mathematical statistics, and is formally de?ned by ?? ? ?2 f (x) ? E? f ?(dx) . ||f ||? = (1) X To get a norm, we restrict C(X ) to the space of continuous functions E? = {f ? C(X ) : ||f ||? < ?, supp(?) ? supp(f ), E? f = 0} . We then de?ne the corresponding dual space in a standard way by E?? = {? : ||?||?,? < ?} where ? f (x)?(dx) ||?||?,? = sup x . ||f ||? f ?E? Note that for f ? E? , using the fact the ?(X ) = ??(X ) = 1 and that x ? f (x) ? E? f is a zero mean function, we immediately have (? ? ??, f ) = ? (? ? ??, f ? E? f ) ||p ? p?||?,? ||f ? E? f ||? . (2) The key difference with the generic H?older inequality is that || ? ||? is now capturing the behavior of f with respect to ?, as opposed to || ? ||? . Conceptually, using a quadratic norm instead of an L1 norm, as we do here, is analogous to moving from Hoeffding?s inequality to Bernstein?s inequality in the framework of concentration inequalities. We are interested in situations where ||f ||? is much smaller than ||f ||? . That is, f is well-behaving with respect to ?. In such cases, we can get an improved bound ||p ? p?||?,? ||f ? E? f ||? instead of the best possible generic bound inf c?R ||p ? p?||1 ||f ? c||? . Simply controlling either ||p ? p?||?,? (respectively ||p ? p?||1 ) or ||f ||? (respectively ||f ||? ) is not enough. What matters is the product of these quantities. For our choice of norm, we show that ||p ? p?||?,? concentrates at essentially the same speed as ||p ? p?||1 , but ||f ||? is typically much larger than ||f ||? for the typical functions met in the analysis of MDPs. We do not claim that the norm de?ned in equation (1) is the best norm that leads to a minimal ||p ? p?||?,? ||f ? E? f ||? , but we show that it is an interesting candidate. We proceed in two steps. First, we design in Section 2 a concentration bound for ||p ? p?n ||?,? that is not much larger than the Weissman et al. (2003) bound on ||p ? p?n ||1 . (Note that ||p ? p?n ||?,? must be larger than ||p ? p?n ||1 as it captures a re?ned property). Second, in Section 3, we consider RL in an MDP where p represents the transition kernel of a station-action pair and f represents the value function of the MDP for a policy. The value function and p are strongly linked by construction, and the distribution-norm helps us capture their interplay. We show in Section 3.2 that common benchmark MDPs have optimal value functions with small || ? ||? norm. This naturally introduces a new way to capture the hardness of MDPs, besides the diameter (Jaksch, 2010) or the span (Bartlett and Tewari, 2009). Our formal notion of MDP hardness is summarized in De?nitions 1 and 2, for discounted and undiscounted MDPs, respectively. 2.1 A dual-norm concentration inequality For convenience we consider a ?nite space X = {1, . . . , S} with S points. We focus on the ?rst term on the right hand side of (2), which corresponds to the dual norm when p? = p?n is the empirical mean built from n i.i.d. samples from the distribution ?. We denote by p the probability vector corresponding to ?. The following lemma, whose proof is in the supplementary material, provides a convenient way to compute the dual norm. Lemma 1 Assume that X = {1, . . . , S}, and, without loss of generality, that supp(p) = {1, . . . , K}, with K ? S. Then the following equality holds true ? ?K ?? p?2n,s ? p2s . ||? pn ? p||?,p = ? ps s=1 Now we provide a ?nite-sample bound on our proposed norm. 3 Theorem 1 (Main result) Assume that supp(p) = {1, . . . , K}, with K ? S. Then for all ? ? (0, 1), with probability higher?than 1 ? ?, ? ? ? ?? ? 1 1 1 K ?1 (2n ? 1) ln(1/?) +2 ||? pn ? p||?,p ? min , (3) ? 1, ? p(K) n n2 p(K) p(1) where p(K) is the smallest non zero component of p = (p1 , . . . , pS ), and p(1) the largest one. The proof follows an adaptation of Maurer and Pontil (2009) for empirical Bernstein bounds, and uses results for self-bounded functions from the same paper. This gives tighter bounds than naive concentration inequalities (Hoeffding, Bernstein, etc.). We indeed get a O(n?1/2 ) scaling, whereas using simpler techniques would lead to a weak O(n?1/4 ) scaling. Proof We will apply Theorem 7 of Maurer and Pontil (2009). Using the notation of this theorem, we denote the sample by X = (X1 , . . . , Xn ) and the function we want to control by V(X) = ||? pn ? p||2?,p . We now introduce, for any s ? S the modi?ed sample Xi0 ,s = (X1 , . . . , Xi0 ?1 , s, Xi0 +1 , . . . , Xn ). We are interested in the quantity V(X)?V(Xi0 ,s ). To apply Theorem 7 of Maurer and Pontil (2009), we need to identify constants a, b such that ? ?i ? [n], V(X) ? inf s?S V(Xi,s ) ? b ?2 ?n ? ? aV(X) . i=1 V(X) ? inf s?S V(Xi,s ) The two following lemmas enable us to identify a and b. They follow from simple algebra and are proved in Appendix A in the supplementary material. ? ? Lemma 2 V(X) satis?es Ep V(X) = K?1 n . Moreover, for all i ? {1, . . . , n} we have that ? ? 1 2n ? 1 1 . ? V(X) ? inf V(Xi,s ) ? b , where b = s?S n2 p(K) p(1) Lemma 3 V(X) = ||? pn ? p||2?,p satis?es n ? ?2 ? V(X) ? inf V(Xi,s ) ? 2bV(X) . i=1 s?S ? Thus, we can choose a = 2b. By application of Theorem 7 of Maurer and Pontil (2009) to V(X) = V(X)/b, we deduce that for all ? > 0, ? ? ? ? ?2 ? ? . P V(X) ? EV(X) > ? ? exp ? ? 4EV(X) + 2? ? Plugging back in the de?nition of V(X), we obtain ? ? ? ? ?2 /b K ?1 2 P ||? pn ? p||?,p > +? ? exp ? K?1 . n 4 n + 2? ? ? ? After inverting this bound in ? and using the fact that a + b ? a + b for non-negative a, b, we deduce that for all ? ? (0, 1), with probability higher than 1 ? ?, then ? ||? pn ? p||2?,p ? EV(X) + 2 EV(X)b ln(1/?) + 2b log(1/?) ? ?2 ? ? = EV(X) + b ln(1/?) + b log(1/?) . Thus, we deduce from this inequality that ? ? EV(X) + 2 b ln(1/?) ||? pn ? p||?,p ? ? ? ? ? 1 K ?1 (2n ? 1) ln(1/?) 1 +2 , ? = n n2 p(K) p(1) ?1/2 which concludes the proof. We recover here a O(n?1/2 ) behavior, more precisely a O(p?1 ) (K) n ? scaling where p(K) is the smallest non zero probability mass of p. 4 3 Hardness measure in Reinforcement Learning using the distribution-norm In this section, we apply the insights from Section 2 for the distribution-norm to learning in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). We start by de?ning a formal notion of hardness C for discounted MDPs and undiscounted MDPs with average reward, that we call the environmental norm. Then, we show in Section 3.2 that several benchmark MDPs have small environmental norm. In Section 3.1, we present a regret bound for a modi?cation of UCRL whose regret scales with C, without having to know C in advance. De?nition 1 (Discounted MDP) Let M =< S, A, r, p, ? > be a ?-discounted MDP, with reward function r and transition kernel p. We denote V ? the value function corresponding to a policy ? (Puterman, 1994). We de?ne the environmental-value norm of policy ? in MDP M by ? CM = max ||V ? ||p(?|s,a) . s,a?S?A De?nition 2 (Undiscounted MDP) Let M =< S, A, r, p > be an undiscounted MDP, with reward function r and transition kernel p. We denote by h? the bias function for policy ? (Puterman, 1994; Jaksch, 2010). We de?ne the environmental-value norm of policy ? in MDP M by the quantity ? = max ||h? ||p(?|s,a) . CM s,a?S?A 1 1 ? In the discounted setting with bounded rewards in [0, 1], V ? ? 1?? and thus CM ? 1?? as well. ? ? ? ? ? span(h ), and thus C ? span(h ). We de?ne In the undiscounted setting, then ||h ||p(?|s,a) M ? ? the class of C-?hard? MDPs by MC = ? ? M : CM ? C . That is, the class of MDPs with optimal policy having a low environmental-value norm, or for short, MDPs with low environmental norm. Important note It may be tempting to think that, since the above de?nition captures a notion of variance, an MDP that is very noisy will have a high environmental norm. However this reasoning is incorrect. The environmental norm of an MDP is not the variance of a roll-out trajectory, but rather captures the variations of the value (or the bias value) function with respect to the transition kernel. For example, consider a fully connected MDP with transition kernel that transits to every ? state uniformly at random, but with a constant reward function. In this trivial MDP, CM = 0 for all policies ?, even though the MDP is extremely noisy because the value function is constant. In general MDPs, the environmental norm depends on how varied the value function is at the possible next states and on the distribution over next states. Note also that we use the term hardness rather than complexity to avoid confusion with such concepts as Rademacher or VC complexity. 3.1 ?Easy? MDPs and algorithms In this section, we demonstrate how the dual norm (instead of the usual || ? ||1 norm) can lead to improved bounds for learning in MDPs with small environmental norm. Discounted MDPs Due to space constraints, we only report one proposition that illustrates the kind of achievable results. Indeed, our goal is not to derive a modi?ed version of each existing algorithm for the discounted scenario, but rather to instill the key idea of using a re?ned hardness measure when deriving the core lemmas underlying the analysis of previous (and future) algorithms. The analysis of most RL algorithms for the discounted case uses a ?simulation lemma? (Kearns and Singh, 2002); see also Strehl and Littman (2008) for a re?ned version. A simulation lemma bounds the error in the value function of running a policy planned on an estimated MDP in the MDP where the samples were taken from. This effectively controls the number of samples needed from each state-action pair to derive a near-optimal policy. The following result is a simulation lemma exploiting our proposed notion of hardness (the environmental norm). Proposition 1 Let M be a ?-discounted MDP with deterministic rewards. For a policy ?, let us denote its corresponding value V ? . We denote by p the transition kernel of M , and for convenience use the notation p? (s? |s) for p(s? |s, ?(s)). Now, let p? be an estimate of the transition kernel such that maxs?S ||p? (?|s) ? p?? (?|s)||?,p? (?|s) ? ? and let us denote V? ? its corresponding value in the MDP with kernel p?. Then, the maximal expected error between the two values is bounded by ? ? ? ? ?? ?C ? def , Err? = max Ep? (?|s0 ) V ? ? Ep?? (?|s0 ) V? ? ? s0 ?S 1?? ? where C ? = maxs,a?S?A ||V ? ||p(?|s,a) . In particular, for the optimal policy ? ? , then C ? ? C. 5 To understand when this lemma results in smaller sample sizes, we need to compare to what one would get using the standard || ? ||1 decomposition, for an MDP with rewards in [0, 1]. If maxs?S ||p? (?|s) ? p?? (?|s)||1 ? ?? , then one would get ? ?? VMAX ?? ?span(V ? ) ? ? Err? ? . 1?? 1?? (1 ? ?)2 When, for example, C is a bound with respect to all policies, this simulation lemma can be plugged directly into the analysis of R-MAX (Kakade, 2003) or MBIE (Strehl and Littman, 2008) to obtain a hardness-sensitive bound on the sample complexity. Now, in most analyses, one only needs to bound the hardness with respect to the optimal policy and to the optimistic/greedy policies actually used by the algorithm. For an optimal policy ? ? computed from an (?, ?? )-approximate model (see ? ? Lemma 4 for details), it is not dif?cult to show that C ?? ? C ? + (?? C ? + ?)/(1 ? ?), which thus allows for a tighter analysis. We do not report further results here, to avoid distracting the reader from the main message of the paper, which is the introduction of a distribution-dependent hardness metric for MDPs. Likewise, we do not detail the steps that lead from this result to the various sample-complexity bounds one can ?nd in the abundant literature on the topic, as it would not be more illuminating than Proposition 1. Undiscounted MDPs In the undiscounted setting, with average reward criterion, it is natural to consider the UCRL algorithm from Jaksch (2010). We modify the de?nition of plausible MDPs used in the algorithm as follows: Using the same notations as that of Jaksch (2010), we replace the admissibility condition for a candidate transition kernel p? at the beginning of episode k at time tk ? 14S log(2Atk /?) , ||? pk (?|s, a) ? p?(?|s, a)||1 ? max{1, Nk (s, a)} with the following condition involving the result of Theorem 1 def ||? pk (?|s, a) ? p?(?|s, a)||?,p(?|s,a) ? Bk (s, a) = ? ? ? ?? ? ?? 1 1 K ?1 (2Nk (s, a) ? 1) ln(tk SA/?) 1 min ? 1, ? +2 , (4) p0 max{1, Nk (s, a)} max{1, Nk (s, a)}2 p?(K) p?(1) where p?(K) is the smallest non zero component of p?(?|s, a), and p?(1) the largest one, and K is the size of the support of p?(?|s, a). We here assume for simplicity that the transition kernel p of the MDP always puts at least p0 mass on each point of its support, and thus constraint an admissible kernel p? to satisfy the same condition. One restriction of the current (simple) analysis is that the algorithm needs to know a bound on p0 in advance. We believe it is possible to remove such an assumption by estimating p0 and taking care of the additional low probability event corresponding to the estimation error. As this comes at the price of a more complicated algorithm and analysis, we do not report this extension here for clarity. Note that the optimization problem corresponding to Extended Value Iteration with (4) can still be solved by optimizing over the simplex. We refer to Jaksch (2010) for implementation details. Naturally, similar modi?cations apply also to REGAL and other UCRL variants introduced in the MDP literature. In order to assess the performance of the policy chosen by UCRL it is useful to show the following: ? be two communicating MDPs over the same state-action space such that Lemma 4 Let M and M one is an (?, ?? )-approximation of the other in the sense that for all s, a |r(s, a) ? r?(s, a)| ? ? and ||? p(?|s, a) ? p(?|s, a)||?,p(?|s,a) ? ?? . Let ?? (M ) denotes the average value function of M . Then ? )||p ? ?? min{CM , C ? } + ? . ||?? (M ) ? ?? (M M Lemma 4 is a simple adaptation from Ortner et al. (2014). We now provide a bound on the regret of this modi?ed UCRL algorithm. The regret bound turns out to be a bit better than UCRL in the case of an MDP M ? MC with a small C. Proposition 2 Let us consider a ?nite-state MDP with S state, low environmental norm (M ? MC ) and diameter D. Assume moreover that the transition kernel that always puts at least p0 mass on each point of its support. Then, the modi?ed UCRL algorithm run with condition (4) is such that for all ?, with probability higher than 1 ? ?, for all T , the regret after T steps is bounded by ? ?? ?? ? ? ? log(T SA/?) ? ? T RT = O DC SA + S +D log(T SA/?) . p0 p0 6 ? ? ? The regret bound for the original UCRL from Jaksch (2010) scales as O DS AT log(T SA/?) . Since we used some crude upper bounds in parts?of the proof of Proposition ? 2, we believe the ? T SA right scaling for the bound of Proposition 2 is O C p0 log(T SA/?) . The cruder factors come from some second order terms that we controlled trivially to avoid technical and not very illuminating considerations. What matters here is that C appears as a factor of the leading term. Indeed proposition 2 is mostly here for illustration purpose of what one can achieve, and improving on the other terms is technical and goes beyond the scope of this paper. Comparing the two regret bounds, the result of Proposition 2 provides a qualitative improvement over the result of Jaksch ? ? (2010) whenever C < D Sp0 (respectively C < Sp0 ) for the conjectured (resp. current) result. Note. The modi?ed UCRL algorithm does not need to know the environmental norm C of the MDP in advance. It only appears in the analysis and in the ?nal regret bound. This property is similar to that of UCRL with respect to the diameter D. 3.2 The hardness of benchmarks MDPs In this section, we consider the hardness of a set of MDPs that have appeared in past literature. Table 3.2 summarizes the results for six MDPs that were chosen to be both representative of typical ?nite-states MDPs but also cover a diverse range of tasks. These MDPs are also signi?cant in the sense that good solutions for them have been learned with far fewer samples then suggested by existing theoretical bounds. The metrics we report include the number of states S, ? ?? ), the span of V ? , the CM , and the number of actions A, the maximum of V ? (denoted VMAX p0 = min ? min p(s? |s, a), that is the minimum non-zero probability mass given by the s?S,a?A s ?supp(p(?|s,a) transition kernel of the MDP. While we cannot compute the hardness for all policies, the hardness with respect to ? ? is signi?cant because it indicates how hard it is to learn the value function V ? ?? ? of the optimal policy. Notice that CM is signi?cantly smaller than both VMAX and span(V ? ) in all the MDPs. This suggests that a model accurately representing the optimal value function can be ? derived with a small number of samples (and a bound based on ? ? ?1 VMAX is overly conservative). MDP bottleneck McGovern and Barto (2001) red herring Hester and Stone (2009) taxi ? Dietterich (1998) inventory ? Mankowitz et al. (2014) mountain car ? ? ? Sutton and Barto (1998) pinball ? ? ? Konidaris and Barto (2009) S 231 121 500 101 150 2304 A 4 4 6 2 3 5 ? VMAX 19.999 17.999 7.333 19.266 19.999 19.999 Span(V ? ) 19.999 17.999 0.885 0.963 19.999 19.991 ? ? CM 0.526 4.707 0.055 0.263 1.296 0.059 p0 0.1 0.1 0.043 < 10?3 0.322 < 10?3 Table 1: MDPs marked with a ? indicate that the true MDP was not available and so it was estimated from samples. We estimated these MDPs with 10, 000 samples from each stateaction pair. MDPs marked with a ? indicate that the original MDP is deterministic and therefore we added noise to the transition dynamics. For the Mountain Car problem, we added a small amount of noise to the vehicle?s velocity during each step (post+1 = post + velt (1 + X) where X is a random variable with equally probable events {?velM AX , 0, velM AX }). For the pinball domain we added noise similar to Tamar et al. (2013). MDPs marked with a ? were discretized to create a ?nite state MDP. The rewards of all MDPs were normalized to [0, 1] and discount factor ? = 0.95 was used. To understand the environmental-value norm of near-optimal policies ? in an MDP, we ran policy iteration on each of the benchmark MDPs from Table 3.2 for 100 iterations (see supplementary material for further details). We computed the environmental-value norm of all encountered policies and selected the policy ? with maximal norm and its corresponding worst case distribution. Figure 1 ? as the compares the Weissman et al. (2003) bound ?VMAX to the bound given by Theorem 1 ?CM number of samples increases. This is indeed the comparison of this products that matters for the learning regret, rather than that of one or the other factor only. In each MDP, we see an order of magnitude improvement by exploiting the distribution-norm. This is particularly signi?cant because the Weissman et al. (2003) bound is quite close to the behavior observed in experiments. The result in Figure 1 strengthens support for our theoretical ?ndings, suggesting that bounds based on the distribution-norm scale with the MDP?s hardness. 7 Bottleneck Theorem1 ?C ? 400 600 800 102 101 100 0 1000 Error (log-scale) Weissman ?VMAX Theorem1 ?C ? 101 200 200 Samples 103 Taxi 103 Weissman ?VMAX Theorem1 ?C ? 102 100 0 Red Herring 103 Weissman ?VMAX Error (log-scale) Error (log-scale) 103 400 600 800 102 101 100 0 1000 200 Samples Inventory Management 600 800 1000 Samples Mountain Car 103 400 Pinball 104 Weissman ?VMAX Weissman ?VMAX Theorem1 ?C ? Theorem1 ?C ? Weissman ?VMAX Theorem1 ?C ? 103 2 101 Error (log-scale) Error (log-scale) Error (log-scale) 10 102 101 102 101 100 100 10?1 0 200 400 600 800 1000 100 0 Samples 200 400 600 Samples 800 1000 10?1 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Samples Figure 1: Comparison of the Weissman et al. (2003) bound times VMAX to (3) of Theorem 1 times ? CM in the benchmark MDPs. In each MDP, we selected the policy ? (from the policies encountered during policy iteration) that gave the largest C ? and the worst next state distribution for our bound. In each MDP, the improvement with the distribution-norm is an order of magnitude (or more) better than using the distribution-free Weissman et al. (2003) bound. 4 Discussion and conclusion In the early days of learning theory, sample independent quantities such as the VC-dimension and later the Rademacher complexity were used to derive generalization bounds for supervised learning. Later on, data dependent bounds (empirical VC or empirical Rademacher) replaced these quantities to obtain better bounds. In a similar spirit, we proposed the ?rst analysis in RL where instead of considering generic a-priori bounds one can use stronger MDP-speci?c bounds. Similarly to the supervised learning, where generalization bounds have been used to drive model selection algorithms and structural risk minimization, our proposed distribution dependent norm suggests a similar approach in solving RL problems. Although we do not claim to close the gap between theoretical and empirical bounds, this paper opens an interesting direction of research towards this goal, and achieves a signi?cant ?rst step. It inspires at least a modi?cation of the whole family of UCRLbased algorithms, and could potentially bene?t also to others fundamental problems in RL such as basis-function adaptation or model selection, but ef?cient implementation should not be overlooked. We choose a natural weighted L2 norm induced by a distribution, due to its simplicity of interpretation and showed several benchmark MDPs have low hardness. A natural question is how much bene?t can be obtained by studying other Lp or Orlicz distribution-norms? Further, one may wish to create other distribution dependent norms that emphasize certain areas of the state space in order to better capture desired (or undesired) phenomena. This is left for future work. In the analysis we basically showed how to adapt existing algorithms to use the new distribution dependent hardness measure. We believe this is only the beginning of what is possible, and that new algorithms will be developed to best utilize distribution dependent norms in MDPs. Acknowledgements This work was supported by the European Community?s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement 306638 (SUPREL) and the Technion. References Bartlett, P. L. and Tewari, A. (2009). Regal: A regularization based algorithm for reinforcement learning in weakly communicating mdps. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Fifth Conference on Uncertainty in Arti?cial Intelligence, pages 35?42. Dietterich, T. G. (1998). The MAXQ method for hierarchical reinforcement learning. 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On Communication Cost of Distributed Statistical Estimation and Dimensionality Ankit Garg Department of Computer Science, Princeton University garg@cs.princeton.edu Tengyu Ma Department of Computer Science, Princeton University tengyu@cs.princeton.edu Huy L. Nguy?e? n Simons Institute, UC Berkeley hlnguyen@cs.princeton.edu Abstract We explore the connection between dimensionality and communication cost in distributed learning problems. Specifically we study the problem of estimating the mean ?~ of an unknown d dimensional gaussian distribution in the distributed setting. In this problem, the samples from the unknown distribution are distributed among m different machines. The goal is to estimate the mean ?~ at the optimal minimax rate while communicating as few bits as possible. We show that in this setting, the communication cost scales linearly in the number of dimensions i.e. one needs to deal with different dimensions individually. Applying this result to previous lower bounds for one dimension in the interactive setting [1] and to our improved bounds for the simultaneous setting, we prove new lower bounds of ?(md/ log(m)) and ?(md) for the bits of communication needed to achieve the minimax squared loss, in the interactive and simultaneous settings respectively. To complement, we also demonstrate an interactive protocol achieving the minimax squared loss with O(md) bits of communication, which improves upon the simple simultaneous protocol by a logarithmic factor. Given the strong lower bounds in the general setting, we initiate the study of the distributed parameter estimation problems with structured parameters. Specifically, when the parameter is promised to be s-sparse, we show a simple thresholding based protocol that achieves the same squared loss while saving a d/s factor of communication. We conjecture that the tradeoff between communication and squared loss demonstrated by this protocol is essentially optimal up to logarithmic factor. 1 Introduction The last decade has witnessed a tremendous growth in the amount of data involved in machine learning tasks. In many cases, data volume has outgrown the capacity of memory of a single machine and it is increasingly common that learning tasks are performed in a distributed fashion on many machines. Communication has emerged as an important resource and sometimes the bottleneck of the whole system. A lot of recent works are devoted to understand how to solve problems distributedly with efficient communication [2, 3, 4, 1, 5]. In this paper, we study the relation between the dimensionality and the communication cost of statistical estimation problems. Most modern statistical problems are characterized by high dimensionality. Thus, it is natural to ask the following meta question: How does the communication cost scale in the dimensionality? 1 We study this question via the problems of estimating parameters of distributions in the distributed setting. For these problems, we answer the question above by providing two complementary results: 1. Lower bound for general case: If the distribution is a product distribution over the coordinates, then one essentially needs to estimate each dimension of the parameter individually and the information cost (a proxy for communication cost) scales linearly in the number of dimensions. 2. Upper bound for sparse case: If the true parameter is promised to have low sparsity, then a very simple thresholding estimator gives better tradeoff between communication cost and mean-square loss. Before getting into the ideas behind these results, we first define the problem more formally. We consider the case when there are m machines, each of which receives n i.i.d samples from an unknown distribution P (from a family P) over the d-dimensional Euclidean space Rd . These machines need to estimate a parameter ? of the distribution via communicating with each other. Each machine can do arbitrary computation on its samples and messages it receives from other machines. We regard communication (the number of bits communicated) as a resource, and therefore we not only want to optimize over the estimation error of the parameters but also the tradeoff between the estimation error and communication cost of the whole procedure. For simplicity, here we are typically interested in achieving the minimax error 1 while communicating as few bits as possible. Our main focus is the high dimensional setting where d is very large. Communication Lower Bound via Direct-Sum Theorem The key idea for the lower bound is, when the unknown distribution P = P1 ? ? ? ? ? Pd is a product distribution over Rd , and each coordinate of the parameter ? only depends on the corresponding component of P , then we can view the d-dimensional problem as d independent copies of one dimensional problem. We show that, one unfortunately cannot do anything beyond this trivial decomposition, that is, treating each dimension independently, and solving d different estimations problems individually. In other words, the communication cost 2 must be at least d times the cost for one dimensional problem. We call this theorem ?direct-sum? theorem. To demonstrate our theorem, we focus on the specific case where P is a d dimensional spherical Gaussian distribution with an unknown mean and covariance 2 Id 3 . The problem is to estimate the mean of P . The work [1] showed a lower bound on the communication cost for this problem when d = 1. Our technique when applied to their theorem immediately yields a lower bound equal to d times the lower bound for the one dimension problem for any choice of d. Note that [5] independently achieve the same bound by refining the proof in [1]. In the simultaneous communication setting, where all machines send one message to one machine and this machine needs to figure out the estimation, the work [1] showed that ?(md/ log m) bits of communication are needed to achieve the minimax squared loss. In this paper, we improve this bound to ?(md), by providing an improved lower bound for one-dimensional setting and then applying our direct-sum theorem. The direct-sum theorem that we prove heavily uses the idea and tools from the recent developments in communication complexity and information complexity. There has been a lot of work on the paradigm of studying communication complexity via the notion of information complexity [6, 7, 8, 9, 10]. Information complexity can be thought of as a proxy for communication complexity that is especially accurate for solving multiple copies of the same problem simultaneously [8]. Proving socalled ?direct-sum? results has become a standard tool, namely the fact that the amount of resources required for solving d copies of a problem (with different inputs) in parallel is equal to d times the amount required for one copy. In other words, there is no saving from solving many copies of the same problem in batch and the trivial solution of solving each of them separately is optimal. Note that this generic statement is certainly NOT true for arbitrary type of tasks and arbitrary type of resources. Actually even for distributed computing tasks, if the measure of resources is the 1 by minimax error we mean the minimum possible error that can be achieved when there is no limit on the communication 2 technically, information cost, as discussed below 3 where Id denote the d ? d identity matrix 2 communication cost instead of information cost, there exist examples where solving d copies of a certain problem requires less communication than d times the communication required for one copy [11]. Therefore, a direct-sum theorem, if true, could indeed capture the features and difficulties of the problems. Our result can be viewed as a direct sum theorem for communication complexity for statistical estimation problems: the amount of communication needed for solving an estimation problem in d dimensions is at least d times the amount of information needed for the same problem in one dimension. The proof technique is directly inspired by the notion of conditional information complexity [7], which was used to prove direct sum theorems and lower bounds for streaming algorithms. We believe this is a fruitful connection and can lead to more lower bounds in statistical machine learning. To complement the above lower bounds, we also show an interactive protocol that uses a log factor less communication than the simple protocol, under which each machine sends the sample mean and the center takes the average as the estimation. Our protocol demonstrates additional power of interactive communication and potential complexity of proving lower bound for interactive protocols. Thresholding Algorithm for Sparse Parameter Estimation In light of the strong lower bounds in the general case, a question suggests itself as a way to get around the impossibility results: Can we do better when the data (parameters) have more structure? We study this questions by considering the sparsity structure on the parameter ?. Specifically, we consider the case when the underlying parameter ? is promised to be s-sparse. We provide a simple protocol that achieves the same squared-loss O(d 2 /(mn)) as in the general case, while using ? O(sm) communications, or achieving optimal squared loss O(s 2 /(mn)), with communication ? O(dm), or any tradeoff between these cases. We even conjecture that this is the best tradeoff up to polylogarithmic factors. 2 Problem Setup, Notations and Preliminaries Classical Statistical Parameter Estimation We start by reviewing the classical framework of statistical parameter estimation problems. Let P be a family of distributions over X . Let ? : P ! ? ? R denote a function defined on P. We are given samples X 1 , . . . , X n from some P 2 P, and are asked ? 1 , . . . , X n ) is the corresponding to estimate ?(P ). Let ?? : X n ! ? be such an estimator, and ?(X estimate. Define the squared loss R of the estimator to be h ? ?) = E k?(X ? 1, . . . , X n) R(?, ? ?,X ?(P )k22 i In the high-dimensional case, let P d := {P~ = P1 ? ? ? ? ? Pd : Pi 2 P} be the family of product distributions over X d . Let ?~ : P d ! ?d ? Rd be the d-dimensional function obtained by applying ? point-wise ?~ (P1 ? ? ? ? ? Pd ) = (?(P1 ), . . . , ?(Pd )). Throughout this paper, we consider the case when X = R and P = {N (?, 2 ) : ? 2 [ 1, 1]} is Gaussian distribution with for some fixed and known . Therefore, in the high-dimensional case, ? P d = {N ( ?~ , 2 Id ) : ?~ 2 [ 1, 1]d } is a collection of spherical Gaussian distributions. We use ?~ to denote the d-dimensional estimator. For clarity, in this paper, we always use~? to indicate a vector in high dimensions. Distributed Protocols and Parameter Estimation: In this paper, we are interested in the situation ~ (j,1) , . . . , X ~ (j,n) 2 Rd from where there are m machines and the jth machine receives n samples X 2 ~ ~ the distribution P = N ( ? , Id ). The machines communicate via a publicly shown blackboard. That is, when a machine writes a message on the blackboard, all other machines can see the content of the message. Following [1], we usually refer to the blackboard as the fusion center or simply center. Note that this model captures both point-to-point communication as well as broadcast com3 munication. Therefore, our lower bounds in this model apply to both the message passing setting and the broadcast setting. We will say that a protocol is simultaneous if each machine broadcasts a single message based on its input independently of the other machine ([1] call such protocols independent). We denote the collection of all the messages written on the blackboard by Y . We will refer to Y as transcript and note that Y 2 {0, 1}? is written in bits and the communication cost is defined as the ? length of Y , denoted by |Y |. In multi-machine setting, the estimator ?~ only sees the transcript Y , and ~? ) 4 , which is the estimation of ?~ . Let letter j be reserved for index of the machine it maps Y to ?(Y ~ (j,k) is the ith-coordinate of and k for the sample and letter i for the dimension. In other words, X i ~ i as a shorthand for the collection of the ith coordinate of kth sample of machine j. We will use X ~ i = {X ~ (j,k) : j 2 [m], k 2 [n]}. Also note that [n] is a shorthand for {1, . . . , n}. all the samples: X i ? The mean-squared loss of the protocol ? with estimator ?~ is defined as ? ? ~? ?~ = sup E [k?(Y ~? ) ?~ k2 ] R (?, ?), ~ X,? ~ ? and the communication cost of ? is defined as CC(?) = sup E [|Y |] ~ ? ~ X,? ? ? ~? ?~ and CC(?). The main goal of this paper is to study the tradeoff between R (?, ?), Proving Minimax Lower Bound: We follow the standard way to prove minimax lower bound. We introduce a (product) distribution V d of ?~ over the [ 1, 1]d . Let?s define the mean-squared loss with respect to distribution V d as " # ? ? 2 ~ ?~ ) = E ~ ) ?~ k ] RV d ((?, ?), E [k?(Y ~ ?V d ? ~ X,? ~? ?~ ) ? R((?, ?), ~? ?~ ) for any distribution V d . Therefore to prove It is easy to see that RV d ((?, ?), lower bound for the minimax rate, it suffices to prove the lower bound for the mean-squared loss under any distribution V d . 5 Private/Public Randomness: We allow the protocol to use both private and public randomness. Private randomness, denoted by Rpriv , refers to the random bits that each machine draws by itself. Public randomness, denoted by Rpub , is a sequence of random bits that is shared among all parties before the protocol without being counted toward the total communication. Certainly allowing these two types of randomness only makes our lower bound stronger, and public randomness is actually only introduced for convenience. Furthermore, we will see in the proof of Theorem 3.1, the benefit of allowing private randomness is that we can hide information using private randomness when doing the reduction from one dimension protocol to d-dimensional one. The downside is that we require a stronger theorem (that tolerates private randomness) for the one dimensional lower bound, which is not a problem in our case since technique in [1] is general enough to handle private randomness. Information cost: We define information cost IC(?) of protocol ? as mutual information between the data and the messages communicated conditioned on the mean ?~ . 6 4 ? Therefore here ?~ maps {0, 1}? to ? ~? ?~ ) = R((?, ?), ~? ?~ ) under certain Standard minimax theorem says that actually the supV d RV d ((?, ?), ~ compactness condition for the space of ? . 6 Note that here we have introduced a distribution for the choice of ?~ , and therefore ?~ is a random variable. 5 4 ~ Y | ?~ , Rpub ) ICV d (?) = I(X; Private randomness doesn?t explicitly appear in the definition of information cost but it affects it. Note that the information cost is a lower bound on the communication cost: ~ Y | ?~ , Rpub ) ? H(Y ) ? CC(?) ICV d (?) = I(X; The first inequality uses the fact that I(U ; V | W ) ? H(V | W ) ? H(V ) hold for any random variable U, V, W , and the second inequality uses Shannon?s source coding theorem [13]. We will drop the subscript for the prior V d of ?~ when it is clear from the context. 3 Main Results 3.1 High Dimensional Lower bound via Direct Sum Our main theorem roughly states that if one can solves the d-dimensional problem, then one must be able to solve the one dimensional problem with information cost and square loss reduced by a factor of d. Therefore, a lower bound for one dimensional problem will imply a lower bound for high dimensional problem, with information cost and square loss scaled up by a factor of d. We first define our task formally, and then state the theorem that relates d-dimensional task with one-dimensional task. ~? solves task T (d, m, n, 2 , V d ) with inforDefinition 1. We say a protocol and estimator pair (?, ?) mation cost C and mean-squared loss R, if for ?~ randomly chosen from V d , m machines, each of which takes n samples from N ( ?~ , 2 Id ) as input, can run the protocol ? and get transcript Y so that the followings are true: ~? ?~ ) = R RV d ((?, ?), (1) ~ Y | ?~ , Rpub ) = C IV d (X; (2) ~? solves the task T (d, m, n, 2 , V d ) with information cost C Theorem 3.1. [Direct-Sum] If (?, ?) ? that solves the task T (1, m, n, 2 , V) with information and squared loss R, then there exists (?0 , ?) cost at most 4C/d and squared loss at most 4R/d. Furthermore, if the protocol ? is simultaneous, then the protocol ?0 is also simultaneous. Remark 1. Note that this theorem doesn?t prove directly that communication cost scales linearly with the dimension, but only information cost. However for many natural problems, communication cost and information cost are similar for one dimension (e.g. for gaussian mean estimation) and then this direct sum theorem can be applied. In this sense it is very generic tool and is widely used in communication complexity and streaming algorithms literature. ~? estimates the mean of N ( ?~ , 2 Id ), for all ?~ 2 [ 1, 1]d , with meanCorollary 3.1. Suppose (?, ?) squared loss R, and communication cost B. Then ? ? ? d2 2 d 2 R ? min , ,d nB log m n log m As a corollary, ? when ?2 ? mn, to achieve the mean-squared loss R = dm B is at least ? log m . d 2 mn , the communication cost This lower bound is tight up to polylogarithmic factors. In most of the cases, roughly B/m machines ? sending their sample mean to the fusion center and ?~ simply outputs the mean of the sample means with O(log m) bits of precision will match the lower bound up to a multiplicative log2 m factor. 7 ? When is very large, when ? is known to be in [ 1, 1], ?~ = 0 is a better estimator, that is essentially why the lower bounds not only have the first term we desired but also the other two. 7 5 3.2 Protocol for sparse estimation problem In this section we consider the class of gaussian distributions with sparse mean: Ps = {N ( ?~ , 2 Id ) : | ?~ |0 ? s, ?~ 2 Rd }. We provide a protocol that exploits the sparse structure of ?~ . Inputs : Machine j gets samples X (j,1) , . . . , X (j,n) distributed according to N ( ?~ , ?~ 2 Rd with | ?~ |0 ? s. 2 Id ), where For each 1 ? j ? m0 = (Lm log d)/?, (where L is a sufficiently large constant), machine j sends ? (j) = 1 X (j,1) , . . . , X (j,n) (with precision O(log m)) to the center. its sample mean X n ? ? ? = 10 X ? (1) + ? ? ? + X ? (m0 ) . Fusion center calculates the mean of the sample means X m ? ? 2 2 ? ? ? Xi if |Xi | mn Let ?~i = 0 otherwise ? Outputs ?~ Protocol 1: Protocol for Ps Theorem 3.2. For any P 2 Ps , for any d/s ? 1, Protocol 1 returns ?~ with mean-squared loss 2 O( ?s mn ) with communication cost O((dm log m log d)?). The proof of the theorem is deferred to supplementary material. Note that when ? = 1, we have ? a protocol with O(dm) communication cost and mean-squared loss O(s 2 /(mn)), and when ? = ? d/s, the communication cost is O(sm) but squared loss O(d 2 /(mn)). Comparing to the case where we don?t have sparse structure, basically we either replace the d factor in the communication cost by the intrinsic dimension s or the d factor in the squared loss by s, but not both. 3.3 Improved upper bound The lower bound provided in Section 3.1 is only tight up to polylogarithmic factor. To achieve the 2 centralized minimax rate mnd , the best existing upper bound of O(dm log(m)) bits of communication is achieved by the simple protocol that ask each machine to send its sample mean with O(log n) bits precision . We improve the upper bound to O(dm) using the interactive protocols. Recall that the class of unknown distributions of our model is P d = {N ( ?~ , 2 Id ) : ? 2 [ 1, 1]d }. Theorem 3.3. Then there is an interactive protocol ? with communication O(md) and an estimator 2 ? ?~ based on ? which estimates ?~ up to a squared loss of O( d ). mn Remark 2. Our protocol is interactive but not simultaneous, and it is a very interesting question whether the upper bound of O(dm) could be achieved by a simultaneous protocol. 3.4 Improved lower bound for simultaneous protocols Although we are not able to prove ?(dm) lower bound for achieve the centralized minimax rate in the interactive model, the lower bound for simultaneous case can be improved to ?(dm). Again, we lowerbound the information cost for the one dimensional problem first, and applying the direct-sum theorem in Section 3.1, we got the d-dimensional lower bound. ~? estimates the mean of N ( ?~ , 2 Id ), for all Theorem 3.4. Suppose simultaneous protocol (?, ?) d ?~ 2 [ 1, 1] , with mean-squared loss R, and communication cost B, Then ? ? 2 2 ? d R ? min ,d nB As a corollary, when is at least ?(dm). 2 ? mn, to achieve mean-squared loss R = 6 d 2 mn , the communication cost B 4 4.1 Proof sketches Proof sketch of theorem 3.1 and corollary 3.1 To prove a lower bound for the d dimensional problem using an existing lower bound for one dimensional problem, we demonstrate a reduction that uses the (hypothetical) protocol ? for d dimensions to construct a protocol for the one dimensional problem. For each fixed coordinate i 2 [d], we design a protocol ?i for the one-dimensional problem by embedding the one-dimensional problem into the ith coordinate of the d-dimensional problem. We will show essentially that if the machines first collectively choose randomly a coordinate i, and run protocol ?i for the one-dimensional problem, then the information cost and mean-squared loss of this protocol will be only 1/d factor of those of the d-dimensional problem. Therefore, the information cost of the d-dimensional problem is at least d times the information cost of one-dimensional problem. Inputs : Machine j gets samples X (j,1) , . . . , X (j,n) distributed according to N (?, 1. All machines publicly sample ?? i distributed according to V d 1 . 2 ), where ? ? V. ? (j,1) , . . . , X ? (j,n) distributed according to N (?? i , 2. Machine j privately samples X i i ? (j,k) = (X ? (j,k) , . . . , X ? (j,k) , X (j,k) , X ? (j,k) , . . . , X ? (j,k) ). Let X 1 i 1 i+1 2 Id 1 ). d ? and get transcript Yi . The estimator ??i is ??i (Yi ) = 3. All machines run protocol ? on data X ~? )i i.e. the ith coordinate of the d-dimensional estimator. ?(Y Protocol 2: ?i In more detail, under protocol ?i (described formally in Protocol 2) the machines prepare a ddimensional dataset as follows: First they fill the one-dimensional data that they got into the ith coordinate of the d-dimensional data. Then the machines choose publicly randomly ?~ i from distribution V d 1 , and draw independently and privately gaussian random variables from N ( ?~ i , Id 1 ), and fill the data into the other d 1 coordinates. Then machines then simply run the d-dimension protocol ? on this tailored dataset. Finally the estimator, denoted by ??i , outputs the ith coordinate ~? of the d-dimensional estimator ?. We are interested in the mean-squared loss and information cost of the protocol ?i ?s that we just designed. The following lemmas relate ?i ?s with the original protocol ?. ? ? ? ? Pd ~? ?~ Lemma 1. Protocols ?i ?s satisfy i=1 RV (?i , ??i ), ? = RV d (?, ?), Lemma 2. Protocols ?i ?s satisfy Pd i=1 ICV (?i ) ? ICV d (?) Note that the counterpart of Lemma 2 with communication cost won?t be true, and actually the communication cost of each ?i is the same as that of ?. It turns out doing reduction in communication cost is much harder, and this is part of the reason why we use information cost as a proxy for communication cost when proving lower bound. Also note that the correctness of Lemma 2 heavily relies on the fact that ?i draws the redundant data privately independently (see Section 2 and the proof for more discussion on private versus public randomness). By Lemma 1 and Lemma 2 and a Markov argument, there exists an i 2 {1, . . . , d} such that ? ? 4 ? ? 4 and IC(?i ) ? ? IC(?) R (?i , ??i ), ? ? ? R (?, ?~ ), ?~ d d ? = (?i , ??i ) solves the task T (1, m, n, Then the pair (?0 , ?) 4C/d and squared loss 4R/d, which proves Theorem 3.1. 2 , V) with information cost at most Corollary 3.1 follows Theorem 3.1 and the following lower bound for one dimensional gaussian mean estimation proved in [1]. We provide complete proofs in the supplementary. 7 ? ? 2 Theorem 4.1. [1] Let V be the uniform distribution over {? }, where 2 ? min 1, log(m) . n 2 ? If (?, ?)? solves the ?task T (1, m, n, , V) with information cost C and squared loss R, then either 2 2 C ? 2 n log(m) or R /10. 4.2 Proof sketch of theorem 3.3 The protocol is described in protocol 3 in the supplementary. We only describe the d = 1 case, while for general case we only need to run d protocols individually for each dimension. The central idea is that we maintain an upper bound U and lower bound L for the target mean, and iteratively ask the machines to send their sample means to shrink the interval [L, U ]. Initially we only know that ? 2 [ 1, 1]. Therefore we set the upper bound U and lower bound L for ? to be 1 and 1. In the first iteration the machines try to determine whether ? < 0 or 0. This is done by letting several machines (precisely, O(log m)/ 2 machines) send whether their sample means are < 0 or 0. If the majority of the samples are < 0, ? is likely to be < 0. However when ? is very close to 0, one needs a lot of samples to determine this, but here we only ask O(log m)/ 2 machines to send their sample means. Therefore we should be more conservative and we only update the interval in which ? might lie to [ 1, 1/2] if the majority of samples are < 0. We repeat this until the interval (L, U ) become smaller than our target squared loss. Each round, we ask a number of new machines sending 1 bits of information about whether their sample mean is large than (U + L)/2. The number of machines participated is carefully set so that the failure probability p is small. An interesting feature of the protocol is to choose the target error probability p differently at each iteration so that we have a better balance between the failure probability and communication cost. The complete the description of the protocol and proof are given in the supplementary. 4.3 Proof sketch of theorem 3.4 We use a different prior on the mean N (0, 2 ) instead of uniform over { , } used by [1]. Gaussian prior allows us to use a strong data processing inequality for jointly gaussian random variables by [14]. Since we don?t have to truncate the gaussian, we don?t lose the factor of log(m) lost by [1]. Theorem 4.2. ([14], Theorem 7) Suppose X and V are jointly gaussian random variables with correlation ?. Let Y $ X $ V be a markov chain with I(Y ; X) ? R. Then I(Y ; V ) ? ?2 R. Now suppose that each machine gets n samples X 1 , . . . , X n ? N (V, 2 ), where V is the prior N (0, 2 ) on the mean. By an application of theorem 4.2, we prove that if Y is a B-bit message 2 depending on X 1 , . . . , X n , then Y has only n 2 ? B bits of information about V . Using some standard information theory arguments, this converts into the statement that if Y is the transcript of 2 a simultaneous protocol with communication cost ? B, then it has at most n 2 ?B bits of information about V . Then a lower bound on the communication cost B of a simultaneous protocol estimating the mean ? 2 [ 1, 1] follows from proving that such a protocol must have ?(1) bit of information about V . Complete proof is given in the supplementary. 5 Conclusion We have lowerbounded the communication cost of estimating the mean of a d-dimensional spherical gaussian random variables in a distributed fashion. We provided a generic tool called direct-sum for relating the information cost of d-dimensional problem to one-dimensional problem, which might be of potential use for other statistical problem than gaussian mean estimation as well. We also initiated the study of distributed estimation of gaussian mean with sparse structure. We provide a simple protocol that exploits the sparse structure and conjecture its tradeoff to be optimal: Conjecture 1. If some protocol estimates the mean for any distribution P 2 Ps with mean-squared 2 loss R and communication cost C, then C ? R & sd mn , where we use & to hide log factors and potential corner cases. 8 References [1] Yuchen Zhang, John C. Duchi, Michael I. Jordan, and Martin J. Wainwright. Informationtheoretic lower bounds for distributed statistical estimation with communication constraints. In NIPS, pages 2328?2336, 2013. [2] Maria-Florina Balcan, Avrim Blum, Shai Fine, and Yishay Mansour. Distributed learning, communication complexity and privacy. In COLT, pages 26.1?26.22, 2012. [3] Hal Daum?e III, Jeff M. Phillips, Avishek Saha, and Suresh Venkatasubramanian. Protocols for learning classifiers on distributed data. In AISTATS, pages 282?290, 2012. [4] Hal Daum?e III, Jeff M. Phillips, Avishek Saha, and Suresh Venkatasubramanian. Efficient protocols for distributed classification and optimization. In ALT, pages 154?168, 2012. [5] John C. Duchi, Michael I. Jordan, Martin J. Wainwright, and Yuchen Zhang. Informationtheoretic lower bounds for distributed statistical estimation with communication constraints. CoRR, abs/1405.0782, 2014. [6] Amit Chakrabarti, Yaoyun Shi, Anthony Wirth, and Andrew Chi-Chih Yao. Informational complexity and the direct sum problem for simultaneous message complexity. In FOCS, pages 270?278, 2001. [7] Ziv Bar-Yossef, T. S. Jayram, Ravi Kumar, and D. Sivakumar. An information statistics approach to data stream and communication complexity. J. Comput. Syst. Sci., 68(4), 2004. [8] Mark Braverman and Anup Rao. Information equals amortized communication. In FOCS, pages 748?757, 2011. [9] Boaz Barak, Mark Braverman, Xi Chen, and Anup Rao. How to compress interactive communication. SIAM J. Comput., 42(3):1327?1363, 2013. [10] Mark Braverman, Faith Ellen, Rotem Oshman, Toniann Pitassi, and Vinod Vaikuntanathan. A tight bound for set disjointness in the message-passing model. In FOCS, pages 668?677, 2013. [11] Anat Ganor, Gillat Kol, and Ran Raz. Exponential separation of information and communication. Electronic Colloquium on Computational Complexity (ECCC), 21:49, 2014. [12] Yuchen Zhang, John C. Duchi, and Martin J. Wainwright. Communication-efficient algorithms for statistical optimization. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 14(1):3321?3363, 2013. [13] Claude Shannon. A mathematical theory of communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 27:379?423, 623?656, 1948. [14] Elza Erkip and Thomas M. Cover. The efficiency of investment information. IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, 44, 1998. 9
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Difference of Convex Functions Programming for Reinforcement Learning Bilal Piot1,2 , Matthieu Geist1 , Olivier Pietquin2,3 MaLIS research group (SUPELEC) - UMI 2958 (GeorgiaTech-CNRS), France 2 LIFL (UMR 8022 CNRS/Lille 1) - SequeL team, Lille, France 3 University Lille 1 - IUF (Institut Universitaire de France), France bilal.piot@lifl.fr, matthieu.geist@supelec.fr, olivier.pietquin@univ-lille1.fr 1 Abstract Large Markov Decision Processes are usually solved using Approximate Dynamic Programming methods such as Approximate Value Iteration or Approximate Policy Iteration. The main contribution of this paper is to show that, alternatively, the optimal state-action value function can be estimated using Difference of Convex functions (DC) Programming. To do so, we study the minimization of a norm of the Optimal Bellman Residual (OBR) T ? Q ? Q, where T ? is the so-called optimal Bellman operator. Controlling this residual allows controlling the distance to the optimal action-value function, and we show that minimizing an empirical norm of the OBR is consistant in the Vapnik sense. Finally, we frame this optimization problem as a DC program. That allows envisioning using the large related literature on DC Programming to address the Reinforcement Leaning problem. 1 Introduction This paper addresses the problem of solving large state-space Markov Decision Processes (MDPs)[16] in an infinite time horizon and discounted reward setting. The classical methods to tackle this problem, such as Approximate Value Iteration (AVI) or Approximate Policy Iteration (API) [6, 16]1 , are derived from Dynamic Programming (DP). Here, we propose an alternative path. The idea is to search directly a function Q for which T ? Q ? Q, where T ? is the optimal Bellman operator, by minimizing a norm of the Optimal Bellman Residual (OBR) T ? Q ? Q. First, in Sec. 2.2, we show that the OBR Minimization (OBRM) is interesting, as it can serve as a proxy for the optimal action-value function estimation. Then, in Sec. 3, we prove that minimizing an empirical norm of the OBR is consistant in the Vapnick sense (this justifies working with sampled transitions). However, this empirical norm of the OBR is not convex. We hypothesize that this is why this approach is not studied in the literature (as far as we know), a notable exception being the work of Baird [5]. Therefore, our main contribution, presented in Sec. 4, is to show that this minimization can be framed as a minimization of a Difference of Convex functions (DC) [11]. Thus, a large literature on Difference of Convex functions Algorithms (DCA) [19, 20](a rather standard approach to non-convex programming) is available to solve our problem. Finally in Sec. 5, we conduct a generic experiment that compares a naive implementation of our approach to API and AVI methods, showing that it is competitive. 1 Others methods such as Approximate Linear Programming (ALP) [7, 8] or Dynamic Policy Programming (DPP) [4] address the same problem. Yet, they also rely on DP. 1 2 2.1 Background MDP and ADP Before describing the framework of MDPs in the infinite-time horizon and discounted reward setting, we give some general notations. Let (R, |.|) be the real space with its canonical norm and X a finite set, RX is the set of functions from X to R. The set of probability distributions over X is noted ?X . Let Y be a finite set, ?YX is the set of functions from Y to ?X . Let ? ? RX , p ? 1 and ? ? ?X , we define the Lp,? -semi-norm of ?, noted k?kp,? , by: P 1 k?kp,? = ( x?X ?(x)|?(x)|p ) p . In addition, the infinite norm is noted k?k? and defined as k?k? = maxx?X |?(x)|. Let v be a random variable which takes its values in X, v ? ? means that the probability that v = x is ?(x). Now, we provide a brief summary of some of the concepts from the theory of MDP and ADP [16]. Here, the agent is supposed to act in a finite MDP 2 represented by a tuple M = {S, A, R, P, ?} where S = {si }1?i?NS is the state space, A = {ai }1?i?NA is the action space, R ? RS?A is the reward function, ? ?]0, 1[ is a discount factor and P ? ?S?A S is the Markovian dynamics which gives the probability, P (s0 |s, a), to reach s0 by choosing S action a in state s. A policy ? is an element of A and defines the behavior of an agent. The quality of a policy ? is defined by the action-value function. For a given policy ?, the P+? action-value function Q? ? RS?A is defined as Q? (s, a) = E? [ t=0 ? t R(st , at )], where E? is the expectation over the distribution of the admissible trajectories (s0 , a0 , s1 , ?(s1 ), . . . ) obtained by executing the policy ? starting from s0 = s and a0 = a. Moreover, the function Q? ? RS?A defined as Q? = max??AS Q? is called the optimal action-value function. A policy ? is optimal if ?s ? S, Q? (s, ?(s)) = Q? (s, ?(s)). A policy ? is said greedy with respect to a function Q if ?s ? S, ?(s) ? argmaxa?A Q(s, a). Greedy policies are important because a policy ? greedy with respect to Q? is optimal. In addition, as we work in the finite MDP setting, we define, for each policy ?, the matrix P? of size NS NA ? NS NA with elements P? ((s, a), (s0 , a0 )) = P (s0 |s, a)1P {?(s0 )=a0 } . Let ? ? ?S?A , we note ?P? ? ?S?A the distribution such that (?P? )(s, a) = (s0 ,a0 )?S?A ?(s0 , a0 )P? ((s0 , a0 ), (s, a)). Finally, Q? and Q? are known to be fixed points of the contracting operators T ? and T ? respectively: X ?Q ? RS?A , ?(s, a) ? S ? A, T ? Q(s, a) = R(s, a) + ? P (s0 |s, a)Q(s, ?(s0 )), s0 ?S ?Q ? R S?A , ?(s, a) ? S ? A, ? T Q(s, a) = R(s, a) + ? X s0 ?S P (s0 |s, a) max Q(s, b). b?A When the state space becomes large, two important problems arise to solve large MDPs. The first one, called the representation problem, is that an exact representation of the values of the action-value functions is impossible, so these functions need to be represented with a moderate number of coefficients. The second problem, called the sample problem, is that there is no direct access to the Bellman operators but only samples from them. One solution for the representation problem is to linearly parameterize the action-value functions thanks to a basis of d ? N? functions ? = (?i )di=1 where ?i ? RS?A . In addition, we define for each state-action couple (s, a) the vector ?(s, a) ? Rd such that ?(s, a) = (?i (s, a))di=1 . Thus, the action-value functions are characterized by a vector ? ? Rd and noted Q? : ?? ? Rd , ?(s, a) ? S ? A, Q? (s, a) = d X ?i ?i (s, a) = h?, ?(s, a)i, i=1 where h., .i is the canonical dot product of Rd . The usual framework to solve large MDPs are for instance AVI and API. AVI consists in d AVI ? AVI processing a sequence (QAVI ?n )n?N where ?0 ? R and ?n ? N, Q?n+1 ? T Q?n . API consists API API API in processing two sequences (Q?n )n?N and (?n )n?N where ?0 ? AS , ?n ? N, QAPI ?n ? 2 This work could be easily extended to measurable state spaces as in [9]; we choose the finite case for the ease and clarity of exposition. 2 API API T ?n QAPI ?n and ?n+1 is greedy with respect to Q?n . The approximation steps in AVI and AVI ? AVI API API generate the sequences of errors (n = T Q?n ? QAVI = T ?n QAPI ?n+1 )n?N and (n ?n ? API Q?n )n?N respectively. Those approximation errors are due to both the representation and the sample problems and can be made explicit for specific implementations of those methods [14, 1]. These ALP methods are legitimated by the following bound [15, 9]: API\AVI lim sup kQ? ? Q?n kp,? ? n?? API\AVI 1 2? C2 (?, ?) p API\AVI , 2 (1 ? ?) API\AVI (1) API\AVI where ?n is greedy with respect to Q?n , API\AVI = supn?N kn kp,? and P C2 (?, ?) is a second order concentrability coefficient, C2 (?, ?) = (1 ? ?) m?1 m? m?1 c(m), (?P P ...P )(s,a) ?1 ?2 ?m . In the next section, we compare where c(m) = max?1 ,...,?m ,(s,a)?S?A ?(s,a) the bound Eq. (1) with a similar bound derived from the OBR minimization approach in order to justify it. 2.2 Why minimizing the OBR? The aim of Dynamic Programming (DP) is, given an MDP M , to find Q? which is equivalent to minimizing a certain norm of the OBR Jp,? (Q) = kT ? Q ? Qkp,? where ? ? ?S?A is such that ?(s, a) ? S ? A, ?(s, a) > 0 and p ? 1. Indeed, it is trivial to verify that the only minimizer of Jp,? is Q? . Moreover, we have the following bound given by Th. 1. Theorem 1. Let ? ? ?S?A , ? ? P ?S?A , ? ? ? AS and C1 (?, ?, ? ? ) ? [1, +?[?{+?} the t t smallest constant verifying (1 ? ?)? t?0 ? P?? ? C1 (?, ?, ? ? )?, then: ?Q ? R S?A ? ? , kQ ? Q kp,? 2 ? 1??  C1 (?, ?, ?) + C1 (?, ?, ? ? ) 2  p1 kT ? Q ? Qkp,? , (2) where ? is greedy with respect to Q and ? ? is any optimal policy. Proof. A proof is given in the supplementary file. Similar results exist [15]. In Reinforcement Leaning (RL), because of the representation and the sample problems, minimizing kT ? Q ? Qkp,? over RS?A is not possible (see Sec. 3 for details), but we can consider that our approach provides us a function Q such that T ? Q ? Q and define the error OBRM = kT ? Q ? Qkp,? . Thus, via Eq. (2), we have: ? ? kQ ? Q kp,? 2 ? 1??  C1 (?, ?, ?) + C1 (?, ?, ? ? ) 2  p1 OBRM , (3) where ? is greedy with respect to Q. This bound has the same form as the one of API and AVI described in Eq. (1) and the Tab. 1 allows comparing them. This bound has two Algorithms Horizon term Concentrability term Error term API\AVI 2? (1??)2 2 1?? C2 (?, ?) C1 (?,?,?)+C1 (?,?,? ? ) 2 API\AVI OBRM OBRM Table 1: Bounds comparison. 2 advantages over API\AVI. First, the horizon term 1?? is better than the horizon term 2? (1??)2 as long as ? > 0.5, which is the usual case. Second, the concentrability term C1 (?,?,?)+C1 (?,?,? ? ) is considered better that C2 (?, ?), 2 ? 1 (?,?,? ) then C1 (?,?,?)+C < +?, the contrary being not 2 mainly because if C2 (?, ?) < +? true (see [17] for a discussion about the comparison of these concentrability coefficients). Thus, the bound Eq. (3) justifies the minimization of a norm of the OBR, as long as we are able to control the error term OBRM . 3 3 Vapnik-Consistency of the empirical norm of the OBR When the state space is too large, it is not possible to minimize directly kT ? Q ? Qkp,? , as we need to compute T ? Q(s, a) for each couple (s, a) (sample problem). However, we can consider the case where we choose N samples represented by N independent and identically distributed random variables (Si , Ai )1?i?N such that (Si , Ai ) ? ? and minimize PN kT ? Q ? Qkp,?N where ?N is the empirical distribution ?N (s, a) = N1 i=1 1{(Si ,Ai )=(s,a)} . An important question (answered below) is to know if controlling the empirical norm allows controlling the true norm of interest (consistency in the Vapnik sense [22]), and at what rate convergence occurs. PN 1 Computing kT ? Q ? Qkp,?N = ( N1 i=1 |T ? Q(Si , Ai ) ? Q(Si , Ai )|p ) p is tractable if we consider that we can compute T ? Q(Si , Ai ) which means that we have a perfect knowledge of the dynamics P and that the number of next states for the state-action couple (Si , Ai ) is not too large. In Sec. 4.3, we propose different solutions to evaluate T ? Q(Si , Ai ) when the number of next states is too large or when the dynamics is not provided. Now, the natural question is to what extent minimizing kT ? Q ? Qkp,?N corresponds to minimizing kT ? Q ? Qkp,? . In addition, we cannot minimize kT ? Q ? Qkp,?N over RS?A as this space is too large (representation problem) but over the space {Q? ? RS?A , ? ? Rd }. Moreover, as we are looking for a function such that Q? = Q? , we can limit our search to the func? tions satisfying kQ? k? ? kRk 1?? . Thus, we search for a function Q in the hypothesis space ? ? Q = {Q? ? RS?A , ? ? Rd , kQ? k? ? kRk 1?? }, in order to minimize kT Q ? Qkp,?N . Let ? QN ? argminQ?Q kT Q ? Qkp,?N be a minimizer of the empirical norm of the OBR, we want to know to what extent the empirical error kT ? QN ? QN kp,?N is related to the real error OBRM = kT ? QN ? QN kp,? . The answer for deterministic-finite MPDs relies in Th. 2 (the continuous-stochastic MDP case being discussed shortly after). Theorem 2. Let ? ?]0, 1[ and M be a finite deterministic MDP, with probability at least 1 ? ?, we have: ?Q ? Q, kT ? Q ? Qkpp,? ? kT ? Q ? Qkpp,?N + where ?(N ) = 2kRk? p ?(N ), 1?? 4 h(ln( 2N h )+1)+ln( ? ) N OBRM and h = 2NA (d + 1). With probability at least 1 ? 2?: ! r 2kRk? p ln(1/?) ? p B = kT QN ? QN kp,? ?  + ?(N ) + , 1?? 2N where B = minQ?Q kT ? Q ? Qkpp,? is the error due to the choice of features. Proof. The complete proof is provided in the supplementary file. It mainly consists in computing the Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension of the residual. Thus, if we were able to compute a function such as QN , we would have, thanks to Eq .(2) and Th. 2: !! p1 r   p1 ? p C (?, ?, ? ) + C (?, ?, ? ) 2kRk ln(1/?) 1 N 1 ? kQ? ?Q?N kp,? ? B + ?(N ) + . 1?? 1?? 2N where ?N is greedy with respect to QN . The OBRM is explicitly controlled by  error term q p ? two terms B , a term of bias, and 2kRk ?(N ) + ln(1/?) a term of variance. The 1?? 2N term B = minQ?Q kT ? Q ? Qkpp,? is relative to the representation problem and is fixed by q the choice of features. The term of variance is decreasing at the speed N1 . A similar bound can be obtained for non-deterministic continuous-state MDPs with finite number of actions where the state space is a compact set in a metric space, the features 4 (?i )di=1 are Lipschitz and for each state-action couple the next states belongs to a ball of fixed radius. The proof is a simple extension of the one given in the supplementary material. Those continuous MDPs are representative of real dynamical systems. Now that we know that minimizing kT ? Q ? Qkpp,?N allows controlling kQ? ? Q?N kp,? , the question is how do we frame this optimization problem. Indeed kT ? Q ? Qkpp,?N is a non-convex and a nondifferentiable function with respect to Q, thus a direct minimization could lead us to bad solutions. In the next section, we propose a method to alleviate those difficulties. 4 Reduction to a DC problem Here, we frame the minimization of the empirical norm of the OBR as a DC problem and instantiate a general algorithm, DCA [20], that tries to solve it. First, we provide a short introduction to difference of convex functions. 4.1 DC background Let E be a finite dimensional Hilbert space and h., .iE , k.kE its dot product and norm respectively. We say that a function f ? RE is DC if there exists g, h ? RE which are convex and lower semi-continuous such that f = g ? h. The set of DC functions is noted DC(E) and is stable to most of the operations that can be encountered in optimization, ? contrary to the set of convex functions. Indeed, let (fi )K i=1 be a sequence of K ? N DC PK QK K K functions and (?i )i=1 ? R then i=1 ?i fi , i=1 fi , min1?i?K fi , max1?i?K fi and |fi | are DC functions [11]. In order to minimize a DC function f = g ? h, we need to define a notion of differentiability for convex and lower semi-continuous functions. Let g be such a function and e ? E, we define the sub-gradient ?e g of g in e as: ?e g = {? ? E, ?e0 ? E, g(e0 ) ? g(e) + he0 ? e, ?iE }. For a convex and lower semi-continuous g ? RE , the sub-gradient ?e g is non empty for all e ? E [11]. This observation leads to a minimization method of a function f ? DC(E) called Difference of Convex functions Algorithm (DCA). Indeed, as f is DC, we have: ?(e, e0 ) ? E 2 , f (e0 ) = g(e0 ) ? h(e0 ) ? g(e0 ) ? h(e) ? he0 ? e, ?iE , (a) where ? ? ?e h and inequality (a) is true by definition of the sub-gradient. Thus, for all e ? E, the function f is upper bounded by a function fe ? RE defined for all e0 ? E by fe (e0 ) = g(e0 ) ? h(e) ? he0 ? e, ?iE . The function fe is a convex and lower semi-continuous function (as it is the sum of two convex and lower semi-continuous functions which are g and the linear function ?e0 ? E, he ? e0 , ?iE ? h(e)). In addition, those functions have the particular property that ?e ? E, f (e) = fe (e). The set of convex functions (fe )e?E that upper-bound the function f plays a key role in DCA. The algorithm DCA [20] consists in constructing a sequence (en )n?N such that the sequence (f (en ))n?N decreases. The first step is to choose a starting point e0 ? E, then we minimize the convex function fe0 that upper-bounds the function f . We note e1 a minimizer of fe0 , e1 ? argmine?E fe0 . This minimization can be realized by any convex optimization solver. As f (e0 ) = fe0 (e0 ) ? fe0 (e1 ) and fe0 (e1 ) ? f (e1 ), then f (e0 ) ? f (e1 ). Thus, if we construct the sequence (en )n?N such that ?n ? N, en+1 ? argmine?E fen and e0 ? E, then we obtain a decreasing sequence (f (en ))n?N . Therefore, the algorithm DCA solves a sequence of convex optimization problems in order to solve a DC optimization problem. Three important choices can radically change the DCA performance: the first one is the explicit choice of the decomposition of f , the second one is the choice of the starting point e0 and finally the choice of the intermediate convex solver. The DCA algorithm hardly guarantee convergence to the global optima, but it usually provides good solutions. Moreover, it has some nice properties when one of the functions g or h is polyhedral. A function g is said polyhedral K K when ?e ? E, g(e) = max1?i?K [h?i , eiH + ?i ], where (?i )K and (?i )K i=1 ? E i=1 ? R . If one of the function g, h is polyhedral, f is under bounded and the DCA sequence (en )n?N is bounded, the DCA algorithm converges in finite time to a local minima. The finite time aspect is quite interesting in term of implementation. More details about DC programming and DCA are given in [20] and even conditions for convergence to the global optima. 5 4.2 The OBR minimization framed as a DC problem A first important result is that for any choice of p ? 1, the OBRM is actually a DC problem. p p (?) is (?) = kT ? Q? ? Q? kp,?N be a function from Rd to reals, Jp,? Theorem 3. Let Jp,? N N ? a DC functions when p ? N . p as: Proof. Let us write Jp,? N p (?) = Jp,? N N X 1 X |h?(Si , Ai ), ?i ? R(Si , Ai ) ? ? P (s0 |Si , Ai ) maxh?(s0 , a), ?i|p . a?A N i=1 0 s ?S First, as for each (Si , Ai ) the linear function h?(Si , Ai ), .i is convex and continuous, the affine function gi = h?(Si , Ai ), .i + R(Si , Ai ) is convex and continuous. Therefore, the function maxa?A h?(s0 , a), .i is also convex and continuous as Pa finite maximum of convex and continuous functions. In addition, the function hi = ? s0 ?S P (s0 |Si , Ai ) maxa?A h?(s0 , a), .i| is convex and continuous as a positively weighted finite sum of convex and continuous functions. Thus, the function fi = gi ? hi is a DC function. As an absolute value of a DC function is DC, a finite product of DC functions is DC and a weighted sum of DC functions PN p = N1 i=1 |fi |p is a DC function. is DC, then Jp,? N p However, knowing that Jp,? is DC is not sufficient in order to use the DCA algorithm. N p Indeed, we need an explicit decomposition of Jp,? as a difference of two convex functions. N p We present two polyhedral explicit decompositions of Jp,? when p = 1 and when p = 2. N p Theorem 4. There exists explicit polyhedral decompositions of Jp,? when p = 1 and p = 2. N PN For p = 1: J1,?N = G1,?N ? H1,?N , where G1,?N = N1 i=1 2 max(gi , hi ) P N 1 and i ), with gi = h?(Si , Ai ), .i + R(Si , Ai ) and hi = P H1,?N 0 = N i=1 (gi + h ? s0 ?S P (s |Si , Ai ) maxa?A h?(s0 , a), .i. PN 2 2 For p = 2: J2,? = G2,?N ? H2,?N , where G2,?N = N1 i=1 [g 2i + hi ] and H2,?N = N PN 1 2 i=1 [g i + hi ] with: N ! X 0 0 g i = max(gi , hi ) + gi ? h?(Si , Ai ) + ? P (s |Si , Ai )?(s , a1 ), .i ? R(Si , Ai ) , s0 ?S ! hi = max(gi , hi ) + hi ? h?(Si , Ai ) + ? X 0 0 P (s |Si , Ai )?(s , a1 ), .i ? R(Si , Ai ) . s0 ?S Proof. The proof is provided in the supplementary material. p Unfortunately, there is currently no guarantee that DCA applied to Jp,? = Gp,?N ? Hp,?N N ? ? N of DCA and outputs QN ? argminQ?Q kT Q ? Qkp,?N . The error between the output Q QN is not studied here but it is a nice theoretical perspective for future works. 4.3 The batch scenario Previously, we admit that it was possible to calculate T ? Q(s, a) = R(s, a) + P 0 ? s0 ?S P (s |s, a) maxb?A Q(s0 , b). However, if the number of next states s0 for a given couple (s, a) is too large or if T ? is unknown, this can be intractable. A solution, when we have a simulator, is to generate for each couple (Si , Ai ) a set of N 0 samples 0 N0 (Si,j )j=1 and provide a non-biased estimation of T ? Q(Si , Ai ): T?? Q(Si , Ai ) = R(Si , Ai ) + PN 0 ? 10 maxa?A Q(S 0 , a). Even if |T?? Q(Si , ai ) ? Q(Si , Ai )|p is a biased estimator of N j=1 i,j |T ? Q(Si , Ai ) ? Q(Si , Ai )|p , this biais can be controlled by the number of samples N 0 . In the case where we do not have such a simulator, but only sampled transitions (Si , Ai , Si0 )N i=1 (the batch scenario), it is possible to provide a non-biased estimation of 6 T ? Q(Si , Ai ) via: T?? Q(Si , Ai ) = R(Si , Ai ) + ? maxb?A Q(Si0 , b). However in that case, |T?? Q(Si , Ai ) ? Q(Si , Ai )|p is a biased estimator of |T ? Q(Si , Ai ) ? Q(Si , Ai )|p and the biais is uncontrolled [2]. In order to alleviate this typical problem from the batch scenario, several techniques have been proposed in the literature to provide a better estimator |T?? Q(Si , Ai ) ? Q(Si , Ai )|p , such as embeddings in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS)[13] or locally weighted averager such as Nadaraya-Watson estimators[21]. In both cases, the non-biased estimation of T ? Q(Si , Ai ) takes the form T?? Q(Si , Ai ) = PN R(Si , Ai ) + ? N1 j=1 ?i (Sj0 ) maxa?A Q(Sj0 , a), where ?i (Sj0 ) represents the weight of the samples Sj0 in the estimation of T ? Q(Si , Ai ). To obtain an explicit DC decomposition, PN p (?) = N1 i=1 |T?? Q? (Si , Ai ) ? Q? (Si , Ai )|p it is suffiwhen p = 1 or p = 2, of J?p,? N P PN 1 0 0 0 0 cient to replace s0 ?S P (s |Si , Ai ) maxa?A h?(s , a), ?i by N j=1 ?i (Sj ) maxa?A Q(Sj , a) 0 P N 0 p . , a) if we have a simulator) in the DC decomposition of Jp,? (or N10 j=1 maxa?A Q(Si,j N 5 Illustration This experiment focuses on stationary Garnet problems, which are a class of randomly constructed finite MDPs representative of the kind of finite MDPs that might be encountered in practice [3]. A stationary Garnet problem is characterized by 3 parameters: Garnet(NS , NA , NB ). The parameters NS and NA are the number of states and actions respectively, and NB is a branching factor specifying the number of next states for each state-action pair. Here, we choose a particular type of Garnets which presents a topological structure relative to real dynamical systems and aims at simulating the behavior of a smooth continuous-state MDPs (as described in Sec. 3). Those systems are generally multi-dimensional state spaces MDPs where an action leads to different next states close to each other. The fact that an action leads to close next states can model the noise in a real system for instance. Thus, problems such as the highway simulator [12], the mountain car or the inverted pendulum (possibly discretized) are particular cases of this type of Garnets. For those particular Garnets, the state space is composed of d dimensions (d = 2 in this particular experiment) and each dimension i has a finite number of elements xi (xi = 10). So, a state s = [s1 , s2 , .., si , .., sd ] is a d-uple where each composent si can take a finite value between 1 and xi . In addition, the distance between two states s, s0 is Pi=d Qd ks ? s0 k2 = i=1 (si ? s0i )2 . Thus, we obtain MDPs with a state space size of i=1 xi . The number of actions is NA = 5. For each state action couple (s, a), we choose randomly NB next states (NB = 5) via a Gaussian distribution of d dimensions centered in s where the covariance matrix is the identity matrix of size d, Id , multiply by a term ? (here ? = 1). This allows handling the smoothness of the MDP: if ? is small the next states s0 are close to s and if ? is large, the next states s0 can be very far form each other and also from s. The probability of going to each next state s0 is generated by partitioning the unit interval at NB ? 1 cut points selected randomly. For each couple (s, a), the reward R(s, a) is drawn uniformly between ?1 and 1. For each Garnet problem, it is possible to compute an optimal policy ? ? thanks to the policy iteration algorithm. In this experiment, we construct 50 Garnets {Gp }1?p?50 as explained before. For each Garnet Gp , we build 10 data sets {Dp,q }1?q?10 composed of N sampled transitions (si , ai , s0i )N i=1 drawn uniformly and independently. Thus, we are in the batch scenario. The minimization of J1,N and J2,N via the DCA algorithms, where the estimation of T ? Q(si , ai ) is done via R(si , ai ) + ? maxb?A Q(s0i , b) (so uncontrolled biais), are called DCA1 and DCA2 respectively. The initialisation of DCA is ?0 = 0 and the intermediary optimization convex problems are solved by a sub-gradient descent [18]. Those two algorithms are compared with state-of the art Reinforcement Learning algorithms which are LSPI (API implementation) and Fitted-Q (AVI implementation). The four algorithms uses the tabular baS?A sis. Each algorithm outputs a function Qp,q and the policy associated to Qp,q A ? R A is p,q p,q ?A (s) = argmaxa?A QA (s, a). In order to quantify the performance of a given algorithm, we calculate the criterion TAp,q = ? ? p,q E? [V ? ?V A ] , E? [|V ?? |] p,q where V ?A is computed via the policy P50 P10 p,q 1 evaluation algorithm. The mean performance criterion TA is 500 p=1 q=1 TA . We also 7 P10 P10 p,q p,q 2 1 1 calculate, for each algorithm, the variance criterion stdpA = 10 q=1 (TA ? 10 q=1 TA ) P 50 p 1 and the resulting mean variance criterion is stdA = 50 p=1 stdA . In Fig. 1(a), we plot the performance versus the number of samples. We observe that the 4 algorithms have similar performances, which shows that our alternative approach is competitive. In Fig. 1(b), we 1.1 0.14 0.12 0.9 LSPI DCA1 0.8 DCA2 0.7 rand Fitted?Q Standard deviation Performance 1 LSPI DCA1 0.08 DCA2 Fitted?Q 0.06 0.6 0.04 0.5 0.4 0 0.1 0.02 200 400 600 800 Number of samples 0 0 1000 (a) Performance 200 400 600 800 Number of samples 1000 (b) Standard deviation Figure 1: Garnet Experiment plot the standard deviation versus the number of samples. Here, we observe that DCA algorithms have less variance which is an advantage. This experiment shows us that DC programming is relevant for RL but still has to prove its efficiency on real problems. 6 Conclusion and Perspectives In this paper, we presented an alternative approach to tackle the problem of solving large MDPs by estimating the optimal action-value function via DC Programming. To do so, we first showed that minimizing a norm of the OBR is interesting. Then, we proved that the empirical norm of the OBR is consistant in the Vapnick sense (strict consistency). Finally, we framed the minimization of the empirical norm as DC minimization which allows us to rely on the literature on DCA. We conduct a generic experiment with a basic setting for DCA as we choose a canonical explicit decomposition of our DC functions criterion and a sub-gradient descent in order to minimize the intermediary convex minimization problems. We obtain similar results to AVI and API. Thus, an interesting perspective would be to have a less naive setting for DCA by choosing different explicit decompositions and find a better convex solver for the intermediary convex minimizations problems. Another interesting perspective is that our approach can be non-parametric. Indeed, as pointed in [10] a convex minimization problem can be solved via boosting techniques which avoids the choice of features. Therefore, each intermediary convex problem of DCA could be solved via a boosting technique and hence make DCA non-parametric. Thus, seeing the RL problem as a DC problem provides some interesting perspectives for future works. Acknowledgements The research leading to these results has received partial funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement number 270780 and the ANR ContInt program (MaRDi project, number ANR- 12-CORD-021 01). We also would like to thank professors Le Thi Hoai An and Pham Dinh Tao for helpful discussions about DC programming. 8 References [1] A. Antos, R. Munos, and C. Szepesv?ari. Fitted-Q iteration in continuous action-space MDPs. In Proc. of NIPS, 2007. [2] A. Antos, C. Szepesv? ari, and R. Munos. Learning near-optimal policies with Bellmanresidual minimization based fitted policy iteration and a single sample path. Machine Learning, 2008. [3] T. Archibald, K. McKinnon, and L. Thomas. On the generation of Markov decision processes. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 1995. [4] M.G. Azar, V. G? omez, and H.J Kappen. 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Convex analysis approach to DC programming: theory, algorithms and applications. Acta Mathematica Vietnamica, 22:289?355, 1997. [20] P.D. Tao and L.T.H. An. The DC programming and DCA revisited with DC models of real world nonconvex optimization problems. Annals of Operations Research, 133:23? 46, 2005. [21] G. Taylor and R. Parr. Value function approximation in noisy environments using locally smoothed regularized approximate linear programs. In Proc. of UAI, 2012. [22] V. Vapnik. Statistical learning theory. Wiley, 1998. 9
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Learning Neural Network Policies with Guided Policy Search under Unknown Dynamics Sergey Levine and Pieter Abbeel Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science University of California, Berkeley Berkeley, CA 94709 {svlevine, pabbeel}@eecs.berkeley.edu Abstract We present a policy search method that uses iteratively refitted local linear models to optimize trajectory distributions for large, continuous problems. These trajectory distributions can be used within the framework of guided policy search to learn policies with an arbitrary parameterization. Our method fits time-varying linear dynamics models to speed up learning, but does not rely on learning a global model, which can be difficult when the dynamics are complex and discontinuous. We show that this hybrid approach requires many fewer samples than model-free methods, and can handle complex, nonsmooth dynamics that can pose a challenge for model-based techniques. We present experiments showing that our method can be used to learn complex neural network policies that successfully execute simulated robotic manipulation tasks in partially observed environments with numerous contact discontinuities and underactuation. 1 Introduction Policy search methods can be divided into model-based algorithms, which use a model of the system dynamics, and model-free techniques, which rely only on real-world experience without learning a model [10]. Although model-free methods avoid the need to model system dynamics, they typically require policies with carefully designed, low-dimensional parameterizations [4]. On the other hand, model-based methods require the ability to learn an accurate model of the dynamics, which can be very difficult for complex systems, especially when the algorithm imposes restrictions on the dynamics representation to make the policy search efficient and numerically stable [5]. In this paper, we present a hybrid method that fits local, time-varying linear dynamics models, which are not accurate enough for standard model-based policy search. However, we can use these local linear models to efficiently optimize a time-varying linear-Gaussian controller, which induces an approximately Gaussian distribution over trajectories. The key to this procedure is to restrict the change in the trajectory distribution at each iteration, so that the time-varying linear model remains valid under the new distribution. Since the trajectory distribution is approximately Gaussian, this can be done efficiently, in terms of both sample count and computation time. To then learn general parameterized policies, we combine this trajectory optimization method with guided policy search. Guided policy search optimizes policies by using trajectory optimization in an iterative fashion, with the policy optimized to match the trajectory, and the trajectory optimized to minimize cost and match the policy. Previous guided policy search methods used model-based trajectory optimization algorithms that required known, differentiable system dynamics [12, 13, 14]. Using our algorithm, guided policy search can be performed under unknown dynamics. This hybrid guided policy search method has several appealing properties. First, the parameterized policy never needs to be executed on the real system ? all system interaction during training is done 1 using the time-varying linear-Gaussian controllers. Stabilizing linear-Gaussian controllers is easier than stabilizing arbitrary policies, and this property can be a notable safety benefit when the initial parameterized policy is unstable. Second, although our algorithm relies on fitting a time-varying linear dynamics model, we show that it can handle contact-rich tasks where the true dynamics are not only nonlinear, but even discontinuous. This is because the learned linear models average the dynamics from both sides of a discontinuity in proportion to how often each side is visited, unlike standard linearization methods that differentiate the dynamics. This effectively transforms a discontinuous deterministic problem into a smooth stochastic one. Third, our algorithm can learn policies for partially observed tasks by training a parameterized policy that is only allowed to observe some parts of the state space, using a fully observed formulation for the trajectory optimizer. This corresponds to full state observation during training (for example in an instrumented environment), but only partial observation at test time, making policy search for partially observed tasks significantly easier. In our evaluation, we demonstrate this capability by training a policy for inserting a peg into hole when the precise position of the hole is unknown at test time. The learned policy, represented by a neural network, acquires a strategy that searches for and finds the hole regardless of its position. The main contribution of our work is an algorithm for optimizing trajectories under unknown dynamics. We show that this algorithm outperforms prior methods in terms of both sample complexity and the quality of the learned trajectories. We also show that our method can be integrated with guided policy search, which previously required known models, to learn policies with an arbitrary parameterization, and again demonstrate that the resulting policy search method outperforms prior methods that optimize the parameterized policy directly. Our experimental evaluation includes simulated peg-in-hole insertion, high-dimensional octopus arm control, swimming, and bipedal walking. 2 Preliminaries Policy search consists of optimizing the parameters ? of a policy ?? (ut |xt ), which is a distribution over actions ut conditioned on states xt , with respect to the expectation of a cost `(xt , ut ), denoted PT E?? [ t=1 `(xt , ut )]. The expectation is under the policy and the dynamics p(xt+1 |xt , ut ), which together form a distribution over trajectories ? . We will use E?? [`(? )] to denote the expected cost. Our algorithm optimizes a time-varying linear-Gaussian policy p(ut |xt ) = N (Kt xt + kt , Ct ), which allows for a particularly efficient optimization method when the initial state distribution is narrow and approximately Gaussian. Arbitrary parameterized policies ?? are optimized using the guided policy search technique, in which ?? is trained to match one or more Gaussian policies p. In this way, we can learn a policy that succeeds from many initial states by training a single stationary, nonlinear policy ?? , which might be represented (for example) by a neural network, from multiple Gaussian policies. As we show in Section 5, this approach can outperform methods that search for the policy parameters ? directly, by taking advantage of the linear-Gaussian structure of p to accelerate learning. For clarity, we will refer to p as a trajectory distribution since, for a narrow Ct and well-behaved dynamics, it induces an approximately Gaussian distribution over trajectories, while the term ?policy? will be reserved for the parameterized policy ?? . Time-varying linear-Gaussian policies have previously been used in a number of model-based and model-free methods [25, 16, 14] due to their close connection with linear feedback controllers, which are frequently used in classic deterministic trajectory optimization. The algorithm we will describe builds on the iterative linear-Gaussian regulator (iLQG), which optimizes trajectories by iteratively constructing locally optimal linear feedback controllers under a local linearization of the dynamics and a quadratic expansion of the cost [15]. Under linear dynamics and quadratic costs, the value or cost-to-go function is quadratic, and can be computed with dynamic programming. The iLQG algorithm alternates between computing the quadratic value function around the current trajectory, and updating the trajectory using a rollout of the corresponding linear feedback controller. We will use subscripts to denote derivatives, so that `xut is the derivative of the cost at time step t with respect to (xt , ut )T , `xu,xut is the Hessian, `xt is the derivative with respect to xt , and so forth. Using N (fxt xt + fut ut , Ft ) to denote the local linear-Gaussian approximation to the dynamics, iLQG computes the first and second derivatives of the Q and value functions as follows: T T Qxu,xut = `xu,xut + fxut Vx,xt+1 fxut Qxut = `xut + fxut Vxt+1 (1) ?1 Vx,xt = Qx,xt ? QT u,xt Qu,ut Qu,x ?1 Vxt = Qxt ? QT u,xt Qu,ut Qut 2 ? t + kt + Kt (xt ? x ? t ) can be shown to minimize this quadratic QThe linear controller g(xt ) = u ? ? function, where xt and ut are the states and actions of the current trajectory, Kt = ?Q?1 u,ut Qu,xt , and kt = ?Q?1 Q . We can also construct a linear-Gaussian controller with the mean given by the ut u,ut deterministic optimal solution, and the covariance proportional to the curvature of the Q-function: ? t ), Q?1 p(ut |xt ) = N (? ut + kt + Kt (xt ? x u,ut ) Prior work has shown that this distribution optimizes a maximum entropy objective [12], given by p(? ) = arg min p(? )?N (? ) Ep [`(? )] ? H(p(? )) s.t. p(xt+1 |xt , ut ) = N (xt+1 ; fxt xt + fut ut , Ft ), (2) where H is the differential entropy. This means that the linear-Gaussian controller produces the widest, highest-entropy distribution that also minimizes the expected cost, subject to the linearized dynamics and quadratic cost function. Although this objective differs from the expected cost, it is useful as an intermediate step in algorithms that optimizes the more standard expected cost objective [20, 12]. Our method similarly uses the maximum entropy objective as an intermediate step, and converges to trajectory distribution with the optimal expected cost. However, unlike iLQG, our method operates on systems where the dynamics are unknown. 3 Trajectory Optimization under Unknown Dynamics When the dynamics N (fxt xt + fut ut , Ft ) are unknown, we can estimate them using samples {(xti , uti )T , xt+1i } from the real system under the previous linear-Gaussian controller p(ut |xt ), where ?i = {x1i , u1i , . . . , xT i , uT i } is the ith rollout. Once we estimate the linear-Gaussian dynamics at each time step, we can simply run the dynamic programming algorithm in the preceding section to obtain a new linear-Gaussian controller. However, the fitted dynamics are only valid in a local region around the samples, while the new controller generated by iLQG can be arbitrarily different from the old one. The fully model-based iLQG method addresses this issue with a line search [23], which is impractical when the rollouts must be stochastically sampled from the real system. Without the line search, large changes in the trajectory will cause the algorithm to quickly fall into unstable, costly parts of the state space, preventing convergence. We address this issue by limiting the change in the trajectory distribution in each dynamic programming pass by imposing a constraint on the KL-divergence between the old and new trajectory distribution. 3.1 KL-Divergence Constraints Under linear-Gaussian controllers, a KL-divergence constraint against the previous trajectory distribution p?(? ) can be enforced with a simple modification of the cost function. Omitting the dynamics constraint for clarity, the constrained problem is given by min p(? )?N (? ) Ep [`(? )] s.t. DKL (p(? )k? p(? )) ? . This type of policy update has previously been proposed by several authors in the context of policy search [1, 19, 17]. The objective of this optimization is the standard expected cost objective, and solving this problem repeatedly, each time setting p?(? ) to the last p(? ), will minimize Ep(xt ,ut ) [`(xt , ut )]. Using ? to represent the dual variable, the Lagrangian of this problem is Ltraj (p(? ), ?) = Ep [`(? )] + ?[DKL (p(? )k? p(? )) ? ]. Since p(xt+1 |xt , ut ) = p?(xt+1 |, xt , ut ) = N (fxt xt + fut ut , Ft ) due to the linear-Gaussian dynamics assumption, the Lagrangian can be rewritten as " # X Ltraj (p(? ), ?) = Ep(xt ,ut ) [`(xt , ut ) ? ? log p?(ut |xt )] ? ?H(p(? )) ? ?. t Dividing both sides of this equation by ? gives us an objective of the same form as Equation (2), which means that under linear dynamics we can minimize the Lagrangian with respect to p(? ) using the dynamic programming algorithm from the preceding section, with an augmented cost ? t , ut ) = 1 `(xt , ut ) ? log p?(ut |xt ). We can therefore solve the original constrained function `(x ? problem by using dual gradient descent [2], alternating between using dynamic programming to 3 minimize the Lagrangian with respect to p(? ), and adjust the dual variable according to the amount of constraint violation. Using a bracket linesearch with quadratic interpolation [7], this procedure usually converges within a few iterations, especially if we accept approximate constraint satisfaction, for example by stopping when the KL-divergence is within 10% of . Empirically, we found that the line search tends to require fewer iterations in log space, treating the dual as a function of ? = log ?, which also has the convenient effect of enforcing the positivity of ?. The dynamic programming pass does not guarantee that Q?1 u,ut , which is the covariance of the linearGaussian controller, will always remain positive definite, since nonconvex cost functions can introduce negative eigenvalues into Equation (1) [23]. To address this issue, we can simply increase ? until each Qu,ut becomes positive definite, which is always possible, since the positive definite precision matrix of p?(ut |xt ), multiplied by ?, enters additively into Qu,ut . This might sometimes result in the KL-divergence being lower than , though this happens rarely in practice. The step  can be adaptively adjusted based on the discrepancy between the improvement in total cost predicted under the linear dynamics and quadratic cost approximation, and the actual improvement, which can be estimated using the new linear dynamics and quadratic cost. Since these quantities only involve expectations of quadratics under Gaussians, they can be computed analytically. The amount of improvement obtained from optimizing p(? ) depends on the accuracy of the estimated dynamics. In general, the sample complexity of this estimation depends on the dimensionality of the state. However, the dynamics at nearby time steps and even successive iterations are correlated, and we can exploit this correlation to reduce the required number of samples. 3.2 Background Dynamics Distribution When fitting the dynamics, we can use priors to greatly reduce the number of samples required at each iteration. While these priors can be constructed using domain knowledge, a more general approach is to construct the prior from samples at other time steps and iterations, by fitting a background dynamics distribution as a kind of crude global model. For physical systems such as robots, a good choice for this distribution is a Gaussian mixture model (GMM), which corresponds to softly piecewise linear dynamics. The dynamics of a robot can be reasonably approximated with such piecewise linear functions [9], and they are well suited for contacts, which are approximately piecewise linear with a hard boundary. If we build a GMM over vectors (xt , ut , xt+1 )T , we see that within each cluster ci , the conditional ci (xt+1 |xt , ut ) represents a linear-Gaussian dynamics model, while the marginal ci (xt , ut ) specifies the region of the state-action space where this model is valid. Although the GMM models (softly) piecewise linear dynamics, it is not necessarily a good forward model, since the marginals ci (xt , ut ) will not always delineate the correct boundary between two linear modes. In the case of contacts, the boundary might have a complex shape that is not well modeled by a GMM. However, if we use the GMM to obtain a prior for linear regression, it is easy to determine the correct linear mode from the covariance of (xti , uti ) with xt+1i in the current samples at time step t. The time-varying linear dynamics can then capture different linear modes at different time steps depending on the actual observed transitions, even if the states are very similar. To use the GMM to construct a prior for the dynamics, we refit the GMM at each iteration to all of the samples at all time steps from the current iteration, as well as several prior interations, in order to ensure that sufficient samples are available. We then estimate the time-varying linear dynamics by fitting a Gaussian to the samples {xti , uti , xt+1i } at each time step, which can be conditioned on (xt , ut )T to obtain linear-Gaussian dynamics. The GMM is used to produce a normal-inverseWishart prior for the mean and covariance of this Gaussian at each time step. To obtain the prior, we infer the cluster weights for the samples at the current time step, and then use the weighted mean and covariance of these clusters as the prior parameters. We found that the best results were produced by large mixtures that modeled the dynamics in high detail. In practice, the GMM allowed us to reduce the samples at each iteration by a factor of 4 to 8, well below the dimensionality of the system. 4 General Parameterized Policies The algorithm in the preceding section optimizes time-varying linear-Gaussian controllers. To learn arbitrary parameterized policies, we combine this algorithm with a guided policy search (GPS) ap4 Algorithm 1 Guided policy search with unknown dynamics 1: for iteration k = 1 to K do 2: Generate samples {?ij } from each linear-Gaussian controller pi (? ) by performing rollouts 3: Fit the dynamics pi (xt+1 |xt , ut ) to the samples {?ij } P 4: Minimize i,t ?i,t DKL (pi (xt )?? (ut |xt )kpi (xt , ut )) with respect to ? using samples {?ij } 5: Update pi (ut |xt ) using the algorithm in Section 3 and the supplementary appendix 6: Increment dual variables ?i,t by ?DKL (pi (xt )?? (ut |xt )kpi (xt , ut )) 7: end for 8: return optimized policy parameters ? proach. In GPS methods, the parameterized policy is trained in supervised fashion to match samples from a trajectory distribution, and the trajectory distribution is optimized to minimize both its cost and difference from the current policy, thereby creating a good training set for the policy. By turning policy optimization into a supervised problem, GPS algorithms can train complex policies with thousands of parameters [12, 14], and since our trajectory optimization algorithm exploits the structure of linear-Gaussian controllers, it can optimize the individual trajectories with fewer samples than general-purpose model-free methods. As a result, the combined approach can learn complex policies that are difficult to train with prior methods, as shown in our evaluation. We build on the recently proposed constrained GPS algorithm, which enforces agreement between the policy and trajectory by means of a soft KL-divergence constraint [14]. Constrained GPS optimizes the maximum entropy objective E?? [`(? )] ? H(?? ), but our trajectory optimization method allows us to use the more standard expected cost objective, resulting in the following optimization: min Ep(? ) [`(? )] s.t. DKL (p(xt )?? (ut |xt )kp(xt , ut )) = 0 ?t. ?,p(? ) If the constraint is enforced exactly, the policy ?? (ut |xt ) is identical to p(ut |xt ), and the optimization minimizes the cost under ?? , given by E?? [`(? )]. Constrained GPS enforces these constraints softly, so that ?? and p gradually come into agreement over the course of the optimization. In general, we can use multiple distributions pi (? ), with each trajectory starting from a different initial state or in different conditions, but we will omit the subscript for simplicity, since each pi (? ) is treated identically and independently. The Lagrangian of this problem is given by LGPS (?, p, ?) = Ep(? ) [`(? )] + T X ?t DKL (p(xt )?? (ut |xt )kp(xt , ut )). t=1 The GPS Lagrangian is minimized with respect to ? and p(? ) in alternating fashion, with the dual variables ?t updated to enforce constraint satisfaction. Optimizing LGPS with respect to p(? ) corresponds to trajectory optimization, which in our case involves dual gradient descent on Ltraj in Section 3.1, and optimizing with respect ? corresponds to supervised policy optimization to minimize the weighted sum of KL-divergences. The constrained GPS method also uses dual gradient descent to update the dual variables, but we found that in practice, it is unnecessary (and, in the unknown model setting, extremely inefficient) to optimize LGPS with respect to p(? ) and ? to convergence prior to each dual variable update. Instead, we increment the dual variables after each iteration with a multiple ? of the KL-divergence (? = 10 works well), which corresponds to a penalty method. Note that the dual gradient descent on Ltraj during trajectory optimization is unrelated to the policy constraints, and is treated as an inner loop black-box optimizer by GPS. Pseudocode for our modified constrained GPS method is provided in Algorithm 1. The policy KLdivergence terms in the objective also necessitate a modified dynamic programming method, which can be found in prior work [14], but the step size constraints are still enforced as described in the preceding section, by modifying the cost. The same samples that are used to fit the dynamics are also used to train the policy, with the policy trained to minimize ?t DKL (?? (ut |xti )kp(ut |xti )) at each sampled state xti . Further details about this algorithm can be found in the supplementary appendix. Although this method optimizes the expected cost of the policy, due to the alternating optimization, its entropy tends to remain high, since both the policy and trajectory must decrease their entropy together to satisfy the constraint, which requires many alternating steps. To speed up this process, we found it useful to regularize the policy by penalizing its entropy directly, which speeds up convergence and produces more deterministic policies. 5 2D insertion 0.4 0.2 0.2 100 200 300 400 500 samples 600 700 800 0 octopus arm 5 target distance distance travelled target distance 0.6 0.4 100 200 300 400 REPSI(100Isamp) 700 itr 2 800 4 3 2 1 0 200 itr 4 400 itr 1 600 800 1000 samples itr 5 1200 1400 1600 itr 10 REPSI(20I+I500Isamp) CEMI(100Isamp) 3 CEMI(20Isamp) RWRI(100Isamp) 2 itr 1 RWRI(20Isamp) 1 0 600 itr 1 iLQG,ItrueImodel 4 500 samples swimming 5 0.8 0.6 0 3D insertion 1 target distance 1 0.8 PILCOI(5Isamp) itr 20 itr 40 oursI(20Isamp) 100 200 300 400 500 samples 600 700 800 oursI(withIGMM,I5Isamp) Figure 1: Results for learning linear-Gaussian controllers for 2D and 3D insertion, octopus arm, and swimming. Our approach uses fewer samples and finds better solutions than prior methods, and the GMM further reduces the required sample count. Images in the lower-right show the last time step for each system at several iterations of our method, with red lines indicating end effector trajectories. 5 Experimental Evaluation We evaluated both the trajectory optimization method and general policy search on simulated robotic manipulation and locomotion tasks. The state consisted of joint angles and velocities, and the actions corresponded to joint torques. The parameterized policies were neural networks with one hidden layer and a soft rectifier nonlinearity of the form a = log(1 + exp(z)), with learned diagonal Gaussian noise added to the outputs to produce a stochastic policy. This policy class was chosen for its expressiveness, to allow the policy to learn a wide range of strategies. However, due to its high dimensionality and nonlinearity, it also presents a serious challenge for policy search methods. The tasks are 2D and 3D peg insertion, octopus arm control, and planar swimming and walking. The insertion tasks require fitting a peg into a narrow slot, a task that comes up, for example, when inserting a key into a keyhole, or assembly with screws or nails. The difficulty stems from the need to align the peg with the slot and the complex contacts between the peg and the walls, which result in discontinuous dynamics. Control in the presence of contacts is known to be challenging, and this experiment is important for ascertaining how well our method can handle such discontinuities. Octopus arm control involves moving the tip of a flexible arm to a goal position [6]. The challenge in this task stems from its high dimensionality: the arm has 25 degrees of freedom, corresponding to 50 state dimensions. The swimming task requires controlling a three-link snake, and the walking task requires a seven-link biped to maintain a target velocity. The challenge in these tasks comes from underactuation. Details of the simulation and cost for each task are in the supplementary appendix. 5.1 Trajectory Optimization Figure 1 compares our method with prior work on learning linear-Gaussian controllers for peg insertion, octopus arm, and swimming (walking is discussed in the next section). The horizontal axis shows the total number of samples, and the vertical axis shows the minimum distance between the end of the peg and the bottom of the slot, the distance to the target for the octopus arm, or the total distance travelled by the swimmer. Since the peg is 0.5 units long, distances above this amount correspond to controllers that cannot perform an insertion. We compare to REPS [17], reward-weighted regression (RWR) [18, 11], the cross-entropy method (CEM) [21], and PILCO [5]. We also use iLQG [15] with a known model as a baseline, shown as a black horizontal line. REPS is a model-free method that, like our approach, enforces a KLdivergence constraint between the new and old policy. We compare to a variant of REPS that also fits linear dynamics to generate 500 pseudo-samples [16], which we label ?REPS (20 + 500).? RWR is an EM algorithm that fits the policy to previous samples weighted by the exponential of their reward, and CEM fits the policy to the best samples in each batch. With Gaussian trajectories, CEM and RWR only differ in the weights. These methods represent a class of RL algorithms that fit the policy 6 2D insertion policy distance travelled target distance 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0 100 200 300 400 500 samples 600 700 800 walking policy 20 0 100 200 300 400 500 samples CEM (100 samp) 600 swimming policy 5 0.8 0.6 distance travelled 3D insertion policy 1 target distance 1 0.8 700 800 4 3 2 1 0 200 400 600 800 1000 samples 1200 #1 #2 #3 #4 #1 #2 #3 #4 1400 1600 CEM (20 samp) 15 RWR (100 samp) 10 RWR (20 samp) 5 ours (20 samp) 0 100 200 300 400 500 samples 600 700 800 ours (with GMM, 5 samp) Figure 2: Comparison on neural network policies. For insertion, the policy was trained to search for an unknown slot position on four slot positions (shown above), and generalization to new positions is graphed with dashed lines. Note how the end effector (in red) follows the surface to find the slot, and how the swimming gait is smoother due to the stationary policy (also see supplementary video). to weighted samples, including PoWER and PI2 [11, 24, 22]. PILCO is a model-based method that uses a Gaussian process to learn a global dynamics model that is used to optimize the policy. REPS and PILCO require solving large nonlinear optimizations at each iteration, while our method does not. Our method used 5 rollouts with the GMM, and 20 without. Due to its computational cost, PILCO was provided with 5 rollouts per iteration, while other prior methods used 20 and 100. Our method learned much more effective controllers with fewer samples, especially when using the GMM. On 3D insertion, it outperformed the iLQG baseline, which used a known model. Contact discontinuities cause problems for derivative-based methods like iLQG, as well as methods like PILCO that learn a smooth global dynamics model. We use a time-varying local model, which preserves more detail, and fitting the model to samples has a smoothing effect that mitigates discontinuity issues. Prior policy search methods could servo to the hole, but were unable to insert the peg. On the octopus arm, our method succeeded despite the high dimensionality of the state and action spaces.1 Prior work used simplified ?macro-actions? to solve this task, while our method directly controlled each degree of freedom [6]. Our method also successfully learned a swimming gait, while prior model-free methods could not initiate forward motion.2 PILCO also learned an effective gait due to the smooth dynamics of this task, but its GP-based optimization required orders of magnitude more computation time than our method, taking about 50 minutes per iteration. These results suggest that our method combines the sample efficiency of model-based methods with the versatility of model-free techniques. However, this method is designed specifically for linearGaussian controllers. In the next section, we present results for learning more general policies with our method, using the linear-Gaussian controllers within the framework of guided policy search. 5.2 Neural Network Policy Learning with Guided Policy Search By using our method with guided policy search, we can learn arbitrary parameterized policies. Figure 2 shows results for training neural network policies for each task, with comparisons to prior methods that optimize the policy parameters directly.3 On swimming, our method achieved similar performance to the linear-Gaussian case, but since the neural network policy was stationary, the resulting gait was much smoother. Previous methods could only solve this task with 100 samples per iteration, with RWR eventually obtaining a distance of 0.5m after 4000 samples, and CEM reaching 2.1m after 3000. Our method was able to reach such distances with many fewer samples. 1 The high dimensionality of the octopus arm made it difficult to run PILCO, though in principle, such methods should perform well on this task given the arm?s smooth dynamics. 2 Even iLQG requires many iterations to initiate any forward motion, but then makes rapid progress. This suggests that prior methods were simply unable to get over the initial threshold of initiating forward movement. 3 PILCO cannot optimize neural network controllers, and we could not obtain reasonable results with REPS. Prior applications of REPS generally focus on simpler, lower-dimensional policy classes [17, 16]. 7 Generating walking from scratch is extremely challenging even with a known model. We therefore initialize the gait from demonstration, as in prior work [12]. The supplementary website also shows some gaits generated from scratch. To generate the initial samples, we assume that the demonstration can be stabilized with a linear feedback controller. Building such controllers around examples has been addressed in prior work [3]. The RWR and CEM policies were initialized with samples from this controller to provide a fair comparison. The walker used 5 samples per iteration with the GMM, and 40 without it. The graph shows the average distance travelled on rollouts that did not fall, and shows that only our method was able to learn walking policies that succeeded consistently. On the insertion tasks, the neural network was trained to insert the peg without precise knowledge of the position of the hole, making this a partially observed problem. The holes were placed in a region of radius 0.2 units in 2D and 0.1 units in 3D. The policies were trained on four different hole positions, and then tested on four new hole positions to evaluate generalization. The generalization results are shown with dashed lines in Figure 2. The position of the hole was not provided to the neural network, and the policies therefore had to find the hole by ?feeling? for it, with only joint angles and velocities as input. Only our method could acquire a successful strategy to locate both the training and test holes, although RWR was eventually able to insert the peg into one of the four holes in 2D. This task illustrates one of the advantages of learning expressive neural network policies, since no single trajectory-based policy can represent such a search strategy. Videos of the learned policies can be viewed at http://rll.berkeley.edu/nips2014gps/. 6 Discussion We presented an algorithm that can optimize linear-Gaussian controllers under unknown dynamics by iteratively fitting local linear dynamics models, with a background dynamics distribution acting as a prior to reduce the sample complexity. We showed that this approach can be used to train arbitrary parameterized policies within the framework of guided policy search, where the parameterized policy is optimized to match the linear-Gaussian controllers. In our evaluation, we show that this method can train complex neural network policies that act intelligently in partially observed environments, even for tasks that cannot be solved with direct model-free policy search. By using local linear models, our method is able to outperform model-free policy search methods. On the other hand, the learned models are highly local and time-varying, in contrast to model-based methods that rely on learning an effective global model [4]. This allows our method to handle even the complicated and discontinuous dynamics encountered in the peg insertion task, which we show present a challenge for model-based methods that use smooth dynamics models [5]. Our approach occupies a middle group between model-based and model-free techniques, allowing it to learn rapidly, while still succeeding in domains where the true model is difficult to learn. Our use of a KL-divergence constraint during trajectory optimization parallels several prior modelfree methods [1, 19, 17, 20, 16]. Trajectory-centric policy learning has also been explored in detail in robotics, with a focus on dynamic movement primitives (DMPs) [8, 24]. Time-varying linearGaussian controllers are in general more expressive, though they incorporate less prior information. DMPs constrain the final state to a goal state, and only encode target states, relying on an existing controller to track those states with suitable controls. The improved performance of our method is due in part to the use of stronger assumptions about the task, compared to general policy search methods. For instance, we assume that time-varying linearGaussians are a reasonable local approximation for the dynamics. While this assumption is sensible for physical systems, it would require additional work to extend to hybrid discrete-continuous tasks. Our method also suggests some promising future directions. Since the parameterized policy is trained directly on samples from the real world, it can incorporate sensory information that is difficult to simulate but useful in partially observed domains, such as force sensors on a robotic gripper, or even camera images, while the linear-Gaussian controllers are trained directly on the true state under known, controlled conditions, as in our peg insertion experiments. This could provide for superior generalization for partially observed tasks that are otherwise extremely challenging to learn. Acknowledgments This research was partly funded by a DARPA Young Faculty Award #D13AP0046. 8 References [1] J. A. Bagnell and J. Schneider. Covariant policy search. In International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI), 2003. [2] S. Boyd and L. Vandenberghe. Convex Optimization. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, 2004. [3] A. Coates, P. Abbeel, and A. Ng. Learning for control from multiple demonstrations. In International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2008. [4] M. Deisenroth, G. Neumann, and J. Peters. A survey on policy search for robotics. Foundations and Trends in Robotics, 2(1-2):1?142, 2013. [5] M. Deisenroth and C. Rasmussen. PILCO: a model-based and data-efficient approach to policy search. In International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2011. [6] Y. Engel, P. Szab?o, and D. Volkinshtein. Learning to control an octopus arm with Gaussian process temporal difference methods. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2005. [7] R. Fletcher. Practical Methods of Optimization. Wiley-Interscience, New York, NY, 1987. [8] A. Ijspeert, J. Nakanishi, and S. Schaal. Learning attractor landscapes for learning motor primitives. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2003. [9] S. M. Khansari-Zadeh and A. Billard. BM: An iterative algorithm to learn stable non-linear dynamical systems with gaussian mixture models. In International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA), 2010. [10] J. Kober, J. A. Bagnell, and J. Peters. Reinforcement learning in robotics: A survey. International Journal of Robotic Research, 32(11):1238?1274, 2013. [11] J. Kober and J. Peters. Learning motor primitives for robotics. In International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA), 2009. [12] S. Levine and V. Koltun. Guided policy search. In International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2013. [13] S. Levine and V. Koltun. Variational policy search via trajectory optimization. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2013. [14] S. Levine and V. Koltun. Learning complex neural network policies with trajectory optimization. In International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2014. [15] W. Li and E. Todorov. Iterative linear quadratic regulator design for nonlinear biological movement systems. In ICINCO (1), pages 222?229, 2004. [16] R. Lioutikov, A. Paraschos, G. Neumann, and J. Peters. Sample-based information-theoretic stochastic optimal control. In International Conference on Robotics and Automation, 2014. [17] J. Peters, K. M?ulling, and Y. Alt?un. Relative entropy policy search. In AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2010. [18] J. Peters and S. Schaal. Applying the episodic natural actor-critic architecture to motor primitive learning. In European Symposium on Artificial Neural Networks (ESANN), 2007. [19] J. Peters and S. Schaal. Reinforcement learning of motor skills with policy gradients. Neural Networks, 21(4):682?697, 2008. [20] K. Rawlik, M. Toussaint, and S. Vijayakumar. On stochastic optimal control and reinforcement learning by approximate inference. In Robotics: Science and Systems, 2012. [21] R. Rubinstein and D. Kroese. The Cross-Entropy Method: A Unified Approach to Combinatorial Optimization, Monte-Carlo Simulation and Machine Learning. Springer, 2004. [22] F. Stulp and O. Sigaud. Path integral policy improvement with covariance matrix adaptation. In International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2012. [23] Y. Tassa, T. Erez, and E. Todorov. Synthesis and stabilization of complex behaviors through online trajectory optimization. In IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems, 2012. [24] E. Theodorou, J. Buchli, and S. Schaal. Reinforcement learning of motor skills in high dimensions. In International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA), 2010. [25] M. Toussaint. Robot trajectory optimization using approximate inference. In International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2009. 9
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Near-optimal Reinforcement Learning in Factored MDPs Ian Osband Stanford University iosband@stanford.edu Benjamin Van Roy Stanford University bvr@stanford.edu Abstract Any reinforcement learning algorithm that applies to all Markov decision ? processes (MDPs) will suffer ( SAT ) regret on some MDP, where T is the elapsed time and S and A are the cardinalities of the state and action spaces. This implies T = (SA) time to guarantee a near-optimal policy. In many settings of practical interest, due to the curse of dimensionality, S and A can be so enormous that this learning time is unacceptable. We establish that, if the system is known to be a factored MDP, it is possible to achieve regret that scales polynomially in the number of parameters encoding the factored MDP, which may be exponentially smaller than S or A. We provide two algorithms that satisfy near-optimal regret bounds in this context: posterior sampling reinforcement learning (PSRL) and an upper confidence bound algorithm (UCRL-Factored). 1 Introduction We consider a reinforcement learning agent that takes sequential actions within an uncertain environment with an aim to maximize cumulative reward [1]. We model the environment as a Markov decision process (MDP) whose dynamics are not fully known to the agent. The agent can learn to improve future performance by exploring poorly-understood states and actions, but might improve its short-term rewards through a policy which exploits its existing knowledge. Efficient reinforcement learning balances exploration with exploitation to earn high cumulative reward. The vast majority of efficient reinforcement learning has focused upon the tabula rasa setting, where little prior knowledge is available about the environment beyond its state and action spaces. In this setting several algorithms have been designed to attain sample complexity polynomial in the number of states S and actions A [2, 3]. Stronger bounds on regret, the difference between an agent?s cumulative reward and that of the optimal controller, ? ? have also been developed. The strongest results of this kind establish O(S AT ) regret for ? particular algorithms [4, 5, 6] which is close to the lower bound ( SAT ) [4]. However, in many setting of interest, due to the curse of dimensionality, S and A can be so enormous that even this level of regret is unacceptable. In many practical problems the agent will have some prior understanding of the environment beyond tabula rasa. For example, in a large production line with m machines in sequence each with K possible states, we may know that over a single time-step each machine can only be influenced by its direct neighbors. Such simple observations can reduce the dimensionality of the learning problem exponentially, but cannot easily be exploited by a tabula rasa algorithm. Factored MDPs (FMDPs) [7], whose transitions can be represented by a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) [8], are one effective way to represent these structured MDPs compactly. 1 Several algorithms have been developed that exploit the known DBN structure to achieve sample complexity polynomial in the parameters of the FMDP, which may be exponentially smaller than S or A [9, 10, 11]. However, these polynomial bounds include several high order terms. We present two algorithms, UCRL-Factored and PSRL, with the first near-optimal regret bounds for factored MDPs. UCRL-Factored is an optimistic algorithm that modifies the confidence sets of UCRL2 [4] to take advantage of the network structure. PSRL is motivated by the old heuristic of Thompson sampling [12] and has been previously shown to be efficient in non-factored MDPs [13, 6]. These algorithms are descibed fully in Section 6. Both algorithms make use of approximate FMDP planner in internal steps. However, even where an FMDP can be represented concisely, solving for the optimal policy may take exponentially long in the most general case [14]. Our focus in this paper is upon the statistical aspect of the learning problem and like earlier discussions we do not specify which computational methods are used [10]. Our results serve as a reduction of the reinforcement learning problem to finding an approximate solution for a given FMDP. In many cases of interest, effective approximate planning methods for FMDPs do exist. Investigating and extending these methods are an ongoing subject of research [15, 16, 17, 18]. 2 Problem formulation We consider the problem of learning to optimize a random finite horizon MDP M = (S, A, RM , P M , ?, ?) in repeated finite episodes of interaction. S is the state space, A is the action space, RM (s, a) is the reward distibution over R in state s with action a, P M (?|s, a) is the transition probability over S from state s with action a, ? is the time horizon, and ? the initial state distribution. We define the MDP and all other random variables we will consider with respect to a probability space ( , F, P). A deterministic policy ? is a function mapping each state s ? S and i = 1, . . . , ? to an action a ? A. For each MDP M = (S, A, RM , P M , ?, ?) and policy ?, we define a value function S T ? ? M M V?,i (s) := EM,? U R (sj , aj )-si = sV , j=i M where R (s, a) denotes the expected reward realized when action a is selected while in state s, and the subscripts of the expectation operator indicate that aj = ?(sj , j), and M sj+1 ? P M (?|sj , aj ) for j = i, . . . , ? . A policy ? is optimal for the MDP M if V?,i (s) = M max?? V?? ,i (s) for all s ? S and i = 1, . . . , ? . We will associate with each MDP M a policy ?M that is optimal for M . The reinforcement learning agent interacts with the MDP over episodes that begin at times tk = (k ? 1)? + 1, k = 1, 2, . . .. At each time t, the agent selects an action at , observes a scalar reward rt , and then transitions to st+1 . Let Ht = (s1 , a1 , r1 , . . . , st?1 , at?1 , rt?1 ) denote the history of observations made prior to time t. A reinforcement learning algorithm is a deterministic sequence {?k |k = 1, 2, . . .} of functions, each mapping Htk to a probability distribution ?k (Htk ) over policies which the agent will employ during the kth episode. We define the regret incurred by a reinforcement learning algorithm ? up to time T to be: Regret(T, ?, M ? ) := ?T /? ? ? k, k=1 where k denotes regret over the kth episode, defined with respect to the MDP M ? by ? ? ? ?(s)(V?M? ,1 (s) ? V?Mk ,1 (s)) k := S with ? = ? and ?k ? ?k (Htk ). Note that regret is not deterministic since it can depend on the random MDP M ? , the algorithm?s internal random sampling and, through the history Htk , on previous random transitions and random rewards. We will assess and compare algorithm performance in terms of regret and its expectation. ? M? 2 3 Factored MDPs Intuitively a factored MDP is an MDP whose rewards and transitions exhibit some conditional independence structure. To formalize this definition we must introduce some more notation common to the literature [11]. Definition 1 (Scope operation for factored sets X = X1 ? .. ? Xn ). o For any subset of indices Z ? {1, 2, .., n} let us define the scope set X [Z] := Xi . Further, i?Z for any x ? X define the scope variable x[Z] ? X [Z] to be the value of the variables xi ? Xi with indices i ? Z. For singleton sets Z we will write x[i] for x[{i}] in the natural way. Let PX ,Y be the set of functions mapping elements of a finite set X to probability mass functions over a finite set Y. PXC,? ,R will denote the set of functions mapping elements of a finite set X to ?-sub-Gaussian probability measures over (R, B(R)) with mean bounded in [0, C]. For reinforcement learning we will write X for S ? A and consider factored reward and factored transition functions which are drawn from within these families. Definition 2 ( Factored reward functions R ? R ? PXC,? ,R ). The reward function class R is factored over S ? A = X = X1 ? .. ? Xn with scopes Z1 , ..Zl l if and only if, for all R ? R, x ? X there exist functions {Ri ? PXC,? [Zi ],R }i=1 such that, E[r] = l ? # $ E ri i=1 ql for r ? R(x) is equal to i=1 ri with each ri ? Ri (x[Zi ]) and individually observed. Definition 3 ( Factored transition functions P ? P ? PX ,S ). The transition function class P is factored over S ? A = X = X1 ? .. ? Xn and S = S1 ? .. ? Sm with scopes Z1 , ..Zm if and only if, for all P ? P, x ? X , s ? S there exist some {Pi ? PX [Zi ],Si }m i=1 such that, 3 4 m ? P (s|x) = Pi s[i] -- x[Zi ] i=1 A factored MDP (FMDP) is then defined to be an MDP with both factored rewards and factored transitions. Writing X = S ? A a FMDP is fully characterized by the tuple ! " n R l l P m m M = {Si }m i=1 ; {Xi }i=1 ; {Zi }i=1 ; {Ri }i=1 ; {Zi }i=1 ; {Pi }i=1 ; ? ; ? , where ZiR and ZiP are the scopes for the reward and transition functions respectively in {1, .., n} for Xi . We assume that the size of all scopes |Zi | ? ? ? n and factors |Xi | ? K so that the domains of Ri and Pi are of size at most K ? . 4 Results Our first result shows that we can bound the expected regret of PSRL. Theorem 1 (Expected regret for PSRL in factored MDPs). ! " n R l P m Let M ? be factored with graph structure G = {Si }m i=1 ; {Xi }i=1 ; {Zi }i=1 ; {Zi }i=1 ; ? . If ? is the distribution of M ? and is the span of the optimal value function then we can bound the regret of PSRL: < l ; ? ? ! " # $ ? E Regret(T, ??PS , M ? ) ? 5? C|X [ZiR ]| + 12? |X [ZiR ]|T log 4l|X [ZiR ]|kT +2 T 3 i=1 4 +4 + E[ ] 1 + T ?4 4? m ; j=1 5? |X [ZjP ]| + 12 ? |X [ZjP ]||Sj |T log ! 4m|X [ZjP ]|kT We have a similar result for UCRL-Factored that holds with high probability. 3 " < (1) Theorem 2 (High probability regret for UCRL-Factored in factored MDPs). ! " n R l P m Let M ? be factored with graph structure G = {Si }m ; {X i }i=1 ; {Zi }i=1 ; {Zi }i=1 ; ? . If i=1 D is the diameter of M ? , then for any M ? can bound the regret of UCRL-Factored: < l ; ? ? ? ! " Regret(T, ??UC , M ? ) ? 5? C|X [ZiR ]| + 12? |X [ZiR ]|T log 12l|X [ZiR ]|kT /? + 2 T i=1 < m ; ? ? ? ! " +CD 2T log(6/?) + CD 5? |X [ZjP ]| + 12 |X [ZjP ]||Sj |T log 12m|X [ZjP ]|kT /? (2) j=1 with probability at least 1 ? ? ? Both algorithms give bounds O 1 q 2 ? m |X [ZjP ]||Sj |T where j=1 is a measure of MDP connectedness: expected span E[ ] for PSRL and scaled diameter CD for UCRL-Factored. The span of an MDP is the maximum difference in value of any two states under the optimal ? ? policy (M ? ) := maxs,s? ?S {V?M? ,1 (s) ? V?M? ,1 (s? )}. The diameter of an MDP is the maximum ? number of expected timesteps to get between any two states D(M ? ) = maxs?=s? min? Ts?s ?. PSRL?s bounds are tighter since (M ) ? CD(M ) and may be exponentially smaller. However, UCRL-Factored has stronger probabilistic guarantees than PSRL since its bounds hold with high probability for any MDP M ? not just in expectation. There is an optimistic algorithm REGAL [5] which formally replaces the UCRL2 D with and retains the high probability guarantees. An analogous extension to REGAL-Factored is possible, however, no practical implementation of that algorithm exists even with an FMDP planner. The algebra in Theorems 1 and 2 can be overwhelming. For clarity, we present a symmetric problem instance for which we can produce a cleaner single-term upper bound. Let Q be shorthand for the simple graph structure with l + 1 = m, C = ? = 1, |Si | = |Xi | = K and |ZiR | = |ZjP | = ? for i = 1, .., l and j = 1, .., m, we will write J = K ? . Corollary 1 (Clean bounds for PSRL in a symmetric problem). If ? is the distribution of M ? with structure Q then we can bound the regret of PSRL: ? # $ E Regret(T, ??PS , M ? ) ? 15m? JKT log(2mJT ) (3) Corollary 2 (Clean bounds for UCRL-Factored in a symmetric problem). For any MDP M ? with structure Q we can bound the regret of UCRL-Factored: ? Regret(T, ??UC , M ? ) ? 15m? JKT log(12mJT /?) (4) with probability at least 1 ? ?. ? ? m JKT ) which is exponentially tighter than can be Both algorithms satisfy bounds of O(? obtained by any Q-naive algorithm. For a factored MDP with m independent components ? ? ? with S states and A actions the bound O(mS AT ) is close to the lower bound (m SAT ) and so the bound is near optimal. The corollaries follow directly from Theorems 1 and 2 as shown in Appendix B. 5 Confidence sets Our analysis will rely upon the construction of confidence sets based around the empirical estimates for the underlying reward and transition functions. The confidence sets are constructed to contain the true MDP with high probability. This technique is common to the literature, but we will exploit the additional graph structure G to sharpen the bounds. Consider a family of functions F ? MX ,(Y, Y ) which takes x ? X to a probability distribution over (Y, Y ). We will write MX ,Y unless we wish to stress a particular ?-algebra. Definition 4 (Set widths). Let X be a finite set, and let (Y, Y ) be a measurable space. The width of a set F ? MX ,Y at x ? X with respect to a norm ? ? ? is wF (x) := sup ?(f ? f )(x)? f ,f ?F 4 Our confidence set sequence {Ft ? F : t ? N} is initialized with a set F. We adapt our confidence set to the observations yt ? Y which are drawn from the true function f ? ? F at measurement points xt ? X so that yt ? f ? (xt ). Each confidence set is then centered around an empirical estimate f?t ? MX ,Y at time t, defined by f?t (x) = ? 1 ?y , nt (x) ? <t:x =x ? ? where nt (x) is the number of time x appears in (x1 , .., xt?1 ) and ?yt is the probability mass function over Y that assigns all probability to the outcome yt . Our sequence of confidence sets depends on our choice of norm ? ? ? and a non-decreasing sequence {dt : t ? N}. For each t, the confidence set is defined by: ? I J dt t?1 ? Ft = Ft (? ? ?, x1 , dt ) := f ? F - ?(f ? ft )(xi )? ? ?i = 1, .., t ? 1 . nt (xi ) Where xt?1 is shorthand for (x1 , .., xt?1 ) and we interpret nt (xi ) = 0 as a null constraint. 1 The following result shows that we can bound the sum of confidence widths through time. Theorem 3 (Bounding the sum of widths). For all finite sets X , measurable spaces (Y, Y ), function classes F ? MX ,Y with uniformly bounded widths wF (x) ? CF ?x ? X and non-decreasing sequences {dt : t ? N}: L ? ? ? k=1 i=1 ? ! " wFk (xtk +i ) ? 4 ? CF |X | + 1 + 4 2dT |X |T (5) Proof. The proof follows from elementary counting arguments on nt (x) and the pigeonhole principle. A full derivation is given in Appendix A. 6 Algorithms With our notation established, we are now able to introduce our algorithms for efficient learning in Factored MDPs. PSRL and UCRL-Factored proceed in episodes of fixed policies. At the start of the kth episode they produce a candidate MDP Mk and then proceed with the policy which is optimal for Mk . In PSRL, Mk is generated by a sample from the posterior for M ? , whereas UCRL-Factored chooses Mk optimistically from the confidence set Mk . Both algorithms require prior knowledge of the graphical structure G and an approximate planner for FMDPs. We will write (M, ?) for a planner which returns ?-optimal policy for M . We will write ? (M, ?) for a planner which returns an ?-optimal policy for most optimistic realization from a family of MDPs M. Given it is possible to obtain ? through extended value iteration, although this might become computationally intractable [4]. PSRL remains identical to earlier treatment [13, 6] provided G is encoded in the prior ?. UCRL-Factored is a modification to UCRL2 that can exploit the graph and episodic j Pj i structure of . We write Rit (dR t ) and Pt (dt ) as shorthand for these confidence sets Pj Ri t?1 R i P i Rit (|E[?]|, xt?1 1 [Zi ], dt ) and Pt (? ? ?1 , x1 [Zj ], dt ) generated from initial sets R1 = C,? j PX [Z R ],R and P1 = PX [ZjP ],Sj . i We should note that UCRL2 was designed to obtain regret bounds even in MDPs without episodic reset. This is accomplished by imposing artificial episodes which end whenever the number of visits to a state-action pair is doubled [4]. It is simple to extend UCRLFactored?s guarantees to this setting using this same strategy. This will not work for PSRL since our current analysis requires that the episode length is independent of the sampled MDP. Nevertheless, there has been good empirical performance using this method for MDPs without episodic reset in simulation [6]. 5 Algorithm 1 PSRL (Posterior Sampling) Algorithm 2 UCRL-Factored (Optimism) 1: Input: Prior ? encoding G, t = 1 2: for episodes k = 1, 2, .. do 3: sample Mk ? ?(?|Ht ) ? 4: compute ?k = (Mk , ? /k) 5: for timesteps j = 1, .., ? do 6: sample and apply at = ?k (st , j) 7: observe rt and sm t+1 8: t=t+1 9: end for 10: end for 7 1: Input: Graph structure G, confidence ?, t = 1 2: for episodes k =!1, 2, .. do " 2 R i 3: dR t = 4? log 4l|X [Zi ]|k/? for i = 1, .., l 4: ! " dt j = 4|Sj | log 4m|X [ZjP ]|k/? for j = 1, .., m P j j i 5: Mk = {M |G, Ri ? Rit? (dR t ), Pj ? Pt (dt ) ?i, j} 6: compute ?k = ? (Mk , ? /k) 7: for timesteps u = 1, .., ? do 8: sample and apply at = ?k (st , u) 9: observe rt1 , .., rtl and s1t+1 , .., sm t+1 10: t=t+1 11: end for 12: end for P Analysis ? k refer generally to For our common analysis of PSRL and UCRL-Factored we will let M either the sampled MDP used in PSRL or the optimistic MDP chosen from Mk with associated policy ? ?k ). We introduce the Bellman operator T?M , which for any MDP M = (S, A, RM , P M , ?, ?), stationary policy ? : S ? A and value function V : S ? R, is defined by ? M T?M V (s) := R (s, ?(s)) + P M (s? |s, ?(s))V (s? ). s? ?S This returns the expected value of state s where we follow the policy ? under the laws of M M , for one time step. We will streamline our discussion of P M , RM , V?,i and T?M by simply ? ? ? k or ? writing ? in? place of M or ? and k in place of M ?k where appropriate; for example ? Vk,i := V??Mk ,i . We will also write xk,i := (stk +i , ?k (stk +i )). We now break down the regret by adding and subtracting the imagined near optimal reward of policy ? ?K , which is known to the agent. For clarity of analysis we consider only the case of ?(s? ) = 1{s? = s} but this changes nothing for our consideration of finite S. 3 4 3 4 ? ? k ? ? k = V (s) ? V (s) = V (s) ? V (s) + V (s) ? V (s) (6) k ?,1 k,1 k,1 k,1 ?,1 k,1 ? k ? k . We V?,1 ? Vk,1 relates the optimal rewards of the MDP M ? to those near optimal for M ? can bound this difference by the planning accuracy 1/k for PSRL in expectation, since M ? and Mk are equal in law, and for UCRL-Factored in high probability by optimism. We decompose the first term through repeated application of dynamic programming: ! ? ? ? ? " ! k " k k ? ? Vk,1 ? Vk,1 (stk +1 ) = Tk,i ? Tk,i Vk,i+1 (stk +i ) + dtk +1 . Where dtk +i := i=1 (7) i=1 ? ? ? ? k ? k P (s|x )(V ? V )(s) ? (Vk,i+1 ? Vk,i+1 )(stk +i ) is a mark,i k,i+1 k,i+1 s?S q k tingale difference bounded by k , the span of Vk,i . For UCRL-Factored we can use optimism to say that k ? CD [4] and apply the Azuma-Hoeffding inequality to say that: Am ? B ?? ? (8) P dtk +i > CD 2T log(2/?) ? ? k=1 i=1 ? k . Crucially this The remaining term is the one step Bellman error of the imagined MDP M term only depends on states and actions xk,i which are actually observed. We can now use 6 the H? older inequality to bound ? ? ! i=1 7.1 ? ? " k 1 k ? k ? Tk,i ? Tk,i Vk,i+1 (stk +i ) ? |R (xk,i )?R (xk,i )|+ 2 i=1 k ?P k (?|xk,i )?P ? (?|xk,i )?1 (9) Factorization decomposition We aim to exploit the graphical structure G to create more efficient confidence sets Mk . It is ? k clear from (9) that we may upper bound the deviations of R , R factor-by-factor using the triangle inequality. Our next result, Lemma 1, shows we can also do this for the transition functions P ? and P k . This is the key result that allows us to build confidence sets around each factor Pj? rather than P ? as a whole. Lemma 1 (Bounding factored deviations). Let the transition function class P ? PX ,S be factored over X = X1 ? .. ? Xn and S = S1 ? .. ? Sm with scopes Z1 , ..Zm . Then, for any P, P? ? P we may bound their L1 distance by the sum of the differences of their factorizations: ?P (x) ? P? (x)?1 ? m ? i=1 ?Pi (x[Zi ]) ? P?i (x[Zi ])?1 Proof. We begin with the simple claim that for any ?1 , ?2 , ?1 , ?2 ? (0, 1]: ?1 ?2 -|?1 ?2 ? ?1 ?2 | = ?2 --?1 ? ?2 -4 3 ?1 ?2 -? ?2 |?1 ? ?1 | + -?1 ? ?2 ? ?2 |?1 ? ?1 | + ?1 |?2 ? ?2 | This result also holds for any ?1 , ?2 , ?1 , ?2 ? [0, 1], where 0 can be verified case by case. We now consider the probability distributions p, p? over {1, .., d1 } and q, q? over {1, .., d2 }. We ? = p?q?T be the joint probability distribution over {1, .., d1 } ? {1, .., d2 }. Using let Q = pq T , Q ? 1 by the deviations of their factors: the claim above we bound the L1 deviation ?Q ? Q? ? 1 ?Q ? Q? = d1 ? d2 ? i=1 j=1 ? d1 ? d2 ? i=1 j=1 |pi qj ? p?i q?j | qj |pi ? p?i | + p?i |qj ? q?j | = ?p ? p??1 + ?q ? q??1 We conclude the proof by applying this m times to the factored transitions P and P? . 7.2 Concentration guarantees for Mk We now want to show that the true MDP lies within Mk with high probability. Note that posterior sampling will also allow us to then say that the sampled Mk is within Mk with high probability too. In order to show this, we first present a concentration result for the L1 deviation of empirical probabilities. Lemma 2 (L1 bounds for the empirical transition function). For all finite sets X , finite sets Y, function classes P ? PX ,Y then for any x ? X , ? > 0 the deviation the true distribution P ? to the empirical estimate after t samples P?t is bounded: 3 4 1 2 nt (x)?2 ? ? P ?P (x) ? Pt (x)?1 ? ? ? exp |Y| log(2) ? 2 7 Proof. This is a relaxation of the result proved by Weissman [19]. Lemma 2 ensures that for any x ? X P(?Pj? (x) ? P?j t (x)?1 ? ? 2|Sj | nt (x) log !2" ?? ) ? ? ? . We ? ? then define dtkj = 2|Si | log(2/?k,j ) with ?k,j = ?/(2m|X [ZjP ]|k 2 ). Now using a union bound P we conclude P(Pj? ? Ptj (dtkj ) ?k ? N, j = 1, .., m) ? 1 ? ?. P Lemma 3 (Tail bounds for sub ?-gaussian random variables). If {?i } are all independent and sub ?-gaussian then ?? ? 0: A B 3 4 n 1 ? n? 2 P | ?i | > ? ? exp log(2) ? n i=1 2? 2 2 1 ? i A similar argument now ensures that P Ri ? Rit (dR ) ?k ? N, i = 1, .., l ? 1 ? ?, and so tk 3 4 P M ? ? Mk ?k ? N ? 1 ? 2? (10) 7.3 Regret bounds We now have all the necessary intermediate results to complete our proof. We begin with the analysis of PSRL. Using equation (10) and the fact that M ? , Mk are equal in law by posterior sampling, we can say that P(M ? , Mk ? Mk ?k ? N) ? 1 ??4?. The contributions qm ? from regret in planning function are bounded by k=1 ? /k ? 2 T . From here we take equation (9), Lemma 1 and Theorem 3 to say that for any ? > 0: < ? l ; ? ? # $ Ri PS ? R R E Regret(T, ?? , M ) ? 4?T + 2 T + 4(? C|X [Zi ]| + 1) + 4 2dT |X [Zi ]|T i=1 + sup k=1,..,L ! E[ < ? m ; " ? Pj ? P P ]|T |M , M ? M ] ? 4(? |X [Z ]| + 1) + 4 2d |X [Z k k k j j T j=1 Let A = {M , Mk ? Mk }, since k ? 0 and by posterior sampling E[ k ] = E[ ] for all k: 3 4?1 3 4 3 4 4? 4? 4? ?1 E[ k |A] ? P(A) E[ ] ? 1 ? 2 E[ ] = 1 + 2 E[ ] ? 1 + E[ ]. k k ? 4? 1 ? 4? ? j i Plugging in dR T and dT and setting ? = 1/T completes the proof of Theorem 1. The analysis of UCRL-Factored and Theorem 2 follows similarly from (8) and (10). Corollaries 1 and 2 follow from substituting the structure Q and upper bounding the constant and logarithmic terms. This is presented in detail in Appendix B. P 8 Conclusion We present the first algorithms with near-optimal regret bounds in factored MDPs. Many practical problems for reinforcement learning will have extremely large state and action spaces, this allows us to obtain meaningful performance guarantees even in previously intractably large systems. However, our analysis leaves several important questions unaddressed. First, we assume access to an approximate FMDP planner that may be computationally prohibitive in practice. Second, we assume that the graph structure is known a priori but there are other algorithms that seek to learn this from experience [20, 21]. Finally, we might consider dimensionality reduction in large MDPs more generally, where either the rewards, transitions or optimal value function are known to belong in some function class F to obtain bounds that depend on the dimensionality of F. Acknowledgments Osband is supported by Stanford Graduate Fellowships courtesy of PACCAR inc. This work was supported in part by Award CMMI-0968707 from the National Science Foundation. 8 References [1] Apostolos Burnetas and Michael Katehakis. Optimal adaptive policies for Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Operations Research, 22(1):222?255, 1997. [2] Michael Kearns and Satinder Singh. Near-optimal reinforcement learning in polynomial time. Machine Learning, 49(2-3):209?232, 2002. [3] Ronen Brafman and Moshe Tennenholtz. R-max-a general polynomial time algorithm for near-optimal reinforcement learning. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3:213?231, 2003. [4] Thomas Jaksch, Ronald Ortner, and Peter Auer. Near-optimal regret bounds for reinforcement learning. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 99:1563?1600, 2010. [5] Peter Bartlett and Ambuj Tewari. Regal: A regularization based algorithm for reinforcement learning in weakly communicating MDPs. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Fifth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, pages 35?42. AUAI Press, 2009. [6] Ian Osband, Daniel Russo, and Benjamin Van Roy. (More) Efficient Reinforcement Learning via Posterior Sampling. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2013. [7] Craig Boutilier, Richard Dearden, and Mois?es Goldszmidt. Stochastic dynamic programming with factored representations. Artificial Intelligence, 121(1):49?107, 2000. [8] Zoubin Ghahramani. Learning dynamic bayesian networks. In Adaptive processing of sequences and data structures, pages 168?197. Springer, 1998. [9] Alexander Strehl. Model-based reinforcement learning in factored-state MDPs. In Approximate Dynamic Programming and Reinforcement Learning, 2007. ADPRL 2007. IEEE International Symposium on, pages 103?110. IEEE, 2007. [10] Michael Kearns and Daphne Koller. Efficient reinforcement learning in factored MDPs. In IJCAI, volume 16, pages 740?747, 1999. [11] Istv? an Szita and Andr? as L? orincz. Optimistic initialization and greediness lead to polynomial time learning in factored MDPs. In Proceedings of the 26th Annual International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 1001?1008. ACM, 2009. [12] William Thompson. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika, 25(3/4):285?294, 1933. [13] Malcom Strens. A Bayesian framework for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 943?950, 2000. [14] Carlos Guestrin, Daphne Koller, Ronald Parr, and Shobha Venkataraman. Efficient solution algorithms for factored MDPs. J. Artif. Intell. Res.(JAIR), 19:399?468, 2003. [15] Daphne Koller and Ronald Parr. Policy iteration for factored MDPs. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 326?334. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2000. [16] Carlos Guestrin, Daphne Koller, and Ronald Parr. Max-norm projections for factored MDPs. In IJCAI, volume 1, pages 673?682, 2001. [17] Karina Valdivia Delgado, Scott Sanner, and Leliane Nunes De Barros. Efficient solutions to factored MDPs with imprecise transition probabilities. Artificial Intelligence, 175(9):1498? 1527, 2011. [18] Scott Sanner and Craig Boutilier. Approximate linear programming for first-order MDPs. arXiv preprint arXiv:1207.1415, 2012. [19] Tsachy Weissman, Erik Ordentlich, Gadiel Seroussi, Sergio Verdu, and Marcelo J Weinberger. Inequalities for the L1 deviation of the empirical distribution. Hewlett-Packard Labs, Tech. Rep, 2003. [20] Alexander Strehl, Carlos Diuk, and Michael Littman. Efficient structure learning in factoredstate MDPs. In AAAI, volume 7, pages 645?650, 2007. [21] Carlos Diuk, Lihong Li, and Bethany R Leffler. The adaptive k-meteorologists problem and its application to structure learning and feature selection in reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 26th Annual International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 249?256. ACM, 2009. 9
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Optimizing Energy Production Using Policy Search and Predictive State Representations Yuri Grinberg Doina Precup School of Computer Science, McGill University Montreal, QC, Canada {ygrinb,dprecup}@cs.mcgill.ca Michel Gendreau? ? Ecole Polytechnique de Montr?eal Montreal, QC, Canada michel.gendreau@cirrelt.ca Abstract We consider the challenging practical problem of optimizing the power production of a complex of hydroelectric power plants, which involves control over three continuous action variables, uncertainty in the amount of water inflows and a variety of constraints that need to be satisfied. We propose a policy-search-based approach coupled with predictive modelling to address this problem. This approach has some key advantages compared to other alternatives, such as dynamic programming: the policy representation and search algorithm can conveniently incorporate domain knowledge; the resulting policies are easy to interpret, and the algorithm is naturally parallelizable. Our algorithm obtains a policy which outperforms the solution found by dynamic programming both quantitatively and qualitatively. 1 Introduction The efficient harnessing of renewable energy has become paramount in an era characterized by decreasing natural resources and increasing pollution. While some efforts are aimed towards the development of new technologies for energy production, it is equally important to maximize the efficiency of existing sustainable energy production methods [5], such as hydroelectric power plants. In this paper, we consider an instance of this problem, specifically the optimization of one of a complex of hydroelectric power plants operated by Hydro-Qu?ebec, the largest hydroelectricity producer in Canada [17]. The problem of optimizing hydroelectric power plants, also known as the reservoir management problem, has been extensively studied for several decades and a variety of computational methods have been applied to solve it (see e.g. [3, 4] a for literature review). The most common approach is based on dynamic programming (DP) [13]. However, one of the major obstacles of this approach lies in the difficulty of incorporating different forms of domain knowledge, which are key to obtaining solutions that are practically relevant. For example, the optimization is subject to constraints on water levels which might span several time-steps, making them difficult to integrate into typical DPbased algorithms. Moreover, human decision makers in charge of the power plants are reluctant to rely on black-box closed loop policies that are hard to understand. This has led to continued use in the industry of deterministic optimization methods that provide long-term open loop policies; such policies are then further adjusted by experts [2]. Finally, despite the different measures taken to relieve the curse of dimensionality in DP-style approaches, it remains a big concern for large scale problems. In this paper, we develop and evaluate a variation of simulation?based optimization [16], a special case of policy search [6], which combines some aspects of stochastic gradient descent and block ? NSERC/Hydro-Qu?ebec Industrial Research Chair on the Stochastic Optimization of Electricity Genera? tion, CIRRELT and D?epartement de Math?ematiques et de G?enie Industriel, Ecole Polytechnique de Montr?eal. 1 coordinate descent [14]. We compare our solution to a DP-based solution developed by HydroQu?ebec based on historical inflow data, and show both quantitative and qualitative improvement. We demonstrate how domain knowledge can be naturally incorporated into an easy-to-interpret policy representation, as well as used to guide the policy search algorithm. We use a type of predictive state representations [9, 10] to learn a model for the water inflows. The policy representation further leverages the future inflow predictions obtained from this model. The approach is very easy to parallelize, and therefore easily scalable to larger problems, due to the availability of low-cost computing resources. Although much effort in this paper goes to analyzing and solving one specific problem, the proposed approach is general and could be applied to any sequential optimization problems involving constraints. At the end of the paper, we summarize the utility of this approach from a domain?independent perspective. The paper is organized as follows. Sec. 2 provides information about the hydroelectric power plant complex (needed to implement the simulator used in the policy search procedure) and describes the generative model used by Hydro-Qu?ebec to generate inflow data with similar statistical properties as inflows observed historically. Sec. 3 describes the learning algorithm that produces a predictive model for the inflows, based on recent advances in predictive state representations. In Sec. 4 we present the policy representation and the search algorithm. Sec. 5 presents a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the results, and Sec. 6 concludes the paper. 2 Problem specification We consider a hydroelectric power plant system consisting of four sites, R1 , . . . ,R4 operating on the same course of water. Although each site has a group of turbines, we treat this group as a single large turbine whose speed is to be controlled. R4 is the topmost site, and water turbined at reservoir Ri flows to Ri?1 (where it gets added to any other naturally incoming flows). The topmost three sites (R2 ,R3 ,R4 ) have their own reservoirs, in which water accumulates before being pushed through a number of turbines which generate the electricity. However, some amount of water might not be useful for producing electricity because it is spilled (e.g., to prevent reservoir overflow). Typically, policies that manage to reduce spillage produce more power. The amount of water in each reservoir changes as a function of the water turbined/spilled from the upstream site, the water inflow coming from the ground, and the amount of water turbined/spilled at the current site, as follows: V4 (t + 1) = V4 (t) + I4 (t) ? X4 (t) ? Y4 (t), Vi (t + 1) = Vi (t) + Xi+1 (t) + Yi+1 (t) + Ii (t) ? Xi (t) ? Yi (t), i = 2, 3 where Vi (t) is the volume of water at reservoir Ri at time t, Xi (t) is the amount of water turbined at Ri at time t, Yi (t) is the amount of water spilled at site Ri at time t, and Ii (t) is water inflow to site Ri at time t. Since R1 does not have a reservoir, all the incoming water is used to operate the turbine, and the extra water is spilled. At the other sites, the water spillage mechanism is used only as a means to prevent reservoir overflow. The control problem that needs to be solved is to determine the amount of water to turbine during each period t, in order to maximize power production, while also satisfying constraints on the water level. We are interested in a problem considered of intermediate temporal resolution, in which a control action at each of the 3 topmost sites is chosen weekly, after observing the state of the reservoirs and the inflows of the previous week. Power production model The amount of power produced is a function of the current water level (headwater) at the reservoir and the total speed of the turbines (m3 /s). It is not a linear function, but it is well approximated by a piece-wise linear function for a fixed value of the headwater (see Fig. A.1 in the supplementary material) . The following equation is used to obtain the power production curve for other values of the headwater [18]:  1.5  ?0.5 ! h h P (x, h) = ? Pref ?x , (1) href href where x is the flow, h is the current headwater level, href is the reference headwater, and Pref is the production curve of the reference headwater. Note that Eq. 1 implies that the maximum total 2 i?0.5 h h x should not speed of the turbines also changes as the headwater changes; specifically, href exceed the maximum total speed of the turbines, given in the appendix figures. For completeness, Figure A.2 (supplementary material) can be used to convert the amount of water in the reservoir to the headwater value. Constraints Several constraints must be satisfied while operating the plant, which are ecological in nature. 1. Minimum turbine speed at R1 (M IN F LOW (w), w ? {1, ..., 52}): This sufficient flow needs to be maintained to allow for easy passage for the fish living in the river. 2. Stable turbine speed throughout weeks 43-45 (fluctuations of up to BU F F ER = 35 m3 /s between weeks are acceptable). Nearly constant water flow at this time of the year ensures that the area is favorable for fish spawning. 3. The amount of water in reservoir R2 should not go below M IN V OL = 1360 hm3 . Due to the depth of the reservoir, the top and bottom water temperatures differ. Turbining warmer water (at reservoir?s top) is preferrable for the fish, but this constraint is less important than the previous two. Water inflow process The operation of the hydroelectric power plant is almost entirely dependent on the inflows at each site. Historical data suggests that it is safe to assume that the inflows at different sites in the same period t are just scaled values of each other. However, there is relatively little data available to optimize the problem through simulation: there are only 54 years of inflow data, which translates into 2808 values (one value per week - see Fig. 1). Hydro-Quebec use this data to learn a generative model for inflows. It is a periodic autoregressive model of first order, PAR(1), whose structure is well aligned with the hydrological description of the inflows [1]. The model generates data using the following equation: x(t + 1) = ?t mod N ? x(t) + ?(t), where ?(t) ? N (0, ?t mod N ) i.i.d., x(0) = ?(0), and N = 52 in our setting. As the weekly historical data is not necessarily normally distributed, transformations are used to normalize the data before learning the parameters of the PAR(1) model. The transformations used here are either logarithmic, ln(X + a), where a is a parameter, or gamma, based on Wilson Hilferty transformation [15]. Hence, to generate synthetic data, the reverse of these transformations are applied to the output produced by the PAR(1) process1 . Figure 1: Historical inflow data. 1 The parameters of the PAR(1) process, as well as the transformations and their parameters (in the logarithmic case) are estimated using the SAMS software [11]. 3 3 Predictive modeling of the inflows It is intuitively clear that predicting future inflows well could lead to better control policies. In this section, we describe the model that lets us compute the predictions of future inflows, which are used as an input to policies. We use a recently developed time series modelling framework based on predictive state representations (PSRs) [9, 10], called mixed-observable PSRs (MO-PSR) [8]. Although one could estimate future inflows based on knowledge that the generative process is PAR(1), our objective is to use a general modelling tool that does not rely on this assumption, for two reasons. First, decoupling the generative model from the predictive model allows us to replace the current generative model with more complex alternatives later on, with little effort. Moreover, more complex models do not necessary have a clear way to estimate a sufficient statistic from a given history (see e.g. temporal disaggregation models [12]). Second, we want to test the ability of predictive state representations, which are a fairly recent approach, to produce a model that is useful in a real-world control problem. We now describe the models and learning algorithms used. 3.1 Predictive state representations (Linear) PSRs were introduced as a means to represent a partially observable environment without explicitly modelling latent states, with the goal of developing efficient learning algorithms [9, 10]. A predictive representation is only required to keep some form of sufficient statistic of the past, which is used to predict the probability of future sequences of observations generated by the underlying stochastic process. Let O be a discrete observation space. With probability P(o1 , ..., ok ), the process outputs a sequence of observations o1 , ..., ok ? O. Then, for some n ? N, the set of parameters {m? ? Rn , {Mo ? Rn?n }o?O , p0 ? Rn } defines a n-dimensional linear PSR that represents this process if the following holds: ?k ? N, oi ? O : P(o1 , ..., ok ) = m> ? Mok ? ? ? Mo1 p0 , where p0 is the initial state of the PSR [7]. Let p(h) be the PSR state corresponding to a history h. Then, for any o ? O, it is possible to track a sufficient statistic of the history, which can be used to make any future predictions, using the equation: Mo p(h) p(ho) , > . m? Mo p(h) Because PSRs are very general, learning can be difficult without exploiting some structure of the problem domain. In our problem, knowing the week of the year gives significant information to the predictive model, but the model does not need to learn the dynamics of this variable. This turns out to be a special case of the so-called mixed observable PSR model [8], in which an observation variable can be used to decompose the problem into several, typically much smaller, problems. 3.2 Mixed-observable PSR for inflow process We define the discrete observation space O by discretizing the space of inflows into 20 bins, then follow [8] to estimate a MO-PSR representation from 3 ? 105 trajectories obtained from the generative model. This procedure is a generalization of the spectral learning algorithm developed for PSRs [7], which is a consistent estimator. Specifically, let the set of all observed tuples of sequences of length 3 be denoted by H and T simultaneously. We then split the set H into 52 subsets, each corresponding to a different week Figure 2: Prediction accuracy of the mean preof the year, and obtain a collection {Hw }w?W , dictor (blue), MO-PSR predictor (black), and the where W = {1, ..., 52}. Then, we estimate a predictions calculated from a true model (red). collection of the following vectors and matrices from data: 4 ? {PHw }w?W - a set of |Hw |-dimensional vectors with entries equal to P(h ? Hw |h occured right before week w), ? {PT ,Hw }w?W - a set of |T | ? |Hw |-dimensional matrices with entries equal to P(h, t|h ? Hw , t ? T , h occured right before week w), ? {PT ,o,Hw }w?W,o?O - a set of |T | ? |Hw |-dimensional matrices with entries equal to P(h, o, t|h ? Hw , o ? O, t ? T , h occured right before week w). Finally, we perform Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) on the estimated matrices {PT ,Hw }w?W and use their corresponding low rank matrices of left singular vectors {Uw }w?W to compute the MO-PSR parameters as follows: > > ? ? ?o ? O, w ? W : Bw o = Uw?1 PT ,o,Hw (Uw PT ,Hw ) , > ? ?w ? W : bw 0 = Uw PT ,Hw 1, > ? ? ?w ? W : bw ? = (PT ,Hw Uw ) PHw , where w ? 1 is the week before w, and ? denotes the Moore?Penrose pseudoinverse. The above parameters can be used to estimate probability of any sequence of future observations, given starting week w, as: w P(o1 , ..., ot ) = bw+t> Bw+t?1 ? ? ? Bw ? ot o1 b0 , where w + i represents the i-th week after w. Figure 2 shows the prediction accuracy of the learnt MO-PSR model at different horizons, compared to two baselines: the weekly average, and the true PAR(1) model that knows the hidden state (oracle predictor). 4 Policy search The objective is to maximize the expected return, E(R), over each year, given by the amount of power produced that year minus the penalty for constraint violations. Specifically, " # 52 3 X X R= P (w) ? ?i Ci (w) , w=1 i=1 where P (w) is the amount of power produced during week w, and Ci (w) is the penalty for violating the i-th constraint, defined as: C1 (w) = min{M IN F LOW (w) ? R1 f low(w), 0}2  min{|R1 f low(w) ? meanR1 f low| ? BU F F ER, 0}2 C2 (w) = 0 if w ? {43, 44, 45} otherwise 3 C3 (w) = min{M IN V OL ? R2 vol(w), 0} /2 where R1 f low(w) is the water flow (turbined + spilled) at R1 during week w, R2 vol(w) is the water volume at R2 at the end of week w, and meanR1 f low is the average water flow at site R1 during weeks 43-45. There are three variables to control: the speed of turbines R2 ,R3 ,R4 . As discussed, the speed of the turbine at site R1 is entirely controlled by the amount of incoming water. The approach we take belongs to a general class of policy search methods [6]. This technique is based on the ability to simulate policies, and the algorithm will typically output the policy that has achieved the highest reward during the simulation. The policy for each turbine takes the parametric form of a truncated linear combination of features: " ! # k X min max xj ? ?j , M AX SP EEDRi , 0 , i=1 where M AX SP EEDRi is the maximum speed of the turbine at Ri , xj are the features and ?j are the parameters. For each site, the features include the current amount of water in the reservoir, the total amount of water in downstream reservoirs, and a constant. For the policy that uses the predictive 5 model we include one more feature per site: the expected amount of inflow for the following week. Hence, there are 8 and 11 features for the policies without/with predictions respectively (as there are no downstream reservoirs for R2 ). Using this policy representation results in reasonable performance, but a closer look at constraint 2 during simulation reveals that the reservoirs should not be too full; otherwise, there is a high chance of spillage, preventing the ability to set a stable flow during the three consecutive weeks critical for fish spawning. To address this concern, we use a different set of parameters during weeks 41-43, to ensure that the desired state of the reservoirs is reached before the constrained period sets in. Note that the policy search framework allows us to make such an adjustment very easily. Finally, we also use the structure of the policy to comply as much as possible with constraint 2, by setting the speed of the turbine at site R2 during weeks 44-45 to be equal to the previous water flow at site R1 . For the policy that uses the predictive model, we further refine this by subtracting the expected predicted amount of inflow at site R1 . This brings the number of parameters used for the policies to 16 and 22 respectively. As the policies are simply (truncated) linear combinations of features, they are easy to inspect and interpret. Our algorithm is based on a random local search around the current solution, by perturbing different blocks of parameters while keeping others fixed, as in block coordinate descent [14]. Each time a significantly better solution than the current one is found, line search is performed in the direction of improvement. The pseudo-code is shown in Alg. 1. The algorithm itself, like the policy representation, exploits problem structure by also searching the parameters of a single turbine as part of the overall search procedure. Algorithm 1 Policy search algorithm Parameters: N ? maximum number of interations ? = {?R2 , ?R3 , ?R4 } = {?1 , ..., ?m } ? Rm - initial parameter vector n? number of parallel policy evaluations T hreshold? significance threshold ?? sampling variance Output: ? 1: repeat 2: Stage 1: . searching over entire parameter space 3: ? = S EARCH W ITHIN B LOCK(?, all indexes) 4: Stage 2: . searching over parameters of each turbine separately 5: for all reservoirs Rj do 6: ? = S EARCH W ITHIN B LOCK(?, parameter indexes of turbine Rj ) 7: Stage 3: . searching over each parameter separately 8: for j ? 1, m do 9: ? = S EARCH W ITHIN B LOCK(?, index j) 10: until no improvement at any stage 11: 12: procedure S EARCH W ITHIN B LOCK(?, I) . I, I c - an index set and its complement 13: repeat 14: Obtain n samples {?i ? N (0, ?I)}i?{1,...,n} 15: Evaluate policies defined by parameters {{?I c , ?I + ?i }}i?{1,...,n} (in parallel) 16: 17: 18: 19: 20: ? {? c ,? +? } ) > E(R ? ? ) + T hreshold then if E(R i I I ? {? c ,? +?? } ) using a line search Find ?? = arg max? E(R i I I ? ? {?I c , ?I + ?? ?i } until no improvement for N consecutive iterations return ? The estimate of the expected reward of a policy is calculated by running the simulator on a single 2000-year-long trajectory obtained from the generative model described in Sec. 2. Since the algo6 (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) Figure 3: Qualitative comparison between DP and PS with pred solutions evaluated on the historical data. Left - DP, right - PS with pred. Plots (a)-(b) show the amount of water turbined at site R4 ; plots (c)-(d) show the water flow at site R1 ; plots (e)-(f) show the change in the volume of reservoir R2 . Dashed horizontal lines in plots (c)-(f) represent the constraints, dotted vertical lines in plots (c)-(d) mark weeks 43-45. rithm depends on the initialization of the parameter vector, we sample the initial parameter vector uniformly at random and repeat the search 50 times. The best solution is reported. DP PS no pred PS with pred Mean-prod R1 v.% R1 43-45 v.% R1 43-45 v. mean R2 v.% 8,251GW 8,286GW 8,290GW 0% 0% 0% 22% 28% 3.7% 11 2.6 0.5 0% 1.8% 1.8% Table 1: Comparison between solutions found by dynamic programming (DP), policy search without predictive model (PS no pred) and policy search using the predictive model (PS with pred). Mean-prod represents the average annual electricity production; R1 v.% is the percentage of years in which constraint 1 is violated; R2 v.% is the percentage of years in which constraint 3 is violated; R1 43-45 v.% is the percentage of years in which constraint 2 is violated; R1 43-45 v. mean represents the average amount by which constraint 2 is violated. 5 Experimental results We compare the solutions obtained using the proposed policy search with (PS with pred) and without predictive model (PS no pred) to a solution based on dynamic programming (DP), developed by Hydro-Qu?ebec. The state space of DP is defined by: week, water volume at each reservoir, and previous total inflow. All the continuous variables are discretized, and the transition matrix is calculated based on the PAR(1) generative model of the inflow process presented earlier. The discretization was 7 optimized to obtain best results. During the evaluation, the solution provided by DP is adjusted to avoid obviously wrong decisions, like unnecessary water spilling. All solutions are evaluated on the original historical data. The constraints in DP are handled in the same way as in both PS solutions, with penalties for violations taking the same form as shown previously. The only exception is the constraint 2, which requires keeping the flow roughly equal throughout several time steps. Since it is not possible to incorporate this constraint into DP as is, it is handled by enforcing a turbine flow between 265 m3 /s (the minimum required by constraint 1) and 290 m3 /s. Table 1 shows the quantitative comparison between the solutions obtained by three methods. PS solutions are able to produce more power, with the best value improving by nearly half of a percent - a sizeable improvement in the field of energy production. All solutions ensure that constraint 1 is satisfied (column R1 v.%), but constraint 2 is more difficult. Although PS no pred violates this constraint slightly more often then DP (column R1 43-45 v.%), the amount by which the constraint is violated is significantly smaller (column R1 43-45 v. mean). As expected, PS with pred performs much better, because it explicitly incorporates inflow predictions. Finally, although both PS solutions violate constraint 3 during one out of 54 years (see Fig. 3(f)), such occasional violations are acceptable as long as they help satisfy other constraints. Overall, it is clear that PS with pred is a noticeable improvement over DP based on the quantitative comparison alone. Practitioners are also often interested to assess the applicability of the simulated solution by other criteria that are not always captured in the problem formulation. Fig. 3 provides different plots that allow such a comparison between the DP and PS with pred solutions. Plots (a)-(b) show that the solution provided by PS with pred offers a significantly smoother policy compared to the DP solution (see also Fig. A.3 in supplementary material). This smoothness is due to the policy parametrization, while the DP roughness is the result of the discretization of the input/output spaces. Unless there are significant changes in the amount of inflows within consecutive weeks, major fluctuations in turbine speeds are undesirable, and their presence cannot be easily explained to the operator. The only fluctuations in the solution of PS with pred that are not the result of large inflows are cases in which the reservoir is empty (see e.g. rapid drops around 10-th week at plot (b)), or a significant increase in turbine speed around weeks 41-45 due to the change in policy parameters. This also affects the smoothness of the change in the water volume trajectory, which can be observed at plots (e)-(f) for reservoir R2 for example. The period of weeks 43-45 is a reasonable exception due to the change in policy parameters that require turbining at faster speeds to satisfy constraint 2. 6 Discussion We considered the problem of optimizing energy production of a hydroelectric power plant complex under several constraints. The proposed approach is based on a problem-adapted policy search whose features include predictions obtained from a predictive state representation model. The resulting solution is superior to a well-established alternative, both quantitatively and qualitatively. It is important to point out that the proposed approach is not, in fact, specific to this problem or this domain alone. Often, real-world sequential decision problems have several decision variables, a variety of constraints of different priorities, uncertainty, etc. Incorporating all available domain knowledge into the optimization framework is often the key to obtaining acceptable solutions. This is where the policy search approach is very useful, because it is typically easy to incorporate many types of domain knowledge naturally within this framework. First, the policy space can rely on features that are deemed useful for the problem, have an interpretable structure and adhere to the constraints of the problem. Second, policy search can explore the most likely directions of improvement first, as considered by experts. Third, the policy can be evaluated directly based on its performance (regardless of the complexity of the reward function). Forth, it is usually easy to implement the policy search and parallelize parts of the policy search procedure. Finally, the use of PSRs allows us to produce good features for the policy by providing reliable predictions of future system behavior. For future work, the main objective is to evaluate the proposed approach on other realistic complex problems, in particular in domains where solutions obtained from other advanced techniques are not practically relevant. Acknowledgments We thank Gr?egory Emiel and Laura Fagherazzi of Hydro-Qu?ebec for many helpful discussions and for providing access to the simulator and their DP results, and Kamran Nagiyev for porting an initial version of the simulator to Java. This research was supported by the NSERC/Hydro-Qu?ebec Industrial Research Chair on the Stochastic Optimization of Electricity Generation, and by the NSERC Discovery Program. 8 References [1] Salas, J. D. (1980). Applied modeling of hydrologic time series. Water Resources Publication. [2] Carpentier, P. L., Gendreau, M., Bastin, F. (2013). Long-term management of a hydroelectric multireservoir system under uncertainty using the progressive hedging algorithm. Water Resources Research, 49(5), 2812-2827. [3] Rani, D., Moreira, M.M. (2010). Simulation-optimization modeling: a survey and potential application in reservoir systems operation. Water resources management, 24(6), 1107-1138. [4] Labadie, J.W. (2004). Optimal operation of multireservoir systems: State-of-the-art review. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 130(2), 93-111. [5] Ba?nos, R., Manzano-Agugliaro, F., Montoya, F. G., Gil, C., Alcayde, A., G?omez, J. (2011). Optimization methods applied to renewable and sustainable energy: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15(4), 1753-1766. [6] Deisenroth, M.P., Neumann, G., Peters, J. (2013). A Survey on Policy Search for Robotics. Foundations and Trends in Robotics, 21, pp.388-403. 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RAAM: The Benefits of Robustness in Approximating Aggregated MDPs in Reinforcement Learning Dharmashankar Subramanian IBM T. J. Watson Research Center Yorktown Heights, NY 10598 dharmash@us.ibm.com Marek Petrik IBM T. J. Watson Research Center Yorktown Heights, NY 10598 mpetrik@us.ibm.com Abstract We describe how to use robust Markov decision processes for value function approximation with state aggregation. The robustness serves to reduce the sensitivity to the approximation error of sub-optimal policies in comparison to classical methods such as fitted value iteration. This results in reducing the bounds on the ?-discounted infinite horizon performance loss by a factor of 1/(1 ? ?) while preserving polynomial-time computational complexity. Our experimental results show that using the robust representation can significantly improve the solution quality with minimal additional computational cost. 1 Introduction State aggregation is one of the simplest approximate methods for reinforcement learning with very large state spaces; it is a special case of linear value function approximation with binary features. The main advantages of using aggregation in comparison with other value function approximation methods are its simplicity, flexibility, and the ease of interpretability (Bean et al., 1987; Bertsekas and Castanon, 1989; Van Roy, 2005). Informally, value function approximation methods compute an approximately-optimal policy ? ? by computing an approximate value function v? as an intermediate step. The quality of the solution can be measured by its performance loss: ?(? ? ) ? ?(? ? ) where ? ? is the optimal policy, and ?(?) is the ?-discounted infinite-horizon return of the policy, averaged over (any) given initial state distribution. The tight upper bound guarantees on the performance loss? tighter for state-aggregation than for general linear value function approximation?are (Van Roy, 2005), ?(? ? ) ? ?(? ? ) ? 4 ? (v ? )/(1 ? ?)2 (1.1) where (v ? )?defined formally in Section 4?is the smallest approximation error for the optimal value function v ? . It is important that the error is with respect to the optimal value function which can have special structural properties, such as convexity in inventory management problems (Porteus, 2002). Because the bound in (1.1) is tight, the performance loss may grow with the discount factor as fast as ?/(1??)2 while the total return for any policy only grows as 1/(1??). Therefore, for ? sufficiently close to 1, the policy ? ? computed through state aggregation may be no better than a random policy even when the approximation error of the optimal policy is small. This large performance loss is caused by large errors in approximating sub-optimal value functions (Van Roy, 2005). In this paper, we show that it is possible to guarantee much smaller performance loss by using a robust model of the approximation errors through a new algorithm we call RAAM (robust approximation for aggregated MDPs). Informally, we use robustness to reduce the approximated return of policies with large approximation errors to make it less likely that such policies will be selected. 1 The performance loss of the RAAM can be bounded as: ?(? ? ) ? ?(? ? ) ? 2 (v ? )/(1 ? ?) . (1.2) As the main contribution of the paper?described in Section 3?we incorporate the desired robustness into the aggregation model by assuming bounded worst-case state importance weights. The state importance weights determine the relative importance of the approximation errors among the states. RAAM formulates the robust optimization over the importance weights as a robust Markov decision process (RMDP). RMDPs extend MDPs to allow uncertain transition probabilities and rewards and preserve most of the favorable MDP properties (Iyengar, 2005; Nilim and Ghaoui, 2005; Le Tallec, 2007; Wiesemann et al., 2013). RMDPs can be solved in polynomial time and the solution methods are practical (Kaufman and Schaefer, 2013; Hansen et al., 2013). To minimize the overhead of RAAM in comparison with standard aggregation, we describe a new linear-time algorithm for the Bellman update in Section 3.1 for RMDPs with robust sets constrained by the L1 norm. Another contribution of this paper?described in Section 4?is the analysis of RAAM performance loss and the impact of the choice of robust uncertainty sets. We focus on constructing aggregate RMPDs with rectangular uncertainty sets (Iyengar, 2005; Wiesemann et al., 2013) and show that it is possible to use MDP structural properties to reduce RAAM performance loss guarantees compared to (1.2). The experimental results in Section 5 empirically illustrate settings in which RAAM outperforms standard state aggregation methods. In particular, RAAM is more robust to sub-optimal policies with a large approximation error. The results also show that the computational overhead of using the robust formulation is very small. 2 Preliminaries In this section, we briefly overview robust Markov decision processes (RMDPs). RMDPs generalize MDPs to allow for uncertain transition probabilities and rewards. Our definition of RMDPs is inspired by stochastic zero-sum games to generalize previous results to allow for uncertainty in both the rewards and transition probabilities (Filar and Vrieze, 1997; Iyengar, 2005). Formally, an RMDP is a tuple (S, A, B, P, r, ?), where S is a finite set of states, ? ? 4S is the initial distribution, As is a set of actions that can be taken in state s ? S, and Bs is a set of robust outcomes for s ? S that represent the uncertainty in transitions and rewards. From a game-theoretic perspective, Bs can be seen as the actions of the adversary. For any a ? As , b ? Bs , the transition probabilities are Pa,b : S ? 4S and the reward is ra,b : S ? R. The rewards depend only on the starting state and are independent of the target state1 . The basic solution concepts of RMDPs are very similar to regular MDPs with the exception that the solution also includes the policy of the adversary. We consider the set of randomized stationary policies ?R = {?s ? 4As }s?S as candidate solutions and use ?D for deterministic policies. Two main practical models of the uncertainty in Bs have been considered: s-rectangular and s, arectangular sets (Le Tallec, 2007; Wiesemann et al., 2013). In s-rectangular uncertainty models, the realization of the uncertainty depends only on the state and is independent on the action; the corresponding set of nature?s policies is: ?S = {?s ? 4Bs }s?S . In s, a-rectangular models, the realization of the uncertainty can also depend on the action: ?SA = {?s,a ? 4Bs }s?S,a?As . We Q will also consider restricted sets on the adversary?s policies: ?Q S = {?s ? Qs }s?S and ?SA = {?s,a ? Qs }s,a?S?As , for some Qs ? 4Bs . Next, we briefly overview the basic properties of robust MDPs; please refer to (Iyengar, 2005; Nilim and Ghaoui, 2005; Le Tallec, 2007; Wiesemann et al., 2013) for more details. The transitions and rewards for any stationary policies ? and ? are defined as: X X P?,? (s, s0 ) = Pa,b (s, s0 ) ?s,a ?s,b , r?,? (s) = ra,b (s) ?s,a ?s,b . a,b?As ?Bs a,b?As ?Bs 1 Rewards that depend on the target state can be readily reduced to independent ones by taking the appropriate expectation. 2 It will be convenient to use P?,? to denote the transition matrix and r?,? and ? as vectors over states. We will also use I to denote an identity matrix and 1, 0 to denote vectors of ones and zeros respectively with appropriate dimensions. Using this notation, with a s, a-rectangular model, the objective in the RMDP is to maximize the ?-discounted infinite horizon robust return ? as: ?? = sup ?? (?) = sup ???R inf ?(?, ?) = sup ???R ???SA inf ? X ?T (? P?,? )t r?,? . (RBST) ???R ???SA t=0 The negative superscript denotes the fact that this is the robust return. The value function for a policy ? pair ? and ? is denoted by v?,? and the optimal robust value function is v?? . Similarly to regular MDPs, the optimal robust value function must satisfy the robust Bellman optimality equation:   X X v?? (s) = max min ?s,a ?s,a,b ra,b (s) + ? Pa,b (s, s0 ) v?? (s0 ) . (2.1) ???R ???Q SA 3 s0 ?S a,b?As ?Bs RAAM: Robust Approximation for Aggregated MDPs This section describes how RAAM uses transition samples to compute an approximately optimal policy. We also describe a linear-time algorithm for computing value function updates for the robust MDPs constructed by RAAM. Algorithm 1: RAAM: Robust Approximation for Aggregated MDPs // ? - samples, w - weights, ? - aggregation, ? - robustness Input: ?, w, ?, ? Output: ? ? ? approximately optimal policy // Compute RMDP parameters 1 S ? {?(? s) : (? s, s?0 , a ?, r) ? ?} ? {?(? s0 ) : (? s, s?0 , a ?, r?) ? ?} ; // States 2 forall the s ? S do 3 As ? {? a : (? s, s?0 , a ?, r) ? ?, s = ?(? s)} ; // Actions 4 Bs ? {? s : (? s, s?0 , a ?, r) ? ?, s = ?(? s)} ; // Outcomes 5 end // Compute RMDP transition probabilities and rewards 0 6 forall the s, s ? S ? S do 7 forall the a, b ? As ? Bs do 8 ?0 ? {(? s0 , r?) : (? s, s?0 , a ?, r?) ? ?, ?(? s) = s, a = a ?, b = s?} ; P 1 0 9 Pa,b (s, s ) ? |?0 | s?0 ,???0 1s0 =?(?s0 ) ; P 10 ra,b (s) ? ?,?r??0 r?/|?0 | ; 11 end 12 end // Construct robust sets based on state weights and L1 bounds ws B k1 ? ?}; 13 Qs ? {? ? 4 s : k? ? T 1 w|B s 14 15 16 ?Q SA ? {?s,a ? Qs }s,a?S?As ; // Solve RMDP ? Solve (2.1) to get ? ? ?the optimal RMDP policy?and let ? ?s?,a = ??(? s),a ; return ? ?; Algorithm 1 depicts a simplified implementation of RAAM. In general, we use s? to distinguish the un-aggregated MDP states from the states in the aggregated RMDP. The main input to the algorithm consists of transition samples ? = {(? si , s?0i , a ?i , ri )}i?I which represent transitions from a state s?i 0 to the state s?i given reward ri and taking an action ai ; the transitions need to be sampled according to the transition probabilities conditioned on the state and an action. The aggregation function ? : S? ? S, which maps every MDP state from S? to an aggregate RMDP state, is also assumed to be given. Finally, the state weights w ? 4S and the robustness ? are tunable parameters. We use the L1 norm to bound the uncertainty. The representation uses ? to continuously trade off between fixed importance weights for ? = 0 and complete robustness ? = 2. We analyze 3 1 a1 a1 s?1 0 s?2 0 s?1 0 s?2 s1 s?3  s1 s2 1 a2 s?1 Figure 1: An example MDP. 0  0 a2 s2 s?2 Figure 2: Aggregated RMDP. the effect of this parameter in Section 4. However, simply setting w to be uniform and ? = 2 will provide sufficiently strong theoretical guarantees and generally works well in practice. Finally, we assume s, a-rectangular uncertainty sets for the sake of reducing the computational complexity; better approximations could be obtained by using s-rectangular sets, but this makes no difference for deterministic policies. Next, we show an example that demonstrates how the robust MDP is constructed from the aggregation. We will also use this example to show the tightness of our bounds on the performance loss. Example 3.1. The original MDP problem is shown in Fig. 1. The round white nodes represent the states, while the black nodes represent state-action pairs. All transitions are deterministic, with the number next to the transition representing the corresponding reward. Two shaded regions marked with s1 and s2 denote the aggregate states. Fig. 2 depicts the corresponding aggregated robust MDP constructed by RAAM. The rectangular nodes in this picture represent the robust outcome. 3.1 Reducing Computational Complexity Solving an RMDP is in general more difficult than solving a regular MDP. Most RMDP algorithms are based on value or policy iteration, but in general involve repeated solutions of linear or convex programs (Kaufman and Schaefer, 2013). Even though the worst-case time complexity of these algorithms is polynomial, they may be impractical because they require repeatedly solving (2.1) for every state, action, and iteration. Each of these computations may require solving a linear program. The optimization over ?SA when computing the value function update for solving Line 15 of Algorithm 1 requires solving the following linear program for each s and a. min ?s,a ?4Bs s.t. T ?s,a zs = X   X ?s,a,b ra,b (s) + ? Pa,b (s, s0 ) v(s0 ) s0 ?S b?Bs (3.1) k?s,a ? qs k1 ? ? . Here qs = ws /1T w(Bs ). While this problem can be solved directly using a linear program solver, we describe a significantly more efficient method in Algorithm 2. Theorem 3.2. Algorithm 2 correctly solves (3.1) in O(|Bs |) time when the full sort is replaced by a quickselect quantile selection algorithm in Line 4. The proof is technical and is deferred to Appendix B.1. The main idea is to dualize the norm constraint and examine the structure of the optimal solution as a function of the dual variable. 4 Performance Loss Bounds This section describes new bounds on the performance loss which is the difference between the return of the optimal and approximate policy. The performance loss is a more reliable measure of the error than the error in the value function (Van Roy, 2005). We also analyze the effect of the state weights w and the robustness parameter ? on performance loss. It will be convenient, for the purpose of deriving the error bounds, to treat aggregation as a linear value function approximation (Van Roy, 2005). For that purpose, define a matrix ?(? s, s) = 1s=?(?s) 4 Algorithm 2: Solve (3.1) in Line 15 of Algorithm 1 Input: zs , qs ? sorted such that zs is non-decreasing, indexed as 1 . . . n ? Output: ?s,a ? optimal solution of (3.1) 1 o ? copy(qs ) ; i ? n ; ? 2  ? min{1 ? q1 , 2} ; 3 o1 ?  + q 1 ; 4 while  > 0 ; // Determine the threshold 5 do 6 oi ? oi ? min{, oi } ; 7  ?  ? min{, oi } ; 8 i ? i ? 1; 9 end 10 return o ; ? and 1 represents the indicator function. That is, each column corresponds to where s ? S, s? ? S, a single aggregate state with each row entry being either 1 or 0 depending on whether the original state belongs into the aggregate state. In order to simplify the derivation of the bounds, we start by assuming that the RMDP in RAAM is constructed from the full sample of the original MDP; we discuss finite-sample bounds later. ? A, ? P? , r?, ? Therefore, assume that the full regular MDP is M = (S, ? ); we are using bars in general ? to denote MDP values, but assume that A = A. We also use ?? to denote the return of a policy in the MDP. The robust outcomes correspond to the original states that compose any s: Bs = ??1 (s). The RMDP transitions and rewards for some ? and ? are computed as:   r?,? = ?T diag ?? r?? ?T = ? ? T ?. (4.1) P?,? = ?T diag ?? P?? ? P Here, ??s? = a?As? ?s,a ?s,a,?s such that ?(? s) = s are state weights induced by ?. There are two types of optimal policies: ? ? ? and ? ? ; ? ? ? is the truly optimal policy, while ? ? is the optimal policy given aggregation constraints requiring the same action for all aggregated states. For any computed policy ? ? , we focus primarily ??(? ? )? ??(? ? ). The total loss can  on?the performance   loss ? ? ? be easily decomposed as ??(? ? )? ??(? ? ) = ??(? ? )? ??(? ) + ??(? )? ??(? ? ) . The error ?(? ? ? )? ??(? ? ) is independent of how the value of the aggregation is computed. The following theorem states the main result of the paper. A part of the results uses the concentration coefficient C for a given distribution ? of the MDP (Munos, 2005) which are defined as: P?a (s, s0 ) ? ? a ? A. ? C?(s0 ) for all s, s0 ? S, Theorem 4.1. Let ? ? be the solution of Algorithm 1 based on the full sample for ? = 2. Then: ??(? ? ) ? ??(? ?) ? 2 (v ? ) , 1?? where (v ? ) = minv?RS kv ? ? ?vk? and this bound is tight. In addition, when the concentration coefficient of the original MDP is C with distribution ?, then (v ? ) = minv?RS ke(v)k1,? where ? = ?T (? ? + (1 ? ?) ?) and e(v)s = maxs????1 (s) |(I ? ? P??? )(? v ? ? ? v)|s?. Before proving Theorem 4.1, it is instrumental to compare it with the performance loss of related reinforcement learning algorithms. When the aggregation is constructed using constant and uniform aggregation weights (as when Algorithm 1 is used with ? = 0), the performance loss of the computed policy ? ? is bounded as (Tsitsiklis and Van Roy, 1996; Gordon, 1995): ??(? ? ) ? ??(? ?) ? 4 ? (v ? ) . (1 ? ?)2 This bound holds specifically for aggregation (and approximators that are averagers) and is tight; the performance loss for more general algorithms can be even larger. Note that the difference in the 1/(1 ? ?) factor is very significant when ? ? 1. Van Roy (2005) shows similar bounds as RAAM, but they are weaker and require the invariant distribution ?. In addition, similar performance loss bounds as Theorem 4.1 can be guaranteed by DRADP, but this approach results in general to NPhard computational problems (Petrik, 2012). In fact, the robust aggregation can be seen as a special case of DRADP with rectangular uncertainty sets (Iyengar, 2005). 5 To prove Theorem 4.1 we need the following result showing that for properly chosen robust uncertainty sets, the robust return is a lower bound on the true return. We will use d?? to represent the normalized occupancy frequency for the MDP M and policy ?. Q ? Lemma 4.2. Assume the uncertainty set to be ?Q S or ?SA as constructed in (4.1). Then ? (?) ? ? ??(?) as long as for each ? ? ? we have that d? |Bs ? ?s ? Qs for each s ? S and some ?s . When ? = 2, the inequality in the theorem also holds for value functions as Proposition B.1 in the appendix shows. Proof. We prove the result for s-rectangular uncertainty sets; the proof for s, a-rectangular sets is analogous. When the policy ? is fixed, solving for the nature?s policy represents a minimization MDP with continuous action constraints that has the following dual linear program formulation (Marecki et al., 2013): ?? (?) = min d?{RBs }s?S dT r?? / (1 ? ?) ?T (I ? ? P??T ) d = (1 ? ?) ?T ? ? X ds,b / ds,b0 ? Qs , ?s ? S, ?b ? Bs . s.t. (4.2) b0 ?Bs Note that the left-hand side of the last constraint corresponds to ?a,b . Now, setting d = d?? shows the desired inequality for ?; this value is feasible inP (4.2) from (B.3) and the objective value is correct from (B.4). The normalization constant is ?s = b0 ?Bs ds,b0 . Proof of Theorem 4.1. Using Lemma 4.2, the performance loss for ? = 2 can be bounded as: 0 ? ??(? ? ) ? ??(? ? ) ? ??(? ? ) ? ?? (? ? ) = min(? ?(? ? ) ? ??? (?)) ? ??(? ? ) ? ?? (? ? ) ??? ? For a policy ?, solving ? (?) corresponds to an MDP with the following LP formulation: ??(? ? ) ? ?? (? ? ) ? min {?T (v ? ? ?v) : ?v ? ? P??? ?v + r?? } . v (4.3) 1+? Now, let the minimum  = minv kv ? ??vk? be attained at v0 . Then, to show that v1 = v0 ? 1?? 1 is feasible in (4.3), for any k: ? 1 ? v ? ? ?v0 ?  1 (k ? 1) 1 ? v ? ? ?v0 + k 1 ? (1 + k) 1 (k ? 1)? 1 ? ? P??? (v ? ? ?v0 + k 1) ? (1 + k)? 1 (4.4) (4.5) The derivation above uses the monotonicity of P??? in (4.5). Then, after multiplying by (I ? ? P??? ), which is monotone, and rearranging the terms: (I ? ? P??? )?(v0 ? k 1) ? (1 + ? ? (1 ? ?)k) 1 + r?? , where (I ? ? P??? )v ? = r?? . Letting k = (1 + ?)/(1 ? ?) proves the needed feasibility and (4.4) establishes the bound. The tightness of the bound follows from Example 3.1 with  ? 0. The bound on the second inequality follows from bounding the dual gap between the primal feasible solution v1 and an upper bound on a dual optimal solution. To upper-bound the dual solution, define a concentration coefficient for an RMDP similarly to an MDP: P?a,b (s, s0 ) ? C?(s0 ) for all s, s0 ? S, a ? As , b ? Bs . By algebraic manipulation, if the original MDP has a concentration coefficient C with a distribution ? then the aggregated RMDP has the same concentration coefficient with a distribution ?T ?. Then, using Lemma 4.3 in (Petrik, 2012), the occupancy frequency (and therefore C the dual value) of the RMDP for any policy is bounded as u ? 1?? ?((1 ? ?) ?T ? + ??T ?). The linear program (4.3) can be formulated as the following penalized optimization problem:   max min ?T (v ? ? ?v) + uT (I ? ? P??? )?v ? r?? + , u v Note that: ?T (v ? ? ?v) = ?T I ? ? P??? ?1 ? ? (I ? ? P??? )(v ? ? ?v) = d?T ? ? (I ? ? P? ? )(v ? ?v) . 6 The penalized optimization problem can be rewritten, using the fact that r?? = (I ? ? P??? ) v ? and the feasibility of v1 as: max u s.t. 2 uT |(I ? ? P??? )(? v1 ? v ? )| 1?? C u? ? ((1 ? ?) ?T ? + ? ?T ?) 1?? The theorem then follows by simple algebraic manipulation from the upper bound on u. 4.1 State Importance Weights In this section, we discuss how to select the state importance weights w and the robustness parameter ?. Note that Lemma 4.2 shows that any choice of w and ? such that the normalized occupancy frequency is within ? of w in terms of the L1 norm, provides the theoretical guarantees of Theorem 4.1. Smaller uncertainty sets under this condition only improve the guarantees. In practice, the values w and ? can be treated as regularization parameters. We show sufficient conditions under which the right choice of w and ? can significantly reduce the performance loss, but these conditions have a more explanatory than predictive character. As it can be seen easily from the proof of Lemma 4.2 and Appendix B.2, the optimal choice for the RAAM weights w to approximate the return of a policy ? is to use its state occupancy frequency. While the occupancy frequency is rarely known, there exist structural properties, such as the concentration coefficient (Munos, 2005), that can lead to upper bounds on the possible occupancy frequencies. However, the following example shows that simply using an upper bound on the occupancy frequency is not sufficient to reduce the performance loss. Example 4.3. Consider an MDP with 4 states: s1 , . . . , s4 and the aggregation with two states that correspond to {s1 , s2 } and {s3 , s4 }. Let the set of admissible occupancy frequencies be: Q = {d ? 44 : 1/4 ? d(s1 ) + d(s4 ) ? 1/2, d ? 1/8}. The set of uncertainties for this bounded set is 4 for i = 1, 3, and j = 2, 4 as follows: ?Q S = {d ? R+ : 1/6 ? d(si ) ? 4/5, 1/5 ? d(sj ) ? 5/6, d(si ) + d(sj ) = 1}, which is smaller than ?S . However, Q without the constraint d ? 1/8 results in ?Q S = ?S . As Example 4.3 demonstrates, the concentration coefficient alone does not guarantee an improvement in the policy loss. One possible additional structural assumption is that the occupancy frequencies for the individual states in each aggregate state to be ?correlated? across policies. More formally, the aggregation correlation coefficient D ? R+ must satisfy: ? ?(? s) ? d? (? s) ? ? D ?(? s) , (4.6) ? and ? as defined in Theorem 4.1. Using this assumption, we can derive for some ? ? 0, each s? ? S, the following theorem. Consider the uncertainty set Qs = {q : q ? C (?|Bs )/(1T ?(Bs ))} then we can show the following theorem. Theorem 4.4. Given an MDP with a concentration coefficient C for ? and a correlation coefficient T D, then for uncertainty set ?Q S and for ? = ? (? ? + (1 ? ?) ?) we have: ??(? ? ) ? ??(? ?) ? 2C D min k(I ? ? P??? ) (? v ? ? ? v)k1,? . 1 ? ? v?RS The proof is based on a minor modification of Theorem 4.1 and is deferred until the appendix. Theorem 4.4 improves on Theorem 4.1 by entirely replacing the L? norm by a weighted L1 norm. While the correlation coefficient may not be easy to determine in practice, it may a property to analyze to explain a failure of the method. Finite-sample bounds are beyond the scope of this paper. However, the sampling error is additive and can be based for example on  coverage assumptions made for approximate linear programs. In particular, (4.2) represents an approximate linear program and can be bounded as such, as for example done by Petrik et al. (2010). 5 Experimental Results In this section, we experimentally validate the approximation properties of RAAM with respect to the quality of the solutions and the computational time required. For the purpose of the empirical 7 40 Robust Aggregation, jj ?jj1 ?1:5 10?1 Approximate Linear Programming 0 Time (s) Mean Return 20 100 Mean Aggregation/LSPI Robust Aggregation, jj ?jj1 ?0:5 ?20 ?40 ?60 0.0 CPLEX Total CPLEX Solver Custom Python Custom C++ 10?2 10?3 10?4 0.5 1.0 Extra Reward rq 1.5 10?5 1 10 2.0 102 103 104 Variables Figure 3: Sensitivity to the reward perturbation for regular aggregation and RAAM. Figure 4: Time to compute (3.1) for Algorithm 2 versus a CPLEX LP solver. evaluation we use a modified inverted pendulum problem with a discount factor of 0.99, as described for example in (Lagoudakis and Parr, 2003). For the aggregation, we use a uniform grid of dimension 40 ? 40 and uniform sampling of dimensions 120 ? 120. The ordinary setting is solved easily and reliably by both the standard aggregation and RAAM. To study the robustness with respect to the approximation error of suboptimal policies we add an additional reward ra for the pendulum under a tilted angle (?/2 ? 0.12 ? ? ? ?/2 and ?? ? 0 where ? is the angle and ?? is the action). This reward can be only achieved by a suboptimal policy. Fig. 3 shows the return of the approximate policy as the function of the magnitude of the additional reward for the standard aggregation and RAAM with various values on ?. We omit the confidence ranges, which are small, to enhance image clarity. Note that we assume that once the pendulum goes over ?/2, the reward -1 is accrued until the end of the horizon. This result clearly demonstrates the greater stability and robustness of RAAM for than standard aggregation. The results also illustrate the lack of stability of ALP, which is can be seen as an optimistic version of RAAM. We observed the same behavior for other parameter choices. The main cost of using RAAM compared to ordinary aggregation is the increased computational complexity. Our results show, however, that the computational overhead of RAAM is minimal. Section 5 shows that Algorithm 2 is several orders of magnitude faster than CPLEX 12.3. The value function update for the aggregated inverted pendulum with 1600 states, 3 actions, and about 9 robust outcomes takes 8.7ms for ordinary aggregation, 8.8ms for RAAM with ? = 2, and 9.7ms for RAAM with ? = 1. The guarantees on the improvement for one iteration are the same for both algorithms and all implementations are in C++. 6 Conclusion RAAM is novel approach to state aggregation which leverages RMDPs. RAAM significantly reduces performance loss guarantees in comparison with standard aggregation while introducing negligible computational overhead. The robust approach has some distinct advantages in comparison with previous methods with improved performance loss guarantees. Our experimental results are encouraging and show that adding robustness can significantly improve the solution quality. Clearly, not all problems will benefit from this approach. However, given the small computational overhead and there is no reason to not try. While we do provide some theoretical justification for choosing w and ?, it is most likely that in practice these can be best treated as regularization parameters. Many improvements on the basic RAAM algorithm are possible. Most notably, the RMDP action set could be based on ?meta-actions? or ?options?. The L1 may be replaced by other polynomial norms or KL divergence. RAAM could be also extended to choose adaptively the most appropriate aggregation for the given samples (Bernstein and Shikim, 2008). Finally, using s-rectangular uncertainty sets may lead to better results. Acknowledgments We thank Ban Kawas for extensive discussions on this topic and the anonymous reviewers for their comments that helped to significantly improve the paper. 8 References Bean, J. J. C., Birge, J. R. J., and Smith, R. R. L. (1987). Aggregation in dynamic programming. Operations Research, 35(2), 215?220. Bernstein, A. and Shikim, N. (2008). Adaptive aggregation for reinforcement learning with efficient exploration: Deterministic domains. In Conference on Learning Theory (COLT). Bertsekas, D. P. D. and Castanon, D. A. (1989). Adaptive aggregation methods for infinite horizon dynamic programming. IEEE Transations on Automatic Control, 34, 589?598. de Farias, D. P. and Van Roy, B. (2003). The linear programming approach to approximate dynamic programming. Operations Research, 51(6), 850?865. Desai, V. V., Farias, V. F., and Moallemi, C. C. (2012). Approximate dynamic programming via a smoothed linear program. Operations Research, 60(3), 655?674. Filar, J. and Vrieze, K. (1997). Competitive Markov Decision Processes. Springer. Gordon, G. J. (1995). Stable function approximation in dynamic programming. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 261?268. Carnegie Mellon University. Hansen, T., Miltersen, P., and Zwick, U. (2013). Strategy iteration is strongly polynomial for 2player turn-based stochastic games with a constant discount factor. Journal of the ACM (JACM), 60(1), 1?16. Iyengar, G. N. (2005). Robust dynamic programming. Mathematics of Operations Research, 30(2), 257?280. Kaufman, D. L. and Schaefer, A. J. (2013). Robust modified policy iteration. INFORMS Journal on Computing, 25(3), 396?410. Lagoudakis, M. G. and Parr, R. (2003). Least-squares policy iteration. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4, 1107?1149. Le Tallec, Y. (2007). Robust, Risk-Sensitive, and Data-driven Control of Markov Decision Processes. Ph.D. thesis, MIT. Mannor, S., Mebel, O., and Xu, H. (2012). Lightning does not strike twice: Robust MDPs with coupled uncertainty. In International Conference on Machine Learning. Marecki, J., Petrik, M., and Subramanian, D. (2013). Solution methods for constrained Markov decision process with continuous probability modulation. In Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI). Munos, R. (2005). Performance bounds in Lp norm for approximate value iteration. In National Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI). Nilim, A. and Ghaoui, L. E. (2005). Robust control of Markov decision processes with uncertain transition matrices. Operations Research, 53(5), 780?798. Petrik, M. (2012). Approximate dynamic programming by minimizing distributionally robust bounds. In International Conference of Machine Learning. Petrik, M. and Zilberstein, S. (2009). Constraint relaxation in approximate linear programs. In International Conference on Machine Learning, New York, New York, USA. ACM Press. Petrik, M., Taylor, G., Parr, R., and Zilberstein, S. (2010). Feature selection using regularization in approximate linear programs for Markov decision processes. In International Conference on Machine Learning. Porteus, E. L. (2002). Foundations of Stochastic Inventory Theory. Stanford Business Books. Puterman, M. L. (2005). Markov decision processes: Discrete stochastic dynamic programming. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Tsitsiklis, J. N. and Van Roy, B. (1996). An analysis of temporal-difference learning with function approximation. Van Roy, B. (2005). Performance loss bounds for approximate value iteration with state aggregation. Mathematics of Operations Research, 31(2), 234?244. Wiesemann, W., Kuhn, D., and Rustem, B. (2013). Robust Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Operations Research, 38(1), 153?183. 9
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Reducing the Rank of Relational Factorization Models by Including Observable Patterns Maximilian Nickel1,2 Xueyan Jiang3,4 Volker Tresp3,4 Poggio Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA 2 Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia, Genova, Italy 3 Ludwig Maximilian University, Munich, Germany 4 Siemens AG, Corporate Technology, Munich, Germany mnick@mit.edu, {xueyan.jiang.ext,volker.tresp}@siemens.com 1 LCSL, Abstract Tensor factorization has become a popular method for learning from multirelational data. In this context, the rank of the factorization is an important parameter that determines runtime as well as generalization ability. To identify conditions under which factorization is an efficient approach for learning from relational data, we derive upper and lower bounds on the rank required to recover adjacency tensors. Based on our findings, we propose a novel additive tensor factorization model to learn from latent and observable patterns on multi-relational data and present a scalable algorithm for computing the factorization. We show experimentally both that the proposed additive model does improve the predictive performance over pure latent variable methods and that it also reduces the required rank ? and therefore runtime and memory complexity ? significantly. 1 Introduction Relational and graph-structured data has become ubiquitous in many fields of application such as social network analysis, bioinformatics, and artificial intelligence. Moreover, relational data is generated in unprecedented amounts in projects like the Semantic Web, YAGO [27], NELL [4], and Google?s Knowledge Graph [5] such that learning from relational data, and in particular learning from large-scale relational data, has become an important subfield of machine learning. Existing approaches to relational learning can approximately be divided into two groups: First, methods that explain relationships via observable variables, i.e. via the observed relationships and attributes of entities, and second, methods that explain relationships via a set of latent variables. The objective of latent variable models is to infer the states of these hidden variables which, once known, permit the prediction of unknown relationships. Methods for learning from observable variables cover a wide range of approaches, e.g. inductive logic programming methods such as FOIL [23], statistical relational learning methods such as Probabilistic Relational Models [6] and Markov Logic Networks [24], and link prediction heuristics based on the Jaccard?s Coefficient and the Katz Centrality [16]. Important examples of latent variable models for relational data include the IHRM and the IRM [29, 10], the Mixed Membership Stochastic Blockmodel [1] and low-rank matrix factorizations [16, 26, 7]. More recently, tensor factorization, a generalization of matrix factorization to higher-order data, has shown state-of-the-art results for relationship prediction on multi-relational data [21, 8, 2, 13]. The number of latent variables in tensor factorization is determined via the number of latent components used in the factorization, which in turn is bounded by the factorization rank. While tensor and matrix factorization algorithms scale typically well with the size of the data ? which is one reason for their appeal ? they often do not scale well with respect to the rank of the factorization. For instance, RESCAL is a state-of-the art relational learning method based on tensor factorization which can be applied to large knowledge bases consisting of millions of entities and billions of known facts [22]. 1 However, while the runtime of the most scalable known algorithm to compute RESCAL scales linearly with the number of entities, linearly with the number of relations, and linearly with the number of known facts, it scales cubical with regard to the rank of the factorization [22].1 Moreover, the memory requirements of tensor factorizations like RESCAL become quickly infeasible on large data sets if the factorization rank is large and no additional sparsity of the factors is enforced. Hence, tensor (and matrix) rank is a central parameter of factorization methods that determines generalization ability as well as scalability. In this paper we study therefore how the rank of factorization methods can be reduced while maintaining their predictive performance and scalability. We first analyze under which conditions tensor and matrix factorization requires high or low rank on relational data. Based on our findings, we then propose an additive tensor decomposition approach to reduce the required rank of the factorization by combining latent and observable variable approaches. This paper is organized as follows: In section 2 we develop the main theoretical results of this paper, where we show that the rank of an adjacency tensor is lower bounded by the maximum number of strongly connected components of a single relation and upper bounded by the sum of diclique partition numbers of all relations. Based on our theoretical results, we propose in section 3 a novel tensor decomposition approach for multi-relational data and present a scalable algorithm to compute the decomposition. In section 4 we evaluate our model on various multi-relational datasets. Preliminaries We will model relational data as a directed graph (digraph), i.e. as an ordered pair ? ? pV, Eq of a nonempty set of vertices V and a set of directed edges E ? V ? V. An existing edge between node vi and v j will be denoted by vi v j . By a slight abuse of notation, ?pY q will indicate the digraph ? associated with an adjacency matrix Y P t0, 1u N ? N . Next, we will briefly review further concepts of tensor and graph theory that are important for the course of this paper. Definition 1. A strongly connected component of a digraph ? is a maximal subgraph ? for which every vertex is reachable from any other vertex in ? by following the directional edges in the subgraph. A strongly connected component is trivial if it consists only of a single element, i.e. if it is of the form ? ? ptvi u, Hq, and nontrivial otherwise. We will denote the number of strongly connected components in a digraph ? by sccp?q. The number of nontrivially connected components will be denoted by scc` p?q. Definition 2. A digraph ? ? pV, Eq is a diclique if it is an orientation of a complete undirected bipartite graph with bipartition pV1 , V2 q such that v1 P V1 and v2 P V2 for every edge v1 v2 P E. Figure 3 in supplementary material A shows an example of a diclique. Please note that dicliques consist only of trivially strongly connected components, as there cannot exist any cycles in a diclique. Given the concept of a diclique, the diclique partitioning number of a digraph is defined as: Definition 3. The diclique partition number dpp?q of a digraph ? ? pV, Eq is the minimum number of dicliques such that each edge e P E is contained in exactly one diclique. Tensors can be regarded as higher-order generalizations of vectors and matrices. In the following, we will only consider third-order tensors of the form X P R I ?J ? K , although many concepts generalize to higher-order tensors. The mode-n unfolding (or matricization) of X arranges the mode-n fibers of X as the columns of a newly formed matrix and will be denoted by Xpn q . The tensor-matrix product A ? X ?n B multiplies the tensor X with the matrix B along the n-th mode of X such that Apk q ? BXpk q . For a detailed introduction to tensors and these operations we refer the reader to Kolda et al. [12]. The k-th frontal slice of a third-order tensor X P R I ?J ? K will be denoted by X k P R I ?J . The outer product of vectors will be denoted by a ? b. In contrast to matrices, there exist two non-equivalent notions of the rank of a tensor: J ? K be a third-order tensor. The tensor rank t-rankpXq of X is defined as Definition 4. Let X P R I ?? K t-rankpXq ? min tr | X ? ri?1 ai ? bi ? ci u where ai P R I , bi P RJ , and ` ci ?P R . The multilinear rank n-rankpXq of X is defined as the tuple pr 1 ,r 2 ,r 3 q, where r i ? rank Xpi q . To model multi-relational data as tensors, we use the following concept of an adjacency tensor: Definition 5. Let G ? tpV, E k qukK?1 be a set of digraphs over the same set of vertices V, where |V| ? N. The adjacency tensor of G is a third-order tensor X P t0, 1u N ? N ? K with entries x i j k ? 1 if vi v j P E k and x i j k ? 0 otherwise. 1 Similar results can be obtained for state-of-the-art algorithms to compute the well-known CP and Tucker decompositions. Please see the supplementary material A.3 for the respective derivations. 2 For a single digraph, an adjacency tensor is equivalent to the digraph?s adjacency matrix. Note that K would correspond to the number of relation types in a domain. 2 On the Algebraic Complexity of Graph-Structured Data In this section, we want to identify conditions under which tensor factorization can be considered efficient for relational learning. Let X denote an observed adjacency tensor with missing or noisy entries from which we seek to recover the true adjacency tensor Y. Rank affects both the predictive as well as the runtime performance of a factorization: A high factorization rank will lead to poor runtime performance while a low factorization rank might not be sufficient to model Y. We are therefore interested in identifying upper and lower bounds on the minimal rank ? either tensor rank or multilinear rank ? that is required such that a factorization can model the true adjacency tensor Y. Please note that we are not concerned with bounds on the generalization error or the sample complexity that is needed to learn a good model, but on bounds on the algebraic complexity that is needed to express the true underlying data via factorizations. For sign-matrices Y P t?1u N ? N , this question has been discussed in combinatorics and communication complexity via their sign-rank rank? pY q, which is the minimal rank needed to recover the sign-pattern of Y : ? ( rank? pY q ? min rankpMq ? @i, j : sgnpmi j q ? yi j . (1) M PR N ? N Although the concept of sign-rank can be extended to adjacency tensors, bounds based on the signrank would have only limited significance for our purpose, as no practical algorithms exist to find the solution to equation (1). Instead, we provide upper and lower bounds on tensor and multilinear rank, i.e. bounds on the exact recovery of Y, for the following reasons: It follows immediately from (1) that any upper-bound on rankpYq will also hold for rank? pYq since it has to hold that rank? pYq ? rankpYq. Upper bounds on rankpYq can therefore provide insight under what conditions factorizations can be efficient on relational data ? regardless whether we seek to recover exact values or sign patterns. Lower bounds on rankpYq provide insight under what conditions the exact recovery of Y can be inefficient. Furthermore, it can be observed empirically that lower bounds on the rank are more informative for existing factorization approaches to relational learning like [21, 13, 16] than bounds on sign-rank. For instance, let Sn ? 2In ? Jn be the ?signed identity matrix? of size n, where In denotes the n ? n identity matrix and Jn denotes the n ? n matrix of all ones. While it is known that rank? pSn q ? Op1q for any size n [17], it can be checked empirically that SVD requires a rank larger than n2 , i.e. a rank of Opnq, to recover the sign pattern of Sn . Based on these considerations, we state now the main theorem of this paper, which bounds the different notions of the rank of an adjacency tensor by the diclique partition number and the number of strongly connected components of the involved relations: Theorem 1. Tensor rank t-rankpYq and multilinear rank n-rankpYq ? pr 1 ,r 2 ,r 3 q of any adjacency tensor Y P t0, 1u N ? N ? K representing K relations t?k pYk qukK?1 are bounded as ?K dpp?k q ? ? ? max scc` p?k q, k ?1 k where ? is any of the quantities t-rankpYq, r 1 , or r 2 . To prove theorem 1 we will first derive upper and lower bounds on adjacency matrices and then show how these bounds generalize to adjacency tensors. Lemma 1. For any adjacency matrix Y P t0, 1u N ? N it holds that dpp?q ? rankpY q ? scc` p?q. Proof. The upper bound of lemma 1 follows directly from the fact that dpp?pY qq ? rankN pY q and the fact that rankN pY q ? rankpY q, where rankN pY q denotes the non-negative integer rank of the binary matrix Y [19, see eq. 1.6.5 and eq. 1.7.1].  Next we will prove the lower bound of lemma 1. Let ? i pY q denote the i-th (complex) eigenvalue of Y and let ?pY q denote the spectrum of Y P R N ? N , i.e. the multiset of (complex) eigenvalues of Y . Furthermore, let ?pY q ? maxi |? i pY q| be the spectral radius of Y . Now, recall the celebrated Perron-Frobenius theorem: Theorem 2 ([25, Theorem 8.2]). Let Y P R N ? N with yi j ? 0 be a non-negative irreducible matrix. Then ?pY q ? 0 is a simple eigenvalue of Y associated with a positive eigenvector. 3 Please note that a nontrivial digraph is strongly connected iff its adjacency matrix is irreducible [3, Theorem 3.2.1]. Furthermore, an adjacency matrix is nilpotent iff the associated digraph is acyclic [3, Section 9.8]. Hence, the adjacency matrix of a strongly connected component ? is nilpotent iff ? is trivial. Given these considerations, we can now prove the lower bound of lemma 1: Lemma 2. For any non-negative adjacency matrix Y P R N ? N with yi j ? 0 of a weighted digraph ? it holds that rankpY q ? scc` p?q. Proof. Let ? consist of k nontrivial strongly connected components. The Frobenius normal form B of its associated adjacency matrix Y consists then of k irreducible matrices Bi on its block diagonal. It follows from theorem 2 that each irreducible Bi has at least one nonzero eigenvalue. Since B is ? block upper triangular, it holds also that ?pBq ? ki?1 ?pBi q. As the rank of a square matrix is larger or equal to the number of its nonzero eigenvalues, it follows that rankpBq ? k. Lemma 2 follows from the fact that B is similar to Y and that matrix similarity preserves rank.  So far, we have shown that rankpY q of an adjacency matrix Y is bounded by the diclique covering number and the number of nontrivial strongly connected components of the associated digraph. To complete the proof of theorem 1 we will now show that these bounds for unirelational data translate directly to multi-relational data and to the different notions of the rank of an adjacency tensor. In particular we will show that both notions of tensor rank are lower bounded by the maximum rank of a single frontal slice in the tensor and upper bounded by the sum of the ranks of all frontal slices: Lemma 3. The tensor rank t-rankpYq and multilinear rank n-rankpYq ? pr 1 ,r 2 ,r 3 q of any third-order tensor Y P R I ?J ? K with frontal slices Yk are bounded as ?K rankpYk q ? ? ? max rankpYk q, k ?1 k where ? is any of the quantities t-rankpYq, r 1 , or r 2 . Proof. Due to space constraints, we will include only the proof for tensor rank. The proof for multilinear rank can be found in supplementary material A.1. ? Let t-rankpYq ? r and rankpYk q ? r max . It can be seen from the definition of tensor rank that Yk ? ri?1 ck r par bJ r q. Consequently, it follows from the subadditivity of matrix rank, i.e. rankpA ` Bq ? rankpAq ` rankpBq, that `? r ? ?r ` ? J J r max ? rank i ?1 ck r ar br ? i ?1 rank ck r ar br ? r ` ? where the last inequality follows from rank ck r ar bJ r ? 1. Now ? we will derive the upper bound of lemma 3 by providing a decomposition of Y with rank r ? k rankpYk q that recovers Y exactly. Let Yk ? Uk Sk VkJ be the SVD of Yk with Sk ? diagpsk q. Furthermore, let U ? rU1 U2 ? ? ? UK s, V ? rV1 V2 ? ? ? VK s, and let S be a block-diagonal matrix where?the i-th block on the diagonal is r equal to sJ i and all other entries are ? 0. It can be easily verified that i ?1 u? i ? v? i ? s? i provides an exact decomposition of Y, where r ? k rankpYk q and u? i , v? i , and s? i are the i-th columns of the matrices U, V , and S. The inequality in lemma 3 follows since r is not necessarily minimal.  Theorem 1 can now be derived by combining lemmas 1 and 3 what concludes the proof. Discussion It can be seen from theorem 1 that factorizations can be computationally efficient when ? k dpp?k q is small. However, factorizations can potentially be inefficient when scc` p?k q is large for any ?k in the data. For instance, consider an idealized marriedTo relation, where each person is married to exactly one person. Evidently, for m marriages, the associated digraph would consist of m strongly connected components, i.e. one component for each marriage. According to lemma 2, a factorization model would at least require m latent components to recover this adjacency matrix exactly. Consequently, an algorithm with cubic runtime complexity in the rank would only be able to recover Y for this relation when the number of marriages is small, what limits its applicability to these relations. A second important observation for multi-relational learning is that the lower bound in theorem 1 depends only on the largest rank of a single frontal slice (i.e. a single adjacency matrix) in Y. For multi-relational learning this means that regularities between different relations can not decrease tensor or multilinear rank below the largest matrix rank of a single relation. For instance, consider an N ? N ? 2 tensor Y where Y1 ? Y2 . Clearly it holds that rankpYp3q q ? 1, such that Y1 could easily be predicted from Y2 when Y2 is known. However, theorem 1 states that the rank of the factorization must be at least rankpY1 q ? which can be arbitrarily large up to N ? when 4 the first two modes of Y are also factorized. Please note that this is not a statement about sample complexity or generalization error which can be reduced when factorizing all modes of a tensor, but a statement about the minimal rank that is required to express the data. A last observation from the previous discussion is that factorizations and observable variable methods excel at different aspects of relationship prediction. For instance, predicting relationships in the idealized marriedTo relation can be done easily with Horn clauses and link predication heuristics as listed in supplementary material A.2. In contrast, factorization methods would be inefficient in predicting links in this relation as they would require at least one latent component for each marriage. At the same time, links in a diclique of any size can trivially be modeled with a rank-2 factorization that indicates the partition memberships, while standard neighborhood-based methods will fail on dicliques since ? by the definition of a diclique ? there do not exist links within one partition yet the only vertices that share neighbors are located in the same partition. 3 An Additive Relational Effects Model RESCAL is a state-of-the-art relational learning method that is based on a constrained Tuckerdecomposition and as such is subject to bounds as in theorem 1. Motivated by the results of section 2, we propose an additive tensor decomposition approach to combine the strengths of latent and observable variable methods to reduce the rank requirements of RESCAL on multi-relational data. To include the information of observable pattern methods in the factorization, we augment the RESCAL model with an additive term that holds the predictions of observable pattern methods. In particular, let X P t0, 1u N ? N ? K be a third-order adjacency tensor and M P R N ? N ? P be a third-order tensor that holds the predictions of an arbitrary number of relational learning methods. The proposed additive relational effects model (ARE) decomposes X into X ? R ?1 A ?2 A ` M ?3 W, (2) where A P R N ?r , R P Rr ?r ? K and W P R K ? P . The first term of equation (2) corresponds to the RESCAL model which can be interpreted as following: The matrix A holds the latent variable representations of the entities, while each frontal slice Rk of R is an asymmetric r ? r matrix that models the interactions of the latent components for the k-th relation. The variable r denotes the number of latent components of the factorization. An important aspect of RESCAL for relational learning is that entities have a unique latent representation via the matrix A. This enables a relational learning effect via the propagation of information over different relations and the occurrences of entities as a subject or objects in relationships. For a detailed description of RESCAL we refer the reader to Nickel et al. [21, 22]. After computing the factorization (2), the score for the existence of a ? single relationship is calculated in ARE via xpi j k ? aTi Rk a j ` Pp?1 wk p mi j p . The construction of the tensor M is of the following: Let F ? t f p u Pp?1 be a set of given real-valued functions f p : V ? V ? R which assign scores to each pair of entities in V. Examples of such score functions include link prediction heuristics such as Common Neighbors, Katz Centrality, or Horn clauses. Depending on the underlying model these scores can be interpreted as confidences value or as probabilities that a relationship exists between two entities. We collect these real-valued predictions of P score functions in the tensor M P R N ? N ? P by setting mi j p ? f p pvi , v j q. Supplementary material A.2 provides a detailed description of the construction of M for typical score functions. The tensor M acts in the factorization as an independent source of information that predicts the existence of relationships. The term M ?3 W can be interpreted as learning a set of weights wk p which indicate how much the p-th score function in M correlates with the k-th relation in X. For this reason we refer to M also as the oracle tensor. If M is composed of relation path features as proposed by Lao et al. [15], the term MW is closely related to the Path Ranking Algorithm (PRA) [15]. The main idea of equation (2) is the following: The term R ?1 A ?2 A is equivalent to the RESCAL model and provides an efficient approach to learn from latent patterns on relational data. The oracle tensor M on the other hand is not factorized, such that it can hold information that is difficult to predict via latent variable methods. As it is not clear a priori which score functions are good predictors for which relations, the term M ?3 W learns a weighting of how predictive any score function is for any relation. By integrating both terms in an additive model, the term M ?3 W can potentially reduce the required rank for the RESCAL term by explaining links that, for instance, reduce the diclique partition number of a digraph. Rules and operations that are likely to reduce the diclique partition 5 number of slices in X are therefore good candidates to be included in M. For instance, by including a copy of the observed adjacency tensor X in M (or some selected frontal slices X k ), the term M ?3 W can easily model common multi-relational patterns where the existence of a relationship in one relation correlates with the existence of a relationship between the same entities in another relation ? via x i j k ? p ?k wk p x i j p . Since wk p is allowed to be negative, anti-correlations can be modeled efficiently. ARE is similar in spirit to the model of Koren [14], which extends SVD with additive terms to include local neighborhood information in an uni-relational recommendation setting and Jiang et al. [9] which uses an additive matrix factorization model for link prediction. Furthermore, the recently proposed Google Knowledge Vault (KV) [5] considers a combination of PRA and a neural network model related to RESCAL for learning from large multi-relational datasets. However, in KV both models are trained separately and combined only later in a separate fusion step, whereas ARE learns both models jointly what leads to the desired rank-reduction effect. To compute ARE, we pursue a similar optimization scheme as used for RESCAL which has been shown to scale to large datasets [22]. In particular, we solve the regularized optimization problem min }X ? pR ?1 A ?2 A ` M ?3 W q}2F ` ? A }A}2F ` ? R }R}2F ` ? W }W }2F . A,R,W (3) via alternating least-squares, which is a block-coordinate optimization method in which blocks of variables are updated alternatingly until convergence. For equation (3) the variable blocks are given naturally by the factors A, R, and W . Updates for W Let E ? pX ? R ?1 A ?2 Aq and I be the identity matrix. We rewrite equation (2) as Ep3q ? W Mp3q such that equation (3) becomes a regularized least-squares problem when solving for W . It follows that updates for W can be computed via W ? pMp3q MpJ3q ` ? W Iq?1 Mp3q EpJ3q . However, performing the updates in this way would be very inefficient as it involves the computation of the dense N ? N ? K tensor R ?1 A ?2 A. This would quickly lead to scalability issues with regard to runtime and memory requirements. To overcome this issue, we rewrite Mp3q EpJ3q using the equality pR ?1 A ?2 Aqp3q MpJ3q ? Rp3q pM ?1 AJ ?2 AJ qJ . Updates for W can then be computed p3q efficiently as ? ? J ?1 W J ? Xp3q MpJ3q ? Rp3q pM ?1 AJ ?2 AJ qJ (4) p3q pMp3q Mp3q ` ? W Iq . In equation (4) the dense tensor R ?1 A ?2 A is never computed explicitly and the computational complexity with regard to the parameters N, K, and r is reduced from OpN 2 Krq to OpN Kr 3 q. Furthermore, all terms in equation (4) except Rp3q pM ?1 AJ ?2 AJ qJ are constant and have only to p3q be computed once at the beginning of the algorithm. Finally, Xp3q MpJ3q and Mp3q MpJ3q are the products of sparse matrices such that their computational complexity depends only on the number of nonzeros in X or M. A full derivation of equation (4) can be found in the supplementary material A.4. Updates for A and R The updates for A and R can be derived directly from the RESCAL-ALS algorithm by setting E ? X ? M ?3 W and computing the RESCAL factorization of E. The updates for A can therefore be computed by: ?? K ? ?? K ??1 A? Ek ARkJ ` EkJ ARk Rk AJ ARkJ ` RkJ AJ ARk ` ?I k ?1 k ?1 where Ek ? X k ? M ?3 wk and wk denotes the k-th row of W . The updates of R can be computed in the following way: Let A ? U?V J be the SVD of A, where ?i is the i-th singular value of A. Furthemore, let S be a matrix with entries s i j ? ?i ? j {p?i2 ? 2j ` ? R q. ` ? An update of Rk can then be computed via Rk ? V S ? pU J pX k ? M ?3 wk qUq V J , where ??? denotes the Hadamard product. For a full derivation of these updates please see [20]. 4 Evaluation We evaluated ARE on various multi-relational datasets where we were in particular interested in its generalization ability relative to the factorization rank. For comparison, we included the well-known 6 Aera under Precision?Recall Curve 100 95 80 90 90 75 80 85 70 70 80 65 60 75 50 60 70 40 CP Tucker MW RESCAL ARE 30 20 CP Tucker MW RESCAL ARE 65 60 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 45 5 10 15 Rank 20 25 30 5 10 Rank (a) Kinships 15 20 25 30 Rank (b) PoliticalDiscussant (c) CloseFriend 95 100 Aera under Precision?Recall Curve 50 55 10 CP Tucker MW RESCAL ARE 55 100 90 95 85 90 95 80 CP Tucker MW RESCAL ARE 85 80 CP Tucker MW RESCAL ARE CP Tucker MW RESCAL ARE 75 90 70 5 10 15 20 25 Rank (d) BlogLiveJournalTwitter 30 5 10 15 20 25 Rank (e) SocializeTwicePerWeek 30 5 10 15 20 25 30 Rank (f) FacebookAllTaggedPhotos Figure 1: Evaluation results for AUC-PR on the Kinships (1a) and Social Evolution data sets (1b-1f). CP and Tucker tensor factorizations in the evaluation, as well as RESCAL and the non-latent model X ? M ?3 W (in the following denoted by MW ). In all experiments, the oracle tensor M used in MW and ARE is identical, such that the results of MW can be regarded as a baseline for the contribution of the heuristic methods to ARE. Following [10, 11, 28, 21] we used k-fold cross-validation for the evaluation, partitioning the entries of the adjacency tensor into training, validation, and test sets. In the test and validation folds all entries are set to 0. Due to the large imbalance of true and false relationships, we used the area under the precision-recall curve (AUC-PR) to measure predictive performance, which is known to behave better with imbalanced classes then AUC-ROC. All AUC-PR results are averaged over the different test-folds. Links and references for the datasets used in the evaluation are provided in the supplementary material A.5. Social Evolution First, we evaluated ARE on a dataset consisting of multiple relations of persons living in an undergraduate dormitory. From the relational data, we constructed a 84?84?5 adjacency tensor where two modes correspond to persons and the third mode represents the relations between these persons such as friendship (CloseFriend), social media interaction (BlogLivejournalTwitter and FacebookAllTaggedPhotos), political discussion (PoliticalDiscussant), and social interaction (SocializeTwicePerWeek). For each relation, we performed link prediction via 5-fold cross validation. The oracle tensor M consisted only of a copy of the observed tensor X. Including X in M allows ARE to efficiently exploit patterns where the existence of a social relationship for a particular pair of persons is predictive for other social interactions between exactly this pair of persons (e.g. close friends are more likely to socialize twice per week). It can be seen from the results in figure 1(b ? f ) that ARE achieves better performance than all competing approaches and already achieves excellent performance at a very low rank, what supports our theoretical considerations. Kinship The Kinship dataset describes the kinship relations in the Australian Alyawarra tribe in terms of 26 kinship relations between 104 persons. The task in the experiment was to predict unknown kinship relations via 10-fold cross validation in the same manner as in [21]. Table 1 shows the improvement of ARE over state-of-the-art relational learning methods. Figure 1a shows the predictive performance compared to the rank of multiple factorization methods. It can be seen that ARE outperforms all other methods significantly for lower rank. Moreover, starting from rank 40 ARE gives already comparable results to the best results in table 1. As in the previous experiments, M consisted only of a copy of X. On this dataset, the copy of X allows ARE to model efficiently that the relations in the data are mutually exclusive by setting wii ? 0 and wi j ? 0 for all i ? j. This also explains the large improvement of ARE over RESCAL for small ranks. 7 Link Prediction on Semantic Web Data The SWRC ontology models a research group in terms of people, publications, projects, and research interests. The task in our experiments was to predict the affiliation relation, i.e. to map persons to research groups. We followed the experimental setting in [18]: From the raw data, we created a 12058 ? 12058 ? 85 tensor by considering all directly connected entities of persons and research groups. In total, 168 persons and 5 research groups are considered in the evaluation data. The oracle tensor M consisted again of a copy of X and of the common neighbor heuristics X i X i and X iJ X iJ . These heuristics were included to model patterns like people who share the same research interest are likely in the same affiliation or a person is related to a department if the person belongs to a group in the department. We also imposed a sparsity penalty on W to prune away inactive heuristics during iterations. Table 2 shows that ARE improved the results significantly over three state-of-the-art link prediction methods for Semantic Web data. Moreover, whereas RESCAL required a rank of 45, ARE required only a small rank of 15. Figure 2: Runtime on Cora Table 1: Evaluation Results on Kinships. 0.84 0.82 nDCG 0.80 AUC Rank 0.78 MRC [11] BCTF [28] LFM [8] RESCAL ARE 86 - 90 - 94.6 (50,50,500) 96 100 96.9 90 0.76 0.74 0.72 0.70 ?1 10 Table 2: Evaluation results on SWRC. RESCAL ARE 10 0 10 1 10 2 nDCG SVD Subtrees [18] RESCAL MW ARE 0.8 0.95 0.96 0.59 0.99 Time (s) Runtime Performance To evaluate the trade-off between runtime and predictive performance we recorded the nDCG values of RESCAL and ARE after each iteration of the respective ALS algorithms on the Cora citation database. We used the variant of Cora in which all publications are organized in a hierarchy of topics with two to three levels and 68 leaves. The relational data consists of information about paper citations, authors and topics from which a tensor of size 28073?28073?3 is constructed. The oracle tensor consisted of a copy of X and the common neighbor patterns X i X j and X iJ X J j to model patterns such that a cited paper shares the same topic, a cited paper shares the same author etc. The task of the experiment was to predict the leaf topic of papers by 5-fold cross-validation on a moderate PC with Intel(R) Core i5 @3.1GHz, 4G RAM. The optimal rank 220 for RESCAL was determined out of the range r10, 300s via parameter selection. For ARE we used a significantly smaller rank 20. Figure 2 shows the runtime of RESCAL and ARE compared to their predictive performance. It is evident that ARE outperforms RESCAL after a few iterations although the rank of the factorization is decreased by an order of magnitude. Moreover, ARE surpasses the best prediction results of RESCAL in terms of total runtime even before the first iteration of RESCAL-ALS has terminated. 5 Concluding Remarks In this paper we considered learning from latent and observable patterns on multi-relational data. We showed analytically that the rank of adjacency tensors is upper bounded by the sum of diclique partition numbers and lower bounded by the maximum number of strongly connected components of any relation in the data. Based on our theoretical results, we proposed an additive tensor factorization approach for learning from multi-relational data which combines strengths from latent and observable variable methods. Furthermore we presented an efficient and scalable algorithm to compute the factorization. Experimentally we showed that the proposed approach does not only increase the predictive performance but is also very successful in reducing the required rank ? and therefore also the required runtime ? of the factorization. The proposed additive model is one option to overcome the rank-scalability problem outlined in section 2, however not the only one. In future work we intend to investigate to what extent sparse or hierarchical models can be used to the same effect. Acknowledgements Maximilian Nickel acknowledges support by the Center for Brains, Minds and Machines (CBMM), funded by NSF STC award CCF-1231216. 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A? Sampling Chris J. Maddison Dept. of Computer Science University of Toronto cmaddis@cs.toronto.edu Daniel Tarlow, Tom Minka Microsoft Research {dtarlow,minka}@microsoft.com Abstract The problem of drawing samples from a discrete distribution can be converted into a discrete optimization problem [1, 2, 3, 4]. In this work, we show how sampling from a continuous distribution can be converted into an optimization problem over continuous space. Central to the method is a stochastic process recently described in mathematical statistics that we call the Gumbel process. We present a new construction of the Gumbel process and A? Sampling, a practical generic sampling algorithm that searches for the maximum of a Gumbel process using A? search. We analyze the correctness and convergence time of A? Sampling and demonstrate empirically that it makes more efficient use of bound and likelihood evaluations than the most closely related adaptive rejection sampling-based algorithms. 1 Introduction Drawing samples from arbitrary probability distributions is a core problem in statistics and machine learning. Sampling methods are used widely when training, evaluating, and predicting with probabilistic models. In this work, we introduce a generic sampling algorithm that returns exact independent samples from a distribution of interest. This line of work is important as we seek to include probabilistic models as subcomponents in larger systems, and as we seek to build probabilistic modelling tools that are usable by non-experts; in these cases, guaranteeing the quality of inference is highly desirable. There are a range of existing approaches for exact sampling. Some are specialized to specific distributions [5], but exact generic methods are based either on (adaptive) rejection sampling [6, 7, 8] or Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods where convergence to the stationary distribution can be guaranteed [9, 10, 11]. This work approaches the problem from a different perspective. Specifically, it is inspired by an algorithm for sampling from a discrete distribution that is known as the Gumbel-Max trick. The algorithm works by adding independent Gumbel perturbations to each configuration of a discrete negative energy function and returning the argmax configuration of the perturbed negative energy function. The result is an exact sample from the corresponding Gibbs distribution. Previous work [1, 3] has used this property to motivate samplers based on optimizing random energy functions but has been forced to resort to approximate sampling due to the fact that in structured output spaces, exact sampling appears to require instantiating exponentially many Gumbel perturbations. Our first key observation is that we can apply the Gumbel-Max trick without instantiating all of the (possibly exponentially many) Gumbel perturbations. The same basic idea then allows us to extend the Gumbel-Max trick to continuous spaces where there will be infinitely many independent perturbations. Intuitively, for any given random energy function, there are many perturbation values that are irrelevant to determining the argmax so long as we have an upper bound on their values. We will show how to instantiate the relevant ones and bound the irrelevant ones, allowing us to find the argmax ? and thus an exact sample. There are a number of challenges that must be overcome along the way, which are addressed in this work. First, what does it mean to independently perturb space in a way analogous to perturbations in the Gumbel-Max trick? We introduce the Gumbel process, a special case of a stochastic process recently defined in mathematical statistics [12], which generalizes the notion of perturbation 1 over space. Second, we need a method for working with a Gumbel process that does not require instantiating infinitely many random variables. This leads to our novel construction of the Gumbel process, which draws perturbations according to a top-down ordering of their values. Just as the stick breaking construction of the Dirichlet process gives insight into algorithms for the Dirichlet process, our construction gives insight into algorithms for the Gumbel process. We demonstrate this by developing A? sampling, which leverages the construction to draw samples from arbitrary continuous distributions. We study the relationship between A? sampling and adaptive rejection sampling-based methods and identify a key difference that leads to more efficient use of bound and likelihood computations. We investigate the behaviour of A? sampling on a variety of illustrative and challenging problems. 2 The Gumbel Process The Gumbel-Max trick is an algorithm for sampling from a categorical distribution over classes i 2 {1, . . . , n} with probability proportional to exp( (i)). The algorithm proceeds by adding independent Gumbel-distributed noise to the log-unnormalized mass (i) and returns the optimal class of the perturbed distribution. In more detail, G ? Gumbel(m) is a Gumbel with location m if P(G ? g) = exp( exp( g + m)). The Gumbel-Max trick follows from the structure of Gumbel distributions and basic properties P of order statistics; if G(i) are i.i.d. Gumbel(0), then argmaxi {G(i) + (i)} ? exp( (i))/ i exp( (i)). Further, for any B ? {1, . . . , n} ! X max {G(i) + (i)} ? Gumbel log exp( (i)) (1) i2B i2B exp( (i)) argmax {G(i) + (i)} ? P (2) i2B i2B exp( (i)) Eq. 1 is known as max-stability?the highest order statistic of a sample of independent Gumbels also has a Gumbel distribution with a location that is the log partition function [13]. Eq. 2 is a consequence of the fact that Gumbels satisfy Luce?s choice axiom [14]. Moreover, the max and argmax are independent random variables, see Appendix for proofs. We would like to generalize the interpretation to continuous distributions as maximizing over the perturbation of a density p(x) / exp( (x)) on Rd . The perturbed density should have properties analogousR to the discrete case, namely that the max in B ? Rd should be distributed as Gumbel(log x2B exp( (x))) and the distribution of the argmax in B should be distributed / 1(x 2 B) exp( (x)). The Gumbel process is a generalization satisfying these properties. Definition 1. Adapted from [12]. Let ?(B) be a sigma-finite measure on sample space ?, B ? ? measurable, and G? (B) a random variable. G? = {G? (B) | B ? ?} is a Gumbel process, if 1. (marginal distributions) G? (B) ? Gumbel (log ?(B)) . 2. (independence of disjoint sets) G? (B) ? G? (B c ). 3. (consistency constraints) for measurable A, B ? ?, then G? (A [ B) = max(G? (A), G? (B)). The marginal distributions condition ensures that the Gumbel process satisfies the requirement on the max. The consistency requirement ensures that a realization of a Gumbel process is consistent across space. Together with the independence these ensure the argmax requirement. In particular, if G? (B) is the optimal value of some perturbed density restricted to B, then the event that the optima over ? is contained in B is equivalent to the event that G? (B) G? (B c ). The conditions ensure that P(G? (B) G? (B c )) is a probability measure proportional to ?(B) [12]. Thus, we can use R the Gumbel process for a continuous measure ?(B) = x2B exp( (x)) on Rd to model a perturbed density function where the optimum is distributed / exp( (x)). Notice that this definition is a generalization of the finite case; if ? is finite, then the collection G? corresponds exactly to maxes over subsets of independent Gumbels. 3 Top-Down Construction for the Gumbel Process While [12] defines and constructs a general class of stochastic processes that include the Gumbel process, the construction that proves their existence gives little insight into how to execute a con2 tinuous version of the Gumbel-Max trick. Here we give an alternative algorithmic construction that will form the foundation of our practical sampling algorithm. In this section we assume log ?(?) can be computed tractably; this assumption will be lifted in Section 4. To explain the construction, we consider the discrete case as an introductory example. Suppose G? (i) ? Gumbel( (i)) is a set Algorithm 1 Top-Down Construction of independent Gumbel random variables R for i 2 {1, . . . , n}. It would be straight- input sample space ?, measure ?(B) = B exp( )dm (B1 , Q) (?, Queue) forward to sample the variables then build G1 ? Gumbel(log ?(?)) a heap of the G? (i) values and also have X1 ? exp( (x))/?(?) heap nodes store the index i associated Q.push(1) with their value. Let Bi be the set of k 1 indices that appear in the subtree rooted while !Q.empty() do at the node with index i. A property of p Q.pop() the heap is that the root (G? (i), i) pair is L, R partition(Bp {Xp }) the max and argmax of the set of Gumfor C 2 {L, R} do bels with index in Bi . The key idea of if C 6= ; then k k+1 our construction is to sample the indepenBk C dent set of random variables by instantiatGk ? TruncGumbel(log ?(Bk ), Gp ) ing this heap from root to leaves. That is, Xk ? 1(x 2 Bk ) exp( (x))/?(Bk ) we will first sample the root node, which is Q.push(k) the global max and argmax, then we will yield (Gk , Xk ) recurse, sampling the root?s two children conditional upon the root. At the end, we will have sampled a heap full of values and indices; reading off the value associated with each index will yield a draw of independent Gumbels from the target distribution. We sketch an inductive argument. For the base case, sample the max and its index i? using their distributions that we know from Eq. 1 and Eq. 2. Note the max and argmax are independent. Also let Bi? = {0, . . . , n 1} be the set of all indices. Now, inductively, suppose have sampled a partial heap and would like to recurse downward starting at (G? (p), p). Partition the remaining indices to be sampled Bp {p} into two subsets L and R and let l 2 L be the left argmax and r 2 R be the right argmax. Let [ p] be the indices that have been sampled already. Then p G? (l) = gl , G? (r) = gr , {G? (k) = gk }k2[ p] | [ p] ? ? ? ? Y /p max G? (i) = gl p max G? (i) = gr pk (G? (k) = gk )1 gk i2L i2R k2[ p] (3) gL(k) ^ gk gR(k) where L(k) and R(k) denote the left and right children of k and the constraints should only be applied amongst nodes [ p] [ {l, r}. This implies p G? (l) = gl , G? (r) = gr | {G? (k) = gk }k2[ p] , [ p] ? ? ? ? / p max G? (i) = gl p max G? (i) = gr 1(gp > gl ) 1(gp > gr ) . i2L i2R (4) Eq. 4 is the joint density of two independent Gumbels truncated at G? (p). We could sample the children maxes and argmaxes by sampling the independent Gumbels in L and R respectively and computing their maxes, rejecting those that exceed the known value of G? (p). Better, the truncated Gumbel distributions can be sampled efficiently via CDF inversion1 , and the independent argmaxes within L and R can be sampled using Eq. 2. Note that any choice of partitioning strategy for L and R leads to the same distribution over the set of Gumbel values. The basic structure of this top-down sampling procedure allows us to deal with infinite spaces; we can still generate an infinite descending heap of Gumbels and locations as if we had made a heap from an infinite list. The algorithm (which appears as Algorithm 1) begins by sampling the optimal value G1 ? Gumbel(log ?(?)) over sample space ? and its location X1 ? exp( (x))/?(?). X1 is removed from the sample space and the remaining sample space is partitioned into L and R. The optimal Gumbel values for L and R are sampled from a Gumbel with location log measure of their 1 G ? TruncGumbel( , b) if G has CDF exp( exp( min(g, b)+ ))/ exp( exp( b+ )). To sample efficiently, return G = log(exp( b + ) log(U )) + where U ? uniform[0, 1]. 3 respective sets, but truncated at G1 . The locations are sampled independently from their sets, and the procedure recurses. As in the discrete case, this yields a stream of (Gk , Xk ) pairs, which we can think of as being nodes in a heap of the Gk ?s. If G? (x) is the value of the perturbed negative energy at x, then Algorithm 1 instantiates this function at countably many points by setting G? (Xk ) = Gk . In the discrete case we eventually sample the complete perturbed density, but in the continuous case we simply generate an infinite stream of locations and values. The sense in which Algorithm 1 constructs a Gumbel process is that the collection {max{Gk | Xk 2 B} | B ? ?} satisfies Definition 1. The intuition should be provided by the introductory argument; a full proof appears in the Appendix. An important note is that because Gk ?s are sampled in descending order along a path in the tree, when the first Xk lands in set B, the value of max{Gk | Xk 2 B} will not change as the algorithm continues. 4 exact sample A? Sampling The Top-Down construction is not executable in general, because it assumes log ?(?) can be computed efficiently. A? sampling is an algorithm that executes the Gumbel-Max trick without this assumption by exploiting properties of the Gumbel process. Henceforth A? sampling refers exclusively to the continuous version. LB1 LB2 o(x)+G x1 x2 o(x) A sampling is possible because we can trans? Figure 1: Illustration of A sampling. form one Gumbel process into another by adding the difference in their log densities. Algorithm 2 A? Sampling Suppose we Rhave two continuous measures ?(B) = exp( (x)) and ?(B) = input log density i(x), difference o(x), bounding x2B R function M (B), and partition exp(i(x)). Let pairs (Gk , Xk ) be draws x2B (LB, X ? , k) ( 1, null, 1) from the Top-Down construction for G? . If Q PriorityQueue o(x) = (x) i(x) is bounded, then we G1 ? Gumbel(log ?(Rd )) can recover G? by adding the difference o(Xk ) X1 ? exp(i(x))/?(Rd )) to every Gk ; i.e., {max{Gk + o(Xk ) | Xk 2 M1 M (Rd ) B} | B ? Rd } is a Gumbel process with meaQ.pushW ithP riority(1, G1 + M1 ) sure ?. As an example, if ? were a prior and while !Q.empty() and LB < Q.topP riority() do o(x) a bounded log-likelihood, then we could p Q.popHighest() LBp Gp + o(Xp ) simulate the Gumbel process corresponding to if LB < LBp then the posterior by adding o(Xk ) to every Gk from LB LBp a run of the construction for ?. ? ? X Xp This ?linearity? allows us to decompose a tarL, R partition(Bp , Xp ) for C 2 {L, R} do get log density function into a tractable i(x) if C 6= ; then and boundable o(x). The tractable compok k+1 nent is analogous to the proposal distribution Bk C in a rejection sampler. A? sampling searches Gk ? TruncGumbel(log ?(Bk ), Gp ) for argmax{Gk + o(Xk )} within the heap of Xk ? 1(x 2 Bk ) exp(i(x))/?(Bk ) (Gk , Xk ) pairs from the Top-Down construcif LB < Gk + Mp then ? tion of G? . The search is an A procedure: Mk M (Bk ) nodes in the search tree correspond to increasif LB < Gk + Mk then ingly refined regions in space, and the search Q.pushW ithP riority(k, Gk + Mk ) is guided by upper and lower bounds that are output (LB, X ? ) computed for each region. Lower bounds for region B come from drawing the max Gk and argmax Xk of G? within B and evaluating Gk +o(Xk ). Upper bounds come from the fact that max{Gk + o(Xk ) | Xk 2 B} ? max{Gk | Xk 2 B} + M (B), where M (B) is a bounding function for a region, M (B) o(x) for all x 2 B. M (B) is not random and can be implemented using methods from e.g., convex duality or interval analysis. The first term on the RHS is the Gk value used in the lower bound. 4 The algorithm appears in Algorithm 2 and an execution is illustrated in Fig. 1. The algorithm begins with a global upper bound (dark blue dashed). G1 and X1 are sampled, and the first lower bound LB1 = G1 + o(X1 ) is computed. Space is split, upper bounds are computed for the new children regions (medium blue dashed), and the new nodes are put on the queue. The region with highest upper bound is chosen, the maximum Gumbel in the region, (G2 , X2 ), is sampled, and LB2 is computed. The current region is split at X2 (producing light blue dashed bounds), after which LB2 is greater than the upper bound for any region on the queue, so LB2 is guaranteed to be the max over the infinite tree of Gk + o(Xk ). Because max{Gk + o(Xk ) | Xk 2 B} is a Gumbel process with measure ?, this means that X2 is an exact sample from p(x) / exp( (x))) and LB2 is an exact sample from Gumbel(log ?(Rd )). Proofs of termination and correctness are in the Appendix. A? Sampling Variants. There are several variants of A? sampling. When more than one sample is desired, bound information can be reused across runs of the sampler. In particular, suppose we have a partition of Rd with bounds on o(x) for each region. A? sampling could use this by running a search independently for each region and returning the max Gumbel. The maximization can be done lazily by using A? search, only expanding nodes in regions that are needed to determine the global maximum. The second variant trades bound computations for likelhood computations by drawing more than one sample from the auxiliary Gumbel process at each node in the search tree. In this way, more lower bounds are computed (costing more likelihood evaluations), but if this leads to better lower bounds, then more regions of space can be pruned, leading to fewer bound evaluations. Finally, an interesting special case of A? sampling can be implemented when o(x) is unimodal in 1D. In this case, at every split of a parent node, one child can immediately be pruned, so the ?search? can be executed without a queue. It simply maintains the currently active node and drills down until it has provably found the optimum. 5 Comparison to Rejection Samplers Our first result relating A? sampling to rejection sampling is that if the same global bound M = M (Rd ) is used at all nodes within A? sampling, then the runtime of A? sampling is equivalent to that of standard rejection sampling. That is, the distribution over the number of iterations is distributed as a Geometric distribution with rate parameter ?(Rd )/(exp(M )?(Rd )). A proof is in the Appendix as part of the proof of termination. When bounds are refined, A? sampling bears similarity to adaptive rejection sampling-based algorithms. In particular, while it appears only to have been applied in discrete domains, OS? [7] is a general class of adaptive rejection sampling methods that maintain piecewise bounds on the target distribution. If piecewise constant bounds are used (henceforth we assume OS? uses only constant bounds) the procedure can be described as follows: at each step, (1) a region B with bound U (B) is sampled with probability proportional to ?(B) exp(M (B)), (2) a point is drawn from the proposal distribution restricted to the chosen region; (3) standard accept/rejection computations are performed using the regional bound, and (4) if the point is rejected, a region is chosen to be split into two, and new bounds are computed for the two regions that were created by the split. This process repeats until a point is accepted. Steps (2) and (4) are performed identically in A? when sampling argmax Gumbel locations and when splitting a parent node. A key difference is how regions are chosen in step (1). In OS? , a region is drawn according to volume of the region under the proposal. Note that piece selection could be implemented using the Gumbel-Max trick, in which case we would choose the piece with maximum GB + M (B) where GB ? Gumbel(log ?(B)). In A? sampling the region with highest upper bound is chosen, where the upper bound is GB + M (B). The difference is that GB values are reset after each rejection in OS? , while they persist in A? sampling until a sample is returned. The effect of the difference is that A? sampling more tightly couples together where the accepted sample will be and which regions are refined. Unlike OS? , it can go so far as to prune a region from the search, meaning there is zero probability that the returned sample will be from that region, and that region will never be refined further. OS? , on the other hand, is blind towards where the sample that will eventually be accepted comes from and will on average waste more computation refining regions that ultimately are not useful in drawing the sample. In experiments, we will see that A? consistently dominates OS? , refining the function less while also using fewer likelihood evaluations. This is possible because the persistence inside A? sampling focuses the refinement on the regions that are important for accepting the current sample. 5 (a) vs. peakiness (b) vs. # pts (c) Problem-dependent scaling Figure 2: (a) Drill down algorithm performance on p(x) = exp( x)/(1 + x)a as function of a. (b) Effect of different bounding strategies as a function of number of data points; number of likelihood and bound evaluations are reported. (c) Results of varying observation noise in several nonlinear regression problems. 6 Experiments There are three main aims in this section. First, understand the empirical behavior of A? sampling as parameters of the inference problem and o(x) bounds vary. Second, demonstrate generality by showing that A? sampling algorithms can be instantiated in just a few lines of model-specific code by expressing o(x) symbolically, and then using a branch and bound library to automatically compute bounds. Finally, compare to OS? and an MCMC method (slice sampling). In all experiments, regions in the search trees are hyper rectangles (possibly with infinite extent); to split a region A, choose the dimension with the largest side length and split the dimension at the sampled Xk point. 6.1 Scaling versus Peakiness and Dimension In the first experiment, we sample from p(x) = exp( x)/(1 + x)a for x > 0, a > 0 using exp( x) as the proposal distribution. In this case, o(x) = a log(1 + x) which is unimodal, so the drill down variant of A? sampling can be used. As a grows, the function becomes peakier; while this presents significant difficulty for vanilla rejection sampling, the cost to A? is just the cost of locating the peak, which is essentially binary search. Results averaged over 1000 runs appear in Fig. 2 (a). In the second experiment, we run A? sampling on the clutter problem [15], which estimates the mean of a fixed covariance isotropic Gaussian under the assumption that some points are outliers. We put a Gaussian prior on the inlier mean and set i(x) to be equal to the prior, so o(x) contains just the likelihood terms. To compute bounds on the total log likelihood, we compute upper bounds on the log likelihood of each point independently then sum up these bounds. We will refer to these as ?constant? bounds. In D dimensions, we generated 20 data points with half within [ 5, 3]D and half within [2, 4]D , which ensures that the posterior is sharply bimodal, making vanilla MCMC quickly inappropriate as D grows. The cost of drawing an exact sample as a function of D (averaged over 100 runs) grows exponentially in D, but the problem remains reasonably tractable as D grows (D = 3 requires 900 likelihood evaluations, D = 4 requires 4000). The analogous OS? algorithm run on the same set of problems requires 16% to 40% more computation on average over the runs. 6.2 Bounding Strategies Here we investigate alternative strategies for bounding o(x) in the case where o(x) is a sum of per-instance log likelihoods. To allow easy implementation of a variety of bounding strategies, we choose the simple problem of estimating the mean of a 1D Gaussian given N observations. We use three types of bounds: constant bounds as in the clutter problem; linear bounds, where we compute linear upper bounds on each term of the sum, then sum the linear functions and take the max over the region; and quadratic bounds, which are the same as linear except quadratic bounds are computed on each term. In this problem, quadratic bounds are tight. We evaluate A? sampling using each of the bounding strategies, varying N . See Fig. 2 (b) for results. For N = 1, all bound types are equivalent when each expands around the same point. For larger N , the looseness of each per-point bound becomes important. The figure shows that, for large N , using linear bounds multiplies the number of evaluations p by 3, compared to tight bounds. Using constant bounds multiplies the number of evaluations by O( N ). The Appendix explains why this happens 6 and shows that this behavior is expected for any estimation problem where the width of the posterior shrinks with N . 6.3 Using Generic Interval Bounds Here we study the use of bounds that are derived automatically by means of interval methods [16]. This suggests how A? sampling (or OS? ) could be used within a more general purpose probabilistic programming setting. We chose a number of nonlinear regression models inspired by problems in physics, computational ecology, and biology. For each, we use FuncDesigner [17] to symbolically construct o(x) and automatically compute the bounds needed by the samplers. Several expressions for y = f (x) appear in the legend of Fig. 2 (c), where letters a through f denote parameters that we wish to sample. The model in all cases is yn = f (xn ) + ?n where n is the data point index and ?n is Gaussian noise. We set uniform priors from a reasonable range for all parameters (see Appendix) and generated a small (N=3) set of training data from the model so that posteriors are multimodal. The peakiness of the posterior can be controlled by the magnitude of the observation noise; we varied this from large to small to produce problems over a range of difficulties. We use A? sampling to sample from the posterior five times for each model and noise setting and report the average number of likelihood evaluations needed in Fig. 2 (c) (y-axis). To establish the difficulty of the problems, we estimate the expected number of likelihood evaluations needed by a rejection sampler to accept a sample. The savings over rejection sampling is often exponentially large, but it varies per problem and is not necessarily tied to the dimension. In the example where savings are minimal, there are many symmetries in the model, which leads to uninformative bounds. We also compared to OS? on the same class of problems. Here we generated 20 random instances with a fixed intermediate observation noise value for each problem and drew 50 samples, resetting the bounds after each sample. The average cost (heuristically set to # likelihood evaluations plus 2 ? # bound evaluations) of OS? for the five models in Fig. 2 (c) respectively was 21%, 30%, 11%, 21%, and 27% greater than for A? . 6.4 Robust Bayesian Regression Here our aim is to do Bayesian inference in a robust linear regression model yn = wT xn + ?n where noise ?n is distributed as standard Cauchy and w has an isotropic Gaussian prior. Given a dataset D = {xn , yn }N n=1 our goal is to draw samples from the posterior P(w | D). This is a challenging problem because the heavy-tailed P noise model can lead to multimodality in the posterior over w. The log likelihood is L(w) = n log(1 + (wT xn yn )2 ). We generated N data points with input dimension D in such a way that the posterior is bimodal and symmetric by setting w? = [2, ..., 2]T , generating X 0 ? randn(N/2, D) and y 0 ? X 0 w? +.1?randn(N/2), then setting X = [X 0 ; X 0 ] and y = [y 0 ; y 0 ]. There are then equally-sized modes near w? and w? . We decompose the posterior into a uniform i(?) within the interval [ 10, 10]D and put all of the prior and likelihood terms into o(?). Bounds are computed per point; in some regions the per point bounds are linear, and in others they are quadratic. Details appear in the Appendix. We compare to OS? , using two refinement strategies that are discussed in [7]. The first is directly analogous to A? sampling and is the method we have used in the earlier OS? comparisons. When a point is rejected, refine the piece that was proposed from at the sampled point, and split the dimension with largest side length. The second method splits the region with largest probability under the proposal. We ran experiments on several random draws of the data and report performance along the two axes that are the dominant costs: how many bound computations were used, and how many likelihood evaluations were used. To weigh the tradeoff between the two, we did a rough asymptotic calculation of the costs of bounds versus likelihood computations and set the cost of a bound computation to be D + 1 times the cost of a likelihood computation. In the first experiment, we ask each algorithm to draw a single exact sample from the posterior. Here, we also report results for the variants of A? sampling and OS? that trade off likelihood computations for bound computations as discussed in Section 4. A representative result appears in Fig. 3 (left). Across operating points, A? consistently uses fewer bound evaluations and fewer likelihood evaluations than both OS? refinement strategies. In the second experiment, we ask each algorithm to draw 200 samples from the posterior and experiment with the variants that reuse bound information across samples. A representative result appears in Fig. 3 (right). Here we see that the extra refinement done by OS? early on allows it to use fewer likelihood evaluations at the expense of more bound computations, but A? sampling operates at a 7 point that is not achievable by OS? . For all of these problems, we ran a random direction slice sampler [18] that was given 10 times the computational budget that A? sampling used to draw 200 samples. The slice sampler had trouble mixing when D > 1. Across the five runs for D = 2, the sampler switched modes once, and it did not ever switch modes when D > 2. 7 Discussion This work answers a natural question: is there a Gumbel-Max trick for continuous spaces, and can it be leveraged to develop tractable algorithms for sampling from continuous distributions? In the discrete case, recent work on ?Perturb and MAP? (P&M) methods [1, 19, 2] that draw samples as the argmaxes of random energy functions has shown value in developing approximate, correlated perturbations. It is natural to think about continuous analogs in which exactness is abandoned in favor of more efficient computation. A question is if the approximations can be developed in a principled way, like how [3] showed a particular form of correlated discrete perturbation gives rise to bounds on the log partition function. Can analogous rigorous approximations be established in the continuous case? We hope this work is a starting point for exploring that question. Figure 3: A? (circles) versus OS? (squares and dia- monds) computational costs on Cauchy regression experiments of varying dimension. Square is refinement strategy that splits node where rejected point was sampled; Diamond refines region with largest mass under the proposal distribution. Red lines denote lines of equi-total computational cost and are spaced on a log scale by 10% increase increments. Color of markers denotes the rate of refinement, ranging from (darkest) refining for every rejection (for OS? ) or one lower bound evaluation per node expansion (for A? ) to (lightest) refining on 10% of rejections (for OS? ) or performing 1 Poisson( .1 1) + 1 lower bound evaluations per node expansion (for A? ). (left) Cost of drawing a single sample, averaged over 20 random data sets. (right) Drawing 200 samples averaged over 5 random data sets. Results are similar over a range of N ?s and D = 1, . . . , 4. We do not solve the problem of high dimensions. There are simple examples where bounds become uninformative in high dimensions, such as when sampling a density that is uniform over a hypersphere when using hyperrectangular search regions. In this case, little is gained over vanilla rejection sampling. An open question is if the split between i(?) and o(?) can be adapted to be node-specific during the search. An adaptive rejection sampler would be able to do this, which would allow leveraging parameter-varying bounds in the proposal distributions. This might be an important degree of freedom to exercise, particularly when scaling up to higher dimensions. There are several possible follow-ons including the discrete version of A? sampling and evaluating A? sampling as an estimator of the log partition function. In future work, we would like to explore taking advantage of conditional independence structure to perform more intelligent search, hopefully helping the method scale to larger dimensions. Example starting points might be ideas from AND/OR search [20] or branch and bound algorithms that only branch on a subset of dimensions [21]. Acknowledgments This research was supported by NSERC. We thank James Martens and Radford Neal for helpful discussions, Elad Mezuman for help developing early ideas related to this work, and Roger Grosse for suggestions that greatly improved this work. References [1] G. Papandreou and A. Yuille. Perturb-and-MAP Random Fields: Using Discrete Optimization to Learn and Sample from Energy Models. In ICCV, pages 193?200, November 2011. [2] Daniel Tarlow, Ryan Prescott Adams, and Richard S Zemel. Randomized Optimum Models for Structured Prediction. In AISTATS, pages 21?23, 2012. [3] Tamir Hazan and Tommi S Jaakkola. On the Partition Function and Random Maximum A-Posteriori Perturbations. In ICML, pages 991?998, 2012. 8 [4] Stefano Ermon, Carla P Gomes, Ashish Sabharwal, and Bart Selman. Embed and Project: Discrete Sampling with Universal Hashing. In NIPS, pages 2085?2093, 2013. [5] George Papandreou and Alan L Yuille. Gaussian Sampling by Local Perturbations. In NIPS, pages 1858?1866, 2010. [6] W.R. Gilks and P. Wild. Adaptive Rejection Sampling for Gibbs Sampling. Applied Statistics, 41(2):337 ? 348, 1992. [7] Marc Dymetman, Guillaume Bouchard, and Simon Carter. The OS* Algorithm: a Joint Approach to Exact Optimization and Sampling. arXiv preprint arXiv:1207.0742, 2012. [8] V Mansinghka, D Roy, E Jonas, and J Tenenbaum. Exact and Approximate Sampling by Systematic Stochastic Search. JMLR, 5:400?407, 2009. [9] James Gary Propp and David Bruce Wilson. Exact Sampling with Coupled Markov Chains and Applications to Statistical Mechanics. Random Structures and Algorithms, 9(1-2):223?252, 1996. [10] Antonietta Mira, Jesper Moller, and Gareth O Roberts. Perfect Slice Samplers. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 63(3):593?606, 2001. [11] Faheem Mitha. Perfect Sampling on Continuous State Spaces. PhD thesis, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, 2003. [12] Hannes Malmberg. Random Choice over a Continuous Set of Options. Master?s thesis, Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, 2013. [13] E. J. Gumbel and J. Lieblein. Statistical Theory of Extreme Values and Some Practical Applications: a Series of Lectures. US Govt. Print. Office, 1954. [14] John I. Yellott Jr. The Relationship between Luce?s Choice Axiom, Thurstone?s Theory of Comparative Judgment, and the Double Exponential Distribution. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 15(2):109 ? 144, 1977. [15] Thomas P Minka. Expectation Propagation for Approximate Bayesian Inference. In UAI, pages 362?369. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2001. [16] Eldon Hansen and G William Walster. Global Optimization Using Interval Analysis: Revised and Expanded, volume 264. CRC Press, 2003. [17] Dmitrey Kroshko. FuncDesigner. http://openopt.org/FuncDesigner, June 2014. [18] Radford M Neal. Slice Sampling. Annals of Statistics, pages 705?741, 2003. [19] Tamir Hazan, Subhransu Maji, and Tommi Jaakkola. On Sampling from the Gibbs Distribution with Random Maximum A-Posteriori Perturbations. In NIPS, pages 1268?1276. 2013. [20] Robert Eugeniu Mateescu. AND/OR Search Spaces for Graphical Models. PhD thesis, University of California, 2007. [21] Manmohan Chandraker and David Kriegman. Globally Optimal Bilinear Programming for Computer Vision Applications. In CVPR, pages 1?8, 2008. 9
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Self-organisation in real neurons: Anti-Hebb in 'Channel Space'? Anthony J. Bell AI-lab, Vrije U niversiteit Brussel Pleinlaan 2, B-I050 Brussels BELGIUM, (tony@arti.vub.ac.be) Abstract Ion channels are the dynamical systems of the nervous system. Their distribution within the membrane governs not only communication of information between neurons, but also how that information is integrated within the cell. Here, an argument is presented for an 'anti-Hebbian' rule for changing the distribution of voltage-dependent ion channels in order to flatten voltage curvatures in dendrites. Simulations show that this rule can account for the self-organisation of dynamical receptive field properties such as resonance and direction selectivity. It also creates the conditions for the faithful conduction within the cell of signals to which the cell has been exposed. Various possible cellular implementations of such a learning rule are proposed, including activity-dependent migration of channel proteins in the plane of the membrane. 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION NEURAL DYNAMICS Neural inputs and outputs are temporal, but there are no established ways to think about temporal learning and dynamical receptive fields. The currently popular simple recurrent nets have only one kind of dynamical component: a capacitor, or time constant. Though it is possible to create any kind of dynamics using capacitors and static non-linearities, it is also possible to write any program on a Turing machine. 59 60 Bell Biological evolution, it seems, has elected for diversity and complexity over uniformity and simplicity in choosing voltage-dependent ion channels as the 'instruction set' for dynamical computation. 1.2 ION CHANNELS As more ion channels with varying kinetics are discovered, the question of their computational role has become more pertinent. Figure 1, derived from a model thalamic cell, shows the log time constants of 11 currents, plotted against the voltage ranges over which they activate or inactivate. The variety of available kinetics is probably under-represented here since a combinatorial number of differences can be obtained by combining different protein sub-domains to make a channel [6]. Given the likelihood that channels are inhomogenously distributed throughout the dendrites [7], one way to tackle the question of their computational role is to search for a self-organisational principle for forming this distribution. Such a 'learning rule' could be construed as operating during development or dynamically during the life of an organism, and could be considered complementary to learning involvThe'U 1 . . . . - - . - - - - - , - - , - - - - - ? - - - , - - - -? ing synaptic changes. resulting distribution and mix! ",.-... ~ of channels would then be, in] / "-.'" II' M some sense, optimal for integrat- : ing and communicating the par- ~ ticular high-dimensional spatia- 10- 1 temporal inputs which the cell was accustomed to receiving. 1 Figure 1: Diversity of ion channel kinetics. The voltagedependent equilibrium log time constants of 11 channels are plotted here for the voltage ranges for which their activation (or inactivation) variables go from 0.1 ~ 0.9 (or 0.9 ~ 0.1). The channel kinetics are taken from a model by W.Lytton [10]. Notice the range of speeds of operation from the spiking N a+ channel around O.lms, to the J{M channel in the Is (cognitive) range. 10- 2 10- 3 ............. W' ......... "'. No act. -100 VR?ST -50 o 50 Membrane potential (mV) 2 THE BIOPHYSICAL SUBSTRATE The substrate for self-organisation is the standard cable model for a dendrite or axon: (1 ) Anti-Hebb in 'Channel Space'? In this Go represents the conductance along the axis of the cable, C is the capacitance and the two sums represent synaptic (indexed by j) and intrinsic (indexed by k) currents. G is a maximum conductance (a channel density or 'weight'), 9 is the time-varying fraction of the conductance active, and E is a reversal potential. The system can be summarised by saying that the current flow out of a segment of a neuron is equal to the sum of currents input to that segment, plus the capacitive charging of the membrane. This leads to a simpler form: i = L:9j ij + L:9kik j (2) k = Here, i 02V lox 2, gj = Gj IG a , ij = gj(V -Ej) and C is considered as an intrinsic conductance whose 9k and ik are CIG a and oV lot respectively. In this form, it is more clear that each part of a neuron can be considered as a 'unit', diffusively coupled to its neighbours, to which it passes its weighted sum of inputs. The weights excitatory channels synaptic inhibitory channels leakage rohannels capacitive aeDibrane charging Blectrodiffusive spread ~ Figure 1: A compartment of a neuron, shown schematically and as a circuit. The cable equation is just Kirchoff's Law: current in = current out 9k' representing the Go-normalised densities of channel species k, are considered to span channel space, as opposed to the 9j weights which are our standard synaptic strength parameters. Parameters determining the dynamics of gk's specify points in kinetics space. Neuromodulation [8], a universally important phenomenon in real nervous systems, consists of specific chemicals inducing short-term changes in the kinetics space co-ordinates of a channel type, resulting, for example, in shifts in the curves in Figure 1. 3 THEARGUMENTFORANT~HEBB Learning algorithms, of the type successful in static systems, have not been considered for these low-level dynamical components (though see [2] for approaches to synaptic learning in realistic systems). Here, we address the issue of unsupervised learning for channel densities. In the neural network literature, unsupervised learning consists of Hebbian-type algorithms and information theoretic approaches based on objective functions [1]. In the absence of a good information theoretic framework for continuous time, non-Gaussian analog systems where noise is undefined, we resort to exploring the implications of the effects of simple local rules. 61 62 Bell The most obvious rule following from equation 2 would be a correlational one of the following form, with the learning rate f positive or negative: ~9k fiki (3) While a polarising (or Hebbian) rule (see Figure 3) makes sense for synaptic channels as an a method for amplifying input signals, it makes less sense for intrinsic channels. Were it to operate on such channels, statistical fluctuations from the uniform channel distribution would give rise to self-reinforcing 'hot-spots' with no underlying 'signal' to amplify. For this reason, we investigate the utility of a rectifying (or anti-Hebbian) rule. = Figure 3: A schematic display showing contingent positive and negative voltage curvatures (?i) above a segment of neuron, and inward and outward currents (?ik), through a particular channel type. In situations (a) and (b), a Hebbian version of Equation 3 will raise the channel density (9k T), and in (c) and (d) an anti-Hebbian rule will do this. In the first two cases, the channels are polarising the membrane potential, creating high voltage curvature, while in the latter two, they are rectifying (or flattening) it. Depending on the sign of f, equation 3 attempts to either maximise or minimise (8 2 V /8x 2 )2. 4 ",,~ -?' I -ve '--- I (a) gJ if E i (c) k '9J if Is +ve k+ ve ~ (b) '9J if (d) ;J E Is +ve -ve E is -ve If E is -ve EXAMPLES For the purposes of demonstration, linear RLC electrical components are often used here. These simple 'intrinsic' (non-synaptic) components have the most tractable kinetics of any, and as shown by [11] and [9], the impedances they create capture some of the properties of active membrane. The components are leakage resistances, capacitances and inductances, whose 9k'S are given by 1/ R, C and 1/ L respectively. During learning, all 9k's were kept above zero for reasons of stability. 4.1 LEARNING RESONANCE In this experiment, an RLC 'compartment' with no frequency preference was stimulated at a certain frequency and trained according to equation 3 with f negative. After training, the frequency response curve of the circuit had a resonant peak at the training frequency (Figure 4). This result is significant since many auditory and tactile sensory cells are tuned to certain frequencies, and we know that a major comp onent of the tuning is electrical, with resonances created by particular balances of ion channel populations [13]. Anti-Hebb in 'Channel Space'? It ......I.' ..'.', ... ..NVV sin 0.4t ... k '.- + f ... o? Figure 4: Learning resonance. The curves show the frequency-response curves of the compartment before and after training at a frequency of 0.4. 4.2 LEARNING CONDUCTION Another role that intrinsic channels must play within a cell is the faithful transmission of information. Any voltage curvatures at a point away from a synapse signify a net cross membrane current which can be seen as distorting the signal in the cable. Thus, by removing voltage curvatures, we preserve the signal. This is demonstrated 5 ,, , .:!.-1'_____-= ~tnlli 4- , ,, 3 _ , ,, , 2 _ =----- -~ - _ :'Ni.f\V.0S(~\lf\~ ~_ ~f.\V.l\V.r.J!.f\\lf\~ ~ j: =~=:WJ\~W~\(~ ) LJ LJ LJ l/ LJ l/ l/ , l/ ~t) l~t Figure 5: Learning conduction. The cable consists of a chain of compartments, which only conduct the impulse after they acquire active channels. in the following example: 'learning to be an axon'. A non-linear spiking compartment with Morris-Lecar Cal J{ kinetics (see [14]) is coupled to a long passive cable. Before learning, the signal decays passively in the cable (Figure 5). The driving compartment ?i-vector, and the capacitances in the cable are then clamped to stop the system from converging on the null solution (g -+ 0). All other g's (including spiking conductances in the cable) can then learn. The first thing learnt was that the inward and outward leakage conductances (?it and ?i"l) adjusted themselves to make the average voltage curvature in each compartment zero (just as bias units in error correction algorithms adjust to make the average error zero). Then the cable filled out with Morris-Lecar channels (9Ca and gK) in exactly the same ratios as the driving compartment, resulting in a cable that faithfully propagated the signal. 63 64 Bell 4.3 LEARNING PHASE-SHIFTING (DIRECTION SELECTIVITY) The last example involves 4 'sensory' compartments coupled to a 'somatic' compartment as in Figure 6. All are similar to the linear compartments in the resonance example except that the sensory ones receive 'synaptic' input in the form of a sinusoidal current source. The relative phases of the input were shifted to simulate left-to-right motion. After training, the 'dendritic' components had learned, using their capacitors and inductors, to cancel the phase shifts so that the inputs were synchronised in their effect on the 'soma'. This creates a large response in the trained direction, and a small one in the 'null' direction, as the phases cancelled each other. ----------------------- ." --~ ?? ", " !- .... _ ...... - ??, . ' , :,:: trained - - - - - - . - . direction ..._ _ _ _ _ _ null ,-- -- - -- - -- - - - -- ---- - ------. direction Figure 6: Learning direction selectivity. After training on a drifting sine wave, the output compartment oscillates for the trained direction but not for the null direction (see the trace, where the direction of motion is reversed halfway). 5 DISCUSSION 5.1 CELLULAR MECHANISMS There is substantial evidence in cell biology for targeting of proteins to specific parts of the membrane, but the fact that equation 3 is dependent on the correlation of channel species' activity and local voltages leaves only 4 possible biological im plementations: 1. the cellular targeting machinery knows what kind of channel it is delivering, and thus knows where to put it 2, channels in the wrong place are degraded faster than those in the right place 3. channels migrate to the right place while in the membrane 4. the effective channel density is altered by activity-dependent neuromodulation or channel-blockage The third is perhaps the most intriguing. The diffusion of channels in the plane of the membrane, under the influence of induced electric fields has received both theoretical [4, 12] and empirical [7, 3] attention. To a first approximation, the Anti-Hebb in 'Channel Space'? evolution of channel densities can be described by a Smoluchowski equation: ay" at = a a2 g" ax 2 (g aV) ax "ax + b~ (4) where a is the coefficient of thermal diffusion and b is the coefficient of field induced motion. This system has been studied previously [4] to explain receptor-clustering in synapse formation, but if the sign of b is reversed, then it fits more closely with the anti-Hebbian rule discussed here. The crucial requirement for true activitydependence, though, is that b should be different when the channel is open than when it is closed. This may be plausible since channel gating involves movements of charges across the membrane. Coefficients of thermal diffusion have been measured and found not to exceed 10- 9 cm/sec. This would be enough to fine-tune channel distributions, but not to transport them all the way down dendrites. The second method in the list is also an attractive possibility. The half-life of membrane proteins can be as low as several hours [3], and it is known that proteins can be differentially labeled for recycling [5]. 5.2 ENERGY AND INFORMATION The anti- Hebbian rule changes g" 's in order to minimise the square membrane current density, integrated over the cell in units of axial conductance. This corresponds in two senses to a minimisation of energy. From a circuit perspective, the energy dissipated in the axial resistances is minimised. From a metabolic perspective, the ATP used in pumping ions back across the membrane is minimised. The computation consists of minimising the expected value of this energy, given particular spatiotemporal synaptic input (assuming no change in 9j'S). More precisely, it searches for: (5) This search creates mutual information between input dynamics and intrinsic dynamics. In addition, since the Laplacian (\7; V = 0) is what a diffusive system seeks to converge to anyway, the learning rule simply configures the system to speed this convergence on frequently experienced inputs. Simple zero-energy solutions exist for the above, for example the 'ultra-leaky' compartment (gl - l (0) and the 'point' (or non-existent) compartment (g" - l 0, Vk), for compartments with and without synapses respectively. The anti-Hebb rule alone will eventually converge to such solutions, unless, for example, the leakage or capacitance are prevented from learning. Another solution (which has been successfully used for the direction selectivity example) is to make the total available quantity of each g" finite. The g" can then diffuse about between compartments, following the voltage gradients in a manner suggested by equation 4. The resulting behaviour is a finite-resource version of equation 3. The next goal of this work is to produce a rigorous information theoretic account of single neuron computation. This is seen as a pre-requisite to understanding both neural coding and the computational capabilities of neural circuits, and as a step on the way to properly dynamical neural nets. 6S 66 Bell Acknowledgements This work was supported by a Belgian government IMPULS contract and by ESPRIT Basic Research Action 3234. Thanks to Prof. L. Steels for his support and to Prof T. Sejnowski his hospitality at the Salk Institute where some of this work was done. References [1] Becker S. 1990. Unsupervised learning procedures for neural networks, Int. J. Neur. Sys. [2] Brown T., Mainen Z. et al. 1990. in NIPS 3, 39-45. Computation, vol 4 to appear. Mel B. 1991. in Neural [3] Darnell J., Lodish H. & Baltimore D. 1990. Molecular Cell Biology, Scientific American Books [4] Fromherz P. 1988. Self-organization of the fluid mosaic of charged channel proteins in membranes, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 85, 6353-6357 [5] Hare J. 1990. Mechanisms of membrane protein turnover, Biochim. Biophys. Acta, 1031,71-90 [6] Hille B. 1992. Ionic channels of excitable membranes, 2nd edition, Sinauer Associates Inc., Sunderland, MA [7] Jones O. et al. 1989. Science 244, 1189-1193. Lo Y-J. & Poo M-M. 1991. Science 254, 1019-1022. Stollberg J. & Fraser S. 1990. 1. Neurosci. 10, 1, 247-255. Angelides K. 1990. Prog. in Clin. fj Bioi. Res. 343, 199-212 [8] Kaczmarek L. & Levitan I. 1987. Neuromodulation, Oxford Univ. Press [9] Koch c. 1984. Cable theory in neurons with active linearized membranes, Bioi. Cybern. 50, 15-33 [10] Lytton W. 1991. Simulations of cortical pyramidal neurons synchronized by inhibitory interneurons 1. Neurophysiol. 66, 3, 1059-1079 [11] Mauro A. Conti F. Dodge F. & Schor R. 1970. Subthreshold behaviour and phenomenological impedance of the giant squid axon, J. Gen. Physiol. 55, 497523 [12] Poo M-M. & Young S. 1990. Diffusional and electrokinetic redistribution at the synapse: a physicochemical basis of synaptic competition, 1. Neurobiol. 21, 1, 157-168 [13] Puil E. et al. 1. Neurophysiol. 55,5 . . Ashmore J.F. & Attwell D. 1985. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 226, 325-344. Hudspeth A. & Lewis R. 1988. 1. Physiol. 400, 275-297. [14] Rinzel J. & Ermentrout G. 1989. Analysis of Neural Excitability and Oscillations, in Koch C. & Segev I. (eds) 1989. Methods in Neuronal Modeling, MIT Press
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Asynchronous Anytime Sequential Monte Carlo Arnaud Doucet Yee Whye Teh Department of Statistics University of Oxford Oxford, UK {doucet,y.w.teh}@stats.ox.ac.uk Brooks Paige Frank Wood Department of Engineering Science University of Oxford Oxford, UK {brooks,fwood}@robots.ox.ac.uk Abstract We introduce a new sequential Monte Carlo algorithm we call the particle cascade. The particle cascade is an asynchronous, anytime alternative to traditional sequential Monte Carlo algorithms that is amenable to parallel and distributed implementations. It uses no barrier synchronizations which leads to improved particle throughput and memory efficiency. It is an anytime algorithm in the sense that it can be run forever to emit an unbounded number of particles while keeping within a fixed memory budget. We prove that the particle cascade provides an unbiased marginal likelihood estimator which can be straightforwardly plugged into existing pseudo-marginal methods. 1 Introduction Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) inference techniques require blocking barrier synchronizations at resampling steps which limit parallel throughput and are costly in terms of memory. We introduce a new asynchronous anytime sequential Monte Carlo algorithm that has statistical efficiency competitive with standard SMC algorithms and has sufficiently higher particle throughput such that it is on balance more efficient per unit computation time. Our approach uses locally-computed decision rules for each particle that do not require block synchronization of all particles, instead only sharing of summary statistics with particles that follow. In our algorithm each resampling point acts as a queue rather than a barrier: each particle chooses the number of its own offspring by comparing its own weight to the weights of particles which previously reached the queue, blocking only to update summary statistics before proceeding. An anytime algorithm is an algorithm that can be run continuously, generating progressively better solutions when afforded additional computation time. Traditional particle-based inference algorithms are not anytime in nature; all particles need to be propagated in lock-step to completion in order to compute expectations. Once a particle set runs to termination, inference cannot straightforwardly be continued by simply doing more computation. The na??ve strategy of running SMC again and merging the resulting sets of particles is suboptimal due to bias (see [12] for explanation). Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (i.e. particle Metropolis Hastings and iterated conditional sequential Monte Carlo (iCSMC) [1]) for correctly merging particle sets produced by additional SMC runs are closer to anytime in nature but suffer from burstiness as big sets of particles are computed then emitted at once and, fundamentally, the inner-SMC loop of such algorithms still suffers the kind of excessive synchronization performance penalty that the particle cascade directly avoids. Our asynchronous SMC algorithm, the particle cascade, is anytime in nature. The particle cascade can be run indefinitely, without resorting to merging of particle sets. 1.1 Related work Our algorithm shares a superficial similarity to Bernoulli branching numbers [5] and other search and exploration methods used for particle filtering, where each particle samples some number of 1 children to propagate to the next observation. Like the particle cascade, the total number of particles which exist at each generation is allowed to gradually increase and decrease. However, computing branching correction numbers is generally a synchronous operation, requiring all particle weights to be known in order to choose an appropriate number of offspring; nor are these methods anytime. Sequentially interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo [2] is an anytime algorithm, which although conceptually similar to SMC has different synchronization properties. Parallelizing the resampling step of sequential Monte Carlo methods has drawn increasing recent interest as the effort progresses to scale up algorithms to take advantage of high-performance computing systems and GPUs. Removing the global collective resampling operation [9] is a particular focus for improving performance. Running arbitrarily many particles within a fixed memory budget can also be addressed by tracking random number seeds used to generate proposals, allowing particular particles to be deterministically ?replayed? [7]. However, this approach is not asynchronous nor anytime. 2 Background We begin by briefly reviewing sequential Monte Carlo as generally formulated on state-space models. Suppose we have a non-Markovian dynamical system with latent random variables X0 , . . . , XN and observed random variables Y0 , . . . , YN described by the joint density p(xn |x0:n?1 , y0:n?1 ) = f (xn |x0:n?1 ) p(yn |x0:n , y0:n?1 ) = g(yn |x0:n ), (1) where X0 is drawn from some initial distribution ?(?), and f and g are conditional densities. Given observed values Y0:N = y0:N , the posterior distribution p(x0:n |y0:n ) is approximated by a k weighted set of K particles, with each particle k denoted X0:n for k = 1, . . . , K. Particles are propagated forward from proposal densities q(xn |x0:n?1 ) and re-weighted at each n = 1, . . . , N k k Xnk |X0:n?1 ? q(xn |X0:n?1 ) wnk = Wnk = k k g(yn |X0:n )f (Xnk |X0:n?1 ) k k q(Xn |X0:n?1 ) k Wn?1 wnk , (2) (3) (4) where wnk is the weight associated with observation yn and Wnk is the unnormalized weight of particle k after observation n. It is assumed that exact evaluation of p(x0:N |y0:N ) is intractable and k that the likelihoods g(yn |X0:n ) can be evaluated pointwise. In many complex dynamical systems, k ) may be prohibitively costly or even or in black-box simulation models, evaluation of f (Xnk |X0:n?1 impossible. As long as one is capable of simulating from the system, the proposal distribution can be k chosen as q(?) ? f (?), in which case the particle weights are simply wnk = g(yn |X0:n ), eliminating the need to compute the densities f (?). PK The normalized particle weights ? ? nk = Wnk / j=1 Wnj are used to approximate the posterior p?(x0:n |y0:n ) ? K X ? ? nk ?X0:n k (x0:n ). (5) k=1 In the very simple sequential importance sampling setup described here, the marginal likelihood can PK 1 k be estimated by p?(y0:n ) = K k=1 Wn . 2.1 Resampling and degeneracy The algorithm described above suffers from a degeneracy problem wherein most of the normalized weights ? ? n1 , . . . , ? ? nK become very close to zero for even moderately large n. Traditionally this is combated by introducing a resampling step: as we progress from n to n + 1, particles with high weights are duplicated and particles with low weights are discarded, preventing all the probability mass in our approximation to the posterior from accumulating on a single particle. A resampling 2 k scheme is an algorithm for selecting the number of offspring particles Mn+1 that each particle k will produce after stage n. Many different schemes for resampling particles exist; see [6] for an overview. Resampling changes the weights of particles: as the system progresses from n to n + 1, k k each of the Mn+1 children are assigned a new weight Vn+1 , replacing the previous weight Wnk prior k to resampling. Most resampling schemes generate an unweighted set of particles with Vn+1 = 1 for all particles. When a resampling step is added at every n, the marginal likelihood can be estimated Qn 1 PK k by p?(y0:n ) = i=0 K k=1 wi ; this estimate of the marginal likelihood is unbiased [8]. 2.2 Synchronization and limitations Our goal is to scale up to very large numbers of particles, using a parallel computing architecture where each particle is simulated as a separate process or thread. In order to resample at each n we must compute the normalized weights ? ? nk , requiring us to wait until all individual particles have both finished forward simulation and computed their individual weight Wnk before the normalization and resampling required for any to proceed. While the forward simulation itself is trivially parallelizable, the weight normalization and resampling step is a synchronous, collective operation. In practice this can lead to significant underuse of computing resources in a multiprocessor environment, hindering our ability to scale up to large numbers of particles. Memory limitations on finite computing hardware also limit the number of simultaneous particles we are capable of running in practice. All particles must move through the system together, simultaneously; if the total memory requirements of particles is greater than the available system RAM, then a substantial overhead will be incurred from swapping memory contents to disk. 3 The Particle Cascade The particle cascade algorithm we introduce addresses both these limitations: it does not require synchronization, and keeps only a bounded number of particles alive in the system at any given time. Instead of resampling, we will consider particle branching, where each particle may produce 0 or more offspring. These branching events happen asynchronously and mutually exclusively, i.e. they are processed one at a time. 3.1 Local branching decisions At each stage n of sequential Monte Carlo, particles process observation yn . Without loss of generality, we can define an ordering on the particles 1, 2, . . . in the order they arrive at yn . We keep track of the running average weight W kn of the first k particles to arrive at observation yn in an online manner W kn = Wnk k ? 1 k?1 1 k W kn = W n + Wn k k for k = 1, (6) for k = 2, 3, . . . . (7) The number of children of particle k depends on the weight Wnk of particle k relative to those of other particles. Particles with higher relative weight are more likely to be located in a high posterior probability part of the space, and should be allowed to spawn more child particles. In our online asynchronous particle system we do not have access to the weights of future particles when processing particle k. Instead we will compare Wnk to the current average weight W kn among k , will particles processed thus far. Specifically, the number of children, which we denote by Mn+1 depend on the ratio Rnk = Wnk . W kn (8) k Each child of particle k will be assigned a weight Vn+1 such that the total weight of all children k k k Mn+1 Vn+1 has expectation Wn . There is a great deal of flexibility available in designing a scheme for choosing the number of child k k particles; we need only be careful to set Vn+1 appropriately. Informally, we would like Mn+1 to 3 k k be large when Rnk is large. If Mn+1 is sampled in such a way that E[Mn+1 ] = Rnk , then we set k k the outgoing weight Vn+1 = W n . Alternatively, if we are using a scheme which deterministically k k k guarantees Mn+1 > 0, then we set Vn+1 = Wnk /Mn+1 . k A simple approach would be to sample Mn+1 independently conditioned on the weights. In such k schemes we could draw each Mn+1 from some simple distribution, e.g. a Poisson distribution with mean Rnk , or a discrete distribution over the integers {bRnk c, dRnk e}. However, one issue that arises in such approaches where the number of children for each particle is conditionally independent is that the variance of the total number of particles at each generation can grow faster than desirable. Suppose we start the system with K0 particles. The number of particles at subsequent stages n is PKn?1 k given recursively as Kn = k=1 Mn . We would like to avoid situations in which the number of particles becomes too large, or collapses to 1. Instead, we will allow Mnk to depend on the number of children of previous particles at n, in such a way that we can stabilize the total number of particles in each generation. Suppose that we wish for the number of particles to be stabilized around K0 . After k ? 1 particles have been processed, we expect the total number of children produced at that point to be approximately k ? 1, so that if the number is less than k ? 1 we should allow particle k to produce more children, and vice versa. Similarly, if we already currently have more than K0 children, we should allow particle k to produce fewer children. We use a simple scheme which satisfies these criteria, where the number of particles is chosen at random when Rnk < 1, and set deterministically when Rnk ? 1 ? k k ? ?(0, 0) w.p. 1 ? Rn , if Rn < 1; ? ? k k k ?(1, W n ) w.p. Rn , if Rn < 1; k k Pk?1 j (Mn+1 , Vn+1 )= (9) Wnk k (bRn c, bRk c ) if Rnk ? 1 and j=1 Mn+1 > min(K0 , k ? 1); ? ? n ? k P ? k?1 j ?(dRk e, Wn ) if Rnk ? 1 and j=1 Mn+1 ? min(K0 , k ? 1). n dRk e n As the number of particles becomes large, the estimated average weight closely approximates the true average weight. Were we to replace the deterministic rounding with a Bernoulli(Rnk ? bRnk c) choice between {bRnk c, dRnk e}, then this decision rule defines the same distribution on the number k of offspring particles Mn+1 as the well-known systematic resampling procedure [3, 9]. Note the anytime nature of this algorithm ? any given particle passing through the system needs Pk?1 j only the running average W kn and the preceding child particle counts j=1 Mn+1 in order to make local branching decisions, not the previous particles themselves. Thus it is possible to run this algorithm for some fixed number of initial particles K0 , inspect the output of the completed particles which have left the system, and decide whether to continue by initializing additional particles. 3.2 Computing expectations and marginal likelihoods Samples drawn from the particle cascade can be used to compute expectations in the same manPKn ner as usual; that is, given some function ?(?), we normalize weights ? ? nk = Wnk / j=1 Wnj and PKn k k approximate the posterior expectation by E[?(X0:n )|y0:n ] ? k=1 ? ? n ?(X0:n ). We can also use the particle cascade to define an estimator of the marginal likelihood p(y0:n ), p?(y0:n ) = Kn 1 X Wnk . K0 (10) k=1 The form of this estimate is fairly distinct Qn from the standard SMC estimators in Section 2. One can think of p?(y0:n ) as p?(y0:n ) = p?(y0 ) i=1 p?(yi |y0:i?1 ) where PKn K0 k 1 X k k=1 Wn for n ? 1. (11) p?(y0 ) = W0 , p?(yn |y0:n?1 ) = PKn?1 k K0 k=1 Wn?1 k=1 Note that the incrementally updated running averages W kn are very directly tied to the marginal k n likelihood estimate; that is, p?(y0:n ) = K K0 W n . 4 3.3 Theoretical properties, unbiasedness, and consistency Under weak assumptions we can show that the marginal likelihood estimator p?(y0:n ) defined in Eq. 10 is unbiased, and that both its variance and L2 errors of estimates of reasonable posterior expectations decrease in the number of particle initializations as 1/K0 . Note that because the cascade is an anytime algorithm K0 may be increased simply, without restarting inference. Detailed proofs are given in the supplemental material; statements of the results are provided here. Denote by B(E) the space of bounded real-valued functions on a space E, and suppose each Xn is an X -valued random variable. Assume the Bernoulli(Rnk ? bRnk c) version of the resampling rule in Eq. 9, and further assume that g(yn |?, y0:n?1 ) : X n+1 ? R is in B(X n+1 ) and strictly positive. Finally assume that the ordering in which particles arrive at each n is a random permutation of the particle index set, conditions which we state precisely in the supplemental material. Then the following propositions hold: Proposition 1 (Unbiasedness of marginal likelihood estimate) For any K0 ? 1 and n ? 0 E [? p(y0:n )] = p(y0:n ). (12) Proposition 2 (Variance of marginal likelihood estimate) For any n ? 0, there exists a constant an < ? such that for any K0 ? 1 an . (13) V [? p(y0:n )] ? K0 Proposition 3 (L2 error bounds)  For any n ? 0, there exists a constant an < ? such that for any K0 ? 1 and any ?n ? B X n+1 ?( ! Z )2 ? Kn X an 2 k E? ? ? nk ?n (X0:n ) ? p(dx0:n |y0:n )?n (x0:n ) ? ? k?n k . (14) K0 k=1 Additional results and proofs can be found in the supplemental material. 4 Active bounding of memory usage In an idealized computational environment, with infinite available memory, our implementation of the particle cascade could begin by launching (a very large number) K0 particles simultaneously which then gradually propagate forward through the system. In practice, only some finite number of particles, probably much smaller than K0 , can be simultaneously simulated efficiently. Furthermore, the initial particles are not truly launched all at once, but rather in a sequence, introducing a dependency in the order in which particles arrive at each observation n. Our implementation of the particle cascade addresses these issues by explicitly injecting randomness into the execution order of particles, and by imposing a machine-dependent hard cap on the number of simultaneous extant processes. This permits us to run our particle filter system indefinitely, for arbitrarily large and, in fact, growing initial particle counts K0 , on fixed commodity hardware. Each particle in our implementation runs as an independent operating system process [11]. In order to efficiently run a large number of particles, we impose a hard limit ? on the total number of particles which can simultaneously exist in the particle system; most of these will generally be sleeping processes. The ideal choice for this number will vary based on hardware capabilities, but in general should be made as large as possible. Scheduling across particles is managed via a global first-in random-out process queue of length ?; this can equivalently be conceptualized as a random-weight priority queue. Each particle corresponds to a single live process, augmented by a single additional control process which is responsible only for spawning additional initial particles (i.e. incrementing the initial particle count K0 ). When any particle k arrives at any likelihood evaluation n, it computes its target number of child partik k k cles Mn+1 and outgoing particle weight Vn+1 . If Mn+1 = 0 it immediately terminates; otherwise it enters the queue. Once this particle either enters the queue or terminates, some other process 5 0 2 10 10 SMC Particle Cascade No resampling iCSMC -1 MSE 10 1 10 -2 10 0 10 -3 10 -4 10 -1 1 10 2 3 10 10 4 10 5 10 1 10 2 10 3 10 4 10 5 10 ?80 ?120 ^(y0 :N) log p 10 ?90 ?140 ?100 ?160 True value SMC Particle Cascade No resampling ?110 ?120 ?180 ?130 1 10 2 3 10 10 4 10 5 10 1 10 HMM: # of particles 2 10 3 10 4 10 5 10 Linear Gaussian: # of particles Figure 1: All results are reported over multiple independent replications, shown here as independent lines. (top) Convergence of estimates to ground truth vs. number of particles, shown as (left) MSE of marginal probabilities of being in each state for every observation n in the HMM, and (right) MSE of the latent expected position in the linear Gaussian state space model. (bottom) Convergence of marginal likelihood estimates to the ground truth value (marked by a red dashed line), for (left) the HMM, and (right) the linear Gaussian model. continues execution ? this process is chosen uniformly at random, and as such may be a sleeping particle at any stage n < N , or it may instead be the control process which then launches a new particle. At any given time, there are some number of particles K? < ? currently in the queue, and so the probability of resuming any particular individual particle, or of launching a new particle, is 1/(K? + 1). If the particle released from the queue has exactly one child to spawn, it advances to the next observation and repeats the resampling process. If, however, a particle has more than one child particle to spawn, rather than launching all child particles at once it launches a single particle to simulate forward, decrements the total number of particles left to launch by one, and itself re-enters the queue. The system is initialized by seeding the system with a number of initial particles ?0 < ? at n = 0, creating ?0 active initial processes. The ideal choice for the process count constraint ? may vary across operating systems and hardware. In the event that the process count is fully saturated (i.e. the process queue is full), then we forcibly prevent particles from duplicating themselves and creating new children. If we release a particle from the queue which seeks to launch m > 1 additional particles when the queue is full, we instead collapse all the remaining particles into a single particle; this single particle represents a virtual set of particles, but does not create a new process and requires no additional CPU or memory resources. We keep track of a particle count multiplier Cnk that we propagate forward along with the particle. All particles are initialized with C0k = 1, and then when a particle collapse takes place, update their multiplier at n + 1 to mCnk . This affects the way in which running weight averages are computed; suppose a new particle k arrives with multiplier Cnk and weight Wnk . We incorporate all these values into the average weight immediately, and update W kn taking into account the multiplicity, with W kn = k?1 Cnk W k?1 + Wk n k k + Cn ? 1 k + Cnk ? 1 n for k = 2, 3, . . .. (15) This does not affect the computation of the ratio Rnk . We preserve the particle multiplier, until we reach the final n = N ; then, after all forward simulation is complete, we re-incorporate the particle k k multiplicity when reporting the final particle weight WNk = CN VNk wN . 5 Experiments We report experiments on performing inference in two simple state space models, each with N = 50 observations, in order to demonstrate the overall validity and utility of the particle cascade algorithm. 6 0 2 10 10 SMC Particle Cascade No resampling iCSMC -1 MSE 10 1 10 -2 10 0 10 -3 10 -4 10 -1 0 10 1 10 2 10 10 3 10 2 10 3 10 10 ?80 ?120 ^(y0 :N) log p 1 0 10 ?90 ?140 ?100 ?160 True value SMC Particle Cascade No resampling ?110 ?120 ?180 ?130 0 10 1 10 2 10 3 1 0 10 2 10 10 HMM: Time (seconds) 3 10 10 Linear Gaussian: Time (seconds) Figure 2: (top) Comparative convergence rates between SMC alternatives including our new algorithm, and (bottom) estimation of marginal likelihood, by time. Results are shown for (left) the hidden Markov model, and (right) the linear Gaussian state space model. These experiments are not designed to stresstest the particle cascade; rather, they are designed to show that performance of the particle cascade closely approximates that of fully synchronous SMC algorithms, even in a small-data small-complexity regime where we expect their performance to be very good. In addition to comparing to standard SMC, we also compare to a worst-case particle filter in which we never resample, instead propagating particles forward deterministically with a single child particle at every n. While the statistical (per-sample) efficiency of this approach is quite poor, it is fully parallelizable with no blocking operations in the algorithm at all, and thus provides a ceiling estimate of the raw sampling speed attainable in our overall implementation. Time per sample (ms) The first is a hidden Markov model (HMM) with 10 latent discrete states, each with an associated Gaussian emission distribution; the second a one-dimensional linear Gaussian model. Note that using these models means that we can compute posterior marginals at each n and the marginal likelihood Z = p(y0:N ) exactly. 40 Particle Cascade No Resampling Iterated CSMC SMC 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2 4 8 16 32 # of cores Figure 3: Average time to draw a single complete particle on a variety of machine architectures. Queueing rather than blocking at each observation improves performance, and appears to improve relative performance even more as the available compute resources increase. Note that this plot shows only average time per sample, not a measure of statistical efficiency. The high speed of the non-resampling algorithm is not sufficient to make it competitive with the other approaches. We also benchmark against what we believe to be the most practically competitive similar approach, iterated conditional SMC [1]. Iterated conditional SMC corresponds to the particle Gibbs algorithm in the case where parameter values are known; by using a particle filter sweep as a step within a larger MCMC algorithm, iCSMC provides a statistically valid approach to sampling from a posterior distribution by repeatedly running sequential Monte Carlo sweeps each with a fixed number of particles. One downside to iCSMC is that it does not provide an estimate of the marginal likelihood. In all benchmarks, we propose from the prior distribution, with q(xn |?) ? f (xn |x0:n?1 ); the SMC and iCSMC benchmarks use a multinomial resampling scheme. On both these models we see the statistical efficiency of the particle cascade is approximately in line with synchronous SMC, slightly outperforming the iCSMC algorithm and significantly outperform7 ing the fully parallelized non-resampling approach. This suggests that the approximations made by computing weights at each n based on only the previously observed particles, and the total particle count limit imposed by ?, do not have an adverse effect on overall performance. In Fig. 1 we plot convergence per particle to the true posterior distribution, as well as convergence in our estimate of the normalizing constant. 5.1 Performance and scalability Although values will be implementation-dependent, we are ultimately interested not in per-sample efficiency but rather in our rate of convergence over time. We record wall clock time for each algorithm for both of these models; the results for convergence of our estimates of values and marginal likelihood are shown in Fig. 2. These particular experiments were all run on Amazon EC2, in an 8-core environment with Intel Xeon E5-2680 v2 processors. The particle cascade provides a much faster and more accurate estimate of the marginal likelihood than the competing methods, in both models. Convergence in estimates of values is quick as well, faster than the iCSMC approach. We note that for very small numbers of particles, running a simple particle filter is faster than the particle cascade, despite the blocking nature of the resampling step. This is due to the overhead incurred by the particle cascade in sending an initial flurry of ?0 particles into the system before we see any particles progress to the end; this initial speed advantage diminishes as the number of samples increases. Furthermore, in stark contrast to the simple SMC method, there are no barriers to drawing more samples from the particle cascade indefinitely. On this fixed hardware environment, our implementation of SMC, which aggressively parallelizes all forward particle simulations, exhibits a dramatic loss of performance as the number of particles increases from 104 to 105 , to the point where simultaneously running 105 particles is simply not possible in a feasible amount of time. We are also interested in how the particle cascade scales up to larger hardware, or down to smaller hardware. A comparison across five hardware configurations is shown in Fig. 3. 6 Discussion The particle cascade has broad applicability to all SMC and particle filtering inference applications. For example, constructing an appropriate sequence of densities for SMC is possible in arbitrary probabilistic graphical models, including undirected graphical models; see e.g. the sequential decomposition approach of [10]. We are particularly motivated by the SMC-based probabilistic programming systems that have recently appeared in the literature [13, 11]. Both suggested that the primary performance bottleneck in their inference algorithms was barrier synchronization, something we have done away with entirely. What is more, while particle MCMC methods are particularly appropriate when there is a clear boundary that can be exploited between between parameters of interest and nuisance state variables, in probabilistic programming in particular, parameter values must be generated as part of the state trajectory itself, leaving no explicitly denominated latent parameter variables per se. The particle cascade is particularly relevant in such situations. Finally, as the particle cascade yields an unbiased estimate of the marginal likelihood it can be plugged directly into PIMH, SMC2 [4], and other existing pseudo-marginal methods. Acknowledgments Yee Whye Teh?s research leading to these results has received funding from EPSRC (grant EP/K009362/1) and the ERC under the EU?s FP7 Programme (grant agreement no. 617411). Arnaud Doucet?s research is partially funded by EPSRC (grants EP/K009850/1 and EP/K000276/1). Frank Wood is supported under DARPA PPAML through the U.S. AFRL under Cooperative Agreement number FA8750-14-2-0004. The U.S. Government is authorized to reproduce and distribute reprints for Governmental purposes notwithstanding any copyright notation heron. The views and conclusions contained herein are those of the authors and should be not interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies or endorsements, either expressed or implied, of DARPA, the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory or the U.S. Government. 8 References [1] Christophe Andrieu, Arnaud Doucet, and Roman Holenstein. Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 72(3):269?342, 2010. [2] Anthony Brockwell, Pierre Del Moral, and Arnaud Doucet. Sequentially interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Annals of Statistics, 38(6):3387?3411, 2010. [3] James Carpenter, Peter Clifford, and Paul Fearnhead. An improved particle filter for non-linear problems. Radar, Sonar and Navigation, IEE Proceedings -, 146(1):2?7, Feb 1999. [4] Nicolas Chopin, Pierre E Jacob, and Omiros Papaspiliopoulos. SMC2 : an efficient algorithm for sequential analysis of state space models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 75(3):397?426, 2013. [5] D. Crisan, P. Del Moral, and T. Lyons. Discrete filtering using branching and interacting particle systems. Markov Process. Related Fields, 5(3):293?318, 1999. [6] Randal Douc, Olivier Capp?e, and Eric Moulines. Comparison of resampling schemes for particle filtering. In In 4th International Symposium on Image and Signal Processing and Analysis (ISPA), pages 64?69, 2005. [7] Seong-Hwan Jun and Alexandre Bouchard-C?ot?e. Memory (and time) efficient sequential monte carlo. In Proceedings of the 31st International Conference on Machine Learning, 2014. [8] Pierre Del Moral. Feynman-Kac Formulae ? Genealogical and Interacting Particle Systems with Applications. Probability and its Applications. Springer, 2004. [9] Lawrence M. Murray, Anthony Lee, and Pierre E. Jacob. Parallel resampling in the particle filter. arXiv preprint arXiv:1301.4019, 2014. [10] Christian A. Naesseth, Fredrik Lindsten, and Thomas B. Sch?on. Sequential Monte Carlo for Graphical Models. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 27. 2014. [11] Brooks Paige and Frank Wood. A compilation target for probabilistic programming languages. In Proceedings of the 31st International Conference on Machine learning, 2014. [12] Nick Whiteley, Anthony Lee, and Kari Heine. On the role of interaction in sequential Monte Carlo algorithms. arXiv preprint arXiv:1309.2918, 2013. [13] Frank Wood, Jan Willem van de Meent, and Vikash Mansinghka. A new approach to probabilistic programming inference. In Proceedings of the 17th International conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, 2014. 9
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Probabilistic ODE Solvers with Runge-Kutta Means Michael Schober MPI for Intelligent Systems T?bingen, Germany mschober@tue.mpg.de David Duvenaud Department of Engineering Cambridge University dkd23@cam.ac.uk Philipp Hennig MPI for Intelligent Systems T?bingen, Germany phennig@tue.mpg.de Abstract Runge-Kutta methods are the classic family of solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the basis for the state of the art. Like most numerical methods, they return point estimates. We construct a family of probabilistic numerical methods that instead return a Gauss-Markov process defining a probability distribution over the ODE solution. In contrast to prior work, we construct this family such that posterior means match the outputs of the Runge-Kutta family exactly, thus inheriting their proven good properties. Remaining degrees of freedom not identified by the match to Runge-Kutta are chosen such that the posterior probability measure fits the observed structure of the ODE. Our results shed light on the structure of Runge-Kutta solvers from a new direction, provide a richer, probabilistic output, have low computational cost, and raise new research questions. 1 Introduction Differential equations are a basic feature of dynamical systems. Hence, researchers in machine learning have repeatedly been interested in both the problem of inferring an ODE description from observed trajectories of a dynamical system [1, 2, 3, 4], and its dual, inferring a solution (a trajectory) for an ODE initial value problem (IVP) [5, 6, 7, 8]. Here we address the latter, classic numerical problem. Runge-Kutta (RK) methods [9, 10] are standard tools for this purpose. Over more than a century, these algorithms have matured into a very well-understood, efficient framework [11]. As recently pointed out by Hennig and Hauberg [6], since Runge-Kutta methods are linear extrapolation methods, their structure can be emulated by Gaussian process (GP) regression algorithms. Such an algorithm was envisioned by Skilling in 1991 [5], and the idea has recently attracted both theoretical [8] and practical [6, 7] interest. By returning a posterior probability measure over the solution of the ODE problem, instead of a point estimate, Gaussian process solvers extend the functionality of RK solvers in ways that are particularly interesting for machine learning. Solution candidates can be drawn from the posterior and marginalized [7]. This can allow probabilistic solvers to stop earlier, and to deal (approximately) with probabilistically uncertain inputs and problem definitions [6]. However, current GP ODE solvers do not share the good theoretical convergence properties of Runge-Kutta methods. Specifically, they do not have high polynomial order, explained below. We construct GP ODE solvers whose posterior mean functions exactly match those of the RK families of first, second and third order. This yields a probabilistic numerical method which combines the strengths of Runge-Kutta methods with the additional functionality of GP ODE solvers. It also provides a new interpretation of the classic algorithms, raising new conceptual questions. While our algorithm could be seen as a ?Bayesian? version of the Runge-Kutta framework, a philosophically less loaded interpretation is that, where Runge-Kutta methods fit a single curve (a point estimate) to an IVP, our algorithm fits a probability distribution over such potential solutions, such that the mean of this distribution matches the Runge-Kutta estimate exactly. We find a family of models in the space of Gaussian process linear extrapolation methods with this property, and select a member of this family (fix the remaining degrees of freedom) through statistical estimation. 1 p=1 0 0 1 p=2 0 ? 0 ? 1 (1 ? 2? ) p=3 0 u v 0 1 2? 0 u v(v?u) u(2?3u) 2?3u 2?3v ? 6v(v?u) 6u(u?v) v? 1? 0 v(v?u) u(2?3u) 2?3v 6u(u?v) 0 2?3u 6v(v?u) Table 1: All consistent Runge-Kutta methods of order p ? 3 and number of stages s = p (see [11]). 2 Background An ODE Initial Value Problem (IVP) is to find a function x(t) ? R ? RN such that the ordinary differential equation x? = f (x, t) (where x? = ?x/?t) holds for all t ? T = [t0 , tH ], and x(t0 ) = x0 . We assume that a unique solution exists. To keep notation simple, we will treat x as scalar-valued; the multivariate extension is straightforward (it involves N separate GP models, explained in supp.). Runge-Kutta methods1 [9, 10] are carefully designed linear extrapolation methods operating on small contiguous subintervals [tn , tn + h] ? T of length h. Assume for the moment that n = 0. Within [t0 , t0 + h], an RK method of stage s collects evaluations yi = f (? xi , t0 + hci ) at s recursively defined input locations, i = 1, . . . , s, where x ?i is constructed linearly from the previously-evaluated yj<i as i?1 x ?i = x0 + h ? wij yj , (1) j=1 then returns a single prediction for the solution of the IVP at t0 + h, as x ?(t0 + h) = x0 + h ?si=1 bi yi (modern variants can also construct non-probabilistic error estimates, e.g. by combining the same observations into two different RK predictions [12]). In compact form, i?1 ? ? yi = f x0 + h ? wij yj , t0 + hci , ? ? j=1 i = 1, . . . , s, s x ?(t0 + h) = x0 + h ? bi yi . (2) i=1 x ?(t0 + h) is then taken as the initial value for t1 = t0 + h and the process is repeated until tn + h ? tH . A Runge-Kutta method is thus identified by a lower-triangular matrix W = {wij }, and vectors c = [c1 , . . . , cs ], b = [b1 , . . . , bs ], often presented compactly in a Butcher tableau [13]: c1 c2 c3 ? cs 0 w21 w31 ? ws1 b1 0 w32 ? ws2 b2 0 ? ? ? ? ws,s?1 bs?1 0 bs As Hennig and Hauberg [6] recently pointed out, the linear structure of the extrapolation steps in Runge-Kutta methods means that their algorithmic structure, the Butcher tableau, can be constructed naturally from a Gaussian process regression method over x(t), where the yi are treated as ?observations? of x(t ? 0 + hci ) and the x ?i are subsequent posterior estimates (more below). However, proper RK methods have structure that is not generally reproduced by an arbitrary Gaussian process prior on x: Their distinguishing property is that the approximation x ? and the Taylor series of the true solution coincide at t0 + h up to the p-th term?their numerical error is bounded by ??x(t0 + h) ? x ?(t0 + h)?? ? Khp+1 for some constant K (higher orders are better, because h is assumed to be small). The method is then said to be of order p [11]. A method is consistent, if it is of order p = s. This is only possible for p < 5 [14, 15]. There are no methods of order p > s. High order is a strong desideratum for ODE solvers, not currently offered by Gaussian process extrapolators. Table 1 lists all consistent methods of order p ? 3 where s = p. For s = 1, only Euler?s method (linear extrapolation) is consistent. For s = 2, there exists a family of methods of order p = 2, parametrized 1 In this work, we only address so-called explicit RK methods (shortened to ?Runge-Kutta methods? for simplicity). These are the base case of the extensive theory of RK methods. Many generalizations can be found in [11]. Extending the probabilistic framework discussed here to the wider Runge-Kutta class is not trivial. 2 by a single parameter ? ? (0, 1], where ? = 1/2 and ? = 1 mark the midpoint rule and Heun?s method, respectively. For s = 3, third order methods are parameterized by two variables u, v ? (0, 1]. Gaussian processes (GPs) are well-known in the NIPS community, so we omit an introduction. We will use the standard notation ? ? R ? R for the mean function, and k ? R ? R ? R for the covariance function; kU V for Gram matrices of kernel values k(ui , vj ), and analogous for the mean function: ?T = [?(t1 ), . . . , ?(tN )]. A GP prior p(x) = GP(x; ?, k) and observations (T, Y ) = {(t1 , y1 ), . . . , (ts , ys )} having likelihood N (Y ; xT , ?) give rise to a posterior GP s (x; ?s , k s ) with ?st = ?t + ktT (kT T + ?)?1 (Y ? ?T ) s kuv = kuv ? kuT (kT T + ?)?1 kT v . and (3) GPs are closed under linear maps. In particular, the joint distribution over x and its derivative is ? x x k p [( )] = GP [( ) ; ( ? ) , ( ? x? x? ? k with ?? = ??(t) , ?t k? = ?k(t, t? ) , ?t? ? k= k? k ? ? )] ?k(t, t? ) , ?t (4) k = ? ? ? 2 k(t, t? ) . ?t?t? (5) A recursive algorithm analogous to RK methods can be constructed [5, 6] by setting the prior mean to the constant ?(t) = x0 , then recursively estimating x ?i in some form from the current posterior over x. The choice in [6] is to set x ?i = ?i (t0 + hci ). ?Observations? yi = f (? xi , t0 + hci ) are then incorporated with likelihood p(yi ? x) = N (yi ; x(t ? 0 + hci ), ?). This recursively gives estimates i?1 i?1 x ?(t0 + hci ) = x0 + ? ? k ? (t0 + hci , t0 + hc` )( ? K ? + ?)?1 `j yj = x0 + h ? wij yj , j=1 `=1 (6) j with ? K ? ij = ? k ? (t0 + hci , t0 + hcj ). The final prediction is the posterior mean at this point: s s s x ?(t0 + h) = x0 + ? ? k ? (t0 + h, t0 + hcj )( ? K ? + ?)?1 ji yi = x0 + h ? bi yi . i=1 j=1 3 (7) i Results The described GP ODE estimate shares the algorithmic structure of RK methods (i.e. they both use weighted sums of the constructed estimates to extrapolate). However, in RK methods, weights and evaluation positions are found by careful analysis of the Taylor series of f , such that low-order terms cancel. In GP ODE solvers they arise, perhaps more naturally but also with less structure, by the choice of the ci and the kernel. In previous work [6, 7], both were chosen ad hoc, with no guarantee of convergence order. In fact, as is shown in the supplements, the choices in these two works?square-exponential kernel with finite length-scale, evaluations at the predictive mean?do not even give the first order convergence of Euler?s method. Below we present three specific regression models based on integrated Wiener covariance functions and specific evaluation points. Each model is the improper limit of a Gauss-Markov process, such that the posterior distribution after s evaluations is a proper Gaussian process, and the posterior mean function at t0 + h coincides exactly with the Runge-Kutta estimate. We will call these methods, which give a probabilistic interpretation to RK methods and extend them to return probability distributions, Gauss-Markov-Runge-Kutta (GMRK) methods, because they are based on Gauss-Markov priors and yield Runge-Kutta predictions. 3.1 Design choices and desiderata for a probabilistic ODE solver Although we are not the first to attempt constructing an ODE solver that returns a probability distribution, open questions still remain about what, exactly, the properties of such a probabilistic numerical method should be. Chkrebtii et al. [8] previously made the case that Gaussian measures are uniquely suited because solution spaces of ODEs are Banach spaces, and provided results on consistency. Above, we added the desideratum for the posterior mean to have high order, i.e. to reproduce the Runge-Kutta estimate. Below, three additional issues become apparent: Motivation of evaluation points Both Skilling [5] and Hennig and Hauberg [6] propose to put the ?nodes? x ?(t0 + hci ) at the current posterior mean of the belief. We will find that this can be made 3 2nd order (midpoint) 3rd order (u = 1/4, v = 3/4) x ? ?(t) x 1st order (Euler) 0 t0 t0 + h t0 t0 + h t t0 t t0 + h t Figure 1: Top: Conceptual sketches. Prior mean in gray. Initial value at t0 = 1 (filled blue). Gradient evaluations (empty blue circles, lines). Posterior (means) after first, second and third gradient observation in orange, green and red respectively. Samples from the final posterior as dashed lines. Since, for the second and third-order methods, only the final prediction is a proper probability distribution, for intermediate steps only mean functions are shown. True solution to (linear) ODE in black. Bottom: For better visibility, same data as above, minus final posterior mean. consistent with the order requirement for the RK methods of first and second order. However, our third-order methods will be forced to use a node x ?(t0 + hci ) that, albeit lying along a function w(t) in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space associated with the posterior GP covariance function, is not the mean function itself. It will remain open whether the algorithm can be amended to remove this blemish. However, as the nodes do not enter the GP regression formulation, their choice does not directly affect the probabilistic interpretation. Extension beyond the first extrapolation interval Importantly, the Runge-Kutta argument for convergence order only holds strictly for the first extrapolation interval [t0 , t0 + h]. From the second interval onward, the RK step solves an estimated IVP, and begins to accumulate a global estimation error not bounded by the convergence order (an effect termed ?Lady Windermere?s fan? by Wanner [16]). Should a probabilistic solver aim to faithfully reproduce this imperfect chain of RK solvers, or rather try to capture the accumulating global error? We investigate both options below. Calibration of uncertainty A question easily posed but hard to answer is what it means for the probability distribution returned by a probabilistic method to be well calibrated. For our Gaussian case, requiring RK order in the posterior mean determines all but one degree of freedom of an answer. The remaining parameter is the output scale of the kernel, the ?error bar? of the estimate. We offer a relatively simple statistical argument below that fits this parameter based on observed values of f . We can now proceed to the main results. In the following, we consider extrapolation algorithms based on Gaussian process priors with vanishing prior mean function, noise-free observation model (? = 0 in Eq. (3)). All covariance functions in question are integrals over the kernel k 0 (t?, t?? ) = ? 2 min(t? ? ?, t?? ? ? ) (parameterized by scale ? 2 > 0 and off-set ? ? R; valid on the domain t?, t?? > ? ), the covariance of the Wiener process [17]. Such integrated Wiener processes are Gauss-Markov processes, of increasing order, so inference in these methods can be performed by filtering, at linear cost [18]. We will use the shorthands t = t? ? ? and t? = t?? ? ? for inputs shifted by ? . 3.2 Gauss-Markov methods matching Euler?s method Theorem 1. The once-integrated Wiener process prior p(x) = GP(x; 0, k 1 ) with k 1 (t, t? ) = ? ? t?,t?? k 0 (u, v)du dv = ? 2 ( min3 (t, t? ) min2 (t, t? ) + ?t ? t? ? ) 3 2 choosing evaluation nodes at the posterior mean gives rise to Euler?s method. 4 (8) Proof. We show that the corresponding Butcher tableau from Table 1 holds. After ?observing? the initial value, the second observation y1 , constructed by evaluating f at the posterior mean at t0 , is k(t0 , t0 ) x0 , t0 ) = f (x0 , t0 ), k(t0 , t0 ) directly from the definitions. The posterior mean after incorporating y1 is y1 = f (??x0 (t0 ), t0 ) = f ( ??x0 ,y1 (t0 + h) = [k(t0 + h, t0 ) k(t , t ) k ? (t0 + h, t0 )] [ ? 0 0 k (t0 , t0 ) ?1 k ? (t0 , t0 ) ] ? ? k (t0 , t0 ) (9) x ( 0 ) = x0 + hy1 . y1 (10) An explicit linear algebraic derivation is available in the supplements. 3.3 Gauss-Markov methods matching all Runge-Kutta methods of second order Extending to second order is not as straightforward as integrating the Wiener process a second time. The theorem below shows that this only works after moving the onset ?? of the process towards infinity. Fortunately, this limit still leads to a proper posterior probability distribution. Theorem 2. Consider the twice-integrated Wiener process prior p(x) = GP(x; 0, k 2 ) with min5 (t, t? ) ?t ? t? ? min4 (t, t? ) + ((t + t? ) min3 (t, t? ) ? )) . 20 12 2 ? (11) Choosing evaluation nodes at the posterior mean gives rise to the RK family of second order methods in the limit of ? ? ?. k (t, t ) = ? 2 t?,t?? ? k 1 (u, v)du dv = ? 2 ( (The twice-integrated Wiener process is a proper Gauss-Markov process for all finite values of ? and t?, t?? > 0. In the limit of ? ? ?, it turns into an improper prior of infinite local variance.) Proof. The proof is analogous to the previous one. We need to show all equations given by the Butcher tableau and choice of parameters hold for any choice of ?. The constraint for y1 holds trivially as in Eq. (9). Because y2 = f (x0 + h?y1 , t0 + h?), we need to show ??x0 ,y1 (t0 + h?) = x0 + h?y1 . Therefore, let ? ? (0, 1] arbitrary but fixed: ??x0 ,y1 (t0 + h?) = [k(t0 + h, t0 ) = k(t , t ) k ? (t0 + h, t0 )] [ ? 0 0 k (t0 , t0 ) t0/20 t20 (6(h?)2 +8h?t0 +3t20 ) ] [ t4 24 0/8 5 3 2 2 [ t0 (10(h?) +15h?t0 +6t0 ) 120 = [1 ? 10(h?)2 3t20 h? + k ? (t0 , t0 ) ] k (t0 , t0 ) ?1 ( ? ? t40/8 ?1 ] t30/3 x0 ) y1 ( x0 ) y1 x 2(h?)2 ] ( 0) t0 y1 ???? x0 + h?y1 (12) ? ?? As t0 = t?0 ? ? , the mismatched terms vanish for ? ? ?. Finally, extending the vector and matrix with one more entry, a lengthy computation shows that lim? ?? ??x0 ,y1 ,y2 (t0 + h) = x0 + h(1 ? 1/2?)y1 + h/2?y also holds, analogous to Eq. (10). Omitted details can be found in the supplements. They also 2 include the final-step posterior covariance. Its finite values mean that this posterior indeed defines a proper GP. 3.4 A Gauss-Markov method matching Runge-Kutta methods of third order Moving from second to third order, additionally to the limit towards an improper prior, also requires a departure from the policy of placing extrapolation nodes at the posterior mean. Theorem 3. Consider the thrice-integrated Wiener process prior p(x) = GP(x; 0, k 3 ) with k 3 (t, t? ) = ? ? t?,t?? k 2 (u, v)du dv min7 (t, t? ) ?t ? t? ? min4 (t, t? ) (5 max2 (t, t? ) + 2tt? + 3 min2 (t, t? ))) . =? ( + 252 720 2 5 (13) Evaluating twice at the posterior mean and a third time at a specific element of the posterior covariance functions? RKHS gives rise to the entire family of RK methods of third order, in the limit of ? ? ?. Proof. The proof progresses entirely analogously as in Theorems 1 and 2, with one exception for the term where the mean does not match the RK weights exactly. This is the case for y3 = x0 + h[(v ? v(v?u)/u(2?3u))y1 + v(v?u)/u(2?3u)y2 ] (see Table 1). The weights of Y which give the posterior mean at this point are given by kK ?1 (cf. Eq. (3), which, in the limit, has value (see supp.): lim [k(t0 + hv, t0 ) ? ?? k ? (t0 + hv, t0 ) v2 v2 ] ) h 2u 2u v(v?u) ? u(2?3u) ? v(3v?2) ) 2(3u?2) = [1 h(v ? = [1 h (v = [1 h (v ? v(v?u) ) u(2?3u) k ? (t0 + hv, t0 + hu)] K ?1 v(v?u) h ( u(2?3u) + v(3v?2) )] 2(3u?2) v(v?u) h ( u(2?3u) )] + [0 v(3v?2) ?h 2(3u?2) v(3v?2) h 2(3u?2) ] (14) This means that the final RK evaluation node does not lie at the posterior mean of the regressor. However, it can be produced by adding a correction term w(v) = ?(v) + ?(v)(y2 ? y1 ) where v 3v ? 2 (15) 2 3u ? 2 is a second-order polynomial in v. Since k is of third or higher order in v (depending on the value of u), w can be written as an element of the thrice integrated Wiener process? RKHS [19, ?6.1]. Importantly, the final extrapolation weights b under the limit of the Wiener process prior again match the RK weights exactly, regardless of how y3 is constructed. ?(v) = We note in passing that Eq. (15) vanishes for v = 2/3. For this choice, the RK observation y2 is generated exactly at the posterior mean of the Gaussian process. Intriguingly, this is also the value for ? for which the posterior variance at t0 + h is minimized. 3.5 Choosing the output scale The above theorems have shown that the first three families of Runge-Kutta methods can be constructed from repeatedly integrated Wiener process priors, giving a strong argument for the use of such priors in probabilistic numerical methods. However, requiring this match to a specific Runge-Kutta family in itself does not yet uniquely identify a particular kernel to be used: The posterior mean of a Gaussian process arising from noise-free observations is independent of the output scale (in our notation: ? 2 ) of the covariance function (this can also be seen by inspecting Eq. (3)). Thus, the parameter ? 2 can be chosen independent of the other parts of the algorithm, without breaking the match to Runge-Kutta. Several algorithms using the observed values of f to choose ? 2 without major cost overhead have been proposed in the regression community before [e.g. 20, 21]. For this particular model an even more basic rule is possible: A simple derivation shows that, in all three families of s methods defined above, the posterior belief over ? x/?ts is a Wiener process, and the posterior mean function over the s-th derivative after all s steps is a constant function. The Gaussian model implies that the expected distance of this function from the (zero) prior mean should be the marginal standard ? 2 s deviation ? 2 . We choose ? 2 such that this property is met, by setting ? 2 = [? ?s (t)/?ts ] . Figure 1 shows conceptual sketches highlighting the structure of GMRK methods. Interestingly, in both the second- and third-order families, our proposed priors are improper, so the solver can not actually return a probability distribution until after the observation of all s gradients in the RK step. Some observations We close the main results by highlighting some non-obvious aspects. First, it is intriguing that higher convergence order results from repeated integration of Wiener processes. This repeated integration simultaneously adds to and weakens certain prior assumptions in the implicit (improper) Wiener prior: s-times integrated Wiener processes have marginal variance k s (t, t) ? t2s+1 . Since many ODEs (e.g. linear ones) have solution paths of values O(exp(t)), it is tempting to wonder whether there exists a limit process of ?infinitely-often integrated? Wiener processes giving natural coverage to this domain (the results on a linear ODE in Figure 1 show how the polynomial posteriors cannot cover the exponentially diverging true solution). In this context, 6 Na?ve chaining Smoothing Probabilistic continuation 1 x 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 x(t) ? f (t) 4 ?10?2 ?10?2 ?10?2 2 0 t0 + ? h 2h t 3h 4h t0 + ? h 2h t 3h 4h t0 + ? h 2h t 3h 4h Figure 2: Options for the continuation of GMRK methods after the first extrapolation step (red). All plots use the midpoint method and h = 1. Posterior after two steps (same for all three options) in red (mean, ?2 standard deviations). Extrapolation after 2, 3, 4 steps (gray vertical lines) in green. Final probabilistic prediction as green shading. True solution to (linear) ODE in black. Observations of x and x? marked by solid and empty blue circles, respectively. Bottom row shows the same data, plotted relative to true solution, at higher y-resolution. it is also noteworthy that s-times integrated Wiener priors incorporate the lower-order results for s? < s, so ?highly-integrated? Wiener kernels can be used to match finite-order Runge-Kutta methods. Simultaneously, though, sample paths from an s-times integrated Wiener process are almost surely s-times differentiable. So it seems likely that achieving good performance with a Gauss-MarkovRunge-Kutta solver requires trading off the good marginal variance coverage of high-order Markov models (i.e. repeatedly integrated Wiener processes) against modelling non-smooth solution paths with lower degrees of integration. We leave this very interesting question for future work. 4 Experiments Since Runge-Kutta methods have been extensively studied for over a century [11], it is not necessary to evaluate their estimation performance again. Instead, we focus on an open conceptual question for the further development of probabilistic Runge-Kutta methods: If we accept high convergence order as a prerequisite to choose a probabilistic model, how should probabilistic ODE solvers continue after the first s steps? Purely from an inference perspective, it seems unnatural to introduce new evaluations of x (as opposed to x) ? at t0 + nh for n = 1, 2, . . . . Also, with the exception of the Euler case, the posterior covariance after s evaluations is of such a form that its renewed use in the next interval will not give Runge-Kutta estimates. Three options suggest themselves: Na?ve Chaining One could simply re-start the algorithm several times as if the previous step had created a novel IVP. This amounts to the classic RK setup. However, it does not produce a joint ?global? posterior probability distribution (Figure 2, left column). Smoothing An ad-hoc remedy is to run the algorithm in the ?Na?ve chaining? mode above, producing N ? s gradient observations and N function evaluations, but then compute a joint posterior distribution by using the first s gradient observations and 1 function evaluation as described in Section 3, then using the remaining s(N ? 1) gradients and (N ? 1) function values as in standard GP inference. The appeal of this approach is that it produces a GP posterior whose mean goes through the RK points (Figure 2, center column). But from a probabilistic standpoint it seems contrived. In particular, it produces a very confident posterior covariance, which does not capture global error. 7 ?(t) ? f (t) 2 2nd-order GMRK GP with SE kernel ?10?2 1 0 ?1 t0 + ? h 2h t 3h 4h Figure 3: Comparison of a 2nd order GMRK method and the method from [6]. Shown is error and posterior uncertainty of GMRK (green) and SE kernel (orange). Dashed lines are +2 standard deviations. The SE method shown used the best out of several evaluated parameter choices. Continuing after s evaluations Perhaps most natural from the probabilistic viewpoint is to break with the RK framework after the first RK step, and simply continue to collect gradient observations? either at RK locations, or anywhere else. The strength of this choice is that it produces a continuously growing marginal variance (Figure 2, right). One may perceive the departure from the established RK paradigm as problematic. However, we note again that the core theoretical argument for RK methods is only strictly valid in the first step, the argument for iterative continuation is a lot weaker. Figure 2 shows exemplary results for these three approaches on the (stiff) linear IVP x(t) ? = ?1/2x(t), x(0) = 1. Na?ve chaining does not lead to a globally consistent probability distribution. Smoothing does give this global distribution, but the ?observations? of function values create unnatural nodes of certainty in the posterior. The probabilistically most appealing mode of continuing inference directly offers a naturally increasing estimate of global error. At least for this simple test case, it also happens to work better in practice (note good match to ground truth in the plots). We have found similar results for other test cases, notably also for non-stiff linear differential equations. But of course, probabilistic continuation breaks with at least the traditional mode of operation for Runge-Kutta methods, so a closer theoretical evaluation is necessary, which we are planning for a follow-up publication. Comparison to Square-Exponential kernel Since all theoretical guarantees are given in forms of upper bounds for the RK methods, the application of different GP models might still be favorable in practice. We compared the continuation method from Fig. 2 (right column) to the ad-hoc choice of a square-exponential (SE) kernel model, which was used by Hennig and Hauberg [6] (Fig. 3). For this test case, the GMRK method surpasses the SE-kernel algorithm both in accuracy and calibration: its mean is closer to the true solution than the SE method, and its error bar covers the true solution, while the SE method is over-confident. This advantage in calibration is likely due to the more natural choice of the output scale ? 2 in the GMRK framework. 5 Conclusions We derived an interpretation of Runge-Kutta methods in terms of the limit of Gaussian process regression with integrated Wiener covariance functions, and a structured but nontrivial extrapolation model. The result is a class of probabilistic numerical methods returning Gaussian process posterior distributions whose means can match Runge-Kutta estimates exactly. This class of methods has practical value, particularly to machine learning, where previous work has shown that the probability distribution returned by GP ODE solvers adds important functionality over those of point estimators. But these results also raise pressing open questions about probabilistic ODE solvers. This includes the question of how the GP interpretation of RK methods can be extended beyond the 3rd order, and how ODE solvers should proceed after the first stage of evaluations. Acknowledgments The authors are grateful to Simo S?rkk? for a helpful discussion. 8 References [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] T. Graepel. ?Solving noisy linear operator equations by Gaussian processes: Application to ordinary and partial differential equations?. In: International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML). 2003. B. Calderhead, M. Girolami, and N. 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A Wild Bootstrap for Degenerate Kernel Tests Kacper Chwialkowski Department of Computer Science University College London London, Gower Street, WC1E 6BT kacper.chwialkowski@gmail.com Dino Sejdinovic Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit, UCL 17 Queen Square, London WC1N 3AR dino.sejdinovic@gmail.com Arthur Gretton Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit, UCL 17 Queen Square, London WC1N 3AR arthur.gretton@gmail.com Abstract A wild bootstrap method for nonparametric hypothesis tests based on kernel distribution embeddings is proposed. This bootstrap method is used to construct provably consistent tests that apply to random processes, for which the naive permutation-based bootstrap fails. It applies to a large group of kernel tests based on V-statistics, which are degenerate under the null hypothesis, and nondegenerate elsewhere. To illustrate this approach, we construct a two-sample test, an instantaneous independence test and a multiple lag independence test for time series. In experiments, the wild bootstrap gives strong performance on synthetic examples, on audio data, and in performance benchmarking for the Gibbs sampler. The code is available at https://github.com/kacperChwialkowski/ wildBootstrap. 1 Introduction Statistical tests based on distribution embeddings into reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces have been applied in many contexts, including two sample testing [18, 15, 32], tests of independence [17, 33, 4], tests of conditional independence [14, 33], and tests for higher order (Lancaster) interactions [24]. For these tests, consistency is guaranteed if and only if the observations are independent and identically distributed. Much real-world data fails to satisfy the i.i.d. assumption: audio signals, EEG recordings, text documents, financial time series, and samples obtained when running Markov Chain Monte Carlo, all show significant temporal dependence patterns. The asymptotic behaviour of kernel test statistics becomes quite different when temporal dependencies exist within the samples. In recent work on independence testing using the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) [8], the asymptotic distribution of the statistic under the null hypothesis is obtained for a pair of independent time series, which satisfy an absolute regularity or a ?-mixing assumption. In this case, the null distribution is shown to be an infinite weighted sum of dependent ?2 -variables, as opposed to the sum of independent ?2 -variables obtained in the i.i.d. setting [17]. The difference in the asymptotic null distributions has important implications in practice: under the i.i.d. assumption, an empirical estimate of the null distribution can be obtained by repeatedly permuting the time indices of one of the signals. This breaks the temporal dependence within the permuted signal, which causes the test to return an elevated number of false positives, when used for testing time series. To address this problem, an alternative estimate of the null distribution is proposed in [8], where the null distribution is simulated by repeatedly shifting one signal relative to the other. This preserves the temporal structure within each signal, while breaking the cross-signal dependence. 1 A serious limitation of the shift procedure in [8] is that it is specific to the problem of independence testing: there is no obvious way to generalise it to other testing contexts. For instance, we might have two time series, with the goal of comparing their marginal distributions - this is a generalization of the two-sample setting to which the shift approach does not apply. We note, however, that many kernel tests have a test statistic with a particular structure: the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), HSIC, and the Lancaster interaction statistic, each have empirical P 1 estimates which can be cast as normalized V -statistics, nm?1 1?i1 ,...,im ?n h(Zi1 , ..., Zim ), where Zi1 , ..., Zim are samples from a random process at the time points {i1 , . . . , im }. We show that a method of external randomization known as the wild bootstrap may be applied [21, 28] to simulate from the null distribution. In brief, the arguments of the above sum are repeatedly multiplied by random, user-defined time series. For a test of level ?, the 1 ? ? quantile of the empirical distribution obtained using these perturbed statistics serves as the test threshold. This approach has the important advantage over [8] that it may be applied to all kernel-based tests for which V -statistics are employed, and not just for independence tests. The main result of this paper is to show that the wild bootstrap procedure yields consistent tests for time series, i.e., tests based on the wild bootstrap have a Type I error rate (of wrongly rejecting the null hypothesis) approaching the design parameter ?, and a Type II error (of wrongly accepting the null) approaching zero, as the number of samples increases. We use this result to construct a two-sample test using MMD, and an independence test using HSIC. The latter procedure is applied both to testing for instantaneous independence, and to testing for independence across multiple time lags, for which the earlier shift procedure of [8] cannot be applied. We begin our presentation in Section 2, with a review of the ? -mixing assumption required of the time series, as well as of V -statistics (of which MMD and HSIC are instances). We also introduce the form taken by the wild bootstrap. In Section 3, we establish a general consistency result for the wild bootstrap procedure on V -statistics, which we apply to MMD and to HSIC in Section 4. Finally, in Section 5, we present a number of empirical comparisons: in the two sample case, we test for differences in audio signals with the same underlying pitch, and present a performance diagnostic for the output of a Gibbs sampler (the MCMC M.D.); in the independence case, we test for independence of two time series sharing a common variance (a characteristic of econometric models), and compare against the test of [4] in the case where dependence may occur at multiple, potentially unknown lags. Our tests outperform both the naive approach which neglects the dependence structure within the samples, and the approach of [4], when testing across multiple lags. Detailed proofs are found in the appendices of an accompanying technical report [9], which we reference from the present document as needed. 2 Background The main results of the paper are based around two concepts: ? -mixing [10], which describes the dependence within the time series, and V -statistics [27], which constitute our test statistics. In this section, we review these topics, and introduce the concept of wild bootstrapped V -statistics, which will be the key ingredient in our test construction. ? -mixing. The notion of ? -mixing is used to characterise weak dependence. It is a less restrictive alternative to classical mixing coefficients, and is covered in depth in [10]. Let {Zt , Ft }t?N be a stationary sequence of integrable random variables, defined on a probability space ? with a probability measure P and a natural filtration Ft . The process is called ? -dependent if 1 r?? sup ? (F0 , (Zi1 , ..., Zil )) ?? 0, where l?N l r?i1 ?...?il Z   Z ? (M, X) = E sup g(t)PX|M (dt) ? g(t)PX (dt) g?? ? (r) = sup and ? is the set of all one-Lipschitz continuous real-valued functions on the domain of X. ? (M, X) d can be interpreted as the minimal L1 distance between X and X ? such that X = X ? and X ? is independent of M ? F. Furthermore, if F is rich enough, this X ? can be constructed (see Proposition 4 in the Appendix). More information is provided in the Appendix B. 2 V -statistics. The test statistics considered in this paper are always V -statistics. Given the obn servations Z = {Zt }t=1 , a V -statistic of a symmetric function h taking m arguments is given by 1 X h(Zi1 , ..., Zim ), (1) i?N m nm where N m is a Cartesian power of a set N = {1, ..., n}. For simplicity, we will often drop the second argument and write simply V (h). V (h, Z) = We will refer to the function h as to the core of the V -statistic V (h). While such functions are usually called kernels in the literature, in this paper we reserve the term kernel for positivedefinite functions taking two arguments. A core h is said to be j-degenerate if for each z1 , . . . , zj ? ? ? ? Eh(z1 , . . . , zj , Zj+1 , . . . , Zm ) = 0, where Zj+1 , . . . , Zm are independent copies of Z1 . If h is j-degenerate for all j ? m ? 1, we will say that it is canonical. For a one-degenerate core h, we define an auxiliary function h2 , called the second component of the core, and given by ? h2 (z1 , z2 ) = Eh(z1 , z2 , Z3? , . . . , Zm ). Finally we say that nV (h) is a normalized V -statistic, and that a V -statistic with a one-degenerate core is a degenerate V -statistic. This degeneracy is common to many kernel statistics when the null hypothesis holds [15, 17, 24]. Our main results will rely on the fact that h2 governs the asymptotic behaviour of normalized degenerate V -statistics. Unfortunately, the limiting distribution of such V -statistics is quite complicated - it is an infinite sum of dependent ?2 -distributed random variables, with a dependence determined by the temporal dependence structure within the process {Zt } and by the eigenfunctions of a certain integral operator associated with h2 [5, 8]. Therefore, we propose a bootstrapped version of the V -statistics which will allow a consistent approximation of this difficult limiting distribution. Bootstrapped V -statistic. We will study two versions of the bootstrapped V -statistics 1 X Vb1 (h, Z) = m Wi1 ,n Wi2 ,n h(Zi1 , ..., Zim ), (2) i?N m n 1 X ? i ,n W ? i ,n h(Zi , ..., Zi ), Vb2 (h, Z) = m W (3) 1 2 1 m i?N m n ? t,n = Wt,n ? 1 Pn Wj,n . This where {Wt,n }1?t?n is an auxiliary wild bootstrap process and W j=1 n auxiliary process, proposed by [28, 21], satisfies the following assumption: Bootstrap assumption: {Wt,n }1?t?n is a row-wise strictly stationary triangular array independent 2+? of all Zt such that EWt,n = 0 and supn E|Wt,n | < ? for some ? > 0. The autocovariance of the process is given by EWs,n Wt,n = ?(|s ? t|/ln ) for some function ?, such that limu?0 ?(u) = 1 Pn?1 and r=1 ?(|r|/ln ) = O(ln ). The sequence {ln } is taken such that ln = o(n) but limn?? ln = r ?. The variables Wt,n are ? -weakly dependent with coefficients ? (r) ? C? ln for r = 1, ..., n, ? ? (0, 1) and C ? R. As noted in in [21, Remark ? 2], a simple realization of a process that satisfies this assumption is Wt,n = e?1/ln Wt?1,n + 1 ? e?2/ln t where W0,n and 1 , . . . , n are independent standard normal random variables. For simplicity, we will drop the index n and write Wt instead of Wt,n . A process that fulfils the bootstrap assumption will be called bootstrap process. Further discussion of the wild bootstrap is provided in the Appendix A. The versions of the bootstrapped V -statistics in (2) and (3) were previously studied in [21] for the case of canonical cores of degree m = 2. We extend their results to higher degree cores (common within the kernel testing framework), which are not necessarily one-degenerate. When stating a fact that applies to both Vb1 and Vb2 , we will simply write Vb , and the argument Z will be dropped when there is no ambiguity. 3 Asymptotics of wild bootstrapped V -statistics In this section, we present main Theorems that describe asymptotic behaviour of V -statistics. In the next section, these results will be used to construct kernel-based statistical tests applicable to dependent observations. Tests are constructed so that the V -statistic is degenerate under the null hypothesis and non-degenerate under the alternative. Theorem 1 guarantees that the bootstrapped V -statistic will converge to the same limiting null distribution as the simple V -statistic. Following [21], we will establish the convergence of the bootstrapped distribution to the desired asymptotic 3 distribution in the Prokhorov metric ? [13, Section 11.3]), and ensure that this distance approaches zero in probability as n ? ?. This two-part convergence statement is needed due to the additional randomness introduced by the Wj,n . Theorem 1. Assume that the stationary process {Zt } is ? -dependent with ? (r) = O(r?6? ) for some  > 0. If the core h is a Lipschitz continuous, one-degenerate, and  bounded function of m arguments and its h2 -component is a positive definite kernel, then ?(n m 2 Vb (h, Z), nV (h, Z)) ? 0 in probability as n ? ?, where ? is Prokhorov metric.  Proof. By Lemma 3 and Lemma 2 respectively, ?(nVb (h), nVb (h2 )) and ?(nV (h), n m 2 V (h2 )) converge to zero. By [21, Theorem 3.1], nVb (h2 ) and nV (h2 , Z) have the same limiting distribution, i.e., ?(nVb (h2 ), nV (h2 , Z)) ? 0 in probability under certain assumptions. Thus, it suffices to check these assumptions hold: Assumption A2. (i) h2 is one-degenerate and symmetric - this follows from Lemma 1; (ii) h2 is a kernel - is one of the assumptions of this Theorem; (iii) Eh2 (Z1 , Z1 ) ? ? - by Lemma 7, h2 is bounded and therefore has a finite expected value; (iv) h2 is Lipschitz continuous p Pn - followsp from Lemma 7. Assumption B1. r2 ? (r) < ?. Since ? (r) = O(r?6? ) then r=1 Pn Pn 2 ? (r) ? C r=1 r?1?/2 ? ?. Assumption B2. This assumption about the auxiliary r=1 r process {Wt } is the same as our Bootstrap assumption. On the other hand, if the V -statistic is not degenerate, which is usually true under the alternative, it converges to some non-zero constant. In this setting, Theorem 2 guarantees that the bootstrapped V -statistic will converge to zero in probability. This property is necessary in testing, as it implies that the test thresholds computed using the bootstrapped V -statistics will also converge to zero, and so will the corresponding Type II error. The following theorem is due to Lemmas 4 and 5. Theorem 2. Assume that the process {Zt } is ? -dependent with a coefficient ? (r) = O(r?6? ). If the core h is a Lipschitz continuous, symmetric and bounded function of m arguments, then nVb2 (h) converges in distribution to some non-zero random variable with finite variance, and Vb1 (h) converges to zero in probability. Although both Vb2 and Vb1 converge to zero, the rate and the type of convergence are not the same: nVb2 converges in law to some random variable while the behaviour of nVb1 is unspecified. As a consequence, tests that utilize Vb2 usually give lower Type II error then the ones that use Vb1 . On the other hand, Vb1 seems to better approximate V -statistic distribution under the null hypothesis. This agrees with our experiments in Section 5 as well as with those in [21, Section 5]). 4 Applications to Kernel Tests In this section, we describe how the wild bootstrap for V -statistics can be used to construct kernel tests for independence and the two-sample problem, which are applicable to weakly dependent observations. We start by reviewing the main concepts underpinning the kernel testing framework. |= For every symmetric, positive definite function, i.e., kernel k : X ? X ? R, there is an associated reproducing kernel Hilbert space Hk [3, p. 19]. The Rkernel embedding of a probability measure P on X is an element ?k (P ) ? Hk , given by ?k (P ) = k(?, x) dP (x) [3, 29]. If a measurable kernel k is bounded, the mean embedding ?k (P ) exists for all probability measures on X , and for many interesting bounded kernels k, including the Gaussian, Laplacian and inverse multi-quadratics, the kernel embedding P 7? ?k (P ) is injective. Such kernels are said to be characteristic [31]. The 2 RKHS-distance k?k (Px ) ? ?k (Py )kHk between embeddings of two probability measures Px and Py is termed the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), and its empirical version serves as a popular statistic for non-parametric two-sample testing [15]. Similarly, given a sample of paired observations {(Xi , Yi )}ni=1 ? Pxy , and kernels k and l respectively on X and Y domains, the RKHS-distance 2 k?? (Pxy ) ? ?? (Px Py )kH? between embeddings of the joint distribution and of the product of the marginals, measures dependence between X and Y . Here, ?((x, y), (x0 , y 0 )) = k(x, x0 )l(y, y 0 ) is the kernel on the product space of X and Y domains. This quantity is called Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) [16, 17]. When characteristic RKHSs are used, the HSIC is zero iff X Y : this follows from [22, Lemma 3.8] and [30, Proposition 2]. The empirical statistic is written [ ? = 12 Tr(KHLH) for kernel matrices K and L and the centering matrix H = I ? 1 11> . HSIC n n 4 4.1 Wild Bootstrap For MMD n y x ? Px , and {Yj }j=1 ? Py . Our goal is to test the null hypotheDenote the observations by {Xi }ni=1 sis H0 : Px = Py vs. the alternative H1 : Px 6= Py . In the case where samples have equal sizes, i.e., nx = ny , application of the wild bootstrap to MMD-based tests on dependent samples is straightforward: the empirical MMD can be written as a V -statistic with the core of degree two on pairs zi = (xi , yi ) given by h(z1 , z2 ) = k(x1 , x2 )?k(x1 , y2 )?k(x2 , y1 )+k(y1 , y2 ). It is clear that whenever k is Lipschitz continuous and bounded, so is h. Moreover, h is a valid positive definite kernel, since it can be represented as an RKHS inner product hk(?, x1 ) ? k(?, y1 ), k(?, x2 ) ? k(?, y2 )iHk . Under the null hypothesis, h is also one-degenerate, i.e., Eh ((x1 , y1 ), (X2 , Y2 )) = 0. Therefore, we can use the bootstrapped statistics in (2) and (3) to approximate the null distribution and attain a desired test level. When nx 6= ny , however, it is no longer possible to write the empirical MMD as a one-sample V -statistic. We will therefore require the following bootstrapped version of MMD ny ny nx X nx X X X (y) (y) ? (x) W ? (x) k(xi , xj ) ? 1 ? W ? k(yi , yj ) \ k,b = 1 MMD W W i j j 2 2 nx i=1 j=1 nx i=1 j=1 i ? ny nx X 2 X ? (y) k(xi , yj ), ? (x) W W j nx ny i=1 j=1 i (4) ? t(x) = Wt(x) ? 1 Pnx W (x) , W ? t(y) = Wt(y) ? 1 Pny W (y) ; {Wt(x) } and {Wt(y) } where W i j=1 j i=1 nx ny are two auxiliary wild bootstrap processes that are independent of {Xt } and {Yt } and also independent of each other, both satisfying the bootstrap assumption in Section 2. The following Proposition shows that the bootstrapped statistic has the same asymptotic null distribution as the empirical MMD. The proof follows that of [21, Theorem 3.1], and is given in the Appendix. Proposition 1. Let k be bounded and Lipschitz continuous, and let {Xt } and {Yt } both be ? -dependent with coefficients ? (r) = O(r?6? ), but independent of each other. Further, let nx = ?x n and ny = ?y n where  n = nx + ny . Then, under the null hypothesis Px = Py , \ \ ? ?x ?y nMMDk , ?x ?y nMMDk,b ? 0 in probability as n ? ?, where ? is the Prokhorov metric \ and M MDk is the MMD between empirical measures. 4.2 Wild Bootstrap For HSIC |= Using HSIC in the context of random processes is not new in the machine learning literature. For a 1-approximating functional of an absolutely regular process [6], convergence in probability of the empirical HSIC to its population value was shown in [34]. No asymptotic distributions were obtained, however, nor was a statistical test constructed. The asymptotics of a normalized V -statistic were obtained in [8] for absolutely regular and ?-mixing processes [12]. Due to the intractability of the null distribution for the test statistic, the authors propose a procedure to approximate its null distribution using circular shifts of the observations leading to tests of instantaneous independence, i.e., of Xt Yt , ?t. This was shown to be consistent under the null (i.e., leading to the correct Type I error), however consistency of the shift procedure under the alternative is a challenging open question (see [8, Section A.2] for further discussion). In contrast, as shown below in Propositions 2 and 3 (which are direct consequences of the Theorems 1 and 2), the wild bootstrap guarantees test consistency under both hypotheses: null and alternative, which is a major advantage. In addition, the wild bootstrap can be used in constructing a test for the harder problem of determining independence across multiple lags simultaneously, similar to the one in [4]. Following symmetrisation, it is shown in [17, 8] that the empirical HSIC can be written as a degree four V -statistic with core given by 1 X h(z1 , z2 , z3 , z4 ) = k(x?(1) , x?(2) )[l(y?(1) , y?(2) ) + l(y?(3) , y?(4) ) ? 2l(y?(2) , y?(3) )], 4! ??S4 where we denote by Sn the group of permutations over n elements. Thus, we can directly apply the theory developed for higher-order V -statistics in Section 3. We consider two types of tests: instantaneous independence and independence at multiple time lags. 5 Table 1: Rejection rates for two-sample experiments. MCMC: sample size=500; a Gaussian kernel with bandwidth ? = 1.7 is used; every second Gibbs sample is kept (i.e., after a pass through both dimensions). Audio: sample sizes are (nx , ny ) = {(300, 200), (600, 400), (900, 600)}; a Gaussian kernel with bandwidth ? = 14 is used. Both: wild bootstrap uses blocksize of ln = 20; averaged over at least 200 trials. The Type II error for all tests was zero MCMC Audio experiment \ method i.i.d. vs i.i.d. (H0 ) i.i.d. vs Gibbs (H0 ) Gibbs vs Gibbs (H0 ) H0 H1 permutation .040 .528 .680 {.970,.965,.995} {1,1,1} \ k,b MMD .025 .100 .110 {.145,.120,.114} {.600,.898,.995} Vb1 .012 .052 .060 Vb2 .070 .105 .100 Test of instantaneous independence Here, the null hypothesis H0 is that Xt and Yt are independent at all times t, and the alternative hypothesis H1 is that they are dependent. Proposition 2. Under the null hypothesis, if the stationary process Zt = (Xt , Yt ) is ? -dependent  with a coefficient ? (r) = O r?6? for some  > 0, then ?(6nVb (h), nV (h)) ? 0 in probability, where ? is the Prokhorov metric. Proof. Since k and l are bounded and Lipschitz continuous, the core h is bounded and Lipschitz continuous. One-degeneracy under the null hypothesis was stated in [17, Theorem 2], and that h2 is a kernel is shown in [17, section A.2, following eq. (11)]. The result follows from Theorem 1. The following proposition holds by the Theorem 2, since the core h is Lipschitz continuous, symmetric and bounded.  Proposition 3. If the stationary process Zt is ? -dependent with a coefficient ? (r) = O r?6? for some  > 0, then under the alternative hypothesis nVb2 (h) converges in distribution to some random variable with a finite variance and Vb1 converges to zero in probability. Lag-HSIC Propositions 2 and 3 also allow us to construct a test of time series independence that is similar to one designed by [4]. Here, we will be testing against a broader null hypothesis: Xt and Yt0 are independent for |t ? t0 | < M for an arbitrary large but fixed M . In the Appendix, we show how to construct a test when M ? ?, although this requires an additional assumption about the uniform convergence of cumulative distribution functions. Since the time series Zt = (Xt , Yt ) is stationary, it suffices to check whether there exists a dependency between Xt and Yt+m for ?M ? m ? M . Since each lag corresponds to an individual hypothesis, we will require a Bonferroni correction to attain a desired test level ?. We therefore define q = 1 ? 2M?+1 . The shifted time series will be denoted Ztm = (Xt , Yt+m ). Let Sm,n = nV (h, Z m ) denote the value of the normalized HSIC statistic calculated on the shifted process Ztm . Let Fb,n denote the empirical cumulative distribution function obtained by the bootstrap procedure using nVb (h, Z).oThe test will then reject the null hypothesis if the event n ?1 An = max?M ?m?M Sm,n > Fb,n (q) occurs. By a simple application of the union bound, it is clear that the asymptotic probability of the Type I error will be limn?? P H0 (An ) ? ?. On the other hand, if the alternative holds, there exists some m with |m| ? M for which V (h, Z m ) = n?1 Sm,n converges to a non-zero constant. In this case ?1 ?1 P H1 (An ) ? P H1 (Sm,n > Fb,n (q)) = P H1 (n?1 Sm,n > n?1 Fb,n (q)) ? 1 (5) ?1 as long as n?1 Fb,n (q) ? 0, which follows from the convergence of Vb to zero in probability shown in Proposition 3. Therefore, the Type II error of the multiple lag test is guaranteed to converge to zero as the sample size increases. Our experiments in the next Section demonstrate that while this procedure is defined over a finite range of lags, it results in tests more powerful than the procedure for an infinite number of lags proposed in [4]. We note that a procedure that works for an infinite number of lags, although possible to construct, does not add much practical value under the present assumptions. Indeed, since the ? -mixing assumption applies to the joint sequence Zt = (Xt , Yt ), 6 0.2 1 0.1 0.05 Vb2 Shift 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 ?0.05 Vb1 0.8 type II error type I error 0.15 0.2 0.4 0.6 AR coeffcient 0 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.8 Extinction rate 1 type II error rate Figure 1: Comparison of Shift-HSIC and tests based on Vb1 and Vb2 . The left panel shows the performance under the null hypothesis, where a larger AR coefficient implies a stronger temporal dependence. The right panel show the performance under the alternative hypothesis, where a larger extinction rate implies a greater dependence between processes. 1 1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0 100 KCSD HSIC 0 150 200 250 sample size 300 200 250 sample size 300 Figure 2: In both panel Type II error is plotted. The left panel presents the error of the lag-HSIC and KCSD algorithms for a process following dynamics given by the equation (6). The errors for a process with dynamics given by equations (7) and (8) are shown in the right panel. The X axis is indexed by the time series length, i.e., sample size. The Type I error was around 5%. dependence between Xt and Yt+m is bound to disappear at a rate of o(m?6 ), i.e., the variables both within and across the two series are assumed to become gradually independent at large lags. 5 Experiments The MCMC M.D. We employ MMD in order to diagnose how far an MCMC chain is from its stationary distribution [26, Section 5], by comparing the MCMC sample to a benchmark sample. A hypothesis test of whether the sampler has converged based on the standard permutation-based bootstrap leads to too many rejections of the null hypothesis, due to dependence within the chain. Thus, one would require heavily thinned chains, which is wasteful of samples and computationally burdensome. Our experiments indicate that the wild bootstrap approach allows consistent tests directly on the chains, as it attains a desired number of false positives. To assess performance of the wild bootstrap in determining MCMC convergence, we consider the situation where samples {Xi } and {Yi } are bivariate, andboth have the  identical marginal distri 15.5 14.5 bution given by an elongated normal P = N [ 0 0 ] , . However, they could 14.5 15.5 have arisen either as independent samples, or as outputs of the Gibbs sampler with stationary distribution P . Table 1 shows the rejection rates under the significance level ? = 0.05. It is clear that in the case where at least one of the samples is a Gibbs chain, the permutation-based test has a Type I error much larger than ?. The wild bootstrap using Vb1 (without artificial degeneration) yields the correct Type I error control in these cases. Consistent with findings in [21, Section 5], Vb1 mimics \ k,b in (4) which also relies on the null distribution better than Vb2 . The bootstrapped statistic MMD the artificially degenerated bootstrap processes, behaves similarly to Vb2 . In the alternative scenario where {Yi } was taken from a distribution with the same covariance structure but with the mean set to ? = [ 2.5 0 ], the Type II error for all tests was zero. Pitch-evoking sounds Our second experiment is a two sample test on sounds studied in the field of pitch perception [19]. We synthesise the sounds with the fundamental frequency parameter of treble C, subsampled at 10.46kHz. Each i-th period of length ? contains d = 20 audio samples 7 at times 0 = t1 < . . . < td < ? ? we treat this whole vector as a single observation Xi or Yi , i.e., we are comparing distributions on R20 . Sounds are generated based on  the AR process ai  = ? P Pd (tr ?ts ?(j?i)?)2 2 ?ai?1 + 1 ? ? i , where a0 , i ? N (0, Id ), with Xi,r = j s=1 aj,s exp ? . 2? 2 Thus, a given pattern ? a smoothed version of a0 ? slowly varies, and hence the sound deviates from periodicity, but still evokes a pitch. We take X with ? = 0.1? and ? = 0.8, and Y is either an independent copy of X (null scenario), or has ? = 0.05? (alternative scenario) (Variation in the smoothness parameter changes the width of the spectral envelope, i.e., the brightness of the sound). nx is taken to be different from ny . Results in Table 1 demonstrate that the approach using the wild bootstrapped statistic in (4) allows control of the Type I error and reduction of the Type II error with increasing sample size, while the permutation test virtually always rejects the null hypothesis. As in [21] and the MCMC example, the artificial degeneration of the wild bootstrap process causes the Type I error to remain above the design parameter of 0.05, although it can be observed to drop with increasing sample size. Instantaneous independence To examine instantaneous independence test performance, we compare it with the Shift-HSIC procedure [8] on the ?Extinct Gaussian? autoregressive process proposed in the [8, Section 4.1]. Using exactly the same setting we compute type I error as a function of the temporal dependence and type II error as a function of extinction rate. Figure 1 shows that all three tests (Shift-HSIC and tests based on Vb1 and Vb2 ) perform similarly. Lag-HSIC The KCSD [4] is, to our knowledge, the only test procedure to reject the null hypothesis if there exist t,t0 such that Zt and Zt0 are dependent. In the experiments, we compare lag-HSIC with KCSD on two kinds of processes: one inspired by econometrics and one from [4]. In lag-HSIC, the number of lags under examination was equal to max{10, log n}, where n is the sample size. We used Gaussian kernels with widths estimated by the median heuristic. The cumulative distribution of the V -statistics was approximated by samples from nVb2 . To model the tail of this distribution, we have fitted the generalized Pareto distribution to the bootstrapped samples ([23] shows that for a large class of underlying distribution functions such an approximation is valid). The first process is a pair of two time series which share a common variance, Xt = 1,t ?t2 , 2 2 Yt = 2,t ?t2 , ?t2 = 1 + 0.45(Xt?1 + Yt?1 ), i.i.d. i,t ? N (0, 1), i ? {1, 2}. (6) The above set of equations is an instance of the VEC dynamics [2] used in econometrics to model market volatility. The left panel of the Figure 2 presents the Type II error rate: for KCSD it remains at 90% while for lag-HSIC it gradually drops to zero. The Type I error, which we calculated by (1) (1) (2) (2) sampling two independent copies (Xt , Yt ) and (Xt , Yt ) of the process and performing the (1) (2) tests on the pair (Xt , Yt ), was around 5% for both of the tests. Our next experiment is a process sampled according to the dynamics proposed by [4], i.i.d. Xt = cos(?t,1 ), ?t,1 = ?t?1,1 + 0.11,t + 2?f1 Ts , 1,t ? N (0, 1), (7) Yt = [2 + C sin(?t,1 )] cos(?t,2 ), ?t,2 = ?t?1,2 + 0.12,t + 2?f2 Ts , 2,t ? N (0, 1), (8) i.i.d. with parameters C = .4, f1 = 4Hz,f2 = 20Hz, and frequency T1s = 100Hz. We compared performance of the KCSD algorithm, with parameters set to vales recommended in [4], and the lag-HSIC algorithm. The Type II error of lag-HSIC, presented in the right panel of the Figure 2, is substantially lower than that of KCSD. The Type I error (C = 0) is equal or lower than 5% for both procedures. Most oddly, KCSD error seems to converge to zero in steps. This may be due to the method relying on a spectral decomposition of the signals across a fixed set of bands. As the number of samples increases, the quality of the spectrogram will improve, and dependence will become apparent in bands where it was undetectable at shorter signal lengths. References [1] M.A. Arcones. The law of large numbers for U-statistics under absolute regularity. Electron. Comm. Probab, 3:13?19, 1998. [2] L. Bauwens, S. Laurent, and J.V.K. Rombouts. Multivariate GARCH models: a survey. J. Appl. Econ., 21(1):79?109, January 2006. [3] A. Berlinet and C. Thomas-Agnan. Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces in Probability and Statistics. Kluwer, 2004. 8 [4] M. Besserve, N.K. Logothetis, and B. Schlkopf. Statistical analysis of coupled time series with kernel cross-spectral density operators. In NIPS, pages 2535?2543. 2013. [5] I.S. Borisov and N.V. Volodko. Orthogonal series and limit theorems for canonical U- and V-statistics of stationary connected observations. Siberian Adv. Math., 18(4):242?257, 2008. [6] S. Borovkova, R. Burton, and H. Dehling. Limit theorems for functionals of mixing processes with applications to U-statistics and dimension estimation. Trans. Amer. Math. Soc., 353(11):4261?4318, 2001. [7] R. Bradley et al. Basic properties of strong mixing conditions. a survey and some open questions. Probability surveys, 2(107-44):37, 2005. [8] K. Chwialkowski and A. Gretton. A kernel independence test for random processes. In ICML, 2014. [9] Kacper Chwialkowski, Dino Sejdinovic, and Arthur Gretton. A wild bootstrap for degenerate kernel tests. tech. report. arXiv preprint arXiv:1408.5404, 2014. [10] J. Dedecker, P. Doukhan, G. Lang, S. Louhichi, and C. Prieur. Weak dependence: with examples and applications, volume 190. Springer, 2007. [11] J?er?ome Dedecker and Cl?ementine Prieur. New dependence coefficients. examples and applications to statistics. Probability Theory and Related Fields, 132(2):203?236, 2005. [12] P. Doukhan. Mixing. Springer, 1994. [13] R.M. Dudley. Real analysis and probability, volume 74. Cambridge University Press, 2002. [14] K. Fukumizu, A. Gretton, X. Sun, and B. Sch?olkopf. Kernel measures of conditional dependence. In NIPS, volume 20, pages 489?496, 2007. [15] A. Gretton, K.M. Borgwardt, M.J. Rasch, B. Sch?olkopf, and A. Smola. A kernel two-sample test. J. Mach. Learn. Res., 13:723?773, 2012. [16] A. Gretton, O. Bousquet, A. Smola, and B. Sch?olkopf. Measuring statistical dependence with HilbertSchmidt norms. In Algorithmic learning theory, pages 63?77. Springer, 2005. [17] A. Gretton, K. Fukumizu, C Teo, L. Song, B. Sch?olkopf, and A. Smola. A kernel statistical test of independence. In NIPS, volume 20, pages 585?592, 2007. [18] Z. Harchaoui, F. Bach, and E. Moulines. Testing for homogeneity with kernel Fisher discriminant analysis. In NIPS. 2008. [19] P. Hehrmann. Pitch Perception as Probabilistic Inference. PhD thesis, Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit, University College London, 2011. [20] A. Leucht. Degenerate U- and V-statistics under weak dependence: Asymptotic theory and bootstrap consistency. Bernoulli, 18(2):552?585, 2012. [21] A. Leucht and M.H. Neumann. Dependent wild bootstrap for degenerate U- and V-statistics. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 117:257?280, 2013. [22] R. Lyons. Distance covariance in metric spaces. Ann. Probab., 41(5):3051?3696, 2013. [23] J. Pickands III. Statistical inference using extreme order statistics. Ann. Statist., pages 119?131, 1975. [24] D. Sejdinovic, A. Gretton, and W. Bergsma. A kernel test for three-variable interactions. In NIPS, pages 1124?1132, 2013. [25] D. Sejdinovic, B. Sriperumbudur, A. Gretton, and K. Fukumizu. Equivalence of distance-based and RKHS-based statistics in hypothesis testing. Ann. Statist., 41(5):2263?2702, 2013. [26] D. Sejdinovic, H. Strathmann, M. Lomeli Garcia, C. Andrieu, and A. Gretton. Kernel Adaptive Metropolis-Hastings. In ICML, 2014. [27] R. Serfling. Approximation Theorems of Mathematical Statistics. Wiley, New York, 1980. [28] X. Shao. The dependent wild bootstrap. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 105(489):218?235, 2010. [29] A. J Smola, A. Gretton, L. Song, and B. Sch?olkopf. A Hilbert space embedding for distributions. In Algorithmic Learning Theory, volume LNAI4754, pages 13?31, Berlin/Heidelberg, 2007. Springer-Verlag. [30] B. Sriperumbudur, K. Fukumizu, and G. Lanckriet. Universality, characteristic kernels and RKHS embedding of measures. J. Mach. Learn. Res., 12:2389?2410, 2011. [31] B. Sriperumbudur, A. Gretton, K. Fukumizu, G. Lanckriet, and B. Sch?olkopf. Hilbert space embeddings and metrics on probability measures. J. Mach. Learn. Res., 11:1517?1561, 2010. [32] M. Sugiyama, T. Suzuki, Y. Itoh, T. Kanamori, and M. Kimura. Least-squares two-sample test. Neural Networks, 24(7):735?751, 2011. [33] K. Zhang, J. Peters, D. Janzing, B., and B. Sch?olkopf. Kernel-based conditional independence test and application in causal discovery. In UAI, pages 804?813, 2011. [34] X. Zhang, L. Song, A. Gretton, and A. Smola. Kernel measures of independence for non-iid data. In NIPS, volume 22, 2008. 9
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(Almost) No Label No Cry Giorgio Patrini1,2 , Richard Nock1,2 , Paul Rivera1,2 , Tiberio Caetano1,3,4 Australian National University1 , NICTA2 , University of New South Wales3 , Ambiata4 Sydney, NSW, Australia {name.surname}@anu.edu.au Abstract In Learning with Label Proportions (LLP), the objective is to learn a supervised classifier when, instead of labels, only label proportions for bags of observations are known. This setting has broad practical relevance, in particular for privacy preserving data processing. We first show that the mean operator, a statistic which aggregates all labels, is minimally sufficient for the minimization of many proper scoring losses with linear (or kernelized) classifiers without using labels. We provide a fast learning algorithm that estimates the mean operator via a manifold regularizer with guaranteed approximation bounds. Then, we present an iterative learning algorithm that uses this as initialization. We ground this algorithm in Rademacher-style generalization bounds that fit the LLP setting, introducing a generalization of Rademacher complexity and a Label Proportion Complexity measure. This latter algorithm optimizes tractable bounds for the corresponding bag-empirical risk. Experiments are provided on fourteen domains, whose size ranges up to ?300K observations. They display that our algorithms are scalable and tend to consistently outperform the state of the art in LLP. Moreover, in many cases, our algorithms compete with or are just percents of AUC away from the Oracle that learns knowing all labels. On the largest domains, half a dozen proportions can suffice, i.e. roughly 40K times less than the total number of labels. 1 Introduction Machine learning has recently experienced a proliferation of problem settings that, to some extent, enrich the classical dichotomy between supervised and unsupervised learning. Cases as multiple instance labels, noisy labels, partial labels as well as semi-supervised learning have been studied motivated by applications where fully supervised learning is no longer realistic. In the present work, we are interested in learning a binary classifier from information provided at the level of groups of instances, called bags. The type of information we assume available is the label proportions per bag, indicating the fraction of positive binary labels of its instances. Inspired by [1], we refer to this framework as Learning with Label Proportions (LLP). Settings that perform a bag-wise aggregation of labels include Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) [2]. In MIL, the aggregation is logical rather than statistical: each bag is provided with a binary label expressing an OR condition on all the labels contained in the bag. More general setting also exist [3] [4] [5]. Many practical scenarios fit the LLP abstraction. (a) Only aggregated labels can be obtained due to the physical limits of measurement tools [6] [7] [8] [9]. (b) The problem is semi- or unsupervised but domain experts have knowledge about the unlabelled samples in form of expectation, as pseudomeasurement [5]. (c) Labels existed once but they are now given in an aggregated fashion for privacy-preserving reasons, as in medical databases [10], fraud detection [11], house price market, election results, census data, etc. . (d) This setting also arises in computer vision [12] [13] [14]. Related work. Two papers independently introduce the problem, [12] and [9]. In the first the authors propose a hierarchical probabilistic model which generates labels consistent with the proportions, and make inference through MCMC sampling. Similarly, the second and its follower [6] offer a 1 variety of standard machine learning methods designed to generate self-consistent labels. [15] gives a Bayesian interpretation of LLP where the key distribution is estimated through an RBM. Other ideas rely on structural learning of Bayesian networks with missing data [7], and on K - MEANS clustering to solve preliminary label assignment in order to resort to fully supervised methods [13] [8]. Recent SVM implementations [11] [16] outperform most of the other known methods. Theoretical works on LLP belong to two main categories. The first contains uniform convergence results, for the estimators of label proportions [1], or the estimator of the mean operator [17]. The second contains approximation results for the classifier [17]. Our work builds upon their Mean Map algorithm, that relies on the trick that the logistic loss may be split in two, a convex part depending only on the observations, and a linear part involving a sufficient statistic for the label, the mean operator. Being able to estimate the mean operator means being able to fit a classifier without using labels. In [17], this estimation relies on a restrictive homogeneity assumption that the class-conditional estimation of features does not depend on the bags. Experiments display the limits of this assumption [11][16]. Contributions. In this paper we consider linear classifiers, but our results hold for kernelized formulations following [17]. We first show that the trick about the logistic loss can be generalized, and the mean operator is actually minimally sufficient for a wide set of ?symmetric? proper scoring losses with no class-dependent misclassification cost, that encompass the logistic, square and Matsushita losses [18]. We then provide an algorithm, LMM, which estimates the mean operator via a Laplacian-based manifold regularizer without calling to the homogeneity assumption. We show that under a weak distinguishability assumption between bags, our estimation of the mean operator is all the better as the observations norm increase. This, as we show, cannot hold for the Mean Map estimator. Then, we provide a data-dependent approximation bound for our classifier with respect to the optimal classifier, that is shown to be better than previous bounds [17]. We also show that the manifold regularizer?s solution is tightly related to the linear separability of the bags. We then provide an iterative algorithm, AMM, that takes as input the solution of LMM and optimizes it further over the set of consistent labelings. We ground the algorithm in a uniform convergence result involving a generalization of Rademacher complexities for the LLP setting. The bound involves a bag-empirical surrogate risk for which we show that AMM optimizes tractable bounds. All our theoretical results hold for any symmetric proper scoring loss. Experiments are provided on fourteen domains, ranging from hundreds to hundreds of thousands of examples, comparing AMM and LMM to their contenders: Mean Map, InvCal [11] and ?SVM [16]. They display that AMM and LMM outperform their contenders, and sometimes even compete with the fully supervised learner while requiring few proportions only. Tests on the largest domains display the scalability of both algorithms. Such experimental evidence seriously questions the safety of privacy-preserving summarization of data, whenever accurate aggregates and informative individual features are available. Section (2) presents our algorithms and related theoretical results. Section (3) presents experiments. Section (4) concludes. A Supplementary Material [19] includes proofs and additional experiments. 2 LLP and the mean operator: theoretical results and algorithms Learning setting Hereafter, boldfaces like p denote vectors, whose coordinates are denoted pl for . . l = 1, 2, .... For any m ? N? , let [m] = {1, 2, ..., m}. Let ?m = {? ? {?1, 1}m } and X ? Rd . Examples are couples (observation, label) ? X ? ?1 , sampled i.i.d. according to some unknown . but fixed distribution D. Let S = {(xi , yi ), i ? [m]} ? Dm denote a size-m sample. In Learning with Label Proportions (LLP), we do not observe directly S but S|y , which denotes S with labels removed; we are given its partition in n > 0 bags, S|y = ?j Sj , j ? [n], along with their respective . ? . label proportions ? ?j = P[y = +1|Sj ] and bag proportions p?j = mj /m with mj = card(Sj ). (This generalizes to a cover of S, by copying examples among bags.) The ?bag assignment function? that partitions S is unknown but fixed. In real world domains, it would rather be known, e.g. state, gender, age band. A classifier is a function h : X ? R, from a set of classifiers H. HL denotes the set of . linear classifiers, noted h?P (x) = ? > x with ? ? X. A (surrogate) loss is a function F : R ? R+ . . We let F (S, h) = (1/m) i F (yi h(xi )) denote the empirical surrogate risk on S corresponding to loss F . For the sake of clarity, indexes i, j and k respectively refer to examples, bags and features. The mean operator and its minimal sufficiency We define the (empirical) mean operator as: 1 X . ?S = yi x i . (1) m i 2 Algorithm 1 Laplacian Mean Map (LMM) Input Sj , ? ?j , j ? [n]; ? > 0 (7); w (7); V (8); permissible ? (2); ? > 0; ? ? ? arg minX?R2n?d `(L, X) using (7) (Lemma 2) Step 1 : let B P ?+ ? (1 ? ? ?? ) ? S ? j p?j (? Step 2 : let ? ?j b ?j )b j j ? S ) + ?k?k22 (3) Step 3 : let ??? ? arg min? F? (S|y , ?, ? Return ??? Table 1: Correspondence between permissible functions ? and the corresponding loss F? . loss name logistic loss square loss Matsushita loss F? (x) log(1 + exp(?x)) (1 ? x)2 ? ?x + 1 + x2 ??(x) ?x log x ? (1 ? x) log(1 ? x) x(1 ? x) p x(1 ? x) The estimation of the mean operator ?S appears to be a learning bottleneck in the LLP setting [17]. The fact that the mean operator is sufficient to learn a classifier without the label information motivates the notion of minimal sufficient statistic for features in this context. Let F be a set of loss functions, H be a set of classifiers, I be a subset of features. Some quantity t(S) is said to be a minimal sufficient statistic for I with respect to F and H iff: for any F ? F, any h ? H and any two samples S and S0 , the quantity F (S, h) ? F (S0 , h) does not depend on I iff t(S) = t(S0 ). This definition can be motivated from the one in statistics by building losses from log likelihoods. The following Lemma motivates further the mean operator in the LLP setting, as it is the minimal sufficient statistic for a broad set of proper scoring losses that encompass the logistic and square losses [18]. The proper scoring losses we consider, hereafter called ?symmetric? (SPSL), are twice differentiable, non-negative and such that misclassification cost is not label-dependent. Lemma 1 ?S is a minimal sufficient statistic for the label variable, with respect to SPSL and HL . ([19], Subsection 2.1) This property, very useful for LLP, may also be exploited in other weakly supervised tasks [2]. Up to constant scalings that play no role in its minimization, the empirical surrogate risk corresponding to any SPSL, F? (S, h), can be written with loss: . F? (x) = ?? (?x) ?(0) + ?? (?x) . = a? + , ?(0) ? ?(1/2) b? (2) and ? is a permissible function [20, 18], i.e. dom(?) ? [0, 1], ? is strictly convex, differentiable and symmetric with respect to 1/2. ?? is the convex conjugate of ?. Table 1 shows examples of F? . It follows from Lemma 1 and its proof, that any F? (S?), can be written for any ? ? h? ? HL as: ! 1 b? X X . > F? (?? xi ) ? ? > ?S = F? (S|y , ?, ?S ) , (3) F? (S, ?) = 2m 2 ? i where ? ? ?1 . The Laplacian Mean Map (LMM) algorithm The sum in eq. (3) is convex and differentiable in ?. Hence, once we have an accurate estimator of ?S , we can then easily fit ? to minimize F? (S|y , ?, ?S ). This two-steps strategy is implemented in LMM in algorithm 1. ?S can be retrieved from 2n bag-wise, label-wise unknown averages b?j : ?S = (1/2) n X j=1 p?j X (2? ?j + ?(1 ? ?))b?j , (4) ???1 . . with b?jP= ES [x|?, j] denoting these 2n unknowns (for j ? [n], ? ? ?1 ), and let bj = (1/mj ) xi ?Sj xi . The 2n b?j s are solution of a set of n identities that are (in matrix form): B ? ?> B? 3 = 0 , (5) . . ? D IAG(1 ? ?)] ? > ? R2n?n and B? ? R2n?d is where B = [b1 |b2 |...|bn ]> ? Rn?d , ? = [D IAG(?)| the matrix of unknowns: h i> . -1 +1 +1 -1 -1 b |b |...|b B? = . (6) b+1 |b |...|b n | 1 2{z } | 1 2{z n} ? + ( B )> ( B )> System (5) is underdetermined, unless one makes the homogeneity assumption that yields the Mean Map estimator [17]. Rather than making such a restrictive assumption, we regularize the cost that ? ? = arg minX?R2n?d `(L, X), with: brings (5) with a manifold regularizer [21], and search for B   . `(L, X) = tr (B> ? X> ?)Dw (B ? ?> X) + ?tr X> LX , (7) . and ? > 0. Dw = D IAG(w) is a user-fixed bias matrix with w ? Rn+,? (and w 6= p? in general) and:   La | 0 . L = ?I + ? R2n?2n , (8) 0 | La . where La = D ? V ? Rn?n is the Laplacian of the bag similarities. V is a symmetric similarity . P matrix with non negative coordinates, and the diagonal matrix D satisfies djj = j 0 vjj 0 , ?j ? [n]. The size of the Laplacian is O(n2 ), which is very small compared to O(m2 ) if there are not many bags. One can interpret the Laplacian regularization as smoothing the estimates of b?j w.r.t the similarity of the respective bags. ? ? ? to minX?R2n?d `(L, X) is B ? = ?Dw ?> + ? L Lemma 2 The solution B ?1 ?Dw B. ([19], Subsection 2.2). This Lemma explains the role of penalty ?I in (8) as ?Dw ?> and L have respectively n- and (? 1)-dim null spaces, so the inversion may not be possible. Even when this does not happen exactly, this may incur numerical instabilities in computing the inverse. For domains ?? denote the row-wise where this risk exists, picking a small ? > 0 solves the problem. Let b j ? ? following (6), from which we compute ? ? S following (4) when we use these decomposition of B . 2n estimates in lieu of the true b?j . We compare ?j = ? ? j b+ ?j )b? j ? (1 ? ? j , ?j ? [n] to our estimates P P . + ? ? ? (1 ? ? ? ?j = ? ? S = j p?j ? ?j. ? ?j b ? ) b , ?j ? [n], granted that ? = p ? ? and ? j j S j j j j ? . Theorem 3 Suppose that ? satisfies ? 2 ? ((?(2n)?1 ) + maxj6=j 0 vjj 0 )/ minj wj . Let M = . . ? = [? ? 1 |? ? 2 |...|? ? n ]> ? Rn?d and ?(V, B? ) = ((?(2n)?1 ) + [?1 |?2 |...|?n ]> ? Rn?d , M maxj6=j 0 vjj 0 )2 kB? kF . The following holds:  ?1 ? ? ? kF ? kM ? M n 2 min wj2 ? ?(V, B? ) . (9) j ([19], Subsection 2.3) The multiplicative factor to ? in (9) is roughly O(n5/2 ) when there is no large discrepancy in the bias matrix Dw , so the upperbound is driven by ?(., .) when there are not many bags. We have studied its variations when the ?distinguishability? between bags increases. This setting is interesting because in this case we may kill two birds in one shot, with the estimation of M and the subsequent learning problem potentially easier, in particular for linear separators. We consider two examples for vjj 0 , the first being (half) the normalized association [22]:   1 ASSOC (Sj , Sj ) ASSOC (Sj 0 , Sj 0 ) . nc vjj 0 = + = NASSOC(Sj , Sj 0 ) , (10) 2 ASSOC(Sj , Sj ? Sj 0 ) ASSOC(Sj 0 , Sj ? Sj 0 ) G,s vjj 0 . exp(?kbj ? bj 0 k2 /s) , s > 0 . (11) . P 0 2 Here, ASSOC(Sj , Sj 0 ) = x?Sj ,x0 ?Sj 0 kx ? x k2 [22]. To put these two similarity measures in the context of Theorem 3, consider the setting where we can make assumption (D1) that there exists a small constant ? > 0 such that kbj ? bj 0 k22 ? ? max?,j kb?j k22 , ?j, j 0 ? [n]. This is a weak distinguishability property as if no such ? exists, then the centers of distinct bags may just be confounded. Consider also the additional assumption, (D2), that there exists ?0 > 0 such that . maxj d2j ? ?0 , ?j ? [n], where dj = maxxi ,x0i ?Sj kxi ? xi0 k2 is a bag?s diameter. In the following Lemma, the little-oh notation is with respect to the ?largest? unknown in eq. (4), i.e. max?,j kb?j k2 . = 4 Algorithm 2 Alternating Mean Map (AMM OPT ) Input LMM parameters + optimization strategy OPT ? {min, max} + convergence predicate PR Step 1 : let ??0 ? LMM(LMM parameters) and t ? 0 Step 2 : repeat Step 2.1 : let ?t ? arg OPT????? F? (S|y , ?t , ?S (?)) Step 2.2 : let ??t+1 ? arg min? F? (S|y , ?, ?S (?t )) + ?k?k22 Step 2.3 : let t ? t + 1 until predicate PR is true . Return ??? = arg mint F? (S|y , ??t+1 , ?S (?t )) Lemma 4 There exists ?? > 0 such that ?? ? ?? , the following holds: (i) ?(Vnc , B? ) = o(1) under assumptions (D1 + D2); (ii) ?(VG,s , B? ) = o(1) under assumption (D1), ?s > 0. ([19], Subsection 2.4) Hence, provided a weak (D1) or stronger (D1+D2) distinguishability assump? gets smaller with the increase of the norm of the tion holds, the divergence between M and M unknowns b?j . The proof of the Lemma suggests that the convergence may be faster for VG,s . The following Lemma shows that both similarities also partially encode the hardness of solving the classification problem with linear separators, so that the manifold regularizer ?limits? the distortion of ?? s between two bags that tend not to be linearly separable. the b . G,. nc Lemma 5 Take vjj 0 ? {vjj 0 , vjj 0 }. There exists 0 < ?l < ?n < 1 such that (i) if vjj 0 > ?n then Sj , Sj 0 are not linearly separable, and if vjj 0 < ?l then Sj , Sj 0 are linearly separable. G,s ([19], Subsection 2.5) This Lemma is an advocacy to fit s in a data-dependent way in vjj 0 . The question may be raised as to whether finite samples approximation results like Theorem 3 can be proven for the Mean Map estimator [17]. [19], Subsection 2.6 answers by the negative. In the Laplacian Mean Map algorithm (LMM, Algorithm 1), Steps 1 and 2 have now been described. Step 3 is a differentiable convex minimization problem for ? that does not use the labels, so it does not present any technical difficulty. An interesting question is how much our classifier ??? in Step 3 diverges from the one that would be computed with the true expression for ?S , ?? . It is not hard to show that Lemma 17 in Altun and Smola [23], and Corollary 9 in Quadrianto et al. [17] hold for ?? ? ?? k2 ? (2?)?1 k? ? S ? ?S k22 . The following Theorem shows a data-dependent LMM so that k? 2 approximation bound that can be significantly better, when it holds that ??> xi , ???> xi ? ?0 ([0, 1]), ?i (?0 is the first derivative). We call this setting proper scoring compliance (PSC) [18]. PSC always holds for the logistic and Matsushita losses for which ?0 ([0, 1]) = R. For other losses like the square loss for which ?0 ([0, 1]) = [?1, 1], shrinking the observations in a ball of sufficiently small radius is sufficient to ensure this. Theorem 6 Let fk ? Rm denote the vector encoding the k th feature variable in S : fki = xik . ? denote the feature matrix with column-wise normalized feature vectors: f?k = (k ? [d]). Let F P ? S ? ?S k22 , with: (d/ k0 kfk0 k22 )(d?1)/(2d) fk . Under PSC, we have k??? ? ?? k22 ? (2? + q)?1 k? q . = ?> F ? det F 2e?1 ? (> 0) , 00 m b? ? (?0?1 (q 0 /?)) . . (12) . ? S k2 })]. Here, x? = maxi kxi k2 and ?00 = (?0 )0 . for some q 0 ? I = [?(x? + max{k?S k2 , k? ([19], Subsection 2.7) To see how large q can be, consider the simple case where all eigenvalues of ?> F ? , ?k ( F ?> F ?) ? [?? ? ?] for small ?. In this case, q is proportional to the average feature ?norm?: F  P ?> F ? tr F> F kxi k22 det F = + o(?) = i + o(?) . m md md 5 P . The Alternating Mean Map (AMM) algorithm Let us denote ??? = {? ? ?m : i:xi ?Sj ?i = ? and (2? ?j ? 1)mj , ?j ? P[n]} the set of labelings that are consistent with the observed proportions ?, . ?S (?) = (1/m) i ?i xi the biased mean operator computed from some ? ? ??? . Notice that the true mean operator ?S = ?S (?) for at least one ? ? ??? . The Alternating Mean Map algorithm, (AMM, Algorithm 2), starts with the output of LMM and then optimizes it further over the set of consistent labelings. At each iteration, it first picks a consistent labeling in ??? that is the best (OPT = min) or the worst (OPT = max) for the current classifier (Step 2.1) and then fits a classifier ?? on the given set of labels (Step 2.2). The algorithm then iterates until a convergence predicate is met, which tests whether the difference between two values for F? (., ., .) is too small (AMMmin ), or the number of iterations exceeds a user-specified limit (AMMmax ). The classifier returned ??? is the best in the sequence. In the case of AMMmin , it is the last of the sequence as risk F? (S|y , ., .) cannot increase. Again, Step 2.2 is a convex minimization with no technical difficulty. Step 2.1 is combinatorial. It can be solved in time almost linear in m [19] (Subsection 2.8). ? Lemma 7 The running time of Step 2.1 in AMM is O(m), where the tilde notation hides log-terms. Bag-Rademacher generalization bounds for LLP We relate the ?min? and ?max? strategies of AMM by uniform convergence bounds involving the true surrogate risk, i.e. integrating the unknown distribution D and the true labels (which we may never know). Previous uniform convergence bounds for LLP focus on coarser grained problems, like the estimation of label proportions [1]. We rely on a LLP generalization of Rademacher complexity [24, 25]. Let F : R ? R+ be a loss function and H a set of classifiers. The bag empirical Rademacher complexity of sample S, . b b , is defined as Rm = E???m suph?H {E?0 ???? ES [?(x)F (? 0 (x)h(x))]. The usual empirical Rm b Rademacher complexity equals Rm for card(??? ) = 1. The Label Proportion Complexity of H is: L2m . = s ` ED2m EI/2 ,I/2 sup ES [?1 (x)(? ?|2 (x) ? ? ?|1 (x))h(x)] . 1 2 (13) h?H Here, each of I/2l , l = 1, 2 is a random (uniformly) subset of [2m] of cardinal m. Let S(I/2l ) be the size-m subset of S that corresponds to the indexes. Take l = 1, 2 and any xi ? S. If i 6? I/2l then s ? ?|ls (xi ) = ? ?|l` (xi ) is xi ?s bag?s label proportion measured on S\S(I/2l ). Else, ? ?|2 (xi ) is its bag?s /2 ` label proportion measured on S(I2 ) and ? ?|1 (xi ) is its label (i.e. a bag?s label proportion that would . contain only xi ). Finally, ?1 (x) = 2 ? 1x?S(I/2 ) ? 1 ? ?1 . L2m tends to be all the smaller as 1 classifiers in H have small magnitude on bags whose label proportion is close to 1/2. Theorem 8 Suppose ?h? ? 0 s.t. |h(x)| ? h? , ?x, ?h. Then, for any loss F? , any training sample of size m and any 0 < ? ? 1, with probability > 1 ? ?, the following bound holds over all h ? H:  r 2h? 1 2 b ED [F? (yh(x))] ? E??? ES [F? (?(x)h(x))] + 2Rm + L2m + 4 +1 log (14) . b? 2m ? Furthermore, under PSC (Theorem 6), we have for any F? : b Rm ? 2b? E?m sup {ES [?(x)(? ? (x) ? (1/2))h(x)]} . (15) h?H b ([19], Subsection 2.9) Despite similar shapes (13) (15), Rm and L2m behave differently: when bags b are pure (? ?j ? {0, 1}, ?j), L2m = 0. When bags are impure (? ?j = 1/2, ?j), Rm = 0. As bags get impure, the bag-empirical surrogate risk, E??? ES [F? (?(x)h(x))], also tends to increase. AMMmin and AMMmax respectively minimize a lowerbound and an upperbound of this risk. 3 Experiments Algorithms We compare LMM, AMM (F? = logistic loss) to the original MM [17], InvCal [11], conv?SVM and alter-?SVM [16] (linear kernels). To make experiments extensive, we test several initializations for AMM are not displayed in Algorithm 2 (Step 1): (i) the edge mean map estimator, P thatP . . ? ?SEMM = 1/m2 ( i yi )( i xi ) (AMM EMM ), (ii) the constant estimator ? ?S1 = 1 (AMM1 ), and finally AMM 10ran which runs 10 random initial models (k?0 k2 ? 1), and selects the one with smallest risk; 6 0.8 MM LMMG LMMG,s LMMnc 0.7 1.0 4 6 divergence 0.6 AMMMM AMMG AMMG,s AMMnc AMM10ran 0.7 0.6 2 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.1 AUC rel. to Oracle 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 AUC rel. to Oracle 1.0 MM LMMG LMMG,s LMMnc AUC rel. to Oracle AUC rel. to MM 1.3 0.6 0.6 (a) 0.8 entropy 1.0 0.6 0.8 entropy (b) AMMG 0.4 1.0 Bigger domains 0.2 10^?5 Small domains 10^?3 10^?1 #bag/#instances (c) (d) Figure 1: Relative AUC (wrt MM) as homogeneity assumption is violated (a). Relative AUC (wrt Oracle) vs entropy on heart for LMM(b), AMMmin (c). Relative AUC vs n/m for AMMmin G,s (d). Table 2: Small domains results. #win/#lose for row vs column. Bold faces means p-val < .001 for Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Top-left subtable is for one-shot methods, bottom-right iterative ones, bottom-left compare the two. Italic is state-of-the-art. Grey cells highlight the best of all (AMMmin G ). SVM AMMmax AMM min LMM algorithm G G,s nc InvCal MM G G,s 10ran MM G G,s 10ran conv-? alter-? MM 36/4 38/3 28/12 4/46 33/16 38/11 35/14 27/22 25/25 27/23 25/25 23/27 21/29 0/50 InvCal LMM G G,s nc 30/6 3/37 3/47 26/24 35/14 33/17 24/26 23/27 22/28 21/29 21/29 2/48 0/50 2/37 4/46 25/25 30/20 30/20 22/28 22/28 21/28 22/28 19/31 2/48 0/50 4/46 32/18 37/13 35/15 26/24 25/25 26/24 24/26 24/26 2/48 0/50 46/4 47/3 47/3 44/6 45/5 45/5 45/5 50/0 2/48 20/30 AMM MM G 31/7 24/11 20/30 15/35 17/33 15/35 19/31 4/46 0/50 7/15 16/34 13/37 14/36 13/37 15/35 3/47 0/50 min AMM G,s . 10ran MM G max G,s 10ran conv?SVM min e.g. AMMmin G,s wins on AMMG 7 times, loses 15, with 28 ties 19/31 13/37 14/36 13/37 17/33 3/47 0/50 8/42 10/40 12/38 7/43 4/46 3/47 13/14 15/22 19/30 3/47 3/47 16/22 20/29 3/47 2/48 17/32 4/46 1/49 0/50 0/50 27/23 this is the same procedure of alter-?SVM. Matrix V (eqs. (10), (11)) used is indicated in subscript: LMM / AMM G , LMM / AMM G,s , LMM / AMM nc respectively denote v G,s with s = 1, v G,s with s learned on cross validation (CV; validation ranges indicated in [19]) and v nc . For space reasons, results not displayed in the paper can be found in [19], Section 3 (including runtime comparisons, and detailed results by domain). We split the algorithms in two groups, one-shot and iterative. The latter, including AMM, (conv/alter)-?SVM, iteratively optimize a cost over labelings (always consistent with label proportions for AMM, not always for (conv/alter)-?SVM). The former (LMM, InvCal) do not and are thus much faster. Tests are done on a 4-core 3.2GHz CPUs Mac with 32GB of RAM. AMM / LMM / MM are implemented in R. Code for InvCal and ?SVM is [16]. Simulated domains, MM and the homogeneity assumption The testing metric is the AUC. Prior to testing on our domains, we generate 16 domains that gradually move away the b?j away from each other (wrt j), thus violating increasingly the homogeneity assumption [17]. The degree of violation is measured as kB? ? B? kF , where B? is the homogeneity assumption matrix, that replaces all b?j by b? for ? ? {?1, 1}, see eq. (5). Figure 1 (a) displays the ratios of the AUC of LMM to the AUC of MM. It shows that LMM is all the better with respect to MM as the homogeneity assumption is violated. Furthermore, learning s in LMM improves the results. Experiments on the simulated domain of [16] on which MM obtains zero accuracy also display that our algorithms perform better (1 iteration only of AMMmax brings 100% AUC). Small and large domains experiments We convert 10 small domains [19] (m ? 1000) and 4 bigger ones (m > 8000) from UCI[26] into the LLP framework. We cast to one-against-all classification when the problem is multiclass. On large domains, the bag assignment function is inspired by [1]: we craft bags according to a selected feature value, and then we remove that feature from the data. This conforms to the idea that bag assignment is structured and non random in real-world problems. Most of our small domains, however, do not have a lot of features, so instead of clustering on one feature and then discard it, we run K - MEANS on the whole data to make the bags, for K = n ? 2[5] . Small domains results We performe 5-folds nested CV comparisons on the 10 domains = 50 AUC values for each algorithm. Table 2 synthesises the results [19], splitting one-shot and iterative algo7 Table 3: AUCs on big domains (name: #instances?#features). I=cap-shape, II=habitat, III=cap-colour, IV=race, V=education, VI=country, VII=poutcome, VIII=job (number of bags); for each feature, the best result over one-shot, and over iterative algorithms is bold faced. algorithm AMM max AMM min EMM MM LMM G LMM G,s AMM EMM AMM MM AMM G AMM G,s AMM 1 AMM EMM AMM MM AMM G AMM G,s AMM 1 Oracle mushroom: 8124 ? 108 I(6) II(7) III(10) 55.61 51.99 73.92 94.91 85.12 89.81 89.18 89.24 95.90 93.04 59.45 95.50 95.84 95.01 99.82 59.80 98.79 98.57 98.24 99.45 99.01 99.45 99.57 98.49 3.32 55.16 65.32 65.32 73.48 99.81 76.68 5.02 14.70 89.43 69.43 15.74 50.44 3.28 97.31 26.67 99.70 99.30 84.26 1.29 99.8 adult: 48842 ? 89 IV(5) V(16) VI(42) marketing: 45211 ? 41 V(4) VII(4) VIII(12) census: 299285 ? 381 IV(5) VIII(9) VI(42) 43.91 80.93 81.79 84.89 49.97 83.73 83.41 81.18 81.32 54.46 82.57 82.75 82.69 75.22 90.55 63.49 54.64 54.66 49.27 61.39 52.85 51.61 52.03 65.13 51.48 48.46 50.58 66.88 66.70 79.52 56.05 75.21 75.80 84.88 87.86 89.68 87.61 89.93 89.09 71.20 50.75 48.32 80.33 57.97 94.31 47.50 76.65 78.40 78.94 56.98 77.39 82.55 78.53 75.80 69.63 71.63 72.16 70.95 67.52 90.55 66.61 74.01 78.78 80.12 70.19 80.67 81.96 81.96 80.05 56.62 81.39 81.39 81.39 77.67 90.50 54.50 50.71 51.00 51.00 55.73 75.27 75.16 75.16 64.96 55.63 51.34 47.27 47.27 61.16 75.55 44.31 49.70 51.93 65.81 43.10 58.19 57.52 53.98 66.62 57.48 56.90 34.29 34.29 71.94 79.43 56.25 90.37 71.75 60.71 87.71 84.91 88.28 83.54 88.94 77.14 66.76 67.54 74.45 81.07 94.37 57.87 75.52 76.31 69.74 40.80 68.36 76.99 52.13 56.72 66.71 58.67 77.46 52.70 53.42 94.45 rithms. LMMG,s outperforms all one-shot algorithms. LMMG and LMMG,s are competitive with many iterative algorithms, but lose against their AMM counterpart, which proves that additional optimization over labels is beneficial. AMMG and AMMG,s are confirmed as the best variant of AMM, the first being the best in this case. Surprisingly, all mean map algorithms, even one-shots, are clearly superior to ?SVMs. Further results [19] reveal that ?SVM performances are dampened by learning classifiers with the ?inverted polarity? ? i.e. flipping the sign of the classifier improves its performances. Figure 1 (b, c) presents the AUC relative to the Oracle (which learns the classifier knowing all labels and minimizing the logistic loss), as a function of the Gini entropy of bag assignment, . gini(S) = 4Ej [? ?j (1 ? ? ?j )]. For an entropy close to 1, we were expecting a drop in performances. The unexpected [19] is that on some domains, large entropies (? .8) do not prevent AMMmin to compete with the Oracle. No such pattern clearly emerges for ?SVM and AMMmax [19]. Big domains results We adopt a 1/5 hold-out method. Scalability results [19] display that every method using v nc and ?SVM are not scalable to big domains; in particular, the estimated time for a single run of alter-?SVM is >100 hours on the adult domain. Table 3 presents the results on the big domains, distinguishing the feature used for bag assignment. Big domains confirm the efficiency of LMM + AMM . No approach clearly outperforms the rest, although LMM G,s is often the best one-shot. Synthesis Figure 1 (d) gives the AUCs of AMMmin G over the Oracle for all domains [19], as a function of the ?degree of supervision?, n/m (=1 if the problem is fully supervised). Noticeably, on 90% of the runs, AMMmin G gets an AUC representing at least 70% of the Oracle?s. Results on big domains can be remarkable: on the census domain with bag assignment on race, 5 proportions are sufficient for an AUC 5 points below the Oracle?s ? which learns with 200K labels. 4 Conclusion In this paper, we have shown that efficient learning in the LLP setting is possible, for general loss functions, via the mean operator and without resorting to the homogeneity assumption. Through its estimation, the sufficiency allows one to resort to standard learning procedures for binary classification, practically implementing a reduction between machine learning problems [27]; hence the mean operator estimation may be a viable shortcut to tackle other weakly supervised settings [2] [3] [4] [5]. Approximation results and generalization bounds are provided. Experiments display results that are superior to the state of the art, with algorithms that scale to big domains at affordable computational costs. Performances sometimes compete with the Oracle?s ? that learns knowing all labels ?, even on big domains. Such experimental finding poses severe implications on the reliability of privacy-preserving aggregation techniques with simple group statistics like proportions. Acknowledgments NICTA is funded by the Australian Government through the Department of Communications and the Australian Research Council through the ICT Centre of Excellence Program. The first author would like to acknowledge that part of this research was conducted during his internship at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. We thank A. Menon and D. Garc??a-Garc??a for useful discussions. 8 References [1] F.-X. Yu, S. Kumar, T. Jebara, and S.-F. Chang. On learning with label proportions. CoRR, abs/1402.5902, 2014. [2] T.-G. Dietterich, R.-H. Lathrop, and T. Lozano-P?erez. Solving the multiple instance problem with axisparallel rectangles. Artificial Intelligence, 89:31?71, 1997. [3] G.-S. Mann and A. McCallum. Generalized expectation criteria for semi-supervised learning of conditional random fields. In 46 th ACL, 2008. [4] J. Grac?a, K. Ganchev, and B. Taskar. Expectation maximization and posterior constraints. In NIPS*20, pages 569?576, 2007. [5] P. Liang, M.-I. Jordan, and D. Klein. Learning from measurements in exponential families. In 26 th ICML, pages 641?648, 2009. [6] D.-J. Musicant, J.-M. Christensen, and J.-F. Olson. Supervised learning by training on aggregate outputs. In 7 th ICDM, pages 252?261, 2007. [7] J. Hern?andez-Gonz?alez, I. Inza, and J.-A. Lozano. Learning bayesian network classifiers from label proportions. Pattern Recognition, 46(12):3425?3440, 2013. [8] M. Stolpe and K. Morik. Learning from label proportions by optimizing cluster model selection. In 15th ECMLPKDD, pages 349?364, 2011. [9] B.-C. Chen, L. Chen, R. Ramakrishnan, and D.-R. Musicant. Learning from aggregate views. In 22 th ICDE, pages 3?3, 2006. [10] J. Wojtusiak, K. Irvin, A. Birerdinc, and A.-V. Baranova. Using published medical results and nonhomogenous data in rule learning. In 10 th ICMLA, pages 84?89, 2011. [11] S. R?uping. Svm classifier estimation from group probabilities. In 27 th ICML, pages 911?918, 2010. [12] K. Hendrik and N. de Freitas. Learning about individuals from group statistics. In 21 th UAI, pages 332?339, 2005. [13] S. Chen, B. Liu, M. Qian, and C. Zhang. Kernel k-means based framework for aggregate outputs classification. In 9 th ICDMW, pages 356?361, 2009. [14] K.-T. Lai, F.X. Yu, M.-S. Chen, and S.-F. Chang. Video event detection by inferring temporal instance labels. In 11 th CVPR, 2014. [15] K. Fan, H. Zhang, S. Yan, L. Wang, W. Zhang, and J. Feng. Learning a generative classifier from label proportions. Neurocomputing, 139:47?55, 2014. [16] F.-X. Yu, D. Liu, S. Kumar, T. Jebara, and S.-F. Chang. ?SVM for Learning with Label Proportions. In 30th ICML, pages 504?512, 2013. [17] N. Quadrianto, A.-J. Smola, T.-S. Caetano, and Q.-V. Le. Estimating labels from label proportions. JMLR, 10:2349?2374, 2009. [18] R. Nock and F. Nielsen. Bregman divergences and surrogates for learning. IEEE Trans.PAMI, 31:2048? 2059, 2009. [19] G. Patrini, R. Nock, P. Rivera, and T-S. Caetano. (Almost) no label no cry - supplementary material?. In NIPS*27, 2014. [20] M.J. Kearns and Y. Mansour. On the boosting ability of top-down decision tree learning algorithms. In 28 th ACM STOC, pages 459?468, 1996. [21] M. Belkin, P. Niyogi, and V. Sindhwani. Manifold regularization: A geometric framework for learning from labeled and unlabeled examples. JMLR, 7:2399?2434, 2006. [22] J. Shi and J. Malik. Normalized cuts and image segmentation. IEEE Trans.PAMI, 22:888?905, 2000. [23] Y. Altun and A.-J. Smola. Unifying divergence minimization and statistical inference via convex duality. In 19th COLT, pages 139?153, 2006. [24] P.-L. Bartlett and S. Mendelson. Rademacher and gaussian complexities: Risk bounds and structural results. JMLR, 3:463?482, 2002. [25] V. Koltchinskii and D. Panchenko. Empirical margin distributions and bounding the generalization error of combined classifiers. Ann. of Stat., 30:1?50, 2002. [26] K. Bache and M. Lichman. UCI machine learning repository, 2013. [27] A. Beygelzimer, V. Dani, T. Hayes, J. Langford, and B. Zadrozny. Error limiting reductions between classification tasks. In 22 th ICML, pages 49?56, 2005. 9
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Consistent Binary Classification with Generalized Performance Metrics Oluwasanmi Koyejo? Department of Psychology, Stanford University sanmi@stanford.edu Nagarajan Natarajan? Department of Computer Science, University of Texas at Austin naga86@cs.utexas.edu Pradeep Ravikumar Department of Computer Science, University of Texas at Austin pradeepr@cs.utexas.edu Inderjit S. Dhillon Department of Computer Science, University of Texas at Austin inderjit@cs.utexas.edu Abstract Performance metrics for binary classification are designed to capture tradeoffs between four fundamental population quantities: true positives, false positives, true negatives and false negatives. Despite significant interest from theoretical and applied communities, little is known about either optimal classifiers or consistent algorithms for optimizing binary classification performance metrics beyond a few special cases. We consider a fairly large family of performance metrics given by ratios of linear combinations of the four fundamental population quantities. This family includes many well known binary classification metrics such as classification accuracy, AM measure, F-measure and the Jaccard similarity coefficient as special cases. Our analysis identifies the optimal classifiers as the sign of the thresholded conditional probability of the positive class, with a performance metric-dependent threshold. The optimal threshold can be constructed using simple plug-in estimators when the performance metric is a linear combination of the population quantities, but alternative techniques are required for the general case. We propose two algorithms for estimating the optimal classifiers, and prove their statistical consistency. Both algorithms are straightforward modifications of standard approaches to address the key challenge of optimal threshold selection, thus are simple to implement in practice. The first algorithm combines a plug-in estimate of the conditional probability of the positive class with optimal threshold selection. The second algorithm leverages recent work on calibrated asymmetric surrogate losses to construct candidate classifiers. We present empirical comparisons between these algorithms on benchmark datasets. 1 Introduction Binary classification performance is often measured using metrics designed to address the shortcomings of classification accuracy. For instance, it is well known that classification accuracy is an inappropriate metric for rare event classification problems such as medical diagnosis, fraud detection, click rate prediction and text retrieval applications [1, 2, 3, 4]. Instead, alternative metrics better tuned to imbalanced classification (such as the F1 measure) are employed. Similarly, cost-sensitive metrics may useful for addressing asymmetry in real-world costs associated with specific classes. An important theoretical question concerning metrics employed in binary classification is the characteri? Equal contribution to the work. 1 zation of the optimal decision functions. For example, the decision function that maximizes the accuracy metric (or equivalently minimizes the ?0-1 loss?) is well-known to be sign(P (Y = 1|x) 1/2). A similar result holds for cost-sensitive classification [5]. Recently, [6] showed that the optimal de? cision function for the F1 measure, can also be characterized as sign(P (Y = 1|x) ) for some ? 2 (0, 1). As we show in the paper, it is not a coincidence that the optimal decision function for these different metrics has a similar simple characterization. We make the observation that the different metrics used in practice belong to a fairly general family of performance metrics given by ratios of linear combinations of the four population quantities associated with the confusion matrix. We consider a family of performance metrics given by ratios of linear combinations of the four population quantities. Measures in this family include classification accuracy, false positive rate, false discovery rate, precision, the AM measure and the F-measure, among others. Our analysis shows that the optimal classifiers for all such metrics can be characterized as the sign of the thresholded conditional probability of the positive class, with a threshold that depends on the specific metric. This result unifies and generalizes known special cases including the AM measure analysis by Menon et al. [7], and the F measure analysis by Ye et al. [6]. It is known that minimizing (convex) surrogate losses, such as the hinge and the logistic loss, provably also minimizes the underlying 0-1 loss or equivalently maximizes the classification accuracy [8]. This motivates the next question we address in the paper: can one obtain algorithms that (a) can be used in practice for maximizing metrics from our family, and (b) are consistent with respect to the metric? To this end, we propose two algorithms for consistent empirical estimation of decision functions. The first algorithm combines a plug-in estimate of the conditional probability of the positive class with optimal threshold selection. The second leverages the asymmetric surrogate approach of Scott [9] to construct candidate classifiers. Both algorithms are simple modifications of standard approaches that address the key challenge of optimal threshold selection. Our analysis identifies why simple heuristics such as classification using class-weighted loss functions and logistic regression with threshold search are effective practical algorithms for many generalized performance metrics, and furthermore, that when implemented correctly, such apparent heuristics are in fact asymptotically consistent. Related Work. Binary classification accuracy and its cost-sensitive variants have been studied extensively. Here we highlight a few of the key results. The seminal work of [8] showed that minimizing certain surrogate loss functions enables us to control the probability of misclassification (the expected 0-1 loss). An appealing corollary of the result is that convex loss functions such as the hinge and logistic losses satisfy the surrogacy conditions, which establishes the statistical consistency of the resulting algorithms. Steinwart [10] extended this work to derive surrogates losses for other scenarios including asymmetric classification accuracy. More recently, Scott [9] characterized the optimal decision function for weighted 0-1 loss in cost-sensitive learning and extended the risk bounds of [8] to weighted surrogate loss functions. A similar result regarding the use of a threshold different than 1/2, and appropriately rebalancing the training data in cost-sensitive learning, was shown by [5]. Surrogate regret bounds for proper losses applied to class probability estimation were analyzed by Reid and Williamson [11] for differentiable loss functions. Extensions to the multi-class setting have also been studied (for example, Zhang [12] and Tewari and Bartlett [13]). Analysis of performance metrics beyond classification accuracy is limited. The optimal classifier remains unknown for many binary classification performance metrics of interest, and few results exist for identifying consistent algorithms for optimizing these metrics [7, 6, 14, 15]. Of particular relevance to our work are the AM measure maximization by Menon et al. [7], and the F measure maximization by Ye et al. [6]. 2 Generalized Performance Metrics Let X be either a countable set, or a complete separable metric space equipped with the standard Borel -algebra of measurable sets. Let X 2 X and Y 2 {0, 1} represent input and output random variables respectively. Further, let ? represent the set of all classifiers ? = {? : X 7! [0, 1]}. We assume the existence of a fixed unknown distribution P, and data is generated as iid. samples (X, Y ) ? P. Define the quantities: ? = P(Y = 1) and (?) = P(? = 1). The components of the confusion matrix are the fundamental population quantities for binary classification. They are the true positives (TP), false positives (FP), true negatives (TN) and false negatives 2 (FN), given by: TP(?, P) = P(Y = 1, ? = 1), FN(?, P) = P(Y = 1, ? = 0), FP(?, P) = P(Y = 0, ? = 1), TN(?, P) = P(Y = 0, ? = 0). (1) These quantities may be further decomposed as: FP(?, P) = (?) TP(?), FN(?, P) = ? TP(?), TN(?, P) = 1 (?) ? + TP(?). (2) Let L : ? ? P 7! R be a performance metric of interest. Without loss of generality, we assume that L is a utility metric, so that larger values are better. The Bayes utility L? is the optimal value of the performance metric, i.e., L? = sup?2? L(?, P). The Bayes classifier ?? is the classifier that optimizes the performance metric, so L? = L(?? ), where: ?? = arg max L(?, P). ?2? We consider a family of classification metrics computed as the ratio of linear combinations of these fundamental population quantities (1). In particular, given constants (representing costs or weights) {a11 , a10 , a01 , a00 , a0 } and {b11 , b10 , b01 , b00 , b0 }, we consider the measure: L(?, P) = a0 + a11 TP + a10 FP + a01 FN + a00 TN b0 + b11 TP + b10 FP + b01 FN + b00 TN (3) where, for clarity, we have suppressed dependence of the population quantities on ? and P. Examples of performance metrics in this family include the AM measure [7], the F measure [6], the Jaccard similarity coefficient (JAC) [16] and Weighted Accuracy (WA): ? ? 1 TP TN (1 ?)TP + ?TN (1 + 2 )TP (1 + 2 )TP AM = + = , F = = , 2? + 2 ? 1 ? 2?(1 ?) (1 + 2 )TP + 2 FN + FP TP TP TP w1 TP + w2 TN JAC = = = , WA = . TP + FN + FP ? + FP + FN w1 TP + w2 TN + w3 FP + w4 FN Note that we allow the constants to depend on P. Other examples in this class include commonly used ratios such as the true positive rate (also known as recall) (TPR), true negative rate (TNR), precision (Prec), false negative rate (FNR) and negative predictive value (NPV): TPR = TP TN TP FN TN , TNR = , Prec = , FNR = , NPV = . TP + FN FP + TN TP + FP FN + TP TN + FN Interested readers are referred to [17] for a list of additional metrics in this class. By decomposing the population measures (1) using (2) we see that any performance metric in the family (3) has the equivalent representation: L(?) = c0 + c1 TP(?) + c2 (?) d0 + d1 TP(?) + d2 (?) (4) with the constants: c0 = a01 ? + a00 d0 = b01 ? + b00 a00 ? + a0 , b00 ? + b0 , c1 = a11 a10 d1 = b11 b10 a01 + a00 , b01 + b00 , c2 = a10 d2 = b10 a00 and b00 . Thus, it is clear from (4) that the family of performance metrics depends on the classifier ? only through the quantities TP(?) and (?). Optimal Classifier We now characterize the optimal classifier for the family of performance metrics defined in (4). Let ? represent the dominating measure on X . For the rest of this manuscript, we make the following assumption: Assumption 1. The marginal distribution P(X) is absolutely continuous with respect to the dominating measure ? on X so there exists a density ? that satisfies dP = ?d?. 3 To simplify notation, we use the standard d?(x) = dx. We also define the conditional probability ?x = P(Y = 1|X = x).R Applying Assumption 1, we can expand the terms TP(?) = R ? ?(x)?(x)dx and (?) = x2X ?(x)?(x)dx, so the performance metric (4) may be reprex2X x sented as: R c0 + x2X (c1 ?x + c2 )?(x)?(x)dx R L(?, P) = . d0 + x2X (d1 ?x + d2 )?(x)?(x) Our first main result identifies the Bayes classifier for all utility functions in the family (3), showing ? that they take the form ?? (x) = sign(?x ), where ? is a metric-dependent threshold, and the sign function is given by sign : R 7! {0, 1} as sign(t) = 1 if t 0 and sign(t) = 0 otherwise. Theorem 2. Let P be a distribution on X ? [0, 1] that satisfies Assumption 1, and let L be a performance metric in the family (3). Given the constants {c0 , c1 , c2 } and {d0 , d1 , d2 }, define: ? = d2 L ? c 2 . c 1 d1 L ? (5) 1. When c1 > d1 L? , the Bayes classifier ?? takes the form ?? (x) = sign(?x 2. When c1 < d1 L? , the Bayes classifier takes the form ?? (x) = sign( ? ? ) ?x ) The proof of the theorem involves examining the first-order optimality condition (see Appendix B). Remark 3. The specific form of the optimal classifier depends on the sign of c1 d1 L? , and L? is often unknown. In practice, one can often estimate loose upper and lower bounds of L? to determine the classifier. A number of useful results can be evaluated directly as instances of Theorem 2. For the F measure, L? we have that c1 = 1 + 2 and d2 = 1 with all other constants as zero. Thus, F? = 1+ 2 . This matches the optimal threshold for F1 metric specified by Zhao et al. [14]. For precision, we have that ? c1 = 1, d2 = 1 and all other constants are zero, so Prec = L? . This clarifies the observation that in practice, precision can be maximized by predicting only high confidence positives. For true positive ? rate (recall), we have that c1 = 1, d0 = ? and other constants are zero, so TPR = 0 recovering the known result that in practice, recall is maximized by predicting all examples as positives. For the Jaccard similarity coefficient c1 = 1, d1 = 1, d2 = 1, d0 = ? and other constants are zero, so L? ? JAC = 1+L? . When d1 = d2 = 0, the generalized metric is simply a linear combination of the four fundamental quantities. With this form, we can then recover the optimal classifier outlined by Elkan [5] for cost sensitive classification. Corollary 4. Let P be a distribution on X ? [0, 1] that satisfies Assumption 1, and let L be a performance metric in the family (3). Given the constants {c0 , c1 , c2 } and {d0 , d1 = 0, d2 = 0}, the optimal threshold (5) is ? = cc21 . ? Classification accuracy is in this family, with c1 = 2, c2 = 1, and it is well-known that ACC = 12 . ? Another case of interest is the AM metric, where c1 = 1, c2 = ?, so AM = ?, as shown in Menon et al. [7]. 3 Algorithms The characterization of the Bayes classifier for the family of performance metrics (4) given in Theorem 2 enables the design of practical classification algorithms with strong theoretical properties. In particular, the algorithms that we propose are intuitive and easy to implement. Despite their simplicity, we show that the proposed algorithms are consistent with respect to the measure of interest; a desirable property for a classification algorithm. We begin with a description of the algorithms, followed by a detailed analysis of consistency. Let {Xi , Yi }ni=1 denote iid. training instances drawn from a fixed unknown distribution P. For a given ? : X ! {0, 1},Pwe define the n following empirical quantities based on their population analogues: TPn (?) = n1 i=1 ?(Xi )Yi , P n!1 n!1 n and n (?) = n1 i=1 ?(Xi ). It is clear that TPn (?) ! TP(?; P) and n (?) ! (?; P). 4 Consider the empirical measure: Ln (?) = c1 TPn (?) + c2 d1 TPn (?) + d2 n (?) + c0 , (?) + d0 n (6) corresponding to the population measure L(?; P) in (4). It is expected that Ln (?) will be close to the L(?; P) when the sample is sufficiently large (see Proposition 8). For the rest of this manuscript, ? we assume that L? ? dc11 so ?? (x) = sign(?x ). The case where L? > dc11 is solved identically. Our first approach (Two-Step Expected Utility Maximization) is quite intuitive (Algorithm 1): Obtain an estimator ??x for ?x = P(Y = 1|x) by performing ERM on the sample using a proper loss function [11]. Then, maximize Ln defined in (6) with respect to the threshold 2 (0, 1). The optimization required in the third step is one dimensional, thus a global minimizer can be computed efficiently in many cases [18]. In experiments, we use (regularized) logistic regression on a training sample to obtain ??. Algorithm 1: Two-Step EUM Input: Training examples S = {Xi , Yi }ni=1 and the utility measure L. 1. Split the training data S into two sets S1 and S2 . 2. Estimate ??x using S1 , define ?? = sign(? ?x ) 3. Compute ? = arg max 2(0,1) Ln (?? ) on S2 . Return: ??? Our second approach (Weighted Empirical Risk Minimization) is based on the observation that empirical risk minimization (ERM) with suitably weighted loss functions yields a classifier that thresholds ?x appropriately (Algorithm 2). Given a convex surrogate `(t, y) of the 0-1 loss, where t is a real-valued prediction and y 2 {0, 1}, the -weighted loss is given by [9]: ` (t, y) = (1 )1{y=1} `(t, 1) + 1{y=0} `(t, 0). Denote the set of real valued functions as ; we then define ?? as: n X ? = arg min 1 ` ( (Xi ), Yi ) 2 n i=1 (7) then set ?? (x) = sign( ? (x)). Scott [9] showed that such an estimated ?? is consistent with ? = sign(?x ). With the classifier defined, maximize Ln defined in (6) with respect to the threshold 2 (0, 1). Algorithm 2: Weighted ERM Input: Training examples S = {Xi , Yi }ni=1 , and the utility measure L. 1. Split the training data S into two sets S1 and S2 . 2. Compute ? = arg max 2(0,1) Ln (?? ) on S2 . Sub-algorithm: Define ?? (x) = sign( ? (x)) where ? (x) is computed using (7) on S1 . Return: ??? Remark 5. When d1 = d2 = 0, the optimal threshold does not depend on L? (Corollary 4). We may then employ simple sample-based plugin estimates ?S . A benefit of using such plugin estimates is that the classification algorithms can be simplified while maintaining consistency. Given such a sample-based plugin estimate ?S , Algorithm 1 then reduces to estimating ??x , and then setting ???S = sign(? ?x ?S ), Algorithm 2 reduces to a single ERM (7) to ? ? estimate ?S (x), and then setting ? ?S (x) = sign( ??S (x)). In the case of AM measure, the threshold is given by ? = ?. A consistent estimator for ? is all that is required (see [7]). 5 3.1 Consistency of the proposed algorithms An algorithm is said to be L-consistent if the learned classifier ?? satisfies L? ? < ?) ! 1, as n ! 1. every ? > 0, P(|L? L(?)| p ? ! 0 i.e., for L(?) We begin the analysis from the simplest case when ? is independent of L? (Corollary 4). The following proposition, which generalizes Lemma 1 of [7], shows that maximizing L is equivalent to minimizing ? -weighted risk. As a consequence, it suffices to minimize a suitable surrogate loss ` ? on the training data to guarantee L-consistency. Proposition 6. Assume ? 2 (0, 1) and ? is independent of L? , but may depend on the distribution P. Define ? -weighted risk of a classifier ? as ? ? ? R ? (?) = E(x,y)?P (1 )1{y=1} 1{?(x)=0} + ? 1{y=0} 1{?(x)=1} , 1 then, R ? (?) min R ? (?) = (L? L(?)). ? c1 The proof is simple, and we defer it to Appendix B. Note that the key consequence of Proposition 6 is that if we know ? , then simply optimizing a weighted surrogate loss as detailed in the proposition suffices to obtain a consistent classifier. In the more practical setting where ? is not known exactly, we can then compute a sample based estimate ?S . We briefly mentioned in the previous section how the proposed Algorithms 1 and 2 simplify in this case. Using the plug-in estimate ?S such p that ?S ! ? in the algorithms directly guarantees consistency, under mild assumptions on P (see Appendix A for details). The proof for this setting essentially follows the arguments in [7], given Proposition 6. Now, we turn to the general case, i.e. when L is an arbitrary measure in the class (4) such that ? is difficult to estimate directly. In this case, both the proposed algorithms estimate to optimize the empirical measure Ln . We employ the following proposition which establishes bounds on L. Proposition 7. Let the constants aij , bij for i, j 2 {0, 1}, a0 , and b0 be non-negative and, without loss of generality, take values from [0, 1]. Then, we have: 1. 2 ? c1 , d1 ? 2, 1 ? c2 , d2 ? 1, and 0 ? c0 , d0 ? 2(1 + ?). 2. L is bounded, i.e. for any ?, 0 ? L(?) ? L := a0 +maxi,j2{0,1} aij b0 +minij2{0,1} bij . The proofs of the main results in Theorem 10 and 11 rely on the following Lemmas 8 and 9 on how the empirical measure converges to the population measure at a steady rate. We defer the proofs to Appendix B. Lemma 8. For any ? > 0, limn ! 1 P(|Ln (?) L(?)| < ?) = 1. q Furthermore, with probability at least 1 L(?), B ?, |Ln (?) 0, C L(?)| < 0, D (C+LD)r(n,?) B Dr(n,?) , where r(n, ?) = 1 2n ln ?4 , L is an upper bound on 0 are constants that depend on L (i.e. c0 , c1 , c2 , d0 , d1 and d2 ). Now, we show a uniform convergence result for Ln with respect to maximization over the threshold 2 (0, 1). Lemma 9. Consider the function class of all thresholded decisions ? = {1{ (x)> } 8 2 (0, 1)} q ? ? 16 B for a [0, 1]-valued function : X ! [0, 1]. Define r?(n, ?) = 32 ?(n, ?) < D n ln(en) + ln ? . If r (where B and D are defined as in Lemma 8) and ? = sup |Ln (?) (C+LD)? r (n,?) B D? r (n,?) , then with prob. at least 1 ?, L(?)| < ?. ?2? We are now ready to state our main results concerning the consistency of the two proposed algorithms. p Theorem 10. (Main Result 2) If the estimate ??x satisfies ??x ! ?x , Algorithm 1 is L-consistent. p Note that we can obtain an estimate ??x with the guarantee that ??x ! ?x by using a strongly proper loss function [19] (e.g. logistic loss) (see Appendix B). 6 Theorem 11. (Main Result 3) Let ` : R : [0, 1) be a classification-calibrated convex (margin) loss (i.e. `0 (0) < 0) and let ` be the corresponding weighted loss for a given used in the weighted ERM (7). Then, Algorithm 2 is L-consistent. Note that loss functions used in practice such as hinge and logistic are classification-calibrated [8]. 4 Experiments We present experiments on synthetic data where we observe that measures from our family indeed are maximized by thresholding ?x . We also compare the two proposed algorithms on benchmark datasets on two specific measures from the family. 4.1 Synthetic data: Optimal decisions We evaluate the Bayes optimal classifiers for common performance metrics to empirically verify the results of Theorem 2. We fix a domain X = {1, 2, . . . 10}, then we set ?(x) by drawing random values uniformly in (0, 1), and then normalizing these. We set the conditional probability using a sigmoid function as ?x = 1+exp(1 wx) , where w is a random value drawn from a standard Gaussian. As the optimal threshold depends on the Bayes risk L? , the Bayes classifier cannot be evaluated using plug-in estimates. Instead, the Bayes classifier ?? was obtained using an exhaustive search over all 210 possible classifiers. The results are presented in Fig. 1. For different metrics, we plot ?x , the predicted optimal threshold ? (which depends on P) and the Bayes classifier ?? . The results can be seen to be consistent with Theorem 2 i.e. the (exhaustively computed) Bayes optimal classifier matches the thresholded classifier detailed in the theorem. (a) Precision (b) F1 (c) Weighted Accuracy Figure 1: Simulated results showing ?x , optimal threshold 4.2 ? (d) Jaccard and Bayes classifier ?? . Benchmark data: Performance of the proposed algorithms We evaluate the two algorithms on several benchmark datasets for classification. We consider two P +T N ) measures, F1 defined as in Section 2 and Weighted Accuracy defined as 2(T P 2(T +T N )+F P +F N . We split the training data S into two sets S1 and S2 : S1 is used for estimating ??x and S2 for selecting . For Algorithm 1, we use logistic loss on the samples (with L2 regularization) to obtain estimate ??x . Once we have the estimate, we use the model to obtain ??x for x 2 S2 , and then use the values ??x as candidate choices to select the optimal threshold (note that the empirical best lies in the choices). Similarly, for Algorithm 2, we use a weighted logistic regression, where the weights depend on the threshold as detailed in our algorithm description. Here, we grid the space [0, 1] to find the best threshold on S2 . Notice that this step is embarrassingly parallelizable. The granularity of the grid depends primarily on class imbalance in the data, and varies with datasets. We also compare the two algorithms with the standard empirical risk minimization (ERM) - regularized logistic regression with threshold 1/2. First, we optimize for the F1 measure on four benchmark datasets: (1) R EUTERS, consisting of news 8293 articles categorized into 65 topics (obtained the processed dataset from [20]). For each topic, we obtain a highly imbalanced binary classification dataset with the topic as the positive class and the rest as negative. We report the average F1 measure over all the topics (also known as macro-F1 score). Following the analysis in [6], we present results for averaging over topics that had at least C positives in the training (5946 articles) as well as the test (2347 articles) data. (2) L ETTERS dataset consisting of 20000 handwritten letters (16000 training and 4000 test instances) 7 from the English alphabet (26 classes, with each class consisting of at least 100 positive training instances). (3) S CENE dataset (UCI benchmark) consisting of 2230 images (1137 training and 1093 test instances) categorized into 6 scene types (with each class consisting of at least 100 positive instances). (4) W EBPAGE binary text categorization dataset obtained from [21], consisting of 34780 web pages (6956 train and 27824 test), with only about 182 positive instances in the train. All the datasets, except S CENE, have a high class imbalance. We use our algorithms to optimize for the F1 measure on these datasets. The results are presented in Table 1. We see that both algorithms perform similarly in many cases. A noticeable exception is the S CENE dataset, where Algorithm 1 is better by a large margin. In R EUTERS dataset, we observe that as the number of positive instances C in the training data increases, the methods perform significantly better, and our results align with those in [6] on this dataset. We also find, albeit surprisingly, that using a threshold 1/2 performs competitively on this dataset. DATASET C ERM Algorithm 1 Algorithm 2 1 0.5151 0.4980 0.4855 R EUTERS 10 0.7624 0.7600 0.7449 (65 classes) 50 0.8428 0.8510 0.8560 100 0.9675 0.9670 0.9670 L ETTERS (26 classes) 1 0.4827 0.5742 0.5686 S CENE (6 classes) 1 0.3953 0.6891 0.5916 W EB PAGE (binary) 1 0.6254 0.6269 0.6267 Table 1: Comparison of methods: F1 measure. First three are multi-class datasets: F1 is computed individually for each class that has at least C positive instances (in both the train and the test sets) and then averaged over classes (macro-F1). Next we optimize for the Weighted Accuracy measure on datasets with less class imbalance. In this case, we can see that ? = 1/2 from Theorem 2. We use four benchmark datasets: S CENE (same as earlier), I MAGE (2068 images: 1300 train, 1010 test) [22], B REAST C ANCER (683 instances: 463 train, 220 test) and S PAMBASE (4601 instances: 3071 train, 1530 test) [23]. Note that the last three are binary datasets. The results are presented in Table 2. Here, we observe that all the methods perform similarly, which conforms to our theoretical guarantees of consistency. DATASET ERM Algorithm 1 Algorithm 2 S CENE 0.9000 0.9000 0.9105 I MAGE 0.9060 0.9063 0.9025 B REAST CANCER 0.9860 0.9910 0.9910 S PAMBASE 0.9463 0.9550 0.9430 P +T N ) Table 2: Comparison of methods: Weighted Accuracy defined as 2(T P 2(T +T N )+F P +F N . Here, 1/2. We observe that the two algorithms are consistent (ERM thresholds at 1/2). 5 ? = Conclusions and Future Work Despite the importance of binary classification, theoretical results identifying optimal classifiers and consistent algorithms for many performance metrics used in practice remain as open questions. Our goal in this paper is to begin to answer these questions. We have considered a large family of generalized performance measures that includes many measures used in practice. Our analysis shows that the optimal classifiers for such measures can be characterized as the sign of the thresholded conditional probability of the positive class, with a threshold that depends on the specific metric. This result unifies and generalizes known special cases. We have proposed two algorithms for consistent estimation of the optimal classifiers. While the results presented are an important first step, many open questions remain. It would be interesting to characterize the convergence rates of p p ? ! L(?) L(?? ) as ?? ! ?? , using surrogate losses similar in spirit to how excess 0-1 risk is controlled through excess surrogate risk in [8]. Another important direction is to characterize the entire family of measures for which the optimal is given by thresholded P (Y = 1|x). We would like to extend our analysis to the multi-class and multi-label domains as well. Acknowledgments: This research was supported by NSF grant CCF-1117055 and NSF grant CCF-1320746. P.R. acknowledges the support of ARO via W911NF-12-1-0390 and NSF via IIS-1149803, IIS-1320894. 8 References [1] David D Lewis and William A Gale. A sequential algorithm for training text classifiers. In Proceedings of the 17th annual international ACM SIGIR conference, pages 3?12. Springer-Verlag New York, Inc., 1994. [2] Chris Drummond and Robert C Holte. Severe class imbalance: Why better algorithms aren?t the answer? In Machine Learning: ECML 2005, pages 539?546. Springer, 2005. [3] Qiong Gu, Li Zhu, and Zhihua Cai. Evaluation measures of the classification performance of imbalanced data sets. In Computational Intelligence and Intelligent Systems, pages 461?471. Springer, 2009. [4] Haibo He and Edwardo A Garcia. Learning from imbalanced data. Knowledge and Data Engineering, IEEE Transactions on, 21(9):1263?1284, 2009. [5] Charles Elkan. The foundations of cost-sensitive learning. In International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, volume 17, pages 973?978. Citeseer, 2001. [6] Nan Ye, Kian Ming A Chai, Wee Sun Lee, and Hai Leong Chieu. Optimizing F-measures: a tale of two approaches. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, 2012. [7] Aditya Menon, Harikrishna Narasimhan, Shivani Agarwal, and Sanjay Chawla. On the statistical consistency of algorithms for binary classification under class imbalance. In Proceedings of The 30th International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 603?611, 2013. [8] Peter L Bartlett, Michael I Jordan, and Jon D McAuliffe. Convexity, classification, and risk bounds. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 101(473):138?156, 2006. [9] Clayton Scott. Calibrated asymmetric surrogate losses. Electronic J. of Stat., 6:958?992, 2012. [10] Ingo Steinwart. How to compare different loss functions and their risks. Constructive Approximation, 26 (2):225?287, 2007. [11] Mark D Reid and Robert C Williamson. Composite binary losses. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 9999:2387?2422, 2010. [12] Tong Zhang. Statistical analysis of some multi-category large margin classification methods. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 5:1225?1251, 2004. [13] Ambuj Tewari and Peter L Bartlett. On the consistency of multiclass classification methods. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 8:1007?1025, 2007. [14] Ming-Jie Zhao, Narayanan Edakunni, Adam Pocock, and Gavin Brown. Beyond Fano?s inequality: bounds on the optimal F-score, BER, and cost-sensitive risk and their implications. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 14(1):1033?1090, 2013. [15] Zachary Chase Lipton, Charles Elkan, and Balakrishnan Narayanaswamy. Thresholding classiers to maximize F1 score. arXiv, abs/1402.1892, 2014. [16] Marina Sokolova and Guy Lapalme. A systematic analysis of performance measures for classification tasks. Information Processing & Management, 45(4):427?437, 2009. [17] Seung-Seok Choi and Sung-Hyuk Cha. A survey of binary similarity and distance measures. Journal of Systemics, Cybernetics and Informatics, pages 43?48, 2010. [18] Yaroslav D Sergeyev. Global one-dimensional optimization using smooth auxiliary functions. Mathematical Programming, 81(1):127?146, 1998. [19] Mark D Reid and Robert C Williamson. Surrogate regret bounds for proper losses. In Proceedings of the 26th Annual International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 897?904. ACM, 2009. [20] Deng Cai, Xuanhui Wang, and Xiaofei He. Probabilistic dyadic data analysis with local and global consistency. In Proceedings of the 26th Annual International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 105?112. ACM, 2009. [21] John C Platt. Fast training of support vector machines using sequential minimal optimization. 1999. [22] S. Mika, G. R?atsch, J. Weston, B. Sch?olkopf, and K.-R. M?uller. Fisher discriminant analysis with kernels. In Y.-H. Hu, J. Larsen, E. Wilson, and S. Douglas, editors, Neural Networks for Signal Processing IX, pages 41?48. IEEE, 1999. [23] Steve Webb, James Caverlee, and Calton Pu. Introducing the webb spam corpus: Using email spam to identify web spam automatically. In CEAS, 2006. [24] Stephen Poythress Boyd and Lieven Vandenberghe. Convex optimization. Cambridge university press, 2004. [25] Luc Devroye. A probabilistic theory of pattern recognition, volume 31. springer, 1996. [26] Aditya Menon, Harikrishna Narasimhan, Shivani Agarwal, and Sanjay Chawla. On the statistical consistency of algorithms for binary classification under class imbalance: Supplementary material. In Proceedings of The 30th International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 603?611, 2013. 9
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Extended and Unscented Gaussian Processes Daniel M. Steinberg NICTA daniel.steinberg@nicta.com.au Edwin V. Bonilla The University of New South Wales e.bonilla@unsw.edu.au Abstract We present two new methods for inference in Gaussian process (GP) models with general nonlinear likelihoods. Inference is based on a variational framework where a Gaussian posterior is assumed and the likelihood is linearized about the variational posterior mean using either a Taylor series expansion or statistical linearization. We show that the parameter updates obtained by these algorithms are equivalent to the state update equations in the iterative extended and unscented Kalman filters respectively, hence we refer to our algorithms as extended and unscented GPs. The unscented GP treats the likelihood as a ?black-box? by not requiring its derivative for inference, so it also applies to non-differentiable likelihood models. We evaluate the performance of our algorithms on a number of synthetic inversion problems and a binary classification dataset. 1 Introduction Nonlinear inversion problems, where we wish to infer the latent inputs to a system given observations of its output and the system?s forward-model, have a long history in the natural sciences, dynamical modeling and estimation. An example is the robot-arm inverse kinematics problem. We wish to infer how to drive the robot?s joints (i.e. joint torques) in order to place the end-effector in a particular position, given we can measure its position and know the forward kinematics of the arm. Most of the existing algorithms either estimate the system inputs at a particular point in time like the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm [1], or in a recursive manner such as the extended and unscented Kalman filters (EKF, UKF) [2]. In many inversion problems we have a continuous process; a smooth trajectory of a robot arm for example. Non-parametric regression techniques like Gaussian processes [3] seem applicable, and have been used in linear inversion problems [4]. Similarly, Gaussian processes have been used to learn inverse kinematics and predict the motion of a dynamical system such as robot arms [3, 5] and a human?s gait [6, 7, 8]. However, in [3, 5] the inputs (torques) to the system are observable (not latent) and are used to train the GPs. Whereas [7, 8] are not concerned with inference over the original latent inputs, but rather they want to find a low dimensional representation of high dimensional outputs for prediction using Gaussian process latent variable models [6]. In this paper we introduce inference algorithms for GPs that can infer and predict the original latent inputs to a system, without having to be explicitly trained on them. If we do not need to infer the latent inputs to a system it is desirable to still incorporate domain/system specific information into an algorithm in terms of a likelihood model specific to the task at hand. For example, non-parametric classification or robust regression problems. In these situations it is useful to have an inference procedure that does not require re-derivation for each new likelihood model without having to resort to MCMC. An example of this is the variational algorithm presented in [9] for factorizing likelihood models. In this model, the expectations arising from the use of arbitrary (non-conjugate) likelihoods are only one-dimensional, and so they can be easily evaluated using sampling techniques or quadrature. We present two alternatives to this algorithm that are also underpinned by variational principles but are based on linearizing the 1 nonlinear likelihood models about the posterior mean. These methods are straight-forwardly applicable to non-factorizing likelihoods and would retain computational efficiency, unlike [9] which would require evaluation of multidimensional intractable integrals. One of our algorithms, based on statistical linearization, does not even require derivatives of the likelihood model (like [9]) and so non-differentiable likelihoods can be incorporated. Initially we formulate our models in ?2 for the finite Gaussian case because the linearization methods are more general and comparable with existing algorithms. In fact we show we can derive the update steps of the iterative EKF [10] and similar updates to the iterative UKF [11] using our variational inference procedures. Then in ? 3 we specifically derive a factorizing likelihood Gaussian process model using our framework, which we use for experiments in ?4. 2 Variational Inference in Nonlinear Gaussian Models with Linearization Given some observable quantity y ? Rd , and a likelihood model for the system of interest, in many situations it is desirable to reason about the latent input to the system, f ? RD , that generated the observations. Finding these inputs is an inversion problem and in a probabilistic setting it can be cast as an application of Bayes? rule. The following forms are assumed for the prior and likelihood: p(f ) = N (f |?, K) p(y|f ) = N (y|g(f ) , ?) , and (1) where g(?) : RD ? Rd is a nonlinear function or forward model. Unfortunately the marginal likelihood, p(y), is intractable as the nonlinear function makes the likelihood and prior non-conjugate. This also makes the posterior p(f |y), which is the solution to the inverse problem, intractable to evaluate. So, we choose to approximate the posterior with variational inference [12]. 2.1 Variational Approximation Using variational inference procedures we can put a lower bound on the log-marginal likelihood using Jensen?s inequality, Z p(y|f ) p(f ) log p(y) ? q(f ) log df , (2) q(f ) with equality iff KL[q(f ) k p(f |y)] = 0, and where q(f ) is an approximation to the true posterior, p(f |y). This lower bound is often referred to as ?free energy?, and can be re-written as follows F = hlog p(y|f )iqf ? KL[q(f ) k p(f )] , (3) where h?iqf is an expectation with respect to the variational posterior, q(f ). We assume the posterior takes a Gaussian form, q(f ) = N (f |m, C), so we can evaluate the expectation and KL term in (3),  D E  1 > hlog p(y|f )iqf = ? D log 2? + log |?| + (y ? g(f )) ?-1 (y ? g(f )) , (4) 2 qf    1 > tr K-1 C + (? ? m) K-1 (? ? m) ? log |C| + log |K| ? D . (5) KL[q(f ) k p(f )] = 2 where the expectation involving g(?) may be intractable. One method of dealing with these expectations is presented in [9] by assuming that the likelihood factorizes across observations. Here we provide two alternatives based on linearizing g(?) about the posterior mean, m. 2.2 Parameter Updates To find the optimal posterior mean, m, we need to find the derivative, E ?F 1 ? D > > =? (? ? f ) K-1 (? ? f ) + (y ? g(f )) ?-1 (y ? g(f )) , (6) ?m 2 ?m qf where all terms in F independent of m have been dropped, and we have placed the quadratic and trace terms from the KL component in Equation (5) back into the expectation. We can represent this as an augmented Gaussian, E ?F 1 ? D > =? (z ? h(f )) S-1 (z ? h(f )) , (7) ?m 2 ?m qf 2 where z=   y , ? h(f ) =   g(f ) , f S=  ? 0  0 . K (8) Now we can see solving for m is essentially a nonlinear least squares problem, but about the expected posterior value of f . Even without the expectation, there is no closed form solution to ?F/?m = 0. However, we can use an iterative Newton method to find m. It begins with an initial guess, m0 , then proceeds with the iterations, -1 mk+1 = mk ? ? (?m ?m F) ?m F, (9) for some step length, ? ? (0, 1]. Though evaluating ?m F is still intractable because of the nonlinear term within the expectation in Equation (7). If we linearize g(f ), we can evaluate the expectation, g(f ) ? Af + b, for some linearization matrix A ? R > -1 d?D (10) d and an intercept term b ? R . Using this we get, -1 ?m F ? A ? (y ? Am ? b) + K (? ? m) and ?m ?m F ? ?K-1 ? A> ?-1 A. (11) Substituting (11) into (9) and using the Woodbury identity we can derive the iterations, mk+1 = (1 ? ?) mk + ?? + ?Hk (y ? bk ? Ak ?) , (12) where Hk is usually referred to as a ?Kalman gain? term, Hk = KA>k ? + Ak KA>k -1 , (13) and we have assumed that the linearization Ak and intercept, bk are in some way dependent on the iteration. We can find the posterior covariance by setting ?F/?C = 0 where, E 1 ? D 1 ? ?F > =? (z ? h(f )) S-1 (z ? h(f )) + log |C| . (14) ?C 2 ?C 2 ?C qf Again we do not have an analytic solution, so we once more apply the approximation (10) to get,  -1 C = K-1 + A> ?-1 A = (ID ? HA)K, (15) where we have once more made use of the Woodbury identity and also the converged values of A and H. At this point it is also worth noting the relationship between Equations (15) and (11). 2.3 Taylor Series Linearization Now we need to find expressions for the linearization terms A and b. One method is to use a first order Taylor Series expansion to linearize g(?) about the last calculation of the posterior mean, mk , g(f ) ? g(mk ) + Jmk (f ? mk ) , (16) where Jmk is the Jacobian ?g(mk )/?mk . By linearizing the function in this way we end up with a Gauss-Newton optimization procedure for finding m. Equating coefficients with (10), A = Jmk , b = g(mk ) ? Jmk mk , (17) and then substituting these values into Equations (12) ? (15) we get, mk+1 = (1 ? ?) mk + ?? + ?Hk (y ? g(mk ) + Jmk (mk ? ?)) , -1 Hk = KJ>mk ? + Jmk KJ>mk , C = (ID ? HJm )K. (18) (19) (20) Here Jm and H without the k subscript are constructed about the converged posterior, m. Remark 1 A single step of the iterated extended Kalman filter [10, 11] corresponds to an update in our variational framework when using the Taylor series linearization of the non-linear forward model g(?) around the posterior mean. Having derived the updates in our variational framework, the proof of this is trivial by making ? = 1, and using Equations (18) ? (20) as the iterative updates. 3 2.4 Statistical Linearization Another method for linearizing g(?) is statistical linearization (see e.g. [13]), which finds a least squares best fit to g(?) about a point. The advantage of this method is that it does not require derivatives ?g(f )/?f . To obtain the fit, multiple observations of the forward model output for different input points are required. Hence, the key question is where to evaluate our forward model so as to obtain representative samples to carry out the linearization. One method of obtaining these points is the unscented transform [2], which defines 2D + 1 ?sigma? points, M0 = m, (21) p  Mi = m + (D + ?) C for i = 1 . . . D, (22) i p (D + ?) C for i = D + 1 . . . 2D, (23) Mi = m ? i Yi = g(Mi ) , (24) ? for a free parameter ?. Here ( ?)i refers to columns of the matrix square root, we follow [2] and use the Cholesky decomposition. Unlike the usual unscented transform, which uses the prior to create the sigma points, here we have used the posterior because of the expectation in Equation (7). Using these points we can define the following statistics, ?= y 2D X wi Yi , ?ym = 2D X > ? ) (Mi ? m) , wi (Yi ? y (25) i=0 i=0 ? 1 , wi = for i = 1 . . . 2D. (26) D+? 2 (D + ?) According to [2] various settings of ? can capture information about the higher order moments of the distribution of y; or setting ? = 0.5 yields uniform weights. To find the linearization coefficients statistical linearization solves the following objective, w0 = argmin A,b 2D X 2 kYi ? (AMi + b)k2 . (27) i=0 This is simply linear least-squares and has the solution [13]: ? ? Am. A = ?ym C-1 , b=y Substituting b back into Equation (12), we obtain, ? k + Ak (mk ? ?)) . mk+1 = (1 ? ?) mk + ?? + ?Hk (y ? y (28) (29) ? k have been evaluated using the statistics from the kth iteration. This implies Here Hk , Ak and y that the posterior covariance, Ck , is now estimated at every iteration of (29) since we use it to form Ak and bk . Hk and Ck have the same form as Equations (13) and (15) respectively. Remark 2 A single step of the iterated unscented sigma-point Kalman filter (iSPKF, [11]) can be seen as an ad hoc approximation to an update in our statistically linearized variational framework. Equations (29) and (15) are equivalent to the equations for a single update of the iterated sigma-point ? k appearing in Equation (29) as opposed to Kalman filter (iSPKF) for ? = 1, except for the term y g(mk ). The main difference is that we have derived our updates from variational principles. These updates are also more similar to the regular recursive unscented Kalman filter [2], and statistically linearized recursive least squares [13]. 2.5 Optimizing the Posterior Because of the expectations involving an arbitrary function in Equation (4), no analytical solution exists for the lower bound on the marginal likelihood, F. We can use our approximation (10) again,  1 > F ? ? D log 2? + log |?| ? log |C| + log |K| + (? ? m) K-1 (? ? m) 2  > -1 + (y ? Am ? b) ? (y ? Am ? b) . (30) 4 Here the trace term from Equation  (5) has cancelled with a trace term from the expected likelihood, tr A> ?-1 AC = D ? tr K-1 C , once we have linearized g(?) and substituted (15). Unfortunately this approximation is no longer a lower bound on the log marginal likelihood in general. In practice we only calculate this approximation F if we need to optimize some model hyperparameters, like for a Gaussian process as described in ? 3. When optimizing m, the only terms of F dependent on m in the Taylor series linearization case are, 1 1 > > ? (y ? g(m)) ?-1 (y ? g(m)) ? (? ? m) K-1 (? ? m) . (31) 2 2 This is also the maximum a-posteriori objective. A global convergence proof exists for this objective when optimized by a Gauss-Newton procedure, like our Taylor series linearization algorithm, under some conditions on the Jacobians, see [14, p255]. No such guarantees exist for statistical linearization, though monitoring (31) works well in practice (see the experiment in ?4.1). A line search could be used to select an optimal value for the step length, ? in Equation (12). However, we find that setting ? = 1, and then successively multiplying ? by some number in (0, 1) until the MAP objective (31) decreases, or some maximum number of iterations is exceeded is fast and works well in practice. If the maximum number of iterations is exceeded we call this a ?diverge? condition, and terminate the search for m (and return the last good value). This only tends to happen for statistical linearization, but does not tend to impact the algorithms performance since we always make sure to improve (approximate) F. 3 Variational Inference in Gaussian Process Models with Linearization We now present two inference methods for Gaussian Process (GP) models [3] with arbitrary nonlinear likelihoods using the framework presented previously. Both Gaussian process models have the following likelihood and prior,  y ? N g(f ) , ? 2 IN , f ? N (0, K) . (32) Here y ? RN are the N noisy observed values of the transformed latent function, g(f ), and f ? RN is the latent function we are interested in inferring. K ? RN ?N is the kernel matrix, where each element kij = k(xi , xj ) is the result of applying a kernel function to each input, x ? RP , in a pairwise manner. It is also important to note that the likelihood noise model is isotropic with a variance of ? 2 . This is not a necessary condition, and we can use a correlated noise likelihood model, however the factorized likelihood case is still useful and provides some computational benefits. As before, we make the approximation that the posterior is Gaussian, q(f |m, C) = N (f |m, C) where m ? RN is the mean posterior latent function, and C ? RN ?N is the posterior covariance. Since the likelihood is isotropic and factorizes over the N observations we have the following expectation under our variational inference framework: N E N 1 XD 2 2 hlog p(y|f )iqf = ? log 2?? ? 2 (yn ? g(fn )) . 2 2? n=1 qfn As a consequence, the linearization is one-dimensional, that is g(fn ) ? an fn + bn . Using this we can derive the approximate gradients, 1 A (y ? Am ? b) ? K-1 m, ?m ?m F ? ?K-1 ? A?-1 A, (33) ?2  2  where A = diag([a1 , . . . , aN ]) and ? = diag ? , . . . , ? 2 . Because of the factorizing likelihood we obtain C-1 = K-1 + A?-1 A, that is, the inverse posterior covariance is just the prior inverse covariance, but with a modified diagonal. This means if we were to use this inverse parameterization of the Gaussian, which is also used in [9], we would only have to infer 2N parameters (instead of N + N (N + 1)/2). We can obtain the iterative steps for m straightforwardly: ?m F ? mk+1 = (1 ? ?) mk + ?Hk (y ? bk ) , -1 where Hk = KAk (? + Ak KAk ) , (34) and also an expression for posterior covariance, C = (IN ? HA)K. 5 (35) The values for an and bn for the linearization methods are, ?g(mn ) , ?mn ?my,n = , Cnn bn = g(mn ) ? Taylor : an = Statistical : an ?g(mn ) mn , ?mn bn = y?n ? an mn . (36) (37) Cnn is the nth diagonal element of C, and ?my,n and y?n are scalar versions p of Equations (21) ?  (26). The sigma points for each observation, n, are Mn = mn , mn + (1 + ?) Cnn , mn ? p (1 + ?) Cnn . We refer to the Taylor series linearized GP as the extended GP (EGP), and the statistically linearized GP as the unscented GP (UGP). 3.1 Prediction The distribution of a latent value, f ? , given a query point, x? , requires the marginalization R predictive ? p(f |f ) q(f |m, C) df , where p(f ? |f ) is a regular predictive GP. This gives f ? ? N (m? , C ? ), and,   m? = k?>K-1 m, C ? = k ?? ? k?>K-1 IN ? CK-1 k? , (38) > where k ?? = k(x? , x? ) and k? = [k(x1 , x? ) , . . . , k(xN , x? )] . We can also find the predicted observations, y?? by evaluating the one-dimensional integral, Z (39) y?? = hy ? iqf ? = g(f ? ) N (f ? |m? , C ? ) df ? , for which we use quadrature. Alternatively, if we were to use the UGP we can use another application of the unscented transform to approximate the predictive distribution y ? ? N y?? , ?y2? where, y?? = 2 X wi M?i , ?y2? = i=0 2 X 2 wi (Yi? ? y?? ) . (40) i=0 This works well in practice, see Figure 1 for a demonstration. 3.2 Learning the Linearized GPs Learning the extended and unscented GPs consists of an inner and outer loop. Much like the Laplace approximation for binary Gaussian Process classifiers [3], the inner loop is for learning the posterior mean, m, and the outer loop is to optimize the likelihood parameters (e.g. the variance ? 2 ) and kernel hyperparameters, k(?, ?|?). The dominant computational cost in learning the parameters is the inversion in Equation (34), and so the computational complexity of the EGP and UGP is about the same as for the Laplace GP approximation. To learn the kernel hyperparameters and ? 2 we use numerical techniques to find the gradients, ?F/??, for both the algorithms, where F is approximated,   1 1 > N log 2?? 2 ? log |C| + log |K| + m> K-1 m + 2 (y ? Am ? b) (y ? Am ? b) . 2 ? (41) Specifically we use derivative-free optimization methods (e.g. BOBYQA) from the NLopt library [15], which we find fast and effective. This also has the advantage of not requiring knowledge of ?g(f )/?f or higher order derivatives for any implicit gradient dependencies between f and ?. F ?? 4 4.1 Experiments Toy Inversion Problems In this experiment we generate ?latent? function data from f ? N (0, K) where a Mat?rn 25 kernel function is used with amplitude ?m52 = 0.8, length scale lm52 = 0.6 and x ? R are uniformly spaced between [?2?, 2?] to build K. Observations used to test and train the GPs are then generated  as y = g(f ) +  where  ? N 0, 0.22 . 1000 points are generated in this way, and we use 5-fold cross validation to train (200 points) and test (800 points) the GPs. We use standardized mean 6 Table 1: The negative log predictive density (NLPD) and the standardized mean squared error (SMSE) on test data for various differentiable forward models. Lower values are better for both measures. The predicted f ? and y ? are the same for g(f ) = f , so we do not report y ? in this case. g(f ) Algorithm NLPD f ? mean std. SMSE f ? mean std. SMSE y ? mean std. f UGP EGP [9] GP -0.90046 -0.89908 -0.27590 -0.90278 0.06743 0.06608 0.06884 0.06988 0.01219 0.01224 0.01249 0.01211 0.00171 0.00178 0.00159 0.00160 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? f3 + f2 + f UGP EGP [9] -0.23622 -0.22325 -0.14559 1.72609 1.76231 0.04026 0.01534 0.01518 0.06733 0.00202 0.00203 0.01421 0.02184 0.02184 0.02686 0.00525 0.00528 0.00266 exp(f ) UGP EGP [9] -0.75475 -0.75706 -0.08176 0.32376 0.32051 0.10986 0.13860 0.13971 0.17614 0.04833 0.04842 0.04845 0.03865 0.03872 0.05956 0.00403 0.00411 0.01070 sin(f ) UGP EGP [9] -0.59710 -0.59705 -0.04363 0.22861 0.21611 0.03883 0.03305 0.03480 0.05913 0.00840 0.00791 0.01079 0.11513 0.11478 0.11890 0.00521 0.00532 0.00652 tanh(2f ) UGP EGP [9] 0.01101 0.57403 0.15743 0.60256 1.25248 0.14663 0.15703 0.18739 0.16049 0.06077 0.07869 0.04563 0.08767 0.08874 0.09434 0.00292 0.00394 0.00425 (a) g(f ) = 2 ? sign(f ) + f 3 (b) MAP trace from learning m Figure 1: Learning the UGP with a non-differentiable forward model in (a), and a corresponding trace from the MAP objective function used to learn m is shown in (b). The optimization shown terminated because of a ?divergence? condition, though the objective function value has still improved. squared error (SMSE) to test the predictions with the held out data in both the latent and observed spaces. We also use average negative log predictive density (NLPD) on the latent test data, which P is calculated as ? N1? n log N (fn? |m?n , Cn? ). All GP methods use Mat?rn 52 covariance functions with the hyperparameters and ? 2 initialized at 1.0 and lower-bounded at 0.1 (and 0.01 for ? 2 ). Table 1 shows results for multiple differentiable forward models, g(?). We test the EGP and UGP against the model in [9] ? which uses 10,000 samples to evaluate the one dimensional expectations. Although this number of samples may seem excessive for these simple problems, our goal here is to have a competitive baseline algorithm. We also test against normal GP regression for a linear forward model, g(f ) = f . In Figure 1 we show the results of the UGP using a forward model for which no derivative exists at the zero crossing points, as well as an objective function trace for learning the posterior mean. We use quadrature for the predictions in observation space in Table 1 and the unscented transform, Equation (40), for the predictions in Figure 1. Interestingly, there is almost no difference in performance between the EGP and UGP, even though the EGP has access to the derivatives of the forward models and the UGP does not. Both the UGP and EGP consistently outperformed [9] in terms of NLPD and SMSE, apart from the tanh experiment for inversion. In this experiment, the UGP had the best performance but the EGP was outperformed by [9]. 7 Table 2: Classification performance on the USPS handwritten-digits dataset for numbers ?3? and ?5?. Lower values of the negative  log probability (NLP) and error rate indicate better performance. The 2 learned signal variance ?se and length scale(lse ) are also shown for consistency with [3, ?3.7.3]. 4.2 Algorithm NLP y ? Error rate (%) log(?se ) log(lse ) GP ? Laplace GP ? EP GP ? VB SVM (RBF) Logistic Reg. 0.11528 0.07522 0.10891 0.08055 0.11995 2.9754 2.4580 3.3635 2.3286 3.6223 2.5855 5.2209 0.9045 ? ? 2.5823 2.5315 2.0664 ? ? UGP EGP 0.07290 0.08051 1.9405 2.1992 1.5743 2.9134 1.5262 1.7872 Binary Handwritten Digit Classification For this experiment we evaluate the EGP and UGP on a classification task. We are just interested in a probabilistic prediction of class labels, and not the values of the latent function. We use the USPS handwritten digits dataset with the task of distinguishing between ?3? and ?5? ? this is the same experiment from [3, ?3.7.3]. A logistic sigmoid is used as the forward model, g(?), in our algorithms. We test against Laplace, expectation propagation and variational Bayes logistic GP classifiers (from the GPML Matlab toolbox [3]), a support vector machine (SVM) with a radial basis kernel function (and probabilistic outputs [16]), and logistic regression (both from the scikitlearn python library [17]). A squared exponential kernel with amplitude ?se and length scale lse is used for the GPs in this experiment. We initialize these hyperparameters at 1.0, and put a lower bound of 0.1 on them. We initialize ? 2 and place a lower bound at 10?14 for the EGP and UGP (the optimized values are near or at this value). The hyperparameters for the SVM are learned using grid search with three-fold cross validation. The results are summarized in Table 2, where we report the average Bernoulli negative logprobability (NLP), the error rate and the learned hyperparameter values for the GPs. Surprisingly, the UGP outperforms the other classifiers on this dataset, despite the other classifiers being specifically formulated for this task. 5 Conclusion and Discussion We have presented a variational inference framework with linearization for Gaussian models with nonlinear likelihood functions, which we show can be used to derive updates for the extended and unscented Kalman filter algorithms, the iEKF and the iSPKF. We then generalize these results and develop two inference algorithms for Gaussian processes, the EGP and UGP. The UGP does not use derivatives of the nonlinear forward model, yet performs as well as the EGP for inversion and classification problems. Our method is similar to the Warped GP (WGP) [18], however, we wish to infer the full posterior over the latent function f . The goal of the WGP is to infer a transformation of a non-Gaussian process observation to a space where a GP can be constructed. That is, the WGP is concerned with inferring an inverse function g ?1 (?) so the transformed (latent) function is well modeled by a GP. As future work we would like to create multi-task EGPs and UGPs. This would extend their applicability to inversion problems where the forward models have multiple inputs and outputs, such as inverse kinematics for dynamical systems. Acknowledgments This research was supported by the Science Industry Endowment Fund (RP 04-174) Big Data Knowledge Discovery project. We thank F. Ramos, L. McCalman, S. O?Callaghan, A. Reid and T. Nguyen for their helpful feedback. NICTA is funded by the Australian Government through the Department of Communications and the Australian Research Council through the ICT Centre of Excellence Program. 8 References [1] D. W. Marquardt, ?An algorithm for least-squares estimation of nonlinear parameters,? Journal of the Society for Industrial & Applied Mathematics, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 431?441, 1963. [2] S. Julier and J. 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Hamming Ball Auxiliary Sampling for Factorial Hidden Markov Models Christopher Yau Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics University of Oxford cyau@well.ox.ac.uk Michalis K. Titsias Department of Informatics Athens University of Economics and Business mtitsias@aueb.gr Abstract We introduce a novel sampling algorithm for Markov chain Monte Carlo-based Bayesian inference for factorial hidden Markov models. This algorithm is based on an auxiliary variable construction that restricts the model space allowing iterative exploration in polynomial time. The sampling approach overcomes limitations with common conditional Gibbs samplers that use asymmetric updates and become easily trapped in local modes. Instead, our method uses symmetric moves that allows joint updating of the latent sequences and improves mixing. We illustrate the application of the approach with simulated and a real data example. 1 Introduction The hidden Markov model (HMM) [1] is one of the most widely and successfully applied statistical models for the description of discrete time series data. Much of its success lies in the availability of efficient computational algorithms that allows the calculation of key quantities necessary for statistical inference [1, 2]. Importantly, the complexity of these algorithms is linear in the length of the sequence and quadratic in the number of states which allows HMMs to be used in applications that involve long data sequences and reasonably large state spaces with modern computational hardware. In particular, the HMM has seen considerable use in areas such as bioinformatics and computational biology where non-trivially sized datasets are commonplace [3, 4, 5]. The factorial hidden Markov model (FHMM) [6] is an extension of the HMM where multiple independent hidden chains run in parallel and cooperatively generate the observed data. In a typical setting, we have an observed sequence Y = (y1 , . . . , yN ) of length N which is generated through K binary hidden sequences represented by a K ? N binary matrix X = (x1 , . . . , xN ). The interpretation of the latter binary matrix is that each row encodes for the presence or absence of a single feature across the observed sequence while each column xi represents the different features that are active when generating the observation yi . Different rows of X correspond to independent Markov chains following  1 ? ?k , xk,i = xk,i?1 , p(xk,i |xk,i?1 ) = (1) ?k , xk,i 6= xk,i?1 , and where the initial state xk,1 is drawn from a Bernoulli distribution with parameter ?k . All hidden K chains are parametrized by 2K parameters denoted by the vectors ? = {?k }K k=1 and v = {vk }k=1 . Furthermore, each data point yi is generated conditional on xi through a likelihood model p(yi |xi ) parametrized by ?. The whole set of model parameters consists of the vector ? = (?, ?, v) which determines the joint probability density over (Y, X), although for notational simplicity we omit reference to it in our expressions. The joint probability density over (Y, X) is written in the form ! K ! N N Y Y Y p(Y, X) = p(Y |X)p(X) = p(yi |xi ) p(xk,1 ) p(xk,i |xk,i?1 ) , (2) i=1 k=1 1 i=2 x1,i?1 x1,i x1,i+1 x2,i?1 x2,i x2,i+1 x3,i?1 x3,i x3,i+1 yi?1 yi yi+1 Figure 1: Graphical model for a factorial HMM with three hidden chains and three consecutive data points. and it is depicted as a directed graphical model in Figure 1. While the HMM has enjoyed widespread application, the utility of the FHMM has been relatively less abundant. One considerable challenge in the adoption of FHMMs concerns the computation of the posterior distribution p(X|Y ) (conditional on observed data and model parameters) which comprises a fully dependent distribution in the space of the 2KN possible configurations of the binary matrix X. Exact Monte Carlo inference can be achieved by applying the standard forward-filteringbackward-sampling (FF-BS) algorithm to simulate a sample from p(X|Y ) in O(22K N ) time (the independence of the Markov chains can be exploited to reduce this complexity to O(2K+1 KN ) [6]). Joint updating of X is highly desirable in time series analysis since alternative strategies involving conditional single-site, single-row or block updates can be notoriously slow due to strong coupling between successive time steps. However, although the use of FF-BS is quite feasible for even very large HMMs, it is only practical for small values of K and N in FHMMs. As a consequence, inference in FHMMs has become somewhat synonymous with approximate methods such as variational inference [6, 7]. The main burden of the FF-BS algorithm is the requirement to sum over all possible configurations of the binary matrix X during the forward filtering phase. The central idea in this work is to avoid this computationally expensive step by applying a restricted sampling procedure with polynomial time complexity that, when applied iteratively, gives exact samples from the true posterior distribution. Whilst regular conditional sampling procedures use locally asymmetric moves that only allow one part of X to be altered at a time, our sampling method employs locally symmetric moves that allow localized joint updating of all the constituent chains making it less prone to becoming trapped in local modes. The sampling strategy adopts the use of an auxiliary variable construction, similar to slice sampling [8] and the Swendsen-Wang algorithm [9], that allows the automatic selection of the sequence of restricted configuration spaces. The size of these restricted configuration spaces is user-defined allowing control over balance between the sampling efficiency and computational complexity. Our sampler generalizes the standard FF-BS algorithm which is a special case. 2 Standard Monte Carlo inference for the FHMM Before discussing the details of our new sampler, we first describe the limitations of standard conditional sampling procedures for the FHMM. The most sophisticated conditional sampling schemes are based on alternating between sampling one chain (or a small block of chains) at a time using the FF-BS recursion. However, as discussed in the following and illustrated experimentally in Section 4, these algorithms can easily become trapped in local modes leading to inefficient exploration of the posterior distribution. One standard Gibbs sampling algorithm for the FHMM is based on simulating from the posterior conditional distribution over a single row of X given the remaining rows. Each such step can be carried out in O(4N ) time using the FF-BS recursion, while a full sweep over all K rows requires O(4KN ) time. A straightforward generalization of the above is to apply a block Gibbs sampling where at each step a small subset of chains is jointly sampled. For instance, when we consider pairs of chains the time complexity for sampling a pair is O(16N ) while a full sweep over all possible N ). pairs requires time O(16 K(K?1) 2 2 .. .. .. 1 0 0 0 1 0 X (t) ! .. .. ; .. .. .. .. ! 0 1 .. 0 1 .. 0 0 .. X (t+1) .. .. .. 1 0 0 0 1 0 X (t) ! .. .. ? .. (a) .. .. .. 1 0 0 1 0 0 U (b) ! .. .. ? .. .. 0 1 .. .. 0 1 .. .. 0 0 .. X (t+1) ! Figure 2: Panel (a) shows an example where from a current state X (t) it is impossible to jump to a new state X (t+1) in a single step using block Gibbs sampling on pairs of rows. In contrast, Hamming ball sampling applied with the smallest valid radius, i.e. m = 1, can accomplish such move through the intermediate simulation of U as illustrated in (b). Specifically, simulating U from the uniform p(U |X) results in a state having one bit flipped per column compared to X (t) . Then sampling X (t+1) given U flips further two bits so in total X (t+1) differs by X (t) in four bits that exist in three different rows and two columns. While these schemes can propose large changes to X and be efficiently implemented using forwardbackward recursions, they can still easily get trapped to local modes of the posterior distribution. For instance, suppose we sample pairs of rows and we encounter a situation where, in order to escape from a local mode, four bits in two different columns (two bits from each column) must be jointly flipped. Given that these four bits belong to more than two rows, the above Gibbs sampler will fail to move out from the local mode no matter which row-pair, from the K(K?1) possible ones, is jointly 2 simulated. An illustrative example of this phenomenon is given in Figure 2(a). We could describe the conditional sampling updates of block Gibbs samplers as being locally asymmetric, in the sense that, in each step, one part of X is restricted to remain unchanged while the other part is free to change. As the above example indicates, these locally asymmetric updates can cause the chain to become trapped in local modes which can result in slow mixing. This can be particularly problematic in FHMMs where the observations are jointly dependent on the underlying hidden states which induces a coupling between rows of X. Of course, locality in any possible MCMC scheme for FHMMs seems unavoidable, certainly however, such a locality does not need to be asymmetric. In the next section, we develop a symmetrically local sampling approach so that each step gives a chance to any element of X to be flipped in any single update. 3 Hamming ball auxiliary sampling Here we develop the theory of the Hamming ball sampler. Section 3.1 presents the main idea while Section 3.2 discusses several extensions. 3.1 The basic Hamming ball algorithm Recall the K-dimensional binary vector xi (the i-th column of X) that defines the hidden state at i-th location. We consider the set of all K-dimensional binary vectors ui that lie within a certain Hamming distance from xi so that each ui is such that h(ui , xi ) ? m. (3) PK where m ? K. Here, h(ui , xi ) = k=1 I(uk,i 6= xk,i ) is the Hamming distance between two binary vectors and I(?) denotes the indicator function. Notice that the Hamming distance is simply the number of elements the two binary vectors disagree. We refer to the set of all ui s satisfying (3) as the i-th location Hamming ball of radius m. For instance, when m = 1, the above set includes all ui vectors restricted to be the same as xi but with at most one bit flipped, when m = 2 these vectors can have at most two bits flipped and so on. For a given m, the cardinality of the i-th location Hamming ball is m   X K M= . (4) j j=0 + K + 1 and so on. For m = 1 this number is equal to K + 1, for m = 2 is equal to K(K?1) 2 Clearly, when m = K there is no restriction on the values of ui and the above number takes its maximum value, i.e. M = 2K . Subsequently, given a certain X we define the full path Hamming 3 ball or simply Hamming ball as the set Bm (X) = {U ; h(ui , xi ) ? m, i = 1, . . . , N }, (5) where U is a K ? N binary matrix such that U = (u1 , . . . , uN ). This Hamming ball, centered at X, is simply the intersection of all i-th location Hamming balls of radius m. Clearly, the Hamming ball set is such that U ? Bm (X) iff X ? Bm (U ), or more concisely we can write I(U ? Bm (X)) = I(X ? Bm (U )). Furthermore, the indicator function I(U ? Bm (X)) factorizes as follows, I(U ? Bm (X)) = N Y I(h(ui , xi ) ? m). (6) i=1 We wish now to consider U as an auxiliary variable generated given X uniformly inside Bm (X), i.e. we define the conditional distribution 1 p(U |X) = I(U ? Bm (X)), (7) Z where crucially the normalizing constant Z simply reflects the volume of the ball and is independent from X. We can augment the initial joint model density from Eq. (2) with the auxiliary variables U and express the augmented model p(Y, X, U ) = p(Y |X)p(X)p(U |X). (8) Based on this, we can apply Gibbs sampling in the augmented space and iteratively sample U from the posterior conditional, which is just p(U |X), and then sample X given the remaining variables. Sampling p(U |X) is trivial as it requires to independently draw each ui , with i = 1, . . . , N , from the uniform distribution proportional to I(h(ui , xi ) ? m), i.e. randomly select a ui within Hamming distance at most m from xi . Then, sampling X is carried out by simulating from the following posterior conditional distribution ! N Y p(X|Y, U ) ? p(Y |X)p(X)p(U |X) ? p(yi |xi )I(h(xi , ui ) ? m) p(X), (9) i=1 where we used Eq. (6). Exact sampling from this distribution can be done using the FF-BS algorithm in O(M 2 N ) time where M is the size of each location-specific Hamming ball given in (4). The intuition behind the above algorithm is the following. Sampling p(U |X) given the current state X can be thought of as an exploration step where X is randomly perturbed to produce an auxiliary matrix U . We can imagine this as moving the Hamming ball that initially is centered at X to a new location centered at U . Subsequently, we take a slice of the model by considering only the binary matrices that exist inside this new Hamming ball, centered at U , and draw an new state for X by performing exact sampling in this sliced part of the model. Exact sampling is possible using the FF-BS recursion and it has an user-controllable time complexity that depends on the volume of the Hamming ball. An illustrative example of how the algorithm operates is given in Figure 2(b). To be ergodic the above sampling scheme (under standard conditions) the auxiliary variable U must be allowed to move away from the current X (t) (the value of X at the t-th iteration) which implies that the radius m must be strictly larger than zero. Furthermore, the maximum distance a new X (t+1) can travel away from the current X (t) in a single iteration is 2mN bits (assuming m ? K/2). This is because resampling a U given the current X (t) can select a U that differs at most mN bits from X (t) , while subsequently sampling X (t+1) given U further adds at most other mN bits. 3.2 Extensions So far we have defined Hamming ball sampling assuming binary factor chains in the FHMM. It is possible to generalize the whole approach to deal with factor chains that can take values in general finite discrete state spaces. Suppose that each hidden variable takes P values so that the matrix X ? {1, . . . , P }K?N . Exactly as in the binary case, the Hamming distance between the auxiliary vector ui ? {1, . . . , P }K and the corresponding i-th column xi of X is the number of elements these two vectors disagree. Based on this we can define the i-th location Hamming ball of radius m as the set of all ui s satisfying Eq. (3) which has cardinality   m X j K M= (P ? 1) . (10) j j=0 4 This, for m = 1 is equal (P ? 1)K + 1, for m = 2 it is equal to (P ? 1)2 K(K?1) + (P ? 1)K + 1 2 and so forth. Notice that for the binary case, where P = 2, all these expressions reduce to the ones from Section 3.1. Then, the sampling scheme from the previous section can be applied unchanged where in one step we sample U given the current X and in the second step we sample X given U using the FF-BS recursion. Another direction of extending the method is to vary the structure of the uniform distribution p(U |X) which essentially determines the exploration area around the current value of X. We can even add randomness in the structure of this distribution by further expanding the joint density in Eq. (8) with random variables that determine this structure. For instance, we can consider a distribution p(m) over the radius m that covers a range of possible values and then sample iteratively (U, m) from p(U |X, m)p(m) and X from p(X|Y, U, m) ? p(Y |X)p(X)p(U |X, m). This scheme remains valid since essentially it is Gibbs sampling in an augmented probability model where we added the auxiliary variables (U, m). In practical implementation, such a scheme would place high prior probability on small values of m where sampling iterations would be fast to compute and enable efficient exploration of local structure but, with non-zero probabilities on larger values on m, the sampler could still periodically consider larger portions of the model space that would allow more significant changes to the configuration of X. More generally, we can determine the structure of p(U |X) through a set of radius constraints m = (m1 , . . . , mQ ) and base our sampling on the augmented density p(Y, X, U, m) = p(Y |X)p(X)p(U |X, m)p(m). (11) For instance, we can choose m = (m1 , . . . , mN ) and consider mi as determining the radius of the i-location Hamming ball (for the column xi ) so that the corresponding uniform distribution over ui becomes p(ui |xi , mi ) ? I(h(ui , xi ) ? mi ). This could allow for asymmetric local moves where in some part of the hidden sequence (where mi s are large) we allow for greater exploration compared to others where the exploration can be more constrained. This could lead to more efficient variations of the Hamming Ball sampler where the vector m could be automatically tuned during sampling to focus computational effort in regions of the sequence where there is most uncertainty in the underlying latent structure of X. In a different direction, we could introduce the constraints m = (m1 , . . . , mK ) associated with the rows of X instead of the columns. This can lead to obtain regular Gibbs sampling as a special case. In particular, if p(m) is chosen so that in a random draw we pick a single k such that mk = N and the rest mk0 = 0, then we essentially freeze all rows of X apart from the k-th row1 and thus allowing the subsequent step of sampling X to reduce to exact sampling the k-th row of X using the FF-BS recursion. Under this perspective, block Gibbs sampling for FHMMs can be seen as a special case of Hamming ball sampling. Finally, there maybe utility in developing other proposals for sampling U based on distributions other than the uniform approach used here. For example, a local exponentially weighted proposal QN of the form p(U |X) ? i=1 exp(??h(ui , xi ))I(h(ui , xi ) ? m), would keep the centre of the proposed Hamming ball closer to its current location enabling more efficient exploration of local configurations. However, in developing alternative proposals, it is crucial that the normalizing constant of p(U |X) is computed efficiently so that the overall time complexity remains O(M 2 N ). 4 Experiments To demonstrate Hamming ball (HB) sampling we consider an additive FHMM as the one used in [6] and popularized recently for energy disaggregation applications [7, 10, 11]. In this model, each k-th factor chain interacts with the data through an associated mean vector wk ? RD so that each observed output yi is taken to be a noisy version of the sum of all factor vectors activated at time i: yi = w0 + K X wk xk,i + ? i , (12) k=1 1 In particular, for the rows k0 6= k the corresponding uniform distribution over uk0 ,i s collapses to a point delta mass centred at the previous states xk0 ,i s. 5 where w0 is an extra bias term while ? i is white noise that typically follows a Gaussian: ? i ? N (0, ? 2 I). Using this model we demonstrate the proposed method using an artificial dataset in Section 4.1 and a real dataset [11] in energy disaggregation in Section 4.2. In all examples, we compare HB with block Gibbs (BG) sampling. 4.1 Simulated dataset Here, we wish to investigate the ability of HB and BG sampling schemes to efficient escape from local modes of the posterior distribution. We consider an artificial data sequence of length N = 200 generated as follows. We simulated K = 5 factor chains (with vk = 0.5 , ?k = 0.05, k = 1, . . . , 5) which subsequently generated observations in the 25-dimensional space according to the additive FHMM from Eq. (12) assuming Gaussian noise with variance ? 2 = 0.05. The associated factor vector where selected to be wk = wk ? Maskk where wk = 0.8 + 0.05 ? (k ? 1), k = 1, . . . , 5 and Maskk denotes a 25-dimensional binary vector or a mask. All binary masks are displayed as 5 ? 5 binary images in Figure 1(a) in the supplementary file together with few examples of generated data points. Finally, the bias term w0 was set to zero. 2 We assume that the ground-truth model parameters ? = ({vk , ?k , wk , }K k=1 , w0 , ? ) that generated the data are known and our objective is to do posterior inference over the latent factors X ? {0, 1}5?200 , i.e. to draw samples from the conditional posterior distribution p(X|Y, ?). Since the data have been produced with small noise variance, this exact posterior is highly picked with most all the probability mass concentrated on the single configuration Xtrue that generated the data. So the question is whether BG and HB schemes will able to discover the ?unknown? Xtrue from a random initialization. We tested three block Gibbs sampling schemes: BG1, BG2 and BG3 that jointly sample blocks of rows of size one, two or three respectively. For each algorithm a full iteration is chosen to be a complete pass over all possible combinations of rows so that the time complexity per iteration for BG1 is O(20N ), for BG2 is O(160N ) and for BG3 is O(640N ). Regarding HB sampling we considered three schemes: HB1, HB2 and HB3 with radius m = 1, 2 and 3 respectively. The time complexities for these HB algorithms were O(36N ), O(256N ) and O(676N ). Notice that an exact sample from the posterior distribution can be drawn in O(1024N ) time. We run all algorithms assuming the same random initialization X (0) so that each bit was chosen from the uniform distribution. Figure 3(a) shows the evolution of the error of misclassified bits in X, i.e. the number of bits the state X (t) disagrees with the ground-truth Xtrue . Clearly, HB2 and HB3 discover quickly the optimal solution with HB3 being slightly faster. HB1 is unable to discover the ground-truth but it outperforms BG1 and BG2. All the block Gibbs sampling schemes, including the most expensive BG3 one, failed to reach Xtrue . 3500 350 200 150 2500 2000 1500 100 1000 50 500 0 0 50 100 150 Sampling iterations (a) 200 0 0 BG1 BG2 HB1 HB2 1600 Test MSE Number of errors in X 250 BG1 BG2 HB1 HB2 3000 Train MSE BG1 BG2 BG3 HB1 HB2 HB3 300 1400 1200 1000 200 400 600 800 Sampling iterations (b) 1000 0 50 100 150 Sampling iterations 200 (c) Figure 3: The panel in (a) shows the sampling evolution of the Hamming distance between Xtrue and X (t) for the three block Gibbs samplers (dashed lines) and the HB schemes (solid lines). The panel in (b) shows the evolution of the MSE during the MCMC training phase for the REDD dataset. The two Gibbs samplers are shown with dashed lines while the two HB algorithms with solid lines. Similarly to (b), the plot in (c) displays the evolution of MSEs for the prediction phase in the REDD example where we only simulate the factors X. 4.2 Energy disaggregation Here, we consider a real-world example from the field of energy disaggregation where the objective is to determine the component devices from an aggregated electricity signal. This technology is use6 ful because having a decomposition, into components for each device, of the total electricity usage in a household or building can be very informative to consumers and increase awareness of energy consumption which subsequently can lead to possibly energy savings. For full details regarding the energy disaggregation application see [7, 10, 11]. Next we consider a publicly available data set2 , called the Reference Energy Disaggregation Data Set (REDD) [11], to test the HB and BG sampling algorithms. The REDD data set contains several types of home electricity data for many different houses recorded during several weeks. Next, we will consider the main signal power of house_1 for seven days which is a temporal signal of length 604, 800 since power was recorded every second. We further downsampled this signal to every 9 seconds to obtain a sequence of 67, 200 size in which we applied the FHMM described below. Energy disaggregation can be naturally tackled by an additive FHMM framework, as realized in [10, 11], where an observed total electricity power yi at time instant i is the sum of individual powers for all devices that are ?on? at that time. Therefore, the observation model from Eq. (12) can be used to model this situation with the constraint that each device contribution wk (which is a scalar) is restricted to be non-negative. We assume an FHMM with K = 10 factors and we follow a Bayesian framework where each wk is parametrized by the exponential transformation, i.e. wk = ewek , and a vague zero-mean Gaussian prior is assigned on w ek . To learn these factors we apply unsupervised learning using as training data the first day of recorded data. This involves applying an Metropolis-within-Gibbs type of MCMC algorithm that iterates between the following three steps: i) sampling X, ii) sampling each w ek individually using its own Gaussian proposal distribution and accepting or rejecting based on the M-H step and iii) sampling the noise variance ? 2 based on its conjugate Gamma posterior distribution. Notice that the step ii) involves adapting the variance of the Gaussian proposal to achieve an acceptance ratio between 20 and 40 percent following standard ideas from adaptive MCMC. For the first step we consider one of the following four algorithms: BG1, BG2, HB1 and HB2 defined in the previous section. Once the FHMM has been trained then we would like to do predictions and infer the posterior distribution over the hidden factors for a test sequence, that will consist of the remaining six days, according to Z p(X? |Y? , Y ) = T 1X p(X? |Y? , W, ? )p(W, ? |Y )dW d? ? p(X? |Y? , W (t) , (? 2 )(t) ), (13) T t=1 2 2 2 where Y? denotes the test observations and X? the corresponding hidden sequence we wish to infer3 . This computation requires to be able to simulate from p(X? |Y? , W, ? 2 ) for a given fixed setting for the parameters (W, ? 2 ). Such prediction step will tell us which factors are ?on? at each time. Such factors could directly correspond to devices in the household, such as Electronics, Lighting, Refrigerator etc, however since our learning approach is purely unsupervised we will not attempt to establish correspondences between the inferred factors and the household appliances and, instead, we will focus on comparing the ability of the sampling algorithms to escape from local modes of the posterior distribution. To quantify such ability we will consider the mean squared error (MSE) between the model mean predictions and the actual data. Clearly, MSE for the test data can measure how well the model predicts the unseen electricity powers, while MSE at the training phase can indicate how well the chain mixes and reaches areas with high probability mass (where training data are reconstructed with small error). Figure 3(b) shows the evolution of MSE through the sampling iterations for the four MCMC algorithms used for training. Figure 3(c) shows the corresponding curves for the prediction phase, i.e. when sampling from p(X? |Y? , W, ? 2 ) given a representative sample from the posterior p(W, ? 2 |Y ). All four MSE curves in Figure 3(c) are produced by assuming the same setting for (W, ? 2 ) so that any difference observed between the algorithms depends solely on the ability to sample from p(X? |Y? , W, ? 2 ). Finally, Figure 4 shows illustrative plots on how we fit the data for all seven days (first row) and how we predict the test data on the second day (second row) together with corresponding inferred factors for the six most dominant hidden states (having the largest inferred wk values). The plots in Figure 4 were produced based on the HB2 output. Some conclusions we can draw are the following. Firstly, Figure 3(c) clearly indicate that both HB algorithms for the prediction phase, where the factor weights wk are fixed and given, are much better than block Gibbs samplers in escaping from local modes and discovering hidden state configurations 2 Available from http://redd.csail.mit.edu/. Notice that we have also assumed that the training and test sequences are conditionally independent given the model parameters (W, ? 2 ). 3 7 that explain more efficiently the data. Moreover, HB2 is clearly better than HB1, as expected, since it considers larger global moves. When we are jointly sampling weights wk and their interacting latent binary states (as done in the training MCMC phase), then, as Figure 3(b) shows, block Gibbs samplers can move faster towards fitting the data and exploring local modes while HB schemes are slower in terms of that. Nevertheless, the HB2 algorithm eventually reaches an area with smaller MSE error than the block Gibbs samplers. 4000 2000 0 Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Day 2 Figure 4: First row shows the data for all seven days together with the model predictions (the blue solid line corresponds to the training part and the red line to the test part). Second row zooms in the predictions for the second day, while the third row shows the corresponding activations of the six most dominant factors (displayed with different colors). All these results are based on the HB2 output. 5 Discussion Exact sampling using FF-BS over the entire model space for the FHMM is intractable. Alternative solutions based on conditional updating approaches that use locally asymmetric moves will lead to poor mixing due to the sampler becoming trapped in local modes. We have shown that the Hamming ball sampler gives a relative improvement over conditional approaches through the use of locally symmetric moves that permits joint updating of hidden chains and improves mixing. Whilst we have presented the Hamming ball sampler applied to the factorial hidden Markov model, it is applicable to any statistical model where the observed data vector yi depends only on the i-th column of a binary latent variable matrix X and observed data Y and hence the joint density can be QN factored as p(X, Y ) ? p(X) i=1 p(yi |xi ). Examples include the spike and slab variable selection models in Bayesian linear regression [12] and multiple membership models including Bayesian nonparametric models that utilize the Indian buffet process [13, 14]. While, in standard versions of these models, the columns of X are independent and posterior inference is trivially parallelizable, the utility of the Hamming ball sampler arises where K is large and sampling individual columns of X is itself computationally very demanding. Other suitable models that might be applicable include more complex dependence structures that involve coupling between Markov chains and undirected dependencies. Acknowledgments We thank the reviewers for insightful comments. MKT greatly acknowledges support from ?Research Funding at AUEB for Excellence and Extroversion, Action 1: 2012-2014?. CY acknowledges the support of a UK Medical Research Council New Investigator Research Grant (Ref No. MR/L001411/1). CY is also affiliated with the Department of Statistics, University of Oxford. 8 References [1] Lawrence Rabiner. A tutorial on hidden Markov models and selected applications in speech recognition. Proceedings of the IEEE, 77(2):257?286, 1989. [2] Steven L Scott. Bayesian methods for hidden Markov models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 97(457), 2002. [3] Na Li and Matthew Stephens. Modeling linkage disequilibrium and identifying recombination hotspots using single-nucleotide polymorphism data. Genetics, 165(4):2213?2233, 2003. [4] Jonathan Marchini and Bryan Howie. Genotype imputation for genome-wide association studies. Nature Reviews Genetics, 11(7):499?511, 2010. [5] Christopher Yau. OncoSNP-SEQ: a statistical approach for the identification of somatic copy number alterations from next-generation sequencing of cancer genomes. Bioinformatics, 29 (19):2482?2484, 2013. [6] Zoubin Ghahramani and Michael I. Jordan. Factorial hidden Markov models. Mach. Learn., 29(2-3):245?273, November 1997. [7] J Zico Kolter and Tommi Jaakkola. Approximate inference in additive factorial HMMs with application to energy disaggregation. In International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, pages 1472?1482, 2012. [8] Radford M Neal. Slice sampling. Annals of Statistics, pages 705?741, 2003. [9] Robert H Swendsen and Jian-Sheng Wang. Nonuniversal critical dynamics in Monte Carlo simulations. Physical review letters, 58(2):86?88, 1987. [10] Hyungsul Kim, Manish Marwah, Martin F. Arlitt, Geoff Lyon, and Jiawei Han. Unsupervised disaggregation of low frequency power measurements. In SDM, pages 747?758. SIAM / Omnipress, 2011. [11] J. Zico Kolter and Matthew J. Johnson. REDD: a public data set for energy disaggregation research. In SustKDD Workshop on Data Mining Applications in Sustainability, 2011. [12] Toby J Mitchell and John J Beauchamp. Bayesian variable selection in linear regression. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83(404):1023?1032, 1988. [13] Thomas L Griffiths and Zoubin Ghahramani. Infinite latent feature models and the Indian buffet process. In NIPS, volume 18, pages 475?482, 2005. [14] J. Van Gael, Y. W. Teh, and Z. Ghahramani. The infinite factorial hidden Markov model. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, volume 21, 2009. 9
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Log-Hilbert-Schmidt metric between positive definite operators on Hilbert spaces H`a Quang Minh Marco San Biagio Vittorio Murino Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia Via Morego 30, Genova 16163, ITALY {minh.haquang,marco.sanbiagio,vittorio.murino}@iit.it Abstract This paper introduces a novel mathematical and computational framework, namely Log-Hilbert-Schmidt metric between positive definite operators on a Hilbert space. This is a generalization of the Log-Euclidean metric on the Riemannian manifold of positive definite matrices to the infinite-dimensional setting. The general framework is applied in particular to compute distances between covariance operators on a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS), for which we obtain explicit formulas via the corresponding Gram matrices. Empirically, we apply our formulation to the task of multi-category image classification, where each image is represented by an infinite-dimensional RKHS covariance operator. On several challenging datasets, our method significantly outperforms approaches based on covariance matrices computed directly on the original input features, including those using the Log-Euclidean metric, Stein and Jeffreys divergences, achieving new state of the art results. 1 Introduction and motivation Symmetric Positive Definite (SPD) matrices, in particular covariance matrices, have been playing an increasingly important role in many areas of machine learning, statistics, and computer vision, with applications ranging from kernel learning [12], brain imaging [9], to object detection [24, 23]. One key property of SPD matrices is the following. For a fixed n ? N, the set of all SPD matrices of size n ? n is not a subspace in Euclidean space, but is a Riemannian manifold with nonpositive curvature, denoted by Sym++ (n). As a consequence of this manifold structure, computational methods for Sym++ (n) that simply rely on Euclidean metrics are generally suboptimal. In the current literature, many methods have been proposed to exploit the non-Euclidean structure of Sym++ (n). For the purposes of the present work, we briefly describe three common approaches here, see e.g. [9] for other methods. The first approach exploits the affine-invariant metric, which is the classical Riemannian metric on Sym++ (n) [18, 16, 3, 19, 4, 24]. The main drawback of this framework is that it tends to be computationally intensive, especially for large scale applications. Overcoming this computational complexity is one of the main motivations for the recent development of the Log-Euclidean metric framework of [2], which has been exploited in many computer vision applications, see e.g. [25, 11, 17]. The third approach defines and exploits Bregman divergences on Sym++ (n), such as Stein and Jeffreys divergences, see e.g. [12, 22, 8], which are not Riemannian metrics but are fast to compute and have been shown to work well on nearest-neighbor retrieval tasks. While each approach has its advantages and disadvantages, the Log-Euclidean metric possesses several properties which are lacking in the other two approaches. First, it is faster to compute than the affine-invariant metric. Second, unlike the Bregman divergences, it is a Riemannian metric on Sym++ (n) and thus can better capture its manifold structure. Third, in the context of kernel 1 learning, it is straightforward to construct positive definite kernels, such as the Gaussian kernel, using this metric. This is not always the case with the other two approaches: the Gaussian kernel constructed with the Stein divergence, for instance, is only positive definite for certain choices of parameters [22], and the same is true with the affine-invariant metric, as can be numerically verified. Our contributions: In this work, we generalize the Log-Euclidean metric to the infinitedimensional setting, both mathematically, computationally, and empirically. Our novel metric, termed Log-Hilbert-Schmidt metric (or Log-HS for short), measures the distances between positive definite unitized Hilbert-Schmidt operators, which are scalar perturbations of Hilbert-Schmidt operators on a Hilbert space and which are infinite-dimensional generalizations of positive definite matrices. These operators have recently been shown to form an infinite-dimensional Riemann-Hilbert manifold by [14, 1, 15], who formulated the infinite-dimensional version of the affine-invariant metric from a purely mathematical viewpoint. While our Log-Hilbert-Schmidt metric framework includes the Log-Euclidean metric as a special case, the infinite-dimensional formulation is significantly different from its corresponding finite-dimensional version, as we demonstrate throughout the paper. In particular, one cannot obtain the infinite-dimensional formulas from the finite-dimensional ones by letting the dimension approach infinity. Computationally, we apply our abstract mathematical framework to compute distances between covariance operators on an RKHS induced by a positive definite kernel. From a kernel learning perspective, this is motivated by the fact that covariance operators defined on nonlinear features, which are obtained by mapping the original data into a high-dimensional feature space, can better capture input correlations than covariance matrices defined on the original data. This is a viewpoint that goes back to KernelPCA [21]. In our setting, we obtain closed form expressions for the LogHilbert-Schmidt metric between covariance operators via the Gram matrices. Empirically, we apply our framework to the task of multi-class image classification. In our approach, the original features extracted from each input image are implicitly mapped into the RKHS induced by a positive definite kernel. The covariance operator defined on the RKHS is then used as the representation for the image and the distance between two images is the Log-Hilbert-Schmidt distance between their corresponding covariance operators. On several challenging datasets, our method significantly outperforms approaches based on covariance matrices computed directly on the original input features, including those using the Log-Euclidean metric, Stein and Jeffreys divergences. Related work: The approach most closely related to our current work is [26], which computed probabilistic distances in RKHS. This approach has recently been employed by [10] to compute Bregman divergences between RKHS covariance operators. There are two main theoretical issues with the approach in [26, 10]. The first issue is that it is assumed implicitly that the concepts of trace and determinant can be extended to any bounded linear operator on an infinite-dimensional Hilbert space H. This is not true in general, as the concepts of trace and determinant are only welldefined for certain classes of operators. Many quantities involved in the computation of the Bregman divergences in [10] are in fact infinite when dim(H) = ?, which is the case if H is the Gaussian RKHS, and only cancel each other out in special cases 1 . The second issue concerns the use of the Stein divergence by [10] to define the Gaussian kernel, which is not always positive definite, as discussed above. In contrast, the Log-HS metric formulation proposed in this paper is theoretically rigorous and it is straightforward to define many positive definite kernels, including the Gaussian kernel, with this metric. Furthermore, our empirical results consistently outperform those of [10]. Organization: After some background material in Section 2, we describe the manifold of positive definite operators in Section 3. Sections 4 and 5 form the core of the paper, where we develop the general framework for the Log-Hilbert-Schmidt metric together with the explicit formulas for the case of covariance operators on an RKHS. Empirical results for image classification are given in Section 6. The proofs for all mathematical results are given in the Supplementary Material. 2 Background The Riemannian manifold of positive definite matrices: The manifold structure of Sym++ (n) has been studied extensively, both mathematically and computationally. This study goes as far 1 We will provide a theoretically rigorous formulation for the Bregman divergences between positive definite operators in a longer version of the present work. 2 back as [18], for more recent treatments see e.g. [16, 3, 19, 4]. The most commonly encountered Riemannian metric on Sym++ (n) is the affine-invariant metric, in which the geodesic distance between two positive definite matrices A and B is given by d(A, B) = || log(A?1/2 BA?1/2 )||F , (1) where log denotes the matrix logarithm operation and F is an Euclidean norm on the space of symmetric matrices Sym(n). Following the classical literature, in this work we take F to be the Frobenious norm, which is induced by the standard inner product on Sym(n). From a practical viewpoint, the metric (1) tends to be computationally intensive, which is one of the main motivations for the Log-Euclidean metric of [2], in which the geodesic distance between A and B is given by dlogE (A, B) = || log(A) ? log(B)||F . (2) The main goal of this paper is to generalize the Log-Euclidean metric to what we term the LogHilbert-Schmidt metric between positive definite operators on an infinite-dimensional Hilbert space and apply this metric in particular to compute distances between covariance operators on an RKHS. Covariance operators: Let the input space X be an arbitrary non-empty set. Let x = [x1 , . . . , xm ] be a data matrix sampled from X , where m ? N is the number of observations. Let K be a positive definite kernel on X ? X and HK its induced reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). Let ? : X ? HK be the corresponding feature map, which gives the (potentially infinite) mapped data matrix ?(x) = [?(x1 ), . . . , ?(xm )] of size dim(HK ) ? m in the feature space HK . The corresponding covariance operator for ?(x) is defined to be 1 C?(x) = ?(x)Jm ?(x)T : HK ? HK , (3) m 1 where Jm is the centering matrix, defined by Jm = Im ? m 1m 1Tm with 1m = (1, . . . , 1)T ? Rm . 2 The matrix Jm is symmetric, with rank(Jm ) = m ? 1, and satisfies Jm = Jm . The covariance operator C?(x) can be viewed as a (potentially infinite) covariance matrix in the feature space HK , with rank at most m ? 1. If X = Rn and K(x, y) = hx, yiRn , then C?(x) = Cx , the standard n ? n covariance matrix encountered in statistics. 2 Regularization: Generally, covariance matrices may not be full-rank and thus may only be positive semi-definite. In order to apply the theory of Sym++ (n), one needs to consider the regularized version (Cx + ?IRn ) for some ? > 0. In the infinite-dimensional setting, with dim(HK ) = ?, C?(x) is always rank-deficient and regularization is always necessary. With ? > 0, (C?(x) + ?IHK ) is strictly positive and invertible, both of which are needed to define the Log-Hilbert-Schmidt metric. 3 Positive definite unitized Hilbert-Schmidt operators Throughout the paper, let H be a separable Hilbert space of arbitrary dimension. Let L(H) be the Banach space of bounded linear operators on H and Sym(H) be the subspace of self-adjoint operators in L(H). We first describe in this section the manifold of positive definite unitized HilbertSchmidt operators on which the Log-Hilbert-Schmidt metric is defined. This manifold setting is motivated by the following two crucial differences between the finite and infinite-dimensional cases. (A) Positive definite: If A ? Sym(H) and dim(H) = ?, in order for log(A) to be well-defined and bounded, it is not sufficient to require that all eigenvalues of A be strictly positive. Instead, it is necessary to require that all eigenvalues of A be bounded below by a positive constant (Section 3.1). (B) Unitized Hilbert-Schmidt: The infinite-dimensional generalization of the Frobenious norm is the Hilbert-Schmidt norm. However, if dim(H) = ?, the identity operator I is not Hilbert-Schmidt and would have infinite distance from any Hilbert-Schmidt operator. To have a satisfactory framework, it is necessary to enlarge the algebra of Hilbert-Schmidt operators to include I (Section 3.2). These differences between the cases dim(H) = ? and dim(H) < ? are sharp and manifest themselves in the concrete formulas for the Log-Hilbert-Schmidt metric which we obtain in Sections 4.2 and 5. In particular, the formulas for the case dim(H) = ? are not obtainable from their corresponding finite-dimensional versions when dim(H) ? ?. 2 One can also define C?(x) = is large. 1 ?(x)Jm ?(x)T . m?1 3 This should not make much practical difference if m 3.1 Positive definite operators Positive and strictly positive operators: Let us discuss the first crucial difference between the finite and infinite-dimensional settings. Recall that an operator A ? Sym(H) is said to be positive if hAx, xi ? 0 ?x ? H. The eigenvalues of A, if they exist, are all nonnegative. If A is positive and hAx, xi = 0 ?? x = 0, then A is said to be strictly positive, and all its eigenvalues are positive. We denote the sets of all positive and strictly positive operators on H, respectively, by Sym+ (H) and Sym++ (H). Let A ? Sym++ (H). Assume that A is compact, then A has a countable spectrum of dim(H) positive eigenvalues {?k (A)}k=1 , counting multiplicities, with limk?? ?k (A) = 0 if dim(H) = dim(H) ?. Let {?k (A)}k=1 denote the corresponding normalized eigenvectors, then dim(H) X A= ?k (A)?k (A) ? ?k (A), (4) k=1 where ?k (A) ? ?k (A) : H ? H is defined by (?k (A) ? ?k (A))w = hw, ?k (A)i?k (A), The logarithm of A is defined by dim(H) X log(A) = log(?k (A))?k (A) ? ?k (A). w ? H. (5) k=1 Clearly, log(A) is bounded if and only if dim(H) < ?, since for dim(H) = ?, we have limk?? log(?k (A)) = ??. Thus, when dim(H) = ?, the condition that A be strictly positive is not sufficient for log(A) to be bounded. Instead, the following stronger condition is necessary. Positive definite operators: A self-adjoint operator A ? L(H) is said to be positive definite (see e.g. [20]) if there exists a constant MA > 0 such that hAx, xi ? MA ||x||2 for all x ? H. (6) The eigenvalues of A, if they exist, are bounded below by MA . This condition is equivalent to requiring that A be strictly positive and invertible, with A?1 ? L(H). Clearly, if dim(H) < ?, then strict positivity is equivalent to positive definiteness. Let P(H) denote the open cone of selfadjoint, positive definite, bounded operators on H, that is P(H) = {A ? L(H), A? = A, ?MA > 0 s.t. hAx, xi ? MA ||x||2 ?x ? H}. (7) Throughout the remainder of the paper, we use the following notation: A > 0 ?? A ? P(H). 3.2 The Riemann-Hilbert manifold of positive definite unitized Hilbert-Schmidt operators Let HS(H) denote the two-sided ideal of Hilbert-Schmidt operators on H in L(H), which is a Banach algebra with the Hilbert-Schmidt norm, defined by dim(H) X ||A||2HS = tr(A? A) = ?k (A? A). (8) k=1 We now discuss the second crucial difference between the finite and infinite-dimensional settings. If dim(H) = ?, then the identity operator I is not Hilbert-Schmidt, since ||I||HS = ?. Thus, given ? 6= ? > 0, we have || log(?I) ? log(?I)||HS = | log(?) ? log(?)| ||I||HS = ?, that is even the distance between two different multiples of the identity operator is infinite. This problem is resolved by considering the following extended (or unitized) Hilbert-Schmidt algebra [14, 1, 15]: HR = {A + ?I : A? = A, A ? HS(H), ? ? R}. (9) This can be endowed with the extended Hilbert-Schmidt inner product hA + ?I, B + ?IieHS = tr(A? B) + ?? = hA, BiHS + ??, (10) under which the scalar operators are orthogonal to the Hilbert-Schmidt operators. The corresponding extended Hilbert-Schmidt norm is given by ||(A + ?I)||2eHS = ||A||2HS + ? 2 , where A ? HS(H). (11) If dim(H) < ?, then we set || ||eHS = || ||HS , with ||(A + ?I)||eHS = ||A + ?I||HS . Manifold of positive definite unitized Hilbert-Schmidt operators: Define ?(H) = P(H) ? HR = {A + ?I > 0 : A? = A, A ? HS(H), ? ? R}. dim(H) {?k (A) + ?}k=1 (12) If (A + ?I) ? ?(H), then it has a countable spectrum satisfying ?k + ? ? MA for some constant MA > 0. Thus (A + ?I)?1 exists and is bounded, and log(A + ?I) as defined by (5) is well-defined and bounded, with log(A + ?I) ? HR . 4 The main results of [15] state that when dim(H) = ?, ?(H) is an infinite-dimensional RiemannHilbert manifold and the map log : ?(H) ? HR and its inverse exp : HR ? ?(H) are diffeomorphisms. The Riemannian distance between two operators (A + ?I), (B + ?I) ? ?(H) is given by d[(A + ?I), (B + ?I)] = || log[(A + ?I)?1/2 (B + ?I)(A + ?I)?1/2 ]||eHS . This is the infinite-dimensional version of the affine-invariant metric (1) 3 . 4 (13) Log-Hilbert-Schmidt metric This section defines and develops the Log-Hilbert-Schmidt metric, which is the infinite-dimensional generalization of the Log-Euclidean metric (2). The general formulation presented in this section is then applied to RKHS covariance operators in Section 5. 4.1 The general setting Consider the following operations on ?(H): (A + ?I) (B + ?I) = exp(log(A + ?I) + log(B + ?I)), (14) ?  (A + ?I) = exp(? log(A + ?I)) = (A + ?I)? , (15) ? ? R. Vector space structure on ?(H): The key property of the operation is that, unlike the usual operator product, it is commutative, making (?(H), ) an abelian group and (?(H), , ) a vector space, which is isomorphic to the vector space (HR , +, ?), as shown by the following. Theorem 1. Under the two operations and , (?(H), , ) becomes a vector space, with acting as vector addition and  acting as scalar multiplication. The zero element in (?(H), , ) is the identity operator I and the inverse of (A + ?I) is (A + ?I)?1 . Furthermore, the map ? : (?(H), , ) ? (HR , +, ?) defined by ?(A + ?I) = log(A + ?I), (16) is a vector space isomorphism, so that for all (A + ?I), (B + ?I) ? ?(H) and ? ? R, ?((A + ?I) (B + ?I)) = log(A + ?I) + log(B + ?I), ?(?  (A + ?I)) = ? log(A + ?I), (17) where + and ? denote the usual operator addition and multiplication operations, respectively. Metric space structure on ?(H): Motivated by the vector space isomorphism between (?(H), , ) and (HR , +, ?) via the mapping ?, the following is our generalization of the LogEuclidean metric to the infinite-dimensional setting. Definition 1. The Log-Hilbert-Schmidt distance between two operators (A + ?I) ? ?(H), (B + ?I) ? ?(H) is defined to be dlogHS [(A + ?I), (B + ?I)] = log[(A + ?I) (B + ?I)?1 ] . (18) eHS Remark 1. For our purposes in the current work, we focus on the Log-HS metric as defined above based on the one-to-one correspondence between the algebraic structures of (?(H), , ) and (HR , +, ?). An in-depth treatment of the Log-HS metric in connection with the manifold structure of ?(H) will be provided in a longer version of the paper. The following theorem shows that the Log-Hilbert-Schmidt distance satisfies all the axioms of a metric, making (?(H), dlogHS ) a metric space. Furthermore, the square Log-Hilbert-Schmidt distance decomposes uniquely into a sum of a square Hilbert-Schmidt norm plus a scalar term. Theorem 2. The Log-Hilbert-Schmidt distance as defined in (18) is a metric, making (?(H), dlogHS ) a metric space. Let (A + ?I) ? ?(H), (B + ?I) ? ?(H). If dim(H) = ?, then there exist unique operators A1 , B1 ? HS(H) ? Sym(H) and scalars ?1 , ?1 ? R such that A + ?I = exp(A1 + ?1 I), B + ?I = exp(B1 + ?1 I), and 2 (19) d2logHS [(A + ?I), (B + ?I)] = kA1 ? B1 kHS + (?1 ? ?1 )2 . (20) If dim(H) < ?, then (19) and (20) hold with A1 = log(A + ?I), B1 = log(B + ?I), ?1 = ?1 = 0. 3 We give a more detailed discussion of Eqs. (12) and (13) in the Supplementary Material. 5 Log-Euclidean metric: Theorem 2 states that when dim(H) < ?, we have dlogHS [(A + ?I), (B + ?I)] = dlogE [(A + ?I), (B + ?I)]. We have thus recovered the Log-Euclidean metric as a special case of our framework. Hilbert space structure on (?(H), , ): Motivated by formula (20), whose right hand side is a square extended Hilbert-Schmidt distance, we now show that (?(H), , ) can be endowed with an inner product, under which it becomes a Hilbert space. Definition 2. Let (A + ?I), (B + ?I) ? ?(H). Let A1 , B1 ? HS(H) ? Sym(H) and ?1 , ?1 ? R be the unique operators and scalars, respectively, such that A + ?I = exp(A1 + ?1 I) and B + ?I = exp(B1 + ?1 I), as in Theorem 2. The Log-Hilbert-Schmidt inner product between (A + ?I) and (B + ?I) is defined by hA + ?I, B + ?IilogHS = hlog(A + ?I), log(B + ?I)ieHS = hA1 , B1 iHS + ?1 ?1 . (21) Theorem 3. The inner product h , ilogHS as given in (21) is well-defined on (?(H), , ). Endowed with this inner product, (?(H), , , h , ilogHS ) becomes a Hilbert space. The corresponding Log-Hilbert-Schmidt norm is given by ||A + ?I||2logHS = || log(A + ?I)||2eHS = ||A1 ||2HS + ?12 . (22) In terms of this norm, the Log-Hilbert-Schmidt distance is given by dlogHS [(A + ?I), (B + ?I)] = (A + ?I) (B + ?I)?1 logHS . (23) Positive definite kernels defined with the Log-Hilbert-Schmidt metric: An important consequence of the Hilbert space structure of (?(H), , , h , ilogHS ) is that it is straightforward to generalize many positive definite kernels on Euclidean space to ?(H) ? ?(H). Corollary 1. The following kernels defined on ?(H) ? ?(H) are positive definite: K[(A + ?I), (B + ?I)] = (c + hA + ?I, B + ?IilogHS )d , K[(A + ?I), (B + ?I)] = 4.2 exp(?dplogHS [(A d ? N, (24) + ?I), (B + ?I)]/? ), 0 < p ? 2. (25) c > 0, 2 Log-Hilbert-Schmidt metric between regularized positive operators For our purposes in the present work, we focus on the following subset of ?(H): ?+ (H) = {A + ?I : A ? HS(H) ? Sym+ (H) , ? > 0} ? ?(H). (26) Examples of operators in ?+ (H) are the regularized covariance operators (C?(x) + ?I) with ? > 0. In this case the formulas in Theorems 2 and 3 have the following concrete forms. Theorem 4. Assume that dim(H) = ?. Let A, B ? HS(H) ? Sym+ (H). Let ?, ? > 0. Then 1 1 d2logHS [(A + ?I), (B + ?I)] = || log( A + I) ? log( B + I)||2HS + (log ? ? log ?)2 . (27) ? ? Their Log-Hilbert-Schmidt inner product is given by 1 1 h(A + ?I), (B + ?I)ilogHS = hlog( A + I), log( B + I)iHS + (log ?)(log ?). (28) ? ? Finite dimensional case: As a consequence of the differences between the cases dim(H) < ? and dim(H) = ?, we have different formulas for the case dim(H) < ?, which depend on dim(H) and which are surprisingly more complicated than in the case dim(H) = ?. Theorem 5. Assume that dim(H) < ?. Let A, B ? Sym+ (H). Let ?, ? > 0. Then A B d2logHS [(A + ?I), (B + ?I)] = || log( + I) ? log( + I)||2HS ? ? A B +2(log ? ? log ?)tr[log( + I) ? log( + I)] + (log ? ? log ?)2 dim(H). (29) ? ? The Log-Hilbert-Schmidt inner product between (A + ?I) and (B + ?I) is given by A B h(A + ?I), (B + ?I)ilogHS = hlog( + I), log( + I)iHS ? ? B A +(log ?)tr[log( + I)] + (log ?)tr[log( + I)] + (log ? log ?) dim(H). (30) ? ? 6 5 Log-Hilbert-Schmidt metric between regularized covariance operators Let X be an arbitrary non-empty set. In this section, we apply the general results of Section 4 to compute the Log-Hilbert-Schmidt distance between covariance operators on an RKHS induced by a positive definite kernel K on X ? X . In this case, we have explicit formulas for dlogHS and the inner m product h , ilogHS via the corresponding Gram matrices. Let x = [xi ]m i=1 , y = [yi ]i=1 , m ? N, be two data matrices sampled from X and C?(x) , C?(y) be the corresponding covariance operators induced by the kernel K, as defined in Section 2. Let K[x], K[y], and K[x, y] be the m ? m Gram matrices defined by (K[x])ij = K(xi , xj ), (K[y])ij = K(yi , yj ), (K[x, y])ij = K(xi , yj ), 1 1 1 ? i, j ? m. Let A = ??m ?(x)Jm : Rm ? HK , B = ??m ?(y)Jm : Rm ? HK , so that 1 1 1 AT A = Jm K[x]Jm , B T B = Jm K[y]Jm , AT B = ? Jm K[x, y]Jm . (31) ?m ?m ??m Let NA and NB be the numbers of nonzero eigenvalues of AT A and B T B, respectively. Let ?A and ?B be the diagonal matrices of size NA ? NA and NB ? NB , and UA and UB be the matrices of size m ? NA and m ? NB , respectively, which are obtained from the spectral decompositions 1 1 Jm K[x]Jm = UA ?A UAT , Jm K[y]Jm = UB ?B UBT . (32) ?m ?m In the following, let ? denote the Hadamard (element-wise) matrix product. Define ?1 T T T T CAB = 1TNA log(INA + ?A )??1 A (UA A BUB ? UA A BUB )?B log(INB + ?B )1NB . (33) Theorem 6. Assume that dim(HK ) = ?. Let ? > 0, ? > 0. Then d2logHS [(C?(x) + ?I), (C?(y) + ?I)] = tr[log(INA + ?A )]2 + tr[log(INB + ?B )]2 ?2CAB + (log ? ? log ?)2 . (34) The Log-Hilbert-Schmidt inner product between (C?(x) + ?I) and (C?(y) + ?I) is h(C?(x) + ?I), (C?(y) + ?I)ilogHS = CAB + (log ?)(log ?). (35) Theorem 7. Assume that dim(HK ) < ?. Let ? > 0, ? > 0. Then d2logHS [(C?(x) + ?I), (C?(y) + ?I)] = tr[log(INA + ?A )]2 + tr[log(INB + ?B )]2 ? 2CAB ? ? +2(log )(tr[log(INA + ?A )] ? tr[log(INB + ?B )]) + (log )2 dim(HK ). (36) ? ? The Log-Hilbert-Schmidt inner product between (C?(x) + ?I) and (C?(y) + ?I) is h(C?(x) + ?I), (C?(y) + ?I)ilogHS = CAB + (log ?)tr[log(INA + ?A )] +(log ?)tr[log(INB + ?B )] + (log ? log ?) dim(HK ). 6 (37) Experimental results This section demonstrates the empirical performance of the Log-HS metric on the task of multicategory image classification. For each input image, the original features extracted from the image are implicitly mapped into the infinite-dimensional RKHS induced by the Gaussian kernel. The covariance operator defined on the RKHS is called the GaussianCOV and is used as the representation for the image. In a classification algorithm, the distance between two images is the Log-HS distance between their corresponding GaussianCOVs. This is compared with the directCOV representation, that is covariance matrices defined using the original input features. In all of the experiments, we employed LIBSVM [7] as the classification method. The following algorithms were evaluated in our experiments: Log-E (directCOV and Gaussian SVM using the Log-Euclidean metric), Log-HS (GaussianCOV and Gaussian SVM using the Log-HS metric), Log-HS? (GaussianCOV and SVM )). For all experiments, the kernel parameters with the Laplacian kernel K(x, y) = exp(? ||x?y|| ? were chosen by cross validation, while the regularization parameters were fixed to be ? = ? = 10?8 . We also compare with empirical results by the different algorithms in [10], namely J-SVM and SSVM (SVM with the Jeffreys and Stein divergences between directCOVs, respectively), JH -SVM and SH -SVM (SVM with the Jeffreys and Stein divergences between GaussianCOVs, respectively), and results of the Covariance Discriminant Learning (CDL) technique of [25], which can be considered as the state-of-the-art for COV-based classification. All results are reported in Table1. 7 Kylberg texture KTH-TIPS2b KTH-TIPS2b (RGB) Fish GaussianCOV Log-HS Log-HS? SH -SVM[10] JH -SVM[10] 92.58%(?1.23) 92.56%(?1.26) 91.36%(?1.27) 91.25%(?1.33) 81.91%(?3.3) 81.50%(?3.90) 80.10%(?4.60) 79.90%(?3.80) 79.94%(?4.6) 77.53%(?5.2) - 56.74%(?2.87) 56.43%(?3.02) - directCOV Table 1: Results over all the datasets Methods Log-E S-SVM[10] J-SVM[10] CDL [25] 87.49%(?1.54) 81.27%(?1.07) 82.19%(?1.30) 79.87%(?1.06) 74.11%(?7.41) 78.30%(?4.84) 74.70%(?2.81) 76.30%(?5.10) 74.13%(?6.1) - 42.70%(?3.45) - Texture classification: For this task, we used the Kylberg texture dataset [13], which contains 28 texture classes of different natural and man-made surfaces, with each class consisting of 160 images. For this dataset, we followed the validation protocol of [10], where each image is resized to a dimension of 128 ? 128, with m = 1024 observations computed on a coarse grid (i.e., every 4 pixels in the horizontal and vertical direction). At each point, we extracted a set of n = 5 lowlevel features F(x, y) = [Ix,y , |Ix | , |Iy | , |Ixx | , |Iyy |] , where I, Ix , Iy , Ixx and Iyy , are the intensity, first- and second-order derivatives of the texture image. We randomly selected 5 images in each class for training and used the remaining ones as test data, repeating the entire procedure 10 times. We report the mean and the standard deviation values for the classification accuracies for the different experiments over all 10 random training/testing splits. Material classification: For this task, we used the KTH-TIPS2b dataset [6], which contains images of 11 materials captured under 4 different illuminations, in 3 poses, and at 9 scales. The total number of images per class is 108. We applied the same protocol as used for the previous dataset  [10],  4,5 extracting 23 low-level dense features: F(x, y) = Rx,y , Gx,y , Bx,y , G0,0 x,y , . . . Gx,y , where Rx,y , Gx,y , Bx,y are the color intensities and Go,s x,y are the 20 Gabor filters at 4 orientations and 5 scales. We report the mean and the standard deviation values for all the 4 splits of the dataset. Fish recognition: The third dataset used is the Fish Recognition dataset [5]. The fish data are acquired from a live video dataset resulting in 27370 verified fish images. The whole dataset is divided into 23 classes. The number of images per class ranges from 21 to 12112, with a medium resolution of roughly 150 ? 120 pixels. The significant variations in color, pose and illumination inside each class make this dataset very challenging. We apply the same protocol as used for the previous datasets, extracting the 3 color intensities from each image to show the effectiveness of our method: F(x, y) = [Rx,y , Gx,y , Bx,y ]. We randomly selected 5 images from each class for training and 15 for testing, repeating the entire procedure 10 times. Discussion of results: As one can observe in Table1, in all of the datasets, the Log-HS framework, operating on GaussianCOVs, significantly outperforms approaches based on directCOVs computed using the original input features, including those using Log-Euclidean, Stein and Jeffreys divergences. Across all datasets, our improvement over the Log-Euclidean metric is up to 14% in accuracy. This is consistent with kernel-based learning theory, because GaussianCOVs, defined on the infinite-dimensional RKHS, can better capture nonlinear input correlations than directCOVs, as we expected. To the best of our knowledge, our results in the Texture and Material classification experiments are the new state of the art results for these datasets. Furthermore, our results, which are obtained using a theoretically rigorous framework, also consistently outperform those of [10]. The computational complexity of our framework, its two-layer kernel machine interpretation, and other discussions are given in the Supplementary Material. Conclusion and future work We have presented a novel mathematical and computational framework, namely Log-HilbertSchmidt metric, that generalizes the Log-Euclidean metric between SPD matrices to the infinitedimensional setting. Empirically, on the task of image classification, where each image is represented by an infinite-dimensional RKHS covariance operator, the Log-HS framework substantially outperforms other approaches based on covariance matrices computed directly on the original input features. Given the widespread use of covariance matrices, we believe that the Log-HS framework can be potentially useful for many problems in machine learning, computer vision, and other applications. 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Robust Classi?cation Under Sample Selection Bias Anqi Liu Department of Computer Science University of Illinois at Chicago Chicago, IL 60607 aliu33@uic.edu Brian D. Ziebart Department of Computer Science University of Illinois at Chicago Chicago, IL 60607 bziebart@uic.edu Abstract In many important machine learning applications, the source distribution used to estimate a probabilistic classi?er differs from the target distribution on which the classi?er will be used to make predictions. Due to its asymptotic properties, sample reweighted empirical loss minimization is a commonly employed technique to deal with this difference. However, given ?nite amounts of labeled source data, this technique suffers from signi?cant estimation errors in settings with large sample selection bias. We develop a framework for learning a robust bias-aware (RBA) probabilistic classi?er that adapts to different sample selection biases using a minimax estimation formulation. Our approach requires only accurate estimates of statistics under the source distribution and is otherwise as robust as possible to unknown properties of the conditional label distribution, except when explicit generalization assumptions are incorporated. We demonstrate the behavior and effectiveness of our approach on binary classi?cation tasks. 1 Introduction The goal of supervised machine learning is to use available source data to make predictions with the smallest possible error (loss) on unlabeled target data. The vast majority of supervised learning techniques assume that source (training) data and target (testing) data are drawn from the same distribution over pairs of example inputs and labels, P (x, y), from which the conditional label distribution, P (y|x), is estimated as P? (y|x). In other words, data is assumed to be independent and identically distributed (IID). For many machine learning applications, this assumption is not valid; e.g., survey response rates may vary by individuals? characteristics, medical results may only be available from a non-representative demographic sample, or dataset labels may have been solicited using active learning. These examples correspond to the covariate shift [1] or missing at random [2] setting where the source dataset distribution for training a classi?er and the target dataset distribution on which the classi?er is to be evaluated depend on the example input values, x, but not the labels, y [1]. Despite the source data distribution, P (y|x)Psrc (x), and the target data distribution, P (y|x)Ptrg (x), sharing a common conditional label probability distribution, P (y|x), all (probabilistic) classi?ers, P? (y|x), are vulnerable to sample selection bias when the target data and the inductive bias of the classi?er trained from source data samples, P?src (x)P? (y|x), do not match [3]. We propose a novel approach to classi?cation that embraces the uncertainty resulting from sample selection bias by producing predictions that are explicitly robust to it. Our approach, based on minimax robust estimation [4, 5], departs from the traditional statistics perspective by prescribing (rather than assuming) a parametric distribution that, apart from matching known distribution statistics, is the worst-case distribution possible for a given loss function. We use this approach to derive the robust bias-aware (RBA) probabilistic classi?er. It robustly minimizes the logarithmic loss (logloss) of the target prediction task subject to known properties of data from the source distribution. The parameters of the classi?er are optimized via convex optimization to match statistical properties 1 measured from the source distribution. These statistics can be measured without the inaccuracies introduced from estimating their relevance to the target distribution [1]. Our formulation requires any assumptions of statistical properties generalizing beyond the source distribution to be explicitly incorporated into the classi?er?s construction. We show that the prevalent importance weighting approach to covariate shift [1], which minimizes a sample reweighted logloss, is a special case of our approach for a particularly strong assumption: that source statistics fully generalize to the target distribution. We apply our robust classi?cation approach on synthetic and UCI binary classi?cation datasets [6] to compare its performance against sample reweighted approaches for learning under sample selection bias. 2 Background and Related Work Under the classical statistics perspective, a parametric model for the conditional label distribution, denoted P?? (y|x), is ?rst chosen (e.g., the logistic regression model), and then model parameters are estimated to minimize prediction loss on target data. When source and target data are drawn from the same distribution, minimizing loss on samples of source data, P?src (x)P? (y|x), argmin E ? [loss(P?? (Y |X), Y )], (1) ? ? Psrc (x)P (y|x) ef?ciently converges to the target distribution (Ptrg (x)P (y|x)) loss minimizer. Unfortunately, minimizing the sample loss (1) when source and target distributions differ does not converge to the target loss minimizer. A preferred approach for dealing with this discrepancy is to use importance weighting to estimate the prediction loss under the target distribution by reweighting the source samples according to the target-source density ratio, Ptrg (x)/Psrc (x) [1, 7]. We call this approach sample reweighted loss minimization, or the sample reweighted approach for short in our discussion in this paper. Machine learning research has primarily investigated sample selection bias from this perspective, with various techniques for estimating the density ratio including kernel density estimation [1], discriminative estimation [8], Kullback-Leibler importance estimation [9], kernel mean matching [10, 11], maximum entropy methods [12], and minimax optimization [13]. Despite asymptotic guarantees of minimizing target distribution loss [1] (assuming Ptrg (x) > 0 =? Psrc (x) > 0), ? ? Ptrg (X) ? ? loss(P? (Y |X), Y ) , (2) EPtrg (x)P (y|x) [loss(P? (Y |X), Y )] = lim EP? (n) (x)P? (y|x) src n?? Psrc (X) ?? ? ? sample reweighting is often extremely inaccuSample reweighted objective function rate for ?nite sample datasets, P?src (x), when Dataset #1 Dataset #2 sample selection bias is large [14]. The reweighted loss (2) will often be dominated by a small number of datapoints with large importance weights (Figure 1). Minimizing loss primarily on these datapoints often leads to target predictions with overly optimistic con?dence. Additionally, the speci?c datapoints with large importance weights vary greatly between random source samples, often leading to high variance model estimates. Formal theo- Figure 1: Datapoints (with ?+? and ?o? labels) retical limitations match these described short- from two source distributions (Gaussians with comings; generalization bounds on learning solid 95% con?dence ovals) and the largest data under sample selection bias using importance point importance weights, P (x)/P (x), untrg src weighting have only been established when the der the target distributions (Gaussian with dashed ?rst moment of sampled importance weights is 95% con?dence ovals). bounded, EPtrg (x) [Ptrg (X)/Psrc (X)] < ? [14], which imposes strong restrictions on the source and target distributions. For example, neither pair of distributions in Figure 1 satis?es this bound because the target distribution has ?fatter tails? than the source distribution in some or all directions. Though developed using similar tools, previous minimax formulations of learning under sample selection bias [15, 13] differ substantially from our approach. They consider the target distribution as being unknown and provide robustness to its worst-case assignment. The class of target distributions considered are those obtained by deleting a subset of measured statistics [15] or all possible 2 reweightings of the sample source data [13]. Our approach, in contrast, obtains an estimate for each given target distribution that is robust to all the conditional label distributions matching source statistics. While having an exact or well-estimated target distribution a priori may not be possible for some applications, large amounts of unlabeled data enable this in many batch learning settings. A wide range of approaches for learning under sample selection bias and transfer learning leverage additional assumptions or knowledge to improve predictions [16]. For example, a simple, but effective approach to domain adaptation [17] leverages some labeled target data to learn some relationships that generalize across source and target datasets. Another recent method assumes that source and target data are generated from mixtures of ?domains? and uses a learned mixture model to make predictions of target data based on more similar source data [18]. 3 Robust Bias-Aware Approach We propose a novel approach for learning under sample selection bias that embraces the uncertainty inherent from shifted data by making predictions that are explicitly robust to it. This section mathematically formulates this motivating idea. 3.1 Minimax robust estimation formulation Minimax robust estimation [4, 5] advocates for the worst case to be assumed about any unknown characteristics of a probability distribution. This provides a strong rationale for maximum entropy estimation methods [19] from which many familiar exponential family distributions (e.g., Gaussian, exponential, Laplacian, logistic regression, conditional random ?elds [20]) result by robustly minimizing logloss subject to constraints incorporating various known statistics [21]. Probabilistic classi?cation performance is measured by the conditional logloss (the negative conditional likelihood), loglossPtrg (X) (P (Y |X), P? (Y |X)) ? EPtrg (x)P (y|x) [? log P (Y |X)], of the estimator, P? (Y |X), under an evaluation distribution (i.e., the target distribution, Ptrg (X)P (Y |X), for the sample selection bias setting). We assume that a set of statistics, denoted as convex set ?, characterize the source distribution, Psrc (x, y). Using this loss function, De?nition 1 forms a robust minimax estimate [4, 5] of the conditional label distribution, P? (Y |X), using a worst-case conditional label distribution, P? (Y |X). De?nition 1. The robust bias-aware (RBA) probabilistic classi?er is the saddle point solution of: ? ? (3) max loglossPtrg (X) P? (Y |X), P? (Y |X) , min P? (Y |X)?? P? (Y |X)?? ? ? where ? is the conditional probability simplex: ?x ? X , y ? Y : P (y|x) ? 0; ? y ? ?Y P (y ? |x) = 1. This formulation can be interpreted as a two-player game [5] in which the estimator player ?rst chooses P? (Y |X) to minimize the conditional logloss and then the evaluation player chooses distribution P? (Y |X) from the set of statistic-matching conditional label distributions to maximize conditional logloss. This minimax game reduces to a maximum conditional entropy [19] problem: Theorem 1 ([5]). Assuming ? is a set of moment-matching constraints, EPsrc (x)P? (y|x) [f (X, Y )] = c ? EPsrc (x)P (y|x) [f (X, Y )], the solution of the minimax logloss game (3) maximizes the target distribution conditional entropy subject to matching statistics on the source distribution: max P? (Y |X)?? HPtrg (x),P? (y|x) (Y |X) such that: EPsrc (x)P? (y|x) [f (X, Y )] = c. (4) Conceptually, the solution to this optimization (4) has low certainty where the target density is high by matching the source distribution statistics primarily where the target density is low. 3.2 Parametric form of the RBA classi?er Using tools from convex optimization [22], the solution to the dual of our constrained optimization problem (4) has a parametric form (Theorem 2) with Lagrange multiplier parameters, ?, weighing 3 Logistic regression Reweighted Robust bias-aware Figure 2: Probabilistic predictions from logistic regression, sample reweighted logloss minimization, and robust bias-aware models (?4.1) given labeled data (?+? and ?o? classes) sampled from the source distribution (solid oval indicating Gaussian covariance) and a target distribution (dashed oval Gaussian covariance) for ?rst-order moment statistics (i.e., f (x, y) = [y yx1 yx2 ]T ). the feature functions, f (x, y), that constrain the conditional label distribution estimate (4) (derivation in Appendix A). The density ratio, Psrc (x)/Ptrg (x), scales the distribution?s prediction certainty to increase when the ratio is large and decrease when it is small. Theorem 2. The robust bias-aware (RBA) classi?er for target distribution Ptrg (x) estimated from statistics of source distribution Psrc (x) has a form: Psrc (x) ??f (x,y) e Ptrg (x) , P?? (y|x) = ? Psrc (x) ??f (x,y ? ) Ptrg (x) e ? y ?Y (5) which is parameterized by Lagrange multipliers ?. The Lagrangian dual optimization problem selects these parameters to maximize the target distribution log likelihood: max? EPtrg (x)P (y|x) [log P?? (Y |X)]. Unlike the sample reweighting approach, our approach does not require that target distribution support implies source distribution support (i.e., Ptrg (x) > 0 =? Psrc (x) > 0 is not required). Where target support vanishes (i.e., Ptrg (x) ? 0), the classi?er?s prediction is extremely certain, and where source support vanishes (i.e., Psrc (x) = 0), the classi?er?s prediction is a uniform distribution. The critical difference in addressing sample selection bias is illustrated in Figure 2. Logistic regression and sample reweighted loss minimization (2) extrapolate in the face of uncertainty to make strong predictions without suf?cient supporting evidence, while the RBA approach is robust to uncertainty that is inherent when learning from ?nite shifted data samples. In this example, prediction uncertainty is large at all tail fringes of the source distribution for the robust approach. In contrast, there is a high degree of certainty for both the logistic regression and sample reweighted approaches in portions of those regions (e.g., the bottom left and top right). This is due to the strong inductive biases of those approaches being applied to portions of the input space where there is sparse evidence to support them. The conceptual argument against this strong inductive generalization is that the labels of datapoints in these tail fringe regions could take either value and negligibly affect the source distribution statistics. Given this ambiguity, the robust approach suggests much more agnostic predictions. The choice of statistics, f (x, y) (also known as features), employed in the model plays a much different role in the RBA approach than in traditional IID learning methods. Rather than determining the manner in which the model generalizes, as in logistic regression, features should be chosen that prevent the robust model from ?pushing? all of its certainty away from the target distribution. This is illustrated in Figure 3. With only ?rst moment constraints, the predictions in the denser portions of the target distribution have fairly high uncertainty under the RBA method. The larger number of constraints enforced by the second-order mixed moment statistics preserve more of the original distribution using the RBA predictions, leading to higher certainty in those target regions. 4 Reweighted Robust bias-aware Second moment First moment Logistic regression Figure 3: The prediction setting of Figure 2 with partially overlapping source and target densities for ?rst-order (top) and second-order (bottom) mixed-moments statistics (i.e., f (x, y) = [y yx1 yx2 yx21 yx1 x2 yx22 ]T ). Logistic regression and the sample reweighted approach make high-certainty predictions in portions of the input space that have high target density. These predictions are made despite the sparseness of sampled source data in those regions (e.g., the upper-right portion of the target distribution). In contrast, the robust approach ?pushes? its more certain predictions to areas where the target density is less. 3.3 Regularization and parameter estimation In practice, the characteristics of the source distribution, ?, are not precisely known. Instead, em? ? EP?src (x)P? (y|x) [f (X, Y )], are available, but pirical estimates for moment-matching constraints, c are prone to sampling error. When the constraints of (4) are relaxed using various convex norms, ||? c ? EP?src (x)P? (y|x) [f (X, Y )]|| ? ?, the RBA classi?er is obtained by ?1 - or ?2 -regularized maximum conditional likelihood estimation (Theorem 2) of the dual optimization problem [23, 24], ? ? ? = argmax EPtrg (x)P (y|x) log P?? (Y |X) ? ? ||?|| . (6) ? The regularization parameters in this approach can be chosen using straight-forward bounds on ?nite sampling error [24]. In contrast, the sample reweighted approach to learning under sample selection bias [1, 7] also makes use of regularization [9], but appropriate regularization parameters for it must be haphazardly chosen based on how well the source samples represent the target data. Maximizing this regularized target conditional likelihood (6) appears dif?cult because target data from Ptrg (x)P (y|x) is unavailable. We avoid the sample reweighted approach (2) [1, 7], due to its inaccuracies when facing distributions with large differences in bias given ?nite samples. Instead, we use the gradient of the regularized target conditional likelihood and only rely on source samples adequately approximating the source distribution statistics (a standard assumption for IID learning): ? ? EP?src (x)P? (y|x) [f (X, Y )]. ?? EPtrg (x)P (y|x) [log P?? (Y |X)] = c (7) Algorithm 1 is a batch gradient algorithm for parameter estimation under our model. It does not require objective function calculations and converges to a global optimum due to convexity [22]. 5 Algorithm 1 Batch gradient for robust bias-aware classi?er learning. Input: Dataset {(xi , yi )}, source density Psrc (x), target density Ptrg (x), feature function f (x, y), ?, (decaying) learning rate {?t }, regularizer ?, convergence threshold ? measured statistics c Output: Model parameters ? ??0 repeat (x) ?(xi , y) ? PPsrc ? ? f (xi , y) for all: dataset examples i, labels y trg (x) ?(xi ,y) P? (Yi = y|xi ) ? ? e e?(xi ,y? ) for all: dataset examples i, labels y y? ? ? ? ? ? N1 N ?L ? c y?Y P (Yi = y|xi ) f (xi , y) i=1 ? ? ? + ?t (?L + ??? ||?||) until ||??? ||?|| + ?L|| ? ? return ? 3.4 Incorporating expert knowledge and generalizing the reweighted approach In many settings, expert knowledge may be available to construct the constraint set ? instead of, or ? ? EP?src (x)P? (y|x) [f (X, Y )] estimated from source data. Expert-provided in addition to, statistics c ? source distributions, feature functions, and constraint statistic values, respectfully denoted Psrc (x), f ? (x, y), and c? , can be speci?ed to express a range of assumptions about the conditional label distribution and how it generalizes. Theorem 3 establishes that for empirically-based constraints ?? ? EP?src (x)P? (y|x) [(Ptrg (X)/Psrc (X))f (X, Y )], provided by the expert, EPtrg (x)P? (y|x) [f (X, Y )] = c ? (x) ? Ptrg (x), corresponding to strong source-to-target feature generalization assumptions, Psrc reweighted logloss minimization is a special case of our robust bias-aware approach. Theorem 3. When direct feature generalization of reweighting source samples to the tar?? ? get distribution is assumed, the constraints become EPtrg (x)P? (y|x) [f (X, Y )] = c ? ? Ptrg (X) EP?src (x)P? (y|x) Psrc (X) f (X, Y ) and the RBA classi?er minimizes sample reweighted logloss (2). This equivalence suggests that if there is expert knowledge that reweighted source statistics are representative of the target distribution, then these strong generalization assumptions should be included as constraints in the RBA predictor and results in the sample reweighted approach1 . Figure 4: The robust estimation setting of Figure 3 (bottom, right) with assumed Gaussian feature distribution generalization (dashed-dotted oval) incorporated into the density ratio. Three increasingly broad generalization distributions lead to reduced target prediction uncertainty. Weaker expert knowledge can also be incorporated. Figure 4 shows various assumptions of how widely sample reweighted statistics are representative across the input space. As the generalization assumptions are made to align more closely with the target distribution (Figure 4), the regions of uncertainty shrink substantially. 1 Similar to the previous section, relaxed constraints ||? c? ? EP?src (x)P? (y|x) [f (X, Y )]|| ? ?, are employed in practice and parameters are obtained by maximizing the regularized conditional likelihood as in (6). 6 4 4.1 Experiments and Comparisons Comparative approaches and implementation details We compare three approaches for learning classi?ers from biased sample source data: (a) source logistic regression maximizes conditional likelihood on the source data, max? EP?src (x)P? (y|x) [log P? (Y |X) ? ?||?||]; (b) sample reweighted target logistic regression minimizes the conditional likelihood of source data reweighted to the target distribution (2), max? EP?src (x)P? (y|x) [(Ptrg (x)/Psrc (x)) log P? (Y |X) ? ?||?||]; and robust bias-aware classi?cation robustly minimizes target distribution logloss (5) trained using direct gradient calculations (7). As statistics/features for these approaches, we consider nth order uni-input moments, e.g., yx1 , yx22 , yxn3 , . . ., and mixed moments, e.g., yx1 , yx1 x2 , yx23 x5 x6 , . . .. We employ the CVX package [25] to estimate parameters of the ?rst two approaches and batch gradient ascent (Algorithm 1) for our robust approach. 4.2 Empirical performance evaluations and comparisons We empirically compare the predictive performance of the three approaches. We consider four classi?cation datasets, selected from the UCI repository [6] based on the criteria that each contains roughly 1,000 or more examples, has discretely-valued inputs, and has minimal missing values. We reduce multi-class prediction tasks into binary prediction tasks by combining labels into two groups based on the plurality class, as described in Table 1. Table 1: Datasets for empirical evaluation Dataset Features Examples Negative labels Positive labels Mushroom 22 8,124 Edible Poisonous Car 6 1,728 Not acceptable all others Tic-tac-toe 9 958 ?X? does not win ?X? wins Nursery 8 12,960 Not recommended all others We generate biased subsets of these classi?cation datasets to use as source samples and unbiased subsets to use as target samples. We create source data bias by sampling a random likelihood function from a Dirichlet distribution and then sample source data without replacement in proportion to each datapoint?s likelihood. We stress the inherent dif?culties of the prediction task that results; label imbalance in the source samples is common, despite sampling independently from the example label (given input values) due to source samples being drawn from focused portions of the input space. We combine the likelihood function and statistics from each sample to form na??ve source and target distribution estimates. The complete details are described in Appendix C, including bounds imposed on the source-target ratios to limit the effects of inaccuracies from the source and target distribution estimates. We evaluate the source logistic regression model, the reweighted maximum likelihood model, and our bias-adaptive robust approach. For each, we use ?rst-order and second-order non-mixed statistics: x21 y, x22 y, . . . , x2K y, x1 y, x2 y, . . . , xK y. For each dataset, we evaluate target distribution logloss, EP?trg (x)P? (y|x) [? log P? (Y |X)], averaged over 50 random biased source and unbiased target samples. We employ log2 for our loss, which conveniently provides a baseline logloss of 1 for a uniform distribution. We note that with exceedingly large regularization, all parameters will be driven to zero, enabling each approach to achieve this baseline level of logloss. Unfortunately, since target labels are assumed not to be available in this problem, obtaining optimal regularization via crossvalidation is not possible. After trying a range of ?2 -regularization weights (Appendix C), we ?nd that heavy ?2 -regularization is needed for the logistic regression model and the reweighted model in our experiments. Without this heavy regularization, the logloss is often extremely high. In contrast, heavy regularization for the robust approach is not necessary; we employ only a mild amount of ?2 -regularization corresponding to source statistic estimation error. We show a comparison of individual predictions from the reweighted approach and the robust approach for the Car dataset on the left of Figure 5. The pairs of logloss measures for each of the 50 7 Figure 5: Left: Log-loss comparison for 50 source and target distribution samples between the robust and reweighted approaches for the Car classi?cation task. Right: Average logloss with 95% con?dence intervals for logistic regression, reweighted logistic regression, and bias-adaptive robust target classi?er on four UCI classi?cation tasks. sampled source and target datasets are shown in the scatter plot. For some of the samples, the inductive biases of the reweighted approach provide better predictions (left of the dotted line). However, for many of the samples, the inductive biases do not ?t the target distribution well and this leads to much higher logloss. The average logloss for each approach and dataset is shown on the right of Figure 5. The robust approach provides better performance than the baseline uniform distribution (logloss of 1) with statistical signi?cance for all datasets. For the ?rst three datasets, the other two approaches are signi?cantly worse than this baseline. The con?dence intervals for logistic regression and the reweighted model tend to be signi?cantly larger than the robust approach because of the variability in how well their inductive biases generalize to the target distribution for each sample. However, the robust approach is not a panacea for all sample selection bias problems; the No Free Lunch theorem [26] still applies. We see this with the Nursery dataset, in which the inductive biases of the logistic regression and reweighted approaches do tend to hold across both distributions, providing better predictions. 5 Discussion and Conclusions In this paper, we have developed a novel minimax approach for probabilistic classi?cation under sample selection bias. Our approach provides the parametric distribution (5) that minimizes worstcase logloss (Def. 1), and that can be estimated as a convex optimization problem (Alg. 1). We showed that sample reweighted logloss minimization [1, 7] is a special case of our approach using very strong assumptions about how statistics generalize to the target distribution (Thm. 3). We illustrated the predictions of our approach in two toy settings and how those predictions compare to the more-certain alternative methods. We also demonstrated consistent ?better than uninformed? prediction performance using four UCI classi?cation datasets?three of which prove to be extremely dif?cult for other sample selection bias approaches. We have treated density estimation of the source and target distributions, or estimating their ratios, as an orthogonal problem in this work. However, we believe many of the density estimation and density ratio estimation methods developed for sample reweighted logloss minimization [1, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13] will prove to be bene?cial in our bias-adaptive robust approach as well. We additionally plan to investigate the use of other loss functions and extensions to other prediction problems using our robust approach to sample selection bias. Acknowledgments This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. #1227495, Purposeful Prediction: Co-robot Interaction via Understanding Intent and Goals. 8 References [1] Hidetoshi Shimodaira. Improving predictive inference under covariate shift by weighting the loglikelihood function. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 90(2):227?244, 2000. [2] Roderick J. A. Little and Donald B. Rubin. Statistical Analysis with Missing Data. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York, NY, USA, 1986. [3] Wei Fan, Ian Davidson, Bianca Zadrozny, and Philip S. Yu. An improved categorization of classi?er?s sensitivity on sample selection bias. In Proc. of the IEEE International Conference on Data Mining, pages 605?608, 2005. [4] Flemming Tops?e. Information theoretical optimization techniques. Kybernetika, 15(1):8?27, 1979. [5] Peter D. Gr?unwald and A. Phillip Dawid. Game theory, maximum entropy, minimum discrepancy, and robust Bayesian decision theory. Annals of Statistics, 32:1367?1433, 2004. [6] Kevin Bache and Moshe Lichman. UCI machine learning repository, 2013. [7] Bianca Zadrozny. Learning and evaluating classi?ers under sample selection bias. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 903?910. ACM, 2004. [8] Steffen Bickel, Michael Br?uckner, and Tobias Scheffer. Discriminative learning under covariate shift. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 10:2137?2155, 2009. [9] Masashi Sugiyama, Shinichi Nakajima, Hisashi Kashima, Paul V. Buenau, and Motoaki Kawanabe. Direct importance estimation with model selection and its application to covariate shift adaptation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, pages 1433?1440, 2008. [10] Jiayuan Huang, Alexander J. Smola, Arthur Gretton, Karsten M. Borgwardt, and Bernhard Schlkopf. Correcting sample selection bias by unlabeled data. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, pages 601?608, 2006. [11] Yaoliang Yu and Csaba Szepesv?ari. Analysis of kernel mean matching under covariate shift. In Proc. of the International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 607?614, 2012. [12] Miroslav Dud??k, Robert E. Schapire, and Steven J. Phillips. Correcting sample selection bias in maximum entropy density estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, pages 323?330, 2005. [13] Junfeng Wen, Chun-Nam Yu, and Russ Greiner. Robust learning under uncertain test distributions: Relating covariate shift to model misspeci?cation. In Proc. of the International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 631?639, 2014. [14] Corinna Cortes, Yishay Mansour, and Mehryar Mohri. Learning bounds for importance weighting. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, pages 442?450, 2010. [15] Amir Globerson, Choon Hui Teo, Alex Smola, and Sam Roweis. An adversarial view of covariate shift and a minimax approach. In Joaquin Qui?nonero-Candela, Mashashi Sugiyama, Anton Schwaighofer, and Neil D. Lawrence, editors, Dataset Shift in Machine Learning, pages 179?198. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, USA, 2009. [16] Sinno Jialin Pan and Qiang Yang. A survey on transfer learning. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, 22(10):1345?1359, 2010. [17] Hal Daum?e III. Frustratingly easy domain adaptation. In Conference of the Association for Computational Linguistics, pages 256?263, 2007. [18] Boqing Gong, Kristen Grauman, and Fei Sha. Reshaping visual datasets for domain adaptation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, pages 1286?1294, 2013. [19] Edwin T. Jaynes. Information theory and statistical mechanics. Physical Review, 106:620?630, 1957. [20] John Lafferty, Andrew McCallum, and Fernando Pereira. Conditional random ?elds: Probabilistic models for segmenting and labeling sequence data. In Proc. of the International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 282?289, 2001. [21] Martin J. Wainwright and Michael I. Jordan. Graphical models, exponential families, and variational inference. Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 1(1-2):1?305, 2008. [22] Stephen Boyd and Lieven Vandenberghe. Convex Optimization. Cambridge University Press, 2004. [23] Miroslav Dud??k and Robert E. Schapire. Maximum entropy distribution estimation with generalized regularization. In Learning Theory, pages 123?138. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2006. [24] Yasemin Altun and Alex Smola. Unifying divergence minimization and statistical inference via convex duality. In Learning Theory, pages 139?153. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2006. [25] Michael Grant and Stephen Boyd. CVX: Matlab software for disciplined convex programming, version 2.1. http://cvxr.com/cvx, March 2014. [26] David H. Wolpert. The lack of a priori distinctions between learning algorithms. Neural Comput., 8(7):1341?1390, 1996. 9
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Tree-structured Gaussian Process Approximations Thang Bui Richard Turner tdb40@cam.ac.uk ret26@cam.ac.uk Computational and Biological Learning Lab, Department of Engineering University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1PZ, UK Abstract Gaussian process regression can be accelerated by constructing a small pseudodataset to summarize the observed data. This idea sits at the heart of many approximation schemes, but such an approach requires the number of pseudo-datapoints to be scaled with the range of the input space if the accuracy of the approximation is to be maintained. This presents problems in time-series settings or in spatial datasets where large numbers of pseudo-datapoints are required since computation typically scales quadratically with the pseudo-dataset size. In this paper we devise an approximation whose complexity grows linearly with the number of pseudo-datapoints. This is achieved by imposing a tree or chain structure on the pseudo-datapoints and calibrating the approximation using a Kullback-Leibler (KL) minimization. Inference and learning can then be performed efficiently using the Gaussian belief propagation algorithm. We demonstrate the validity of our approach on a set of challenging regression tasks including missing data imputation for audio and spatial datasets. We trace out the speed-accuracy trade-off for the new method and show that the frontier dominates those obtained from a large number of existing approximation techniques. 1 Introduction Gaussian Processes (GPs) provide a flexible nonparametric prior over functions which can be used as a probabilistic module in both supervised and unsupervised machine learning problems. The applicability of GPs is, however, severely limited by a burdensome computational complexity. For example, this paper will consider non-linear regression on a dataset of size N for which training scales as O(N 3 ) and prediction as O(N 2 ). This represents a prohibitively large computational cost for many applications. Consequently, a substantial research effort has sought to develop efficient approximation methods that side-step these significant computational demands [1?9]. Many of these approximation methods are based upon an intuitive idea, which is to use a smaller pseudo-dataset of size M  N to summarize the observed dataset, reducing the cost for training and prediction (typically to O(N M 2 ) and O(M 2 )). The methods can be usefully categorized into two non-exclusive classes according to the way in which they arrive at the pseudo-dataset. Indirect posterior approximations employ a modified generative model that is carefully constructed to be calibrated to the original, but for which inference is computationally cheaper. In practice this leads to parametric probabilistic models that inherit some of the GP?s robustness to over-fitting. Direct posterior approximations, on the other hand, cut to the chase and directly calibrate an approximate posterior distribution, chosen to have favourable computational properties, to the true posterior distribution. In other words, the non-parametric model is retained, but the pseudo-datapoints provide a bottleneck at the inference stage, rather than at the modelling stage. Pseudo-datapoint approximations have enabled GPs to be deployed in a far wider range of problems than was previously possible. However, they have a severe limitation which means many challenging datasets still remain far out of their reach. The problem arises from the fact that pseudo-dataset methods are functionally local in the sense that each pseudo-datapoint sculpts out the approximate 1 posterior in a small region of the input space around it [10]. Consequently, when the range of the inputs is large compared to the range of the dependencies in the posterior, many pseudo-datapoints are required to maintain the accuracy of the approximation. In time-series settings [11?13], such as audio denoising and missing data imputation considered later in the paper, this means that the number of pseudo-datapoints must grow with the number of datapoints if restoration accuracy is to be maintained. In other words, M must be scaled with N and so pseudo-datapoint schemes have not reduced the scaling of the computational complexity. In this context, approximation methods built from a series of local GPs are perhaps more appropriate, but they suffer from discontinuities at the boundaries that are problematic in many contexts, in the audio restoration example they lead to audible artifacts. The limitations of pseudo-datapoint approximations are not restricted to the time-series setting. Many datasets in geostatistics, climate science, astronomy and other fields have large, and possibly growing, spatial extent compared to the posterior dependency length. This puts them well out of the reach of all current pseudo-datapoint approximation methods. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new pseudo-datapoint approximation scheme which can be applied to these challenging datasets. Since the need to scale the number of pseudo-datapoints with the range of the inputs appears to be unavoidable, the approach instead focuses on reducing the computational cost of training and inference so that it is truely linear in N . This reduction in computational complexity comes from an indirect posterior approximation method which imposes additional structural restrictions on the pseudo-dataset so that it has a chain or tree structure. The paper is organized as follows: In the next section we will briefly review GP regression together with some well known pseudo-datapoint approximation methods. The tree-structured approximation is then proposed, related to previous methods, and developed in section 2. We demonstrate that this new approximation is able to tractably handle far larger datasets whilst maintaining the accuracy of prediction and learning in section 3. 1.1 Regression using Gaussian Processes This section provides a concise introduction to GP regression [14]. Suppose we have a training set comprising N D-dimensional input vectors {xn }N n=1 and corresponding real valued scalar observations {yn }N n=1 . The GP regression model assumes that each observation yn is formed from an unknown function f (.), evaluated at input xn , which is corrupted by independent Gaussian noise. That is yn = f (xn ) + n where p(n ) = N (n ; 0, ? 2 ). Typically a zero mean GP is used to specify a prior over the function f so that any finite set of function values are distributed under the prior according to a multivariate Gaussian p(f ) = N (f ; 0, Kff ).1 The covariance of this Gaussian is specified by a covariance function or kernel, (Kff )n,n0 = k? (xn , xn0 ), which depends upon a small number of hyper-parameters ?. The form of the covariance function and the values of the hyper-parameters encapsulates prior knowledge about the unknown function. Having specified the probabilistic model, we now consider regression tasks which typically involve predicting the function value f? at some unseen input x? (also known as missing data imputation) or estimating the function value f at a training input xn (also known as denoising). Both of these prediction problems can be handled elegantly in the GP regression framework by noting that the posterior distribution over the function values is another Gaussian process with a mean and covariance function given by mf (x) = Kxf (Kff + ? 2 I)?1 y, kf (x, x0 ) = k(x, x0 ) ? Kxf (Kff + ? 2 I)?1 Kfx0 . (1) Here Kff is the covariance matrix on the training set defined above and Kxf is the covariance function evaluated at pairs of test and training inputs. The hyperparameters ? and the noise variance ? 2 can be learnt by finding a (local) maximum of the marginal likelihood of the parameters, p(y|?, ?) = N (y; 0, Kff + ? 2 I). The origin of the cubic computational cost of GP regression is the need to compute the Cholesky decomposition of the matrix Kff + ? 2 I. Once this step has been performed a subsequent prediction can be made in O(N 2 ). 1.2 Review of Gaussian process approximation methods There are a plethora of methods for accelerating learning and inference in GP regression. Here we provide a brief and inexhaustive survey that focuses on indirect posterior approximation schemes based on pseudo-datasets. These approximations can be understood in terms of a three stage process. In the first stage the generative model is augmented with pseudo-datapoints, that is a set of M pseudo-input points {? x m }M m=1 and (noiseless) pseudo-observations {um }m=1 . In the second stage 1 Here and in what follows, the dependence on the input values x has been suppressed to lighten the notation. 2 some of the dependencies in the model prior distribution are removed so that inference becomes computationally tractable. In the third stage the parameterisation of the new model is chosen in such a way that it is calibrated to the old one. This last stage can seem mysterious, but it can often be usefully understood as a KL divergence minimization between the true and the modified model. Perhaps the simplest example of this general approach is the Fully Independent Training Conditional (FITC) approximation [4] (see table 1). FITC removes direct dependencies between the function values f (see fig. 1) and calibrates the modified prior using the KL divergence KL(p(f , u)||q(f , u)) QN yielding q(f , u) = p(u) n=1 p(fn |u). That this model leads to computational advantages can perhaps most easily be seen by recognising that it is essentially a factor analysis model, with an admittedly clever parameterisation in terms of the covariance function. FITC has since been extended so that the pseudo-datapoints can have a different covariance function to the data [6] and so that some subset of the direct dependencies between the function values f are retained as in the Partially Independent Conditional (PIC) approximation [3,5] which generalizes the Bayesian Committee Machine [15]. There are indirect approximation methods which do not naturally fall into this general scheme. Stationary covariance functions can be approximated using a sum of M cosines which leads to the Sparse Spectrum Gaussian Process (SSGP) [7] which has identical computational cost to FITC. An alternative prior approximation method for stationary covariance functions in the multi-dimensional time-series setting designs a linear Gaussian state space model (LGSSM) so that it approximates the prior power spectrum using a connection to stochastic differential equations (SDEs) [16]. The Kalman smoother can then be used to perform inference and learning in the new representation with a linear complexity. This technique, however, only reduces the computational complexity for the temporal axis and the spatial complexity is still cubic, moreover the extension beyond the timeseries setting requires a second layer of approximations, such as variational free-energy methods [17] which are known to introduce significant biases [18]. In contrast to the methods mentioned above, direct posterior approximation methods do not alter the generative model, but rather seek computational savings through a simplified representation of the posterior distribution. Examples of this type of approach include the Projected Process (PP) method [1, 2] which has been since been interpreted as the expectation step in a variational free energy (VFE) optimisation scheme [8] enabling stochastic versions [19]. Similarly, the Expectation Propagation (EP) framework can also be used to devise posterior approximations with associated hyper-parameter learning scheme [9]. All of these methods employ a pseudo-dataset to parameterize the approximate posterior. Method FITC? PIC? PP VFE EP Tree? KL minimization Q KL(p(f , u)||q(u)Q n q(fn |u)) KL(p(f , u)||q(u) k q(fCk |u)) KL( Z1 p(u)p(f |u)q(y|u)||p(f , u|y)) KL(p(f |u)q(u)||p(f , u|y)) KL(q(f ; u)p(yn |fQ n )/qn (f ; u)||q(f ; u)) KL(p(f , u)|| k q(fCk |uBk )? q(uBk |upar(Bk ) )) Result q(u) = p(u), q(fn |u) = p(fn |u) q(u) = p(u), q(fCk |u) = p(fCk |u) 2 q(y|u) = N (y; Kfu K?1 uu u, ? I) q(u) ? p(u) exp(hlog(p(y|f ))ip(f |u) ) Q q(f ; u) ? p(f ) m p(um |fm ) q(fCk |uBk ) = p(fCk |uBk ) q(uBk |upar(Bk ) ) = p(uBk |upar(Bk ) ) Table 1: GP approximations as KL minimization. Ck and Bk are disjoint subsets of the function values and pseudo-datapoints respectively. Indirect posterior approximations are indicated ?. 1.3 Limitations of current pseudo-dataset approximations There is a conflict at the heart of current pseudo-dataset approximations. Whilst the effect of each pseudo-datapoint is local, the computations involving them are global. The local characteristic means that large numbers of pseudo-datapoints are required to accurately approximate complex posterior distributions. If ld is the range of the dependencies in the posterior in dimension d and Ld is the QD data-range in each dimension then approximation accuracy will be retained when M ' d=1 Ld /ld . Critically, for many applications this condition means that large numbers of pseudo-points are required, such as time series (L1 ? N ) and large spatial datasets (Ld  ld ). Unfortunately, the global graphical structure means that it is computationally costly to handle such large pseudo-datasets. The obvious solution to this conflict is to use the so-called local approximation which splits the observations into disjoint blocks and models each one with a GP. This is a severe approach and this paper 3 u u f1 f2 f3 fn fN f? (a) Full GP u fC1 fC2 fC3 fCk f? fCK f1 f2 f3 uB1 uB2 (b) FITC uB3 uBk fC1 fC2 fC3 (c) PIC fn fCk fN f? uBK f? fCK (d) Tree (chain) Figure 1: Graphical models of the GP model and different prior approximation schemes using pseudo-datapoints. Thick edges indicate full pairwise connections and boldface fonts denote sets of variables. The chain structured version of the new approximation is shown for clarity. proposes a more elegant and accurate alternative that retains more of the graphical structure whilst still enabling local computation. 2 Tree-structured prior approximations In this section we develop an indirect posterior approximation in the same family as FITC and PIC. In order to reduce the computational overhead of these approximations, the global graphical structure is replaced by a local one via two modifications. First, the M pseudo-datapoints are divided into K disjoint blocks of potentially different cardinality {uBk }K k=1 and the blocks are then arranged into a tree. Second, the function values are also divided into K disjoint blocks of potentially different cardinality {fCk }K k=1 and the blocks are assumed to be conditionally independent given the corresponding subset of pseudo-datapoints. The new graphical model is shown in fig. 1d and it can be described mathematically as follows, q(u) = K Y q(uBk |upar(Bk ) ), q(f |u) = k=1 K Y q(fCk |uBk ), p(y|f ) = N Y p(yn ; fn , ? 2 ). (2) n=1 k=1 Here upar(Bk ) denotes the pseudo-datapoints in the parent node of uBk . This is an example of prior approximation as the original likelihood function has been retained. The next step is to calibrate the new approximate model by choosing suitable values for the distributions {q(uBk |upar(Bk ) ), q(fCk |uBk )}K k=1 . Taking an identical approach to that employed by FITC and PIC, we minimize a forward KL divergence between the true model prior and the approximation, Q KL(p(f , u)|| k q(fCk |uBk )q(uBk |upar(Bk ) )) (see table 1). The optimal distributions are found to be the corresponding conditional distributions in the unapproximated augmented model, q(uBk |upar(Bk ) ) = p(uBk |upar(Bk ) ) = N (uBk ; Ak upar(Bk ) , Qk ), q(fCk |uBk ) = p(fCk |uBk ) = N (fCk ; Ck uBk , Rk ). (3) (4) The parameters depend upon the covariance function. Letting uk = uBk , ul = upar(Bk ) and fk = fCk we find that, ?1 Ak = Kuk ul Ku , Qk = Kuk uk ? Kuk ul K?1 ul ul Kul uk , l ul (5) Kfk uk K?1 uk uk Kuk fk . (6) Ck = Kfk uk K?1 uk uk , Rk = K f k f k ? As shown in the graphical model, the local pseudo-data separate test and training latent functions. The marginal posterior distribution of the Rlocal pseudo-data is thenRsufficient to obtain the approximate predictive distribution: p(f? |y) = duBk p(f? , uBk |y) = duBk p(f? |uBk )p(uBk |y). In other words, once inference has been performed, prediction is local and therefore fast. The important question of how to assign test and training points to blocks is discussed in the next section. We note that the tree-based prior approximation includes as special cases; the full GP, PIC, FITC, the local method and local versions of PIC and FITC (see table 1 in the supplementary material). Importantly, in a time-series setting the blocks can be organized into a chain and the approximate model becomes a LGSSM. This provides an new method for approximating GPs using LGSSMs in which the state is a set pseudo-observations, rather than for instance, the derivatives of function values at the input locations [16]. 4 Exact inference in this approximate model proceeds efficiently using the up-down algorithm for Gaussian Beliefs (see [20, Ch. 14]). The inference scheme has the same complexity as forming the model, O(KD3 ) ? O(N D2 ) (where D is the average number of observations per block). 2.1 Inference and learning Selecting the pseudo-inputs and constructing the tree First we consider the method for dividing the observed data into blocks and selecting the pseudo-inputs. Typically, the block sizes will be chosen to be fairly small in order to accelerate learning and inference. For data which are on a grid, such as regularly sampled time-series considered later in the paper, it may be simplest to use regular blocks. An alternative, which might be more appropriate for non-regularly sampled data, is to use a k-means algorithm with the Euclidean distance score. Having blocked the observations, a random subset of the data in each block are chosen to set the pseudo-inputs. Whilst it would be possible in principle to optimize the locations of the pseudo-inputs, in practice the new approach can tractably handle a very large number of pseudo-datapoints (e.g. M ? N ), and so optimisation is less critical than for previous approaches. Once the blocks are formed, they are fixed during hyperparameter training and prediction. Second, we consider how to construct the tree. The pair-wise distances between the cluster centers are used to define the weights between candidate edges in a graph. Kruskal?s algorithm uses this information to construct an acyclic graph. The algorithm starts with a fully disconnected graph and recursively adds the edge with the smallest weight that does not introduce loops. A tree is randomly formed from this acyclic subgraph by choosing one node to be the root. This choice is arbitrary and does not affect the results of inference. The parameters of the model {Ak , Qk , Ck , Rk }K k=1 (state transitions and noise) are computed by traversing down the tree from the root to the leaves. These matrices must be recomputed at each step during learning. Inference It is straightforward to marginalize out the latent functions f in the graphical model in which case the effective local likelihood becomes p(yk |uk ) = N (yk ; Ck uk , Rk +? 2 I). The model can be recognized from the graphical model as a tree-structured Gaussian model with latent variables u and observations y. As is shown in the supplementary, the posterior distribution can be found by using the Gaussian belief propagation algorithm (for more see [20]). The passing of messages can be scheduled so the marginals can be found after two passes (asynchronous scheduling: upwards from leaves to root and then downwards). For chain structures inference can be performed using the Kalman smoother at the same cost. Hyperparameter learning The marginal likelihood can be efficiently computed by the same beQK lief propagation algorithms due to its recursive form, p(y1:K |?) = k=1 p(yk |y1:k?1 , ?). The derivatives can also be tractably computed as they involve only local moments:  K  X d d d log p(y|?) = h log p(uk |ul )ip(uk ,ul |y) + h log p(yk |uk )ip(uk |y) . (7) d? d? d? k=1 For concreteness, the explicit form of the marginal likelihood and its derivative are included in the supplementary material. We obtain point estimates of the hyperparameters by finding a (local) maximum of the marginal likelihood using the BFGS algorithm. 3 Experiments We test the new approximation method on three challenging real-world prediction tasks2 via a speedaccuracy trade-off as recommended in [21]. Following that work, we did not investigate the effects of pseudo-input optimisation. We used different datasets that had less limited spatial/temporal extent. Experiment 1: Audio sub-band data (exponentiated quadratic kernel) In the first experiment we consider imputation of missing data in a sub-band of a speech signal. The speech signal was taken from the TIMIT database (see fig. 4), a short time Fourier transform was applied (20ms Gaussian window), and the real part of the 152Hz channel selected for the experiments. The signal was T = 50000 samples long and 25 sections of length 80 samples were removed. An exponentiated quadratic kernel, k? (t, t0 ) = ? 2 exp(? 2l12 (t ? t0 )2 ), was used for prediction. We compare the chain 2 Synthetic data experiments can be found in the supplementary material. 5 structured pseudo-datapoint approximation to FITC, VFE, SSGP, local versions of PIC (corresponding to setting Ak = 0, Qk = Kuk uk in the tree-structured approximation) and the SDE method.3 Only 20000 datapoints were used for the SDE method due to the long run times. The size of the pseudo-dataset and the number of blocks in the chain and local approximations, and the order of approximation in SDE were varied to trace out speed-accuracy frontiers. Accuracy of the imputation was quantified using the standardized mean squared errors (SMSEs) (for other metrics, see the supplementary material). Hyperparameter learning proceeded until a convergence criteria or a maximum number of function evaluations was reached. Learning and prediction (imputation) times were recorded. We found that the chain structured method outperforms all of the other methods (see fig. 2). For example, for a fixed training time of 100s, the best performing chain provided a three-fold increase in accuracy over the local method which was the next best. A typical imputation is shown in fig. 4 (left hand side). The chain structured method was able to accurately impute the missing data whilst that the local method is less accurate and more uncertain as information is not propagated between the blocks. 1 0.5 16 16 32 32 0.2 SMSE 0.1 2,20 2,10 2,8 32 5,50 512 64 1024 64 128 1024 128 128 256 1500 1024 20,80 512 5121 1500 1500 2,40 20,200 2 2,20 20,500 2,50 2,10 5,100 3 2,8 20,400 5,125 4 10,250 5 20,500 0.01 10,200 6 7 8 10 5,50 5,25 5,20 20,80 10,100 10,50 10 100 Chain Local 1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.01 FITC VFE SSGP SDE 1000 (b) SMSE (a) 10000 5,20 16 16 32 2,8 64 64 16 512 10,50 32 64 256 256 1024 1024 128 1500 128 512 1500 1500 20,80 20,200 10,250 2 2,50 2,20 2,8 3 5,100 20,400 4 5,125 10,250 5 6 20,500 7 8 10,200 10 5,50 5,20 20,400 10,100 10,40 10,50 0.1 Training time/s 1 10 Test time/s Figure 2: Experiment 1. Audio sub-band reconstruction error as a function of training time (a) and test time (b) for different approximations. The numerical labels for the chain and local methods are the number of pseudo-datapoints per block and the number of observations per block respectively, and for the SDE method are the order of approximation. For the other methods they are the size of the pseudo-dataset. Faster and more accurate approximations are located towards the bottom left hand corners of the plots. Experiment 2: Audio filter data (spectral mixture) The second experiment tested the performance of the chain based approximation when more complex kernels are employed. We filtered the same speech signal using a 152Hz filter with a 50Hz bandwidth, producing a signal of length T = 50000 samples from which missing sections of length 150 samples were removed. Since the complete signal had a complex bandpass spectrum we used a spectral mixture kernel containing two P2 components [22], k? (t, t0 ) = k=1 ?k2 cos(?k (t ? t0 )) exp(? 2l12 (t ? t0 )2 ). We compared a chain k based approximation to FITC, VFE and the local PIC method finding it to be substantially more accurate than both methods (see fig. 3 for SMSE results and the right hand side of fig. 4 for a typical example). Results with more components showed identical trends (see supplementary material). Experiment 3: Terrain data (two dimensional input space, exponentiated quadratic kernel) In the final experiment we tested the tree based appoximation using a spatial dataset in which terrain altitude was measured as a function of geographical position.4 We considered a 20km by 30km region (400?600 datapoints) and tested prediction on 80 randomly positioned missing blocks of size 1km by 1km (20x20 datapoints). In total, this translates into about 200k/40k training/test points. We used an exponentiated quadratic kernel with different length-scales in the two input dimensions, comparing a tree-based approximation, which was constructed as described in section 2.1, to the 3 Code is available at http://www.gaussianprocess.org/gpml/code/matlab/doc/ [FITC], http://www.tsc.uc3m.es/?miguel/downloads.php [SSGP], http://becs.aalto.fi/en/research/ bayes/gpstuff/ [SDE] and http://mlg.eng.cam.ac.uk/thang/ [Tree+VFE]. 4 Dataset is available at http://data.gov.uk/dataset/os-terrain-50-dtm. 6 (a) 0.5 1 0.5 64 128 5,25 512 1024 1500 512 32 64 128 2,40 1500 256 10,50 2,50 20,80 20,200 SMSE 0.1 32 5,100 20,200 5,125 20,500 20,400 0.2 16 20,100 5,100 SMSE (b) 64 64 128 2,10 16 1024 1500 512 16 32 512 1024 1500 10,40 256 256 5,50 2,50 20,80 1 2,40 2,50 10,40 20,400 5,50 5,20 5,100 5,125 2,8 5,125 0.2 20,500 20,400 0.1 2,40 2,50 10,50 10,40 5,50 20,500 20,80 5,20 5,125 2,8 Chain Local FITC VFE 0.02 0.02 10 100 1000 10000 0.1 Training time/s 1 10 Test time/s (a) 2 yt Figure 3: Experiment 2. Filtered audio signal reconstruction error as a function of training time (a) and test time (b) for different approximations. See caption of fig. 2 for full details. 0 (b) yt 2 0 ?2 True Chain Local yt yt ?2 2 0 2 0 ?2 ?2 2340 2350 2360 2370 2380 5030 Time/ms 5040 5050 5060 5070 5080 Time/ms Figure 4: Missing data imputation for experiment 1 (audio sub-band data, (a)) and experiment 2 (filtered audio data, (b)). Imputation using the chain-structured approximation (top) is more accurate and less uncertain than the predictions obtained from the local method (bottom). Blocks consisted of 5 pseudo-datapoints and 50 observations respectively. pseudo-point approximation methods considered in the first experiment. Figure 5 shows the speedaccuracy trade-off for the various approximation methods at the test and training stages. We found that the global approximation techniques such as FITC or SSGP could not tractably handle a sufficient number of pseudo-datapoints to support accurate imputation. The local variant of our method outperformed the other techniques, but compared poorly to the tree. Typical reconstructions from the tree, local and FITC approximations are shown in fig. 6. Summary of experimental results The speed-accuracy frontier for the new approximation scheme dominates those produced by the other methods over a wide range for each of the three datasets. Similar results were found for additional datasets (see supplementary material). It is perhaps not surprising that the tree approximation performs so favourably. Consider the rule-of-thumb estimate for the number of pseudo-datapoints required. Using the length-scales ld learned by the tree-approximation as a proxy for the posterior dependency length the estimated pseudo-dataset size Q required for the three datasets is M ' d Ld /ld ? {1400, 1000, 5000}. This is at the upper end of what can be tractably handled using standard approximations. Moreover, these approximation schemes can be made arbitrarily poor by expanding the region further. The most accurate treestructured approximation for the three datasets used {2500, 10000, 20000} datapoints respectively. The local PIC method performs more favourably than the standard approximations and is generally faster than the tree since it involves a single pass through the dataset and simpler matrix computations. However, blocking the data into independent chunks results in artifacts at the block boundaries which reduces the approximation?s accuracy significantly when compared to the tree (e.g. if they happen to coincide with a missing region). 7 (a) (b) 0.4 64 64 0.4 64 1024 128 64 4,240 128 256 256 5,300 256 8,240 10,300 15,300 512 512 5,300 VFE 4,240 1024 128 0.1 FITC SSGP Tree Local 0.2 128 SMSE SMSE 0.2 512 1024 256 4,240 256 256 5,300 8,240 512 512 15,300 25,300 512 4,240 0.1 15,300 10,300 25,300 8,240 0.05 1024 64 128 128 64 1024 8,240 15,300 10,300 25,300 5 10 1024 0.05 50 100 1000 10000 0.5 Training time/s 1 20 Test time/ms Figure 5: Experiment 3. Terrain data reconstruction. SMSE as a function of training time (a) and test time (b). See caption of fig. 2 for full details. 3km 0 (a) 0 (b) graph 3km 250m 50m complete data 250m (c) tree inference error 0 local inference error -150m FITC inference error Figure 6: Experiment 3. Terrain data reconstruction. The blocks in this region input space are organized into a tree-structure (a) with missing regions shown by the black squares. The complete terrain altitude data for the region (b). Prediction errors from three methods (c). 4 Conclusion This paper has presented a new pseudo-datapoint approximation scheme for Gaussian process regression problems which imposes a tree or chain structure on the pseudo-dataset that is calibrated using a KL divergence. Inference and learning in the resulting approximate model proceeds efficiently via Gaussian belief propagation. The computational cost of the approximation is linear in the pseudo-dataset size, improving upon the quadratic scaling of typical approaches, and opening the door to more challenging datasets than have previously been considered. Importantly, the method does not require the input data or the covariance function to have special structure (stationarity, regular sampling, time-series settings etc. are not a requirement). We showed that the approximation obtained a superior performance in both predictive accuracy and runtime complexity on challenging regression tasks which included audio missing data imputation and spatial terrain prediction. There are several directions for future work. First, the new approximation scheme should be tested on datasets that have higher dimensional input spaces since it is not clear how well the approximation will generalize to this setting. Second, the tree structure naturally leads to (possibly distributed) online stochastic inference procedures in which gradients computed at a local block, or a collection of local blocks, are used to update hyperparameters directly, as opposed waiting for a full pass up and down the tree. Third, the tree structure used for prediction can be decoupled from the tree structure used for training, whilst still employing the same pseudo-datapoints potentially improving prediction. Acknowledgements We would like to thank the EPSRC (grant numbers EP/G050821/1 and EP/L000776/1) and Google for funding. 8 References [1] M. Seeger, C. K. I. Williams, and N. D. Lawrence, ?Fast forward selection to speed up sparse Gaussian process regression,? in International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, 2003. [2] M. Seeger, Bayesian Gaussian process models: PAC-Bayesian generalisation error bounds and sparse approximations. PhD thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2003. [3] J. Qui?nonero-Candela and C. E. Rasmussen, ?A unifying view of sparse approximate Gaussian process regression,? The Journal of Machine Learning Research, vol. 6, pp. 1939?1959, 2005. [4] E. Snelson and Z. Ghahramani, ?Sparse Gaussian processes using pseudo-inputs,? in Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 19, pp. 1257?1264, MIT press, 2006. [5] E. Snelson and Z. 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Interpretation of Artificial Neural Networks: Mapping Knowledge-Based Neural Networks into Rules Geoffrey Towell Jude W. Shavlik Computer Sciences Department U ni versity of Wisconsin Madison, WI 53706 Abstract We propose and empirically evaluate a method for the extraction of expertcomprehensible rules from trained neural networks. Our method operates in the context of a three-step process for learning that uses rule-based domain knowledge in combination with neural networks. Empirical tests using realworlds problems from molecular biology show that the rules our method extracts from trained neural networks: closely reproduce the accuracy of the network from which they came, are superior to the rules derived by a learning system that directly refines symbolic rules, and are expert-comprehensible. 1 Introduction Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have proven to be a powerful and general technique for machine learning [1, 11]. However, ANNs have several well-known shortcomings. Perhaps the most significant of these shortcomings is that determining why a trained ANN makes a particular decision is all but impossible. Without the ability to explain their decisions, it is hard to be confident in the reliability of a network that addresses a real-world problem. Moreover, this shortcoming makes it difficult to transfer the information learned by a network to the solution of related problems. Therefore, methods for the extraction of comprehensible, symbolic rules from trained networks are desirable. Our approach to understanding trained networks uses the three-link chain illustrated by Figure 1. The first link inserts domain knowledge, which need be neither complete nor correct, into a neural network using KBANN [13] - see Section 2. (Networks created using KBANN are called KNNs.) The second link trains the KNN using a set of classified 977 978 Towell and Shavlik Neural Learning Figure 1: Rule refinement using neural networks. training examples and standard neural learning methods [9]. The final link extracts rules from trained KNNs. Rule extraction is an extremely difficult task for arbitrarily-configured networks, but is somewhat less daunting for KNNs due to their initial comprehensibility. Our method (described in Section 3) takes advantage of this property to efficiently extract rules from trained KNNs. Significantly, when evaluated in terms of the ability to correctly classify examples not seen during training, our method produces rules that are equal or superior to the networks from which they came (see Section 4). Moreover, the extracted rules are superior to the rules resulting from methods that act directly on the rules (rather than their re-representation as a neural network). Also, our method is superior to the most widely-published algorithm for the extraction of rules from general neural networks. 2 The KBANN Algorithm The KBANN algorithm translates symbolic domain knowledge into neural networks; defining the topology and connection weights of the networks it creates. It uses a knowledge base of domain-specific inference rules to define what is initially known about a topic. A detailed explanation of this rule-translation appears in [13]. As an example of the KBANN method, consider the sample domain knowledge in Figure 2a that defines membership in category A. Figure 2b represents the hierarchical structure of these rules: solid and dotted lines represent necessary and prohibitory dependencies, respectively. Figure 2c represents the KNN that results from the translation into a neural network of this domain knowledge. Units X and Y in Figure 2c are introduced into the KNN to handle the diSjunction in the rule set. Otherwise, each unit in the KNN corresponds to a consequent or an antecedent in the domain knowledge. The thick lines in Figure 2c represent heavily-weighted links in the KNN that correspond to dependencies in the domain knowledge. The thin lines represent the links added to the network to allow refinement of the domain knowledge. Weights and biases in the network are set so that, prior to learning, the network's response to inputs is exactly the same as the domain knowledge. This example illustrates the two principal benefits of using KBANN to initialize KNNs. First, the algorithm indicates the features that are believed to be important to an example's classification. Second, it specifies important derived features, thereby guiding the choice of the number and connectivity of hidden units. 3 Rule Extraction Almost every method of rule extraction makes two assumptions about networks. First, that training does not significantly shift the meaning of units. By making this assumption, the methods are able to attach labels to rules that correspond to terms in the domain knowledge Interpretation of Artificial Neural Networks c A : - B. C. B:- notH. B:- notF. O. C :- I. J. F (a) G A H I (b) J K (c) Figure 2: Translation of domain knowledge into a KNN. upon which the network is based. These labels enhance the comprehensibility of the rules. The second assumption is that the units in a trained KNN are always either active (::::::: 1) or inactive (::::::: 0). Under this assumption each non-input unit in a trained KNN can be treated as a Boolean rule. Therefore, the problem for rule extraction is to determine the situations in which the "rule" is true. Examination of trained KNNs validates both of these assumptions. Given these assumptions, the simplest method for extracting rules we call the SUBSET method. This method operates by exhaustively searching for subsets of the links into a unit such that the sum of the weights of the links in the subset guarantees that the total input to the unit exceeds its bias. In the limit, SUBSET extracts a set of rules that reproduces the behavior of the network. However, the combinatorics of this method render it impossible to implement. Heuristics can be added to reduce the complexity of the search at some cost in the accuracy of the resulting rules. Using heuristic search, SUBSET tends to produce repetitive rules whose preconditions are difficult to interpret. (See [10] or [2] for more detailed explanations of SUBSET.) Our algorithm, called NOFM, addresses both the combinatorial and presentation problems inherent to the SUBSET algorithm. It differs from SUBSET in that it explicitly searches for rules of the form: " I f (N of these M antecedents are true) ... " This method arose because we noticed that rule sets discovered by the SUBSET method often contain N-of-M style concepts. Further support for this method comes from experiments that indicate neural networks are good at learning N-of-M concepts [1] as well as experiments that show a bias towards N-of-M style concepts is useful [5]. Finally, note that purely conjunctive rules result if N = M, while a set of disjunctive rules results when N 1; hence, using N-of-M rules does not restrict generality. = The idea underlying NOFM (summarized in Table 1) is that individual antecedents (links) do not have unique importance. Rather, groups of antecedents form equivalence classes in which each antecedent has the same importance as, and is interchangeable with, other members of the class. This equivalence-class idea allows NOFM to consider groups of links without worrying about particular links within the group. Unfortunately, training using backpropagation does not naturally bunch links into equivalence classes. Hence, the first step of NOFM groups links into equivalence classes. This grouping can be done using standard clustering methods [3] in which clustering is stopped when no clusters are closer than a user-set distance (we use 0.25). After clustering, the links to the unit in the upper-rigtlt corner of Figure 3 form two groups, one of four links with weight near one and one of three links with weight near six. (The effect of this grouping is very similar to the training method suggested by Nowlan and Hinton [7].) 979 980 Towell and Shavlik Table 1: The NOFM algorithm for rule extraction. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) With each hidden and output unit, fonn groups of similarly-weighted links. Set link weights of aU group members to the average of the group. Eliminate any groups that do not affect whether the unit will be active or inactive. Holding all links weights constant, optimize biases of hidden and output units. Form a single rule for each hidden and output unit. The rule consists of a threshold given by the bias and weighted antecedents specified by remaining links. Where possible, simplify rules to eliminate spperfluous weights and thresholds. 5ti'N~ 5ii'f'~ 6.2 1.2 6.1 6.1 1.1 1.1 6 .1 1.1 1.1 6.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 6.0 II I I \ \\ A C B D E F G then C D I B A After Steps 1 and 2 6.1 ... NurnberTrue (A, C, F) > 10.9 Z. Nurn.berTrue 6.1 / / FI I \E \ \ G A Initial Unit if <j?f'0~ 6.1 6.1 I C \ F After Step 3 if 2 of { A C F} then Z. returns the number of true antecedents After Steps 4 and S After Step 6 Figure 3: Rule extraction using NOFM. Once the groups are formed, the procedure next attempts to identify and eliminate groups that do not contribute to the calculation of the consequent. In the extreme case, this analysis is trivial; clusters can be eliminated solely on the basis of their weight. In Figure 3 no combination of the cluster of links with weight 1.1 can cause the summed weights to exceed the bias on unit Z. Hence, links with weight 1.1 are eliminated from Figure 3 after step 3. More often, the assessment of a cluster's utility uses heuristics. The heuristic we use is to scan each training example and determine which groups can be eliminated while leaving the example correctly categorized. Groups not required by any example are eliminated. With unimportant groups eliminated, the next step of the procedure is to optimize the bias on each unit. Optimization is required to adjust the network so that it accurately reflects the assumption that units are boolean. This can be done by freezing link weights (so that the groups stay intact) and retraining the bias terms in the network. After optimization, rules are formed that simply re-express the network. Note that these rules are considerable simpler than the trained network; they have fewer antecedents and those antecedents tend to be in a few weight classes. Finally, rules are simplified whenever possible to eliminate the weights and thresholds. Simplification is accomplished by a scan of each restated rule to determine combinations of Interpretation of Artificial Neural Networks clusters that exceed the threshold. In Figure 3 the result of this scan is a single N-of-M style rule. When a rule has more than one cluster, this scan may return multiple combinations each of which has several N-of-M predicates. In such cases, rules are left in their original form of weights and a threshold. 4 Experiments in Rule Extraction This section presents a set of experiments designed to determine the relative strengths and weaknesses of the two rule-extraction methods described above. Rule-extraction techniques are compared using two measures: quality, which is measured both by the accuracy of the rules; and comprehensibility which is approximated by analysis of extracted rule sets. 4.1 Testing Methodology Following Weiss and Kulikowski [14], we use repeated 10-fold cross-validation l for testing learning on two tasks from molecular biology: promoter recognition [13] and splice-junction determination [6] . Networks are trained using the cross-entropy. Following Hinton's [4] suggestion for improved network interpretability, all weights "decay" gently during training. 4.2 Accuracy of Extracted Rules Figure 4 addresses the issue of the accuracy of extracted rules. It plots percentage of errors on the testing and training sets, averaged over eleven repetitions of 10-fold cross-validation, for both the promoter and splice-junction tasks. For comparison, Figure 4 includes the accuracy of the trained KNNs prior to rule extraction (the bars labeled "Network"). Also included in Figure 4 is the accuracy of the EITHER system, an "all symbolic" method for the empirical adaptation of rules [8]. (EITHER has not been applied to the splice-junction problem.) The initial rule sets for promoter recognition and splice-junction determination correctly categorized 50% and 61 %, respectively, of the examples. Hence, each of the systems plotted in Figure 4 improved upon the initial rules. Comparing only the systems that result in refined rules, the NOFM method is the clear winner. On training examples, the error rate for rules extracted by NOFM is slightly worse than EITHER but superior to the rules extracted using SUBSET. On the testing examples the NOFM rules are more accurate than both EITHER and SUBSET. (One-tailed, paired-sample t-tests indicate that for both domains the NOFM rules are superior to the SUBSET rules with 99.5% confidence.) Perhaps the most significant result in this paper is that, on the testing set, the error rate of the NOFM rules is equal or superior to that of the networks from which the rules were extracted. Conversely, the error rate of the SUBSET rules on testing examples is statistically worse than the networks in both problem domains. The discussion at the end of this paper lIn N -fold cross-validation, the set of examples is partitioned into N sets of equal size. Networks are trained using N - 1 of the sets and tested using the remaining set. This procedure is repeated N times so that each set is used as the testing set once. We actually used only N - 2 of the sets for training. One set was used for testing and the other to stop training to prevent overfitting of the training set. 981 982 Towell and Shavlik Promoter Domain Splice-Junction Domain Training Set Testing Set Network MofN Subset Figure 4: Error rates of extracted rules. analyses the reasons why NOFM's rules can be superior to the networks from which they came. 4.3 Comprehensibility To be useful, the extracted rules must not only be accurate, they also must be understandable. To assess rule comprehensibility, we looked at rule sets extracted by the NOFM method. Table 3 presents the rules extracted by NOFM for promoter recognition. The rules extracted by NOFM for splice-junction determination are not shown because they have much the same character as those of the promoter domain. While Table 3 is someWhat murky, it is vastly more comprehensible than the network of 3000 links from which it was extracted. Moreover, the rules in this table can be rewritten in a form very similar to one used in the biological community [12], namely weight matrices. One major pattern in the extracted rules is that the network learns to disregard a major portion of the initial rules. These same rules are dropped by other rule-refinement systems (e.g., EITHER). This suggests that the deletion of these rules is not merely an artifact of NOFM, but instead reflects an underlying property of the data. Hence, we demonstrate that machine learning methods can provide valuable evidence about biological theories. Looking beyond the dropped rules, the rules NOFM extracts confirm the importance of the bases identified in the initial rules (Tabie 2). However, whereas the initial rules required matching every base, the extracted rules allow a less than perfect match. In addition, the extracted rules point to places in which changes to the sequence are important. For instance, in the first minus10 rule, a \ T' in position 11 is a strong indicator that the rule is true. However, replacing the \ T' with either a \ G' or an \ A' prevents the rule from being satisfied. 5 Discussion and Conclusions Our results indicate that the NOFM method not only can extract meaningful, symbolic rules from trained KNNs, the extracted rules can be superior at classifying examples not seen during training to the networks from which they came. Additionally, the NOFM method produces rules whose accuracy is substantially better than EITHER, an approach that directly modifies the initial set of rules [8]. While the rule set produced by the NOFM algorithm is Interpretation of Artificial Neural Networks Table 2: Partial set of original rules for promoter-recognition. ...- promoter contact minus-35 minus-10 conformation .- .- contact, conformation. minus-35, minus-10. @-37 'CTTGAC' . --- three additional rules @-14 'TATAAT' ? three additional rules @-45 'AA--A' . --- three additional rules --- Examples are 57 base-pair long strands of DNA. Rules refer to bases by stating a sequence location followed by a subsequnce. So, @-37 ocr' indicates a 'C' in position -37 and a 'T' in position -36. Table 3: Promoter rules NOFM extracts. Promoter :- Minus35, Minus10. Minus-35 :-10 < 4.0 1.5 0.5 1.5 Minus-35 :-10 < 5.0 3.1 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.9 3.1 Minus-35 Minus-35 .- ? ? ? ? Minus-10 nt(@-37 nt(@-37 nt(@-37 nt(@-37 '--TTGAT-' '----TCC-' '---MC---' '--GGAGG-' ) + ) + ) ). * nt(@-37 '--T-G--A' ) * nt(@-37 '---GT---' ) * nt(@-37 '----C-CT' ) ? nt (@-37 '---C--A-' ) ? nt(@-37 ,------GC' ) * nt(@-37 '--CAW---' ) ? nt(@-37 '--A----C' ) @-37 '-C-TGAC-' . @-37 '--TTD-CA' . + + + - - - . .- 2 of @-14 '---CA---T' and not 1 of @-14 '---RB---S' . Minus-10 :-10 < 3.0 1.8 0.7 0.7 Minus-10 :-10 < 3.8 3.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 Minus-10 . - ? ? ? nt nt nt * nt (@-14 (@-14 (@-14 (@-14 '--TAT--T-' ) + '-----GA--' 1 + '----GAT--' 1 '--GKCCCS-') . * nt (@-14 '--TA-A-T-') * nt(@-14 '--G--C---') ? nt(@-14 '---T---A-') * nt (@-14 '--CS-G-S-' ) ? nt(@-14 '--A--T---') @-14 '-TAWA-T--' ? + + . "ntO" returns the number of enclosed in the parentheses antecedents that match the given sequence. So, nt(@-14 '- - - C - - G - -')wouldreturn 1 whenmatchedagainstthesequence@-14'AAACAAAAA'. Table 4: Standard nucleotide ambiguity codes. Code M K Meaning AorC GorT Code R D Meaning AorG A or G orT Code W B Meaning AorT C orG orT Code S Meaning CorG slightly larger than that produced by EITHER, the sets of rules produced by both of these algorithms is small enough to be easily understood. Hence, although weighing the tradeoff between accuracy and understandability is problem and user-specific, the NOFM approach combined with KBANN offers an appealing mixture. The superiority of the NOFM rules over the networks from which they are extracted may occur because the rule-extraction process reduces overfitting of the training examples. The principle evidence in support of this hypothesis is that the difference in ability to correctly categorize testing and training examples is smaller for NOFM rules than for trained KNNs. Thus, the rules extracted by NOFM sacrifice some training set accuracy to achieve higher testing set accuracy. Additionally, in earlier tests this effect was more pronounced; the NOFM rules were superior to the networks from which they came on both datasets (with 99according to a one-tailed t-test). Modifications to training to reduce overfitting improved generalization by networks without significantly affecting NOFM's rules. The result of the change in training method is that the differences between the network and NOFM are not statistically significant in either dataset. However, the result is significant in that it supports the overfitting hypothesis. 983 984 Towell and Shavlik In summary, the NOFM method extracts accurate, comprehensible rules from trained KNNs. The method is currently limited to KNNs; randomly-configured networks violate its assumptions. New training methods [7] may broaden the applicability of the method. Even without different methods for training, our results show that NOFM provides a mechanism through which networks can make expert comprehensible explanations of their behavior. In addition, the extracted rules allow for the transfer of learning to the solution of related problems. Acknowledgments This work is partially supported by Office of Naval Research Grant NOOOI4-90-J-194 I , National Science Foundation Grant IRI-9002413, and Department of Energy Grant DEFG02-91ER61129. References [1] D. H. Fisher and K. B. McKusick. An empirical comparison of ID3 and back-propagation. In Proceedings of the Eleventh International loint Conference on Artiftcial Intelligence, pages 788-793,Detroit., MI, August 1989. [2] L. M. Fu. Rule learning by searching on adapted nets. In Proceedings of the Ninth National Conference on ArtiftcialIntelligence, pages 590-595, Anaheim, CA, 1991. [3] J. A. Hartigan. Clustering Algorithms. Wiley. New York. 1975. [4] G. E. Hinton. Connectionist learning procedures. Artificial Intelligence. 40:185-234,1989. [5] P. M. Murphy and M. J. Pazzani. ID2-of-3: Constructive induction of N-of-M concepts for discriminators in decision trees. In Proceedings of the Eighth International Machine Learning Workshop. pages 183-187. Evanston. IL. 1991. [6] M. O. Noordewier. G. G. Towell, and J. W. Shavlik. Training knowledge-based neural networks to recognize genes in DNA sequences. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems. 3, Denver. CO, 1991. Morgan Kaufmann. [7] S. J. Nowlan and G. E. Hinton. Simplifying neural networks by soft weight-sharing. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 4, Denver, CO, 1991. Morgan Kaufmann. [8] D. Ourston and R. J. Mooney. Changing the rules: A comprehensive approach to theory refinement. In Proceedings of the Eighth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pages 815-820, Boston. MA. Aug 1990. [9] D. E. Rumelhart, G. E. Hinton. and R. J. Williams. Learning internal representations by error propagation. In D. E. Rumelhart and J. L. McClelland. editors, Parallel Distributed Processing: Explorations in the microstructure of cognition. Volume 1,' Foundations. pages 318-363. MIT Press, Cambridge. MA. 1986. [10] K. Saito and R. Nakano. Medical diagnostic expert system based on PDP model. In Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks. volume 1, pages 255-262. 1988. [11] J. W. Shavlik. R. J. Mooney. and G. G. Towell. Symbolic and neural net learning algorithms: An empirical comparison. Machine Learning. 6:111-143. 1991. [12] G. D. Stormo. Consensus patterns in DNA. In Methods in Enzymology. volume 183. pages 211-221. Academic Press, Orlando, FL, 1990. [13] G. G. Towell, J. W. Shavlik, and M. O. Noordewier. Refinement of approximately correct domain theories by knowledge-based neural networks. In Proceedings of the Eighth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pages 861-866,Boston, MA, 1990. [14] S. M. Weiss and C. A. Kulikowski. Computer Systems that Learn. Morgan Kaufmann. San Mateo, CA, 1990.
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Best-Arm Identi?cation in Linear Bandits Marta Soare Alessandro Lazaric R?mi Munos? ? INRIA Lille ? Nord Europe, SequeL Team {marta.soare,alessandro.lazaric,remi.munos}@inria.fr Abstract We study the best-arm identi?cation problem in linear bandit, where the rewards of the arms depend linearly on an unknown parameter ?? and the objective is to return the arm with the largest reward. We characterize the complexity of the problem and introduce sample allocation strategies that pull arms to identify the best arm with a ?xed con?dence, while minimizing the sample budget. In particular, we show the importance of exploiting the global linear structure to improve the estimate of the reward of near-optimal arms. We analyze the proposed strategies and compare their empirical performance. Finally, as a by-product of our analysis, we point out the connection to the G-optimality criterion used in optimal experimental design. 1 Introduction The stochastic multi-armed bandit problem (MAB) [16] offers a simple formalization for the study of sequential design of experiments. In the standard model, a learner sequentially chooses an arm out of K and receives a reward drawn from a ?xed, unknown distribution relative to the chosen arm. While most of the literature in bandit theory focused on the problem of maximization of cumulative rewards, where the learner needs to trade-off exploration and exploitation, recently the pure exploration setting [5] has gained a lot of attention. Here, the learner uses the available budget to identify as accurately as possible the best arm, without trying to maximize the sum of rewards. Although many results are by now available in a wide range of settings (e.g., best-arm identi?cation with ?xed budget [2, 11] and ?xed con?dence [7], subset selection [6, 12], and multi-bandit [9]), most of the work considered only the multi-armed setting, with K independent arms. An interesting variant of the MAB setup is the stochastic linear bandit problem (LB), introduced in [3]. In the LB setting, the input space X is a subset of Rd and when pulling an arm x, the learner observes a reward whose expected value is a linear combination of x and an unknown parameter ?? ? Rd . Due to the linear structure of the problem, pulling an arm gives information about the parameter ?? and indirectly, about the value of other arms. Therefore, the estimation of K meanrewards is replaced by the estimation of the d features of ?? . While in the exploration-exploitation setting the LB has been widely studied both in theory and in practice (e.g., [1, 14]), in this paper we focus on the pure-exploration scenario. The fundamental difference between the MAB and the LB best-arm identi?cation strategies stems from the fact that in MAB an arm is no longer pulled as soon as its sub-optimality is evident (in high probability), while in the LB setting even a sub-optimal arm may offer valuable information about the parameter vector ?? and thus improve the accuracy of the estimation in discriminating among near-optimal arms. For instance, consider the situation when K?2 out of K arms are already discarded. In order to identify the best arm, MAB algorithms would concentrate the sampling on the two remaining arms to increase the accuracy of the estimate of their mean-rewards until the discarding condition is met for one of them. On the contrary, a LB pure-exploration strategy would seek to pull the arm x ? X whose observed reward allows to re?ne the estimate ? ? along the dimensions which are more suited in discriminating between the two remaining arms. Recently, the best-arm identi?cation in linear bandits has been studied in a ?xed budget setting [10], in this paper we study the sample complexity required to identify the best-linear arm with a ?xed con?dence. ? ? This work was done when the author was a visiting researcher at Microsoft Research New-England. Current af?liation: Google DeepMind. 1 2 Preliminaries The setting. We consider the standard linear bandit model. Let X ? Rd be a ?nite set of arms, where |X | = K and the ?2 -norm of any arm x ? X , denoted by ||x||, is upper-bounded by L. Given an unknown parameter ? ? ? Rd , we assume that each time an arm x ? X is pulled, a random reward r(x) is generated according to the linear model r(x) = x? ?? + ?, where ? is a zero-mean i.i.d. noise bounded in [??; ?]. Arms are evaluated according to their expected reward x? ?? and we denote by x? = arg maxx?X x? ?? the best arm in X . Also, we use ?(?) = arg maxx?X x? ? to refer to the best arm corresponding to an arbitrary parameter ?. Let ?(x, x? ) = (x ? x? )? ?? be the value gap between two arms, then we denote by ?(x) = ?(x? , x) the gap of x w.r.t. the optimal arm and by ?min = minx?X ?(x) the minimum gap, where ?min > 0. We also introduce the sets Y = {y = x ? x? , ?x, x? ? X } and Y ? = {y = x? ? x, ?x ? X } containing all the directions obtained as the difference of two arms (or an arm and the optimal arm) and we rede?ne accordingly the gap of a direction as ?(y) = ?(x, x? ) whenever y = x ? x? . The problem. We study the best-arm identi?cation problem. Let x ?(n) be the estimated best arm returned by a bandit algorithm after n steps. We evaluate the quality of x ?(n) by the simple regret Rn = (x? ? x ?(n))? ?? . While different settings can be de?ned (see [8] for an overview), here we focus on the (?, ?)-best-arm identi?cation problem (the so-called PAC setting), where given ? and ? ? (0, 1), the objective is to design an allocation strategy? and a stopping criterion so that when ? the algorithm stops, the returned arm x ?(n) is such that P Rn ? ? ? ?, while minimizing the needed number of steps. More speci?cally, we will focus on the case of ? = 0 and we will provide high-probability bounds on the sample complexity n. The multi-armed bandit case. In MAB, the complexity of best-arm identi?cation is characterized by the gaps between arm values, following the intuition that the more similar the arms, the more pulls are needed to distinguish between them. More formally, the complexity is given by the problem?K dependent quantity HMAB = i=1 ?12 i.e., the inverse of the pairwise gaps between the best arm i and the suboptimal arms. In the ?xed budget case, HMAB determines the probability of returning the wrong arm [2], while in the ?xed con?dence case, it characterizes the sample complexity [7]. Technical tools. Unlike in the multi-arm bandit scenario where pulling one arm does not provide any information about other arms, in a linear model we can leverage the rewards observed over time to estimate the expected reward of all the arms in X . Let xn = (x1 , . . . , xn ) ? X n be a sequence of arms and (r1 , . . . , rn ) the corresponding observed (random) rewards. An unbiased estimate of ?n ? ?? can be obtained by ordinary least-squares (OLS) as ??n = A?1 xn bxn , where Axn = t=1 xt xt ? ? n d?d d R and bxn = t=1 xt rt ? R . For any ?xed sequence xn , through Azuma?s inequality, the prediction error of the OLS estimate is upper-bounded in high-probability as follows. ? Proposition 1. Let c = 2? 2 and c? = 6/? 2 . For every ?xed sequence xn , we have1 ? ? ? ? ? ? n2 K/?) ? 1 ? ?. P ?n ? N, ?x ? X , ?x? ?? ? x? ??n ? ? c||x||A?1 log(c (1) x n While in the previous statement xn is ?xed, a bandit algorithm adapts the allocation in response to the rewards observed over time. In this case a different high-probability bound is needed. Proposition 2 (Thm. 2 in [1]). Let ??n? be the solution to the regularized least-squares problem with ??x = ?Id + Ax . Then for all x ? X and every adaptive sequence xn such regularizer ? and let A that at any step t, xt only depends on (x1 , r1 , . . . , xt?1 , rt?1 ), w.p. 1 ? ?, we have ? ? ? ? ? 2 ? ? ? ? ? ? ?x ? ? x ??n ? ? ||x|| ?? ?1 ? d log 1 + nL /? + ? 1/2 ||? ? || . (2) ( A xn ) ? ? The crucial difference w.r.t. Eq. 1 is an additional factor d, the price to pay for adapting xn to the samples. In the sequel we will often resort to the notion of design (or ?soft? allocation) ? ? Dk , denotes the simplex X . The counterpart which prescribes the proportions of pulls to arm x and Dk? of the design matrix A for a design ? is the matrix ?? = x?X ?(x)xx? . From an allocation xn we can derive the corresponding design ?xn as ?xn (x) = Tn (x)/n, where Tn (x) is the number of times arm x is selected in xn , and the corresponding design matrix is Axn = n??xn . 1 Whenever Prop.1 is used for all directions y ? Y, then the logarithmic term becomes log(c? n2 K 2 /?) because of an additional union bound. For the sake of simplicity, in the sequel we always use logn (K 2 /?). 2 3 The Complexity of the Linear Best-Arm Identi?cation Problem As reviewed in Sect. 2, in the MAB case the complexity of the best-arm identi?cation task is characterized by the reward gaps between the optimal and suboptimal arms. In this section, we propose an extension of the notion of complexity to the case of linear best-arm identi?cation. In particular, we characterize the complexity by the performance of an oracle with access to the parameter ?? . C(x1) = C ? ?? x1 0 C(x3) x3 x2 C(x2) Stopping condition. Let C(x) = {? ? R , x ? ?(?)} be the set of parameters ? which admit x as an optimal arm. corresponding to three As illustrated in Fig. 1, C(x) is the cone de?ned by the Figure 1: The cones (dots) in R2 . Since ?? ? C(x1 ), then intersection of half-spaces such that C(x) = ?x? ?X {? ? arms ? ? Rd , (x ? x? )? ? ? 0} and all the cones together form a x = x1 . The con?dence set S (xn ) (in green) is aligned with directions x1 ?x2 and d partition of the Euclidean space R . We assume that the x1 ? x3 . Given the uncertainty in S ? (xn ), oracle knows the cone C(x? ) containing all the param- both x1 and x3 may be optimal. eters for which x? is optimal. Furthermore, we assume that for any allocation xn , it is possible to construct a con?dence set S ? (xn ) ? Rd such that ? ? ??? ? S ? (xn ) and ? the (random) OLS estimate ?n belongs to S (xn ) with high probability, i.e., ? ? P ?n ? S (xn ) ? 1 ? ?. As a result, the oracle stopping criterion simply checks whether the con?dence set S ? (xn ) is contained in C(x? ) or not. In fact, whenever for an allocation xn the set S ? (xn ) overlaps the cones of different arms x ? X , there is ambiguity in the identity of the arm ?(??n ). On the other hand when all possible values of ??n are included with high probability in the ?right? cone C(x? ), then the optimal arm is returned. ? ? Lemma 1. Let xn be an allocation such that S ? (xn ) ? C(x? ). Then P ?(??n ) = x? ? ?. d Arm selection strategy. From the previous lemma2 it follows that the objective of an arm selection strategy is to de?ne an allocation xn which leads to S ? (xn ) ? C(x? ) as quickly as possible.3 Since this condition only depends on deterministic objects (S ? (xn ) and C(x? )), it can be computed independently from the actual reward realizations. From a geometrical point of view, this corresponds to choosing arms so that the con?dence set S ? (xn ) shrinks into the optimal cone C(x? ) within the smallest number of pulls. To characterize this strategy we need to make explicit the form of S ? (xn ). Intuitively speaking, the more S ? (xn ) is ?aligned? with the boundaries of the cone, the easier it is to shrink it into the cone. More formally, the condition S ? (xn ) ? C(x? ) is equivalent to ?x ? X , ?? ? S ? (xn ), (x? ? x)? ? ? 0 ? ?y ? Y ? , ?? ? S ? (xn ), y ? (? ? ? ?) ? ?(y). Then we can simply use Prop. 1 to directly control the term y ? (? ? ? ?) and de?ne ? ? ? S ? (xn ) = ? ? Rd , ?y ? Y ? , y ? (? ? ? ?) ? c||y||A?1 logn (K 2 /?) . x n (3) Thus the stopping condition S ? (xn ) ? C(x? ) is equivalent to the condition that, for any y ? Y ? , ? c||y||A?1 logn (K 2 /?) ? ?(y). (4) x n From this condition, the oracle allocation strategy simply follows as ? logn (K 2 /?) c||y||A?1 ||y||A?1 x xn n x?n = arg min max? = arg min max? . xn y?Y xn y?Y ?(y) ?(y) (5) Notice that this strategy does not return an uniformly accurate estimate of ?? but it rather pulls arms that allow to reduce the uncertainty of the estimation of ?? over the directions of interest (i.e., Y ? ) below their corresponding gaps. This implies that the objective of Eq. 5 is to exploit the global linear assumption by pulling any arm in X that could give information about ?? over the directions in Y ? , so that directions with small gaps are better estimated than those with bigger gaps. 2 For all the proofs in this paper, we refer the reader to the long version of the paper [18]. Notice that by de?nition of the con?dence set and since ?n ? ?? as n ? ?, any strategy repeatedly pulling all the arms would eventually meet the stopping condition. 3 3 Sample complexity. We are now ready to de?ne the sample complexity of the oracle, which corresponds to the minimum number of steps needed by the allocation in Eq. 5 to achieve the stopping condition in Eq. 4. From a technical point of view, it is more convenient to express the complexity of the problem in terms of the optimal design (soft allocation) instead of the discrete allocation xn . Let ?? (?) = maxy?Y ? ||y||2??1 /?2 (y) be the square of the objective function in Eq. 5 for any design ? ? ? Dk . We de?ne the complexity of a linear best-arm identi?cation problem as the performance achieved by the optimal design ?? = arg min? ?? (?), i.e. ||y||2??1 HLB = min max? 2 ? = ?? (?? ). (6) ? (y) ??D k y?Y This de?nition of complexity is less explicit than in the case of HMAB but it contains similar elements, notably the inverse of the gaps squared. Nonetheless, instead of summing the inverses over all the arms, HLB implicitly takes into consideration the correlation between the arms in the term ||y||2??1 , which represents the uncertainty in the estimation of the gap between x? and x (when ? y = x? ? x). As a result, from Eq. 4 the sample complexity becomes N ? = c2 HLB logn (K 2 /?), (7) where we use the fact that, if implemented over n steps, ?? induces a design matrix A?? = n??? and maxy ||y||2A?1 /?2 (y) = ?? (?? )/n. Finally, we bound the range of the complexity. ?? Lemma 2. Given an arm set X ? Rd and a parameter ? ? , the complexity HLB (Eq. 6) is such that max? ||y||2 /(L?2min ) ? HLB ? 4d/?2min . (8) y?Y Furthermore, if X is the canonical basis, the problem reduces to a MAB and HMAB ? HLB ? 2HMAB . The previous bounds show that ?min plays a signi?cant role in de?ning the complexity of the problem, while the speci?c shape of X impacts the numerator in different ways. In the worst case the full dimensionality d appears (upper-bound), and more arm-set speci?c quantities, such as the norm of the arms L and of the directions Y ? , appear in the lower-bound. 4 Static Allocation Strategies The oracle stopping condition (Eq. 4) and allocation strategy (Eq. 5) cannot be implemented in practice since ?? , the gaps ?(y), and the directions Y ? are unknown. In this section we investigate how to de?ne algorithms that only rely on the information available from X and the samples collected over time. We introduce an empirical stopping criterion and two static allocations. Input: decision space X ? Rd , con?dence ? > 0 Set: t = 0; Y = {y = (x ? x? ); x = x? ? X }; while Eq. 11 is not true do if G-allocation then xt = arg min max x?? (A + xx? )?1 x? ? x?X x ?X x?X y?Y else if X Y-allocation then xt = arg min max y ? (A + xx? )?1 y end if Update ??t = A?1 t bt , t = t + 1 end while Return arm ?(??t ) Empirical stopping criterion. The stopping condition S ? (xn ) ? C(x? ) cannot be tested since S ? (xn ) is centered in the unknown parameter ?? and C(x? ) depends on the unknown optimal arm Figure 2: Static allocation algorithms x? . Nonetheless, we notice that given X , for each ? n ) be a high-probability con?dence x ? X the cones C(x) can be constructed beforehand. Let S(x ? n ) and P(? ? ? S(x ? n )) ? 1 ? ?. Unlike S ? , S? can be directly set such that for any xn , ??n ? S(x ? n ) ? C(x). computed from samples and we can stop whenever there exists an x such that S(x Lemma 3. Let xn = (x1 , . . . , xn ) be an arbitrary allocation sequence. If after n steps there exists ? ? ? n ) ? C(x) then P ?(??n ) = x? ? ?. an arm x ? X such that S(x Arm selection strategy. Similarly to the oracle algorithm, we should design an allocation strategy ? n ) shrinks in one of the cones C(x) within the that guarantees that the (random) con?dence set S(x ? ? fewest number of steps. Let ?n (x, x ) = (x ? x? )? ??n be the empirical gap between arms x, x? . ? n ) ? C(x) can be written as Then the stopping condition S(x ? ? ?x ? X , ?x ? X ,?? ? S(xn ), (x ? x? )? ? ? 0 ? n ), (x ? x? )? (??n ? ?) ? ? ? n (x, x? ). ? ?x ? X , ?x? ? X , ?? ? S(x 4 (9) This suggests that the empirical con?dence set can be de?ned as ? ? ? ? n ) = ? ? Rd , ?y ? Y, y ? (??n ? ?) ? c||y|| ?1 logn (K 2 /?) . S(x Ax n (10) ? n ) is centered in ??n and it considers all directions y ? Y. As a result, the Unlike S ? (xn ), S(x stopping condition in Eq. 9 could be reformulated as ? ? n (x, x? ). logn (K 2 /?) ? ? (11) ?x ? X , ?x? ? X , c||x ? x? ||A?1 x n Although similar to Eq. 4, unfortunately this condition cannot be directly used to derive an allocation strategy. In fact, it is considerably more dif?cult to de?ne a suitable allocation strategy to ?t a random con?dence set S? into a cone C(x) for an x which is not known in advance. In the following we propose two allocations that try to achieve the condition in Eq. 11 as fast as possible by implementing a static arm selection strategy, while we present a more sophisticated adaptive strategy in Sect. 5. The general structure of the static allocations in summarized in Fig. 2. G-Allocation Strategy. The de?nition of the G-allocation strategy directly follows from the observation that for any pair (x, x? ) ? X 2 we have that ||x ? x? ||A?1 . This ? 2 maxx?? ?X ||x?? ||A?1 xn xn reduces an upper bound on the quantity suggests that an allocation minimizing maxx?X ||x||A?1 xn tested in the stopping condition in Eq. 11. Thus, for any ?xed n, we de?ne the G-allocation as xG . n = arg min max ||x||A?1 x xn x?X n (12) We notice that this formulation coincides with the standard G-optimal design (hence the name of the allocation) de?ned in experimental design theory [15, Sect. 9.2] to minimize the maximal meansquared prediction error in linear regression. The G-allocation can be interpreted as the design that allows to estimate ? ? uniformly well over all the arms in X . Notice that the G-allocation in Eq. 12 is well de?ned only for a ?xed number of steps n and it cannot be directly implemented in our case, since n is unknown in advance. Therefore we have to resort to a more ?incremental? implementation. In the experimental design literature a wide number of approximate solutions have been proposed to solve the NP -hard discrete optimization problem in Eq. 12 (see [4, 17] for some recent results and [18] for a more thorough discussion). For any approximate G-allocation strategy with performance G no worse than a factor (1 + ?) of the optimal strategy xG n , the sample complexity N is bounded as follows. Theorem 1. If the G-allocation strategy is implemented with a ?-approximate method and the stopping condition in Eq. 11 is used, then ? ? 16c2 d(1 + ?) logn (K 2 /?) G ? ? P N ? (13) ? ?(?N G ) = x ? 1 ? ?. ?2min Notice that this result matches (up to constants) the worst-case value of N ? given the upper bound on HLB . This means that, although completely static, the G-allocation is already worst-case optimal. X Y-Allocation Strategy. Despite being worst-case optimal, G-allocation is minimizing a rather loose upper bound on the quantity used to test the stopping criterion. Thus, we de?ne an alternative static allocation that targets the stopping condition in Eq. 11 more directly by reducing its left-handside for any possible direction in Y. For any ?xed n, we de?ne the X Y-allocation as Y = arg min max ||y||A?1 xX . n x xn y?Y n (14) X Y-allocation is based on the observation that the stopping condition in Eq. 11 requires only the ? empirical gaps ?(x, x? ) to be well estimated, hence arms are pulled with the objective of increasing the accuracy of directions in Y instead of arms X . This problem can be seen as a transductive variant of the G-optimal design [19], where the target vectors Y are different from the vectors X used in the design. The sample complexity of the X Y-allocation is as follows. Theorem 2. If the X Y-allocation strategy is implemented with a ?-approximate method and the stopping condition in Eq. 11 is used, then ? ? 32c2 d(1 + ?) logn (K 2 /?) ?N X Y ) = x? ? 1 ? ?. P NXY ? (15) ? ?( ? ?2min Although the previous bound suggests that X Y achieves a performance comparable to the Gallocation, in fact X Y may be arbitrarily better than G-allocation (for an example, see [18]). 5 5 X Y-Adaptive Allocation Strategy Fully adaptive allocation strategies. space X ? Rd ; parameter ?; con?dence ? Although both G- and X Y-allocation are Input: decision ? ? sound since they minimize upper-bounds Set j = 1; Xj = X ; Y1 = Y; ?0 = 1; n0 = d(d + 1) + 1 ?j | > 1 do while | X on the quantities used by the stopping ?j = ?j?1 condition (Eq. 11), they may be very subt = 1; A0 = I optimal w.r.t. the ideal performance of while ?j /t ? ??j?1 (xj?1 nj?1 )/nj?1 do the oracle introduced in Sec. 3. TypiSelect arm xt = arg min max y ? (A + xx? )?1 y cally, an improvement can be obtained by y?Y x?X moving to strategies adapting on the reUpdate At = At?1 + xt x? t ,t = t+1 wards observed over time. Nonetheless, ?j = maxy?Y?j y ? A?1 t y as reported in Prop. 2, whenever xn is end while ? not a ?xed sequence, the bound in Eq. Compute b = ts=1 xs rs ; ??j = A?1 ?2 t b should be used. As a result, a factor d X?j+1 = X would appear in the de?nition of the confor x ? X do ? ? j (x? , x) then ?dence sets and in the stopping condiif ?x? : ||x ? x? ||A?1 logn (K 2 /?) ? ? t tion. This directly implies that the sample X?j+1 = X?j+1 ? {x} complexity of a fully adaptive strategy end if would scale linearly with the dimensionend for ?j+1 = {y = (x ? x? ); x, x? ? X?j+1 } ality d of the problem, thus removing any Y advantage w.r.t. static allocations. In fact, end while the sample complexity of G- and X Y- Return ?(??j ) allocation already scales linearly with d Figure 3: X Y-Adaptive allocation algorithm and from Lem. 2 we cannot expect to improve the dependency on ?min . Thus, on the one hand, we need to use the tighter bounds in Eq. 1 and, on the other hand, we require to be adaptive w.r.t. samples. In the sequel we propose a phased algorithm which successfully meets both requirements using a static allocation within each phase but choosing the type of allocation depending on the samples observed in previous phases. Algorithm. The ideal case would be to de?ne an empirical version of the oracle allocation in Eq. 5 so as to adjust the accuracy of the prediction only on the directions of interest Y ? and according to their gaps ?(y). As discussed in Sect. 4 this cannot be obtained by a direct adaptation of Eq. 11. In the following, we describe a safe alternative to adjust the allocation strategy to the gaps. Lemma 4. Let xn be a ?xed allocation sequence and ??n its corresponding estimate for ? ? . If an arm x ? X is such that ? ? n (x? , x), ?x? ? X s.t. c||x? ? x||A?1 logn (K 2 /?) < ? (16) x n then arm x is sub-optimal. Moreover, if Eq. 16 is true, we say that x? dominates x. Lem. 4 allows to easily construct the set of potentially optimal arms, denoted X?(xn ), by removing from X all the dominated arms. As a result, we can replace the stopping condition in Eq. 11, by just testing whether the number of non-dominated arms |X?(xn )| is equal to 1, which corresponds to the case where the con?dence set is fully contained into a single cone. Using X?(xn ), we construct ? n ) = {y = x ? x? ; x, x? ? X?(xn )}, the set of directions along which the estimation of ?? needs Y(x ? n ) into a single cone and trigger the stopping condition. Note to be improved to further shrink S(x that if xn was an adaptive strategy, then we could not use Lem. 4 to discard arms but we should rely on the bound in Prop. 2. To avoid this problem, an effective solution is to run the algorithm through phases. Let j ? N be the index of a phase and nj its corresponding length. We denote by X?j the set of non-dominated arms constructed on the basis of the samples collected in the phase j ? 1. This set is used to identify the directions Y?j and to de?ne a static allocation which focuses on reducing the uncertainty of ?? along the directions in Y?j . Formally, in phase j we implement the allocation xjnj = arg min max ||y||A?1 , x xnj y?Y ?j nj (17) which coincides with a X Y-allocation (see Eq. 14) but restricted on Y?j . Notice that xjnj may still use any arm in X which could be useful in reducing the con?dence set along any of the directions in 6 Y?j . Once phase j is over, the OLS estimate ??j is computed using the rewards observed within phase j and then is used to test the stopping condition in Eq. 11. Whenever the stopping condition does not hold, a new set X?j+1 is constructed using the discarding condition in Lem. 4 and a new phase is started. Notice that through this process, at each phase j, the allocation xjnj is static conditioned on the previous allocations and the use of the bound from Prop. 1 is still correct. A crucial aspect of this algorithm is the length of the phases nj . On the one hand, short phases allow a high rate of adaptivity, since X?j is recomputed very often. On the other hand, if a phase is too short, it is very unlikely that the estimate ??j may be accurate enough to actually discard any arm. An effective way to de?ne the length of a phase in a deterministic way is to relate it to the actual uncertainty of the allocation in estimating the value of all the active directions in Y?j . In phase j, let ?j (?) = maxy?Y?j ||y||2??1 , then given a parameter ? ? (0, 1), we de?ne ? ? ? (18) nj = min n ? N : ?j (?xjn )/n ? ??j?1 (?j?1 )/nj?1 , where xjn is the allocation de?ned in Eq. 17 and ?j?1 is the design corresponding to xj?1 nj?1 , the allocation performed at phase j ? 1. In words, nj is the minimum number of steps needed by the X Y-adaptive allocation to achieve an uncertainty over all the directions of interest which is a fraction ? of the performance obtained in the previous iteration. Notice that given Y?j and ?j?1 this quantity can be computed before the actual beginning of phase j. The resulting algorithm using the X Y-Adaptive allocation strategy is summarized in Fig. 3. Sample complexity. Although the X Y-Adaptive allocation strategy is designed to approach the oracle sample complexity N ? , in early phases it basically implements a X Y-allocation and no sig? At that point, ni?cant improvement can be expected until some directions are discarded from Y. X Y-adaptive starts focusing on directions which only contain near-optimal arms and it starts approaching the behavior of the oracle. As a result, in studying the sample complexity of X Y-Adaptive we have to take into consideration the unavoidable price of discarding ?suboptimal? directions. This cost is directly related to the geometry of the arm space that in?uences the number of samples needed before arms can be discarded from X . To take into account this problem-dependent quantity, we introduce a slightly relaxed de?nition of complexity. More precisely, we de?ne the number of steps needed to discard all the directions which do not contain x? , i.e. Y ? Y ? . From a geometrical point of view, this corresponds to the case when for any pair of suboptimal arms (x, x? ), the con?dence set S ? (xn ) does not intersect the hyperplane separating the cones C(x) and C(x? ). Fig. 1 offers a simple illustration for such a situation: S ? no longer intercepts the border line between C(x2 ) and C(x3 ), which implies that direction x2 ? x3 can be discarded. More formally, the hyperplane containing parameters ? for which x and x? are equivalent is simply C(x) ? C(x? ) and the quantity Y ? (19) M ? = min{n ? N, ?x = x? , ?x? = x? , S ? (xX n ) ? (C(x) ? C(x )) = ?} corresponds to the minimum number of steps needed by the static X Y-allocation strategy to discard all the suboptimal directions. This term together with the oracle complexity N ? characterizes the sample complexity of the phases of the X Y-adaptive allocation. In fact, the length of the phases is such that either they correspond to the complexity of the oracle or they can never last more than the steps needed to discard all the sub-optimal directions. As a result, the overall sample complexity of the X Y-adaptive algorithm is bounded as in the following theorem. Theorem 3. If the X Y-Adaptive allocation strategy is implemented with a ?-approximate method and the stopping condition in Eq. 11 is used, then ? ? ? c?log (K 2 /?) ? ? (1 + ?) max{M ? , 16 n ? ?N } ? P N? (20) log ? ?(?N ) = x ? 1 ? ?. log(1/?) ?min We ?rst remark that, unlike G and X Y, the sample complexity of X Y-Adaptive does not have any direct dependency on d and ?min (except in the logarithmic term) but it rather scales with the oracle complexity N ? and the cost of discarding suboptimal directions M ? . Although this additional cost is probably unavoidable, one may have expected that X Y-Adaptive may need to discard all the suboptimal directions before performing as well as the oracle, thus having a sample complexity of O(M ? +N ? ). Instead, we notice that N scales with the maximum of M ? and N ? , thus implying that X Y-Adaptive may actually catch up with the performance of the oracle (with only a multiplicative factor of 16/?) whenever discarding suboptimal directions is less expensive than actually identifying the best arm. 7 6 Numerical Simulations We illustrate the performance of X Y-Adaptive and compare it to the X Y-Oracle strategy (Eq. 5), the static allocations X Y and G, as well as with the fully-adaptive version of X Y where X? is updated at each round and the bound from Prop.2 is used. For a ?xed con?dence ? = 0.05, we compare the sampling budget needed to identify the best arm with probability at least 1 ? ?. We consider a set of arms X ? Rd , with |X | = d + 1 including the canonical basis (e1 , . . . , ed ) and an additional arm xd+1 = [cos(?) sin(?) 0 . . . 0]? . We choose ? ? = [2 0 0 . . . 0]? , and ?x ? = 0.01, so that ?min = (x1 ? xd+1 )? ?? is much smaller than the other gaps. In this setting, an ef?cient sampling strategy should focus on reducing the uncertainty in the direction y? = (x1 ? xd+1 ) by pulling the arm x2 = e2 which is almost aligned with y?. In fact, from the rewards obtained from x2 it is easier to decrease the uncertainty about the second component of ?? , that is precisely the dimension which allows to discriminate between x1 and xd+1 . Also, we ?x ? = 1/10, and the noise ? ? N (0, 1). Each phase begins with an initialization matrix A0 , obtained by pulling once each canonical arm. In Fig. 4 we report the sampling budget of the algorithms, averaged over 100 runs, for d = 2 . . . 10. x 10 3.5 The results. The numerical results show that X YFully adaptive G Adaptive is effective in allocating the samples to XY 3 XY?Adaptive shrink the uncertainty in the direction y?. Indeed, XY?Oracle 2.5 X Y-adaptive identi?es the most important direction after few phases and is able to perform an allocation 2 which mimics that of the oracle. On the contrary, 1.5 X Y and G do not adjust to the empirical gaps and consider all directions as equally important. This 1 behavior forces X Y and G to allocate samples until 0.5 the uncertainty is smaller than ?min in all directions. 0 Even though the Fully-adaptive algorithm also idend=2 d=3 d=4 d=5 d=6 d=7 d=8 d=9 d=10 ? Dimension of the input space ti?es the most informative direction rapidly, the d term in the bound delays the discarding of the arms Figure 4: The sampling budget needed to identify arm, when the dimension grows from R2 and prevents the algorithm from gaining any advan- the best 10 to R . tage compared to X Y and G. As shown in Fig. 4, the difference between the budget of X Y-Adaptive and the static strategies increases with the number of dimensions. In fact, while additional dimensions have little to no impact on X Y-Oracle and X Y-Adaptive (the only important direction remains y? independently from the number of unknown features of ?? ), for the static allocations more dimensions imply more directions to be considered and more features of ?? to be estimated uniformly well until the uncertainty falls below ?min . Number of Samples 5 7 Conclusions In this paper we studied the problem of best-arm identi?cation with a ?xed con?dence, in the linear bandit setting. First we offered a preliminary characterization of the problem-dependent complexity of the best arm identi?cation task and shown its connection with the complexity in the MAB setting. Then, we designed and analyzed ef?cient sampling strategies for this problem. The G-allocation strategy allowed us to point out a close connection with optimal experimental design techniques, and in particular to the G-optimality criterion. Through the second proposed strategy, X Y-allocation, we introduced a novel optimal design problem where the testing arms do not coincide with the arms chosen in the design. Lastly, we pointed out the limits that a fully-adaptive allocation strategy might have in the linear bandit setting and proposed a phased-algorithm, X Y-Adaptive, that learns from previous observations, without suffering from the dimensionality of the problem. Since this is one of the ?rst works that analyze pure-exploration problems in the linear-bandit setting, it opens the way for an important number of similar problems already studied in the MAB setting. For instance, we can investigate strategies to identify the best-linear arm when having a limited budget or study the best-arm identi?cation when the set of arms is very large (or in?nite). Some interesting extensions also emerge from the optimal experimental design literature, such as the study of sampling strategies for meeting the G-optimality criterion when the noise is heterosckedastic, or the design of ef?cient strategies for satisfying other related optimality criteria, such as V-optimality. Acknowledgments This work was supported by the French Ministry of Higher Education and Research, Nord-Pas de Calais Regional Council and FEDER through the ?Contrat de Projets Etat Region 2007?2013", and European Community?s Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement no 270327 (project CompLACS). 8 References [1] Yasin Abbasi-Yadkori, D?vid P?l, and Csaba Szepesv?ri. Improved algorithms for linear stochastic bandits. In Proceedings of the 25th Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2011. [2] Jean-Yves Audibert, S?bastien Bubeck, and R?mi Munos. Best arm identi?cation in multiarmed bandits. In Proceedings of the 23rd Conference on Learning Theory (COLT), 2010. [3] Peter Auer. Using con?dence bounds for exploitation-exploration trade-offs. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3:397?422, 2002. [4] Mustapha Bouhtou, Stephane Gaubert, and Guillaume Sagnol. Submodularity and randomized rounding techniques for optimal experimental design. Electronic Notes in Discrete Mathematics, 36:679?686, 2010. [5] S?bastien Bubeck, R?mi Munos, and Gilles Stoltz. Pure exploration in multi-armed bandits problems. In Proceedings of the 20th International Conference on Algorithmic Learning Theory (ALT), 2009. [6] S?bastien Bubeck, Tengyao Wang, and Nitin Viswanathan. Multiple identi?cations in multiarmed bandits. In Proceedings of the International Conference in Machine Learning (ICML), pages 258?265, 2013. [7] Eyal Even-Dar, Shie Mannor, and Yishay Mansour. Action elimination and stopping conditions for the multi-armed bandit and reinforcement learning problems. J. Mach. Learn. Res., 7:1079? 1105, December 2006. [8] Victor Gabillon, Mohammad Ghavamzadeh, and Alessandro Lazaric. Best arm identi?cation: A uni?ed approach to ?xed budget and ?xed con?dence. In Proceedings of the 26th Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2012. [9] Victor Gabillon, Mohammad Ghavamzadeh, Alessandro Lazaric, and S?bastien Bubeck. Multi-bandit best arm identi?cation. In Proceedings of the 25th Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), pages 2222?2230, 2011. [10] Matthew D. Hoffman, Bobak Shahriari, and Nando de Freitas. On correlation and budget constraints in model-based bandit optimization with application to automatic machine learning. In Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Arti?cial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS), pages 365?374, 2014. [11] Kevin G. Jamieson, Matthew Malloy, Robert Nowak, and S?bastien Bubeck. lil? UCB : An optimal exploration algorithm for multi-armed bandits. In Proceeding of the 27th Conference on Learning Theory (COLT), 2014. [12] Emilie Kaufmann and Shivaram Kalyanakrishnan. Information complexity in bandit subset selection. In Proceedings of the 26th Conference on Learning Theory (COLT), pages 228?251, 2013. [13] Jack Kiefer and Jacob Wolfowitz. The equivalence of two extremum problems. Canadian Journal of Mathematics, 12:363?366, 1960. [14] Lihong Li, Wei Chu, John Langford, and Robert E. Schapire. A contextual-bandit approach to personalized news article recommendation. In Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on World Wide Web (WWW), pages 661?670, 2010. [15] Friedrich Pukelsheim. Optimal Design of Experiments. Classics in Applied Mathematics. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 2006. [16] Herbert Robbins. Some aspects of the sequential design of experiments. Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, pages 527?535, 1952. [17] Guillaume Sagnol. Approximation of a maximum-submodular-coverage problem involving spectral functions, with application to experimental designs. Discrete Appl. Math., 161(12):258?276, January 2013. [18] Marta Soare, Alessandro Lazaric, and R?mi Munos. Best-Arm Identi?cation in Linear Bandits. Technical report, http://arxiv.org/abs/1409.6110. [19] Kai Yu, Jinbo Bi, and Volker Tresp. Active learning via transductive experimental design. In Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 1081? 1088, 2006. 9
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Bounded Regret for Finite-Armed Structured Bandits R?emi Munos INRIA Lille, France1 remi.munos@inria.fr Tor Lattimore Department of Computing Science University of Alberta, Canada tlattimo@ualberta.ca Abstract We study a new type of K-armed bandit problem where the expected return of one arm may depend on the returns of other arms. We present a new algorithm for this general class of problems and show that under certain circumstances it is possible to achieve finite expected cumulative regret. We also give problemdependent lower bounds on the cumulative regret showing that at least in special cases the new algorithm is nearly optimal. 1 Introduction The multi-armed bandit problem is a reinforcement learning problem with K actions. At each timestep a learner must choose an action i after which it receives a reward distributed with mean ?i . The goal is to maximise the cumulative reward. This is perhaps the simplest setting in which the wellknown exploration/exploitation dilemma becomes apparent, with a learner being forced to choose between exploring arms about which she has little information, and exploiting by choosing the arm that currently appears optimal. (a) (b) (c) 1 We consider a general class of Karmed bandit problems where the expected return of each arm may be de- ? 0 pendent on other arms. This model has already been considered when the ?1 ? dependencies are linear [18] and also ?1 0 1 ?1 0 1 ?1 0 1 in the general setting studied here Figure 1: Examples [12, 1]. Let ? 3 ?? be an arbitrary parameter space and define the expected return of arm i by ?i (?? ) ? R. The learner is permitted to know the functions ?1 ? ? ? ?K , but not the true parameter ?? . The unknown parameter ?? determines the mean reward for each arm. The performance of a learner is measured by the (expected) cumulative regret, which is the difference between the expected return of P the optimal policy and the n (expected) return of the learner?s policy. Rn := n maxi?1???K ?i (?? ) ? t=1 ?It (?? ) where It is the arm chosen at time-step t. A motivating example is as follows. Suppose a long-running company must decide each week whether or not to purchase some new form of advertising with unknown expected returns. The problem may be formulated using the new setting by letting K = 2 and ? = [??, ?]. We assume the base-line performance without purchasing the advertising is known and so define ?1 (?) = 0 for all ?. The expected return of choosing to advertise is ?2 (?) = ? (see Figure (b) above). Our main contribution is a new algorithm based on UCB [6] for the structured bandit problem with strong problem-dependent guarantees on the regret. The key improvement over UCB is that the new algorithm enjoys finite regret in many cases while UCB suffers logarithmic regret unless all arms have the same return. For example, in (a) and (c) above we show that finite regret is possible for all 1 Current affiliation: Google DeepMind. 1 ?? , while in the advertising problem finite regret is attainable if ?? ? 0. The improved algorithm exploits the known structure and so avoids the famous negative results by Lai and Robbins [17]. One insight from this work is that knowing the return of the optimal arm and a bound on the minimum gap is not the only information that leads to the possibility of finite regret. In the examples given above neither quantity is known, but the assumed structure is nevertheless sufficient for finite regret. Despite the enormous literature on bandits, as far as we are aware this is the first time this setting has been considered with the aim of achieving finite regret. There has been substantial work on exploiting various kinds of structure to reduce an otherwise impossible problem to one where sublinear (or even logarithmic) regret is possible [19, 4, 10, and references therein], but the focus is usually on efficiently dealing with large action spaces rather than sub-logarithmic/finite regret. The most comparable previous work studies the case where both the return of the best arm and a bound on the minimum gap between the best arm and some sub-optimal arm is known [11, 9], which extended the permutation bandits studied by Lai and Robbins [16] and more general results by the same authors [15]. Also relevant is the paper by Agrawal et. al. [1], which studied a similar setting, but where ? was finite. Graves and Lai [12] extended the aforementioned contribution to continuous parameter spaces (and also to MDPs). Their work differs from ours in a number of ways. Most notably, their objective is to compute exactly the asymptotically optimal regret in the case where finite regret is not possible. In the case where finite regret is possible they prove only that the optimal regret is sub-logarithmic, and do not present any explicit bounds on the actual regret. Aside from this the results depend on the parameter space being a metric space and they assume that the optimal policy is locally constant about the true parameter. 2 Notation General. Most of our notation is common with [8]. The indicator function is denoted by 1{expr} and is 1 if expr is true and 0 otherwise. We use log for the natural logarithm. Logical and/or are denoted by ? and ? respectively. Define function ?(x) = min {y ? N : z ? x log z, ?z ? y}, which satisfies log ?(x) ? O(log x). In fact, limx?? log(?(x))/ log(x) = 1. Bandits. Let ? be a set. A K-armed structured bandit is characterised by a set of functions ?k : ? ? R where ?k (?) is the expected return of arm k ? A := {1, ? ? ? , K} given unknown parameter ?. We define the mean of the optimal arm by the function ?? : ? ? R with ?? (?) := maxi ?i (?). The true unknown parameter that determines the means is ?? ? ?. The best arm is i? := arg maxi ?i (?? ). The arm chosen at time-step t is denoted by It while Xi,s is the sth reward obtained when sampling from arm i. We denote the number of times arm i has been chosen at time-step t by Ti (t). The empiric estimate of the mean of arm i based on the first s samples is ? ?i,s . We define the gap between the means of the best arm and arm i by ?i := ?? (?? ) ? ?i (?? ). The set of sub-optimal arms is A0 := {i ? A : ?i > 0}. The minimum gap is ?min := mini?A0 ?i while the maximum gap is ?max := maxi?A ?i . The cumulative regret is defined n n n X X X Rn := ?? (?? ) ? ?It = ?It t=1 t=1 t=1 Note quantities like ?i and i? depend on ?? , which is omitted from the notation. As is rather common we assume that the returns are sub-gaussian, which means that if X is the return sampled from some arm, then ln E exp(?(X ? EX)) ? ?2 ? 2 /2. As usual we assume that ? 2 is known and does not depend Pn on the arm. If X1 ? ? ? Xn are sampled independently from some arm with mean ? and Sn = t=1 Xt , then the following maximal concentration inequality is well-known.     ?2 P max |St ? t?| ? ? ? 2 exp ? . 1?t?n 2n? 2  2  ? n A straight-forward corollary is that P {|? ?i,n ? ?i | ? ?} ? 2 exp ? 2 . 2? It is an important point that ? is completely arbitrary. The classic multi-armed bandit can be obtained by setting ? = RK and ?k (?) = ?k , which removes all dependencies between the arms. The setting where the optimal expected return is known to be zero and a bound on ?i ? ? is known can be regained by choosing ? = (??, ??]K ? {1, ? ? ? , K} and ?k (?1 , ? ? ? , ?K , i) = ?k 1{k 6= i}. We do not demand that ?k : ? ? R be continuous, or even that ? be endowed with a topology. 2 3 Structured UCB We propose a new algorithm called UCB-S that is a straight-forward modification of UCB [6], but where the known structure of the problem is exploited. At each time-step it constructs a confidence ? t ? ? is constructed, which contains interval about the mean of each arm. From this a subspace ? ? t. the true parameter ? with high probability. The algorithm takes the optimistic action over all ? ? ? Algorithm 1 UCB-S 1: Input: functions ?1 , ? ? ? , ?k : ? ? [0, 1] 2: for t ? 1, . . . , ? do ( s ? ?? ?i,Ti (t?1) < ?? : ?i, ?i (?) 3: ?t ? Define confidence set ? 4: 5: 6: 7: 8: ? t = ? then if ? Choose arm arbitrarily else ? Optimistic arm is i ? arg maxi sup?? ? ? ? t ?i (?) Choose arm i ?? 2 log t Ti (t ? 1) ) ? t = ? does not affect the regret bounds in this paper. In Remark 1. The choice of arm when ? practice, it is possible to simply increase t without taking an action, but this complicates the analysis. In many cases the true parameter ?? is never identified in the sense that we do not expect that ? t ? {?? }. The computational complexity of UCB-S depends on the difficulty of computing ? ?t ? and computing the optimistic arm within this set. This is efficient in simple cases, like when ?k is piecewise linear, but may be intractable for complex functions. 4 Theorems We present two main theorems bounding the regret of the UCB-S algorithm. The first is for arbitrary ?? , which leads to a logarithmic bound on the regret comparable to that obtained for UCB by [6]. The analysis is slightly different because UCB-S maintains upper and lower confidence bounds and selects its actions optimistically from the model class, rather than by maximising the upper confidence bound as UCB does. Theorem 2. If ? > 2 and ? ? ?, then the algorithm UCB-S suffers an expected regret of at most ERn ? 2?max K(? ? 1) X 8?? 2 log n X + + ?i ??2 ?i 0 i i?A If the samples from the optimal arm are sufficient to learn the optimal action, then finite regret is possible. In Section 6 we give something of a converse by showing that if knowing the mean of the optimal arm is insufficient to act optimally, then logarithmic regret is unavoidable. Theorem 3. Let ? = 4 and assume there exists an ? > 0 such that (?? ? ?) |?i? (?? ) ? ?i? (?)| < ? =? ?i 6= i? , ?i? (?) > ?i (?).  X  32? 2 log ? ? ?max K 3 + ?i + 3?max K + , Then ERn ? ?i ?? 0 i?A  2   2  8? ?K 8? ?K with ? ? := max ? , ? . ?2 ?2min Remark 4. For small ? and large n the expected regret looks like ERn ? O (for small n the regret is, of course, even smaller). (1) K X log i=1 1 ? ! ?i The explanation of the bound is as follows. If at some time-step t it holds that all confidence intervals contain the truth and the width of the confidence interval about i? drops below ?, then by ? t . In this case UCB-S the condition in Equation (1) it holds that i? is the optimistic arm within ? 3 suffers no regret at this time-step. Since the number of samples of each sub-optimal arm grows at most logarithmically by the proof of Theorem 2, the number of samples of the best arm must grow linearly. Therefore the number of time-steps before best arm has been pulled O(??2 ) times is also O(??2 ). After this point the algorithm suffers only a constant cumulative penalty for the possibility that the confidence intervals do not contain the truth, which is finite for suitably chosen values of ?. Note that Agrawal et. al. [1] had essentially the same condition to achieve finite regret as (1), but specified to the case where ? is finite. An interesting question is raised by comparing the bound in Theorem 3 to those given by Bubeck et. al. [11] where if the expected return of the best arm is known and ? is a known bound on the minimum gap, then a regret bound of  !! X log 2?i  1 ? O (2) 1 + log log ?i ? 0 i?A is achieved. If ? is close to ?i , then this bound is an improvement over the bound given by Theorem 3, although our theorem P is more general. The improved UCB algorithm [7] enjoys a bound on the expected regret of O( i?A0 ?1i log n?2i ). If we follow the same reasoning as above we obtain a bound comparable to (2). Unfortunately though, the extension of the improved UCB algorithm to the structured setting is rather challenging with the main obstruction being the extreme growth of the phases used by improved UCB. Refining the phases leads to super-logarithmic regret, a problem we ultimately failed to resolve. Nevertheless we feel that there is some hope of obtaining a bound like (2) in this setting. Before the proofs of Theorems 2 and 3 we give some example structured bandits and indicate the regions where the conditions for Theorem 3 are (not) met. Areas where Theorem 3 can be applied to obtain finite regret are unshaded while those with logarithmic regret are shaded. (a) 1 (b) (c) Key: ?1 ?2 ?3 ? 0 ?1 ?1 0 (d) 1 ?1 0 (e) 1 ?1 0 ?1 0 1 ?1 0 1 ?1 1 2 1 ? 1 (f) a hidden message ? 0 ?1 3 4 5 6 ? Figure 2: Examples (a) The conditions for Theorem 3 are met for all ? 6= 0, but for ? = 0 the regret strictly vanishes for all policies, which means that the regret is bounded by ERn ? O(1{?? 6= 0} |?1? | log |?1? | ). (b) Action 2 is uninformative and not globally optimal so Theorem 3 does not apply for ? < 1/2 where this action is optimal. For ? > 0 the optimal action is 1, when the conditions are met and finite regret is again achieved.   log ?1? log n ERn ? O 1{?? < 0} ? + 1{?? > 0} . |? | ?? (c) The conditions for Theorem 3 are again met for all non-zero ?? , which leads as in (a) to a regret of ERn ? O(1{?? 6= 0} |?1? | log |?1? | ). Examples (d) and (e) illustrate the potential complexity of the regions in which finite regret is possible. Note especially that in (e) the regret for ?? = 12 is logarithmic in the horizon, but finite for ?? arbitrarily close. Example (f) is a permutation bandit with 3 arms where it can be clearly seen that the conditions of Theorem 3 are satisfied. 4 5 Proof of Theorems 2 and 3 We start by bounding the probability that some mean does not lie inside the confidence set. Lemma 5. P {Ft = 1} ? 2Kt exp(?? log(t)) where s ( ) 2?? 2 log t Ft = 1 ?i : |? ?i,Ti (t?1) ? ?i | ? . Ti (t ? 1) Proof. We use the concentration guarantees: s ) ( 2 log t 2?? (a) ? P {Ft = 1} = P ?i : ?i (? ) ? ? ?i,Ti (t?1) ? Ti (t ? 1) s ) ( K (b) X 2?? 2 log t ? ?i,Ti (t?1) ? P ?i (?? ) ? ? Ti (t ? 1) i=1 ( ) r K X t K t (c) X 2?? 2 log t (d) X X (e) ? ? P |?i (? ) ? ? ?i,s | ? ? 2 exp(?? log t) = 2Kt1?? s i=1 s=1 i=1 s=1 where (a) follows from the definition of Ft . (b) by the union bound. (c) also follows from the union bound and is the standard trick to deal with the random variable Ti (t ? 1). (d) follows from the concentration inequalities for sub-gaussian random variables. (e) is trivial. Proof of Theorem 2. Let i be an arm with ?i > 0 and suppose that It = i. Then either Ft is true or  2  8? ? log n Ti (t ? 1) < =: ui (n) (3) ?2i ? t . Suppose Note that if Ft does not hold then the true parameter lies within the confidence set, ?? ? ? on the contrary that Ft and (3) are both false. s (a) (c) 2? 2 ? log t (b) ? ? ?? (?? ) = ?i (?? ) + ?i > ?i + ? ?i,Ti (t?1) ? max ?i? (?) ? ? ?t Ti (t ? 1) ?? s (d) 2?? 2 log t (e) ? ? ? ?i,Ti (t?1) + ? max ?i (?), ? ? ?t Ti (t ? 1) ?? ? t . (b) is the definition of the gap. (c) since Ft is false. (d) is true where (a) follows since ?? ? ? because (3) is false. Therefore arm i is not taken. We now bound the expected number of times that arm i is played within the first n time-steps by (a) ETi (n) = E n X (b) 1{It = i} ? ui (n) + E t=1 n X 1{It = i ? (3) is false} t=ui +1 n X (c) ? ui (n) + E 1{Ft = 1 ? It = i} t=ui +1 where (a) follows from the linearity of expectation and definition of Ti (n). (b) by Equation (3) and the definition of ui (n) and expectation. (c) is true by recalling that playing arm i at time-step t implies that either Ft or (3) must be true. Therefore ! n n X X X X ERn ? ?i ui (n) + E 1{Ft = 1 ? It = i} ? ?i ui (n) + ?max E 1{Ft = 1} i?A0 i?A0 t=ui +1 t=1 (4) Bounding the second summation E n X t=1 (a) 1{Ft = 1} = n X (b) P {Ft = 1} ? t=1 n X t=1 5 (c) 2Kt1?? ? 2K(? ? 1) ??2 where (a) follows by exchanging the expectation and sum and because the expectation of an indicator function can be written as the probability of the event. (b) by Lemma 5 and (c) is trivial. Substituting into (4) leads to ERn ? 2?max K(? ? 1) X 8?? 2 log n X + + ?i . ??2 ?i 0 i i?A Before the proof of Theorem 3 we need a high-probability bound on the number of times arm i is pulled, which is proven along the lines of similar results by [5]. Lemma 6. Let i ? A0 be some sub-optimal arm. If z > ui (n), then P {Ti (n) > z} ? 2Kz 2?? . ??2 Proof. As in the proof of Theorem 2, if t ? n and Ft is false and Ti (t ? 1) > ui (n) ? ui (t), then arm i is not chosen. Therefore Z n n n X (a) X (b) (c) 2Kz 2?? 1?? P {Ti (n) > z} ? P {Ft = 1} ? 2Kt ? 2K t1?? dt ? ??2 z t=z+1 t=z+1 where (a) follows from Lemma 5 and (b) and (c) are trivial. Lemma 7. Assume the conditions of Theorem 3 and additionally that Ti? (t ? 1) ? Ft is false. Then It = i? . l 8?? 2 log t ?2 m and ? t we have: Proof. Since Ft is false, for ?? ? ? (a) (b) s ? ? ?i? (?? )| ? |?i? (?) ? ?? |?i? (?) ?i? ,Ti (t?1) | + |? ?i? ,Ti (t?1) ? ?i? (?? )| < 2 2? 2 ? log t (c) ?? Ti? (t ? 1) where (a) is the triangle inequality. (b) follows by the definition of the confidence interval and ?t because Ft is false. (c) by the assumed lower bound on Ti? (t ? 1). Therefore by (1), for all ?? ? ? ? t , which means that ? ? t 6= ?. it holds that the best arm is i? . Finally, since Ft is false, ?? ? ? Therefore It = i? as required. Proof of Theorem 3. Let ? ? be some constant to be chosen later. Then the regret may be written as ? ERn ? E ? X K X ?i 1{It = i} + ?max E n X 1{It 6= i? } . (5) t=? ? +1 t=1 i=1 The first summation is bounded as in the proof of Theorem 2 by ? E ? X X ?i 1{It = i} ? X i?A0 t=1 i?A 8?? 2 log ? ? ?i + ?i ?  + We now bound the second sum in (5) and choose ? ? . By Lemma 6, if ? X P {Ft = 1} . n K > ui (n), then  ??2 n no 2K K P Ti (n) > ? . K ??2 n n  2   2 o ?K Suppose t ? ? ? := max ? 8??2?K , ? 8? . Then Kt > ui (t) for all i 6= i? and ?2 min 2 8? ? log t . ?2 i? (7) t K ? By the union bound 8? 2 ? log t P T (t) < ?2  (6) t=1  (a)      ??2 t (b) t (c) 2K 2 K ? ? P Ti (t) < ? P ?i : Ti (t) > < K K ??2 t (8) 6 t K 8? 2 ? log t ?2 where (a) is true since ? 8? 2 ? log t . ?2 PK (b) since i=1 Ti (t) = t. (c) by the union bound and (7). and Ft is false, then the chosen arm is i? . Therefore   n n n X X X 8? 2 ? log t E 1{It 6= i? } ? P {Ft = 1} + P Ti (t ? 1) < ?2 t=? ? +1 t=? ? +1 t=? ? +1  ??2 n n (a) X 2K 2 X K ? P {Ft = 1} + ? ? 2 t=?? +1 t t=? ? +1  ??3 n (b) X K 2K 2 ? P {Ft = 1} + ? (? ? 2)(? ? 3) ? t=? ? +1 Now if Ti (t) ? (9) where (a) follows from (8) and (b) by straight-forward calculus. Therefore by combining (5), (6) and (9) we obtain  2   ??3 n X X 8? ? log ? ? 2?max K 2 K ERn ? ?i + + ? P {Ft = 1} max ?2i (? ? 2)(? ? 3) ? ? t=1 i:?i >0   ??3  2 X 2?max K 2 K 8? ? log ? ? 2?max K(? ? 1) ? ?i + + ?2i (? ? 2)(? ? 3) ? ? ??2 i:?i >0 Setting ? = 4 leads to ERn ? K  X 32? 2 log ? ? ?i i=1 6  + ?i + 3?max K + ?max K 3 . ?? Lower Bounds and Ambiguous Examples We prove lower bounds for two illustrative examples of structured bandits. Some previous work is also relevant. The famous paper by Lai and Robbins [17] shows that the bound of Theorem 2 cannot in general be greatly improved. Many of the techniques here are borrowed from Bubeck et. al. [11]. Given a fixed algorithm and varying ? we denote the regret and expectation by Rn (?) and E? respectively. Returns are assumed to be sampled from a normal distribution with unit variance, so that ? 2 = 1. The proofs of the following theorems may be found in the supplementary material. (a) 1 (b) (d) Key: ?1 ?2 ? ? 0 ?1 (c) ? ?1 0 1 ?1 0 1 ?1 0 1 ?1 0 1 a hidden message Figure 3: Counter-examples Theorem 8. Given the structured bandit depicted in Figure 3.(a) or Figure 2.(c), then for all ? > 0 1 and all algorithms the regret satisfies max {E?? Rn (??), E? Rn (?)} ? 8? for sufficiently large n. Theorem 9. Let ?, {?1 , ?2 } be a structured bandit where returns are sampled from a normal distribution with unit variance. Assume there exists a pair ?1 , ?2 ? ? and constant ? > 0 such that ?1 (?1 ) = ?1 (?2 ) and ?1 (?1 ) ? ?2 (?1 ) + ? and ?2 (?2 ) ? ?1 (?2 ) + ?. Then the following hold: (1) E?1 Rn (?1 ) ? 1+log 2n?2 8? (2) E?2 Rn (?2 ) ? n? 2 ? 12 E?2 Rn (?2 ) exp (?4E?1 Rn (?1 )?) ? E?1 Rn (?1 ) A natural example where the conditions are satisfied is depicted in Figure 3.(b) and by choosing ?1 = 1 1 ?1, ?2 = 1. We know from Theorem 3 that UCB-S enjoys finite regret of E?2 Rn (?2 ) ? O( ? log ? ) 1 and logarithmic regret E?1 Rn (?1 ) ? O( ? log n). Part 1 of Theorem 9 shows that if we demand finite regret E?2 Rn (?2 ) ? O(1), then the regret E?1 Rn (?1 ) is necessarily logarithmic. On the other 7 hand, part 2 shows that if we demand E?1 Rn (?1 ) ? o(log(n)), then the regret E?2 Rn (?2 ) ? ?(n). Therefore the trade-off made by UCB-S essentially cannot be improved. Discussion of Figure 3.(c/d). In both examples there is an ambiguous region for which the lower bound (Theorem 9) does not show that logarithmic regret is unavoidable, but where Theorem 3 cannot be applied to show that UCB-S achieves finite regret. We managed to show that finite regret is possible in both cases by using a different algorithm. For (c) we could construct a carefully tuned algorithm for which the regret was at most O(1) if ? ? 0 and O( ?1 log log ?1 ) otherwise. This result contradicts a claim by Bubeck et. al. [11, Thm. 8]. Additional discussion of the ambiguous case in general, as well as this specific example, may be found in the supplementary material. One observation is that unbridled optimism is the cause of the failure of UCB-S in these cases. This is illustrated by Figure 3.(d) with ? ? 0. No matter how narrow the confidence interval about ?1 , if the second action has not been taken sufficiently often, then there will still be some belief that ? > 0 is possible where the second action is optimistic, which leads to logarithmic regret. Adapting the algorithm to be slightly risk averse solves this problem. 7 Experiments 0 ?0.2 ?0.1 0 0.1 ? K = 2, ?1 (?) = ?, ?2 (?) = ??, n = 50 000 (see Figure 2.(a)) 0.2 ? ? Rn (?) E 100 200 100 0 5e4 1e5 n K = 2, ?1 (?) = ?, ?2 (?) = ??, ? = 0.04 (see Figure 2.(a)) The results show that Algorithm 1 typically out-performs regular UCB. The exception is the top right experiment where UCB performs slightly better for ? < 0. This is not surprising, since in this case the structured version of UCB cannot exploit the additional structure and suffers due to worse constant factors. On the other hand, if ? > 0, then UCB endures logarithmic regret and performs significantly worse than its structured counterpart. The superiority of Algorithm 1 would be accentuated in the top left and bottom right experiments by increasing the horizon. 8 400 200 0 ?1 0 0 1 ? K = 2, ?1 (?) = 0, ?2 (?) = ?, n = 50 000 (see Figure 2.(b)) ? ? Rn (?) E 200 ? ? Rn (?) E ? ? Rn (?) E We tested Algorithm 1 on a selection of structured bandits depicted in Figure 2 and compared to UCB [6, 8]. Rewards were sampled from normal distributions with unit variances. For UCB we chose ? = 2, while we used the theoretically justified ? = 4 for Algorithm 1. All code is available in the supplementary material. Each data-point is the average of 500 independent samples with the blue crosses and red squares indicating the regret of UCB-S and UCB respectively. 150 100 50 0 ?1 0 1 ? K = 2, ?1 (?) = ?1{? > 0}, ?2 (?) = ??1{? < 0}, n = 50 000 (see Figure 2.(c)) Conclusion The limitation of the new approach is that the proof techniques and algorithm are most suited to the case where the number of actions is relatively small. Generalising the techniques to large action spaces is therefore an important open problem. There is still a small gap between the upper and lower bounds, and the lower bounds have only been proven for special examples. Proving a general problem-dependent lower bound is an interesting question, but probably extremely challenging given the flexibility of the setting. We are also curious to know if there exist problems for which the optimal regret is somewhere between finite and logarithmic. Another question is that of how to define Thompson sampling for structured bandits. Thompson sampling has recently attracted a great deal of attention [13, 2, 14, 3, 9], but so far we are unable even to define an algorithm resembling Thompson sampling for the general structured bandit problem. Acknowledgements. Tor Lattimore was supported by the Google Australia Fellowship for Machine Learning and the Alberta Innovates Technology Futures, NSERC. The majority of this work was completed while R?emi Munos was visiting Microsoft Research, New England. This research was partially supported by the European Community?s Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreements no. 270327 (project CompLACS). 8 References [1] Rajeev Agrawal, Demosthenis Teneketzis, and Venkatachalam Anantharam. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation schemes for controlled markov chains: Finite parameter space. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 34(12):1249?1259, 1989. [2] Shipra Agrawal and Navin Goyal. Analysis of Thompson sampling for the multi-armed bandit problem. In In Proceedings of the 25th Annual Conference on Learning Theory, 2012. [3] Shipra Agrawal and Navin Goyal. Further optimal regret bounds for thompson sampling. In In Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, volume 31, pages 99?107, 2013. [4] Kareem Amin, Michael Kearns, and Umar Syed. Bandits, query learning, and the haystack dimension. Journal of Machine Learning Research-Proceedings Track, 19:87?106, 2011. [5] Jean-Yves Audibert, R?emi Munos, and Csaba Szepesv?ari. Variance estimates and exploration function in multi-armed bandit. Technical report, research report 07-31, Certis-Ecole des Ponts, 2007. [6] Peter Auer, Nicol?o Cesa-Bianchi, and Paul Fischer. Finite-time analysis of the multiarmed bandit problem. Machine Learning, 47:235?256, 2002. [7] Peter Auer and Ronald Ortner. UCB revisited: Improved regret bounds for the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem. Periodica Mathematica Hungarica, 61(1-2):55?65, 2010. [8] S?ebastien Bubeck and Nicol`o Cesa-Bianchi. Regret Analysis of Stochastic and Nonstochastic Multi-armed Bandit Problems. Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning. Now Publishers Incorporated, 2012. [9] S?ebastien Bubeck and Che-Yu Liu. Prior-free and prior-dependent regret bounds for thompson sampling. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, pages 638?646, 2013. [10] S?ebastien Bubeck, R?emi Munos, Gilles Stoltz, and Csaba Szepesv?ari. Online optimization in X-armed bandits. In NIPS, pages 201?208, 2008. [11] S?ebastien Bubeck, Vianney Perchet, and Philippe Rigollet. Bounded regret in stochastic multiarmed bandits. In In Proceedings of the 26th Annual Conference on Learning Theory, 2013. [12] Todd L Graves and Tze Leung Lai. Asymptotically efficient adaptive choice of control laws in controlled Markov chains. SIAM journal on control and optimization, 35(3):715?743, 1997. [13] Emilie Kaufmann, Nathaniel Korda, and R?emi Munos. Thompson sampling: An asymptotically optimal finite-time analysis. In Algorithmic Learning Theory, pages 199?213. Springer, 2012. [14] Nathaniel Korda, Emilie Kaufmann, and R?emi Munos. Thompson sampling for 1-dimensional exponential family bandits. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, pages 1448?1456, 2013. 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Efficient learning by implicit exploration in bandit problems with side observations Tom?as? Koc?ak Gergely Neu Michal Valko R?emi Munos? SequeL team, INRIA Lille ? Nord Europe, France {tomas.kocak,gergely.neu,michal.valko,remi.munos}@inria.fr Abstract We consider online learning problems under a a partial observability model capturing situations where the information conveyed to the learner is between full information and bandit feedback. In the simplest variant, we assume that in addition to its own loss, the learner also gets to observe losses of some other actions. The revealed losses depend on the learner?s action and a directed observation system chosen by the environment. For this setting, we propose the first algorithm that enjoys near-optimal regret guarantees without having to know the observation system before selecting its actions. Along similar lines, we also define a new partial information setting that models online combinatorial optimization problems where the feedback received by the learner is between semi-bandit and full feedback. As the predictions of our first algorithm cannot be always computed efficiently in this setting, we propose another algorithm with similar properties and with the benefit of always being computationally efficient, at the price of a slightly more complicated tuning mechanism. Both algorithms rely on a novel exploration strategy called implicit exploration, which is shown to be more efficient both computationally and information-theoretically than previously studied exploration strategies for the problem. 1 Introduction Consider the problem of sequentially recommending content for a set of users. In each period of this online decision problem, we have to assign content from a news feed to each of our subscribers so as to maximize clickthrough. We assume that this assignment needs to be done well in advance, so that we only observe the actual content after the assignment was made and the user had the opportunity to click. While we can easily formalize the above problem in the classical multi-armed bandit framework [3], notice that we will be throwing out important information if we do so! The additional information in this problem comes from the fact that several news feeds can refer to the same content, giving us the opportunity to infer clickthroughs for a number of assignments that we did not actually make. For example, consider the situation shown on Figure 1a. In this simple example, we want to suggest one out of three news feeds to each user, that is, we want to choose a matching on the graph shown on Figure 1a which covers the users. Assume that news feeds 2 and 3 refer to the same content, so whenever we assign news feed 2 or 3 to any of the users, we learn the value of both of these assignments. The relations between these assignments can be described by a graph structure (shown on Figure 1b), where nodes represent user-news feed assignments, and edges mean that the corresponding assignments reveal the clickthroughs of each other. For a more compact representation, we can group the nodes by the users, and rephrase our task as having to choose one node from each group. Besides its own reward, each selected node reveals the rewards assigned to all their neighbors. ? Current affiliation: Google DeepMind 1 user1 user2 ,2 e1, 3 e1,1 e 2,1 2 e 2, content2 e1,2 e1,3 e2,3 e 1,1 e1 user1 user2 news f eed1 content1 news f eed2 news f eed3 e2,1 content2 e2,2 e2,3 content2 Figure 1a: Users and news feeds. The thick edges represent one potential matching of users to feeds, grouped news feeds show the same content. Figure 1b: Users and news feeds. Connected feeds mutually reveal each others clickthroughs. The problem described above fits into the framework of online combinatorial optimization where in each round, a learner selects one of a very large number of available actions so as to minimize the losses associated with its sequence of decisions. Various instances of this problem have been widely studied in recent years under different feedback assumptions [7, 2, 8], notably including the so-called full-information [13] and semi-bandit [2, 16] settings. Using the example in Figure 1a, assuming full information means that clickthroughs are observable for all assignments, whereas assuming semibandit feedback, clickthroughs are only observable on the actually realized assignments. While it is unrealistic to assume full feedback in this setting, assuming semi-bandit feedback is far too restrictive in our example. Similar situations arise in other practical problems such as packet routing in computer networks where we may have additional information on the delays in the network besides the delays of our own packets. In this paper, we generalize the partial observability model first proposed by Mannor and Shamir [15] and later revisited by Alon et al. [1] to accommodate the feedback settings situated between the full-information and the semi-bandit schemes. Formally, we consider a sequential decision making problem where in each time step t the (potentially adversarial) environment assigns a loss value to each out of d components, and generates an observation system whose role will be clarified soon. Obliviously of the environment?s choices, the learner chooses an action Vt from a fixed action set S ? {0, 1}d represented by a binary vector with at most m nonzero components, and incurs the sum of losses associated with the nonzero components of Vt . At the end of the round, the learner observes the individual losses along the chosen components and some additional feedback based on its action and the observation system. We represent this observation system by a directed observability graph with d nodes, with an edge connecting i ? j if and only if the loss associated with j is revealed to the learner whenever Vt,i = 1. The goal of the learner is to minimize its total loss obtained over T repetitions of the above procedure. The two most well-studied variants of this general framework are the multi-armed bandit problem [3] where each action consists of a single component and the observability graph is a graph without edges, and the problem of prediction with expert advice [17, 14, 5] where each action consists of exactly one component and the observability graph is complete. In the true combinatorial setting where m > 1, the empty and complete graphs correspond to the semi-bandit and full-information settings respectively. Our model directly extends the model of Alon et al. [1], whose setup coincides with m = 1 in our framework. Alon et al. themselves were motivated by the work of Mannor and Shamir [15], who considered undirected observability systems where actions mutually uncover each other?s losses. Mannor ? and Shamir proposed an algorithm based on linear programming that achieves a regret of ? O( cT ), where c is the number of cliques into which the graph can be ? split. Later, Alon et al. [1] proposed an algorithm called E XP 3-SET that guarantees a regret of O( ?T log d), where ? is an upper bound on the independence numbers of the observability graphs assigned by the environment. In particular, this bound is tighter than the bound of Mannor and Shamir since ? ? c for any graph. Furthermore, E XP 3-SET is much more efficient than the algorithm of Mannor and Shamir as it only requires running the E XP 3 algorithm of Auer et al. [3] on the decision set, which runs in time linear in d. Alon et al. [1] also extend the model of Mannor and Shamir in allowing the observability graph to be directed. For this setting, they offer another algorithm called E XP 3-DOM with similar guarantees, although with the serious drawback that it requires access to the observation system before choosing its actions. This assumption poses severe limitations to the practical applicability of E XP 3-DOM, which also needs to solve a sequence of set cover problems as a subroutine. 2 In the present paper, we offer two computationally and information-theoretically efficient algorithms for bandit problems with directed observation systems. Both of our algorithms circumvent the costly exploration phase required by E XP 3-DOM by a trick that we will refer to IX as in Implicit eXploration. Accordingly, we name our algorithms E XP 3-IX and FPL-IX, which are variants of the well-known E XP 3 [3] and FPL [12] algorithms enhanced with implicit exploration. Our first algorithm E XP 3-IX is specifically designed1 to work in the setting of Alon et al. [1] with m = 1 and does not need to solve any set cover problems or have any sort of prior knowledge concerning the observation systems chosen by the adversary.2 FPL-IX, on the other hand, does need either to solve set cover problems or have a prior upper bound on the independence numbers of the observability graphs, but can be computed efficiently for a wide range of true combinatorial problems with m > 1. We note that our algorithms do not even need to know the number of rounds T and our regret bounds scale with the average independence number ? ? of the graphs played by the adversary rather than the largest of these numbers. They both employ adaptive learning rates and unlike E XP 3-DOM, they do not need to use a doubling trick to be anytime or to aggregate outputs of multiple algorithms to ? ? 3/2 ? optimally set their learning rates. Both algorithms achieve regret guarantees of O(m ? T ) in the ? ? ? ? T ) in the simple setting. combinatorial setting, which becomes O( Before diving into the main content, we give an important graph-theoretic statement that we will rely on when analyzing both of our algorithms. The lemma is a generalized version of Lemma 13 of Alon et al. [1] and its proof is given in Appendix A. Lemma 1. Let G be a directed graph with vertex set V = {1, . . . , d}. Let Ni? be the inneighborhood of node i, i.e., the set of nodes j such that (j ? i) ? G. Let ? be the independence Pd number of G and p1 ,. . . ,pd are numbers from [0, 1] such that i=1 pi ? m. Then d X i=1 where Pi = 2 P j?Ni?   mdd2 /ce + d ? 2m? log 1 + + 2m, 1 1 ? m pi + m Pi + c pi pj and c is a positive constant. Multi-armed bandit problems with side information In this section, we start by the simplest setting fitting into our framework, namely the multi-armed bandit problem with side observations. We provide intuition about the implicit exploration procedure behind our algorithms and describe E XP 3-IX, the most natural algorithm based on the IX trick. The problem we consider is defined as follows. In each round t = 1, 2, . . . , T , the environment assigns a loss vector `t ? [0, 1]d for d actions and also selects an observation system described by the directed graph Gt . Then, based on its previous observations (and likely some external source of randomness) the learner selects action It and subsequently incurs and observes loss `t,It . Furthermore, the learner also observes the losses `t,j for all j such that (It ? j) ? Gt , denoted by the indicator Ot,i . Let Ft?1 = ?(It?1 , . . . , I1 ) capture the interaction history up to time t. As usual in online settings [6], the performance is measured in terms of (total expected) regret, which is the difference between a total loss received and the total loss of the best single action chosen in hindsight, " T # X RT = max E (`t,It ? `t,i ) , i?[d] t=1 where the expectation integrates over the random choices made by the learning algorithm. Alon et al. [1] adapted the well-known E XP 3 algorithm of Auer et al. [3] for this precise problem. Their algorithm, E XP 3-DOM, works by maintaining a weight wt,i for each individual arm i ? [d] in each round, and selecting It according to the distribution wt,i + ??t,i , P [It = i |Ft?1 ] = (1 ? ?)pt,i + ??t,i = (1 ? ?) Pd j=1 wt,j 1 E XP 3-IX can also be efficiently implemented for some specific combinatorial decision sets even with m > 1, see, e.g., Cesa-Bianchi and Lugosi [7] for some examples. 2 However, it is still necessary to have access to the observability graph to construct low bias estimates of losses, but only after the action is selected. 3 where ? ? (0, 1) is parameter of the algorithm and ?t is an exploration distribution whose role we will shortly clarify. After each round, E XP 3-DOM defines the loss estimates `t,i `?t,i = 1{(It ?i)?Gt } where ot,i = E [Ot,i |Ft?1 ] = P [(It ? i) ? Gt |Ft?1 ] ot,i for each i ? [d]. These loss estimates are then used to update the weights for all i as ? wt+1,i = wt,i e?? `t,i . It is easy to see that the these loss estimates `?t,i are unbiased estimates of the true losses whenever pt,i > 0 holds for all i. This requirement along with another important technical issue justify the presence of the exploration distribution ?t . The key idea behind E XP 3-DOM is to compute a dominating set Dt ? [d] of the observability graph Gt in each round, and define ?t as the uniform distribution over Dt . This choice ensures that ot,i ? pt,i + ?/|Dt |, a crucial requirement for the analysis of [1]. In what follows, we propose an exploration scheme that does not need any fancy computations but, more importantly, works without any prior knowledge of the observability graphs. 2.1 Efficient learning by implicit exploration In this section, we propose the simplest exploration scheme imaginable, which consists of merely pretending to explore. Precisely, we simply sample our action It from the distribution defined as wt,i P [It = i |Ft?1 ] = pt,i = Pd , (1) j=1 wt,j without explicitly mixing with any exploration distribution. Our key trick is to define the loss estimates for all arms i as `t,i `?t,i = 1{(It ?i)?Gt } , ot,i + ?t where ?t > 0 is a parameter of our algorithm. It is easy to check that `?t,i is a biased estimate of `t,i . ? The nature of this bias,hhowever, is i very special. First, observe that `t,i is an optimistic estimate of ? `t,i in the sense that E `t,i |Ft?1 ? `t,i . That is, our bias always ensures that, on expectation, we underestimate the loss of any fixed arm i. Even more importantly, our loss estimates also satisfy " d #   d d X X X ot,i ? ?1 E pt,i `t,i Ft?1 = pt,i `t,i + pt,i `t,i ot,i + ?t i=1 i=1 i=1 (2) d d X X pt,i `t,i , = pt,i `t,i ? ?t o + ?t i=1 i=1 t,i that is, the bias of the estimated losses suffered by our algorithm is directly controlled by ?t . As we will see in the analysis, it is sufficient to control the bias of our own estimated performance as long as we can guarantee that the loss estimates associated with any fixed arm are optimistic?which is precisely what we have. Note that this slight modification ensures that the denominator of `?t,i is lower bounded by pt,i + ?t , which is a very similar property as the one achieved by the exploration scheme used by E XP 3-DOM. We call the above loss estimation method implicit exploration or IX, as it gives rise to the same effect as explicit exploration without actually having to implement any exploration policy. In fact, explicit and implicit explorations can both be regarded as two different approaches for bias-variance tradeoff: while explicit exploration biases the sampling distribution of It to reduce the variance of the loss estimates, implicit exploration achieves the same result by biasing the loss estimates themselves. From this point on, we take a somewhat more predictable course and define our algorithm E XP 3-IX as a variant of E XP 3 using the IX loss estimates. One of the twists is that E XP 3-IX is actually based on the adaptive learning-rate variant of E XP 3 proposed by Auer et al. [4], which avoids the necessity of prior knowledge of the observability graphs in order to set a proper learning rate. This algorithm b t?1,i = Pt?1 `?s,i and for all i ? [d] computing the weights as is defined by setting L s=1 wt,i = (1/d)e??t Lt?1,i . b These weights are then used to construct the sampling distribution of It as defined in (1). The resulting E XP 3-IX algorithm is shown as Algorithm 1. 4 2.2 Performance guarantees for E XP 3-IX Our analysis follows the footsteps of Auer et al. [3] and Gy?orfi and Ottucs?ak [9], who provide an improved analysis of the adaptive learningrate rule proposed by Auer et al. [4]. However, a technical subtlety will force us to proceed a little differently than these standard proofs: for achieving the tightest possible bounds and the most efficient algorithm, we need to tune our learning rates according to some random quantities that depend on the performance of E XP 3IX. In fact, the key quantities in our analysis are the terms Qt = d X i=1 Algorithm 1 E XP 3-IX 1: Input: Set of actions S = [d], 2: parameters ?t ? (0, 1), ?t > 0 for t ? [T ]. 3: for t = 1 to T do b t?1,i ) for i ? [d] 4: wt,i ? (1/d) exp (??t L 5: An adversary privately chooses losses `t,i 6: 7: 8: 9: 10: 11: for i ? [d] and generates a graph Gt Pd Wt ? i=1 wt,i pt,i ? wt,i /Wt Choose It ? pt = (pt,1 , . . . , pt,d ) Observe graph Gt ObservePpairs {i, `t,i } for (It ? i) ? Gt ot,i ? (j?i)?Gt pt,j for i ? [d] ` `?t,i ? t,i 1{(I ?i)?G } for i ? [d] 12: 13: end for pt,i , ot,i + ?t ot,i +?t t t which depend on the interaction history Ft?1 for all t. Our theorem below gives the performance guarantee for E XP 3-IX using a parameter setting adaptive to the values of Qt . A full proof of the theorem is given in the supplementary material. q Pt?1 Theorem 1. Setting ?t = ?t = (log d)/(d + s=1 Qs ) , the regret of E XP 3-IX satisfies "r #   PT d + t=1 Qt log d . RT ? 4E (3) Proof sketch. Following the proof of Lemma 1 in Gy?orfi and Ottucs?ak [9], we can prove that  d d  2  log W X log Wt+1 ?t X t ? ? pt,i `t,i + ? . pt,i `t,i ? 2 i=1 ?t ?t+1 i=1 (4) Taking conditional expectations, using Equation (2) and summing up both sides, we get    T X d T T   X X X log Wt log Wt+1 ?t + ?t Qt + E ? pt,i `t,i ? Ft?1 . 2 ?t ?t+1 t=1 i=1 t=1 t=1 Using Lemma 3.5 of Auer et al. [4] and plugging in ?t and ?t , this becomes r    d T X T  X X PT log Wt+1 log Wt pt,i `t,i ? 3 F d + t=1 Qt log d + ? E t?1 . ?t ?t+1 t=1 i=1 t=1 Taking expectations on both sides, the second term on the right hand side telescopes into       h i log W1 log WT +1 log wT +1,j log d ? T,j E ? ?E ? =E +E L ?1 ?T +1 ?T +1 ?T +1 for any j ? [d], giving the desired result as T X d X t=1 i=1 pt,i `t,i ? T X `t,j + 4E "r  d+ PT t=1  # Qt log d , t=1 where we used the definition of ?T and the optimistic property of the loss estimates. Setting m = 1 and c = ?t in Lemma 1, gives the following deterministic upper bound on each Qt . Lemma 2. For all t ? [T ],   d X pt,i dd2 /?t e + d Qt = ? 2?t log 1 + + 2. o + ?t ?t i=1 t,i 5 Combining Lemma 2 with Theorem 1 we prove our main result concerning the regret of E XP 3-IX. Corollary 1. The regret of E XP 3-IX satisfies r  PT d + 2 t=1 (Ht ?t + 1) log d, RT ? 4 where Ht = log 1 + 3 dd2 p td/ log de + d ?t ! = O(log(dT )). Combinatorial semi-bandit problems with side observations We now turn our attention to the setting of online combinatorial optimization (see [13, 7, 2]). In this variant of the online learning problem, the learner has access to a possibly huge action set d S ? {0, 1} where each action is represented by a binary vector v of dimensionality d. In what follows, we assume that kvk1 ? m holds for all v ? S and some 1 ? m  d, with the case m = 1 corresponding to the multi-armed bandit setting considered in the previous section. In each round t = 1, 2, . . . , T of the decision process, the learner picks an action Vt ? S and incurs a loss of VtT `t . At the end of the round, the learner receives some feedback based on its decision Vt and the loss vector `t . The regret of the learner is defined as " T # X T RT = max E (Vt ? v) `t . v?S t=1 Previous work has considered the following feedback schemes in the combinatorial setting: ? The full information scheme where the learner?gets to observe `t regardless of the chosen action. The minimax optimal regret of order m T log d here is achieved by C OMPONENT H EDGE algorithm of [13], while the?Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader (FPL) [12, 10] was shown to enjoy a regret of order m3/2 T log d by [16]. ? The semi-bandit scheme where the learner gets to observe the components `t,i of the loss vector where Vt,i = 1, that is, the losses along the components chosen by ? the learner at mdT log d) time t. As shown by [2], C OMPONENT H EDGE achieves a near-optimal O( ? regret guarantee, while [16] show that FPL enjoys a bound of O(m dT log d). ? The bandit scheme where the learner only observes its own loss VtT `t . There are currently no known efficient algorithms that get close to the minimax regret in this setting?the reader is referred to Audibert et al. [2] for an overview of recent results. In this section, we define a new feedback scheme situated between the semi-bandit and the fullinformation schemes. In particular, we assume that the learner gets to observe the losses of some other components not included in its own decision vector Vt . Similarly to the model of Alon et al. [1], the relation between the chosen action and the side observations are given by a directed observability Gt (see example in Figure 1). We refer to this feedback scheme as semi-bandit with side observations. While our theoretical results stated in the previous section continue to hold in this setting, combinatorial E XP 3-IX could rarely be implemented efficiently?we refer to [7, 13] for some positive examples. As one of the main concerns in this paper is computational efficiency, we take a different approach: we propose a variant of FPL that efficiently implements the idea of implicit exploration in combinatorial semi-bandit problems with side observations. 3.1 Implicit exploration by geometric resampling b t?1 = In each round t, FPL bases its decision on some estimate L Pt?1 Lt?1 = s=1 `s as follows:   b t?1 ? Zt . Vt = arg min v T ?t L Pt?1 ? s=1 `s of the total losses (5) v?S Here, ?t > 0 is a parameter of the algorithm and Zt is a perturbation vector with components drawn independently from an exponential distribution with unit expectation. The power of FPL lies in that it only requires an oracle that solves the (offline) optimization problem minv?S v T ` and thus 6 can be used to turn any efficient offline solver into an online optimization algorithm with strong guarantees. To define our algorithm precisely, we need to some further notation. We redefine Ft?1 to be ?(Vt?1 , . . . , V1 ), Ot,i to be the indicator of the observed component and let qt,i = E [Vt,i |Ft?1 ] and ot,i = E [Ot,i |Ft?1 ] . The most crucial point of our algorithm is the construction of our loss estimates. To implement the idea of implicit exploration by optimistic biasing, we apply a modified version of the geometric resampling method of Neu and Bart?ok [16] constructed as follows: Let Ot0 (1), Ot0 (2), . . . be independent copies3 of Ot and let Ut,i be geometrically distributed random variables for all i = [d] with parameter ?t . We let   0 Kt,i = min k : Ot,i (k) = 1 ? {Ut,i } (6) and define our loss-estimate vector `?t ? Rd with its i-th element as `?t,i = Kt,i Ot,i `t,i . (7) By definition, we have E [Kt,i |Ft?1 ] = 1/(ot,i + (1 ? ot,i )?t ), implying that our loss estimates are optimistic in the sense that they lower bound the losses in expectation: i h ot,i E `?t,i Ft?1 = `t,i ? `t,i . ot,i + (1 ? ot,i )?t Here we used the fact that Ot,i is independent of Kt,i and has expectation ot,i given Ft?1 . We call this algorithm Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader with Implicit eXploration (FPL-IX, Algorithm 2). Note that the geometric resampling procedure can be terminated as soon as Kt,i becomes welldefined for all i with Ot,i = 1. As noted by Neu and Bart?ok [16], this requires generating at most d copies of Ot on expectation. As each of these copies requires one access to the linear optimization oracle over S, we conclude that the expected running time of FPL-IX is at most d times that of the expected running time of the oracle. A high-probability guarantee of the running time can be obtained by observing that Ut,i ? log 1? /?t holds with probability at least 1 ? ? and thus we can  stop sampling after at most d log d? /?t steps with probability at least 1 ? ?. 3.2 Performance guarantees for FPL-IX The analysis presented in this section com- Algorithm 2 FPL-IX bines some techniques used by Kalai and Vem1: Input: Set of actions S, pala [12], Hutter and Poland [11], and Neu 2: parameters ?t ? (0, 1), ?t > 0 for t ? [T ]. and Bart?ok [16] for analyzing FPL-style learn- 3: for t = 1 to T do ers. Our proofs also heavily rely on some spe4: An adversary privately chooses losses `t,i cific properties of the IX loss estimate defined for all i ? [d] and generates a graph Gt in Equation 7. The most important difference 5: Draw Zt,i ? Exp(1) for  all i ? [d]  from the analysis presented in Section 2.2 is T b t?1 ? Zt 6: Vt ? arg minv?S v ?t L that now we are not able to use random learn7: Receive loss VtT `t ing rates as we cannot compute the values cor8: Observe graph Gt responding to Qt efficiently. In fact, these val9: Observe pairs {i, `t,i } for all i, such that ues are observable in the information-theoretic (j ? i) ? Gt and v(It )j = 1 sense, so we could prove bounds similar to TheCompute Kt,i for all i ? [d] using Eq. (6) orem 1 had we had access to infinite compu- 10: tational resources. As our focus in this paper 11: `?t,i ? Kt,i Ot,i `t,i is on computationally efficient algorithms, we 12: end for choose to pursue a different path. In particular, our learning rates will be tuned according to efficiently computable approximations ? et of the respective independence numbers ?t that satisfy ?t /C ? ? et ? ?t ? d for some C ? 1. For the sake of simplicity, we analyze the algorithm in the oblivious adversary model. The following theorem states the performance guarantee for FPL-IX in terms of the learning rates and random variables of the form d X qt,i e t (c) = . Q o +c i=1 t,i 3 Such independent copies can be simply generated by sampling independent copies of Vt using the FPL rule (5) and then computing Ot0 (k) using the observability Gt . Notice that this procedure requires no interaction between the learner and the environment, although each sample requires an oracle access. 7 Theorem 2. Assume ?t ? 1/2 for all t and ?1 ? ?2 ? ? ? ? ? ?T . The regret of FPL-IX satisfies  X   T T h i X m (log d + 1) ?t et e t (?t ) . RT ? + 4m + ?t E Q ?t E Q ?T 1 ? ?t t=1 t=1 Proof sketch. As usual for analyzing FPL methods [12, 11, 16], we first define a hypothetical learner e ? Z1 and has access to `?t on top of L b t?1 that uses a time-independent perturbation vector Z   bt ? Z e . Vet = arg min v T ?t L v?S Clearly, this learner is infeasible as it uses observations from the future. Also, observe that this learner does not actually interact with the environment and depends on the predictions made by the actual learner only through the loss estimates. By standard arguments, we can prove " T # T X m (log d + 1) . E Vet ? v `?t ? ?T t=1 Using the techniques of Neu and Bart?ok [16], we can relate the performance of Vt to that of Vet , which we can further upper bounded after a long and tedious calculation as       h i 2 ? T et Ft?1 . E (Vt ? Vet )T `?t Ft?1 ? ?t E Vet?1 `?t Ft?1 ? 4m?t E Q 1?? h i The result follows by observing that E v T `?t Ft?1 ? v T `t for any fixed v ? S by the optimistic property of the IX estimate and also from the fact that by the definition of the estimates we infer that h i i h T e t (?t ) . E Vet?1 `?t Ft?1 ? E [ VtT `t | Ft?1 ] ? ?t E Q The next lemma shows a suitable upper bound P for the last two terms in the bound of Theorem 2. It follows from observing that ot,i ? (1/m) j?{N ? ?{i}} qt,j and applying Lemma 1. t,i Lemma 3. For all t ? [T ] and any c ? (0, 1), e t (c) = Q d X i=1   qt,i mdd2 /ce + d ? 2m?t log 1 + + 2m. ot,i + c ?t We are now ready to state the main result of this section, which is obtained by combining Theorem 2, Lemma 3, and Lemma 3.5 of Auer et al. [4] applied to the following upper bound q q T T X X PT PT ?t ?t q q ? 2 ? C ? ? 2 d + C t=1 ?t . t t=1 Pt Pt?1 t=1 t=1 d + s=1 ? es s=1 ?s /C Corollary 2. Assume that for ? ? et ? ?t ? d for some C > 1, and assume r all t ? [T ], ?t /C  Pt?1  md > 4. Setting ?t = ?t = (log d + 1) / m d + s=1 ? es , the regret of FPL-IX satisfies RT ? Hm 3/2 r d+C  ? t=1 t (log d + 1), PT where H = O(log(mdT )). Conclusion We presented an efficient algorithm for learning with side observations based on implicit exploration. This technique gave rise to multitude of improvements. Remarkably, our algorithms no longer need to know the observation system before choosing the action unlike the method of [1]. Moreover, we extended the partial observability model of [15, 1] to accommodate problems with large and structured action sets and also gave an efficient algorithm for this setting. Acknowledgements The research presented in this paper was supported by French Ministry of Higher Education and Research, by European Community?s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no 270327 (CompLACS), and by FUI project Herm`es. 8 References [1] Alon, N., Cesa-Bianchi, N., Gentile, C., and Mansour, Y. (2013). From Bandits to Experts: A Tale of Domination and Independence. In Neural Information Processing Systems. [2] Audibert, J. Y., Bubeck, S., and Lugosi, G. (2014). Regret in Online Combinatorial Optimization. Mathematics of Operations Research, 39:31?45. [3] Auer, P., Cesa-Bianchi, N., Freund, Y., and Schapire, R. E. (2002a). The nonstochastic multiarmed bandit problem. SIAM J. Comput., 32(1):48?77. [4] Auer, P., Cesa-Bianchi, N., and Gentile, C. (2002b). Adaptive and self-confident on-line learning algorithms. Journal of Computer and System Sciences, 64:48?75. [5] Cesa-Bianchi, N., Freund, Y., Haussler, D., Helmbold, D., Schapire, R., and Warmuth, M. (1997). How to use expert advice. Journal of the ACM, 44:427?485. [6] Cesa-Bianchi, N. and Lugosi, G. (2006). Prediction, Learning, and Games. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA. [7] Cesa-Bianchi, N. and Lugosi, G. (2012). Combinatorial bandits. Journal of Computer and System Sciences, 78:1404?1422. [8] Chen, W., Wang, Y., and Yuan, Y. (2013). Combinatorial Multi-Armed Bandit: General Framework and Applications. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 151?159. [9] Gy?orfi, L. and Ottucs?ak, b. (2007). Sequential prediction of unbounded stationary time series. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 53(5):866?1872. [10] Hannan, J. (1957). Approximation to Bayes Risk in Repeated Play. Contributions to the theory of games, 3:97?139. [11] Hutter, M. and Poland, J. (2004). Prediction with Expert Advice by Following the Perturbed Leader for General Weights. In Algorithmic Learning Theory, pages 279?293. [12] Kalai, A. and Vempala, S. (2005). Efficient algorithms for online decision problems. Journal of Computer and System Sciences, 71:291?307. [13] Koolen, W. M., Warmuth, M. K., and Kivinen, J. (2010). Hedging structured concepts. In Proceedings of the 23rd Annual Conference on Learning Theory (COLT), pages 93?105. [14] Littlestone, N. and Warmuth, M. (1994). The weighted majority algorithm. Information and Computation, 108:212?261. [15] Mannor, S. and Shamir, O. (2011). From Bandits to Experts: On the Value of SideObservations. In Neural Information Processing Systems. [16] Neu, G. and Bart?ok, G. (2013). An Efficient Algorithm for Learning with Semi-bandit Feedback. In Jain, S., Munos, R., Stephan, F., and Zeugmann, T., editors, Algorithmic Learning Theory, volume 8139 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pages 234?248. Springer Berlin Heidelberg. [17] Vovk, V. (1990). Aggregating strategies. In Proceedings of the third annual workshop on Computational learning theory (COLT), pages 371?386. 9
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Learning to Optimize via Information-Directed Sampling Daniel Russo Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305 djrusso@stanford.edu Benjamin Van Roy Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305 bvr@stanford.edu Abstract We propose information-directed sampling ? a new algorithm for online optimization problems in which a decision-maker must balance between exploration and exploitation while learning from partial feedback. Each action is sampled in a manner that minimizes the ratio between the square of expected single-period regret and a measure of information gain: the mutual information between the optimal action and the next observation. We establish an expected regret bound for information-directed sampling that applies across a very general class of models and scales with the entropy of the optimal action distribution. For the widely studied Bernoulli and linear bandit models, we demonstrate simulation performance surpassing popular approaches, including upper confidence bound algorithms, Thompson sampling, and knowledge gradient. Further, we present simple analytic examples illustrating that informationdirected sampling can dramatically outperform upper confidence bound algorithms and Thompson sampling due to the way it measures information gain. 1 Introduction There has been significant recent interest in extending multi-armed bandit techniques to address problems with more complex information structures, in which sampling one action can inform the decision-maker?s assessment of other actions. Effective algorithms must take advantage of the information structure to learn more efficiently. Recent work has extended popular algorithms for the classical multi-armed bandit problem, such as upper confidence bound (UCB) algorithms and Thompson sampling, to address such contexts. For some cases, such as classical and linear bandit problems, strong performance guarantees have been established for UCB algorithms (e.g. [4, 8, 9, 13, 21, 23, 29]) and Thompson sampling (e.g. [1, 15, 19, 24]). However, as we will demonstrate through simple analytic examples, these algorithms can perform very poorly when faced with more complex information structures. The shortcoming lies in the fact that these algorithms do not adequately assess the information gain from selecting an action. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm ? information-directed sampling (IDS) ? that preserves numerous guarantees of Thompson sampling for problems with simple information structures while offering strong performance in the face of more complex problems that daunt alternatives like Thompson sampling or UCB algorithms. IDS quantifies the amount learned by selecting an action through an information theoretic measure: the mutual information between the true optimal action and the next observation. Each action is sampled in a manner that minimizes the ratio between squared expected single-period regret and this measure of information gain. As we will show through simple analytic examples, the way in which IDS assesses information gain allows it to dramatically outperform UCB algorithms and Thompson sampling. Further, we establish 1 an expected regret bound for IDS that applies across a very general class of models and scales with the entropy of the optimal action distribution. We then specialize this bound to several widely studied problem classes. Finally, we benchmark the performance of IDS through simulations of the widely studied Bernoulli and linear bandit problems, for which UCB algorithms and Thompson sampling are known to be very effective. We find that even in these settings, IDS outperforms UCB algorithms, Thompson sampling, and knowledge gradient. IDS solves a single-period optimization problem as a proxy to an intractable multi-period problem. Solution of this single-period problem can itself be computationally demanding, especially in cases where the number of actions is enormous or mutual information is difficult to evaluate. To carry out computational experiments, we develop numerical methods for particular classes of online optimization problems. More broadly, we feel this work provides a compelling proof of concept and hope that our development and analysis of IDS facilitate the future design of efficient algorithms that capture its benefits. Related literature. Two other papers [17, 30] have used the mutual information between the optimal action and the next observation to guide action selection. Both focus on the optimization of expensive-to-evaluate, black-box functions. Each proposes sampling points so as to maximize the mutual information between the algorithm?s next observation and the true optimizer. Several features distinguish our work. First, these papers focus on pure exploration problems: the objective is simply to learn about the optimum ? not to attain high cumulative reward. Second, and more importantly, they focus only on problems with Gaussian process priors and continuous action spaces. For such problems, simpler approaches like UCB algorithms, Probability of Improvement, and Expected Improvement are already extremely effective (See [6]). By contrast, a major motivation of our work is that a richer information measure is needed in order to address problems with more complicated information structures. Finally, we provide a variety of general theoretical guarantees for IDS, whereas Villemonteix et al. [30] and Hennig and Schuler [17] propose their algorithms only as heuristics. The full-length version of this paper [26] shows our theoretical guarantees extend to pure exploration problems. The knowledge gradient (KG) algorithm uses a different measure of information to guide action selection: the algorithm computes the impact of a single observation on the quality of the decision made by a greedy algorithm, which simply selects the action with highest posterior expected reward. This measure has been thoroughly studied (see e.g. [22, 27]). KG seems natural since it explicitly seeks information that improves decision quality. Computational studies suggest that for problems with Gaussian priors, Gaussian rewards, and relatively short time horizons, KG performs very well. However, even in some simple settings, KG may not converge to optimality. In fact, it may select a suboptimal action in every period, even as the time horizon tends to infinity. Our work also connects to a much larger literature on Bayesian experimental design (see [10] for a review). Recent work has demonstrated the effectiveness of greedy or myopic policies that always maximize the information gain the next sample. Jedynak et al. [18] consider problem settings in which this greedy policy is optimal. Another recent line of work [14] shows that information gain based objectives sometimes satisfy a decreasing returns property known as adaptive sub-modularity, implying the greedy policy is competitive with the optimal policy. Our algorithm also only considers only the information gain due to the next sample, even though the goal is to acquire information over many periods. Our results establish that the manner in which IDS encourages information gain leads to an effective algorithm, even for the different objective of maximizing cumulative reward. 2 Problem formulation We consider a general probabilistic, or Bayesian, formulation in which uncertain quantities are modeled as random variables. The decision?maker sequentially chooses actions (At )t?N from the finite action set A and observes the corresponding outcomes (Yt (At ))t?N . There is a random outcome Yt (a) ? Y associated with each a ? A and time t ? N. Let Yt ? (Yt (a))a?A be the vector of outcomes at time t ? N. The ?true outcome distribution? p? is a distribution over Y |A| that is itself randomly drawn from the family of distributions P. We assume that, conditioned on p? , (Yt )t?N is an iid sequence with each element Yt distributed according to p? . Let p?a be the marginal distribution corresponding to Yt (a). 2 The agent associates a reward R(y) with each outcome y ? Y, where the reward function R : Y ? R is fixed and known. We assume R(y) ? R(y) ? 1 for any y, y ? Y. Uncertainty about p? induces uncertainty about the true optimal action, which we denote by A? ? arg max E ? [R(y)]. The T a?A y?pa period regret is the random variable, Regret(T ) := T X t=1 [R(Yt (A? )) ? R(Yt (At ))] , (1) which measures the cumulative difference between the reward earned by an algorithm that always chooses the optimal action, and actual accumulated reward up to time T . In this paper we study expected regret E [Regret(T )] where the expectation is taken over the randomness in the actions At and the outcomes Yt , and over the prior distribution over p? . This measure of performance is sometimes called Bayesian regret or Bayes risk. Randomized policies. We define all random variables with respect to a probability space (?, F, P). Fix the filtration (Ft )t?N where Ft?1 ? F is the sigma?algebra generated by the history of observations (A1 , Y1 (A1 ), ..., At?1 , Yt?1 (At?1 )). Actions are chosen based on the history of past observations, and possibly some external source of randomness1 . It?s useful to think of the actions as being chosen by a randomized policy ?, which is an Ft ?predictable sequence (?t )t?N . An action is chosen at time t by randomizing according to ?t (?) = P(At = ?|Ft?1 ), which specifies a probability distribution over A. We denote the set of probability distributions over A by D(A). We explicitly display the dependence of regret on the policy ?, letting E [Regret(T, ?)] denote the expected value of (1) when the actions (A1 , .., AT ) are chosen according to ?. Further notation. We set ?t (a) = P (A? = a|Ft?1 ) to be the posterior distribution of A? . For a probability distribution P over a finite set X , the Shannon entropy of P is defined as P H(P ) = ? x?X P (x) log (P (x)) . For two probability measures P and Q over a common measurable space, if P is absolutely continuous with respect to Q, the Kullback-Leibler divergence between P and Q is   Z dP dP (2) DKL (P ||Q) = log dQ Y dP dQ is the Radon?Nikodym derivative of P with respect to Q. The mutual information under where the posterior distribution between random variables X1 : ? ? X1 , and X2 : ? ? X2 , denoted by It (X1 ; X2 ) := DKL (P ((X1 , X2 ) ? ?|Ft?1 ) || P (X1 ? ?|Ft?1 ) P (X2 ? ?|Ft?1 )) , (3) is the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the joint posterior distribution of X1 and X2 and the product of the marginal distributions. Note that It (X1 ; X2 ) is a random variable because of its dependence on the conditional probability measure P (?|Ft?1 ). To simplify notation, we define the information gain from an action a to be gt (a) := It (A? ; Yt (a)). As shown for example in Lemma 5.5.6 of Gray [16], this is equal to the expected reduction in entropy of the posterior distribution of A? due to observing Yt (a): gt (a) = E [H(?t ) ? H(?t+1 )|Ft?1 , At = a] , (4) which plays a crucial role in our results. Let ?t (a) := E [Rt (Yt (A? )) ? R(Yt (a))|Ft?1 ] denote the expected instantaneous regret the notation gt (?) and ?t (?). For P of action a at time t. We overload P ? ? D(A), define gt (?) = a?A ?(a)gt (a) and ?t (?) = a?A ?(a)?t (a). 3 Information-directed sampling IDS explicitly balances between having low expected regret in the current period and acquiring new information about which action is optimal. It does this by maximizing over all action sampling distributions ? ? D(A) the ratio between the square of expected regret ?t (?)2 and information 1 Formally, At is measurable with respect to the sigma?algebra generated by (Ft?1 , ?t ) where (?t )t?N are random variables representing this external source of randomness, and are jointly independent of p? and (Yt )t?N 3 !  gain gt (?) about the optimal action A? . In particular, the policy ? IDS = ?1IDS , ?2IDS , ... is defined by:   ?t (?)2 IDS . (5) ?t ? arg min ?t (?) := gt (?) ??D(A) We call ?t (?) the information ratio of a sampling distribution ? and ??t = min? ?t (?) = ?t (?tIDS ) the minimal information ratio. Each roughly measures the ?cost? per bit of information acquired. Optimization problem. Suppose that there are K = |A| actions, and that the posterior expected K regret and information gain are stored in the vectors ? ? RK + and g ? R+ . Assume g 6= 0, so that the optimal action is not known with certainty. The optimization problem (5) can be written as ! 2 minimize ?(?) := ? T ? /? T g subject to ? T e = 1, ? ? 0. (6) The following result shows this is a convex optimization problem, and surprisingly, has an optimal solution with only two non-zero components. Therefore, while IDS is a randomized policy, it randomizes over at most two actions. Algorithm 1, presented in the supplementary material, solves (6) by looping over all pairs of actions, and solving a one dimensional convex optimization problem. ! 2  Proposition 1. The function ? : ? 7? ? T ? /? T g is convex on ? ? RK |? T g > 0 . Moreover, there is an optimal solution ? ? to (6) with |{i : ?i? > 0}| ? 2. 4 Regret bounds This section establishes regret bounds for IDS that scale with the entropy of the optimal action distribution. The next proposition shows that bounds on a policy?s information ratio imply bounds on expected regret. We then provide several bounds on the information ratio of IDS. Proposition 2. Fix a deterministic ? ? R and a policy ? = (? p1 , ?2 , ...) such that ?t (?t ) ? ? almost surely for each t ? {1, .., T }. Then, E [Regret (?, T )] ? ?H(?1 )T . Bounds on the information ratio. We establish upper bounds on the minimal information ratio ??t = ??t (?tIDS ) in several important settings. These bound show that, in any period, the algorithm?s expected regret can only be large if it?s expected to acquire a lot of information about which action is optimal. It effectively balances between exploration and exploitation in every period. The proofs of these bounds essentially follow from a very recent analysis of Thompson sampling, and the implied regret bounds are the same as those established for Thompson sampling. In particular, since ??t ? ?t (? TS ) where ? TS is the Thompson sampling policy, it is enough to bound ?t (? TS ). Several such bounds were provided by Russo and Van Roy [25].2 While the analysis is similar in the cases considered here, IDS outperforms Thompson sampling in simulation, and, as we will highlight in the next section, is sometimes provably much more informationally efficient. We briefly describe each of these bounds below and then provide a more complete discussion for linear bandit problems. For each of the other cases, more formal propositions, their proofs, and a discussion of lower bounds can be found in the supplementary material or the full version of this paper [26]. Finite action space: With no additional assumption, we show ??t ? |A|/2. Linear bandit: Each action is associated with a d dimensional feature vector, and the mean reward generated by an action is the inner product between its known feature vector and some unknown parameter vector. We show ??t ? d/2. Full information: Upon choosing an action, the agent observes the reward she would have received had she chosen any other action. We show ??t ? 1/2. Combinatorial action sets: At time t, project i ? {1, .., d} yields a random reward ?t,i , and the ? ? reward Pfrom selecting a subset of projects a ? A ? {a ? {0, 1, ..., d} : |a | ? m} is ?1 m i?A ?t,i . The outcome of each selected project (?t,i : i ? a) is observed, which is sometimes called ?semi?bandit? feedback [3]. We show ??t ? d/2m2 . 2 ?t (? TS ) is exactly equal to the term ?2t that is bounded in [25]. 4 Linear optimization under bandit feedback. The stochastic linear bandit problem has been widely studied (e.g. [13, 23]) and is one of the most important examples of a multi-armed bandit problem with ?correlated arms.? In this setting, each action is associated with a finite dimensional feature vector, and the mean reward generated by an action is the inner product between its known feature vector and some unknown parameter vector. The next result bounds ??t for such problems. Proposition 3. If A ? Rd and for each p ? P there exists ?p ? Rd such that for all a ? A E [R(y)] = aT ?p , then for all t ? N, ??t ? d/2 almost surely. y?pa q q   1 1 This result shows that E Regret(T, ? IDS ) ? H(? )dT ? 1 2 2 log(|A|)dT for linear bandit problems. Dani et al. [12] show this bound is order optimal, in the sense that for any time horizon T d ? and dimension d if the actions p set is A = {0, 1} , there exists a prior distribution over p such that inf ? E [Regret(T, ?)] ? c0 log(|A|)dT where c0 is a constant the is independent of d and T . The bound here improves upon this worst case bound since H(?1 ) can be much smaller than log(|A|). 5 Beyond UCB and Thompson sampling Upper confidence bound algorithms (UCB) and Thompson sampling are two of the most popular approaches to balancing between exploration and exploitation. In some cases, these algorithms are empirically effective, and have strong theoretical guarantees. But we will show that, because they don?t quantify the information provided by sampling actions, they can be grossly suboptimal in other cases. We demonstrate this through two examples - each designed to be simple and transparent. To set the stage for our discussion, we now introduce UCB algorithms and Thompson sampling. Thompson sampling. The Thompson sampling algorithm simply samples actions according to the posterior probability they are optimal. In particular, actions are chosen randomly at time t according to the sampling distribution ?tTS = ?t . By definition, this means that for each a ? A, P(At = a|Ft?1 ) = P(A? = a|Ft?1 ) = ?t (a). This algorithm is sometimes called probability matching because the action selection distribution is matched to the posterior distribution of the optimal action. Note that Thompson sampling draws actions only from the support of the posterior distribution of A? . That is, it never selects an action a if P (A? = a) = 0. Put differently, this implies that it only selects actions that are optimal under some p ? P. UCB algorithms. UCB algorithms select actions through two steps. First, for each action a ? A an upper confidence bound Bt (a) is constructed. Then, an action At ? arg maxa?A Bt (a) with maximal upper confidence bound is chosen. Roughly, Bt (a) represents the greatest mean reward value that is statistically plausible. In particular, Bt (a) is typically constructed so that Bt (a) ? E ? [R(y)] as data about action a accumulates, but with high probability E ? [R(y)] ? Bt (a). y?pa y?pa Like Thompson sampling, many UCB algorithms only select actions that are optimal under some p ? P. Consider an algorithm that constructs at each time t a confidence set Pt ? P containing the set of distributions that are statistically plausible given observed data. (e.g. [13]). Upper confidence bounds are then set to be the highest expected reward attainable under one of the plausible distributions: Bt (a) = max E [R(y)] . p?P y?pa Any action At ? arg maxa Bt (a) must be optimal under one of the outcome distributions p ? Pt . An alternative method involves choosing Bt (a) to be a particular quantile of the posterior distribution of the action?s mean reward under p? [20]. In each of the examples we construct, such an algorithm chooses actions from the support of A? unless the quantiles are so low that maxa?A Bt (a) < E [R(Yt (A? ))]. 5.1 Example: sparse linear bandits Consider a linear bandit problem where A ? Rd and the reward from an action a ? A is aT ?? . The true parameter ?? is known to be drawn uniformly at random from the set of 1?sparse vectors ? = {? ? {0, 1}d : k?k0 = 1}. For simplicity, assume d = 2m for some m ? N. The action set is taken to be the set of vectors in {0, 1}d normalized to be a unit vector in the L1 norm: A = 5 o : x ? {0, 1}d , x 6= 0 . We will show that the expected number of time steps for Thompson sampling (or a UCB algorithm) to identify the optimal action grows linearly with d, whereas IDS requires only log2 (d) time steps. n x kxk1 When an action a is selected and y = aT ?? ? {0, 1/kak0 } is observed, each ? ? ? with aT ? 6= y is ruled out. Let ?t denote the parameters in ? that are consistent with the observations up to time t and let It = {i ? {1, ..., d} : ?i = 1, ? ? ?t } be the set of possible positive components. For this problem, A? = ?? . That is, if ?? were known, the optimal action would be to choose the action ?? . Thompson sampling and UCB algorithms only choose actions from the support of A? and therefore will only sample actions a ? A that have only a single positive component. Unless that is also the positive component of ?? , the algorithm will observe a reward of zero and rule out only one possible value for ?? . The algorithm may require d samples to identify the optimal action. Consider an application of IDS to this problem. It essentially performs binary search: it selects a ? A with ai > 0 for half of the components i ? It and ai = 0 for the other half as well as for any i? / It . After just log2 (d) time steps the true support of ?? is identified. are equally likely and hence the To see why this is the case, first notePthat all parameters in ?t P expected reward of an action a is |I1t | i?It ai . Since ai ? 0 and i ai = 1 for each a ? A, every action whose positive components are in It yields the highest possible expected reward of 1/|It |. Therefore, binary search minimizes expected regret in period t for this problem. At the same time, binary search is assured to rule out half of the parameter vectors in ?t at each time t. This is the largest possible expected reduction, and also leads to the largest possible information gain about A?. Since binary search both minimizes expected regret in period t and uniquely maximizes expected information gain in period t, it is the sampling strategy followed by IDS. 5.2 Example: recommending products to a customer of unknown type Consider the problem of repeatedly recommending an assortment of products to a customer. The customer has unknown type c? ? C where |C| = n. Each product is geared toward customers of a particular type, and the assortment a ? A = C m of m products offered is characterized by the vector of product types a = (c1 , .., cm ). We model customer responses through a random utility model in which customers are apriori more likely to derive high value from a product geared toward their type. When offered an assortment of products a, the customer associates with the ith product (t) (t) t utility Uci (a) = ?1{ai =c} + Wci , where Wci follows an extreme?value distribution and ? ? R is a known constant. This is a standard multinomial logit discrete P choice model. The probability a m customer of type c chooses product i is given by exp{?1{ai =c} }/ j=1 exp{?1{aj =c} }. When an (t) assortment a is offered at time t, the customer makes a choice It = arg maxi Uci (a) and leaves (t) a review UcIt (a) indicating the utility derived from the product, both of which are observed by the (t) recommendation system. The system?s reward is the normalized utility of the customer ( ?1 )UcIt (a). If the type c? of the customer were known, then the optimal recommendation would be A? = (c? , c? , ..., c? ), which consists only of products targeted at the customer?s type. Therefore, both Thompson sampling and UCB algorithms would only offer assortments consisting of a single type of product. Because of this, each type of algorithm requires order n samples to learn the customer?s true type. IDS will instead offer a diverse assortment of products to the customer, allowing it to learn much more quickly. To make the presentation more transparent, suppose that c? is drawn uniformly at random from C and consider the behavior of each type of algorithm in the limiting case where ? ? ?. In this regime, the probability a customer chooses a product of type c? if it available tends to 1, and the (t) review UcIt (a) tends to 1{aIt = c? }, an indicator for whether the chosen product had type c? . The initial assortment offered by IDS will consist of m different and previously untested product types. Such an assortment maximizes both the algorithm?s expected reward in the next period and the algorithm?s information gain, since it has the highest probability of containing a product of type c? . The customer?s response almost perfectly indicates whether one of those items was of type c? . The algorithm continues offering assortments containing m unique, untested, product types until a 6 (t) review near UcIt (a) ? 1 is received. With extremely high probability, this takes at most ?n/m? time periods. By diversifying the m products in the assortment, the algorithm learns m times faster. 6 Computational experiments Section 5 showed that, for some complicated information structures, popular approaches like UCB algorithms and Thompson sampling are provably outperformed by IDS. Our computational experiments focus instead on simpler settings where these algorithms are extremely effective. We find that even for these widely studied settings, IDS displays performance exceeding state of the art. For each experiment, the algorithm used to implement IDS is presented in Appendix C. Mean-based IDS. Some of our numerical experiments use an approximate form of IDS that is suitable for some problems with bandit feedback, satisfies our regret bounds for such problems, and can sometimes facilitate design of more efficient numerical methods. More details can be found in the appendix, or in the full version of this paper [26]. Beta-Bernoulli experiment. Our first experiment involves a multi-armed bandit problem with independent arms. The action ai ? {a1 , ..., aK } yields in each time period a reward that is 1 with probability ?i and 0 otherwise. The ?i are drawn independently from Beta(1, 1), which is the uniform distribution. Figure 1a presents the results of 1000 independent trials of an experiment with 10 arms and a time horizon of 1000. We compare IDS to six other algorithms, and find that it has the lowest average regret of 18.16. Our results indicate that the the variation of IDS ? IDSME presented in Section 6 has extremely similar performance to standard IDS for this problem. Cumulative Regret 50 40 30 60 Knowledge Gradient IDS Mean?based IDS Thompson Sampling Bayes UCB UCB Tuned MOSS KL UCB 50 Cumulative Regret 60 20 30 20 10 10 0 0 40 200 400 600 Time Period 800 0 0 1000 (a) Binary rewards 2 IDS Thompson Sampling Bayes UCB Lower Bound 4 6 8 10 4 Time Period x 10 (b) Asymptotic performance In this experiment, the famous UCB1 algorithm of Auer et al. [4] had average regret 131.3, which is dramatically larger than that of IDS. For this reason UCB1 is omitted from Figure 1a. The confidence bounds of UCB1 are constructed to facilitate theoretical analysis. For practical performance Auer et al. [4] proposed using a heuristic algorithm called UCB-Tuned. The MOSS algorithm of Audibert and Bubeck [2] is similar to UCB1 and UCB?Tuned, but uses slightly different confidence bounds. It is known to satisfy regret bounds for this problem that are minimax optimal up to a constant factor. In previous numerical experiments [11, 19, 20, 28], Thompson sampling and Bayes UCB exhibited state-of-the-art performance for this problem. Unsurprisingly, they are the closest competitors to IDS. The Bayes UCB algorithm, studied in Kaufmann et al. [20], uses upper confidence bounds at time step t that are the 1 ? 1t quantile of the posterior distribution of each action3 . The knowledge gradient (KG) policy of Ryzhov et al. [27], uses the one?step value of information to incentivize exploration. However, for this problem, KG does not explore sufficiently to identify the optimal arm in this problem, and therefore its expected regret grows linearly with time. It should be noted that KG is particularly poorly suited to problems with discrete observations and long time horizons. It can perform very well in other types of experiments. Asymptotic optimality. That IDS outperforms Bayes UCB and Thompson sampling in our last experiment is is particularly surprising, as each of these algorithms is known, in a sense we will 3 Their theoretical guarantees require choosing a somewhat higher quantile, but the authors suggest choosing this quantile, and use it in their own numerical experiments. 7 soon formalize, to be asymptotically optimal for these problems. We now present simulation results over a much longer time horizon that suggest IDS scales in the same asymptotically optimal way. The seminal work of Lai and Robbins [21] provides the following asymptotic frequentist lower bound on regret of any policy ?. When applied with an independent uniform prior over ?, both Bayes UCB and Thompson sampling are known to attain this frequentist lower bound [19, 20]: X (?A? ? ?a ) E [Regret(T, ?)|?] ? := c(?) lim inf T ?? log T DKL (?A? || ?a ) ? a6=A Our next numerical experiment fixes a problem with three actions and with ? = (.3, .2, .1). We compare algorithms over a 10,000 time periods. Due to the computational expense of this experiment, we only ran 200 independent trials. Each algorithm uses a uniform prior over ?. Our results, along with the asymptotic lower bound of c(?) log(T ), are presented in Figure 1b. Cumulative Regret Linear bandit problems. Our final numerical experiment treats a linear bandit problem. Each action a ? R5 is defined by a 5 dimensional feature vector. The reward of action a at time t is aT ? + ?t where ? ? N (0, 10I) is drawn from a multivariate Gaussian prior distribution, and ?t ? 60 Bayes UCB N (0, 1) is independent Gaussian noise. In each Knowledge Gradient 50 Thompson Sampling period, only the reward of the selected action is Mean?based IDS GP UCB observed. In our experiment, the action set A 40 GP UCB Tuned contains 30 actions, each with features drawn ? ? 30 uniformly at random from [?1/ 5, 1/ 5]. The results displayed in Figure 1 are averaged 20 over 1000 independent trials. 10 We compare the regret of five algorithms. Three 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 of these - GP-UCB, Thompson sampling , and Time Period IDS - satisfy strong regret bounds for this problem4 . Both GP-UCB and Thompson sampling Figure 1: Regret in linear?Gaussian model. are significantly outperformed by IDS. Bayes UCB [20] and a version of GP-UCB that was tuned to minimize its average regret, are each competitive with IDS. These algorithms are heuristics, in the sense that their confidence bounds differ significantly from those of linear UCB algorithms known to satisfy theoretical guarantees. 7 Conclusion This paper has proposed information-directed sampling ? a new algorithm for balancing between exploration and exploitation. We establish a general regret bound for the algorithm, and specialize this bound to several widely studied classes of online optimization problems. We show the way in which IDS assesses information gain allows it to dramatically outperform UCB algorithms and Thompson sampling in some settings. Finally, for two simple and widely studied classes of multiarmed bandit problems we demonstrate state of art performance in simulation experiments. In these ways, we feel this work provides a compelling proof of concept. Many important open questions remain, however. IDS solves a single-period optimization problem as a proxy to an intractable multi-period problem. Solution of this single-period problem can itself be computationally demanding, especially in cases where the number of actions is enormous or mutual information is difficult to evaluate. An important direction for future research concerns the development of computationally elegant procedures to implement IDS in important cases. Even when the algorithm cannot be directly implemented, however, one may hope to develop simple algorithms that capture its main benefits. Proposition 2 shows that any algorithm with small information ratio satisfies strong regret bounds. Thompson sampling is a very tractable algorithm that, we conjecture, sometimes has nearly minimal information ratio. Perhaps simple schemes with small information ratio could be developed for other important problem classes, like the sparse linear bandit problem. 4 Regret analysis of GP-UCB can be found in [29] and for Thompson sampling can be found in [1, 24, 25] 8 References [1] S. Agrawal and N. Goyal. Thompson sampling for contextual bandits with linear payoffs. In ICML, 2013. [2] J.-Y. Audibert and S. Bubeck. Minimax policies for bandits games. COLT, 2009. [3] J.-Y. Audibert, S. Bubeck, and G. Lugosi. Regret in online combinatorial optimization. Mathematics of Operations Research, 2013. [4] P. Auer, N. Cesa-Bianchi, and P. Fischer. Finite-time analysis of the multiarmed bandit problem. Machine learning, 47(2):235?256, 2002. [5] S.P. Boyd and L. Vandenberghe. Convex optimization. Cambridge university press, 2004. [6] E. Brochu, V.M. Cora, and N. De Freitas. A tutorial on bayesian optimization of expensive cost functions, with application to active user modeling and hierarchical reinforcement learning. arXiv preprint arXiv:1012.2599, 2010. [7] S. Bubeck and N. Cesa-Bianchi. Regret analysis of stochastic and nonstochastic multi-armed bandit problems. arXiv preprint arXiv:1204.5721, 2012. [8] S. Bubeck, R. Munos, G. Stoltz, and Cs. Szepesv?ari. X-armed bandits. JMLR, 12:1655?1695, June 2011. [9] O. Capp?e, A. Garivier, O.-A. Maillard, R. Munos, and G. Stoltz. Kullback-Leibler upper confidence bounds for optimal sequential allocation. Annals of Statistics, 41(3):1516?1541, 2013. [10] K. Chaloner, I. Verdinelli, et al. Bayesian experimental design: A review. Statistical Science, 10(3): 273?304, 1995. [11] O. Chapelle and L. Li. An empirical evaluation of Thompson sampling. In NIPS, 2011. [12] V. Dani, S.M. Kakade, and T.P. Hayes. The price of bandit information for online optimization. In NIPS, pages 345?352, 2007. [13] V. Dani, T.P. Hayes, and S.M. Kakade. Stochastic linear optimization under bandit feedback. In COLT, pages 355?366, 2008. [14] D. Golovin and A. Krause. Adaptive submodularity: Theory and applications in active learning and stochastic optimization. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 42(1):427?486, 2011. [15] A. Gopalan, S. Mannor, and Y. Mansour. Thompson sampling for complex online problems. In ICML, 2014. [16] R.M. Gray. Entropy and information theory. Springer, 2011. [17] P. Hennig and C.J. Schuler. Entropy search for information-efficient global optimization. JMLR, 98888 (1):1809?1837, 2012. [18] B. Jedynak, P.I. Frazier, R. Sznitman, et al. Twenty questions with noise: Bayes optimal policies for entropy loss. Journal of Applied Probability, 49(1):114?136, 2012. [19] E. Kauffmann, N. Korda, and R. Munos. Thompson sampling: an asymptotically optimal finite time analysis. In ALT, 2012. [20] E. Kaufmann, O. Capp?e, and A. Garivier. On Bayesian upper confidence bounds for bandit problems. In AISTATS, 2012. [21] T.L. Lai and H. Robbins. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules. Advances in applied mathematics, 6(1):4?22, 1985. [22] W.B. Powell and I.O. Ryzhov. Optimal learning, volume 841. John Wiley & Sons, 2012. [23] P. Rusmevichientong and J.N. Tsitsiklis. Linearly parameterized bandits. Mathematics of Operations Research, 35(2):395?411, 2010. [24] D. Russo and B. Van Roy. Learning to optimize via posterior sampling. CoRR, abs/1301.2609, 2013. [25] D. Russo and B. Van Roy. An information-theoretic analysis of thompson sampling. arXiv preprint arXiv:1403.5341, 2014. [26] D. Russo and B. Van Roy. Learning to optimize via information directed sampling. arXiv preprint arXiv:1403.5556, 2014. [27] I.O. Ryzhov, W.B. Powell, and P.I. Frazier. The knowledge gradient algorithm for a general class of online learning problems. Operations Research, 60(1):180?195, 2012. [28] S.L. Scott. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 26(6):639?658, 2010. [29] N. Srinivas, A. Krause, S.M. Kakade, and M. Seeger. Information-theoretic regret bounds for Gaussian process optimization in the bandit setting. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 58(5):3250 ?3265, may 2012. [30] Julien Villemonteix, Emmanuel Vazquez, and Eric Walter. An informational approach to the global optimization of expensive-to-evaluate functions. Journal of Global Optimization, 44(4):509?534, 2009. 9
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Bayesian Inference for Structured Spike and Slab Priors Michael Riis Andersen, Ole Winther & Lars Kai Hansen DTU Compute, Technical University of Denmark DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark {miri, olwi, lkh}@dtu.dk Abstract Sparse signal recovery addresses the problem of solving underdetermined linear inverse problems subject to a sparsity constraint. We propose a novel prior formulation, the structured spike and slab prior, which allows to incorporate a priori knowledge of the sparsity pattern by imposing a spatial Gaussian process on the spike and slab probabilities. Thus, prior information on the structure of the sparsity pattern can be encoded using generic covariance functions. Furthermore, we provide a Bayesian inference scheme for the proposed model based on the expectation propagation framework. Using numerical experiments on synthetic data, we demonstrate the benefits of the model. 1 Introduction Consider a linear inverse problem of the form: y = Ax + e, N ?D (1) N where A ? R is the measurement matrix, y ? R is the measurement vector, x ? RD is the desired solution and e ? RN is a vector of corruptive noise. The field of sparse signal recovery deals with the task of reconstructing the sparse solution x from (A, y) in the ill-posed regime where N < D. In many applications it is beneficial to encourage a structured sparsity pattern rather than independent sparsity. In this paper we consider a model for exploiting a priori information on the sparsity pattern, which has applications in many different fields, e.g., structured sparse PCA [1], background subtraction [2] and neuroimaging [3]. In the framework of probabilistic modelling sparsity can be enforced using so-called sparsity promoting priors, which conventionally has the following form D Y p(x ?) = p(xi ?), (2) i=1 where p(xi ?) is the marginal prior on xi and ? is a fixed hyperparameter controlling the degree of sparsity. Examples of such sparsity promoting priors include the Laplace prior (LASSO [4]), and the Bernoulli-Gaussian prior (the spike and slab model [5]). The main advantage of this formulation is that the inference schemes become relatively simple due to the fact that the prior factorizes over the variables xi . However, this fact also implies that the models cannot encode any prior knowledge of the structure of the sparsity pattern. One approach to model a richer sparsity structure is the so-called group sparsity approach, where the set of variables x has been partitioned into groups beforehand. This 1 approach has been extensively developed for the `1 minimization community, i.e. group LASSO, sparse group LASSO [6] and graph LASSO [7]. Let G be a partition of the set of variables into G groups. A Bayesian equivalent of group sparsity is the group spike and slab model [8], which takes the form G Y   p(x z) = (1 ? zg ) ? (xg ) + zg N xg 0, ? Ig , g=1 G  Y  p(z ? = Bernoulli zg ?g , (3) g=1 G where z ? [0, 1] are binary support variables indicating whether the variables in different groups are active or not. Other relevant work includes [9] and [10]. Another more flexible approach is to use a Markov random field (MRF) as prior for the binary variables [2]. Related to the MRF-formulation, we propose a novel model called the Structured Spike and Slab model. This model allows us to encode a priori information of the sparsity pattern into the model using generic covariance functions rather than through clique potentials as for the MRF-formulation [2]. Furthermore, we provide a Bayesian inference scheme based on expectation propagation for the proposed model. 2 The structured spike and slab prior We propose a hierarchical prior of the following form: D Y p(x ?) = p(xi g(?i )),  p(?) = N ? ?0 , ?0 , (4) i=1 where g : R ? R is a suitable injective transformation. That is, we impose a Gaussian process [11] as a prior on the parameters ?i . Using this parametrization, prior knowledge of the structure of the sparsity pattern can be encoded using ?0 and ?0 . The mean value ?0 controls the prior belief of the support and the covariance matrix determines the prior correlation of the support. In the remainder of this paper we restrict p(xi |g(?i )) to be a spike and slab model, i.e.  p(xi zi ) = (1 ? zi )?(xi ) + zi N xi 0, ?0 , zi ? Ber (g(?i )) . (5) This formulation clearly fits into eq. (4) when zi is marginalized out. Furthermore, we will assume that g is the standard Normal CDF, i.e. g(x) = ?(x). Using this formulation, the marginal prior probability of the i?th weight being active is given by:   Z Z  ?i p(zi = 1) = p(zi = 1 ?i )p(?i )d?i = ?(?i )N ?i ?i , ?ii d?i = ? ? . (6) 1 + ?ii This implies that the probability of zi = 1 is 0.5 when ?i = 0 as expected. In contrast to the `1 -based methods and the MRF-priors, the Gaussian process formulation makes it easy to generate samples from the model. Figures 1(a), 1(b) each show three realizations of the support from the prior using a squared exponential kernel of the form: 2 ?ij = 50 exp(? (i ? j) /2s2 ) and ?i is fixed such that the expected level of sparsity is 10%. It is seen that when the scale, s, is small, the support consists of scattered spikes. As the scale increases, the support of the signals becomes more contiguous and clustered, where the sizes of the clusters increase with the scale. To gain insight into the relationship between ? and z, we consider the two dimensional system with ?i = 0 and the following covariance structure   1 ? ?0 = ? , ? > 0. (7) ? 1 The correlation between z1 and z2 is then computed as a function of ? and ? by sampling. The resulting curves in Figure 1(c) show that the desired correlation is an increasing function of ? as expected. However, the figure also reveals that for ? = 1, i.e. 100% correlation between the ? parameters, does not imply 100% correlation of the support variables z. This 2 Correlation of z1 and z2 1 ? = 1.0 ? = 10.0 ? = 10000.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 , (a) Scale s = 0.1 (b) Scale s = 5 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 ? = Correlation of ?1 and ?2 1 (c) Correlation of support Figure 1: (a,b) Realizations of the support z from the prior distribution using a squared exponential covariance function for ?, i.e. ?ij = 50 exp(?(i ? j)2 /2s2 ) and ? is fixed to match an expected sparsity rate K/D of 10%. (c) Correlation of z1 and z2 as a function of ? for 5 different values of A obtained by sampling. This prior mean function is fixed at ?i = 0 for all i. is due to the fact that there are two levels of uncertainty in the prior distribution of the support. That is, first we sample ?, and then we sample the support z conditioned on ?. The proposed prior formulation extends easily to the multiple measurement vector (MMV) formulation [12, 13, 14], in which multiple linear inverse problems are solved simultaneously. The most straightforward way is to assume all problem instances share the same support variable, commonly known as joint sparsity [14] D T Y   Y  (1 ? zi )?(xti ) + zi N xti 0, ? , p X z = (8) t=1 i=1  p(zi ?i ) = Ber zi ?(?i ) , (9)  p(?) = N ? ?0 , ?0 , (10)  1  where X = x . . . xT ? RD?T . The model can also be extended to problems, where the sparsity pattern changes in time D T Y  Y   (1 ? zit )?(xti ) + zit N xti 0, ? , p X z = p(zit ?it ) = t=1 i=1  Ber zit ?(?it ) ,  p(?1 , ..., ?T ) = N ?1 ?0 , ?0 (11) (12) T Y  N ?t (1 ? ?)?0 + ??t?1 , ??0 , (13) t=2 where the parameters 0 ? ? ? 1 and ? ? 0 controls the temporal dynamics of the support. 3 Bayesian inference using expectation propagation In this section we combine the structured spike and slab prior as given in eq. (5) with an isotropic Gaussian noise model and derive an inference algorithm  based on expectation propagation. The likelihood function is p(y x) = N y Ax, ?02 I and the joint posterior distribution of interest thus becomes 1 p(x, z, ? y) = p(y x)p(x z)p(z ?)p(?) (14) Z D D Y   Y   1 = N y Ax, ?02 I (1 ? zi )?(xi ) + zi N xi 0, ?0 Ber zi ? (?i ) N ? ?0 , ?0 , Z| {z } i=1 | {z } i=1 | {z }| {z } f1 f4 f2 f3 3 where Z is the normalization constant independent of x, z and ?. Unfortunately, the true posterior is intractable and therefore we have to settle for an approximation. In particular, we apply the framework of expectation propagation (EP) [15, 16], which is an iterative deterministic framework for approximating probability distributions using distributions from the exponential family. The algorithm proposed here can be seen as an extension of the work in [8]. As shown in eq. (14), the true posterior is a composition of 4 factors, i.e. fa for a = 1, .., 4. The terms f2 and f3 are further decomposed into D conditionally independent factors D D Y Y   f2 (x, z) = f2,i (xi , zi ) = (1 ? zi )?(xi ) + zi N xi 0, ?0 , (15) i=1 f3 (z, ?) = D Y i=1 f3,i (zi , ?i ) = i=1 D Y  Ber zi ? (?i ) (16) i=1 The idea is then to approximate each term in the true posterior density, i.e. fa , by simpler terms, i.e. f?a for a = 1, .., 4. The resulting approximation Q (x, z, ?) then becomes 4 1 Y ? fa (x, z, ?) . (17) Q (x, z, ?) = ZEP a=1 The terms f?1 and f?4 can be computed exact. In fact, f?4 is simply equal to the prior over ? 1 and covariance matrix ? and f?1 is a multivariate Gaussian distribution with mean m ? 1 = ?12 AT y and V?1?1 = ?12 AT A. Therefore, we only have to V?1 determined by V?1?1 m approximate the factors f?2 and f?3 using EP. Note that the exact term f1 is a distribution of y conditioned on x, whereas the approximate term f?1 is a function of x that depends ? 1 and V?1 etc. In order to take full advantage of the structure of the true on y through m posterior distribution, we will further assume that the terms f?2 and f?3 also are decomposed into D independent factors. The EP scheme provides great flexibility in the choice of the approximating factors. This choice is a trade-off between analytical tractability and sufficient flexibility for capturing the important characteristics of the true density. Due to the product over the binary support variables {zi } for i = 1, .., D, the true density is highly multimodal. Finally, f2 couples the variables x and z, while f3 couples the variables z and ?. Based on these observations, we choose f?2 and f?3 to have the following forms D D D  Y Y   Y ? 2 , V?2 Ber zi ? (? ?2,i ) = N x m Ber zi ? (? ?2,i ) , N xi m ? 2,i , v?2,i f?2 (x, z) ? i=1 f?3 (z, ?) ? D Y i=1 i=1 i=1 D D Y   Y  ?3 ? 3, ? Ber zi ? (? ?2,i ) , ?3,i ) N ?i ? ?3,i , ? ?3,i = N ? ? Ber zi ? (? i=1 i=1 T ? 3. ? 2,1 , .., m ? 2,D ] , V?2 = diag (? ? 2 = [m ? 3 and ? where m v2,1 , ..., v?2,D ) and analogously for ? These choices lead to a joint variational approximation Q(x, z, ?) of the form D  Y    ? , ? V? ? ? Q (x, z, ?) = N x m, Ber zi g (? ?i ) N ? ?, (18) i=1 where the joint parameters are given by  ?1 V? = V? ?1 + V? ?1 ,   ?1 ? V? ?1 m ? ? ? ? m = V + V m 1 2 1 2 1 2  ?1   ? = ? ? ?1 + ? ? ?1 ? ? ? ?1 ? ? ?1 ? 4 ?=? ? , ? 3 4 3 ? 3 + ?4 ? " ?1 # (1 ? ?(? ?2,j )) (1 ? ?(? ?3,j )) ?1 ??j = ? +1 , ?j ? {1, .., D} . ?(? ?2,j )?(? ?3,j ) (19) (20) (21) where ??1 (x) is the probit function. The function in eq. (21) amounts to computing the product of two Bernoulli densities parametrized using ? (?). 4 ? Initialize approximation terms f?a for a = 1, 2, 3, 4 and Q ? Repeat until stopping criteria ? For each f?2,i : ? Compute cavity distribution: Q\2,i ? f?Q 2,i  ? Minimize: KL f2,i Q\2,i Q2,new w.r.t. Qnew 2,new ? Compute: f?2,i ? QQ\2,i to update parameters m ? 2,i , v?2,i and ??2,i . ? V? and ? ? ? Update joint approximation parameters: m, ? For each f?3,i : ? Compute cavity distribution: Q\3,i ? f?Q 3,i  ? Minimize: KL f3,i Q\3,i Q3,new w.r.t. Qnew 3,new ?3,i , ? ?3,i and ??3,i ? Compute: f?3,i ? QQ\3,i to update parameters ? ? and ? ? ? ? ? Update joint approximation parameters: ?, Figure 2: Proposed algorithm for approximating the joint posterior distribution over x, z and ?. 3.1 The EP algorithm Q Consider the update of the term f?a,i for a given a and a given i, where f?a = i f?a,i . This update is performed by first removing the contribution of f?a,i from the joint approximation by forming the so-called cavity distribution Q\a,i ? Q f?a,i (22) followed by the minimization of the Kullbach-Leibler [17] divergence between fa,i Q\a,i and Qa,new w.r.t. Qa,new . For distributions within the exponential family, minimizing this form of KL divergence amounts to matching moments between fa,i Q\2,i and Qa,new [15]. Finally, the new update of f?a,i is given by Qa,new . f?a,i ? Q\a,i (23) After all the individual approximation terms f?a,i for a = 1, 2 and i = 1, .., D have been updated, the joint approximation is updated using eq. (19)-(21). To minimize the computational load, we use parallel updates of f?2,i [8] followed by parallel updates of f?3,i rather than the conventional sequential update scheme. Furthermore, due to the fact that f?2 and f?3 factorizes, we only need the marginals of the cavity distributions Q\a,i and the marginals of the updated joint distributions Qa,new for a = 2, 3. Computing the cavity distributions and matching the moments are tedious, but straightforward. The moments of fa,i Q\2,i require evaluation of the zeroth, first and second order moment of the distributions of the form ?(?i )N ?i ?i , ?ii . Derivation of analytical expressions for these moments can be found in [11]. See the supplementary material for more details. The proposed algorithm is summarized in figure 2. Note, that the EP framework also provides an approximation of the marginal likelihood [11], which can be useful for learning the hyperparameters of the model. Furthermore, the proposed inference scheme t can easily be extended to the MMV formulation eq. (8)-(10) by introducing a f?2,i for each time step t = 1, .., T . 5 3.2 Computational details Most linear inverse problems of practical interest are high dimensional, i.e. D is large. It is therefore of interest to simplify the computational complexity of the algorithm as much as possible. The dominating operations in this algorithm are the inversions of the two D ? D  covariance matrices in eq. (19) and eq. (20), and therefore the algorithm scales as O D3 . But V?1 has low rank and V?2 is diagonal, and therefore we can apply the Woodbury matrix identity [18] to eq. (19) to get  ?1 V? = V?2 ? V?2 AT ?o2 I + AV?2 AT AV?2 . (24)  For N < D, this scales as O N D2 , where N is the number of observations. Unfortunately, ? 4 has full rank and we cannot apply the same identity to the inversion in eq. (20) since ? is non-diagonal in general. The eigenvalue spectrum of many prior covariance structures of interest, i.e. simple neighbourhoods etc., decay relatively fast. Therefore, we can approximate ?0 with a low rank approximation ?0 ? P ?P T , where ? ? RR?R is a diagonal matrix of the R largest eigenvalues and P ? RD?R is the corresponding eigenvectors. Using the R-rank approximation, we can now invoke the Woodbury matrix identity again to get:  ?1 ? =? ?3 + ? ? 3P ? + P T ? ? 3P ? 3. ? PT? (25)  Similarly, for R < D, this scales as O RD2 . Another better approach that preserves the total variance would be to use probabilistic PCA [19] to approximate ?0 . A third alternative is to consider other structures for ?0 , which facilitate fast matrix inversions such as block structures and Toeplitz structures. Numerical issues can arise in EP implementations and in order to avoid this, we use the same precautions as described in [8]. 4 Numerical experiments This section describes a series of numerical experiments that have been designed and conducted in order to investigate the properties of the proposed algorithm. 4.1 Experiment 1 The first experiment compares the proposed method to the LARS algorithm [20] and to the BG-AMP method [21], which is an approximate message passing-based method for the spike and slab model. We also compare the method to an ?oracle least squares estimator? that knows the true support of the solutions. We generate 100 problem instances from y = Ax0 + e, where the solutions vectors have been sampled from the proposed prior using the kernel ?i,j = 50 exp(?||i ? j||22 /(2 ? 102 )), but constrained to have a fixed sparsity level of the K/D = 0.25. That is, each solution x0 has the same number of non-zero entries, but different sparsity patterns. We vary the degree of undersampling from N/D = 0.05 to N/D = 0.95. The elements of A ? RN ?250 are i.i.d Gaussian and the columns of A have been scaled to unit `2 -norm. The SNR is fixed at 20dB. We apply the four methods to each of the 100 problems, and for each solution we compute the Normalized Mean Square Error ? as well as the F -measure: (NMSE) between the true signal x0 and the estimated signal x NMSE = ? 2 ||x0 ? x|| ||x0 ||2 F =2 precision ? recall , precision + recall (26) where precision and recall are computed using a MAP estimate of the support. For the structured spike and slab method, we consider three different covariance structures: ?ij = ? ? ?(i ? j), ?ij = ? exp(?||i ? j||2 /s) and ?ij = ? exp(?||i ? j||22 /(2s2 )) with parameters ? = 50 and s = 10. In each case, we use a R = 50 rank approximation of ?. The average results are shown in figures 3(a)-(f). Figure (a) shows an example of one of the sampled vectors x0 and figure (b) shows the three covariance functions. From figure 3(c)-(d), it is seen that the two EP methods with neighbour correlation are able to improve the phase transition point. That is, in order to obtain a reconstruction 6 3 Example signal x 50 0 1 0.8 40 NMSE cov(||i?j||2) 1 Signal Diagonal Exponential Sq. exponential 60 2 30 0.6 ?1 20 0.4 ?2 10 0.2 ?3 0 0 ?50 ?40 ?30 ?20 ?10 100 150 Signal domain 200 250 (a) Example signal (b) Covariance functions 3.5 1 0.8 F 0.2 0 0 Oracle LS LARS BG?AMP EP, Diagonal EP, Exponential EP, Sq. exponential 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Undersamplingsratio N/D (d) F-measure 1 Second 2.5 0.6 2 1.5 1 300 250 EP, Diagonal EP, Exponential EP, Sq. exponential 200 150 100 1 50 0.5 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Undersamplingsratio N/D (c) NMSE Oracle LS LARS BG?AMP EP, Diagonal EP, Exponential EP, Sq. exponential 3 0.4 0 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 ||i?j||2 Iterations 50 Oracle LS LARS BG?AMP EP, Diagonal EP, Exponential EP, Sq. exponential 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Undersamplingsratio N/D (e) Run times 1 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Undersamplingsratio N/D 1 (f) Iterations Figure 3: Illustration of the benefit of modelling the additional structure of the sparsity pattern. 100 problem instances are generated using the linear measurement model y = Ax + e, where elements of A ? RN ?250 are i.i.d Gaussian and the columns are scaled to unit `2 -norm.The solutions x0 aresampled from the prior in eq. (5) with hyperparameters ?ij = 50 exp ? ||i ? j||2 / 2 ? 102 and a fixed level of sparsity of K/D = 0.25. For EP methods, the ?0 matrix is approximated using a rank 50 matrix. SNR is fixed at 20dB. of the signal such that F ? 0.8, EP with diagonal covariance and BG-AMP need an undersamplingratio of N/D ? 0.55, while the EP methods with neighbour correlation only need N/D ? 0.35 to achieve F ? 0.8. For this specific problem, this means that utilizing the neighbourhood structure allows us to reconstruct the signal with 50 fewer observations. Note that, the reconstruction using the exponential covariance function does also improve the result even if the true underlying covariance structure corresponds to a squared exponential function. Furthermore, we see similar performance of BG-AMP and EP with a diagonal covariance matrix. This is expected for problems where Aij is drawn iid as assumed in BG-AMP. However, the price of the improved phase transition is clear from figure 3(e). The proposed algorithm has significantly higher computational complexity than BG-AMP and LARS. Figure 4(a) shows the posterior mean of z for the signal shown in figure 3(a). Here it is seen that the two models with neighbour correlation provide a better approximation to the posterior activation probabilities. Figure 4(b) shows the posterior mean of ? for the model with the squared exponential kernel along with ? one standard deviation. 4.2 Experiment 2 In this experiment we consider an application of the MMV formulation as given in eq. (8)(10), namely EEG source localization with synthetic sources [22]. Here we are interested in localizing the active sources within a specific region of interest on the cortical surface (grey area on figure 5(a)). To do this, we now generate a problem instance of Y = AEEG X0 + E using the procedure as described in experiment 1, where AEEG ? R128?800 is now a submatrix of a real EEG forward matrix corresponding to the grey area on the figure. The condition number of AEEG is ? 8?1015 . The true sources X0 ? R800?20 are sampled from the structured spike and slab prior in eq. (8) using a squared exponential kernel with parameters A = 50, s = 10 and T = 20. The number of active sources is 46, i.e. x has 46 non-zero rows. SNR is fixed to 20dB. The true sources are shown in figure 5(a). We now use the EP algorithm to recover the sources using the true prior, i.e. squared exponential kernel and 7 True support EP, Diag EP, Exp. EP, Sq. exp ? 1 standard deviation Posterior mean of ? for sq. exp. 5 1 0.9 0 0.7 ?i|y p(zi = 1|y) 0.8 0.6 0.5 ?5 0.4 0.3 0.2 ?10 0.1 0 20 40 60 50 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 Signal index (a) 100 150 Signal index 200 250 (b) Figure 4: (a) Marginal posterior means over z obtained using the structured spike and slab model for the signal in figure 3(a). The experiment set-up is the as described in figure 3, except the undersamplingsratio is fixed to N/D = 0.5. (b) The posterior mean of ? superimposed with ? one standard deviation. The green dots indicate the true support. (a) True sources (b) EP, Sq. exponential (c) EP, Diagonal Figure 5: Source localization using synthetic sources. The A ? R128?800 is a submatrix (grey area) of a real EEG forward matrix. (a) True sources. (b) Reconstruction using the true prior , Fsq = 0.78. (c) Reconstruction using a diagonal covariance matrix, Fdiag = 0.34. the results are shown in figure 5(b). We see that the algorithm detects most of the sources correctly, even the small blob on the right hand side. However, it also introduces a small number of false positives in the neighbourhood of the true active sources. The resulting F -measure is Fsq = 0.78. Figure 5(c) shows the result of reconstructing the sources using a diagonal covariance matrix, where Fdiag = 0.34. Here the BG-AMP algorithm is expected to perform poorly due to the heavy violation of the assumption of Aij being Gaussian iid. 4.3 Experiment 3 We have also recreated the Shepp-Logan Phantom experiment from [2] with D = 104 unknowns, K = 1723 non-zero weights, N = 2K observations and SNR = 10dB (see supplementary material for more details). The EP method yields Fsq = 0.994 and NMSEsq = 0.336 for this experiment, whereas BG-AMP yields F = 0.624 and NMSE = 0.717. For reference, the oracle estimator yields NMSE = 0.326. 5 Conclusion and outlook We introduced the structured spike and slab model, which allows incorporation of a priori knowledge of the sparsity pattern. We developed an expectation propagation-based algorithm for Bayesian inference under the proposed model. Future work includes developing a scheme for learning the structure of the sparsity pattern and extending the algorithm to the multiple measurement vector formulation with slowly changing support. 8 References [1] R. Jenatton, G. Obozinski, and F. Bach. Structured sparse principal component analysis. In AISTATS, pages 366?373, 2010. [2] V. Cevher, M. F. Duarte, C. Hegde, and R. G. Baraniuk. Sparse signal recovery using markov random fields. In NIPS, Vancouver, B.C., Canada, 8?11 December 2008. [3] M. Pontil, L. Baldassarre, and J. Mouro-Miranda. Structured sparsity models for brain decoding from fMRI data. 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Estimation with Norm Regularization Arindam Banerjee Sheng Chen Farideh Fazayeli Vidyashankar Sivakumar Department of Computer Science & Engineering University of Minnesota, Twin Cities {banerjee,shengc,farideh,sivakuma}@cs.umn.edu Abstract Analysis of non-asymptotic estimation error and structured statistical recovery based on norm regularized regression, such as Lasso, needs to consider four aspects: the norm, the loss function, the design matrix, and the noise model. This paper presents generalizations of such estimation error analysis on all four aspects. We characterize the restricted error set, establish relations between error sets for the constrained and regularized problems, and present an estimation error bound applicable to any norm. Precise characterizations of the bound is presented for a variety of noise models, design matrices, including sub-Gaussian, anisotropic, and dependent samples, and loss functions, including least squares and generalized linear models. Gaussian width, a geometric measure of size of sets, and associated tools play a key role in our generalized analysis. 1 Introduction Over the past decade, progress has been made in developing non-asymptotic bounds on the estimation error of structured parameters based on norm regularized regression. Such estimators are usually of the form [16, 9, 3]: ??? = argmin L(?; Z n ) + ?n R(?) , (1) n ??Rp where R(?) is a suitable norm, L(?) is a suitable loss function, Z n = {(yi , Xi )}ni=1 where yi ? R, Xi ? Rp is the training set, and ?n > 0 is a regularization parameter. The optimal parameter ?? is often assumed to be ?structured,? usually characterized as low value according to some norm R(?). Since ???n is an estimate of the optimal structure ?? , the focus has been on bounding a suitable ? n = (??? ? ?? ), e.g., the L2 norm k? ? n k2 . function of the error vector ? n To understand the state-of-the-art on non-asymptotic bounds on the estimation error for normregularized regression, four aspects of (1) need to be considered: (i) the norm R(?), (ii) properties of the design matrix X ? Rn?p , (iii) the loss function L(?), and (iv) the noise model, typically in terms of w = y ? E[y|x]. Most of the literature has focused P on a linear model: y = X? + ?, n and a squared-loss function: L(?; Z n ) = n1 ky ? X?k22 = n1 i=1 (yi ? h?, Xi i)2 . Early work on such estimators focussed on the L1 norm [21, 20, 8], and led to sufficient conditions on the design matrix X, including the restricted-isometry properties (RIP) and restricted eigenvalue (RE) conditions [2, 9, 13, 3]. While much of the development has focussed on isotropic Gaussian design matrices, recent work has extended the analysis for L1 norm to correlated Gaussian designs [13] as well as anisotropic sub-Gaussian design matrices [14]. Building on such development, [9] presents a unified framework for the case of decomposable norms and also considers generalized linear models (GLMs) for certain norms such as L1 . Two key insights ? n lies in a restricted set, a cone or are offered in [9]: first, for suitably large ?n , the error vector ? a star, and second, on the restricted error set, the loss function needs to satisfy restricted strong convexity (RSC), a generalization of the RE condition, for the analysis to work out. 1 For isotropic Gaussian design matrices, additional progress has been made. [4] considers a constrained estimation formulation for all atomic norms, where the gain condition, equivalent to the RE condition, uses Gordons inequality [5, 7] and is succinctly represented in terms of the Gaussian width of the intersection of the cone of the error set and a unit ball/sphere. [11] considers three related formulations for generalized Lasso problems, establish recovery guarantees based on Gordons inequality, and quantities related to the Gaussian width. Sharper analysis for recovery has been considered in [1], yielding a precise characterization of phase transition behavior using quantities related to the Gaussian width. [12] consider a linear programming estimator in a 1-bit compressed sensing setting and, interestingly, the concept of Gaussian width shows up in the analysis. In spite of the advances, most of these results are restricted to isotropic Gaussian design matrices. In this paper, we consider structured estimation problems with norm regularization, which substantially generalize existing results on all four pertinent aspects: the norm, the design matrix, the loss, and the noise model. The analysis we present applies to all norms. We characterize the structure of the error set for all norms, develop precise relationships between the error sets of the regularized and constrained versions [2], and establish an estimation error bound in Section 2. The bound depends on the regularization parameter ?n and a certain RSC condition constant ?. In Section 3, for both Gaussian and sub-Gaussian noise ?, we develop suitable characterizations for ?n in terms of the Gaussian width of the unit norm ball ?R = {u|R(u) ? 1}. In Section 4, we characterize the RSC condition for any norm, considering two families of design matrices X ? Rn?p : Gaussian and subGaussian, and three settings for each family: independent isotropic designs, independent anisotropic designs where the rows are correlated as ?p?p , and dependent isotropic designs where the rows are isotropic but columns are correlated as ?n?n , implying dependent samples. In Section 5, we show how to extend the analysis to generalized linear models (GLMs) with sub-Gaussian design matrices and any norm. Our analysis techniques are simple and largely uniform across different types of noise and design matrices. Parts of our analysis are geometric, where Gaussian widths, as a measure of size of suitable sets, and associated tools play a key role [4, 7]. We also use standard covering arguments, use Sudakov-Dudley inequality to switch from covering numbers to Gaussian widths [7], and use generic chaining to upper bound ?sub-Gaussian widths? with Gaussian widths [15]. 2 Restricted Error Set and Recovery Guarantees In this section, we give a characterization of the restricted error set Er in which the error vector ? n lives, establish clear relationships between the error sets for the regularized and constrained ? problems, and finally establish upper bounds on the estimation error. The error bound is deterministic, but has quantities which involve ?? , X, ?, for which we develop high probability bounds in Sections 3, 4, and 5. 2.1 The Restricted Error Set and the Error Cone ? n will belong. We start with a characterization of the restricted error set Er where ? Lemma 1 For any ? > 1, assuming ?n ? ?R? (?L(?? ; Z n )) , ? n = ??? ? ?? belongs to the set the error vector ? n   1 Er = Er (?? , ?) = ? ? Rp R(?? + ?) ? R(?? ) + R(?) . ? (2) (3) The restricted error set Er need not be convex for general norms. Interestingly, for ? = 1, the inequality in (3) is just the triangle inequality, and is satisfied by all ?. Note that ? > 1 restricts the set of ? which satisfy the inequality, yielding the restricted error set. In particular, ? cannot go in the direction of ?? , i.e., ? 6= ??? for any ? > 0. Further, note that the condition in (2) is similar to that in [9] for ? = 2, but the above characterization holds for any norm, not just decomposable norms [9]. 2 While Er need not be a convex set, we establish a relationship between Er and Cc , the cone for the constrained problem [4], where Cc = Cc (?? ) = cone {? ? Rp | R(?? + ?) ? R(?? ) } . (4) Theorem 1 Let Ar = Er ? ?B2p and Ac = Cc ? ?B2p , where B2p = {u|kuk2 ? 1} is the unit ball of `2 norm and ? > 0 is any suitable radius. Then, for any ? > 1 we have   2 k?? k2 w(Ar ) ? 1 + w(Ac ) , (5) ??1 ? where w(A) denotes the Gaussian width of any set A given by: w(A) = Eg [supa?A ha, gi], where g is an isotropic Gaussian random vector. Thus, the Gaussian width of the error sets of regularized and constrained problems are closely related. In particular, for k?? k2 = 1, with ? = 1, ? = 2, we have w(Ar ) ? 3w(Ac ). Related observations have been made for the special case of the L1 norm [2], although past work did not provide an explicit characterization in terms of Gaussian widths. The result also suggests that it is possible to move between the error analysis of the regularized and the constrained versions of the estimation problem. 2.2 Recovery Guarantees In order to establish recovery guarantees, we start by assuming that restricted strong convexity (RSC) is satisfied by the loss function in Cr = cone(Er ), i.e., for any ? ? Cr , there exists a suitable constant ? so that ?L(?, ?? ) , L(?? + ?) ? L(?? ) ? h?L(?? ), ?i ? ?k?k22 . (6) In Sections 4 and 5, we establish precise forms of the RSC condition for a wide variety of design matrices and loss functions. In order to establish recovery guarantees, we focus on the quantity F(?) = L(?? + ?) ? L(?? ) + ?n (R(?? + ?) ? R(?? )) . (7) ? n is the estimated parameter, i.e., ??? is the minimum of the objective, we Since ???n = ?? + ? n ? n ) ? 0, which implies a bound on k? ? n k2 . Unlike previous results, the bound clearly have F(? can be established without making any additional assumptions on the norm R(?). We start with the ? n k2 in terms of the gradient of the objective following result, which expresses the upper bound on k? at ?? . Lemma 2 Assume that the RSC condition is satisfied in Cr by the loss L(?) with parameter ?. With ? n = ??? ? ?? , for any norm R(?), we have ? n 1 k?L(?? ) + ?n ?R(?? )k2 , ? where ?R(?) is any sub-gradient of the norm R(?). ? n k2 ? k? (8) Note that the right hand side is simply the L2 norm of the gradient of the objective evaluated at ?? . For the special case when ???n = ?? , the gradient of the objective is zero, implying correctly ? n k2 = 0. While the above result provides useful insights about the bound on k? ? n k2 , that k? ? the quantities on the right hand side depend on ? , which is unknown. We present another form of the result in terms of quantities such as ?n , ?, and the norm compatibility constant ?(Cr ) = supu?Cr R(u) kuk2 , which are often easier to compute or bound. Theorem 2 Assume that the RSC condition is satisfied in Cr by the loss L(?) with parameter ?. ? n = ??? ? ?? , for any norm R(?), we have With ? n ? n k2 ? k? 1 + ? ?n ?(Cr ) . ? ? (9) The above result is deterministic, but contains ?n and ?. In Section 3, we give precise characterizations of ?n , which needs to satisfy (2). In Sections 4 and 5, we characterize the RSC condition constant ? for different losses and a variety of design matrices. 3 3 Bounds on the Regularization Parameter Recall that the parameter ?n needs to satisfy the inequality ?n ? ?R? (?L(?? ; Z n )) . (10) ? The right hand side of the inequality has two issues: it depends on ? , and it is a random variable, since it depends on Z n . In this section, we characterize E[R? (?L(?? ; Z n ))] in terms of the Gaussian width of the unit norm ball ?R = {u : R(u) ? 1}, and also discuss large deviation bounds around the expectation. For ease of exposition, we present results for the case of squared loss, i.e., 1 L(?? ; Z n ) = 2n ky ? X?? ||2 with the linear model y = X? + ?, where ? can be Gaussian or sub-Gaussian noise. For this setting, ?L(?? ; Z n ) = n1 X T (y ? X?? ) = n1 X T ?. The analysis can be extended to GLMs, using analysis techniques discussed in Section 5. Gaussian Designs: First, we consider Gaussian design X, where xij ? N (0, 1) are independent, and ? is elementwise independent Gaussian or sub-Gaussian noise. Theorem 3 Let ?R = {u : R(u) ? 1}. Then, for Gaussian design X and Gaussian or subGaussian noise ?, for a suitable constant ?0 > 0, we have ?0 E[R? (?L(?? ; Z n ))] ? ? w(?R ) . (11) n Further, for any ? > 0, for suitable constants ?1 , ?2 > 0, with probability at least (1 ? ?1 exp(??2 ? 2 )) ?0 ? R? (?L(?? ; Z n )) ? ? w(?R ) + ? . (12) n n n?p For anisotropic Gaussian design, i.e., when columns have covariance ?p?p , the above pof X ? R result continues to hold with w(?R ) replaced by ?max (?)w(?R ), where ?max (?) denotes the operator norm (largest eigenvalue). For correlated isotropic design, i.e., p when rows of X ? Rn have covariance ?n?n , the result continues to hold with w(?R ) replaced by ?max (?)w(?R ). Sub-Gaussian Designs: Recall that for a sub-Gaussian variable x, the sub-Gaussian norm |||x|||?2 = supp?1 ?1p (E[|x|p ])1/p [18]. Now, we consider sub-Gaussian design X, where |||xij |||?2 ? k and xij are i.i.d., and ? is elementwise independent Gaussian or sub-Gaussian noise. Theorem 4 Let ?R = {u : R(u) ? 1}. Then, for sub-Gaussian design X and Gaussian or subGaussian noise ?, for a suitable constant ?0 > 0, we have ?0 E[R? (?L(?? ; Z n ))] ? ? w(?R ) . (13) n Interestingly, the analysis for the result above involves ?sub-Gaussian width? which can be upper bounded by a constant times the Gaussian width, using generic chaining [15]. Further, one can get Gaussian-like exponential concentration around the expectation for important classes of subGaussian random variables, including bounded random variables [6], and when Xu = hh, ui, where u is any unit vector, are such that their Malliavin derivatives have almost surely bounded norm in R1 L2 [0, 1], i.e., 0 |Dr Xu |2 dr ? ? [19]. Next, we provide a mechanism for bounding the Gaussian width w(?R ) of the unit norm ball in terms of the Gaussian width of a suitable cone, obtained by shifting or translating the norm ball. In particular, the result involves taking any point on the boundary of the unit norm ball, considering that as the origin, and constructing a cone using the norm ball. Since such a construction can be done with any point on the boundary, the tightest bound is obtained by taking the infimum over all points on the boundary. The motivation behind getting an upper bound of the Gaussian width w(?R ) of the unit norm ball in terms of the Gaussian width of such a cone is because considerable advances have been made in recent years in upper bounding Gaussian widths of such cones. Lemma 3 Let ?R = {u : R(u) ? 1} be the unit norm ball and ?R = {u : R(u) = 1} be the ? = sup ? boundary. For any ?? ? ?R , ?(?) ?:R(?)?1 k? ? ?k2 is the diameter of ?R measured with p ? Let G(?) ? = cone(?R ? ?) ? ? ?(?)B ? ? respect to ?. 2 , i.e., the cone of (?R ? ?) intersecting the ball of ? radius ?(?). Then ? . (14) w(?R ) ? inf w(G(?)) ? ??? R 4 4 Least Squares Models: Restricted Eigenvalue Conditions 1 When the loss function is squared loss, i.e., L(?; Z n ) = 2n ky ? X?k2 , the RSC condition (6) becomes equivalent to the Restricted Eigenvalue (RE) condition [2, 9], i.e., n1 kX?k22 ? ?k?k22 , ? 2 ?n for any ? in the error cone Cr . Since the absolute magnitude of or equivalently, kX?k k?k2 ? k?k2 does not play a role in the RE condition, without loss of generality we work with unit vectors u ? A = Cr ? S p?1 , where S p?1 is the unit sphere. In this section, we establish RE conditions for a variety of Gaussian and sub-Gaussian design matrices, with isotropic, anisotropic, or dependent rows, i.e., when samples (rows of X) are correlated. Results for certain types of design matrices for certain types of norms, especially the L1 norm, have appeared in the literature [2, 13, 14]. Our analysis considers a wider variety of design matrices and establishes RSC conditions for any A ? S p?1 , thus corresponding to any norm. Interestingly, the Gaussian width w(A) of A shows up in all bounds, as a geometric measure of the size of the set A, even for sub-Gaussian design matrices. In fact, all existing RE results do implicitly have the width term, but in a form specific to the chosen norm [13, 14]. The analysis on atomic norm in [4] has the w(A) term explicitly, but the analysis relies on Gordon?s inequality [5, 7], which is applicable only for isotropic Gaussian design matrices. The proof technique we use is simple, a standard covering argument, and is largely the same across all the cases considered. A unique aspect of our analysis, used in all the proofs, is a way to go from covering numbers of A to the Gaussian width of A using the Sudakov-Dudley inequality [7]. Our general techniques are in sharp contrast to much of the existing literature on RE conditions, which commonly use specialized tools such as Gaussian comparison principles [13, 9], and/or specialized analysis geared to a particular norm such as L1 [14]. 4.1 Restricted Eigenvalue Conditions: Gaussian Designs In this section, we focus on the case of Gaussian design matrices X ? Rn?p , and consider three settings: (i) independent-isotropic, where the entries are elementwise independent, (ii) independentanisotropic, where rows Xi are independent but each row has a covariance E[Xi XiT ] = ? ? Rp?p , and (iii) dependent-isotropic, where the rows are isotropic but the columns Xj are correlated with E[Xj XjT ] = ? ? Rn?n . For convenience, we assume E[x2ij ] = 1, noting that the analysis easily extends to the general case of E[x2ij ] = ? 2 . Independent Isotropic Gaussian (IIG) Designs: The IIG setting has been extensively studied in the literature [3, 9]. As discussed in the recent work on atomic norms [4], one can use Gordon?s inequality [5, 7] to get RE conditions for the IIG setting. Our goal in this section is two-fold: first, we present the RE conditions obtained using our simple proof technique, and show that it is equivalent, up to constants, the RE condition obtained using Gordon?s inequality, an arguably heavy-duty technique only applicable to the IIG setting; and second, we go over some facets of how we present the results, which will apply to all subsequent RE-style results as well as give a way to plug-in ? in the estimation error bound in (9). Theorem 5 Let the design matrix X ? Rn?p be elementwise independent and normal, i.e., xij ? N (0, 1). Then, for any A ? S p?1 , any n ? 2, and any ? > 0, with probability at least (1 ? ?1 exp(??2 ? 2 )), we have 1? inf kXuk2 ? n ? ?0 w(A) ? ? , (15) u?A 2 ?0 , ?1 , ?2 > 0 are absolute constants. We consider the equivalent result one could obtain by directly using Gordon?s inequality [5, 7]: Theorem 6 Let the design matrix X be elementwise independent and normal, i.e., xij ? N (0, 1). Then, for any A ? S p?1 and any ? > 0, with probability at least (1 ? 2 exp(?? 2 /2)), we have inf kXuk2 ? ?n ? w(A) ? ? , u?A where ?n = E[khk2 ] > ?n n+1 is the expected length of a Gaussian random vector in Rn . 5 (16) Interestingly, the results are equivalent, up to constants. However, unlike Gordon?s inequality, our proof technique generalizes to all the other design matrices considered in the sequel. We emphasize three additional aspects in the context of the above analysis, which will continue to hold for all the subsequent results but will not be discussed explicitly. First, to get a form of the result which can?be used as ? and plugged in to the estimation error bound (9), one can simply choose ? = 12 ( 12 n ? ?0 w(A)) so as to get 1? ?0 inf kXuk2 ? n ? w(A) , (17) u?A 4 2 with high probability. Table 1 shows a summary of recovery bounds on Independent Isotropic Gaussian design matrices with Gaussian noise. Second, the result does not depend on the fact that u ? A ? Cr ? S p?1 so that kuk2 = 1. For example, one can consider the cone Cr to be intersecting with a sphere ?S p?1 of a different radius ?, to give A? = Cr ? ?S p?1 so that u ? A? has kuk2 = ?. For simplicity, let A = ? A1 , i.e., corresponding to ? = 1. Then, a straightforward extension yields inf u?A? kXuk2 ? ( 12 n ? ?0 w(A) ? ? )kuk2 , with probability at least (1 ? ?1 exp(??2 ? 2 )), since u kXuk2 = kX kuk k2 kuk2 and w(Akuk2 ) = kuk2 w(A) [4]. Such a scale independence is in fact 2 necessary for the error bound analysis in Section 2. Finally, note that the leading constant 12 was a consequence of our choice of  = 14 for the -net covering of A in the proof. One can get other constants, less than 1, with different choices of , and the constants ?0 , ?1 , ?2 will change based on this choice. Independent Anisotropic Gaussian (IAG) Designs: We consider a setting where the rows Xi of the design matrix are independent, but each row is sampled from an anisotropic Gaussian distribution, i.e., Xi ? N (0, ?p?p ) where Xi ? Rp . The setting has been considered in the literature [13] for the special case of L1 norms, and sharp results have been established using Gaussian comparison techniques [7]. We show that equivalent results can be obtained by our simple technique, which does not rely on Gaussian comparisons [7, 9]. Theorem 7 Let the design matrix X be row wise independent and each row Xi ? N (0, ?p?p ). Then, for any A ? S p?1 and any ? > 0, with probability at least 1 ? ?1 exp(??2 ? 2 ), we have p 1? ? inf kXuk2 ? ? n ? ?0 ?max (?) w(A) ? ? , (18) u?A 2 p ? where ? = inf u?A k?1/2 uk2 , ?max (?) denotes the largest eigenvalue of ?1/2 and ?0 , ?1 , ?2 > 0 are constants. ? A comparison with the results of [13] is instructive. The leading term ? appears in [13] as well?we have simply considered inf u?A on both sides, and the result in [13] is for any u with ? the k?1/2 uk2 term. The second term in [13] depends on the largest entry in the diagonal of ?, log p, and kuk1 . These terms are a consequence of the special case analysis forp L1 norm. In contrast, we consider the general case and simply get the scaled Gaussian width term ?max (?) w(A). Dependent Isotropic Gaussian (DIG) Designs: We now consider a setting where the rows of the ? are isotropic Gaussians, but the columns X ? j are correlated with E[X ?j X ?T ] = ? ? design matrix X j n?n R . Interestingly, correlation structure over the columns make the samples dependent, a scenario which has not yet been widely studied in the literature [22, 10]. We show that our simple technique continues to work in this scenario and gives a rather intuitive result. ? ? Rn?p be a matrix whose rows X ? i are isotropic Gaussian random vectors in Theorem 8 Let X p ? j are correlated with E[X ?j X ? T ] = ?. Then, for any set A ? S p?1 and any R and the columns X j ? > 0, with probability at least (1 ? ?1 exp(??2 ? 2 ), we have   p 5 3p ? inf kXuk2 ? Tr(?) ? ?max (?) ?0 w(A) + ?? (19) u?A 4 2 where ?0 , ?1 , ?2 > 0 are constants. Note that with the assumption that E[x2ij ] = 1, ? will be a correlation matrix implying Tr(?) = n, and making the sample size dependence explicit. Intuitively, due to sample correlations, n samples n are effectively equivalent to ?Tr(?) = ?max (?) samples. max (?) 6 4.2 Restricted Eigenvalue Conditions: Sub-Gaussian Designs In this section, we focus on the case of sub-Gaussian design matrices X ? Rn?p , and consider three settings: (i) independent-isotropic, where the rows are independent and isotropic, (ii) independentanisotropic, where the rows Xi are independent but each row has a covariance E[Xi XiT ] = ?p?p , and (iii) dependent-isotropic, where the rows are isotropic and the columns Xj are correlated with E[Xj XjT ] = ?n?n . For convenience, we assume E[x2ij ] = 1 and the sub-Gaussian norm |||xij |||?2 ? k [18]. In recent work, [17] also considers generalizations of RE conditions to subGaussian designs, although our proof techniques are different. Independent Isotropic Sub-Gaussian Designs: We start with the setting where the sub-Gaussian design matrix X ? Rn?p has independent rows Xi and each row is isotropic. Theorem 9 Let X ? Rn?p be a design matrix whose rows Xi are independent isotropic subGaussian random vectors in Rp . Then, for any set A ? S p?1 and any ? > 0, with probability at least (1 ? 2 exp(??1 ? 2 )), we have ? inf kXuk2 ? n ? ?0 w(A) ? ? , (20) u?A where ?0 , ?1 > 0 are constants which depend only on the sub-Gaussian norm |||xij |||?2 = k. Independent Anisotropic Sub-Gaussian Designs: We consider a setting where the rows Xi of the design matrix are independent, but each row is sampled from an anisotropic sub-Gaussian distribution, i.e., |||xij |||?2 = k and E[Xi XiT ] = ?p?p . Theorem 10 Let the sub-Gaussian design matrix X be row wise independent, and each row has E[Xi XiT ] = ? ? Rp?p . Then, for any A ? S p?1 and any ? > 0, with probability at least (1 ? 2 exp(??1 ? 2 )), we have ? ? (21) inf kXuk2 ? ? n ? ?0 ?max (?) w(A) ? ? , u?A p ? where ? = inf u?A k?1/2 uk2 , ?max (?) denotes the largest eigenvalue of ?1/2 , and ?0 , ?1 > 0 are constants which depend on the sub-Gaussian norm |||xij |||?2 = k. Note that [14] establish RE conditions for anisotropic sub-Gaussian designs for the special case of L1 norm. In contrast, our results are general and in terms of the Gaussian width w(A). Dependent Isotropic Sub-Gaussian Designs: We consider the setting where the sub-Gaussian de? has isotropic sub-Gaussian rows, but the columns X ? j are correlated with E[X ?j X ?T ] = sign matrix X j ?, implying dependent samples. ? ? Rn?p be a sub-Gaussian design matrix with isotropic rows and correlated Theorem 11 Let X ?j X ? T ] = ? ? Rn?n . Then, for any A ? S p?1 and any ? > 0, with probability at columns with E[X j least (1 ? 2 exp(??1 ? 2 )), we have p ? 2 ? 3 Tr(?) ? ?0 ?max (?)w(A) ? ? , (22) inf kXuk u?A 4 where ?0 , ?1 are constants which depend on the sub-Gaussian norm |||xij |||?2 = k. 5 Generalized Linear Models: Restricted Strong Convexity In this section, we consider the setting where the conditional probabilistic distribution of y|x follows an exponential family distribution: p(y|x; ?) = exp{yh?, xi ? ?(h?, xi)}, where ?(?) is the logpartition function. Generalized linear models consider Pn the negative likelihood of such conditional distributions as the loss function: L(?; Z n ) = n1 i=1 (?(h?, Xi i) ? h?, yi Xi i). Least squares regression and logistic regression are popular special cases of GLMs. Since ??(h?, xi) = E[y|x], we have ?L(?? ; Z n ) = n1 X T ?, where ?i = ??(h?, Xi i) ? yi = E[y|Xi ] ? yi plays the role of noise. Hence, the analysis in Section 3 can be applied assuming ? is Gaussian or sub-Gaussian. To obtain RSC conditions for GLMs, first note that n 1X 2 ?L(?? , ?; Z n ) = ? ?(h?? , Xi i + ?i h?, Xi i)h?, Xi i2 , (23) n i=1 7 Table 1: A summary of various values for L1 and L? norms with all values correct upto constants. R(u) `1 norm `? norm ) ?R ?n := c1 w(? n O q O log p n p p 2n h n  oi2 ? ? := max 1 ? c2 w(A) ,0 n   O (1) O(1) ?(Cr ) ? s 1 ? n k2 := c3 ?(Cr )?n k? ? O q O s log p n p p 2n   where ?i ? [0, 1], by mean value theorem. Since ? is of Legendre type, the second derivative ?2 ?(?) is always positive. Since the RSC condition relies on a non-trivial lower bound for the above quantity, the analysis considers a suitable compact set where ` = `? (T ) = min|a|?2T ?2 ?(a) is bounded away from zero. Outside this compact set, we will only use ?2 ?(?) > 0. Then, n `X ?L(?? , ?; Z n ) ? hXi , ?i2 I[|hXi , ?? i| < T ] I[|hXi , ?i| < T ] . (24) n i=1 We give a characterization of the RSC condition for independent isotropic sub-Gaussian design matrices X ? Rn?p . The analysis can be suitably generalized to the other design matrices considered in Section 4 by using the same techniques. As before, we denote ? as u, and consider u ? A ? S p?1 so that kuk2 = 1. Further, we assume k?? k2 ? c1 for some constant c1 . Assuming X has subGaussian entries with |||xij |||?2 ? k, hXi , ?? i and hXi , ui are sub-Gaussian random variables with sub-Gaussian norm at most Ck. Let ?1 = ?1 (T ; u) = P {|hXi , ui| > T } ? e ? exp(?c2 T 2 /C 2 k 2 ), and ?2 = ?2 (T ; ?? ) = P {|hXi , ?? i| > T } ? e ? exp(?c2 T 2 /C 2 k 2 ). The result we present is in terms of the constants ` = `? (T ), ?1 = ?(T ; u) and ?2 = ?(T, ?? ) for any suitably chosen T . Theorem 12 Let X ? Rn?p be a design matrix with independent isotropic sub-Gaussian rows. Then, for any set A ? S p?1 , any ? ? (0, 1), any ? > 0, and any n ? ?2 (1??2 1 ??2 ) (cw2 (A) +  c3 (1??1 ??2 )5 (1??)? 2 ) for suitable constants c3 and c4 , with probability at least 1?3 exp ??1 ? 2 , c44 k4 we have p  ? ? inf n?L(?? ; u, X) ? ` ? n ? ?0 w(A) ? ? ) , (25) u?A where ? = (1 ? ?)(1 ? ?1 ? ?2 ), ` = `? (T ) = min|a|?2T +K ?2 ?(a), and constants (?0 , ?1 ) depend on the sub-Gaussian norm |||xij |||?2 = k. The form of the result is closely related to the corresponding result for the RE condition on inf u?A kXuk2 in Section 4.2. Note that RSC analysis for GLMs was considered in [9] for specific norms, especially L1 , whereas our analysis applies to any set A ? S p?1 , and hence to any norm. Further, following similar argument structure as in Section 4.2, the analysis for GLMs can be extended to anisotropic and dependent design matrices. 6 Conclusions The paper presents a general set of results and tools for characterizing non-asymptotic estimation error in norm regularized regression problems. The analysis holds for any norm, and includes much of existing literature focused on structured sparsity and related themes as special cases. The work can be viewed as a direct generalization of results in [9], which presented related results for decomposable norms. Our analysis illustrates the important role Gaussian widths, as a geometric measure of size of suitable sets, play in such results. Further, the error sets of regularized and constrained versions of such problems are shown to be closely related [2]. Going forward, it will be interesting to explore similar generalizations for the semi-parametric and non-parametric settings. Acknowledgements: We thank the anonymous reviewers for helpful comments and suggestions on related work. We thank Sergey Bobkov, Snigdhansu Chatterjee, and Pradeep Ravikumar for discussions related to the paper. The research was supported by NSF grants IIS-1447566, IIS-1422557, CCF-1451986, CNS-1314560, IIS-0953274, IIS-1029711, and by NASA grant NNX12AQ39A. 8 References [1] D. Amelunxen, M. Lotz, M. B. McCoy, and J. A. Tropp. Living on the edge: A geometric theory of phase transitions in convex optimization. Inform. Inference, 3(3):224?294, 2013. [2] P. J. Bickel, Y. Ritov, and A. B. Tsybakov. Simultaneous analysis of Lasso and Dantzig selector. Annals of Statistics, 37(4):1705?1732, 2009. [3] P. Buhlmann and S. van de Geer. Statistics for High Dimensional Data: Methods, Theory and Applications. Springer Series in Statistics. Springer, 2011. [4] V. Chandrasekaran, B. Recht, P. A. Parrilo, and A. S. Willsky. The convex geometry of linear inverse problems. Foundations of Computational Mathematics, 12(6):805?849, 2012. [5] Y. Gordon. On Milmans inequality and random subspaces which escape through a mesh in Rn . In Geometric Aspects of Functional Analysis, volume 1317 of Lecture Notes in Mathematics, pages 84?106. Springer, 1988. [6] M. Ledoux. The concentration of measure phenomenon. Mathematical Surveys and Mongraphs. American Mathematical Society. [7] M. Ledoux and M. Talagrand. Probability in Banach Spaces: Isoperimetry and Processes. Springer, 2013. [8] N. Meinshausen and B Yu. Lasso-type recovery of sparse representations for high-dimensional data. The Annals of Statistics, 37(1):246?270, 2009. [9] S. Negahban, P. Ravikumar, M. J. Wainwright, and B. Yu. A unified framework for the analysis of regularized M -estimators. Statistical Science, 27(4):538?557, December 2012. [10] S. Negahban and M. J. Wainwright. Estimation of (near) low-rank matrices with noise and high-dimensional scaling. Annals of Statistics, 39(2):1069?1097, 2011. [11] S. Oymak, C. Thrampoulidis, and B. Hassibi. The Squared-Error of Generalized Lasso: A Precise Analysis. Arxiv, arXiv:1311.0830v2, 2013. [12] Y. Plan and R. Vershynin. Robust 1-bit compressed sensing and sparse logistic regression: A convex programming approach. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 59(1):482?494, 2013. [13] G. Raskutti, M. J. Wainwright, and B. Yu. Restricted Eigenvalue Properties for Correlated Gaussian Designs. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 11:2241?2259, 2010. [14] Z. Rudelson and S. Zhou. Reconstruction from anisotropic random measurements. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 59(6):3434?3447, 2013. [15] M. Talagrand. The Generic Chaining. Springer, 2005. [16] R. Tibshirani. Regression shrinkage and selection via the Lasso. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 58(1):267?288, 1996. [17] J. A. Tropp. Convex recovery of a structured signal from independent random linear measurements. In Sampling Theory, a Renaissance. (To Appear), 2014. [18] R. Vershynin. Introduction to the non-asymptotic analysis of random matrices. In Y. Eldar and G. Kutyniok, editors, Compressed Sensing, chapter 5, pages 210?268. Cambridge University Press, 2012. [19] A. B. Vizcarra and F. G. Viens. Some applications of the Malliavin calculus to sub-Gaussian and non-sub-Gaussian random fields. In Seminar on Stochastic Analysis, Random Fields and Applications, Progress in Probability, volume 59, pages 363?396. Birkhauser, 2008. [20] M. J. Wainwright. Sharp thresholds for noisy and high-dimensional recovery of sparsity using `1 -constrained quadratic programming(Lasso). IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 55:2183?2202, 2009. [21] P. Zhao and B. Yu. On model selection consistency of Lasso. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 7:2541?2567, November 2006. [22] S. Zhou. Gemini: Graph estimation with matrix variate normal instances. The Annals of Statistics, 42(2):532?562, 2014. 9
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Efficient Sampling for Learning Sparse Additive Models in High Dimensions Hemant Tyagi ETH Z?urich htyagi@inf.ethz.ch Andreas Krause ETH Z?urich krausea@ethz.ch Bernd G?artner ETH Z?urich gaertner@inf.ethz.ch Abstract We consider theP problem of learning sparse additive models, i.e., functions of the form: f (x) = l?S ?l (xl ), x ? Rd from point queries of f . Here S is an unknown subset of coordinate variables with |S| = k  d. Assuming ?l ?s to be smooth, we propose a set of points at which to sample f and an efficient randomized algorithm that recovers a uniform approximation to each unknown ?l . We provide a rigorous theoretical analysis of our scheme along with sample complexity bounds. Our algorithm utilizes recent results from compressive sensing theory along with a novel convex quadratic program for recovering robust uniform approximations to univariate functions, from point queries corrupted with arbitrary bounded noise. Lastly we theoretically analyze the impact of noise ? either arbitrary but bounded, or stochastic ? on the performance of our algorithm. 1 Introduction Several problems in science and engineering require estimating a real-valued, non-linear (and often non-convex) function f defined on a compact subset of Rd in high dimensions. This challenge arises, e.g., when characterizing complex engineered or natural (e.g., biological) systems [1, 2, 3]. The numerical solution of such problems involves learning the unknown f from point evaluations (xi , f (xi ))ni=1 . Unfortunately, if the only assumption on f is of mere smoothness, then the problem is in general intractable. For instance, it is well known [4] that if f is C s -smooth then n = ?((1/?)d/s ) samples are needed for uniformly approximating f within error 0 < ? < 1. This exponential dependence on d is referred to as the curse of dimensionality. Fortunately, many functions arising in practice are much better behaved in the sense that they are intrinsically low-dimensional, i.e., depend on only a small subset of the d variables. Estimating such functions has received much attention and has led to a considerable amount of theory along with algorithms that do not suffer from the curse of dimensionality (cf., [5, 6, 7, 8]). Here we focus on the problem of learning one such class of functions, assuming f possesses the sparse additive X structure: f (x1 , x2 , . . . , xd ) = ?l (xl ); S ? {1, . . . , d} , |S| = k  d. (1.1) l?S Functions of the form (1.1) are referred to as sparse additive models (SPAMs) and generalize sparse linear models to which they reduce to if each ?l is linear. The problem of estimating SPAMs has received considerable attention in the regression setting (cf., [9, 10, 11] and references within) where (xi , f (xi ))ni=1 are typically i.i.d samples from some unknown probability measure P. This setting, however, does not consider the possibility of sampling f at specifically chosen points, tailored to the additive structure of f . In this paper, we propose a strategy for querying f , together with an efficient recovery algorithm, with much stronger guarantees than known in the regression setting. In particular, we provide the first results guaranteeing uniformly accurate recovery of each individual component ?l of the SPAM. This can be crucial in applications where the goal is to not merely approximate f , but gain insight into its structure. 1 Related work. SPAMs have been studied extensively in the regression setting, with observations being corrupted with random noise. [9] proposed the COSSO method, which is an extension of the Lasso to the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) setting. A similiar extension was considered in [10]. In [12], the authors propose a least squares method regularized with smoothness, with each ?l lying in an RKHS and derive error rates for estimating f , in the L2 (P) norm1 . [13, 14] propose methods based on least squares loss regularized with sparsity and smoothness constraints. [13] proves consistency of its method in terms of mean squared risk while [14] derives error rates for estimating f in the empirical L2 (Pn ) norm 1 . [11] considers the setting where each ?l lies in an RKHS. They propose a convex program for estimating f and derive error rates for the same, in the L2 (P), L2 (Pn ) norms. Furthermore they establish the minimax optimality of their method for 2s the L2 (P) norm. For instance, they derive an error rate of O((k log d/n) + kn? 2s+1 ) in the L2 (P) s norm for estimating C smooth SPAMs. An estimator similar to the one in [11] was also considered by [15]. They derive similar error rates as in [11], albeit under stronger assumptions on f . There is further related work in approximation theory, where it is assumed that f can be sampled at a desired set of points. [5] considers a setting more general than (1.1), with f simply assumed to depend on an unknown subset of k  d-coordinate variables. They construct a set of sampling points of size O(ck log d) for some constant c > 0, and present an algorithm that recovers a uniform approximation2 to f . This model is generalized in [8], with f assumed to be of the form f (x) = g(Ax) for unknown A ? Rk?d ; each row of A is assumed to be sparse. [7] generalizes this, by removing the sparsity assumption on A. While the methods of [5, 8, 7] could be employed for learning SPAMs, their sampling sets will be of size exponential in k, and hence sub-optimal. Furthermore, while these methods derive uniform approximations to f , they are unable to recover the individual ?l ?s. Our contributions. Our contributions are threefold: 1. We propose an efficient algorithm that queries f at O(k log d) locations and recovers: (i) the active set S along with (ii) a uniform approximation to each ?l , l ? S. In contrast, the existing error bounds in the statistics community [11, 12, 15] are in the much weaker L2 (P) sense. Furthermore, the existing theory in both statistics and approximation theory provides explicit error bounds for recovering f and not the individual ?l ?s. 2. An important component of our algorithm is a novel convex quadratic program for estimating an unknown univariate function from point queries corrupted with arbitrary bounded noise. We derive rigorous error bounds for this program in the L? norm that demonstrate the robustness of the solution returned. We also explicitly demonstrate the effect of noise, sampling density and the curvature of the function on the solution returned. 3. We theoretically analyze the impact of additive noise in the point queries on the performance of our algorithm, for two noise models: arbitrary bounded noise and stochastic (iid) noise. In particular for additive Gaussian noise, we show that our algorithm recovers a robust uniform approximation to each ?l with at most O(k 3 (log d)2 ) point queries of f . We also provide simulation results that validate our theoretical findings. 2 Problem statement For any function g we denote its pth derivative by g (p) when p is large, else we use appropriate number of prime symbols. k g kL? [a,b] denotes the L? norm of g in [a, b]. For a vector x we denote its `q norm for 1 ? q ? ? by k x kq . We consider approximating functions f : Rd ? R from point queries. In particular, for some unknown active SP? {1, . . . , d} with |S| = k  d, we assume f to be of the additive form: f (x1 , . . . , xd ) = l?S ?l (xl ). Here ?l : R ? R are the individual univariate components of the model. Our goal is to query f at suitably chosen points in its domain in order to recover an estimate ?est,l of ?l in a compact subset ? ? R for each l ? S. We measure the approximation error in the L? norm. For simplicity, we assume that ? = [?1, 1], meaning that we guarantee an upper R k f k2L2 (P) = |f (x)|2 dP(x) and k f k2L2 (Pn ) = 2 This means in the L? norm 1 1 n 2 P i f 2 (xi ) bound on: k ?est,l ? ?l kL? [?1,1] ; l ? S. Furthermore, we assume that we can query f from a slight enlargement: [?(1 + r), (1 + r)]d of [?1, 1]d for3 some small r > 0. As will be seen later, the enlargement r can be made arbitrarily close to 0. We now list our main assumptions for this problem. 1. Each ?l is assumed to be sufficiently smooth. In particular we assume that ?l ? C 5 [?(1 + r), (1 + r)] where C 5 denotes five times continuous differentiability. Since [?(1 + r), (1 + r)] is compact, this implies that there exist constants B1 , . . . , B5 ? 0 so that (p) max k ?l l?S kL? [?(1+r),(1+r)] ? Bp ; p = 1, . . . , 5. (2.1) R1 2. We assume each ?l to be centered in the interval [?1, 1], i.e. ?1 ?l (t)dt = 0; l ? S. Such a condition is necessary for unique identification of ?l . Otherwise one could simply P replace each ?l with ?l + al for al ? R where l al = 0 and unique identification will not be possible. 3. We require that for each ?l , ?Il ? [?1, 1] with Il being connected and ?(Il ) ? ? so that |?0l (x)| ? D ; ?x ? Il . Here ?(I) denotes the Lebesgue measure of I and ?, D > 0 are constants assumed to be known to the algorithm. This assumption essentially enables us to detect the active set S. If say ?0l was zero or close to zero throughout [?1, 1] for some l ? S, then due to Assumption 2 this would imply that ?l is zero or close to zero. We remark that it suffices to use estimates for our problem parameters instead of exact values. In particular we can use upper bounds for: k, Bp ; p = 1, . . . , 5 and lower bounds for the parameters: D, ?. Our methods and results stated in the coming sections will remain unchanged. 3 Our sampling scheme and algorithm In this section, we first motivate and describe our sampling scheme for querying f . We then outline our algorithm and explain the intuition behind its different stages. Consider the Taylor expansion of f at any point ? ? Rd along the direction v ? Rd with step size:  > 0. For any C p smooth f ; p ? 2, we obtain for ? = ? + ?v for some 0 < ? <  the following expression: f (? + v) ? f (?) 1 = hv, 5f (?)i + vT 52 f (?)v. (3.1)  2 Note that (3.1) can be interpreted as taking a noisy linear measurement of 5f (?) with the measurement vector v and the noise being the Taylor remainder term. Importantly, due to the sparse additive form of f , we have ?l ? 0, l ? / S, implying that 5f (?) = [?01 (?1 ) ?02 (?2 ) . . . ?0d (?d )] is at most k-sparse. Hence (3.1) actually represents a noisy linear measurement of the k-sparse vector : 5f (?). For any fixed ?, we know from compressive sensing (CS) [16, 17] that 5f (?) can be recovered (with high probability) using few random linear measurements4 . This motivates the following sets of points using which we query f as illustrated in Figure integers mx , mv > 0 we define   i X := ?i = (1, 1, . . . , 1)T ? Rd : i = ?mx , . . . , mx , mx   1 V := vj ? Rd : vj,l = ? ? w.p. 1/2 each; j = 1, . . . , mv and l = 1, . . . , d . mv Using (3.1) at each ?i ? X and vj ? V for i = ?mx , . . . , mx and j = 1, . . . , mv leads to: f (?i + vj ) ? f (?i ) 1 = hvj , 5f (?i )i + vjT 52 f (?i,j )vj , | {z }  2 | {z } | {z } xi yi,j 1. For (3.2) (3.3) (3.4) ni,j P In case f : [a, b]d ? R we can define g : [?1, 1]d ? R where g(x) = f ( (b?a) x + b+a ) = l?S ??l (xl ) 2 2 with ??l (xl ) = ?l ( (b?a) xl + b+a ). We then sample g from within [?(1 + r), (1 + r)]d for some small r > 0 2 2 by querying f , and estimate ??l in [?1, 1] which in turn gives an estimate to ?l in [a, b]. 4 Estimating sparse gradients via compressive sensing has been considered previously by Fornasier et al. [8] albeit for a substantially different function class than us. Hence their sampling scheme differs considerably from ours, and is not tailored for learning SPAMs. 3 3 where xi = 5f (?i ) = [?01 (i/mx ) ?02 (i/mx ) . . . ?0d (i/mx )] is k-sparse. Let us denote V = [v1 . . . vmv ]T , yi = [yi,1 . . . yi,mv ] and ni = [ni,1 . . . ni,mv ]. Then for each i, we can write (3.4) in the succinct form: yi = Vxi + ni . (3.5) Here V ? Rmv ?d represents the linear measurement matrix, yi ? Rmv denotes the measurement vector at ?i and ni represents ?noise? on account of non-linearity of f . Note that we query f at |X | (|V| + 1) = (2mx + 1)(mv + 1) many points. Given yi , V we can recover a robust approximation to xi via `1 minimization [16, 17]. On account of the structure of 5f , we thus recover noisy estimates to ?0l at equispaced points along the interval [?1, 1]. We are now in a position to formally present our algorithm for learning SPAMs. (1 1 . . . 1) Our algorithm for learning SPAMs. The steps involved in our learning scheme are outlined in Algorithm 1. Steps 1-4 involve the CS-based recovery stage wherein we use the aforementioned sampling sets to formulate our problem as a CS one. Step 4 involves a simple thresholding procedure where an appropriate threshold ? is employed to recover the unknown active set S. In Section 4 we provide precise conditions on our sampling parameters which guarantee exact recovery, i.e. Sb = S. Step (?1 ? 1 . . . ? 1) 5 leverages a convex quadratic program (P), that uses noisy estimates of ?0l (i/mx ), i.e., x bi,l for each l ? Sb and i = ?mx , . . . , mx , to return a cubic spline estimate ??0 l . This program and its theoretical properties are Figure 1: The points ?i ? explained in Section 4. Finally, in Step 6 we derive our final estimate X (blue disks) and ?i + vj b Hence our final es- (red arrows) for vj ? V. ?est,l via piecewise integration of ??0 l for each l ? S. timate of ?l is a spline of degree 4. The performance of Algorithm 1 for recovering S and the individual ?l ?s is presented in Theorem 1, which is also our first main result. All proofs are deferred to the appendix. P Algorithm 1 Algorithm for learning ?l in the SPAM: f (x) = l?S ?l (xl ) 1: Choose mx , mv and construct sampling sets X and V as in (3.2), (3.3). 2: Choose step size  > 0. Query f at f (?i ),f (?i +vj ) for i = ?mx , . . . , mx and j = 1, . . . , mv . 3: Construct yi where yi,j = f (?i +vj )?f (?i )  for i = ?mx , . . . , mx and j = 1, . . . , mv . x bi := argmin k z k1 . For ? > 0 compute Sb = ?m 4: Set x xi,l | > ? }. i=?mx {l ? {1, . . . , d} : |b yi =Vz x b run (P) as defined in Section 4 using (b 5: For each l ? S, xi,l )m i=?mx , ? and some smoothing parameter ? ? 0, to obtain ??0 l . b set ?est,l to be the piece-wise integral of ??0 l as explained in Section 4. 6: For each l ? S, Theorem 1. There exist constants C, C1 > 0 such that if mx ? (1/?), mv ? C1 k log d, 0 <  < ? D mv b ? 2 and ? = CkB CkB2 2 mv then with high probability, S = S and for any ? ? 0 the estimate ?est,l returned by Algorithm 1 satisfies for each l ? S: CkB2 87 (5) k ?est,l ? ?l kL? [?1,1] ? [59(1 + ?)] ? + k ?l kL? [?1,1] . mv 64m4x (3.6) Recall that k, B2 , D, ? are our problem parameters introduced in Section 2, while ?is the step size D m parameter from (3.4). We see that with O(k log d) point queries of f and with  < CkB2v , the active set is recovered exactly. The error bound in (3.6) holds for all such choices of . It is a sum of two terms in which the first one arises during the estimation of 5f during the CS stage. The second error term is the interpolation error bound for interpolating ?0l from its samples in the noise-free ? ? setting. We note that our point queries lie in [?(1 + (/ mv )), (1 + (/ mv ))]d . For the stated ? D condition on  in Theorem 1 we have / mv < CkB which can be made arbitrarily close to zero 2 by choosing an appropriately small . Hence we sample from only a small enlargement of [?1, 1]d . 4 4 Analyzing the algorithm We now describe and analyze in more detail the individual stages of Algorithm 1. We first analyze Steps 1-4 which constitute the compressive sensing (CS) based recovery stage. Next, we analyze Step 5 where we also introduce our convex quadratic program. Lastly, we analyze Step 6 where we derive our final estimate ?est,l . Compressive sensing-based recovery stage. This stage of Algorithm 1 involves solving a sequence of linear programs for recovering estimates of xi = [?01 (i/mx ) . . . ?0d (i/mx )] for i = ?mx , . . . , mx . We note that the measurements yi are noisy linear measurements of xi with the noise being arbitrary and bounded. For such a noise model, it is known that `1 minimization results in robust recovery of the sparse signal [18]. Using this result in our setting allows us to quantify the bi ? xi k2 as specified in Lemma 1. recovery error k x Lemma 1. There exist constants c03 ? 1 and C, c01 > 0 such that?for mv satisfying c03 k log d < mv < 0 bi satisfies k x b i ? xi k2 ? d/(log 6)2 we have with probability at least 1 ? e?c1 mv ? e? mv d that x CkB ? 2 for all i = ?mx , . . . , mx . Furthermore, given that this holds and mx ? 1/? is satisfied we 2 mv ? D mv b = S. ? 2 implies that S then have for any  < that the choice ? = CkB CkB2 2 mv bi Thus upon using `1 minimization based decoding at 2mx + 1 points, we recover robust estimates x bi,l of ?0l (i/mx ) for i = ?mx , . . . , mx to xi which immediately gives us estimates ?b0 l (i/mx ) = x and l = 1, . . . , d. In order to recover the active set S, we first note that the spacing between consecutive samples in X is 1/mx . Therefore the condition mx ? 1/? implies on account of Assumption 3 that the sample spacing is fine enough to ensure that for each l ? S, there exists a sample i for which |?0l (i/m x )| ? D holds. The stated choice of the step size  essentially guarantees b0 ?l ? / S, i that ? l (i/mx ) lies within a sufficiently small neighborhood of the origin in turn enabling detection of the active set. Therefore after this stage of Algorithm 1, we have at hand: the active x set (?b0 l (i/mx ))m i=mx for each l ? S. Furthermore, it is easy to see that S along with the estimates: b0 CkB ? (i/mx ) ? ?0 (i/mx ) ? ? = ? 2 , ?l ? S, ?i. l l 2 mv Robust estimation via cubic splines. Our aim now is to recover a smooth, robust estimate to ?0l x by using the noisy samples (?b0 l (i/mx ))m i=mx . Note that the noise here is arbitrary and bounded CkB 2 by ? = 2?mv . To this end we choose to use cubic splines as our estimates, which are essentially piecewise cubic polynomials that are C 2 smooth [19]. There is a considerable amount of literature in the statistics community devoted to the problem of estimating univariate functions from noisy samples via cubic splines (cf., [20, 21, 22, 23]), albeit under the setting of random noise. Cubic splines have also been studied extensively in the approximation theoretic setting for interpolating samples (cf., [19, 24, 25]). We introduce our solution to this problemQin a more general setting. Consider a smooth function g : [t1 , t2 ] ? R and a uniform mesh5 : : t1 = x0 < x1 < ? ? ? < xn?1 < xn = t2 with xi ? xi?1 = h. We have at hand noisy samples: gbi = g(xi ) + ei , with noise ei being arbitrary and bounded: |ei | ? ? . In the noiseless scenario, the problem would be an interpolation one for which a popular class of cubic splines are the ?not-a-knot? cubic splines [24]. These achieve optimal O(h4 ) error rates for C 4 smooth g without using any higher order information about Q g as boundary conditions. Let H 2 [t1 , t2 ] denote the space of cubic splines defined on [t1 , t2 ] w.r.t . We then propose finding the cubic spline estimate as a solution of the following convex optimization problem (in the 4n coefficients of the n cubic polynomials) for some parameter ? ? 0: ? Z t2 ? ? ? min L00 (x)2 dx (4.1) ? ? 2 L?H [t1 ,t2 ] t1 (P) s.t. gbi ? ?? ? L(xi ) ? gbi + ?? ; i = 0, . . . , n, ? ? ? ? 000 + 000 + ? L000 (x? L000 (x? 1 ) = L (x1 ), n?1 ) = L (xn?1 ). (4.2) (4.3) 5 We consider uniform meshes for clarity of exposition. The results in this section can be easily generalized to non-uniform meshes. 5 Note that (P) is a convex QP with linear constraints. The objective function can be verified to be a positive definite quadratic form in the spline coefficients6 . Specifically, the objective measures the total curvature of a feasible cubic spline in [t1 , t2 ]. Each of the constraints (4.2)-(4.3) along Q with the implicit continuity constraints of L(p) ; p = 0, 1, 2 at the interior points of , are linear equalities/inequalities in the coefficients of the piecewise cubic polynomials. (4.3) refers to the nota-knot boundary conditions [24] which are also linear equalities in the spline coefficients. These conditions imply that L000 is continuous7 at the knots x1 , xn?1 . Thus, (P) searches amongst the space of all not-a-knot cubic splines such that L(xi ) lies within a ??? interval of gbi , and returns the smoothest solution, i.e., the one with the least total curvature. The parameter ? ? 0, controls the degree of smoothness of the solution. Clearly, ? = 0 implies interpolating the noisy samples (b gi )ni=0 . As ? increases, the search interval: [b gi ? ??, gbi + ?? ] becomes larger for all i, leading to smoother feasible cubic splines. The following theorem formally describes the estimation properties of (P) and is also our second main result. Theorem 2. For g ? C 4 [t1 , t2 ] let L? : [t1 , t2 ] ? R be a solution of (P) for some parameter ? ? 0. We then have that   118(1 + ?) 29 k L? ? g k? ? ? + h4 k g (4) k? . (4.4) 3 64 Rt We show in the appendix that if t12 (L?00 (x))2 dx > 0, then L? is unique. Note that the error bound (4.4) is a sum of two terms. The first term is proportional to the external noise bound: ? , indicating that the solution is robust to noise. The second term is the error that would arise even if perturbation was absent i.e. ? = 0. Intuitively, if ?? is large enough, then we would expect the solution returned by (P) to be a line. Indeed, a larger value of ?? would imply a larger search interval in (4.2), which if sufficiently large, would allow a line (that has zero curvature) to lie in the feasible region. More 1/2 kg 00 k? ), ? > 1, which if formally, we show in the appendix, sufficient conditions: ? = ?( n ??1 satisfied, imply that the solution returned by (P) is a line. This indicates that if either n is small or g has small curvature, then moderately large values of ? and/or ? will cause the solution returned by (P) to be a line. If an estimate of k g 00 k? is available, then one could for instance, use the upper bound 1 + O(n1/2 k g 00 k? /? ) to restrict the range of values of ? within which (P) is used. Theorem 2 has the following Corollary for estimation of C 4 smooth ?0l in the interval [?1, 1]. The ? 2 proof simply involves replacing: g with ?0l , n + 1 with 2mx + 1, h with 1/mx and ? with CkB 2 mv . As the perturbation ?? is directly proportional to the step size , we show in the appendix that if m mv k?000 l k? additionally  = ?( x ??1 ), ? > 1, holds, then the corresponding estimate ??0 l will be a line. n omx Corollary 1. Let (P) be employed for each l ? S using noisy samples ?b0 l (i/mx ) , and i=?mx ? D m with step size  satisfying 0 <  < CkB2v . Denoting ??0 l as the corresponding solution returned by (P), we then have for any ? ? 0 that:   59(1 + ?) CkB2 29 (5) 0 0 ? k ? l ? ?l kL? [?1,1] ? + k ?l kL? [?1,1] . (4.5) ? 3 mv 64m4x The final estimate. We now derive the final estimate ?est,l of ?l for each l ? S. Denote x0 (= ?1) < x1 < ? ? ? < x2mx ?1 < x2mx (= 1) as our equispaced set of points on [?1, 1]. Since ??0 l : [?1, 1] ? R returned by (P) is a cubic spline, we have ??0 l (x) = ??0 l,i (x) for x ? [xi , xi+1 ] where ??0 l,i is a polynomial of degree at most 3. We then define ?est,l (x) := ??l,i (x) + Fi for x ? [xi , xi+1 ] and i = 0, . . . , 2mx ? 1. Here ??l,i is a antiderivative of ??0 l,i and Fi ?s are constants of integration. Denoting F0 = F , we have that ?est,l is continuous at x1 , . . . , x2mx ?1 for: Fi = Pi?1 ??l,0 (x1 ) + j=1 (??l,j (xj+1 ) ? ??l,j (xj )) ? ??l,i (xi ) + F = Fi0 + F ; 1 ? i ? 2mx ? 1. Hence by denoting ?l,i (?) := ??l,i (?) + Fi0 we obtain ?est,l (?) = ?l (?) + F where ?l (x) = ?l,i (x) for 6 7 Shown in the appendix. f (x? ) = limh?0? f (x + h) and f (x+ ) = limh?0+ f (x + h) denote left,right hand limits respectively. 6 x ? [xi , xi+1 ]. Now on account of Assumption 2, we require ?est,l to also be centered implying R1 F = ? 12 ?1 ?l (x)dx. Hence we output our final estimate of ?l to be: Z 1 1 ?l (x)dx; x ? [?1, 1]. (4.6) ?est,l (x) := ?l (x) ? 2 ?1 Since ?est,l is by construction continuous in [?1, 1], is a piecewise combination of polynomials of degree at most 4, and since ?0est,l is a cubic spline, ?est,l is a spline function of order 4. Lastly, we show in the proof of Theorem 1 that k ?est,l ? ?l kL? [?1,1] ? 3 k ??0 l ? ?0l kL? [?1,1] holds. Using Corollary 1, this provides us with the error bounds stated in Theorem 1. 5 Impact of noise on performance of our algorithm Our third main contribution involves analyzing the more realistic scenario, when the point queries are corrupted with additive external noise z 0 . Thus querying f in Step 2 of Algorithm 1 results in 0 noisy values: f (?i ) + zi0 and f (?i + vj ) + zi,j respectively. This changes (3.5) to the noisy linear 0 system: yi = Vxi + ni + zi where zi,j = (zi,j ? zi0 )/ for i = ?mx , . . . , mx and j = 1, . . . , mv . Notice that external noise gets scaled by (1/), while |ni,j | scales linearly with . Arbitrary 0 bounded noise. In this model, the external noise is arbitrary but bounded, so that < ?; ?i, j. It can be verified along the lines of the proof of Lemma 1 that: k ni + zi k2 ? |zi0 | , zi,j   ? 2? 2 mv  + kB 2mv . Observe that unlike the noiseless setting,  cannot be made arbitrarily close to 0, as it would blow up the impact of the external noise. The following theorem shows that if ? is 2 small relative to D2 < |?0l (x)| , ?x ? Il , l ? S, then8 there exists an interval for choosing , within which Algorithm 1 recovers exactly the active set S. This condition has the natural interpretation that if the signal-to-?external noise? ratio in Il is sufficiently large, then S can be detected exactly. Theorem 3. There exist constants C, C1 ? > 0 such that if ? < D2 /(16C 2 kB2 ), mx ? (1/?), and p D mv mv ? C1 k log d hold, then for any  ? 2CkB2 [1 ? A, 1 + A] where A := 1 ? (16C 2 kB2 ?)/D2   ? and ? = mv 2? + kB2 , we have in Algorithm 1, with high probability, that Sb = S and for any  ? ? 0, for each l ? S: 2mv k ?est,l ? ?l kL? [?1,1] ? [59(1 + ?)]   ? 4C mv ? CkB2 87 (5) + ? k ?l kL? [?1,1] . (5.1) +  mv 64m4x Stochastic noise. In this model, the external noise is assumed to be i.i.d. Gaussian, so that 0 zi0 , zi,j ? N (0, ? 2 ); i.i.d. ?i, j. In this setting we consider resampling f at the query point N times and then averaging the noisy samples, in order to reduce ?. Given this, we now have that 2 0 zi0 , zi,j ? N (0, ?N ); i.i.d. ?i, j. Using standard tail-bounds for Gaussians, we can show that for 0 any ? > 0 if N is chosen large enough then: |zi,j | = zi0 ? zi,j ? 2?; ?i, j with high probability. Hence the external noise zi,j would be bounded with high probability and the analysis for Theorem 3 can be used in a straightforward manner. Of course, an advantage that we have in this setting is that ? can be chosen to be arbitrarily close to zero by choosing a correspondingly large value of N . We state all this formally in the form of the following theorem. Theorem 4. There exist constants C, C1 > 0 such that for ? < D2 /(16C 2 kB2 ), mx ? (1/?), and  mv ? C1 k log d, if we re-sample each query in Step 2 of Algorithm 1: N > ? D m ?2 ?2 ? log 2? ?p |X | |V| times for 0 < p < 1, and average the values, then for any  ? 2CkBv2 [1 ? A, 1 + A] where A :=   p ? kB2 1 ? (16C 2 kB2 ?)/D2 and ? = mv 2? +  2mv , we have in Algorithm 1, with probability at least 1 ? p ? o(1), that Sb = S and for any ? ? 0, for each l ? S:  ?  4C mv ? CkB2 87 (5) k ?est,l ? ?l kL? [?1,1] ? [59(1 + ?)] + ? + k ?l kL? [?1,1] . (5.2)  mv 64m4x 8 Il is the ?critical? interval defined in Assumption 3 for detecting l ? S. 7 Note that we query f now N |X | (|V| + 1) times. Also, |X | = (2mx + 1) = ?(1), and ? = O(k ?1 ), as D, C, B2 , ? are constants. Hence the choice |V| = O(k log d) gives us N = O(k 2 log(p?1 k 2 log d)) and leads to an overall query complexity of: O(k 3 log d log(p?1 k 2 log d)) when the samples are corrupted with additive Gaussian noise. Choosing p = O(d?c ) for any constant c > 0 gives us a sample complexity of O(k 3 (log d)2 ), and ensures that the result holds with high probability. The o(1) term goes to zero exponentially fast as d ? ?. Simulation results. We now provide simulation results on synthetic data to support our theoretical findings. We consider the noisy setting with the point queries being corrupted with Gaussian noise. For d = 1000, k = 4 and S = {2, 105, 424, 782}, consider f : Rd ? R where f = ?2 (x2 ) + ?105 (x105 ) + ?424 (x424 ) + ?782 (x782 ) with: ?2 (x) = sin(?x), ?105 (x) = exp(?2x), ?424 (x) = (1/3) cos3 (?x) + 0.8x2 , ?782 (x) = 0.5x4 ? x2 + 0.8x. We choose ? = 0.3, D = 0.2 which can be verified as valid parameters for the above ?l ?s. Furthermore, we choose mx = d2/?e = 7 and mv = d2k log de = 56 to satisfy the conditions of Theorem 4. Next, we choose constants 2 C = 0.2, B2 = 35 and ? = 0.95 16CD2 kB2 = 4.24 ? 10?4 as required by Theorem 4. For the choice ? D m  = 2CkBv2 = 0.0267, we then query f at (2mx + 1)(mv + 1) = 855 points. The function values are corrupted with Gaussian noise: N (0, ? 2 /N ) for ? = 0.01 and N = 100. This is equivalent to resampling and averaging the points queries N times. Importantly the sufficient condition on N , as ? 2?|X ||V| ?2 stated in Theorem 4 is d ?2 log( )e = 6974 for p = 0.1. Thus we consider a significantly ?p   ? kB2 undersampled regime. Lastly we select the threshold ? = mv 2? + = 0.2875 as stated  2mv by Theorem 4, and employ Algorithm 1 for different values of the smoothing parameter ?. 0 ?0.5 ?1 ?1 ?0.5 0 x 0.5 (a) Estimates of ?2 1 4 2 0 ?2 ?1 ?0.5 0 x 0.5 1 (b) Estimates of ?105 0.3 1 0.2 0.5 ?782 , ?est,782 ?105 , ?est,105 ?2 , ?est,2 0.5 ?424 , ?est,424 6 1 0.1 0 ?0.1 ?0.2 ?1 ?0.5 0 x 0.5 (c) Estimates of ?424 1 0 ?0.5 ?1 ?1.5 ?1 ?0.5 0 x 0.5 1 (d) Estimates of ?782 Figure 2: Estimates ?est,l of ?l (black) for: ? = 0.3 (red), ? = 1 (blue) and ? = 5 (green). The results are shown in Figure 2. Over 10 independent runs of the algorithm we observed that S was recovered exactly each time. Furthermore we see from Figure 2 that the recovery is quite accurate for ? = 0.3. For ? = 1 we notice that the search interval ?? = 0.2875 becomes large enough so as to cause the estimates ?est,424 , ?est,782 to become relatively smoother. For ? = 5, the search interval ?? = 1.4375 becomes wide enough for a line to fit in the feasible region for ?0424 , ?0782 . This results in ?est,424 , ?est,782 to be quadratic functions. In the case of ?02 , ?0105 , the search interval is not sufficiently wide enough for a line to lie in the feasible region, even for ? = 5. 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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 52(4):947?950, 1964. [21] C.M. Reinsch. Smoothing by spline functions. Numer. Math, 10:177?183, 1967. [22] G. Wahba. Smoothing noisy data with spline functions. Numerische Mathematik, 24(5):383? 393, 1975. [23] P. Craven and G. Wahba. Smoothing noisy data with spline functions. Numerische Mathematik, 31(4):377?403, 1978. [24] C. de Boor. A practical guide to splines. Springer Verlag (New York), 1978. [25] C.A. Hall and W.W. Meyer. Optimal error bounds for cubic spline interpolation. Journal of Approximation Theory, 16(2):105 ? 122, 1976. 9
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Deterministic Symmetric Positive Semidefinite Matrix Completion William E. Bishop1,2 , Byron M. Yu2,3,4 Machine Learning, 2 Center for the Neural Basis of Cognition, 3 Biomedical Engineering, 4 Electrical and Computer Engineering Carnegie Mellon University {wbishop, byronyu}@cmu.edu 1 Abstract We consider the problem of recovering a symmetric, positive semidefinite (SPSD) matrix from a subset of its entries, possibly corrupted by noise. In contrast to previous matrix recovery work, we drop the assumption of a random sampling of entries in favor of a deterministic sampling of principal submatrices of the matrix. We develop a set of sufficient conditions for the recovery of a SPSD matrix from a set of its principal submatrices, present necessity results based on this set of conditions and develop an algorithm that can exactly recover a matrix when these conditions are met. The proposed algorithm is naturally generalized to the problem of noisy matrix recovery, and we provide a worst-case bound on reconstruction error for this scenario. Finally, we demonstrate the algorithm?s utility on noiseless and noisy simulated datasets. 1 Introduction There are multiple scenarios where we might wish to reconstruct a symmetric positive semidefinite (SPSD) matrix from a sampling of its entries. In multidimensional scaling, for example, pairwise distance measurements are used to form a kernel matrix and PCA is performed on this matrix to embed the data in a low-dimensional subspace. However, due to constraints, it may not be possible to measure pairwise distances for all variables, rendering the kernel matrix incomplete. In neuroscience a population of neurons is often modeled as driven by a low-dimensional latent state [1], producing a low-rank covariance structure in the observed neural recordings. However, with current technology, it may only be possible to record from a large population of neurons in small, overlapping sets [2,3], leaving holes in the empirical covariance matrix. More generally, SPSD matrices in the form of Gram matrices play a key role in a broad range of machine learning problems such as support vector machines [4], Gaussian processes [5] and nonlinear dimensionality reduction techniques [6] and the reconstruction of such matrices from a subset of their entries is of general interest. In real world scenarios, the constraints that make it difficult to observe a whole matrix often also constrain which particular entries of a matrix are observable. In such settings, existing matrix completion results, which assume matrix entries are revealed in an unstructured, random manner [7?14] or the ability to finely query individual entries of a matrix in an adaptive manner [15, 16] might not be applicable. This motivates us to examine the problem of recovering a SPSD matrix from a given, deterministic set of its entries. In particular we focus on reconstructing a SPSD matrix from a revealed set of its principal submatrices. Recall that a principal submatrix of a matrix is a submatrix obtained by symmetrically removing rows and columns of the original matrix. When individual entries of a matrix are formed by pairwise measurements between experimental variables, principal submatrices are a natural way to formally capture how entries are revealed. 1 A B Figure 1: (A) An example A matrix with two principal submatrices, showing the correspondence between A(?l , ?l ) and C(?l , :). (B) Mapping of C1 and C2 to C, illustrating the role of ?l , ?l and ?l . Sampling principal submatrices also allows for an intuitive method of matrix reconstruction. As shown in Fig. 1, any n ? n rank r SPSD matrix A can be decomposed as A = CC T for some C ? Rn?r . Any principal submatrix of A can also be decomposed in the same way. Further, if ?i is an ordered set indexing the the ith principal submatrix of A, it must be that A(?i , ?i ) = C(?i , :)C(?i , :)T .1 This suggests we can decompose each A(?i , ?i ) to learn the the rows of C and then reconstruct A from the learned C, but there is one complication. Any matrix, C(?i , :), such that A(?i , ?i ) = C(?i , :)C(?i , :)T , is only defined up to an orthonormal transformation. The na??ve algorithm just suggested has no way of ensuring the rows of C learned from two different principal submatrices are consistent with respect to this degeneracy. Fortunately, the situation is easily remedied if the principal submatrices in question have some overlap, so that the C(?i , :) matrices have some rows that map to each other. Under appropriate conditions explored below, we can learn unique orthonormal transformations rendering these rows equal, allowing us to align the C(?i , :) matrices to learn a proper C. Contributions In this paper, we make the following contributions. 1. We prove sufficient conditions, which are also necessary in certain situations, for the exact recovery of a SPSD matrix from a given set of its principal submatrices. 2. We present a novel algorithm which exactly recovers a SPSD matrix when the sufficient conditions are met. 3. The algorithm is generalized when the set of observed principal submatrices of a matrix are corrupted by noise. We present a theorem guaranteeing a bound on reconstruction error. 1.1 Related Work The low rank matrix completion problem has received considerable attention since the work of Cand`es and Recht [17] who demonstrated that a simple convex problem could exactly recover many low-rank matrices with high probability. This work, as did much of what followed (e.g., [7?9]), made three key assumptions. First, entries of a matrix were assumed to be uncorrupted by noise and, second, revealed in a random, unstructured manner. Finally, requirements, such as incoherence, were also imposed to rule out matrices with most of their mass concentrated in a only a few entries. These assumptions have been reexamined and relaxed in additional work. The case of noisy observed entries has been considered in [10?14]. Others have reduced or removed the requirements for incoherence by using iterative, adaptive sampling schemes [15, 16]. Finally, recent work [18, 19] has considered the case of matrix recovery when entries are selected a deterministic manner. 1 Throughout this work we will use MATLAB indexing notation, so C(?i , :) is the submatrix of C made up of the rows indexed by the ordered set ?i . 2 Our work considerably differs from this earlier work. Our applications of interest allow us to assume much structure, i.e., that matrices are SPSD, which our algorithm exploits, and our sufficient conditions make no appeal to incoherence. Our work also differs from previous results for deterministic sampling schemes (e.g., [18, 19]), which do not consider noise nor provide sufficient conditions for exact recovery, instead approaching the problem as one of matrix approximation. Previous work has also considered the problem of completing SPSD matrices of any [20] or low rank [21,22]. Our work to identify conditions for a unique completion of a given rank can be viewed as a continuation of this work where our sufficient and necessary conditions can be understood in a particularly intuitive manner due to our sampling scheme. Finally, the Nystr?om method [23] is a well known technique for approximating a SPSD matrix as low rank. It can also be applied to the matrix recovery problem, and in the noiseless case, sufficient conditions for exact recovery are known [24]. However, the Nystr?om method requires sampling full columns and rows of the original matrix, a sampling scheme which may not be possible in many of our applications of interest. 2 Preliminaries 2.1 Deterministic Sampling for SPSD Matrices We denote the set of index pairs for the revealed entries of a matrix by ?. Formally, an index pair, (i, j), is in ? if and only if we observe the corresponding entry of an n ? n matrix so that ? ? [n] ? [n].2 In this work, we assume ? indexes a set of principal submatrices of a matrix. Let ?l ? ? indicate a subset of ?. If ?l indexes a principal submatrix of a matrix, it can be compactly described by the unique set of row (or equivalently column) indices it contains. Let ?{?l } = {i|(i, j) ? ?l } be the set of row indices contained in ?l . For compactness, let ?l = ?{?l }. Finally, let | ? | indicate cardinality. Then, for an n ? n matrix, A, of rank r we make the following assumptions on ?. (A1) ?{?} = [n]. (A2) There exists a collection ?1 , . . . , ?k of subsets of ? such that ? = ?kl=1 ?l , and for each ?l , (i, i) ? ?l and (j, j) ? ?l if and only if (i, j) ? ?l and (j, i) ? ?l . (A3) There exists a collection ?1 , . . . , ?k of subsets of ? such that A2 holds  and if k > 1, there exists an ordering ?1 , . . . , ?k such that for all i ? 2, |??i ? ?i?1 j=1 ??j | ? r. The first assumption ensures ? indexes at least one entry for each row of A. Assumption A2 requires that ? indexes a collection of principal submatrices of A, and A3 allows for the possible alignment of rows of C (recall, A = CC T ) estimated from each principal submatrix. 2.2 Additional Notation n n Denote the set of real, n ? n SPSD matrices by S+ , and let A ? S+ be the rank r matrix to be ? recovered. For the noisy case, A will indicate a perturbed version of A. We will use the notation Al to indicate the principal submatrix of a matrix A indexed by ?l . Denote the eigendecomposition of A as A = E?E T for the diagonal matrix ? ? Rr?r containing the non-zero eigenvalues of A, ?1 ? . . . ? ?r , along its diagonal and the matrix E n?r containing the corresponding eigenvectors of A in its columns. Let nl denote the size of Al and rl the rank. nl Because Al is a principal submatrix of A, it follows that Al ? S+ . Denote the eigendecomposition T rl ?rl and El ? Rnl ,rl . We add tildes to the of each Al as Al = El ?l El for the matrices ?l ? R appropriate symbols for the eigendecomposition of A? and its principal submatrices. Finally, let ?l = ??l ? (?j=1,...,l?1 ??j ) be the intersection of the indices for the lth principal submatrix with the indices of the all of the principal submatrices ordered before it. Let Cl be a matrix such that Cl ClT = Al . If Al is a principal submatrix of A there will exist some Cl such that C(?l , :) = Cl . For such a Cl , let ?l be an index set that assigns the rows of the matrix C(?l , :) to their location in Cl , so that C(?l , :) = Cl (?l , :) and let ?l assign the rows of C(?l \ ?l , :) to their 2 We use the notation, [n] to indicate the set {1, . . . , n}. 3 ?l , ? ? l , ?l , ?l , ?l , ?l , ?l }k ) Algorithm 1 SPSD Matrix Recovery (r, {E l=1 Initialize C? as a n ? r matrix. ? ? , :) ? E ?? (:, 1 : r)? ? 1/2 1. C(? ?1 (1 : r, 1 : r) 1 1 2. For l ? {2, . . . , k} ?? (:, 1 : r)? ? 1/2 (a) C?l ? E ?l (1 : r, 1 : r) l ? l ? argminW W T =I ||C(? ? l , :) ? C?l (?l , :)W ||2 (b) W F ? ? \ ?l , :) ? C?l (?l , :)W ?l (c) C(? l T ? ? ? 3. Return A = C C location in Cl , so that C(?l \ ?l , :) = Cl (?l , :). The role of ?l , ?l , ?l and ?l is illustrated for the case of two principal submatrices with ?1 = 1, ?2 = 2 in Figure 1. 3 The Algorithm Before establishing a set of sufficient conditions for exact matrix completion, we present our algorithm. Except for minor notational differences, the algorithms for the noiseless and noisy matrix recovery scenarios are identical, and for brevity we present the algorithm for the noisy scenario. Let ? sample the observed entires of A? so that A1 through A3 hold. Assume each perturbed principal submatrix, A?l , indexed by ? is SPSD and of rank r or greater. These assumptions on each ?l ? ? lE ? T , and form a rank r A?l will be further explored in section 5. Decompose each A?l as A?l = E l 1/2 ?l (:, 1 : r)? ? (1 : r, 1 : r). matrix C?l as C?l = E l The rows of the C?l matrices contain estimates for the rows of C such that A = CC T , though rows estimated from different principal submatrices may be expressed with respect to different orthonormal transformations. Without loss of generality, assume the principal submatrices are labeled so ? 1 , :) = C?1 . In this that ?1 = 1, . . . , ?k = k. Our algorithm begins to construct C? by estimating C(? ? ? step, we also implicitly choose to express C with respect to the basis for C1 . We then iteratively add ? for each C?l adding the rows C?l (?l , :) to C. ? To estimate the orthornormal transformation rows to C, to align the rows of C?l with the rows of C? estimated in previous iterations, we solve the following optimization problem 2 ? l = argmin C(? ? l , :) ? C?l (?l , :)W . W F W W T =I (1) ? l so that the rows of C?l which overlap with the previously In words, equation 1 estimates W ? estimated rows of C match as closely as possible. In the noiseless case, (1) is equivalent to ? l = W : C(? ? i , :) ? C?l (?i , :)W = 0. Equation 1 is known as the Procrustes problem and is W non-convex, but its solution can be found in closed form and sufficient conditions for its unique solution are known [25]. ? l for each C?l , we build up the estimate for C? by setting C(? ? l \ ?l , :) = C?l (?l , :)W ? l. After learning W This step adds the rows of C?l that do not overlap with those already added to C? to the growing ? If we process principal submatrices in the order specified by A3, this algorithm will estimate of C. ? The full matrix A? can then be estimated as A? = C? C. ? The generate a complete estimate for C. pseudocode for this algorithm is given in Algorithm 1. 4 The Noiseless Case We begin this section by stating one additional assumption on A. 4 (A4) There exists a collection ?1 , . . . , ?k of subsets of ? such that A2 holds and if k > 1, there exists an ordering ?1 , . . . , ?k such that the rank of A(?l , ?l ) is equal to r for each l ? {2, . . . , k}. In Theorem 2 we show that A1 - A4 are sufficient to guarantee the exact recovery of A. Conditions A1 - A4 can also be necessary for the unique recovery of A by any method, as we show next in Theorem 1. Theorem 1 may at first glance appear quite simple, but it is a restatement of Lemma 6 in the appendix, from which more general necessity results can be derived. Specifically, Corollary 7 in the appendix can be used to establish the above conditions are necessary to recover A from a set of its principal submatrices which can be aligned in a overlapping sequence (e.g., submatrices running down the diagonal of A), which might be encountered when constructing a covariance matrix from sequentially sampled subgroups of variables. Corollary 8 establishes a similar result when there exists a set of principal submatrices which have no overlap among themselves but all overlap with one other submatrix not in the set, and Corollary 9 establishes that it is sufficient to find just one principal submatrix that obeys certain conditions with respect to the rest of the sampled entries of the matrix to certify the impossibility of matrix completion. This last corollary in fact applies even when the rest of the sampled entries do not fall into a union of principal submatrices of the matrix. Theorem 1. Let ? 6= [n] ? [n] index A so that A2 holds for some ?1 ? ? and ?2 ? ?. Then A1, A3 and A4 must hold with respect to ?1 and ?2 for A to be recoverable by any method. The proof can be found in the appendix. Here we briefly provide the intuition. Key to understanding the proof is recognizing that recovering A from the set of entries indexed by ? is equivalent to learning a matrix C from the same set of entries such that A = CC T . If A1 is not met, a complete row and the corresponding column of A is not sampled, and there is nothing to constrain the estimate for the corresponding row of C. If A3 and A4 are not met, we can construct a C such that all of the entries of the matrices A and CC T indexed by ? are identical yet A 6= CC T . We now show that our algorithm can recover A as soon as the above conditions are met, establishing their sufficiency. Theorem 2. Algorithm 1 will exactly recover A from a set of its principal submatrices indexed by ?1 , . . . , ?k which meets conditions A1 through A4. The proof, which is provided in the appendix, shows that in the noiseless case, for each principal submatrix, Al , of A, step 2a of Algorithm 1 will learn an exact C?l such that Al = C?l C?lT . Further, when assumptions A3 and A4 are met, step 2b will correctly learn the orthonormal transformation ? Therefore, progressive iterations of step 2 to align each C?l to the previously added rows of C. ? correctly learn more and more rows of a unified C. As the algorithm progresses, all of the rows of C? are learned and the entirety of A can be recovered in step 3 of the algorithm. It is instructive to ask what we have gained or lost by constraining ourselves to sampling principal submatrices. In particular, we can ask how many individual entries must be observed before we can recover a matrix. A SPSD matrix has at least nr degrees of freedom, and we would not expect any matrix recovery method to succeed before at least this many entries of the original matrix are revealed. The next theorem establishes that our sampling scheme is not necessarily wasteful with respect to this bound. n Theorem 3. For any rank r ? 1 matrix A ? S+ there exists a ? such that A1 ? A3 hold and |?| ? n(2r + 1). Of course, this work is motivated by real-world scenarios where we are not at the liberty to finely select the principal submatrices we sample, and in practice we may often have to settle for a set of principal submatrices which sample more of the matrix. However, it is reassuring to know that our sampling scheme does not necessarily require a wasteful number of samples. We note that assumptions A1 through A4 have an important benefit with respect to a requirement of incoherence. Incoherence is an assumption about the entire row and column space of a matrix and cannot be verified to hold with only the observed entries of a matrix. However, assumptions A1 through A4 can be verified to hold for a matrix of known rank using its observed entries. Thus, it is possible to verify that these assumptions hold for a given ? and A and provide a certificate guaranteeing exact recovery before matrix completion is attempted. 5 5 The Noisy Case We analyze the behavior of Algorithm 1 in the presence of noise. For simplicity, we assume each observed, noise corrupted principal submatrix is SPSD so that the eigendecompositions in steps 1 ? A4 and 2a of the algorithm are well defined. In the noiseless case, to guarantee the uniqueness of A, ? l , ?l ), required each A(?l , ?l ) to be of rank r. In the noisy case, we place a similar requirement on A(? ? l , ?l ) may be larger than r due to noise. where we recognize that the rank of each A(? (A5) There exists a collection ?1 , . . . , ?k of subsets of ? such that A2 holds and if k > 1, ? l , ?l ) is greater than or equal to there exists an ordering ?1 , . . . , ?k such that the rank of A(? r for each l ? {2, . . . , k}. nl (A6) There exists a collection ?1 , . . . , ?k of subsets of ? such that A2 holds and A?l ? S+ for each l ? {1, . . . , k}. In practice, any A?l which is not SPSD can be decomposed into the sum of a symmetric and an antisymmetric matrix. The negative eigenvalues of the symmetric matrix can then be set to zero, rendering a SPSD matrix. As long as this resulting matrix meets the rank requirement in A5, it can ? be used in place of A?l . Our algorithm can then be used without modification to estimate A. Theorem 4. Let ? index an n?n matrix A? which is a perturbed version of the rank r matrix A such that A1 ? A6 simultaneously hold for a collection of principal submatrices indexed by ?1 , . . . , ?k . Let b ? maxl?[k] ||Cl ||F for some Cl ? Rnl ?r such that Al = Cl ClT , ? ? ?l,1 , and ? ? min{mini?[r?1], |?l,i ? ?l,i+1 |, ?l,r }. Assume ||Aln? A?l ||F ?  for oall l for some  < ? l , :) = r for all l ? 2, min{b2 /r, ?/2, 1}. Then if in step 2 of Algorithm 1, rank C?l (?l , :)T C(? Algorithm 1 will estimate an A? from the set of principal submatrices of A? indexed by ? such that ? A ? A? ? 2Gk?1 L||C||F r + G2k?2 L2 r, F where C ? Rn?rq is some matrix such that A = CC T , G = 4 + 12/v, and v ? ?r (A(?r , ?r ))/b2 for all l and L = 1+ 16? ?2 + ? 8 2? 1/2 . ? 3/2 The proof is left to the appendix and is accomplished in two parts. In the first part, we guarantee that the ordered eigenvalues and eigenvectors of each A?l , which are the basis for estimating each C?l , will not be too far from those of the corresponding Al . In the second part, we bound the amount ? matrices which result in slight of additional error that can be introduced by learning imperfect W ? ? This misalignments as each Cl matrix is incorporated into the final estimate for the complete C. second part relies on a general perturbation bound for the Procrustes problem, derived as Lemma 16 in the appendix. Our error bound is non-probabilistic and applies in the presence of adversarial noise. While we know of no existing results for the recovery of matrices from deterministic samplings of noise corrupted entries, we can compare our work to bounds obtained for various results applicable to random sampling schemes, (e.g., [10?13]). These results require either incoherence [10, 11], boundedness [13] of the entries of the matrix to be recovered or assume the sampling scheme obeys the restricted isometry property [12]. Error is measured with various norms, but in all cases shows a linear dependence on the size of the original perturbation. For this initial analysis, our bound establishes that reconstruction error consistently goes to 0 with perturbation size, and we conjecture that with a refinement of our proof technique we can prove a linear dependence on . We provide initial evidence for this conjecture in the results below. 6 Simulations We demonstrate our algorithm?s performance on simulated data, starting with the noiseless setting in Fig. 2. Fig. 2A shows three sampling schemes, referred to as masks, that meet assumptions A1 6 A Example Deterministic Sampling Schemes for SPSD Matrix Completion True Matrix Block Diagonal Mask Completion Success with Matrix Rank for B Three Sampling Schemes with Success S = Block Diagonal = Full Column = Random Failure F 20 20 25 25 C Completion Success of the Block Diagonal 0 Sampling Scheme Random Mask Overlap Full Columns Mask 15 10 10 15 Rank Rank 55 54 1 Rank 55 Figure 2: Noiseless simulation results. (A) Example masks for successful completion of a rank 4 matrix. (B) Completion success as rank is varied for masks with minimal overlap (minl |?l |) of 10. (C) Completion success for rank 1 ? 55 matrices with block diagonal masks with minimal overlap ranging between 0 ? 54. through A3 for a randomly generated 40 ? 40 rank 4 matrix. In all of the noiseless simulations, we n simulate a rank r matrix A ? S+ by first randomly generating a C ? Rn?r with entries individually drawn from a N (0, 1) distribution and forming A as A = CC T . The block diagonal mask is formed from 5 ? 5 principal submatrices running down the diagonal, each principal submatrix overlapping the one to its upper left. Such a mask might be encountered in practice if we obtain pairwise measurements from small sets of variables sequentially. The lth principal submatrix of the full columns mask is formed by sampling all pairs of entires, (i, j) indexed by i, j ? {1, 2, 3, 4, l+4} and might be encountered when obtaining pairwise measurements between sets of variables, where some small number of variables is present in all sets. The random mask is formed from principal submatrices randomly generated to conform to assumptions A1 through A3 and demonstrates that masks with non-obvious structure in the underlying principal submatrices can conform to assumptions A1 through A3. Algorithm 1 correctly recovers the true matrix from all three masks. In panel Fig. 2B, we modify these three types of masks so that minl |?l |, the minimal overlap of a principal submatrix with those ordered before it, is 10 for each and attempt to reconstruct random matrices of size 55?55 and increasing rank. Corollaries 7?9 in the appendix, which can be derived from Theorem 1 above, can be applied to these scenarios to establish the necessity that minl |?l | be greater than r for a rank r matrix. As predicted, for all masks recovery is successful for all matrices of rank 10 or less and unsuccessful for matrices of greater rank. In Fig. 2C, we show this is not unique to masks with minimal overlap of 10. Here we generate block diagonal masks with minimal overlap between the principal submatrices varying between 0 and 54. For each overlap value, we then attempt to recover matrices of rank 1 through o + 1, where o is the minimal overlap value. To guard against false positives, we randomly generated 10 matrices of a specified rank for each mask and only indicated success in black if matrix completion was successful in all cases. As predicted by theory, matrix completion failed exactly when the rank of the underlying matrix exceeded the minimal overlap value of the mask. Identical results were obtained for the full column and random masks. We provide evidence the dependence on  in Theorem 4 should be linear in Fig. 3. We generate random 55 ? 55 matrices of rank 1 through 10. Matrices were generated as in the noiseless scenario and normalized to have a Frobenius norm of 1. We use a block diagonal mask with 25?25 blocks and 7 A Noisy Matrix Reconstruction Error ?4 6 x 10 B Noisy Matrix Reconstruction Rank 12025 Error Adjusted for Rank 35 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 8015 4 ||E|| F ||E||F 23 10 40 2 1 5 1 000 11 22 3?3 44 55 0 0 66 ?5 x 10 11 22 3?3 44 55 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 66 ?5 x 10 Figure 3: Noisy simulation results. (A) Reconstruction error with increasing amounts of noise applied to the original matrix. (B) Traces in panel (A), each divided by its value at  = min . an overlap of 15 and randomly generate SPSD noise, scaled so that ||Al ? A?l || =  for each principal submatrix. We sweep through a range of  ? [min , max ] for a min > 0 and a max determined by the matrix with the tightest constraint on  in theorem 4. Fig. 3A shows that reconstruction error generally increases with  and the rank of the matrix to be recovered. To better visualize the ? F /||A ? A|| ? F, , where ||A ? A|| ? F, indicates the dependence on , in Fig. 3B, we plot ||A ? A|| min min reconstruction error obtained with  = min . All of the lines coincide, suggesting a linear dependence on . 7 Discussion In this work we present an algorithm for the recovery of a SPSD matrix from a deterministic sampling of its principal submatrices. We establish sufficient conditions for our algorithm to exactly recover a SPSD matrix and present a set of necessity results demonstrating that our stated conditions can be quite useful for determining when matrix recovery is possible by any method. We also show that our algorithm recovers matrices obscured by noise with increasing fidelity as the magnitude of noise goes to zero. Our algorithm incorporates no tuning parameters and can be computationally light, as the majority of computations concern potentially small principal submatrices of the original matrix. Implementations of the algorithm, which estimate each C?l in parallel, are also easy to construct. Additionally, our results can be generalized when the principal submatrices our method uses for reconstruction are themselves not fully observed. In this case, existing matrix recovery techniques can be used to estimate each complete underlying principal submatrix with some bounded error. Our algorithm can then reconstruct the full matrix from these estimated principal submatrices. An open question is the computational complexity of finding a set of principal submatrices which satisfy conditions A1 through A4. However, in many practical situations there is an obvious set of principal submatrices and ordering which satisfy these conditions. For example, in the neuroscience application described in the introduction, a set of recording probes are independently movable and each probe records from a given number of neurons in the brain. Each configuration of the probes corresponds to a block of simultaneously recorded neurons, and by moving the probes one at a time, blocks with overlapping variables can be constructed. When learning a low rank covariance structure for this data, the overlapping blocks of variables naturally define observed blocks of a low rank covariance matrix to use in algorithm 1. Acknowledgements This work was supported by an NDSEG fellowship, NIH grant T90 DA022762, NIH grant R90 DA023426-06 and by the Craig H. Nielsen Foundation. We thank Martin Azizyan, Geoff Gordon, Akshay Krishnamurthy and Aarti Singh for their helpful discussions and Rob Kass for his guidance. 8 References [1] John P Cunningham and Byron M Yu. Dimensionality reduction for large-scale neural recordings. Nature Neuroscience, 17(11):1500?1509, 2014. [2] Srini Turaga, Lars Buesing, Adam M Packer, Henry Dalgleish, Noah Pettit, Michael Hausser, and Jakob Macke. Inferring neural population dynamics from multiple partial recordings of the same neural circuit. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, pages 539?547, 2013. [3] Suraj Keshri, Eftychios Pnevmatikakis, Ari Pakman, Ben Shababo, and Liam Paninski. A shotgun sampling solution for the common input problem in neural connectivity inference. arXiv preprint arXiv:1309.3724, 2013. [4] Bernhard Sch?olkopf and Alexander J Smola. Learning with kernels: support vector machines, regularization, optimization, and beyond. MIT press, 2002. [5] C.E. Rasmussen and C.K.I. Williams. Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning (Adaptive Computation and Machine Learning). The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2006. [6] John A Lee and Michel Verleysen. Nonlinear dimensionality reduction. Springer, 2007. [7] Emmanueal J. Candes and Terence Tao. The power of convex relaxation: Near-optimal matrix completion. Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on, 56(5):2053?2080, May 2010. [8] Raghunandan H Keshavan, Andrea Montanari, and Sewoong Oh. Matrix completion from a few entries. Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on, 56(6):2980?2998, 2010. [9] Benjamin Recht. A simpler approach to matrix completion. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 12:3413?3430, 2011. [10] Raghunandan H Keshavan, Andrea Montanari, and Sewoong Oh. Matrix completion from noisy entries. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 11(2057-2078):1, 2010. [11] Emmanuel J Candes and Yaniv Plan. Matrix completion with noise. Proceedings of the IEEE, 98(6):925? 936, 2010. [12] Emmanuel J Candes and Yaniv Plan. Tight oracle inequalities for low-rank matrix recovery from a minimal number of noisy random measurements. Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on, 57(4):2342? 2359, 2011. [13] Vladimir Koltchinskii, Karim Lounici, and Alexandre B Tsybakov. Nuclear-norm penalization and optimal rates for noisy low-rank matrix completion. The Annals of Statistics, 39(5):2302?2329, 2011. [14] Sahand Negahban and Martin J Wainwright. Restricted strong convexity and weighted matrix completion: Optimal bounds with noise. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 13:1665?1697, 2012. [15] Akshay Krishnamurthy and Aarti Singh. Low-rank matrix and tensor completion via adaptive sampling. In C.J.C. Burges, L. Bottou, M. Welling, Z. Ghahramani, and K.Q. Weinberger, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 836?844. 2013. [16] Jie Chen, Nannan Cao, Kian Hsiang Low, Ruofei Ouyang, Colin Keng-Yan Tan, and Patrick Jaillet. Parallel gaussian process regression with low-rank covariance matrix approximations. arXiv preprint arXiv:1305.5826, 2013. [17] Emmanuel J Cand`es and Benjamin Recht. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Foundations of Computational Mathematics, 9(6):717?772, 2009. [18] Eyal Heiman, Gideon Schechtman, and Adi Shraibman. Deterministic algorithms for matrix completion. Random Structures & Algorithms, 2013. [19] Troy Lee and Adi Shraibman. Matrix completion from any given set of observations. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, pages 1781?1787, 2013. [20] Monique Laurent. Matrix completion problems. Encyclopedia of Optimization, pages 1967?1975, 2009. [21] Monique Laurent and Antonios Varvitsiotis. A new graph parameter related to bounded rank positive semidefinite matrix completions. Mathematical Programming, 145(1-2):291?325, 2014. [22] Monique Laurent and Antonios Varvitsiotis. Positive semidefinite matrix completion, universal rigidity and the strong arnold property. Linear Algebra and its Applications, 452:292?317, 2014. [23] Christopher Williams and Matthias Seeger. Using the nystr?om method to speed up kernel machines. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 13. Citeseer, 2001. [24] Sanjiv Kumar, Mehryar Mohri, and Ameet Talwalkar. Sampling techniques for the nystrom method. In International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, pages 304?311, 2009. [25] Peter H Sch?onemann. A generalized solution of the orthogonal procrustes problem. Psychometrika, 31(1):1?10, 1966. 9
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Active Regression by Stratification Sivan Sabato Department of Computer Science Ben Gurion University, Beer Sheva, Israel sabatos@cs.bgu.ac.il Remi Munos? INRIA Lille, France remi.munos@inria.fr Abstract We propose a new active learning algorithm for parametric linear regression with random design. We provide finite sample convergence guarantees for general distributions in the misspecified model. This is the first active learner for this setting that provably can improve over passive learning. Unlike other learning settings (such as classification), in regression the passive learning rate of O(1/) cannot in general be improved upon. Nonetheless, the so-called ?constant? in the rate of convergence, which is characterized by a distribution-dependent risk, can be improved in many cases. For a given distribution, achieving the optimal risk requires prior knowledge of the distribution. Following the stratification technique advocated in Monte-Carlo function integration, our active learner approaches the optimal risk using piecewise constant approximations. 1 Introduction In linear regression, the goal is to predict the real-valued labels of data points in Euclidean space using a linear function. The quality of the predictor is measured by the expected squared error of its predictions. In the standard regression setting with random design, the input is a labeled sample drawn i.i.d. from the joint distribution of data points and labels, and the cost of data is measured by the size of the sample. This model, which we refer to here as passive learning, is useful when both data and labels are costly to obtain. However, in domains where raw data is very cheap to obtain, a more suitable model is that of active learning (see, e.g., Cohn et al., 1994). In this model we assume that random data points are essentially free to obtain, and the learner can choose, for any observed data point, whether to ask also for its label. The cost of data here is the total number of requested labels. In this work we propose a new active learning algorithm for linear regression. We provide finite sample convergence guarantees for general distributions, under a possibly misspecified model. For parametric linear regression, the sample complexity of passive learning as a function of the excess error  is of the order O(1/). This rate cannot in general be improved by active learning, unlike in the case of classification (Balcan et al., 2009). Nonetheless, the so-called ?constant? in this rate of convergence depends on the distribution, and this is where the potential improvement by active learning lies. Finite sample convergence of parametric linear regression in the passive setting has been studied by several (see, e.g., Gy?orfi et al., 2002; Hsu et al., 2012). The standard approach is Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), where the output predictor is simply the minimizer of the mean squared error on the sample. Recently, a new algorithm for linear regression has been proposed (Hsu and Sabato, 2014). This algorithm obtains an improved convergence guarantee under less restrictive assumptions. An appealing property of this guarantee is that it provides a direct and tight relationship between the point-wise error of the optimal predictor and the convergence rate of the predictor. We exploit this to ? Current Affiliation: Google DeepMind. 1 allow our active learner to adapt to the underlying distribution. Our approach employs a stratification technique, common in Monte-Carlo function integration (see, e.g., Glasserman, 2004). For any finite partition of the data domain, an optimal oracle risk can be defined, and the convergence rate of our active learner approaches the rate defined by this risk. By constructing an infinite sequence of partitions that become increasingly refined, one can approach the globally optimal oracle risk. Active learning for parametric regression has been investigated in several works, some of them in the context of statistical experimental design. One of the earliest works is Cohn et al. (1996), which proposes an active learning algorithm for locally weighted regression, assuming a well-specified model and an unbiased learning function. Wiens (1998, 2000) calculates a minimax optimal design for regression given the marginal data distribution, assuming that the model is approximately well-specified. Kanamori (2002) and Kanamori and Shimodaira (2003) propose an active learning algorithm that first calculates a maximum likelihood estimator and then uses this estimator to come up with an optimal design. Asymptotic convergence rates are provided under asymptotic normality assumptions. Sugiyama (2006) assumes an approximately well-specified model and i.i.d. label noise, and selects a design from a finite set of possibilities. The approach is adapted to pool-based active learning by Sugiyama and Nakajima (2009). Burbidge et al. (2007) propose an adaptation of Query By Committee. Cai et al. (2013) propose guessing the potential of an example to change the current model. Ganti and Gray (2012) propose a consistent pool-based active learner for the squared loss. A different line of research, which we do not discuss here, focuses on active learning for non-parameteric regression, e.g. Efromovich (2007). Outline In Section 2 the formal setting and preliminaries are introduced. In Section 3 the notion of an oracle risk for a given distribution is presented. The stratification technique is detailed in Section 4. The new active learner algorithm and its analysis are provided in Section 5, with the main result stated in Theorem 5.1. In Section 6 we show via a simple example that in some cases the active learner approaches the maximal possible improvement over passive learning. 2 Setting and Preliminaries We assume a data space in Rd and labels in R. For a distribution P over Rd ? R, denote by suppX (P ) the support of the marginal of P over Rd . Denote the strictly positive reals by R?+ . We assume that labeled examples are distributed according to a distribution D. A random labeled example is (X, Y ) ? D, where X ? Rd is the example and Y ? R is the label. Throughout this work, whenever P[?] or E[?] appear without a subscript, they are taken with respect to D. DX is the marginal distribution of X in pairs draws from D. The conditional distribution of Y when the example is X = x is denoted DY |x . The function x 7? DY |x is denoted DY |X . A predictor is a function from Rd to R that predicts a label for every possible example. Linear predictors are functions of the form x 7? x> w for some w ? Rd . The squared loss of w ? Rd for an example x ? Rd with a true label y ? R is `((x, y), w) = (x> w ? y)2 . The expected squared loss of w with respect to D is L(w, D) = E(X,Y )?D [(X> w ? Y )2 ]. The goal of the learner is to find a w such that L(w) is small. The optimal loss achievable by a linear predictor is L? (D) = minw?Rd L(w, D). We denote by w? (D) a minimizer of L(w, D) such that L? (D) = L(w? (D), D). In all these notations the parameter D is dropped when clear from context. In the passive learning setting, the learner draws random i.i.d. pairs (X, Y ) ? D. The sample complexity of the learner is the number of drawn pairs. In the active learning setting, the learner draws i.i.d. examples X ? DX . For any drawn example, the learner may draw a label according to the distribution DY |X . The label complexity of the learner is the number of drawn labels. In this setting it is easy to approximate various properties of DX to any accuracy, with zero label cost. Thus we assume for simplicity direct access to some properties of DX , such as the covariance matrix of DX , denoted ?D = EX?DX [XX> ], and expectations of some other functions of X.?We assume w.l.o.g. that ?D is not singular. For a matrix A ? Rd?d , and x ? Rd , denote kxkA = x> Ax. Let 2 RD = maxx?suppX (D) kxk2??1 . This is the condition number of the marginal distribution DX . We D have ?1 > E[kXk2??1 ] = E[tr(X> ??1 D X)] = tr(?D E[XX ]) = d. D 2 (1) Hsu and Sabato (2014) provide a passive learning algorithm for least squares linear regression with a minimax optimal sample complexity (up to logarithmic factors). The algorithm is based on splitting the labeled sample into several subsamples, performing OLS on each of the subsamples, and then choosing one of the resulting predictors via a generalized median procedure. We give here a useful version of the result.1 Theorem 2.1 (Hsu and Sabato, 2014). There are universal constants C, c, c0 , c00 > 0 such that the following holds. Let D be a distribution over Rd ?R. There exists an efficient algorithm that accepts as input a confidence ? ? (0, 1) and a labeled sample of size n drawn i.i.d. from D, and returns 2 ? ? Rd , such that if n ? cRD w log(c0 n) log(c00 /?), with probability 1 ? ?, ? D) ? L? (D) = kw? (D) ? wk ? 2?D ? L(w, C log(1/?) ? ED [kXk2??1 (Y ? X> w? (D))2 ]. D n (2) This result is particularly useful in the context of active learning, since it provides an explicit dependence on the point-wise errors of the labels, including in heteroscedastic settings, where this error is not uniform. As we see below, in such cases active learning can potentially gain over passive ? ? REG(S, ?). The allearning. We denote an execution of the algorithm on a labeled sample S by w gorithm is used a black box, thus any other algorithm with similar guarantees could be used instead. For instance, similar guarantees might hold for OLS for a more restricted class of distributions. Throughout the analysis we omit for readability details of integer rounding, whenever the effects are negligible. We use the notation O(exp), where exp is a mathematical expression, as a short hand for c? ? exp + C? for some universal constants c?, C? ? 0, whose values can vary between statements. 3 An Oracle Bound for Active Regression The bound in Theorem 2.1 crucially depends on the input distribution D. In an active learning framework, rejection sampling (Von Neumann, 1951) can be used to simulate random draws of labeled examples according to a different distribution, without additional label costs. By selecting a suitable distribution, it might be possible to improve over Eq. (2). Rejection sampling for regression has been explored in Kanamori (2002); Kanamori and Shimodaira (2003); Sugiyama (2006) and others, mostly in an asymptotic regime. Here we use the explicit bound in Eq. (2) to obtain new finite sample guarantees that hold for general distributions. Let ? : Rd ? R?+ be a strictly positive weight function such that E[?(X)] = 1. We define the distribution P? over Rd ? R as follows: For x ? Rd , y ? R, let ?? (x, y) = {(? x, y?) ? Rd ? R | x = y ? ? x ? ,y = ? }, and define P? by ?(? x) ?(? x) Z d ? ? Y? ). ?(X, Y ) ? R ? R, P? (X, Y ) = ?(X)dD( X, ? Y? )??? (X,Y ) (X, A labeled i.i.d. sample drawn according to P? can be simulated using rejection sampling without additional label costs (see Alg. 2 in Appendix B). We denote drawing m random labeled examples according to P by S ? SAMPLE(P, m). For the squared loss on P? we have Z L(w, P? ) = `((X, Y ), w) dP? (X, Y ) (X,Y )?Rd Z Z (?) ? dD(X, ? Y? ) = `((X, Y ), w) ?(X) ? Y? )??? (X,Y ) (X, (X,Y )?Rd Z = ? Y? )?Rd (X, `(( q ? X ? ?(X) ,q Y? ? dD(X, ? Y? ) ), w) ?(X) ? ?(X) Z = `((X, Y ), w) dD(X, Y ) = L(w, D). (X,Y )?Rd The equality (?) can be rigorously derived from the definition of Lebesgue integration. It follows that also L? (D) = L? (P? ) and that w? (D) = w? (P? ). We thus denote these by L? and w? . In 1 This is a slight variation of the original result of Hsu and Sabato (2014), see Appendix A. 3 R R a similar manner, we have ?P? = XX> dP? (X, Y ) = XX> dD(X, Y ) = ?D . From now on we denote this matrix simply ?. We denote k ? k? by k ? k, and k ? k??1 by k ? k? . The condition kxk2 2 number of P? is RP = maxx?suppX (D) ?(x)? . ? If the regression algorithm is applied to n labeled examples drawn from the simulated P? , then by 2 Eq. (2) and the equalities above, with probability 1 ? ?, if n ? cRP log(c0 n) log(c00 /?)), ? C ? log(1/?) ? EP? [kXk2? (X> w? ? Y )2 ] n C ? log(1/?) = ? ED [kXk2? (X> w? ? Y )2 /?(X)]. n ? ? L? ? L(w) Denote ? 2 (x) := kxk2? ? ED [(X> w? ? Y )2 | X = x]. Further denote ?(?) := ED [? 2 (X)/?(X)], 2 which we term the risk of ?. Then, if n ? cRP log(c0 n) log(c00 /?), with probability 1 ? ?, ? ? ? L? ? L(w) C ? ?(?) log(1/?) . n (3) A passive learner essentially uses the default ?, which is constantly 1, for a risk of ?(1) = E[? 2 (X)]. But the ? that minimizes the bound is the solution to the following minimization problem: Minimize? subject to E[? 2 (X)/?(X)] E[?(X)] = 1, c log(c0 n) log(c00 /?) kxk2? , ?(x) ? n (4) ?x ? suppX (D). 2 The second constraint is due to the requirement n ? cRP log(c0 n) log(c00 /?). The following lemma ? bounds the risk of the optimal ?. Its proof is provided in Appendix C. Lemma 3.1. Let ?? be the solution to the minimization problem in Eq. (4). Then for n ? O(d log(d) log(1/?)), E2 [?(X)] ? ?(?? ) ? E2 [?(X)](1 + O(d log(n) log(1/?)/n)). The ratio between the risk of ?? and the risk of the default ? thus approaches E[? 2 (X)]/E2 [?(X)], and this is also the optimal factor of label complexity reduction. The ratio is 1 for highly symmetric distributions, where the support of DX is on a sphere and all the noise variances are identical. In these cases, active learning is not helpful, even asymptotically. However, in the general case, this ratio is unbounded, and so is the potential for improvement from using active learning. The crucial challenge is that without access to the conditional distribution DY |X , Eq. (4) cannot be solved directly. We consider the oracle risk ?? = E2 [?(X)], which can be approached if an oracle divulges the optimal ? and n ? ?. The goal of the active learner is to approach the oracle guarantee without prior knowledge of DY |X . 4 Approaching the Oracle Bound with Strata To approximate the oracle guarantee, we borrow the stratification approach used in Monte-Carlo function integration (e.g., Glasserman, 2004). Partition suppX (D) into K disjoint subsets A = {A1 , . . . , AK }, and consider for ? only functions that are constant on each Ai and such that E[?(X)] = 1. Each of the functions in this class can be described by a vector a = (a1 , . . . , aK ) ? (R?+ )K . The value of the function on x ? Ai is P ai pj aj , where pj := P[X ? Aj ]. Let ?a denote j?[K] a function defined by a, leaving the dependence on the partition A implicit. To calculate the risk of ?a , denote ?i := E[kXk2? (X> w? ? Y )2 | X ? Ai ]. From the definition of ?(?), X X pi ?(?a ) = pj aj ?i . (5) ai j?[K] It is easy to verify that a? such that a?i = i?[K] ? ?i minimizes ?(?a ), and X ? ??A := inf ?(?a ) = ?(?a? ) = ( pi ?i )2 . a?RK + i?[K] 4 (6) ??A is the P oracle risk for the fixed partition A. In comparison, the standard passive learner has risk ?(?1 ) = i?[K] pi ?i . Thus, the ratio between the optimal risk and the default risk can be as large as 1/ mini pi . Note that here, as in the definition of ?? above, ??A might not be achievable for samples up to a certain size, because of the additional requirement that ? not be too small (see Eq. (4)). Nonetheless, this optimistic value is useful as a comparison. Consider an infinite sequence of partitions: for j ? N, Aj = {Aj1 , . . . , AjKj }, with Kj ? ?. Similarly to Carpentier and Munos (2012), under mild regularity assumptions, if the partitions have diameters and probabilities that approach zero, then ??Aj ? ?(?? ), achieving the optimal upper bound for Eq. (3). For a fixed partition A, the challenge is then to approach ??A without prior knowledge of the true ?i ?s, using relatively few extra labeled examples. In the next section we describe our active learning algorithm that does just that. 5 Active Learning for Regression To approach the optimal risk ??A , we need a good estimate of ?i for i ? [K]. Note that ?i depends on the optimal predictor w? , therefore its value depends on the entire distribution. We assume that the error of the label relative to the optimal predictor is bounded as follows: There exists a b ? 0 such that (x> w? ? y)2 ? b2 kxk2? for all (x, y) in the support of D. This boundedness assumption can be replaced by an assumption on sub-Gaussian tails with similar results. Our assumption implies also L? = E[(x> w? ? y)2 ] ? b2 E[kXk2? ] = b2 d, where the last equality follows from Eq. (1). Algorithm 1 Active Regression input Confidence ? ? (0, 1), label budget m, partition A. ? ? Rd output w 1: m1 ? m4/5 /2, m2 ? m4/5 /2, m3 ? m ? (m1 + m2 ). 2: ?1 ? ?/4, ?2 ? ?/4, ?3 ? ?/2. 3: S1 ? SAMPLE(P?[?] , m1 ) ? ? REG 4: v q (S1 , ?1 ) p Cd2 b2 log(1/?1 ) 5: ? ? ; ? ? (b + 2?)2 K log(2K/?2 )/m2 ; t ? m2 /K. m1 6: for i = 1 to K do 7: Ti ? SAMPLE (Qi , t).   P 1 ? ? y| + ?)2 + ? . 8: ? ?i ? ?i ? t (x,y)?Ti (|x> v ? 9: a ?i ? ? ?i . 10: end for 0 c log(c m3 ) log(c00 /?3 ) 11: ? ? m3 ? such that for x ? Ai , ?(x) ? 12: Set ? := kxk2 ? ? + (1 ? d?) P a?i . ? j pj a ?j 13: S3 ? SAMPLE(P??, m3 ). ? ? REG(S3 , ?3 ). 14: w Our active regression algorithm, listed in Alg. 1, operates in three stages. In the first stage, the goal is ? , so as to later estimate ?i . To find this optimizer, the algorithm draws to find a crude loss optimizer v a labeled sample of size m1 from the distribution P?[?] , where ?[?](x) := d1 x> ??1 x = d1 kxk2? . 2 Note that ?(?[?]) = d ? E[(Xw? ? Y )2 ] = dL? . In addition, RP = d. Consequently, by Eq. (3), ?[?] applying REG to m1 ? O(d log(d) log(1/?1 )) random draws from P?[?] gets, with probability 1??1 CdL? log(1/?1 ) Cd2 b2 log(1/?1 ) ? . (7) m1 m1 In Needell et al. (2013) a similar distribution is used to speed up gradient descent for convex losses. Here, we make use of ?[?] as a stepping stone in order to approach the optimal ? at a rate that does not depend on the condition number of D. Denote by E the event that Eq. (7) holds. L(? v) ? L? = k? v ? w? k2 ? In the second stage, estimates for ?i , denoted ? ?i , are calculated from labeled samples that are drawn from another set of probability distributions, Qi for i ? [K]. These distributions are defined as follows. Denote ?i = E[kXk4? | X ? Ai ]. For x ? Rd , y ? R, let ?i (x, y) = {(? x, y?) ? Ai ? 5 R ? 4 ? ? R | x = k?xx?k? , y = k?xy?k? }, and define Qi by dQi (X, Y ) = ?1i (X, ? Y? )??i (X,Y ) kXk? dD(X, Y ). Clearly, for all x ? suppX (Qi ), kxk? = 1. Drawing labeled examples from Qi can be done using rejection sampling, similarly to P? . The use of the Qi distributions in the second stage again helps avoid a dependence on the condition number of D in the convergence rates. In the last stage, a weight function ?? is determined based on the estimated ? ?i . A labeled sample is drawn from P??, and the algorithm returns the predictor resulting from running REG on this sample. The following theorem gives our main result, a finite sample convergence rate guarantee. Theorem 5.1. Let b ? 0 such that (x> w? ? y)2 ? b2 kxk2? for all (x, y) in the support of D. Let ?D = E[kXk4? ]. If Alg. 1 is executed with ? and m such that m ? O(d log(d) log(1/?))5/4 , then it draws m labels, and with probability 1 ? ?, C??A log(3/?) ? ? L? ? L(w) + m ! 1/4 1/2 d1/2 ?D log5/4 (1/?) 1/2 ? 3/4 d?D K 1/4 log1/4 (K/?) log(1/?) ? 1/2 log(1/?) ? ? + b ?A + b?A . O m6/5 A m6/5 m6/5 The theorem shows that the learning rate of the active learner approaches the oracle rate for the given partition. With an infinite sequence of partitions with K an increasing function of m, the optimal oracle risk can also be approached. The rate of convergence to the oracle rate does not depend on the condition number of D, unlike the passive learning rate. In addition, m = O(d log(d) log(1/?))5/4 suffices to approach the optimal rate, whereas m = ?(d) is obviously necessary for any learner. It is interesting that also in active learning for classification, it has been observed that active learning in a non-realizable setting requires a super-linear dependence on d (See, e.g., Dasgupta et al., 2008). Whether this dependence is unavoidable for active regression is an open question. Theorem 5.1 is ? be proved via a series of lemmas. First, we show that if ? ?i is a good approximation of ?i then ?A (?) can be bounded as a function of the oracle risk for A. Lemma 5.2. Suppose m3 ? O(d log(d) log(1/?3 )), and let ?? as in Alg. 1. If, for some ?, ? ? 0, ? ?i ? ??i ? ?i + ?i ?i + ?i , (8) then X X ? ? (1 + O(d log(m3 ) log(1/?3 )/m3 ))(?? + ( ?A (?) pi ?i )1/2 ??A 3/4 + ( pi ?i )1/2 ??A 1/2 ). A i i 0 00 3 ) log(c /?) ? . Therefore Proof. We have ?x ? Ai , ?(x) ? (1 ? d?) P a?pij a?j , where ? = c log(c mm 3 j X X 1 ? ? E[? 2 (X)/?(X)] ? ?(?) ? pj a ?j pi ? E[? 2 (X)/a?i | X ? Ai ] 1 ? d? j i = X 1 X d? pj a ?j pi ?i /? ai = (1 + )?(?a? ). 1 ? d? j 1 ? d? i For m3 ? O(d log(d) log(1/?3 )), d? ? 21 ,2 therefore d? 1?d? ? 2d?. It follows ? ? (1 + O(d log(m3 ) log(1/?3 )/m3 ))?(?a? ). ?(?) (9) By Eq. (8), ?A (?a? ) = X ? X pj p ? ?j X j p pi ?i / ? ?i i X ? p ? ? 1/4 pj ( ?j + ?j ?j + ?j ) pi ?i j i X ? X ? X ? X p X ? 1/4 pj ?j ?j )( pi ?i ) + ( pj ?j )( pi ?i ). =( pi ?i )2 + ( i = ??A + ( j X pj ? 1/4 ?j ?j )??A 1/2 +( j 2 i j X p pj ?j )??A 1/2 . j Using the fact that m ? O(d log(d) log(1/?3 )) implies m ? O(d log(m) log(1/?3 )). 6 i P ? P ? 1/4 The last equality is since ??A = ( i pi ?i )2 . By Cauchy-Schwartz, ( j pj ?j ?j ) ? p P P P ( i pi ?i )1/2 ??A 3/4 . By Jensen?s inequality, j pj ?j ? ( j pj ?j )1/2 . Combined with Eq. (6) and Eq. (9), the lemma directly follows. We now show that Eq. (8) holds and provide explicit values for ? and ?. Define ?i X ? ? Y | + ?)2 ], and ??i := ? ? y| + ?)2 . ?i := ?i ? EQi [(|X> w (|x> w t (x,y)?Ti Note that ? ?i = ??i + ?i ?. We will relate ??i to ?i , and then ?i to ?i , to conclude a bound of the form in Eq. (8) for ? ?i . First, note that if m1 ? O(d log(d) log(1/?1 ) and E holds, then for any x ? ?i?[K] suppX (Qi ), s Cd2 b2 log(1/?1 ) ? ? x> w? | ? kxk? k? |x> v v ? w? k ? ? ?. (10) m1 The second inequality stems from kxk? = 1 for x ? ?i?[K] suppX (Qi ), and Eq. (7). This is useful in the following lemma, which relates ??i with ?i . Lemma 5.3. Suppose that m1 ? O(d log(d) log(1/?1 )) and E holds.pThen with probability 1 ? ?2 over the draw of T1 , . . . , TK , for all i ? [K], |? ?i ? ?i | ? ?i (b + 2?)2 K log(2K/?2 )/m2 ? ?i ?. ? , ??i /?i is the empirical average of i.i.d. samples of the random variable Z = Proof. For a fixed v ? ? Y | + ?)2 , where (X, Y ) is drawn according to Qi . We now give an upper bound for Z (|X> v ? Y? ) in the support of D such that X = X/k ? Xk ? ? and Y = Y? /kXk ? ?. with probability 1. Let (X, ? > w? ? Y? |/kXk ? ? ? b. If E holds and m1 ? O(d log(d) log(1/?1 )), Then |X> w? ? Y | = |X ? ? X> w? | + |X> w? ? Y | + ?)2 ? (b + 2?)2 , Z ? (|X> v where the last inequality follows from Eq. p (10). By Hoeffding?s inequality, for every i, with proba2 bility 1 ? ?2 , |? ?i ? ?i | ? ?i (b + 2?) log(2/?2 )/t. The statement of the lemma follows from a union bound over i ? [K] and t = m2 /K. The following lemma, proved in Appendix D, provides the desired relationship between ?i and ?i . ? Lemma 5.4. If m1 ? O(d log(d) log(1/?1 )) and E holds, then ?i ? ?i ? ?i +4? ?i ?i +4?2 ?i . We are now ready to prove Theorem 5.1. Proof of Theorem 5.1. From the condition on m and the definition of m1 , m3 in Alg. 1 we have m1 ? O(d log(d/?1 )) and m3 ? O(d log(d/?3 )). Therefore the inequalities in Lemma 5.4, Lemma ? hold simultaneously with probability 1 ? 5.3 and Eq. (3) (with n, ?, ? substituted with m3 , ?3 , ?) kxk? 2 ?1 ? ?2 ? ?3 . For Eq. (3), note that ?(x) ? ?, thus m3 ? cRP log(c0 n) log(c00 /?3 ) as required. ? ? ? Combining Lemma 5.4 and Lemma 5.3, and noting that ? ?i = ??i + ?i ?, we conclude that p ?i ? ? ?i ? ?i + 4? ?i ?i + ?i (4?2 + 2?). By Lemma 5.2, it follows that X ? X p 1/2 ? 3/4 p ? ? ?? + 2 ?( ? log(m3 ) ) ?A (?) pi ?i ) ?A + 4?2 + 2? ? ( pi ?i )1/2 ??A 1/2 + O( A m3 i?[K] i?[K] p 1/4 1/2 ? ? ??A + 2?1/2 ?D ??A 3/4 + 4?2 + 2? ? ?D ??A 1/2 + O(log(m 3 )/m3 ). P ? to absorb parameters that already The last inequality follows since pi ?i = ?D . We use O i?[K] appear in the other terms of the bound. Combining this with Eq. (3), C??A log(1/?3 ) + m3  p C log(1/?3 )  1/2 1/4 ? 3/4 1/2 ? log(m3 ) ). 2? ?D ?A + (2? + 2?) ? ?D ??A 1/2 + O( m3 m23 ? ? L? ? L(w) 7 q p 2 2 log(1/? ) 1 . For m1 ? Cd log(1/?1 ), We have ? = (b+2?)2 K log(2K/?2 )/m2 , and ? = Cd b m 1 p ? ? 2 2 ? ? b d, thus ? ? b (2 d + 1) K log(2K/?2 )/m2 . Substituting for ? and ?, we have  1/4 C??A log(1/?3 ) C log(1/?3 ) 16Cd2 b2 log(1/?1 ) 1/4 ? ? L? ? L(w) ?D ??A 3/4 + m3 m3 m1  1/2 C log(1/?3 ) 4Cd2 b2 log(1/?1 ) + m3 m1  1/4 ! ? ? K log(2K/?2 ) 1/2 ? log(m3 ) ). + 2b(2 d + 1) ? ?D ??A 1/2 + O( m2 m23 To get the theorem, set m3 = m ? m4/5 , m2 = m1 = m4/5 /2, ?1 = ?2 = ?/4, and ?3 = ?/2. 6 Improvement over Passive Learning Theorem 5.1 shows that our active learner approaches the oracle rate, which can be strictly faster than the rate implied by Theorem 2.1 for passive learning. To complete the picture, observe that this better rate cannot be achieved by any passive learner. This can be seen by the following 1-dimensional ? example. Let ? > 0, ? > ?12 , p = 2?1 2 , and ? ? R such that |?| ? ? . Let D? over R ? R such 2 that with probability p, X = ? and Y = ?? + , where  ? N (0, ? ), and with probability 1 ? p, q X = ? := 1?p?2 1?p and Y = 0. Then E[X 2 ] = 1 and w? = p?2 ?. Consider a partition of R such that ? ? A1 and ? ? A2 . Then p1 = p, ?1 = E [?2 ( + ?? ? ?w? )2 ] = ?2 (? 2 + ?2 ? 2 (1 ? p?2 )) ? 1?p?2 2 2 4 2 p2 ? 2 ? 2 3 2 2 4 2 2 ? ? . In addition, p2 = 1 ? p and ?2 = ? w? = ( 1?p ) p ? ? ? 4(1?p)2 . The oracle risk is r r p?? 2 3 3 1 2 ? ? 2 ? 2 2 2 ?A = (p1 ?1 + p2 ?2 ) ? (p ?? + (1 ? p) ) =p ? ? ( + ) ? 2p? 2 . 2 2(1 ? p) 2 2 Therefore, for the active learner, with probability 1 ? ?, 2Cp? 2 log(1/?) 1 + o( ). (11) m m In contrast, consider any passive learner that receives m labeled examples and outputs a predictor w ? w. ? Consider the estimator for ? defined by ?? = p? ? estimates the mean of a Gaussian distribution 2. ? L(w) ? ? L? ? 2 with variance ? 2 /?2 . The minimax optimal rate for such an estimator is ??2 n , where n is the number of examples with X = ?.3 With probability at least 1/2, n ? 2mp. Therefore, EDm [(? ? ? ?)2 ] ? 2 2 2 ? ?2 m ? ? L? ] = EDm [(w ? ? w)2 ] = p2 ?4 ? E[(? ? ? ?)2 ] ? p?4m? = 4m . 4?2 mp . It follows that ED [L(w) Comparing this to Eq. (11), one can see that the ratio between the rate of the best passive learner and the rate of the active learner approaches O(1/p) for large m. 7 Discussion Many questions remain open for active regression. For instance, it is of particular interest whether the convergence rates provided here are the best possible for this model. Second, we consider here only the plain vanilla finite-dimensional regression, however we believe that the approach can be extended to ridge regression in a general Hilbert space. Lastly, the algorithm uses static allocation of samples to stages and to partitions. 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A Drifting-Games Analysis for Online Learning and Applications to Boosting Haipeng Luo Department of Computer Science Princeton University Princeton, NJ 08540 haipengl@cs.princeton.edu Robert E. Schapire? Department of Computer Science Princeton University Princeton, NJ 08540 schapire@cs.princeton.edu Abstract We provide a general mechanism to design online learning algorithms based on a minimax analysis within a drifting-games framework. Different online learning settings (Hedge, multi-armed bandit problems and online convex optimization) are studied by converting into various kinds of drifting games. The original minimax analysis for drifting games is then used and generalized by applying a series of relaxations, starting from choosing a convex surrogate of the 0-1 loss function. With different choices of surrogates, we not only recover existing algorithms, but also propose new algorithms that are totally parameter-free and enjoy other useful properties. Moreover, our drifting-games framework naturally allows us to study high probability bounds without resorting to any concentration results, and also a generalized notion of regret that measures how good the algorithm is compared to all but the top small fraction of candidates. Finally, we translate our new Hedge algorithm into a new adaptive boosting algorithm that is computationally faster as shown in experiments, since it ignores a large number of examples on each round. 1 Introduction In this paper, we study online learning problems within a drifting-games framework, with the aim of developing a general methodology for designing learning algorithms based on a minimax analysis. To solve an online learning problem, it is natural to consider game-theoretically optimal algorithms which find the best solution even in worst-case scenarios. This is possible for some special cases ([7, 1, 3, 21]) but difficult in general. On the other hand, many other efficient algorithms with optimal regret rate (but not exactly minimax optimal) have been proposed for different learning settings (such as the exponential weights algorithm [14, 15], and follow the perturbed leader [18]). However, it is not always clear how to come up with these algorithms. Recent work by Rakhlin et al. [26] built a bridge between these two classes of methods by showing that many existing algorithms can indeed be derived from a minimax analysis followed by a series of relaxations. In this paper, we provide a parallel way to design learning algorithms by first converting online learning problems into variants of drifting games, and then applying a minimax analysis and relaxations. Drifting games [28] (reviewed in Section 2) generalize Freund?s ?majority-vote game? [13] and subsume some well-studied boosting and online learning settings. A nearly minimax optimal algorithm is proposed in [28]. It turns out the connections between drifting games and online learning go far beyond what has been discussed previously. To show that, we consider variants of drifting games that capture different popular online learning problems. We then generalize the minimax analysis in [28] based on one key idea: relax a 0-1 loss function by a convex surrogate. Although ? R. Schapire is currently at Microsoft Research in New York City. 1 this idea has been applied widely elsewhere in machine learning, we use it here in a new way to obtain a very general methodology for designing and analyzing online learning algorithms. Using this general idea, we not only recover existing algorithms, but also design new ones with special useful properties. A somewhat surprising result is that our new algorithms are totally parameterfree, which is usually not the case for algorithms derived from a minimax analysis. Moreover, a generalized notion of regret (?-regret, defined in Section 3) that measures how good the algorithm is compared to all but the top ? fraction of candidates arises naturally in our drifting-games framework. Below we summarize our results for a range of learning settings. Hedge Settings: (Section 3) The Hedge problem [14] investigates how to cleverly bet across a set of actions. We show an algorithmic equivalence between this problem and a simple drifting game (DGv1). We then show how to relax the original minimax analysis step by step to reach a general recipe for designing Hedge algorithms (Algorithm 3). Three examples of appropriate convex surrogates of the 0-1 loss function are then discussed, leading to the well-known exponential weights algorithm and two other new ones, one of which (NormalHedge.DT in Section 3.3) bears some similarities with the NormalHedge algorithm [10] and enjoys a similar ?-regret bound simultaneously for all ? and horizons. However, our regret bounds do not depend on the number of actions, and thus can be applied even when there are infinitely many actions. Our analysis is also arguably simpler and more intuitive than the one in [10] and easy to be generalized to more general settings. Moreover, our algorithm is more computationally efficient since it does not require a numerical searching step as in NormalHedge. Finally, we also derive high probability bounds for the randomized Hedge setting as a simple side product of our framework without using any concentration results. Multi-armed Bandit Problems: (Section 4) The multi-armed bandit problem [6] is a classic example for learning with incomplete information where the learner can only obtain feedback for the actions taken. To capture this problem, we study a quite different drifting game (DGv2) where randomness and variance constraints are taken into account. Again the minimax analysis is generalized and the EXP3 algorithm [6] is recovered. Our results could be seen as a preliminary step to answer the open question [2] on exact minimax optimal algorithms for the multi-armed bandit problem. Online Convex Optimization: (Section 4) Based the theory of convex optimization, online convex optimization [31] has been the foundation of modern online learning theory. The corresponding drifting game formulation is a continuous space variant (DGv3). Fortunately, it turns out that all results from the Hedge setting are ready to be used here, recovering the continuous EXP algorithm [12, 17, 24] and also generalizing our new algorithms to this general setting. Besides the usual regret bounds, we also generalize the ?-regret, which, as far as we know, is the first time it has been explicitly studied. Again, we emphasize that our new algorithms are adaptive in ? and the horizon. Boosting: (Section 4) Realizing that every Hedge algorithm can be converted into a boosting algorithm ([29]), we propose a new boosting algorithm (NH-Boost.DT) by converting NormalHedge.DT. The adaptivity of NormalHedge.DT is then translated into training error and margin distribution bounds that previous analysis in [29] using nonadaptive algorithms does not show. Moreover, our new boosting algorithm ignores a great many examples on each round, which is an appealing property useful to speeding up the weak learning algorithm. This is confirmed by our experiments. Related work: Our analysis makes use of potential functions. Similar concepts have widely appeared in the literature [8, 5], but unlike our work, they are not related to any minimax analysis and might be hard to interpret. The existence of parameter free Hedge algorithms for unknown number of actions was shown in [11], but no concrete algorithms were given there. Boosting algorithms that ignore some examples on each round were studied in [16], where a heuristic was used to ignore examples with small weights and no theoretical guarantee is provided. 2 Reviewing Drifting Games We consider a simplified version of drifting games similar to the one described in [29, chap. 13] (also called chip games). This game proceeds through T rounds, and is played between a player and an adversary who controls N chips on the real line. The positions of these chips at the end of round t are denoted by st 2 RN , with each coordinate st,i corresponding to the position of chip i. Initially, all chips are at position 0 so that s0 = 0. On every round t = 1, . . . , T : the player first chooses a distribution pt over the chips, then the adversary decides the movements of the chips zt so that the 2 new positions are updated as st = st 1 + zt . Here, each zt,i has to be picked from a prespecified set B ? R, and more importantly, satisfy the constraint pt ? zt 0 for some fixed constant . At the end of the game, each chip is associated with a nonnegative loss defined by L(sT,i ) for some nonincreasing function L mapping from the final position of the chip to R+ . The goal of the player PN is to minimize the chips? average loss N1 i=1 L(sT,i ) after T rounds. So intuitively, the player aims to ?push? the chips to the right by assigning appropriate weights on them so that the adversary has to move them to the right by in a weighted average sense on each round. This game captures many learning problems. For instance, binary classification via boosting can be translated into a drifting game by treating each training example as a chip (see [28] for details). We regard a player?s strategy D as a function mapping from the history of the adversary?s decisions to a distribution that the player is going to play with, that is, pt = D(z1:t 1 ) where z1:t 1 stands for z1 , . . . , zt 1 . The player?s worst case loss using this algorithm is then denoted by LT (D). The minimax optimal loss of the game is computed by the following expression: PN PT minD LT (D) = minp1 2 N maxz1 2Zp1 ? ? ? minpT 2 N maxzT 2ZpT N1 i=1 L( t=1 zt,i ), where N \ {z : p ? z } is assumed to be compact. N is the N dimensional simplex and Zp = B A strategy D? that realizes the minimum in minD LT (D) is called a minimax optimal strategy. A nearly optimal strategy and its analysis is originally given in [28], and a derivation by directly tackling the above minimax expression can be found in [29, chap. 13]. Specifically, a sequence of potential functions of a chip?s position is defined recursively as follows: T (s) = L(s), t 1 (s) = min max( w2R+ z2B t (s + z) + w(z (1) )). Let wt,i be the weight that realizes the minimum in the definition of t 1 (st 1,i ), that is, wt,i 2 arg minw maxz ( t (st 1,i + z) + w(z )). Then the player?s strategy is to set pt,i / wt,i . The key property of this strategy is that it assures that the sum of the potentials over all the chips never increases, connecting the player?s final loss with the potential at time 0 as follows: N N 1 X 1 X L(sT,i ) ? N i=1 N i=1 T (sT,i ) ? N 1 X N i=1 T 1 (sT 1,i ) ? ??? ? N 1 X N i=1 0 (s0,i ) = It has been shown in [28] that this upper bound on the loss is optimal in a very strong sense. 0 (0). (2) Moreover, in some cases the potential functions have nice closed forms and thus the algorithm can be efficiently implemented. For example, in the boosting setting, B is simply { 1, +1}, and one can verify t (s) = 1+2 t+1 (s+1)+ 1 2 t+1 (s 1) and wt,i = 12 ( t (st 1,i 1) t (st 1,i + 1)). With the loss function L(s) being 1{s ? 0}, these can be further simplified and eventually give exactly the boost-by-majority algorithm [13]. 3 Online Learning as a Drifting Game The connection between drifting games and some specific settings of online learning has been noticed before ([28, 23]). We aim to find deeper connections or even an equivalence between variants of drifting games and more general settings of online learning, and provide insights on designing learning algorithms through a minimax analysis. We start with a simple yet classic Hedge setting. 3.1 Algorithmic Equivalence In the Hedge setting [14], a player tries to earn as much as possible (or lose as little as possible) by cleverly spreading a fixed amount of money to bet on a set of actions on each day. Formally, the game proceeds for T rounds, and on each round t = 1, . . . , T : the player chooses a distribution pt over N actions, then the adversary decides the actions? losses `t (i.e. action i incurs loss `t,i 2 [0, 1]) which are revealed to the player. The player suffers a weighted average loss pt ? `t at the end of this round. The goal of the player is to minimize his ?regret?, which is usually defined as the difference between his total loss and the loss of the best action. Here, we consider an even more general notion of regret studied in [20, 19, 10, 11], which we call ?-regret. Suppose the actions are ordered according to PT their total losses after T rounds (i.e. t=1 `t,i ) from smallest to largest, and let i? be the index 3 Input: A Hedge Algorithm H for t = 1 to T do Query H: pt = H(`1:t 1 ). Set: DR (z1:t 1 ) = pt . Receive movements zt from the adversary. Set: `t,i = zt,i minj zt,j , 8i. Input: A DGv1 Algorithm DR for t = 1 to T do Query DR : pt = DR (z1:t 1 ). Set: H(`1:t 1 ) = pt . Receive losses `t from the adversary. Set: zt,i = `t,i pt ? `t , 8i. Algorithm 1: Conversion of a Hedge Algo- Algorithm 2: Conversion of a DGv1 Algorithm H to a DGv1 Algorithm DR rithm DR to a Hedge Algorithm H of the action that is the dN ?e-th element in the sorted list (0 < ? ? 1). Now, ?-regret is defined PT PT as R?T (p1:T , `1:T ) = t=1 pt ? `t t=1 `t,i? . In other words, ?-regret measures the difference between the player?s loss and the loss of the dN ?e-th best action (recovering the usual regret with ? ? 1/N ), and sublinear ?-regret implies that the player?s loss is almost as good as all but the top ? fraction of actions. Similarly, R?T (H) denotes the worst case ?-regret for a specific algorithm H. For convenience, when ? ? 0 or ? > 1, we define ?-regret to be 1 or 1 respectively. Next we discuss how Hedge is highly related to drifting games. Consider a variant of drifting games where B = [ 1, 1], = 0 and L(s) = 1{s ? R} for some constant R. Additionally, we impose an extra restriction on the adversary: |zt,i zt,j | ? 1 for all i and j. In other words, the difference between any two chips? movements is at most 1. We denote this specific variant of drifting games by DGv1 (summarized in Appendix A) and a corresponding algorithm by DR to emphasize the dependence on R. The reductions in Algorithm 1 and 2 and Theorem 1 show that DGv1 and the Hedge problem are algorithmically equivalent (note that both conversions are valid). The proof is straightforward and deferred to Appendix B. By Theorem 1, it is clear that the minimax optimal algorithm for one setting is also minimax optimal for the other under these conversions. Theorem 1. DGv1 and the Hedge problem are algorithmically equivalent in the following sense: (1) Algorithm 1 produces a DGv1 algorithm DR satisfying LT (DR ) ? i/N where i 2 {0, . . . , N } (i+1)/N i/N is such that RT (H) < R ? RT (H). (2) Algorithm 2 produces a Hedge algorithm H with R?T (H) < R for any R such that LT (DR ) < ?. 3.2 Relaxations From now on we only focus on the direction of converting a drifting game algorithm into a Hedge algorithm. In order to derive a minimax Hedge algorithm, Theorem 1 tells us it suffices to derive minimax DGv1 algorithms. Exact minimax analysis is usually difficult, and appropriate relaxations seem to be necessary. To make use of the existing analysis for standard drifting games, the first obvious relaxation is to drop the additional restriction in DGv1, that is, |zt,i zt,j | ? 1 for all i and j. Doing this will lead to the exact setting discussed in [23] where a near optimal strategy is proposed using the recipe in Eq. (1). It turns out that this relaxation is reasonable and does not give too much more power to the adversary. To see this, first recall that results from [23], written in our P T 2 R T +1 notation, state that minDR LT (DR ) ? 21T j=0 , which, by Hoeffding?s inequality, is upper j ? ? (R+1)2 bounded by 2 exp 2(T +1) . Second, statement (2) in Theorem 1 clearly remains valid if the input of Algorithm game algorithm for this relaxed version ? 2 is a drifting ? ?qof DGv1.?Therefore, by setting 2 (R+1) ? ? > 2 exp T ln( 1? ) , which is the known 2(T +1) and solving for R, we have RT (H) ? O optimal regret rate for the Hedge problem, showing that we lose little due to this relaxation. However, the algorithm proposed in [23] is not computationally efficient since the potential functions t (s) do not have closed forms. To get around this, we would want the minimax expression in Eq. (1) to be easily solved, just like the case when B = { 1, 1}. It turns out that convexity would allow us to treat B = [ 1, 1] almost as B = { 1, 1}. Specifically, if each t (s) is a convex function of s, then due to the fact that the maximum of a convex function is always realized at the boundary of a compact region, we have min max ( w2R+ z2[ 1,1] t (s + z) + wz) = min max ( w2R+ z2{ 1,1} 4 t (s + z) + wz) = t (s 1) + 2 t (s + 1) , (3) Input: A convex, nonincreasing, nonnegative function T (s). for t = T down to 1 do Find a convex function t 1 (s) s.t. 8s, t (s 1) + t (s + 1) ? 2 Set: s0 = 0. for t = 1 to T do Set: H(`1:t 1 ) = pt s.t. pt,i / t (st 1,i 1) t (st 1,i + 1). Receive losses `t and set st,i = st 1,i + `t,i pt ? `t , 8i. t 1 (s). Algorithm 3: A General Hedge Algorithm H with w = ( t (s 1) t (s + 1))/2 realizing the minimum. Since the 0-1 loss function L(s) is not convex, this motivates us to find a convex surrogate of L(s). Fortunately, relaxing the equality constraints in Eq. (1) does not affect the key property of Eq. (2) as we will show in the proof of Theorem 2. ?Compiling out? the input of Algorithm 2, we thus have our general recipe (Algorithm 3) for designing Hedge algorithms with the following regret guarantee. Theorem 2. For Algorithm 3, if R and ? are such that 0 (0) < ? and T (s) 1{s ? R} for all s 2 R, then R?T (H) < R. Proof. It suffices to show that Eq. (2) holds so that the theorem follows by a direct application 1) t (st 1,i + 1))/2. Then P of statement P (2) of Theorem 1. Let wt,i = ( t (st 1,i 0. On the other hand, i t (st,i ) ? i ( t (st 1,i + zt,i ) + wt,i zt,i ) since pt,i / wt,i and pt ?zt by Eq. (3), we have t (st 1,i + zt,i ) + wt,i zt,i ? minw2R+ maxz2[ 1,1] ( t (st 1,i + z) + wz) = 1 1) + t (st 1,i + 1)), which is at most t 1 (st 1,i ) by Algorithm 3. This shows 2 ( t (st 1,i P P (s ) ? i t t,i i t 1 (st 1,i ) and Eq. (2) follows. Theorem 2 tells us that if solving 0 (0) < ? for R gives R > R for some value R, then the regret of Algorithm 3 is less than any value that is greater than R, meaning the regret is at most R. 3.3 Designing Potentials and Algorithms Now we are ready to recover existing algorithms and develop new ones by choosing an appropriate potential T (s) as Algorithm 3 suggests. We will discuss three different algorithms below, and summarize these examples in Table 1 (see Appendix C). Exponential Weights (EXP) Algorithm. Exponential loss is an obvious choice for T (s) as it has been widely used as the convex surrogate of the 0-1 loss function in the literature. It turns out that this will lead to the well-known exponential weights algorithm [14, 15]. Specifically, we pick T (s) to be exp ( ?(s + R)) which exactly upper bounds 1{s ? R}. To compute t (s) for t ? T , we simply let t (s 1) + t (s + 1) ? 2 t 1 (s) hold with equality. Indeed, direct ? ? ?T t ? computations show that all t (s) share a similar form: t (s) = e +e ? exp ( ?(s + R)) . 2 Therefore, according to Algorithm 3, the player?s strategy is to set pt,i / t (st 1,i 1) t (st 1,i + 1) / exp ( ?st 1,i ) , which is exactly the same as EXP (note that R becomes irrelevant after normalization). To derive re? ? ? ? 1 1 gret bounds, it suffices to require 0 (0) < ?, which is equivalent to R > ? ln( ? ) + T ln e +e . 2 By Theorem 2 and Hoeffding?s lemma (see [9, Lemma A.1]), we thus know R?T (H) ? ?1 ln 1? + q q T? 2T ln 1? where the last step is by optimally tuning ? to be 2(ln 1? )/T . Note that this 2 = algorithm is not adaptive in the sense that it requires knowledge of T and ? to set the parameter ?. We have thus recovered the well-known EXP algorithm and given a new analysis using the driftinggames framework. More importantly, as in [26], this derivation may shed light on why this algorithm works and where it comes from, namely, a minimax analysis followed by a series of relaxations, starting from a reasonable surrogate of the 0-1 loss function. 2-norm Algorithm. We next move on to another simple convex surrogate: T (s) = a[s]2 p 1{s ? 1/ a}, where a is some positive constant and [s] = min{0, s} represents a truncating operation. The following lemma shows that t (s) can also be simply described. 5 Lemma 1. If a > 0, then t (s) t satisfies = a [s]2 + T t (s 1) + t (s + 1) ? 2 t 1 (s). Thus, Algorithm 3 can again be applied. The resulting algorithm is extremely concise: pt,i / t (st 1,i 1) t (st 1,i + 1) / [st 1,i 1]2 [st 1,i + 1]2 . We call this the ?2-norm? algorithm since it resembles the p-norm algorithm in the literature when p = 2 (see [9]). The difference is that the p-norm algorithm sets the weights proportional to the derivative of potentials, instead of the difference of them as we are doing here. A somewhat surprising property of this algorithm is that it is totally adaptive and parameter-free (since a disappears under normalization), a property that we usually do not expect to obtain p from a minimax analyp sis. Direct application of Theorem 2 ( 0 (0) = aT < ? , 1/ a > T /?) shows that its regret achieves the optimal dependence on the horizon T . Corollary 1. Algorithm p 3 with potential t (s) defined in Lemma 1 produces a Hedge algorithm H ? such that RT (H) ? T /? simultaneously for all T and ?. NormalHedge.DT. The regret for the 2-norm algorithm does not have the optimal dependence on ?. An obvious follow-up question pwould be whether it is possible to derive an adaptive algorithm that achieves the optimal rate O( T ln(1/?)) simultaneously for all T and ? using our framework. An even deeper question is: instead of choosing convex surrogates in a seemingly arbitrary way, is there a more natural way to find the right choice of T (s)? To answer these questions, we recall that the reason why the 2-norm algorithm can get rid of the dependence on ? is that ? appears merely in the multiplicative constant a that does not play a role after normalization. This motivates us to let T (s) in the form of ?F (s) for some F (s). On the other p hand, from Theorem 2, we also want ?F (s) to upper bound the 0-1 loss function 1{s ? dT ln(1/?)} for some constant d. Taken together, this is telling us that the right choice of F (s) should be of the form ? exp(s2 /T ) 1 . Of course we still need to refine it to satisfy the monotonicity and other properties. We define T (s) formally and more generally as: ? q ? ? 2? ? [s] 1 1 s? dT ln a1 + 1 , T (s) = a exp dT where a and d are some positive constants. This time it is more involved to figure out what other t (s) should be. The following lemma addresses this issue (proof deferred to Appendix C). ? ? 2? ? PT [s] 4 Lemma 2. If bt = 1 12 ? =t+1 exp d? 1 , a > 0, d 3 and t (s) = a exp dt bt (define 0 (s) ? a(1 b0 )), then we have t = 2, . . . , T . Moreover, Eq. (2) still holds. t (s 1) + t (s + 1) ? 2 t 1 (s) for all s 2 R and Note that even if 1 (s 1) + 1 (s + 1) ? 2 0 (s) is not valid in general, Lemma 2 states that Eq. (2) still holds. Thus Algorithm 3 can indeed still be applied, leading to our new algorithm: ? ? ? ? [s +1]2 [st 1,i 1]2 pt,i / t (st 1,i 1) exp t 1,i . t (st 1,i + 1) / exp dt dt Here, d seems to be an extra parameter, but in fact, simply setting d = 3 is good enough: Corollary 2. Algorithm 3 with potential t (s) defined in Lemma 2 and d = 3 produces a Hedge algorithm H such that the following holds simultaneously for all T and ?: q ?p ? 1 R?T (H) ? 3T ln 2? e4/3 1 (ln T + 1) + 1 = O T ln (1/?) + T ln ln T . We have thus proposed a parameter-free adaptive algorithm with optimal regret rate (ignoring the ln ln T term) using our drifting-games framework. In fact, our algorithm bears a striking similarity to NormalHedge [10], the first algorithm that has this kind of adaptivity. We thus name our algorithm NormalHedge.DT2 . We include NormalHedge in Table 1 for comparison. One can see that the main differences are: 1) On each round NormalHedge performs a numerical search to find out the right parameter used in the exponents; 2) NormalHedge uses the derivative of potentials as weights. 1 2 Similar potential was also proposed in recent work [22, 25] for a different setting. ?DT? stands for discrete time. 6 Compared to NormalHedge, the regret bound for NormalHedge.DT has no explicit dependence on N , but has a slightly worse dependence on T (indeed ln ln T is almost negligible). We emphasize other advantages of our algorithm over NormalHedge: 1) NormalHedge.DT is more computationally efficient especially when N is very large, since it does not need a numerical search for each round; 2) our analysis is arguably simpler and more intuitive than the one in [10]; 3) as we will discuss in Section 4, NormalHedge.DT can be easily extended to deal with the more general online convex optimization problem where the number of actions is infinitely large, while it is not clear how to do that for NormalHedge by generalizing the analysis in [10]. Indeed, the extra dependence on the number of actions N for the regret of NormalHedge makes this generalization even seem impossible. Finally, we will later see that NormalHedge.DT outperforms NormalHedge in experiments. Despite the differences, it is worth noting that both algorithms assign zero weight to some actions on each round, an appealing property when N is huge. We will discuss more on this in Section 4. 3.4 High Probability Bounds We now consider a common variant of Hedge: on each round, instead of choosing a distribution pt , the player has to randomly pick a single action it , while the adversary decides the losses `t at the same time (without seeing it ). For now we only focus on the player?s regret to the best action: PT PT RT (i1:T , `1:T ) = t=1 `t,it mini t=1 `t,i . Notice that the regret is now a random variable, and we are interested in a bound that holds with high probability. Using Azuma?s inequality, standard analysis (see for instance [9, Lemma 4.1]) shows that the player can simply draw it according to p pt = H(`1:t 1 ), the output of a standard Hedge algorithm, and suffers regret at most RT (H) + T ln(1/ ) with probability 1 . Below we recover similar results as a simple side product of our drifting-games analysis without resorting to concentration results, such as Azuma?s inequality. For this, we only need to modify Algorithm 3 by setting zt,i = `t,i `t,it . The restriction p t ? zt 0 is then relaxed to hold in expectation. Moreover, it is clear that Eq. (2) also still holds in expectation. P P On the other hand, by definition and the union bound, one can show that R] Pr [RT (i1:T , `1:T ) R]. So setting 0 (0) = shows that i E[L(sT,i )] = i Pr [sT,i ? the regret is smaller thanpR with probability 1 . Therefore, for example, if EXP is used, then the regret would be at most 2T ln(N/ ) with probability 1 , giving basically the same bound as the standard analysis. One draw back is that EXP would need as a parameter. However, this can again be addressed by NormalHedge.DT for the exact same reason that NormalHedge.DT is independent of ?. We have thus derived high probability bounds without using any concentration inequalities. 4 Generalizations and Applications Multi-armed Bandit (MAB) Problem: The only difference between Hedge (randomized version) and the non-stochastic MAB problem [6] is that on each round, after picking it , the player only sees the loss for this single action `t,it instead of the whole vector `t . The goal is still to compete with the best action. A common technique used in the bandit setting is to build an unbiased estimator `?t for the losses, which in this case could be `?t,i = 1{i = it } ? `t,it /pt,it . Then algorithmspsuch as EXP can be used by replacing `t with `?t , leading to the EXP3 algorithm [6] with regret O( T N ln N ). One might expect that Algorithm 3 would also work well by replacing `t with `?t . However, doing so breaks an important property of the movements zt,i : boundedness. Indeed, Eq. (3) no longer makes sense if z could be infinitely large, even if in expectation it is still in [ 1, 1] (note that zt,i is now a random variable). It turns out that we can address this issue by imposing a variance constraint on zt,i . Formally, we consider a variant of drifting games where on each round, the adversary picks a random 2 movement zt,i for each chip such that: zt,i 1, Et [zt,i ] ? 1, Et [zt,i ] ? 1/pt,i and Et [pt ? zt ] 0. We call this variant DGv2 and summarize it in Appendix A. The standard minimax analysis and the derivation of potential functions need to be modified in a certain way for DGv2, as stated in Theorem 4 (Appendix D). Using the analysis for DGv2, we propose a general recipe for designing MAB algorithms in a similar way as for Hedge and also recover EXP3 (see Algorithm 4 and Theorem 5 in Appendix D). Unfortunately so far we do not know other appropriate potentials due to some technical difficulties. We conjecture, however, that there is a potential function that p could recover the poly-INF algorithm [4, 5] or give its variants that achieve the optimal regret O( T N ). 7 Online Convex Optimization: We next consider a general online convex optimization setting [31]. Let S ? Rd be a compact convex set, and F be a set of convex functions with range [0, 1] on S. On each round t, the learner chooses a point xt 2 S, and the adversary chooses a loss function ft 2 F (knowing xt ). The learner then suffers loss ft (xt ). The regret after T rounds is RT (x1:T , f1:T ) = PT PT minx2S t=1 ft (x). There are two general approaches to OCO: one builds on t=1 ft (xt ) convex optimization theory [30], and the other generalizes EXP to a continuous space [12, 24]. We will see how the drifting-games framework can recover the latter method and also leads to new ones. To do so, we introduce a continuous variant of drifting games (DGv3, see Appendix A). There are now infinitely many chips, one for each point in S. On round t, the player needs to choose a distribution over the chips, that is, a probability density function pt (x) on S. Then the adversary decides the movements for each chip, that is, a function zt (x) with range [ 1, 1] on S (not necessarily convex or continuous), subject P to a constraint Ex?pt [zt (x)] 0. At the end, each point x isR associated with a loss L(x) = 1{ t zt (x) ? R}, and the player aims to minimize the total loss x2S L(x)dx. OCO can be converted into DGv3 by setting zt (x) = ft (x) ft (xt ) and predicting xt = Ex?pt [x] 2 S. The constraint Ex?pt [zt (x)] 0 holds by the convexity of ft . Moreover, it turns out that the minimax analysis and potentials for DGv1 can readily be used here, and the notion of ?-regret, now generalized to the OCO setting, measures the difference of the player?s loss and the loss of a best fixed point in a subset of S that excludes the top ? fraction of points. With different potentials, we obtain versions of each of the three algorithms of Section 3 generalized to this setting, with the same ?-regret bounds as before. Again, two of these methods are adaptive and parameter-free. To derive bounds for the usual regret, at first glance it seems that we have to set ? to be close to zero, leading to a meaningless bound. p Nevertheless, this is addressed by Theorem 6 using similar techniques in [17], giving the usual O( dT ln T ) regret bound. All details can be found in Appendix E. Applications to Boosting: There is a deep and well-known connection between Hedge and boosting [14, 29]. In principle, every Hedge algorithm can be converted into a boosting algorithm; for instance, this is how AdaBoost was derived from EXP. In the same way, NormalHedge.DT can be converted into a new boosting algorithm that we call NH-Boost.DT. See Appendix F for details and further background on boosting. The main idea is to treat each training example as an ?action?, and to rely on the Hedge algorithm to compute distributions over these examples which are used to train the weak hypotheses. Typically, it is assumed that each of these has ?edge? , meaning its accuracy on the training distribution is at least 1/2 + . The final hypothesis is a simple majority vote of the weak hypotheses. To understand the prediction accuracy of a boosting algorithm, we often study the training error rate and also the distribution of margins, a well-established measure of confidence (see Appendix F for formal definitions). Thanks to the adaptivity of NormalHedge.DT, we can derive bounds on both the training error and the distribution of margins after any number of rounds: 1 2 ? Theorem 3. After T rounds, the training error of NH-Boost.DT is of order O(exp( )), and 3T 1 ? the fraction of training examples with margin at most ?(? 2 ) is of order O(exp( 3 T (? 2 )2 )). Thus, the training error decreases at roughly the same rate as AdaBoost. In addition, this theorem implies that the fraction of examples with margin smaller than 2 eventually goes to zero as T gets large, which means NH-Boost.DT converges to the optimal margin 2 ; this is known not to be true for AdaBoost (see [29]). Also, like AdaBoost, NH-Boost.DT is an adaptive boosting algorithm that does not require or T as a parameter. However, unlike AdaBoost, NH-Boost.DT has the striking property that it completely ignores many examples on each round (by assigning zero weight), which is very helpful for the weak learning algorithm in terms of computational efficiency. To test this, we conducted experiments to compare the efficiency of AdaBoost, ?NH-Boost? (an analogous boosting algorithm derived from NormalHedge) and NH-Boost.DT. All details are in Appendix G. Here we only briefly summarize the results. While the three algorithms have similar performance in terms of training and test error, NH-Boost.DT is always the fastest one in terms of running time for the same number of rounds. Moreover, the average faction of examples with zero weight is significantly higher for NH-Boost.DT than for NH-Boost (see Table 3). On one hand, this explains why NHBoost.DT is faster (besides the reason that it does not require a numerical step). On the other hand, this also implies that NH-Boost.DT tends to achieve larger margins, since zero weight is assigned to examples with large margin. This is also confirmed by our experiments. Acknowledgements. Support for this research was provided by NSF Grant #1016029. The authors thank Yoav Freund for helpful discussions and the anonymous reviewers for their comments. 8 References [1] Jacob Abernethy, Peter L. Bartlett, Alexander Rakhlin, and Ambuj Tewari. Optimal strategies and minimax lower bounds for online convex games. In Proceedings of the 21st Annual Conference on Learning Theory, 2008. [2] Jacob Abernethy and Manfred K. Warmuth. Minimax games with bandits. In Proceedings of the 22st Annual Conference on Learning Theory, 2009. [3] Jacob Abernethy and Manfred K. Warmuth. Repeated games against budgeted adversaries. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 23, 2010. [4] Jean-Yves Audibert and S?ebastien Bubeck. Regret bounds and minimax policies under partial monitoring. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 11:2785?2836, 2010. [5] Jean-Yves Audibert, S?ebastien Bubeck, and G?abor Lugosi. Regret in online combinatorial optimization. Mathematics of Operations Research, 39(1):31?45, 2014. [6] Peter Auer, Nicol`o Cesa-Bianchi, Yoav Freund, and Robert E. Schapire. The nonstochastic multiarmed bandit problem. SIAM Journal on Computing, 32(1):48?77, 2002. [7] Nicol`o Cesa-Bianchi, Yoav Freund, David Haussler, David P. Helmbold, Robert E. Schapire, and Manfred K. Warmuth. How to use expert advice. Journal of the ACM, 44(3):427?485, May 1997. [8] Nicol`o Cesa-Bianchi and G?abor Lugosi. Potential-based algorithms in on-line prediction and game theory. Machine Learning, 51(3):239?261, 2003. [9] Nicol`o Cesa-Bianchi and G?abor Lugosi. Prediction, Learning, and Games. Cambridge University Press, 2006. [10] Kamalika Chaudhuri, Yoav Freund, and Daniel Hsu. A parameter-free hedging algorithm. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 22, 2009. [11] Alexey Chernov and Vladimir Vovk. Prediction with advice of unknown number of experts. arXiv preprint arXiv:1006.0475, 2010. [12] Thomas M. Cover. Universal portfolios. Mathematical Finance, 1(1):1?29, January 1991. [13] Yoav Freund. Boosting a weak learning algorithm by majority. Information and Computation, 121(2):256?285, 1995. [14] Yoav Freund and Robert E. Schapire. A decision-theoretic generalization of on-line learning and an application to boosting. Journal of Computer and System Sciences, 55(1):119?139, August 1997. [15] Yoav Freund and Robert E. Schapire. Adaptive game playing using multiplicative weights. Games and Economic Behavior, 29:79?103, 1999. [16] Jerome Friedman, Trevor Hastie, and Robert Tibshirani. Additive logistic regression: A statistical view of boosting. Annals of Statistics, 28(2):337?407, April 2000. [17] Elad Hazan, Amit Agarwal, and Satyen Kale. Logarithmic regret algorithms for online convex optimization. Machine Learning, 69(2-3):169?192, 2007. [18] Adam Kalai and Santosh Vempala. Efficient algorithms for online decision problems. Journal of Computer and System Sciences, 71(3):291?307, 2005. [19] Robert Kleinberg. Anytime algorithms for multi-armed bandit problems. In Proceedings of the seventeenth annual ACM-SIAM symposium on Discrete algorithm, pages 928?936. ACM, 2006. [20] Robert David Kleinberg. Online decision problems with large strategy sets. PhD thesis, MIT, 2005. [21] Haipeng Luo and Robert E. Schapire. Towards Minimax Online Learning with Unknown Time Horizon. In Proceedings of the 31st International Conference on Machine Learning, 2014. [22] H Brendan McMahan and Francesco Orabona. Unconstrained online linear learning in hilbert spaces: Minimax algorithms and normal approximations. In Proceedings of the 27th Annual Conference on Learning Theory, 2014. [23] Indraneel Mukherjee and Robert E. Schapire. Learning with continuous experts using drifting games. Theoretical Computer Science, 411(29):2670?2683, 2010. [24] Hariharan Narayanan and Alexander Rakhlin. Random walk approach to regret minimization. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 23, 2010. [25] Francesco Orabona. Simultaneous model selection and optimization through parameter-free stochastic learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 28, 2014. [26] Alexander Rakhlin, Ohad Shamir, and Karthik Sridharan. Relax and localize: From value to algorithms. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25, 2012. Full version available in arXiv:1204.0870. [27] Lev Reyzin and Robert E. Schapire. How boosting the margin can also boost classifier complexity. In Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Machine Learning, 2006. [28] Robert E. Schapire. Drifting games. Machine Learning, 43(3):265?291, June 2001. [29] Robert E. Schapire and Yoav Freund. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. MIT Press, 2012. [30] Shai Shalev-Shwartz. Online learning and online convex optimization. Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 4(2):107?194, 2011. [31] Martin Zinkevich. Online convex programming and generalized infinitesimal gradient ascent. In Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference on Machine Learning, 2003. 9
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Incrementally Learning Time-varying Half-planes Anthony Kuh * Dept. of Electrical Engineering University of Hawaii at Manoa Honolulu, ill 96822 Thomas Petsche t Siemens Corporate Research 755 College Road East Princeton, NJ 08540 Ronald L. Rivest+ Laboratory for Computer Science MIT Cambridge, MA 02139 Abstract We present a distribution-free model for incremental learning when concepts vary with time. Concepts are caused to change by an adversary while an incremental learning algorithm attempts to track the changing concepts by minimizing the error between the current target concept and the hypothesis. For a single halfplane and the intersection of two half-planes, we show that the average mistake rate depends on the maximum rate at which an adversary can modify the concept. These theoretical predictions are verified with simulations of several learning algorithms including back propagation. 1 INTRODUCTION The goal of our research is to better understand the problem of learning when concepts are allowed to change over time. For a dichotomy, concept drift means that the classification function changes over time. We want to extend the theoretical analyses of learning to include time-varying concepts; to explore the behavior of current learning algorithms in the face of concept drift; and to devise tracking algorithms to better handle concept drift. In this paper, we briefly describe our theoretical model and then present the results of simulations *kuh@wiliki.eng.hawaii.edu 920 t petsche@learning.siemens.com +rivest@theory.lcs.mit.edu Incrementally Learning Time-varying Half-planes in which several tracking algorithms, including an on-line version of back-propagation, are applied to time-varying half-spaces. For many interesting real world applications, the concept to be learned or estimated is not static, i.e., it can change over time. For example, a speaker's voice may change due to fatigue, illness, stress or background noise (Galletti and Abbott, 1989), as can handwriting. The output of a sensor may drift as the components age or as the temperature changes. In control applications, the behavior of a plant may change over time and require incremental modifications to the model. Haussler, et al. (1987) and Littlestone (1989) have derived bounds on the number of mistakes an on-line learning algorithm will make while learning any concept in a given concept class. ,However, in that and most other learning theory research, the concept is assumed to be fixed. Helmbold and Long (1991) consider the problem of concept drift, but their results apply to memory-based tracking algorithms while ours apply to incremental algorithms. In addition, we consider different types of adversaries and use different methods of analysis. 2 DEFINITIONS We use much the same notation as most learning theory, but we augment many symbols with a subscript to denote time. As usual, X is the instance space and Xt is an instance drawn at time t according to afixed, ~rbitrary distribution Px. The function Ct : X ~ {O, I} is the active concept at time t, that is, at time t any instan~e is labeled according to Ct. The label of the instance is at = Ct(Xt). Each active concept C i is a member of the concept class C. A sequence of active concepts is denoted c. At any time t, the tracker uses an algorithm ? to generate a hypothesis Ct of the active concept. We use a symmetric distance function to measure the difference between two concepts: d(c, c') = Px[x : c(x) =1= c'(x)]. As we alluded to in the introduction, we distinguish between two types of tracking algorithms. A memory-based tracker stores the most recent m examples and chooses a hypothesis based on those stored examples. Helmbold and Long (1991), for example, use an algorithm that chooses as the hypothesis the concept that minimizes the number of disagreements between cr(xt ) and Ct(Xt). An incremental tracker uses only the previous hypothesis and the most recent examples to form the new hypothesis. In what follows, we focus on incremental trackers. c The task for a tracking algorithm is, at each iteration t, to form a "good" estimate t of the active concept C t using the sequence of previous examples. Here "good" means that the probability of a disagreement between the label predicted by the tracker and the actual label is small. In the time-invariant case, this would mean that the tracker would incrementally improve its hypothesis as it collects more examples. In the time-varying case, however, we introduce an adversary whose task is to change the active concept at each iteration. Given the existence of a tracker and an adversary, each iteration of the tracking problem consists of five steps: (1) the adversary chooses the active concept Cr; (2) the tracker is given an unlabeled instance, Xr, chosen randomly according to Px; (3) the tracker predicts a label using the current hypothesis: at = Ct-l (xt ); (4) the tracker is given the correct label at '= ct(xt ); (5) the tracker forms a new hypothesis: c t = ?(Ct-l, (xt,a t )). 921 922 Kuh, Petsche, and Rivest It is clear that an unrestricted adversary can always choose a concept sequence (a sequence of active concepts) that the tracker can not track. Therefore, it is necessary to restrict the changes that the adversary can induce. In this paper, we require that two subsequent concepts differ by no more than /" that is, d(c t, ct-r) ~ /' for all t. We define the restricted concept sequence space C-y = {c : Ct E C, d(c t , Ct+1) ~ y}. In the following, we are concerned with two types of adversaries: a benign adversary which causes changes that are independent of the hypothesis; and a greedy adversary which always chooses a change that will maximize d(ct, Ct-1) constrained by the upper-bound. Since we have restricted the adversary, it seems only fair to restrict the tracker too. We require that a tracking algorithm be: deterministic, i.e., that the process generating the hypotheses be detenninistic; prudent, i.e., that the label predicted for an instance be a detenninistic function of the current hypothesis: at = Ct-1 (xt ); and conservative, i.e., that the hypothesis is modified only when an example is mislabeled. The restriction that a tracker be conservative rules out algorithms which attempt to predict the adversary's movements and is the most restrictive of the three. On the other hand, when the tracker does update its hypothesis, there are no restrictions on d( Ct. Ct-1). To measure perfonnance, we focus on the mistake rate of the tracker. A mistake occurs when the tracker mislabels an instance, i.e., whenever Ct-1 (xt ) =I Ct(Xt). For convenience, we define a mistake indicator function, M(x t? Ct. Ct-1) which is I if Ct-1(Xt ) =I ct(xt) and 0 otherwise. Note that if a mistake occurs, it occurs before the hypothesis is updateda conservative tracker is always a step behind the adversary. We are interested in the asymptotic mistake rate, p.. = lim inft->oo ~ 2::=0 M(xt. Ct. Ct-l)? Following Helmbold and Long (1991), we say that an algorithm (p.., y)-tracks a sequence space C if, for all C E C-y and all drift rates 1" not greater than 1', the mistake rate p..' is at most p... We are interested in bounding the asymptotic mistake rate of a tracking algorithm based on the concept class and the adversary. To derive a lower bound on the mistake rate, we hypothesize the existence of a perfect conservative tracker, i.e., one that is always able to guess the correct concept each time it makes a mistake. We say that such a tracker has complete side information (CSI). No conservative tracker can do better than one with CSI. Thus, the mistake rate for a tracker with CSI is a lower bound on the mistake rate achievable by any conservative tracker. To upper bound the mistake rate, it is necessary that we hypothesize a particular tracking algorithm when no side information (NSI) is available, that is, when the tracker only knows it mislabeled an instance and nothing else. In our analysis, we study a simple tracking algorithm which modifies the previous hypothesis just enough to correct the mistake. 3 ANALYSIS We consider two concept classes in this paper, half-planes and the intersection of two halfplanes which can be defined by lines in the plane that pass through the origin. We call these classes HS 2 and IHS 2 ? In this section, we present our analysis for HS 2 ? Without loss of generality, since the lines pass through the origin, we take the instance space to, be the circumference of the unit circle. A half-plane in HS 2 is defined by a vector w such that for an instance x, c(x) = 1 if wx ~ 0 and c(x) = 0 otherwise. Without loss of Incrementally Learning Time-varying Half-planes Figure' I: Markov chain for the greedy adversary and (a) CSI and (b) COVER trackers. generality, as we will show later, we assume that the instances are chosen uniformly. To begin, we assume a greedy adversary as follows: Every time the tracker guesses the correct target concept (that is, Ct-l = ct-d, the greedy adversary randomly chooses a vector r orthogonal to w and at every iteration, the adversary rotates w by 7r"l radians in the direction defined by r. We have shown that a greedy adversary maximizes the asymptotic mistake rate for a conservati ve tracker but do not present the proof here. To lower bound the achievable error rate, we assume a conservative tracker with complete side information so that the hypothesis is unchanged if no mistake occurs and is updated to the correct concept otherwise. The state of this system is fully described by d(c t, t ) and, for "I = 1/K for some integer K, is modeled by the Markov chain shown in figure I a. In each state Si (labeled i in the figure), d(cr. Ct) = i"l. The asymptotic mistake rate is equal to the probability of state 0 which is lower bounded by c 1("1) = J2"1/7T' - 2"1/ 7r Since I( "I) depends only on "I which, in tum, is defined in terms of the probability measure, the results holds for all distributions. Therefore, since this result applies to the best of all possible conservative trackers, we can say that Theorem 1. For HS2 , if d(ct, ct-d that the mistake rate p., ~ "I, then there exists a concept sequence C E C-y such > 1("1). Equivalently, C-y is not ("I,p.,)-trackable whenever p., < 1("1). To upper bound the achievable mistake rate, we must choose a realizable tracking algorithm. We have analyzed the behavior of a simple algorithm we call COVER which rotates the hypothesize line just far enough to cover the incorrectly labeled instance. Mathematically, if Wt is the hypothesized normal vector at time t and Xt is the mislabeled instance: -.. Wt = -.. Wt-l - (-..) X t ? Wt-l Xt? (1) In this case, a mistake in state Si can lead to a transition to any state Sj for j ~ i as shown in Figure I b. The asymptotic probability of a mistake is the sum of the equilibrium transition probabilities P(Sj lSi) for all j ~ i. Solving for these probabilities leads to an upper bound u( "I) on the mistake rate: u("I) = J7T'''I/2+''I(2+~) Again this depends only on "I and so is distribution independent and we can say that: Theorem 2. For HS 2 , for all concept sequences c E C-y the mistake rate for COVER p., ~ u("I). Equivalently, C-y is ("I,p.,)-trackable whenever p., < u("I). 923 924 Kuh, Petsche, and Rivest If the adversary is benign, it is as likely to decrease as to increase the probability of a mistake. Unfortunately, although this makes the task ofthe tracker easier, it also makes the analysis more difficult. So far, we can show that: Theorem 3. For HS 2 and a benign adversary, there exists a concept sequence C Eel' such that the mistake rate J.L is O( 'Y 2/ 3). 4 SIMULATIONS To test the predictions ofthe theory and explore some areas for which we currently have no theory, we have run simulations for a variety of concept classes, adversaries, and tracking algorithms. Here we will present the results for single half-planes and the intersection of two half-planes; both greedy and benign adversaries; an ideal tracker; and two types of trackers that use no side information. 4.1 HALF-PLANES The simplest concept class we have simulated is the set of all half-planes defined by lines passing through the origin. This is equivalent to the set classifications realizable with 2-dimensional perceptrons with zero threshold. In other words, if w is the normal vector and x is a point in space, c(x) = 1 if w . x 2:: 0 and c(x) = 0 otherwise. The mistake rate reported for each data point is the average of 1,000,000 iterations. The instances were chosen uniformly from the circumference of the unit circle. We also simulated the ideal tracker using an algorithm called CSI and tested a tracking algorithm called COVER, which is a simple implementation of the tracking algorithm analyzed in the theory. If a tracker using COVER mislabels an instance, it rotates the normal vector in the plane defined by it and the instance so that the instance lies exactly on the new hypothesis line, as described by equation 1. 4.1.1 Greedy adversary Whenever CSI or COVER makes a mistake and then guesses the concept exactly, the greedy adversary uniformly at random chooses a direction orthogonal to the normal vector ofthe hyperplane. Whenever COVER makes a mistake and wt =I w" the greedy adversary choose the rotation direction to be in the plane defined by W t and Wt and orthogonal to w t. At every iteration, the adversary rotates the normal vector of the hyperplane in the most recently chosen direction so that d(c" cr+t> = 'Y, or equivalently, Wt . Wt-l = cos( 1T'Y). Figure 2 shows that the theoretical lower bound very closely matches the simulation results for CSI when 'Y is small. For small 'Y, the simulation results for COVER lie very close to the theoretical predictions for the NSI case. In other words, the bounds predicted in theorems 1 and 2 are tight and the mistake rates for CSI and COVER differ by only a factor of 1T /2. 4.1.2 Benign adversary At every iteration, the benign adversary uniformly at random chooses a direction orthogonal to the normal vector of the hyperplane and rotates the hyperplane in that direction so that d(c" ct+d = 'Y. Figure 3 shows that CSI behaves as predicted by Theorem 3 when J.L = 0.6'Y2/3. The figure also shows that COVER performs very well compared to CSI. Incrementally Learning Time-varying Half-planes 0.500 + o 0 .. , + + 0 ..... . 0.????????? .D????? 0.100 Q) ~ 0.050 ~ .19 (J) ~ 0.010 Theorem 1 Theorem 2 0.005 o CSt + COVER 0.001 L---r------r----~~========:;::::J 0.0001 0.0010 0.0100 0.1000 Rate of change Figure 2: The mistake rate, /.L, as a function of the rate of change, ,)" for HS 2 when the adversary is greedy. 0.5000 Q) ~ 0.1000 0.0500 .d} ???? o. .... t5 .d} ???? Q) .:;t! enttl rlJ? .? ' .fj .... ii???? 0.0100 ~ 0.0050 rn .. ' ~ .....a???? .rn-.... .' 0.0010 19- ? 0 i?..... .' + CSt COVER 0;0005 0.0001 0.0010 0.0100 0.1000 Rate of change Figure 3: The mistake rate, /.L, as a function of the rate of change, ,)" for HS 2 when the adversary is benign. The line is /.L = 0.6,),2/3. 4.2 INTERSECTION OF TWO HALF-PLANES The other concept class we consider here is the intersection of two half-spaces defined by lines through the origin. That is, c(x) = 1 if W IX ~ 0 and W2X ~ 0 and ~(x) = 0 otherwise. We tested two tracking algorithms using no side information for this concept class. The first is a variation on the previous COVER algorithm. For each mislabeled instance: if both half-spaces label Xt differently than Ct(Xt), then the line that is closest in euclidean distance to Xt is updated according to COVER; otherwise, the half-space labeling X t differently than ct(xt ) is updated. The second is a feed-forward network with 2 input, 2 hidden and 1 output nodes. The 925 926 Kuh, Petsche, and Rivest 0.500 r;::::============:;-------------:7~ Theorem 1 Theorem 2 0.100 + Q) ~ 0.050 :i1t ??? , + + .M .??. + + ~ .....~ Ji .... n.'?? 1iiI""'~ .fijt ???? Q) .::t! 1\1 iii ~ 0.010 0.005 0.001 ... ,. ~., .. .~ .... -liit ??? ' ~ w???? 0 CSI + COVER X Back prop L.---r------r----~:;:::========::;::~ 0.0001 0.0010 0.0100 Rate of change 0.1000 Figure 4: The mistake rate, fL, as a function of the rate of change, 'Y, for IHS 2 when the adversary is greedy. thresholds of all the neurons and the weights from the hidden to output layers are fixed, i.e., only the input weights can be modified. The output of each neuron is/CD) = (1 +e -lOwu)-l. For classification, the instance was labeled one if the output of the network was greater than 0.5 and zero otherwise. If the difference between the actual and desired outputs was greater than 0.1, back-propagation was run using only the most recent example until the difference was below 0.1. The learning rate was fixed at 0.01 and no momentum was used. Since the model may be updated without making a mistake, this algorithm is not conservative. 4.2.1 Greedy Adversary At each iteration, the greedy adversary rotates each hyperplane in a direction orthogonal to its normal vector. Each rotation direction is based on an initial direction chosen uniformly at random from the set of vectors orthogonal to the normal vector. At each iteration, both the normal vector and the rotation vector are rotated 7T'Y /2 radians in the plane they define so that d(ct, Ct-l) = 'Y for every iteration. Figure 4 shows that the simulations match the predictions well for small 'Y. Non-conservative back-propagation performs about as well as conservative CSI and slightly better than conservative COVER. 4.2.2 Benign Adversary At each iteration, the benign adversary uniformly at random chooses a direction orthogonal to Wi and rotates the hyperplane in that direction such that d(c t, Ct-l) = 'Y. The theory for the benign adversary in this case is not yet fully developed, but figure 5 shows that the simulations approximate the optimal performance for HS 2 against a benign adversary with c E c'Y/2' Non-conservative back-propagation does not perform as well for very small 'Y, but catches up for 'Y > .001. This is likely due to the particular choice of learning rate. Incrememally Learning Time-varying Half-planes 0.5000 1!9 0.1000 Q) ra ill 0.0500 ~ ~ Q) ~ .:s:. ra Cii 0.0100 ~ 0.0050 X X X ~ 0.0010 a.... ~............ X ~ ~ ....... ....... .J.....~./ ....... ~ ........ . ~ ?????????? ??? + CSI COVER X Back prop 0 0.0005 0.0001 0.0010 0.0100 Rate of change 0.1000 Figure 5: The mistake rate, IL, as a function of the rate of change, y, for IHS 2 when the adversary is benign. The dashed line is IL = O.6( Y /2)2/3. 5 CONCLUSIONS We have presented the results of some of our research applied to the problem of tracking time-varying half-spaces. For HS 2 and IHS2 presented here, simulation results match the theory quite well. For IHS 2 , non-conservative back-propagation perforn1s quite well. We have extended the theorems presented in this paper to higher-dimensional input vectors and more general geometric concept classes. In Theorem 3, IL ~ cy 2/3 for some constant c and we are working to find a good value for that constant. We are also working to develop an analysis of non-conservative trackers and to better understand the difference between conservative and non-conservative algorithms. Acknowledgments Anthony Kuh gratefully acknowledges the support of the National Science Foundation through grant EET-8857711 and Siemens Corporate Research. Ronald L. Rivest gratefully acknowledges support from NSF grant CCR-8914428, ARO grant NOOO14-89-J-1988 and a grant from the Siemens Corporation. References Galletti, I. and Abbott, M. (1989). Development of an advanced airborne speech recognizer for direct voice input. Speech Technology, pages 60-63. Haussler, D., Littlestone, N., and Warmuth, M. K. (1987). Expected mistake bounds for on-line learning algorithms. (Unpublished). Helmbold, D. P. and Long, P. M. (1991). Tracking drifting concepts using random examples. In Valiant, L. G. and Warmuth, M. K., editors, Proceedings of the Fourth Annual Workshop on Computational Learning Theory, pages 13-23. Morgan Kaufmann. Littlestone, N. (1989). Mistake bounds and logarithmic linear-threshold learning algorithms. Technical Report UCSC-CRL-89-11, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz. 927
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Distance-Based Network Recovery under Feature Correlation David Adametz, Volker Roth Department of Mathematics and Computer Science University of Basel, Switzerland {david.adametz,volker.roth}@unibas.ch Abstract We present an inference method for Gaussian graphical models when only pairwise distances of n objects are observed. Formally, this is a problem of estimating an n ? n covariance matrix from the Mahalanobis distances dMH (xi , xj ), where object xi lives in a latent feature space. We solve the problem in fully Bayesian fashion by integrating over the Matrix-Normal likelihood and a MatrixGamma prior; the resulting Matrix-T posterior enables network recovery even under strongly correlated features. Hereby, we generalize TiWnet [19], which assumes Euclidean distances with strict feature independence. In spite of the greatly increased flexibility, our model neither loses statistical power nor entails more computational cost. We argue that the extension is highly relevant as it yields significantly better results in both synthetic and real-world experiments, which is successfully demonstrated for a network of biological pathways in cancer patients. 1 Introduction In this paper we introduce the Translation-invariant Matrix-T process (TiMT) for estimating Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) from pairwise distances. The setup is particularly interesting, as many applications only allow distances to be observed in the first place. Hence, our approach is capable of inferring a network of probability distributions, of strings, graphs or chemical structures. e ? Rn?d We begin by stating the setup of classical GGMs: The basic building block is matrix X which follows the Matrix-Normal distribution [8] e ? N (M, ? ? Id ). X (1) The goal is to identify ??1 , which encodes the desired dependence structure. More specifically, two objects (= rows) are conditionally independent given all others if and only if ??1 has a corresponding zero element. This is often depicted as an undirected graph (see Figure 1), where the objects are vertices and (missing) edges represent their conditional (in)dependencies. ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Figure 1: Precision matrix ??1 and its interpretation as a graph (self-loops are typically omitted). Prabhakaran et al. [19] formulated the Translation-invariant Wishart Network (TiWnet), which treats e as a latent matrix and only requires their squared Euclidean distances Dij = dE (e e j )2 , where X xi , x 1 e Also, SE = X eX e > refers to the n ? n inner-product matrix, which is e i ? Rd is the ith row of X. x linked via Dij = SE,ii + SE,jj ? 2 SE,ij . Importantly, the transition to distances implies that means of the form M = 1n w> with w ? Rd are not identifiable anymore. In contrast to the above, we start off by assuming a matrix e 21 ? N (M, ? ? ?), X := X? (2) where the columns (= features) are correlated as defined by ? ? Rd?d . Due to this change, the e X e > . If we directly observed X as in classical GGMs, inner-product becomes SMH = XX > = X? e then ? could be removed to recover X, however, in the case of distances, the impact of ? and ? is inevitably mixed. A suitable assumption is therefore the squared Mahalanobis distance e j )> ?(e e j ), Dij = dMH (xi , xj )2 = (e xi ? x xi ? x (3) which dramatically increases the degree of freedom for inference about ?. Recall that in our setting e S := SMH , ? and M = 1n w> . only D is observed and the following is latent: d, X, X, The main difficulty comes from the inherent mixture effect of ? and ? in the distances, which blurs or obscures what is relevant in GGMs. For example, if we naively enforce ? = Id , then all of the information is solely attributed to ?. However, in applications where the true ? 6= Id , we would consequently infer false structure, up to a degree where the result is completely mislead by feature correlation. In pure Bayesian fashion, we specify a prior belief for ? and average over all realizations weighted by the Gaussian likelihood. For a conjugate prior, this leads to the Matrix-T distribution, which forms the core part of our approach. The resulting model generalizes TiWnet and is flexible enough to account for arbitrary feature correlation. In the following, we briefly describe a practical application with all the above properties. Example: A Network of Biological Pathways Using DNA microarrays, it is possible to measure the expression levels of thousands of genes in a patient simultaneously, however, each gene is highly prone to noise and only weakly informative when analyzed on its own. To solve this problem, the focus is shifted towards pathways [5], which can be seen as (non-disjoint) groups of genes that contribute to high-level biological processes. The underlying idea is that genes exhibit visible patterns only when paired with functionally related entities. Hence, every pathway has a characteristic distribution of gene expression values, which we compare via the so-called Bhattacharyya distance [2, 11]. Our goal is then to derive a network between pathways, but what if the patients (= features) from whom we obtained the cells were correlated (sex, age, treatment, . . .)? X S = XX t D M = v1td M = 0n?d M = 1n w t input means feature correlation model ? = Id ? ? = Id ? = Id ? gL TRCM gL TiWnet TiMT Figure 2: The big picture. Different assumptions about M and ? lead to different models. Related work Inference in GGMs is generally aimed at ??1 and therefore every approach relies on Eq. (1) or (2), however, they differ in their assumptions about M and ?. Figure 2 puts our setting into a larger context and describes all possible configurations in a single scheme. Throughout the paper, we assume there are n objects and an unknown number of d latent features. Since our inputs are pairwise distances D, the mean is of the form M = 1n w> , but at the same time, we do not 2 impose any restriction on ?. A complementary assumption is made in TiWnet [19], which enforces strict feature independence. n For the models based on matrix X, the mean matrix is defined as M = v1> d with v ? R . This choice is neither better nor worse?it does not rely on pairwise distances and hence addresses a different question. By further assuming ? = Id , we arrive at the graphical LASSO (gL) [7] that optimizes the likelihood under an L1 penalty. The Transposable Regularized Covariance Model (TRCM) [1] is closely related, but additionally allows arbitrary ? and alternates between estimating ??1 and ??1 . The basic configuration for S, M = 0n?d and ? = Id , also leads to the model of gL, however this rarely occurs in practice. 2 Model On the most fundamental level, our task deals with incorporating invariances into the Gaussian model, meaning it must not depend on any unrecoverable feature information, i.e. ?, M = 1n w> (vanishes for distances) and d. The starting point is the log-likelihood of Eq. (2)  `(W, ?, M ; X) = d2 log |W | ? n2 log |?| ? 12 tr W (X ? M )??1 (X ? M )> , (4) where we used the shorthand W := ??1 . In the literature, there exist two conceptually different approaches to achieve invariances: the first is the classical marginal likelihood [12], closely related to the profile likelihood [16], where a nuisance parameter is either removed by a suitable statistic or replaced by its corresponding maximum likelihood estimate [9]. The second approach follows the Bayesian marginal likelihood by introducing a prior and integrating over the product. Hereby, the posterior is a weighted average, where the weights are distributed according to prior belief. The following sections will discuss the required transformations of Eq. (4). 2.1 Marginalizing the Latent Feature Correlation 2.1.1 Classical Marginal Likelihood Let us begin with the attempt to remove ? by explicit reconstruction, as done in McCullagh [13]. Computing the derivative of Eq. (4) with respect to ? and setting it to zero, we arrive at the maximum b = 1 (X ? M )> W (X ? M ), which leads to likelihood estimate ? n b = `(W, M ; X, ?) = d 2 d 2 log |W | ? log |W | ? n 2 n 2 b ? 1 tr(W (X ? M )? b ?1 (X ? M )> ) log |?| 2 > log |W (X ? M )(X ? M ) |. (5) (6) Eq. (6) does not depend on ? anymore, however, note that there is a hidden implication in Eq. (5): b ?1 only exists if ? b has full rank, or equivalently, if d ? n. Further, even d = n must be excluded, ? since Eq. (6) would become independent of X otherwise. McCullagh [13] analyzed the Fisher information for varying d and concluded that this model is ?a complete success? for d  n, but ?a spectacular failure? if d ? n. Since distance matrices typically require d ? n, the approach does not qualify. 2.1.2 Bayesian Marginal Likelihood Iranmanesh et al. [10] analyzed the Matrix-Normal likelihood in Eq. (4) in conjunction with an Inverse Matrix-Gamma (IMG) prior?the latter being a generalization of an inverse Wishart prior. It is denoted by ? ? IMG(?, ?, ?), where ? > 12 (d ? 1) and ? > 0 are shape and scale parameters, respectively. ? is a d ? d positive-definite matrix reflecting the expectation of ?. This combination leads to the so-called (Generalized) Matrix T-distribution1 X ? T (?, ?, M, W, ?) with likelihood `(W, M ; ?, ?, X, ?) = d 2 log |W | ? (? + n2 ) log |In + ?2 W (X ? M )??1 (X ? M )> |. (7) Compared to the classical marginal likelihood, the obvious differences are In and scalar ?, which can be seen as regularization. The limit of ? ? ? implies that no regularization takes place 1 Choosing an inverse Wishart prior for ? results in the standard Matrix T-distribution, however its variance can only be controlled by an integer. This is why the Generalized Matrix T-distribution is preferred. 3 and, interestingly, this likelihood resembles Eq. (6). The other extreme ? ? 0 leads to a likelihood that is independent of X. Another observation is that the regularization ensures full rank of In + ?2 W (X ? M )??1 (X ? M )> , hence any d ? 1 is valid. At this point, the Bayesian approach reveals a fundamental advantage: For TiWnet, the distance matrix enforced independent features, but now, we are in a position to maintain the full model while adjusting the hyperparameters instead. We propose ? ? Id , meaning the prior of ? will be centered at independent latent features, which is a common and plausible choice before observing any data. The flexibility ultimately comes from ? and ? when defining a flat prior, which means deviations from independent features are explicitly allowed. 2.2 Marginalizing the Latent Means The fact that we observe a distance matrix D implies that information about the (feature) coordinate system is irrevocably lost, namely M = 1w> , which is why the means must be marginalized. We briefly discuss the necessary steps, but for an in-depth review please refer to [19, 14, 17]. Following the classical marginalization, it suffices to define a projection L ? R(n?1)?n with property L1n = 0n?1 . In other words, all biases of the form 1n w> are mapped to the nullspace of L. The Matrix T-distribution under affine transformations [10, Theorem 3.2] reads LX ? T (?, ?, LM, L?L> , ?) and in our case (? = Id , LM = L1n w> = 0(n?1)?d ), we have `(? ; ?, ?, LX) = ? d2 log |L?L> | ? (? + n?1 2 ) log |In + ?2 L> (L?L> )?1 LXX > |. (8) Note that due to the statistic LX, the likelihood is constant over all X (or S) mapping to the same D. As we are not interested in any specifics about L other than its nullspace, we replace the image with ?1 the kernel of the projection and define matrix Q := In ? (1> 1n 1> n W 1n ) n W . Using the identity 1 > > > QSQ = ? 2 QDQ and Q W Q = W Q, we can finally write the likelihood as `(W ; ?, ?, D, 1n ) = d 2 log |W | ? d 2 log(1> n W 1n ) ? (? + n?1 2 ) log |In ? ?4 W QD|, (9) > which accounts for arbitrary latent feature correlation ? and all mean matrices M = 1n w . In hindsight, the combination of Bayesian and classical marginal likelihood might appear arbitrary, but both strategies have their individual strengths. Mean matrix M , for example, is limited to a single direction in an n dimensional space, therefore the statistic LX represents a convenient solution. In contrast, the rank-d matrix ? affects a much larger spectrum that cannot be handled in the same fashion?ignoring this leads to a degenerate likelihood as previously shown. The problem is only tractable when specifying a prior belief for Bayesian marginalization. On a side note, the Bayesian posterior includes the classical marginal likelihood for the choice of an improper prior [4], which could be seen in the Matrix-T likelihood, Eq. (7), in the limit of ? ? ?. 3 Inference The previous section developed a likelihood for GGMs that conforms to all aspects of information loss inherent to distance matrices. As our interest lies in the network-defining W , the following will discuss Bayesian inference using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. Hyperparameters ?, ? and d At some point in every Bayesian analysis, all hyperparameters need to be specified in a sensible manner. Currently, the occurrence of d in Eq. (9) is particularly problematic, since (i) the number of latent features is unknown and (ii) it critically affects the balance between determinants. To resolve this issue, recall that ? must satisfy ? > 12 (d ? 1), which can alternatively be expressed as ? = 12 (vd ? n + 1) with v > 1 + n?2 d . Thereby, we arrive at `(W ; v, ?, D, 1n ) = d 2 log |W | ? d 2 log(1> n W 1n ) ? vd 2 log |In ? ?4 W QD|, (10) where d now influences the likelihood on a global level and can be used as temperature reminiscent of simulated annealing techniques for optimization. In more detail, we initialize the MCMC sampler with a small value of d and increase it slowly, until the acceptance ratio is below, say, 1 percent. After that event, all samples of W are averaged to obtain the final network. Parameter v and ? still play a crucial role in the process of inference, as they distribute the probability mass across all latent feature correlations and effectively control the scope of plausible ?. Upon 4 Algorithm 1 One loop of the MCMC sampler Input: distance matrix D, temperature d and fixed v > 1 + n?2 d for i = 1 to n do (p) (p) W ? W, refers to proposal (p) Uniformly select node k 6= i and sample element Wik from {?1, 0, +1} (p) (p) (p) (p) Set Wki ? Wik and update Wii and Wkk accordingly Compute posterior in Eq. (12) and acceptance of W (p) if u ? U(0, 1) < acceptance then W ? W (p) end if end for Sample proposal ? (p) ? ?(?shape , ?scale ) Compute posterior in Eq. (12) and acceptance of ? (p) if u ? U(0, 1) < acceptance then ? ? ? (p) end if closer inspection, we gain more insight by the variance of the Matrix-T distribution, 2(? ? ?) , ?(v d ? 2 n + 1) (11) which is maximal when ? and v are jointly small. We aim for the most flexible solution, thus v is fixed at the smallest possible value and ? is stochastically integrated out in a Metropolis-Hastings step. A suitable choice is a Gamma prior ? ? ?(?shape , ?scale ); its shape and scale must be chosen to be sufficiently flexible on the scale of the distance matrix at hand. Priors for W The prior for W is first and foremost required to be sparse and flexible. There are many valid choices, like spike and slab [15] or partial correlation [3], but we adapt the twocomponent scheme of TiWnet, which has computational advantages and enables symmetric random walks. The following briefly explains the construction: Prior p1 (W ) defines a symmetric random matrix, where off-diagonal elements Wij are uniform on {?1, 0, +1}, i.e. an edge with positive/negative weight or no edge. The diagonal is chosen such that P W is positive definite: Wii ?  + j6=i |Wij |. Although this only allows 3 levels, it proved to be sufficiently flexible in practice. Replacing it with more levels P is possible, but conceptually identical.  n The second component is a Laplacian p2 (W | ?) ? exp ? ? i=1 (Wii ? ) and induces sparsity. Here, the total number of edges in the network is penalized by parameter ? > 0. Combining the likelihood of Eq. (10) and the above priors, the final posterior reads: p(W | ? ) = p(D | W, ?, 1n ) p1 (W ) p2 (W | ?) p3 (? | ?shape , ?scale ). (12) The full scheme of the MCMC sampler is reported in Algorithm 1. Complexity Analysis The runtime of Algorithm 1 is primarily determined by the repeated evaluation of the posterior in Eq. (12), which would require O(n4 ) in the naive case of fully recomputing the determinants. Every flip of an edge, however, only changes a maximum of 4 elements2 in W , which gives rise to an elegant update scheme building on the QR decomposition. Theorem. One full loop in Algorithm 1 requires O(n3 ). Proof. Due to the 3-level prior, there are only 6 possible flip configurations depending on the current edge between object i and j (2 examples depicted here for i = 1, j = 3): (" # " #) ?1 0 +1 0 0 +2 (p) 0 0 0 0 0 0 , ..., ?W := W ? W ? (13) +1 0 ?1 +2 0 0 An important observation is that ?W can solely be expressed in terms of rank-1 matrices, in particular either uv > or uv > + ab> . If we know the QR decomposition of W , then the decomposition 2 This also holds for more than 3 edge levels. 5 Qn of W (p) can be found in O(n2 ). Consequently, its determinant is obtained by det(QR) = i=1 Rii in O(n). Our goal is to exploit this property and express both determinants of the posterior as rank-1 updates to their existing QR decompositions. Restating the likelihood, we have `(W (p) ; ?) = d 2 (p) log |W (p) | ? d2 log(1> 1n ) ? nW | {z } vd 2 =: det1 log |In ? ?4 W (p) QD| . {z } | (14) =: det2 Updating det1 corresponds to either W = W + uv or W = W + uv > + ab> as explained 2 in Eq. (13), thus leading to O(n ). We reformulate det2 to follow the same scheme:   > 1 1 1 W D det2 = In ? ?4 W In ? 1> W n n 1n n h     i > > > 1 ? ?4 ? ? W 1 ? ? v 1 u + b 1 a DW 1 n n n n 1> W 1 n n h (15)    i > > ? > W 1 + v 1 u u + b 1 a Dv ? 4 u ? ? 1> n n n n h    i > ? > ? 4 a ? ? 1n a W 1n + v > 1n u + b> 1n a Db . > (p) (p) For notational convenience, we defined the shorthand 1 1 1 ? := > (p) = > = > . > > > > > 1n W 1n 1n (W + uv + ab )1n 1n W 1n + (1n u)(v 1n ) + (1> n a)(b 1n ) Note that the determinant of the first line in Eq. (15) is already known (i.e. its QR decomposition) and the following 3 lines are only rank-1 updates as indicated by parenthesis. Therefore, det2 is computed in 3 steps, each consuming O(n2 ). For some of the 6 flip configurations, we even have a = b = 0n , which renders the last line in Eq. (15) obsolete and simplifies the remaining terms. Since the for loop covers n flips, all updates contribute as n ? O(n2 ). There is no shortcut to evaluate proposal ? (p) given ?, thus its posterior is recomputed from scratch in O(n3 ). Therefore, Algorithm 1 has an overall complexity of O(n3 ), which is the same as TiWnet. 4 4.1 Experiments Synthetic Data We first look at synthetic data and compare how well the recovered network matches the true one. Hereby, the accuracy is measured by the f-score using the edges (positive/negative/zero). Independent Latent Features Since TiMT is a generalization for arbitrary ?, it must also cover ? ? Id , thus, we generate a set of 100 Gaussian-distributed matrices X with known W and ? = Id , where n = 30 and d = 300. Next, we add column translations 1n w> with elements in w ? Rd being Gamma distributed, however these do not enter D by definition. As TRCM does not account for column shifts, it is used in conjunction with the true, unshifted matrix X (hence TRCM.u). All methods require a regularization parameter, which obviously determines the outcome. In particular, TiWnet and TiMT use the same, constant parameter throughout all 100 distance matrices and obtain the final W via annealing. Concerning TRCM and gL, we evaluate each X on a set of parameters and only report the highest f-score per data set. This is in strong favor of the competition. Boxplots of the achieved f-scores and the false positive rates are depicted in Figure 3, left. As can be seen, TiMT and TiWnet score as high as TRCM.u without knowledge of features or feature translations. We omit gL from the comparison due to a model mismatch regarding M , meaning it will naturally fall short. Instead, the interested reader is pointed to extensive results in [19]. The gist of this experiment is that all methods work well when the model requirements are met. Also, translating the individual features and obscuring them does not impair TiWnet and TiMT. Correlated Latent Features The second experiment is similar to the first one (n = 30, d = 300 and column shifts), but it additionally introduces feature correlation. Here, ? is generated by sampling a matrix G ? N (0d?5d , Id ? I5d ) and adding Gamma distributed vector a ? R5d to 1 GG> . randomly selected rows of G. The final feature covariance matrix is given by ? = 5d 6 Independent Latent Features F?score Correlated Latent Features False positive rate F?score False positive rate 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 TRCM.u TiWnet 0.0 TRCM.u TiWnet TiMT 0.0 TRCM.u TRCM TiMT gL TiWnet TiMT TRCM.u TRCM MODEL MISMATCH gL TiWnet TiMT MODEL MISMATCH Figure 3: Results for synthetic data. Translations do not apply to TRCM.u. Models with violated assumptions (M and/or ?) are highlighted with gray bars. Due to the dramatically increased degree of freedom, all methods are impacted by lower f-scores (see Figure 3, right). As expected, TRCM.u performs best in terms of f-score, which is based on the unshifted full data matrix X with an individually optimized regularization parameter. TiMT, however, follows by a slim margin. On the contrary, TiWnet explains the similarities exclusively by adding more (unnecessary) edges, which is reflected in its increased, but strongly consistent false positive rate. This issue leads to a comparatively low f-score that is even below the remaining contenders. Finally, Figure 4 shows an example network and its reconstruction. Keeping in mind the drastic information loss between true X30?300 and D30?30 , TiMT performs extremely well. ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? True network ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ??? ?? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? TiMT ?? ??? ?? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? TiWnet Figure 4: An example for synthetic data with feature correlation. The network inferred by TiMT (center) is relatively close to ground truth (left), however TiWnet (right) is apparently mislead by ?. Black/red edges refer to +/? edge weight. 4.2 Real-World Data: A Network of Biological Pathways In order to demonstrate the scalability of TiMT, we apply it to the publicly available colon cancer dataset of Sheffer et al. [20], which is comprised of 13 437 genes measured across 182 patients. Using the latest gene sets from the KEGG3 database, we arrive at n = 276 distinct pathways. After learning the mean and variance of each pathway as the distribution of its gene expression values across patients, the Bhattacharyya distances [11] are computed as a 276 ? 276 matrix D. The pathways are allowed to overlap via common genes, thus leading to similarities, however it is unclear how and to what degree the correlation of patients affects the inferred network. For this purpose, we run TiMT alongside TiWnet with identical parameters for 20 000 samples and report the annealed networks in Figure 5. Again, the difference in topology is only due to latent feature correlation. Runtime on a standard 3 GHz PC was 3:10 hours for TiMT, while a naive implementation in O(n4 ) finished after ?20 hours. TiWnet performed slightly better at around 3 hours, since the model does not have hyperparameter ? to control feature correlation. 3 http://www.genome.jp/kegg/, accessed in May 2014 7 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 25 91 ? ? 97 ? 96 ? ? 98 114 96 TiMT 98 96 1 114 89 82 98 114 ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 33 0 3 79 60 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 22 ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 89 ? ? ? ? 115 ? ? ? ? 82 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 3 ? ? ? ? ? 114 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 19 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 96 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 98 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 91 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? TiWnet Figure 5: A network of pathways in colon cancer patients, where each vertex represents one pathway. From both results, we extract a subgraph of 3 pathways including all neighbors in reach of 2 edges. The matrix on the bottom shows external information on pathway similarity based on their relative number of protein-protein interactions. Black/red edges refer to +/? edge weight. Without side information it is not possible to confirm either result, hence we resort to expert knowledge for protein-protein interactions from the BioGRID4 database and compute the strength of connection between pathways as the number of interactions relative to their theoretical maximum. Using this, we can easily check subnetworks for plausibility (see Figure 5, center): The black vertices 96, 98 and 114 correspond to base excision repair, mismatch repair and cell cycle, which are particularly interesting as they play a key role in DNA mutation. These pathways are known to be strongly dysregulated in colon cancer and indicate an elevated susceptibility [18, 6]. The topology of these 3 pathways for TiMT is fully supported by protein interactions, i.e. 98 is the link between 114 and 96 and removing it renders 96 and 98 independent. TiWnet, on the contrary, overestimates the network and produces a highly-connected structure contradicting the evidence. This is a clear indicator for latent feature correlation. 5 Conclusion We presented the Translation-invariant Matrix-T process (TiMT) as an elegant way to make inference in Gaussian graphical models when only pairwise distances are available. Previously, the inherent information loss about underlying features appeared to prevent any conclusive statement about their correlation, however, we argue that neither assumed full independence nor maximum likelihood estimation is reasonable in this context. Our contribution is threefold: (i) A Bayesian relaxation solves the issue of strict feature independence in GGMs. The assumption is now shifted into the prior, but flat priors are possible. (ii) The approach generalizes TiWnet, but maintains the same complexity, thus, there is no reason to retain the simplified model. (iii) TiMT for the first time accounts for all latent parameters of the Matrix Normal without access to the latent data matrix X. The distances D are fully sufficient. In synthetic experiments, we observed a substantial improvement over TiWnet, which highly overestimated the networks and falsly attributed all information to the topological structure. At the same time, TiMT performed almost on par with TRCM(.u), which operates under hypothetical, optimal conditions. This demonstrates that all aspects of information loss can be handled exceptionally well. Finally, the network of biological pathways provided promising results for a domain of non-vectorial objects, which effectively precludes all methods except for TiMT and TiWnet. Comparing these two, the considerable difference in network topology only goes to show that invariance against latent feature correlation is indispensable?especially pertaining to distances. 4 http://thebiogrid.org, version 3.2 8 References [1] G. Allen and R. Tibshirani. Transposable Regularized Covariance Models with an Application to Missing Data Imputation. The Annals of Applied Statistics, 4:764?790, 2010. [2] A. Bhattacharyya. On a Measure of Divergence between Two Statistical Populations Defined by Their Probability Distributions. Bulletin of the Calcutta Mathematical Society, 35:99?109, 1943. [3] M. Daniels and M. Pourahmadi. Modeling Covariance Matrices via Partial Autocorrelations. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 100(10):2352?2363, 2009. [4] A. de Vos and M. Francke. Bayesian Unit Root Tests and Marginal Likelihood. Technical report, Department of Econometrics and Operation Researchs, VU University Amsterdam, 2008. [5] L. Ein-Dor, O. Zuk, and E. Domany. Thousands of Samples are Needed to Generate a Robust Gene List for Predicting Outcome in Cancer. In Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, pages 5923?5928, 2006. [6] P. Fortini, B. Pascucci, E. Parlanti, M. D?Errico, V. Simonelli, and E. Dogliotti. The Base Excision Repair: Mechanisms and its Relevance for Cancer Susceptibility. Biochimie, 85(11):1053?1071, 2003. [7] J. Friedman, T. Hastie, and R. Tibshirani. Sparse Inverse Covariance Estimation with the Graphical Lasso. Biostatistics, 9(3):432?441, 2008. [8] A. K. Gupta and D. K. Nagar. Matrix Variate Distributions. PMS Series. Addison-Wesley Longman, 1999. [9] D. Harville. Maximum Likelihood Approaches to Variance Component Estimation and to Related Problems. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 72(358):320?338, 1977. [10] A. Iranmanesh, M. Arashi, and S. Tabatabaey. On Conditional Applications of Matrix Variate Normal Distribution. Iranian Journal of Mathematical Sciences and Informatics, pages 33?43, 2010. [11] T. Jebara and R. Kondor. Bhattacharyya and Expected Likelihood Kernels. In Conference on Learning Theory, 2003. [12] J. Kalbfleisch and D. Sprott. Application of Likelihood Methods to Models Involving Large Numbers of Parameters. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), 32(2):175?208, 1970. [13] P. McCullagh. Marginal Likelihood for Parallel Series. Bernoulli, 14:593?603, 2008. [14] P. McCullagh. Marginal Likelihood for Distance Matrices. Statistica Sinica, 19:631?649, 2009. [15] T. Mitchell and J. Beauchamp. Bayesian Variable Selection in Linear Regression. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83(404):1023?1032, 1988. [16] S. Murphy and A. van der Vaart. On Profile Likelihood. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 95:449?465, 2000. [17] H. Patterson and R. Thompson. Recovery of Inter-Block Information when Block Sizes are Unequal. Biometrika, 58(3):545?554, 1971. [18] P. Peltom?aki. DNA Mismatch Repair and Cancer. Mutation Research, 488(1):77?85, 2001. [19] S. Prabhakaran, D. Adametz, K. J. Metzner, A. B?ohm, and V. Roth. Recovering Networks from Distance Data. JMLR, 92:251?283, 2013. [20] M. Sheffer, M. D. Bacolod, O. Zuk, S. F. Giardina, H. Pincas, F. Barany, P. B. Paty, W. L. Gerald, D. A. Notterman, and E. Domany. Association of Survival and Disease Progression with Chromosomal Instability: A Genomic Exploration of Colorectal Cancer. In Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, pages 7131?7136, 2009. 9
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Decomposing Parameter Estimation Problems Khaled S. Refaat, Arthur Choi, Adnan Darwiche Computer Science Department University of California, Los Angeles {krefaat,aychoi,darwiche}@cs.ucla.edu Abstract We propose a technique for decomposing the parameter learning problem in Bayesian networks into independent learning problems. Our technique applies to incomplete datasets and exploits variables that are either hidden or observed in the given dataset. We show empirically that the proposed technique can lead to orders-of-magnitude savings in learning time. We explain, analytically and empirically, the reasons behind our reported savings, and compare the proposed technique to related ones that are sometimes used by inference algorithms. 1 Introduction Learning Bayesian network parameters is the problem of estimating the parameters of a known structure given a dataset. This learning task is usually formulated as an optimization problem that seeks maximum likelihood parameters: ones that maximize the probability of a dataset. A key distinction is commonly drawn between complete and incomplete datasets. In a complete dataset, the value of each variable is known in every example. In this case, maximum likelihood parameters are unique and can be easily estimated using a single pass on the dataset. However, when the data is incomplete, the optimization problem is generally non-convex, has multiple local optima, and is commonly solved by iterative methods, such as EM [5, 7], gradient descent [13] and, more recently, EDML [2, 11, 12]. Incomplete datasets may still exhibit a certain structure. In particular, certain variables may always be observed in the dataset, while others may always be unobserved (hidden). We exploit this structure by decomposing the parameter learning problem into smaller learning problems that can be solved independently. In particular, we show that the stationary points of the likelihood function can be characterized by the ones of the smaller problems. This implies that algorithms such as EM and gradient descent can be applied to the smaller problems while preserving their guarantees. Empirically, we show that the proposed decomposition technique can lead to orders-of-magnitude savings. Moreover, we show that the savings are amplified when the dataset grows in size. Finally, we explain these significant savings analytically by examining the impact of our decomposition technique on the dynamics of the used convergence test, and on the properties of the datasets associated with the smaller learning problems. The paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we provide some background on learning Bayesian network parameters. In Section 3, we present the decomposition technique and then prove its soundness in Section 4. Section 5 is dedicated to empirical results and to analyzing the reported savings. We discuss related work in Section 6 and finally close with some concluding remarks in Section 7. The proofs are moved to the appendix in the supplementary material. 1 2 Learning Bayesian Network Parameters We use upper case letters (X) to denote variables and lower case letters (x) to denote their values. Variable sets are denoted by bold-face upper case letters (X) and their instantiations by bold-face lower case letters (x). Generally, we will use X to denote a variable in a Bayesian network and U to denote its parents. A Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph with a conditional probability table (CPT) associated with each node X and its parents U. For every variable instantiation x and parent instantiation u, the CPT of X includes a parameter ?x|u that represents the probability Pr (X = x|U = u). We will use ? to denote the set of all network parameters. Parameter learning in Bayesian networks is the process of estimating these parameters ? from a given dataset. A dataset is a multi-set of examples. Each example is an instantiation of some network variables. We will use D to denote a dataset and d1 , . . . , dN to denote its N examples. The following is a dataset over four binary variables (??? indicates a missing value of a variable in an example): example d1 d2 d3 E e ? e B b b b A a a a C ? ? ? A variable X is observed in a dataset iff the value of X is known in each example of the dataset (i.e., ??? cannot appear in the column corresponding to variable X). Variables A and B are observed in the above dataset. Moreover, a variable X is hidden in a dataset iff its value is unknown in every example of the dataset (i.e., only ??? appears in the column of variable X). Variable C is hidden in the above dataset. When all variables are observed in a dataset, the dataset is said to be complete. Otherwise, the dataset is incomplete. The above dataset is incomplete. Given a dataset D with examples d1 , . . . , dN , the likelihood of parameter estimates ? is defined as: QN L(?|D) = i=1 Pr ? (di ). Here, Pr ? is the distribution induced by the network structure and parameters ?. One typically seeks maximum likelihood parameters ?? = argmax L(?|D). ? When the dataset is complete, maximum likelihood estimates are unique and easily obtainable using a single pass over the dataset (e.g., [3, 6]). For incomplete datasets, the problem is generally nonconvex and has multiple local optima. Iterative algorithms are usually used in this case to try to obtain maximum likelihood estimates. This includes EM [5, 7], gradient descent [13], and the more recent EDML algorithm [2, 11, 12]. The fixed points of these algorithms correspond to the stationary points of the likelihood function. Hence, these algorithms are not guaranteed to converge to global optima. As such, they are typically applied to multiple seeds (initial parameter estimates), while retaining the best estimates obtained across all seeds. 3 Decomposing the Learning Problem We now show how the problem of learning Bayesian network parameters can be decomposed into independent learning problems. The proposed technique exploits two aspects of a dataset: hidden and observed variables. Proposition 1 The likelihood function L(?|D) does not depend on the parameters of variable X if X is hidden in dataset D and is a leaf of the network structure. If a hidden variable appears as a leaf in the network structure, it can be removed from the structure while setting its parameters arbitrarily (assuming no prior). This process can be repeated until there are no leaf variables that are also hidden. The soundness of this technique follows from [14, 15]. 2 Our second decomposition technique will exploit the observed variables of a dataset. In a nutshell, we will (a) decompose the Bayesian network into a number of sub-networks, (b) learn the parameters of each sub-network independently, and then (c) assemble parameter estimates for the original network from the estimates obtained in each sub-network. ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? V ? ? ? ? X V ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Y ? ? ? ? X Y ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Z Z Definition 1 (Component) Let G be a network, O be some observed variables in G and let G|O be the network which results from deleting all edges from G which are outgoing from Figure 1: Identifying components of O. A component of G|O is a maximal set of nodes that are network G given O = {V, X, Z}. connected in G|O. Consider the network G in Figure 1, with observed variables O = {V, X, Z}. Then G|O has three components in this case: S1 = {V }, S2 = {X}, and S3 = {Y, Z}. The components of a network partition its parameters into groups, one group per component. In the above example, the network parameters are partitioned into the following groups: S1 : S2 : {?v , ?v } {?x|v , ?x|v , ?x|v , ?x|v } S3 : {?y|x , ?y|x , ?y|x , ?y|x , ?z|y , ?z|y , ?z|y , ?z|y }. We will later show that the learning problem can be decomposed into independent learning problems, each induced by one component. To define these independent problems, we need some definitions. Definition 2 (Boundary Node) Let S be a component of G|O. If edge B ? S appears in G, B 6? S and S ? S, then B is called a boundary for component S. Considering Figure 1, node X is the only boundary for component S3 = {Y, Z}. Moreover, node V is the only boundary for component S2 = {X}. Component S1 = {V } has no boundary nodes. The independent learning problems are based on the following sub-networks. Definition 3 (Sub-Network) Let S be a component of G|O with boundary variables B. The sub-network of component S is the subset of network G induced by variables S ? B. Figure 2 depicts the three sub-networks which correspond to our running example. The parameters of a sub-network will be learned using projected datasets. ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? V ? ? ? ? X Y Definition 4 Let D = d1 , . . . , dN be a dataset over variables X and let Y be a subset of variables X. The projection Z X V of dataset D on variables Y is the set of examples e1 , . . . , eN , where each ei is the subset of example di which pertains to variables Y. Figure 2: The sub-networks induced ? ? ? ? V v v v X x x x Y ? ? ? Z z z z e1 e2 V v v count 1 2 e1 e2 e3 V v v v ? ? ? ? by adding boundary variables to components. We show below a dataset for the full Bayesian network in Figure 1, followed by three projected datasets, one for each of the sub-networks in Figure 2. d1 d2 d3 ? ? ? ? X x x x count 1 1 1 e1 e2 X x x Y ? ? Z z z count 2 1 The projected datasets are ?compressed? as we only represent unique examples, together with a count of how many times each example appears in a dataset. Using compressed datasets is crucial to realizing the full potential of decomposition, as it ensures that the size of a projected dataset is at most exponential in the number of variables appearing in its sub-network (more on this later). 3 We are now ready to describe our decomposition technique. Given a Bayesian network structure G and a dataset D that observes variables O, we can get the stationary points of the likelihood function for network G as follows: 1. Identify the components S1 , . . . , SM of G|O (Definition 1). 2. Construct a sub-network for each component Si and its boundary variables Bi (Definition 3). 3. Project the dataset D on the variables of each sub-network (Definition 4). 4. Identify a stationary point for each sub-network and its projected dataset (using, e.g., EM, EDML or gradient descent). 5. Recover the learned parameters of non-boundary variables from each sub-network. We will next prove that (a) these parameters are a stationary point of the likelihood function for network G, and (b) every stationary point of the likelihood function can be generated this way (using an appropriate seed). 4 Soundness The soundness of our decomposition technique is based on three steps. We first introduce the notion of a parameter term, on which our proof rests. We then show how the likelihood function for the Bayesian network can be decomposed into component likelihood functions, one for each subnetwork. We finally show that the stationary points of the likelihood function (network) can be characterized by the stationary points of component likelihood functions (sub-networks). Two parameters are compatible iff they agree on the state of their common variables. For example, parameters ?z|y and ?y|x are compatible, but parameters ?z|y and ?y|x are not compatible, as y 6= y. Moreover, a parameter is compatible with an example iff they agree on the state of their common variables. Parameter ?y|x is compatible with example x, y, z, but not with example x, y, z. Definition 5 (Parameter Term) Let S be network variables and let d be an example. A parameter term for S and d, denoted ?d S , is a product of compatible network parameters, one for each variable in S, that are also compatible with example d. Consider the network X ? Y ? Z. If S = {Y, Z} and d = x, z, then ?d S will denote eiwill denote either ?x ?y|x ?z|y or ther ?y|x ?z|y or ?y|x ?z|y . Moreover, if S = {X, Y, Z}, then ?d S P d ?x ?y|x ?z|y . In this case, Pr (d) = ?d ?S . This holds more generally, whenever S is the set of all S network variables. We will now use parameter terms to show how the likelihood function can be decomposed into component likelihood functions. Theorem 1 Let S be a component of G|O and let R be the remaining variables of network G. If variables O are observed in example d, we have ? ?? ? X X ?? ? Pr ? (d) = ? ?d ?d S R . ?d S ?d R If ? denotes all network parameters, and S is a set of network variables, then ? : S will denote the subset of network parameters which pertain to the variables in S. Each component S of a Bayesian network induces its own likelihood function over parameters ? : S. Definition 6 (Component Likelihood) Let S be a component of G|O. d1 , . . . , dN , the component likelihood for S is defined as L(? : S|D) = N X Y i=1 ?di S 4 i ?d S . For dataset D = In our running example, the components are S1 = {V }, S2 = {X} and S3 = {Y, Z}. Moreover, the observed variables are O = {V, X, Z}. Hence, the component likelihoods are L(? : S1 |D) = [?v ] [?v ] [?v ]     L(? : S2 |D) = ?x|v ?x|v ?x|v     L(? : S3 |D) = ?y|x ?z|y + ?y|x ?z|y ?y|x ?z|y + ?y|x ?z|y ?y|x ?z|y + ?y|x ?z|y The parameters of component likelihoods partition the network parameters. That is, the parameters of two component likelihoods are always non-overlapping. Moreover, the parameters of component likelihoods account for all network parameters.1 We can now state our main decomposition result, which is a direct corollary of Theorem 1. Corollary 1 Let S1 , . . . , SM be the components of G|O. If variables O are observed in dataset D, L(?|D) = M Y L(? : Si |D). i=1 Hence, the network likelihood decomposes into a product of component likelihoods. This leads to another important corollary (see Lemma 1 in the Appendix): Corollary 2 Let S1 , . . . , SM be the components of G|O. If variables O are observed in dataset D, then ?? is a stationary point of the likelihood L(?|D) iff, for each i, ?? : Si is a stationary point for the component likelihood L(? : Si |D). The search for stationary points of the network likelihood is now decomposed into independent searches for stationary points of component likelihoods. We will now show that the stationary points of a component likelihood can be identified using any algorithm that identifies such points for the network likelihood. Theorem 2 Consider a sub-network G which is induced by component S and boundary variables B. Let ? be the parameters of sub-network G, and let D be a dataset for G that observes boundary variables B. Then ?? is a stationary point for the sub-network likelihood, L(?|D), only if ?? : S is a stationary point for the component likelihood L(? : S|D). Moreover, every stationary point for L(? : S|D) is part of some stationary point for L(?|D). Given an algorithm that identifies stationary points of the likelihood function of Bayesian networks (e.g., EM), we can now identify all stationary points of a component likelihood. That is, we just apply this algorithm to the sub-network of each component S, and then extract the parameter estimates of variables in S while ignoring the parameters of boundary variables. This proves the soundness of our proposed decomposition technique. 5 The Computational Benefit of Decomposition We will now illustrate the computational benefits of the proposed decomposition technique, showing orders-of-magnitude reductions in learning time. Our experiments are structured as follows. Given a Bayesian network G, we generate a dataset D while ensuring that a certain percentage of variables are observed, with all others hidden. Using dataset D, we estimate the parameters of network G using two methods. The first uses the classical EM on network G and dataset D. The second decomposes network G into its sub-networks G1 , . . . , GM , projects the dataset D on each subnetwork, and then applies EM to each sub-network and its projected dataset. This method is called D-EM (for Decomposed EM). We use the same seed for both EM and D-EM. Before we present our results, we have the following observations on our data generation model. First, we made all unobserved variables hidden (as opposed to missing at random) as this leads to a more difficult learning problem, especially for EM (even with the pruning of hidden leaf nodes). 1 The sum-to-one constraints that underlie each component likelihood also partition the sum-to-one constraints of the likelihood function. 5 1000 Speed?up Speed?up 1000 500 0 500 0 50 60 70 80 9095 Observed % 50 60 70 80 9095 Observed % Figure 3: Speed-up of D-EM over EM on chain networks: three chains (180, 380, and 500 variables) (left), and tree networks (63, 127, 255, and 511 variables) (right), with three random datasets per network/observed percentage, and 210 examples per dataset. Observed % 95.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 95.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% Network Speed-up D-EM alarm 267.67x alarm 173.47x alarm 115.4x alarm 87.67x alarm 92.65x alarm 12.09x win95pts 591.38x win95pts 112.57x win95pts 22.41x win95pts 17.92x win95pts 4.8x win95pts 7.99x Network Speed-up D-EM diagnose 43.03x diagnose 17.16x diagnose 11.86x diagnose 3.25x diagnose 3.48x diagnose 3.73x water 811.48x water 110.27x water 7.23x water 1.5x water 2.03x water 4.4x Network Speed-up D-EM andes 155.54x andes 52.63x andes 14.27x andes 2.96x andes 0.77x andes 1.01x pigs 235.63x pigs 37.61x pigs 34.19x pigs 16.23x pigs 4.1x pigs 3.16x Table 1: Speed-up of D-EM over EM on UAI networks. Three random datasets per network/observed percentage with 210 examples per dataset. Second, it is not uncommon to have a significant number of variables that are always observed in real-world datasets. For example, in the UCI repository: the internet advertisements dataset has 1558 variables, only 3 of which have missing values; the automobile dataset has 26 variables, where 7 have missing values; the dermatology dataset has 34 variables, where only age can be missing; and the mushroom dataset has 22 variables, where only one variable has missing values [1]. We performed our experiments on three sets of networks: synthesized chains, synthesized complete binary trees, and some benchmarks from the UAI 2008 evaluation with other standard benchmarks (called UAI networks): alarm, win95pts, andes, diagnose, water, and pigs. Figure 3 and Table 1 depict the obtained time savings. As can be seen from these results, decomposing chains and trees lead to two orders-of-magnitude speed-ups for almost all observed percentages. For UAI networks, when observing 70% of the variables or more, one obtains one-to-two orders-of-magnitude speedups. We note here that the time used for D-EM includes the time needed for decomposition (i.e., identifying the sub-networks and their projected datasets). Similar results for EDML are shown in the supplementary material. The reported computational savings appear quite surprising. We now shed some light on the culprit behind these savings. We also argue that some of the most prominent tools for Bayesian networks do not appear to employ the proposed decomposition technique when learning network parameters. Our first analytic explanation for the obtained savings is based on understanding the role of data projection, which can be illustrated by the following example. Consider a chain network over binary variables X1 , . . . , Xn , where n is even. Consider also a dataset D in which variable Xi is observed for all odd i. There are n/2 sub-networks in this case. The first sub-network is X1 . The remaining sub-networks are in the form Xi?1 ? Xi ? Xi+1 for i = 2, 4, . . . , n ? 2 (node Xn will be pruned). The dataset D can have up to 2n/2 distinct examples. If one learns parameters without decomposition, one would need to call the inference engine once for each distinct example, in each iteration of the learning algorithm. With m iterations, the inference engine may be called up to m2n/2 times. When learning with decomposition, however, each projected dataset will have 6 1000 0 8 10 12 14 16 Dataset Size 4000 2000 0 0 200 400 Sub?network # iterations # iterations Speed?up 2000 2000 1000 0 0 200 400 Sub?network Figure 4: Left: Speed-up of D-EM over EM as a function of dataset size. This is for a chain network with 180 variables, while observing 50% of the variables. Right Pair: Graphs showing the number of iterations required by each sub-network, sorted descendingly. The problem is for learning Network Pigs while observing 90% of the variables, with convergence based on parameters (left), and on likelihood (right). at most 2 distinct examples for sub-network X1 , and at most 4 distinct examples for sub-network Xi?1 ? Xi ? Xi+1 (variable Xi is hidden, while variables Xi?1 and Xi+1 are observed). Hence, if sub-network i takes mi iterations to converge, then the inference engine would need to be called at most 2m1 +4(m2 +m4 +. . .+mn?2 ) times. We will later show that mi is generally significantly smaller than m. Hence, with decomposed learning, the number of calls to the inference engine can be significantly smaller, which can contribute significantly to the obtained savings. 2 3 10 2 Time Our analysis suggests that the savings obtained from decomposing the learning problem would amplify as the dataset gets larger. This can be seen clearly in Figure 4 (left), which shows that the speed-up of D-EM over EM grows linearly with the dataset size. Hence, decomposition can be critical when learning with very large datasets. 10 SMILE SAMIAM D?EM 1 10 Interestingly, two of the most prominent (non0 10 commercial) tools for Bayesian networks do not 8 10 12 14 Dataset Size exhibit this behavior on the chain network discussed above. This is shown in Figure 5, which compares D-EM to the EM implementations of Figure 5: Effect of dataset size (log-scale) on learnthe G E NI E /SMILE and S AM I AM systems,3 both ing time in seconds. of which were represented in previous inference evaluations [4]. In particular, we ran these systems on a chain network X0 ? ? ? ? ? X100 , where each variable has 10 states, and using datasets with alternating observed and hidden variables. Each plot point represents an average over 20 simulated datasets, where we recorded the time to execute each EM algorithm (excluding the time to read networks and datasets from file, which was negligible compared to learning time). Clearly, D-EM scales better in terms of time than both SMILE and S AM I AM, as the size of the dataset increases. As explained in the above analysis, the number of calls to the inference engine by D-EM is not necessarily linear in the dataset size. Note here that D-EM used a stricter convergence threshold and obtained better likelihoods, than both SMILE and S AM I AM, in all cases. Yet, D-EM was able to achieve one-to-two orders-of-magnitude speed-ups as the dataset grows in size. On the other hand, S AM I AM was more efficient than SMILE, but got worse likelihoods in all cases, using their default settings (the same seed was used for all algorithms). Our second analytic explanation for the obtained savings is based on understanding the dynamics of the convergence test, used by iterative algorithms such as EM. Such algorithms employ a convergence test based on either parameter or likelihood change. According to the first test, one compares the parameter estimates obtained at iteration i of the algorithm to those obtained at itera2 The analysis in this section was restricted to chains to make the discussion concrete. This analysis, however, can be generalized to arbitrary networks if enough variables are observed in the corresponding dataset. 3 Available at http://genie.sis.pitt.edu/ and http://reasoning.cs.ucla.edu/samiam/. SMILE?s C++ API was used to run EM, using default options, except we suppressed the randomized parameters option. S AM I AM?s Java API was used to run EM (via the CodeBandit feature), also using default options, and the Hugin algorithm as the underlying inference engine. 7 tion i ? 1. If the estimates are close enough, the algorithm converges. The likelihood test is similar, except that the likelihood of estimates is compared across iterations. In our experiments, we used a convergence test based on parameter change. In particular, when the absolute change in every parameter falls below the set threshold of 10?4 , convergence is declared by EM. When learning with decomposition, each sub-network is allowed to converge independently, which can contribute significantly to the obtained savings. In particular, with enough observed variables, we have realized that the vast majority of sub-networks converge very quickly, sometimes in one iteration (when the projected dataset is complete). In fact, due to this phenomenon, the convergence threshold for sub-networks can be further tightened without adversely affecting the total running time. In our experiments, we used a threshold of 10?5 for D-EM, which is tighter than the threshold used for EM. Figure 4 (right pair) illustrates decomposed convergence, by showing the number of iterations required by each sub-network to converge, sorted decreasingly, with convergence test based on parameters (left) and likelihood (right). The vast majority of sub-networks converged very quickly. Here, convergence was declared when the change in parameters or log-likelihood, respectively, fell below the set threshold of 10?5 . 6 Related Work The decomposition techniques we discussed in this paper have long been utilized in the context of inference, but apparently not in learning. In particular, leaf nodes that do not appear in evidence e have been called Barren nodes in [14], which showed the soundness of their removal during inference with evidence e. Similarly, deleting edges outgoing from evidence nodes has been called evidence absorption and its soundness was shown in [15]. Interestingly enough, both of these techniques are employed by the inference engines of S AM I AM and SMILE,4 even though neither seem to employ them when learning network parameters as we propose here (see earlier experiments). When employed during inference, these techniques simplify the network to reduce the time needed to compute queries (e.g., conditional marginals which are needed by learning algorithms). However, when employed in the context of learning, these techniques reduce the number of calls that need to be made to an inference engine. The difference is therefore fundamental, and the effects of the techniques are orthogonal. In fact, the inference engine we used in our experiments does employ decomposition techniques. Yet, we were still able to obtain orders-of-magnitude speed-ups when decomposing the learning problem. On the other hand, our proposed decomposition techniques do not apply fully to Markov random fields (MRFs) as the partition function cannot be decomposed, even when the data is complete (evaluating the partition function is independent of the data). However, distributed learning algorithms have been proposed in the literature. For example, the recently proposed LAP algorithm is a consistent estimator for MRFs under complete data [10]. A similar method to LAP was independently introduced by [9] in the context of Gaussian graphical models. 7 Conclusion We proposed a technique for decomposing the problem of learning Bayesian network parameters into independent learning problems. The technique applies to incomplete datasets and is based on exploiting variables that are either hidden or observed. Our empirical results suggest that orders-ofmagnitude speed-up can be obtained from this decomposition technique, when enough or particular variables are hidden or observed in the dataset. The proposed decomposition technique is orthogonal to the one used for optimizing inference as one reduces the time of inference queries, while the other reduces the number of such queries. The latter effect is due to decomposing the dataset and the convergence test. The decomposition process incurs little overhead as it can be performed in time that is linear in the structure size and dataset size. Hence, given the potential savings it may lead to, it appears that one must always try to decompose before learning network parameters. Acknowledgments This work has been partially supported by ONR grant #N00014-12-1-0423 and NSF grant #IIS1118122. 4 SMILE actually employs a more advanced technique known as relevance reasoning [8]. 8 References [1] K. Bache and M. Lichman. UCI machine learning repository. Technical report, Irvine, CA: University of California, School of Information and Computer Science, 2013. [2] Arthur Choi, Khaled S. Refaat, and Adnan Darwiche. EDML: A method for learning parameters in Bayesian networks. In Proceedings of the Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2011. [3] Adnan Darwiche. Modeling and Reasoning with Bayesian Networks. Cambridge University Press, 2009. [4] Adnan Darwiche, Rina Dechter, Arthur Choi, Vibhav Gogate, and Lars Otten. Results from the probabilistic inference evaluation of uncertainty in artificial intelligence UAI-08. http://graphmod.ics.uci.edu/uai08/Evaluation/Report, 2008. [5] A.P. Dempster, N.M. Laird, and D.B. Rubin. Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM algorithm. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 39:1?38, 1977. [6] Daphne Koller and Nir Friedman. Probabilistic Graphical Models: Principles and Techniques. MIT Press, 2009. [7] S. L. Lauritzen. The EM algorithm for graphical association models with missing data. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 19:191?201, 1995. [8] Yan Lin and Marek Druzdzel. Computational advantages of relevance reasoning in Bayesian belief networks. In Proceedings of the Thirteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 1997. [9] Z. Meng, D. Wei, A. Wiesel, and A. O. Hero III. Distributed learning of Gaussian graphical models via marginal likelihoods. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, 2013. [10] Yariv Dror Mizrahi, Misha Denil, and Nando de Freitas. Linear and parallel learning of Markov random fields. In International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2014. [11] Khaled S. Refaat, Arthur Choi, and Adnan Darwiche. New advances and theoretical insights into EDML. In Proceedings of the Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, pages 705?714, 2012. [12] Khaled S. Refaat, Arthur Choi, and Adnan Darwiche. EDML for learning parameters in directed and undirected graphical models. In Neural Information Processing Systems, 2013. [13] S. Russel, J. Binder, D. Koller, and K. Kanazawa. Local learning in probabilistic networks with hidden variables. In Proceedings of the Fourteenth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 1995. [14] R. Shachter. Evaluating influence diagrams. Operations Research, 1986. [15] R. Shachter. Evidence absorption and propagation through evidence reversals. In Proceedings of the Fifth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 1989. 9
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Global Sensitivity Analysis for MAP Inference in Graphical Models Jasper De Bock Ghent University, SYSTeMS Ghent (Belgium) Cassio P. de Campos Queen?s University Belfast (UK) Alessandro Antonucci IDSIA Lugano (Switzerland) jasper.debock@ugent.be c.decampos@qub.ac.uk alessandro@idsia.ch Abstract We study the sensitivity of a MAP configuration of a discrete probabilistic graphical model with respect to perturbations of its parameters. These perturbations are global, in the sense that simultaneous perturbations of all the parameters (or any chosen subset of them) are allowed. Our main contribution is an exact algorithm that can check whether the MAP configuration is robust with respect to given perturbations. Its complexity is essentially the same as that of obtaining the MAP configuration itself, so it can be promptly used with minimal effort. We use our algorithm to identify the largest global perturbation that does not induce a change in the MAP configuration, and we successfully apply this robustness measure in two practical scenarios: the prediction of facial action units with posed images and the classification of multiple real public data sets. A strong correlation between the proposed robustness measure and accuracy is verified in both scenarios. 1 Introduction Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) such as Markov random fields (MRFs) and Bayesian networks (BNs) are widely used as a knowledge representation tool for reasoning under uncertainty. When coping with such a PGM, it is not always practical to obtain numerical estimates of the parameters?the local probabilities of a BN or the factors of an MRF?with sufficient precision. This is true even for quantifications based on data, but it becomes especially important when eliciting the parameters from experts. An important question is therefore how precise these estimates should be to avoid a degradation in the diagnostic performance of the model. This remains important even if the accuracy can be arbitrarily refined in order to trade it off with the relative costs. This paper is an attempt to systematically answer this question. More specifically, we address sensitivity analysis (SA) of discrete PGMs in the case of maximum a posteriori (MAP) inferences, by which we mean the computation of the most probable configuration of some variables given an observation of all others.1 Let us clarify the way we intend SA here, while giving a short overview of previous work on SA in PGMs. First of all, a distinction should be made between quantitative and qualitative SA. Quantitative approaches are supposed to evaluate the effect of a perturbation of the parameters on the numerical value of a particular inference. Qualitative SA is concerned with deciding whether or not the perturbed values are leading to a different decision, e.g., about the most probable configuration of the queried variable(s). Most of the previous work in SA is quantitative, being in particular focused on updating, i.e., the computation of the posterior probability of a single variable given some evidence, and mostly focus on BNs. After a first attempt based on a purely empirical investigation [17], a number of analytical methods based on the derivatives of the updated probability with respect to 1 Some authors refer to this problem as MPE (most probable explanation) rather than MAP. 1 the perturbed parameters have been proposed [3, 4, 5, 11, 14]. Something similar has been done for MRFs as well [6]. To the best of our knowledge, qualitative SA received almost no attention, with few exceptions [7, 18]. Secondly, we distinguish between local and global SA. The former considers the effect of the perturbation of a single parameter (and of possible additional perturbations that are induced by normalization constraints), while the latter aims at more general perturbations possibly affecting all the parameters of the PGM. Initial work on SA in PGMs considered the local approach [4, 14], while later work considered global SA as well [3, 5, 11]. Yet, for BNs, global SA has been tackled by methods whose time complexity is exponential in the number of perturbed conditional probability tables (CPTs), as they basically require the computation of all the mixed derivatives. For qualitative SA, as far as we know, only the local approach has been studied [7, 18]. This is unfortunate, as global SA might reveal stronger effects of perturbations due to synergetic effects, which might remain hidden in a local analysis. In this paper, we study global qualitative SA in discrete PGMs for MAP inferences, thereby intending to fill the existing gap in this topic. Let us introduce it by a simple example. Example 1. Let X1 and X2 be two Boolean variables. For each i ? {1, 2}, Xi takes values in {xi , ?xi }. The following probabilistic assessments are available: P (x1 ) = .45, P (x2 |x1 ) = .2, and P (x2 |?x1 ) = .9. This induces a complete specification of the joint probability mass function P (X1 , X2 ). If no evidence is present, the MAP joint state is (?x1 , x2 ), its probability being .495. The second most probable joint state is (x1 , ?x2 ), whose probability is .36. We perturb the above three parameters. Given x1 ? 0, we consider any assessment of P (x1 ) such that |P (x1 ) ? .45| ? x1 . We similarly perturb P (x2 |x1 ) with x2 |x1 and P (x2 |?x1 ) with x2 |?x1 . The goal is to investigate whether or not (?x1 , x2 ) is also the unique MAP instantiation for each P (X1 , X2 ) consistent with the above constraints, given a maximum perturbation level of  = .06 for each parameter. Straightforward calculations show that this is true if only one parameter is perturbed at each time. The state (?x1 , x2 ) remains the most probable even if two parameters are perturbed (for any pair of them). The situation is different if the perturbation level  = .06 is applied to all three parameters simultaneously. There is a specification of the parameters consistent with the perturbations and such that the MAP instantiation is (x1 , ?x2 ) and achieves probability .4386, corresponding to P (x1 ) = .51, P (x2 |x1 ) = .14, and P (x2 |?x1 ) = .84. The minimum perturbation level for which this behaviour is observed is ? = .05. For this value, there is a single specification of the model for which (x1 , ?x2 ) has the same probability as (?x1 , x2 ), which?for this value?is the single most probable instantiation for any other specification of the model that is consistent with the perturbations. The above example can be regarded as a qualitative SA for which the local approach is unable to identify a lack of robustness in the MAP solution, which is revealed instead by the global analysis. In the rest of the paper we develop an algorithm to efficiently detect the minimum perturbation level ? leading to a different MAP solution. The time complexity of the algorithm is equal to that of the MAP inference in the PGM times the number of variables in the domain, that is, exponential in the treewidth of the graph in the worst case. The approach can be specialized to local SA or any other choice of parameters to perform SA, thus reproducing and extending existing results. The paper is organized as follows: the problem of checking the robustness of a MAP inference is introduced in its general formulation in Section 2. The discussion is then specialized to the case of PGMs in Section 3 and applied to global SA in Section 4. Experiments with real data sets are reported in Section 5, while conclusions and outlooks are given in Section 6. 2 MAP Inference and its Robustness We start by explaining how we intend SA for MAP inference and how this problem can be translated into an optimisation problem very similar to that used for the computation of MAP itself. For the sake of readibility, but without any lack of generality, we begin by considering a single variable only; the multivariate and the conditional cases are dicussed in Section 3. Consider a single variable X taking its values in a finite set Val(X). Given a probability mass function P over X, x ? ? Val(X) is said to be a MAP instantiation for P if x ? ? arg max P (x), x?Val(X) 2 (1) which means that x ? is the most likely value of X according to P . In principle a mass function P can have multiple (equally probable) MAP instantiations. However, in practice there will often be only one, and we then call it the unique MAP instantiation for P . As we did in Example 1, SA can be achieved by modeling perturbations of the parameters in terms of (linear) constraints over them, which are used to define the set of all perturbed models whose mass function is consistent with these constraints. Generally speaking, we consider an arbitrary set P of candidate mass functions, one of which is the original unperturbed mass function P . The only imposed restriction is that P must be compact. This way of defining candidate models establishes a link between SA and the theory of imprecise probability, which extends the Bayesian theory of probability to cope with compact (and often convex) sets of mass functions [19]. For the MAP inference in Eq. (1), performing SA with respect to a set of candidate models P requires the identification of the instantiations that are MAP for at least one perturbed mass function, that is,   Val? (X) := x ? ? Val(X) ?P 0 ? P : x ? ? arg max P 0 (x) . (2) x?Val(X) These instantiations are called E-admissible [15]. If the above set contains only a single MAP instantiation x ? (which is then necessarily the unique solution of Eq. (1) as well), then we say that the model P is robust with respect to the perturbation P. Example 2. Let X take values in Val(X) := {a, b, c, d}. Consider a perturbation P := {P1 , P2 } that contains only two candidate mass functions over X. Let P1 be defined by P1 (a) = .5, P1 (b) = P1 (c) = .2 and P1 (d) = .1 and let P2 be defined by P2 (b) = .35, P2 (a) = P2 (c) = .3 and P2 (d) = .05. Then a and b are the unique MAP instantiations of P1 and P2 , respectively. This implies that Val? (X) = {a, b} and that neither P1 nor P2 is robust with respect to P. For large domains Val(X), for instance in the multivariate case, evaluating Val? (X) is a time consuming task that is often intractable. However, if we are not interested in evaluating Val? (X), but only want to decide whether or not P is robust with respect to the perturbation described by P, more efficient methods can be used. The following theorem establishes how this decision can be reformulated as an optimisation problem that, as we are about to show in Section 3, can be solved efficiently for PGMs. Due to space constraints, the proofs are provided as supplementary material. Theorem 1. Let X be a variable taking values in a finite set Val(X) and let P be a set of candidate mass functions over X. Let x ? be a MAP instantiation for a mass funtion P ? P. Then x ? is the unique MAP instantiation for every P 0 ? P, that is, Val? (X) has cardinality one, if and only if min P 0 (? x) > 0 and 0 P ?P max max 0 x?Val(X)\{? x} P ?P P 0 (x) < 1, P 0 (? x) (3) where the first inequality should be checked first because if it fails, then the left-hand side of the second inequality is ill-defined. 3 PGMs and Efficient Robustness Verification Let X = (X1 , . . . , Xn ) be a vector of variables taking values in their respective finite domains Val(X1 ), . . . , Val(Xn ). We will use [n] a shorthand notation for {1, . . . , n}, and similarly for other natural numbers. For every non-empty C ? [n], XC is a vector that consists of the variables Xi , i ? C, that takes values in Val(XC ) := ?i?C Val(Xi ). For C = [n] and C = {i}, we obtain X = X[n] and Xi = X{i} as important special cases. A factor ? over a vector XC is a real-valued map on Val(XC ). If for all xC ? XC , ?(xC ) ? 0, then ? is said to be nonnegative. Let I1 , . . . , Im be a collection of index sets such that I1 ? ? ? ? ? Im = [n] and ? = {?1 , . . . , ?m } be a set of nonnegative factors over the vectors XI1 , . . . , XIm , respectively. We say that ? is a PGM if it induces a joint probability mass function P? over Val(X), defined by P? (x) := m 1 Y ?k (xIk ) for all x ? Val(X), Z? (4) k=1 P Qm where Z? := x?Val(X) k=1 ?k (xIk ) is the normalising constant called partition function. Since Val(X) is finite, ? is a PGM if and only if Z? > 0. 3 3.1 MAP and Second Best MAP Inference for PGMs ? ? Val(X) is a MAP instantiation for If ? is a PGM then, by merging Eqs. (1) and (4), we see that x P? if and only if m m Y Y ?k (xIk ) ? ?k (? xIk ) for all x ? Val(X), k=1 k=1 ? Ik is the unique element of Val(XIk ) that is consistent with x ? , and likewise for xIk and x. where x Similarly, x(2) ? Val(X) is said to be a second best MAP instantiation for P? if and only if there is a MAP instantiation x(1) for P? such that x(1) 6= x(2) and m m Y Y (2) ?k (xIk ) ? ?k (xIk ) for all x ? Val(X) \ {x(1) }. (5) k=1 k=1 MAP inference in PGMs is an NP-hard task (see [12] for details). The task can be solved exactly by junction tree algorithms in time exponential in the treewidth of the network?s moral graph. While finding the k-th best instantiation might be an even harder task [13] for general k, the second best MAP instantiation can be found by a sequence of MAP queries: (i) compute a first best MAP ? (1) ; (ii) for each queried variable Xi , take the original PGM and add an extra factor instantiation x ? (1) , and run the MAP inference; for Xi that equals 1 minus the indicator of the value that Xi has in x (iii) report the instantiation with highest probability among all these runs. Because the second best has to differ from the first best in at least one Xi (and this is ensured by that extra factor), this procedure is correct and in worst case it spends time equal to a single MAP inference multiplied by the number of variables. Faster approaches to directly compute the second best MAP, without reduction to standard MAP queries, have been also proposed (see [8] for an overview). 3.2 Evaluating the Robustness of MAP Inference With Respect to a Family of PGMs For every k ? [m], let ?k be a set of nonnegative factors over the vector XIk . Every combination of factors ? = {?1 , . . . , ?m } from the sets ?1 , . . . , ?m , respectively, is called a selection. Let ? := ?m k=1 ?k be the set consisting of all these selections. If every selection ? ? ? is a PGM, then ? is said to be a family of PGMs. We then denote the corresponding set of distributions by P? := {P? : ? ? ?}. In the following theorem, we establish that evaluating the robustness of MAP inference with respect to this set P? can be reduced to a second best MAP instantiation problem. Theorem 2. Let X = (X1 , . . . , Xn ) be a vector of variables taking values in their respective finite domains Val(X1 ), . . . , Val(Xn ), let I1 , . . . , Im be a collection of index sets such that I1 ?? ? ??Im = [n] and, for every k ? [m], let ?k be a compact set of nonnegative factors over XIk such that ? = ?m k=1 ?k is a family of PGMs. ? for P? and define, for every k ? [m] and Consider now a PGM ? ? ? and a MAP instantiation x every xIk ? Val(XIk ): ?0k (xIk ) 0 := . (6) ?k := min ? (? x ) and ? (x ) max k k I k k ?0k ??k ?0k ??k ?0k (? x Ik ) ? is the unique MAP instantiation for every P 0 ? P? if and only if Then x m Y (2) (?k ? [m]) ?k > 0 and ?k (xIk ) < 1, (RMAP) k=1 where x(2) is an arbitrary second best MAP instantiation for the distribution P?? that corresponds ? := {?1 , . . . , ?m }. The first criterion in (RMAP) should be checked first because to the PGM ? (2) ?k (xIk ) is ill-defined if ?k = 0. Theorem 2 provides an algorithm to test the robustness of MAP in PGMs. From a computational point of view, checking (RMAP) can be done as described in the previous subsection, apart from the local computations appearing in Eq. (6). These local computations will depend on the particular choice of perturbation. As we will see further on, many natural perturbations induce very efficient local computations (usually because they are related somehow to simple linear or convex programming problems). 4 In most practical situations, some variables XO , with O ? [n], are observed and therefore known to be in a given configuration y ? Val(XO ). In this case, the MAP inference for the conditional mass function P? (XQ |y) should be considered, where XQ := X[n]\O are the queried variables. While we have avoided the discussion about the conditional case and considered only the MAP inference (and its robustness check) for the whole set of variables of the PGM, the standard technique employed with MRFs of including additional identity functions to encode observations suffices, as the probability of the observation (and therefore also the partition function value) does not influence the result of MAP inferences. Hence, one can run the MAP inference for the PGM ?0 augmented with local identity functions that yield y, such that Z?0 P?0 (XQ ) = Z? P? (XQ , y) (that is, the unnormalized probabilities are equal, so MAP instantiations are equal too) and hence the very same techniques explained for the unconditional case are applicable to conditional MAP inference (and its robustness check) as well. 4 Global SA in PGMs The most natural way to perform global SA in a PGM ? = {?1 , . . . , ?m } is by perturbing all its factors. Following the ideas introduced in Section 2 and 3, we model the effect of the perturbation by replacing the factor ?k with a compact set ?k of factors, for each k ? [m]. This induces a family ? of PGMs. The condition (RMAP) can be therefore used to decide whether or not the MAP instantiation for P? is the unique MAP instantiation for every P 0 ? P? . In other words, we have an algorithm to test the robustness of P? with respect to the perturbation P? . To characterize the perturbation level we introduce the notion of a parametrized perturbation ?k of a factor ?k , defined by requiring that: (i) for each  ? [0, 1], ?k is a compact set of factors, each of which has the same domain as ?k ; (ii) if 2 ? 1 , then ?k2 ? ?k1 ; and (iii) ?k0 = {?k }. Given a parametrized perturbation for each factor of the PGM ?, we denote by ? the corresponding family of PGMs and by P? the relative set of joint mass functions. We define the critical perturbation threshold ? as the supremum value of  ? [0, 1] such that P? is robust with respect to the perturbation P? , i.e., such that the condition (RMAP) is still satisfied. Because of the property (ii) of parametrized perturbations, we know that if (RMAP) is not satisfied for a particular value of  then it cannot be satisfied for a larger value and, vice versa, if the criterion is satisfied for a particular value than it will also be satisfied for every smaller value. An algorithm to evaluate ? can therefore be obtained by iteratively checking (RMAP) according to a bracketing scheme (e.g., bisection) over . Local SA, as well as SA of only a selective collection of parameters, come as a byproduct, as one can perturb only some factors and our results and algorithm still apply. 4.1 Global SA in Markov Random Fields (MRFs) MRFs are PGMs based on undirected graphs. The factors are associated to cliques of the graph. The specialization of the technique outlined by Theorem 2 is straightforward. A possible perturbation technique is the rectangular one. Given a factor ?k , its rectangular parametric perturbation ?k is: ?k = {?0k ? 0 : |?0k (xIk ) ? ?k (xIk )| ? ? for all xIk ? Val(XIk )} , (7) where ? > 0 is a chosen maximum perturbation level, achieved for  = 1. For this kind of perturbation, the optimization in Eq. (6) is trivial: ?k = max{0, ?k (? xk ) ? ?} ?k (xIk )+? and, if ?k > 0, then ?k (? xIk ) = 1 and, for all xIk ? Val(XIk ) \ {? xIk }, ?k (xIk ) = ?k (?xI )?? . If k ?k = 0, even for a single k, the criterion (RMAP) is not satisfied and ?k should not be computed. 4.2 Global SA in Bayesian Networks (BNs) BNs are PGMs based on directed graphs. The factors are CPTs, one for each variable, each conditioned on the parents of the variable. Each CPT contains a conditional mass function for each joint state of the parents. Perturbations in BNs can take this into consideration and use perturbations with a direct probabilistic interpretation. Consider an unconditional mass function P over X. A parametrized perturbation P  of P can be achieved by -contamination [2]: P  := {(1 ? )P (X) + P ? (X) : P ? (X) any mass function on X}. 5 (8) It is a trivial exercise to check that this is a proper parametric perturbation of P (X) and that P 1 is the whole probabilistic simplex. We perturb the CPTs of a BN by applying this parametric perturbation to every conditional mass function. Let P (X|Y) =: ?(X, Y) be a CPT. The optimization in Eq. (6) is trivial also in this case. We have ?k = (1?)P (? x|? y ) and, if ?k > 0, then ?k (? xIk ) = 1 and, for all xIk ? Val(XIk )\{? xIk }, (x|y)+ ? ? ?k (xIk ) = (1?)P , where x ? and y are consistent with x and similarly for x, y and x Ik Ik . (1?)P (? x|? y) More general perturbations can also be considered, and the efficiency of their computation relates to the optimization in Eq. (6). Because of that, we are sure that at least any linear or convex perturbation can be solved efficiently and in polynomial time by convex programming methods, while other more sophisticated perturbations might demand general non-linear optimization and hence cannot anymore ensure that computations are exact and quick. 5 5.1 Experiments Facial Action Unit Recognition We consider the problem of recognizing facial action units from real image data using the CK+ data set [10, 16]. Based on the Facial Action Coding System [9], facial behaviors can be decomposed into a set of 45 action units (AUs), which are related to contractions of specific sets of facial muscles. We work with 23 recurrent AUs (for a complete description, see [9]). Some AUs happen together to show a meaningful facial expression: AU6 (cheek raiser) tends to occur together with AU12 (lip corner puller) when someone is smiling. On the other hand, some AUs may be mutually exclusive: AU25 (lips part) never happens simultaneously with AU24 (lip presser) since they are activated by the same muscles but with opposite motions. The data set contains 68 landmark positions (given by coordinates x and y) of the face of 589 posed individuals (after filtering out cases with missing data), as well as the labels for the AUs. Our goal is to predict all the AUs happening in a given image. In this work, we do not aim to outperform other methods designed for this particular task, but to analyse the robustness of a model when applied in this context. In spite of that, we expected to obtain a reasonably good accuracy by using an MRF. One third of the posed faces are selected for testing, and two thirds for training the model. The labels of the testing data are not available during training and are used only to compute the accuracy of the predictions. Using the training data and following the ideas in [16], we build a linear support vector machine (SVM) separately for each one of the 23 AUs, using the image landmarks to predict that given AU. With these SVMs, we create new variables o1,. . ., o45, one for each selected AU, containing the predicted value from the SVM. This is performed for all the data, including training and testing data. After that, landmarks are discarded and the data is considered to have 46 variables (true values and SVM predicted ones). At this point, the accuracy of the SVM measurements on the testing data, if one considers the average Hamming distance between the vector of 23 true values and the vector of 23 predicted ones (that is, the sum of the number of times AUi equals oi over all i and all instances in the testing data divided by 23 times the number of instances), is about 87%. We now use these 46 variables to build an MRF (we use a very simplistic penalized likelihood approach for learning the MRF, as the goal is not to obtain state-of-the-art classification but to analyse robustness), as shown in Fig. 1(a), where SVM-built variables are treated as observational/measurement nodes and relations are learned between the AUs (non displayed AU variables in the figure are only connected to their corresponding measurements). Using the MRF, we predict the AU configuration using a MAP algorithm, where all AUs are queried and all measurement nodes are observed. As before, we characterise the accuracy of this model by the average Hamming distance between predicted vectors and true vectors, obtaining about 89% accuracy. That is, the inclusion of the relations between AUs by means of the MRF was able to slightly improve the accuracy obtained independently for each AU from the SVM. For our present purposes, we are however more interested in the associated perturbation thresholds ? . For each instance of the testing data (that is, for each vector of 23 measurements), we compute it using the rectangular perturbations of Section 4.1. The higher ? is, the more robust is the issued vector, because it represents the single optimal MAP instantiation even if one varied all the parameters of the MRF by ? . To understand the relation between ? and the accuracy of predictions, we have split the testing instances into bins, according to the Hamming distance between true and predicted 6 0.030 0.025 0.020 0.015 0.010 0.005 0.000 0 (a) MRF used in the computations. 1 2 3 4 (b) Robustness split by Hamming distances. Figure 1: On the left, the graph of the MRF used to compute MAP. On the right, boxplots for the robustness measure ? of MAP solutions, for different values of the Hamming distance to the truth. vectors. Figure 1(b) shows the boxplot of ? for each value of the Hamming distance between 0 and 4 (lower ? of a MAP instantiation means lower robustness). As we can see in the figure, the median robustness ? decreases monotonically with the distance, indicating that this measure is correlated with the accuracy of the issued predictions, and hence can be used as a second order information about the obtained MAP instantiation for each instance. 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 The data set also contains information about the emotion expressed in the posed faces (at least for part of the images), which are shown in Figure 2(b): anger, disgust, fear, happy, sadness and surprise. We have partitioned the testing data according to these six emotions and plotted the robustness measure ? of them (Figure 2(a)). It is interesting to see the relation between robustness and emotions. Arguably, it is much easier to identify surprise (because of the stretched face and open mouth) than anger (because of the more restricted muscle movements defining it). Figure 2 corroborates with this statement, and suggests that the robustness measure ? can have further applications. anger disgust fear happy sadness surprise (a) Robustness split by emotions. (b) Examples of emotions. Figure 2: On the left, box plots for the robustness measure ? of the MAP solutions, split according to the emotion that was presented in the instance were MAP was computed. On the right, examples of emotions encoded in the data set [10, 16]. Each row is a different emotion. 7 audiology autos 1 breast-cancer horse-colic Accuracy german-credit pima-diabetes 0.8 hypothyroid ionosphere lymphography mfeat 0.6 optdigits segment solar-flare sonar 0.4 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06  0.04 0.02 0 soybean sponge zoo vowel ? Figure 3: Average accuracy of a classifier over 10 times 5-fold cross-validation. Each instance is classified by a MAP inference. Instances are categorized by their ? , which indicates their robustness (or amount of perturbation up to which the MAP instantiation remains unique). 5.2 Robustness of Classification In this second experiment, we turn our attention to the classification problem using data sets from the UCI machine learning repository [1]. Data sets with many different characteristics have been used. Continuous variables have been discretized by their median before any other use of the data. Our empirical results are obtained out of 10 runs of 5-fold cross-validation (each run splits the data into folds randomly and in a stratified way), so the learning procedure of each classifier is called 50 times per data set. In all tests we have employed a Naive Bayes classifier with equivalent sample size equal to one. After the classifier is learned using 4 out of 5 folds, predictions for the other fold are issued based on the MAP solution, and the computation of the robustness measure ? is done. Here, the value ? is related to the size of the contamination of the model for which the classification result of a given test instance remains unique and unchanged (as described in Section 4.2). Figure 3 shows the classification accuracy for varying values of ? that were used to perturb the model (in order to obtain the curves, the technicality was to split the test instances into bins according to the computed value ? , using intervals of length 10?2 , that is, accuracy was calculated for every instance with ? between 0 and 0.01, then between 0.01 and 0.02, and so on). We can see a clear relation between accuracy and predicted robustness ? . We remind that the computation of ? does not depend on the true MAP instantiation, which is only used to verify the accuracy. Again, the robustness measure provides a valuable information about the quality of the obtained MAP results. 6 Conclusions We consider the sensitivity of the MAP instantiations of discrete PGMs with respect to perturbations of the parameters. Simultaneous perturbations of all the parameters (or any chosen subset of them) are allowed. An exact algorithm to check the robustness of the MAP instantiation with respect to the perturbations is derived. The worst-case time complexity is that of the original MAP inference times the number of variables in the domain. The algorithm is used to compute a robustness measure, related to changes in the MAP instantiation, which is applied to the prediction of facial action units and to classification problems. A strong association between that measure and accuracy is verified. As future work, we want to develop efficient algorithms to determine, if the result is not robust, what defines such instances and how this robustness can be used to improve classification accuracy. Acknowledgements J. De Bock is a PhD Fellow of the Research Foundation Flanders (FWO) and he wishes to acknowledge its financial support. The work of C. P. de Campos has been mostly performed while he was with IDSIA and has been partially supported by the Swiss NSF grant 200021 146606 / 1. 8 References [1] A. Asuncion and D.J. Newman. UCI machine http://www.ics.uci.edu/?mlearn/MLRepository.html, 2007. learning repository. [2] J. Berger. Statistical decision theory and Bayesian analysis. Springer Series in Statistics. Springer, New York, NY, 1985. [3] E.F. Castillo, J.M. Gutierrez, and A.S. Hadi. Sensitivity analysis in discrete Bayesian networks. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part A, 27(4):412?423, 1997. [4] H. Chan and A. Darwiche. When do numbers really matter? Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 17:265?287, 2002. [5] H. Chan and A. Darwiche. Sensitivity analysis in Bayesian networks: from single to multiple parameters. In Proceedings of UAI 2004, pages 67?75, 2004. [6] H. Chan and A. Darwiche. Sensitivity analysis in Markov networks. In Proceedings of IJCAI 2005, pages 1300?1305, 2005. [7] H. Chan and A. Darwiche. On the robustness of most probable explanations. In Proceedings of UAI 2006, pages 63?71, 2006. [8] R. Dechter, N. Flerova, and R. Marinescu. Search algorithms for m best solutions for graphical models. In Proceedings of AAAI 2012, 2012. [9] P. Ekman and W. V. Friesen. Facial action coding system: A technique for the measurement of facial movement. Consulting Psychologists Press, Palo Alto, CA, 1978. [10] T. Kanade, J. F. Cohn, and Y. Tian. Comprehensive database for facial expression analysis. In Proceedings of the Fourth IEEE International Conference on Automatic Face and Gesture Recognition, pages 46?53, Grenoble, 2000. [11] U. Kjaerulff and L.C. van der Gaag. Making sensitivity analysis computationally efficient. In Proceedings of UAI 2000, pages 317?325, 2000. [12] J. Kwisthout. Most probable explanations in Bayesian networks: complexity and tractability. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 52(9):1452?1469, 2011. [13] J. Kwisthout, H. L. Bodlaender, and L. C. van der Gaag. The complexity of finding k-th most probable explanations in probabilistic networks. In Proceedings of SOFSEM 2011, pages 356? 367, 2011. [14] K. B. Laskey. Sensitivity analysis for probability assessments in Bayesian networks. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 25(6):901?909, 1995. [15] I. Levi. The Enterprise of Knowledge. MIT Press, London, 1980. [16] P. Lucey, J. F. Cohn, T. Kanade, J. Saragih, Z. Ambadar, and I. Matthews. The Extended Cohn-Kanade Dataset (CK+): A complete expression dataset for action unit and emotionspecified expression. In Proceedings of the Third International Workshop on CVPR for Human Communicative Behavior Analysis, pages 94?101, San Francisco, 2010. [17] M. Pradhan, M. Henrion, G.M. Provan, B.D. Favero, and K. Huang. The sensitivity of belief networks to imprecise probabilities: an experimental investigation. Artificial Intelligence, 85(1-2):363?397, 1996. [18] S. Renooij and L.C. van der Gaag. Evidence and scenario sensitivities in naive Bayesian classifiers. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 49(2):398?416, 2008. [19] P. Walley. Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities. Chapman and Hall, London, 1991. 9
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Multi-scale Graphical Models for Spatio-Temporal Processes Firdaus Janoos? Huseyin Denli Niranjan Subrahmanya ExxonMobil Corporate Strategic Research Annandale, NJ 08801 Abstract Learning the dependency structure between spatially distributed observations of a spatio-temporal process is an important problem in many fields such as geology, geophysics, atmospheric sciences, oceanography, etc. . However, estimation of such systems is complicated by the fact that they exhibit dynamics at multiple scales of space and time arising due to a combination of diffusion and convection/advection [17]. As we show, time-series graphical models based on vector auto-regressive processes[18] are inefficient in capturing such multi-scale structure. In this paper, we present a hierarchical graphical model with physically derived priors that better represents the multi-scale character of these dynamical systems. We also propose algorithms to efficiently estimate the interaction structure from data. We demonstrate results on a general class of problems arising in exploration geophysics by discovering graphical structure that is physically meaningful and provide evidence of its advantages over alternative approaches. 1 Introduction Consider the problem of determining the connectivity structure of subsurface aquifers in a large ground-water system from time-series measurements of the concentration of tracers injected and measured at multiple spatial locations. This problem has the following features: (i) pressure gradients driving ground-water flow have unmeasured disturbances and changes; (ii) the data contains only concentration of the tracer, not flow direction or velocity; (iii) there are regions of high permeability where ground water flows at (relatively) high speeds and tracer concentration is conserved and transported over large distances (iv) there are regions of low permeability where ground water diffuses slowly into the bed-rock and the tracer is dispersed over small spatial scales and longer time-scales. Reconstructing the underlying network structure from spatio-temporal data occurring at multiple spatial and temporal scales arises in a large number of fields. An especially important set of applications arise in exploration geophysics, hydrology, petroleum engineering and mining where the aim is to determine the connectivity of a particular geological structure from sparsely distributed time-series readings [16]. Examples include exploration of ground-water systems and petroleum reservoirs from tracer concentrations at key locations, or use of electrical, induced-polarization and electro-magnetic surveys to determine networks of ore deposits, groundwater, petroleum, pollutants and other buried structures [24]. Other examples of multi-scale spatio-temporal phenomena with the network structure include: flow of information through neural/brain networks [15], traffic flow through traffic networks[3]; spread of memes through social networks [23]; diffusion of salinity, temperature, pressure and pollutants in atmospheric sciences and oceanography [9]; transmission networks for genes, populations and diseases in ecology and epidemiology; spread of tracers and drugs through biological networks [17] etc. . ? Corresponding Author:firdaus@ieee.org 1 These systems typically exhibit the following features: (i) the physics are linear in the observed / state variables (e.g. pressure, temperature, concentration, current) but non-linear in the unknown parameter that determines interactions (e.g. permeability, permittivity, conductance); (ii) there may be unobserved / unknown disturbances to the system; (iv) (Multi-scale structure) there are interactions occurring over large spatial scales versus those primarily in local neighborhoods. Moreover, the large-scale and small-scale processes exhibit characteristic time-scales determined by the balance of convection velocity and diffusivity of the system. A physics-based approach to estimating the structure of such systems from observed data is by inverting the governing equations [1]. However, in most cases inversion is extremely ill-posed [21] due to non-linearity in model parameters and sparsity of data with respect to the size of the parameter space, necessitating strong priors on the solution which are rarely available. In contrast, there is a large body of literature on structure learning for time-series using data-driven methods, primarily developed for econometric and neuroscientific data1 . The most common approach is to learn vector auto-regressive (VAR) models, either directly in the time domain[10] or in the frequency domain[4]. These implicitly assume that all dynamics and interactions occur at similar time-scales and are acquired at the same frequency [14], although VAR models for data at different sampling rates have also been proposed [2]. These models, however, do not address the problem of interactions occurring at multiple scales of space and time, and as we show, can be very inefficient for such systems. Multi-scale graphical models have been constructed as pyramids of latent variables, where higher levels aggregate interactions at progressively larger scales [25]. These techniques are designed for regular grids such as images, and are not directly applicable to unstructured grids, where spatial distance is not necessarily related to the dependence between variables. Also, they construct O(log N ) deep trees thereby requiring an extremely large (O(N )) latent variable space. In this paper, we propose a new approach to learning the graphical structure of a multi-scale spatiotemporal system using a hierarchy of VAR models with one VAR system representing the largescale (global) system and one VAR-X model for the (small-scale) local interactions. The main contribution of this paper is to model the global system as a flow network in which the observed variable both convects and diffuses between sites. Convection-diffusion (C?D) processes naturally exhibit multi-scale dynamics [8] and although at small spatial scales their dynamics are varied and transient, at larger spatial scales these processes are smooth, stable and easy to approximate with coarse models [13]. Based on this property, we derive a regularization that replicates the large-scale dynamics of C?D processes. The hierarchial model along with this physically derived prior learns graphical structures that are not only extremely sparse and rich in their description of the data, but also physically meaningful. The multi-scale model both reduces the number of edges in the graph by clustering nodes and also has smaller order than an equivalent VAR model. Next in Section 3, model relaxations to simplify estimation along with efficient algorithms are developed. In Section 4, we present an application to learning the connectivity structure for a class of problems dealing with flow through a medium under a potential/pressure field and provide theoretical and empirical evidence of its advantages over alternative approaches. One similar approach is that of clustering variables while learning the VAR structure [12] using sampling-based inference. This method does not, however, model dynamical interactions between the clusters themselves. Alternative techniques such as independent process analysis [20] and ARPCA [7] have also been proposed where auto-regressive models are applied to latent variables obtained by ICA or PCA of the original variables. Again, because these are AR not VAR models, the interactions between the latent variables are not captured, and moreover, they do not model the dynamics of the original space. In contrast to these methods, the main aspects of our paper are a hierarchy of dynamical models where each level explicitly corresponds to a spatio-temporal scale along with efficient algorithms to estimate their parameters. Moreover, as we show in Section 4, the prior derived from the physics of C?D processes is critical to estimating meaningful multi-scale graphical structures. 2 Multi-scale Graphical Model Notation: Throughout the paper, upper case letters indicate matrices and lower-case boldface for vectors, subscript for vector components and [t] for time-indexing. 1 http://clopinet.com/isabelle/Projects/NIPS2009+/ 2 Let y ? RN ?T , where y[t] = {y1 [t] . . . yN [t]}; t = 1 . . . T , be the time-series data observed at N sites over T time-points. To capture the multi-scale structure of interactions at local and global scales, we introduce the K?dimensional (K  N ) latent process x[t] = {x1 [t] . . . xK [t]}; t = 1 . . . T to represent K global components that interact with each other. Each observed process yi is then a summation of local interactions along with a global interaction. Specifically: Global?process: Local?process: P A[p]x[t ? p] + u[t], x[t] = P PQ p=1 y[t] = q=1 B[q]y[t ? q] + Zx[t] + v[t]. (1) Here Zi,k , i = 1 . . . N, k = 1 . . . K are binary variables indicating if site yi belongs to global component xk . The N ? N matrices B[1] . . . B[Q] capture the graphical structure and dynamics of the local interactions between all yi and yj , while the set of K ? K matrices A = {A1 . . . A[P ]} determines the large-scale graphical structure as well as the overall dynamical behavior of the system. The processes v ? N (0, ?v2 I) and u ? N (0, ?u2 I) are iid innovations injected into the system at the global and local scale respectively. Remark: From a graphical perspective, two latent components xk and xl are conditionally independent given all other components xm , ?m 6= k, l if and only if A[p]i,j = 0 for all p = 1 . . . P . Moreover, two nodes yi and yj are conditionally independent given all other nodes ym 6= i, j and latent components xk , ?k = 1 . . . K, if and only if B[q]i,j = 0 for all q = 1 . . . Q. To create the multi-scale hierarchy in the graphical structure, the following two conditions are imposed: (i) each yi belong to only one global component xk , i.e. Zi,k Zi,l = ?[k, l], ?i = 1 . . . N ; and (ii) Bi,j be non-zero only for nodes within the same component, i.e. Bi,j = 0 if yi and yj belong to different global components xk and xk0 . The advantages of this model over a VAR graphical model are two fold: (i) the hierarchical structure, the fact that K  N and that yi ? yj only if they are in the same global component results in a very sparse graphical model with a rich multi-scale interpretation; and (ii) as per Theorem 1, the model of eqn. (1) is significantly more parsimonious than an equivalent VAR model for data that is inherently multi-scale. Theorem 1. The model of P eqn. (1) is equivalent PS to a vector auto-regressive moving-average (VARMA) process y[t] = R r=1 D[r]y[t ? r] + s=0 E[s][t ? s] where P ? R ? P + Q and 0 ? S ? P , D[r] are N ? N full-rank matrices and E[s] are N ? N matrices with rank less than K. Moreover the upper bounds are tight if the model of eqn. (1) is minimal. The proof is given in Supplemental Appendix A. The multi-scale spatio-temporal dynamics are modeled as stable convection?diffusion (C?D) processes governed by hyperbolic?parabolic PDEs of the form ?y/?t + ? ? (~cy) = ? ? ?? + s, where y is the quantity corresponding to y, ? is the diffusivity and c is the convection velocity and s is an exogenous source. The balance between convection and diffusion is quantified by the P?eclet number2 of the system [8]. These processes are non-linear in diffusivity and velocity and a full-physics inversion involves estimating ? and ~c at each spatial location, which is a highly ill-posed and under-constrained[1]. However, because for systems with physically reasonable P?eclet numbers, dynamics at larger scales can be accurately approximated on increasingly coarse grids [13], we simplify the model by assuming that conditioned on the rest of the system, the large-scale dynamics between any two components xi ? xj | xk ?k 6= i, j can be approximated by a 1-d C?D system with constant P?eclet number. This approximation allows us to use Proposition 2: Theorem 2. For the VAR system of eqn. (1), if the dynamics between any two variables xi ? xj | xk ?k 6= i, j are 1?d C?D with infinite boundary conditions and constant P?eclet number, then the VAR coefficients Ai,j [t] can be approximated by a Gaussian function Ai,j [t] ?  q 2 ?2 2 2 exp ?0.5(t ? ?i,j ) ?i,j / 2??i,j where ?i,j is equal to the distance between i and j and ?i,j is proportional to the product of the distance and the P?eclet number. Moreover, this approximation has a multiplicative-error exp(?O(t3 )). Proof is given in Supplemental Appendix B. In effect, the dynamics of a multi-dimensional (i.e. 2-d or 3-d) continuous spatial system are approximated as a network of 1-dimensional point-to-point flows consisting of a combination of advection 2 The P?eclet number Pe = Lc/? is a dimensionless quantity which determines the ratio of advective to diffusive transfer, where L is the characteristic length, c is the advective velocity and ? is the diffusivity of the system 3 and diffusion. Although in general, the dynamics of higher-dimensional physical systems are not equivalent to super-position of lower-dimensional systems, as we show in this paper, the stability of C?D physics [13] allows replicating the large-scale graphical structure and dynamics, while avoiding the ill-conditioned and computationally expensive inversion of a full-physics model. Moreover, the stability of the C?D impulse response function ensures that the resulting VAR system is also stable. 3 Model Relaxation and Regularization As the model of eqn. (1) contains non-linear interactions of real-valued variables x, A and B with binary Z along with mixed constraints, direct estimation would require solving a mixed integer non-linear problem. Instead, in this section we present relaxations and regularizations that allow estimation of model parameters via convex optimization. The next theorem states that for a given assignment of measurement sites to global components, the interactions within a component do not affect the interactions between components, which enables replacing the mixed non-linearity due to the constraints on B[q] with a set of unconstrained diagonal matrices C[q], q = 1 . . . Q. Theorem 3. For a given global-component assignment Z, if A? and x? are local optima to the least-squares problem of eqn. (1), then they are also a local optimum to the least-squares problem for: x[t] = P X A[p]x[t ? p] + u[t] y[t] = and p=1 Q X C[p]y[t ? q] + Zx[t] + v[t], (2) q=1 where C[r], r = 1 . . . b are diagonal matrices. The proof is given in Supplemental Appendix C. PN PQ Furthermore, a LASSO regularization term proportional kCk1 = i=1 q=1 |C[q][i, i] is added to reduce the number of non-zero coefficients and thereby the effective order of C . Next, the binary indicator variables Zi,k are relaxed to be real-valued. Also, an `1 penalty, which promotes sparsity, combined with an `2 term has been shown to estimate disjoint clusters[19]. Therefore, the spatial disjointedness constraint Zi,k Zi,l = ?k,l , ?i = 1 . . . N , is relaxed by a penalty proportional to kZi,? k1 along with the constraint that for each yi , the indicator vector Zi,? should lie within the unit sphere, i.e. kZi,? k2 ? 1. This penalty, which also ensures that |Zi,k | ? 1, allows interpretation of Zi,? as a soft cluster membership. One way to regularize Ai,j according to Theorem2 would be to directly ? parameterize it as a Gaussian function. Instead, observe thatR G(t) = exp ?0.5(t ? ?)2 /? 2 / 2?? 2 satisfies the equation [?t + (t ? ?)/?] G = 0, subject to G(t)dt = 1. Therefore, defining the discrete version of this operator as D(?i,j ), a P ? P diagonal matrix, the regularization A is as a penalty proportional to kD(?)Ak2,1 = X kD(?i,j )Ai,j k2 where D (?i,j )p,p = ?bp + ?i,j (p ? ?i,j ) , (3) i,j P along with the relaxed constraint 0 ? p Ai,j [p] ? 1. Here, ?bp is an approximation to timedifferentiation, ?i,j is equal to the distance between i and j which is known, and ?i,j ? ? is inversely proportional to ?i,j . Importantly, this formulation also admits 0 as a valid solution and has two 2 advantages over direct parametrization: (i) it replaces a problem that is non-linear in ?i,j ; i, j = 1 . . . K with a penalty that is linear in Ai,j ; and (ii) unlike Gaussian parametrization, it admits the sparse solution Ai,j = 0 for the case when xi does not directly affect xj . The constant ? > 0 is a userspecified parameter which prevents ?i,j from taking on very small values, thereby obviation solutions of Ai,j with extremely large variance i.e. with very small but non-zero value. This penalty, derived from considerations of the dynamics of multi-scale spatio-temporal systems, is the key difference of the proposed method as compared to sparse time-series graphical model via group LASSO [11]. Putting it all together, the multi-scale graphical model is obtained by optimizing: [x? , A? , C? , Z? , ? ? ] = argmin f (x, A, C, Z, ?) + g(x, A, C, Z) (4) x,A,C,Z,? subject to kZi,? k22 ? 1 for all i = 1 . . . N and 0 ? p Ai,j [p] ? 1 for all i, j = 1 . . . K , and ?i,j ? ?, ?i, j = 1 . . . K . The objective function is split into a smooth portion : P 2 2 Q T P X X X f (x, ?) = A[p]x[t ? p] C[q]y[t ? q] ? Zx[t] + ?0 x[t] ? y[t] ? t=1 q=1 2 4 p=1 2 and a non-smooth portion g(?) = ?1 kD(?)Ak2,1 + ?2 kCk2,1 + ?3 kZk1 . After solving eqn. (4), the local graphical structure within each global component is obtained by solving: B? = 2 PQ PT argminB t=1 y[t] ? q=1 B[q]y[t ? q] ? Z? x? [t] + ?4 kBk2,1 , where the zeros of B[q] are pre2 determined from Z? . 3.1 Optimization Given values of [A, Z, C], the problem of eqn. (4) is unconstrained and strictly convex in x and ? and given [x, ?], it is unconstrained and strictly convex in C and convex constrained in A and Z. Therefore, under these conditions block coordinate descent (BCD) is guaranteed to produce a sequence of solutions that converge to a stationary point [22]. To avoid saddle-points and achieve local-minima, a random feasible-direction heuristic is used at stationary points. Defining blocks of variables to be [x, ?], and [A, C, Z], BCD operates as follows: 1 Initialize x(0) and ? (0) 2 Set n = 0 and repeat until convergence: [A(n+1) , Z(n+1) , C(n+1) ] ? min f (x(n) , A, C, Z, ? (n) ) + g(x(n) , A, C, Z) [A,Z,C] [x (n+1) ,? (n+1) ] ? min f (x, A(n+1) , C(n+1) , Z(n+1) , ?) + g(x, A(n+1) , C(n+1) , Z(n+1) ). [x,?] At each iteration x(n+1) is obtained by directly solving a T ? T tri-diagonal Toeplitz system with blocks of size KP which has a have running time of O(T ? KP 3 ) (?Supplemental Appendix D for details). Estimating ? (n+1) given A(n+1) is obtained by solving min?i,j subject to ?i,j  max ?, ? P  2 bp Ai,j [p] + ?i,j (p ? ?i,j ) Ai,j [p] ? p=1 PP ? for all i, j = 1 . . . K and i  P 2 . p ?t Ai,j (p ? ?i,j ) Ai,j / p ((p ? ?i,j ) Ai,j ) > 6= j. (n+1) This gives ?i,j = Optimization with respect to A, Z, C is performed using ?proximal splitting with Nesterov acceleration [5]pwhich produces ?optimal solutions in O(1/ ) time, where the constant factor depends on L(?? f ), the Lipschitz constant of the gradient of the smooth portion f . Defining ? = [A, Z, C], the  key step in the optimization are proximal-gradient-descent operations of the form:   , where m is the current gradient-descent ?(m) = prox?m g ?(m?1) ? ?m ?? f x(n) , ? (n) , ?(m?1) iterate, ?m is the step size and the proximal operator is defined as: proxg (?) = min? g(x(n) , ? (n) , ?)+ 1 k? ? ?k2 . 2 The gradients ?A f , ?C f and ?Z f are straightforward to compute. As shown in Supplemental Appendix E.1, the problem in Z is decomposable into a sum of problems over Zi,? for i = 1 . . . N , where the proximal operator for each Zi,? is proxg (Zi,? ) = max 1, kT? (Zi,? )k?1 T? (Zi,? ). Here 2 T?3 (Zi,k ) = sign(Zi,k ) min(|Zi,k | ? ?3 , 0) is the element-wise shrinkage operator. P Because A has linear constraints of the form 0 ? p Ai,j [p] ? 1, the proximal operator does not have a closed form solution and is instead computed using dual-ascent [6]. As it can be decomposed across Ai,j for all i, j = 1 . . . K , consider the computation of proxg (?a) where a? represents one Ai,j . Defining ? as the dual variable, dual-ascent proceeds by iterating the following two steps until convergence: ( (i): a (n+1) = ? + ? (n) 1 ? ? a ? +? (n) 1 a kD?1 a?+?(n) 1k 0 ( (ii): ? (n+1) = ? if 2 ? (n) ? ?(n) 1> a(n+1)  + ?(n) 1> a(n+1) ? 1 (n) ?1 ? + ? (n) 1 > ? D a 2 otherwise if if 1> a(n+1) < 0 . 1> a(n+1) > 1 Here n indexes the dual-ascent inner loop and ?(n) is an appropriately chosen step-size. Note that D(?i,j ), the P ? P matrix approximation to ?t + ?i,j t is full rank and therefore invertible. And finally, the proximal operator for Ci,i for all i = 1 . . . N is Ci,i ? ?2 Ci,i / kCi,i k2 if kCi,i k2 > ?2 and 0 otherwise. 5 Remark: The hyper-parameters of the systems are multipliers ?0 . . . ?4 and threshold ?. The term ?0 , which is proportional to ?u /?v , implements a trade-off between innovations in the local and global processes. The parameter ?1 penalizes deviation of Ai,j from expected C?D dynamics, while ?2 , ?3 and ?4 control the sparsity of C, Z and B respectively. As explained earlier ? > 0, the lower bound on ?i,j , prohibits estimates of Ai,j with very high variance and thereby controls the spread / support of A. Hyper-parameter selection: Hyper-parameter values that minimize cross-validation error are obtained using grid-search. First, solutions over the full regularization path are computed with warmstarting. In our experience, for sufficiently small step sizes warm-starting leads to convergence in a few (< 5) iterations regardless of problem size. Moreover, as B is solved in a separate step, selection of ?4 is done independently of ?0 . . . ?3 . Experimentally, we have observed that an upper limit on ? = 1 and step-size of 0.1 is sufficient to explore the space of all solutions. The upper limit on ?3 is the smallest value for which any indicator vector Zi,? becomes all zero. Guidance about minimum and maximum values ?0 is obtained using the system identification technique of auto-correlation least squares. (0) Initialization: To cold start the BCD, ?i,j is initialized with the upper bound ? = 1 for all (0) (0) i, j = 1 . . . K . The variables x1 . . . xK are initialized as centroids of clusters obtained by K? means on the time-series data y1 . . . yN . Model order selection: Because of the sparsity penalties, the solutions are relatively insensitive to model order (P, Q). Therefore, these are typically set to high values and the effective model order is controlled through the sparsity hyper-parameters. 4 Results In this section we present an application to determining the connectivity structure of a medium from data of flow through it under a potential/pressure field. Such problems include flow of fluids through porous media under pressure gradients, or transmission of electric currents through resistive media due to potential gradients, and commonly arise in exploration geophysics in the study of sub-surface systems like aquifers, petroleum reservoirs, ore deposits and geologic bodies [16]. Specifically, these processes are defined by PDEs of the form: where ~c + ?? ? p = 0 and ? ? ~c = sq and ?y + ? (y~c) = sy , ?t ~ n ? ?~c|?? = 0, (5) (6) where y is the state variable (e.g. concentration or current), p is the pressure or potential field driving the flow, ~c is the resulting velocity field, ? is the permeability / permittivity, sq is the pressure/potential forcing term, sy is the rate of state variable injection into the system. The domain boundary is denoted by ?? and the outward normal by ~n. The initial condition for tracer is zero over the entire domain. In order to permit evaluation against ground truth, we used the permeability field in Fig. 1(a) based on a geologic model to study the flow of fluids through the earth subsurface under naturally and artificially induced pressure gradients. The data were generated by numerical simulation of eqn. (5) using a proprietary high-fidelity solver for T = 12500s with spatially varying pressure loadings between ?100 units and with random temporal fluctuations (SNR of 20dB). Random amounts of tracer varying between 0 and 5 units were injected and concentration measured at 1s intervals at the 275 sites marked in the image. A video of the simulation is provided as supplemental to the manuscript, and the data and model are available on request . These concentration profiles at the 275 locations are used as the time-series data y input to the multi-scale graphical model of eqn. (1). Estimation was done for K = 20, with multiple initializations and hyper-parameter selection as described above. The K-means step was initialized by distributing seed locations uniformly at random. The model orders P and Q were kept constant at 50 and 25 respectively. Labels and colors of the sites in Fig. 1(b) indicate the clusters identified by the K-means step for one initialization of the estimation procedure, while the estimated multi-scale graphical structure is shown in Figures 1(c)?(d). The global graphical structure (?Fig. 1(c)) correctly captures large-scale features in the ground truth. Furthermore, as seen in Fig. 1(d) the local graphical structure (given by the coefficients of B) are sparse and spatially compact. Importantly, the local graphs are spatially more contiguous than the initial K-means clusters and only approximately 40% of the labels are conserved between 6 2.5 10000 9000 2.0 8000 7000 1.5 6000 1.0 5000 4000 0.5 3000 2000 0.0 1000 0.5 0.5 (a) Ground truth 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 2.0 5 17 2 18 9 6 1 15 3 13 11 0 16 10 12 14 (b) Initialization after K-means 2.5 4 7 18 12 6 6 17 4 16 13 4 17 8 17 6 4 4 10 18 4 17 4 14 2 14 8 5 1715 16 7 18 7 4 1 7 12 7 15 14 16 18 18 13 13 0 15 15102 9 17 13 3 178 18 13 9 7 10 1717 17 16 15 17 7 7 7 18 4 1 13 7 7 1 18 2 13 9 4 1117 7 3 5 3 14 7 10 13 14 13 18 8 16 18 11 4 6 6 0 2 7 9 17 2 9 10 18 18 6 6 1 10 6 8 9 12 5 9 11 7 2 7 11 11 5 1 14 6 18 10 13 10 14 4 12 6 7 11 1314 13 3 3 9 1 16 3 17 3 9 2 3 13 16 12 8 16 8 10 3 14 7 11 18 3 10 8 1 3 13 18 1 15 9 13 13 11 7 3 5 2 4 17 9 16 17 9 16 9 7 10 0 11 10 16 2 10 0 0 10 18 2 17 8 7 16 9 16 10 4 18 10 10 12 18 2 16 14 9 10 14 14 14 7 11 10 8 0 17 12 7 2 14 9 14 1118 13 14 10 13 6 135 1010 7 4 12 10 10 5 6 10 18 14 14 1 12 14 13 8 8 8 8 8 5 7 18 10 6 8 17 17 6 17 17 4 4 4 17 17 17 17 44 4 4 13 17 4 4 1418 1818 1818 1418 7 18 4 18 18 5 7 7 17 17 18 18 18 9 7 7 77 7 7 17 17 4 18 1818 17 9 9 7 17 7 5 7 9 7 7 17 17 7 7 7 6 18 7 7 17 1 9 17 1 4 1818 6 6 6 1717 7 17 2 7 18 7 4 4 7 1 1 17 66 6 7 17 1 9 3 15 18 18 6 6 1 9 3 7 0 3 15 13 18 11 13 11 7 7 1 18 18 18 3 15 13 1 11 7 16 13 13 15 18 1716 1 3 3 16 13 15 1215 0 107 11 11 16 3 15 0 13 13 10 3 3 13 101010 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 11 11 11 16 16 3 13 13 13 10 16 14 11 16 16 0 13 0 10 11 16 12 4 13 15 0 0 0 11 16 16 10 1616 10 10 16 11 16 10 10 16 16 10 10 16 10 14 14 14 10 14 14 14 4 1010 14 14 14 1212 14 14 14 10 1010 1010 10 10 14 14 14 4 10 10 10 10 1 12 1214 8 88 8 8 88 8 18 88 8 8 (c) Global graphical structure (d) Local graphical structure 4 17 7 15 11 12 9 1 5 6 3 13 2 16 0 14 18 8 10 (e) Multi-scale structure with group LASSO (f) VAR graphical structure Figure 1: Fig.(a). Ground truth permeability (?) map overlaid with locations where the tracer is injected and measured. Fig.(b). Results of K?means initialization step. Colors and labels both indicate cluster assignments of the sites. Fig.(c). The global graphical structure for latent variable x. The nodes are positioned at the centroids of the corresponding local graphs. Fig.(d). The local graphical structure. Again, colors and labels both indicate cluster (i.e. global component) assignments of the sites. Fig.(e). The multi-scale graphical structure obtained when the Gaussian function prior is replaced by group LASSO on A . Fig.(f). The graphical structure estimated using non-hierarchal VAR with group LASSO. 7 the K-means initialization and the final solution. Furthermore, as shown in Supplemental Appendix F, the estimated graphical structure is fairly robust to initialization, especially in recovering the global graph structure. For all initializations, estimation from a cold-start converged in 65?90 BCD iterations, while warm-starts converged in < 5 iterations. Fig. 1(e) shows the results of estimating the multi-scale model when the penalty term of eqn. (3) for the C?D process prior is replaced by group LASSO. This result highlights the importance of the physically derived prior to reconstruct the graphical structure of the problem. Fig. 1(f) shows the graphical structure estimated using a non-hierarchal VAR model with group LASSO on the coefficients [11] and auto-regressive order P = 10. Firstly, this is a significantly larger model with P ? N 2 coefficients as compared O(P ?N )+O(Q?K 2 ) for Figure 2: Response functions at node in cmpnt 17 to the hierarchical model, and is therefore much impulse in cmpnt 1 of Fig. 1(c). Plotted are the impulse more expensive to compute. Furthermore, the responses for eqn. (5) along with 90% bands, the multiestimated graph is denser and harder to inter- scale model with C?D prior, the multi-scale model pret in the terms of the underlying problem, with group LASSO prior, and the non-hierarchical VAR with many long range edges intermixed with model with group LASSO prior. short range ones. In all cases, model hyperparameters were selected via 10-fold cross-validation Appendix G. In P P described in Supplemental ky[t]k , the non-hierarchal ky[t] ? y ? [t]k / terestingly, in terms of misfit (i.e. training ) error t t VAR model performs best (? %12.1 ? 4.4 relative error) while group LASSO and C?D penalized hierarchal models perform equivalently ( 18.3?5.7% and 17.6?6.2%) which can be attributed to the higher degrees of freedom available to non-hierarchical VAR. However, in terms of cross-validation (i.e. testing) error, the VAR model was the worst ( 94.5 ? 8.9%) followed by group LASSO hierarchal model (48.3 ? 3.7%). The model with the C?D prior performed the best, with a relative-error of 31.6 ? 4.5%. To characterize the dynamics estimated by the various approaches, we compared the impulse response functions (IRF) of the graphical models with that of the ground truth model (?eqn. (5)). The IRF for a node i is straightforward to generate for eqn. (5), while those for the graphical models are obtained by setting v0 [i] = 1 and v0 [j] = 0 for all j 6= i and vt = 0 for t > 0 and then running their equations forward in time. The responses at a node in global component 17 of Fig. 1(c) to an impulse at a node in global component 1 is shown in Fig. 2. As the IRF for eqn. (5) depends on the driving pressure field which fluctuates over time, the mean IRF along with 90% bands are shown. It can be observed that the multi-scale model with the C?D prior is much better at replicating the dynamical properties of the original system as compared to the model with group LASSO, while a non-hierarchical VAR model with group LASSO fails to capture any relevant dynamics. The results of comparing IRFs for other pairs of sites were qualitatively similar and therefore omitted. 5 Conclusion In this paper, we proposed a new approach that combines machine-learning / data-driven techniques with physically derived priors to reconstruct the connectivity / network structure of multi-scale spatio-temporal systems encountered in multiple fields such as exploration geophysics, atmospheric and ocean sciences . Simple yet computationally efficient algorithms for estimating the model were developed through a set of relaxations and regularization. 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Active Learning and Best-Response Dynamics Maria-Florina Balcan Carnegie Mellon ninamf@cs.cmu.edu Emma Cohen Georgia Tech ecohen@gatech.edu Christopher Berlind Georgia Tech cberlind@gatech.edu Kaushik Patnaik Georgia Tech kpatnaik3@gatech.edu Avrim Blum Carnegie Mellon avrim@cs.cmu.edu Le Song Georgia Tech lsong@cc.gatech.edu Abstract We examine an important setting for engineered systems in which low-power distributed sensors are each making highly noisy measurements of some unknown target function. A center wants to accurately learn this function by querying a small number of sensors, which ordinarily would be impossible due to the high noise rate. The question we address is whether local communication among sensors, together with natural best-response dynamics in an appropriately-defined game, can denoise the system without destroying the true signal and allow the center to succeed from only a small number of active queries. By using techniques from game theory and empirical processes, we prove positive (and negative) results on the denoising power of several natural dynamics. We then show experimentally that when combined with recent agnostic active learning algorithms, this process can achieve low error from very few queries, performing substantially better than active or passive learning without these denoising dynamics as well as passive learning with denoising. 1 Introduction Active learning has been the subject of significant theoretical and experimental study in machine learning, due to its potential to greatly reduce the amount of labeling effort needed to learn a given target function. However, to date, such work has focused only on the single-agent low-noise setting, with a learning algorithm obtaining labels from a single, nearly-perfect labeling entity. In large part this is because the effectiveness of active learning is known to quickly degrade as noise rates become high [5]. In this work, we introduce and analyze a novel setting where label information is held by highly-noisy low-power agents (such as sensors or micro-robots). We show how by first using simple game-theoretic dynamics among the agents we can quickly approximately denoise the system. This allows us to exploit the power of active learning (especially, recent advances in agnostic active learning), leading to efficient learning from only a small number of expensive queries. We specifically examine an important setting relevant to many engineered systems where we have a large number of low-power agents (e.g., sensors). These agents are each measuring some quantity, such as whether there is a high or low concentration of a dangerous chemical at their location, but they are assumed to be highly noisy. We also have a center, far away from the region being monitored, which has the ability to query these agents to determine their state. Viewing the agents as examples, and their states as noisy labels, the goal of the center is to learn a good approximation to the true target function (e.g., the true boundary of the high-concentration region for the chemical being monitored) from a small number of label queries. However, because of the high noise rate, learning this function directly would require a very large number of queries to be made (for noise 1 rate ?, one would necessarily require ?( (1/2??) 2 ) queries [4]). The question we address in this 1 paper is to what extent this difficulty can be alleviated by providing the agents the ability to engage in a small amount of local communication among themselves. What we show is that by using local communication and applying simple robust state-changing rules such as following natural game-theoretic dynamics, randomly distributed agents can modify their state in a way that greatly de-noises the system without destroying the true target boundary. This then nicely meshes with recent advances in agnostic active learning [1], allowing for the center to learn a good approximation to the target function from a small number of queries to the agents. In particular, in addition to proving theoretical guarantees on the denoising power of game-theoretic agent dynamics, we also show experimentally that a version of the agnostic active learning algorithm of [1], when combined with these dynamics, indeed is able to achieve low error from a small number of queries, outperforming active and passive learning algorithms without the best-response denoising step, as well as outperforming passive learning algorithms with denoising. More broadly, engineered systems such as sensor networks are especially well-suited to active learning because components may be able to communicate among themselves to reduce noise, and the designer has some control over how they are distributed and so assumptions such as a uniform or other ?nice? distribution on data are reasonable. We focus in this work primarily on the natural case of linear separator decision boundaries but many of our results extend directly to more general decision boundaries as well. 1.1 Related Work There has been significant work in active learning (e.g., see [11, 15]) including active learning in the presence of noise [9, 4, 1], yet it is known active learning can provide significant benefits in low noise scenarios only [5]. There has also been extensive work analyzing the performance of simple dynamics in consensus games [6, 8, 14, 13, 3, 2]. However this work has focused on getting to some equilibria or states of low social cost, while we are primarily interested in getting near a specific desired configuration, which as we show below is an approximate equilibrium. 2 Setup We assume we have a large number N of agents (e.g., sensors) distributed uniformly at random in a geometric region, which for concreteness we consider to be the unit ball in Rd . There is an unknown linear separator such that in the initial state, each sensor on the positive side of this separator is positive independently with probability ? 1??, and each on the negative side is negative independently with probability ? 1 ? ?. The quantity ? < 1/2 is the noise rate. 2.1 The basic sensor consensus game The sensors will denoise themselves by viewing themselves as players in a certain consensus game, and performing a simple dynamics in this game leading towards a specific -equilibrium. Specifically, the game is defined as follows, and is parameterized by a communication radius r, which should be thought of as small. Consider a graph where the sensors are vertices, and any two sensors within distance r are connected by an edge. Each sensor is in one of two states, positive or negative. The payoff a sensor receives is its correlation with its neighbors: the fraction of neighbors in the same state as it minus the fraction in the opposite state. So, if a sensor is in the same state as all its neighbors then its payoff is 1, if it is in the opposite state of all its neighbors then its payoff is ?1, and if sensors are in uniformly random states then the expected payoff is 0. Note that the states of highest social welfare (highest sum of utilities) are the all-positive and all-negative states, which are not what we are looking for. Instead, we want sensors to approach a different near-equilibrium state in which (most of) those on the positive side of the target separator are positive and (most of) those on the negative side of the target separator are negative. For this reason, we need to be particularly careful with the specific dynamics followed by the sensors. We begin with a simple lemma that for sufficiently large N , the target function (i.e., all sensors on the positive side of the target separator in the positive state and the rest in the negative state) is an -equilibrium, in that no sensor has more than  incentive to deviate. Lemma 1 For any , ? > 0, for sufficiently large N , with probability 1 ? ? the target function is an -equilibrium. P ROOF S KETCH : The target function fails to be an -equilibrium iff there exists a sensor for which more than an /2 fraction of its neighbors lie on the opposite side of the separator. Fix one sensor 2 x and consider the probability this occurs to x, over the random placement of the N ? 1 other sensors. Since the probability mass of the r-ball around x is at least (r/2)d (see discussion in proof ? of Theorem 2), so long as N ? 1 ? (2/r)d ? max[8, 42 ] ln( 2N ? ), with probability 1 ? 2N , point x will have mx ? 22 ln( 2N ? ) neighbors (by Chernoff bounds), each of which is at least as likely to be on x?s side of the target as on the other side. Thus, by Hoeffding bounds, the probability that more ? ? than a 21 + 2 fraction lie on the wrong side is at most 2N + 2N = N? . The result then follows by union bound over all N sensors. For a bit tighter argument and a concrete bound on N , see the proof of Theorem 2 which essentially has this as a special case. Lemma 1 motivates the use of best-response dynamics for denoising. Specifically, we consider a dynamics in which each sensor switches to the majority vote of all the other sensors in its neighborhood. We analyze below the denoising power of this dynamics under both synchronous and asynchronous update models. In supplementary material, we also consider more robust (though less practical) dynamics in which sensors perform more involved computations over their neighborhoods. 3 3.1 Analysis of the denoising dynamics Simultaneous-move dynamics We start by providing a positive theoretical guarantee for one-round simultaneous move dynamics. We will use the following standard concentration bound: PN Theorem 1 (Bernstein, 1924) Let X = i=1 Xi be a sum of independent random variables such   ?t2 that |Xi ? E[Xi ]| ? M for all i. Then for any t > 0, P[X ? E[X] > t] ? exp 2(Var[X]+M t/3) . Theorem 2 If N ? 2 1 (r/2)d ( 2 ??)2  ln 1 1 (r/2)d ( 2 ??)2 ?  + 1 then, with probability ? 1 ? ?, after one synchronous consensus update every sensor at distance ? r from the separator has the correct label. ? Note that since a band of width 2r about a linear separator has probability mass O(r? d), Theorem 2 implies that with high probability one synchronous update denoises all but an O(r d) fraction of the sensors. In fact, Theorem 2 does not require the separator to be linear, and so this conclusion applies to any decision boundary with similar surface area, such as an intersection of a constant number of halfspaces or a decision surface of bounded curvature. Proof (Theorem 2): Fix a point x in the sample at distance ? r from the separator and consider the ball of radius r centered at x. Let n+ be the number of correctly labeled points within the ball and n? be the number of incorrectly labeled points within the ball. Now consider the random variable ? = n? ? n+ . Denoising x can give it the incorrect label only if ? ? 0, so we would like to bound the probability that this happens. We can express ? as the sum of N ? 1 independent random variables ?i taking on value 0 for points outside the ball around x, 1 for incorrectly labeled points inside the ball, or ?1 for correct labels inside the ball. Let V be the measure of the ball centered at x (which may be less than rd if x is near the boundary of the unit ball). Then since the ball lies entirely on one side of the separator we have E[?i ] = (1 ? V ) ? 0 + V ? ? V (1 ? ?) = ?V (1 ? 2?). Since |?i | ? 1 we can take M = 2 in Bernstein?s theorem. We can also calculate that Var[?i ] ? E[?2i ] = V . Thus the probability that the point x is updated incorrectly is "N ?1 # "N ?1 # ?1 h NX i X X P ?i ? 0 = P ?i ? E ?i ? (N ? 1)V (1 ? 2?) i=1 i=1 i=1 ?(N ? 1)2 V 2 (1 ? 2?)2  ? exp 2 (N ? 1)V + 2(N ? 1)V (1 ? 2?)/3   ?(N ? 1)V (1 ? 2?)2 ? exp 2 + 4(1 ? 2?)/3  ? exp ?(N ? 1)V ( 21 ? ?)2  ? exp ?(N ? 1)(r/2)d ( 21 ? ?)2 , 3 ! where in the last step we lower bound the measure V of the ball around r by the measure of the sphere of radius r/2 inscribed in its intersection with the unit ball. Taking a union bound over all N points, it suffices to have e?(N ?1)(r/2) d 1 ( 2 ??)2 ? ?/N , or equivalently   1 1 N ?1? ln N + ln . ? (r/2)d ( 12 ? ?)2 Using the fact that ln x ? ?x ? ln ? ? 1 for all x, ? > 0 yields the claimed bound on N . We can now combine this result with the efficient agnostic active learning algorithm of [1]. In particular, applying the most recent analysis of [10, 16] of the algorithm of [1], we get the following bound on the number of queries needed to efficiently learn to accuracy 1 ?  with probability 1 ? ?. ? Corollary 1 There exists constant c1 > 0 such that for r ? /(c1 d), and N satisfying the bound of Theorem 2, if sensors are each initially in agreement with the target linear separator independently with probability at least 1??, then one round of best-response dynamics is sufficient such that the agnostic active learning algorithm of [1] will efficiently learn to error  using only O(d log 1/) queries to sensors. In Section 5 we implement this algorithm and show that experimentally it learns a low-error decision rule even in cases where the initial value of ? is quite high. 3.2 A negative result for arbitrary-order asynchronous dynamics We contrast the above positive result with a negative result for arbitrary-order asynchronous moves. In particular, we show that for any d ? 1, for sufficiently large N , with high probability there exists an update order that will cause all sensors to become negative. Theorem 3 For some absolute constant c > 0, if r ? 1/2 and sensors begin with noise rate ?, and   16 1 8 N? + ln , ln (cr)d ?2 (cr)d ?2 ? where ? = ?(?) = min(?, 21 ? ?), then with probability at least 1 ? ? there exists an ordering of the agents so that asynchronous updates in this order cause all points to have the same label. P ROOF S KETCH : Consider the case d = 1 and a target function x > 0. Each subinterval of [?1, 1] of width r has probability mass r/2, and let m = rN/2 be the expected number of points within such an interval. The given value of N is sufficiently large that with high probability, all such intervals in the initial state have both a positive count and a negative count that are within ? ?4 m of their expectations. This implies that if sensors update left-to-right, initially all sensors will (correctly) flip to negative, because their neighborhoods have more negative points than positive points. But then when the ?wave? of sensors reaches the positive region, they will continue (incorrectly) flipping to negative because the at least m(1 ? ?2 ) negative points in the left-half of their neighborhood will outweigh the at most (1 ? ? + ?4 )m positive points in the right-half of their neighborhood. For a detailed proof and the case of general d > 1, see supplementary material. 3.3 Random order dynamics While Theorem 3 shows that there exist bad orderings for asynchronous dynamics, we now show that we can get positive theoretical guarantees for random order best-response dynamics. The high level idea of the analysis is to partition the sensors into three sets: those that are within distance r of the target separator, those at distance between r and 2r from the target separator, and then all the rest. For those at distance < r from the separator we will make no guarantees: they might update incorrectly when it is their turn to move due to their neighbors on the other side of the target. Those at distance between r and 2r from the separator might also update incorrectly (due to ?corruption? from neighbors at distance < r from the separator that had earlier updated incorrectly) but we will show that with high probability this only happens in the last 1/4 of the ordering. I.e., within the first 3N/4 updates, with high probability there are no incorrect updates by sensors at distance between r and 2r from the target. Finally, we show that with high probability, those at 4 distance greater than 2r never update incorrectly. This last part of the argument follows from two facts: (1) with high probability all such points begin with more correctly-labeled neighbors than incorrectly-labeled neighbors (so they will update correctly so long as no neighbors have previously updated incorrectly), and (2) after 3N/4 total updates have been made, with high probability more than half of the neighbors of each such point have already (correctly) updated, and so those points will now update correctly no matter what their remaining neighbors ?do. Our argument for the sensors ? at distance in [r, 2r] requires r to be small compared to ( 21 ? ?)/ d, and the final error is O(r d), ? so the conclusion is we have a total error less than  for r < c min[ 12 ? ?, ]/ d for some absolute constant c. We begin with a key lemma. For any given sensor, define its inside-neighbors to be its neighbors in the direction of the target separator and its outside-neighbors to be its neighbors away from the target separator. Also, let ? = 1/2 ? ?. Lemma 2 For any c1 , c2 > 0 there exist c3 , c4 > 0 such that for r ? c4 (r/2)d ? 2 ln( rd1?? ), ? ? c3 d and N ? with probability 1 ? ?, each sensor x at distance between r and 2r from the target separator has mx ? ?c12 ln(4N/?) neighbors, and furthermore the number of inside-neighbors of x that move before x is within ? c?2 mx of the number of outside neighbors of x that move before x. Proof: First, the guarantee on mx follows immediately from the fact that the probability mass of the ball around each sensor x is at least (r/2)d , so for appropriate c4 the expected value of mx is at 1 least max[8, 2c ? 2 ] ln(4N/?), and then applying Hoeffding bounds [12, 7] and the union bound. Now, fix some sensor x and let us first assume the ball of radius r about x does not cross the unit sphere. Because this is random-order dynamics, if x is the kth sensor to move within its neighborhood, the k ? 1 sensors that move earlier are each equally likely to be an inside-neighbor or an outsideneighbor. So the question reduces to: if we flip k ?1 ? mx fair coins, what is the probability that the number of heads differs from the number of tails by more than c?2 mx . For mx ? 2( c?2 )2 ln(4N/?), this is at most ?/(2N ) by Hoeffding bounds. Now, if the ball of radius r about x does cross the unit sphere, then a random neighbor is slightly more likely to be an inside-neighbor than an outsideneighbor. However, because ? x has distance at most 2r from the target separator, this difference in probabilities is only O(r d), which is at most 2c?2 for appropriate choice of constant c3 .1 So, the result follows by applying Hoeffding bounds to the 2c?2 gap that remains. c4 1 Theorem 4 For some absolute constants c3 , c4 , for r ? c ??d and N ? (r/2) d ? 2 ln( r d ?? ), in 3 random order dynamics, with probability 1 ? ? all sensors at distance greater than 2r from the target separator update correctly. P ROOF S KETCH : We begin by using Lemma 2 to argue that with high probability, no points at distance between r and 2r from the separator update incorrectly within the first 3N/4 updates (which immediately implies that all points at distance greater than 2r update correctly as well, since by Theorem 2, with high probability they begin with more correctly-labeled neighbors than incorrectlylabeled neighbors and their neighborhood only becomes more favorable). In particular, for any given such point, the concern is that some of its inside-neighbors may have previously updated incorrectly. However, we use two facts: (1) by Lemma 2, we can set c4 so that with high probability the total contribution of neighbors that have already updated is at most ?8 mx in the incorrect direction (since the outside-neighbors will have updated correctly, by induction), and (2) by standard concentration 1 We can analyze the difference in probabilities as follows. First, in the worst case, x is at distance exactly 2r from the separator, and ? is right on the edge of the unit ball. So we can define our coordinate system to view x as being at location (2r, 1 ? 4r2 , 0, . . . , 0). Now, consider adding to x a random offset y in the r-ball. We want to look at the probability that x + y has Euclidean length less than 1 conditioned on the first coordinate of y being negative compared to this probability conditioned on the first coordinate of y being positive. Notice that because the second coordinate of x is nearly 1, if y2 ? ?cr2 for appropriate c then x + y has length less than 1 no matter what the other coordinates of y are (worst-case is if y1 = r but even that adds at most O(r2 ) to the squared-length). On the other hand, if y2 ? cr2 then x + y has length greater than 1 also no matter what the other coordinates of y are. So, it is only ? in between that the value of y1 matters. But notice that the distribution over y2 has maximum density O( d/r). So, with probability nearly 1/2, the point is inside the unit ball ? for sure, with ? probability nearly 1/2 the point is outside the unit ball for sure, and only with probability O(r2 d/r) = O(r d) does the y1 coordinate make any difference at all. 5 bk wk+1 wk rk + + + ? + ?+ + + + ? + ? + ? ? ?? +? ? Figure 1: The margin-based active learning algorithm after iteration k. The algorithm samples points within margin bk of the current weight vector wk and then minimizes the hinge loss over this sample subject to the constraint that the new weight vector wk+1 is within distance rk from wk . inequalities [12, 7], with high probability at least 18 mx neighbors of x have not yet updated. These ? 1 8 mx un-updated neighbors together have in? expectation a 4 mx bias in the correct direction, and so with high probability have greater than a 8 mx correct bias for sufficiently large mx (sufficiently large c1 in Lemma 2). So, with high probability this overcomes the at most ?8 mx incorrect bias of neighbors that have already updated, and so the points will indeed update correctly as desired. Finally, we consider the points of distance ? 2r. Within the first 43 N updates, with high probability they will all update correctly as argued above. Now consider time 34 N . For each such point, in expectation 43 of its neighbors have already updated, and with high probability, for all such points the fraction of neighbors that have updated is more than half. Since all neighbors have updated correctly so far, this means these points will have more correct neighbors than incorrect neighbors no matter what the remaining neighbors do, and so they will update correctly themselves. 4 Query efficient polynomial time active learning algorithm Recently, Awasthi et al. [1] gave the first polynomial-time active learning algorithm able to learn linear separators to error  over the uniform distribution in the presence of agnostic noise of rate O(). Moreover, the algorithm does so with optimal query complexity of O(d log 1/). This algorithm is ideally suited to our setting because (a) the sensors are uniformly distributed, and (b) the result of best response dynamics is noise that is low but potentially highly coupled (hence, fitting the low-noise agnostic model). In our experiments (Section 5) we show that indeed this algorithm when combined with best-response dynamics achieves low error from a small number of queries, outperforming active and passive learning algorithms without the best-response denoising step, as well as outperforming passive learning algorithms with denoising. Here, we briefly describe the algorithm of [1] and the intuition behind it. At high level, the algorithm proceeds through several rounds, in each performing the following operations (see also Figure 1): Instance space localization: Request labels for a random sample of points within a band of width bk = O(2?k ) around the boundary of the previous hypothesis wk . Concept space localization: Solve for hypothesis vector wk+1 by minimizing hinge loss subject to the constraint that wk+1 lie within a radius rk from wk ; that is, ||wk+1 ? wk || ? rk . [1, 10, 16] show that by setting the parameters appropriately (in particular, bk = ?(1/2k ) and rk = ?(1/2k )), the algorithm will achieve error  using only k = O(log 1/) rounds, with O(d) label requests per round. In particular, a key idea of their analysis is to decompose, in round k, the error of a candidate classifier w as its error outside margin bk of the current separator plus its error inside margin bk , and to prove that for these parameters, a small constant error inside the margin suffices to reduce overall error by a constant factor. A second key part is that by constraining the search for wk+1 to vectors within a ball of radius rk about wk , they show that hinge-loss acts as a sufficiently faithful proxy for 0-1 loss. 6 5 Experiments In our experiments we seek to determine whether our overall algorithm of best-response dynamics combined with active learning is effective at denoising the sensors and learning the target boundary. The experiments were run on synthetic data, and compared active and passive learning (with Support Vector Machines) both pre- and post-denoising. Synthetic data. The N sensor locations were generated from a uniform distribution over the unit ball in R2 , and the target boundary was fixed as a randomly chosen linear separator through the origin. To simulate noisy scenarios, we corrupted the true sensor labels using two different methods: 1) flipping the sensor labels with probability ? and 2) flipping randomly chosen sensor labels and all their neighbors, to create pockets of noise, with ? fraction of total sensors corrupted. Denoising via best-response dynamics. In the denoising phase of the experiments, the sensors applied the basic majority consensus dynamic. That is, each sensor was made to update its label to the majority label of its neighbors within distance r from its location2 . We used radius values r ? {0.025, 0.05, 0.1, 0.2}. Updates of sensor labels were carried out both through simultaneous updates to all the sensors in each iteration (synchronous updates) and updating one randomly chosen sensor in each iteration (asynchronous updates). Learning the target boundary. After denoising the dataset, we employ the agnostic active learning algorithm of Awasthi et al. [1] described in Section 4 to decide which sensors to query and obtain a linear separator. We also extend the algorithm to the case of non-linear boundaries by implementing a kernelized version (see supplementary material for more details). Here we compare the resulting error (as measured against the ?true? labels given by the target separator) against that obtained by training a SVM on a randomly selected labeled sample of the sensors of the same size as the number of queries used by the active algorithm. We also compare these post-denoising errors with those of the active algorithm and SVM trained on the sensors before denoising. For the active algorithm, we used parameters asymptotically matching those given in Awasthi et al [1] for a uniform distribution. For SVM, we chose for each experiment the regularization parameter that resulted in the best performance. 5.1 Results Here we report the results for N = 10000 and r = 0.1. Results for experiments with other values of the parameters are included in the supplementary material. Every value reported is an average over 50 independent trials. Denoising effectiveness. Figure 2 (left side) shows, for various initial noise rates, the fraction of sensors with incorrect labels after applying 100 rounds of synchronous denoising updates. In the random noise case, the final noise rate remains very small even for relatively high levels of initial noise. Pockets of noise appear to be more difficult to denoise. In this case, the final noise rate increases with initial noise rate, but is still nearly always smaller than the initial level of noise. Synchronous vs. asynchronous updates. To compare synchronous and asynchronous updates we plot the noise rate as a function of the number of rounds of updates in Figure 2 (right side). As our theory suggests, both simultaneous updates and asynchronous updates can quickly converge to a low level of noise in the random noise setting (in fact, convergence happens quickly nearly every time). Neither update strategy achieves the same level of performance in the case of pockets of noise. Generalization error: pre- vs. post-denoising and active vs. passive. We trained both active and passive learning algorithms on both pre- and post-denoised sensors at various label budgets, and measured the resulting generalization error (determined by the angle between the target and the learned separator). The results of these experiments are shown in Figure 3. Notice that, as expected, denoising helps significantly and on the denoised dataset the active algorithm achieves better generalization error than support vector machines at low label budgets. For example, at a 2 We also tested distance-weighted majority and randomized majority dynamics and experimentally observed similar results to those of the basic majority dynamic. 7 45 50 Random Noise Pockets of Noise 40 Random Noise - Asynchronous updates Pockets of Noise - Asynchronous updates Random Noise - Synchronous updates Pockets of Noise - Synchronous updates 40 35 Final Noise(%) Final Noise(%) 30 25 20 30 20 15 10 10 5 0 0 10 20 30 40 0 0 50 1 10 100 1000 Number of Rounds Initial Noise(%) Figure 2: Initial vs. final noise rates for synchronous updates (left) and comparison of synchronous and asynchronous dynamics (right). One synchronous round updates every sensor once simultaneously, while one asynchronous round consists of N random updates. label budget of 30, active learning achieves generalization error approximately 33% lower than the generalization error of SVMs. Similar observations were also obtained upon comparing the kernelized versions of the two algorithms (see supplementary material). 0.5 0.20 Pre Denoising - Our Method Pre Denoising - SVM Post Denoising - Our Method Post Denoising - SVM 0.15 Generalization Error Generalization Error 0.4 Pre Denoising - Our Method Pre Denoising - SVM Post Denoising - Our Method Post Denoising - SVM 0.3 0.2 0.10 0.05 0.1 0.0 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0.00 30 100 Label Budget 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Label Budget Figure 3: Generalization error of the two learning methods with random noise at rate ? = 0.35 (left) and pockets of noise at rate ? = 0.15 (right). 6 Discussion We demonstrate through theoretical analysis as well as experiments on synthetic data that local bestresponse dynamics can significantly denoise a highly-noisy sensor network without destroying the underlying signal, allowing for fast learning from a small number of label queries. Our positive theoretical guarantees apply both to synchronous and random-order asynchronous updates, which is borne out in the experiments as well. Our negative result in Section 3.2 for adversarial-order dynamics, in which a left-to-right update order can cause the entire system to switch to a single label, raises the question whether an alternative dynamics could be robust to adversarial update orders. In the supplementary material we present an alternative dynamics that we prove is indeed robust to arbitrary update orders, but this dynamics is less practical because it requires substantially more computational power on the part of the sensors. It is an interesting question whether such general robustness can be achieved by a simple practicall update rule. Another open question is whether an alternative dynamics can achieve better denoising in the region near the decision boundary. Acknowledgments This work was supported in part by NSF grants CCF-0953192, CCF-1101283, CCF-1116892, IIS1065251, IIS1116886, NSF/NIH BIGDATA 1R01GM108341, NSF CAREER IIS1350983, AFOSR grant FA9550-09-1-0538, ONR grant N00014-09-1-0751, and Raytheon Faculty Fellowship. 8 References [1] P. Awasthi, M. F. Balcan, and P. Long. The power of localization for efficiently learning linear separators with noise. In STOC, 2014. [2] M.-F. Balcan, A. Blum, and Y. Mansour. The price of uncertainty. In EC, 2009. [3] M.-F. Balcan, A. Blum, and Y. Mansour. Circumventing the price of anarchy: Leading dynamics to good behavior. SICOMP, 2014. [4] M. F. Balcan and V. Feldman. Statistical active learning algorithms. In NIPS, 2013. [5] A. Beygelzimer, S. Dasgupta, and J. Langford. Importance weighted active learning. In ICML, 2009. [6] L. Blume. The statistical mechanics of strategic interaction. Games and Economic Behavior, 5:387?424, 1993. [7] S. Boucheron, G. Lugosi, and P. Massart. Concentration Inequalities: A Nonasymptotic Theory of Independence. OUP Oxford, 2013. [8] G. Ellison. Learning, local interaction, and coordination. Econometrica, 61:1047?1071, 1993. [9] Daniel Golovin, Andreas Krause, and Debajyoti Ray. Near-optimal bayesian active learning with noisy observations. In NIPS, 2010. [10] S. Hanneke. Personal communication. 2013. [11] S. Hanneke. A statistical theory of active learning. Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, pages 1?212, 2013. [12] W. Hoeffding. Probability inequalities for sums of bounded random variables. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 58(301):13?30, March 1963. [13] D. Kempe, J. Kleinberg, and E. Tardos. Maximizing the spread of influence through a social network. In Proceedings of the Ninth ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, KDD ?03, pages 137?146. ACM, 2003. [14] S. Morris. Contagion. The Review of Economic Studies, 67(1):57?78, 2000. [15] B. Settles. Active Learning. Synthesis Lectures on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Morgan & Claypool Publishers, 2012. [16] L. Yang. Mathematical Theories of Interaction with Oracles. PhD thesis, CMU Dept. of Machine Learning, 2013. 9
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Provable Tensor Factorization with Missing Data Prateek Jain Microsoft Research Bangalore, India prajain@microsoft.com Sewoong Oh Dept. of Industrial and Enterprise Systems Engineering University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Urbana, IL 61801 swoh@illinois.edu Abstract We study the problem of low-rank tensor factorization in the presence of missing data. We ask the following question: how many sampled entries do we need, to efficiently and exactly reconstruct a tensor with a low-rank orthogonal decomposition? We propose a novel alternating minimization based method which iteratively refines estimates of the singular vectors. We show that under certain standard assumptions, our method can recover a three-mode n ? n ? n dimensional rank-r tensor exactly from O(n3/2 r5 log4 n) randomly sampled entries. In the process of proving this result, we solve two challenging sub-problems for tensors with missing data. First, in analyzing the initialization step, we prove a generalization of a celebrated result by Szemer?edie et al. on the spectrum of random graphs. We show that this initialization step alone is sufficient to achieve the root mean squared error on the parameters bounded by C(r2 n3/2 (log n)4 /|?|) from |?| observed entries for some constant C independent of n and r. Next, we prove global convergence of alternating minimization with this good initialization. Simulations suggest that the dependence of the sample size on the dimensionality n is indeed tight. 1 Introduction Several real-world applications routinely encounter multi-way data with structure which can be modeled as low-rank tensors. Moreover, in several settings, many of the entries of the tensor are missing, which motivated us to study the problem of low-rank tensor factorization with missing entries. For example, when recording electrical activities of the brain, the electroencephalography (EEG) signal can be represented as a three-way array (temporal, spectral, and spatial axis). Oftentimes signals are lost due to mechanical failure or loose connection. Given numerous motivating applications, several methods have been proposed for this tensor completion problem. However, with the exception of 2-way tensors (i.e., matrices), the existing methods for higher-order tensors do not have theoretical guarantees and typically suffer from the curse of local minima. In general, finding a factorization of a tensor is an NP-hard problem, even when all the entries are available. However, it was recently discovered that by restricting attention to a sub-class of tensors such as low-CP rank orthogonal tensors [1] or low-CP rank incoherent1 tensors [2], one can efficiently find a provably approximate factorization. In particular, exact recovery of the factorization is possible for a tensor with a low-rank orthogonal CP decomposition [1]. We ask the question of recovering such a CP-decomposition when only a small number of entries are revealed, and show that exact reconstruction is possible even when we do not observe any entry in most of the fibers. Problem formulation. We study tensors that have an orthonormal CANDECOMP/PARAFAC (CP) tensor decomposition with a small number of components. Moreover, for simplicity of notation and 1 The notion of incoherence we assume in (2) can be thought of as incoherence between the fibers and the standard basis vectors. 1 exposition, we only consider symmetric third order tensors. We would like to stress that our techniques generalizes easily to handle non-symmetric tensors as well as higher-order tensors. Formally, we assume that the true tensor T has the the following form: T r X = `=1 ?` (u` ? u` ? u` ) ? Rn?n?n , (1) with r  n, u` ? Rn with ku` k = 1, and u` ?s are orthogonal to each other. We let U ? Rn?r be a tall-orthogonal matrix where u` ?s is the `-th column of U and Ui ? Uj for i 6= j. We use ? P to denote the standard outer product such that the (i, j, k)-th element of T is given by: Tijk = a ?a Uia Uja Uka . We further assume that the ui ?s are unstructured, which is formalized by the notion of incoherence commonly assumed in matrix completion problems. The incoherence of a symmetric tensor with orthogonal decomposition is ? ?(T ) ? max n |Ui` | , (2) i?[n],`?[r] where [n] = {1, . . . , n} is the set of the first n integers. Tensor completion becomes increasingly difficult for tensors with larger ?(T ), because the ?mass? of the tensor can be concentrated on a few entries that might not be revealed. Out of n3 entries of T , a subset ? ? [n] ? [n] ? [n] is revealed. We use P? (?) to denote the projection of a matrix onto the revealed set such that  Tijk if (i, j, k) ? ? , P? (T )ijk = 0 otherwise . We want to recover T exactly using the given entries (P? (T )). We assume that each (i, j, k) for all i ? j ? k is included in ? with a fixed probability p (since T is symmetric, we include all permutations of (i, j, k)). This is equivalent to fixing the total number of samples |?| and selecting ?  n3 uniformly at random over all |?| choices. The goal is to ensure exact recovery with high probability and for |?| that is sub-linear in the number of entries (n3 ). n?m Notations. For a tensor T ? Rn?n?n , we define as P a linear mapping using U ? R T [U, U, U ] ? Rm?m?m such that T [U, U, U ]ijk = a,b,c Tabc Uai Ubj Uck . The spectral norm of a tensor is kT k2 = maxkxk=1 T [x, x, x]. The Hilbert-Schmidt norm (Frobenius norm for matrices) of P P 2 1/2 a tensor is kT kF = ( i,j,k Tijk ) . The Euclidean norm of a vector is kuk2 = ( i u2i )1/2 . We use C, C 0 to denote any positive numerical constants and the actual value might change from line to line. 1.1 Algorithm Ideally, one would like to minimize the rank of a tensor that explains all the sampled entries. rank(Tb) minimize Tb (3) Tijk = Tbijk for all (i, j, k) ? ? . subject to However, even computing the rank of a tensor is NP-hard in general, where the rank is defined as the minimum r for which CP-decomposition exists [3]. Instead, we fix the rank of Tb by explicitly P modeling Tb as Tb = ?` (u` ? u` ? u` ), and solve the following problem: `?[r]  2 minimize P? (T ) ? P? Tb Tb,rank(Tb)=r F = X  2 minimize P? (T ) ? P? ?` (u` ? u` ? u` ) (4) {?` ,u` }`?[r] `?[r] F Recently, [4, 5] showed that an alternating minimization technique can recover a matrix with missing entries exactly. We generalize and modify the algorithm for the case of higher order tensors and study it rigorously for tensor completion. However, due to special structure in higher-order tensors, our algorithm as well as analysis is significantly different than the matrix case (see Section 2.2 for more details). To perform the minimization, we repeat the outer-loop getting refined estimates for all r components. In the inner-loop, we loop over each component and solve for uq while fixing the others {u` }`6=q . 2 P More precisely, we set Tb = ut+1 ? uq ? uq + `6=q ?` u` ? u` ? u` in (4) and then find optimal q ut+1 by minimizing the least squares objective given by (4). That is, each inner iteration is a simple q least squares problem over the known entries, hence can be implemented efficiently and is also embarrassingly parallel. Algorithm 1 Alternating Minimization for Tensor Completion 1: Input: P? (T ), ?, r, ? , ? 2: Initialize with [(u01 , ?1 ), (u02 , , ?2 ), . . . , (u0r , ?r )] = RT P M (P? (T ), r) (RTPM of [1]) 3: [u1 , u2 , . . . , ur ] = Threshold([u01 , u02 , . . . , u0r ], ?) (Clipping scheme of [4]) 4: for all t = 1, 2, . . . , ? do 5: /*OUTER LOOP */ 6: for all q = 1, 2, . . . , r do 7: /*INNER LOOP*/ P ? t+1 8: u = arg minut+1 kP? (T ? ut+1 ? uq ? uq ? `6=q ?` ? u` ? u` ? u` )k2F q 1 q 9: 10: 11: 12: 13: 14: 15: ?qt+1 = ku?q t+1 k2 ? t+1 ut+1 =u ut+1 q q k2 1 /k? end for t+1 t+1 [u1 , u2 , . . . , ur ] ? [ut+1 1 , u2 , . . . , ur ] t+1 t+1 t+1 [?1 , ?2 , . . . , ?r ] ? [?1 , ?2 , . . . , ?r ] end for P Output: Tb = q?[r] ?q (uq ? uq ? uq ) The main novelty in our approach is that we refine all r components iteratively as opposed to the sequential deflation technique used by the existing methods for tensor decomposition (for fully observed tensors). In sequential deflation methods, components {u1 , u2 , . . . , ur } are estimated sequentially and estimate of say u2 is not used to refine u1 . In contrast, our algorithm iterates over all r estimates in the inner loop, so as to obtain refined estimates for all ui ?s in the outer loop. We believe that such a technique could be applied to improve the error bounds of (fully observed) tensor decomposition methods as well. As our method is directly solving a non-convex problem, it can easily get stuck in local minima. The key reason our approach can overcome the curse of local minima is that we start with a provably good initial point which is only a small distance away from the optima. To obtain such an initial estimate, we compute a low-rank approximation of the observed tensor using Robust Tensor Power Method (RTPM) [1]. RTPM is a generalization of the widely used power method for computing leading singular vectors of a matrix and can approximate the largest singular vectors up to the spectral norm of the ?error? tensor. Hence, the challenge is to show that the error tensor has small spectral norm (see Theorem 2.1). We perform a thresholding step similar to [4] (see Lemma A.4) after the RTPM step to ensure that the estimates we get are incoherent. Our analysis requires the sampled entries ? to be independent of the current iterates ui , ?i, which in general is not possible as ui ?s are computed using ?. To avoid this issue, we divide the given samples (?) into equal r ? ? parts randomly where ? is the number of outer loops (see Algorithm 1). 1.2 Main Result Theorem 1.1. Consider any rank-r symmetric tensor T ? Rn?n?n with an orthogonal CP decomposition in (1) satisfying ?-incoherence as defined in (2). For any positive ? > 0, there exists a positive numerical constant C such that if entries are revealed with probability p ? C 4 ?6 r5 ?max (log n)4 log(rkT kF /?) , 4 ?min n3/2 where ?max , ?max` ?` and ?min , min` ?` , then the following holds with probability at least 1 ? n?5 log2 (4 r kT kF /?): ? the problem (3) has a unique optimal solution; and ? ? log2 ( 4 r kT kF ? ) iterations of Algorithm 1 produces an estimate Tb s.t. kT ? TbkF ? ? . 3 The above result can be generalized to k-mode tensors in a straightforward manner, where exact re2k?2 ?6 r 5 ?max (log n)4 log(rkT kF /?) covery is guaranteed if, p ? C . However, for simplicity of notations 4 nk/2 ?min and to emphasize key points of our proof, we only focus on 3-mode tensors in Section 2.3. We provide a proof of Theorem 1.1 in Section 2. For an incoherent, well-conditioned, and low-rank tensor with ? = O(1) and ?min = ?(?max ), alternating minimization requires O(r5 n3/2 (log n)4 ) samples to get within an arbitrarily small normalized error. This is a vanishing fraction of the total number of entries n3 . Each step in the alternating minimization requires O(r|?|) operations, hence the alternating minimization only requires O(r|?| log(rkT kF /?)) operations. The initialization step requires O(rc |?|) operations for some positive numerical constant c as proved in [1]. When r  n, the computational complexity scales linearly in the sample size up to a logarithmic factor. A fiber in a third order tensor is an n-dimensional vector defined by fixing two of the axes and indexing over remaining one axis. The above theorem implies that among n2 fibers of the form {T [I, ej , ek ]}j,k?[n] , exact recovery is possible even if only O(n3/2 (log n)4 ) fibers have non-zero samples, that is most of the fibers are not sampled at all. This should be compared to the matrix completion setting where all fibers are required to have at least one sample. However, unlike matrices, the fundamental limit of higher order tensor completion is not known. Building on the percolation of Erd?os-Ren?yi graphs and the coupon-collectors problem, it is known that matrix completion has multiple rank-r solutions when the sample size is less than C?rn log n [6], hence exact recovery is impossible. But, such arguments do not generalize directly to higher order; see Section 2.5 for more discussion. Interestingly, simulations in Section 1.3 suggests that ? for r = O( n), the sample complexity scales as (r1/2 n3/2 log n). That is, assuming the sample complexity provided by simulations is correct, our result achieves optimal dependence on n (up to log factors). However, the dependency on r is sub-optimal (see Section 2.5 for a discussion). 1.3 Empirical Results Theorem 1.1 guarantees exact recovery when p ? Cr5 (log n)4 /n3/2 . Numerical experiments show that the average recovery rate converges to a universal curve over ?, where p? = ?r1/2 ln n/((1 ? ?)n3/2 ) in Figure 1. Our bound is tight in its dependency n up to a poly-logarithmic factor, but is loose in its dependency in the rank r. Further, it is able to recover the original matrix exactly even when the factors are not strictly orthogonal. We generate orthogonal matrices U = [u1 , . . . , ur ] ? Rn?r at random with n = 50 and Puniformly r r = 3 unless specified otherwise. For a rank-r tensor T = i=1 ui ? ui ? ui , we randomly reveal each entry with probability p. A tensor is exactly recovered if the normalized root mean squared error, RMSE = kT ? T?kF /kT kF , is less than 10?72 . Varying n and r, we plot the recovery rate averaged over 100 instances as a function of ?. The degrees of freedom in representing a symmetric tensor is ?(rn). Hence for ? large, r we need number of samples scaling as r. Hence, the current dependence of p? = O( r) can only hold for r = O(n). For not strictly orthogonal factors, the algorithm is robust. A more robust approach for finding an initial guess could improve the performance significantly, especially for non-orthogonal tensors. 1 1 1 n=50 n=100 n=200 r=2 r=3 r=4 r=5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 ? 5 6 7 8 9 ? ? ? 0.8 ?=0 = 0.2 = 0.3 = 0.4 0 0 1 2 3 4 ? 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ? Figure 1: Average recovery rate converges to a universal curve over ? when p = ?r1/2 ln n/((1 ? ? ?)n3/2 ), where ? = maxi6=j?[r] hui , uj i and r = O( n). 2 A MATLAB implementation of Algorithm 1 used to run the experiments is available at http://web.engr.illinois.edu/?swoh/software/optspace . 4 1.4 Related Work Tensor decomposition and completion: The CP model proposed in [7, 8, 9] is a multidimensional generalization of singular value decomposition of matrices. Computing the CP decomposition involves two steps: first apply a whitening operator to the tensor to get a lower dimensional tensor with orthogonal CP decomposition. Such a whitening operator only exists when r ? n. Then, apply known power-method techniques for exact orthogonal CP decomposition [1]. We use this algorithm as well as the analysis for the initial step of our algorithm. For motivation and examples of orthogonal CP models we refer to [10, 1]. Recently, many heuristics for tensor completion have been developed such as the weighted least squares [11], Gauss-Newton [12], alternating least-squares [13, 14], trace norm minimization [15]. However, no theoretical guarantees are known for these approaches. In a different context, [16] shows that minimizing a weighted trace norm of flattened tensor provides exact recovery using O(rn3/2 ) samples, but each observation needs to be a dense random projection of the tensor as opposed to observing just a single entry, which is the case in the tensor completion problem. In [17], an adaptive sampling method with an estimation algorithm was proposed that provably recovers a kmode rank-r tensor with O(nrk?0.5 ?k?1 k log(r)). However, the estimation algorithm as wells the analysis crucially relies on adaptive sampling and does not generalize to random samples. Relation to matrix completion: Matrix completion has been studied extensively in the last decade since the seminal paper [18]. Since then, provable approaches have been developed, such as, nuclear norm minimization [18, 19], OptSpace [20, 21], and Alternating Minimization [4]. However, several aspects of tensor factorization makes it challenging to adopt matrix completion approaches directly. First, there is no natural convex surrogate of the tensor rank function and developing such a function is in fact a topic of active research [22, 16]. Next, even when all entries are revealed, tensor decomposition methods such as simultaneous power iteration are known to get stuck at local extrema, making it challenging to apply matrix decomposition methods directly. Third, for the initialization step, the best low-rank approximation of a matrix is unique and finding it is trivial. However, for tensors, finding the best low-rank approximation is notoriously difficult. On the other hand, some aspects of tensor decomposition makes it possible to prove stronger results. Matrix completion aims to recover the underlying matrix only, since the factors are not uniquely defined due to invariance under rotations. However, for orthogonal CP models, we can hope to recover the individual singular vectors ui ?s exactly. In fact, Theorem 1.1 shows that our method indeed recovers the individual singular vectors exactly. Spectral analysis of tensors and hypergraphs: Theorem 2.1 and Lemma 2.2 should be compared to copious line of work on spectral analysis of matrices [23, 20], with an important motivation of developing fast algorithms for low-rank matrix approximations. We prove an analogous guarantee for higher order tensors and provide a fast algorithm for low-rank tensor approximation. Theorem 2.1 is also a generalization of the celebrated result of Friedman-Kahn-Szemer?edi [24] and FeigeOfek [25] on the second eigenvalue of random graphs. We provide an upper bound the largest second eigenvalue of a random hypergraph, where each edge includes three nodes and each of the  n 3 edges is selected with probability p. 2 Analysis of the Alternating Minimization Algorithm In this section, we provide a proof of Theorem 1.1 and the proof sketches of the required main technical theorems. We refer to the Appendix for formal proofs of the technical theorems and lemmas. There are two key components: a) the analysis of the initialization step (Section 2.1); and b) the convergence of alternating minimization given a sufficiently accurate initialization (Section 2.2). We use these two analyses to prove Theorem 1.1 in Section 2.3. 2.1 Initialization Analysis We first show that (1/p)P? (T ) is close to T in spectral norm, and use it bound the error of robust power method applied directly to P? (T ). The normalization by (1/p) compensates for the fact that many entries are missing. For a proof of this theorem, we refer to Appendix A. 5 Theorem 2.1 (Initialization). For p = ?/n3/2 satisfying ? ? log n, there exists a positive constant C > 0 such that, with probability at least 1 ? n?5 , 1 kP? (T ) ? p T k2 Tmax n3/2 p ? C (log n)2 ? , ? (5) where Tmax ? maxi,j,k Tijk , and kT k2 ? maxkuk=1 T [u, u, u] is the spectral norm. Notice that Tmax is the maximum entry in the tensor T and the factor 1/(Tmax n3/2 p) corresponds to normalization with the worst case spectral norm of p T , since kpT k2 ? Tmax n3/2 p and the maximum is achieved by T = Tmax (1 ? 1 ? 1). The following theorem guarantees that O(n3/2 (log n)2 ) samples are sufficient to ensure that we get arbitrarily small error. A formal proof is provided in the Appendix. Together with an analysis of robust tensor power method [1, Theorem 5.1], the next error bound follows from directly substituting (5) and using the fact that for incoherent tensors Tmax ? ?max ?(T )3 r/n3/2 . Notice that the estimates can be computed efficiently, requiring only O(log r + log log ?) iterations, each iteration requiring O(?n3/2 ) operations. This is close to the time required to read the |?| ' ?n3/2 samples. One caveat is that we need to run robust power method poly(r log n) times, each with fresh random initializations. Pr ? ? Lemma 2.2. For a ?-incoherent tensor with orthogonal decomposition T = `=1 ?` (u` ? ? ? n?n?n 0 u` ? u` ) ? R , there exists positive numerical constants C, C such that when ? ? C(?max /?min )2 r5 ?6 (log n)4 , running C 0 (log r + log log ?) iterations of the robust tensor power method applied to P? (T ) achieves ku?` ? u0` k2 ? C0 |?`? ? ?` | |?`? | ? C0 ? ?max ?3 r(log n)2 ? , ? |?` | ? ? ?max ?3 r(log n)2 ? , |?`? | ? ? ? = max`?[r] |?`? | and ?min = for all ` ? [r] with probability at least 1 ? n?5 , where ?max ? min`?[r] |?` |. 2.2 Alternating Minimization Analysis We now provide convergence analysis for the alternating minimization part of Algorithm 1 to recover rank-r tensor T . Our analysis assumes that kui ? u?i k2 ? c?min /r?max , ?i where c is a small constant (dependent on r and the condition number of T ). The above mentioned assumption can be satisfied using our initialization analysis and by assuming ? is large-enough. At a high-level, our analysis shows that each step of Algorithm 1 ensures geometric decay of a distance function (specified below) which is ?similar? to maxj kutj ? u?j k2 . Pr ? ? ? ? ? Formally, let T = `=1 ?` ? u` ? u` ? u` . WLOG, we can assume that that ?` ? 1. Also, let [U, ?] = {(u` , ?` ), 1 ? ` ? r}, be the t-th step iterates of Algorithm 1. We assume that |? ?? ? | u?` , ?` are ?-incoherent and u` , ?` are 2?-incoherent. Define, ??` = `?? ` , u` = u?` + d` , (??` )t+1 = |?`t+1 ??`? | , ?`? ` and ut+1 = u?` + dt+1 ` ` . Now, define the following distance function: d? ([U, ?], [U ? , ?? ]) ? max (kd` k2 + ??` ) . ` The next theorem shows that this distance function decreases geometrically with number of iterations of Algorithm 1. A proof of this theorem is provided in Appendix B.4. ? ?min 1 Theorem 2.3. If d? ([U, ?], [U ? , ?? ]) ? 1600r and ui is 2?-incoherent for all 1 ? i ? r, ?? max then there exists a positive constant C such that for p ? ? Cr 2 (?max )2 ?3 log2 n ? (?min )2 n3/2 we have w.p. ? 1 ? 1 n7 , 1 d? ([U, ?], [U ? , ?? ]), 2 t+1 where [U t+1 , ?t+1 ] = {(ut+1 ), 1 ? ` ? r} are the (t + 1)-th step iterates of Algorithm 1. ` , ?` t+1 Moreover, each u` is 2?-incoherent for all `. d? ([U t+1 , ?t+1 ], [U ? , ?? ]) ? 6 1 p=0.0025, fit error RMSE p=0.1, fit error RMSE 0.01 error 0.0001 1e-06 1e-08 1e-10 1e-12 1e-14 1e-16 0 5 10 15 20 iterations 25 30 Figure 2: Algorithm 1 exhibits linear convergence until machine precision. For the estimate Tbt at the t-th iterations, the fit error kP? (T ? Tbt )kF /kP? (T )kF closely tracks the normalized root mean squared error kT ? Tbt kF /kT kF , suggesting that it serves as a good stopping criterion. Note that our number of samples depend on the number of iterations ? . But due to linear convergence, our sample complexity increases only by a factor of log(1/) where  is the desired accuracy. Difference from Matrix AltMin: Here, we would like to highlight differences between our analysis and analysis of the alternating minimization method for matrix completion (matrix AltMin) [4, 5]. In the matrix case, the singular vectors u?i ?s need not be unique. Hence, the analysis is required to guarantee a decay in the subspace distance dist(U, U ? ); typically, principal angle based subspace distance is used for analysis. In contrast, orthonormal u?i ?s uniquely define the tensor and hence one can obtain distance bounds kui ? u?i k2 for each component ui individually. On the other other hand, an iteration of the matrix AltMin iterates over all the vectors ui , 1 ? i ? r, where r is the rank of the current iterate and hence don?t have to consider the error in estimation of the fixed components U[r]\q = {u` , ? ` 6= q}, which is a challenge for the analysis of Algorithm 1 and requires careful decomposition and bounds of the error terms. 2.3 Proof of Theorem 1.1 Pr 0 ? ? ? ? = [u01 , . . . , u0r ] and ? 0 = Let T = q=1 ?q (uq ? uq ? uq ). Denote the initial estimates U [?10 , . . . , ?r0 ] to be the output of robust tensor power method at step 5 of Algorithm 1. With a choice ? ? of p ? C(?max )4 ?6 r4 (log n)4 /(?min )4 n3/2 as per our assumption, Lemma 2.2 ensures that we ? ? have ku0q ? u?q k ? ?min /(4800 r?max ) and |?q0 ? ?q? | ? |?q? |?min /(4800 r?max ) with probability at ?5 least 1?n . This requires running robust tensor power method for (r log n)c random initializations for some positive constant c, each requiring O(|?|) operations ignoring logarithmic factors. To ensure that we have sufficiently incoherent initial iterate, we perform thresholding proposed in [4]. In particular, we threshold all the elements of u0i (obtained from RTPM method, see Step 3 of ? (i))? ?` Algorithm 1) that are larger (in magnitude) than ?/ n to be sign(u and then re-normalize to n obtain ui . Using Lemma A.4, this procedure ensures that the obtained initial estimate ui satisfies ?? 1 the two criteria that is required by Theorem 2.3: a) kui ? u?i k2 ? 1600r ? ??min , and b) ui is max 2?-incoherent. With this initialization, Theorem 2.3 tells us that O(log2 (4r1/2 kT kF /?) iterations (each iteration requires O(r|?|) operations) is sufficient to achieve: kuq ? u?q k2 ? |?q? |? ? ? and |? ? ? | ? , q q 4r1/2 kT kF 4r1/2 kT kF for all q ? [r] with probability at least 1?n?7 log2 (4r1/2 kT kF /?). The desired bound follows from the next lemma with a choice of ?? = ?/4r1/2 kT kF . P For a proof we refer to Appendix B.6. r Lemma 2.4. For an orthogonal rank-r tensor T = q=1 ?q? (u?q ? u?q ? u?q ) and any rank-r tensor P r Tb = ?q (uq ? uq ? uq ) satisfying ku ? u? k2 ? ?? and |? ? ? ? | ? |? ? |? ? for all q ? [r] and for q=1 all positive ?? > 0, we have kT ? TbkF ? 4 r1/2 kT kF ??. 7 2.4 Fundamental limit and random hypergraphs For matrices, it is known that exact matrix completion is impossible if the underlying graph is disconnected. For Erd?os-Ren?yi graphs, when sample size is less than C?rn log n, no algorithm can recover the original matrix [6]. However, for tensor completion and random hyper graphs, such a simple connection does not exist. It is not known how the properties of the hyper graph is related to recovery. In this spirit, a rank-one third-order tensor completion has been studied in a specific context of MAX-3LIN problems. Consider a series of linear equations over n binary variables x = [x1 . . . xn ] ? {?1}n . An instance of a 3LIN problem consists of a set of linear equations on GF(2), where each equation involve exactly three variables, e.g. x1 ? x2 ? x3 = +1 , x2 ? x3 ? x4 = ?1 , x3 ? x4 ? x5 = +1 (6) We use ?1 to denote true (or 1 in GF(2)) and +1 to denote false (or 0 in GF(2)). Then the exclusiveor operation denoted by ? is the integer multiplication. the MAX-3LIN problem is to find a solution x that satisfies as many number of equations as possible. This is an NP-hard problem in general, and hence random instances of the problem with a planted solution has been studied [26]. Algorithm 1 provides a provable guarantee for MAX-3LIN with random assignments. Corollary 2.5. For random MAX-3LIN problem with a planted solution, under the hypotheses of Theorem 1.1, Algorithm 1 finds the correct solution with high probability. Notice that this tensor has incoherence one and rank one. This implies exact reconstruction for P ? C(log n)4 /n3/2 . This significantly improves over a message-passing approach to MAX-3LIN in [26], which is guaranteed to find the planted solution for p ? C(log log n)2 /(n log n). It was suggested that a new notion of connectivity called propagation connectivity is a sufficient condition for the solution of random MAX-3LIN problem with a planted solution to be unique [26, Proposition 2]. Precisely, it is claimed that if the hypergraph corresponding to an instance of MAX-3LIN is propagation connected, then the optimal solution for MAX-3LIN is unique and there is an efficient algorithm that finds it. However, the example in 6 is propagation connected but there is no unique solution: both [1, 1, 1, ?1, ?1] and [1, ?1, ?1, 1, ?1] satisfy the equations. Hence, propagation connectivity is not a sufficient condition for uniqueness of the MAX-3LIN solution. 2.5 Open Problems and Future Directions Tensor completion for non-orthogonal decomposition. Numerical simulations suggests that nonorthogonal CP models can be recovered exactly (without the usual whitening step). It would be interesting to analyze our algorithm under non-orthogonal CP model. However, we would like to point here that even with fully observed tensor, exact factorization is known only for orthonormal tensors. Now, given that our method guarantees not only completion but also tensor factorization (which is essential for large scale applications), our method would require a similar condition. ? Optimal dependence on r. The numerical results suggest the threshold sample size scaling as r. This is surprising describing a CP model scales linearly in r, im? since the degrees of freedom in ? plying that the r scaling only holds for r = O( n). In comparison, for matrix completion the threshold scales as r. It is important to understand why this change in dependence in r happens for higher order tensors, and identify how it depends on k for k-th order tensor completion. Mis-specified r and ?. The algorithm requires the knowledge of the rank r and the incoherence ?. The algorithm is not sensitive to the knowledge of ?. In fact, all the numerical experiments are run without specifying the incoherence, and without the clipping step. An interesting direction is to understand the price of mis-specified rank and to estimate the true rank from data. References [1] Anandkumar Anima, Ge Rong, Hsu Daniel, M. Kakade Sham, and Matus Telgarsky. Tensor decompositions for learning latent variable models. CoRR, abs/1210.7559, 2012. [2] A. Anandkumar, R. Ge, and M. Janzamin. Guaranteed non-orthogonal tensor decomposition via alternating rank-1 updates. arXiv preprint arXiv:1402.5180, 2014. [3] V. De Silva and L.-H. Lim. Tensor rank and the ill-posedness of the best low-rank approximation problem. SIAM Journal on Matrix Analysis and Applications, 30(3):1084?1127, 2008. 8 [4] P. Jain, P. Netrapalli, and S. Sanghavi. Low-rank matrix completion using alternating minimization. In STOC, pages 665?674, 2013. [5] M. Hardt. On the provable convergence of alternating minimization for matrix completion. arXiv preprint arXiv:1312.0925, 2013. [6] E. J. Cand`es and T. Tao. The power of convex relaxation: Near-optimal matrix completion. Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on, 56(5):2053?2080, 2010. [7] F. L. Hitchcock. The expression of a tensor or a polyadic as a sum of products. 1927. [8] J Douglas Carroll and Jih-Jie Chang. Analysis of individual differences in multidimensional scaling via an n-way generalization of eckart-young decomposition. Psychometrika, 35(3):283?319, 1970. [9] Richard A Harshman. Foundations of the parafac procedure: models and conditions for an explanatory multimodal factor analysis. 1970. [10] T. Zhang and G. H. Golub. Rank-one approximation to high order tensors. SIAM Journal on Matrix Analysis and Applications, 23(2):534?550, 2001. [11] E. Acar, D. M. Dunlavy, T. G. Kolda, and M. M?rup. Scalable tensor factorizations for incomplete data. Chemometrics and Intelligent Laboratory Systems, 106(1):41?56, 2011. [12] G. Tomasi and R. Bro. Parafac and missing values. Chemometrics and Intelligent Laboratory Systems, 75(2):163?180, 2005. [13] Rasmus Bro. Multi-way analysis in the food industry: models, algorithms, and applications. PhD thesis, K?benhavns UniversitetK?benhavns Universitet, 1998. [14] B Walczak and DL Massart. Dealing with missing data: Part i. Chemometrics and Intelligent Laboratory Systems, 58(1):15?27, 2001. [15] J. Liu, P. Musialski, P. Wonka, and J. Ye. Tensor completion for estimating missing values in visual data. Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, IEEE Trans. on, 35(1):208?220, 2013. [16] C. Mu, B. Huang, J. Wright, and D. Goldfarb. Square deal: Lower bounds and improved relaxations for tensor recovery. arXiv preprint arXiv:1307.5870, 2013. [17] A. Krishnamurthy and A. Singh. Low-rank matrix and tensor completion via adaptive sampling. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, pages 836?844, 2013. [18] E. J. Cand`es and B. Recht. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Foundations of Computational Mathematics, 9(6):717?772, 2009. [19] S. Negahban and M. J. Wainwright. Restricted strong convexity and (weighted) matrix completion: Optimal bounds with noise. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2012. [20] R. H. Keshavan, A. Montanari, and S. Oh. Matrix completion from a few entries. Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on, 56(6):2980?2998, 2010. [21] R. H Keshavan, A. Montanari, and S. Oh. Matrix completion from noisy entries. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 11(2057-2078):1, 2010. [22] R. Tomioka and T. Suzuki. Convex tensor decomposition via structured schatten norm regularization. In NIPS, pages 1331?1339, 2013. [23] Y. Azar, A. Fiat, A. Karlin, F. McSherry, and J. Saia. Spectral analysis of data. In Proc. of the 33rd annual ACM symposium on Theory of computing, pages 619?626. ACM, 2001. [24] J. Friedman, J. Kahn, and E. Szemer?edi. On the second eigenvalue in random regular graphs. In Proceedings of the Twenty-First Annual ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing, pages 587?598, Seattle, Washington, USA, may 1989. ACM. [25] U. Feige and E. Ofek. Spectral techniques applied to sparse random graphs. Random Struct. Algorithms, 27(2):251?275, 2005. [26] R. Berke and M. Onsj?o. Propagation connectivity of random hypergraphs. In Stochastic Algorithms: Foundations and Applications, pages 117?126. Springer, 2009. 9
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Generalized Higher-Order Orthogonal Iteration for Tensor Decomposition and Completion Yuanyuan Liu? , Fanhua Shang??, Wei Fan? , James Cheng? , Hong Cheng? ? Dept. of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong ? Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, The Chinese University of Hong Kong ? Huawei Noah? s Ark Lab, Hong Kong {yyliu, hcheng}@se.cuhk.edu.hk {fhshang, jcheng}@cse.cuhk.edu.hk david.fanwei@huawei.com Abstract Low-rank tensor estimation has been frequently applied in many real-world problems. Despite successful applications, existing Schatten 1-norm minimization (SNM) methods may become very slow or even not applicable for large-scale problems. To address this difficulty, we therefore propose an efficient and scalable core tensor Schatten 1-norm minimization method for simultaneous tensor decomposition and completion, with a much lower computational complexity. We first induce the equivalence relation of Schatten 1-norm of a low-rank tensor and its core tensor. Then the Schatten 1-norm of the core tensor is used to replace that of the whole tensor, which leads to a much smaller-scale matrix SNM problem. Finally, an efficient algorithm with a rank-increasing scheme is developed to solve the proposed problem with a convergence guarantee. Extensive experimental results show that our method is usually more accurate than the state-of-the-art methods, and is orders of magnitude faster. 1 Introduction There are numerous applications of higher-order tensors in machine learning [22, 29], signal processing [10, 9], computer vision [16, 17], data mining [1, 2], and numerical linear algebra [14, 21]. Especially with the rapid development of modern computing technology in recent years, tensors are becoming ubiquitous such as multi-channel images and videos, and have become increasingly popular [10]. Meanwhile, some values of their entries may be missing due to the problems in acquisition process, loss of information or costly experiments [1]. Low-rank tensor completion (LRTC) has been successfully applied to a wide range of real-world problems, such as visual data [16, 17], EEG data [9] and hyperspectral data analysis [9], and link prediction [29]. Recently, sparse vector recovery and low-rank matrix completion (LRMC) has been intensively studied [6, 5]. Especially, the convex relaxation (the Schatten 1-norm, also known as the trace norm or the nuclear norm [7]) has been used to approximate the rank of matrices and leads to a convex optimization problem. Compared with matrices, tensor can be used to express more complicated intrinsic structures of higher-order data. Liu et al. [16] indicated that LRTC methods utilize all information along each dimension, while LRMC methods only consider the constraints along two particular dimensions. As the generalization of LRMC, LRTC problems have drawn lots of attention from researchers in past several years [10]. To address the observed tensor with missing data, some weighted least-squares methods [1, 8] have been successfully applied to EEG data analysis, nature ? Corresponding author. 1 and hyperspectral images inpainting. However, they are usually sensitive to the given ranks due to their least-squares formulations [17]. Liu et al. [16] and Signorette et al. [23] first extended the Schatten 1-norm regularization for the estimation of partially observed low-rank tensors. In other words, the LRTC problem is converted into a convex combination of the Schatten 1-norm minimization (SNM) of the unfolding along each mode. Some similar algorithms can also be found in [17, 22, 25]. Besides these approaches described above, a number of variations [18] and alternatives [20, 28] have been discussed in the literature. In addition, there are some theoretical developments that guarantee the reconstruction of a low-rank tensor from partial measurements by solving the SNM problem under some reasonable conditions [24, 25, 11]. Although those SNM algorithms have been successfully applied in many real-world applications, them suffer from high computational cost of multiple SVDs as O(N I N +1 ), where the assumed size of an N -th order tensor is I ? I ? ? ? ? ? I. We focus on two major challenges faced by existing LRTC methods, the robustness of the given ranks and the computational efficiency. We propose an efficient and scalable core tensor Schatten 1-norm minimization method for simultaneous tensor decomposition and completion, which has a much lower computational complexity than existing SNM methods. In other words, our method only involves some much smaller unfoldings of the core tensor replacing that of the whole tensor. Moreover, we design a generalized Higher-order Orthogonal Iteration (gHOI) algorithm with a rankincreasing scheme to solve our model. Finally, we analyze the convergence of our algorithm and bound the gap between the resulting solution and the ground truth in terms of root mean square error. 2 Notations and Background The mode-n unfolding of an N th-order tensor X ? RI1 ?????IN is a matrix denoted by X(n) ? RIn ??j?=n Ij that is obtained by arranging the mode-n fibers to be the columns of X(n) . The Kronecker product of two matrices A ? Rm?n and B ? Rp?q is an mp ? nq matrix given by A ? B = [aij B]mp?nq . The mode-n product of a tensor X ? RI1 ?????IN with a matrix U ? RJ?In ?I is defined as (X ?n U )i1 ???in?1 jin+1 ???iN = inn=1 xi1 i2 ???iN ujin . 2.1 Tensor Decompositions and Ranks ?R The CP decomposition approximates X by i=1 a1i ? a2i ? ? ? ? ? aN i , where R > 0 is a given integer, ani ? RIn , and ? denotes the outer product of vectors. The rank of X is defined as the smallest value of R such that the approximation holds with equality. Computing the rank of the given tensor is NP-hard in general [13]. Fortunately, the n-rank of a tensor X is efficient to compute, and it consists of the matrix ranks of all mode unfoldings of the tensor. Given the n-rank(X ), the Tucker decomposition decomposes a tensor X into a core tensor multiplied by a factor matrix along each mode as follows: X = G ?1 U1 ?2 ? ? ? ?N UN . Since the ranks Rn (n = 1, ? ? ? , N ) are in general much smaller than In , the storage of the Tucker decomposition form can be significantly smaller than that of the original tensor. In [8], the weighted Tucker decomposition model for LRTC is min ?W ? (T ? G ?1 U1 ?2 ? ? ? ?N UN )?2F , G, {Un } (1) where the symbol ? denotes the Hadamard (elementwise) product, W is a nonnegative weight tensor with the same size as T : wi1 ,i2 ,??? ,iN = 1 if (i1 , i2 , ? ? ? , iN ) ? ? and wi1 ,i2 ,??? ,iN = 0 otherwise, and the elements of T in the set ? are given while the remaining entries are missing. 2.2 Low-Rank Tensor Completion For the LRTC problem, Liu et al. [16] and Signoretto et al. [23] proposed an extension of LRMC concept to tensor data as follows: min X N ? ?n ?X(n) ?? , s.t., P? (X ) = P? (T ), (2) n=1 where ?X(n) ?? denotes the Schatten 1-norm of the unfolding X(n) , i.e., the sum of its singular values, ?n ?s are pre-specified weights, and P? keeps the entries in ? and zeros out others. Gandy 2 et al. [9] presented an unweighted model, i.e., ?n = 1, n = 1, . . . , N . In addition, Tomioka and Suzuki [24] proposed a latent approach for LRTC problems: N N ? ? ? min ?(Xn )(n) ?? + ?P? ( Xn ) ? P? (T )?2F . (3) 2 {Xn } n=1 n=1 In fact, each mode-n unfolding X(n) shares the same entries and cannot be optimized independently. Therefore, we need to apply variable splitting and introduce a separate variable to each unfolding of the tensor X or Xn . However, all algorithms have to be solved iteratively and involve multiple SVDs of very large matrices in each iteration. Hence, they suffer from high computational cost and are even not applicable for large-scale problems. 3 Core Tensor Schatten 1-Norm Minimization The existing SNM algorithms for solving the problems (2) and (3) suffer high computational cost, thus they have a bad scalability. Moreover, current tensor decomposition methods require explicit knowledge of the rank to gain a reliable performance. Motivated by these, we propose a scalable model and then achieve a smaller-scale matrix Schatten 1-norm minimization problem. 3.1 Formulation Definition 1. The Schatten 1-norm of an Nth-order tensor X ? RI1 ?????IN is the sum of the Schatten 1-norms of its different unfoldings X(n) , i.e., ?X ?? = N ? ?X(n) ?? , (4) n=1 where ?X(n) ?? denotes the Schatten 1-norm of the unfolding X(n) . For the imbalance LRTC problems, the Schatten 1-norm of the tensor can be incorporated by some pre-specified weights, ?n , n = 1, . . . N . Furthermore, we have the following theorem. Theorem 1. Let X ? RI1 ?????IN with n-rank=(R1 , ? ? ? , RN ) and G ? RR1 ?????RN satisfy X = G ?1 U1 ?2 ? ? ? ?N UN , and Un ? St(In , Rn ), n = 1, 2, ? ? ? , N , then ?X ?? = ?G?? , (5) where ?X ?? denotes the Schatten 1-norm of the tensor X and St(In , Rn ) = {U ? RIn ?Rn : U T U = IRn } denotes the Stiefel manifold. Please see Appendix A of the supplementary material for the detailed proof of the theorem. The core tensor G with size (R1 , R2 , ? ? ? , RN ) has much smaller size than the observed tensor T (usually Rn ? In , n = 1, 2, ? ? ? , N ). According to Theorem 1, our Schatten 1-norm minimization problem is formulated into the following form: N ? ? min ?G(n) ?? + ?X ? G ?1 U1 ? ? ? ?N UN ?2F , 2 G,{Un },X (6) n=1 s.t., P? (X ) = P? (T ), Un ? St(In , Rn ), n = 1, ? ? ? , N. Our tensor decomposition model (6) alleviates the SVD computation burden of much larger unfolded matrices in (2) and (3). Furthermore, we use the Schatten 1-norm regularization term in (6) to promote the robustness of the rank while the Tucker decomposition model (1) is usually sensitive to the given rank-(r1 , r2 , ? ? ? , rN ) [17]. In addition, several works [12, 27] have provided some matrix rank estimation strategies to compute some values (r1 , r2 , ? ? ? , rN ) for the n-rank of the involved tensor. In this paper, we only set some relatively large integers (R1 , R2 , ? ? ? , RN ) such that Rn ? rn for all n = 1, ? ? ? , N . Different from (2) and (3), some smaller matrices Vn ? RRn ??j?=n Rj (n = 1, ? ? ? , N ) are introduced into (6) as the auxiliary variables, and then our model (6) is reformulated into the following equivalent form: N ? ? min ?Vn ?? + ?X ? G ?1 U1 ? ? ? ?N UN ?2F , 2 G,{Un },{Vn },X (7) n=1 s.t., P? (X ) = P? (T ), Vn = G(n) , Un ? St(In , Rn ), n = 1, ? ? ? , N. 3 In the following, we will propose an efficient gHOI algorithm based on alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) to solve the problem (7). ADMM decomposes a large problem into a series of smaller subproblems, and coordinates the solutions of subproblems to compute the optimal solution. In recent years, it has been shown in [3] that ADMM is very efficient for some convex or non-convex optimization problems in various applications. 3.2 A gHOI Algorithm with Rank-Increasing Scheme The proposed problem (7) can be solved by ADMM. Its partial augmented Lagrangian function is L? = N ? ? ? (?Vn ?? + ?Yn , G(n) ? Vn ? + ?G(n) ? Vn ?2F ) + ?X ? G ?1 U1 ?2 ? ? ? ?N UN ?2F , (8) 2 2 n=1 where Yn , n = 1, ? ? ? , N , are the matrices of Lagrange multipliers, and ? > 0 is a penalty parameter. ADMM solves the proposed problem (7) by successively minimizing the Lagrange function L? over {G, U1 , ? ? ? , UN , V1 , ? ? ? , VN , X }, and then updating {Y1 , ? ? ? , YN }. k+1 Updating {U1k+1 , ? ? ? , UN , G k+1 }: The optimization problem with respect to {U1 , ? ? ? , UN } and G is formulated as follows: N ? ? ?k ?G(n) ? Vnk + Ynk /?k ?2F + ?X k ? G ?1 U1 ? ? ? ?N UN ?2F , (9) min 2 2 G, {Un ?St(In ,rn )} n=1 where rn is an underestimated rank (rn ? Rn ), and is dynamically adjusted by using the following rank-increasing scheme. Different from HOOI in [14], we will propose a generalized higher-order orthogonal iteration scheme to solve the problem (9) in Section 3.3. Updating {V1k+1 , ? ? ? , VNk+1 }: With keeping all the other variables fixed, Vnk+1 is updated by solving the following problem: ?k k+1 ?G(n) ? Vn + Ynk /?k ?2F . (10) Vn 2 For solving the problem (10), the spectral soft-thresholding operation [4] is considered as a shrinkage operation on the singular values and is defined as follows: 1 Vnk+1 = prox1/?k (Mn ) := U diag(max{? ? k , 0})V T , (11) ? min ?Vn ?? + k+1 where Mn = G(n) + Ynk /?k , max{?, ?} should be understood element-wise, and Mn = U diag(?)V T is the SVD of Mn . Here, only some matrices Mn of smaller size in (11) need to ? perform SVD. Thus, this updating step has a significantly lower computational complexity O( n Rn2 ? ?j?=n Rj ) at worst while ? the computational complexity of the convex SNM algorithms for both problems (2) and (3) is O( n In2 ??j?=n Ij ) at each iteration. Updating X k+1 : The optimization problem with respect to X is formulated as follows: k+1 2 min ?X ? G k+1 ?1 U1k+1 ? ? ? ?N UN ?F , s.t., P? (X ) = P? (T ). X (12) By deriving simply the KKT conditions for (12), the optimal solution X is given by k+1 X k+1 = P? (T ) + P?c (G k+1 ?1 U1k+1 ? ? ? ?N UN ), (13) c where ? is the complement of ?, i.e., the set of indexes of the unobserved entries. Rank-increasing scheme: The idea of interlacing fixed-rank optimization with adaptive rank-adjusting schemes has appeared recently in the particular context of matrix completion [27, 28]. It is here extended to our algorithm for solving the proposed probk+1 lem. Let U k+1 = (U1k+1 , U2k+1 , . . . , UN ), V k+1 = (V1k+1 , V2k+1 , . . . , VNk+1 ), and k+1 k+1 k+1 k+1 Y = (Y1 , Y2 , . . . , YN ). Considering the fact L?k (X k+1 , G k+1 , U k+1 , V k+1 , Y k ) ? L?k (X k , G k , U k , V k , Y k ), our rank-increasing scheme starts rn such that rn ? Rn . We increase rn to min(rn + ?rn , Rn ) at iteration k + 1 if k+1 , G k+1 , U k+1 , V k+1 , Y k ) 1 ? L?k (X (14) ? ?, L k (X k , G k , U k , V k , Y k ) ? 4 Algorithm 1 Solving problem (7) via gHOI Input: P? (T ), (R1 , ? ? ? , RN ), ? and tol. 1: while not converged do 2: Update Unk+1 , G k+1 , Vnk+1 and X k+1 by (18), (20), (11) and (13), respectively. 3: Apply the rank-increasing scheme. k+1 ? Vnk+1 ), n = 1, . . . , N . 4: Update the multiplier Ynk+1 by Ynk+1 = Ynk + ?k (G(n) 5: Update the parameter ?k+1 by ?k+1 = min(??k , ?max ). k+1 ? Vnk+1 ?2F , n = 1, . . . , N ) < tol. 6: Check the convergence condition, max(?G(n) 7: end while Output: X , G, and Un , n = 1, ? ? ? , N . bn ] which ?rn is a positive integer and ? is a small constant. Moreover, we augment Unk+1 ? [Unk , U k k T b b b where Hn has ?rn randomly generated columns, Un = (I ? Un (Un ) )Hn , and then orthonormalbn . Let Vn = refold(Vnk ) ? Rr1 ?????rN , and Wn ? R(r1 +?r1 )?????(rN +?rN ) be augmented as ize U follows: (Wn )i1 ,??? ,iN = (Vn )i1 ,??? ,iN for all it ? rt and t ? [1, N ], and (Wn )i1 ,??? ,iN = 0 otherwise, where refold(?) denotes the refolding of the matrix into a tensor and unfold(?) is the unfolding operator. Hence, we set Vnk = unfold(Wn ) and update Ynk by the same way. We then update the involved variables G k+1 , Vnk+1 and X k+1 by (20), (11) and (13), respectively. Summarizing the analysis above, we develop an efficient gHOI algorithm for solving the tensor decomposition and completion problem (7), as outlined in Algorithm 1. Our algorithm in essence is the Gauss-Seidel version of ADMM. The update strategy of Jacobi ADMM can easily be implemented, thus our gHOI algorithm is well suited for parallel and distributed computing and hence is particularly attractive for solving certain large-scale problems [21]. Algorithm 1 can be accelerated by adaptively changing ? as in [15]. 3.3 Generalized Higher-Order Orthogonal Iteration We propose a generalized HOOI scheme for solving the problem (9), where the conventional HOOI model in [14] can be seen as a special case of the problem (9) when ?k = 0. Therefore, we extend Theorem 4.2 in [14] to solve the problem (9) as follows. Theorem 2. Assume a real N th-order tensor X , then the minimization of the following cost function f (G, U1 , . . . , UN ) = N ? ? ?k ?G(n) ? Vnk + Ynk /?k ?2F + ?X k ? G ?1 U1 ? ? ? ?N UN ?2F 2 2 n=1 is equivalent to the maximization, over the matrices U1 , U2 , . . . , UN having orthonormal columns, of the function g(U1 , U2 , . . . , UN ) = ??M + ?k N ?2F , (15) ?N k T T k k k where M = X ?1 (U1 ) ? ? ? ?N (UN ) and N = n=1 refold(Vn ? Yn /? ). Please see Appendix B of the supplementary material for the detailed proof of the theorem. k+1 Updating {U1k+1 , ? ? ? , UN }: According to Theorem 2, our generalized HOOI scheme successively solves Un , n = 1, . . . , N with fixing other variables Uj , j ?= n. Imagine that the matrices {U1 , . . . , Un?1 , Un+1 , . . . , UN } are fixed and that the optimization problem (15) is thought of as a quadratic expression in the components of the matrix Un that is being optimized. Considering that the matrix has orthonormal columns, we have max Un ?St(In ,rn ) where ??Mn ?n UnT + ?k N ?2F , k+1 T k k T Mn = X k ?1 (U1k+1 )T ? ? ? ?n?1 (Un?1 ) ?n+1 (Un+1 )T ? ? ? ?N (UN ) . (16) (17) This is actually the well-known orthogonal procrustes problem [19], whose optimal solution is given T by the singular value decomposition of (Mn )(n) N(n) , i.e., Unk+1 = U (n) (V (n) )T , 5 (18) T where U (n) and V (n) are obtained by the skinny SVD of (Mn )(n) N(n) . Repeating the procedure above for different modes leads to an alternating orthogonal procrustes scheme for solving the maximization of the problem (16). For any estimate of those factor matrices Un , n = 1, . . . , N , the optimal solution to the problem (9) with respect to G is updated in the following. Updating G k+1 : The optimization problem (9) with respect to G can be rewritten as follows: min G N ? ?k ? k+1 2 ?G(n) ? Vnk + Ynk /?k ?2F + ?X k ? G ?1 U1k+1 ? ? ? ?N UN ?F . 2 2 n=1 (19) (19) is a smooth convex optimization problem, thus we can obtain a closed-form solution, G k+1 = 4 N ? ? ?k k+1 T k+1 T k X ? (U ) ? ? ? ? (U ) + refold(Vnk ? Ynk /?k ). (20) 1 N 1 N ? + N ?k ? + N ?k n=1 Theoretical Analysis In the following we first present the convergence analysis of Algorithm 1. 4.1 Convergence Analysis k }, {V1k , . . . , VNk }, X k ) be a sequence generated by Algorithm 1, Theorem 3. Let (G k , {U1k , . . . , UN then we have the following conclusions: k }, {V1k , . . . , VNk }, X k ) are Cauchy sequences, respectively. (I) (G k , {U1k , . . . , UN k k k+1 }, X k ) converges to a (II) If limk?? ? (Vn ? Vnk ) = 0, n = 1, ? ? ? , N , then (G k , {U1k , . . . , UN KKT point of the problem (6). The proof of the theorem can be found in Appendix C of the supplementary material. 4.2 Recovery Guarantee We will show that when sufficiently many entries are sampled, the KKT point of Algorithm 1 is stable, i.e., it recovers a tensor ?close to? the ground-truth one. We assume that the observed tensor T ? RI1 ?I2 ????IN can be decomposed as a true tensor D with rank-(r1 , r2 , . . . , rN ) and a random gaussian noise E whose entries are independently drawn from N (0, ? 2 ), i.e., T = D + E. For convenience, we suppose I1 = ? ? ? = IN = I and r1 = . . . = rN = r. Let the recovered tensor A = G?1 U1? . . .?N UN , the root mean square error (RMSE) is a frequently used measure of the difference between the recovered tensor and the true one: RMSE := ?1N ?D ? A?F . I [25] analyzes the statistical performance of the convex tensor Schatten 1-norm minimization problem with the general linear operator X : RI1 ?...?IN ? Rm . However, our model (6) is non-convex for the LRTC problem with the operator P? . Thus, we follow the sketch of the proof in [26] to analyze the statistical performance of our model (6). Definition 2. The operator PS is defined as follows: PS (X ) = PUN ? ? ? PU1 (X ), where PUn (X ) = X?n (Un UnT ). Theorem 4. Let (G, U1 , U2 , . . . , UN ) be a KKT point of the problem (6) with given ranks R1 = ? ? ? = RN = R. Then there exists an absolute constant C (please see Supplementary Material), such that with probability at least 1 ? 2 exp(?I N ?1 ), ? )1 ( N ?1 ?E?F N R I R log(I N ?1 ) 4 ? , (21) RMSE ? ? + + C? |?| C1 ? |?| IN where ? = maxi1 ,??? ,iN |Ti1 ,??? ,iN | and C1 = ?PS P? (T ?A)?F ?P? (T ?A)?F . The proof of the theorem and the analysis of lower-boundedness of C1 can be found in Appendix D of the supplementary material. Furthermore, our result can also be extended to the general linear operator X , e.g., the identity operator (i.e., tensor decomposition problems). Similar to [25], we assume that the operator satisfies the following restricted strong convexity (RSC) condition. 6 Table 1: RSE and running time (seconds) comparison on synthetic tensor data: (a) Tensor size: 30?30?30?30?30 WTucker WCP FaLRTC Latent gHOI SR RSE?std. Time RSE?std. Time RSE?std. Time RSE?std. Time RSE?std. Time 10% 0.4982?2.3e-2 2163.05 0.5003?3.6e-2 4359.23 0.6744?2.7e-2 1575.78 0.6268?5.0e-2 8324.17 0.2537?1.2e-2 159.43 30% 0.1562?1.7e-2 2226.67 0.3364?2.3e-2 3949.57 0.3153?1.4e-2 1779.59 0.2443?1.2e-2 8043.83 0.1206?6.0e-3 143.86 50% 0.0490?9.3e-3 2652.90 0.0769?5.0e-3 3260.86 0.0365?6.2e-4 2024.52 0.0559?7.7e-3 8263.24 0.0159?1.3e-3 135.60 (b) Tensor size: 60 ? 60 ? 60 ? 60 WTucker WCP FaLRTC Latent gHOI SR RSE?std. Time RSE?std. Time RSE?std. Time RSE?std. Time RSE?std. 10% 0.2319?3.6e-2 1437.61 0.4766?9.4e-2 1586.92 0.4927?1.6e-2 562.15 0.5061?4.4e-2 5075.82 0.1674?3.4e-3 30% 0.0143?2.8e-3 1756.95 0.1994?6.0e-3 1696.27 0.1694?2.5e-3 603.49 0.1872?7.5e-3 5559.17 0.0076?6.5e-4 50% 0.0079?6.2e-4 2534.59 0.1335?4.9e-3 1871.38 0.0602?5.8e-4 655.69 0.0583?9.7e-4 6086.63 0.0030?1.7e-4 Time 60.53 57.19 55.62 Definition 3 (RSC). We suppose that there is a positive constant ?(X ) such that the operator X : RI1 ?...?IN ? Rm satisfies the inequality 1 ?X (?)?22 ? ?(X )???2F , m where ? ? RI1 ?...?IN is an arbitrary tensor. Theorem 5. Assume the operator X satisfies the RSC condition with a constant ?(X ) and the observations y = X (D) + ?. Let (G, U1 , U2 , . . . , UN ) be a KKT point of the following problem with given ranks R1 = ? ? ? = RN = R, min G, {Un ?St(In ,Rn )} N ? ?G(n) ?? + n=1 Then ? ?y ? X (G?1 U1? ? ? ??N UN )?22 . 2 ???2 RMSE ? ? m?(X )I N where C2 = ?PS X ? (y?X (A))?F ?y?X (A)?2 ? N R ? + , C2 ? m?(X )I N (22) (23) and X ? denotes the adjoint operator of X . The proof of the theorem can be found in Appendix E of the supplementary material. 5 5.1 Experiments Synthetic Tensor Completion Following [17], we generated a low-n-rank tensor T ? RI1 ?I2 ?????IN which we used as the ground truth data. The order of the tensors varies from three to five, and r is set to 10. Furthermore, we randomly sample a few entries from T and recover the whole tensor with various sampling ratios (SRs) by our gHOI method and the state-of-the-art LRTC algorithms including WTucker [8], WCP [1], FaLRTC [17], and Latent [24]. The relative square error (RSE) of the recovered tensor X for all these algorithms is defined by RSE := ?X ? T ?F /?T ?F . The average results (RSE and running time) of 10 independent runs are shown in Table 1, where the order of tensor data varies from four to five. It is clear that our gHOI method consistently yields much more accurate solutions, and outperforms the other algorithms in terms of both RSE and efficiency. Moreover, we present the running time of our gHOI method and the other methods with varying sizes of third-order tensors, as shown in Fig. 1(a). We can see that the running time of WTcuker, WCP, Latent and FaLRTC dramatically grows with the increase of tensor size whereas that of our gHOI method only increases slightly. This shows that our gHOI method has very good scalability and can address large-scale problems. To further evaluate the robustness of our gHOI method with respect to the given tensor rank changes, we conduct some experiments on the synthetic data of size 100 ? 100 ? 100, and illustrate the recovery results of all methods with 20% SR, where the rank parameter of gHOI, WTucker and WCP is chosen from {10, 15, ? ? ? , 40}. The average RSE results of 10 independent runs are shown in Fig. 1(b), from which we can see that our gHOI method performs much more robust than both WTucker and WCP. 7 0.5 WTucker WCP FaLRTC Latent gHOI WTucker WCP FaLRTC Latent gHOI 2 10 200 400 600 800 Size of tensors 1000 0.15 0.1 0.05 10 WTucker FaLRTC Latent gHOI 2 10 0 10 20 30 40 0.2 Rank (a) WTucker FaLRTC Latent gHOI 0.4 3 RSE 4 10 Time (seconds) 0.2 RSE Time (seconds) 0.25 (b) 0.4 0.6 Sampling rates (c) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.8 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Sampling rates 0.8 (d) Figure 1: Comparison of all these methods in terms of computational time (in seconds and in logarithmic scale) and RSE on synthetic third-order tensors by varying tensor sizes (a) or given ranks (b), and the BRAINIX data set: running time (c) and RSE (d). (a) Original (b) 30% SR (c) RSE: 0.2693 (d) RSE: 0.3005 (e) RSE: 0.2858 (f) RSE: 0.2187 Figure 2: The recovery results on the BRAINIX data set with 30% SR: (c)-(e) The results of WTucker, FaLRTC, Latent and gHOI, respectively (Best viewed zoomed in). 5.2 Medical Images Inpainting In this part, we apply our gHOI method for medical image inpainting problems on the BRAINIX data set1 . The recovery results on one randomly chosen image with 30% SR are illustrated in Fig. 2. Moreover, we also present the recovery accuracy (RSE) and running time (seconds) with varying SRs, as shown in Fig. 1(c) and (d). From these results, we can observe that our gHOI method consistently performs better than the other methods in terms of both RSE and efficiency. Especially, gHOI is about 20 times faster than WTucker and FaLRTC, and more than 90 times faster than Latent, when the sample percentage is 10%. By increasing the sampling rate, the RSE results of three Schatten 1-norm minimization methods including Latent, FaLRTC and gHOI, dramatically reduce. In contrast, the RSE of WTucker decreases slightly. 6 Conclusions We proposed a scalable core tensor Schatten 1-norm minimization method for simultaneous tensor decomposition and completion. First, we induced the equivalence relation of the Schatten 1-norm of a low-rank tensor and its core tensor. Then we formulated a tractable Schatten 1-norm regularized tensor decomposition model with missing data, which is a convex combination of multiple much smaller-scale matrix SNM. Finally, we developed an efficient gHOI algorithm to solve our problem. Moreover, we also provided the convergence analysis and recovery guarantee of our algorithm. The convincing experimental results verified the efficiency and effectiveness of our gHOI algorithm. gHOI is significantly faster than the state-of-the-art LRTC methods. In the future, we will apply our gHOI algorithm to address a variety of robust tensor recovery and completion problems, e.g., higher-order RPCA [10] and robust LRTC. Acknowledgments This research is supported in part by SHIAE Grant No. 8115048, MSRA Grant No. 6903555, GRF No. 411211, CUHK direct grant Nos. 4055015 and 4055017, China 973 Fundamental R&D Program, No. 2014CB340304, and Huawei Grant No. 7010255. 1 http://www.osirix-viewer.com/datasets/ 8 References [1] E. Acar, D. Dunlavy, T. Kolda, and M. M?rup. Scalable tensor factorizations with missing data. In SDM, pages 701?711, 2010. [2] A. Anandkumar, D. Hsu, M. Janzamin, and S. Kakade. When are overcomplete topic models identifiable? uniqueness of tensor Tucker decompositions with structured sparsity. In NIPS, pages 1986?1994, 2013. [3] S. Boyd, N. Parikh, E. Chu, B. Peleato, and J. Eckstein. Distributed optimization and statistical learning via the alternating direction method of multipliers. Found. Trends Mach. Learn., 3(1):1?122, 2011. [4] J. Cai, E. Cand`es, and Z. Shen. A singular value thresholding algorithm for matrix completion. SIAM J. Optim., 20(4):1956?1982, 2010. [5] E. Cand`es and B. Recht. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math., 9(6):717?772, 2009. [6] E. Cand`es, J. Romberg, and T. Tao. Robust uncertainty principles: exact signal reconstruction from highly incomplete frequency information. IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, 52(2):489?509, 2006. [7] M. Fazel. Matrix Rank Minimization with Applications. PhD thesis, Stanford University, 2002. [8] M. Filipovic and A. Jukic. Tucker factorization with missing data with application to low-n-rank tensor completion. Multidim. Syst. Sign. Process., 2014. [9] S. Gandy, B. Recht, and I. Yamada. Tensor completion and low-n-rank tensor recovery via convex optimization. Inverse Problem, 27(2), 2011. [10] D. Goldfarb and Z. Qin. Robust low-rank tesnor recovery: Models and algorithms. SIAM J. Matrix Anal. Appl., 35(1):225?253, 2014. [11] B. Huang, C. Mu, D. Goldfarb, and J. Wright. Provable low-rank tensor recovery. In OptimizationOnline:4252, 2014. [12] R. Keshavan, A. Montanari, and S. Oh. Matrix completion from a few entries. IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, 56(6):2980?2998, 2010. [13] T. Kolda and B. Bader. Tensor decompositions and applications. SIAM Review, 51(3):455?500, 2009. [14] L. Lathauwer, B. Moor, and J. Vandewalle. On the best rank-1 and rank-(r1,r2,...,rn) approximation of high-order tensors. SIAM J. Matrix Anal. Appl., 21(4):1324?1342, 2000. [15] Z. Lin, R. Liu, and Z. Su. Linearized alternating direction method with adaptive penalty for low-rank representation. In NIPS, pages 612?620, 2011. [16] J. Liu, P. Musialski, P. Wonka, and J. Ye. Tensor completion for estimating missing values in visual data. In ICCV, pages 2114?2121, 2009. [17] J. Liu, P. Musialski, P. Wonka, and J. Ye. Tensor completion for estimating missing values in visual data. IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell., 35(1):208?220, 2013. [18] C. Mu, B. Huang, J. Wright, and D. Goldfarb. Square deal: lower bounds and improved relaxations for tensor recovery. In ICML, pages 73?81, 2014. [19] H. Nick. Matrix procrustes problems. 1995. [20] B. Romera-Paredes and M. Pontil. A new convex relaxation for tensor completion. In NIPS, pages 2967?2975, 2013. [21] F. Shang, Y. Liu, and J. Cheng. Generalized higher-order tensor decomposition via parallel ADMM. In AAAI, pages 1279?1285, 2014. [22] M. Signoretto, Q. Dinh, L. Lathauwer, and J. Suykens. Learning with tensors: A framework based on covex optimization and spectral regularization. Mach. Learn., 94(3):303?351, 2014. [23] M. Signoretto, L. Lathauwer, and J. Suykens. Nuclear norms for tensors and their use for convex multilinear estimation. Technical Report 10-186, ESATSISTA, K. U. Leuven, 2010. [24] R. Tomioka and T. Suzuki. Convex tensor decomposition via structured Schatten norm regularization. In NIPS, pages 1331?1339, 2013. [25] R. Tomioka, T. Suzuki, K. Hayashi, and H. Kashima. Statistical performance of convex tensor decomposition. In NIPS, pages 972?980, 2011. [26] Y. Wang and H. Xu. Stability of matrix factorization for collaborative filtering. In ICML, 2012. [27] Z. Wen, W. Yin, and Y. Zhang. Solving a low-rank factorization model for matrix completion by a nonlinear successive over-relaxation algorithm. Math. Prog. Comp., 4(4):333?361, 2012. [28] Y. Xu, R. Hao, W. Yin, and Z. Su. Parallel matrix factorization for low-rank tensor completion. In arXiv:1312.1254, 2013. [29] Y. Yilmaz, A. Cemgil, and U. Simsekli. Generalised coupled tensor factorisation. In NIPS, pages 2151? 2159, 2011. 9
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Neural Word Embedding as Implicit Matrix Factorization Omer Levy Department of Computer Science Bar-Ilan University omerlevy@gmail.com Yoav Goldberg Department of Computer Science Bar-Ilan University yoav.goldberg@gmail.com Abstract We analyze skip-gram with negative-sampling (SGNS), a word embedding method introduced by Mikolov et al., and show that it is implicitly factorizing a word-context matrix, whose cells are the pointwise mutual information (PMI) of the respective word and context pairs, shifted by a global constant. We find that another embedding method, NCE, is implicitly factorizing a similar matrix, where each cell is the (shifted) log conditional probability of a word given its context. We show that using a sparse Shifted Positive PMI word-context matrix to represent words improves results on two word similarity tasks and one of two analogy tasks. When dense low-dimensional vectors are preferred, exact factorization with SVD can achieve solutions that are at least as good as SGNS?s solutions for word similarity tasks. On analogy questions SGNS remains superior to SVD. We conjecture that this stems from the weighted nature of SGNS?s factorization. 1 Introduction Most tasks in natural language processing and understanding involve looking at words, and could benefit from word representations that do not treat individual words as unique symbols, but instead reflect similarities and dissimilarities between them. The common paradigm for deriving such representations is based on the distributional hypothesis of Harris [15], which states that words in similar contexts have similar meanings. This has given rise to many word representation methods in the NLP literature, the vast majority of whom can be described in terms of a word-context matrix M in which each row i corresponds to a word, each column j to a context in which the word appeared, and each matrix entry Mij corresponds to some association measure between the word and the context. Words are then represented as rows in M or in a dimensionality-reduced matrix based on M . Recently, there has been a surge of work proposing to represent words as dense vectors, derived using various training methods inspired from neural-network language modeling [3, 9, 23, 21]. These representations, referred to as ?neural embeddings? or ?word embeddings?, have been shown to perform well in a variety of NLP tasks [26, 10, 1]. In particular, a sequence of papers by Mikolov and colleagues [20, 21] culminated in the skip-gram with negative-sampling (SGNS) training method which is both efficient to train and provides state-of-the-art results on various linguistic tasks. The training method (as implemented in the word2vec software package) is highly popular, but not well understood. While it is clear that the training objective follows the distributional hypothesis ? by trying to maximize the dot-product between the vectors of frequently occurring word-context pairs, and minimize it for random word-context pairs ? very little is known about the quantity being optimized by the algorithm, or the reason it is expected to produce good word representations. In this work, we aim to broaden the theoretical understanding of neural-inspired word embeddings. Specifically, we cast SGNS?s training method as weighted matrix factorization, and show that its objective is implicitly factorizing a shifted PMI matrix ? the well-known word-context PMI matrix from the word-similarity literature, shifted by a constant offset. A similar result holds also for the 1 NCE embedding method of Mnih and Kavukcuoglu [24]. While it is impractical to directly use the very high-dimensional and dense shifted PMI matrix, we propose to approximate it with the positive shifted PMI matrix (Shifted PPMI), which is sparse. Shifted PPMI is far better at optimizing SGNS?s objective, and performs slightly better than word2vec derived vectors on several linguistic tasks. Finally, we suggest a simple spectral algorithm that is based on performing SVD over the Shifted PPMI matrix. The spectral algorithm outperforms both SGNS and the Shifted PPMI matrix on the word similarity tasks, and is scalable to large corpora. However, it lags behind the SGNS-derived representation on word-analogy tasks. We conjecture that this behavior is related to the fact that SGNS performs weighted matrix factorization, giving more influence to frequent pairs, as opposed to SVD, which gives the same weight to all matrix cells. While the weighted and non-weighted objectives share the same optimal solution (perfect reconstruction of the shifted PMI matrix), they result in different generalizations when combined with dimensionality constraints. 2 Background: Skip-Gram with Negative Sampling (SGNS) Our departure point is SGNS ? the skip-gram neural embedding model introduced in [20] trained using the negative-sampling procedure presented in [21]. In what follows, we summarize the SGNS model and introduce our notation. A detailed derivation of the SGNS model is available in [14]. Setting and Notation The skip-gram model assumes a corpus of words w ? VW and their contexts c ? VC , where VW and VC are the word and context vocabularies. In [20, 21] the words come from an unannotated textual corpus of words w1 , w2 , . . . , wn (typically n is in the billions) and the contexts for word wi are the words surrounding it in an L-sized window wi?L , . . . , wi?1 , wi+1 , . . . , wi+L . Other definitions of contexts are possible [18]. We denote the collection of observed words and context pairs as P D. We use #(w, c) to denote the Pnumber of times the pair (w, c) appears in D. Similarly, #(w) = c0 ?VC #(w, c0 ) and #(c) = w0 ?VW #(w0 , c) are the number of times w and c occurred in D, respectively. Each word w ? VW is associated with a vector w ~ ? Rd and similarly each context c ? VC is represented as a vector ~c ? Rd , where d is the embedding?s dimensionality. The entries in the vectors are latent, and treated as parameters to be learned. We sometimes refer to the vectors w ~ as rows in a |VW | ? d matrix W , and to the vectors ~c as rows in a |VC | ? d matrix C. In such cases, Wi (Ci ) refers to the vector representation of the ith word (context) in the corresponding vocabulary. When referring to embeddings produced by a specific method x, we will usually use W x and C x explicitly, but may use just W and C when the method is clear from the discussion. SGNS?s Objective Consider a word-context pair (w, c). Did this pair come from the observed data D? Let P (D = 1|w, c) be the probability that (w, c) came from the data, and P (D = 0|w, c) = 1 ? P (D = 1|w, c) the probability that (w, c) did not. The distribution is modeled as: 1 P (D = 1|w, c) = ?(w ~ ? ~c) = ~ c 1 + e?w?~ where w ~ and ~c (each a d-dimensional vector) are the model parameters to be learned. The negative sampling objective tries to maximize P (D = 1|w, c) for observed (w, c) pairs while maximizing P (D = 0|w, c) for randomly sampled ?negative? examples (hence the name ?negative sampling?), under the assumption that randomly selecting a context for a given word is likely to result in an unobserved (w, c) pair. SGNS?s objective for a single (w, c) observation is then: log ?(w ~ ? ~c) + k ? EcN ?PD [log ?(?w ~ ? ~cN )] (1) where k is the number of ?negative? samples and cN is the sampled context, drawn according to the 1 empirical unigram distribution PD (c) = #(c) |D| . 3/4 In the algorithm described in [21], the negative contexts are sampled according to p3/4 (c) = #cZ instead of the unigram distribution #c . Sampling according to p3/4 indeed produces somewhat superior results Z on some of the semantic evaluation tasks. It is straight-forward to modify the PMI metric in a similar fashion by replacing the p(c) term with p3/4 (c), and doing so shows similar trends in the matrix-based methods as it does in word2vec?s stochastic gradient based training method. We do not explore this further in this paper, and report results using the unigram distribution. 1 2 The objective is trained in an online fashion using stochastic gradient updates over the observed pairs in the corpus D. The global objective then sums over the observed (w, c) pairs in the corpus: X X `= #(w, c) (log ?(w ~ ? ~c) + k ? EcN ?PD [log ?(?w ~ ? ~cN )]) (2) w?VW c?VC Optimizing this objective makes observed word-context pairs have similar embeddings, while scattering unobserved pairs. Intuitively, words that appear in similar contexts should have similar embeddings, though we are not familiar with a formal proof that SGNS does indeed maximize the dot-product of similar words. 3 SGNS as Implicit Matrix Factorization SGNS embeds both words and their contexts into a low-dimensional space Rd , resulting in the word and context matrices W and C. The rows of matrix W are typically used in NLP tasks (such as computing word similarities) while C is ignored. It is nonetheless instructive to consider the product W ? C > = M . Viewed this way, SGNS can be described as factorizing an implicit matrix M of dimensions |VW | ? |VC | into two smaller matrices. Which matrix is being factorized? A matrix entry Mij corresponds to the dot product Wi ? Cj = w ~ i ? ~cj . Thus, SGNS is factorizing a matrix in which each row corresponds to a word w ? VW , each column corresponds to a context c ? VC , and each cell contains a quantity f (w, c) reflecting the strength of association between that particular word-context pair. Such word-context association matrices are very common in the NLP and word-similarity literature, see e.g. [29, 2]. That said, the objective of SGNS (equation 2) does not explicitly state what this association metric is. What can we say about the association function f (w, c)? In other words, which matrix is SGNS factorizing? 3.1 Characterizing the Implicit Matrix Consider the global objective (equation 2) above. For sufficiently large dimensionality d (i.e. allowing for a perfect reconstruction of M ), each product w ~ ? ~c can assume a value independently of the others. Under these conditions, we can treat the objective ` as a function of independent w ~ ? ~c terms, and find the values of these terms that maximize it. We begin by rewriting equation 2: X X X X `= #(w, c) (log ?(w ~ ? ~c)) + #(w, c) (k ? EcN ?PD [log ?(?w ~ ? ~cN )]) w?VW c?VC = w?VW c?VC X X X #(w, c) (log ?(w ~ ? ~c)) + w?VW c?VC #(w) (k ? EcN ?PD [log ?(?w ~ ? ~cN )]) (3) w?VW and explicitly expressing the expectation term: X #(cN ) log ?(?w ~ ? ~cN ) |D| EcN ?PD [log ?(?w ~ ? ~cN )] = cN ?VC = #(c) log ?(?w ~ ? ~c) + |D| X cN ?VC \{c} #(cN ) log ?(?w ~ ? ~cN ) |D| (4) Combining equations 3 and 4 reveals the local objective for a specific (w, c) pair: #(c) log ?(?w ~ ? ~c) |D| To optimize the objective, we define x = w ~ ? ~c and find its partial derivative with respect to x: ?` #(c) = #(w, c) ? ?(?x) ? k ? #(w) ? ? ?(x) ?x |D| We compare the derivative to zero, and after some simplification, arrive at: ? ? #(w, c) #(w, c) ? 1? ex ? =0 e2x ? ? #(c) k ? #(w) ? |D| k ? #(w) ? #(c) |D| `(w, c) = #(w, c) log ?(w ~ ? ~c) + k ? #(w) ? 3 (5) If we define y = ex , this equation becomes a quadratic equation of y, which has two solutions, y = ?1 (which is invalid given the definition of y) and: y= #(w, c) k ? #(w) ? #(w, c) ? |D| 1 ? #w ? #(c) k = #(c) |D| Substituting y with ex and x with w ~ ? ~c reveals:     #(w, c) ? |D| 1 #(w, c) ? |D| w ~ ? ~c = log ? = log ? log k (6) #(w) ? #(c) k #(w) ? #(c)   Interestingly, the expression log #(w,c)?|D| is the well-known pointwise mutual information #(w)?#(c) (PMI) of (w, c), which we discuss in depth below. Finally, we can describe the matrix M that SGNS is factorizing: SGNS Mij = Wi ? Cj = w ~ i ? ~cj = P M I(wi , cj ) ? log k (7) For a negative-sampling value of k = 1, the SGNS objective is factorizing a word-context matrix in which the association between a word and its context is measured by f (w, c) = P M I(w, c). We refer to this matrix as the PMI matrix, M P M I . For negative-sampling values k > 1, SGNS is factorizing a shifted PMI matrix M P M Ik = M P M I ? log k. Other embedding methods can also be cast as factorizing implicit word-context matrices. Using a similar derivation, it can be shown that noise-contrastive estimation (NCE) [24] is factorizing the (shifted) log-conditional-probability matrix:   #(w, c) NCE Mij = w ~ i ? ~cj = log ? log k = log P (w|c) ? log k (8) #(c) 3.2 Weighted Matrix Factorization We obtained that SGNS?s objective is optimized by setting w ~ ? ~c = P M I(w, c) ? log k for every (w, c) pair. However, this assumes that the dimensionality of w ~ and ~c is high enough to allow for perfect reconstruction. When perfect reconstruction is not possible, some w ~ ?~c products must deviate from their optimal values. Looking at the pair-specific objective (equation 5) reveals that the loss for a pair (w, c) depends on its number of observations (#(w, c)) and expected negative samples (k ? #(w) ? #(c)/|D|). SGNS?s objective can now be cast as a weighted matrix factorization problem, seeking the optimal d-dimensional factorization of the matrix M P M I ? log k under a metric which pays more for deviations on frequent (w, c) pairs than deviations on infrequent ones. 3.3 Pointwise Mutual Information Pointwise mutual information is an information-theoretic association measure between a pair of discrete outcomes x and y, defined as: P M I(x, y) = log P (x, y) P (x)P (y) (9) In our case, P M I(w, c) measures the association between a word w and a context c by calculating the log of the ratio between their joint probability (the frequency in which they occur together) and their marginal probabilities (the frequency in which they occur independently). PMI can be estimated empirically by considering the actual number of observations in a corpus: P M I(w, c) = log #(w, c) ? |D| #(w) ? #(c) (10) The use of PMI as a measure of association in NLP was introduced by Church and Hanks [8] and widely adopted for word similarity tasks [11, 27, 29]. Working with the PMI matrix presents some computational challenges. The rows of M PMI contain many entries of word-context pairs (w, c) that were never observed in the corpus, for which 4 P M I(w, c) = log 0 = ??. Not only is the matrix ill-defined, it is also dense, which is a major practical issue because of its huge dimensions |VW | ? |VC |. One could smooth the probabilities using, for instance, a Dirichlet prior by adding a small ?fake? count to the underlying counts matrix, rendering all word-context pairs observed. While the resulting matrix will not contain any infinite values, it will remain dense. An alternative approach, commonly used in NLP, is to replace the M PMI matrix with M0PMI , in which P M I(w, c) = 0 in cases #(w, c) = 0, resulting in a sparse matrix. We note that M0PMI is inconsistent, in the sense that observed but ?bad? (uncorrelated) word-context pairs have a negative matrix entry, while unobserved (hence worse) ones have 0 in their corresponding cell. Consider for example a pair of relatively frequent words (high P (w) and P (c)) that occur only once together. There is strong evidence that the words tend not to appear together, resulting in a negative PMI value, and hence a negative matrix entry. On the other hand, a pair of frequent words (same P (w) and P (c)) that is never observed occurring together in the corpus, will receive a value of 0. A sparse and consistent alternative from the NLP literature is to use the positive PMI (PPMI) metric, in which all negative values are replaced by 0: P P M I(w, c) = max (P M I (w, c) , 0) (11) When representing words, there is some intuition behind ignoring negative values: humans can easily think of positive associations (e.g. ?Canada? and ?snow?) but find it much harder to invent negative ones (?Canada? and ?desert?). This suggests that the perceived similarity of two words is more influenced by the positive context they share than by the negative context they share. It therefore makes some intuitive sense to discard the negatively associated contexts and mark them as ?uninformative? (0) instead.2 Indeed, it was shown that the PPMI metric performs very well on semantic similarity tasks [5]. Both M0PMI and M PPMI are well known to the NLP community. In particular, systematic comparisons of various word-context association metrics show that PMI, and more so PPMI, provide the best results for a wide range of word-similarity tasks [5, 16]. It is thus interesting that the PMI matrix emerges as the optimal solution for SGNS?s objective. 4 Alternative Word Representations As SGNS with k = 1 is attempting to implicitly factorize the familiar matrix M PMI , a natural algorithm would be to use the rows of M PPMI directly when calculating word similarities. Though PPMI is only an approximation of the original PMI matrix, it still brings the objective function very close to its optimum (see Section 5.1). In this section, we propose two alternative word representations that build upon M PPMI . 4.1 Shifted PPMI While the PMI matrix emerges from SGNS with k = 1, it was shown that different values of k can substantially improve the resulting embedding. With k > 1, the association metric in the implicitly factorized matrix is P M I(w, c) ? log(k). This suggests the use of Shifted PPMI (SPPMI), a novel association metric which, to the best of our knowledge, was not explored in the NLP and wordsimilarity communities: SP P M Ik (w, c) = max (P M I (w, c) ? log k, 0) (12) As with SGNS, certain values of k can improve the performance of M SPPMIk on different tasks. 4.2 Spectral Dimensionality Reduction: SVD over Shifted PPMI While sparse vector representations work well, there are also advantages to working with dense lowdimensional vectors, such as improved computational efficiency and, arguably, better generalization. 2 A notable exception is the case of syntactic similarity. For example, all verbs share a very strong negative association with being preceded by determiners, and past tense verbs have a very strong negative association to be preceded by ?be? verbs and modals. 5 An alternative matrix factorization method to SGNS?s stochastic gradient training is truncated Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) ? a basic algorithm from linear algebra which is used to achieve the optimal rank d factorization with respect to L2 loss [12]. SVD factorizes M into the product of three matrices U ? ? ? V > , where U and V are orthonormal and ? is a diagonal matrix of singular values. Let ?d be the diagonal matrix formed from the top d singular values, and let Ud and Vd be the matrices produced by selecting the corresponding columns from U and V . The matrix Md = Ud ? ?d ? Vd> is the matrix of rank d that best approximates the original matrix M , in the sense that it minimizes the approximation errors. That is, Md = arg minRank(M 0 )=d kM 0 ? M k2 . When using SVD, the dot-products between the rows of W = Ud ? ?d are equal to the dot-products between rows of Md . In the context of word-context matrices, the dense, d dimensional rows of W are perfect substitutes for the very high-dimensional rows of Md . Indeed another common approach in the NLP literature is factorizing the PPMI matrix M PPMI with SVD, and then taking the rows of W SVD = Ud ? ?d and C SVD = Vd as word and context representations, respectively. However, using the rows of W SVD as word representations consistently under-perform the W SGNS embeddings derived from SGNS when evaluated on semantic tasks. Symmetric SVD We note that in the SVD-based factorization, the resulting word and context matrices have very different properties. In particular, the context matrix C SVD is orthonormal while the word matrix W SVD is not. On the other hand, the factorization achieved by SGNS?s training procedure is much more ?symmetric?, in the sense that neither W W2V nor C W2V is orthonormal, and no particular bias is given to either of the matrices in the training objective. We therefore propose achieving similar symmetry with the following factorization: p p W SVD1/2 = Ud ? ?d C SVD1/2 = Vd ? ?d (13) While it is not theoretically clear why the symmetric approach is better for semantic tasks, it does work much better empirically.3 SVD versus SGNS The spectral algorithm has two computational advantages over stochastic gradient training. First, it is exact, and does not require learning rates or hyper-parameter tuning. Second, it can be easily trained on count-aggregated data (i.e. {(w, c, #(w, c))} triplets), making it applicable to much larger corpora than SGNS?s training procedure, which requires each observation of (w, c) to be presented separately. On the other hand, the stochastic gradient method has advantages as well: in contrast to SVD, it distinguishes between observed and unobserved events; SVD is known to suffer from unobserved values [17], which are very common in word-context matrices. More importantly, SGNS?s objective weighs different (w, c) pairs differently, preferring to assign correct values to frequent (w, c) pairs while allowing more error for infrequent pairs (see Section 3.2). Unfortunately, exact weighted SVD is a hard computational problem [25]. Finally, because SGNS cares only about observed (and sampled) (w, c) pairs, it does not require the underlying matrix to be a sparse one, enabling optimization of dense matrices, such as the exact P M I ? log k matrix. The same is not feasible when using SVD. An interesting middle-ground between SGNS and SVD is the use of stochastic matrix factorization (SMF) approaches, common in the collaborative filtering literature [17]. In contrast to SVD, the SMF approaches are not exact, and do require hyper-parameter tuning. On the other hand, they are better than SVD at handling unobserved values, and can integrate importance weighting for examples, much like SGNS?s training procedure. However, like SVD and unlike SGNS?s procedure, the SMF approaches work over aggregated (w, c) statistics allowing (w, c, f (w, c)) triplets as input, making the optimization objective more direct, and scalable to significantly larger corpora. SMF approaches have additional advantages over both SGNS and SVD, such as regularization, opening the way to a range of possible improvements. We leave the exploration of SMF-based algorithms for word embeddings to future work. 3 The approach can be generalized to W SVD? = Ud ?(?d )? , making ? a tunable parameter. This observation was previously made by Caron [7] and investigated in [6, 28], showing that different values of ? indeed perform better than others for various tasks. In particular, setting ? = 0 performs well for many tasks. We do not explore tuning the ? parameter in this work. 6 Method k=1 k=5 k = 15 PMI? log k 0% 0% 0% SPPMI 0.00009% 0.00004% 0.00002% d = 100 26.1% 95.8% 266% SVD d = 500 25.2% 95.1% 266% d = 1000 24.2% 94.9% 265% d = 100 31.4% 39.3% 7.80% SGNS d = 500 29.4% 36.0% 6.37% d = 1000 7.40% 7.13% 5.97% Table 1: Percentage of deviation from the optimal objective value (lower values are better). See 5.1 for details. 5 Empirical Results We compare the matrix-based algorithms to SGNS in two aspects. First, we measure how well each algorithm optimizes the objective, and then proceed to evaluate the methods on various linguistic tasks. We find that for some tasks there is a large discrepancy between optimizing the objective and doing well on the linguistic task. Experimental Setup All models were trained on English Wikipedia, pre-processed by removing non-textual elements, sentence splitting, and tokenization. The corpus contains 77.5 million sentences, spanning 1.5 billion tokens. All models were derived using a window of 2 tokens to each side of the focus word, ignoring words that appeared less than 100 times in the corpus, resulting in vocabularies of 189,533 terms for both words and contexts. To train the SGNS models, we used a modified version of word2vec which receives a sequence of pre-extracted word-context pairs [18].4 We experimented with three values of k (number of negative? samples in SGNS, shift parameter in PMI-based methods): 1, 5, 15. For SVD, we take W = Ud ? ?d as explained in Section 4. 5.1 Optimizing the Objective Now that we have an analytical solution for the objective, we can measure how well each algorithm optimizes this objective in practice. To do so, we calculated `, the value of the objective (equation 2) given each word (and context) representation.5 For sparse matrix representations, we substituted w?~ ~ c with the matching cell?s value (e.g. for SPPMI, we set w ~ ? ~c = max(PMI(w, c) ? log k, 0)). Each algorithm?s ` value was compared to `Opt , the objective when setting w ~ ? ~c = PMI(w, c) ? log k, which was shown to be optimal (Section 3.1). The percentage of deviation from the optimum is defined by (` ? `Opt )/(`Opt ) and presented in table 1. We observe that SPPMI is indeed a near-perfect approximation of the optimal solution, even though it discards a lot of information when considering only positive cells. We also note that for the factorization methods, increasing the dimensionality enables better solutions, as expected. SVD is slightly better than SGNS at optimizing the objective for d ? 500 and k = 1. However, while SGNS is able to leverage higher dimensions and reduce its error significantly, SVD fails to do so. Furthermore, SVD becomes very erroneous as k increases. We hypothesize that this is a result of the increasing number of zero-cells, which may cause SVD to prefer a factorization that is very close to the zero matrix, since SVD?s L2 objective is unweighted, and does not distinguish between observed and unobserved matrix cells. 5.2 Performance of Word Representations on Linguistic Tasks Linguistic Tasks and Datasets We evaluated the word representations on four dataset, covering word similarity and relational analogy tasks. We used two datasets to evaluate pairwise word similarity: Finkelstein et al.?s WordSim353 [13] and Bruni et al.?s MEN [4]. These datasets contain word pairs together with human-assigned similarity scores. The word vectors are evaluated by ranking the pairs according to their cosine similarities, and measuring the correlation (Spearman?s ?) with the human ratings. The two analogy datasets present questions of the form ?a is to a? as b is to b? ?, where b? is hidden, and must be guessed from the entire vocabulary. The Syntactic dataset [22] contains 8000 morpho4 http://www.bitbucket.org/yoavgo/word2vecf Since it is computationally expensive to calculate the exact objective, we approximated it. First, instead of enumerating every observed word-context pair in the corpus, we sampled 10 million such pairs, according to their prevalence. Second, instead of calculating the expectation term explicitly (as in equation 4), we sampled a negative example {(w, cN )} for each one of the 10 million ?positive? examples, using the contexts? unigram distribution, as done by SGNS?s optimization procedure (explained in Section 2). 5 7 WS353 (W ORD S IM) [13] Representation Corr. SVD (k=5) 0.691 SPPMI (k=15) 0.687 SPPMI (k=5) 0.670 SGNS (k=15) 0.666 SVD (k=15) 0.661 SVD (k=1) 0.652 SGNS (k=5) 0.644 SGNS (k=1) 0.633 SPPMI (k=1) 0.605 MEN (W ORD S IM) [4] Representation Corr. SVD (k=1) 0.735 SVD (k=5) 0.734 SPPMI (k=5) 0.721 SPPMI (k=15) 0.719 SGNS (k=15) 0.716 SGNS (k=5) 0.708 SVD (k=15) 0.694 SGNS (k=1) 0.690 SPPMI (k=1) 0.688 M IXED A NALOGIES [20] Representation Acc. SPPMI (k=1) 0.655 SPPMI (k=5) 0.644 SGNS (k=15) 0.619 SGNS (k=5) 0.616 SPPMI (k=15) 0.571 SVD (k=1) 0.567 SGNS (k=1) 0.540 SVD (k=5) 0.472 SVD (k=15) 0.341 S YNT. A NALOGIES [22] Representation Acc. SGNS (k=15) 0.627 SGNS (k=5) 0.619 SGNS (k=1) 0.59 SPPMI (k=5) 0.466 SVD (k=1) 0.448 SPPMI (k=1) 0.445 SPPMI (k=15) 0.353 SVD (k=5) 0.337 SVD (k=15) 0.208 Table 2: A comparison of word representations on various linguistic tasks. The different representations were created by three algorithms (SPPMI, SVD, SGNS) with d = 1000 and different values of k. syntactic analogy questions, such as ?good is to best as smart is to smartest?. The Mixed dataset [20] contains 19544 questions, about half of the same kind as in Syntactic, and another half of a more semantic nature, such as capital cities (?Paris is to France as Tokyo is to Japan?). After filtering questions involving out-of-vocabulary words, i.e. words that appeared in English Wikipedia less than 100 times, we remain with 7118 instances in Syntactic and 19258 instances in Mixed. The analogy questions are answered using Levy and Goldberg?s similarity multiplication method [19], which is state-of-the-art in analogy recovery: arg maxb? ?VW \{a? ,b,a} cos(b? , a? )?cos(b? , b)/(cos(b? , a)+?). The evaluation metric for the analogy questions is the percentage of questions for which the argmax result was the correct answer (b? ). Results Table 2 shows the experiments? results. On the word similarity task, SPPMI yields better results than SGNS, and SVD improves even more. However, the difference between the top PMIbased method and the top SGNS configuration in each dataset is small, and it is reasonable to say that they perform on-par. It is also evident that different values of k have a significant effect on all methods: SGNS generally works better with higher values of k, whereas SPPMI and SVD prefer lower values of k. This may be due to the fact that only positive values are retained, and high values of k may cause too much loss of information. A similar observation was made for SGNS and SVD when observing how well they optimized the objective (Section 5.1). Nevertheless, tuning k can significantly increase the performance of SPPMI over the traditional PPMI configuration (k = 1). The analogies task shows different behavior. First, SVD does not perform as well as SGNS and SPPMI. More interestingly, in the syntactic analogies dataset, SGNS significantly outperforms the rest. This trend is even more pronounced when using the additive analogy recovery method [22] (not shown). Linguistically speaking, the syntactic analogies dataset is quite different from the rest, since it relies more on contextual information from common words such as determiners (?the?, ?each?, ?many?) and auxiliary verbs (?will?, ?had?) to solve correctly. We conjecture that SGNS performs better on this task because its training procedure gives more influence to frequent pairs, as opposed to SVD?s objective, which gives the same weight to all matrix cells (see Section 3.2). 6 Conclusion We analyzed the SGNS word embedding algorithms, and showed that it is implicitly factorizing the (shifted) word-context PMI matrix M PMI ? log k using per-observation stochastic gradient updates. We presented SPPMI, a modification of PPMI inspired by our theoretical findings. Indeed, using SPPMI can improve upon the traditional PPMI matrix. Though SPPMI provides a far better solution to SGNS?s objective, it does not necessarily perform better than SGNS on linguistic tasks, as evident with syntactic analogies. We suspect that this may be related to SGNS down-weighting rare words, which PMI-based methods are known to exaggerate. We also experimented with an alternative matrix factorization method, SVD. Although SVD was relatively poor at optimizing SGNS?s objective, it performed slightly better than the other methods on word similarity datasets. However, SVD underperforms on the word-analogy task. One of the main differences between the SVD and SGNS is that SGNS performs weighted matrix factorization, which may be giving it an edge in the analogy task. As future work we suggest investigating weighted matrix factorizations of word-context matrices with PMI-based association metrics. Acknowledgements This work was partially supported by the EC-funded project EXCITEMENT (FP7ICT-287923). We thank Ido Dagan and Peter Turney for their valuable insights. 8 References [1] Marco Baroni, Georgiana Dinu, and Germ?an Kruszewski. Dont count, predict! a systematic comparison of context-counting vs. context-predicting semantic vectors. In ACL, 2014. [2] Marco Baroni and Alessandro Lenci. Distributional memory: A general framework for corpus-based semantics. Computational Linguistics, 36(4):673?721, 2010. [3] Yoshua Bengio, R?ejean Ducharme, Pascal Vincent, and Christian Jauvin. A neural probabilistic language model. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3:1137?1155, 2003. [4] Elia Bruni, Gemma Boleda, Marco Baroni, and Nam Khanh Tran. Distributional semantics in technicolor. In ACL, 2012. [5] John A Bullinaria and Joseph P Levy. Extracting semantic representations from word co-occurrence statistics: a computational study. Behavior Research Methods, 39(3):510?526, 2007. 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Word representations: a simple and general method for semi-supervised learning. In ACL, 2010. [27] Peter D. Turney. Mining the web for synonyms: PMI-IR versus LSA on TOEFL. In ECML, 2001. [28] Peter D. Turney. Domain and function: A dual-space model of semantic relations and compositions. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 44:533?585, 2012. [29] Peter D. Turney and Patrick Pantel. From frequency to meaning: Vector space models of semantics. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 2010. 9
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Scaling-up Importance Sampling for Markov Logic Networks Vibhav Gogate Department of Computer Science University of Texas at Dallas vgogate@hlt.utdallas.edu Deepak Venugopal Department of Computer Science University of Texas at Dallas dxv021000@utdallas.edu Abstract Markov Logic Networks (MLNs) are weighted first-order logic templates for generating large (ground) Markov networks. Lifted inference algorithms for them bring the power of logical inference to probabilistic inference. These algorithms operate as much as possible at the compact first-order level, grounding or propositionalizing the MLN only as necessary. As a result, lifted inference algorithms can be much more scalable than propositional algorithms that operate directly on the much larger ground network. Unfortunately, existing lifted inference algorithms suffer from two interrelated problems, which severely affects their scalability in practice. First, for most real-world MLNs having complex structure, they are unable to exploit symmetries and end up grounding most atoms (the grounding problem). Second, they suffer from the evidence problem, which arises because evidence breaks symmetries, severely diminishing the power of lifted inference. In this paper, we address both problems by presenting a scalable, lifted importance sampling-based approach that never grounds the full MLN. Specifically, we show how to scale up the two main steps in importance sampling: sampling from the proposal distribution and weight computation. Scalable sampling is achieved by using an informed, easy-to-sample proposal distribution derived from a compressed MLN-representation. Fast weight computation is achieved by only visiting a small subset of the sampled groundings of each formula instead of all of its possible groundings. We show that our new algorithm yields an asymptotically unbiased estimate. Our experiments on several MLNs clearly demonstrate the promise of our approach. 1 Introduction Markov Logic Networks (MLNs) [5] are powerful template models that define Markov networks by instantiating first-order formulas with objects from its domain. Designing scalable inference for MLNs is a challenging task because as the domain-size increases, the Markov network underlying the MLN can become extremely large. Lifted inference algorithms [1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 13, 15, 18] try to tackle this challenge by exploiting symmetries in the relational representation. However, current lifted inference approaches face two interrelated problems. First, most of these techniques have the grounding problem, i.e., unless the MLN has a specific symmetric, liftable structure [3, 4, 9], most algorithms tend to ground most formulas in the MLN and this is infeasible for large domains. Second, lifted inference algorithms have an evidence problem, i.e., even if the MLN is liftable, in the presence of arbitrary evidence, symmetries are broken and once again, lifted inference is just as scalable as propositional inference [16]. Both these problems are severe because, often, practical applications require arbitrarily structured MLNs which can handle arbitrary evidence. To handle this problem, a promising approach is to approximate/bias the MLN distribution such that inference is less expensive on this biased MLN. This idea has been explored in recent work such as [16] which uses the idea of introducing new symmetries or [19] which uses unsupervised learning to reduce the objects in the 1 domain. However, in both these approaches, it may turn out that for certain cases, the bias skews the MLN distribution to a large extent. Here, we propose a general-purpose importance sampling based algorithm that retains the scalability of the aforementioned biased approaches but has theoretical guarantees, i.e., it yields asymptotically unbiased estimates. Importance sampling, a widely used sampling approach has two steps, namely, we first sample from a proposal distribution and next, for each sample, we compute its importance weight. It turns out that for MLNs, both steps can be computationally expensive. Therefore, we scale-up each of these steps. Specifically, to scale-up step one, based on the recently proposed MLN approximation approach [19], we design an informed proposal distribution using a ?compressed? representation of the ground MLN. We then compile a symbolic counting formula where each symbol is lifted, i.e., it represents multiple assignments to multiple ground atoms. The compilation allows us to sample each lifted symbol efficiently using Gibbs sampling. Importantly, the state space of the sampler depends upon the number of symbols allowing us to trade-off accuracy-of-the-proposal with efficiency. Step two requires iterating over all ground formulas to compute the number of groundings satisfied by a sample. Though this operation can be made space-efficient (for bounded formula-length), i.e., we can go over each grounding independently, the time-complexity is prohibitively large and is equivalent to the grounding problem. For example, consider a simple relationship, Friends(x, y) ? Likes(y, z) ? Likes(x, z). If the domain-size of each variable is 100, then to obtain the importance weight of a single sample, we need to process 1 million ground formulas which is practically infeasible. Therefore, to make this weight-computation step feasible, we propose the following approach. We use a second sampler to sample ground formulas in the MLN and compute the importance weight based on the sampled groundings. We show that this method yields asymptotically unbiased estimates. Further, by taking advantage of first-order structure, we reduce the variance of estimates in many cases through Rao-Blackwellization [11]. We perform experiments on varied MLN structures (Alchemy benchmarks [10]) with arbitrary evidence to illustrate the generality of our approach. We show that using our approach, we can systematically trade-off accuracy with efficiency and can scale-up inference to extremely large domain-sizes which cannot be handled by state-of-the-art MLN systems such as Alchemy. 2 2.1 Preliminaries Markov Logic In this paper, we assume a strict subset of first-order logic called finite Herbrand logic. Thus, we assume that we have no function constants and finitely many object constants. We also assume that each argument of each predicate is typed and can only be assigned to a fixed subset of constants. By extension, each logical variable in each formula is also typed. The domain of a term x in any formula refers to the set of constants that can be substituted for x and is represented as ?x . We further assume that all first-order formulas are disjunctive (clauses), have no free logical variables (namely, each logical variable is quantified), have only universally quantified logical variables (CNF). Note that all first-order formulas can be easily converted to this form. A ground atom is an atom that contains no logical variables. Markov logic extends FOL by softening the hard constraints expressed by the formulas. A soft formula or a weighted formula is a pair (f, w) where f is a formula in FOL and w is a real-number. A MLN denoted by M, is a set of weighted formulas (fi , wi ). Given a set of constants that represent objects in the domain, an MLN defines a Markov network or a log-linear model. The Markov network is obtained by grounding the weighted first-order knowledge base and represents the following probability distribution. X 1 PM (?) = exp wi N (fi , ?) Z(M) i ! (1) where ? is a world, N (fi , ?) is the number of groundings of fi that evaluate to True in the world ? and Z(M) is a normalization constant or the partition function. In this paper, we assume that the input MLN to our algorithm is in normal form [9, 12]. A normal MLN [9] is an MLN that satisfies the following two properties: (1) There are no constants in any formula, and (2) If two distinct atoms with the same predicate symbol have variables x and y in 2 the same position then ?x = ?y . An important distinction here is that, unlike in previous work on lifted inference that use normal forms [7, 9] which require the MLN along with the associated evidence to be normalized, here we only require the MLN in normal form. This is important because normalizing the MLN along with evidence typically requires grounding the MLN and blows-up its size. In contrast, normalizing without evidence typically does not change the MLN. For instance, in all the benchmarks in Alchemy, the MLNs are already normalized. Two main inference problems in MLNs are computing the partition function and the marginal probabilities of query atoms given evidence. In this paper, we focus on the latter. 2.2 Importance Sampling Importance sampling [6] is a standard sampling-based approach, where we draw samples from a proposal distribution H that is easier to sample compared to sampling from the true distribution P . Each sample is then weighted with its importance weight to correct for the fact that it is drawn from the wrong distribution. To compute the marginal probabilities from the weighted samples, we use the following estimator. PT ?Q? (?s(t) )w(?s(t) ) 0 ? P (Q) = t=1 (2) PT s(t) ) t=1 w(? ? in ?s(t) where ?s(t) is the tth sample drawn from H, ?Q? (?s(t) ) = 1 iff the query atom Q is assigned Q and 0 otherwise, w(?s(t) ) is the importance weight of the sample given by P (? s(t) ) . H(? s(t) ) ? computed from Eq. (2) is an asymptotically unbiased estimate of PM (Q), ? namely as T ? ? P 0 (Q) 0 ? ? P (Q) almost surely converges to P (Q). Eq. (2) is called as a ratio estimate or a normalized estimate because we only need to know each sample?s importance weight up to a normalizing constant. We will leverage this property throughout the paper. 2.3 Compressed MLN Representation Recently, we [19] proposed an approach to generate a ?compressed? approximation of the MLN using unsupervised learning. Specifically, for each unique domain in the MLN, the objects in that domain are clustered into groups based on approximate symmetries. To learn the clusters effectively, we use standard clustering algorithms and a distance function based on the evidence structure presented to the MLN. The distance function is constructed to ensure that objects that are approximately symmetrical to each other (from an inference perspective) are placed in a common cluster. Formally, given a MLN M, let D denote the set of all domains in M. That is, D ? D is a set of objects that belong to the same domain. To compress M, we consider each D ? D independently and learn a new domain D0 where |D0 | ? D and g : D ? D0 is a surjective mapping, i.e., ? ? ? D0 , ? C ? D such that g(C) = ?. In other words, each cluster of objects is replaced by its cluster center in the reduced domain. In this paper, we utilize the above approach to build an informed proposal distribution for importance sampling. 3 Scalable Importance Sampling In this section, we describe the two main steps in our new importance sampling algorithm: (a) constructing and sampling the proposal distribution, and (b) computing the sample weight. We carefully design each step, ensuring that we never ground the full MLN. As a result, the computational complexity of our method is much smaller than existing importance sampling approaches [8]. 3.1 Constructing and Sampling the Proposal Distribution ? be We first compress the domains of the given MLN, say M, based on the method in [19]. Let M the network obtained by grounding M with its reduced domains (which corresponds to the cluster ? and MG centers) and let MG be the ground Markov network of M using the original domains. M 3 Formulas: R1 (?1 ) ? S(?1 , ?3 ), w; R1 (?2 ) ? S(?2 , ?3 ), w R1 (?1 ) ? S(?1 , ?4 ), w; R1 (?2 ) ? S(?2 , ?4 ), w Domains: ?(?1 ) = {A1 , B1 }; ?(?2 ) = {C1 , D1 } ?(?3 ) = {A2 , B2 }; and ?(?4 ) = {C2 , D2 } Formulas: R(x) ? S(x, y), w Domains: ?x = {A1 , B1 , C1 , D1 } ?y = {A2 , B2 , C2 , D2 } (a) (b) ? obtained from M by grounding each logical Figure 1: (a) an example MLN M and (b) MLN M variable in M by the cluster centers ?1 , . . ., ?4 . ? as an MLN, in which the logical variables are the cluster are related as follows. We can think of M centers. If we set the domain of each logical variable corresponding to cluster center ? ? D0 to ?(?) ? is MG . Figure 1 shows where ?(?) = {C ? D|g(C) = ?}, then the ground Markov network of M ? an example MLN M and its corresponding compressed MLN M. Notice that the Markov network ? obtained by grounding M is the same as the one obtained by grounding M. ? Let M ? contain K ? predicates, for which we Next, we describe how to generate samples from M. assume some ordering. Let E and U represent the counts of true (evidence) and unknown ground atoms respectively. For instance, Ei ? E represents the number of true ground atoms corresponding ? To keep the equations more readable, we assume that we only have to the i-th predicate in M. positive evidence (i.e., an assertion that the ground atom is true). Note that it is straightforward to extend the equations to the general case in which we have both positive and negative evidences. ? denoted by fj , contain the atoms p1 , . . . pk Without loss of generality, let the j-th formula in M, where pi is an instance of the pi -th predicate and if i ? m, it has a positive sign else it has a negative sign. The task is to now count the total number of satisfied groundings in fj symbolically without actually going over the ground formulas. Unfortunately, this task is in #P. Therefore, we make the following approximation. Let N (p1 , . . . pk ) denote the number of the satisfied groundings of fj based on the assignments to all groundings of predicates indexed by p1 , . . . pk . Then, we will approximate Pk N (p1 , . . . pk ) using i=1 N (pi ), thereby independently counting the number of satisfied groundings for each predicate. Clearly, our approximation overestimates the number of satisfied formulas because it ignores the joint dependencies between atoms in f . To compensate for this, we scale-down each count by a scaling factor (?) which is the ratio of the actual number of ground formulas in f to the assumed number of ground formulas. Next, we define these counting equations formally. Given the j-th formula fj and a set of indexes k, where k ? k corresponds to the k-th atom in fj , let #Gfj (k) denote the number of ground formulas in fj if all the terms in all atoms specified by k are replaced by constants. For instance, in the example shown in Fig. 1, let f be R1 (?1 ) ? S1 (?1 , ?3 ), then, #Gf (?) = 4, #Gf ({1}) = 2 and #Gf ({2}) = 1. We now count fj ?s satisfied groundings symbolically as follows. m X Sj0 = ? Epi #Gfj ({i}) (3) i=1 where ? = #Gfj (?) m#Gfj (?) = 1 m Sj = ? and Sj0 is rounded to the nearest integer. m X i=1 k X S?pi #Gfj ({i}) + ! (Upi ? S?pi )#Gfj ({i}) (4) i=m+1 0 max(#Gfj (?)?Sj ,0) where ? = , S?pi is a lifted symbol representing the total number of true ground k#Gfj (?) atoms (among the unknown atoms) of the pi -th predicate and Sj is rounded to the nearest integer. The symbolic (un-normalized) proposal probability is given by the following equation. ? ? C X ? E) = exp ? H(S, wj Sj ? j=1 4 (5) Algorithm 1: Compute-Marginals ? ?, Evidence E, Query Q, sampling threshold ?, thinning parameter p, iterations T Input: M, Output: Marginal probabilities P for Q begin Construct the symbolic counting formula Eq. (5) // Outer Sampler for t = 1 to T do ? (t) using Gibbs sampling on Eq. (5) Sample S ? (t) After burn-in, for every p-th sample, generate ?s(t) from S for each formula fi do // Inner Sampler for c = 1 to ? do // Rao-Blackwellization fi0 = Partially ground formula created by sampling assignments to shared variables in fi Compute the satisfied groundings in fi0 Compute the sample weight using Eq. (7) Update the marginal probability estimates using Eq. (2) ? and wj is the weight of the j-th formula. where C is the number of formulas in M ? using randomized Gibbs Given the symbolic equation Eq. (5), we sample the set of lifted symbols, S, sampling. For this, we initialize all symbols to a random value. We then choose a random symbol S?i ?i ) yielding a conditional distribution on S?i and substitute it in Eq. (5) for each value between 0 to (U ? ?i , where S ? ?i refers to all symbols other than the ith one. We then sample given assignments to S ?  from this conditional distribution by taking into account that there are Uvi different assignments corresponding to the v th value in the distribution, which corresponds to setting exactly v groundings of the ith predicate to True. After the Markov chain has mixed, to reduce the dependency between successive Gibbs samples, we thin the samples and only use every p-th sample for estimation. ? namely Note that during the process of sampling from the proposal, we only had to compute M, ground the original MLN with the cluster-centers. Therefore, the representation is lifted because we ? This helps us scale up the sampling step to large domains-sizes (since we can do not ground M. control the number of clusters). 3.2 Computing the Importance Weight In order to compute the marginal probabilities as in Eq. (2), given a sample, we need to compute (up to a normalization constant) the weight of that sample. It is easy to see that a sample from the proposal (assignments on all symbols) has multiple possible assignments in the original MLN. For instance, suppose in our running example in Fig. 1, the symbol corresponding to R(?1 ) has a value equal to 1, this corresponds to 2 different assignments in M, either R(A1) is true or R(B1) is true. QK? ?i  Formally, a sample from the proposal has i=1 U ?i different assignments in the true distribution. S We assume that all these assignments are equi-probable (have the same weight) in the proposal. Thus, to compute the (un-normalized) probability of a sample w.r.t M, we first convert the assignments on ? (t) into one of the equi-probable assignments ?s by randomly choosing one of the a specific sample, S assignments. Then, we compute the (un-normalized) probability P (?s, E). The importance weight (upto a multiplicative constant) for the t-th sample is given by the ratio, ? (t) , E) = w(S P (?s(t) , E) ? (t) , E) H(S (6) Plugging-in the weight computed by Eq. (6) into Eq. (2) yields an asymptotically unbiased estimate of the query marginal probabilities [11]. However, in the case of MLNs, computing Eq. (6) turns out to be a hard problem. Specifically, to compute P? (?s(t) , E), given a sample, we need to go over each ground formula in M and check if it is satisfied or not. The combined-complexity [17] (domain-size as well as formula-size are assumed to be variable) of this operation for each formula 5 is #P-complete (cf. [5]). However, the data complexity (fixed formula-size, variable domain-size) is polynomial. That is, for k variables in a formula where the domain-size of each variable is d, the complexity is clearly O(dk ) to go over every grounding. However, in the case of MLNs, notice that a polynomial data-complexity is equivalent to the complexity of the grounding-problem, which is precisely what we are trying to avoid and is therefore intractable for all practical purposes. To make this weight-computation step tractable, we use an additional sampler which samples a bounded number of groundings of a formula in M and approximates the importance weight based on these sampled groundings. Formally, Let Ui be a proposal distribution defined on the groundings of the i-th formula. Here, we define this distribution as a product of |Vi | uniform distributions where Vi = Vi1 . . . Vik is the set of distinct Q|V | variables in the i-th formula. Formally, Ui = j=1i Uij , where Uij is a uniform distribution over the domain-size of Vik . A sample from Ui contains a grounding for every variable in the i-th formula. Using this, we can approximate the importance weight using the following equation.   (t) PM Ni0 (? s(t) ,E,? ui ) exp i=1 wi ? Q|Vi | U ij j=1 (t) ?i ) = w(?s(t) , E, u (7) (t) ? H(S , E) (t) ? i are ? groundings of the i-th formula drawn from Ui where M is the number of formulas in M, u (t) (t) ? i ) is the count of satisfied groundings in u ? i groundings of the i-th formula. and Ni0 (?s(t) , E, u Proposition 1. Using the importance weights shown in Eq. (7) in a normalized estimator (see Eq. (2)) yields an asymptotically unbiased estimate of the query marginals, i.e., as the number of samples, T ? ?, the estimated marginal probabilities almost surely converge to the true marginal probabilities. We skip the proof for lack of space, but the idea is that for each unique sample of the outer sampler, each of the importance weight estimates computed using a subset of formula groundings converge towards the true importance weights (if all groundings of formulas were used). Specifically, the weights computed by the ?inner? sampler by considering partial groundings of formulas add up to the true weight as T ? ? and therefore each importance weight is asymptotically unbiased. Eq. (2) is thus a ratio of asymptotically unbiased quantities and the above proposition follows. We now show how we can leverage MLN structure to improve the weight estimate in Eq. (7). Specifically, we Rao-Blackwellize the ?inner? sampler as follows. We partition the variables in each formula into two sets, V1 and V2 , such that we sample a grounding for the variables in V1 and for each sample, we tractably compute the exact number of satisfied groundings for all possible groundings to V2 . We illustrate this with the following example. Example 1. Consider a formula ?R(x, y) ? S(y, z) where each variable has domain-size equal to d. The data-complexity of computing the satisfied groundings in this formula is clearly d3 . However, for any specific value of y, say y = A, the satisfied groundings in this formula can be computed in closed form as, n1 d + n2 d ? n1 n2 , where n1 is the number of false groundings of R(x, A) and n2 is the number of true groundings in S(A, z). Computing this for all possible values of y has a complexity of O(d2 ). Generalizing the above example, for any formula f with variables V, we say that V 0 ? V is shared, if it occurs more than once in that formula. For instance, in the above example y is a shared variable. Sarkhel et. al [14] showed that for a formula f where no terms are shared, given an assignment to its ground atoms, it is always possible to compute the number of satisfied groundings of f in closed form. Using this, we have the following proposition. Proposition 2. Given assignments to all ground atoms of a formula f with no shared terms, the combined complexity of computing the number of satisfied groundings of f is O(dK ), where d is an upper-bound on the domain-size of the non-shared variables in f and K is the maximum number of non-shared variables in an atom of f . ? and ? are provided as input. First, Algorithm 1 illustrates our complete sampler. It assumes M we construct the symbolic equation Eq. (5) that computes the weight of the proposal. In the outer sampler, we sample the symbols from Eq. (5) using Gibbs sampling. After the chain has mixed, for each sample from the outer sampler, for every formula in M, we construct an inner sampler that uses Rao-Blackwelization to approximate the sample weight. Specifically, for a formula f , we sample 6 0.8 0.45 Ns=40 Ns=10 Ns=5 0.7 Ns=32 Ns=16 Ns=10 0.4 0.6 Error Error 0.35 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.25 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.15 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 10 20 30 Time (a) Smokers 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 90 100 Time (b) Relation 0.3 0.35 Ns=400 Ns=56 Ns=16 Ns=150 Ns=60 0.3 0.25 Error Error 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.05 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 10 Time (c) HMM 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Time (d) LogReq Figure 2: Tradeoff between computational efficiency and accuracy. The y-axis plots the average KL-divergence between the true marginals and the approximated ones for different values of Ns . Larger Ns implies weaker proposal, faster sampling. For this experiment, we set ? (sampling bound) to 0.2. Note that changing ? did not affect our results very significantly. an assignment to each non-shared variable to create a partially ground formula, f 0 and compute the exact number of satisfied groundings in f 0 . Finally, we compute the sample weight as in Eq. (7) and update the normalized estimator in Eq. (2). 4 Experiments We run two sets of experiments. First, to illustrate the trade-off between accuracy and complexity, we experiment with MLNs which can be solved exactly. Our test MLNs include Smokers and HMM (with few states) from the Alchemy website [10] and two additional MLNs, Relation (R(x, y) ? S(y, z)), LogReq (randomly generated formulas with singletons). Next, to illustrate scalability, we use two Alchemy benchmarks that are far larger, namely Hypertext classification with 1 million ground formulas and Entity Resolution (ER) with 8 million ground formulas. For all MLNs, we randomly set 25% groundings as true and 25% as false. For clustering, we used the scheme in [19] with KMeans++ as the clustering method. For Gibbs sampling, we set the thinning parameter to 5 and use a burn-in of 50 samples. We ran all experiments on a quad-core, 6GB RAM, Ubuntu laptop. Fig. 2 shows our results on the first set of experiments, where the y-axis plots the average KLdivergence between the true marginals for the query atoms and the marginals generated by our M| algorithm. The values are shown for varying values of Ns = |G , i.e. the ratio between the ground |GM ?| MLN-size and the proposal MLN-size. Intuitively, Ns indicates the amount by which M has been compressed to form the proposal. As illustrated in Fig. 2, as Ns increases, the accuracy becomes lower in all cases because the proposal is a weaker approximation of the true distribution. However, at the same time, the complexity decreases allowing us to trade-off accuracy with efficiency. Further, the MLN-structure also determines the proposal accuracy. For example, LogReg that contains singletons yields an accurate estimate even for high values of Ns , while, for Relation, a smaller Ns yields such 7 (Ns , ?) (210 ,0.1) (210 ,0.25) (210 ,0.5) (25 ,0.1) (25 ,0.25) (25 ,0.5) (23 ,0.1) (23 ,0.25) (23 ,0.5) C-Time(secs) 3 3 3 8 8 8 15 15 15 (Ns , ?) (10K,0.1) (10K,0.25) (10K,0.5) (1K,0.1) (1K,0.25) (1K,0.5) (25 ,0.1) (25 ,0.25) (25 ,0.5) I-SRate 1200 250 150 650 180 100 600 150 90 (a) Hypertext (1M groundings) C-Time(secs) 25 65 65 65 65 65 150 150 150 I-SRate 125 45 15 125 45 15 15 8 4 (b) ER (8M groundings) Figure 3: Scalability experiments. C-Time indicates the time in seconds to generate the proposal. I-SRATE is the sampling rate measured as samples/minute. accuracy. This is because, singletons have symmetries [4, 7] which are exploited by the clustering scheme when building the proposal. Fig. 3 shows the results on the second set of experiments where we measure the computational-time required by our algorithm during all its operational steps namely proposal creation, sampling and weight estimation. Note that, for both the MLNs used here, we tried to compare the results with Alchemy, but we were unable to get any results due to the grounding problem. As Fig. 3 shows, we could scale to these large domains because, the complexity of sampling the proposal is feasible even when generating the ground MLN is infeasible. Specifically, we show the time taken to generate the proposal distribution (C-Time) and the the number of weighted samples generated per minute during inference (I-SRate). As expected, decreasing Ns , or increasing ? (sampling bound) lowers I-SRate because the complexity of sampling increases. At the same time, we also expect the quality of the samples to be better. Importantly, these results show that by addressing the evidence/grounding problems, we can process large, arbitrarily structured MLNs/evidence without running out of memory in a reasonable amount of time. 5 Conclusion Inference algorithms in Markov logic encounter two interrelated problems hindering scalability ? the grounding and evidence problems. Here, we proposed an approach based on importance sampling that avoids these problems in every step of its operation. Further, we showed that our approach yields asymptotically unbiased estimates. Our evaluation showed that our approach can systematically trade-off complexity with accuracy and can therefore scale-up to large domains. Future work includes, clustering strategies using better similarity measures such as graph-based similarity, applying our technique to MCMC algorithms, etc. Acknowledgments This work was supported in part by the AFRL under contract number FA8750-14-C-0021, by the ARO MURI grant W911NF-08-1-0242, and by the DARPA Probabilistic Programming for Advanced Machine Learning Program under AFRL prime contract number FA8750-14-C-0005. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or official policies, either expressed or implied, of DARPA, AFRL, ARO or the US government. References [1] Babak Ahmadi, Kristian Kersting, Martin Mladenov, and Sriraam Natarajan. Exploiting symmetries for scaling loopy belief propagation and relational training. Machine Learning, 92(1):91?132, 2013. 8 [2] H. Bui, T. Huynh, and R. de Salvo Braz. Exact lifted inference with distinct soft evidence on every object. In AAAI, 2012. [3] R. de Salvo Braz. Lifted First-Order Probabilistic Inference. PhD thesis, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL, 2007. [4] Guy Van den Broeck. On the completeness of first-order knowledge compilation for lifted probabilistic inference. In NIPS, pages 1386?1394, 2011. [5] P. Domingos and D. Lowd. Markov Logic: An Interface Layer for Artificial Intelligence. Morgan & Claypool, San Rafael, CA, 2009. [6] J. Geweke. Bayesian inference in econometric models using Monte Carlo integration. Econometrica, 57(6):1317?39, 1989. [7] V. Gogate and P. Domingos. Probabilistic Theorem Proving. In Proceedings of the TwentySeventh Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, pages 256?265. AUAI Press, 2011. [8] V. Gogate, A. Jha, and D. Venugopal. Advances in Lifted Importance Sampling. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Sixth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2012. [9] A. Jha, V. Gogate, A. Meliou, and D. Suciu. Lifted Inference from the Other Side: The tractable Features. In Proceedings of the 24th Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), pages 973?981, 2010. [10] S. Kok, M. Sumner, M. Richardson, P. Singla, H. Poon, D. Lowd, J. Wang, and P. Domingos. The Alchemy System for Statistical Relational AI. Technical report, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 2008. http://alchemy.cs.washington.edu. [11] J. S. Liu. Monte Carlo Strategies in Scientific Computing. Springer Publishing Company, Incorporated, 2001. [12] B. Milch, L. S. Zettlemoyer, K. Kersting, M. Haimes, and L. P. Kaelbling. Lifted Probabilistic Inference with Counting Formulas. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Third AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pages 1062?1068, 2008. [13] D. Poole. First-Order Probabilistic Inference. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pages 985?991, Acapulco, Mexico, 2003. Morgan Kaufmann. [14] Somdeb Sarkhel, Deepak Venugopal, Parag Singla, and Vibhav Gogate. Lifted MAP inference for markov logic networks. In Proceedings of the Seventeenth International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, AISTATS, pages 859?867, 2014. [15] G. Van den Broeck, N. Taghipour, W. Meert, J. Davis, and L. De Raedt. Lifted Probabilistic Inference by First-Order Knowledge Compilation. In Proceedings of the Twenty Second International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pages 2178?2185, 2011. [16] Guy van den Broeck and Adnan Darwiche. On the complexity and approximation of binary evidence in lifted inference. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 2868?2876, 2013. [17] Moshe Y. Vardi. The complexity of relational query languages (extended abstract). In Proceedings of the Fourteenth Annual ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing, pages 137?146, 1982. [18] D. Venugopal and V. Gogate. On lifting the gibbs sampling algorithm. In Proceedings of the 26th Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), pages 1664?1672, 2012. [19] Deepak Venugopal and Vibhav Gogate. Evidence-based clustering for scalable inference in markov logic. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases - European Conference, ECML PKDD 2014, Nancy, France, September 15-19, 2014. Proceedings, Part III, pages 258?273, 2014. 9
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Sparse Random Features Algorithm as Coordinate Descent in Hilbert Space Ian E.H. Yen 1 Ting-Wei Lin 2 Shou-De Lin 2 Pradeep Ravikumar 1 Inderjit S. Dhillon 1 Department of Computer Science 1: University of Texas at Austin, 2: National Taiwan University 1: {ianyen,pradeepr,inderjit}@cs.utexas.edu, 2: {b97083,sdlin}@csie.ntu.edu.tw Abstract In this paper, we propose a Sparse Random Features algorithm, which learns a sparse non-linear predictor by minimizing an ?1 -regularized objective function over the Hilbert Space induced from a kernel function. By interpreting the algorithm as Randomized Coordinate Descent in an infinite-dimensional space, we show the proposed approach converges to a solution within ?-precision of that using an exact kernel method, by drawing O(1/?) random features, in contrast to the O(1/?2 ) convergence achieved by current Monte-Carlo analyses of Random Features. In our experiments, the Sparse Random Feature algorithm obtains a sparse solution that requires less memory and prediction time, while maintaining comparable performance on regression and classification tasks. Moreover, as an approximate solver for the infinite-dimensional ?1 -regularized problem, the randomized approach also enjoys better convergence guarantees than a Boosting approach in the setting where the greedy Boosting step cannot be performed exactly. 1 Introduction Kernel methods have become standard for building non-linear models from simple feature representations, and have proven successful in problems ranging across classification, regression, structured prediction and feature extraction [16, 20]. A caveat however is that they are not scalable as the number of training samples increases. In particular, the size of the models produced by kernel methods scale linearly with the number of training samples, even for sparse kernel methods like support vector machines [17]. This makes the corresponding training and prediction computationally prohibitive for large-scale problems. A line of research has thus been devoted to kernel approximation methods that aim to preserve predictive performance, while maintaining computational tractability. Among these, Random Features has attracted considerable recent interest due to its simplicity and efficiency [2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 6]. Since first proposed in [2], and extended by several works [3, 4, 5, 10], the Random Features approach is a sampling based approximation to the kernel function, where by drawing D features from the distribution induced from the kernel ? function, one can guarantee uniform convergence of approximation error to the order of O(1/ D). On the flip side, such a rate of convergence suggests that in order to achieve high precision, one might need a large number of random features, which might lead to model sizes even larger than that of the vanilla kernel method. One approach to remedy this problem would be to employ feature selection techniques to prevent the model size from growing linearly with D. A simple way to do so would be by adding ?1 regularization to the objective function, so that one can simultaneously increase the number of random features D, while selecting a compact subset of them with non-zero weight. However, the resulting algorithm cannot be justified by existing analyses of Random Features, since the Representer theorem does not hold for the ?1 -regularized problem [15, 16]. In other words, since the prediction 1 cannot be expressed as a linear combination of kernel evaluations, a small error in approximating the kernel function cannot correspondingly guarantee a small prediction error. In this paper, we propose a new interpretation of Random Features that justifies its usage with ?1 -regularization ? yielding the Sparse Random Features algorithm. In particular, we show that the Sparse Random Feature algorithm can be seen as Randomized Coordinate Descent (RCD) in the Hilbert Space induced from the kernel, and by taking D steps of coordinate descent, one can achieve a solution comparable to exact kernel methods within O(1/D) precision in terms of the objective function. Note that the surprising facet of this analysis is that in the finite-dimensional case, the iteration complexity of RCD increases with number of dimensions [18], which would trivially yield a bound going to infinity for our infinite-dimensional problem. In our experiments, the Sparse Random Features algorithm obtains a sparse solution that requires less memory and prediction time, while maintaining comparable performance on regression and classification tasks with various kernels. Note that our technique is complementary to that proposed in [10], which aims to reduce the cost of evaluating and storing basis functions, while our goal is to reduce the number of basis functions in a model. Another interesting aspect of our algorithm is that our infinite-dimensional ?1 -regularized objective is also considered in the literature of Boosting [7, 8], which can be interpreted as greedy coordinate descent in the infinite-dimensional space. As an approximate solver for the ?1 -regularized problem, we compare our randomized approach to the boosting approach in theory and also in experiments. As we show, for basis functions that do not allow exact greedy search, a randomized approach enjoys better guarantees. 2 Problem Setup We are interested in estimating a prediction function f : X ?Y from training data set D = {(xn , yn )}N n=1 , (xn , yn ) ? X ? Y by solving an optimization problem over some Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) H: f ? = argmin f ?H N ? 1 ? ?f ?2H + L(f (xn ), yn ), 2 N n=1 (1) where L(z, y) is a convex loss function with Lipschitz-continuous derivative satisfying |L? (z1 , y) ? L? (z2 , y)| ? ?|z1 ? z2 |, which includes several standard loss functions such as the square-loss L(z, y) = 21 (z ? y)2 , square-hinge loss L(z, y) = max(1 ? zy, 0)2 and logistic loss L(z, y) = log(1 + exp(?yz)). 2.1 Kernel and Feature Map There are two ways in practice to specify the space H. One is via specifying a positive-definite kernel k(x, y) that encodes similarity between instances, and where H can be expressed as the completion of the space spanned by {k(x, ?)}x?X , that is, { } K ? H = f (?) = ?i k(xi , ?) | ?i ? R, xi ? X . i=1 The other way is to find an explicit feature map {??h (x)}h?H , where each h ? H defines a basis function ??h (x) : X ? R. The RKHS H can then be defined as { } ? 2 ? ? H = f (?) = w(h)?h (?)dh = ?w, ?(?)?H | ?f ?H < ? , (2) h?H where w(h) is a weight distribution over the basis {?h (x)}h?H . By Mercer?s theorem [1], every positive-definite kernel k(x, y) has a decomposition s.t. ? ? ? k(x, y) = p(h)?h (x)?h (y)dh = ??(x), ?(y)? (3) H, ? h?H ? = ?p ? ?. However, the decomposition where p(h) ? 0 and ??h (.) = p(h)?h (.), denoted as ? is not unique. One can derive multiple decompositions from the same kernel k(x, y) based on 2 different sets of basis functions {?h (x)}h?H . For example, in [2], the Laplacian kernel k(x, y) = exp(???x ? y?1 ) can be decomposed through both the Fourier basis and the Random Binning basis, while in [7], the Laplacian kernel can be obtained from the integrating of an infinite number of decision trees. On the other hand, multiple kernels can be derived from the same set of basis functions via different distribution p(h). For example, { } in [2, 3], a general decomposition method using Fourier basis functions ?? (x) = cos(? T x) ??Rd was proposed to find feature map for any shift-invariant kernel of the form k(x ? y), where the feature maps (3) of different kernels k(?) differ only in the distribution p(?) obtained from the Fourier transform of k(?). Similarly, [5] proposed decomposition based on polynomial basis for any dot-product kernel of the form k(?x, y?). 2.2 Random Features as Monte-Carlo Approximation The standard kernel method, often referred to as the ?kernel trick,? solves problem (1) through ? the Representer Theorem [15, 16], which H lies in { states?that the optimal decision function f ? } N the span of training samples HD = f (?) = n=1 ?n k(xn , ?) | ?n ? R, (xn , yn ) ? D , which reduces the infinite-dimensional problem (1) to a finite-dimensional problem with N variables {?n }N n=1 . However, it is known that even for loss functions with dual-sparsity (e.g. hinge-loss), the number of non-zero ?n increases linearly with data size [17]. Random Features has been proposed as a kernel approximation method [2, 3, 10, 5], where a MonteCarlo approximation k(xi , xj ) = Ep(h) [?h (xi )?h (xj )] ? D 1 ? ?hk (xi )?hk (xj ) = z(xi )T z(xj ) D (4) k=1 is used to approximate (3), so that the solution to (1) can be obtained by wRF = argmin w?RD N ? 1 ? ?w?2 + L(wT z(xn ), yn ). 2 N n=1 (5) The corresponding approximation error N N ? ? T wRF z(x) ? f ? (x) = ?nRF z(xn )T z(x) ? ?n? k(xn , x) , n=1 (6) n=1 as proved in [2,Appendix B], can be bounded by ? given D = ?(1/?2 ) number of random features, which is a direct consequence of the uniform convergence of the sampling approximation (4). Unfortunately, the rate of convergence suggests that to achieve small approximation error ?, one needs significant amount of random features, and since the model size of (5) grows linearly with D, such an algorithm might not obtain a sparser model than kernel method. On the other hand, the ?1 -regularized Random-Feature algorithm we are proposing aims to minimize loss with a selected subset of random feature that neither grows linearly with D nor with N . However, (6) does not hold for ?1 -regularization, and thus one cannot transfer guarantee from kernel approximation (4) to the learned decision function. 3 Sparse Random Feature as Coordinate Descent In this section, we present the Sparse Random Features algorithm and analyze its convergence by interpreting it as a fully-corrective randomized? coordinate descent in a Hilbert space. Given a feature map of orthogonal basic functions {??h (x) = p(h)?h (x)}h?H , the optimization program (1) can be written as the infinite-dimensional optimization problem min w?H N 1 ? ? ? n )?H , yn ). ?w?22 + L(?w, ?(x 2 N n=1 3 (7) Instead of directly minimizing (7), the Sparse Random Features algorithm optimizes the related ?1 -regularized problem defined as min ? w?H ? = ??w? ? 1+ F (w) N 1 ? ? ?(xn )?H , yn ), L(?w, N n=1 (8) ? ? ? 1 is defined as the ?1 -norm in function where ?(x) =? p ? ?(x) is replaced by ?(x) and ?w? ? 1 = h?H |w(h)|dh. ? The whole procedure is depicted in Algorithm 1. At each iteration, space ?w? we draw R coordinates h1 , h2 , ..., hR from distribution p(h), add them into a working set At , and minimize (8) w.r.t. the working set At as min t w(h),h?A ? ? ? h?At |w(h)| ? + N ? 1 ? L( w(h)? ? h (xn ), yn ). N n=1 t (9) h?A At the end of each iteration, the algorithm removes features with zero weight to maintain a compact working set. Algorithm 1 Sparse Random-Feature Algorithm ? 0 = 0, working set A(0) = {}, and t = 0. Initialize w repeat 1. Sample h1 , h2 , ..., hR i.i.d. from distribution p(h). 2. Add h1 , h2 , ..., hR to the set A(t) . ? t+1 by solving 3. Obtain w (9). { } (t+1) 4. A = A(t) \ h | w ? t+1 (h) = 0 . 5. t ? t + 1. until t = T 3.1 Convergence Analysis In this section, we analyze the convergence behavior of Algorithm 1. The analysis comprises of two parts. First, we estimate the number of iterations Algorithm 1 takes to produce a solution wt that is at most ? away from some arbitrary reference solution wref on the ?1 -regularized program (8). Then, by taking wref as the optimal solution w? of (7), we obtain an approximation guarantee for wt with respect to w? . The proofs for most lemmas and corollaries will be in the appendix. Lemma 1. Suppose loss function L(z, y) has ?-Lipschitz-continuous derivative and |?h (x)| ? ? ? ?(xn )?, yn ) in (8) has ? ?) = N1 N B, ?h ? H, ?x ? X . The loss term Loss(w; n=1 L(?w, ? + ?? h ; ?) ? Loss(w; ? ?) ? gh ? + Loss(w ? 2 ? , 2 ? ?)(h) is the where ? h = ?(?x ? h?) is a Dirac function centered at h, and gh = ?w ? Loss(w; Frechet derivative of the loss term evaluated at h, and ? = ?B 2 . The above lemma states smoothness of the loss term, which is essential to guarantee descent amount obtained by taking a coordinate descent step. In particular, we aim to express ? the expected progress made by Algorithm 1 as the proximal-gradient magnitude of F? (w) = F ( p ? w) defined as N ? 1 ? ? n )?, yn ). F? (w) = ?? p ? w?1 + L(?w, ?(x N n=1 (10) ? be the gradients of loss terms in (8), (10) respec? ?), g ? = ?w Loss(w, ?) . Let g = ?w ? Loss(w, ? 1 ). We have following relations between (8) and (10): tively, and let ? ? ? (??w? ? ? ? ? = p ? g, ? := p ? ? ? ? (?? p ? w?1 ), g ? (11) by simple applications of the chain rule. We then analyze the progress made by each iteration of Algorithm 1. Recalling that we used R to denote the number of samples drawn in step 1 of our algorithm, we will first assume R = 1, and then show that same result holds also for R > 1. 4 Theorem 1 (Descent Amount). The expected descent of the iterates of Algorithm 1 satisfies ? t+1 )] ? F (w ? t) ? ? E[F (w ??? ? t ?2 , 2 (12) ? is the proximal gradient of (10), that is, where ? ? ? ? ? = argmin ?? p ? (wt + ?)?1 ? ?? p ? wt ?1 + ?? g , ?? + ???2 ? 2 ? (13) ? is the derivative of loss term w.r.t. w. ? = ?w Loss(wt , ?) and g ? t , ?)(h). By Corollary 1, we have Proof. Let gh = ?w ? Loss(w ? t + ?? h ) ? F (w ? t ) ? ?|w F (w ? t (h) + ?| ? ?|w ? t (h)| + gh ? + ? 2 ? . 2 (14) Minimizing RHS w.r.t. ?, the minimizer ?h should satisfy gh + ?h + ??h = 0 (15) for some sub-gradient ?h ? ? (?|w ? (h) + ?h |). Then by definition of sub-gradient and (15) we have ? ? ?|w ? t (h) + ?| ? ?|w ? t (h)| + gh ? + ? 2 ? ?h ?h + gh ?h + ?h2 (16) 2 2 ? ? = ???h2 + ?h2 = ? ?h2 . (17) 2 2 t Note the equality in (16) holds if w ? t (h) = 0 or the optimal ?h = 0, which is true for Algorithm t+1 ? ? t+1 ) ? F (w ? t + ?h ? h ). 1. Since w minimizes (9) over a block At containing h, we have F (w Combining (14) and (16), taking expectation over h on both sides, and then we have ? ? ? t+1 )] ? F (w ? t ) ? ? E[?h2 ] = ? p ? ??2 = ?? E[F (w ? ?2 2 ? ? = p ? ? is the proximal gradient (13) of F? (wt ), which is true Then it remains to verify that ? ? satisfies the optimality condition of (13) since ? ? ?+? ? + ?? ? = p ? (g + ? + ??) = 0, g where first equality is from (11) and the second is from (15). Theorem 2 (Convergence Rate). Given any reference solution wref , the sequence {wt }? t=1 satisfies E[F? (wt )] ? F? (wref ) + where k = max{t ? c, 0} and c = 2(F? (0)?F? (wref )) ??wref ?2 2??wref ?2 , k (18) is a constant. Proof. First, the equality actually holds in inequality (16), since for h ? / A(t?1) , we have wt (h) = 0, which implies ?|wt (h) + ?| ? ?|wt (h)| = ??, ? ? ?(?|wt (h) + ?|), and for h ? At?1 we have ??h = 0, which gives 0 to both LHS and RHS. Therefore, we have ? ? ? ? ? T ? + ???2 . ? ?? ? ?2 = min ?? p ? (wt + ?)?1 ? ?? p ? wt ?1 + g (19) ? 2 2 Note the minimization in (19) is separable for different coordinates. For h ? A(t?1) , the weight wt (h) iteration t, so we have ? ??h + g?h = 0 for some ??h ? ? is already optimal in the beginning of(t?1) ?(| p(h)w(h)|). Therefore, ?h = 0, h ? A is optimal both to (| p(h)(w(h) + ?h )| + g?h ?h ) and to ?2 ?h2 . Set ?h = 0 for the latter, we have { } ? ? ? ? ? 2 2 t t ? ?? ? ? = min ?? p ? (w + ?)?1 ? ?? p ? w ?1 + ?? ?h dh g , ?? + ? 2 2 h?A / (t?1) { } ? ? ? min F? (wt + ?) ? F? (wt ) + ?h2 dh ? 2 h?A / (t?1) 5 from convexity of F? (w). Consider solution of the form ? = ?(wref ? wt ), we have } { ? ( t ) ? ??2 2 ref t 2 ref t t ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? min F w + ?(w (w (h) ? w (h)) dh ? w ) ? F (w ) + 2 2 h?A ??[0,1] / (t?1) } { ? ( ) ??2 t ref t t ref 2 ? ? ? ? ? min F (w ) + ? F (w ) ? F (w ) ? F (w ) + w (h) dh 2 h?A ??[0,1] / (t?1) } { ( ) ??2 ? min ?? F? (wt ) ? F? (wref ) + ?wref ?2 , 2 ??[0,1] t where the second inequality results from w / A(t?1) . Minimizing last expression w.r.t. ( ) (h) = 0, h ? ? t ? ref )?F (w ) ?, we have ?? = min F (w??w , 1 and ref ?2 { ( )2 ? ? F? (wt ) ? F? (wref ) /(2??wref ?2 ) ? ?? ? ?2 ? 2 ? ?2 ?wref ?2 , if F? (wt ) ? F? (wref ) < ??wref ?2 . , o.w. (20) Note, since the function value {F? (wt )}? t=1 is non-increasing, only iterations in the beginning fall in ? F? (wref )) second case of (20), and the number of such iterations is at most c = ? 2(F (0)? ?. For t > c, ??wref ?2 we have ??? ? t ?22 (F? (wt ) ? F? (wref ))2 E[F? (wt+1 )] ? F? (wt ) ? ? ?? . (21) 2 2??wref ?2 The recursion then leads to the result. Note the above bound does not yield useful result if ?wref ?2 ? ?. Fortunately, the optimal solution of our target problem (7) has finite ?w? ?2 as long as in (7) ? > 0, so it always give a useful bound when plugged into (18), as following corollary shows. Corollary 1 (Approximation Guarantee). The output of Algorithm 1 satisfies [ ] { ? 2 } ? + 2??w ?2 ? (D) ?1 + Loss(w ? (D) ; ?) ? ??w? ?2 + Loss(w? ; ?) E ??w (22) D? ? ? with D = max{D ? c, 0}, where w is the optimal solution of problem (7), c is a constant defined in Theorem 2. Then the following two corollaries extend the guarantee (22) to any R ? 1, and a bound holds with high probability. The latter is a direct result of [18,Theorem 1] applied to the recursion (21). Corollary 2. The bound (22) holds for any R ? 1 in Algorithm 1, where if there are T iterations then D = T R. ? 2 ? Corollary 3. For D ? 2??w (1 + log ?1 ) + 2 ? 4c + c , the output of Algorithm 1 has ? { } ? +? ? (D) ?1 + Loss(w ? (D) ; ?) ? ??w? ?2 + Loss(w? ; ?) ??w (23) ? with probability 1 ? ?, where c is as defined in Theorem 2 and w is the optimal solution of (7). 3.2 Relation to the Kernel Method Our result (23) states that, for D large enough, the Sparse Random Features algorithm achieves either a comparable loss to that of the vanilla kernel method, or a model complexity (measured in ?1 -norm) less than that of kernel method (measured in ?2 -norm). Furthermore, since w? is not the optimal solution of the ?1 -regularized program (8), it is possible for the LHS of (23) to be much smaller than the RHS. On the other hand, since any w? of finite ?2 -norm can be the reference solution wref , the ? used in solving the ?1 -regularized problem (8) can be different from the ? used in the kernel method. The tightest bound is achieved by minimizing the RHS of (23), which is equivalent to minimizing ? (7) with some unknown ?(?) due to the difference of ?w?1 and ?w?22 . In practice, we can follow a regularization path to find small enough ? that yields comparable predictive performance while maintains model as compact as possible. Note, when using different sampling distribution p(h) from the decomposition (3), our analysis provides different bounds (23) for the Randomized Coordinate Descent in Hilbert Space. This is in contrast to the analysis in the finite-dimensional case, where RCD with different sampling distribution converges to the same solution [18]. 6 3.3 Relation to the Boosting Method Boosting is a well-known approach to minimize infinite-dimensional problems with ?1 regularization [8, 9], and which in this setting, performs greedy coordinate descent on (8). For each iteration t, the algorithm finds the coordinate h(t) yielding steepest descent in the loss term h(t) = argmin h?H N 1 ? ? L ?h (xn ) N n=1 n (24) to add into a working set At and minimize (8) w.r.t. At . When the greedy step (24) can be solved exactly, Boosting has fast convergence to the optimal solution of (8) [13, 14]. On the contrary, randomized coordinate descent can only converge to a sub-optimal solution in finite time when there are infinite number of dimensions. However, in practice, only a very limited class of basis functions allow the greedy step in (24) to be performed exactly. For most basis functions (weak learners) such as perceptrons and decision trees, the greedy step (24) can only be solved approximately. In such cases, Boosting might have no convergence guarantee, while the randomized approach is still guaranteed to find a comparable solution to that of the kernel method. In our experiments, we found that the randomized coordinate descent performs considerably better than approximate Boosting with the perceptron basis functions (weak learners), where as adopted in the Boosting literature [19, 8], a convex surrogate loss is used to solve (24) approximately. 4 Experiments In this section, we compare Sparse Random Features (Sparse-RF) to the existing Random Features algorithm (RF) and the kernel method (Kernel) on regression and classification problems with kernels set to Gaussian RBF, Laplacian RBF [2], and Perceptron kernel [7] 1 . For Gaussian and Laplacian RBF kernel, we use Fourier basis function with corresponding distribution p(h) derived in [2]; for Perceptron kernel, we use perceptron basis function with distribution p(h) being uniform over unit-sphere as shown in [7]. For regression, we solve kernel ridge regression (1) and RF regression (6) in closed-form as in [10] using Eigen, a standard C++ library of numerical linear algebra. For Sparse-RF, we solve the LASSO sub-problem (9) by standard RCD algorithm. In classification, we use LIBSVM2 as solver of kernel method, and use Newton-CG method and Coordinate Descent method in LIBLINEAR [12] to solve the RF approximation (6) and Sparse-RF sub-problem (9) respectively. We set ?N = N ? = 1 for the kernel and RF methods, and for Sparse-RF, we choose ?N ? {1, 10, 100, 1000} that gives RMSE (accuracy) closest to the RF method to compare sparsity and efficiency. The results are in Tables 1 and 2, where the cost of kernel method grows at least quadratically in the number of training samples. For YearPred, we use D = 5000 to maintain tractability of the RF method. Note for Covtype dataset, the ?2 -norm ?w? ?2 from kernel machine is significantly larger than that of others, so according to (22), a larger number of random features D are required to obtain similar performance, as shown in Figure 1. In Figure 1, we compare Sparse-RF (randomized coordinate descent) to Boosting (greedy coordinate descent) and the bound (23) obtained from SVM with Perceptron kernel and basis function (weak learner). The figure shows that Sparse-RF always converges to a solution comparable to that of the kernel method, while Boosting with approximate greedy steps (using convex surrogate loss) converges to a higher objective value, due to bias from the approximation. Acknowledgement S.-D.Lin acknowledges the support of Telecommunication Lab., Chunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd via TL-1038201, AOARD via No. FA2386-13-1-4045, Ministry of Science and Technology, National Taiwan University and Intel Co. via MOST102-2911-I-002-001, NTU103R7501, 102-2923-E-002-007-MY2, 102-2221-E-002170, 103-2221-E-002-104-MY2. P.R. acknowledges the support of ARO via W911NF-12-1-0390 and NSF via IIS-1149803, IIS-1320894, IIS-1447574, and DMS-1264033. This research was also supported by NSF grants CCF-1320746 and CCF-1117055. 2 Data set for classification can be downloaded from LIBSVM data set web page, and data set for regression can be found at UCI Machine Learning Repository and Ali Rahimi?s page for the paper [2]. 2 We follow the FAQ page of LIBSVM to replace hinge-loss by square-hinge-loss for comparison. 7 Table 1: Results for Kernel Ridge Regression. Fields from top to bottom are model size (# of support vectors or # of random features or # of non-zero weights respectively), testing RMSE, training time, testing prediction time, and memory usage during training. Data set CPU Ntr =6554 Nt =819 d =21 Census Ntr =18186 Nt =2273 d =119 YearPred Ntr =463715 Nt =51630 d =90 Kernel SV=6554 RMSE=0.038 Ttr =154 s Tt =2.59 s Mem=1.36 G SV=18186 RMSE=0.029 Ttr =2719 s Tt =74 s Mem=10 G SV=# RMSE=# Ttr =# Tt =# Mem=# Gaussian RBF RF D=10000 0.037 875 s 6s 4.71 G D=10000 0.032 1615 s 80 s 8.2 G D=5000 0.103 7697 s 697 s 76.7G Sparse-RF NZ=57 0.032 22 s 0.04 s 0.069 G NZ=1174 0.030 229 s 8.6 s 0.55 G NZ=1865 0.104 1618 s 97 s 45.6G Laplacian RBF RF D=10000 . 0.035 803 s 6.99 s 4.71 G D=10000 0.168 1633 s 88 s 8.2 G D=5000 0.286 9417 s 715 s 76.6 G Kernel SV=6554 0.034 157 s 3.13 s 1.35 G SV=18186 0.146 3268 s 68 s 10 G SV=# # # # # Sparse-RF NZ=289 0.027 43 s 0.18 s 0.095 G NZ=5269 0.179 225 s 38s 1.7 G NZ=3739 0.273 1453 s 209 s 54.3 G Kernel SV=6554 0.026 151 s 2.48 s 1.36 G SV=18186 0.010 2674 s 67.45 s 10 G SV=# # # # # Perceptron Kernel RF Sparse-RF D=10000 NZ=251 0.038 0.027 776 s 27 s 6.37 s 0.13 s 4.71 G 0.090 G D=10000 NZ=976 0.016 0.016 1587 s 185 s 76 s 6.7 s 8.2 G 0.49 G D=5000 NZ=896 0.105 0.105 8636 s 680 s 688 s 51 s 76.7 G 38.1 G Table 2: Results for Kernel Support Vector Machine. Fields from top to bottom are model size (# of support vectors or # of random features or # of non-zero weights respectively), testing accuracy, training time, testing prediction time, and memory usage during training. Data set Cod-RNA Ntr =59535 Nt =10000 d =8 IJCNN Ntr =127591 Nt =14100 d =22 Covtype Ntr =464810 Nt =116202 d =54 Kernel SV=14762 Acc=0.966 Ttr =95 s Tt =15 s Mem=3.8 G SV=16888 Acc=0.991 Ttr =636 s Tt =34 s Mem=12 G SV=335606 Acc=0.849 Ttr =74891 s Tt =3012 s Mem=78.5 G Gaussian RBF RF D=10000 0.964 214 s 56 s 9.5 G D=10000 0.989 601 s 88 s 20 G D=10000 0.829 9909 s 735 s 74.7 G Sparse-RF NZ=180 0.964 180 s 0.61 s 0.66 G NZ=1392 0.989 292 s 11 s 7.5 G NZ=3421 0.836 6273 s 132 s 28.1 G Laplacian RBF RF D=10000 . 0.969 290 s 46 s 9.6 G D=10000 0.992 379 s 86 s 20 G D=10000 0.888 10170 s 635 s 74.6 G Sparse-RF NZ=1195 0.970 137 s 6.41 s 1.8 G NZ=2508 0.992 566 s 25 s 9.9 G NZ=3141 0.869 2788 s 175 s 56.5 G Boosting Sparse?RF Kernel 0.2 Perceptron Kernel RF D=10000 0.964 197 s 71.9 s 9.6 G D=10000 0.987 381 s 77 s 20 G D=10000 0.835 6969 s 664 s 74.7 G Sparse-RF NZ=1148 0.963 131 s 3.81 s 1.4 G NZ=1530 0.988 490 s 11 s 7.8 G NZ=1401 0.836 1706 s 70 s 44.4 G Covtype?Objective 0.25 Boosting Sparse?RF Kernel 0.65 Boosting Sparse?RF Kernel 0.6 0.6 0.55 0.5 0.4 0.15 objective objective objective Kernel SV=15201 0.967 57.34 s 7.01 s 3.6 G SV=26563 0.991 634 s 16 s 11 G SV=358174 0.905 79010 s 1774 s 80.5 G IJCNN?Objective Cod?RNA?Objective 0.8 0.7 Kernel SV=13769 0.971 89 s 15 s 3.6 G SV=16761 0.995 988 s 34 s 12 G SV=224373 0.954 64172 s 2004 s 80.8 G 0.1 0.5 0.45 0.3 0.4 0.05 0.2 0.35 500 1000 1500 2000 0 0 2500 1 1.5 time Cod?RNA?Error IJCNN?Error Boosting Sparse?RF Kernel 0.3 2 2.5 4 x 10 0 error 0.15 15000 Covtype?Error Boosting Sparse?RF Kernel 0.2 0.07 0.25 0.2 10000 0.22 Boosting Sparse?RF Kernel 0.08 5000 time 0.09 0.35 error 0.5 time 0.06 0.18 0.05 0.16 error 0.1 0 0.04 0.14 0.03 0.1 0.12 0.02 0.05 0 0 0.1 0.01 500 1000 1500 time 2000 2500 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 time 2 2.5 4 x 10 0.08 0 5000 10000 15000 time Figure 1: The ?1 -regularized objective (8) (top) and error rate (bottom) achieved by Sparse Random Feature (randomized coordinate descent) and Boosting (greedy coordinate descent) using perceptron basis function (weak learner). The dashed line shows the ?2 -norm plus loss achieved by kernel method (RHS of (22)) and the corresponding error rate using perceptron kernel [7]. 8 References [1] Mercer, J. Functions of positive and negative type and their connection with the theory of integral equations. Royal Society London, A 209:415 446, 1909. [2] Rahimi, A. and Recht, B. Random features for large-scale kernel machines. NIPS 20, 2007. [3] Rahimi, A. and Recht, B. Weighted sums of random kitchen sinks: Replacing minimization with randomization in learning. NIPS 21, 2008. [4] Vedaldi, A., Zisserman, A.: Efficient additive kernels via explicit feature maps. In CVPR. (2010) [5] P. Kar and H. Karnick. Random feature maps for dot product kernels. In Proceedings of AISTATS?12, pages 583 591, 2012. [6] T. Yang, Y.-F. Li, M. Mahdavi, R. Jin, and Z.-H. Zhou. Nystrom method vs. random Fourier features: A theoretical and empirical comparison. In Adv. NIPS, 2012. 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Benchmarking Feed-Forward Neural Networks: Models and Measures Leonard G. C. Harney Computing Discipline Macquarie University NSW2109 AUSTRALIA Abstract Existing metrics for the learning performance of feed-forward neural networks do not provide a satisfactory basis for comparison because the choice of the training epoch limit can determine the results of the comparison. I propose new metrics which have the desirable property of being independent of the training epoch limit. The efficiency measures the yield of correct networks in proportion to the training effort expended. The optimal epoch limit provides the greatest efficiency. The learning performance is modelled statistically, and asymptotic performance is estimated. Implementation details may be found in (Harney, 1992). 1 Introduction The empirical comparison of neural network training algorithms is of great value in the development of improved techniques and in algorithm selection for problem solving. In view of the great sensitivity of learning times to the random starting weights (Kolen and Pollack, 1990), individual trial times such as reported in (Rumelhart, et al., 1986) are almost useless as measures of learning performance. Benchmarking experiments normally involve many training trials (typically N = 25 or 100, although Tesauro and Janssens (1988) use N = 10000). For each trial i, the training time to obtain a correct network ti is recorded. Trials which are not successful within a limitofTepochs are considered failures; they are recorded as ti = T. The mean successful training time IT is defined as follows. 1167 1168 Harney where S is the number of successful trials. The median successful time 'iT is the epoch at which S/2 trials are successes. It is common (e.g. Jacobs, 1987; Kruschke and Movellan, 1991; Veitch and Holmes, 1991) to report the mean and standard deviation along with the success rate AT = S/ N, but the results are strongly dependent on the choice of T as shown by Fahlman (1988). The problem is to characterise training performance independent of T. Tesauro and Janssens (1988) use the harmonic mean tH as the average learning rate. _ tH N = N 1 Ei=l ti This minimizes the contribution of large learning times, so changes in T will have little effect on tH. However, tH is not an unbiased estimator of the mean, and is strongly influenced by the shortest learning times, so that training algorithms which produce greater variation in the learning times are preferred by this measure. Fahlman (1988) allows the learning program to restart an unsuccessful trial, incorporating the failed training time in the total time for that trial. This method is realistic, since a failed trial would be restarted in a problem-solving situation. However, Fahlman's averages are still highly dependent upon the epoch limit T which is chosen beforehand as the restart point. The present paper proposes new performance measures for feed-forward neural networks. In section 4, the optimal epoch limit TE is defined. TE is the optimal restart point for Fahlman's averages, and the efficiency e is the scaled reciprocal of the optimised Fahlman average. In sections 5 and 6, the asymptotic learning behaviour is modelled and the mean and median are corrected for the truncation effect of the epoch limit T. Some benchmark results are presented in section 7, and compared with previously published results. 2 Performance Measurement For benchmark results to be useful, the parameters and techniques of measurement and training must be fully specified. Training parameters include the network structure, the learning rate 1}, the momentum term a and the range of the initial random weights [-r, r]. For problems with binary output, the correctness of the network response is defined by a threshold Tc-responses less than Tc are considered equivalent to 0, while responses greater than 1 - Tc are considered equivalent to 1. For problems with analog output, the network response is considered correct if it lies within Tc of the desired value. In the present paper, only binary problems are considered and the value Tc 0.4 is used, as in (Fahlman 1988). = 3 The Training Graph The training graph displays the proportion of correct networks as a function of the epoch. Typically, the tail of the graph resembles a decay curve. It is evident in figure 1 that the Benchmarking Feed-Forward Neural Networks: Models and Measures 1.0 -BP -DE 0.8 CIJ '- ~ .- !cu 0.6 8. u ~ ~ 0.4 0 c: 0 t:: 0 - Z 8 0.2 0.0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 Epoch Limit Figure 1: Typical Training Graphs: Back-Propagation ('I} = 0.5, Q' = 0) and Descending Epsilon (ry = 0.5, Q' = 0) on Exclusive-Or (2-2-1 structure, N = 1000, T = 10000). success rate for either algorithm may be significantly increased if the epoch limit was raised beyond 10000. The shape of the training graph varies depending upon the problem and the algorithm employed to solve it. Descending epsilon (Yu and Simmons, 1990) solves a higher proportion of the exclusive-or trials with T = 10000, but back-propagation would have a higher success rate if T = 3000. This exemplifies the dramatic effect that the choice of T can have on the comparison of training algorithms. 1\vo questions naturally arise from this discussion: "What is the optimal value for T?" and "What happens as T ~ oo?". These questions will be addressed in the following sections. 4 Efficiency and Optimal T. Adjusting the epOch limit T in a learning algorithm affects both the yield of correct networks and the effort expended on unsuccessful trials. To capture the total yield for effort ratio, we define the efficiency E( t) of epoch limit t as follows. The efficiency graph plots the efficiency against of the epoch limit. The effiCiency graph for back-propagation (figure 2) exhibits a strong peak with the efficiency reducing relatively quickly if the epoch limit is too large. In contrast, the efficiency graph for descending epsilon exhibits an extremely broad peak with only a slight drop as the epoch limit is increased. This occurs because the asymptotic success rate (A in section 5) is close to 1169 = Figure 2: Efficiency Graphs: Back-Propagation (ry 0.3, a Epsilon (ry = 0.3, a = 0.9) on Exclusive-Or (2-2-1 structure, N = 0.9) and Descending = 1000, T = 10000). 1.0; in such cases, the efficiency remains high over a wider range of epoch limits and near-optimal performance can be more easily achieved for novel problems. The efficiency benchmark parameters are derived from the graph as shown in figure 3. The epoch limit TE at which the peak efficiency occurs is the optimal epoch limit. The peak efficiency e is a good performance measure, independent of T when T > TE. Unlike I H , it is not biased by the shortest learning times. The peak efficiency is the scaled reciprocal of Fahlman's (1988) average for optimal T, and incorporates the failed trials as a perfonnance penalty. The optimisation of training parameters is suggested by Tesauro and Janssens (1988), but they do not optimise T. For comparison with other performance measures, the un scaled optimised Fahlman average t E = 1000/ e may be used instead of e. The prediction of the optimal epoch limit TE for novel problems would help reduce wasted computation. The range parameters TEl and TE2 show how precisely Tmust be set to obtain efficiency within 50% of optimal-if two algorithms are otherwise similar in performance, the one with a wider range (TEl , TE2) would be preferred for novel problems. 5 Asymptotic Performance: T ~ 00 In the training graph, the proportion of trials that ultimately learn correctly can be estimated by the asymptote which the graph is approachin?. I statistically model the tail of the graph by the distribution F(t) = 1 - [a(t - To) + 1]- and thus estimate the asymptotic success rate A. Figure 4 illustrates the model parameters. Since the early portions of the graph are dominated by initialisation effects, To, the point where the model commences to fit, is determined by applying the Kolmogorov-Smimov goodness-of-fit test (Stephens 1974) Benchmarking Feed-Forward Neural Networks: Models and Measures 0.0 - t - - - - - ' - - t - - - - 1 ' - - - - - - - - - - - - + - - - - - o Epoch Limit Figure 3: Efficiency Parameters in Relation to the Efficiency Graph. for all possible values of To. The maximum likelihood estimates of a and k are found by using the simplex algorithm (Caceci and Cacheris, 1984) to directly maximise the following log-likelihood equation. Let) M [lna+lnk-In(l- (a(T-To)+l)-k)](k+l) L In(a(ti- To)+l) To<t;<T where M is the number of trials recording times in the range (To, T). The asymptotic success rate .A is then obtained as follows. In practice, the statistical model I have chosen is not suitable for all learning algorithms. For example, in preliminary investigations I have been unable to reliably model the descending epsilon algorithm (Yu and Simmons, 1990). Further study is needed to develop more widely applicable models. 6 Corrected Measures The mean IT and the median tT are based upon only those trials that succeeded in T epochs. The asymptotic learning model predicts additional success for t > T epochs. Incorporating 1171 1172 Harney 1.0 0.8 tIJ '0 ....? ~ ~ ... ~ 0.6 Il) z... J ~ 5 u 0.4 0.2 0.0 0 To T 00 Epoch Limit Figure 4: Parameters for the Model of Asymptotic Perfonnance. the predicted successes, the corrected mean Ie estimates the mean successful learning time as T - 00. The corrected median te is the epoch for which AI2 of the trials are successes. It estimates the median successful learning time as T - 00. 7 Benchmark Results for Back.Propagation Table 1 presents optimised results for two popular benchmark problems: the 2-2-1 exclusive-or problem (Rumelhart, et al., 1986, page 334), and the 10-5-10 encoder/decoder problem (Fahlman, 1988). Both problems employ three-layer networks with one hidden layer fully connected to the input and output units. The networks were trained with input and output values of 0 and 1. The weights were updated after each epoch of training; i.e. after each cycle through all the training patterns. The characteristics of the learning for these two problems differs significantly. To accurately benchmark the exclusive-or problem, N = 10000 learning runs were needed to measure e accurate to ?0.3. With T = 200, I searched the combinations of 0:', 1] and r. The optimal parameters were then used in a separate run with N = 10000 and T = 2000 to estimate the other benchmark parameters. In contrast, the encoder/decoder problem produced more stable efficiency values so that N = 100 learning runs produced estimates of e precise to ?0.2. With T = 600, all the learning runs converged. The final benchmark values were Benchmarking Feed-Forward Neural Networks: Models and Measures Table 1: Optimised Benchmark Results. PROBLEM r Q' TJ e TE TEl TE2 exclusive-or 1.4 ?0.2 1.1 ?0.2 0.65 ?0.05 0.00 ?0.10 7.0 ?0.5 1.7 ?0.1 17.1 ?0.3 8.1 ?0.2 49 26 235 59 00 110 00 124 2-2-1 encoder/decoder 10-5-10 PROBLEM exclusive-or encoder/decoder tE a k To 'Y A Ie AT IT IH 0.1 0.5 54 0.66 0.93 1.00 409 124 0.76 1.00 50 124 40 114 determined with N = 1000. Confidence intervals for e were obtained by applying the jackknife procedure (Mosteller and Tukey, 1977, chapter 8); confidence intervals on the training parameters reflect the range of near-optimal efficiency results. In the exclusive-or results, the four means vary from each other considerably. Ie is large because the asymptotic performance model predicts many successful learning runs with T > 2000. However, since the model is fitting only a small portion of the data (approximately 1000 cases), its predictions may not be highly reliable. IT is low because the limit T = 2000 discards the longer training runs. IH is also low because it is strongly biased by the shortest times. IE measures the training effort required per trained network, including failure times, provided that T = 49. However, TEl and TE2 show that T can lie within the range (26,235) and achieve performance no worse than 118 epochs effort per trained network. The results for the encoder/decoder problem agree well with Fahlman (1988) who found Q' = 0, TJ = 1.7 and 1" = 1.0 as optimal parameter values and obtained t = 129 based upon N = 25. Equal performance is obtained with Q' = 0.1 and TJ = 1.6, but momentum values in excess of 0.2 reduce the efficiency. Since all the learning runs are successful, t E = Ie = IT and A = AT = 1.0. Both TE and TE2 are infinite, indicating that there is no need to limit the training epochs to produce optimal learning performance. Because there were no failed runs, the asymptotic performance was not modelled. 8 Conclusion The measurement of learning performance in artificial neural networks is of great importance. Existing performance measurements have employed measures that are either dependent on an arbitrarily chosen training epoch limit or are strongly biased by the shortest learning times. By optimising the training epoch limit, I have developed new performance measures, the efficiency e and the related mean tE, which are both independent of the training epoch limit and provide an unbiased measure of performance. The optimal training epoch limit TE and the range over which near-optimal performance is achieved (TEl, TE2) may be useful for solving novel problems. I have also shown how the random distribution of learning times can be statistically mod- 1173 1174 Harney elled, allowing prediction of the asymptotic success rate A, and computation of corrected mean and median successful learning times, and I have demonstrated these new techniques on two popular benchmark problems. Further work is needed to extend the modelling to encompass a wider range of algOrithms and to broaden the available base of benchmark results. In the process, it is believed that greater understanding of the learning processes of feed-forward artificial neural networks will result. References M. S. Caceci and W. P. Cacheris. Fitting curves to data: The simplex algorithm is the answer. Byte, pages 340-362, May 1984. Scott E. Fahlman. An empirical study of learning speed in back-propagation networks. Technical Report CMU-CS-88-162, Computer Science Department, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 1988. Leonard G. C. Hamey. Benchmarking feed-forward neural networks: Models and measures. Macquarie Computing Report, Computing Discipline, Macquarie University, NSW 2109 Australia, 1992. R. A. Jacobs. Increased rates of convergence through learning rate adaptation. COINS Technical Report 87 -117 , University of Massachusetts at Amherst, Dept. of Computer and Information Science, Amherst, MA, 1987. John F. Kolen and Jordan B. Pollack. Back propagation is sensitive to initial conditions. Complex Systems, 4:269-280, 1990. John K. Kruschke and Javier R. Movellan. Benefits of gain: Speeded learning and minimal hidden layers in back-propagation networks. IEEE Trans. Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 21(1):273-280, January 1991. Frederick Mosteller and John W. Tukey. Data Analysis and Regression. Addison-Wesley, 1977. D. E. Rumelhart, G. E. Hinton, and R. J. Williams. Learning internal representations by error propagation. In Parallel Distributed Processing, chapter 8, pages 318-362. MIT Press, 1986. M. A. Stephens. EDF statistics for goodness of fit and some comparisons. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 69:730-737, September 1974. G. Tesauro and B. Janssens. Scaling relationships in back-propagation learning. Complex Systems, 2:39-44, 1988. A. C. Veitch and G. Holmes. Benchmarking and fast learning in neural networks: Results for back-propagation. In Proceedings of the Second Australian Conference on Neural Networks, pages 167-171,1991. Yeong-Ho Yu and Robert F. Simmons. Descending epsilon in back-propagation: A technique for better generalization. In Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Neural Networks 1990,1990.
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Latent Support Measure Machines for Bag-of-Words Data Classification Yuya Yoshikawa Nara Institute of Science and Technology Nara, 630-0192, Japan yoshikawa.yuya.yl9@is.naist.jp Tomoharu Iwata NTT Communication Science Laboratories Kyoto, 619-0237, Japan iwata.tomoharu@lab.ntt.co.jp Hiroshi Sawada NTT Service Evolution Laboratories Kanagawa, 239-0847, Japan sawada.hiroshi@lab.ntt.co.jp Abstract In many classification problems, the input is represented as a set of features, e.g., the bag-of-words (BoW) representation of documents. Support vector machines (SVMs) are widely used tools for such classification problems. The performance of the SVMs is generally determined by whether kernel values between data points can be defined properly. However, SVMs for BoW representations have a major weakness in that the co-occurrence of different but semantically similar words cannot be reflected in the kernel calculation. To overcome the weakness, we propose a kernel-based discriminative classifier for BoW data, which we call the latent support measure machine (latent SMM). With the latent SMM, a latent vector is associated with each vocabulary term, and each document is represented as a distribution of the latent vectors for words appearing in the document. To represent the distributions efficiently, we use the kernel embeddings of distributions that hold high order moment information about distributions. Then the latent SMM finds a separating hyperplane that maximizes the margins between distributions of different classes while estimating latent vectors for words to improve the classification performance. In the experiments, we show that the latent SMM achieves state-of-the-art accuracy for BoW text classification, is robust with respect to its own hyper-parameters, and is useful to visualize words. 1 Introduction In many classification problems, the input is represented as a set of features. A typical example of such features is the bag-of-words (BoW) representation, which is used for representing a document (or sentence) as a multiset of words appearing in the document while ignoring the order of the words. Support vector machines (SVMs) [1], which are kernel-based discriminative learning methods, are widely used tools for such classification problems in various domains, e.g., natural language processing [2], information retrieval [3, 4] and data mining [5]. The performance of SVMs generally depends on whether the kernel values between documents (data points) can be defined properly. The SVMs for BoW representation have a major weakness in that the co-occurrence of different but semantically similar words cannot be reflected in the kernel calculation. For example, when dealing with news classification, ?football? and ?soccer? are semantically similar and characteristic words for football news. Nevertheless, in the BoW representation, the two words might not affect the computation of the kernel value between documents, because many kernels, e.g., linear, polynomial and 1 Gaussian RBF kernels, evaluate kernel values based on word co-occurrences in each document, and ?football? and ?soccer? might not co-occur. To overcome this weakness, we can consider the use of the low rank representation of each document, which is learnt by unsupervised topic models or matrix factorization. By using the low rank representation, the kernel value can be evaluated properly between documents without shared vocabulary terms. Blei et al. showed that an SVM using the topic proportions of each document extracted by latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) outperforms an SVM using BoW features in terms of text classification accuracy [6]. Another naive approach is to use vector representation of words learnt by matrix factorization or neural networks such as word2vec [7]. In this approach, each document is represented as a set of vectors corresponding to words appearing in the document. To classify documents represented as a set of vectors, we can use support measure machines (SMMs), which are a kernel-based discriminative learning method on distributions [8]. However, these low dimensional representations of documents or words might not be helpful for improving classification performance because the learning criteria for obtaining the representation and the classifiers are different. In this paper, we propose a kernel-based discriminative learning method for BoW representation data, which we call the latent support measure machine (latent SMM). The latent SMMs assume that a latent vector is associated with each vocabulary term, and each document is represented as a distribution of the latent vectors for words appearing in the document. By using the kernel embeddings of distributions [9], we can effectively represent the distributions without density estimation while preserving necessary distribution information. In particular, the latent SMMs map each distribution into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), and find a separating hyperplane that maximizes the margins between distributions from different classes on the RKHS. The learning procedure of the latent SMMs is performed by alternately maximizing the margin and estimating the latent vectors for words. The learnt latent vectors of semantically similar words are located close to each other in the latent space, and we can obtain kernel values that reflect the semantics. As a result, the latent SMMs can classify unseen data using a richer and more useful representation than the BoW representation. The latent SMMs find the latent vector representation of words useful for classification. By obtaining two- or three-dimensional latent vectors, we can visualize relationships between classes and between words for a given classification task. In our experiments, we demonstrate the quantitative and qualitative effectiveness of the latent SMM on standard BoW text datasets. The experimental results first indicate that the latent SMM can achieve state-of-the-art classification accuracy. Therefore, we show that the performance of the latent SMM is robust with respect to its own hyper-parameters, and the latent vectors for words in the latent SMM can be represented in a two dimensional space while achieving high classification performance. Finally, we show that the characteristic words of each class are concentrated in a single region by visualizing the latent vectors. The latent SMMs are a general framework of discriminative learning for BoW data. Thus, the idea of the latent SMMs can be applied to various machine learning problems for BoW data, which have been solved by using SVMs: for example, novelty detection [10], structure prediction [11], and learning to rank [12]. 2 Related Work The proposed method is based on a framework of support measure machines (SMMs), which are kernel-based discriminative learning on distributions [8]. Muandet et al. showed that SMMs are more effective than SVMs when the observed feature vectors are numerical and dense in their experiments on handwriting digit recognition and natural scene categorization. On the other hand, when observations are BoW features, the SMMs coincide with the SVMs as described in Section 3.2. To receive the benefits of SMMs for BoW data, the proposed method represents each word as a numerical and dense vector, which is estimated from the given data. The proposed method aims to achieve a higher classification performance by learning a classifier and feature representation simultaneously. Supervised topic models [13] and maximum margin topic models (MedLDA) [14] have been proposed based on a similar motivation but using different approaches. They outperform classifiers using features extracted by unsupervised LDA. There 2 are two main differences between these methods and the proposed method. First, the proposed method plugs the latent word vectors into a discriminant function, while the existing methods plug the document-specific vectors into their discriminant functions. Second, the proposed method can naturally develop non-linear classifiers based on the kernel embeddings of distributions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model by comparing the topic model based classifiers in our text classification experiments. 3 Preliminaries In this section, we introduce the kernel embeddings of distributions and support measure machines. Our method in Section 4 will build upon these techniques. 3.1 Representations of Distributions via Kernel Embeddings Suppose that we are given a set of n distributions {Pi }ni=1 , where Pi is the ith distribution on space X ? Rq . The kernel embeddings of distributions are to embed any distribution Pi into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) Hk specified by kernel k [15], and the distribution is represented as element ?Pi in the RKHS. More precisely, the element of the ith distribution ?Pi is defined as follows: ? ?Pi := Ex?Pi [k(?, x)] = k(?, x)dPi ? Hk , (1) X where kernel k is referred to as an embedding kernel. It is known that element ?Pi preserves the properties of probability distribution Pi such as mean, covariance and higher-order moments by using characteristic kernels (e.g., Gaussian RBF kernel) [15]. In practice, although distribution Pi i is unknown, we are given a set of samples Xi = {xim }M the distribution. In this m=1 drawn from ?Mi 1 ? case, by interpreting sample set Xi as empirical distribution Pi = Mi m=1 ?xim (?), where ?x (?) is the Dirac delta function at point x ? X , empirical kernel embedding ? ?Pi is given by Mi ? 1 ? ?Pi = k(?, xim ) ? Hk , (2) Mi m=1 ? 21 which can be approximated with an error rate of ||? ?Pi ? ?Pi ||Hk = Op (Mi 3.2 ) [9]. Support Measure Machines Now we consider learning a separating hyper-plane on distributions by employing support measure machines (SMMs). An SMM amounts to solving an SVM problem with a kernel between empirical embedded distributions {? ?Pi }ni=1 , called level-2 kernel. A level-2 kernel between the ith and jth distributions is given by ?i, P ? j ) = ?? K(P ?Pi , ? ?Pj ?Hk = M Mj 1 ?i ? k(xig , xjh ), Mi Mj g=1 (3) h=1 where kernel k indicates the embedding kernel used in Eq. (2). Although the level-2 kernel Eq.(3) is linear on the embedded distributions, we can also consider non-linear level-2 kernels. For example, a Gaussian RBF level-2 kernel with bandwidth parameter ? > 0 is given by ( ) ( ) ? ?i, P ? j ) = exp ? ? ||? Krbf (P ?Pi ? ? ?Pj ||2Hk = exp ? (?? ?Pi , ? ?Pi ?Hk ? 2?? ?Pi , ? ?Pj ?Hk + ?? ?Pj , ? ?Pj ?Hk ) . 2 2 (4) Note that the inner-product ??, ??Hk in Eq. (4) can be calculated by Eq. (3). By using these kernels, we can measure similarities between distributions based on their own moment information. The SMMs are a generalization of the standard SVMs. For example, suppose that a word is represented as a one-hot representation vector with vocabulary length, where all the elements are zero except for the entry corresponding to the vocabulary term. Then, a document is represented by adding the one-hot vectors of words appearing in the document. This operation is equivalent to using a linear kernel as its embedding kernel in the SMMs. Then, by using a non-linear kernel as a level-2 kernel like Eq. (4), the SMM for the BoW documents is the same as an SVM with a non-linear kernel. 3 4 Latent Support Measure Machines In this section, we propose latent support measure machines (latent SMMs) that are effective for BoW data classification by learning latent word representation to improve classification performance. The SMM assumes that a set of samples from distribution Pi , Xi , is observed. On the other hand, as described later, the latent SMM assumes that Xi is unobserved. Instead, we consider a case where BoW features are given for each document. More formally, we are given a training set of n pairs of documents and class labels {(di , yi )}ni=1 , where di is the ith document that is represented by a multiset of words appearing in the document and yi ? Y is a class variable. Each word is included in vocabulary set V. For simplicity, we consider binary class variable yi ? {+1, ?1}. The proposed method is also applicable to multi-class classification problems by adopting one-versus-one or oneversus-rest strategies as with the standard SVMs [16]. With the latent SMM, each word t ? V is represented by a q-dimensional latent vector xt ? Rq , and the ith document is represented as a set of latent vectors for words appearing in the document Xi = {xt }t?di . Then, using the kernel embeddings of distributions described?in Section 3.1, we can obtain a representation of the ith document from Xi as follows: ? ?Pi = |d1i | t?di k(?, xt ). Using latent word vectors X = {xt }t?V and document representation {? ?Pi }ni=1 , the primal optimization problem for the latent SMM can be formulated in an analogous but different way from the original SMMs as follows: ? 1 ?? ||xt ||22 subject to yi (?w, ?Pi ?H ? b) ? 1 ? ?i , ?i ? 0, (5) ||w||2 + C ?i + 2 2 i=1 n min w,b,?,X,? t?V {?i }ni=1 where denotes slack variables for handling soft margins. Unlike the primal form of the SMMs, that of the latent SMMs includes a ?2 regularization term with parameter ? > 0 with respect to latent word vectors X. The latent SMM minimizes Eq. (5) with respect to the latent word vectors X and kernel parameters ?, along with weight parameters w, bias parameter b and {?i }ni=1 . It is extremely difficult to solve the primal problem Eq. (5) directly because the inner term ?w, ?Pi ?H in the constrained conditions is in fact calculated in an infinite dimensional space. Thus, we solve this problem by converting it into an another optimization problem in which the inner term does not appear explicitly. Unfortunately, due to its non-convex nature, we cannot derive the dual form for Eq. (5) as with the standard SVMs. Thus we consider a min-max optimization problem, which is derived by first introducing Lagrange multipliers A = {a1 , a2 , ? ? ? , an } and then plugging w = ?n a ? ?Pi into Eq (5), as follows: i i=1 min max L(A, X, ?) subject to 0 ? ai ? C, X,? A where L(A, X, ?) = n ? ai yi = 0, (6a) i=1 n ? i=1 ? 1 ?? ?i, P ? j ; X, ?) + ? ai aj yi yj K(P ||xt ||22 , (6b) 2 i=1 j=1 2 n ai ? n t?V ?i, P ? j ; X, ?) is a kernel value between empirical distributions P ? i and P ? j specified by where K(P parameters X and ? as is shown in Eq. (3). We solve this min-max problem by separating it into two partial optimization problems: 1) maxi? and 2) minimization over X and ? given current ? and ?, mization over A given current estimates X ? This approach is analogous to wrapper methods in multiple kernel learning [17]. estimates A. ? the maxi? and ?, Maximization over A. When we fix X and ? in Eq. (6) with current estimate X mization over A becomes a quadratic programming problem as follows: max A n ? i=1 ai ? n n n ? 1 ?? ? subject to 0 ? ai ? C, ?i, P ? j ; X, ? ?) ai aj yi yj K(P ai yi = 0, 2 i=1 j=1 i=1 (7) which is identical to solving the dual problem of the standard SVMs. Thus, we can obtain optimal A by employing an existing SVM package. 4 Table 1: Dataset specifications. # samples # features # classes WebKB 4,199 7,770 4 Reuters-21578 7,674 17,387 8 20 Newsgroups 18,821 70,216 20 ? the min-max Minimization over X and ?. When we fix A in Eq. (6) with current estimate A, problem can be replaced with a simpler minimization problem as follows: ? 1 ?? ?i, P ? j ; X, ?) + ? a ?i a ?j yi yj K(P ||xt ||22 . (8) 2 i=1 j=1 2 n n min l(X, ?), where l(X, ?) = ? X,? t?V To solve this problem, we use a quasi-Newton method [18]. The quasi-Newton method needs the gradient of parameters. For each word m ? V, the gradient of latent word vector xm is given by n n ?i, P ? j ; X, ?) ?l(X, ?) 1 ?? ?K(P =? a ?i a ? j yi yj + ?xm , ?xm 2 i=1 j=1 ?xm (9) where the gradient of the kernel with respect to xm depends on the choice of kernels. For example, when choosing a embedding kernel as a Gaussian RBF kernel with bandwidth parameter ? > 0: k? (xs , xt ) = exp(? ?2 ||xs ? xt ||2Hk ), and a level-2 kernel as a linear kernel, the gradient is given by { ?(xt ? xs ) (m = s ? m ?= t) ?? ?i, P ? j ; X, ?) ?K(P 1 ?(xs ? xt ) (m = t ? m ?= s) k? (xs , xt ) ? = ?xm |di ||dj | 0 (m = t ? m = s). s?di t?dj As with the estimation of X, kernel parameters ? can be obtained by calculating gradient ?l(X,?) ?? . By alternately repeating these computations until dual function Eq. (6) converges, we can find a local optimal solution to the min-max problem. The parameters that need to be stored after learning are latent word vectors X, kernel parameters ? and Lagrange multipliers A. Classification for new document d? is performed by computing ?n ?i, P ? ? ; X, ?), where P ? ? is the distribution of latent vectors for words included y(d? ) = i=1 ai yi K(P ? in d . 5 Experiments with Bag-of-Words Text Classification Data description. For the evaluation, we used the following three standard multi-class text classification datasets: WebKB, Reuters-21578 and 20 Newsgroups. These datasets, which have already been preprocessed by removing short and stop words, are found in [19] and can be downloaded from the author?s website1 . The specifications of these datasets are shown in Table 1. For our experimental setting, we ignored the original training/test data separations. Setting. In our experiments, the proposed method, latent SMM, uses a Gaussian RBF embedding kernel and a linear level-2 kernel. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the latent SMM, we compare it with several methods: MedLDA, SVD+SMM, word2vec+SMM and SVMs. MedLDA is a method that jointly learns LDA and a maximum margin classifier, which is a state-of-the-art discriminative learning method for BoW data [14]. We use the author?s implementation of MedLDA2 . SVD+SMM is a two-step procedure: 1) extracting low-dimensional representations of words by using a singular value decomposition (SVD), and 2) learning a support measure machine using the distribution of extracted representations of words appearing in each document with the same kernels as the latent SMM. word2vec+SMM employs the representations of words learnt by word2vec [7] and uses them for the SMM as in SVD+SMM. Here we use pre-trained 300 dimensional word representation vectors from the Google News corpus, which can be downloaded from the author?s website3 . Note that word2vec+SMM utilizes an additional resource to represent the latent vectors for words unlike the 1 http://web.ist.utl.pt/acardoso/datasets/ http://www.ml-thu.net/?jun/medlda.shtml 3 https://code.google.com/p/word2vec/ 2 5 (a) WebKB (b) Reuters-21578 (c) 20 Newsgroups Figure 1: Classification accuracy over number of training samples. (a) WebKB (b) Reuters-21578 (c) 20 Newsgroups Figure 2: Classification accuracy over the latent dimensionality. latent SMM, and the learning of word2vec requires n-gram information about documents, which is lost in the BoW representation. With SVMs, we use a Gaussian RBF kernel with parameter ? and a quadratic polynomial kernel, and the features are represented as BoW. We use LIBSVM4 to estimate Lagrange multipliers A in the latent SMM and to build SVMs and SMMs. To deal with multi-class classification, we adopt a one-versus-one strategy [16] in the latent SMM, SVMs and SMMs. In our experiments, we choose the optimal parameters for these methods from the following variations: ? ? {10?3 , 10?2 , ? ? ? , 103 } in the latent SMM, SVD+SMM, word2vec+SMM and SVM with a Gaussian RBF kernel, C ? {2?3 , 2?1 , ? ? ? , 25 , 27 } in all the methods, regularizer parameter ? ? {10?2 , 10?1 , 100 }, latent dimensionality q ? {2, 3, 4} in the latent SMM, and the latent dimensionality of MedLDA and SVD+SMM ranges {10, 20, ? ? ? , 50}. Accuracy over number of training samples. We first show the classification accuracy when varying the number of training samples. Here we randomly chose five sets of training samples, and used the remaining samples for each of the training sets as the test set. We removed words that occurred in less than 1% of the training documents. Below, we refer to the percentage as a word occurrence threshold. As shown in Figure 1, the latent SMM outperformed the other methods for each of the numbers of training samples in the WebKB and Reuters-21578 datasets. For the 20 Newsgroups dataset, the accuracies of the latent SMM, MedLDA and word2vec+SMM were proximate and better than those of SVD+SMM and SVMs. The performance of SVD+SMM changed depending on the datasets: while SVD+SMM was the second best method with the Reuters-21578, it placed fourth with the other datasets. This result indicates that the usefulness of the low rank representations by SVD for classification depends on the properties of the dataset. The high classification performance of the latent SMM for all of the datasets demonstrates the effectiveness of learning the latent word representations. Robustness over latent dimensionality. Next we confirm the robustness of the latent SMM over the latent dimensionality. For this experiment, we changed the latent dimensionality of the latent SMM, MedLDA and SVD+SMM within {2, 4, ? ? ? , 12}. Figure 2 shows the accuracy when varying the latent dimensionality. Here the number of training samples in each dataset was 600, and the word occurrence threshold was 1%. For all the latent dimensionality, the accuracy of the latent SMM was consistently better than the other methods. Moreover, even with two-dimensional latent 4 http://www.csie.ntu.edu.tw/?cjlin/libsvm/ 6 Figure 3: Classification accuracy on WebKB when varying word occurrence threshold. project Figure 4: Parameter sensitivity on Reuters-21578. faculty course student Figure 5: Distributions of latent vectors for words appearing in documents of each class on WebKB. vectors, the latent SMM achieved high classification performance. On the other hand, MedLDA and SVD+SMM often could not display their own abilities when the latent dimensionality was low. One of the reasons why the latent SMM with a very low latent dimensionality q achieves a good performance is that it can use q|di | parameters to classify the ith document, while MedLDA uses only q parameters. Since the latent word representation used in SVD+SMM is not optimized for the given classification problem, it does not contain useful features for classification, especially when the latent dimensionality is low. Accuracy over word occurrence threshold. In the above experiments, we omit words whose occurrence accounts for less than 1% of the training document. By reducing the threshold, low frequency words become included in the training documents. This might be a difficult situation for the latent SMM and SVD+SMM because they cannot observe enough training data to estimate their own latent word vectors. On the other hand, it would be an advantageous situation for SVMs using BoW features because they can use low frequency words that are useful for classification to compute their kernel values. Figure 3 shows the classification accuracy on WebKB when varying the word occurrence threshold within {0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1.0}. The performance of the latent SMM did not change when the thresholds were varied, and was better than the other methods in spite of the difficult situation. Parameter sensitivity. Figure 4 shows how the performance of the latent SMM changes against ?2 regularizer parameter ? and C on a Reuters-21578 dataset with 1,000 training samples. Here the latent dimensionality of the latent SMM was fixed at q = 2 to eliminate the effect of q. The performance is insensitive to ? except when C is too small. Moreover, we can see that the performance is improved by increasing the C value. In general, the performance of SVM-based methods is very sensitive to C and kernel parameters [20]. Since kernel parameters ? in the latent SMM are estimated along with latent vectors X, the latent SMM can avoid the problem of sensitivity for the kernel parameters. In addition, Figure 2 has shown that the latent SMM is robust over the latent dimensionality. Thus, the latent SMM can achieve high classification accuracy by focusing only on tuning the best C, and experimentally the best C exhibits a large value, e.g., C ? 25 . Visualization of classes. In the above experiments, we have shown that the latent SMM can achieve high classification accuracy with low-dimensional latent vectors. By using two- or threedimensional latent vectors in the latent SMM, and visualizing them, we can understand the relationships between classes. Figure 5 shows the distributions of latent vectors for words appearing 7 (a) (b) (c) (d) Complete view (50% sampling) Figure 6: Visualization of latent vectors for words on WebKB. The font color of each word indicates the class in which the word occurs most frequently, and ?project?, ?course?, ?student? and ?faculty? classes correspond to yellow, red, blue and green fonts, respectively. in documents of each class. Each class has its own characteristic distribution that is different from those of other classes. This result shows that the latent SMM can extract the difference between the distributions of the classes. For example, the distribution of ?course? is separated from those of the other classes, which indicates that documents categorized in ?course? share few words with documents categorized in other classes. On the other hand, the latent words used in the ?project? class are widely distributed, and its distribution overlaps those of the ?faculty? and ?student? classes. This would be because faculty and students work jointly on projects, and words in both ?faculty? and ?student? appear simultaneously in ?project? documents. Visualization of words. In addition to the visualization of classes, the latent SMM can visualize words using two- or three-dimensional latent vectors. Unlike unsupervised visualization methods for documents, e.g., [21], the latent SMM can gather characteristic words of each class in a region. Figure 6 shows the visualization result of words on the WebKB dataset. Here we used the same learning result as that used in Figure 5. As shown in the complete view, we can see that highlyfrequent words in each class tend to gather in a different region. On the right side of this figure, four regions from the complete view are displayed in closeup. Figures (a), (b) and (c) include words indicating ?course?, ?faculty? and ?student? classes, respectively. For example, figure (a) includes ?exercise?, ?examine? and ?quiz? which indicate examinations in lectures. Figure (d) includes words of various classes, although the ?project? class dominates the region as shown in Figure 5. This means that words appearing in the ?project? class are related to the other classes or are general words, e.g., ?occur? and ?differ?. 6 Conclusion We have proposed a latent support measure machine (latent SMM), which is a kernel-based discriminative learning method effective for sets of features such as bag-of-words (BoW). The latent SMM represents each word as a latent vector, and each document to be classified as a distribution of the latent vectors for words appearing in the document. Then the latent SMM finds a separating hyperplane that maximizes the margins between distributions of different classes while estimating latent vectors for words to improve the classification performance. The experimental results can be summarized as follows: First, the latent SMM has achieved state-of-the-art classification accuracy for BoW data. Second, we have shown experimentally that the performance of the latent SMM is robust as regards its own hyper-parameters. Third, since the latent SMM can represent each word as a two- or three- dimensional latent vector, we have shown that the latent SMMs are useful for understanding the relationships between classes and between words by visualizing the latent vectors. Acknowledgment. This work was supported by JSPS Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows (259867). 8 References [1] Corinna Cortes and Vladimir Vapnik. Support-Vector Networks. Machine Learning, 20(3):273?297, September 1995. [2] Taku Kudo and Yuji Matsumoto. Chunking with Support Vector Machines. Proceedings of the second meeting of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics on Language technologies, 816, 2001. [3] Dell Zhang and Wee Sun Lee. Question Classification Using Support Vector Machines. SIGIR, page 26, 2003. [4] Changhua Yang, Kevin Hsin-Yih Lin, and Hsin-Hsi Chen. Emotion Classification Using Web Blog Corpora. IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence, pages 275?278, November 2007. 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Support Vector Machine Learning for Interdependent and Structured Output Spaces. ICML, page 104, 2004. [12] Thorsten Joachims. Optimizing Search Engines Using Clickthrough Data. SIGKDD, page 133, 2002. [13] David M. Blei and Jon D. McAuliffe. Supervised Topic Models. NIPS, pages 1?8, 2007. [14] Jun Zhu, A Ahmed, and EP Xing. MedLDA: Maximum Margin Supervised Topic Models for Regression and Classification. ICML, 2009. [15] BK Sriperumbudur and A Gretton. Hilbert Space Embeddings and Metrics on Probability Measures. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 11:1517?1561, 2010. [16] Chih-Wei Hsu and Chih-Jen Lin. A Comparison of Methods for Multi-class Support Vector Machines. Neural Networks, IEEE Transactions on, 13(2):415?-425, 2002. [17] S?oren Sonnenburg and G R?atsch. Large Scale Multiple Kernel Learning. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 7:1531?1565, 2006. [18] Dong C. Liu and Jorge Nocedal. On the Limited Memory BFGS Method for Large Scale Optimization. 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Fast Prediction for Large-Scale Kernel Machines Cho-Jui Hsieh, Si Si, and Inderjit S. Dhillon Department of Computer Science University of Texas at Austin Austin, TX 78712 USA {cjhsieh,ssi,inderjit}@cs.utexas.edu Abstract Kernel machines such as kernel SVM and kernel ridge regression usually construct high quality models; however, their use in real-world applications remains limited due to the high prediction cost. In this paper, we present two novel insights for improving the prediction efficiency of kernel machines. First, we show that by adding ?pseudo landmark points? to the classical Nystr?om kernel approximation in an elegant way, we can significantly reduce the prediction error without much additional prediction cost. Second, we provide a new theoretical analysis on bounding the error of the solution computed by using Nystr?om kernel approximation method, and show that the error is related to the weighted kmeans objective function where the weights are given by the model computed from the original kernel. This theoretical insight suggests a new landmark point selection technique for the situation where we have knowledge of the original model. Based on these two insights, we provide a divide-and-conquer framework for improving the prediction speed. First, we divide the whole problem into smaller local subproblems to reduce the problem size. In the second phase, we develop a kernel approximation based fast prediction approach within each subproblem. We apply our algorithm to real world large-scale classification and regression datasets, and show that the proposed algorithm is consistently and significantly better than other competitors. For example, on the Covertype classification problem, in terms of prediction time, our algorithm achieves more than 10000 times speedup over the full kernel SVM, and a two-fold speedup over the state-of-the-art LDKL approach , while obtaining much higher prediction accuracy than LDKL (95.2% vs. 89.53%). 1 Introduction Kernel machines have become widely used in many machine learning problems, including classification, regression, and clustering. By mapping samples to a high-dimensional feature space, kernel machines are able to capture the nonlinear properties and usually achieve better performance compared to linear models. However, computing the decision function for the new test samples is typically expensive which limits the applicability of kernel methods to real-world applications. Therefore speeding up the prediction time of kernel methods has become an important research topic. For example, recently [2, 10] proposed various heuristics to speed up kernel SVM prediction, and kernel approximation based methods [27, 5, 21, 16] can also be applied to speed up the prediction for general kernel machines. Among them, LDKL attracts much attention recently as it performs much better than state-of-the-art kernel approximation and reduced set based methods for fast prediction. Experimental results show that LDKL can reduce the prediction costs by more than three orders of magnitude with little degradation of accuracy as compared with the original kernel SVM. In this paper, we propose a novel fast prediction technique for large-scale kernel machines. Our method is built on the Nystr?om approximation, but with the following innovations: 1. We show that by adding ?pseudo landmark points? to the Nystr?om approximation, the kernel approximation error can be reduced without too much additional prediction cost. 1 ? ? ?? k, where ? ? 2. We provide a theoretical analysis of the model approximation error k? is the model (solution) computed by Nystr?om approximation, and ?? is the solution com? ? ?? k by kernel approxiputed from the original kernel. Instead of bounding the error k? mation error on the entire kernel matrix, we refine the bound by taking the ?? weights into consideration, which indicates that we only need to focus on approximating the columns in the kernel matrix with large ?? values (e.g., support vectors in kernel SVM problem). We further show that the error bound is connected to the ?? -weighted kmeans objective function, which suggests selecting landmark points based on ?? values in Nystr?om approximation. 3. We consider the above two innovations under a divide-and-conquer framework for fast prediction. The divide-and-conquer framework partitions the problem using kmeans clustering to reduce the problem size, and for each subproblem we apply the above two techniques to develop a kernel approximation scheme for fast prediction. Based on the above three innovations, we develop a fast prediction scheme for kernel methods, DCPred++, and apply it to speed up the prediction for kernel SVM and kernel ridge regression. The experimental results show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of prediction time and accuracy. For example, on the Covertype classification problem, our algorithm achieves a two-fold speedup in terms of prediction time, and yields a higher prediction accuracy (95.2% vs 89.53%) compared to the state-of-the-art fast prediction approach LDKL. Perhaps surprisingly, our training time is usually faster or at least competitive with state-of-the-art solvers. We begin by presenting related work in Section 2, while the background material is given in Section 3. In Section 4, we introduce the concept of pseudo landmark points in kernel approximation. In Section 5, we present the divide-and-conquer framework, and theoretically analyze using the weighted kmeans to select the landmark points. The experimental results on real-world data are presented in Section 6. 2 Related Work There has been substantial works on speeding up the prediction time of kernel SVMs, and most of the approaches can be applied to other kernel methods such as kernel ridge regression. Most of the previous works can be categorized into the following three types: Preprocessing. Reducing the size of the training set usually yields fewer support vectors in the model, and thus results in faster prediction speed. [20] proposed a ?squashing? approach to reduce the size of training set by clustering and grouping nearby points. [19] proposed to select the extreme points in the training set to train kernel SVM. Nystr?om method [27, 4, 29] and Random Kitchen Sinks (RKS) [21] form low-rank kernel approximations to improve both training and prediction speed. Although RKS usually requires a larger rank than Nystr?om method, it can be further sped up by using fast Hadamard transform [16]. Other kernel approximation methods [12, 18, 1] are also proposed for different types of kernels. Post-processing. Post-processing approaches are designed to reduce the number of support vectors in the testing phase. A comprehensive comparison of these reduced-set methods has been conducted in [11], and results show that the incremental greedy method [22] implemented in STRtool achieves the best performance. Another randomized algorithm to refine the solution of the kernel SVM has been recently proposed in [2]. Modified Training Process. Another line of research aims to reduce the number of support vectors by modifying the training step. [13] proposed a greedy basis selection approach; [24] proposed a Core Vector Machine (CVM) solver to solve the L2-SVM. [9] applied a cutting plane subspace pursuit algorithm to solve the kernel SVM. The Reduced SVM (RSVM) [17] selected a subset of features in the original data, and solved the primal problem of kernel SVM. Locally Linear SVM (LLSVM) [15] represented each sample as a linear combination of its neighbors to yield efficient prediction speed. Instead of considering the original kernel SVM problem, [10] developed a new tree-based local kernel learning model (LDKL), where the decision value of each sample is computed by a series of inner products when traversing the tree. 3 Background Kernel Machines. In this paper, we focus on two kernel machines ? kernel SVM and kernel ridge regressions. Given a set of instance-label pairs {xi , yi }ni=1 , xi ? Rd , the training process of kernel SVM and kernel ridge regression generates ?? ? Rn by solving the following optimization problems: 2 1 Kernel SVM: ?? ? argmin ?T Q? ? eT ? s.t. 0 ? ? ? C, 2 ? ? Kernel Ridge Regression: ? ? argmin ?T G? + ??T ? ? 2?T y, (1) (2) ? where G ? Rn?n is the kernel matrix with Gij = K(xi , xj ); Q is an n by n matrix with Qij = yi yj Gij , and C, ? are regularization parameters. Pn In the prediction phase, the decision value of a testing data x is computed as i=1 ?i? K(xi , x), which in general requires O(? nd) where n ? is the number of nonzero elements in ?? . Note that for ? kernel SVM problem, we may think ?i is weighted by yi when computing decision value for x. In comparison, linear models only require O(d) prediction time, but usually generate lower prediction accuracy. Nystr?om Approximation. Kernel machines usually do not scale to large-scale applications due to the O(n2 d) operations to compute the kernel matrix and O(n2 ) space to store it in memory. As shown in [14], low-rank approximation of kernel matrix using the Nystr?om method provides an efficient way to scale up kernel machines to millions of instances. Given m  n landmark points {uj }m om method first forms two matrices C ? Rn?m and W ? Rm?m based on the j=1 , the Nystr? kernel function, where Cij = K(xi , uj ) and Wij = K(ui , uj ), and then approximates the kernel matrix as ? := CW ? C T , G?G (3) ? where W denotes the pseudo-inverse of W . By approximating G via Nystr?om method, the kernel machines are usually transformed to linear machines, which can be solved efficiently. Given the model ?, in the testing phase, the decision value of x is evaluated as c(W ? C T ?) = c?, where c = [K(x, u1 ), . . . , K(x, um )], and ? = W ? C T ? can be precomputed and stored. To obtain the prediction on one test sample, Nystr?om approximation only needs O(md) flops to compute c, and O(m) flops to compute the decision value c?, so it becomes an effective ways to improve the prediction speed. However, Nystr?om approximation usually needs more than 100 landmark points to achieve reasonable good accuracy, which is still expensive for large-scale applications. 4 Pseudo Landmark Points for Speeding up Prediction Time In Nystr?om approximation, there is a trade-off in selecting the number of landmark points m. A smaller m means faster prediction speed, but also yields higher kernel approximation error, which results in a lower prediction accuracy. Therefore we want to tackle the following problem ? can we add landmark points without increasing the prediction time? Our solution is to construct extra ?pseudo landmark points? for the kernel approximation. Recall that originally we have m landmark points {uj }m j=1 , and now we add p pseudo landmark points p {v t }t=1 to this set. In this paper, we consider pseudo landmark points are sampled from the training dataset, while in general each pseudo landmark point can be any d-dimensional vector. The only difference between pseudo landmark points and landmark points is that the kernel values K(x, v t ) are computed in a fast but approximate manner in order to speed up the prediction time. We use a regression-based method to approximate {K(x, v t )}pt=1 . Assume for each pseudo landmark point v t , there exists a function ft : Rm ? R, where the input to each ft is the computed kernel values {K(x, uj )}m j=1 , and the output is an estimator of K(x, v t ). We can either design the function for specific kernels, for example, in Section 4.1 we design ft for stationary kernels, or learn ft by regression for general kernels (Section 4.2). Before introducing the design or learning process for {ft }pt=1 , we first describe how to use them to form the Nyst?om approximation.With p pseudo landmark points and {ft }pt=1 given, we can form ? by adding the p extra columns to C: the following a n ? (m + p) matrix C, C? = [C, C 0 ], where C 0 = ft ({K(xi , uj )}m ) ?i = 1, . . . , n and ?t = 1, . . . , p. (4) it j=1 Then the kernel matrix G can be approximated by ? = C? W ? C? T , with W ? = C? ? G(C? ? )T , G?G (5) ? ? ? ? ? ? where C is the pseudo inverse of C; W is the optimal solution to minimize kG ? GkF if G is ? which is also used in [26]. Note that in our case W ? cannot be restricted to the range space of C, 3 obtained by inverting an m + p by m + p matrix as in the original Nystr?om approach in (3), because the kernel values between x and pseudo landmark points are the approximate kernel values. As a result the time to form the Nystr?om approximation in (5) is slower than forming (3) since the whole kernel matrix G has to be computed. ? by minimizing If the number of samples n is too large to compute G, we can estimate the matrix W the approximation error on a submatrix of G. More specifically, we randomly select a submatrix ? is Gsub from G with row/and column indexes I. If we focus on approximating Gsub , the optimal W ? ? T 2 ? ? ? W = (CI,: ) Gsub ((CI,: ) ) , which only requires computation of O(|I| ) kernel elements. ? = W ? we can train a model ? ? C? T ? ? and store the vector ? ? Based on the approximate kernel G, in memory. For a testing sample x, we first compute the kernel values between x and landmarks points c = [K(x, u1 ), . . . , K(x, um )], which usually requires O(md) flops, and then expand c to ? = [c, f1 (c), . . . , fp (c)] based on the p pseudo landmark points an (m + p)-dimensional vector c and the functions {ft }pt=1 . Assume each ft (c) function can be evaluated with O(s) time, then we ? taking O(md + ps) time, where s is much smaller ? and the decision value c ?? can easily compute c than d. Overall, our algorithm can be summarized in Algorithm 1. Algorithm 1: Kernel Approximation with Pseudo Landmark Points Kernel Approximation Steps: Select m landmark points {uj }m j=1 . Compute n ? m matrix C where Cij = K(xi , uj ). Select p pseudo landmark points {v t }pt=1 . Construct p functions {ft }pt=1 by methods in Section 4.1 or Section 4.2. ? by (5). Expand C to C? as C? = [C, C 0 ] by (4), and compute W ? =W ? and precompute ? ? C? T ?. ? ? based on G Training: Compute ? Prediction for a test point x: Compute m dimensional vector c = [K(x, u1 ), . . . , K(x, um )]. ? = [c, f1 (c), . . . , fp (c)]. Compute m + p dimensional vector c ? ??. Decision value: c 4.1 Design the functions for stationary kernels Next we discuss various ways to design/learn the functions {ft }pt=1 . First we consider the stationary kernels K(x, v t ) = ?(kx ? v t k), where the kernel approximation problem can be reduced to estimate kx?v t k with low cost. Suppose we choose p pseudo landmark points {v t }pt=1 by randomly sampling p points in the dataset. By the triangle inequality, max (|kx ? uj k ? kv t ? uj k|) ? kx ? v t k ? min (kx ? uj k + kv t ? uj k) . (6) j j Since kx ? uj k has already been evaluated for all uj (to compute K(x, uj )) and kv t ? uj k can be precomputed, we can use either left hand side or right hand side of (6) to estimate K(x, v t ). We can see that approximating K(x, v t ) using (6) only requires O(m) flops and is more efficient than computing K(x, v t ) from scratch when m  d (d is the dimensionality of data). 4.2 Learning the functions for general kernels Next we consider learning the function ft for general kernels by solving a regression problem. Assume each ft is a degree-D polynomial function (in the paper we only use D = 2). Let Z denote the basis functions: Z = {(i1 , . . . , im ) | i1 + ? ? ? + im = d}, and for each element z (q) ? Z we z (q) z (q) z (q) denote the corresponding polynomial function as Z (q) (c) = c11 c22 . . . cmm . Each ft can then P be written as ft (c) = q atq Z (q) (c). A naive way to apply the pseudo-landmark technique using |Z| polynomial functions is: to learn the optimal coefficients {atq }q=1 for each t, and then compute ? W ? based on (4) and (5). However, this two-step procedure requires a huge amount of training C, time, and the prediction time cannot be improved if |Z| is large. Therefore, we consider implicitly applying the pseudo-landmark point technique. We expand C by 00 C? = [C, C 00 ], where Ciq = Z (q) (ci ). (7) 4 (a) USPS,prediction cost vs approx. (b) Protein,prediction cost vs ap- (c) MNIST,prediction cost vs aperror. prox. error. prox. error. Figure 1: Comparison of different pseudo landmark points strategy. The relative approximation error ? F /kGkF where G and G ? is the real and approximate kernel respectively. We observe that is kG? Gk both Nys-triangle (using the triangular inequality to approximate kernel values) and Nys-dp (using the polynomial expansion with the degree D = 2) can dramatically reduce the approximation error under the same prediction cost. where ci = [K(xi , u1 ), . . . , K(xi , um )] and each Z (q) (?) is the q-th degree-D polynomial basis ? we can then compute W ? = C? ? G(C? ? )T and approximate with q = 1, . . . , |Z|. After forming C, T ? ? ? the kernel by C W C . This procedure is much more efficient than the previous two-step procedure |Z| where we need to learn {atq }q=1 , and more importantly, in the following lemma we show that this approach gives better approximation to the previous two-step procedure. ? W ? are computed by (4), (5) and Lemma 1. If {ft (?)}pt=1 are degree-D polynomial functions, C, T ? W ? are computed by (7), (5), then kG ? C? W ? C? k ? kG ? C? W ? C? T k. C, The proof is in Appendix 7.3. In practice we do not need to form all the low degree polynomial basis ? just sample some of the basis from Z is enough. Figure 1 compares using Nystr?om method with or without pseudo landmark points for approximating Gaussian kernels. For each dataset, we choose a few number of landmark points (2-30), and add pseudo landmark points according the triangular inequality (6) or according to the polynomial function (7). We observe that the kernel approximation error is dramatically reduced under the same prediction cost. Note that we can also apply this pseudo-landmark points approach as a building block in other kernel approximation frameworks, e.g., the Memory Efficient Kernel Approximation (MEKA) proposed in [23]. 5 Weighted Kmeans Sampling with a Divide-and-Conquer Framework In all the related work, Nystr?om approximation is considered as a preprocessing step, which does not incorporate the information from the model itself. In this section, we consider the case that the model ?? for kernel SVM or kernel ridge regression is given, and derive a better approach to select landmark points. The approach can be used in conjunction with divide-and-conquer SVM [8] where an approximate solution to ?? can be computed efficiently. Let ?? be the optimal solution of the kernel machines computed with the original kernel matrix G, ? We derive the following ? be the approximate solution by using approximate kernel matrix G. and ? ? ? ?? k for both kernel SVM and kernel ridge regression: upper bound of k? Theorem 1. Let ?? be the optimal solution for kernel ridge regression with kernel matrix G, and ? obtained by Nystr?om approximation (3), ? is the solution for kernel ridge regression with kernel G ? then n X ? ? ?,i ? G?,i k, ? ? ? k ? ?/? with ? = k? |?i? |kG i=1 ? ?,i and G?,i are the i-th where ? is the regularization parameter in kernel ridge regression, and G ? column of G and G respectively. ? be the solution of Theorem 2. Let ?? be the optimal solution for kernel SVM with kernel G, and ? ? obtained by Nystr?om approximation (3), then kernel SVM with kernel G ? ? ?? k ? ?2 kW k2 (1 + ?)?, k? ? and ? is a positive constant independent on ?? , ?. ? where ? is the largest eigenvalue of G, 5 (8) ? ?? ? ? k can be upper bounded by a The proof is in Appendix 7.4 and 7.5. Here we show that k? weighted kernel approximation error. This result looks natural but has a significant consequence ? to get a good approximate model, we do not need to minimize the kernel approximation error on all the n2 elements of G; instead, the quality of solution is mostly affected by a small portion of columns of G with larger |?i? |. For example, in the kernel SVM problem, ?? is a sparse vector containing many zero elements, and the above bound indicates that we just need to approximate the columns in G with corresponding ?i? 6= 0 accurately. Based on the error bounds, we want to select landmark points for Nystr?om approximation that minimize ?. We focus on the kernel functions that satisfy (K(a, b) ? K(c, d))2 ? CK (ka ? ck2 + kb ? dk2 ), ?a, b, c, d, (9) where CK is a kernel-dependent constant. It has been shown in [29] that all the stationary kernels (K(xi , xj ) = ?(kxi ? xj k)) satisfy (9). Next we show that the weighted kernel approximation error ? is upper bounded by the weighted kmeans objective. Theorem 3. If the kernel function satisfies condition (9), and let u1 , . . . , um be the landmark points ? = CW ? C T ), then for constructing the Nystr?om approximation (G p q p  2 m ? ? (n + nkW ? k k?max ) Ck D? ? {uj }j=1 , where ?max is the upper bound of kernel function, n X  2 D? {ui }m ?i2 kxi ? u?(i) k2 , i=1 := (10) i=1 and ?(i) = argmins kus ? xi k2 is the landmark point closest to xi . m 2 The proof is in Appendix 7.6. Note that D? ? ({ui }i=1 ) is the weighted kmeans objective function ? 2 n with {(?i ) }i=1 as the weights. Combining Theorems 1, 2, and 3, we conclude that for both ? ? ?? k can be upper bounded by kernel SVM and ridge regression, the approximation error k? the weighted kmeans objective function. As a consequence, if ?? is given, we can use weighted kmeans with weights {(?i? )2 }ni=1 to find the landmark points u1 , . . . , um , which tends to minimize the approximation error. In Figure 4 (in the Appendix) we show that for the kernel SVM problem, selecting landmark points by weighted kmeans is a very effective strategy for fast and accurate prediction in real-world datasets. In practice we do not know ?? before training the kernel machines, and exactly computing ?? is very expensive for large-scale datasets. However, using weighted kmeans to select landmark points can be combined with any approximate solvers ? we can use an approximate solver to quickly approximate ?? , and then use it as the weights for the weighted kmeans. Next we show how to combine this approach with the divide-and-conquer framework recently proposed in [8, 7]. Divide and Conquer Approach. The divide-and-conquer SVM (DC-SVM) was proposed in [8] to solve the kernel SVM problem. The main idea is to divide the whole problem into several smaller subproblems, where each subproblem can be solved independently and efficiently. [8] proposed to partition the data points by kernel clustering, but this approach is expensive in terms of prediction efficiency. Therefore we use kmeans clustering in the input space to build the hierarchical clustering. Assume we have k clusters as the leaf nodes, the DC-SVM algorithm computes the solutions {(?(i) )? }ki=1 for each cluster independently. For a testing sample, they use an ?early prediction? scheme, where the testing sample is first assigned to the nearest cluster and then the local model in that cluster is used for prediction. This approach can reduce the prediction time because it only computes the kernel values between the testing sample and all the support vectors in one cluster. However, the model in each cluster may still contain many support vectors, so we propose to approximate the kernel in each cluster by Nystr?om based kernel approximation as mentioned in Section 4 to further reduce the prediction time. In the prediction step we first go through the hierarchical tree to identify the nearest cluster, and then compute the kernel values between the testing sample and the landmark points in that cluster. Finally, we can compute the decision value based on the kernel values and the prediction model. The same idea can be applied to kernel ridge regression. Our overall algorithm ? DC-Pred++ is presented in Algorithm 2. 6 Experimental Results In this section, we compare our proposed algorithm with other fast prediction algorithms for kernel SVM and kernel ridge regression problems. All the experiments are conducted on a machine with 6 Algorithm 2: DC-Pred++: our proposed divide-and-conquer approach for fast Prediction. Input : Training samples {xi }ni=1 , kernel function K. Output: A fast prediction model. Training: Construct a hierarchical clustering tree with k leaf nodes by kmeans. Compute local models {(?(i) )? }ki=1 for each cluster. For each cluster, use weighted kmeans centroids as landmark points. For each cluster, run the proposed kernel approximation with pseudo landmark points (Algorithm 1) and use the approximate kernel to train a local prediction model. Prediction on x: Identify the nearest cluster. Run the prediction phase of Algorithm 1 using local prediction models. Table 1: Comparison of kernel SVM prediction on real datasets. Note that the actual prediction time is normalized by the linear prediction time. For example, 12.8x means the actual prediction time = 12.8? (time for linear SVM prediction time). Dataset Letter ntrain = 12, 000, ntest = 6, 000, d = 16 CovType ntrain = 522, 910, ntest = 58, 102, d = 54 Usps ntrain = 7291, ntest = 2007, d = 256 Webspam ntrain = 280, 000, ntest = 70, 000, d = 254 Kddcup ntrain = 4, 898, 431, ntest = 311, 029, d = 134 a9a ntrain = 32, 561, ntest = 16, 281, d = 123 Metric Prediction Time Accuracy Training Time Prediction Time Accuracy Training Time Prediction Time Accuracy Training Time Prediction Time Accuracy Training Time Prediction Time Accuracy Training Time Prediction Time Accuracy Training Time DC-Pred++ 12.8x 95.90% 1.2s 18.8x 95.19% 372s 14.4x 95.56% 2s 20.5x 98.4% 239s 11.8x 92.3% 154s 12.5x 83.9% 6.3s LDKL 29x 95.78% 243s 35x 89.53% 4095s 12.01x 95.96% 19s 23x 95.15% 2158s 26x 92.2% 997s 32x 81.95% 490s kmeans Nystr?om 140x 87.58% 3.8s 200x 73.63% 1442s 200x 92.53% 4.8s 200x 95.01% 181s 200x 87% 1481s 50x 83.9% 1.28s AESVM 1542x 80.97% 55.2s 3157x 75.81% 204s 5787x 85.97% 55.3s 4375x 98.4% 909s 604x 92.1% 2717s 4859x 81.9% 33.17s STPRtool 50x 85.9% 47.7s 50x 82.14% 77400s 50x 93.6% 34.5s 50x 91.6% 32571s 50x 89.8% 4925s 50x 82.32% 69.1s Fastfood 50x 89.9% 15s 60x 66.8% 256s 80x 94.39% 12s 80x 96.7% 1621s 80x 91.1% 970s 80 61.9% 59.9s an Intel 2.83GHz CPU with 32G RAM. Note that the prediction cost is shown as actual prediction time dividing by the linear model?s prediction time. This measurement is more robust to the actual hardware configuration and provides a comparison with the linear methods. 6.1 Kernel SVM We use six public datasets (shown in Table 1) for the comparison of kernel SVM prediction time. The parameters ?, C are selected by cross validation, and the detailed description of parameters for other competitors are shown in Appendix 7.1. We compare with the following methods: 1. DC-Pred++: Our proposed framework, which involves Divide-and-Conquer strategy and applies weighted kmeans to select landmark points and then uses these landmark points to generate pseudo-landmark points in Nystr?om approximation for fast prediction. 2. LDKL: The Local Deep Kernel Learning method proposed in [10]. They learn a tree-based primal feature embedding to achieve faster prediction speed. 3. Kmeans Nystr?om: The Nystr?om approximation using kmeans centroids as landmark points [29]. The resulting linear SVM problem is solved by LIBLINEAR [6]. 4. AESVM: Approximate Extreme points SVM solver proposed in [19]. It uses a preprocessing step to filter out unimportant points to get a smaller model. 5. Fastfood: Random Hadamard features for kernel approximation [16]. 6. STPRtool: The kernel computation toolbox that implemented the reduced-set post processing approach using the greedy iterative solver proposed in [22]. Note that [10] reported that LDKL achieves much faster prediction speed compared with Locally Linear SVM [15], and reduced set methods [9, 3, 13], so we omit their comparisons here. The results presented in Table 1 show that DC-Pred++ achieves the best prediction efficiency and accuracy in 5 of the 6 datasets. In general, DC-Pred++ takes less than half of the prediction time and 7 (a) Letter (b) Covtype (c) Kddcup Figure 2: Comparison between our proposed method and LDKL for fast prediction in kernel SVM problem.x-axis is the prediction cost and y-axis shows the prediction accuracy. For results on more datasets, please see Figure 5 in the Appendix. (a) Cadata (b) YearPredictionMSD (c) mnist2M Figure 3: Kernel ridge regression results for various datasets. x-axis is the prediction cost and y-axis shows the Test RMSE. All the results are averaged over five independent runs. For results on more datasets, please see Figure 7 in the Appendix. can still achieve better accuracy than LDKL. Interestingly, in terms of the training time, DC-Pred++ is almost 10 times faster than LDKL on most of the datasets. Since LDKL is the most competitive method, we further show the comparison with LDKL by varying the prediction cost in Figure 2. The results show that on 5 datasets DC-Pred++ achieves better prediction accuracy using the same prediction time. Note that our approach is an improvement over the divide-and-conquer SVM (DC-SVM) proposed in [8], therefore we further compare DC-Pred++ with DC-SVM in Appendix 7.8. The results clearly demonstrate that DC-Pred++ achieves faster prediction speed, and the main reason is due to the two innovations presented in this paper ? adding pseudo landmark points and weighted kmeans to select landmark points to improve Nystr?om approximation. Finally, we also present the trade-off of two parameters in our algorithm, number of clusters and number of landmark points, in Appendix 7.9. dataset ntrain ntest d 6.2 Cpusmall 6,553 1,639 12 Table 2: Dataset statistics Cadata Census YearPredictionMSD 16,521 18,277 463,715 4,128 4,557 51,630 137 8 90 mnist2M 1,500,000 500,000 800 Kernel Ridge Regression We further demonstrate the benefits of DC-Pred++ for fast prediction in kernel ridge regression problem on five public datasets listed in Table 2. Note that for mnist2M, we perform regression on two digits and set the target variables to be 0 and 1. We compare DC-Pred++ with other four state-of-the-art kernel approximation methods for kernel ridge regression including the standard Nystrom(Nys)[5], Kmeans Nystrom(KNys)[28], Random Kitchen Sinks(RKS)[21], and Fastfood [16]. All experimental results are based on Gaussian kernel. It is unclear how to generalize LDKL for kernel ridge regression, so we do not compare with LDKL here. The parameters used are chosen by five fold cross-validation (see Appendix 7.1). Figure 3 presents the Test RMSE(root mean squared error on the test data) by varying the prediction cost. To control the prediction cost, for Nys, KNys, and DC-Pred++, we vary the number of landmark points, and for RKS and fastfood, we vary the number of random features. In Figure 3, we can observe that with the same prediction cost, DC-Pred++ always yields lower Test RMSE than other methods. Acknowledgements This research was supported by NSF grants CCF-1320746 and CCF-1117055. C.-J.H also acknowledges support from an IBM PhD fellowship. 8 References [1] Y.-W. Chang, C.-J. Hsieh, K.-W. Chang, M. Ringgaard, and C.-J. Lin. Training and testing low-degree polynomial data mappings via linear SVM. JMLR, 11:1471?1490, 2010. [2] M. Cossalter, R. Yan, and L. Zheng. Adaptive kernel approximation for large-scale non-linear svm prediction. In ICML, 2011. [3] A. Cotter, S. Shalev-Shwartz, and N. Srebro. Learning optimally sparse support vector machines. In ICML, 2013. [4] P. Drineas, R. Kannan, and M. W. Mahoney. Fast monte carlo algorithms for matrices iii: Computing a compressed approximate matrix decomposition. SIAM J. Comput., 36(1):184?206, 2006. [5] P. Drineas and M. W. Mahoney. On the Nystr?om method for approximating a Gram matrix for improved kernel-based learning. JMLR, 6:2153?2175, 2005. [6] R.-E. Fan, K.-W. Chang, C.-J. Hsieh, X.-R. Wang, and C.-J. Lin. LIBLINEAR: A library for large linear classification. JMLR, 9:1871?1874, 2008. [7] C.-J. Hsieh, I. S. Dhillon, P. Ravikumar, and A. Banerjee. A divide-and-conquer method for sparse inverse covariance estimation. In NIPS, 2012. [8] C.-J. Hsieh, S. Si, and I. S. Dhillon. A divide-and-conquer solver for kernel support vector machines. In ICML, 2014. [9] T. Joachims and C.-N. Yu. Sparse kernel svms via cutting-plane training. Machine Learning, 76(2):179? 193, 2009. [10] C. Jose, P. Goyal, P. Aggrwal, and M. Varma. Local deep kernel learning for efficient non-linear svm prediction. In ICML, 2013. [11] H. G. Jung and G. Kim. Support vector number reduction: Survey and experimental evaluations. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 2014. [12] P. Kar and H. Karnick. Random feature maps for dot product kernels. In AISTATS, 2012. [13] S. S. Keerthi, O. Chapelle, and D. DeCoste. Building support vector machines with reduced classifier complexity. JMLR, 7:1493?1515, 2006. [14] S. Kumar, M. Mohri, and A. Talwalkar. Ensemble Nystr?om methods. In NIPS, 2009. [15] L. Ladicky and P. H. S. Torr. Locally linear support vector machines. In ICML, 2011. [16] Q. V. Le, T. Sarlos, and A. J. Smola. Fastfood ? approximating kernel expansions in loglinear time. In ICML, 2013. [17] Y.-J. Lee and O. L. Mangasarian. RSVM: Reduced support vector machines. In SDM, 2001. [18] S. Maji, A. C. Berg, and J. Malik. Efficient classification for additive kernel svms. IEEE PAMI, 35(1), 2013. [19] M. Nandan, P. R. Khargonekar, and S. S. Talathi. Fast svm training using approximate extreme points. JMLR, 15:59?98, 2014. [20] D. Pavlov, D. Chudova, and P. Smyth. Towards scalable support vector machines using squashing. In KDD, pages 295?299, 2000. [21] A. Rahimi and B. Recht. Random features for large-scale kernel machines. In NIPS, pages 1177?1184, 2007. [22] B. Sch?olkopf, P. Knirsch, A. J. Smola, and C. J. C. Burges. Fast approximation of support vector kernel expansions, and an interpretation of clustering as approximation in feature spaces. In Mustererkennung 1998?20. DAGM-Symposium, Informatik aktuell, pages 124?132, Berlin, 1998. Springer. [23] S. Si, C.-J. Hsieh, and I. S. Dhillon. Memory efficient kernel approximation. In ICML, 2014. [24] I. Tsang, J. Kwok, and P. Cheung. Core vector machines: Fast SVM training on very large data sets. JMLR, 6:363?392, 2005. [25] P.-W. Wang and C.-J. Lin. Iteration complexity of feasible descent methods for convex optimization. JMLR, 15:1523?1548, 2014. [26] S. Wang and Z. Zhang. Improving cur matrix decomposition and the nystr?om approximation via adaptive sampling. JMLR, 14:2729?2769, 2013. [27] C. K. I. Williams and M. Seeger. Using the Nystr?om method to speed up kernel machines. In T. Leen, T. Dietterich, and V. Tresp, editors, NIPS, 2001. [28] K. Zhang and J. T. Kwok. Clustered Nystr?om method for large scale manifold learning and dimension reduction. Trans. Neur. Netw., 21(10):1576?1587, 2010. [29] K. Zhang, I. W. Tsang, and J. T. Kwok. Improved Nystr?om low rank approximation and error analysis. In ICML, 2008. 9
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Testing Unfaithful Gaussian Graphical Models Sekhar Tatikonda Department of Electrical Engineering Yale University 17 Hillhouse Ave, New Haven, CT 06511 sekhar.tatikonda@yale.edu De Wen Soh Department of Electrical Engineering Yale University 17 Hillhouse Ave, New Haven, CT 06511 dewen.soh@yale.edu Abstract The global Markov property for Gaussian graphical models ensures graph separation implies conditional independence. Specifically if a node set S graph separates nodes u and v then Xu is conditionally independent of Xv given XS . The opposite direction need not be true, that is, Xu ? Xv | XS need not imply S is a node separator of u and v. When it does, the relation Xu ? Xv | XS is called faithful. In this paper we provide a characterization of faithful relations and then provide an algorithm to test faithfulness based only on knowledge of other conditional relations of the form Xi ? Xj | XS . 1 Introduction Graphical models [1, 2, 3] are a popular and important means of representing certain conditional independence relations between random variables. In a Gaussian graphical model, each variable is associated with a node in a graph, and any two nodes are connected by an undirected edge if and only if their two corresponding variables are independent conditioned on the rest of the variables. An edge between two nodes therefore corresponds directly to the non-zero entries of the precision matrix ? = ??1 , where ? is the covariance matrix of the multivariate Gaussian distribution in question. With the graphical model defined in this way, the Gaussian distribution satisfies the global Markov property: for any pair of nodes i and j, if all paths between the two pass through a set of nodes S, then the variables associated with i and j are conditionally independent given the variables associated with S. The converse of the global Markov property does not always hold. When it does hold for a conditional independence relation, that relation is called faithful. If it holds for all relations in a model, that model is faithful. Faithfulness is important in structural estimation of graphical models, that is, identifying the zeros of ?. It can be challenging to simply invert ?. With faithfulness, to determine an edge between nodes i and j, one could run through all possible separator sets S and test for conditional independence. If S is small, the computation becomes more accurate. In the work of [4, 5, 6, 7], different assumptions are used to bound S to this end. The main problem of faithfulness in graphical models is one of identifiability. Can we distinguish between a faithful graphical model and an unfaithful one? The idea of faithfulness was first explored for conditional independence relations that were satisfied in a family of graphs, using the notion of ?-Markov perfectness [8, 9]. For Gaussian graphical models with a tree topology the the distribution has been shown to be faithful [10, 11]. In directed graphical models, the class of unfaithful distributions has been studied in [12, 13]. In [14, 15], a notion of strong-faithfulness as a means of relaxing the conditions of faithfulness is defined. In this paper, we study the identifiability of a conditional independence relation. In [6], the authors restrict their study of Gaussians to walk-summable ones. In [7], the authors restrict their class of distributions to loosely connected Markov random fields. These restrictions are such that the 1 local conditional independence relations imply something about the global structure of the graphical model. In our discussion, we assume no such restrictions. We provide a testable condition for the faithfulness of a conditional independence relation in a Gaussian undirected graphical model. Checking this condition requires only using other conditional independence relations in the graph. We can think of these conditional independence relations as local patches of the covariance matrix ?. To check if a local patch reflects the global graph (that is, a local path is faithful) we have to make use of other local patches. Our algorithm is the first algorithm, to the best of our knowledge, that is able to distinguish between faithful and unfaithful conditional independence relations without any restrictions on the topology or assumptions on spatial mixing of the Gaussian graphical model. This paper is structured as follows: In Section 2, we discuss some preliminaries. In Section 3, we state our main theorem and proofs, as well as key lemmas used in the proofs. In Section 4, we lay out an algorithm that detects unfaithful conditional independence relations in Gaussian graphical models using only local patches of the covariance matrix. We also describe a graph learning algorithm for unfaithful graphical models. In Section 5, we discuss possible future directions of research. 2 Preliminaries We first define some linear algebra and graph notation. For a matrix M , let M T denote its transpose and let |M | denote its determinant. If I is a subset of its row indices and J a subset of its column indices, then we define the submatrix M IJ as the |I| ? |J| matrix with elements with both row and column indices from I and J respectively. If I = J, we use the notation M I for convenience. Let M (?i, ?j) be the submatrix of M with the i-th row and j-th column deleted. Let M (?I, ?J) be the submatrix with rows with indices from I and columns with indices from J removed. In the same way, for a vector v, we define v I to be the subvector of v with indices from I. Similarly, we define v(?I) to be the subvector of v with indices not from I. For two vectors v and w, we denote the usual dot product by v ? w. Let G = (W, E) be an undirected graph, where W = {1, . . . , n} is the set of nodes and E is the set of edges, namely, a subset of the set of all unordered pairs {(u, v) | u, v ? W}. In our paper we are dealing with graphs that have no self-loops and no multiple edges between the same pair of nodes. For I ? W, we denote the induced subgraph on nodes I by GI . For any two distinct nodes u and v, we say that the node set S ? W \ {u, v} is a node separator of u and v if all paths from u to v must pass through some node in S. Let X = (X1 , . . . , Xn ) be a multivariate Gaussian distribution with mean ? and covariance matrix ?. Let ? = ??1 be the precision or concentration matrix of the graph. For any set S ? W, we define X S = {Xi | i ? S}. We note here that ?uv = 0 if and only if Xu is independent of Xv , which we denote by Xu ? Xv . If Xu is independent of Xv conditioned on some random variable Z, we denote this independence relation by Xu ? Xv | Z. Note that ?uv = 0 if and only if Xu ? Xv | X W\{u,v} . For any set S ? W, the conditional distribution of X W\S given X S = xS follows a multivariate Gaussian distribution with conditional mean ?W\S ? ?(W\S)S ??1 S (xS ? ?S ) and conditional covariance matrix ?W\S ? ?(W\S)S ??1 ? . For distinct nodes u, v ? W and any set S(W\S) S S ? W \ {u, v}, the following property easily follows. Proposition 1 Xu ? Xv | X S if and only if ?uv = ?uS ??1 S ?Sv . The concentration graph G? = (W, E) of a multivariate Gaussian distribution X is defined as follows: We have node set W = {1, . . . , n}, with random variable Xu associated with node u, and edge set E where unordered pair (u, v) is in E if and only if ?uv 6= 0. The multivariate Gaussian distribution, along with its concentration graph, is also known as a Gaussian graphical model. Any Gaussian graphical model satisfies the global Markov property, that is, if S is a node separator of nodes u and v in G? , then Xu ? Xv | X S . The converse is not necessarily true, and therefore, this motivates us to define faithfulness in a graphical model. Definition 1 The conditional independence relation Xu ? Xv | X S is said to be faithful if S is a node separator of u and v in the concentration graph G? . Otherwise, it is unfaithful. A multivari2 Figure 1: Even though ?S?{u,v} is a submatrix of ?, G?S?{u,v} need not be a subgraph of G? . Edge properties do not translate as well. That means the local patch ?S?{u,v} need not reflect the edge properties of the global graph structure of ?. ate Gaussian distribution is faithful if all its conditional independence relations are faithful. The distribution is unfaithful if it is not faithful. Example 1 (Example of an unfaithful Gaussian distribution) Consider the multivariate Gaussian distribution X = (X1 , X2 , X3 , X4 ) with zero mean and positive definite covariance matrix ? ? 3 2 1 2 ?2 4 2 1? ?=? . (1) 1 2 7 1? 2 1 1 6 By Proposition 1, we have X1 ? X3 | X2 since ?13 = ?12 ??1 22 ?23 . However, the precision matrix ? = ??1 has no zero entries, so the concentration graph is a complete graph. This means that node 2 is not a node separator of nodes 1 and 3. The independence relation X1 ? X3 | X2 is thus not faithful and the distribution X is not faithful as well. We can think of the submatrix ?S?{u,v} as a local patch of the covariance matrix ?. When Xu ? Xv | X S , nodes u and v are not connected by an edge in the concentration graph of the local patch ?S?{u,v} , that is, we have (??1 S?{u,v} )uv = 0. This does not imply that u and v are not connected in the concentration graph G? . If Xu ? Xv | X S is faithful, then the implication follows. If Xu ? Xv | X S is unfaithful, then u and v may be connected in G? (See Figure 1). Faithfulness is important in structural estimation, especially in high-dimensional settings. If we assume faithfulness, then finding a node set S such that Xu ? Xv | X S would imply that there is no edge between u and v in the concentration graph. When we have access only to the sample covariance instead of the population covariance matrix, if the size of S is small compared to n, the error of computing Xu ? Xv | X S is much less than the error of inverting the entire covariance matrix. This method of searching through all possible node separator sets of a certain size is employed in [6, 7]. As mention before, these authors impose other restrictions on their models to overcome the problem of unfaithfulness. We do not place any restriction on the Gaussian models. However, we do not provide probabilistic bounds when dealing with samples, which they do. 3 Main Result In this section, we will state our main theoretical result. This result is the backbone for our algorithm that differentiates a faithful conditional independence relation from an unfaithful one. Our main goal is to decide if a conditional independence relation Xu ? Xv | X S is faithful or not. For convenience, we will denote G? simply by G = (W, E) for the rest of this paper. Now let us suppose that it is faithful; S is a node separator for u and v in G. Then we should not be able to find a path from u to v in the induced subgraph GW\S . The main idea therefore is to search for a path between u and v in GW\S . If this fails, then we know that the conditional independence relation is faithful. By the global Markov property, for any two distinct nodes i, j ? W \ S, if Xi 6? Xj | X S , then we know that there is a path between i and j in GW\S . Thus, if we find some w ? W \ (S ? {i, j}) such that Xu 6? Xw | X S and Xv 6? Xw | X S , then a path exists from u to w and another exists from v to w, so u and v are connected in GW\S . This would imply that Xu ? Xv | X S is unfaithful. 3 However, testing for paths this way does not necessarily rule out all possible paths in GW\S . The problem is that some paths may be obscured by other unfaithful conditional independence relations. There may be some w whereby Xu 6? Xw | X S and Xv ? Xw | X S , but the latter relation is unfaithful. This path from u to v through w is thus not detected by these two independence relations. We will show however, that if there is no path from u to v in GW\S , then we cannot find a series of distinct nodes w1 , . . . , wt ? W \ (S ? {u, v}) for some natural number t > 0 such that Xu 6? Xw1 | X S , Xw1 6? Xw2 | X S , . . ., Xwt?1 6? Xwt | X S , Xwk 6? Xv | X S . This is to be expected because of the global Markov property. What is more surprising about our result is that the converse is true. If we cannot find such nodes w1 , . . . , wt , then u and v are not connected by a path in GW\S . This means that if there is a path from u to v in GW\S , even though it may be hidden by some unfaithful conditional independence relations, ultimately there are enough conditional dependence relations to reveal that u and v are connected by a path in GW\S . This gives us an equivalent condition for faithfulness that is in terms of conditional independence relations. Not being able to find a series of nodes w1 , . . . , wt that form a string of conditional dependencies from u to v as described in the previous paragraph is equivalent to the following: we can find a partition (U, V ) of W \ S with u ? U and v ? V such that for all i ? U and j ? V , we have Xi ? Xj | X S . Our main result uses the existence of this partition as a test for faithfulness. Theorem 1 Let X = (X1 , . . . , Xn ) be a Gaussian distribution with mean zero, covariance matrix ? and concentration matrix ?. Let u, v be two distinct elements of W and S ? W \ {i, j} such that Xu ? Xv | X S . Then Xu ? Xv | X S is faithful if and only if there exists a partition of W \ S into two disjoint sets U and V such that u ? U , v ? V , and Xi ? Xj | X S for any i ? U and j ? V . Proof of Theorem 1 . One direction is easy. Suppose Xu ? Xv | X S is faithful and S separates u and v in G. Let U be the set of all nodes reachable from u in GW\S including u. Let V = {W \ S ? U }. Then v ? V since S separates u and v in G. Also, for any i ? U and j ? V , S separates i and j in G, and by the global Markov property, Xi ? Xj | X S . Next, we prove the opposite direction. Suppose that there exists a partition of W \ S into two sets U and V such that u ? U , v ? V , and Xi ? Xj | X S . for any i ? U and j ? V . Our goal is to show that S separates u and v in the concentration graph G of X. Let ?W\S = ?0 where the latter is the submatrix of the precision matrix ?. Let the h-th column vector of ?0 be ? (h) , for h = 1, . . . , |W \ S|. Step 1: We first solve the trivial case where |U | = |V | = 1. If |U | = |V | = 1, then S = W \ {u, v}, and trivially, Xu ? Xv | X W\{u,v} implies S separates u and v, and we are done. Thus, we assume for the rest of the proof that U and V cannot both be size one. Step 2: We deal with a second trivial case in our proof, which is the case where ? (i) (?i) is identically zero for any i ? U . In the case where i = u, we have ?uj = 0 for all j ? W \ (S ? {u}). This implies that u is an isolated node in GW\S , and so trivially, S must separate u and v, and we are done. In the case where i 6= u, we can manipulate the sets U and V so that ? (i) (?i) is not identically zero for any i ? U, i 6= u. If there is some i0 ? U , i0 6= u, such that Xi0 ? Xh | X S for all h ? U , h 6= i0 , then we can simply move i0 from U into V to form a new partition (U 0 , V 0 ) of W \ S. This new partition still satisfies u ? U 0 , v ? V 0 , and Xi ? Xj | X S for all i ? U 0 and j ? V 0 . We can therefore shift nodes one by one over from U to V until either |U | = 1, or for any i ? U , i 6= u, there exists an h ? U such that Xi 6? Xh | X S . By the global Markov property, this assumption implies that every node i ? U , i 6= u is connected by a path to some node in U , which means it must connected to some node in W \ (S ? {i}) by an edge. Thus, for all i ? U , i 6= u, the vector ? (i) (?i) is non-zero. Step 3: We can express the conditional independence relations in terms of elements in the precision matrix ?, since the topology of G can be read off the non-zero entries of ?. The proof of the following Lemma 1 uses the matrix block inversion formula and we omit the proof due to space. Lemma 1 Xi ? Xj | X S if and only if |?0 (?i, ?j)| = 0. From Lemma 1, observe that the conditional independence relations Xi ? Xj | X S are all statements about the cofactors of the matrix ?0 . It follows immediately from Lemma 1 that the vector 4 sets {? (h) (?i) : h ? W \ S, h 6= j} are linearly dependent for all i ? U and j ? V . Each of these vector sets consists of the i-th entry truncated column vectors of ?0 , with the j-th column vector excluded. Assume that the matrix ?0 is partitioned as follows,   ?U U ?U V 0 ? = . (2) ?V U ?V V The strategy of this proof is to use these linear dependencies to show that the submatrix ?V U has to be zero. This would imply that for any node in U , it is not connected to any node in V by an edge. Therefore, S is a node separator of u and v in G, which is our goal. Step 4: Let us fix i ? U . Consider the vector sets of the form {? (h) (?i) : h ? W \ S, h 6= j}, j ? V . There are |V | such sets. The intersection of these sets is the vector set {? (h) (?i) : h ? U }. We want to use the |V | linearly dependent vector sets to say something about the linear dependency of {? (h) (?i) : h ? U }. With that in mind, we have the following lemmas. Lemma 2 The vector set {? (h) (?i) : h ? U } is linearly dependent for any i ? U . Step 5: Our final step is to show that these linear dependencies imply that ?U V = 0. We now have |U | vector sets {? (h) (?i) : h ? U } that are linearly dependent. These sets are truncated versions of the vector set {? (h) : h ? U }, and they are specifically truncated by taking out entries only in U and not in V . The set {? (h) : h ? U } must be linearly independent since ?0 is invertible. Observe that the entries of ?V U are contained in {? (h) (?i) : h ? U } for all i ? U . We can now use these vector sets to say something about the entries of ?V U . (i) Lemma 3 The vector components ? j = ?ij are zero for all i ? U and j ? V . This implies that any node in U is not connected to any node in V by an edge. Therefore, S separates u and v in G and the relation X u ? X v | X S is faithful.  4 Algorithm for Testing Unfaithfulness In this section, we will describe a novel algorithm for testing faithfulness of a conditional independence relation Xu ? Xv | X S . The algorithm tests the necessary and sufficient conditions for faithfulness, namely, that we can find a partition (U, V ) of W \ S such that u ? U, v ? V , and Xi ? Xj | X S for all i ? U and j ? V . Algorithm 1 (Testing Faithfulness) Input covariance matrix ?. ? E}, ? where W ? = W \ S and E? = {(i, j) : i, j ? W \ S, Xi 6? 1. Define new graph G? = {W, Xj | X S , i 6= j}. ? that are connected to u by a path in G, ? 2. Generate set U to be the set of all nodes in W including u. (A breadth-first search could be used.) ? output Xu ? Xv | X S as unfaithful. 3. If v ? U , there exists a path from u to v in G, ? \ U . Output Xu ? Xv | X S as faithful. 4. If v ? / U , let V = W If we consider each test of whether two nodes are conditionally independent given X S as one step, the running time of the algorithm is the that of the algorithm used to determine set U . If a breadthfirst search is used, the running time is O(|W \ S|2 |). Theorem 2 Suppose Xu ? Xv | X S . If S is a node separator of u and v in the concentration graph, then Algorithm 1 will classify Xu ? Xv | X S as faithful. Otherwise, Algorithm 1 will classify Xu ? Xv | X S as unfaithful. Proof. If Algorithm 1 determines that Xu ? Xv | X S is faithful, that means that it has found a partition (U, V ) of W \ S such that u ? U , v ? V , and Xi ? Xj | X S for any i ? U and 5 Figure 2: The concentration graph of the distribution in Example 4. j ? V . By Theorem 1, this implies that Xu ? Xv | X S is faithful and so Algorithm 1 is correct. If Algorithm 1 decides that Xu ? Xv | X S is unfaithful, it does so by finding a series of nodes w`1 , . . . , w`t ? W \ (S ? {u, v}) for some natural number t > 0 such that Xu 6? Xw`1 | X S , Xw`1 6? Xw`2 | X S , . . ., Xw`t?1 6? Xw`t | X S , Xwk 6? Xv | X S , where `1 , . . . , `t are t distinct indices from R. By the global Markov property, this means that u is connected to v by a path in G, so this implies that Xu ? Xv | X S is unfaithful and Algorithm 1 is correct.  Example 2 (Testing an Unfaithful Distribution (1)) Let us take a look again at the 4-dimensional Gaussian distribution in Example 1. Suppose we want to test if X1 ? X3 | X2 is faithful or not. From its covariance matrix, we have ?14 ? ?12 ??1 2 ?24 = 2 ? 2 ? 1/4 = 3/2 6= 0, so this implies that X1 6? X4 | X2 . Similarly, X3 6? X4 | X2 . So there exists a path from X1 to X3 in G{1,3,4} (it is trivially the edge (1, 3)), so the relation X1 ? X3 | X2 is unfaithful. Example 3 (Testing an Unfaithful Distribution (2)) Consider a 6-dimensional Gaussian distribution X = (X1 , . . . , X6 ) that has the covariance matrix ? ? 7 1 2 2 3 4 ?1 8 2 1 2.25 3 ? ? ? 2 10 4 3 8? ?2 ?=? . (3) 1 4 9 1 6? ?2 ? ?3 2.25 3 1 11 ? 9 4 3 8 6 9 12 We want to test if the relation X1 ? X2 | X6 is faithful or unfaithful. Working out the necessary conditional independence relations to obtain G? with S = {6}, we observed that (1, 3), (3, 5), (5, 4), (4, 2) ? E? This means that 2 is reachable from 1 in G, so the relation is unfaithful. In fact, the concentration graph is the complete graph K6 , and 6 is not a node separator of 1 and 2. Example 4 (Testing a Faithful Distribution) We consider a 6-dimensional Gaussian distribution X = (X1 , . . . , X6 ) that has a covariance matrix which is similar to the distribution in Example 3, ? ? 7 1 2 2 3 4 ?1 8 2 1 2.25 3 ? ? ? 2 10 4 6 8? ?2 ?=? . (4) 1 4 9 1 6? ?2 ? ?3 2.25 6 1 11 9? 4 3 8 6 9 12 Observe that only ?35 is changed. We again test the relation X1 ? X2 | X6 . Running the algorithm produces a viable partition with U = {1, 3} and V = {2, 4, 5}. This agrees with the concentration graph, as shown in Figure 2. We include now an algorithm that learns the topology of a class of (possibly) unfaithful Gaussian graphical models using local patches. Let us fix a natural number K < n ? 2. We consider graphical models that satisfy the following assumption: for any nodes i and j that are not connected by an edge in G, there exists a vertex set S with |S| ? K such that S is a vertex separator of i and j. Certain graphs have this property, including graphs with bounded degree and some random graphs with high probability, like the Erd?os-Renyi graph. The following algorithm learns the edges of a graphical model that satisfies the above assumptions. Algorithm 2 (Edge Learning) Input covariance matrix ?. For each node pair (i, j), 6 1. Let F = {S ? W \ {i, j} : |S| = K, Xi ? Xj | X S , and it is faithful}. 2. If F 6= ?, output (i, j) ? / E. If F = ?, output (i, j) ? E. 3. Output E. Again, considering a computation of a conditional independence relation as one step, the running  time of the algorithm is O(nK+4 ). Thiscomes from exhaustively checking through all n?2 possiK ble separation sets S for each of the n2 (i, j) pairs. Each time there is a conditional independence relation, we have to check for faithfulness using Algorithm 1, and the running time for that is O(n2 ). The novelty of the algorithm is in its ability to learn graphical models that are unfaithful. Theorem 3 Algorithm 2 recovers the concentration graph G. Proof. If F 6= ?, F is non-empty so there exists an S such that Xi ? Xj | X S is faithful. Therefore, S separates i and j in G and (i, j) ? / E. If F = ?, then for any S ? W, |S| ? K, we have either Xi 6? Xj | X S or Xi ? Xj | X S but it is unfaithful. In both cases, S does not separate i and j in G, for any S ? W, |S| ? K. By the assumption on the graphical model, (i, j) must be in E. This shows that Algorithm 2 will correctly output the edges of G.  5 Conclusion We have presented an equivalence condition for faithfulness in Gaussian graphical models and an algorithm to test whether a conditional independence relation is faithful or not. Gaussian distributions are special because its conditional independence relations depend on its covariance matrix, whose inverse, the precision matrix, provides us with a graph structure. The question of faithfulness in other Markov random fields, like Ising models, is an area of study that has much to be explored. The same questions can be asked, such as when unfaithful conditional independence relations occur, and whether they can be identified. In the future, we plan to extend some of these results to other Markov random fields. Determining statistical guarantees is another important direction to explore. 6 6.1 Appendix Proof of Lemma 2 Case 1: |V | = 1. In this case, |U | > 1 since |U | and |V | cannot both be one. the vector set {? (h) (?i) : h ? W \ S, h 6= j} is the vector set {? (h) (?i) : h ? U }. Case 2: |V | > 1. Let us fix i ? U . Note that ? (i) (?j) 6= 0 for all j ? W \ (S ? {i}), since the (i) diagonal entries of a positive definite matrix are non-zero, that is, ? i 6= 0. Also, ? (i) (?i) 6= 0 for all i ? U as well by Step 2 of the proof of Theorem 1. As such, the linear dependency of (i,j) {? (h) (?i) : h ? W \ S, h 6= j} for any i ? U and j ? V implies that there exists scalars c1 , . . ., (i,j) (i,j) (i,j) cj?1 , cj+1 , . . ., c|W\S| such that X (i,j) ch ? (h) (?i) = 0. (5) 1?h?|W\S|,h6=j (i,j) If ci = 0, the vector set {? (h) (?i) : 1 ? h ? |W \ S|, h 6= u, j} is linearly dependent. This implies that the principal submatrix ?0 (?i, ?i) has zero determinant, which contradicts ?0 being (i,j) positive definite. Thus, we have ci 6= 0 for all i ? U and j ? V . For each i ? U and j ? V , this allows us to manipulate (5) such that w(i) (?i) is expressed in terms of the other vectors in (5). (i,j) ?1 ?(i,j) = [ci More precisely, let c ] (i,j) (c1 (i,j) (i,j) (i,j) (i,j) (i,j) , . . . , ci?1 , ci+1 , . . . , cj?1 , cj+1 , . . . , c|W\S| ), for i ? U and j ? V . Note that ?0 (?j, ?{i, j}) has the form [? (1) (?i), . . ., ? (i?1) (?i), ? (i+1) (?i), . . ., ? (j?1) (?i), ? (j+1) (?i), . . ., ? (|W\S|) (?i)], where the vectors in the notation described above are column vectors. From (5), for any distinct j1 , j2 ? V , we can generate equations ? (i) (?i) = ?0 (?j1 , ?{i.j1 })? c(i,j1 ) = ?0 (?j2 , ?{i, j2 })? c(i,j2 ) , 7 (6) or effectively, ?0 (?j1 , ?{i.j1 })? c(i,j1 ) ? ?0 (?j2 , ?{i, j2 })? c(i,j2 ) = 0. (7) This is a linear equation in terms of the column vectors {? (h) (?i) : h 6= i, h ? W}. These vectors must be linear independent, otherwise |?0 (?i, ?i)| = 0. Therefore, the coefficient of each of the (i,j ) (i,j ) vectors must be zero. Specifically, the coefficient of ? (j2 ) (?i) in 7 is cj2 1 /ci 1 is zero, which (i,j1 ) implies that cj2 (i,j2 ) is zero, as required. Similarly, cj1 j1 , j2 ? V , this implies that for any j ? V , (i,j) ch is zero as well. Since this holds for any = 0 for all h ? V, h 6= j. There are now two cases to consider. The first is where |U | = 1. Here, i = u. Then, by (5), (u,j) ch = 0 for all distinct j, h ? V implies that ? u (?u) = 0, which is a contradiction. Therefore (i,j) |U | 6= 1, so |U | must be greater than 1. We then substitute ch = 0, for all distinct j, h ? V , into (5) to deduce that {? (h) (?i) : h ? U } is indeed linearly dependent for any i ? U .  6.2 Proof of Lemma 3 Let |U | = k > 1 We arrange the indices of the column vectors of ?0 so that U = {1, . . . , k}. For each i ? U , since {? (h) (?i) : h ? U } is linearly dependent and {? (h) : h ? U } is linearly indepenPk (i) (i) (i) dent, there exists a non-zero vector d(i) = (d1 , . . . , dk ) ? Rk such that h=1 di ? (h) (?i) = 0. (1) (k) (i) Let y (i) = (? i , . . . , ? i ) ? Rk . Note that y (i) = ? U , since ?0 is symmetric, and so is a non-zero vector for all i = 1, . . . , k. Because ? (1) , . . . , ? (k) are linearly independent, for each i = 1, . . . , k, we have d(i) ? y (h) = 0 for all h 6= i, h ? U and d(i) ? y (i) 6= 0. We next show that vectors d(1) , . . . , d(k) are linearly independent. Suppose that they are not. Then there exists some index i ? U and scalars a1 , . . . , ai?1 , ai+1 , . . . , ak not all zeros, such that d(i) = P P (j) (i) ? y (i) = 1?h?k,j6=i ah d(j) ? y (i) = 0, a contradiction. 1?j?k,j6=i aj d . We then have 0 6= d Therefore, d(1) , . . . , d(k) are linearly independent. (1) (k) For each j such that k+1 ? j ? |W \S| (that is, j ? V ), let us define y j = (? j , . . . , ? j ). Let us fix j. Observe that d(h) ? y j = 0 for all h = 1, . . . , k. Since d(1) , . . . , d(k) are linearly independent, this implies that y j is the zero vector. Since this holds for all j such that k + 1 ? j ? |W \ S|, (i) therefore, ? j = 0 for all 1 ? i ? k and k + 1 ? j ? |W \ S|.  References [1] J. Pearl, Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems. [2] S. L. Lauritzen, Graphical models. Morgan Kaufmann, 1988. New York: Oxford University Press, 1996. [3] J. Whittaker, Graphical Models in Applied Multivariate Statistics. Wiley, 1990. [4] N. Meinshausen and P. B?uhlmann, ?High dimensional graphs and variable selection with the lasso,? Annals of Statistics, vol. 34, no. 3, pp. 1436?1462, 2006. [5] P. Ravikumar, M. J. Wainwright, G. Raskutti, and B. Yu, ?High dimensional covariance estimation by minimizing `-1 penalized log-determinant divergence,? Electronic Journal in Statistics, vol. 4, pp. 935? 980, 2011. [6] A. Anandkumar, V. Tan, F. Huang, and A. Willsky, ?High-dimensional gaussian graphical model selection: walk-summability and local separation criterion,? J. Machine Learning Research, vol. 13, pp. 2293?2337, Aug 2012. [7] R. Wu, R. Srikant, and J. Ni, ?Learning loosely connected markov random fields,? Stochastic Systems, vol. 3, 2013. [8] M. Frydenberg, ?Marginalisation and collapsibility in graphical interaction models,? Annals of Statistics, vol. 18, pp. 790?805, 1990. [9] G. Kauermann, ?On a dualization of graphical gaussian models,? Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, vol. 23, no. 1, pp. 105?116, 1996. 8 [10] A. Becker, D. Geiger, and C. Meek, ?Perfect tree-like markovian distributions,? Probability and Mathematical Statistics, vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 231?239, 2005. [11] D. Malouche and B. Rajaratnam, ?Gaussian covariance faithful markov trees,? Technical report, Department of Statistics, Stanford University, 2009. [12] P. Spirites, C. Glymore, and R. Scheines, Causation, prediction and search. New York: Springer Verlag, 1993. [13] C. Meek, ?Strong completeness and faithfulness in bayesian networks,? in Proceedings of the eleventh international conference on uncertainty in artificial intelligence, 1995. [14] C. Uhler, G. Raskutti, P. B?uhlmann, and B. Yu, ?Geometry of faithfulness assumption in causal inference,? Annals of Statistics, vol. 41, pp. 436?463, 2013. [15] S. Lin, C. Uhler, B. Sturmfels, and P. B?uhlmann, ?Hypersurfaces and their singularities in partial correlation testing,? Preprint. 9
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Sampling for Inference in Probabilistic Models with Fast Bayesian Quadrature Roman Garnett Knowledge Discovery and Machine Learning University of Bonn rgarnett@uni-bonn.de Tom Gunter, Michael A. Osborne Engineering Science University of Oxford {tgunter,mosb}@robots.ox.ac.uk Philipp Hennig MPI for Intelligent Systems T?ubingen, Germany phennig@tuebingen.mpg.de Stephen J. Roberts Engineering Science University of Oxford sjrob@robots.ox.ac.uk Abstract We propose a novel sampling framework for inference in probabilistic models: an active learning approach that converges more quickly (in wall-clock time) than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) benchmarks. The central challenge in probabilistic inference is numerical integration, to average over ensembles of models or unknown (hyper-)parameters (for example to compute the marginal likelihood or a partition function). MCMC has provided approaches to numerical integration that deliver state-of-the-art inference, but can suffer from sample inefficiency and poor convergence diagnostics. Bayesian quadrature techniques offer a model-based solution to such problems, but their uptake has been hindered by prohibitive computation costs. We introduce a warped model for probabilistic integrands (likelihoods) that are known to be non-negative, permitting a cheap active learning scheme to optimally select sample locations. Our algorithm is demonstrated to offer faster convergence (in seconds) relative to simple Monte Carlo and annealed importance sampling on both synthetic and real-world examples. 1 Introduction Bayesian approaches to machine learning problems inevitably call for the frequent approximation of computationally intractable integrals of the form Z Z = h`i = `(x) ?(x) dx, (1) where both the likelihood `(x) and prior ?(x) are non-negative. Such integrals arise when marginalising over model parameters or variables, calculating predictive test likelihoods and computing model evidences. In all cases the function to be integrated?the integrand?is naturally constrained to be non-negative, as the functions being considered define probabilities. In what follows we will primarily consider the computation of model evidence, Z. In this case `(x) defines the unnormalised likelihood over a D-dimensional parameter set, x1 , ..., xD , and ?(x) defines a prior density over x. Many techniques exist for estimating Z, such as annealed importance sampling (AIS) [1], nested sampling [2], and bridge sampling [3]. These approaches are based around a core Monte Carlo estimator for the integral, and make minimal effort to exploit prior information about the likelihood surface. Monte Carlo convergence diagnostics are also unreliable for partition function estimates [4, 5, 6]. More advanced methods?e.g., AIS?also require parameter tuning, and will yield poor estimates with misspecified parameters. 1 The Bayesian quadrature (BQ) [7, 8, 9, 10] approach to estimating model evidence is inherently model based. That is, it involves specifying a prior distribution over likelihood functions in the form of a Gaussian process (GP) [11]. This prior may be used to encode beliefs about the likelihood surface, such as smoothness or periodicity. Given a set of samples from `(x), posteriors over both the integrand and the integral may in some cases be computed analytically (see below for discussion on other generalisations). Active sampling [12] can then be used to select function evaluations so as to maximise the reduction in entropy of either the integrand or integral. Such an approach has been demonstrated to improve sample efficiency, relative to na??ve randomised sampling [12]. In a big-data setting, where likelihood function evaluations are prohibitively expensive, BQ is demonstrably better than Monte Carlo approaches [10, 12]. As the cost of the likelihood decreases, however, BQ no longer achieves a higher effective sample rate per second, because the computational cost of maintaining the GP model and active sampling becomes relevant, and many Monte Carlo samples may be generated for each new BQ sample. Our goal was to develop a cheap and accurate BQ model alongside an efficient active sampling scheme, such that even for low cost likelihoods BQ would be the scheme of choice. Our contributions extend existing work in two ways: Square-root GP: Foundational work [7, 8, 9, 10] on BQ employed a GP prior directly on the likelihood function, making no attempt to enforce non-negativity a priori. [12] introduced an approximate means of modelling the logarithm of the integrand with a GP. This involved making a first-order approximation to the exponential function, so as to maintain tractability of inference in the integrand model. In this work, we choose another classical transformation to preserve non-negativity?the square-root. By placing a GP prior on the square-root of the integrand, we arrive at a model which both goes some way towards dealing with the high dynamic range of most likelihoods, and enforces non-negativity without the approximations resorted to in [12]. Fast Active Sampling: Whereas most approaches to BQ use either a randomised or fixed sampling scheme, [12] targeted the reduction in the expected variance of Z. Here, we sample where the expected posterior variance of the integrand after the quadratic transform is at a maximum. This is a cheap way of balancing exploitation of known probability mass and exploration of the space in order to approximately minimise the entropy of the integral. We compare our approach, termed warped sequential active Bayesian integration (WSABI), to nonnegative integration with standard Monte Carlo techniques on simulated and real examples. Crucially, we make comparisons of error against ground truth given a fixed compute budget. 2 Bayesian Quadrature R Given a non analytic integral h`i := `(x)?(x) dx on a domain X = RD , Bayesian quadrature is a model based approach of inferring both the functional form of the integrand and the value of the integral conditioned on a set of sample points. Typically the prior density is assumed to be a Gaussian, ?(x) := N (x; ?, ?); however, via the use of an importance re-weighting trick, q(x) = (q(x)/?(x)) ?(x), any prior density q(x) may be integrated against. For clarity we will henceforth notationally consider only the X = R case, although all results trivially extend to X = Rd . Typically a GP prior is chosen for `(x), although it may also be directly specified on `(x)?(x). parameterised by a mean ?(x) and scaled Gaussian covariance K(x, x0 ) :=  This 0is2  1 (x?x ) 2 ? exp ? 2 ?2 . The output length-scale ? and input length-scale ? control the standard deviation of the output and the autocorrelation range of each function evaluation respectively, and will be jointly denoted as ? = {?, ?}. Conditioned on samples xd = {x1 , ..., xN } and associated func tion values `(xd ), the posterior mean is mD (x) := ?(x) + K(x, xd )K ?1 (xd , xd ) `(xd ) ? ?(xd ) , and the is CD (x, x0 ) := K(x, x) ? K(x, xd )K(xd , xd )?1 K(xd , x), where  posterior covariance D := xd , `(xd ), ? . For an extensive review of the GP literature and associated identities, see [11]. When a GP prior is placed directly on the integrand in this manner, the posterior mean and variance of the integral can be derived analytically through the use of Gaussian identities, as in [10]. This is because the integration is a linear projection of the function posterior onto ?(x), and joint Gaussianity is preserved through any arbitrary affine The mean and  transformation. R variance estimate of the integral are given as follows: E`|D h`i = mD (x) ?(x) dx (2), and 2   RR CD (x, x0 ) ?(x) dx ?(x0 ) dx0 (3). Both mean and variance are analytic when ?(x) V`|D h`i = is Gaussian, a mixture of Gaussians, or a polynomial (amongst other functional forms). If the GP prior is placed directly on the likelihood in the style of traditional Bayes?Hermite quadrature, the optimal point to add a sample (from an information gain perspective) is dependent only on xd ?the locations of the previously sampled points. This means that given a budget of N samples, the most informative set of function evaluations is a design that can be pre-computed, completely uninfluenced by any information gleaned from function values [13]. In [12], where the log-likelihood is modelled by a GP, a dependency is introduced between the uncertainty over the function at any point and the function value at that point. This means that the optimal sample placement is now directly influenced by the obtained function values. 95% confidence interval 95% confidence interval GP posterior mean WSABI - M True function posterior mean ?(x) ?(x) True function X (a) Traditional Bayes?Hermite quadrature. X (b) Square-root moment-matched Bayesian quadrature. Figure 1: Figure 1a depicts the integrand as modelled directly by a GP, conditioned on 15 samples selected on a grid over the domain. Figure 1b shows the moment matched approximation?note the larger relative posterior variance in areas where the function is high. The linearised square-root GP performed identically on this example, and is not shown. An illustration of Bayes?Hermite quadrature is given in Figure 1a. Conditioned on a grid of 15 samples, it is visible that any sample located equidistant from two others is equally informative in reducing our uncertainty about `(x). As the dimensionality of the space increases, exploration can be increasingly difficult due to the curse of dimensionality. A better designed BQ strategy would create a dependency structure between function value and informativeness of sample, in such a way as to appropriately express prior bias towards exploitation of existing probability mass. 3 Square-Root Bayesian Quadrature Crucially, likelihoods are non-negative, a fact neglected by traditional Bayes?Hermite quadrature. In [12] the logarithm of the likelihood was modelled, and approximate the posterior of the integral, via a linearisation trick. We choose a different member of the power transform family?the square-root. The square-root transform halves the dynamic range of the function we model. This helps deal with the large variations in likelihood observed in a typical model, and has the added benefit of extending the autocorrelation range (or the input length-scale) of the GP, yielding improved predictive power when extrapolating away from existing sample points. q  ? := 2 `(x) ? ? , such that `(x) = ? + 1/2 `(x) ? 2 , where ? is a small positive scalar.1 We Let `(x) ? then take a GP prior on `(x): `? ? GP(0, K). We can then write the posterior for `? as  ?m p(`? | D) = GP `; ? D (?), C?D (?, ?) ; (4) ?1 ? m ? D (x) := K(x, xd )K(xd , xd ) `(xd ); (5) C?D (x, x0 ) := K(x, x0 ) ? K(x, xd )K(xd , xd )?1 K(xd , x0 ). (6) The square-root transformation renders analysis intractable with this GP: we arrive at a process whose marginal distribution for any `(x) is a non-central ?2 (with one degree of freedom). Given this process, the posterior for our integral is not closed-form. We now describe two alternative approximation schemes to resolve this problem. 1 ? was taken as 0.8 ? min `(xd ) in all experiments; our investigations found that performance was insensitive to the choice of this parameter. 3 3.1 Linearisation We firstly consider a local linearisation of the transform f : `? 7? ` = ? + 1/2 `?2 . As GPs are closed under linear transformations, this linearisation will ensure that we arrive at a GP for ` given our ? Generically, if we linearise around `?0 , we have ` ' f (`?0 ) + f 0 (`?0 )(`? ? `?0 ). Note existing GP on `. 0 ? ? that f (`) = `: this simple gradient is a further motivation for our transform, as described further in Section 3.3. We choose `?0 = m ? D ; this represents the mode of p(`? | D). Hence we arrive at   ? ?m ? `(x) ' ? + 1/2 m ? D (x)2 + m ? D (x) `(x) ? D (x) = ? ? 1/2 m ? D (x)2 + m ? D (x) `(x). (7) ? we have Under this approximation, in which ` is a simple affine transformation of `,  L p(` | D) ' GP `; mL D (?), CD (?, ?) ; mL D (x) L CD (x, x0 ) 3.2 := ? + 1/2 m ? D (x)2 ; := m ? D (x)C?D (x, x0 )m ? D (x0 ). (8) (9) (10) Moment Matching Alternatively, we consider a moment-matching approximation: p(` | D) is approximated as a GP 2 with mean and covariance  equal to those of the true ? (process) posterior. This gives p(` | D) := M M GP `; mD (?), CD (?, ?) , where  1 mM ? 2D (x) + C?D (x, x) ; (11) D (x) := ? + /2 m M CD (x, x0 ) := 1/2 C?D (x, x0 )2 + m ? D (x)C?D (x, x0 )m ? D (x0 ). (12) We will call these two approximations WSABI - L (for ?linear?) and WSABI - M (for ?moment matched?), respectively. Figure 2 shows a comparison of the approximations on synthetic data. The likelihood function, `(x), was defined to be `(x) = exp(?x2 ), and is plotted in red. We placed ? and conditioned this on seven observations spanning the interval [?2, 2]. We then a GP prior on `, drew 50 000 samples from the true ?2 posterior on `? along a dense grid on the interval [?5, 5] and used these to estimate the true density of `(x), shown in blue shading. Finally, we plot the means and 95% confidence intervals for the approximate posterior. Notice that the moment matching results in a higher mean and variance far from observations, but otherwise the approximations largely agree with each other and the true density. 3.3 Quadrature m ? D and C?D are both mixtures of un-normalised Gaussians K. As such, the expressions for posteL rior mean and covariance under either the linearisation (mL D and CD , respectively) or the momentM M matching approximations (mD and CD , respectively) are also mixtures of un-normalised Gaussians. Substituting these expressions (under either approximation) into (2) and (3) yields closedform expressions (omitted due to their length) for the mean and variance of the integral h`i. This result motivated our initial choice of transform: for linearisation, for example, it was only the fact ? = `? that rendered the covariance in (10) a mixture of un-normalised Gausthat the gradient f 0 (`) sians. The discussion that follows is equally applicable to either approximation. It is clear that the posterior variance of the likelihood model is now a function of both the expected value of the likelihood at that point, and the distance of that sample location from the rest of xd . This is visualised in Figure 1b. Comparing Figures 1a and 1b we see that conditioned on an identical set of samples, WSABI both achieves a closer fit to the true underlying function, and associates minimal probability mass with negative function values. These are desirable properties when modelling likelihood functions?both arising from the use of the square-root transform. 4 Active Sampling Given a full Bayesian model of the likelihood surface, it is natural to call on the framework of Bayesian decision theory, selecting the next function evaluation so as to optimally reduce our uncer4 ?(x) ?2 process Mean (ground truth) Mean (WSABI - M) 95% CI (WSABI - M) Mean (WSABI - L) 95% CI (WSABI - L) X Figure 2: The ?2 process, alongside moment matched (WSABI - M) and linearised approximations (WSABI - L). Notice that the WSABI - L mean is nearly identical to the ground truth. tainty about either the total integrand surface or the integral. Let us define this next sample location to be x? , and the associated likelihood to be `? := `(x? ). Two utility functions immediately present themselves as natural choices, which we consider below. Both options are appropriate for either of the approximations to p(`) described above. 4.1 Minimizing expected entropy One possibility would be to follow  [12]  in minimising the expected entropy of the integral, by selecting x? = arg min V`|D,`(x) h`i , where x Z D  E    V`|D,`(x) h`i = V`|D,`(x) h`i N `(x); mD (x), CD (x, x) d`(x). 4.2 (13) Uncertainty sampling Alternatively, we can target the reduction  in entropy of the total integrand `(x)?(x) instead, by targeting x? = arg max V`|D `(x)?(x) (this is known as uncertainty sampling), where x VM `|D    ? D (x)2 , `(x)?(x) = ?(x)CD (x, x)?(x) = ?(x)2 C?D (x, x) 1/2 C?D (x, x) + m (14) in the case of our moment matched approximation, and, under the linearisation approximation,   2? VL ? D (x)2 . (15) `|D `(x)?(x) = ?(x) CD (x, x)m The uncertainty sampling option reduces the entropy of our GP approximation to p(`) rather than the true (intractable) distribution. The computation of either (14) or (15) is considerably cheaper and more numerically stable than that of (13). Notice that as our model builds in greater uncertainty in the likelihood where it is high, it will naturally balance sampling in entirely unexplored regions against sampling in regions where the likelihood is expected to be high. Our model (the squareroot transform) is more suited to the use of uncertainty sampling than the model taken in [12]. This is because the approximation to the posterior variance is typically poorer for the extreme logtransform than for the milder square-root transform. This means that, although the log-transform would achieve greater reduction in dynamic range than any power transform, it would also introduce the most error in approximating the posterior predictive variance of `(x). Hence, on balance, we consider the square-root transform superior for our sampling scheme. Figures 3?4 illustrate the result of square-root Bayesian quadrature, conditioned on 15 samples selected sequentially under utility functions (14) and (15) respectively. In both cases the posterior mean has not been scaled by the prior ?(x) (but the variance has). This is intended to exaggerate the contributions to the mean made by WSABI - M. A good posterior estimate of the integral has been achieved, and this set of samples is more informative than a grid under the utility function of minimising the integral error. In all active-learning 5 Prior mass 95% Confidence interval WSABI - L posterior mean True function Optimal next sample ?(x) ?(x) Prior mass 95% Confidence interval WSABI - M posterior mean True function Optimal next sample X X Figure 3: Square-root Bayesian quadrature with active sampling according to utility function (14) and corresponding momentmatched model. Note the non-zero expected mean everywhere. Figure 4: Square-root Bayesian quadrature with active sampling according to utility function (15) and corresponding linearised model. Note the zero expected mean away from samples. examples a covariance matrix adaptive evolution strategy (CMA - ES) [14] global optimiser was used to explore the utility function surface before selecting the next sample. 5 Results Given this new model and fast active sampling scheme for likelihood surfaces, we now test for speed against standard Monte Carlo techniques on a variety of problems. 5.1 Synthetic Likelihoods We generated 16 likelihoods in four-dimensional space by selecting K normal distributions with K drawn uniformly at random over the integers 5?14. The means were drawn uniformly at random over the inner quarter of the domain (by area), and the covariances for each were produced by scaling each axis of an isotropic Gaussian by an integer drawn uniformly at random between 21 and 29. The overall likelihood surface was then given as a mixture of these distributions, with weights given by partitioning the unit interval into K segments drawn uniformly at random??stick-breaking?. This procedure was chosen in order to generate ?lumpy? surfaces. We budgeted 500 samples for our new method per likelihood, allocating the same amount of time to simple Monte Carlo (SMC). Naturally the computational cost per evaluation of this likelihood is effectively zero, which afforded SMC just under 86 000 samples per likelihood on average. WSABI was on average faster to converge to 10?3 error (Figure 5), and it is visible in Figure 6 that the likelihood of the ground truth is larger under this model than with SMC. This concurs with the fact that a tighter bound was achieved. 5.2 Marginal Likelihood of GP Regression As an initial exploration into the performance of our approach on real data, we fitted a Gaussian process regression model to the yacht hydrodynamics benchmark dataset [15]. This has a sixdimensional input space corresponding to different properties of a boat hull, and a one-dimensional output corresponding to drag coefficient. The dataset has 308 examples, and using a squared exponential ARD covariance function a single evaluation of the likelihood takes approximately 0.003 seconds. Marginalising over the hyperparameters of this model is an eight-dimensional non-analytic integral. Specifically, the hyperparameters were: an output length-scale, six input length-scales, and an output noise variance. We used a zero-mean isotropic Gaussian prior over the hyperparameters in log space with variance of 4. We obtained ground truth through exhaustive SMC sampling, and budgeted 1 250 samples for WSABI. The same amount of compute-time was then afforded to SMC, AIS (which was implemented with a Metropolis?Hastings sampler), and Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC). SMC achieved approximately 375 000 samples in the same amount of time. We ran AIS in 10 steps, spaced on a log-scale over the number of iterations, hence the AIS plot is more granular than the others (and does not begin at 0). The ?hottest? proposal distribution for AIS was a Gaussian centered on the prior mean, with variance tuned down from a maximum of the prior variance. 6 ?105 WSABI - L WSABI - L SMC SMC ? 1 ? 1 std. error std. error Average likelihood of ground truth Fractional error vs. ground truth 100 10?1 10 ?2 10?3 0 20 40 60 5 4 3 2 1 WSABI - L SMC 0 0 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Time in seconds Figure 5: Time in seconds vs. average fractional error compared to the ground truth integral, as well as empirical standard error bounds, derived from the variance over the 16 runs. WSABI - M performed slightly better. 50 150 100 Time in seconds 200 Figure 6: Time in seconds versus average likelihood of the ground truth integral over 16 runs. WSABI - M has a significantly larger variance estimate for the integral as compared to WSABI - L. ?104 Ground truth WSABI - L WSABI - M 1 SMC AIS BMC log Z 0.5 0 ?0.5 ?1 ?1.5 0 200 400 600 800 Time in seconds 1000 1200 1400 Figure 7: Log-marginal likelihood of GP regression on the yacht hydrodynamics dataset. Figure 7 shows the speed with which WSABI converges to a value very near ground truth compared to the rest. AIS performs rather disappointingly on this problem, despite our best attempts to tune the proposal distribution to achieve higher acceptance rates. Although the first datapoint (after 10 000 samples) is the second best performer after WSABI, further compute budget did very little to improve the final AIS estimate. BMC is by far the worst performer. This is because it has relatively few samples compared to SMC, and those samples were selected completely at random over the domain. It also uses a GP prior directly on the likelihood, which due to the large dynamic range will have a poor predictive performance. 5.3 Marginal Likelihood of GP Classification We fitted a Gaussian process classification model to both a one dimensional synthetic dataset, as well as real-world binary classification problem defined on the nodes of a citation network [16]. The latter had a four-dimensional input space and 500 examples. We use a probit likelihood model, inferring the function values using a Laplace approximation. Once again we marginalised out the hyperparameters. 7 5.4 Synthetic Binary Classification Problem We generate 500 binary class samples using a 1D input space. The GP classification scheme implemented in Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning Matlab Toolbox (GPML) [17] is employed using the inference and likelihood framework described above. We marginalised over the threedimensional hyperparameter space of: an output length-scale, an input length-scale and a ?jitter? parameter. We again tested against BMC, AIS, SMC and, additionally, Doubly-Bayesian Quadrature (BBQ) [12]. Ground truth was found through 100 000 SMC samples. This time the acceptance rate for AIS was significantly higher, and it is visibly converging to the ground truth in Figure 8, albeit in a more noisy fashion than the rest. WSABI - L performed particularly well, almost immediately converging to the ground truth, and reaching a tighter bound than SMC in the long run. BMC performed well on this particular example, suggesting that the active sampling approach did not buy many gains on this occasion. Despite this, the square-root approaches both converged to a more accurate solution with lower variance than BMC. This suggests that the square-root transform model generates significant added value, even without an active sampling scheme. The computational cost of selecting samples under BBQ prevents rapid convergence. 5.5 Real Binary Classification Problem For our next experiment, we again used our method to calculate the model evidence of a GP model with a probit likelihood, this time on a real dataset. The dataset, first described in [16], was a graph from a subset of the CiteSeerx citation network. Papers in the database were grouped based on their venue of publication, and papers from the 48 venues with the most associated publications were retained. The graph was defined by having these papers as its nodes and undirected citation relations as its edges. We designated all papers appearing in NIPS proceedings as positive observations. To generate Euclidean input vectors, the authors performed ?graph principal component analysis? on this network [18]; here, we used the first four graph principal components as inputs to a GP classifier. The dataset was subsampled down to a set of 500 examples in order to generate a cheap likelihood, half of which were positive. ?144 Ground truth WSABI - L WSABI - M ?146 SMC AIS BMC BBQ log Z log Z ?148 ?150 ?152 ?154 ?156 ?158 0 50 ?220 ?230 ?240 ?250 ?260 ?270 ?280 ?290 ?300 ?310 0 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Time in seconds Ground truth WSABI - L WSABI - M SMC AIS BMC BBQ 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 Time in seconds Figure 9: Log-marginal likelihood for GP classification?graph dataset. Figure 8: Log-marginal likelihood for GP classification?synthetic dataset. Across all our results, it is noticeable that WSABI - M typically performs worse relative to WSABI - L as the dimensionality of the problem increases. This is due to an increased propensity for exploration as compared to WSABI - L. WSABI - L is the fastest method to converge on all test cases, apart from the synthetic mixture model surfaces where WSABI - M performed slightly better (although this was not shown in Figure 5). These results suggest that an active-sampling policy which aggressively exploits areas of probability mass before exploring further afield may be the most appropriate approach to Bayesian quadrature for real likelihoods. 6 Conclusions We introduced the first fast Bayesian quadrature scheme, using a novel warped likelihood model and a novel active sampling scheme. Our method, WSABI, demonstrates faster convergence (in wall-clock time) for regression and classification benchmarks than the Monte Carlo state-of-the-art. 8 References [1] R.M. Neal. Annealed importance sampling. Statistics and Computing, 11(2):125?139, 2001. [2] J. Skilling. Nested sampling. Bayesian inference and maximum entropy methods in science and engineering, 735:395?405, 2004. [3] X. Meng and W. H. Wong. Simulating ratios of normalizing constants via a simple identity: a theoretical exploration. Statistica Sinica, 6(4):831?860, 1996. [4] R. M. Neal. Probabilistic inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Technical Report CRG-TR-93-1, University of Toronto, 1993. [5] S.P. Brooks and G.O. Roberts. Convergence assessment techniques for Markov chain Monte Carlo. Statistics and Computing, 8(4):319?335, 1998. [6] M.K. Cowles, G.O. Roberts, and J.S. Rosenthal. Possible biases induced by MCMC convergence diagnostics. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 64(1):87, 1999. [7] P. Diaconis. Bayesian numerical analysis. In S. Gupta J. Berger, editor, Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics IV, volume 1, pages 163?175. Springer-Verlag, New York, 1988. [8] A. O?Hagan. Bayes-Hermite quadrature. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 29:245?260, 1991. [9] M. Kennedy. Bayesian quadrature with non-normal approximating functions. Statistics and Computing, 8(4):365?375, 1998. [10] C. E. Rasmussen and Z. Ghahramani. Bayesian Monte Carlo. In S. Becker and K. Obermayer, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, volume 15. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2003. [11] C. E. Rasmussen and C. K. I. Williams. Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning. MIT Press, 2006. [12] M. A. Osborne, D. K. Duvenaud, R. Garnett, C. E. Rasmussen, S. J. Roberts, and Z. Ghahramani. Active learning of model evidence using Bayesian quadrature. In P. Bartlett, F. C. N. Pereira, C. J. C. Burges, L. Bottou, and K. Q. Weinberger, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2012. [13] T. P. Minka. Deriving quadrature rules from Gaussian processes. Technical report, Statistics Department, Carnegie Mellon University, 2000. [14] N. Hansen, S. D. M?uller, and P. Koumoutsakos. Reducing the time complexity of the derandomized evolution strategy with covariance matrix adaptation (CMA - ES). Evolutionary Computation, 11(1):1?18, 2003. [15] J Gerritsma, R Onnink, and A Versluis. Geometry, resistance and stability of the delft systematic yacht hull series. International shipbuilding progress, 28(328), 1981. [16] R. Garnett, Y. Krishnamurthy, X. Xiong, J. Schneider, and R. P. Mann. Bayesian optimal active search and surveying. In J. Langford and J. Pineau, editors, Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2012). Omnipress, Madison, WI, USA, 2012. [17] C. E. Rasmussen and H. Nickisch. Gaussian processes for machine learning (GPML) toolbox. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 11(2010):3011?03015. [18] F. Fouss, A. Pirotte, J-M Renders, and M. Saerens. Random-walk computation of similarities between nodes of a graph with application to collaborative recommendation. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, 19(3):355?369, 2007. 9
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Do Deep Nets Really Need to be Deep? Rich Caruana Microsoft Research rcaruana@microsoft.com Lei Jimmy Ba University of Toronto jimmy@psi.utoronto.ca Abstract Currently, deep neural networks are the state of the art on problems such as speech recognition and computer vision. In this paper we empirically demonstrate that shallow feed-forward nets can learn the complex functions previously learned by deep nets and achieve accuracies previously only achievable with deep models. Moreover, in some cases the shallow nets can learn these deep functions using the same number of parameters as the original deep models. On the TIMIT phoneme recognition and CIFAR-10 image recognition tasks, shallow nets can be trained that perform similarly to complex, well-engineered, deeper convolutional models. 1 Introduction You are given a training set with 1M labeled points. When you train a shallow neural net with one fully connected feed-forward hidden layer on this data you obtain 86% accuracy on test data. When you train a deeper neural net as in [1] consisting of a convolutional layer, pooling layer, and three fully connected feed-forward layers on the same data you obtain 91% accuracy on the same test set. What is the source of this improvement? Is the 5% increase in accuracy of the deep net over the shallow net because: a) the deep net has more parameters; b) the deep net can learn more complex functions given the same number of parameters; c) the deep net has better inductive bias and thus learns more interesting/useful functions (e.g., because the deep net is deeper it learns hierarchical representations [5]); d) nets without convolution can?t easily learn what nets with convolution can learn; e) current learning algorithms and regularization methods work better with deep architectures than shallow architectures[8]; f) all or some of the above; g) none of the above? There have been attempts to answer this question. It has been shown that deep nets coupled with unsupervised layer-by-layer pre-training [10] [19] work well. In [8], the authors show that depth combined with pre-training provides a good prior for model weights, thus improving generalization. There is well-known early theoretical work on the representational capacity of neural nets. For example, it was proved that a network with a large enough single hidden layer of sigmoid units can approximate any decision boundary [4]. Empirical work, however, shows that it is difficult to train shallow nets to be as accurate as deep nets. For vision tasks, a recent study on deep convolutional nets suggests that deeper models are preferred under a parameter budget [7]. In [5], the authors trained shallow nets on SIFT features to classify a large-scale ImageNet dataset and found that it was difficult to train large, high-accuracy, shallow nets. And in [17], the authors show that deeper models are more accurate than shallow models in speech acoustic modeling. In this paper we provide empirical evidence that shallow nets are capable of learning the same function as deep nets, and in some cases with the same number of parameters as the deep nets. We do this by first training a state-of-the-art deep model, and then training a shallow model to mimic the deep model. The mimic model is trained using the model compression method described in the next section. Remarkably, with model compression we are able to train shallow nets to be as accurate as some deep models, even though we are not able to train these shallow nets to be as accurate as the deep nets when the shallow nets are trained directly on the original labeled training data. If a shallow net with the same number of parameters as a deep net can learn to mimic a deep net with high fidelity, then it is clear that the function learned by that deep net does not really have to be deep. 1 2 2.1 Training Shallow Nets to Mimic Deep Nets Model Compression The main idea behind model compression [3] is to train a compact model to approximate the function learned by a larger, more complex model. For example, in [3], a single neural net of modest size could be trained to mimic a much larger ensemble of models?although the small neural nets contained 1000 times fewer parameters, often they were just as accurate as the ensembles they were trained to mimic. Model compression works by passing unlabeled data through the large, accurate model to collect the scores produced by that model. This synthetically labeled data is then used to train the smaller mimic model. The mimic model is not trained on the original labels?it is trained to learn the function that was learned by the larger model. If the compressed model learns to mimic the large model perfectly it makes exactly the same predictions and mistakes as the complex model. Surprisingly, often it is not (yet) possible to train a small neural net on the original training data to be as accurate as the complex model, nor as accurate as the mimic model. Compression demonstrates that a small neural net could, in principle, learn the more accurate function, but current learning algorithms are unable to train a model with that accuracy from the original training data; instead, we must train the complex intermediate model first and then train the neural net to mimic it. Clearly, when it is possible to mimic the function learned by a complex model with a small net, the function learned by the complex model wasn?t truly too complex to be learned by a small net. This suggests to us that the complexity of a learned model, and the size and architecture of the representation best used to learn that model, are different things. 2.2 Mimic Learning via Regressing Logits with L2 Loss On both TIMIT and CIFAR-10 we use model compression to train shallow mimic nets using data labeled by either a deep net, or an ensemble of deep nets, trained on the original TIMIT or CIFAR-10 training data. The deep models are trained in the usual way using softmax output and cross-entropy cost function. The shallow mimic models, however, instead of being trained with cross-entropy on P the 183 p values where pk = ezk / j ezj output by the softmax layer from the deep model, are trained directly on the 183 log probability values z, also called logits, before the softmax activation. Training on logits, which are logarithms of predicted probabilities, makes learning easier for the student model by placing equal emphasis on the relationships learned by the teacher model across all of the targets. For example, if the teacher predicts three targets with probability [2 ? 10?9 , 4 ? 10?5 , 0.9999] and those probabilities are used as prediction targets and cross entropy is minimized, the student will focus on the third target and tend to ignore the first and second targets. A student, however, trained on the logits for these targets, [10, 20, 30], will better learn to mimic the detailed behaviour of the teacher model. Moreover, consider a second training case where the teacher predicts logits [?10, 0, 10]. After softmax, these logits yield the same predicted probabilities as [10, 20, 30], yet clearly the teacher models the two cases very differently. By training the student model directly on the logits, the student is better able to learn the internal model learned by the teacher, without suffering from the information loss that occurs from passing through logits to probability space. We formulate the SNN-MIMIC learning objective function as a regression problem given training data {(x(1) , z (1) ),...,(x(T ) , z (T ) ) }: L(W, ?) = 1 X ||g(x(t) ; W, ?) ? z (t) ||22 , 2T t (1) where W is the weight matrix between input features x and hidden layer, ? is the weights from hidden to output units, g(x(t) ; W, ?) = ?f (W x(t) ) is the model prediction on the tth training data point and f (?) is the non-linear activation of the hidden units. The parameters W and ? are updated using standard error back-propagation algorithm and stochastic gradient descent with momentum. We have also experimented with other mimic loss functions, such as minimizing the KL divergence KL(pteacher kpstudent ) cost function and L2 loss on probabilities. Regression on logits outperforms all the other loss functions and is one of the key techniques for obtaining the results in the rest of this 2 paper. We found that normalizing the logits from the teacher model by subtracting the mean and dividing the standard deviation of each target across the training set can improve L2 loss slightly during training, but normalization is not crucial for obtaining good student mimic models. 2.3 Speeding-up Mimic Learning by Introducing a Linear Layer To match the number of parameters in a deep net, a shallow net has to have more non-linear hidden units in a single layer to produce a large weight matrix W . When training a large shallow neural network with many hidden units, we find it is very slow to learn the large number of parameters in the weight matrix between input and hidden layers of size O(HD), where D is input feature dimension and H is the number of hidden units. Because there are many highly correlated parameters in this large weight matrix, gradient descent converges slowly. We also notice that during learning, shallow nets spend most of the computation in the costly matrix multiplication of the input data vectors and large weight matrix. The shallow nets eventually learn accurate mimic functions, but training to convergence is very slow (multiple weeks) even with a GPU. We found that introducing a bottleneck linear layer with k linear hidden units between the input and the non-linear hidden layer sped up learning dramatically: we can factorize the weight matrix W ? RH?D into the product of two low-rank matrices, U ? RH?k and V ? Rk?D , where k << D, H. The new cost function can be written as: 1 X L(U, V, ?) = ||?f (U V x(t) ) ? z (t) ||22 (2) 2T t The weights U and V can be learnt by back-propagating through the linear layer. This reparameterization of weight matrix W not only increases the convergence rate of the shallow mimic nets, but also reduces memory space from O(HD) to O(k(H + D)). Factorizing weight matrices has been previously explored in [16] and [20]. While these prior works focus on using matrix factorization in the last output layer, our method is applied between the input and hidden layer to improve the convergence speed during training. The reduced memory usage enables us to train large shallow models that were previously infeasible due to excessive memory usage. Note that the linear bottleneck can only reduce the representational power of the network, and it can always be absorbed into a single weight matrix W . 3 TIMIT Phoneme Recognition The TIMIT speech corpus has 462 speakers in the training set, a separate development set for crossvalidation that includes 50 speakers, and a final test set with 24 speakers. The raw waveform audio data were pre-processed using 25ms Hamming window shifting by 10ms to extract Fouriertransform-based filter-banks with 40 coefficients (plus energy) distributed on a mel-scale, together with their first and second temporal derivatives. We included +/- 7 nearby frames to formulate the final 1845 dimension input vector. The data input features were normalized by subtracting the mean and dividing by the standard deviation on each dimension. All 61 phoneme labels are represented in tri-state, i.e., three states for each of the 61 phonemes, yielding target label vectors with 183 dimensions for training. At decoding time these are mapped to 39 classes as in [13] for scoring. 3.1 Deep Learning on TIMIT Deep learning was first successfully applied to speech recognition in [14]. Following their framework, we train two deep models on TIMIT, DNN and CNN. DNN is a deep neural net consisting of three fully connected feedforward hidden layers consisting of 2000 rectified linear units (ReLU) [15] per layer. CNN is a deep neural net consisting of a convolutional layer and max-pooling layer followed by three hidden layers containing 2000 ReLU units [2]. The CNN was trained using the same convolutional architecture as in [6]. We also formed an ensemble of nine CNN models, ECNN. The accuracy of DNN, CNN, and ECNN on the final test set are shown in Table 1. The error rate of the convolutional deep net (CNN) is about 2.1% better than the deep net (DNN). The table also shows the accuracy of shallow neural nets with 8000, 50,000, and 400,000 hidden units (SNN-8k, 3 SNN-50k, and SNN-400k) trained on the original training data. Despite having up to 10X as many parameters as DNN, CNN, and ECNN, the shallow models are 1.4% to 2% less accurate than the DNN, 3.5% to 4.1% less accurate than the CNN, and 4.5% to 5.1% less accurate than the ECNN. 3.2 Learning to Mimic an Ensemble of Deep Convolutional TIMIT Models The most accurate single model that we trained on TIMIT is the deep convolutional architecture in [6]. Because we have no unlabeled data from the TIMIT distribution, we use the same 1.1M points in the train set as unlabeled data for compression by throwing away the labels.1 Re-using the 1.1M train set reduces the accuracy of the student mimic models, increasing the gap between the teacher and mimic models on test data: model compression works best when the unlabeled set is very large, and when the unlabeled samples do not fall on train points where the teacher model is likely to have overfit. To reduce the impact of the gap caused by performing compression with the original train set, we train the student model to mimic a more accurate ensemble of deep convolutional models. We are able to train a more accurate model on TIMIT by forming an ensemble of nine deep, convolutional neural nets, each trained with somewhat different train sets, and with architectures of different kernel sizes in the convolutional layers. We used this very accurate model, ECNN, as the teacher model to label the data used to train the shallow mimic nets. As described in Section 2.2 the logits (log probability of the predicted values) from each CNN in the ECNN model are averaged and the average logits are used as final regression targets to train the mimic SNNs. We trained shallow mimic nets with 8k (SNN-MIMIC-8k) and 400k (SNN-MIMIC-400k) hidden units on the re-labeled 1.1M training points. As described in Section 2.3, to speed up learning both mimic models have 250 linear units between the input and non-linear hidden layer?preliminary experiments suggest that for TIMIT there is little benefit from using more than 250 linear units. 3.3 Compression Results For TIMIT SNN-8k SNN-50k SNN-400k DNN CNN ECNN SNN-MIMIC-8k SNN-MIMIC-400k Architecture # Param. # Hidden units PER 8k + dropout trained on original data 50k + dropout trained on original data 250L-400k + dropout trained on original data 2k-2k-2k + dropout trained on original data c-p-2k-2k-2k + dropout trained on original data ?12M ?8k 23.1% ?100M ?50k 23.0% ?180M ?400k 23.6% ?12M ?6k 21.9% ?13M ?10k 19.5% ensemble of 9 CNNs ?125M ?90k 18.5% 250L-8k no convolution or pooling layers 250L-400k no convolution or pooling layers ?12M ?8k 21.6% ?180M ?400k 20.0% Table 1: Comparison of shallow and deep models: phone error rate (PER) on TIMIT core test set. The bottom of Table 1 shows the accuracy of shallow mimic nets with 8000 ReLUs and 400,000 ReLUs (SNN-MIMIC-8k and -400k) trained with model compression to mimic the ECNN. Surprisingly, shallow nets are able to perform as well as their deep counterparts when trained with model compression to mimic a more accurate model. A neural net with one hidden layer (SNN-MIMIC8k) can be trained to perform as well as a DNN with a similar number of parameters. Furthermore, if we increase the number of hidden units in the shallow net from 8k to 400k (the largest we could 1 That SNNs can be trained to be as accurate as DNNs using only the original training data highlights that it should be possible to train accurate SNNs on the original training data given better learning algorithms. 4 train), we see that a neural net with one hidden layer (SNN-MIMIC-400k) can be trained to perform comparably to a CNN, even though the SNN-MIMIC-400k net has no convolutional or pooling layers. This is interesting because it suggests that a large single hidden layer without a topology custom designed for the problem is able to reach the performance of a deep convolutional neural net that was carefully engineered with prior structure and weight-sharing without any increase in the number of training examples, even though the same architecture trained on the original data could not. 83 82 ShallowNet DeepNet ShallowMimicNet Convolutional Net Ensemble of CNNs 81 80 79 78 77 76 ShallowNet DeepNet ShallowMimicNet Convolutional Net Ensemble of CNNs 81 Accuracy on TIMIT Test Set Accuracy on TIMIT Dev Set 82 80 79 78 77 76 1 10 75 100 Number of Parameters (millions) 1 10 100 Number of Parameters (millions) Figure 1: Accuracy of SNNs, DNNs, and Mimic SNNs vs. # of parameters on TIMIT Dev (left) and Test (right) sets. Accuracy of the CNN and target ECNN are shown as horizontal lines for reference. Figure 1 shows the accuracy of shallow nets and deep nets trained on the original TIMIT 1.1M data, and shallow mimic nets trained on the ECNN targets, as a function of the number of parameters in the models. The accuracy of the CNN and the teacher ECNN are shown as horizontal lines at the top of the figures. When the number of parameters is small (about 1 million), the SNN, DNN, and SNNMIMIC models all have similar accuracy. As the size of the hidden layers increases and the number of parameters increases, the accuracy of a shallow model trained on the original data begins to lag behind. The accuracy of the shallow mimic model, however, matches the accuracy of the DNN until about 4 million parameters, when the DNN begins to fall behind the mimic. The DNN asymptotes at around 10M parameters, while the shallow mimic continues to increase in accuracy. Eventually the mimic asymptotes at around 100M parameters to an accuracy comparable to that of the CNN. The shallow mimic never achieves the accuracy of the ECNN it is trying to mimic (because there is not enough unlabeled data), but it is able to match or exceed the accuracy of deep nets (DNNs) having the same number of parameters trained on the original data. 4 Object Recognition: CIFAR-10 To verify that the results on TIMIT generalize to other learning problems and task domains, we ran similar experiments on the CIFAR-10 Object Recognition Task[12]. CIFAR-10 consists of a set of natural images from 10 different object classes: airplane, automobile, bird, cat, deer, dog, frog, horse, ship, truck. The dataset is a labeled subset of the 80 million tiny images dataset[18] and is divided into 50,000 train and 10,000 test images. Each image is 32x32 pixels in 3 color channels, yielding input vectors with 3072 dimensions. We prepared the data by subtracting the mean and dividing the standard deviation of each image vector to perform global contrast normalization. We then applied ZCA whitening to the normalized images. This pre-processing is the same used in [9]. 4.1 Learning to Mimic an Ensemble of Deep Convolutional CIFAR-10 Models We follow the same approach as with TIMIT: An ensemble of deep CNN models is used to label CIFAR-10 images for model compression. The logit predictions from this teacher model are used as regression targets to train a mimic shallow neural net (SNN). CIFAR-10 images have a higher dimension than TIMIT (3072 vs. 1845), but the size of the CIFAR-10 training set is only 50,000 compared to 1.1 million examples for TIMIT. Fortunately, unlike TIMIT, in CIFAR-10 we have access to unlabeled data from a similar distribution by using the superset of CIFAR-10: the 80 million tiny images dataset. We add the first one million images from the 80 million set to the original 50,000 CIFAR-10 training images to create a 1.05M mimic training (transfer) set. 5 DNN SNN-30k single-layer feature extraction CNN[11] (no augmentation) CNN[21] (no augmentation) teacher CNN (no augmentation) ECNN (no augmentation) SNN-CNN-MIMIC-30k trained on a single CNN SNN-CNN-MIMIC-30k trained on a single CNN SNN-ECNN-MIMIC-30k trained on ensemble Architecture # Param. # Hidden units Err. 2000-2000 + dropout ?10M 4k 57.8% 128c-p-1200L-30k + dropout input&hidden 4000c-p followed by SVM 64c-p-64c-p-64c-p-16lc + dropout on lc 64c-p-64c-p-128c-p-fc + dropout on fc and stochastic pooling 128c-p-128c-p-128c-p-1kfc + dropout on fc and stochastic pooling ?70M ?190k 21.8% ?125M ?3.7B 18.4% ?10k ?110k 15.6% ?56k ?120k 15.13% ?35k ?210k 12.0% ensemble of 4 CNNs ?140k ?840k 11.0% 64c-p-1200L-30k with no regularization 128c-p-1200L-30k with no regularization 128c-p-1200L-30k with no regularization ?54M ?110k 15.4% ?70M ?190k 15.1% ?70M ?190k 14.2% Table 2: Comparison of shallow and deep models: classification error rate on CIFAR-10. Key: c, convolution layer; p, pooling layer; lc, locally connected layer; fc, fully connected layer CIFAR-10 images are raw pixels for objects viewed from many different angles and positions, whereas TIMIT features are human-designed filter-bank features. In preliminary experiments we observed that non-convolutional nets do not perform well on CIFAR-10, no matter what their depth. Instead of raw pixels, the authors in [5] trained their shallow models on the SIFT features. Similarly, [7] used a base convolution and pooling layer to study different deep architectures. We follow the approach in [7] to allow our shallow models to benefit from convolution while keeping the models as shallow as possible, and introduce a single layer of convolution and pooling in our shallow mimic models to act as a feature extractor to create invariance to small translations in the pixel domain. The SNN-MIMIC models for CIFAR-10 thus consist of a convolution and max pooling layer followed by fully connected 1200 linear units and 30k non-linear units. As before, the linear units are there only to speed learning; they do not increase the model?s representational power and can be absorbed into the weights in the non-linear layer after learning. Results on CIFAR-10 are consistent with those from TIMIT. Table 2 shows results for the shallow mimic models, and for much deeper convolutional nets. The shallow mimic net trained to mimic the teacher CNN (SNN-CNN-MIMIC-30k) achieves accuracy comparable to CNNs with multiple convolutional and pooling layers. And by training the shallow model to mimic the ensemble of CNNs (SNN-ECNN-MIMIC-30k), accuracy is improved an additional 0.9%. The mimic models are able to achieve accuracies previously unseen on CIFAR-10 with models with so few layers. Although the deep convolutional nets have more hidden units than the shallow mimic models, because of weight sharing, the deeper nets with multiple convolution layers have fewer parameters than the shallow fully connected mimic models. Still, it is surprising to see how accurate the shallow mimic models are, and that their performance continues to improve as the performance of the teacher model improves (see further discussion of this in Section 5.2). 5 5.1 Discussion Why Mimic Models Can Be More Accurate than Training on Original Labels It may be surprising that models trained on targets predicted by other models can be more accurate than models trained on the original labels. There are a variety of reasons why this can happen: 6 ? If some labels have errors, the teacher model may eliminate some of these errors (i.e., censor the data), thus making learning easier for the student. ? Similarly, if there are complex regions in p(y|X) that are difficult to learn given the features and sample density, the teacher may provide simpler, soft labels to the student. Complexity can be washed away by filtering targets through the teacher model. ? Learning from the original hard 0/1 labels can be more difficult than learning from a teacher?s conditional probabilities: on TIMIT only one of 183 outputs is non-zero on each training case, but the mimic model sees non-zero targets for most outputs on most training cases, and the teacher can spread uncertainty over multiple outputs for difficult cases. The uncertainty from the teacher model is more informative to the student model than the original 0/1 labels. This benefit is further enhanced by training on logits. ? The original targets may depend in part on features not available as inputs for learning, but the student model sees targets that depend only on the input features; the targets from the teacher model are a function only of the available inputs; the dependence on unavailable features has been eliminated by filtering targets through the teacher model. The mechanisms above can be seen as forms of regularization that help prevent overfitting in the student model. Typically, shallow models trained on the original targets are more prone to overfitting than deep models?they begin to overfit before learning the accurate functions learned by deeper models even with dropout (see Figure 2). If we had more effective regularization methods for shallow models, some of the performance gap between shallow and deep models might disappear. Model compression appears to be a form of regularization that is effective at reducing this gap. 77.5 SNN-8k SNN-8k + dropout SNN-Mimic-8k Phone Recognition Accuracy 77 76.5 76 75.5 75 74.5 74 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Number of Epochs Figure 2: Shallow mimic tends not to overfit. 5.2 The Capacity and Representational Power of Shallow Models Accuracy of Mimic Model on Dev Set Figure 3 shows results of an experiment with TIMIT where we trained shallow mimic mod83 els of two sizes (SNN-MIMIC-8k and SNNMIMIC-160k) on teacher models of different 82 accuracies. The two shallow mimic models are trained on the same number of data points. The only difference between them is the size of the 81 hidden layer. The x-axis shows the accuracy of the teacher model, and the y-axis is the accu80 racy of the mimic models. Lines parallel to the diagonal suggest that increases in the accuracy of the teacher models yield similar increases in 79 the accuracy of the mimic models. Although the data does not fall perfectly on a diagonal, 78 there is strong evidence that the accuracy of the 78 79 80 81 82 83 Accuracy of Teacher Model on Dev Set mimic models continues to increase as the accuracy of the teacher model improves, suggest- Figure 3: Accuracy of student models continues to ing that the mimic models are not (yet) running improve as accuracy of teacher models improves. out of capacity. When training on the same targets, SNN-MIMIC-8k always perform worse than SNN-MIMIC-160K that has 10 times more parameters. Although there is a consistent performance gap between the two models due to the difference in size, the smaller shallow model was eventually able to achieve a performance comparable to the larger shallow net by learning from a better teacher, and the accuracy of both models continues to increase as teacher accuracy increases. This suggests that shallow models with a number of parameters comparable to deep models probably are capable of learning even more accurate functions 7 Mimic with 8k Non-Linear Units Mimic with 160k Non-Linear Units y=x (no student-teacher gap) if a more accurate teacher and/or more unlabeled data become available. Similarly, on CIFAR-10 we saw that increasing the accuracy of the teacher model by forming an ensemble of deep CNNs yielded commensurate increase in the accuracy of the student model. We see little evidence that shallow models have limited capacity or representational power. Instead, the main limitation appears to be the learning and regularization procedures used to train the shallow models. 5.3 Parallel Distributed Processing vs. Deep Sequential Processing Our results show that shallow nets can be competitive with deep models on speech and vision tasks. In our experiments the deep models usually required 8?12 hours to train on Nvidia GTX 580 GPUs to reach the state-of-the-art performance on TIMIT and CIFAR-10 datasets. Interestingly, although some of the shallow mimic models have more parameters than the deep models, the shallow models train much faster and reach similar accuracies in only 1?2 hours. Also, given parallel computational resources, at run-time shallow models can finish computation in 2 or 3 cycles for a given input, whereas a deep architecture has to make sequential inference through each of its layers, expending a number of cycles proportional to the depth of the model. This benefit can be important in on-line inference settings where data parallelization is not as easy to achieve as it is in the batch inference setting. For real-time applications such as surveillance or real-time speech translation, a model that responds in fewer cycles can be beneficial. 6 Future Work The tiny images dataset contains 80 millions images. We are currently investigating whether, if by labeling these 80M images with a teacher, it is possible to train shallow models with no convolutional or pooling layers to mimic deep convolutional models. This paper focused on training the shallowest-possible models to mimic deep models in order to better understand the importance of model depth in learning. As suggested in Section 5.3, there are practical applications of this work as well: student models of small-to-medium size and depth can be trained to mimic very large, high-accuracy deep models, and ensembles of deep models, thus yielding better accuracy with reduced runtime cost than is currently achievable without model compression. This approach allows one to adjust flexibly the trade-off between accuracy and computational cost. In this paper we are able to demonstrate empirically that shallow models can, at least in principle, learn more accurate functions without a large increase in the number of parameters. The algorithm we use to do this?training the shallow model to mimic a more accurate deep model, however, is awkward. It depends on the availability of either a large unlabeled dataset (to reduce the gap between teacher and mimic model) or a teacher model of very high accuracy, or both. Developing algorithms to train shallow models of high accuracy directly from the original data without going through the intermediate teacher model would, if possible, be a significant contribution. 7 Conclusions We demonstrate empirically that shallow neural nets can be trained to achieve performances previously achievable only by deep models on the TIMIT phoneme recognition and CIFAR-10 image recognition tasks. Single-layer fully connected feedforward nets trained to mimic deep models can perform similarly to well-engineered complex deep convolutional architectures. The results suggest that the strength of deep learning may arise in part from a good match between deep architectures and current training procedures, and that it may be possible to devise better learning algorithms to train more accurate shallow feed-forward nets. For a given number of parameters, depth may make learning easier, but may not always be essential. Acknowledgements We thank Li Deng for generous help with TIMIT, Li Deng and Ossama AbdelHamid for the code for their deep convolutional TIMIT model, Chris Burges, Li Deng, Ran GiladBachrach, Tapas Kanungo and John Platt for discussion that significantly improved this work, David Johnson for help with the speech model, and Mike Aultman for help with the GPU cluster. 8 References [1] Ossama Abdel-Hamid, Abdel-rahman Mohamed, Hui Jiang, and Gerald Penn. Applying convolutional neural networks concepts to hybrid nn-hmm model for speech recognition. In Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing (ICASSP), 2012 IEEE International Conference on, pages 4277?4280. IEEE, 2012. [2] Ossama Abdel-Hamid, Li Deng, and Dong Yu. Exploring convolutional neural network structures and optimization techniques for speech recognition. Interspeech 2013, 2013. [3] Cristian Bucilu, Rich Caruana, and Alexandru Niculescu-Mizil. Model compression. In Proceedings of the 12th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, pages 535?541. ACM, 2006. [4] George Cybenko. Approximation by superpositions of a sigmoidal function. Mathematics of Control, Signals and Systems, 2(4):303?314, 1989. [5] Yann N Dauphin and Yoshua Bengio. arXiv:1301.3583, 2013. Big neural networks waste capacity. arXiv preprint [6] Li Deng, Jinyu Li, Jui-Ting Huang, Kaisheng Yao, Dong Yu, Frank Seide, Michael Seltzer, Geoff Zweig, Xiaodong He, Jason Williams, et al. Recent advances in deep learning for speech research at Microsoft. ICASSP 2013, 2013. [7] David Eigen, Jason Rolfe, Rob Fergus, and Yann LeCun. Understanding deep architectures using a recursive convolutional network. arXiv preprint arXiv:1312.1847, 2013. [8] Dumitru Erhan, Yoshua Bengio, Aaron Courville, Pierre-Antoine Manzagol, Pascal Vincent, and Samy Bengio. Why does unsupervised pre-training help deep learning? The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 11:625?660, 2010. [9] Ian Goodfellow, David Warde-Farley, Mehdi Mirza, Aaron Courville, and Yoshua Bengio. Maxout networks. In Proceedings of The 30th International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 1319?1327, 2013. [10] G.E. Hinton and R.R. Salakhutdinov. Reducing the dimensionality of data with neural networks. Science, 313(5786):504?507, 2006. [11] G.E. Hinton, N. Srivastava, A. Krizhevsky, I. Sutskever, and R.R. Salakhutdinov. Improving neural networks by preventing co-adaptation of feature detectors. arXiv preprint arXiv:1207.0580, 2012. [12] Alex Krizhevsky and Geoffrey Hinton. Learning multiple layers of features from tiny images. Computer Science Department, University of Toronto, Tech. Rep, 2009. [13] K.F. Lee and H.W. Hon. Speaker-independent phone recognition using hidden markov models. Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing, IEEE Transactions on, 37(11):1641?1648, 1989. [14] Abdel-rahman Mohamed, George E Dahl, and Geoffrey Hinton. Acoustic modeling using deep belief networks. Audio, Speech, and Language Processing, IEEE Transactions on, 20(1):14?22, 2012. [15] V. Nair and G.E. Hinton. Rectified linear units improve restricted boltzmann machines. In Proc. 27th International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 807?814. Omnipress Madison, WI, 2010. [16] Tara N Sainath, Brian Kingsbury, Vikas Sindhwani, Ebru Arisoy, and Bhuvana Ramabhadran. Low-rank matrix factorization for deep neural network training with high-dimensional output targets. In Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing (ICASSP), 2013 IEEE International Conference on, pages 6655?6659. IEEE, 2013. [17] Frank Seide, Gang Li, and Dong Yu. Conversational speech transcription using context-dependent deep neural networks. In Interspeech, pages 437?440, 2011. [18] Antonio Torralba, Robert Fergus, and William T Freeman. 80 million tiny images: A large data set for nonparametric object and scene recognition. Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, IEEE Transactions on, 30(11):1958?1970, 2008. [19] P. Vincent, H. Larochelle, I. Lajoie, Y. Bengio, and P.A. Manzagol. Stacked denoising autoencoders: Learning useful representations in a deep network with a local denoising criterion. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 11:3371?3408, 2010. [20] Jian Xue, Jinyu Li, and Yifan Gong. Restructuring of deep neural network acoustic models with singular value decomposition. Proc. Interspeech, Lyon, France, 2013. [21] Matthew D. Zeiler and Rob Fergus. Stochastic pooling for regularization of deep convolutional neural networks. arXiv preprint arXiv:1301.3557, 2013. 9
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Deep Convolutional Neural Network for Image Deconvolution Li Xu ? Lenovo Research & Technology xulihk@lenovo.com Jimmy SJ. Ren Lenovo Research & Technology jimmy.sj.ren@gmail.com Jiaya Jia The Chinese University of Hong Kong leojia@cse.cuhk.edu.hk Ce Liu Microsoft Research celiu@microsoft.com Abstract Many fundamental image-related problems involve deconvolution operators. Real blur degradation seldom complies with an ideal linear convolution model due to camera noise, saturation, image compression, to name a few. Instead of perfectly modeling outliers, which is rather challenging from a generative model perspective, we develop a deep convolutional neural network to capture the characteristics of degradation. We note directly applying existing deep neural networks does not produce reasonable results. Our solution is to establish the connection between traditional optimization-based schemes and a neural network architecture where a novel, separable structure is introduced as a reliable support for robust deconvolution against artifacts. Our network contains two submodules, both trained in a supervised manner with proper initialization. They yield decent performance on non-blind image deconvolution compared to previous generative-model based methods. 1 Introduction Many image and video degradation processes can be modeled as translation-invariant convolution. To restore these visual data, the inverse process, i.e., deconvolution, becomes a vital tool in motion deblurring [1, 2, 3, 4], super-resolution [5, 6], and extended depth of field [7]. In applications involving images captured by cameras, outliers such as saturation, limited image boundary, noise, or compression artifacts are unavoidable. Previous research has shown that improperly handling these problems could raise a broad set of artifacts related to image content, which are very difficult to remove. So there was work dedicated to modeling and addressing each particular type of artifacts in non-blind deconvolution for suppressing ringing artifacts [8], removing noise [9], and dealing with saturated regions [9, 10]. These methods can be further refined by incorporating patch-level statistics [11] or other schemes [4]. Because each method has its own specialty as well as limitation, there is no solution yet to uniformly address all these issues. One example is shown in Fig. 1 ? a partially saturated blur image with compression errors can already fail many existing approaches. One possibility to remove these artifacts is via employing generative models. However, these models are usually made upon strong assumptions, such as identical and independently distributed noise, which may not hold for real images. This accounts for the fact that even advanced algorithms can be affected when the image blur properties are slightly changed. ? Project webpage: http://www.lxu.me/projects/dcnn/. The paper is partially supported by a grant from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (Project No. 413113). 1 (a) ( b ) Krishnan et al . ( c ) Ours Figure 1: A challenging deconvolution example. (a) is the blurry input with partially saturated regions. (b) is the result of [3] using hyper-Laplacian prior. (c) is our result. In this paper, we initiate the procedure for natural image deconvolution not based on their physically or mathematically based characteristics. Instead, we show a new direction to build a data-driven system using image samples that can be easily produced from cameras or collected online. We use the convolutional neural network (CNN) to learn the deconvolution operation without the need to know the cause of visual artifacts. We also do not rely on any pre-process to deblur the image, unlike previous learning based approaches [12, 13]. In fact, it is non-trivial to find a proper network architecture for deconvolution. Previous de-noise neural network [14, 15, 16] cannot be directly adopted since deconvolution may involve many neighboring pixels and result in a very complex energy function with nonlinear degradation. This makes parameter learning quite challenging. In our work, we bridge the gap between an empirically-determined convolutional neural network and existing approaches with generative models in the context of pseudo-inverse of deconvolution. It enables a practical system and, more importantly, provides an empirically effective strategy to initialize the weights in the network, which otherwise cannot be easily obtained in the conventional random-initialization training procedure. Experiments show that our system outperforms previous ones especially when the blurred input images are partially saturated. 2 Related Work Deconvolution was studied in different fields due to its fundamentality in image restoration. Most previous methods tackle the problem from a generative perspective assuming known image noise model and natural image gradients following certain distributions. In the Richardson-Lucy method [17], image noise is assumed to follow a Poisson distribution. Wiener Deconvolution [18] imposes equivalent Gaussian assumption for both noise and image gradients. These early approaches suffer from overly smoothed edges and ringing artifacts. Recent development on deconvolution shows that regularization terms with sparse image priors are important to preserve sharp edges and suppress artifacts. The sparse image priors follow heavy-tailed distributions, such as a Gaussian Mixture Model [1, 11] or a hyper-Laplacian [7, 3], which could be efficiently optimized using half-quadratic (HQ) splitting [3]. To capture image statistics with larger spatial support, the energy is further modeled within a Conditional Random Field (CRF) framework [19] and on image patches [11]. While the last step of HQ method is quadratic optimization, Schmidt et al. [4] showed that it is possible to directly train a Gaussian CRF from synthetic blur data. To handle outliers such as saturation, Cho et al. [9] used variational EM to exclude outlier regions from a Gaussian likelihood. Whyte et al. [10] introduced an auxiliary variable in the RichardsonLucy method. An explicit denoise pass is added to deconvolution, where the denoise approach is carefully engineered [20] or trained from noisy data [12]. The generative approaches typically have difficulties to handle complex outliers that are not independent and identically distributed. 2 Another trend for image restoration is to leverage the deep neural network structure and big data to train the restoration function. The degradation is therefore no longer limited to one model regarding image noise. Burger et al. [14] showed that the plain multi-layer perceptrons can produce decent results and handle different types of noise. Xie et al. [15] showed that a stacked denoise autoencoder (SDAE) structure [21] is a good choice for denoise and inpainting. Agostinelli et al. [22] generalized it by combining multiple SDAE for handling different types of noise. In [23] and [16], the convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture [24] was used to handle strong noise such as raindrop and lens dirt. Schuler et al. [13] added MLPs to a direct deconvolution to remove artifacts. Though the network structure works well for denoise, it does not work similarly for deconvolution. How to adapt the architecture is the main problem to address in this paper. 3 Blur Degradation We consider real-world image blur that suffers from several types of degradation including clipped intensity (saturation), camera noise, and compression artifacts. The blur model is given by y? = ?b [?(?x ? k + n)], (1) where ?x represents the latent sharp image. The notation ? ? 1 is to indicate the fact that ?x could have values exceeding the dynamic range of camera sensors and thus be clipped. k is the known convolution kernel, or typically referred to as a point spread function (PSF), n models additive camera noise. ?(?) is a clipping function to model saturation, defined as ?(z) = min(z, zmax ), where zmax is a range threshold. ?b [?] is a nonlinear (e.g., JPEG) compression operator. We note that even with y? and kernel k, restoring ?x is intractable, simply because the information loss caused by clipping. In this regard, our goal is to restore the clipped input x ?, where x ? = ?(?x). Although solving for x? with a complex energy function that involves Eq. (1) is difficult, the generation of blurry image from an input x is quite straightforward by image synthesis according to the convolution model taking all kinds of possible image degradation into generation. This motivates a learning procedure for deconvolution, using training image pairs {? xi , y?i }, where index i ? N . 4 Analysis The goal is to train a network architecture f (?) that minimizes 1 X kf (? yi ) ? x?i k2 , 2|N | (2) i?N where |N | is the number of image pairs in the sample set. We have used the recent two deep neural networks to solve this problem, but failed. One is the Stacked Sparse Denoise Autoencoder (SSDAE) [15] and the other is the convolutional neural network (CNN) used in [16]. Both of them are designed for image denoise. For SSDAE, we use patch size 17 ? 17 as suggested in [14]. The CNN implementation is provided by the authors of [16]. We collect two million sharp patches together with their blurred versions in training. One example is shown in Fig. 2 where (a) is a blurred image. Fig. 2(b) and (c) show the results of SSDAE and CNN. The result of SSDAE in (b) is still blurry. The CNN structure works relatively better. But it suffers from remaining blurry edges and strong ghosting artifacts. This is because these network structures are for denoise and do not consider necessary deconvolution properties. More explanations are provided from a generative perspective in what follows. 4.1 Pseudo Inverse Kernels The deconvolution task can be approximated by a convolutional network by nature. We consider the following simple linear blur model y = x ? k. The spatial convolution can be transformed to a frequency domain multiplication, yielding F (y) = F (x) ? F (k). 3 (a) input (b) SSDAE [15] (c) CNN [16] (d) Ours Figure 2: Existing stacked denoise autoencoder and convolutional neural network structures cannot solve the deconvolution problem. (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) Figure 3: Pseudo inverse kernel and deconvolution examples. F (?) denotes the discrete Fourier transform (DFT). Operator ? is element-wise multiplication. In Fourier domain, x can be obtained as x = F ?1 (F (y)/F (k)) = F ?1 (1/F (k)) ? y, where F ?1 is the inverse discrete Fourier transform. While the solver for x is written in a form of spatial convolution with a kernel F ?1 (1/F (k)), the kernel is actually a repetitive signal spanning the whole spatial domain without a compact support. When noise arises, regularization terms are commonly involved to avoid division-by-zero in frequency domain, which makes the pseudo inverse falls off quickly in spatial domain [25]. The classical Wiener deconvolution is equivalent to using Tikhonov regularizer [2]. The Wiener deconvolution can be expressed as x = F ?1 ( |F (k)|2 1 { }) ? y = k ? ? y, F (k) |F (k)|2 + SN1 R where SN R is the signal-to-noise ratio. k ? denotes the pseudo inverse kernel. Strong noise leads to a large SN1 R , which corresponds to strongly regularized inversion. We note that with the introduction of SN R, k ? becomes compact with a finite support. Fig. 3(a) shows a disk blur kernel of radius 7, which is commonly used to model focal blur. The pseudo-inverse kernel k ? with SN R = 1E ? 4 is given in Fig. 3(b). A blurred image with this kernel is shown in Fig. 3(c). Deconvolution results with k ? are in (d). A level of blur is removed from the image. But noise and saturation cause visual artifacts, in compliance with our understanding of Wiener deconvolution. Although the Wiener method is not state-of-the-art, its byproduct that the inverse kernel is with a finite yet large spatial support becomes vastly useful in our neural network system, which manifests that deconvolution can be well approximated by spatial convolution with sufficiently large kernels. This explains unsuccessful application of SSDA and CNN directly to deconvolution in Fig. 2 as follows. ? SSDA does not capture well the nature of convolution with its fully connected structures. ? CNN performs better since deconvolution can be approximated by large-kernel convolution as explained above. 4 ? Previous CNN uses small convolution kernels. It is however not an appropriate configuration in our deconvolution problem. It thus can be summarized that using deep neural networks to perform deconvolution is by no means straightforward. Simply modifying the network by employing large convolution kernels would lead to higher difficulties in training. We present a new structure to update the network in what follows. Our result in Fig. 3 is shown in (e). 5 Network Architecture We transform the simple pseudo inverse kernel for deconvolution into a convolutional network, based on the kernel separability theorem. It makes the network more expressive with the mapping to higher dimensions to accommodate nonlinearity. This system is benefited from large training data. 5.1 Kernel Separability Kernel separability is achieved via singular value decomposition (SVD) [26]. Given the inverse kernel k ? , decomposition k ? = U SV T exists. We denote by uj and vj the j th columns of U and V , sj the j th singular value. The original pseudo deconvolution can be expressed as X sj ? uj ? (vjT ? y), (3) k? ? y = j which shows 2D convolution can be deemed as a weighted sum of separable 1D filters. In practice, we can well approximate k ? by a small number of separable filters by dropping out kernels associated with zero or very small sj . We have experimented with real blur kernels to ignore singular values smaller than 0.01. The resulting average number of separable kernels is about 30 [25]. Using a smaller SN R ratio, the inverse kernel has a smaller spatial support. We also found that an inverse kernel with length 100 is typically enough to generate visually plausible deconvolution results. This is important information in designing the network architecture. 5.2 Image Deconvolution CNN (DCNN) We describe our image deconvolution convolutional neural network (DCNN) based on the separable kernels. This network is expressed as h3 = W3 ? h2 ; hl = ?(Wl ? hl?1 + bl?1 ), l ? {1, 2}; h0 = y?, where Wl is the weight mapping the (l ? 1)th layer to the lth one and bl?1 is the vector value bias. ?(?) is the nonlinear function, which can be sigmoid or hyperbolic tangent. Our network contains two hidden layers similar to the separable kernel inversion setting. The first hidden layer h1 is generated by applying 38 large-scale one-dimensional kernels of size 121 ? 1, according to the analysis in Section 5.1. The values 38 and 121 are empirically determined, which can be altered for different inputs. The second hidden layer h2 is generated by applying 38 1 ? 121 convolution kernels to each of the 38 maps in h1 . To generate results, a 1 ? 1 ? 38 kernel is applied, analogous to the linear combination using singular value sj . The architecture has several advantages for deconvolution. First, it assembles separable kernel inversion for deconvolution and therefore is guaranteed to be optimal. Second, the nonlinear terms and high dimensional structure make the network more expressive than traditional pseudo-inverse. It is reasonably robust to outliers. 5.3 Training DCNN The network can be trained either by random-weight initialization or by the initialization from the separable kernel inversion, since they share the exact same structure. We experiment with both strategies on natural images, which are all degraded by additive Gaussian noise (AWG) and JPEG compression. These images are in two categories ? one with strong color saturation and one without. Note saturation affects many existing deconvolution algorithms a lot. 5 Figure 4: PSNRs produced in different stages of our convolutional neural network architecture. (a) Separable kernel inversion (b) Random initialization (c) Separable kernel initialization (d) ODCNN output Figure 5: Results comparisons in different stages of our deconvolution CNN. The PSNRs are shown as the first three bars in Fig. 4. We obtain the following observations. ? The trained network has an advantage over simply performing separable kernel inversion, no matter with random initialization or initialization from pseudo-inverse. Our interpretation is that the network, with high dimensional mapping and nonlinearity, is more expressive than simple separable kernel inversion. ? The method with separable kernel inversion initialization yields higher PSNRs than that with random initialization, suggesting that initial values affect this network and thus can be tuned. Visual comparison is provided in Fig. 5(a)-(c), where the results of separable kernel inversion, training with random weights, and of training with separable kernel inversion initialization are shown. The result in (c) obviously contains sharp edges and more details. Note that the final trained DCNN is not equivalent to any existing inverse-kernel function even with various regularization, due to the involved high-dimensional mapping with nonlinearities. The performance of deconvolution CNN decreases for images with color saturation. Visual artifacts could also be yielded due to noise and compression. We in the next section turn to a deeper structure to address these remaining problems, by incorporating a denoise CNN module. 5.4 Outlier-rejection Deconvolution CNN (ODCNN) Our complete network is formed as the concatenation of the deconvolution CNN module with a denoise CNN [16]. The overall structure is shown in Fig. 6. The denoise CNN module has two hidden layers with 512 feature maps. The input image is convolved with 512 kernels of size 16 ? 16 to be fed into the hidden layer. The two network modules are concatenated in our system by combining the last layer of deconvolution CNN with the input of denoise CNN. This is done by merging the 1 ? 1 ? 36 kernel with 512 16 ? 16 kernels to generate 512 kernels of size 16 ? 16 ? 36. Note that there is no nonlinearity when combining the two modules. While the number of weights grows due to the merge, it allows for a flexible procedure and achieves decent performance, by further incorporating fine tuning. 6 64x184x38 49x49x512 64x64x38 49x49x512 184x184 kernel size 1x121 56x56 kernel size 121x1 kernel size 16x16x38 kernel size 1x1x512 kernel size 8x8x512 Outlier Rejection Sub-Network Deconvolution Sub-Network Restoration Figure 6: Our complete network architecture for deep deconvolution. 5.5 Training ODCNN We blur natural images for training ? thus it is easy to obtain a large number of data. Specifically, we use 2,500 natural images downloaded from Flickr. Two million patches are randomly sampled from them. Concatenating the two network modules can describe the deconvolution process and enhance the ability to suppress unwanted structures. We train the sub-networks separately. The deconvolution CNN is trained using the initialization from separable inversion as described before. The output of deconvolution CNN is then taken as the input of the denoise CNN. Fine tuning is performed by feeding one hundred thousand 184?184 patches into the whole network. The training samples contain all patches possibly with noise, saturation, and compression artifacts. The statistics of adding denoise CNN are also plotted in Fig. 4. The outlier-rejection CNN after fine tuning improves the overall performance up to 2dB, especially for those saturated regions. 6 More Discussions Our approach differs from previous ones in several ways. First, we identify the necessity of using a relatively large kernel support for convolutional neural network to deal with deconvolution. To avoid rapid weight-size expansion, we advocate the use of 1D kernels. Second, we propose a supervised pre-training on the sub-network that corresponds to reinterpretation of Wiener deconvolution. Third, we apply traditional deconvolution to network initialization, where generative solvers can guide neural network learning and significantly improve performance. Fig. 6 shows that a new convolutional neural network architecture is capable of dealing with deconvolution. Without a good understanding of the functionality of each sub-net and performing supervised pre-training, however, it is difficult to make the network work very well. Training the whole network with random initialization is less preferred because the training algorithm stops halfway without further energy reduction. The corresponding results are similarly blurry as the input images. To understand it, we visualize intermediate results from the deconvolutional CNN sub-network, which generates 38 intermediate maps. The results are shown in Fig. 7, where (a) is the selected three results obtained by random-initialization training and (b) is the results at the corresponding nodes from our better-initialized process. The maps in (a) look like the high-frequency part of the blurry input, indicating random initialization is likely to generate high-pass filters. Without proper starting values, its chance is very small to reach the component maps shown in (b) where sharper edges present, fully usable for further denoise and artifact removal. Zeiler et al. [27] showed that sparsely regularized deconvolution can be used to extract useful middle-level representation in their deconvolution network. Our deconvolution CNN can be used to approximate this structure, unifying the process in a deeper convolutional neural network. 7 (a) (b) Figure 7: Comparisons of intermediate results from deconvolution CNN. (a) Maps from random initialization. (b) More informative maps with our initialization scheme. kernel type Krishnan [3] Levin [7] disk sat. 24.05dB 24.44dB disk 25.94dB 24.54dB motion sat. 24.07dB 23.58dB motion 25.07dB 24.47 dB Cho [9] Whyte [10] Schuler [13] Schmidt [4] 25.35dB 24.47dB 23.14dB 24.01dB 23.97dB 22.84dB 24.67dB 24.71dB 25.65 dB 25.54dB 24.92dB 25.33dB 24.29dB 23.65dB 25.27dB 25.49dB Ours 26.23dB 26.01dB 27.76dB 27.92dB Table 1: Quantitative comparison on the evaluation image set. (a) Input (b) Levin et al. [7] (c) Krishnan et al. [3] (d) EPLL [11] (e) Cho et al. [9] (f) Whyte et al. [10] (g) Schuler et al. [13] (h) Ours Figure 8: Visual comparison of deconvolution results. 7 Experiments and Conclusion We have presented several deconvolution results. Here we show quantitative evaluation of our method against state-of-the-art approaches, including sparse prior deconvolution [7], hyperLaplacian prior method [3], variational EM for outliers [9], saturation-aware approach [10], learning based approach [13] and the discriminative approach [4]. We compare performance using both disk and motion kernels. The average PSNRs are listed in Table 1. Fig. 8 shows a visual comparison. Our method achieves decent results quantitatively and visually. The implementation, as well as the dataset, is available at the project webpage. To conclude this paper, we have proposed a new deep convolutional network structure for the challenging image deconvolution task. Our main contribution is to let traditional deconvolution schemes guide neural networks and approximate deconvolution by a series of convolution steps. Our system novelly uses two modules corresponding to deconvolution and artifact removal. While the network is difficult to train as a whole, we adopt two supervised pre-training steps to initialize sub-networks. High-quality deconvolution results bear out the effectiveness of this approach. References [1] Fergus, R., Singh, B., Hertzmann, A., Roweis, S.T., Freeman, W.T.: Removing camera shake from a single photograph. ACM Trans. Graph. 25(3) (2006) 8 [2] Levin, A., Weiss, Y., Durand, F., Freeman, W.T.: Understanding and evaluating blind deconvolution algorithms. In: CVPR. (2009) [3] Krishnan, D., Fergus, R.: Fast image deconvolution using hyper-laplacian priors. In: NIPS. (2009) [4] Schmidt, U., Rother, C., Nowozin, S., Jancsary, J., Roth, S.: Discriminative non-blind deblurring. In: CVPR. (2013) [5] Agrawal, A.K., Raskar, R.: Resolving objects at higher resolution from a single motion-blurred image. In: CVPR. (2007) [6] Michaeli, T., Irani, M.: Nonparametric blind super-resolution. In: ICCV. (2013) [7] Levin, A., Fergus, R., Durand, F., Freeman, W.T.: Image and depth from a conventional camera with a coded aperture. ACM Trans. Graph. 26(3) (2007) [8] Yuan, L., Sun, J., Quan, L., Shum, H.Y.: Progressive inter-scale and intra-scale non-blind image deconvolution. ACM Trans. Graph. 27(3) (2008) [9] Cho, S., Wang, J., Lee, S.: Handling outliers in non-blind image deconvolution. In: ICCV. (2011) [10] Whyte, O., Sivic, J., Zisserman, A.: Deblurring shaken and partially saturated images. In: ICCV Workshops. (2011) [11] Zoran, D., Weiss, Y.: From learning models of natural image patches to whole image restoration. In: ICCV. (2011) [12] Kenig, T., Kam, Z., Feuer, A.: Blind image deconvolution using machine learning for threedimensional microscopy. IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell. 32(12) (2010) [13] Schuler, C.J., Burger, H.C., Harmeling, S., Sch?olkopf, B.: A machine learning approach for non-blind image deconvolution. In: CVPR. (2013) [14] Burger, H.C., Schuler, C.J., Harmeling, S.: Image denoising: Can plain neural networks compete with bm3d? In: CVPR. (2012) [15] Xie, J., Xu, L., Chen, E.: Image denoising and inpainting with deep neural networks. In: NIPS. (2012) [16] Eigen, D., Krishnan, D., Fergus, R.: Restoring an image taken through a window covered with dirt or rain. In: ICCV. (2013) [17] Richardson, W.: Bayesian-based iterative method of image restoration. Journal of the Optical Society of America 62(1) (1972) [18] Wiener, N.: Extrapolation, interpolation, and smoothing of stationary time series: with engineering applications. Journal of the American Statistical Association 47(258) (1949) [19] Roth, S., Black, M.J.: Fields of experts. International Journal of Computer Vision 82(2) (2009) [20] Dabov, K., Foi, A., Katkovnik, V., Egiazarian, K.O.: Image restoration by sparse 3d transformdomain collaborative filtering. In: Image Processing: Algorithms and Systems. (2008) [21] Vincent, P., Larochelle, H., Lajoie, I., Bengio, Y., Manzagol, P.A.: Stacked denoising autoencoders: Learning useful representations in a deep network with a local denoising criterion. Journal of Machine Learning Research 11 (2010) [22] Agostinelli, F., Anderson, M.R., Lee, H.: Adaptive multi-column deep neural networks with application to robust image denoising. In: NIPS. (2013) [23] Jain, V., Seung, H.S.: Natural image denoising with convolutional networks. In: NIPS. (2008) [24] LeCun, Y., Bottou, L., Bengio, Y., Haffner, P.: Gradient-based learning applied to document recognition. Proceedings of the IEEE 86(11) (1998) [25] Xu, L., Tao, X., Jia, J.: Inverse kernels for fast spatial deconvolution. In: ECCV. (2014) [26] Perona, P.: Deformable kernels for early vision. IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell. 17(5) (1995) [27] Zeiler, M.D., Krishnan, D., Taylor, G.W., Fergus, R.: Deconvolutional networks. In: CVPR. (2010) 9
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Identifying and attacking the saddle point problem in high-dimensional non-convex optimization Yann N. Dauphin Razvan Pascanu Caglar Gulcehre Kyunghyun Cho Universit?e de Montr?eal dauphiya@iro.umontreal.ca, r.pascanu@gmail.com, gulcehrc@iro.umontreal.ca, kyunghyun.cho@umontreal.ca Yoshua Bengio Universit?e de Montr?eal, CIFAR Fellow yoshua.bengio@umontreal.ca Surya Ganguli Stanford University sganguli@standford.edu Abstract A central challenge to many fields of science and engineering involves minimizing non-convex error functions over continuous, high dimensional spaces. Gradient descent or quasi-Newton methods are almost ubiquitously used to perform such minimizations, and it is often thought that a main source of difficulty for these local methods to find the global minimum is the proliferation of local minima with much higher error than the global minimum. Here we argue, based on results from statistical physics, random matrix theory, neural network theory, and empirical evidence, that a deeper and more profound difficulty originates from the proliferation of saddle points, not local minima, especially in high dimensional problems of practical interest. Such saddle points are surrounded by high error plateaus that can dramatically slow down learning, and give the illusory impression of the existence of a local minimum. Motivated by these arguments, we propose a new approach to second-order optimization, the saddle-free Newton method, that can rapidly escape high dimensional saddle points, unlike gradient descent and quasi-Newton methods. We apply this algorithm to deep or recurrent neural network training, and provide numerical evidence for its superior optimization performance. 1 Introduction It is often the case that our geometric intuition, derived from experience within a low dimensional physical world, is inadequate for thinking about the geometry of typical error surfaces in high-dimensional spaces. To illustrate this, consider minimizing a randomly chosen error function of a single scalar variable, given by a single draw of a Gaussian process. (Rasmussen and Williams, 2005) have shown that such a random error function would have many local minima and maxima, with high probability over the choice of the function, but saddles would occur with negligible probability. On the other-hand, as we review below, typical, random Gaussian error functions over N scalar variables, or dimensions, are increasingly likely to have saddle points rather than local minima as N increases. Indeed the ratio of the number of saddle points to local minima increases exponentially with the dimensionality N. A typical problem for both local minima and saddle-points is that they are often surrounded by plateaus of small curvature in the error. While gradient descent dynamics are repelled away from a saddle point to lower error by following directions of negative curvature, this repulsion can occur slowly due to the plateau. Second order methods, like the Newton method, are designed to rapidly descend plateaus surrounding local minima by multiplying the gradient steps with the inverse of the Hessian matrix. However, the Newton method does not treat saddle points appropriately; as argued below, saddle-points instead become attractive under the Newton dynamics. Thus, given the proliferation of saddle points, not local minima, in high dimensional problems, the entire theoretical justification for quasi-Newton methods, i.e. the ability to rapidly descend to the bottom of a convex local minimum, becomes less relevant in high dimensional non-convex optimization. In this work, which 1 is an extension of the previous report Pascanu et al. (2014), we first want to raise awareness of this issue, and second, propose an alternative approach to second-order optimization that aims to rapidly escape from saddle points. This algorithm leverages second-order curvature information in a fundamentally different way than quasi-Newton methods, and also, in numerical experiments, outperforms them in some high dimensional problems involving deep or recurrent networks. 2 The prevalence of saddle points in high dimensions Here we review arguments from disparate literatures suggesting that saddle points, not local minima, provide a fundamental impediment to rapid high dimensional non-convex optimization. One line of evidence comes from statistical physics. Bray and Dean (2007); Fyodorov and Williams (2007) study the nature of critical points of random Gaussian error functions on high dimensional continuous domains using replica theory (see Parisi (2007) for a recent review of this approach). One particular result by Bray and Dean (2007) derives how critical points are distributed in the  vs ? plane, where ? is the index, or the fraction of negative eigenvalues of the Hessian at the critical point, and  is the error attained at the critical point. Within this plane, critical points concentrate on a monotonically increasing curve as ? ranges from 0 to 1, implying a strong correlation between the error  and the index ?: the larger the error the larger the index. The probability of a critical point to be an O(1) distance off the curve is exponentially small in the dimensionality N, for large N. This implies that critical points with error  much larger than that of the global minimum, are exponentially likely to be saddle points, with the fraction of negative curvature directions being an increasing function of the error. Conversely, all local minima, which necessarily have index 0, are likely to have an error very close to that of the global minimum. Intuitively, in high dimensions, the chance that all the directions around a critical point lead upward (positive curvature) is exponentially small w.r.t. the number of dimensions, unless the critical point is the global minimum or stands at an error level close to it, i.e., it is unlikely one can find a way to go further down. These results may also be understood via random matrix theory. We know that for a large Gaussian random matrix the eigenvalue distribution follows Wigner?s famous semicircular law (Wigner, 1958), with both mode and mean at 0. The probability of an eigenvalue to be positive or negative is thus 1/2. Bray and Dean (2007) showed that the eigenvalues of the Hessian at a critical point are distributed in the same way, except that the semicircular spectrum is shifted by an amount determined by . For the global minimum, the spectrum is shifted so far right, that all eigenvalues are positive. As  increases, the spectrum shifts to the left and accrues more negative eigenvalues as well as a density of eigenvalues around 0, indicating the typical presence of plateaus surrounding saddle points at large error. Such plateaus would slow the convergence of first order optimization methods, yielding the illusion of a local minimum. The random matrix perspective also concisely and intuitively crystallizes the striking difference between the geometry of low and high dimensional error surfaces. For N =1, an exact saddle point is a 0?probability event as it means randomly picking an eigenvalue of exactly 0. As N grows it becomes exponentially unlikely to randomly pick all eigenvalues to be positive or negative, and therefore most critical points are saddle points. Fyodorov and Williams (2007) review qualitatively similar results derived for random error functions superimposed on a quadratic error surface. These works indicate that for typical, generic functions chosen from a random Gaussian ensemble of functions, local minima with high error are exponentially rare in the dimensionality of the problem, but saddle points with many negative and approximate plateau directions are exponentially likely. However, is this result for generic error landscapes applicable to the error landscapes of practical problems of interest? Baldi and Hornik (1989) analyzed the error surface of a multilayer perceptron (MLP) with a single linear hidden layer. Such an error surface shows only saddle-points and no local minima. This result is qualitatively consistent with the observation made by Bray and Dean (2007). Indeed Saxe et al. (2014) analyzed the dynamics of learning in the presence of these saddle points, and showed that they arise due to scaling symmetries in the weight space of a deep linear MLP. These scaling symmetries enabled Saxe et al. (2014) to find new exact solutions to the nonlinear dynamics of learning in deep linear networks. These learning dynamics exhibit plateaus of high error followed by abrupt transitions to better performance. They qualitatively recapitulate aspects of the hierarchical development of semantic concepts in infants (Saxe et al., 2013). In (Saad and Solla, 1995) the dynamics of stochastic gradient descent are analyzed for soft committee machines. This work explores how well a student network can learn to imitate a randomly chosen teacher network. Importantly, it was observed that learning can go through an initial phase of being trapped in the symmetric submanifold of weight space. In this submanifold, the student?s hidden units compute similar functions over the distribution of inputs. The slow learning dynamics within this submanifold originates from saddle point structures (caused by permutation symmetries among hidden units), and their associated 2 CIFAR-10 MNIST (a) (b) (c) (d) Figure 1: (a) and (c) show how critical points are distributed in the ?? plane. Note that they concentrate along a monotonically increasing curve. (b) and (d) plot the distributions of eigenvalues of the Hessian at three different critical points. Note that the y axes are in logarithmic scale. The vertical lines in (b) and (d) depict the position of 0. plateaus (Rattray et al., 1998; Inoue et al., 2003). The exit from the plateau associated with the symmetric submanifold corresponds to the differentiation of the student?s hidden units to mimic the teacher?s hidden units. Interestingly, this exit from the plateau is achieved by following directions of negative curvature associated with a saddle point. sin directions perpendicular to the symmetric submanifold. Mizutani and Dreyfus (2010) look at the effect of negative curvature on learning and implicitly at the effect of saddle points in the error surface. Their findings are similar. They show that the error surface of a single layer MLP has saddle points where the Hessian matrix is indefinite. 3 Experimental validation of the prevalence of saddle points In this section, we experimentally test whether the theoretical predictions presented by Bray and Dean (2007) for random Gaussian fields hold for neural networks. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to measure the relevant statistical properties of neural network error surfaces and to test if the theory developed for random Gaussian fields generalizes to such cases. In particular, we are interested in how the critical points of a single layer MLP are distributed in the ?? plane, and how the eigenvalues of the Hessian matrix at these critical points are distributed. We used a small MLP trained on a down-sampled version of MNIST and CIFAR-10. Newton method was used to identify critical points of the error function. The results are in Fig. 1. More details about the setup are provided in the supplementary material. This empirical test confirms that the observations by Bray and Dean (2007) qualitatively hold for neural networks. Critical points concentrate along a monotonically increasing curve in the ?? plane. Thus the prevalence of high error saddle points do indeed pose a severe problem for training neural networks. While the eigenvalues do not seem to be exactly distributed according to the semicircular law, their distribution does shift to the left as the error increases. The large mode at 0 indicates that there is a plateau around any critical point of the error function of a neural network. 4 Dynamics of optimization algorithms near saddle points Given the prevalence of saddle points, it is important to understand how various optimization algorithms behave near them. Let us focus on non-degenerate saddle points for which the Hessian is not singular. These critical points can be locally analyzed by re-parameterizing the function according to Morse?s lemma below (see chapter 7.3, Theorem 7.16 in Callahan (2010) or the supplementary material for details): n f(?? +??)=f(??)+ ? 1X ?i?vi2, 2 i=1 (1) where ?i represents the ith eigenvalue of the Hessian, and ?vi are the new parameters of the model corresponding to motion along the eigenvectors ei of the Hessian of f at ??. If finding the local minima of our function is the desired outcome of our optimization algorithm, we argue that an optimal algorithm would move away from the saddle point at a speed that is inverse proportional with the flatness of the error surface and hence depndented of how trustworthy this descent direction is further away from the current position. 3 A step of the gradient descent method always points away from the saddle point close to it (SGD in Fig. 2). Assuming equation (1) is a good approximation of our function we will analyze the optimality of the step according to how well the resulting ?v optimizes the right hand side of (1). If an eigenvalue ?i is positive (negative), then the step moves toward (away) from ?? along ?vi because the restriction of f to the corresponding eigenvector direction ?vi, achieves a minimum (maximum) at ??. The drawback of the gradient descent method is not the direction, but the size of the step along each eigenvector. The step, along any direction ei, is given by ??i?vi, and so small steps are taken in directions corresponding to eigenvalues of small absolute value. Figure 2: Behaviors of different optimization methods near a saddle point for (a) classical saddle structure 5x2 ?y2; (b) monkey saddle structure x3 ?3xy2. The yellow dot indicates the starting point. SFN stands for the saddle-free Newton method we proposed. (a) (b) The Newton method solves the slowness problem by rescaling the gradients in each direction with the inverse of the corresponding eigenvalue, yielding the step ??vi. However, this approach can result in moving toward the saddle point. Specifically, if an eigenvalue is negative, the Newton step moves along the eigenvector in a direction opposite to the gradient descent step, and thus moves in the direction of ??. ?? becomes an attractor for the Newton method (see Fig. 2), which can get stuck in this saddle point and not converge to a local minima. This justifies using the Newton method to find critical points of any index in Fig. 1. A trust region approach is one approach of scaling second order methods to non-convex problems. In one such method, the Hessian is damped to remove negative curvature by adding a constant ? to its diagonal, which is equivalent to adding ? to each of its eigenvalues. If we project the new step along the different eigenvectors of the modified Hessian, it is equivalent to rescaling the projections ofthe gradient on this direction by the inverse of the modified eigenvalues ?i +? yields the step ? ?i/?i +? ?vi. To ensure the algorithm does not converge to the saddle point, one must increase the damping coefficient ? enough so that ?min +?>0 even for the most negative eigenvalue ?min. This ensures that the modified Hessian is positive definnite. However, the drawback is again a potentially small step size in many eigen-directions incurred by a large damping factor ? (the rescaling factors in each eigen-direction are not proportional to the curvature anymore). Besides damping, another approach to deal with negative curvature is to ignore them. This can be done regardless of the approximation strategy used for the Newton method such as a truncated Newton method or a BFGS approximation (see Nocedal and Wright (2006) chapters 4 and 7). However, such algorithms cannot escape saddle points, as they ignore the very directions of negative curvature that must be followed to achieve escape. Natural gradient descent is a first order method that relies on the curvature of the parameter manifold. That is, natural gradient descent takes a step that induces a constant change in the behaviour of the model as measured by the KL-divergence between the model before and after taking the step. The resulting algorithm is similar to the Newton method, except that it relies on the Fisher Information matrix F. It is argued by Rattray et al. (1998); Inoue et al. (2003) that natural gradient descent can address certain saddle point structures effectively. Specifically, it can resolve those saddle points arising from having units behaving very similarly. Mizutani and Dreyfus (2010), however, argue that natural gradient descent also suffers with negative curvature. One particular known issue is the over-realizable regime, where around the stationary solution ??, the Fisher matrix is rank-deficient. Numerically, this means that the Gauss-Newton direction can be orthogonal to the gradient at some distant point from ?? (Mizutani and Dreyfus, 2010), causing optimization to converge to some non-stationary point. Another weakness is that the difference S between the Hessian and the Fisher Information Matrix can be large near certain saddle points that exhibit strong negative curvature. This means that the landscape close to these critical points may be dominated by S, meaning that the rescaling provided by F?1 is not optimal in all directions. The same is true for TONGA (Le Roux et al., 2007), an algorithm similar to natural gradient descent. It uses the covariance of the gradients as the rescaling factor. As these gradients vanish approaching a critical point, their covariance will result in much larger steps than needed near critical points. 4 5 Generalized trust region methods In order to attack the saddle point problem, and overcome the deficiencies of the above methods, we will define a class of generalized trust region methods, and search for an algorithm within this space. This class involves a straightforward extension of classical trust region methods via two simple changes: (1) We allow the minimization of a first-order Taylor expansion of the function instead of always relying on a second-order Taylor expansion as is typically done in trust region methods, and (2) we replace the constraint on the norm of the step ?? by a constraint on the distance between ? and ?+??. Thus the choice of distance function and Taylor expansion order specifies an algorithm. If we define Tk (f,?,??) to indicate the k-th order Taylor series expansion of f around ? evaluated at ?+??, then we can summarize a generalized trust region method as: ?? =argminTk {f,?,??} with k ?{1,2}s. t. d(?,?+??)??. ?? (2) For example, the ?-damped Newton method described above arises as a special case with k = 2 and d(?,?+??)=||??||22, where ? is implicitly a function of ?. 6 Attacking the saddle point problem We now search for a solution to the saddle-point problem within the family of generalized trust region Algorithm 1 Approximate saddle-free Newton methods. In particular, the analysis of optimization algorithms near saddle points discussed in Sec. 4 Require: Function f(?) to minimize suggests a simple heuristic solution: rescale the grafor i=1?M do 2 dient along each eigen-direction ei by 1/|?i |. This V ?k Lanczos vectors of ???f2 achieves the same optimal rescaling as the Newton s(?)=f(?+V?) 2 method, while preserving the sign of the gradient, ? s ? |H|? ?? thereby turning saddle points into repellers, not at2 by using an eigen decomposition of tractors, of the learning dynamics. The idea of taking ? H the absolute value of the eigenvalues of the Hessian for j =1?m do was suggested before. See, for example, (Nocedal ?s g ?? ?? and Wright, 2006, chapter 3.4) or Murray (2010, ?1 ? ??argmin?s((|H|+?I) g) chapter 4.1). However, we are not aware of any ?1 ? proper justification of this algorithm or even a de? ??+V(|H|+?I) g tailed exploration (empirical or otherwise) of this end for idea. One cannot simply replace H by |H|, where end for |H| is the matrix obtained by taking the absolute value of each eigenvalue of H, without proper justification. While we might be able to argue that this heuristic modification does the right thing near critical points, is it still the right thing far away from the critical points? How can we express this step in terms of the existing methods ? Here we show this heuristic solution arises naturally from our generalized trust region approach. Unlike classical trust region approaches, we consider minimizing a first-order Taylor expansion of the loss (k = 1 in Eq. (2)). This means that the curvature information has to come from the constraint by picking a suitable distance measure d (see Eq. (2)). Since the minimum of the first order approximation of f is at infinity, we know that this optimization dynamics will always jump to the border of the trust region. So we must ask how far from ? can we trust the first order approximation of f? One answer is to bound the discrepancy between the first and second order Taylor expansions of f by imposing the following constraint: 1 1 d(?,?+??)= f(?)+?f??+ ??>H???f(?)??f?? = ??>H?? ??, (3) 2 2 where ?f is the partial derivative of f with respect to ? and ??R is some small value that indicates how much discrepancy we are willing to accept. Note that the distance measure d takes into account the curvature of the function. Eq. (3) is not easy to solve for ?? in more than one dimension. Alternatively, one could take the square of the distance, but this would yield an optimization problem with a constraint that is quartic in ??, and therefore also difficult to solve. We circumvent these difficulties through a Lemma: 5 MNIST (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) CIFAR-10 (a) Figure 3: Empirical evaluation of different optimization algorithms for a single-layer MLP trained on the rescaled MNIST and CIFAR-10 dataset. In (a) and (d) we look at the minimum error obtained by the different algorithms considered as a function of the model size. (b) and (e) show the optimal training curves for the three algorithms. The error is plotted as a function of the number of epochs. (c) and (f) track the norm of the largest negative eigenvalue. Lemma 1. Let A be a nonsingular square matrix in Rn ?Rn, and x?Rn be some vector. Then it holds that |x>Ax|?x>|A|x, where |A| is the matrix obtained by taking the absolute value of each of the eigenvalues of A. Proof. See the supplementary material for the proof. Instead of the originally proposed distance measure in Eq. (3), we approximate the distance by its upper bound ??|H|?? based on Lemma 1. This results in the following generalized trust region method: ?? =argminf(?)+?f?? s. t. ??>|H|?? ??. ?? (4) Note that as discussed before, we can replace the inequality constraint with an equality one, as the first order approximation of f has a minimum at infinity and the algorithm always jumps to the border of the trust region. Similar to (Pascanu and Bengio, 2014), we use Lagrange multipliers to obtain the solution of this constrained optimization. This gives (up to a scalar that we fold into the learning rate) a step of the form: ?? =??f|H|?1 (5) This algorithm, which we call the saddle-free Newton method (SFN), leverages curvature information in a fundamentally different way, to define the shape of the trust region, rather than Taylor expansion to second order, as in classical methods. Unlike gradient descent, it can move further (less) in the directions of low (high) curvature. It is identical to the Newton method when the Hessian is positive definite, but unlike the Newton method, it can escape saddle points. Furthermore, unlike gradient descent, the escape is rapid even along directions of weak negative curvature (see Fig. 2). The exact implementation of this algorithm is intractable in a high dimensional problem, because it requires the exact computation of the Hessian. Instead we use an approach similar to Krylov subspace descent (Vinyals ? and Povey, 2012). We optimize that function in a lower-dimensional Krylov subspace f(?)=f(?+?V). The k Krylov subspace vectors V are found through Lanczos iteration of the Hessian. These vectors will span the k biggest eigenvectors of the Hessian with high-probability. This reparametrization through ? greatly reduces the dimensionality and allows us to use exact saddle-free Newton in the subspace.1 See Alg. 1 for the pseudocode. 1 In the Krylov subspace, ? ?f ?? =V  ?f > ?? and ? ?2 f ??2  2  =V ???f2 V> . 6 Deep Autoencoder (a) Recurrent Neural Network (c) (b) (d) Figure 4: Empirical results on training deep autoencoders on MNIST and recurrent neural network on Penn Treebank. (a) and (c): The learning curve for SGD and SGD followed by saddle-free Newton method. (b) The evolution of the magnitude of the most negative eigenvalue and the norm of the gradients w.r.t. the number of epochs (deep autoencoder). (d) The distribution of eigenvalues of the RNN solutions found by SGD and the SGD continued with saddle-free Newton method. 7 Experimental validation of the saddle-free Newton method In this section, we empirically evaluate the theory suggesting the existence of many saddle points in high-dimensional functions by training neural networks. 7.1 Existence of Saddle Points in Neural Networks In this section, we validate the existence of saddle points in the cost function of neural networks, and see how each of the algorithms we described earlier behaves near them. In order to minimize the effect of any type of approximation used in the algorithms, we train small neural networks on the scaled-down version of MNIST and CIFAR-10, where we can compute the update directions by each algorithm exactly. Both MNIST and CIFAR-10 were downsampled to be of size 10?10. We compare minibatch stochastic gradient descent (MSGD), damped Newton and the proposed saddle-free Newton method (SFN). The hyperparameters of SGD were selected via random search (Bergstra and Bengio, 2012), and the damping coefficients for the damped Newton and saddle-free Newton2 methods were selected from a small set at each update. The theory suggests that the number of saddle points increases exponentially as the dimensionality of the function increases. From this, we expect that it becomes more likely for the conventional algorithms such as SGD and Newton methods to stop near saddle points, resulting in worse performance (on training samples). Figs. 3 (a) and (d) clearly confirm this. With the smallest network, all the algorithms perform comparably, but as the size grows, the saddle-free Newton algorithm outperforms the others by a large margin. A closer look into the different behavior of each algorithm is presented in Figs. 3 (b) and (e) which show the evolution of training error over optimization. We can see that the proposed saddle-free Newton escapes, or does not get stuck at all, near a saddle point where both SGD and Newton methods appear trapped. Especially, at the 10-th epoch in the case of MNIST, we can observe the saddle-free Newton method rapidly escaping from the saddle point. Furthermore, Figs. 3 (c) and (f) provide evidence that the distribution of eigenvalues shifts more toward the right as error decreases for all algorithms, consistent with the theory of random error functions. The distribution shifts more for SFN, suggesting it can successfully avoid saddle-points on intermediary error (and large index). 7.2 Effectiveness of saddle-free Newton Method in Deep Feedforward Neural Networks Here, we further show the effectiveness of the proposed saddle-free Newton method in a larger neural network having seven hidden layers. The neural network is a deep autoencoder trained on (full-scale) MNIST and considered a standard benchmark problem for assessing the performance of optimization algorithms on neural networks (Sutskever et al., 2013). In this large-scale problem, we used the Krylov subspace descent approach described earlier with 500 subspace vectors. We first trained the model with SGD and observed that learning stalls after achieving the mean-squared error (MSE) of 1.0. We then continued with the saddle-free Newton method which rapidly escaped the (approximate) plateau at which SGD was stuck (See Fig. 4 (a)). Furthermore, even in these large scale 2 Damping is used for numerical stability. 7 experiments, we were able to confirm that the distribution of Hessian eigenvalues shifts right as error decreases, and that the proposed saddle-free Newton algorithm accelerates this shift (See Fig. 4 (b)). The model trained with SGD followed by the saddle-free Newton method was able to get the state-of-the-art MSE of 0.57 compared to the previous best error of 0.69 achieved by the Hessian-Free method (Martens, 2010). Saddle free Newton method does better. 7.3 Recurrent Neural Networks: Hard Optimization Problem Recurrent neural networks are widely known to be more difficult to train than feedforward neural networks (see, e.g., Bengio et al., 1994; Pascanu et al., 2013). In practice they tend to underfit, and in this section, we want to test if the proposed saddle-free Newton method can help avoiding underfitting, assuming that that it is caused by saddle points. We trained a small recurrent neural network having 120 hidden units for the task of character-level language modeling on Penn Treebank corpus. Similarly to the previous experiment, we trained the model with SGD until it was clear that the learning stalled. From there on, training continued with the saddle-free Newton method. In Fig. 4 (c), we see a trend similar to what we observed with the previous experiments using feedforward neural networks. The SGD stops progressing quickly and does not improve performance, suggesting that the algorithm is stuck in a plateau, possibly around a saddle point. As soon as we apply the proposed saddle-free Newton method, we see that the error drops significantly. Furthermore, Fig. 4 (d) clearly shows that the solution found by the saddle-free Newton has fewer negative eigenvalues, consistent with the theory of random Gaussian error functions. In addition to the saddle-free Newton method, we also tried continuing with the truncated Newton method with damping, however, without much success. 8 Conclusion In summary, we have drawn from disparate literatures spanning statistical physics and random matrix theory to neural network theory, to argue that (a) non-convex error surfaces in high dimensional spaces generically suffer from a proliferation of saddle points, and (b) in contrast to conventional wisdom derived from low dimensional intuition, local minima with high error are exponentially rare in high dimensions. Moreover, we have provided the first experimental tests of these theories by performing new measurements of the statistical properties of critical points in neural network error surfaces. These tests were enabled by a novel application of Newton?s method to search for critical points of any index (fraction of negative eigenvalues), and they confirmed the main qualitative prediction of theory that the index of a critical point tightly and positively correlates with its error level. Motivated by this theory, we developed a framework of generalized trust region methods to search for algorithms that can rapidly escape saddle points. This framework allows us to leverage curvature information in a fundamentally different way than classical methods, by defining the shape of the trust region, rather than locally approximating the function to second order. Through further approximations, we derived an exceedingly simple algorithm, the saddle-free Newton method, which rescales gradients by the absolute value of the inverse Hessian. This algorithm had previously remained heuristic and theoretically unjustified, as well as numerically unexplored within the context of deep and recurrent neural networks. Our work shows that near saddle points it can achieve rapid escape by combining the best of gradient descent and Newton methods while avoiding the pitfalls of both. Moreover, through our generalized trust region approach, our work shows that this algorithm is sensible even far from saddle points. Finally, we demonstrate improved optimization on several neural network training problems. For the future, we are mainly interested in two directions. The first direction is to explore methods beyond Kyrylov subspaces, such as one in (Sohl-Dickstein et al., 2014), that allow the saddle-free Newton method to scale to high dimensional problems, where we cannot easily compute the entire Hessian matrix. In the second direction, the theoretical properties of critical points in the problem of training a neural network will be further analyzed. More generally, it is likely that a deeper understanding of the statistical properties of high dimensional error surfaces will guide the design of novel non-convex optimization algorithms that could impact many fields across science and engineering. Acknowledgments We would like to thank the developers of Theano (Bergstra et al., 2010; Bastien et al., 2012). We would also like to thank CIFAR, and Canada Research Chairs for funding, and Compute Canada, and Calcul Qu?ebec for providing computational resources. Razvan Pascanu is supported by a DeepMind Google Fellowship. Surya Ganguli thanks the Burroughs Wellcome and Sloan Foundations for support. 8 References Baldi, P. and Hornik, K. (1989). Neural networks and principal component analysis: Learning from examples without local minima. Neural Networks, 2(1), 53?58. 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Learning with Pseudo-Ensembles Ouais Alsharif McGill University Montreal, QC, Canada ouais.alsharif@gmail.com Philip Bachman McGill University Montreal, QC, Canada phil.bachman@gmail.com Doina Precup McGill University Montreal, QC, Canada dprecup@cs.mcgill.ca Abstract We formalize the notion of a pseudo-ensemble, a (possibly infinite) collection of child models spawned from a parent model by perturbing it according to some noise process. E.g., dropout [9] in a deep neural network trains a pseudo-ensemble of child subnetworks generated by randomly masking nodes in the parent network. We examine the relationship of pseudo-ensembles, which involve perturbation in model-space, to standard ensemble methods and existing notions of robustness, which focus on perturbation in observation-space. We present a novel regularizer based on making the behavior of a pseudo-ensemble robust with respect to the noise process generating it. In the fully-supervised setting, our regularizer matches the performance of dropout. But, unlike dropout, our regularizer naturally extends to the semi-supervised setting, where it produces state-of-the-art results. We provide a case study in which we transform the Recursive Neural Tensor Network of [19] into a pseudo-ensemble, which significantly improves its performance on a real-world sentiment analysis benchmark. 1 Introduction Ensembles of models have long been used as a way to obtain robust performance in the presence of noise. Ensembles typically work by training several classifiers on perturbed input distributions, e.g. bagging randomly elides parts of the distribution for each trained model and boosting re-weights the distribution before training and adding each model to the ensemble. In the last few years, dropout methods have achieved great empirical success in training deep models, by leveraging a noise process that perturbs the model structure itself. However, there has not yet been much analysis relating this approach to classic ensemble methods or other approaches to learning robust models. In this paper, we formalize the notion of a pseudo-ensemble, which is a collection of child models spawned from a parent model by perturbing it with some noise process. Sec. 2 defines pseudoensembles, after which Sec. 3 discusses the relationships between pseudo-ensembles and standard ensemble methods, as well as existing notions of robustness. Once the pseudo-ensemble framework is defined, it can be leveraged to create new algorithms. In Sec. 4, we develop a novel regularizer that minimizes variation in the output of a model when it is subject to noise on its inputs and its internal state (or structure). We also discuss the relationship of this regularizer to standard dropout methods. In Sec. 5 we show that our regularizer can reproduce the performance of dropout in a fullysupervised setting, while also naturally extending to the semi-supervised setting, where it produces state-of-the-art performance on some real-world datasets. Sec. 6 presents a case study in which we extend the Recursive Neural Tensor Network from [19] by converting it into a pseudo-ensemble. We 1 generate the pseudo-ensemble using a noise process based on Gaussian parameter fuzzing and latent subspace sampling, and empirically show that both types of perturbation contribute to significant performance improvements beyond that of the original model. We conclude in Sec. 7. 2 What is a pseudo-ensemble? Consider a data distribution pxy which we want to approximate using a parametric parent model f? . A pseudo-ensemble is a collection of ?-perturbed child models f? (x; ?), where ? comes from a noise process p? . Dropout [9] provides the clearest existing example of a pseudo-ensemble. Dropout samples subnetworks from a source network by randomly masking the activity of subsets of its input/hidden layer nodes. The parameters shared by the subnetworks, through their common source network, are learned to minimize the expected loss of the individual subnetworks. In pseudoensemble terms, the source network is the parent model, each sampled subnetwork is a child model, and the noise process consists of sampling a node mask and using it to extract a subnetwork. The noise process used to generate a pseudo-ensemble can take fairly arbitrary forms. The only requirement is that sampling a noise realization ?, and then imposing it on the parent model f? , be computationally tractable. This generality allows deriving a variety of pseudo-ensemble methods from existing models. For example, for a Gaussian Mixture Model, one could perturb the means of the mixture components with, e.g., Gaussian noise and their covariances with, e.g., Wishart noise. The goal of learning with pseudo-ensembles is to produce models robust to perturbation. To formalize this, the general pseudo-ensemble objective for supervised learning can be written as follows1 : minimize ? E L(f? (x; ?), y), E (x,y)?pxy ??p? (1) where (x, y) ? pxy is an (observation, label) pair drawn from the data distribution, ? ? p? is a noise realization, f? (x; ?) represents the output of a child model spawned from the parent model f? via ?-perturbation, y is the true label for x, and L(? y , y) is the loss for predicting y? instead of y. The generality of the pseudo-ensemble approach comes from broad freedom in describing the noise process p? and the mechanism by which ? perturbs the parent model f? . Many useful methods could be developed by exploring novel noise processes for generating perturbations beyond the independent masking noise that has been considered for neural networks and the feature noise that has been considered in the context of linear models. For example, [17] develops a method for learning ?ordered representations? by applying dropout/masking noise in a deep autoencoder while enforcing a particular ?nested? structure among the random masking variables in ?, and [2] relies heavily on random perturbations when training Generative Stochastic Networks. 3 Related work Pseudo-ensembles are closely related to traditional ensemble methods as well as to methods for learning models robust to input uncertainty. By optimizing the expected loss of individual ensemble members? outputs, rather than the expected loss of the joint ensemble output, pseudo-ensembles differ from boosting, which iteratively augments an ensemble to minimize the loss of the joint output [8]. Meanwhile, the child models in a pseudo-ensemble share parameters and structure through their parent model, which will tend to correlate their behavior. This distinguishes pseudo-ensembles from traditional ?independent member? ensemble methods, like bagging and random forests, which typically prefer diversity in the behavior of their members, as this provides bias and variance reduction when the outputs of their members are averaged [8]. In fact, the regularizers we introduce in Sec. 4 explicitly minimize diversity in the behavior of their pseudo-ensemble members. The definition and use of pseudo-ensembles are strongly motivated by the intuition that models trained to be robust to noise should generalize better than models that are (overly) sensitive to small perturbations. Previous work on robust learning has overwhelmingly concentrated on perturbations affecting the inputs to a model. For example, the optimization community has produced a large body of theoretical and empirical work addressing ?stochastic programming? [18] and ?robust optimization? [4]. Stochastic programming seeks to produce a solution to a, e.g., linear program that performs 1 It is easy to formulate analogous objectives for unsupervised learning, maximum likelihood, etc. 2 well on average, with respect to a known distribution over perturbations of parameters in the problem definition2 . Robust optimization generally seeks to produce a solution to a, e.g., linear program with optimal worst case performance over a given set of possible perturbations of parameters in the problem definition. Several well-known machine learning methods have been shown equivalent to certain robust optimization problems. For example, [24] shows that using Lasso (i.e. `1 regularization) in a linear regression model is equivalent to a robust optimization problem. [25] shows that learning a standard SVM (i.e. hinge loss with `2 regularization in the corresponding RKHS) is also equivalent to a robust optimization problem. Supporting the notion that noise-robustness improves generalization, [25] prove many of the statistical guarantees that make SVMs so appealing directly from properties of their robust optimization equivalents, rather than using more complicated proofs involving, e.g., VC-dimension. More closely related to pseudo-ensembles are recent works that consider approaches to learning linear models with inputs perturbed by different sorts of noise. [5] shows how to efficiently learn a linear model that (globally) optimizes expected performance w.r.t. certain types of noise (e.g. Gaussian, zero-masking, Poisson) on its inputs, by marginalizing over the noise. Particularly relevant to our work is [21], which studies dropout (applied to linear models) closely, and shows how its effects are well-approximated by a Tikhonov (i.e. quadratic/ridge) Layer i-1 Layer i Layer i+1 regularization term that can be estimated from both labeled and unlabeled data. The authors of [21] leveraged Figure 1: How to compute partial noisy this label-agnosticism to achieve state-of-the-art perforoutput f?i : (1) compute ?-perturbed output mance on several sentiment analysis tasks. i?1 i (1) (2) (3) (4) f?? of layers < i, (2) compute f? from f??i?1 , (3) ?-perturb f?i to get f??i , (4) repeat up through the layers > i. While all the work described above considers noise on the input-space, pseudo-ensembles involve noise in the model-space. This can actually be seen as a superset of input-space noise, as a model can always be extended with an initial ?identity layer? that copies the noise-free input. Noise on the input-space can then be reproduced by noise on the initial layer, which is now part of the model-space. 4 The Pseudo-Ensemble Agreement regularizer We now present Pseudo-Ensemble Agreement (PEA) regularization, which can be used in a fairly general class of computation graphs. For concreteness, we present it in the case of deep, layered neural networks. PEA regularization operates by controlling distributional properties of the random vectors {f?2 (x; ?), ..., f?d (x; ?)}, where f?i (x; ?) gives the activities of the ith layer of f? in response to x when layers < i are perturbed by ? while layer i is left unperturbed. Fig. 1 illustrates the construction of these random vectors. We will assume that layer d is the output layer, i.e.f?d (x) gives the output of the unperturbed parent model in response to x and f?d (x; ?) = f? (x; ?) gives the response of the child model generated by ?-perturbing f? . Given the random vectors f?i (x; ?), PEA regularization is defined as follows: " d # X i i R(f? , px , p? ) = E E ?i Vi (f? (x), f? (x; ?)) , x?px ??p? (2) i=2 where f? is the parent model to regularize, x ? px is an unlabeled observation, Vi (?, ?) is the ?variance? penalty imposed on the distribution of activities in the ith layer of the pseudo-ensemble spawned from f? , and ?i controls the relative importance of Vi . Note that for Eq. 2 to act on the ?variance? of the f?i (x; ?), we should have f?i (x) ? E? f?i (x; ?). This approximation holds reasonably well for many useful neural network architectures [1, 22]. In our experiments we actually compute the penalties Vi between independently-sampled pairs of child models. We consider several different measures of variance to penalize, which we will introduce as needed. 2 Note that ?parameters? in a linear program are analogous to inputs in standard machine learning terminology, as they are observed quantities (rather than quantities optimized over). 3 4.1 The effect of PEA regularization on feature co-adaptation One of the original motivations for dropout was that it helps prevent ?feature co-adaptation? [9]. That is, dropout encourages individual features (i.e. hidden node activities) to remain helpful, or at least not become harmful, when other features are removed from their local context. We provide some support for that claim by examining the following optimization objective 3 : " d # X minimize E [L(f? (x), y)] + E E ?i Vi (f?i (x), f?i (x; ?)) , (3) ? x?px ??p? (x,y)?pxy i=2 in which the supervised loss L depends only on the parent model f? and the pseudo-ensemble only appears in the PEA regularization term. For simplicity, let ?i = 0 for i < d, ?d = 1, and Vd (v1 , v2 ) = DKL (softmax(v1 )|| softmax(v2 )), where softmax is the standard softmax and DKL (p1 ||p2 ) is the KL-divergence between p1 and p2 (we indicate this penalty by V k ). We use xent(softmax(f? (x)), y) for the loss L(f? (x), y), where xent(? y , y) is the cross-entropy between the predicted distribution y? and the true distribution y. Eq. 3 never explicitly passes label information through a ?-perturbed network, so ? only acts through its effects on the distribution of the parent model?s predictions when subjected to ?-perturbation. In this case, (3) trades off accuracy against feature co-adaptation, as measured by the degree to which the feature activity distribution at layer i is affected by perturbation of the feature activity distributions for layers < i. We test this regularizer empirically in Sec. 5.1. The observed ability of this regularizer to reproduce the performance benefits of standard dropout supports the notion that discouraging ?co-adaptation? plays an important role in dropout?s empirical success. Also, by acting strictly to make the output of the parent model more robust to ?-perturbation, the performance of this regularizer rebuts the claim in [22] that noise-robustness plays only a minor role in the success of standard dropout. 4.2 Relating PEA regularization to standard dropout The authors of [21] show that, assuming a noise process ? such that E? [f (x; ?)] = f (x), logistic regression under the influence of dropout optimizes the following objective: n n X X E [`(f? (xi ; ?), yi )] = `(f? (xi ), yi )) + R(f? ), (4) i=1 ? i=1 where f? (xi ) = ?xi , `(f? (xi ), yi ) is the logistic regression loss, and the regularization term is: n X E [A(f? (xi ; ?)) ? A(f? (xi ))] , (5) R(f? ) ? i=1 ? where A(?) indicates the log partition function for logistic regression. Using only a KL-d penalty at the output layer, PEA-regularized logistic regression minimizes: n X `(f? (xi ), yi ) + E [DKL (softmax(f? (xi )) || softmax(f? (xi ; ?)))] . (6) ? i=1 Defining distribution p? (x) as softmax(f? (x)), we can re-write the PEA part of Eq. 6 to get: " # X pc? (x) c E [DKL (p? (x) || p? (x; ?))] = E p? (x) log c ? ? p? (x; ?) c?C # " P 0 c c X (x; ?) exp f (x) exp f 0 ? ? c ?C P = E pc? (x) log c (x; ?) c0 ? exp f 0 ?C exp f? (x) c ? c?C X = E [pc? (x)(f?c (x) ? f?c (x; ?)) + pc? (x)(A(f? (x; ?)) ? A(f? (x)))] c?C ? " = E ? (7) (8) (9) # X pc? (x)(A(f? (x; ?)) ? A(f? (x))) = E [A(f? (x; ?)) ? A(f? (x))] ? c?C (10) which brings us to the regularizer in Eq. 5. 3 While dropout is well-supported empirically, its mode-of-action is not well-understood outside the limited context of linear models. 4 4.3 PEA regularization for semi-supervised learning PEA regularization works as-is in a semi-supervised setting, as the penalties Vi do not require label information. We train networks for semi-supervised learning in two ways, both of which apply the objective in Eq. 1 on labeled examples and PEA regularization on the unlabeled examples. The first way applies a tanh-variance penalty V t and the second way applies a xent-variance penalty V x , which we define as follows: V t (? y , y?) = || tanh(? y ) ? tanh(? y )||22 , V x (? y , y?) = xent(softmax(? y ), softmax(? y )), (11) where y? and y? represent the outputs of a pair of independently sampled child models, and tanh operates element-wise. The xent-variance penalty can be further expanded as: V x (? y , y?) = DKL (softmax(? y )|| softmax(? y )) + ent(softmax(? y )), (12) where ent(?) denotes the entropy. Thus, V x combines the KL-divergence penalty with an entropy penalty, which has been shown to perform well in a semi-supervised setting [7, 14]. Recall that at non-output layers we regularize with the ?direction? penalty V c . Before the masking noise, we also apply zero-mean Gaussian noise to the input and to the biases of all nodes. In the experiments, we chose between the two output-layer penalties V t /V x based on observed performance. 5 Testing PEA regularization We tested PEA regularization in three scenarios: supervised learning on MNIST digits, semi-supervised learning on MNIST digits, and semi-supervised transfer learning on a dataset from the NIPS 2011 Workshop on Challenges in Learning Hierarchical Models [13]. Full implementations of our methods, written with THEANO [3], and scripts/instructions for reproducing all of the results in this section are available online at: http://github.com/Philip-Bachman/Pseudo-Ensembles. 5.1 Fully-supervised MNIST The MNIST dataset comprises 60k 28x28 grayscale hand-written digit images for training and 10k images for testing. For the supervised tests we used SGD hyperparameters roughly following those in [9]. We trained networks with two hidden layers of 800 nodes each, using rectified-linear activations and an `2 -norm constraint of 3.5 on incoming weights for each node. For both standard dropout (SDE) and PEA, we used softmax ? xent loss at the output layer. We initialized hidden layer biases to 0.1, output layer biases to 0, and inter-layer weights to zero-mean Gaussian noise with ? = 0.01. We trained all networks for 1000 epochs with no early-stopping (i.e. performance was measured for the final network state). SDE obtained 1.05% error averaged over five random initializations. Using PEA penalty V k at the output layer and computing classification loss/gradient only for the unperturbed parent network, we obtained 1.08% averaged error. The ?-perturbation involved node masking but not bias noise. Thus, training the same network as used for dropout while ignoring the effects of masking noise on the classification loss, but encouraging the network to be robust to masking noise (as measured by V k ), matched the performance of dropout. This result supports the equivalence between dropout and this particular form of PEA regularization, which we derived in Section 4.2. 5.2 Semi-supervised MNIST We tested semi-supervised learning on MNIST following the protocol described in [23]. These tests split MNIST?s 60k training samples into labeled/unlabeled subsets, with the labeled sets containing nl ? {100, 600, 1000, 3000} samples. For labeled sets of size 600, 1000, and 3000, the full training data was randomly split 10 times into labeled/unlabeled sets and results were averaged over the splits. For labeled sets of size 100, we averaged over 50 random splits. The labeled sets had the same number of examples for each class. We tested PEA regularization with and without denoising autoencoder pre-training [20]4 . Pre-trained networks were always PEA-regularized with penalty V x 4 See our code for a perfectly complete description of our pre-training. 5 RAW: 600 SDE: 600 PEA: 600 PEA+PT: 600 PEA: 100 (a) (b) Figure 2: Performance of PEA regularization for semi-supervised learning using the MNIST dataset. The top row of filter blocks in (a) were the result of training a fixed network architecture on 600 labeled samples using: weight norm constraints only (RAW), standard dropout (SDE), standard dropout with PEA regularization on unlabeled data (PEA), and PEA preceded by pre-training as a denoising autoencoder [20] (PEA+PT). The bottom filter block in (a) was the result of training with PEA on 100 labeled samples. (b) shows test error over the course of training for RAW/SDE/PEA, averaged over 10 random training sets of size 600/1000. on the output layer and V c on the hidden layers. Non-pre-trained networks used V t on the output layer, except when the labeled set was of size 100, for which V x was used. In the latter case, we gradually increased the ?i over the course of training, as suggested by [7]. We generated the pseudoensembles for these tests using masking noise and Gaussian input+bias noise with ? = 0.1. Each network had two hidden layers with 800 nodes. Weight norm constraints and SGD hyperparameters were set as for supervised learning. Table 1 compares the performance of PEA regularization with previous results. Aside from CNN, all methods in the table are ?general?, i.e. do not use convolutions or other image-specific techniques to improve performance. The main comparisons of interest are between PEA(+) and other methods for semi-supervised learning with neural networks, i.e. E-NN, MTC+, and PL+. E-NN (EmbedNN from [23]) uses a nearest-neighbors-based graph Laplacian regularizer to make predictions ?smooth? with respect to the manifold underlying the data distribution px . MTC+ (the Manifold Tangent Classifier from [16]) regularizes predictions to be smooth with respect to the data manifold by penalizing gradients in a learned approximation of the tangent space of the data manifold. PL+ (the PseudoLabel method from [14]) uses the joint-ensemble predictions on unlabeled data as ?pseudo-labels?, and treats them like ?true? labels. The classification losses on true labels and pseudo-labels are balanced by a scaling factor which is carefully modulated over the course of training. PEA regularization (without pre-training) outperforms all previous methods in every setting except 100 labeled samples, where PL+ performs better, but with the benefit of pre-training. By adding pretraining (i.e. PEA+), we achieve a two-fold reduction in error when using only 100 labeled samples. 100 600 1000 3000 TSVM 16.81 6.16 5.38 3.45 NN 25.81 11.44 10.70 6.04 CNN 22.98 7.68 6.45 3.35 E-NN 16.86 5.97 5.73 3.59 MTC+ 12.03 5.13 3.64 2.57 PL+ 10.49 4.01 3.46 2.69 SDE 22.89 7.59 5.80 3.60 SDE+ 13.54 5.68 4.71 3.00 PEA 10.79 2.44 2.23 1.91 PEA+ 5.21 2.87 2.64 2.30 Table 1: Performance of semi-supervised learning methods on MNIST with varying numbers of labeled samples. From left-to-right the methods are Transductive SVM , neural net, convolutional neural net, EmbedNN [23], Manifold Tangent Classifier [16], Pseudo-Label [14], standard dropout plus fuzzing [9], dropout plus fuzzing with pre-training, PEA, and PEA with pre-training. Methods with a ?+? used contractive or denoising autoencoder pre-training [20]. The testing protocol and the results left of MTC+ were presented in [23]. The MTC+ and PL+ results are from their respective papers and the remaining results are our own. We trained SDE(+) using the same network/SGD hyperparameters as for PEA. The only difference was that the former did not regularize for pseudo-ensemble agreement on the unlabeled examples. We measured performance on the standard 10k test samples for MNIST, and all of the 60k training samples not included in a given labeled training set were made available without labels. The best result for each training size is in bold. 5.3 Transfer learning challenge (NIPS 2011) The organizers of the NIPS 2011 Workshop on Challenges in Learning Hierarchical Models [13] proposed a challenge to improve performance on a target domain by using labeled and unlabeled 6 data from two related source domains. The labeled data source was CIFAR-100 [11], which contains 50k 32x32 color images in 100 classes. The unlabeled data source was a collection of 100k 32x32 color images taken from Tiny Images [11]. The target domain comprised 120 32x32 color images divided unevenly among 10 classes. Neither the classes nor the images in the target domain appeared in either of the source domains. The winner of this challenge used convolutional Spike and Slab Sparse Coding, followed by max pooling and a linear SVM on the pooled features [6]. Labels on the source data were ignored and the source data was used to pre-train a large set of convolutional features. After applying the pre-trained feature extractor to the 120 training images, this method achieved an accuracy of 48.6% on the target domain, the best published result on this dataset. We applied semi-supervised PEA regularization by first using the CIFAR-100 data to train a deep network comprising three max-pooled convolutional layers followed by a fully-connected hidden layer which fed into a softmax ? xent output layer. Afterwards, we removed the hidden and output layers, replaced them with a pair of fully-connected hidden layers feeding into an `2 -hinge-loss output layer5 , and then trained the non-convolutional part of the network on the 120 training images from the target domain. For this final training phase, which involved three layers, we tried standard dropout and dropout with PEA regularization on the source data. Standard dropout achieved 55.5% accuracy, which improved to 57.4% when we added PEA regularization on the source data. While most of the improvement over the previous state-of-the-art (i.e. 48.6%) was due to dropout and an improved training strategy (i.e. supervised pre-training vs. unsupervised pre-training), controlling the feature activity and output distributions of the pseudo-ensemble on unlabeled data allowed significant further improvement. 6 Improved sentiment analysis using pseudo-ensembles We now show how the Recursive Neural Tensor Network (RNTN) from [19] can be adapted using pseudo-ensembles, and evaluate it on the Stanford Sentiment Treebank (STB) task. The STB task involves predicting the sentiment of short phrases extracted from movie reviews on RottenTomatoes.com. Ground-truth labels for the phrases, and the ?sub-phrases? produced by processing them with a standard parser, were generated using Amazon Mechanical Turk. In addition to pseudoensembles, we used a more ?compact? bilinear form in the function f : Rn ? Rn ? Rn that the RNTN applies recursively as shown in Figure 3. The computation for the ith dimension of the original f (for vi ? Rn?1 ) is: fi (v1 , v2 ) = tanh([v1 ; v2 ]> Ti [v1 ; v2 ] + Mi [v1 ; v2 ; 1]), whereas we use: fi (v1 , v2 ) = tanh(v1> Ti v2 + Mi [v1 ; v2 ; 1]), in which Ti indicates a matrix slice of tensor T and Mi indicates a vector row of matrix M . In the original RNTN, T is 2n ? 2n ? n and in ours it is n ? n ? n. The other parameters in the RNTNs are a transform matrix M ? Rn?2n+1 and a classification matrix C ? Rc?n+1 ; each RNTN outputs c class probabilities for vector v using softmax(C[v; 1]). A ?;? indicates vertical vector stacking. We initialized the model with pre-trained word vectors. The pre-training used word2vec on the training and dev set, with three modifications: dropout/fuzzing was applied during pre-training (to match the conditions in the full model), the vector norms were constrained so the pre-trained vectors had standard deviation 0.5, and tanh was applied during word2vec (again, to match conditions in the full model). All code required for these experiments is publicly available online. We generated pseudo-ensembles from a parent RNTN using two types of perturbation: subspace sampling and weight fuzzing. We performed subspace sampling by keeping only n2 randomly sampled latent dimensions out of the n in the parent model when processing a given phrase tree. Using the same sampled dimensions for a full phrase tree reduced computation time significantly, as the parameter matrices/tensor could be ?sliced? to include only the relevant dimensions6 . During 5 We found that `2 -hinge-loss performed better than softmax ? xent in this setting. Switching to softmax ? xent degrades the dropout and PEA results but does not change their ranking. 6 This allowed us to train significantly larger models before over-fitting offset increased model capacity. But, training these larger models would have been tedious without the parameter slicing permitted by subspace sampling, as feedforward for the RNTN is O(n3 ). 7 training we sampled a new subspace each time a phrase tree was processed and computed testtime outputs for each phrase tree by averaging over 50 randomly sampled subspaces. We performed weight fuzzing during training by perturbing parameters with zero-mean Gaussian noise before processing each phrase tree and then applying gradients w.r.t. the perturbed parameters to the unperturbed parameters. We did not fuzz during testing. Weight fuzzing has an interesting interpretation as an implicit convolution of the objective function (defined w.r.t. the model parameters) with an isotropic Gaussian distribution. In the case of recursive/recurrent neural networks this may prove quite useful, as convolving the objective with a Gaussian reduces its curvature, thereby mitigating some problems stemming from ill-conditioned Hessians [15]. For further description of the model and training/testing process, see the supplementary material and the code from http://github.com/Philip-Bachman/Pseudo-Ensembles. Fine-grained Binary RNTN 45.7 85.4 PV 48.7 87.8 DCNN 48.5 86.8 CTN 43.1 83.4 CTN+F 46.1 85.3 CTN+S 47.5 87.8 CTN+F+S 48.4 88.9 Table 2: Fine-grained and binary root-level prediction performance for the Stanford Sentiment Treebank task. RNTN is the original ?full? model presented in [19]. CTN is our ?compact? tensor network model. +F/S indicates augmenting our base model with weight fuzzing/subspace sampling. PV is the Paragraph Vector model in [12] and DCNN is the Dynamic Convolutional Neural Network model in [10]. r1 = f(w1, p1) r1 w1 p1 w2 p1 = f(w2, w3) w3 table look-up perhaps the best Figure 3: How to feedforward through the Recursive Neural Tensor Network. First, the tree structure is generated by parsing the input sentence. Then, the vector for each node is computed by look-up at the leaves (i.e. words/tokens) and by a tensor-based transform of the node?s children?s vectors otherwise. 7 Following the protocol suggested by [19], we measured root-level (i.e. whole-phrase) prediction accuracy on two tasks: fine-grained sentiment prediction and binary sentiment prediction. The fine-grained task involves predicting classes from 1-5, with 1 indicating strongly negative sentiment and 5 indicating strongly positive sentiment. The binary task is similar, but ignores ?neutral? phrases (those in class 3) and considers only whether a phrase is generally negative (classes 1/2) or positive (classes 4/5). Table 2 shows the performance of our compact RNTN in four forms that include none, one, or both of subspace sampling and weight fuzzing. Using only `2 regularization on its parameters, our compact RNTN approached the performance of the full RNTN, roughly matching the performance of the second best method tested in [19]. Adding weight fuzzing improved performance past that of the full RNTN. Adding subspace sampling improved performance further and adding both noise types pushed our RNTN well past the full RNTN, resulting in state-ofthe-art performance on the binary task. Discussion We proposed the notion of a pseudo-ensemble, which captures methods such as dropout [9] and feature noising in linear models [5, 21] that have recently drawn significant attention. Using the conceptual framework provided by pseudo-ensembles, we developed and applied a regularizer that performs well empirically and provides insight into the mechanisms behind dropout?s success. We also showed how pseudo-ensembles can be used to improve the performance of an already powerful model on a competitive real-world sentiment analysis benchmark. We anticipate that this idea, which unifies several rapidly evolving lines of research, can be used to develop several other novel and successful algorithms, especially for semi-supervised learning. References [1] P. Baldi and P. Sadowski. Understanding dropout. In NIPS, 2013. ? Thibodeau-Laufer, G. Alain, and J. Yosinski. Deep generative stochastic net[2] Y. Bengio, E. works trainable by backprop. arXiv:1306.1091v5 [cs.LG], 2014. 8 [3] J. Bergstra, O. Breuleux, F. Bastien, P. Lamblin, R. Pascanu, G. Desjardins, J. Turian, D. Warde-Farley, and Y. Bengio. Theano: A cpu and gpu math expression compiler. In Python for Scientific Computing Conference (SciPy), 2010. [4] D. Bertsimas, D. B. Brown, and C. Caramanis. Theory and applications of robust optimization. SIAM Review, 53(3), 2011. [5] L. Van der Maaten, M. Chen, S. Tyree, and K. Q. Weinberger. Learning with marginalized corrupted features. In ICML, 2013. [6] I. J. Goodfellow, A. Courville, and Y. Bengio. Large-scale feature learning with spike-and-slab sparse coding. In ICML, 2012. [7] Y. Grandvalet and Y. Bengio. Semi-Supervised Learning, chapter Entropy Regularization. MIT Press, 2006. [8] T. Hastie, J. Friedman, and R. Tibshirani. Elements of Statistical Learning II. 2008. [9] G.E. Hinton, N. Srivastava, A. Krizhevsky, I. Sutskever, and R.R. Salakhutdinov. Improving neural networks by preventing co-adaptation of feature detectors. arXiv:1207.0580v1 [cs.NE], 2012. [10] N. Kalchbrenner, E. Grefenstette, and P. Blunsom. A convolutional neural network for modelling sentences. In ACL, 2014. [11] A. Krizhevsky. Learning multiple layers of features from tiny images. Master?s thesis, University of Toronto, 2009. [12] Q. V. Le and T. Mikolov. Distributed representations of sentences and documents. In ICML, 2014. [13] Q. V. Le, M. A. Ranzato, R. R. Salakhutdinov, A. Y. Ng, and J. Tenenbaum. Workshop on challenges in learning hierarchical models: Transfer learning and optimization. In NIPS, 2011. [14] D.-H. Lee. Pseudo-label: The simple and efficient semi-supervised learning method for deep neural networks. In ICML, 2013. [15] R. Pacanu, T. Mikolov, and Y. Bengio. On the difficulties of training recurrent neural networks. In ICML, 2013. [16] S. Rifai, Y. Dauphin, P. Vincent, Y. Bengio, and X. Muller. The manifold tangent classifier. In NIPS, 2011. [17] O. Rippel, M. A. Gelbart, and R. P. Adams. Learning ordered representations with nested dropout. In ICML, 2014. [18] A. Shapiro, D. Dentcheva, and A. Ruszczynski. Lectures on Stochastic Programming: Modeling and Theory. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM), 2009. [19] R. Socher, A. Perelygin, J. Y. Wu, J. Chuang, C. D. Manning, A. Y. Ng, and C. Potts. Recursive deep models for semantic compositionality over a sentiment treebank. In EMNLP, 2013. [20] P. Vincent, H. Larochelle, and Y. Bengio. Extracting and composing robust features with denoising autoencoders. In ICML, 2008. [21] S. Wager, S. Wang, and P. Liang. Dropout training as adaptive regularization. In NIPS, 2013. [22] D. Warde-Farley, I. J. Goodfellow, A. Courville, and Y. Bengio. An empirical analysis of dropout in piecewise linear networks. In ICLR, 2014. [23] J. Weston, F. Ratle, and R. Collobert. Deep learning via semi-supervised embedding. In ICML, 2008. [24] H. Xu, C. Caramanis, and S. Mannor. Robust regression and lasso. In NIPS, 2009. [25] H. Xu, C. Caramanis, and S. Mannor. Robustness and regularization of support vector machines. JMLR, 10, 2009. 9
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On the Information Theoretic Limits of Learning Ising Models Karthikeyan Shanmugam1? , Rashish Tandon2? , Alexandros G. Dimakis1? , Pradeep Ravikumar2? 1 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, 2 Department of Computer Science The University of Texas at Austin, USA ? karthiksh@utexas.edu, ? rashish@cs.utexas.edu ? dimakis@austin.utexas.edu, ? pradeepr@cs.utexas.edu Abstract We provide a general framework for computing lower-bounds on the sample complexity of recovering the underlying graphs of Ising models, given i.i.d. samples. While there have been recent results for specific graph classes, these involve fairly extensive technical arguments that are specialized to each specific graph class. In contrast, we isolate two key graph-structural ingredients that can then be used to specify sample complexity lower-bounds. Presence of these structural properties makes the graph class hard to learn. We derive corollaries of our main result that not only recover existing recent results, but also provide lower bounds for novel graph classes not considered previously. We also extend our framework to the random graph setting and derive corollaries for Erd?os-R?nyi graphs in a certain dense setting. 1 Introduction Graphical models provide compact representations of multivariate distributions using graphs that represent Markov conditional independencies in the distribution. They are thus widely used in a number of machine learning domains where there are a large number of random variables, including natural language processing [13], image processing [6, 10, 19], statistical physics [11], and spatial statistics [15]. In many of these domains, a key problem of interest is to recover the underlying dependencies, represented by the graph, given samples i.e. to estimate the graph of dependencies given instances drawn from the distribution. A common regime where this graph selection problem is of interest is the high-dimensional setting, where the number of samples n is potentially smaller than the number of variables p. Given the importance of this problem, it is instructive to have lower bounds on the sample complexity of any estimator: it clarifies the statistical difficulty of the underlying problem, and moreover it could serve as a certificate of optimality in terms of sample complexity for any estimator that actually achieves this lower bound. We are particularly interested in such lower bounds under the structural constraint that the graph lies within a given class of graphs (such as degree-bounded graphs, bounded-girth graphs, and so on). The simplest approach to obtaining such bounds involves graph counting arguments, and an application of Fano?s lemma. [2, 17] for instance derive such bounds for the case of degree-bounded and power-law graph classes respectively. This approach however is purely graph-theoretic, and thus fails to capture the interaction of the graphical model parameters with the graph structural constraints, and thus typically provides suboptimal lower bounds (as also observed in [16]). The other standard approach requires a more complicated argument through Fano?s lemma that requires finding a subset of graphs such that (a) the subset is large enough in number, and (b) the graphs in the subset are close enough in a suitable metric, typically the KL-divergence of the corresponding distributions. This approach is however much more technically intensive, and even for the simple 1 classes of bounded degree and bounded edge graphs for Ising models, [16] required fairly extensive arguments in using the above approach to provide lower bounds. In modern high-dimensional settings, it is becoming increasingly important to incorporate structural constraints in statistical estimation, and graph classes are a key interpretable structural constraint. But a new graph class would entail an entirely new (and technically intensive) derivation of the corresponding sample complexity lower bounds. In this paper, we are thus interested in isolating the key ingredients required in computing such lower bounds. This key ingredient involves one the following structural characterizations: (1) connectivity by short paths between pairs of nodes, or (2) existence of many graphs that only differ by an edge. As corollaries of this framework, we not only recover the results in [16] for the simple cases of degree and edge bounded graphs, but to several more classes of graphs, for which achievability results have already been proposed[1]. Moreover, using structural arguments allows us to bring out the dependence of the edge-weights, ?, on the sample complexity. We are able to show same sample complexity requirements for d-regular graphs, as is for degree d-bounded graphs, whilst the former class is much smaller. We also extend our framework to the random graph setting, and as a corollary, establish lower bound requirements for the class of Erd?os-R?nyi graphs in a dense setting. Here, we show that under a certain scaling of the edge-weights ?, Gp,c/p requires exponentially many samples, as opposed to a polynomial requirement suggested from earlier bounds[1]. 2 Preliminaries and Definitions Notation: R represents the real line. [p] denotes the set of integers from 1 to p. Let 1S denote T the vector of ones and zeros where S is the set of coordinates containing 1. Let A ? B denote A B c and A?B denote the symmetric difference for two sets A and B. In this work, we consider the problem of learning the graph structure of an Ising model. Ising models are a class of graphical model distributions over binary vectors, characterized by the pair ? where G(V, E) is an undirected graph on p vertices and ?? ? R(p2) : ??i,j = 0 ?(i, j) ? (G(V, E), ?), / ? the distribution on X p is E, ??i,j 6= 0 ? (i, j) ? E. Let X = {+1,! ?1}. Then, for the pair (G, ?), P? given as: fG,??(x) = Z1 exp ?i,j xi xj where x ? X p and Z is the normalization factor, also i,j known as the partition function. Thus, we obtain a family of distributions by considering a set of edge-weighted graphs G? , where ? In other words, every member of the class G? is a weighted each element of G? is a pair (G, ?). undirected graph. Let G denote the set of distinct unweighted graphs in the class G? . ? from n independent samples A learning algorithm that learns the graph G (and not the weights ?) (each sample is a p-dimensional binary vector) drawn from the distribution fG,??(?), is an efficiently computable map ? : ?np ? G which maps the input samples {x1 , . . . xn } to an undirected graph ? ? G i.e. G ? = ?(x1 , . . . , xn ). G ? We now discuss two metrics of reliability for such an estimator  ?. Fora given (G, ?), the probability ? = Pr G ? 6= G . Given a graph class G? , one of error (over the samples drawn) is given by p(G, ?) may consider the maximum probability of error for the map ?, given as:   ? 6= G . pmax = max Pr G (1) (G,?)?G? The goal of any estimator ? would be to achieve as low a pmax as possible. Alternatively, there are random graph classes that come naturally endowed with a probability measure ?(G, ?) of choosing the graphical model. In this case, the quantity we would want to minimize would be the average probability of error of the map ?, given as: h  i ? 6= G pavg = E? Pr G (2) In this work, we are interested in answering the following question: For any estimator ?, what is the minimum number of samples n, needed to guarantee an asymptotically small pmax or pavg ? The answer depends on G? and ?(when applicable). 2 For the sake of simplicity, we impose the following restrictions1 : We restrict to the set of zero-field ferromagnetic Ising models, where zero-field refers to a lack of node weights, and ferromagnetic refers to all positive edge weights. Further, we will restrict all the non-zero edge weights (??i,j ) in the graph classes to be the same, set equal to ? > 0. Therefore, for a given G(V, E), we have ?? = ?1E for some ? > 0. A deterministic graph class is described by a scalar ? > 0 and the family of graphs G. In the case of a random graph class, we describe it by a scalar ? > 0 and a probability measure ?, the measure being solely on the structure of the graph G (on G). Since we have the same weight ?(> 0) on all edges, henceforth we will skip the reference to it, i.e. the graph class will simply be denoted G and for a given G ? G, the distribution will be denoted by fG (?), with the dependence on ? being implicit. Before proceeding further, we summarize the following additional notation. For any two distributions fG and fG0 , corresponding to the graphs G and G0 respectively, we denote the Kullback-Liebler divergence (KL-divergence) between them  P fG (x) as D (fG kfG0 ) = x?X p fG (x) log f 0 (x) . For any subset T ? G, we let CT () denote an G -covering w.r.t. the KL-divergence (of the corresponding distributions) i.e. CT ()(? G) is a set of graphs such that for any G ? T , there exists a G0 ? CT () satisfying D (fG kfG0 ) ? . We denote the entropy of any r.v. X by H(X), and the mutual information between any two r.v.s X and Y , by I(X; Y ). The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 3 describes Fano?s lemma, a basic tool employed in computing information-theoretic lower bounds. Section 4 identifies key structural properties that lead to large sample requirements. Section 5 applies the results of Sections 3 and 4 on a number of different deterministic graph classes to obtain lower bound estimates. Section 6 obtains lower bound estimates for Erd?os-R?nyi random graphs in a dense regime. All proofs can be found in the Appendix (see supplementary material). 3 Fano?s Lemma and Variants Fano?s lemma [5] is a primary tool for obtaining bounds on the average probability of error, pavg . It provides a lower bound on the probability of error of any estimator ? in terms of the entropy H(?) of the output space, the cardinality of the output space, and the mutual information I(? , ?) between the input and the output. The case of pmax is interesting only when we have a deterministic graph class G, and can be handled through Fano?s lemma again by considering a uniform distribution on the graph class. Lemma 1 (Fano?s Lemma). Consider a graph class G with measure ?. Let, G ? ?, and let X n = {x1 , . . . , xn } be n independent samples such that xi ? fG , i ? [n]. Then, for pmax and pavg as defined in (1) and (2) respectively, pmax ? pavg ? H(G) ? I(G; X n ) ? log 2 log|G| (3) Thus in order to use this Lemma, we need to bound two quantities: the entropy H(G), and the mutual information I(G; X n ). The entropy can typically be obtained or bounded very simply; for instance, with a uniform distribution over the set of graphs G, H(G) = log |G|. The mutual information is a much trickier object to bound however, and is where the technical complexity largely arises. We can however simply obtain the following loose bound: I(G; X n ) ? H(X n ) ? np. We thus arrive at the following corollary: 2 Corollary 1. Consider a graph class G. Then, pmax ? 1 ? np+log log|G| .   log 2 Remark 1. From Corollary 1, we get: If n ? log|G| (1 ? ?) ? p log|G| , then pmax ? ?. Note that this bound on n is only in terms of the cardinality of the graph class G, and therefore, would not involve any dependence on ? (and consequently, be very loose). To obtain sharper lower bound guarantees that depends on graphical model parameters, it is useful to consider instead a conditional form of Fano?s lemma[1, Lemma 9], which allows us to obtain lower bounds on pavg in terms conditional analogs of the quantities in Lemma 1. For the case of pmax , these conditional analogs correspond to uniform measures on subsets of the original class G. 1 Note that a lower bound for a restricted subset of a class of Ising models will also serve as a lower bound for the class without that restriction. 3 The conditional version allows us to focus on potentially harder to learn subsets of the graph class, leading to sharper lower bound guarantees. Also, for a random graph class, the entropy H(G) may be asymptotically much smaller than the log cardinality of the graph class, log|G| (e.g. Erd?os-R?nyi random graphs; see Section 6), rendering the bound in Lemma 1 useless. The conditional version allows us to circumvent this issue by focusing on a high-probability subset of the graph class. Lemma 2 (Conditional Fano?s Lemma). Consider a graph class G with measure ?. Let, G ? ?, and let X n = {x1 , . . . , xn } be n independent samples such that xi ? fG , i ? [n]. Consider any T ? G and let ? (T ) be the measure of this subset i.e. ? (T ) = Pr? (G ? T ). Then, we have H(G|G ? T ) ? I(G; X n |G ? T ) ? log 2 log|T | H(G|G ? T ) ? I(G; X n |G ? T ) ? log 2 ? log|T | pavg ? ? (T ) pmax and, Given Lemma 2, or even Lemma 1, it is the sharpness of an upper bound on the mutual information that governs the sharpness of lower bounds on the probability of error (and effectively, the number of samples n). In contrast to the trivial upper bound used in the corollary above, we next use a tighter bound from [20], which relates the mutual information to coverings in terms of the KL-divergence, applied to Lemma 2. Note that, as stated earlier, we simply impose a uniform distribution on G when dealing with pmax . Analogous bounds can be obtained for pavg . Corollary 2. Consider a graph class  G, and any T ? G. Recall  the definition of CT () from Section 2. For any  > 0, we have pmax ? 1 ? log|CT ()|+n+log 2 log|T | .   log|CT ()| | log 2 (1 ? ?) ? ? , then pmax ? Remark 2. From Corollary 2, we get: If n ? log|T  log|T | log|T | ?.  is an upper bound on the radius of the KL-balls in the covering, and usually varies with ?. But this corollary cannot be immediately used given a graph class: it requires us to specify a subset T of the overall graph class, the term , and the KL-covering CT (). We can simplify the bound above by setting  to be the radius of a single KL-ball w.r.t. some center, covering the whole set T . Suppose this radiusis ?, then the sizeof the covering set is just 1. In this | log 2 case, from Remark 2, we get: If n ? log|T (1 ? ?) ? log|T ? | , then pmax ? ?. Thus, our goal in the sequel would be to provide a general mechanism to derive such a subset T : that is large in number and yet has small diameter with respect to KL-divergence. We note that Fano?s lemma and variants described in this section are standard, and have been applied to a number of problems in statistical estimation [1, 14, 16, 20, 21]. 4 Structural conditions governing Correlation As discussed in the previous section, we want to find subsets T that are large in size, and yet have a small KL-diameter. In this section, we summarize certain structural properties that result in small KL-diameter. Thereafter, finding a large set T would amount to finding a large number of graphs in the graph class G that satisfy these structural properties. As a first step, we need to get a sense of when two graphs would have corresponding distributions with a small KL-divergence. To do so, we need a general upper bound on the KL-divergence between the corresponding distributions. A simple strategy is to simply bound it by its symmetric divergence[16]. In this case, a little calculation shows : D (fG kfG0 ) ? D (fG kfG0 ) + D (fG0 kfG ) X = ? (EG [xs xt ] ? EG0 [xs xt ]) + (s,t)?E\E 0 X ? (EG0 [xs xt ] ? EG [xs xt ]) (s,t)?E 0 \E (4) where E and E 0 are the edges in the graphs G and G0 respectively, and EG [?] denotes the expectation under fG . Also note that the correlation between xs and xt , EG [xs xt ] = 2PG (xs xt = +1) ? 1. 4 From Eq. (4), we observe that the only pairs, (s, t), contributing to the KL-divergence are the ones that lie in the symmetric difference, E?E 0 . If the number of such pairs is small, and the difference of correlations in G and G0 (i.e. EG [xs xt ]?EG0 [xs xt ]) for such pairs is small, then the KL-divergence would be small. To summarize the setting so far, to obtain a tight lower bound on sample complexity for a class of graphs, we need to find a subset of graphs T with small KL diameter. The key to this is to identify when KL divergence between (distributions corresponding to) two graphs would be small. And the key to this in turn is to identify when there would be only a small difference in the correlations between a pair of variables across the two graphs G and G0 . In the subsequent subsections, we provide two simple and general structural characterizations that achieve such a small difference of correlations across G and G0 . 4.1 Structural Characterization with Large Correlation One scenario when there might be a small difference in correlations is when one of the correlations is very large, specifically arbitrarily close to 1, say EG0 [xs xt ] ? 1 ? , for some  > 0. Then, EG [xs xt ] ? EG0 [xs xt ] ? , since EG [xs xt ] ? 1. Indeed, when s, t are part of a clique[16], this is achieved since the large number of connections between them force a higher probability of agreement i.e. PG (xs xt = +1) is large. In this work we provide a more general characterization of when this might happen by relying on the following key lemma that connects the presence of ?many? node disjoint ?short? paths between a pair of nodes in the graph to high correlation between them. We define the property formally below. Definition 1. Two nodes a and b in an undirected graph G are said to be (`, d) connected if they have d node disjoint paths of length at most `. Lemma 3. Consider a graph G and a scalar ? > 0. Consider the distribution fG (x) induced by 2 the graph. If a pair of nodes a and b are (`, d) connected, then EG [xa xb ] ? 1 ? (1+(tanh(?)) . ` )d 1+ (1?(tanh(?))` )d From the above lemma, we can observe that as ` gets smaller and d gets larger, EG [xa xb ] approaches its maximum value of 1. As an example, in a k-clique, any two vertices, s and t, are (2, k ? 1) connected. In this case, the bound from Lemma 3 gives us: EG [xa xb ] ? 1 ? 1+(cosh2 ?)k?1 . Of  course, a clique enjoys a lot more connectivity (i.e. also 3, k?1 connected etc., albeit with node 2 ?ke? overlaps) which allows for a stronger bound of ? 1 ? e?k (see [16])2 Now, as discussed earlier, a high correlation between a pair of nodes contributes a small term to the KL-divergence. This is stated in the following corollary. Corollary 3. Consider two graphs G(V, E) and G0 (V, E 0 ) and scalar weight ? > 0 such that E ? E 0 and E 0 ? E only contain pairs of nodes that are (`, d) connected in graphs G0 and G 2?|E?E 0 | respectively, then the KL-divergence between fG and fG0 , D (fG kfG0 ) ? . (1+(tanh(?))` )d 1+ 4.2 (1?(tanh(?))` )d Structural Characterization with Low Correlation Another scenario where there might be a small difference in correlations between an edge pair across two graphs is when the graphs themselves are close in Hamming distance i.e. they differ by only a few edges. This is formalized below for the situation when they differ by only one edge. Definition 2 (Hamming Distance). Consider two graphs G(V, E) and G0 (V, E 0 ). The hamming distance between the graphs, denoted by H(G, G0 ), is the number of edges where the two graphs differ i.e. H(G, G0 ) = |{(s, t) | (s, t) ? E?E 0 }| (5) Lemma 4. Consider two graphs G(V, E) and G0 (V, E 0 ) such that H(G, G0 ) = 1, and (a, b) ? E is the single edge in E?E 0 . Then, EfG [xa xb ] ? EfG0 [xa xb ] ? tanh(?). Also, the KL-divergence 0 between the distributions, D (fG kfG ) ? ? tanh(?). 2 Both the bound from [16] and the bound from Lemma 3 have exponential asymptotic behaviour (i.e. as k grows) for constant ?. For smaller ?, the bound from [16] is strictly better. However, not all graph classes allow for the presence of a large enough clique, for e.g., girth bounded graphs, path restricted graphs, Erd?os-R?nyi graphs. 5 The above bound is useful in low ? settings. In this regime ? tanh ? roughly behaves as ?2 . So, a smaller ? would correspond to a smaller KL-divergence. 4.3 Influence of Structure on Sample Complexity Now, we provide some high-level intuition behind why the structural characterizations above would be useful for lower bounds that go beyond the technical reasons underlying Fano?s Lemma that we have specified so far. Let us assume that ? > 0 is a positive real constant. In a graph even when the edge (s, t) is removed, (s, t) being (`, d) connected ensures that the correlation between s and t is still very high (exponentially close to 1). Therefore, resolving the question of the presence/absence of the edge (s, t) would be difficult ? requiring lots of samples. This is analogous in principle to the argument in [16] used for establishing hardness of learning of a set of graphs each of which is obtained by removing a single edge from a clique, still ensuring many short paths between any two vertices. Similarly, if the graphs, G and G0 , are close in Hamming distance, then their corresponding distributions, fG and fG0 , also tend to be similar. Again, it becomes difficult to tease apart which distribution the samples observed may have originated from. 5 Application to Deterministic Graph Classes In this section, we provide lower bound estimates for a number of deterministic graph families. This is done by explicitly finding a subset T of the graph class G, based on the structural properties of the previous section. See the supplementary material for details of these constructions. A common underlying theme to all is the following: We try to find a graph in G containing many edge pairs (u, v) such that their end vertices, u and v, have many paths between them (possibly, node disjoint). Once we have such a graph, we construct a subset T by removing one of the edges for these wellconnected edge pairs. This ensures that the new graphs differ from the original in only the wellconnected pairs. Alternatively, by removing any edge (and not just well-connected pairs) we can get another larger family T which is 1-hamming away from the original graph. 5.1 Path Restricted Graphs Let Gp,? be the class of all graphs on p vertices with have at most ? paths (? = o(p)) between any two vertices. We have the following theorem : n  o 1+cosh(2?)??1 p Theorem 1. For the class Gp,? , if n ? (1 ? ?) max log(p/2) , log , then ? tanh ? 2? 2(?+1) pmax ? ?. 2 To understand the scaling, it is useful to think of cosh(2?) to be roughly  ?exponential  in ? i.e. 2? 2 p samples. cosh(2?) ? e?(? )3 . In this case, from the second term, we need n ? ? e ? log ? If ? is scaling with p, this can be prohibitively large (exponential in ?2 ?). Thus, to have low sample ? complexity, we must enforce ? = O(1/ ?). In this case, the first term gives n = ?(? log p), since ? tanh(?) ? ?2 , for small ?. We may also consider a generalization of Gp,? . Let Gp,?,? be the set of all graphs on p vertices such that there are at most ? paths of length at most ? between any two nodes (with ? + ? = o(p)). Note that there may be more paths of length > ?. 1?? Theorem 2. Consider the graph class Gp,?,? . For any ? ? (0, 1), let t? = p ?(?+1) . If n ? ? ? ?  t?    1+tanh(?)?+1 ??1 ? ? 1+ cosh(2?) 1?tanh(?)?+1 (1 ? ?) max log(p/2) , ? log(p) , then pmax ? ?. ? tanh ? 2? ? ? The parameter ? ? (0, 1) in the bound above may be based scaling of ? and ?.  adjusted?+1  on the?+1 1+tanh(?) ? Also, an approximate way to think of the scaling of 1?tanh(?) is ? e . As an example, ?+1 for constant ? and ?, we may choose v = 12 . In this case, for some constant c, our bound imposes   ?+1 ?p log p ec? n ? ? ? tanh log p . Now, same as earlier, to have low sample complexity, we must ?, ? 3 2 In fact, for ? ? 3, we have e? /2 2 ? cosh(2?) ? e2? . For ? > 3, cosh(2?) > 200 6 have ? = O(1/p1/2(?+1) ), in which case, we get a n ? ?(p1/(?+1) log p) sample requirement from the first term. We note that the family Gp,?,? is also studied in [1], and for which, an algorithm is proposed. Under certain assumptions in [1], and the restrictions: ? = O(1), and ? is large enough, the algorithm in p [1] requires log ?2 samples, which is matched by the first term in our lower bound. Therefore, the algorithm in [1] is optimal, for the setting considered. 5.2 Girth Bounded Graphs The girth of a graph is defined as the length of its shortest cycle. Let Gp,g,d be the set of all graphs with girth atleast g, and maximum degree d. Note that as girth increases the learning problem becomes easier, with the extreme case of g = ? (i.e. trees) being solved by the well known ChowLiu algorithm[3] in O(log p) samples. We have the following theorem:  1??  Theorem 3. Consider the graph class Gp,g,d . For any ? ? (0, 1), let d? = min d, p g . If ? ? d?  1+tanh(?)g?1 ? ? 1+ g?1 1?tanh(?) n ? (1 ? ?) max log(p/2) , ? log(p) , then pmax ? ?. 2? ? ? tanh ? ? 5.3 Approximate d-Regular Graphs approx Let Gp,d be the set of all graphs whose vertices have degree d or degree d ? 1. Note that this class is subset of the class of graphs with degree at most d. We have:    log( pd ) approx pd e?d then pmax ? ?. Theorem 4. Consider the class Gp,d . If n ? (1??) max ? tanh4 ? , 2?de ? 4 Note that the second term in the bound above is from [16]. Now, restricting ? to prevent exponential growth in the number of samples, we get a sample requirement of n = ?(d2 log p). This matches the lower bound for degree d bounded graphs in [16]. However, note that Theorem 4 is stronger in the sense that the bound holds for a smaller class of graphs i.e. only approximately d-regular, and not d-bounded. 5.4 Approximate Edge Bounded Graphs   approx Let Gp,k be the set of all graphs with number of edges ? k2 , k . This class is a subset of the class of graphs with edges at most k. Here, we have: approx Theorem 5. Consider the class Gp,k , and let k ? 9. If we have number of samples n ? (1 ?   ?  ?( 2k?1) log( k ) e ? ?) max ? tanh2 ? , 2?e log k2 , then pmax ? ?. ? ( 2k+1) Note that the second term in the bound above is from [16]. If we restrict ? to prevent exponential growth in the number of samples, we get a sample requirement of n = ?(k log k). Again, we match the lower bound for the edge bounded class in [16], but through a smaller class. 6 Erd?os-R?nyi graphs G(p, c/p) In this section, we relate the number of samples required to learn G ? G(p, c/p) for the dense case, for guaranteeing a constant average probability of error pavg . We have the following main result whose proof can be found in the Appendix. Theorem 6. Let G ? G(p, c/p), c = ?(p3/4 + 0 ), 0 > 0. For this class of random graphs, if pavg ? 1/90, then n ? max (n1 , n2 ) where: H(c/p)(3/80) (1 ? 80pavg ? O(1/p)) n1 = ? ? 4?p exp(? 3 p 36 ) 3 2 p + 4 exp(? 144 )+ ? , n2 = p H(c/p)(1 ? 3pavg ) ? O(1/p) 4 4?  ? c2 9 1+(cosh(2?)) 6p (6) 7 Remark 3. In the denominator of the first expression, the dominating term is 4?  . c2 9 1+(cosh(2?)) 6p Therefore, we have the following corollary. 0 Corollary 4. Let G ? G(p, c/p), c = ?(p3/4+ ) for any 0 > 0. Let pavg ? 1/90, then   c2 ? 1. ? = ?( p/c) : ? ?H(c/p)(cosh(2?)) 6p samples are needed. ? 2. ? < O( p/c) : ?(c log p) samples are needed. (This bound is from [1] ) ? Remark 4. This means that when ? = ?( p/c), a huge number (exponential for constant ?) of ?  samples are required. Hence, for any efficient algorithm, we require ? = O p/c and in this regime O (c log p) samples are required to learn. 6.1 Proof Outline The proof skeleton is based on Lemma 2. The essence of the proof is to cover a set of graphs T , with large measure, by an exponentially small set where the KL-divergence between any covered and the covering graph is also very small. For this we use Corollary 3. The key steps in the proof are outlined below: 1. We identify a subclass of graphs T , as in Lemma 2, whose measure is close to 1, i.e. ?(T ) = 1 ? o(1). A natural candidate is the ?typical? set Tp which is defined to be a set of cp cp cp graphs each with ( cp 2 ? 2 , 2 + 2 ) edges in the graph. 2. (Path property) We show that most graphs in T have property R: there are O(p2 ) pairs of 2 nodes such that every pair is well connected by O( cp ) node disjoint paths of length 2 with high probability. The measure ?(R |T ) = 1 ? ?1 . T 3. (Covering with low diameter) Every graph G in R T is covered by a graph G0 from a covering set CR (?2 ) such that their edge set differs only in the O(p2 ) nodes that are well connected. Therefore, by Corollary 3, KL-divergence between G and G0 is very small 2 (?2 = O(?p2 cosh(?)?c /p )). 4. (Efficient covering in Size) Further, the covering set CR is exponentially smaller than T . 5. (Uncovered graphs have exponentially low measure) Then we show that the uncovered graphs have large KL-divergence O(p2 ?) but their measure ?(Rc |T ) is exponentially small. 6. Using a similar (but more involved) expression for probability of error as in Corollary 2, | ) samples. roughly we need O( ?log|T 1 +?2 The above technique is very general. Potentially this could be applied to other random graph classes. 7 Summary In this paper, we have explored new approaches for computing sample complexity lower bounds for Ising models. By explicitly bringing out the dependence on the weights of the model, we have shown that unless the weights are restricted, the model may be hard to learn. For example, it is hard to learn a graph which has many paths between many pairs of vertices, unless ? is controlled. For the random graph setting, Gp,c/p , while achievability is possible in the c = poly log p case[1], we have shown lower bounds for c > p0.75 . Closing this gap remains a problem for future consideration. The application of our approaches to other deterministic/random graph classes such as the ChungLu model[4] (a generalization of Erd?os-R?nyi graphs), or small-world graphs[18] would also be interesting. Acknowledgments R.T. and P.R. acknowledge the support of ARO via W911NF-12-1-0390 and NSF via IIS-1149803, IIS-1320894, IIS-1447574, and DMS-1264033. K.S. and A.D. acknowledge the support of NSF via CCF 1422549, 1344364, 1344179 and DARPA STTR and a ARO YIP award. 8 References [1] Animashree Anandkumar, Vincent YF Tan, Furong Huang, Alan S Willsky, et al. Highdimensional structure estimation in ising models: Local separation criterion. The Annals of Statistics, 40(3):1346?1375, 2012. [2] Guy Bresler, Elchanan Mossel, and Allan Sly. Reconstruction of markov random fields from samples: Some observations and algorithms. 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Cambridge University Press, 2011. [9] Ashish Goel, Michael Kapralov, and Sanjeev Khanna. Perfect matchings in o(n\logn) time in regular bipartite graphs. SIAM Journal on Computing, 42(3):1392?1404, 2013. [10] M. Hassner and J. Sklansky. Markov random field models of digitized image texture. In ICPR78, pages 538?540, 1978. [11] E. Ising. Beitrag zur theorie der ferromagnetismus. Zeitschrift f?r Physik, 31:253?258, 1925. [12] Stasys Jukna. Extremal combinatorics, volume 2. Springer, 2001. [13] C. D. Manning and H. Schutze. Foundations of Statistical Natural Language Processing. MIT Press, 1999. [14] Garvesh Raskutti, Martin J. Wainwright, and Bin Yu. Minimax rates of estimation for highdimensional linear regression over `q -balls. IEEE Trans. Inf. Theor., 57(10):6976?6994, October 2011. [15] B. D. Ripley. Spatial statistics. Wiley, New York, 1981. [16] Narayana P Santhanam and Martin J Wainwright. Information-theoretic limits of selecting binary graphical models in high dimensions. Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on, 58(7):4117?4134, 2012. [17] R. Tandon and P. Ravikumar. On the difficulty of learning power law graphical models. In In IEEE International Symposium on Information Theory (ISIT), 2013. [18] Duncan J. Watts and Steven H. Strogatz. Collective dynamics of ?small-world? networks. Nature, 393(6684):440?442, June 1998. [19] J.W. Woods. Markov image modeling. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 23:846?850, October 1978. [20] Yuhong Yang and Andrew Barron. Information-theoretic determination of minimax rates of convergence. Annals of Statistics, pages 1564?1599, 1999. [21] Yuchen Zhang, John Duchi, Michael Jordan, and Martin J Wainwright. Information-theoretic lower bounds for distributed statistical estimation with communication constraints. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 2328?2336. Curran Associates, Inc., 2013. 9
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A Probabilistic Framework for Multimodal Retrieval using Integrative Indian Buffet Process Larry S. Davis Institute for Advanced Computer Studies University of Maryland College Park, MD 20742 USA lsd@umiacs.umd.edu Bahadir Ozdemir Department of Computer Science University of Maryland College Park, MD 20742 USA ozdemir@cs.umd.edu Abstract We propose a multimodal retrieval procedure based on latent feature models. The procedure consists of a Bayesian nonparametric framework for learning underlying semantically meaningful abstract features in a multimodal dataset, a probabilistic retrieval model that allows cross-modal queries and an extension model for relevance feedback. Experiments on two multimodal datasets, PASCAL-Sentence and SUN-Attribute, demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed retrieval procedure in comparison to the state-of-the-art algorithms for learning binary codes. 1 Introduction As the number of digital images which are available online is constantly increasing due to rapid advances in digital camera technology, image processing tools and photo sharing platforms, similaritypreserving binary codes have received significant attention for image search and retrieval in largescale image collections [1, 2]. Encoding high-dimensional descriptors into compact binary strings has become a very popular representation for images because of their high efficiency in query processing and storage capacity [3, 4, 5, 6]. The most widely adapted strategy for similarity-preserving binary codes is to find a projection of data points from the original feature space to Hamming space. A broad range of hashing techniques can be categorized as data independent and dependent schemes. Locality sensitive hashing [3] is one of the most widely known data-independent hashing techniques. This technique has been extended to various hashing functions with kernels [4, 5]. Notable data-dependent hashing techniques include spectral hashing [1], iterative quantization [6] and spherical hashing [7]. Despite the increasing amount of multimodal data, especially in multimedia domains e.g. images with tags, most existing hashing techniques, unfortunately, focus on unimodal data. Hence, they inevitably suffer from the semantic gap, which is defined in [8] as the lack of coincidence between low level visual features and high level semantic interpretation of an image. On the other hand, joint analysis of multimodal data offers improved search and cross-view retrieval capabilities e.g. text-to-image queries by bridging the semantic gap. However, it also poses challenges associated with handling cross-view similarity. Most recent studies have concentrated on multimodal hashing. Bronstein et al. proposed crossmodality similarity learning via a boosting procedure [9]. Kumar and Udupa presented a cross-view similarity search [10] by generalizing spectral hashing [1] for multi-view data objects. Zhen and Yeung described two recent methods: Co-regularized hashing [11] based on a boosted co-regularization framework and a probabilistic generative approach called multimodal latent binary embedding [12] based on binary latent factors. Nitish and Salakhutdinov proposed a deep Boltzmann machine for multimodal data [13]. Recently, Rastegari et al. proposed a predictable dual-view hashing [14] that aims to minimize the Hamming distance between binary codes obtained from two different views by utilizing multiple SVMs. Most of the multimodal hashing techniques are computationally ex1 pensive, especially when dealing with large-scale data. High computational and storage complexity restricts their scalability. Although many hashing approaches rely on supervised information like semantic class labels, class memberships are not available for many image datasets. In addition, some supervised approaches cannot be generalized to unseen classes that are not used during training [15] even though new classes emerge in the process of adding new images to online image databases. Besides, every user?s need is different and time varying [16]. Therefore, user judgments indicating the relevance of an image retrieved for a query are utilized to achieve better retrieval performance in the revised ranking of images [17]. Development of an efficient retrieval system that embeds information from multiple domains into short binary codes and takes relevance feedback into account is quite challenging. In this paper, we propose a multimodal retrieval method based on latent features. A probabilistic approach is employed for learning binary codes, and also for modeling relevance and user preferences in image retrieval. Our model is built on the assumption that each image can be explained by a set of semantically meaningful abstract features which have both visual and textual components. For example, if an image in the dataset contains a side view of a car, the words ?car?, ?automobile? or ?vehicle? will probably appear in the description; also an object detector trained for vehicles will detect the car in the image. Therefore, each image can be represented as a binary vector, with entries indicating the presence or absence of each abstract feature. Our contributions can be summarized in three aspects: 1. We propose a Bayesian nonparametric framework based on the Indian Buffet Process (IBP) [18] for integrating multimodal data in a latent space. Since the IBP is a nonparametric prior in an infinite latent feature model, the proposed method offers a flexible way to determine the number of underlying abstract features in a dataset. 2. We develop a retrieval system that can respond to cross-modal queries by introducing new random variables indicating relevance to a query. We present a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for inference of the relevance from data. 3. We formulate relevance feedback as pseudo-images to alter the distribution of images in the latent space so that the ranking of images for a query is influenced by user preferences. The rest of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 describes the proposed integrative procedure for learning binary codes, retrieval model and processing relevance feedback in detail. Performance evaluation and comparison to state-of-the-art methods are presented in Section 3, and Section 4 provides conclusions. 2 Our Approach In our data model, each image has both textual and visual components. To facilitate the discussion, we assume that the dataset is composed of two full matrices; our approach can easily handle images with only one component and it can be generalized to more than two modalities as well. We denote the data in the textual and visual space by X? and Xv , respectively. X? is an N ? D? matrix whose rows corresponds to images in either space where ? is a placeholder used for either v or ? . The values in each column of X? are centered by subtracting the sample mean of that column. The dimensionality of the textual space D? and the dimensionality of the visual space Dv can be different. We use X to represent the set {X? , Xv }. 2.1 Integrative Latent Feature Model We focus on how textual and visual values of an image are generated by a linear-Gaussian model and its extension for retrieval systems. Given a multimodal image dataset, the textual and visual data matrices, X? and Xv , can be approximated by ZA? and ZAv , respectively. Z is an N ? K binary matrix where Znk equals to one if abstract feature k is present in image n and zero otherwise. A? is a K ? D? matrix where the textual and visual values for abstract feature k are stored in row k of A? and Av , respectively (See Figure 1 for an illustration). The set {A? , Av } is denoted by A. 2 Our initial goal is to learn abstract features present in the dataset. Given X , we wish to compute the posterior distribution of Z and A using Bayes? rule p(Z, A|X ) ? p(X? |Z, A? )p(A? )p(Xv |Z, Av )p(Av )p(Z) (1) where Z, A? and Av are assumed to be a priori independent. In our model, the vectors for textual and visual properties of an image are generated from Gaussian distributions with covariance matrix (?x? )2 I and expectation E[X? ] equal to ZA? . Similarly, a prior on A? is defined to be Gaussian with zero mean vector and covariance matrix (?a? )2 I. Since we do not know the exact number of abstract features present in the dataset, we employ the Indian Buffet Process (IBP) to generate Z, which provides a flexible prior that allows K to be determined at inference time (See [18] for details). The graphical model of our integrative approach is shown in Figure 2. Unobserved Observed Visual features for image visual textual Abstract features for image Textual features for image Figure 1: The latent abstract feature model proposes that visual data Xv is a product of Z and Av with some noise; and similarly the textual data X? is a product of Z and A? with some noise. Figure 2: Graphical model for the integrative IBP approach where circles indicate random variables, shaded circles denote observed values, and the blue square boxes are hyperparameters. The exchangeability property of the IBP leads directly to a Gibbs sampler which takes image n as the last customer to have entered the buffet. Then, we can sample Znk for all initialized features k via p(Znk = 1|Z?nk , X ) ? p(Znk = 1|Z?nk )p(X |Z). (2) where Z?nk denotes entries of Z other than Znk . In the finite latent feature model (where K is fixed), the conditional distribution for any Znk is given by p(Znk = 1|Z?nk ) = ? m?n,k + K ? N+K (3) where m?n,k is the number of images possessing abstract feature k apart from image n. In the m infinite case like the IBP, we obtain p(Znk = 1|Z?nk ) = ?n,k for any k such N  that m?n,k > 0. ? We also need to draw new features associated with image n from Poisson N , and the likelihood term is now conditioned on Z with new additional columns set to one for image n. 3 For the linear-Gaussian model, the collapsed likelihood function p(X |Z) = p(X? |Z)p(Xv |Z) can be computed using   Z exp ? 2(?1? )2 tr X? T (I ? ZMZT )X? ? ? ? ? ? x p(X |Z) = p(X |Z, A )p(A ) dA = (4) ?D ? N D? (2?) 2 (?x? )(N ?K)D? (?a? )KD? |M| 2 (? ? )2 ?1 and tr(?) is the trace of a matrix [18]. To reduce the computational where M = ZT Z + (?x? )2 I a complexity, Doshi-Velez and Ghahramani proposed an accelerated sampling in [19] by maintaining the posterior distribution of A? conditioned on partial X? and Z. We use this approach to learn binary codes, i.e. the feature-assignment matrix Z, for multimodal data. Unlike the hashing methods that learn optimal hyperplanes from training data [6, 7, 14], we only sample Z without specifying the length of binary codes in this process. Therefore, the binary codes can be updated efficiently if new images are added in a long run of the retrieval system. 2.2 Retrieval Model We extend the integrative IBP model for image retrieval. Given a query, we need to sort the images in the dataset with respect to their relevance to the query. A query can be comprised of textual and visual data, or either component can be absent. Let q? be a D? -dimensional vector for the textual values and qv be a Dv -dimensional vector for the visual values of the query. We can write Q = {q? , qv }. As for the images in X , we consider a query to be generated by the same model described in the previous section with the exception of the prior on abstract features. In the retrieval part, we consider Z as a known quantity and we fix the number abstract features to K. Therefore, the feature-assignments for the dataset are not affected by queries. In addition, queries are explained by known abstract features only. We extend the Indian restaurant metaphor to construct the retrieval model. A query corresponds to the (N + 1)th customer to enter the buffet. The previous customers are divided into two classes as friends and non-friends based on their relevance to the new customer. The new customer now samples from at most K dishes in proportion to their popularity among friends and also their unpopularity among non-friends. Consequently, the dishes sampled by the new customer are expected to be similar to those of friends and dissimilar to those of non-friends. Let r be an N -dimensional vector where rn equals to one if customer n is a friend of the new customer and zero otherwise. For this finitely long buffet, the sampling probability of dish k by the new customer can be written PN m0k +?/K as N +1+?/K where m0k = n=1 (Znk )rn (1 ? Znk )1?rn , that is the total number of friends who tried dish k and non-friends who did not sample dish k. Let z0 be a K-dimensional vector where zk0 records if the new customer (query) sampled dish k. We place a prior over rn as Bernoulli(?). Then, we can sample zk0 from p(zk0 = 1|z0?k , Q, Z, X ) ? p(zk0 = 1|Z)p(Q|z0 , Z, X ). The probability as below: p(zk0 (5) = 1|Z) can be computed efficiently for k = 1, . . . , K by marginalizing over r p(zk0 = 1|Z) = X p(zk0 = 1|r, Z)p(r) = r?{0,1}N ?mk + (1 ? ?)(N ? mk ) + ? N +1+ K ? K . (6) The collapsed likelihood of the query, p(Q|z0 , Z, X ), is given by the product of textual and visual likelihood values, p(q? |z0 , Z, X? )p(qv |z0 , Z, Xv ). If either textual or visual component is missing, we can simply integrate out the missing one by omitting the corresponding term from the equation. The likelihood of each part can be calculated as follows: Z p(q? |z0 , Z, X? ) = p(q? |z0 , A? )p(A? |Z, X? ) dA? = N (q? ; ??q , ??q ). (7) where the mean and covariance matrix of the normal distribution are given by ??q = z0 MZT X? and ??q = (?x? )2 (z0 Mz0T + I), akin to the update equation in [19] (Refer to (4) for M). Finally, we use the conditional expectation of r to rank images in the dataset with respect to their relevance to the given query. Calculating the expectation E[r|Q, Z, X ] is computationally expensive; 4 however, it can be empirically estimated using the Monte Carlo method as follows: 0(i) I I K X ? X Y p zk |rn = 1, Z ? n |Q, Z, X ] = 1 E[r p(rn = 1|z0(i) , Z) = 0(i)  I i=1 I i=1 p zk |Z k=1  (8) where z0(i) represents i.i.d. samples from (5) for i = 1, . . . , I. The last equation required for computing (8) is p(zk0 = 1|rn = 1, Z) = Znk + ?m?n,k + (1 ? ?)(N ? 1 ? m?n,k ) + ? N +1+ K ? K . (9) The retrieval system returns a set of top ranked images to the user. Note that we compute the expectation of relevance vector instead of sampling directly since binary values indicating the relevance are less stable and they hinder the ranking of images. 2.3 Relevance Feedback Model In our data model, user preferences can be described over abstract features. For instance, if abstract feature k is present in the most of positive samples i.e. images judged as relevant by the user and it is absent in the irrelevant ones, then we can say that the user is more interested in the semantic subspace represented by abstract feature k. In the revised query, the images having abstract feature k are expected to be ranked in higher positions in comparison to the initial query. We can achieve this desirable property from query-specific alterations to the sampling probability in (5) for the corresponding abstract features. Our approach is to add pseudo-images to the feature-assignment matrix Z before the computations of the revised query. For the Indian restaurant analogy, pseudoimages correspond to some additional friends of the new customer (query), who do not really exist in the restaurant. The distribution of dishes sampled by those imaginary customers reflects user relevance feedback. Thus, the updated expectation of the relevance vector has a bias towards user preferences. Let Zu be an Nu ?K feature-assignment matrix for pseudo-images only; then the number of pseudoimages, Nu , determines the influence of relevance feedback. Therefore, we set an upper limit on Nu as the number of real images, N , by placing a prior distribution as Nu ? Binomial(?, N ) where ? is a parameter that controls the weight of feedback. Let mu,k be the number of pseudo-images containing abstract feature k; then this number has an upper bound Nu by definition. For abstract feature k, a prior distribution conditioned on Nu can be defined as mu,k |Nu ? Binomial(?k , Nu ) where ?k is a parameter that can be tuned by relevance judgments. Let z00 be a K-dimensional feature-assignment vector for the revised query; then we can sample each zk00 via p(zk00 = 1|z00?k , Q, Z, X ) ? p(zk00 = 1|Z)p(Q|z00 , Z, X ) (10) where the computation of the collapsed likelihood is already shown in (7). Note that we do not actually generate all entries of Zu but only the sum of its columns mu and number of rows Nu for computing the sampling probability. We can write the first term as: p(zk00 = 1|Z) = N X Nu =0 p(Nu ) Nu X p(mu,k |Nu ) mu,k =0 X p(zk00 = 1|r, Zu , Z)p(r) r?{0,1}N N   X ?mk + (1 ? ?)(N ? mk ) + N j = ? (1 ? ?)N ?j ? N +1+ K +j j j=0 (11) ? K + ?k j Unfortunately, this expression has no compact analytic form; however, it can be efficiently computed numerically by contemporary scientific computing software even for large values of N . In this equation, one can alternatively fix rn to 1 if the user marks observation n as relevant or 0 if it is indicated to be irrelevant. Finally, the expectation of r is updated using (8) with new i.i.d. samples z00(i) from (10) and the system constructs the revised set of images. 5 3 Experiments The experiments were performed in two phases. We first compared the performance of our method in category retrieval with several state-of-the-art hashing techniques. Next, we evaluated the improvement in the performance of our method with relevance feedback. We used the same multimodal datasets as [14], namely PASCAL-Sentence 2008 dataset [20] and the SUN-Attribute dataset [21]. In the quantitative analysis, we used the mean of the interpolated precision at standard recall levels for comparing the retrieval performance. In the qualitative analysis, we present the images retrieved by our proposed method for a set of text-to-image and image-to-image queries. All experiments were performed in the Matlab environment1 . 3.1 Datasets The PASCAL-Sentence 2008 dataset is formed from the PASCAL 2008 images by randomly selecting 50 images belonging to each of the 20 categories. In experiments, we used the precomputed visual and textual features provided by Farhadi et al. [20]. Amazon Mechanical Turk workers annotate five sentences for each of the 1000 images. Each image is labelled by a triplet of <object, action, scene> representing the semantics of the image from these sentences. For each image, the semantic similarity between each word in its triplet and all words in a dictionary constructed from the entire dataset is computed by the Lin similarity measure [22] using the WordNet hierarchy. The textual features of an image are the sum of all similarity vectors for the words in its triplet. Visual features are built from various object detectors, image classifiers and scene classifiers. These features contain the coordinates and confidence values that object detectors fire and the responses of image and scene classifiers trained on low-level image descriptors. The SUN-Attribute dataset [21], a large-scale dataset of attribute-labeled scenes, is built on top of the existing SUN categorical dataset [23]. The dataset contains 102 attribute labels annotated by 3 Amazon Mechanical Turk workers for each of the 14,340 images from 717 categories. Each category has 20 annotated images. The precomputed visual features [21, 23] include gist, 2?2 histogram of oriented gradient, self-similarity measure, and geometric context color histograms. The attribute features is computed by averaging the binary labels from multiple annotators where each image is annotated with attributes from five types: materials, surface properties, functions or affordances, spatial envelope attributes and object presence. 3.2 Experimental Setup Firstly, all features were centered to zero and normalized to unit length; also duplicate features were removed from the data. We reduced the dimensionality of visual features in the SUN dataset from 19,080 to 1,000 by random feature selection, which is preferable to PCA for preserving the variance among visual features. The Gibbs sampler was initialized with a randomly sampled feature assignment matrix Z from a IBP prior. We set ? = 1 in all experiments to keep binary codes short. The other hyperparameters ?a? and ?x? were determined by adding Metropolis steps to the MCMC algorithm in order to prevent one modality from dominating the inference process. In the retrieval part, the relevance probability ? was set to 0.5 so that all abstract features have equal prior probability from (6). Feature assignments of a query were initialized with all zero bits. For relevance feedback analysis, we set ? = 1 (equal significance for the data and feedback) and we decide each ?k as follows: PI 0(i) Let z?k0 = I1 i=1 zk where each z0(i) is drawn from (5) for a given query; and z?k0 = P T 1 rt 1?rt where t represents the index of each image judged by the user and t=1 (Ztk ) (1 ? Ztk ) T T is the size of relevance feedback. The difference between these two quantities, ?k = z?k0 ? z?k0 , controls ?k which is defined by a logistic function as 1 ?k = (12) ?(c? k +?0,k ) 1+e p(z 0 =1|Z) where c is a constant and ?0,k = ln p(zk0 =0|Z) (refer to (6) for p(zk0 |Z)). We set c = 5 in our k experiments. Note that ?k = p(zk0 = 1|Z) when z?k0 is equal to z?k0 . 1 Our code is available at http://www.cs.umd.edu/?ozdemir/iibp 6 3.3 Experimental Results We compared our method, called integrative IBP (iIBP), with several hashing methods including locality sensitive hashing (LSH) [3], spectral hashing (SH) [1], spherical hashing (SpH) [7], iterative quantization (ITQ) [6], multimodal deep Boltzmann machine (mDBM) [13] and predictable dualview hashing (PDH) [14]. We divided each dataset into two equal sized train and test segments. The train segment was first used for learning the feature assignment matrix Z by iIBP. Then, the other binary code methods were trained with the same code length K. We used supervised ITQ coupled with CCA [24] and took the dual-view approach [14] to construct basis vectors in a common subspace. However, LSH, SH and SpH were applied on single-view data since they do not support cross-view queries. All images in the test segment were used as both image and text queries. Given a query, images in the train set were ranked by iIBP with respect to (8). For all other methods, we use Hamming distance between binary codes in the nearest-neighbor search. Mean precision curves are presented in Figure 3 for both datasets. Unlike the experiments in [14] performed in a supervised manner, the performance on the SUN-Attribute dataset is very low due to the small number of positive samples compared to the number of categories (Figure 3b). There are only 10 relevant images among 7,170 training images. Therefore, we also used Euclidean neighbor ground truth labels computed from visual data as in [6] (Figure 3c). As seen in the figure, our method (iIBP) outperforms all other methods. Although unimodal hashing methods perform well on text queries, they suffer badly on image queries because the semantic similarity to the query does not necessarily require visual similarity (Figures 3-4 in the supplementary material). By the joint analysis of visual and textual spaces, our approach improves the performance for image queries by bridging the semantic gap [8]. iIBP mDBM 0.7 0.6 ITQ SpH SH 0.5 0.08 0.45 Mean Precision Mean Precision Mean Precision 0.4 0.06 0.4 0.35 0.05 0.04 0.3 0.02 0.1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Recall 0.8 (a) PASCAL-Sentence Dataset (K = 23) 1 0.3 0.25 0.03 0.2 LSH 0.09 0.07 0.5 0 PDH 0.2 0.15 0.01 0.1 0 0.05 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Recall 0.8 (b) SUN Dataset ? Class label ground truth (K = 45) 1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Recall 0.8 1 (c) SUN Dataset ? Euclidean ground truth (K = 45) Figure 3: The result of category retrieval for all query types (image-to-image and text-to-image queries). Our method (iIBP) is compared with the-state-of-the-art methods. For qualitative analysis, Figure 4a shows the top-5 retrieved images from the PASCAL-Sentence 2008 dataset for image queries. Thanks to the integrative approach, the retrieved images share remarkable semantic similarity with the query images. Similarly, most of the retrieved images for the text-to-image queries in Figure 4b comprise the semantic structure in the query sentences. In the second phase of analyses, we utilized the rankings in the first phase to decide relevance feedback parameters independently for each query. We picked the top two relevant images as positive samples and top two irrelevant images as negative samples. We set each ?k by (12) and reordered the images using the relevance feedback model excluding the ones used as user relevance judgements. Those images were omitted from precision-recall calculations as well. Figure 5 illustrates that relevance feedback slightly boosts the retrieval performance, especially for the PASCAL-Sentence dataset. The computational complexity of an iteration is O(K 2 + KD? ) for a query and O(N (K 2 + KD? + KDv )) for training [19]. The feature assignment vector z0 of a query usually converges in a few 7 Query Retrieval Set A bird perching on a tree A boat sailing along a river A furniture located in a room A child sitting in a room A flower pot placed in a house (b) Text-to-image queries (a) Image-to-image queries Figure 4: Sample images retrieved from the PASCAL-Sentence dataset by our method (iIBP) iterations. A typical query took less than 1 second in our experiments for I = 50 with our optimized Matlab code. Text Query w/ feedback Text Query w/o feedback 0.7 0.012 0.6 0.01 Mean Precision 0.5 0.5 0.45 0.006 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Recall 0.8 (a) PASCAL-Sentence Dataset (K = 23) 1 0 0 0.2 0.15 0.002 0.2 0.3 0.25 0.004 0.3 0.4 0.35 0.008 0.4 0.1 0.55 Mean Precision 0.014 Mean Precision 0.8 Image Query w/ feedback Image Query w/o feedback 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 Recall 0.8 (b) SUN Dataset ? Class label ground truth (K = 45) 1 0.05 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Recall 0.8 1 (c) SUN Dataset ? Euclidean ground truth (K = 45) Figure 5: The result of category retrieval by our approach (iIBP) with relevance feedback for text and image queries. Revised retrieval with relevance feedback is compared with initial retrieval. 4 Conclusion We proposed a novel retrieval scheme based on binary latent features for multimodal data. We also describe how to utilize relevance feedback for better retrieval performance. The experimental results on real world data demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art hashing techniques. In our future work, we would like to develop a user inference to get relevance feedback and a deterministic variational method for inference the integrative IBP based on a truncated stick-breaking approximation. Acknowledgments This work was supported by the NSF Grant 12621215 EAGER: Video Analytics in Large Heterogeneous Repositories. 8 References [1] Y. Weiss, A. Torralba, and R. Fergus. Spectral hashing. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 21, pages 1753?1760, 2009. [2] A. Torralba, R. Fergus, and Y. Weiss. Small codes and large image databases for recognition. In IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), 2008, pages 1?8, June 2008. [3] A. Gionis, P. Indyk, and R. Motwani. Similarity search in high dimensions via hashing. In Proceedings of the 25th International Conference on Very Large Data Bases, VLDB ?99, pages 518?529, 1999. [4] B. Kulis and K. Grauman. Kernelized locality-sensitive hashing for scalable image search. In IEEE 12th International Conference on Computer Vision, 2009, pages 2130?2137, Sept 2009. [5] M. Raginsky and S. Lazebnik. Locality-sensitive binary codes from shift-invariant kernels. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 22, pages 1509?1517, 2009. [6] Y. Gong and S. Lazebnik. Iterative quantization: A procrustean approach to learning binary codes. In IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), 2011, pages 817?824, June 2011. [7] J.-P. Heo, Y. Lee, J. He, S.-F. Chang, and S.-E. Yoon. Spherical hashing. In IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), 2012, pages 2957?2964, June 2012. [8] A. W. M. Smeulders, M. Worring, S. Santini, A. Gupta, and R. Jain. Content-based image retrieval at the end of the early years. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 22(12):1349? 1380, Dec 2000. [9] M. M. Bronstein, E. M. Bronstein, F. Michel, and N. Paragios. Data fusion through cross-modality metric learning using similarity-sensitive hashing. In IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), 2010, pages 3594?3601, June 2010. [10] S. Kumar and R. Udupa. Learning hash functions for cross-view similarity search. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Second International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence - Volume Two, IJCAI?11, pages 1360?1365, 2011. [11] Y. Zhen and D.-Y. Yeung. Co-regularized hashing for multimodal data. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25, pages 1376?1384, 2012. [12] Y. Zhen and D.-Y. Yeung. A probabilistic model for multimodal hash function learning. In Proceedings of the 18th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, KDD ?12, pages 940?948, 2012. [13] Nitish Srivastava and Ruslan Salakhutdinov. Multimodal learning with deep boltzmann machines. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25, pages 2222?2230, 2012. [14] M. Rastegari, J. Choi, S. Fakhraei, H. Daume III, and L. S. Davis. Predictable Dual-View Hashing. Proceedings of The 30th International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 1328?1336, 2013. [15] A. Sharma, A. Kumar, H. Daume III, and D. W. Jacobs. Generalized multiview analysis: A discriminative latent space. In IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), 2012, pages 2160?2167, June 2012. [16] X. S. Zhou and T. S. Huang. Relevance feedback in image retrieval: A comprehensive review. Multimedia Systems, 8(6):536?544, 2003. [17] Y. Yang, F. Nie, D. Xu, J. Luo, Y. Zhuang, and Y. Pan. A multimedia retrieval framework based on semi-supervised ranking and relevance feedback. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 34(4):723?742, April 2012. [18] Z. Ghahramani and T. L. Griffiths. Infinite latent feature models and the indian buffet process. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 18, pages 475?482, 2005. [19] F. Doshi-Velez and Z. Ghahramani. Accelerated sampling for the indian buffet process. In Proceedings of the 26th Annual International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML ?09, pages 273?280, 2009. [20] A. Farhadi, M. Hejrati, M. A. Sadeghi, P. Young, C. Rashtchian, J. Hockenmaier, and D. Forsyth. Every picture tells a story: Generating sentences from images. In Proceedings of the 11th European Conference on Computer Vision: Part IV, ECCV?10, pages 15?29, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2010. [21] G. Patterson and J. Hays. Sun attribute database: Discovering, annotating, and recognizing scene attributes. In IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), 2012, pages 2751? 2758, June 2012. [22] D. Lin. An information-theoretic definition of similarity. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML ?98, pages 296?304, 1998. [23] J. Xiao, J. Hays, K. A. Ehinger, A. Oliva, and A. Torralba. Sun database: Large-scale scene recognition from abbey to zoo. In IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), 2010, pages 3485?3492, June 2010. [24] H. Hotelling. Relations Between Two Sets of Variates. Biometrika, 28(3/4):321?377, December 1936. 9
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A Neural Net Model for Adaptive Control of Saccadic Accuracy by Primate Cerebellum and Brainstem Paul Deana, John E. W. Mayhew and Pat Langdon Department of Psychology a and Artificial Intelligence Vision Research Unit, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, England. Abstract Accurate saccades require interaction between brainstem circuitry and the cerebeJJum. A model of this interaction is described, based on Kawato's principle of feedback-error-Iearning. In the model a part of the brainstem (the superior colliculus) acts as a simple feedback controJJer with no knowledge of initial eye position, and provides an error signal for the cerebeJJum to correct for eye-muscle nonIinearities. This teaches the cerebeJJum, modelled as a CMAC, to adjust appropriately the gain on the brainstem burst-generator's internal feedback loop and so alter the size of burst sent to the motoneurons. With direction-only errors the system rapidly learns to make accurate horizontal eye movements from any starting position, and adapts realistically to subsequent simulated eye-muscle weakening or displacement of the saccadic target. 1 INTRODUCTION The use of artificial neural nets (ANNs) to control robot movement offers advantages in situations where the relevant analytic solutions are unknown, or where unforeseeable changes, perhaps as a result of damage or wear, are likely to occur. It is also a mode of control with considerable similarities to those used in biological systems. It may thus prove possible to use ideas derived from studies of ANNs in robots to help understand how the brain produces movements. This paper describes an attempt to do this for saccadic eye movements. 595 596 Dean , Mayhew, and Langdon The structure of the human retina, with its small foveal area of high acuity, requires extensive use of eye-movements to inspect regions of interest. To minimise the time during which the retinal image is blurred, these saccadic refixation movements are very rapid - too rapid for visual feedback to be used in acquiring the target (Carpenter 1988). The saccadic control system must therefore know in advance the size of control signal to be sent to the eye muscles. This is a function of both target displacement from the fovea and initial eye-position. The latter is important because the eye-muscles and orbital tissues are elastic, so that more force is required to move the eye away from the straightahead position than towards it (Collins 1975). Similar rapid movements may be required of robot cameras. Here too the desired control signal is usually a function of both target displacement and initial camera positions. Experiments with a simulated four degree-of-freedom stereo camera rig have shown that appropriate ANN architectures can learn this kind of function reasonably efficiently (Dean et al. 1991), provided the nets are given accurate error information. However, this infonnation is only available if the relevant equations have been solved; how can ANNs be used in situations where this is not the case? A possible solution to this kind of problem (derived in part from analysis of biological motor control systems) has been suggested by Kawato (1990), and was implemented for the simulated stereo camera rig (Fig 1). Two controllers are arranged in Adaptive Feedforward Controller (ANN) Camera Positions Command No.1 Change in camera position First Saccade (1) ERROR (1) (1) 'Thrget Coordinates (2) Second (corrective) Saccade (2) Simple Feedback Controller --~(2) I -..... ... Command No.2 Change in camera position Fig 1: Control architecture for robot saccades parallel. Target coordinates, together with information about camera positions, are passed to an adaptive feedforward controller in the form of an ANN, which then moves the cameras. If the movement is inaccurate, the new target coordinates are passed to the second controller. This knows nothing of initial camera position, but issues a corrective movement command that is simply proportional to target displacement. In the absence of the adaptive controller it can be used to home in on the target with a series of saccades: Adaptive Control of Saccadic Accuracy by Primate Cerebellum and Brainstem though each individual saccade is ballistic, the sequence is generated by visual feedback, hence the tenn simple feedback controller. When the adaptive controller is present, however, the output of the simple feedback controller can be used not only to generate a corrective saccade but also as a motor error signal (Fig 1). Although this error signal is not accurate, its imperfections become less important as the ANN learns and so takes on more responsibility for the movement (for proof of convergence see Kawato 1990). The architecture is robust in that it learns on-line, does not require mathematical knowledge, and still functions to some extent when the adaptive controller is untrained or damaged. These qualities are also important for control of saccades in biological systems, and it is therefore of interest that there are similarities between the architecture shown in Fig 1 and the structure of the primate saccadic system (Fig 2). The cerebellum is widely (though Cerebellar Structures NPH = nucleus prepositus hypoglossi I NPH MouyFibm I I ~ Mouy Fibre l ( Retina ) Superior Collic:ulus NRTP f-' Posterior Vermis ..... NKfP= nucleus reticularis tegmenti pontis Climbing Fibre J Fastigial Nucleus Inferior Olive Pontine Reticular Formation r--- Oculomotor Nuc:lei Eye Muscles Brainstem Structures Fig 2: Schematic diagram of major components of primate saccadic control system not universally) regarded as an adaptive controller, and when the relevant part of it is damaged the remaining brainstem structures function like the simple feedback controller of Fig 1. Saccades can still be made, but (i) they are not accurate; (ii) the degree of inaccuracy depends on initial eye position; (iii) multiple saccades are required to home in on the target; and (iv) the system never recovers (eg Ritchie 1976; Optic an and Robinson 1980). These similarities suggest that it is worth exploring the idea that the brains tern teaches the cerebellum to make accurate saccades (cf Grossberg and Kuperstein 1986), just as the simple feedback controller teaches the adaptive controller in the Kawato architecture. A model of the primate system was therefore constructed, using 'off-the-shelf components wired together in accordance with known anatomy and physiology, and its performance assessed under a variety of conditions. 597 598 Dean, Mayhew, and Langdon 2 STRUCTURE OF MODEL The overall structure of the model is shown in Fig 3. It has three main components: a simple feedback controller, a burst generator, and a CMAC. The simple feedback ----------, Eye Position I I I I I CMAC I~--,.~~ L__ Crude Command (copy) ViaNJ(['P E~~~~J Error Via olivt ......II-.J........ - , r,------.. I 'IlIrget Feedback Controller Flxed gain Integrator (ftsettable) I I I II I PLANT Figure 3: Main components of the model. The corresponding biological structures are shown in italics and dotted lines. controller sends a signal proportional to target displacement from the fovea to the burst generator. The function of the burst generator is to translate this signal into an appropriate command for the eye muscles, and it is based here on the model of Robinson (Robinson 1975; van Gisbergen et at. 1981). Its output is a rapid burst of neural impulses, the frequency of which is esentially a velocity command. A crucial feature of Robinson's model is an internal feedback loop, in which the output of the generator is integrated and compared with the input command. The saccade tenninates when the two are equal. This system ensures that the generator gives the output matching the input command in the face of disturbances that might alter burst frequency and hence saccade velocity. The simple feedback controller sends to the CMAC (Albus 1981) a copy of its command to the burst generator. The CMAC (Cerebellar Model Arithmetic Computer) is a neural net model of the cerebellum incoporating theories of cerebellar function proposed independently by Marr (1969) and Albus (1971). Its function is to learn a mapping between a multidimensional input and a single-valued output, using a form of lookup table with local interpolation. The entries in the lookup table are modified using the delta rule, by an error signal which is either the difference between desired and actual output or some estimate of that difference. CMACs have been used successfully in a number of Adaptive Control of Saccadic Accuracy by Primate Cerebellum and Brainstem applications concerning prediction or control (eg Miller et aI. 1987; Honnel 1990). In the present case the function to be learnt is that relating desired saccade amplitude and initial eye position (inputs) to gain adjustment in the internal feedback loop of the burst generator (output). The correspondences between the model structure and the anatomy and physiology of the primate saccadic system are as follows. (1) The simple feedback controller represents the superior colliculus. (2) The burst generator corresponds to groups of neurons located in the brainstem. (3) The CMAC models a particular region of cerebellar cortex, the posterior vennis. (4) The pathway conveying a copy of the feedback controller's crude command corresponds to the projection from the superior colliculus to the nucleus reticularis tegmenti pontis, which in tum sendes a mossy fibre projection to the posterior vennis. Space precludes detailed evaluation of the substantial evidence supporting the above correspondences (see eg Wurtz and Goldberg 1989). The remaining two connections have a less secure basis. (5) The idea that the cerebellum adjusts saccadic accuracy by altering feedback gains in the burst generator is based on stimulation evidence (Keller 1989); details of the projection, including its anatomy, are not known. (6) The error pathway from feedback controller to CMAC is represented by the anatomically identified projection from superior colliculus to inferior olive, and thence via climbing fibres to the posterior vermis. There is considerable debate concerning the functional role of climbing fibres, and in the case of the tecto-olivary projection the relevant physiological evidence appears to be lacking. 3 PERFORMANCE OF MODEL The system shown in Fig 3 was trained to make horizontal movements only. The size of burst ~I (arbitrary units) required to produce an accurate rightward saccade ~9 deg was calculated from Van Gisbergen and Van Opstal's (1989) analysis of the nonlinear relationship between eye position and muscle position as ~I = a [~92 + ~9 (b + 29)] (1) where 9 is initial eye-position (measured in deg from extreme leftward eye-position) and a and b are constants. In the absence of the CMAC, the feedback controller and burst generator produce a burst of size ~I = x. (c/d) (2) where x is the rightward horizontal displacement of the target, c is the gain constant of the feedback controller, and d a constant related to the fixed gain of the internal feedback loop of the burst generator. The kinematics of the eye are such that x (measured in deg of visual angle) is equal to ~9. The constants were chosen so that the perfonnance of the system without the CMAC resembled that of the primate saccadic system after cerebellar damage (fig 4A), namely position-dependent overshoot (eg Ritchie 1976; Optican and 599 600 Dean, Mayhew, and Langdon A l i -== -; ~ B (No cerebellum) 5.0 C (Infant) 5.0 1RiKhhrardsaccade -.1 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.5 3. 5 S Iat1mg pooin"" (deg. righr) 3. 0 3.0 --0-- -40 ????????? -20 2.5 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 _0 2 .5 .--.-- 2.5 +20 2.0 2.0 ('fralned) 5.0 2.0 overshoot < t 1.5 ~ ??? _. u aIhn ?? ? -- aCOlrate 0_- 1.0 0 .5 undlhoot o. o+-O""-T~-r--"'-O""-T----' 0.0 20 40 '0 10 100 20 40 '0 10 100 20 40 '0 10 100 saccade amplitude (deg.) Fig 4. Performance of model under different conditions before and after training Robinson 1980). When the CMAC is present, the size of burst changes to ~I = x. [c/(g + d)] (3) where g is the output of the CMAC. This was initialised to a value that produced a degree of saccadic undershoot (Fig 4b) characteristic of initial performance in human infants (eg Aslin 1987). Training data were generated as 50,000 pairs of random numbers representing the initial position of the eye and the location of the target respectively. Each pair had to satisfy the constraints that (i) both lay within the oculomotor range (45 deg on either side of midline) and (ii) the target lay to the right of the starting position. For the test data the starting position varied from 40 deg left to 30 deg right in 10 degree steps. For each starting position there was a series of targets, starting at 5 deg to the right of the start and increasing in 5 degree steps up to 40 dcg to the right of midline (a subset of the test data was used in Fig 4). The main measure of performance was the absolute gain error (ie the the difference between the actual gain and 1.0, always taken as positive) averaged ovcr the test set. The configuration of the CMAC was examined in pilot experiments. The CMAC coarsecodes its inputs, so that for a given resolution r, an input span of s can be represented as set of m measurement grids each dividing the input span into n compartments, where sIr = m.n. Combinations of m and n were examined, using perfect error feedback. A reasonable compromise between learning speed and asymptotic accuracy was achieved by using 10 coarse-coding grids each with lOxlO resolution (for the two input dimensions). giving a total of 1000 memory cells. Adaptive Control of Saccadic Accuracy by Primate Cerebellum and Brainstem The main part of the study investigated first the effects of degrading the quality of the error feedback on learning. The main conclusion was that efficient learning could be obtained if the CMAC were told only the direction of the error, ie overshoot versus undershoot. This infonnation was used to increase by a small fixed amount the weights in the activated cells (thereby producing increased gain in the internal feedback loop) when the saccade was too large, and to decreasing them similarly when it was too small. Appropriate choice of learning rate gave a realistic overall error of 5% (Fig 4c) after about 2000 trials. Direct comparison with learning rates of human infants, who take several months to achieve accuracy, is confounded by such factors as the maturation of the retina (Aslin 1987). Learning parameters were then kept constant, and the model tested with simulations of two different conditions that produce saccadic plasticity in adult humans. One involved the effects of weakening the rightward pulling eye muscle in one eye. In people, the weakened eye can be trained by covering the nonnal eye with a patch, an effect which experiments with monkeys indicate depends on the cerebellum (Optic an and Robinson 1980). For the model eye-weakening was simulated by increasing the constant a in equation (1) such that the trained system gave an average gain of about 0.5. Retraining required about 400-500 trials. Testing the previously normal eye (ie with the original value of a) showed that it now overshot, as is also the case in patients and experimental animals. Again normal performance was restored after 400-500 trials. These learning rates compare favourably with those observed in experimental animals. Finally, the second simulation of adult saccadic plasticity concerned the effects of moving the target during a saccade. If the target is moved in the opposite direction to its original displacement the saccade will overshoot, but after a few trials adaptation occurs and the saccade becomes 'accurate' once more. Simulation of the procedure used by Deubel et al. (1986) gave system adaptation rates similar to those observed experimentally in people. 4 CONCLUSIONS These results indicate that the model can account in general terms for the acquisition and maintenance of saccadic accuracy in primates (at least in one dimension). In addition to its general biologically attractive properties, the model's structure is consistent with current anatomical and physiological knowledge, and offers testable predictions about the functions of the hitherto mysterious projections from superior colliculus to posterior vennis. If these predictions are supported by experimental evidence, it would be appropriate to extend the model to incorporate greater physiological detail, for example concerning the precise location(s) of cerebellar plasticity. Acknowledgements This work was supported by the Joint Council Initiative in Cognitive Science. 601 602 Dean, Mayhew. and Langdon References Albus, J.A. (1971) A theory of cerebellar function. Math. Biosci. 10: 25-61. Albus, J.A. (1981) Brains, Behavior and Robotics. BYTE books (McGraw-Hill), Peterborough New Hampshire. Aslin, R.N. (1987) Motor aspects of visual development in infancy. In: Handbook of Infant Perception, eds. P. Salapatek and L. Cohen. Academic Press, New York, pp.43113. Collins, C.c. (1975) The human oculomotor control system. In: Basic Mechanisms of Ocular Motility and their Clinical Implications, eds. G. Lennerstrand and P. Bach-yRita. Pergamon Press, Oxford, pp. 145-180. Dean, P., Mayhew, J.E.W., Thacker, T. and Langdon, P. (1991) Saccade control in a simulated robot camera-head system: neural net architectures for efficient learning of inverse kinematics. Bioi. Cybern. 66: 27-36. Deubel, H., Wolf, W. and Hauske, G. (1986) Adaptive gain control of saccadic eye movements. Human Neurobiol. 5: 245-253. Grossberg, S. and Kuperstein, M. (1986) Neural Dynamics of Adaptive Sensory-Motor Control: Ballistic Eye Movements. Elsevier, Amsterdam. Honnel, M. (1990) A self-organising associative memory system for control applications. In: Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 2, ed. D.S. Touretzky. Morgan Kaufman, San Mateo, California, pp.332-339. Kawato, M. (1990) Feedback-error-learning neural network for supervised motor learning. In Advanced Neural Computers, ed. R. EckmiIler. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp.365-372. Keller, E.L. (1989) The cerebellum. In: The Neurobiology of Saccadic Eye Movements, eds. Wurtz, R.H. and Goldberg, M.E. Elsevier Science Publishers, North Holland, pp. 391-411. Marr, D. (1969) A theory of cerebellar cortex. 1. Physiol. 202: 437-470. Miller, W.T. III, Glanz, EH. and Gordon Kraft, L. III (1987) Application of a general learning algorithm to the control of robotic manipulators. Int. 1. Robotics Res. 6: 8498. Optican, L.M. and Robinson, D.A. (1980) Cerebellar-dependent adaptive control of primate saccadic system. 1. Neurophysiol. 44: 1058-1076. Ritchie, L. (1976) Effects of cerebellar lesions on saccadic eye movements. 1. Neurophysiol. 39: 1246-1256. Robinson, D.A. (1975) Oculomotor control signals. In: Basic Mechanisms of Ocular Motility and their Clinical Implications, eds. Lennerstrand, G. and Bach-y-Rita, P. Pergamon Press, Oxford, pp. 337-374. Van Gisbergen, J.A.M., Robinson, D.A. and Gielen, S. (1981) A quantitative analysis of generation of saccadic eye movements by burst neurons. 1. Neurophysiol. 45: 417442. Van Gisbcrgen, J.A.M. and van Opstal, AJ. (1989) Models. In: The Neurobiology of Saccadic Eye Movements, eds. Wurtz, R.H. and Goldberg, M.E. Elsevier Science Publishers, North Holland, pp. 69-101. Wurtz, R.H. and Goldberg, M.E. (1989) The Neurobiology of Saccadic Eye Movements. Elsevier Science Publishers, North Holland.
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Multivariate f -Divergence Estimation With Confidence Alfred O. Hero III Department of EECS University of Michigan Ann Arbor, MI hero@eecs.umich.edu Kevin R. Moon Department of EECS University of Michigan Ann Arbor, MI krmoon@umich.edu Abstract The problem of f -divergence estimation is important in the fields of machine learning, information theory, and statistics. While several nonparametric divergence estimators exist, relatively few have known convergence properties. In particular, even for those estimators whose MSE convergence rates are known, the asymptotic distributions are unknown. We establish the asymptotic normality of a recently proposed ensemble estimator of f -divergence between two distributions from a finite number of samples. This estimator has MSE convergence rate of O T1 , is simple to implement, and performs well in high dimensions. This theory enables us to perform divergence-based inference tasks such as testing equality of pairs of distributions based on empirical samples. We experimentally validate our theoretical results and, as an illustration, use them to empirically bound the best achievable classification error. 1 Introduction This paper establishes the asymptotic normality of a nonparametric estimator of the f -divergence between two distributions from a finite number of samples. For many nonparametric divergence estimators the large sample consistency has already been established and the mean squared error (MSE) convergence rates are known for some. However, there are few results on the asymptotic distribution of non-parametric divergence estimators. Here we show that the asymptotic distribution is Gaussian for the class of ensemble f -divergence estimators [1], extending theory for entropy estimation [2, 3] to divergence estimation. f -divergence is a measure of the difference between distributions and is important to the fields of machine learning, information theory, and statistics [4]. The f -divergence generalizes several measures including the Kullback-Leibler (KL) [5] and R?nyi? [6] divergences. Divergence estimation is useful for empirically estimating the decay rates of error probabilities of hypothesis testing [7], extending machine learning algorithms to distributional features [8, 9], and other applications such as text/multimedia clustering [10]. Additionally, a special case of the KL divergence is mutual information which gives the capacities in data compression and channel coding [7]. Mutual information estimation has also been used in machine learning applications such as feature selection [11], fMRI data processing [12], clustering [13], and neuron classification [14]. Entropy is also a special case of divergence where one of the distributions is the uniform distribution. Entropy estimation is useful for intrinsic dimension estimation [15], texture classification and image registration [16], and many other applications. However, one must go beyond entropy and divergence estimation in order to perform inference tasks on the divergence. An example of an inference task is detection: to test the null hypothesis that the divergence is zero, i.e., testing that the two populations have identical distributions. Prescribing a p-value on the null hypothesis requires specifying the null distribution of the divergence estimator. Another statistical inference problem is to construct a confidence interval on the divergence based on 1 the divergence estimator. This paper provides solutions to these inference problems by establishing large sample asymptotics on the distribution of divergence estimators. In particular we consider the asymptotic distribution of the nonparametric weighted ensemble estimator of f -divergence from [1]. This estimator estimates the f -divergence from two finite populations of i.i.d. samples drawn from some unknown, nonparametric,smooth, d-dimensional distributions. The estimator [1] achieves a MSE convergence rate of O T1 where T is the sample size. See [17] for proof details. 1.1 Related Work Estimators for some f -divergences already exist. For example, P?czos & Schneider [8] and Wang et al [18] provided consistent k-nn estimators for R?nyi-? and the KL divergences, respectively. Consistency has been proven for other mutual information and divergence estimators based on plug-in histogram schemes [19, 20, 21, 22]. Hero et al [16] provided an estimator for R?nyi-? divergence but assumed that one of the densities was known. However none of these works study the convergence rates of their estimators nor do they derive the asymptotic distributions. Recent work has focused on deriving convergence rates for divergence estimators. Nguyen et al [23], Singh and P?czos [24], and Krishnamurthy et al [25] each proposed divergence estimators that achieve the parametric convergence rate (O T1 ) under weaker conditions than those given in [1]. However, solving the convex problem of [23] can be more demanding for large sample sizes than the estimator given in [1] which depends only on simple density plug-in estimates and an offline convex optimization problem. Singh and P?czos only provide an estimator for R?nyi-? divergences that requires several computations at each boundary of the support of the densities which becomes difficult to implement as d gets large. Also, this method requires knowledge of the support of the densities which may not be possible for some problems. In contrast, while the convergence results of the estimator in [1] requires the support to be bounded, knowledge of the support is not required for implementation. Finally, the estimators given in [25] estimate divergences that include functionals of ? the form f1? (x)f2? (x)d?(x) for given ?, ?. While a suitable ?-? indexed sequence of divergence functionals of the form in [25] can be made to converge to the KL divergence, this does not guarantee convergence of the corresponding sequence of divergence estimates, whereas the estimator in [1] can be used to estimate the KL divergence. Also, for some divergences of the specified form, numerical integration is required for the estimators in [25], which can be computationally difficult. In any case, the asymptotic distributions of the estimators in [23, 24, 25] are currently unknown. Asymptotic normality has been established for certain appropriately normalized divergences between a specific density estimator and the true density [26, 27, 28]. However, this differs from our setting where we assume that both densities are unknown. Under the assumption that the two densities are smooth, lower bounded, and have bounded support, we show that an appropriately normalized weighted ensemble average of kernel density plug-in estimators of f -divergence converges in distribution to the standard normal distribution. This is accomplished by constructing a sequence of interchangeable random variables and then showing (by concentration inequalities and Taylor series expansions) that the random variables and their squares are asymptotically uncorrelated. The theory developed to accomplish this can also be used to derive a central limit theorem for a weighted ensemble estimator of entropy such as the one given in [3].We verify the theory by simulation. We then apply the theory to the practical problem of empirically bounding the Bayes classification error probability between two population distributions, without having to construct estimates for these distributions or implement the Bayes classifier. Bold face type is used in this paper for random variables and random vectors. Let f1 and f2 be densities and define L(x) = ff12 (x) (x) . The conditional expectation given a random variable Z is EZ . 2 The Divergence Estimator Moon and Hero [1] focused on estimating divergences that include the form [4]  ?  f1 (x) G(f1 , f2 ) = g f2 (x)dx, f2 (x) (1) for a smooth, function g(f ). (Note that although g must be convex for (1) to be a divergence, the estimator in [1] does not require convexity.) The divergence estimator is constructed us2 ing k-nn density estimators as follows. Assume that the d-dimensional multivariate densities d f1 and f2 have finite support S = [a, b] . Assume that T = N + M2 i.i.d. realizations {X1 , . . . , XN , XN +1 , . . . , XN +M2 } are available from the density f2 and M1 i.i.d. realizations {Y1 , . . . , YM1 } are available from the density f1 . Assume that ki ? Mi . Let ?2,k2 (i) be the distance of the k2 th nearest neighbor of Xi in {XN +1 , . . . , XT } and let ?1,k1 (i) be the distance of the k1 th nearest neighbor of Xi in {Y1 , . . . , YM1 } . Then the k-nn density estimate is [29] ?fi,k (Xj ) = i ki , Mi c??di,ki (j) where c? is the volume of a d-dimensional unit ball. To construct the plug-in divergence estimator, the data from f2 are randomly divided into two parts {X1 , . . . , XN } and {XN +1 , . . . , XN +M2 }. The k-nn density estimate ?f2,k2 is calculated at the N points {X1 , . . . , XN } using the M2 realizations {XN +1 , . . . , XN +M2 }. Similarly, the knn density estimate ?f1,k1 is calculated at the N points {X1 , . . . , XN } using the M1 realizations ? k ,k (x) = ?f1,k1 (x) . The functional G(f1 , f2 ) is then approximated as {Y1 , . . . , YM }. Define L 1 1 ? f2,k2 (x) 2 N   X ? k ,k (Xi ) . ? k ,k = 1 g L G 1 2 1 2 N i=1 (2) The principal assumptions on the densities f1 and f2 and the functional g are that: 1) f1 , f2 , and g are smooth; 2) f1 and f2 have common bounded support sets S; 3) f1 and f2 are strictly lower bounded. The full assumptions (A.0) ? (A.5) are given in the supplementary material and in[17]. Moon and Hero [1] showed that under these assumptions, the MSE convergence rate of the estimator in Eq. 2 to the quantity in Eq. 1 depends exponentially on the dimension d of the densities. However, Moon and Hero also showed that an estimator with the parametric convergence rate O(1/T ) can be derived by applying the theory of optimally weighted ensemble estimation as follows. Let ?l = {l1 , . . . , lL } be n a setoof index values and T the number of samples available. For an indexed ?l ensemble of estimators E of the parameter E, the weighted ensemble estimator with weights l?? l P ? w = P ? w (l) E ? l . The key w = {w (l1 ) , . . . , w (lL )} satisfying l??l w(l) = 1 is defined as E l?l idea to reducing MSE is that by choosing appropriate weights w, we can greatlyndecrease the bias o ? in exchange for some increase in variance. Consider the following conditions on El [3]: l?? l ? C.1 The bias is given by    X 1 ?i/2d ? Bias El = , ci ?i (l)T +O ? T i?J  where ci are constants depending on the underlying density, J = {i1 , . . . , iI } is a finite index set with I < L, min(J) > 0 and max(J) ? d, and ?i (l) are basis functions depending only on the parameter l. ? C.2 The variance is given by     h i ? l = cv 1 + o 1 . Var E T T n o ?l Theorem 1. [3] Assume conditions C.1 and C.2 hold for an ensemble of estimators E . Then l?? l there exists a weight vector w0 such that    2  1 ?w ? E E E = O . 0 T The weight vector w0 is the solution to the following convex optimization problem: minw ||w|| P 2 subject to l?? l w(l) P= 1, ?w (i) = l??l w(l)?i (l) = 0, i ? J. 3 Algorithm 1 Optimally weighted ensemble divergence estimator Input: ?, ?, L positive real numbers ?l, samples {Y1 , . . . , YM1 } from f1 , samples {X1 , . . . , XT } from f2 , dimension d, function g, c? ?w Output: The optimally weighted divergence estimator G 0 1: Solve for w0 using Eq. 3 with basis functions ?i (l) = li/d , l ? ? l and i ? {1, . . . , d ? 1} 2: M2 ? ?T , N ? T ? M2 3: for all l ? ? l?do 4: k(l) ? l M2 5: for i = 1 to N do 6: ?j,k(l) (i) ?the distance of the k(l)th nearest neighbor of Xi in {Y1 , . . . , YM1 } and {XN +1 , . . . , XT } for j = 1, 2, respectively k(l) ? ? k(l) (Xi ) ? ?f1,k(l) 7: fj,k(l) (Xi ) ? for j = 1, 2, L d ? f2,k(l) Mj c??j,k(l) (i) end for   ? k(l) ? 1 PN g L ? k(l) (Xi ) G i=1 N 10: end for P ?w ? ? 11: G 0 l?? l w0 (l)Gk(l) 8: 9: In order to achieve the rate of O (1/T ) it is not necessary for the weights to zero out the lower order bias terms, i.e. that ?w (i) = 0, i ? J. It was shown in [3] that solving the following convex optimization problem in place of the optimization problem in Theorem 1 retains the MSE convergence rate of O (1/T ): minw P subject to l??l w(l) = 1, i 1 ?w (i)T 2 ? 2d ? , i ? J, (3) 2 kwk2 ? ?, where the parameter ? is chosen to trade-off between bias and variance. Instead of forcing ?w (i) = 0, ? the relaxed optimization problem uses the weights to decrease the bias terms at the rate of O(1/ T ) which gives an MSE rate of O(1/T ). Theorem 1 was applied in [3] to obtain an entropy estimator with convergence rate O (1/T ) . Moon and Hero [1] similarly applied Theorem 1 to obtain a divergence estimator with the same rate in the following manner. Let L > I = d ? 1 and choose ?l = {l1 , . . . , lL } to be positive real numbers. As? ? k(l) := G ? k(l),k(l) , and sume that M1 = O (M2 ) . Let k(l) = l M2 , M2 = ?T with 0 < ? < 1, G P ? w := ? G sizes for the l?? l w(l)Gk(l) . Note that the parameter l indexes over differentnneighborhood o ? k(l) k-nn density estimates. From [1], the biases of the ensemble estimators G satisfy the conl?? l ? k(l) also dition C.1 when ?i (l) = li/d and J = {1, . . . , d?1}. The general form of the variance of G follows C.2. The optimal weight w0 is found by using Theorem 1 to obtain a plug-in f -divergence estimator with convergence rate of O (1/T ) . The estimator is summarized in Algorithm 1. 3 Asymptotic Normality of the Estimator ? w converges The following theorem shows that the appropriately normalized ensemble estimator G in distribution to a normal random variable. Theorem?2. Assume that assumptions (A.0) ? (A.5) hold and let M = O(M1 ) = O(M2 ) and ? w is k(l) = l M with l ? ?l. The asymptotic distribution of the weighted ensemble estimator G given by ? ? h i ? ? ? Gw ? E Gw ? r lim P r ? ? t? h i ? ? = P r(S ? t), M,N ?? ? Var Gw 4 h i h i ? w ? G(f1 , f2 ) and Var G ? w ? 0. where S is a standard normal random variable. Also E G The results on the mean and variance come from [1]. The proof of the distributional convergence is outlined below and is based on constructing a sequence of interchangeable random variables N {YM,i }i=1 with zero mean and unit variance. We then show that the YM,i are asymptotically 2 uncorrelated and that the YM,i are asymptotically uncorrelated as M ? ?. This is similar to what was done in [30] to prove a central limit theorem for a density plug-in estimator of entropy. Our analysis for the ensemble estimator of divergence is more complicated since we are dealing with a functional of two densities and a weighted ensemble of estimators. In fact, some of the equations we use to prove Theorem 2 can be used to prove a central limit theorem for a weighted ensemble of entropy estimators such as that given in [3]. 3.1 Proof Sketch of Theorem 2 The full proof is included in the supplemental material. We use the following lemma from [30, 31]: Lemma 3. Let the random variables {YM,i }N i=1 belong to a zero mean, unit variance, interchange2 2 able process for all values of M . Assume that Cov(YM,1 , YM,2 ) and Cov(YM,1 , YM,2 ) are O(1/M ). Then the random variable ! v "N # u N u X X t S = Y / Var Y (4) N,M M,i M,i i=1 i=1 converges in distribution to a standard normal random variable. This lemma is an extension of work by Blum et al [32] which showed that if {Zi ; i = 1, 2, . . . } PN is an interchangeable process with zero mean and unit variance, then SN = ?1N i=1 Zi converges to a standard normal random variable if and only if Cov [Z1 , Z2 ] = 0 and  in distribution  Cov Z21 , Z22 = 0. In other words, the central limit theorem holds if and only if the interchangeable process is uncorrelated and the squares are uncorrelated. Lemma 3 shows that for a correlated interchangeable process, a sufficient condition for a central limit theorem is for the interchangeable process and the squared process to be asymptotically uncorrelated with rate O(1/M ). ? k(l) := L ? k(l),k(l) . Define For simplicity, let M1 = M2 = M and L   hP  i P ? ? l?? l w(l)g Lk(l) (Xi ) ? E l?? l w(l)g Lk(l) (Xi ) r . YM,i = hP  i ? Var l?? l w(l)g Lk(l) (Xi ) Then from Eq. 4, we have that SN,M h i r h i ? ? ?w . = Gw ? E Gw / Var G  2 2 Thus it is sufficient to show from Lemma 3 that Cov(YM,1 , YM,2 ) and Cov(YM,1 , YM,2 ) are O(1/M ). To do this, it is necessary to show that the denominator of YM,i converges to a nonzero constant or to zero sufficiently slowly. It is also necessary to show that the covariance of the numerator to bound Cov(YM,1 , YM,2 ), we require bounds on the quantity h is O(1/M ).  Therefore,  i ? ? Cov g Lk(l) (Xi ) , g Lk(l0 ) (Xj ) where l, l0 ? ?l.   ? k(l) (Z) := L ? k(l) (Z) ? EZ L ? k(l) (Z) , and e ?i,k(l) (Z) := ?fi,k(l) (Z) ? Define M(Z) := Z ? EZ, F   ? k(l) (Z) around EZ ?fi,k(l) (Z). Assuming g is sufficiently smooth, a Taylor series expansion of g L ? k(l) (Z) gives EZ L   ? k(l) (Z)   ??1 (?) X g (i) EZ L ? k(l) (Z) = ? i (Z) + g (?Z ) F ? ? (Z), F g L k(l) k(l) i! ?! i=0 5   ? k(l) (Z), F ? k(l) (Z) . We use this expansion to bound the covariance. The exwhere ?Z ? EZ F pected value of the terms containing the derivatives of g is controlled by assuming that the densities ? q (Z) are lower bounded. By assuming the densities are sufficiently smooth, an expression for F k(l) ?1,k(l) and e ?2,k(l) is obtained by exin terms of powers and products of the density error terms e ? k(l) (Z) around EZ ?f1,k(l) (Z) and EZ ?f2,k(l) (Z) and applying the binomial theorem. The panding L expected value of products of these density error terms is bounded by applying concentration in? q (Z) terms is bounded equalities and conditional independence. Then the covariance between F k(l) by bounding the covariance between powers and products of the density error terms by applying Cauchy-Schwarz and other concentration inequalities. This gives the following lemma which is proved in the supplemental material. ? Lemma 4. Let l, l0 ? ?l be fixed, M1 = M2 = M , and k(l) = l M . Let ?1 (x), ?2 (x) be arbitrary functions with 1 partial derivative wrt x and supx |?i (x)| < ?, i = 1, 2 and let 1{?} be the indicator function. Let Xi and Xj be realizations of the density f2 independent of ?f1,k(l) , ?f1,k(l0 ) , ?f2,k(l) , and ?f2,k(l0 ) and independent of each other when i 6= j. Then i o(1), h i=j q r ? ?   Cov ?1 (Xi )Fk(l) (Xi ), ?2 (Xj )Fk(l0 ) (Xj ) = 1 1 1{q,r=1} c8 (?1 (x), ?2 (x)) M + o M , i 6= j. ? Note  that k(l) is required to grow with M for Lemma 4 to hold. Define hl,g (X) = ? k(l) (X) . Lemma 4 can then be used to show that g EX L i    h  ))] + o(1), i = j ? k(l0 ) (Xj ) = E [M (hl,g (Xi )) M (hl0 ,g (X ? k(l) (Xi ) , g L  i  Cov g L 1 1 c8 (hl,g0 (x), hl0 ,g0 (x)) M +o M , i 6= j. 2 2 , assume WLOG that i = 1 and j = 2. Then for l, l0 , j, j 0 we and YM,j For the covariance of YM,i need hto bound   the term          i ? k(l) (X1 ) M g L ? k(l0 ) (X1 ) , M g L ? k(j) (X2 ) M g L ? k(j 0 ) (X2 ) Cov M g L . (5) For the case where l = l0 and j = j 0 , we can simply apply the previous results to the functional 2 d(x) = (M (g(x))) . For the more general case, we need to show that   h i ? s (X1 )F ? q 0 (X1 ), ?2 (X2 )F ? t (X2 )F ? r 0 (X2 ) = O 1 . Cov ?1 (X1 )F (6) k(l) k(j) k(j ) k(l ) M To do this, bounds are required on the covariance of up to eight distinct density error terms. Previous results can be applied by using Cauchy-Schwarz when the sum of the exponents of the density error terms is greater than or equal to 4. When the sum is equal to 3, we use the fact that k(l) = O(k(l0 )) combined with Markov?s inequality to obtain a bound of O (1/M ). Applying Eq. 6 to the term in Eq. 5 gives the required bound to apply Lemma 3. 3.2 Broad Implications of Theorem 2 To the best of our knowledge, Theorem 2 provides the first results on the asymptotic distribution of an f -divergence estimator with MSE convergence rate of O (1/T ) under the setting of a finite number of samples from two unknown, non-parametric distributions. This enables us to perform inference tasks on the class of f -divergences (defined with smooth functions g) on smooth, strictly lower bounded densities with finite support. Such tasks include hypothesis testing and constructing a confidence interval on the error exponents of the Bayes probability of error for a classification problem. This greatly increases the utility of these divergence estimators. Although we focused on a specific divergence estimator, we suspect that our approach of showing that the components of the estimator and their squares are asymptotically uncorrelated can be adapted to derive central limit theorems for other divergence estimators that satisfy similar assumptions (smooth g, and smooth, strictly lower bounded densities with finite support). We speculate that this would be easiest for estimators that are also based on k-nearest neighbors such as in [8] and [18]. It is also possible that the approach can be adapted to other plug-in estimator approaches such as in [24] and [25]. However, the qualitatively different convex optimization approach of divergence estimation in [23] may require different methods. 6 Figure 1: Q-Q plot comparing quantiles from the normalized weighted ensemble estimator of the KL divergence (vertical axis) to the quantiles from the standard normal distribution (horizontal axis). The red line shows . The linearity of the Q-Q plot points validates the central limit theorem, Theorem. 2, for the estimator. 4 Experiments We first apply the weighted ensemble estimator of divergence to simulated data to verify the central limit theorem. We then use the estimator to obtain confidence intervals on the error exponents of the Bayes probability of error for the Iris data set from the UCI machine learning repository [33, 34]. 4.1 Simulation To verify the central limit theorem of the ensemble method, we estimated the KL divergence between two truncated normal densities restricted to the unit cube. The densities have means ? ?1 = 0.7 ? ?1d , ? ?2 = 0.3 ? ? 1d and covariance matrices ?i Id where ?1 = 0.1, ?2 = 0.3, ?1d is a d-dimensional vector of ones, and Id is a d-dimensional identity matrix. We show the Q-Q plot of the normalized optimally weighted ensemble estimator of the KL divergence with d = 6 and 1000 samples from each density in Fig. 1. The linear relationship between the quantiles of the normalized estimator and the standard normal distribution validates Theorem 2. 4.2 Probability of Error Estimation Our ensemble divergence estimator can be used to estimate a bound on the Bayes probability of error [7]. Suppose we have two classes C1 or C2 and a random observation x. Let the a priori class probabilities be w1 = P r(C1 ) > 0 and w2 = P r(C2 ) = 1 ? w1 > 0. Then f1 and f2 are the densities corresponding to the classes C1 and C2 , respectively. The Bayes decision rule classifies x as C1 if and only if w1 f1 (x) > w2 f2 (x). The Bayes error Pe? is the minimum average probability of error and is equivalent to ? ? Pe = min (P r(C1 |x), P r(C2 |x)) p(x)dx ? = min (w1 f1 (x), w2 f2 (x)) dx, (7) where p(x) = w1 f1 (x) + w2 f2 (x). For a, b > 0, we have min(a, b) ? a? b1?? , ?? ? (0, 1). Replacing the minimum function in Eq. 7 with this bound gives ? Pe? ? w1? w21?? c? (f1 ||f2 ), (8) where c? (f1 ||f2 ) = f1? (x)f21?? (x)dx is the Chernoff ?-coefficient. The Chernoff coefficient is found by choosing the value of ? that minimizes the right hand side of Eq. 8: ? ? c (f1 ||f2 ) = c?? (f1 ||f2 ) = min f1? (x)f21?? (x)dx. ??(0,1) ? Thus if ? = arg min??(0,1) c? (f1 ||f2 ), an upper bound on the Bayes error is ? ? Pe? ? w1? w21?? c? (f1 ||f2 ). 7 (9) Estimated Confidence Interval QDA Misclassification Rate Setosa-Versicolor (0, 0.0013) 0 Setosa-Virginica (0, 0.0002) 0 Versicolor-Virginica (0, 0.0726) 0.04 Table 1: Estimated 95% confidence intervals for the bound on the pairwise Bayes error and the misclassification rate of a QDA classifier with 5-fold cross validation applied to the Iris dataset. The right endpoint of the confidence intervals is nearly zero when comparing the Setosa class to the other two classes while the right endpoint is much higher when comparing the Versicolor and Virginica classes. This is consistent with the QDA performance and the fact that the Setosa class is linearly separable from the other two classes. Equation 9 includes the form in Eq. 1 (g(x) = x? ). Thus we can use the optimally weighted ensemble estimator described in Sec. 2 to estimate a bound on the Bayes error. In practice, we estimate c? (f1 ||f2 ) for multiple values of ? (e.g. 0.01, 0.02, . . . , 0.99) and choose the minimum. We estimated a bound on the pairwise Bayes error between the three classes (Setosa, Versicolor, and Virginica) in the Iris data set [33, 34] and used bootstrapping to calculate confidence intervals. We compared the bounds to the performance of a quadratic discriminant analysis classifier (QDA) with 5-fold cross validation. The pairwise estimated 95% confidence intervals and the misclassification rates of the QDA are given in Table 1. Note that the right endpoint of the confidence interval is less than 1/50 when comparing the Setosa class to either of the other two classes. This is consistent with the performance of the QDA and the fact that the Setosa class is linearly separable from the other two classes. In contrast, the right endpoint of the confidence interval is higher when comparing the Versicolor and Virginica classes which are not linearly separable. This is also consistent with the QDA performance. Thus the estimated bounds provide a measure of the relative difficulty of distinguishing between the classes, even though the small number of samples for each class (50) limits the accuracy of the estimated bounds. 5 Conclusion In this paper, we established the asymptotic normality for a weighted ensemble estimator of f divergence using d-dimensional truncated k-nn density estimators. To the best of our knowledge, this gives the first results on the asymptotic distribution of an f -divergence estimator with MSE convergence rate of O (1/T ) under the setting of a finite number of samples from two unknown, nonparametric distributions. Future work includes simplifying the constants in front of the convergence rates given in [1] for certain families of distributions, deriving Berry-Esseen bounds on the rate of distributional convergence, extending the central limit theorem to other divergence estimators, and deriving the nonasymptotic distribution of the estimator. Acknowledgments This work was partially supported by NSF grant CCF-1217880 and a NSF Graduate Research Fellowship to the first author under Grant No. F031543. References [1] K. R. Moon and A. O. Hero III, ?Ensemble estimation of multivariate f-divergence,? in IEEE International Symposium on Information Theory, pp. 356?360, 2014. [2] K. Sricharan and A. O. Hero III, ?Ensemble weighted kernel estimators for multivariate entropy estimation,? in Adv. Neural Inf. Process. Syst., pp. 575?583, 2012. [3] K. Sricharan, D. Wei, and A. O. Hero III, ?Ensemble estimators for multivariate entropy estimation,? IEEE Trans. on Inform. Theory, vol. 59, no. 7, pp. 4374?4388, 2013. [4] I. Csiszar, ?Information-type measures of difference of probability distributions and indirect observations,? Studia Sci. Math. Hungar., vol. 2, pp. 299?318, 1967. [5] S. Kullback and R. A. Leibler, ?On information and sufficiency,? The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 79?86, 1951. [6] A. R?nyi, ?On measures of entropy and information,? in Fourth Berkeley Sympos. on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, pp. 547?561, 1961. 8 [7] T. M. Cover and J. A. Thomas, Elements of Information Theory. John Wiley & Sons, 2006. [8] B. P?czos and J. G. Schneider, ?On the estimation of alpha-divergences,? in International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, pp. 609?617, 2011. [9] J. B. Oliva, B. P?czos, and J. Schneider, ?Distribution to distribution regression,? in International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 1049?1057, 2013. [10] I. S. Dhillon, S. Mallela, and R. Kumar, ?A divisive information theoretic feature clustering algorithm for text classification,? The Journal of Machine Learning Research, vol. 3, pp. 1265?1287, 2003. [11] H. Peng, F. Long, and C. Ding, ?Feature selection based on mutual information criteria of maxdependency, max-relevance, and min-redundancy,? Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, IEEE Transactions on, vol. 27, no. 8, pp. 1226?1238, 2005. [12] B. Chai, D. Walther, D. Beck, and L. Fei-Fei, ?Exploring functional connectivities of the human brain using multivariate information analysis,? in Adv. Neural Inf. Process. Syst., pp. 270?278, 2009. [13] J. Lewi, R. Butera, and L. Paninski, ?Real-time adaptive information-theoretic optimization of neurophysiology experiments,? in Adv. Neural Inf. Process. Syst., pp. 857?864, 2006. [14] E. Schneidman, W. Bialek, and M. J. Berry, ?An information theoretic approach to the functional classification of neurons,? in Adv. Neural Inf. Process. Syst., pp. 197?204, 2002. [15] K. M. Carter, R. Raich, and A. O. Hero III, ?On local intrinsic dimension estimation and its applications,? Signal Processing, IEEE Transactions on, vol. 58, no. 2, pp. 650?663, 2010. [16] A. O. Hero III, B. Ma, O. J. Michel, and J. Gorman, ?Applications of entropic spanning graphs,? Signal Processing Magazine, IEEE, vol. 19, no. 5, pp. 85?95, 2002. [17] K. R. Moon and A. O. Hero III, ?Ensemble estimation of multivariate f-divergence,? CoRR, vol. abs/1404.6230, 2014. [18] Q. Wang, S. R. Kulkarni, and S. Verd?, ?Divergence estimation for multidimensional densities via knearest-neighbor distances,? IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, vol. 55, no. 5, pp. 2392?2405, 2009. [19] G. A. Darbellay, I. Vajda, et al., ?Estimation of the information by an adaptive partitioning of the observation space,? IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, vol. 45, no. 4, pp. 1315?1321, 1999. [20] Q. Wang, S. R. Kulkarni, and S. Verd?, ?Divergence estimation of continuous distributions based on data-dependent partitions,? IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, vol. 51, no. 9, pp. 3064?3074, 2005. [21] J. Silva and S. S. Narayanan, ?Information divergence estimation based on data-dependent partitions,? Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, vol. 140, no. 11, pp. 3180?3198, 2010. [22] T. K. Le, ?Information dependency: Strong consistency of Darbellay?Vajda partition estimators,? Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, vol. 143, no. 12, pp. 2089?2100, 2013. [23] X. Nguyen, M. J. Wainwright, and M. I. Jordan, ?Estimating divergence functionals and the likelihood ratio by convex risk minimization,? IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, vol. 56, no. 11, pp. 5847?5861, 2010. [24] S. Singh and B. P?czos, ?Generalized exponential concentration inequality for R?nyi divergence estimation,? in International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 333?341, 2014. [25] A. Krishnamurthy, K. Kandasamy, B. P?czos, and L. Wasserman, ?Nonparametric estimation of R?nyi divergence and friends,? in International Conference on Machine Learning, vol. 32, 2014. [26] A. Berlinet, L. Devroye, and L. Gy?rfi, ?Asymptotic normality of L1 error in density estimation,? Statistics, vol. 26, pp. 329?343, 1995. [27] A. Berlinet, L. Gy?rfi, and I. D?nes, ?Asymptotic normality of relative entropy in multivariate density estimation,? Publications de l?Institut de Statistique de l?Universit? de Paris, vol. 41, pp. 3?27, 1997. [28] P. J. Bickel and M. Rosenblatt, ?On some global measures of the deviations of density function estimates,? The Annals of Statistics, pp. 1071?1095, 1973. [29] D. O. Loftsgaarden and C. P. Quesenberry, ?A nonparametric estimate of a multivariate density function,? The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, pp. 1049?1051, 1965. [30] K. Sricharan, R. Raich, and A. O. Hero III, ?Estimation of nonlinear functionals of densities with confidence,? IEEE Trans. Inform. 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Parallel Double Greedy Submodular Maximization Xinghao Pan1 Stefanie Jegelka1 Joseph Gonzalez1 Joseph Bradley1 Michael I. Jordan1,2 1 Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, and 2 Department of Statistics University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA USA 94720 {xinghao,stefje,jegonzal,josephkb,jordan}@eecs.berkeley.edu Abstract Many machine learning problems can be reduced to the maximization of submodular functions. Although well understood in the serial setting, the parallel maximization of submodular functions remains an open area of research with recent results [1] only addressing monotone functions. The optimal algorithm for maximizing the more general class of non-monotone submodular functions was introduced by Buchbinder et al. [2] and follows a strongly serial double-greedy logic and program analysis. In this work, we propose two methods to parallelize the double-greedy algorithm. The first, coordination-free approach emphasizes speed at the cost of a weaker approximation guarantee. The second, concurrency control approach guarantees a tight 1/2-approximation, at the quantifiable cost of additional coordination and reduced parallelism. As a consequence we explore the tradeoff space between guaranteed performance and objective optimality. We implement and evaluate both algorithms on multi-core hardware and billion edge graphs, demonstrating both the scalability and tradeoffs of each approach. 1 Introduction Many important problems including sensor placement [3], image co-segmentation [4], MAP inference for determinantal point processes [5], influence maximization in social networks [6], and document summarization [7] may be expressed as the maximization of a submodular function. The submodular formulation enables the use of targeted algorithms [2, 8] that offer theoretical worst-case guarantees on the quality of the solution. For several maximization problems of monotone submodular functions (satisfying F (A) ? F (B) for all A ? B), a simple greedy algorithm [8] achieves the optimal approximation factor of 1 ? 1e . The optimal result for the wider, important class of non-monotone functions ? an approximation guarantee of 1/2 ? is much more recent, and achieved by a double greedy algorithm by Buchbinder et al. [2]. While theoretically optimal, in practice these algorithms do not scale to large real world problems, since the inherently serial nature of the algorithms poses a challenge to leveraging advances in parallel hardware. This limitation raises the question of parallel algorithms for submodular maximization that ideally preserve the theoretical bounds, or weaken them gracefully, in a quantifiable manner. In this paper, we address the challenge of parallelization of greedy algorithms, in particular the double greedy algorithm, from the perspective of parallel transaction processing systems. This alternative perspective allows us to apply advances in database research ranging from fast coordination-free approaches with limited guarantees to sophisticated concurrency control techniques which ensure a direct correspondence between parallel and serial executions at the expense of increased coordination. We develop two parallel algorithms for the maximization of non-monotone submodular functions that operate at different points along the coordination tradeoff curve. We propose CF-2g as a coordinationfree algorithm and characterize the effect of reduced coordination on the approximation ratio. By bounding the possible outcomes of concurrent transactions we introduce the CC-2g algorithm which 1 guarantees serializable parallel execution and retains the optimality of the double greedy algorithm at the expense of increased coordination. The primary contributions of this paper are: 1. We propose two parallel algorithms for unconstrained non-monotone submodular maximization, which trade off parallelism and tight approximation guarantees. 2. We provide approximation guarantees for CF-2g and analytically bound the expected loss in objective value for set-cover with costs and max-cut as running examples. 3. We prove that CC-2g preserves the optimality of the serial double greedy algorithm and analytically bound the additional coordination overhead for covering with costs and max-cut. 4. We demonstrate empirically using two synthetic and four real datasets that our parallel algorithms perform well in terms of both speed and objective values. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Sec. 2 discusses the problem of submodular maximization and introduces the double greedy algorithm. Sec. 3 provides background on concurrency control mechanisms. We describe and provide intuition for our CF-2g and CC-2g algorithms in Sec. 4 and Sec. 5, and then analyze the algorithms both theoretically (Sec. 6) and empirically (Sec. 7). 2 Submodular Maximization A set function F : 2V ? R defined over subsets of a ground set V is submodular if it satisfies diminishing marginal returns: for all A ? B ? V and e ? / B, it holds that F (A ? {e}) ? F (A) ? F (B ? {e}) ? F (B). Throughout this paper, we will assume that F is nonnegative and F (?) = 0. Submodular functions have emerged in areas such as game theory [9], graph theory [10], combinatorial optimization [11], and machine learning [12, 13]. Casting machine learning problems as submodular optimization enables the use of algorithms for submodular maximization [2, 8] that offer theoretical worst-case guarantees on the quality of the solution. While those algorithms confer strong guarantees, their design is inherently serial, limiting their usability in large-scale problems. Recent work has addressed faster [14] and parallel [1, 15, 16] versions of the greedy algorithm by Nemhauser et al. [8] for maximizing monotone submodular functions that satisfy F (A) ? F (B) for any A ? B ? V . However, many important applications in machine learning lead to non-monotone submodular functions. For example, graphical model inference [5, 17], or trading off any submodular gain maximization with costs (functions of the form F (S) = G(S) ? ?M (S), where G(S) is monotone submodular and M (S) a linear (modular) cost function), such as for utility-privacy tradeoffs [18], require maximizing non-monotone submodular functions. For non-monotone functions, the simple greedy algorithm in [8] can perform arbitrarily poorly (see Appendix H.1 for an example). Intuitively, the introduction of additional elements with monotone submodular functions never decreases the objective while introducing elements with non-monotone submodular functions can decrease the objective to its minimum. For non-monotone functions, Buchbinder et al. [2] recently proposed an optimal double greedy algorithm that works well in a serial setting. In this paper, we study parallelizations of this algorithm. The serial double greedy algorithm. The serial double greedy algorithm of Buchbinder et al. [2] (Ser-2g, in Alg. 3) maintains two sets Ai ? B i . Initially, A0 = ? and B 0 = V . In iteration i, the set Ai?1 contains the items selected before item/iteration i, and B i?1 contains Ai and the items that are so far undecided. The algorithm serially passes through the items in V and determines online whether to keep item i (add to Ai ) or discard it (remove from B i ), based on a threshold that trades off the gain ?+ (i) = F (Ai?1 ? i) ? F (Ai?1 ) of adding i to the currently selected set Ai?1 , and the gain ?? (i) = F (B i?1 \ i) ? F (B i?1 ) of removing i from the candidate set, estimating its complementarity to other remaining elements. For any element ordering, this algorithm achieves a tight 1/2-approximation in expectation. 3 Concurrency Patterns for Parallel Machine Learning In this paper we adopt a transactional view of the program state and explore parallelization strategies through the lens of parallel transaction processing systems. We recast the program state (the sets A and B) as data, and the operations (adding elements to A and removing elements from B) as 2 transactions. More precisely we reformulate the double greedy algorithm (Alg. 3) as a series of exchangeable, Read-Write transactions of the form: ( [?+ (A,e)] (A ? e, B) if ue ? [?+ (A,e)] +[??+(B,e)] + + (1) Te (A, B) , (A, B\e) otherwise. The transaction Te is a function from the sets A and B to new sets A and B based on the element e ? V and the predetermined random bits ue for that element. By composing the transactions Tn (Tn?1 (. . . T1 (?, V ))) we recover the serial double-greedy algorithm defined in Alg. 3. In fact, any ordering of the serial composition of the transactions recovers a permuted execution of Alg. 3 and therefore the optimal approximation algorithm. However, this raises the question: is it possible to apply transactions in parallel? If we execute transactions Ti and Tj , with i 6= j, in parallel we need a method to merge the resulting program states. In the context of the double greedy algorithm, we could define the parallel execution of two transactions as: Ti (A, B) + Tj (A, B) , (Ti (A, B)A ? Tj (A, B)A , Ti (A, B)B ? Tj (A, B)B ) , (2) the union of the resulting A and the intersection of the resulting B. While we can easily generalize Eq. (2) to many parallel transactions, we cannot always guarantee that the result will correspond to a serial composition of transactions. As a consequence, we cannot directly apply the analysis of Buchbinder et al. [2] to derive strong approximation guarantees for the parallel execution. Fortunately, several decades of research [19, 20] in database systems have explored efficient parallel transaction processing. In this paper we adopt a coordinated bounds approach to parallel transaction processing in which parallel transactions are constructed under bounds on the possible program state. If the transaction could violate the bound then it is processed serially on the server. By adjusting the definition of the bound we can span a space of coordination-free to serializable executions. Algorithm 1: Generalized transactions 1 2 3 4 5 6 Algorithm 2: Commit transaction i for p ? {1, . . . , P } do in parallel while ? element to process do e = next element to process (ge , i) = requestGuarantee(e) ?i = propose(e, ge ) commit(e, i, ?i ) // Non-blocking 1 2 3 4 5 wait until ?j < i, processed(j) = true Atomically if ?i = FAIL then // Deferred proposal ?i = propose(e, S) // Advance the program state S ? ?i (S) Figure 1: Algorithm for generalized transactions. Each transaction requests its position i in the commit ordering, as well as the bounds ge that are guaranteed to hold when it commits. Transactions are also guaranteed to be committed according to the given ordering. In Fig. 1 we describe the coordinated bounds transaction pattern. The clients (Alg. 1), in parallel, construct and commit transactions under bounded assumptions about the program state S (i.e., the sets A and B). Transactions are constructed by requesting the latest bound ge on S at logical time i and computing a change ?i to S (e.g., Add e to A). If the bound is insufficient to construct the transaction then ?i = FAIL is returned. The client then sends the proposed change ?i to the server to be committed atomically and proceeds to the next element without waiting for a response. The server (Alg. 2) serially applies the transactions advancing the program state (i.e., adding elements to A or removing elements from B). If the bounds were insufficient and the transaction failed at the client (i.e., ?i = FAIL) then the server serially reconstructs and applies the transaction under the true program state. Moreover, the server is responsible for deriving bounds, processing transactions in the logical order i, and producing the serializable output ?n (?n?1 (. . . ?1 (S))). This model achieves a high degree of parallelism when the cost of constructing the transaction dominates the cost of applying the transaction. For example, in the case of submodular maximization, the cost of constructing the transaction depends on evaluating the marginal gains with respect to changes in A and B while the cost of applying the transaction reduces to setting a bit. It is also essential that only a few transactions fail at the client. Indeed, the analysis of these systems focuses on ensuring that the majority of the transactions succeed. 3 Algorithm 3: Ser-2g: serial double greedy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 0 A = ?, B = V for i = 1 to n do ?+ (i) = F (Ai?1 ? i) ? F (Ai?1 ) ?? (i) = F (B i?1 \i) ? F (B i?1 ) Draw ui ? U nif (0, 1) [?+ (i)] if ui < ? (i) + ?+ (i) then [ + ]+ [ ? ]+ Ai := Ai?1 ? i; B i := B i?1 else A := A i 8 i?1 i ; B := B i?1 \i Algorithm 4: CF-2g: coord-free double greedy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 b = ?, B b=V A for p ? {1, . . . , P } do in parallel while ? element to process do e = next element to process be = A; b B be = B b A max b be ) ?+ (e) = F (Ae ? e) ? F (A max b b ?? (e) = F (Be \e) ? F (Be ) Draw ue ? U nif (0, 1) [?max (e)] + if ue < [?max (e)]++ +[?max then (e)]+ + ? b A(e) ? 1 10 b else B(e) ?0 11 Algorithm 5: CC-2g: concurrency control 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 b=A e = ?, B b=B e=V A for i = 1, . . . , |V | do processed(i) = f alse ?=0 for p ? {1, . . . , P } do in parallel while ? element to process do e = next element to process be , A ee , B be , B ee , i) = getGuarantee(e) (A be , A ee , B be , B ee ) (result, ue ) = propose(e, A commit(e, i, ue , result) 4 Algorithm 6: CC-2g getGuarantee(e) 1 2 3 4 5 e e A(e) ? 1; B(e) ?0 i = ?; ? ? ? + 1 be = A; b B be = B b A e e e e Ae = A; Be = B b e be , B ee , i) return (Ae , Ae , B Algorithm 7: CC-2g propose 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 e e ?min + (e) = F (Ae ) ? F (Ae \e) max b be ) ?+ (e) = F (Ae ? e) ? F (A min e e ?? (e) = F (Be ) ? F (Be ? e) b b ?max ? (e) = F (Be \e) ? F (Be ) Draw ue ? U nif (0, 1) if ue < [?min + (e)]+ max (e)] [?min + + (e)]+ +[?? result ? 1 else if ue > then [?max (e)]+ + [?max (e)]+ +[?min + ? (e)]+ then result ? ?1 else result ? FAIL return (result, ue ) Algorithm 8: CC-2g: commit(e, i, ue , result) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 wait until ?j < i, processed(j) = true if result = FAIL then b b ?exact + (e) = F (A ? e) ? F (A) b b (e) = F ( B\e) ? F ( B) ?exact ? if ue < [?exact + (e)]+ exact [?exact (e)] + +[?? (e)]+ + then result ? 1 else result ? ?1 b e if result = 1 then A(e) ? 1; B(e) ?1 e b else A(e) ? 0; B(e) ?0 processed(i) = true Coordination-Free Double Greedy Algorithm The coordination-free approach attempts to reduce the need to coordinate guarantees and the logical ordering. This is achieved by operating on potentially stale states: the transaction guarantee reduces to requiring ge be a stale version of S, and the logical ordering is implicitly defined by the time of commit. In using these weak guarantees, CF-2g is overly optimistically assuming that concurrent transactions are independent, which could potentially lead to erroneous decisions. Alg. 4 is the coordination-free parallel double greedy algorithm.1 CF-2g closely resembles the serial Ser-2g, but the elements e ? V are no longer processed in a fixed order. Thus, the sets A, B are b B, b where A b is a subset of the true A and replaced by potentially stale local estimates (bounds) A, b B is a superset of the actual B on each iteration. These bounding sets allow us to compute bounds max ?max which approximate ?+ , ?? from the serial algorithm. We now formalize this idea. + , ?? To analyze the CF-2g algorithm we order the elements e ? V according to the commit time (i.e., when Alg. 4 line 8 is executed). Let ?(e) be the position of e in this total ordering on elements. This 1 We present only the parallelized probabilistic versions of [2]. Both parallel algorithms can be easily extended to the deterministic version of [2]; CF-2g can also be extended to the multilinear version of [2]. 4 4 = F(0, (B1) \i) F (B ) 1735167 Draw ui ?(i) U nif 5 Draw u4: ?CF-2g: U nif (0,coord-free 1) Algorithm double [ i + (i) ]+ (i) [ + ]+then if ui < (i) +[ (i)] ? 6? = ;, if u < then [ ] + i= 169 1 A B V + 175 [ (i)]+ + [+ (i)i]+ 1 i i 1 + i 170 7 A A 1do:= i p 2:={1, . ,[A Pi;i}B inBB parallel 7 Ai. .:= [ i; := B i 1 176 170 2 for 171 i ielement 1 i to process i 1 while 9 do i i := 1 Bi 8171 3 else A := A ; B \i 8 else A := A ; B := B i 1 \i 177 168 174 168 6 169 min ? B ?(e) ? F (B ?e ) A?e3 = A; B e == ?e [ e) F (B ?e ) (e) = F (Be \e) F (B 5 Draw u nif (0, 1) e ? Upropose Algorithm 7: CC-2g Algorithm 7: CC-2g propose [ min + (e)]+ min 6 if u < ?e ) ?min min= Fe (A F (e)] (A?e \e) ? max (e)] then + (e) [ +[ 4 ?e , A?e , B ? ,B ? i) 5 return (A greedy ?ee,,B ?e?, i) 5 return max (A?e , A?ee, B 4 1 1 + (e) = F (A+e ) F+ (Ae \e) + max max ? 172 2 (e) (A?Fe ([A?e) e = next element to process 7+ = + 172 4 2 (e)Fresult = e)F (A Fe()A?e ) e [1 162 min min 178 162 ? ? max Algorithm Algorithm 3: Seq-2g: Sequential double greedy 6: CC-2g getGuarantee(e) max 173 ? ? ?e )F (B (e) = (BFe )(CC-2g [[?ee) 173 5 = F (A [serial e) double F (A) 3 Algorithm (e)F= B Fe(B [ e)(e)]+ 163 + + (e) coord-free 3: Ser-2g: greedy 3 getGuarantee(e) Algorithm 4:Algorithm CF-2g: greedy else if 6: > then 0 0 4: CF-2g: coord-free greedy max 8 max?(e)] +[ min (e)] ?0 ? double ?uFee\e) max= F (B 1 A = ;, B = V [ F 174 179 174 163Algorithm 1; B(e) 0 double ? ?+e ) 4 (e) ( B ) + 164 0max 1 A(e) ? ? e + 4 (e) = ( B \e) F ( B ? ? e0 6 164 = F ( B\e) F ( B) 1 A = ;,(e) B = V 1 A(e) 1; B(e) 2 for i = 1 to n do ? = ;, 2 i = ?; ? ?+1 ?= ? 1175 A B = V 9 result 1 180 5 Draw u ? U nif (0, 1) 1 A ;, B = V 165 175 e 5 Draw u ? U nif (0, 1) 2 for i = u 1 eto? n do 2 i = ?; ? e ? + 1 i 1 1 7 i 165 U?nif (0, 1) 3 [ i) F (A ) {1,p. .2Draw ?1parallel ? + (i) = F (A min iB 3(i) A;in =i)B P }.+.do in parallel e }= e[ [ min 22 for . ,A?P (e)]+ 0 3 A = Fdo (A F (Ai 1 ) 0 0 3 . ,{1, ?e =else ? B ?result ?(e)] 166 + [B + + 176 1812 fori p1166 [ max (e)]+ A; e = 10 f ail then + Add A! Add A! 6 if u 6 eAdd if< ue[ A! < then 4 (i) = F (B i 1 \i) 3176 F (B8 while ) min max max (e)] min (e)] ? ? ? ? iB 1 = B i 1 if u < then [ (e)] 9 element to process do 3 while 9 element to process do 4 A = A; max max e e F (B e\i) + +[ (e)]+ + + +[ 4 (i)[ = F (B(e)]+ ) ? ? ? ? += + 167 (e)] +[ 4 A = A; B B + e e 177 177 + 11 return (result, ue ) 167 5 Draw ui ? U nif (0,182 1) 4 ? ? ? ? 4 e =5 next e = next element to process 7 result 1 element to process 7 result 1 Draw u ? U nif (0, 1) i 5 return (Ae , Ae , Be , Be , i) u ? ? ? ? 168 ui Uncertainty ! u ? 5 return ( A , A , B , B , i) e (i) e e e e A(e) ? 1[ +?(e)] ? [ 178 ]183 + 178 9 168 emax max max + ? [ (e)] (e)]+ (e) (A [Fe) +(A) F (A) 6 if ui < [ max + + 5 then 5 (e)if+=uiF e) 169 + <(A=[F then +[ (i)]179 8 if else if> then [ + (i)]+179 169 +6 8 else ueAlgorithm then max (e)] +[ min (e)] (e)] + [ + (e)0]+?+[7: CC-2g min (e)] B!ue[ >max [ (e)] max ?(e) CC-2g: i, ue , result) Rem. B! + + Algorithm +[propose 1 Rem. + ? propose + +8: 184 1 Rem. B!i 1max + commit(e, 10 i 61 else B(e) i 1 i6 ? ? = F ( B\e) F ( B) + Algorithm 7: CC-2g 170 (e) = F (B\e) F (B) 7 A := A [ i; B 180 := B 170 7 9 result 1 min 9 result 1 180 ? ? 7 Draw u ? U nif (0, 1) min e 1U nif (e) =[Fi;(A Fi(A1e \e) i + (0, i 1) 1 ?e )8j F ?i,e \e) 171 185 7 i 1 171 Draw u ? 1+ wait until < processed(j) = true ei ):= B i i 1 i e 1 (e) = F ( A ( A 8 A := A B max 8 else(a) A Ser-2g := A ; B :=181 B \i (b) CF-2g (c)fCC-2g [ + (e)] max max 10 result else result f= 181 ?e+[ ie)1 F (e)] ?eail ail 172 (e) (A?e ) 10 else 2max result f e) ail then 8 if u <if ue 2< [i[++max then i = 1+ F i(Amax 2 =F (A [ F (A?e ) 1868182 172 + if(e) +[ := Bthen (e)] \i 9 := A(e)] ;B maxA max e + + 11 return (result, ue ) [ else (e)] (e)] min + +[ concurrency min exact ?e+) F + ?econtrol Algorithm 5: +3 CC-2g: 11 return (result, u ) 182 ? ?e ([A 173 ?e)[ e) F (A) ? e (e) = F ( B ( B [ e) 173 3 (e) = F ( B ) = F (B 3 F ? + e(e) 9 A(e) 1 187 ? Algorithm 4: CF-2g: coord-free double greedy 9183 A(e) 1 max (e) = F (aB?ethreshold max ?e based Figure 2: Illustration183of algorithms. (a) Ser-2g on4 the true ? ?e \e)?+ ?e?)? , and 174 174 4 computes \e) F (B ) exact (e) =values F (B F,(B ? ? ? ? ? 1 A = A = ;, B = B = V 4 (e) = F ( B\e) F ( B) Algorithm 4: CF-2g: coord-free double greedy ?Draw ue0 ? U nif (0, 1) Algorithm 8: commit(e, ?= ? = V based188 e , result) 184 10 else 5B(e) 1 A B 5 Draw u ? CF-2g U nifCC-2g: (0, 1) 175 175 e 8: ?uniform chooses an;,action aB(e) random umin (b) approximates CC-2g: commit(e, i, ui,e ,uresult) i against the threshold. 184 by 10 comparing [ exact 2 for else i =1 1, |V do processed(i) = f alse Algorithm + ? 0=| V + (e)] 2 for p 2 {1, . . . , P } do in parallel [ <min [ + (e)]+ A? .=. .;,, B + 185 + 1 wait 8j i,(e)] processed(j) =exact true 189 176 176 5ue until if u < then result 1 b b e processed(j) exact 6 until if < then 6 if ue < the then min max 185 [ (e)] +[ (e)] min max the threshold based on stale possibly choosing wrong action. (c) CC-2g computes two thresholds A, B, 1 wait 8j < i, = true [ + (e)]+ +[ + = 0 2 for p 2 {1, . . . , P }[ do (e)] (e)]+ 3 while 9 element to process do3 ?177 parallel + +[ + in 2 if result = f ail then+ (e)]+ + 186 177 190 7 possible 1 choose 2is ifnot result =exact f ail then 3 {1, .while 9} element toparallel process do where 4 on the e = next element toB, process 7,uncertainty result 1region 186A, based bounds on which defines an it to the correct 6 result else result 1 5: CC-2g: concurrency control 4 forAlgorithm p 2 . . P do in ? ? 3 F[ (max A [ e) F 178 178 187 exact + (e) = ? Algorithm max max 45: CC-2g: e = concurrency next element to process ? (A) ? [ e) ? while +F (A) [control (e)]+ 191 3 = Fmax (AFAILS [+?e)(e)]min 5 locally. + (e) =random F (A A) + interval 5F (179 element process + exact action If the value u?e =falls inside the than transaction and 187 8 else if(e) u ?if?to e > ?then 1; B(e) 8??else uuncertainty > ?maxdo thenthe ? ? e?V 1 A A? =9 ;, B B = 4 (e)[ = F1(B\e) F (+must B) +[ (e)] 179 7 if result then A(e) 1 + 188 (e)]+ +[ min (e)]+ max += (e)] 5 ? A= exact e = A; Be =[ B ? ? + ? ? ? ? ? 6 (e) = F ( B\e) F ( B) exact F (B) 1 A A =otherwise ;, Be1,= V| do 6= 180 =. B element to?process 4all possible (e)global = F (1B\e) be recomputed serially by192 the server; the transaction states. 188 [ + (e)]+ 9 result 2 for i 6= .next .9,= |V processed(i) = Ff (alse max result 1 holds ?under 180 ? ? (e) = F ( A A exact 0; B(e) e [ e) e) 5 if u < then result 1 + 7 Draw ue ? U nif (0,2189 1) 8 else A(e) 0 e exact exact [ +(e)] (e)] for i 181 = f alse (e)]+ + ? processed(i) ? ,B ?e , i)?= + +[ 3 ?1,=. .0. ,(|V + max A?e|,do A ,max B getGuarantee(e) 189[ 193 10 ifelse ?e ) 181 5 u9 e result < [ exact[ FAIL then result 1 (e)]+ 7 10 eelse e result 7 (e) = F (Bf= \e) F (B eail (e)]+ processed(i) =1exact true + +[ 3190 ?max =(e)] 0182 8 if ue < [ max (e)]++ +[ then + (e)] 6 return else result 4+ for p 2 {1, . . . , P } do in parallel 11 (result, u ) e ?e , A?e , B ?e , B ? + 8 u ? U nifu(0, 11 Draw return (result, 182 190 1944191 e propose(e, e ) 1)A =to e ) parallel 6 e ) else result 1 ? for8 p 183 . . (result, . , P9}element dou in 52 {1, while process do ? [ max (e)]+ 9 A(e) 1 ? + 7 if result = 1 then A(e) 1; B(e) 1 183 9element if uprocess <u theni commit(e, i, , do result) 191 1955192 9 while max (e)] eelement 0 Algorithm 0 9 to [ emax (e)] 6 e = next to process + +[ + 8:?(e CC-2g: i, ue1, result) + ??0 ) <commit(e, 184 ordering allows sets A = {e : e ? A, i} ?where 7 if result = 1 then A(e) ?us to 0define monotonically non-decreasing Algorithm 8: CC-2g: commit(e, i, u , result) ? e 184 10 else B(e) 8 else A(e) 0; B(e) 1;0 B(e) ?to process 10 next A(e) 1 192 1966193 185 ?element ? ? ? i i 0 0 7 e = ( A , A , B , B , i) = getGuarantee(e) 1 wait until 8j < processed(j) true e e e e ? ? ?= A is the final returned set, and monotonically non-increasing sets = A {e0; : i,?(e ) 0? i}.= The 9 processed(i) true 185 8 else A(e) B(e) wait until 8j < i, processed(j) =B true ?11, A?e(result, ?e1,else ?ue ,)B(e) ?i) 2 if result = FAIL then 193 1977194 186 ?e , B ?e ) ,B B == getGuarantee(e) 8 (Ae A?e , A?e , B e = propose(e, i 2 if result f0can ail then 9 processed(i) true 186 exact= ? ? sets AAlgorithm , B i provide a serialization against which we compare CF-2g; in this serialization, Alg. 3 3 (e) = F ( A [ e) F ( A) + ?eF) (A) 187 5: CC-2g: concurrency 9 control i, exact ue , result) 194 198 ? 8195 (result, commit(e, ue ) =3 propose(e, A?e , FA?(eA?, B [?ee), B + (e) = 187 exact ?(e)?1188 ?(e)?1 ?(e)?1 ? ?(e)?1 ? 4 (e) =F F ((B B\e) F (B) computes ? (e) = F (A ? e) ? F (A ) and ? (e) = F (B \e) ? ). On exact 9 commit(e, i, u , result) ? ? ? ? ? ? e + ? 195 1 A = A = ;, B = B = V 4 (e) = F (B\e) control F (B) Algorithm 5: CC-2g: concurrency 188 [ exact (e)]+ 199 196 189 5 if ue < [ exact max [ exact 2 for i = 1, . . . , |V | do processed(i) alse ? 2?A b ;,, BB b=uee:B?<Alg. be ?++ +[e)exact be )result 1 + (e)]+ 197 = fversions 196 + (e)] ?if 189 the other hand, CF-2g uses computes ? (e) = ?(e)]F+(then A then result 1 F (A 1 A = A 5= e =[ Vexact4 exact (e)] + 200 stale (e)] +[ 190 + + 3 ? = 0 + 198 2 for i = 1, . . . , |V | do processed(i) = f alse 197 190 max else result 1 bein201 be ).3 ? = 0 6 4 for p 2(e) {1, .= . . ,F P }(do parallel 6 else result 1 and ? B \e) ? F191 (B ? while 199 191 (a) (b) (c) 5 9 element198 to process do 192 ? ? ? ? 4 for p 2 7{1, . . . , P } do in parallel if result = 1 then A(e) 1; B(e) 1 7 if result = 1 then A(e) 1; B(e) 1 202 200 6 e = next element 192 199 to process 193 5 while 9 element ? to process ? do 0 ?(e)?1 ?(e)?1 ? ? b b 8 else A(e) 0; B(e) 8 else A(e) 0; B(e) 0 ?e , B ? , i)that A194 The 7next lemma setsto for the serialization?s sets A ,B . 193 (A?e , A?e ,shows B =201 getGuarantee(e) e , Be6 are bounding e = next element process 200e203 9 processed(i) = true 9 processed(i) = true (a) (b) (c) ?e ,195 ?e7, B ?e ) b (A?b ?e , B ?e , i) = getGuarantee(e) 194 8 (result, ue ) = propose(e, A?e , B ,B 202 A Intuitively, the bounds because Ae , Be ,eA?eare stale versions of A?(e)?1 , B ?(e)?1 , which are 201 204hold 9 commit(e, i, ue , result) (a) (result, ue ) = propose(e, A?e , A?e , B?e , B (b) (c) ? 195 196 8 monotonically non-decreasing and non-increasing sets. Appendix Ae )gives a detailed proof. 202 205 203 9 commit(e, i, ue , result) 196 197 204 4 Coordination Free Double Greedy Algorithm 203 206 The 197 198 coordination-free approach attempts to reduce the need to coordinate guarantees and logical 205 ?(e)?1 204 207 199 be ? be ? on 198 ordering. is Free achieved by operating potentially stale states ? the guarantee reduces to requiring 4 Coordination Double Greedy Algorithm Lemma 4.1. In CF-2g, for ? coordination-free V ,This A A?(e)?1 , and B B . 206any e approach attempts to reduce the need to coordinate guarantees and logical 200The 199 205 208 g be a stale version of S, and logical ordering is implicitly defined by the time of commit. In using e 207 This is achieved by operating on potentially stale states ? the guarantee reduces to requiring 201ordering. 4 Coordination-Free Double Greedy Algorithm 200 206 209 The these weak guarantees, CF-2g is overly optimistically assuming that concurrent transactions are max max coordination-free approach attempts to reduce the need to? coordinate guarantees and logical 208 g be a stale version of S, and logical ordering is implicitly defined by?the? time commit. In using Corollary 4.2. Submodularity of F implies for CF-2g ? (e) ? ? (e), and (e) (e). e 202 + ? 201 + ? of (a)207 210 209 (b) (c) to erroneous independent, which could potentially lead decisions. ordering. This is achieved by operating on potentially stale states ? the guarantee reduces to requiring these weak guarantees, CF-2g is overly optimistically assuming that concurrent transactions are 203 202 coordination-free attempts toisreduce the need to coordinate guaranteescommit. and the logical 208 211 210 ge be204 aindependent, staleThe version of S,could and approach logical ordering implicitly defined by the In using which potentially lead topotentially erroneous decisions. 1 time ofguarantee ordering. This isthe achieved by parallel operating on stale states: this the transaction reduces 203 4tightness is the coordination free double greedy algorithm. CF-2g closely resembles the serial The error in CF-2g 209 depends onAlg. the of bounds in Cor. 4.2. We analyze in Sec. 6.1. these weak guarantees, CF-2g is overly optimistically assuming that concurrent transactions 205 to requiring g be a stale version of S, and the logical ordering is1 implicitly defined by the time of are 211 4 Coordination Free Double Greedy Algorithm 4 204 205 206 207 208 209 e Coordination 212 Freeindependent, Double Greedy Algorithm Alg. 4 is thethe coordination free greedyprocessed algorithm. inCF-2g closely resembles Seq-2g, but elements e 2parallel Vlead aretodouble no longer a fixed order. Thus, the theserial sets A, B are which could erroneous 206 210 commit. In usingpotentially these weak guarantees, CF-2g is decisions. overly optimistically assuming that concurrent Seq-2g, but the elements e 2?bounds? Vwhich are no longer a fixed order. Thus, the A sets A, B B area superset 213 212 replaced ?potentially ? processed ?toin ? is by potentially stale A, B, where A is a subset of the ?true? and transactions are independent, could lead erroneous decisions. 207 1 211 213 ? greedy ? where ? isthe Alg. attempts 4 is the coordination freestale parallel double algorithm. CF-2g closely serial The coordination-free214 approach to reduce the need to coordinate guarantees and by potentially ?bounds? A, B, A?logical is a subset of the ?true?resembles A and B a superset 208replaced 1 Concurrency for the Greedy Algorithm isDouble thestale coordination-free parallel double greedy algorithm. closely resembles theA, serial 212 Control ordering. This is achieved by operating onAlg. potentially the guarantee reduces to requiring 214 Seq-2g, the 4elements estates 2 V? are no longer processed in a fixedCF-2g order. Thus, the sets B are 1but 5 209 We present only parallelized probabilistic versions of [1]. Both parallel can be easily extended 215 and logical 1 Ser-2g, thethe elements e by 2 Vprobabilistic longer processed a fixed order. Thus,algorithms the B are ge be a stale version ordering is but implicitly defined the time of commit. using 213of S, 215 We present only the parallelized versions of [1].inBoth parallel algorithms cansets easily extended ?are ?nowhere ?beisA, replaced potentially stale ?bounds? A, B, A?be is In aextended subset of the A and B aA superset 210theby to deterministic version ofstale [1]; CF-2g can also to the multilinear version of [1]. ? are ? the ??true? replaced by potentially local estimates (bounds) A, B, where A is a subset of the true and these weak guarantees, CF-2g is overly optimistically assuming that concurrent transactions to the deterministic version of [1]; CF-2g can also be extended to multilinear version of [1]. 1 214 211 The concurrency control-based double algorithm is presented in Alg. andusclosely a superset of the actual ,BCC-2g, on each iteration. These bounding sets5, allow to compute bounds independent, which could potentially leadB?toisgreedy erroneous decisions. 1 210 We only the parallelized probabilistic versions of [1]. Both parallel algorithms can be easily extended 215 212presentmax max , which approximate from serial algorithm.control We now formalize this idea. follows the meta-algorithm of Alg. 1 and Alg. 2. Unlike inclosely CF-2g, thetheconcurrency mecha+, + 211 to parallel the213 deterministic version of [1]; 1CF-2g also be extended the multilinear version of [1]. Alg. 4 is the coordination free double greedy algorithm. CF-2gcan resembles theto serial 4 are not independent. 4they 212 nismsSeq-2g, of CC-2g ensure that concurrent transactions are serialized when but the elements e 2 V 214 are no longer processed in a fixed order. Thus, the sets A, B are 213 ? B, ? 1where ? is a of We present the parallelized probabilistic [2]. Both parallel algorithms can be easily extended replaced by potentially stale ?bounds? A? isonly a subset of the ?true? A andversions B superset 215 A, b A, eversion b ofB, e[2];which to the deterministic CF-2g can also4 beas extended to the multilinear of [2].on Serializability is achieved by maintaining sets A, B, serve upper and lowerversion bounds 1 We present only the parallelized probabilistic versions of [1]. Both parallel algorithms can be easily extended the true state of A and Bofat[1];commit Each thread can determine to the deterministic version CF-2g can time. also be extended to the multilinear version of [1]. locally if a decision to include 4 or exclude an element can be taken safely. Otherwise, the proposal is deferred to the commit process (Alg. 8) which waits until it is certain about A and B before proceeding. 4 214 215 The commit order is given by ?(e), which is the value of ? in line 2 of Alg. 5. We define A?(e)?1 , be , B be , A ee , and B ee be the sets that are returned by B ?(e)?1 as before with CF-2g. Additionally, let A 2 ?(e)?1 Alg. 6. Indeed, these sets are guaranteed to be bounds on A , B ?(e)?1 : be ? A?(e)?1 ? A ee \e, and B be ? B ?(e)?1 ? B ee ? e. Lemma 5.1. In CC-2g, ?e ? V , A e Intuitively, these bounds are maintained by recording potential effects of concurrent transactions in A, e b b B, and only recording the actual effects in A, B; we leave the full proof to Appendix A. Furthermore, b = A?(e)?1 and B b = B ?(e)?1 during commit. by committing transactions in order ?, we have A b = A?(e)?1 and B b = B ?(e)?1 . Lemma 5.2. In CC-2g, when committing element e, we have A 2 b B, b A, e and B e for each element. In practice, it For clarity, we present the algorithm as creating a copy of A, is more efficient to update and access them in shared memory. Nevertheless, our theorems hold for both settings. 5 Corollary 5.3. Submodularity of F implies that the ??s computed by CC-2g satisfy ?min + (e) ? exact max min exact max ?+ (e) = ?+ (e) ? ?+ (e) and ?? (e) ? ?? (e) = ?? (e) ? ?? (e). By using these bounds, CC-2g can determine when it is safe to construct the transaction locally. For failed transactions, the server is able to construct the correct transaction using the true program state. As a consequence we can guarantee that the parallel execution of CC-2g is serializable. 6 Analysis of Algorithms Our two algorithms trade off performance and strong approximation guarantees. The CF-2g algorithm emphasizes speed at the expense of the approximation objective. On the other hand, CC-2g emphasizes the tight 1/2-approximation at the expense of increased coordination. In this section we characterize the reduction in the approximation objective as well as the increased coordination. Our analysis connects the degradation in CC-2g scalability with the degradation in the CF-2g approximation factor via the maximum inter-processor message delay ? . 6.1 Approximation of CF-2g double greedy Theorem 6.1. Let F be a non-negative submodular function. CF-2g solves the unconstrained PN problem maxA?V F (A) with worst-case approximation factor E[F (ACF )] ? 21 F ? ? 14 i=1 E[?i ], where ACF is the output of the algorithm, F ? is the optimal value, and ?i = max{?max + (e) ? ?+ (e), ?max ? (e) ? ?? (e)} is the maximum discrepancy in the marginal gain due to the bounds. The proof (Appendix C) of Thm. 6.1 follows the structure in [2]. Thm. 6.1 captures the deviation from optimality as a function of width of the bounds which we characterize for two common applications. Example: max graph cut. For the max cut objective we bound the expected discrepancy in the marginal gain ?i in terms of the sparsity of the graph and the maximum inter-processor message delay ? . By applying Thm. 6.1 we obtain the approximation factor E[F (AN )] ? 12 F ? ? ? #edges 2N which 1 ? decreases linearly in both the message delays and graph density. In a complete graph, F = 2 #edges,  ? N ? 1 so E[F (A )] ? F 2 ? N , which makes it possible to scale ? linearly with N while retaining the same approximation factor. PL Example: set cover. Consider the simple set cover function, F (A) = l=1 min(1, |A ? Sl |) ? ?|A| = |{l : A ? Sl 6= ?}| ? ?|A|, with 0 < ? ? 1. We assume that there is some bounded delay P ? . Suppose also the ?Sl ?s form a partition, so each element e belongs to exactly one set. Then, e E[?e ] ? ? + L(1 ? ? ), which is linear in ? but independent of N . 6.2 Correctness of CC-2g Theorem 6.2. CC-2g is serializable and therefore solves the unconstrained submodular maximization problem maxA?V F (A) with approximation E[F (ACC )] ? 12 F ? , where ACC is the output of the algorithm, and F ? is the optimal value. The key challenge in the proof (Appendix B) of Thm. 6.2 is to demonstrate that CC-2g guarantees a serializable execution. It suffices to show that CC-2g takes the same decision as Ser-2g for each element ? locally if it is safe to do so, and otherwise deferring the computation to the server. As an immediate consequence of serializability, we recover the optimal approximation guarantees of the serial Ser-2g algorithm. 6.3 Scalability of CC-2g Whenever a transaction is reconstructed on the server, the server needs to wait for all earlier elements to be committed, and is also blocked from committing all later elements. Each failed transaction effectively constitutes a barrier to the parallel processing. Hence, the scalability of CC-2g is dependent on the number of failed transactions. We can directly bound the number of failed transactions (details in Appendix D) for both the max-cut and set cover example problems. For the max-cut problem with a maximum inter-processor message 6 delay ? we obtain the upper bound 2? #edges . Similarly for set cover the expected number of failed N transactions is upper-bounded by 2? . As a consequence, the coordination costs of CC-2g grows at the same rate as the reduction in accuracy of CF-2g. Moreover, the CC-2g algorithm will slow down in settings where the CF-2g algorithm produces sub-optimal solutions. 7 Evaluation We implemented the parallel and serial double greedy algorithms in Java / Scala. Experiments were conducted on Amazon EC2 using one cc2.8xlarge machine, up to 16 threads, for 10 repetitions. We measured the runtime and speedup (ratio of runtime on 1 thread to runtime on p threads). For CF-2g, we measured F (ACF ) ? F (ASer ), the difference between the objective value on the sets returned by CF-2g and Ser-2g. We verified the correctness of CC-2g by comparing the output of CC-2g with Ser-2g. We also measured the fraction of transactions that fail in CC-2g. Our parallel algorithms were tested on the max graph cut and set cover problems with two synthetic graphs and three real datasets (Table 1). We found that vertices were typically indexed such that nearby vertices in the graph were also close in their indices. To reduce this dependency, we randomly permuted the ordering of vertices. Graph # vertices # edges Description Erdos-Renyi 20,000,000 ZigZag 25,000,000 ? 2 ? 109 2,025,000,000 Friendster Arabic-2005 UK-2005 IT-2004 10,000,000 22,744,080 39,459,925 41,291,594 625,279,786 631,153,669 921,345,078 1,135,718,909 Each edge is included with probability 5 ? 10?6 . Expander graph. The 81-regular zig-zag product between the Cayley graph on Z2500000 with generating set {?1, . . . , ?5}, and the complete graph K10 . Subgraph of social network. [21] 2005 crawl of Arabic web sites [22, 23, 24]. 2005 crawl of the .uk domain [22, 23, 24]. 2004 crawl of the .it domain [22, 23, 24]. Table 1: Synthetic and real graphs used in the evaluation of our parallel algorithms. Speedup for Max Graph Cut 15 2.5 2 1.5 1 10 5 Ideal CC?2g, IT?2004 CF?2g, IT?2004 CC?2g, ZigZag CF?2g, ZigZag 10 5 0.5 5 10 # threads 0 0 15 5 (a) 2 4 Friendster Arabic?2005 UK?2005 IT?2004 ZigZag Erdos?Renyi 1 0 ?1 0 5 10 # threads (d) 5 10 # threads (b) x 10 3 0 0 15 15 CC?2g % Failed Txns Max Graph Cut x 10 3 2 0.015 Friendster Arabic?2005 UK?2005 IT?2004 ZigZag Erdos?Renyi 1 0 0 5 10 # threads (e) 15 (c) CF?2g % Decrease in F(A) Set Cover ?4 % decrease in F(A) 4 10 # threads % failed txns 0 0 CF?2g % Decrease in F(A) Max Graph Cut ?3 % decrease in F(A) Speedup for Set Cover 15 Ideal CC?2g, IT?2004 CF?2g, IT?2004 CC?2g, ZigZag CF?2g, ZigZag Speedup Ser?2g CC?2g CF?2g Speedup Runtime relative to sequential Runtime, relative to sequential 3 15 0.01 Friendster Arabic?2005 UK?2005 IT?2004 ZigZag Erdos?Renyi 0.005 0 0 5 10 # threads 15 (f) Figure 3: Experimental results. Fig. 3a ? runtime of the parallel algorithms as a ratio to that of the serial algorithm. Each curve shows the runtime of a parallel algorithm on a particular graph for a particular function F . Fig. 3b, 3c ? speedup (ratio of runtime on one thread to that on p threads). Fig. 3d, 3e ? % difference between objective values of Ser-2g and CF-2g, i.e. [F (ACF )/F (ASer ) ? 1] ? 100%. Fig. 3f ? percentage of transactions that fail in CC-2g on the max graph cut problem. We summarize of the key results here with more detailed experiments and discussion in Appendix G. Runtime, Speedup: Both parallel algorithms are faster than the serial algorithm with three or more threads, and show good speedup properties as more threads are added (? 10x or more for all graphs and both functions). Objective value: The objective value of CF-2g decreases with the number of threads, but differs from the serial objective value by less than 0.01%. Failed transactions: CC-2g fails more transactions as threads are added, but even with 16 threads, less than 0.015% transactions fail, which has negligible effect on the runtime / speedup. 7 Speed?up on EC2: Ring Set Cover Ring Set Cover 1 200 Ser?2g CC?2g CF?2g 150 100 Speed?up factor Runtime / s 250 CC?2g: Fraction of txns failed 15 Ideal CC?2g CF?2g 10 5 50 0 0 5 10 Number of threads 15 0 0 (a) 5 10 Number of threads (b) 15 1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 0.4 CC?2g: failed txns CC2F: F(A) decrease 5 10 Number of threads 15 0.2 CF?2g: Fraction of F(A) decrease Runtime on EC2: Ring Set Cover 300 0 (c) Figure 4: Experimental results for set cover problem on a ring expander graph demonstrating that for adversarially constructed inputs we can reduce the optimality of CF-2g and increase coordination costs for CC-2g. 7.1 Adversarial ordering To highlight the differences in approaches between the two parallel algorithms, we conducted experiments on a ring Cayley expander graph on Z106 with generating set {?1, . . . , ?1000}. The algorithms are presented with an adversarial ordering, without permutation, so vertices close in the ordering are adjacent to one another, and tend to be processed concurrently. This causes CF-2g to make more mistakes, and CC-2g to fail more transactions. While more sophisticated partitioning schemes could improve scalability and eliminate the effect of adversarial ordering, we use the default data partitioning in our experiments to highlight the differences between the two algorithms. As Fig. 4 shows, CC-2g sacrifices speed to ensure a serializable execution, eventually failing on > 90% of transactions. On the other hand, CF-2g focuses on speed, resulting in faster runtime, but achieves an objective value that is 20% of F (ASer ). We emphasize that we contrived this example to highlight differences between CC-2g and CF-2g, and we do not expect to see such orderings in practice. 8 Related Work Similar approach: Coordination-free solutions have been proposed for stochastic gradient descent [25] and collapsed Gibbs sampling [26]. More generally, parameter servers [27, 28] apply the CF approach to larger classes of problems. Pan et al. [29] applied concurrency control to parallelize some unsupervised learning algorithms. Similar problem: Distributed and parallel greedy submodular maximization is addressed in [1, 15, 16], but only for monotone functions. 9 Conclusion and Future Work By adopting the transaction processing model from parallel database systems, we presented two approaches to parallelizing the double greedy algorithm for unconstrained submodular maximization. We quantified the weaker approximation guarantee of CF-2g and the additional coordination of CC-2g, allowing one to trade off between performance and objective optimality. Our evaluation on large scale data demonstrates the scalability and tradeoffs of the two approaches. Moreover, as the approximation quality of the CF-2g algorithm decreases so does the scalability of the CC-2g algorithm. The choice between the algorithm then reduces to a choice of guaranteed performance and guaranteed optimality. We believe there are a number of areas for future work. One can imagine a system that allows a smooth interpolation between CF-2g and CC-2g. While both CF-2g and CC-2g can be immediately implemented as distributed algorithms, higher communication costs and delays may pose additional challenges. Finally, other problems such as constrained maximization of monotone / non-monotone functions could potentially be parallelized with the CF and CC frameworks. Acknowledgments. This research is supported in part by NSF CISE Expeditions Award CCF-1139158, LBNL Award 7076018, and DARPA XData Award FA8750-12-2-0331, and gifts from Amazon Web Services, Google, SAP, The Thomas and Stacey Siebel Foundation, Adobe, Apple, Inc., Bosch, C3Energy, Cisco, Cloudera, EMC, Ericsson, Facebook, GameOnTalis, Guavus, HP, Huawei, Intel, Microsoft, NetApp, Pivotal, Splunk, Virdata, VMware, and Yahoo!. This research was in part funded by the Office of Naval Research under contract/grant number N00014-11-1-0688. X. Pan?s work is also supported by a DSO National Laboratories Postgraduate Scholarship. 8 References [1] B. Mirzasoleiman, A. Karbasi, R. Sarkar, and A. Krause. Distributed submodular maximization: Identifying representative elements in massive data. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26. 2013. [2] N. Buchbinder, M. Feldman, J. Naor, and R. Schwartz. A tight linear time (1/2)-approximation for unconstrained submodular maximization. In FOCS, 2012. [3] A. 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From MAP to Marginals: Variational Inference in Bayesian Submodular Models Andreas Krause Department of Computer Science ETH Z?urich krausea@ethz.ch Josip Djolonga Department of Computer Science ETH Z?urich josipd@inf.ethz.ch Abstract Submodular optimization has found many applications in machine learning and beyond. We carry out the first systematic investigation of inference in probabilistic models defined through submodular functions, generalizing regular pairwise MRFs and Determinantal Point Processes. In particular, we present L-F IELD, a variational approach to general log-submodular and log-supermodular distributions based on sub- and supergradients. We obtain both lower and upper bounds on the log-partition function, which enables us to compute probability intervals for marginals, conditionals and marginal likelihoods. We also obtain fully factorized approximate posteriors, at the same computational cost as ordinary submodular optimization. Our framework results in convex problems for optimizing over differentials of submodular functions, which we show how to optimally solve. We provide theoretical guarantees of the approximation quality with respect to the curvature of the function. We further establish natural relations between our variational approach and the classical mean-field method. Lastly, we empirically demonstrate the accuracy of our inference scheme on several submodular models. 1 Introduction Submodular functions [1] are a rich class of set functions F : 2V ? R, investigated originally in game theory and combinatorial optimization. They capture natural notions such as diminishing returns and economies of scale. In recent years, submodular optimization has seen many important applications in machine learning, including active learning [2], recommender systems [3], document summarization [4], representation learning [5], clustering [6], the design of structured norms [7] etc. In this work, instead of using submodular functions to obtain point estimates through optimization, we take a Bayesian approach and define probabilistic models over sets (so called point processes) using submodular functions. Many of the aforementioned applications can be understood as performing MAP inference in such models. We develop L-F IELD, a general variational inference scheme for reasoning about log-supermodular (P (A) ? exp(?F (A))) and log-submodular (P (A) ? exp(F (A))) distributions, where F is a submodular set function. Previous work. There has been extensive work on submodular optimization (both approximate and exact minimization and maximization, see, e.g., [8, 9, 10, 11]). In contrast, we are unaware of previous work that addresses the general problem of probabilistic inference in Bayesian submodular models. There are two important special cases that have received significant interest. The most prominent examples are undirected pairwise Markov Random Fields (MRFs) with binary variables, also called the Ising model [12], due to their importance in statistical physics, and applications, e.g., in computer vision. While MAP inference is efficient for regular (log-supermodular) MRFs, computing the partition function is known to be #P-hard [13], and the approximation problem has been also shown to be hard [14]. Also, there is no FPRAS in the log-submodular case unless RP=NP [13]. An important case of log-submodular distributions is the Determinantal Point Process (DPP), used 1 in machine learning as a principled way of modeling diversity. Its partition function can be computed efficiently, and a 41 -approximation scheme for finding the (NP-hard) MAP [15] is known. In this paper, we propose a variational inference scheme for general Bayesian submodular models, that encompasses these two and many other distributions, and has instance-dependent quality guarantees. A hallmark of the models is that they capture high-order interactions between many random variables. Existing variational approaches [16] cannot efficiently cope with such high-order interactions ? they generally have to sum over all variables in a factor, scaling exponentially in the size of the factor. We discuss this prototypically for mean-field in Sec. 5. Our contributions. In summary, our main contributions are ? We provide the first general treatment of probabilistic inference with log-submodular and log-supermodular distributions, that can capture high-order variable interactions. ? We develop L-F IELD, a novel variational inference scheme that optimizes over sub- and supergradients of submodular functions. Our scheme yields both upper and lower bounds on the partition function, which imply rigorous probability intervals for marginals. We can also obtain factorial approximations of the distribution at no larger computational cost than performing MAP inference in the model (for which a plethora of algorithms are available). ? We identify a natural link between our scheme and the well-known mean-field method. ? We establish theoretical guarantees about the accuracy of our bounds, dependent on the curvature of the underlying submodular function. ? We demonstrate the accuracy of L-F IELD on several Bayesian submodular models. 2 Submodular functions and optimization Submodular functions are set functions satisfying a diminishing returns condition. Formally, let V be some finite ground set, w.l.o.g. V = {1, . . . , n}, and consider a set function F : 2V ? R. The marginal gain of adding item i ? V to the set A ? V w.r.t. F is defined as F (i|A) = F (A ? {i}) ? F (A). Then, a function F : 2V ? R is said to be submodular if for all A ? B ? V and i ? V ? B it holds that F (i|A) ? F (i|B). A function F is called supermodular if ?F is submodular. Without loss of generality1 , we will also make the assumption that F is normalized so that F (?) = 0. The problem of submodular function optimization has received significant attention. The (unconstrained) minimization of submodular functions, minA F (A), can be done in polynomial time. While general purpose algorithms [8] can be impractical due to their high order, several classes of functions admit faster, specialized algorithms, e.g. [17, 18, 19]. Many important problems can be cast as the minimization of a submodular objective, ranging from image segmentation [20, 12] to clustering [6]. Submodular maximization has also found numerous applications, e.g. experimental design [21], document summarization [4] or representation learning [5]. While this problem is in general NP-hard, effective constant-factor approximation algorithms exist (e.g. [22, 11]). In this paper we lift results from submodular optimization to probabilistic inference, which lets us quantify uncertainty about the solutions of the problem, instead of binding us to a single one. Our approach allows us to obtain (approximate) marginals at the same cost as traditional MAP inference. 3 Probabilistic inference in Bayesian submodular models Which Bayesian models are associated with submodular functions? Suppose F : 2V ? R is a submodular set function. We consider distributions over subsets2 A ? V of the form P (A) = Z1 e+F (A) and P (A) = Z1 e?F (A) , which we call log-submodular and log-supermodular, respectively. The P ?F (S) normalizing quantity Z = is called the partition function, and ? log Z is also S?V e known as free energy in the statistical physics literature. Note that distributions over subsets of V are isomorphic to distributions of |V | = n binary random variables X1 , . . . , Xn ? {0, 1} ? we simply identify Xi as the indicator function of the event i ? A, or formally Xi = [i ? A]. Examples of log-supermodular distributions. There are many distributions that fit this framework. As a prominent example, consider binary pairwise Markov random fields (MRFs), 1 2 The functions F (A) and F (A) + c encode the same distributions by virtue of normalization. In the appendix we also consider cardinality constraints, i.e., distributions over sets A that satisfy |A| ? k. 2 Q P (X1 , . . . , Xn ) = Z1 i,j ?i,j (Xi , Xj ). Assuming the potentials ?i,j are positive, such MRFs P are equivalent to distributions P (A) ? exp(?F (A)), where F (A) = i,j Fi,j (A), and Fi,j (A) = ? log ?i,j ([i ? A], [j ? A]). An MRF is called regular iff each Fi,j is submodular (and consequently P (A) is log-supermodular). Such models are extensively used in applications, e.g. in computer vision [12]. More generally, a rich class of distributions can be defined using decomposable submodular functions, which can be written as sums of (usually simpler) submodular functions. As an example, let G1 , . . . , Gk ? V be groups of elements and let ?1 , . . . , ?k : [0, ?) ? R be Pk concave. Then, the function F (A) = i=1 ?i (|Gi ? A|) is submodular. Models using these types of functions strictly generalize pairwise MRFs, and can capture higher-order variable interactions, which can be crucial in computer vision applications such as semantic segmentation (e.g. [23]). Examples of log-submodular distributions. A prominent example of log-submodular distributions are Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs) [24]. A DPP is a distribution over sets A of the form P (A) = Z1 exp(F (A)), where F (A) = log |KA |. Here, K ? RV ?V is a positive semi-definite matrix, KA is the square submatrix indexed by A, and | ? | denotes the determinant. Because K is positive semi-definite, F (A) is known to be submodular, and hence DPPs are log-submodular. Another natural model is that of facility location. Assume that we have a set of locations V where we can open shops, and a set N of customers that we would like to serve. For each customer i ? N and location j ? V we have a non-negative P number Ci,j quantifying how much service i gets from location j. Then, we consider F (A) = i?N maxj?A Ci,j . We can also penalize the number of open shops and use a distribution P (A) ? exp(F (A) ? ?|A|) for ? > 0. Such objectives have been used for optimization in many applications, ranging from clustering [25] to recommender systems [26]. The Inference Challenge. Having introduced the models that we consider, we now show how to do inference in them3 . Let us introduce the following operations that preserve submodularity. Definition 1. Let F : 2V ? R be submodular and let X, Y ? V . Define the submodular functions F X as the restriction of F to 2X , and FX : 2V ?X ? R as FX (A) = F (A ? X) ? F (X). First, let us see how to compute marginals. The probability that the random subset S distributed as P (S = A) ? exp(?F (A)) is in some non-empty lattice [X, Y ] = {A | X ? A ? Y } is equal to 1 X 1 X ZY P (S ? [X, Y ]) = exp(?F (A)) = exp(?F (X ? A)) = e?F (X) X , (1) Z Z Z X?A?Y A?Y ?X P Y where ZX = A?Y ?X e?(F (X?A)?F (X)) is the partition function of (FX )Y . Marginals P (i ? S) of any i ? V can be obtained using [{i}, V ]. We also obtain conditionals ? if, for example, we Y if A ? [X, Y ], condition on the event on (1), we have P (S = A|S ? [X, Y ]) = exp(?F (A))/ZX 0 otherwise. Note that log-supermodular distributions are conjugate with each other: for a logsupermodular prior P (A) ? exp(?F (A)) and a likelihood function4 P (E | A) ? exp(?L(E; A)), for which L is submodular w.r.t. A for each evidence E, the posterior P (A | E) ? exp(?(F (A) + L(E; A))) is log-supermodular as well. The same holds for log-submodular distributions. 4 The variational approach In Section 3 we have seen that due to the closure properties of submodular functions, important inference tasks (e.g., marginals, conditioning) in Bayesian submodular models require computing partition functions of suitably defined/restricted submodular functions. Given that the general problem is #P hard, we seek approximate methods. The main idea is to exploit the peculiar property of submodular functions that they can be both lower- and upper-bounded using simple additive P functions of the form s(A) + c, where c ? R and s : 2V ? R is modular, i.e. it satisfies s(A) = i?A s({i}). We will also treat modular functions s(?) as vectors s ? RV with coordinates si = s({i}). Because modular functions have tractable log-partition functions, we obtain the following bounds. Lemma 1. If ?A ? V : sl (A) + cl ? F (A) ? su (A) + cu for modular su , sl , and cl , cu ? R, then P log Z + (sl , cl ) ? log PA?V exp(+F (A)) ? log Z + (su , cu ) and log Z ? (su , cu ) ? log A?V exp(?F (A)) ? log Z ? (sl , cl ), P P where log Z + (s, c) = c + i?V log(1 + esi ) and log Z ? (s, c) = ?c + i?V log(1 + e?si ). 3 4 We consider log-supermodular distributions, as the log-submodular case is analogous. Such submodular loss functions L have been considered, e.g., in document summarization [4]. 3 We can use any modular (upper or lower) bound s(A) + c to define a completely factorized distribution that can be used as a proxy to approximate values of interest of the original distribution. For example, the marginal of i ? A under Q(A) ? exp(?s(A) + c) is easily seen to be 1/(1 + esi ). Instead of optimizing over all possible bounds of the above form, we consider for each X ? V two sets of modular functions, which are exact at X and lower- or upper-bound F respectively. Similarly as for convex functions, we define [8][?6.2] the subdifferential of F at X as ?F (X) = {s ? Rn | ?Y ? V : F (Y ) ? F (X) + s(Y ) ? s(X)}. (2) The superdifferential ? F (X) is defined analogously by inverting the inequality sign [27]. For each subgradient s ? ?F (X), the function gX (Y ) = s(Y ) + F (X) ? s(X) is lower bounding F . Similarly, for a supergradient s ? ? F (X), hX (Y ) = s(Y ) + F (X) ? s(X) is an upper bound of F . Note that both hX and gX are of the form that we considered (modular plus constant) and are tight at X, i.e. hX (X) = gX (X) = F (X). Because we will be optimizing over differentials, we define for + ? any X ? V the shorthands ZX (s) = Z + (s, F (X) ? s(X)) and ZX (s) = Z ? (s, F (X) ? s(X)). 4.1 Optimizing over subgradients ? To analyze the problem of minimizing log ZX (s) subject to s ? ?F (X), we introduce the base V polyhedron of F , defined as B(F ) = {s ? R | s(V ) = F (V ) and ?A ? V : s(A) ? F (A)}, i.e. the set of modular lower bounds that are exact at V . As the following lemma shows, we do not have ? to consider log ZX for all X and we can restrict our attention to the case X = ?. ? Lemma 2. For all X ? V we have mins??F (?) Z?? (s) ? mins??F (X) ZX (s). Moreover, the former problem is equivalent to X minimize log(1 + e?si ) subject to s ? B(F ). (3) s i?V Thus, we have to optimize a convex function over B(F ), a problem that has been already considered [8, 9]. For example, we can use the Frank-Wolfe algorithm [28, 29], which is easy to implement and has a convergence rate of O( k1 ). It requires the optimization of linear functions g(s) = hw, si = wT s over the domain, which, as shown by Edmonds [1], can be done greedily in O(|V | log |V |) time. More precisely, to compute a maximizer s? ? B(F ) of g(s), pick a bijection ? : {1, . . . , |V |} ? V that orders w, i.e. w?(1) ? w?(2) ? ? ? ? ? w?(|V |) . Then, set s??(i) = F (?(i)|{?(1), . . . , ?(i ? 1)}). Alternatively, if we can efficiently minimize the sum of the function plus a modular term, e.g. for the family of graph-cut representable functions [10], we can apply the divide-and-conquer algorithm [9][?9.1], which needs the minimization of O(|V |) problems. 1: procedure F RANK -W OLFE(F , x1 , ) 2: Define f (x) = log(1 + e?x ) . Elementwise. 3: for k ? 1, 2, . . . , T do 4: Pick s ? argminx?B(F ) hx, ?f (xk )i 5: if hxk ? s, ?f (xk )i ?  then 6: return xk . Small duality gap. 7: else 2 8: xk+1 = (1 ? ?k )xk + ?k s; ?k = k+2 1: procedure D IVIDE -C ONQUER(F ) 2: s ? F|V(V| ) 1; A? ? minimizer of F (?) ? s(?) 3: if F (A? ) = s(A? ) then 4: return s 5: else 6: sA ?D IVIDE -C ONQUER(F A ) 7: sV ?A ?D IVIDE -C ONQUER(FA ) 8: return (sA , sV ?A ) The entropy viewpoint and the Fenchel dual. Interestingly, (3) can be interpreted as a maximum entropy problem. Recall that, for s ? B(F ) we use the distribution P (A) ? exp(?s(A)), whose entropy is exactly the negative of our objective. Hence, we can consider Problem (3) as that of maximizing the entropy over the set of factorized distributions with parameters in ?B(F ). We can go back to the standard representation using the marginals p via pi = 1/(1+exp(si )). This becomes obvious if we consider the Fenchel dual of the problem, which, as discussed in ?5, allows us to make connections with the classical mean-field approach. To this end, we introduce the Lov`asz extension, defined for any F : 2V ? R as the support function over B(F ), i.e. f (p) = sups?B(F ) sT p [30]. V Let us also define for p ? [0, 1] by H[p] the Shannon entropy of a vector of |V | independent Bernoulli random variables with success probabilities p. 4 Lemma 3. The Fenchel dual problem of Problem (3) is maximize H[p] ? f (p). (4) p?[0,1]V Moreover, there is zero duality gap, and the pair (s? , p? ) is primal-dual optimal if and only if   1 1 p? = , . . . , and f (p? ) = p? T s? . 1 + exp(s?i ) 1 + exp(s?n ) (5) From the discussion above, it can be easily seen that the Fenchel dual reparameterizes the problem from the parameters ?s to the marginals p. Note that the dual lets us provide a certificate of optimality, as the Lov?asz extension can be computed with Edmonds? greedy algorithm. 4.2 Optimizing over supergradients To optimize over subgradients, we pick for each set X ? V a representative supergradient and optimize over all X. As in [27], we consider the following supergradients, elements of ? F (X). i?X i? /X Grow supergradient ?sX Shrink supergradient ?sX Bar supergradient sX ?sX ({i}) = F (i|V ? {i}) ?sX ({i}) = F (i|X) ?sX ({i}) = F (i|X ? {i}) ?sX ({i}) = F ({i}) sX ({i}) = F (i|V ? {i}) sX ({i}) = F ({i}) Optimizing the bound over bar supergradients requires the minimization of the original function plus a modular term. As already mentioned for the divide-and-conquer strategy above, we can do this efficiently for several problems. The exact formulation of the problem is presented below. Lemma 4. Define the modular functions m1 ({i}) = log(1 + e?F (i|V ?i) ) ? log(1 + eF (i) ), and m2 ({i}) = log(1 + eF (i|V ?i) ) ? log(1 + e?F (i) ). The following pairs of problems are equivalent. + X minimizeX log ZX (s ) ? X maximizeX log ZX (s ) ? ? minimizeX F (X) + m1 (X) minimizeX F (X) ? m2 (X) Even though we cannot optimize over grow and shrink supergradients, we can evaluate all three at the optimum for the problems above and pick the one that gives the best bound. 5 Mean-field methods and the multi-linear extension Is there a relation to traditional variational methods? If Q(?) is a distribution over subsets of V , then i h h Q(S) i Q(S) 0 ? KL(Q || P ) = EQ log = log Z + EQ log = log Z ? H[Q] + EQ [F ], P (S) exp(?F (S)) which yields the bound log Z ? H[Q] ? EQ [F ]. The mean-field method restricts Q to be a completely factorized distribution, so that elements are picked independently and Q can be described by V the vector of marginals q ? [0, 1] , over which it is then optimized. Compare this with our approach. Mean-Field Objective Our Objective: L-F IELD maximizeq?[0,1]V H[q] ? Eq [F ] . Non-concave, can be hard to evaluate. maximizeq?[0,1]V H[q] ? f (q) . Concave, efficient to evaluate. Both the Lov?asz extension f (q) and the multi-linear extension f?(q) = Eq [F ] are continuous extensions of F , introduced for submodular minimization [30] and maximization [31], respectively. The former agrees with the convex envelope of F and can be efficiently evaluated (in O(|V |) evaluations of F ) using Edmonds? greedy algorithm (cf., ?4.1, [1]). In contrast, evaluating P Q [i?A] / f?(q) = Eq [F ] = A?V i qi (1 ? qi )[i?A] F (A) in general requires summing over exponentially many terms ? a problem potentially as hard as the original inference problem! Even if f?(q) is approximated by sampling, it is neither convex nor concave. Moreover, computing the coordinate ascent updates of mean-field can be intractable for general F . Hence, our approach can be motivated as follows: instead of using the multi-linear extension f?, we use the Lov?asz extension f of F , which makes the problem convex and tractable. This analogy motivated the name L-F IELD (L for Lov?asz). 5 6 Curvature-dependent approximation bounds How accurate are the bounds obtained via our variational approach? We now provide theoretical guarantees on the approximation quality as a function of the curvature of F , which quantifies how far the function is from modularity. Curvature is defined for polymatroid functions, which are normalized non-decreasing submodular functions, i.e., a submodular function F : 2V ? R is polymatroid if for all A ? B ? V it holds that F (A) ? F (B). Definition 2 (From [32]). Let G : 2V ? R be a polymatroid function. The curvature ? of G is ?{i}) defined as 5 ? = 1 ? mini?V : G({i})>0 G(i|V G({i}) . The curvature is always between 0 and 1 and is equal to 0 if and only if the function is modular. Although the curvature is a notion for polymatroid functions, we can still show results for the general case as any submodular function F can be decomposed [33] as the sum of a modular term m(?) defined as m({i}) = F (i|V ? {i}) and G = F ? m, which is a polymatroid function. Our bounds P below depend on the curvature of G and GMAX = G(V ) = F (V ) ? i?V F (i|V ? i). Theorem 1. Let F = G + m, where G is polymatroid with curvature ? and m is modular defined as above. Pick any bijection ? : V ? {1, 2, . . . , |V |} and define sets S0? = ?, Si? = {?(1), . . . , ?(i)}. ? If we define s : s?(i) = G(Si? ) ? G(Si?1 ), then s + m ? ?F (?) and the following inequalities hold. X log Z ? (s + m, 0) ? log exp(?F (A)) ? ?GMAX (6) A?V log X exp(+F (A)) ? log Z + (s + m, 0) ? ?GMAX (7) A?V Theorem 2.PUnder the same assumptions as in Theorem 1, if we define the modular function s(?) by s(A) = i?A G({i}), then s + m ? ? F (?) and the following inequalities hold. log X exp(?F (A)) ? log Z ? (s + m, 0) ? ?(n ? 1) ? GMAX ? GMAX 1 + (n ? 1)(1 ? ?) 1?? (8) X ?(n ? 1) ? GMAX ? GMAX 1 + (n ? 1)(1 ? ?) 1?? (9) A?V log Z + (s + m, 0) ? log exp(+F (A)) ? A?V Note that we establish bounds for specific sub-/supergradients. Since our variational scheme considers these in the optimization as well, the same quality guarantees hold for the optimized bounds. Further, note that we get a dependence on the range of the function via GMAX . However, if we consider ?F for large ? > 1, most of the mass will be concentrated at the MAP (assuming it is unique). In this case, L-F IELD also performs well, as it can always choose gradients that are tight at the MAP. When we optimize over supergradients, all possible tight sets are considered. Similarly, the subgradients are optimized over B(F ), and for any X ? V there exists some sX ? B(F ) tight at X. 7 Experiments Our experiments6 aim to address four main questions: (1) How large is the gap between the upperand lower-bounds for the log-partition function and the marginals? (2) How accurate are the factorized approximations obtained from a single MAP-like optimization problem? (3) How does the accuracy depend on the amount of evidence (i.e., concentration of the posterior), the curvature of the function, and the type of Bayesian submodular model considered? (4) How does L-F IELD compare to mean-field on problems where the latter can be applied? We consider approximate marginals obtained from the following methods: lower/upper: obtained from the factorized distributions associated with the modular lower/upper bounds; lower-/upperbound: the lower/upper bound of the estimated probability interval. All of the functions we consider are graph-representable [17], which allows us to perform the optimization over superdifferentials using a single graph cut and use the exact divide-and-conquer algorithm. We used the min-cut 5 6 We differ from the convention to remove i ? V s.t. G({i}) = 0. Please see the appendix for a discussion. The code will be made available at http://las.ethz.ch. 6 implementation from [34]. Since the update equations are easily computable, we have also implemented mean-field for the first experiment. For the other two experiments computing the updates requires exhaustive enumeration and is intractable. The results are shown on Figure 1 and the experiments are explained below. We plot the averages of several repetitions of the experiments. Note that computing intervals for marginals requires two MAP-like optimizations per variable; hence we focus on small problems with |V | = 100. We point out that obtaining a single factorized approximation (as produced, e.g., by mean-field), only requires a single MAP-like optimization, which can be done for more than 270,000 variables [19]. Log-supermodular: Cuts / Pairwise MRFs. Our first experiment evaluates L-F IELD on a sequence of distributions that are increasingly more concentrated. Motivated by applications in semisupervised learning, we sampled data from a 2-dimensional Gaussian mixture model with 2 clusters. The centers were sampled from N ([3, 3], I) and N ([?3, ?3], I) respectively. For each cluster, we sampled n = 50 points from a bivariate normal. These 2n points were then used as nodes 0 to create a graph with weight between points x and x0 equal to e?||x?x || . As prior we chose P (A) ? exp(?F (A)), where F is the cut function in this graph, hence P (A) is a regular MRF. Then, for k = 1, . . . , n we consider the conditional distribution on the event that k points from the first cluster are on one side of the cut and k points from the other cluster are on the other side. As we provide more evidence, the posterior concentrates, and the intervals for both the log-partition function and marginals shrink. Compared with ground truth, the estimates of the marginal probabilities improve as well. Due to non-convexity, mean-field occasionally gets stuck in local optima, resulting in very poor marginals. To prevent this, we chose the best run out of 20 random restarts. These best runs produced slightly better marginals than L-F IELD for this model, at the cost of less robustness. Log-supermodular: Decomposable functions. Our second experiment assesses the performance as a function of the curvature of F . It is motivated by a problem in outbreak detection on networks. Assume that we have a graph G = (V, E) and some of its nodes E ? V have been infected by some contagious process. Instead of E, we observe a noisy set N ? V , corrupted with a false positive rate of 0.1 and afalse negative rate of 0.2. We used a log-supermodular prior P (A) ?  P  v ?A| ? exp ? v?V |N|N , where ? ? [0, 1] and Nv is the union of v and its neighbors. This prior v| prefers smaller sets and sets that are more clustered on the graph. Note that ? controls the preference of clustered nodes and affects the curvature. We sampled random graphs with 100 nodes from a Watts-Strogatz model and obtained E by running an independent cascade starting from 2 random nodes. Then, for varying ?, we consider the posterior, which is log-supermodular, as the noise model results in a modular likelihood. As the curvature increases, the intervals for both the log-partition function and marginals decrease as expected. Surprisingly, the marginals are very accurate (< 0.1 average error) even for very large curvature. This suggests that our curvature dependent bounds are very conservative, and much better performance can be expected in practice. Log-submodular: Facility location modeling. Our last experiment evaluates how accurate LF IELD is when quantifying uncertainty in submodular maximization tasks. Concretely, we consider the problem of sensor placement in water distribution networks, which can be modeled as submodular maximization [35]. More specifically, we have a water distribution network and there are some junctions V where we can put sensors that can detect contaminated water. We also have a set I of contamination scenarios. For each i ? I and j ? V we have a utility Ci,j ? [0, 1], that comes from real data [35]. Moreover, as the sensors are expensive, we would like to use as few as possible. WePuse the facility-location model, more precisely P (S = A) ? exp(F (A) ? 2|A|), with F (A) = i?N maxj?A Ci,j . Instead of optimizing for a fixed placement, here we consider the problem of sampling from P in order to quantify the uncertainty in the optimization task. We used the following sampling strategy. We consider nodes v ? V in some order. We then sample a Bernoulli Z with probability P (Z = 1) = qv based on the factorized distribution q from the modular upper bound. We then condition on v ? S if Z = 1, or v ? / S if Z = 0. In the computation of the lower bound we used the subgradient sg computed from the greedy order of V ? the i-th element in this order v1 , . . . , vn is the one that gives the highest improvement when added to the set formed by the previous i ? 1 elements. Then, sg ? ?F (?) : sgi = F (vi |{v0 , . . . , vi?1 }). We repeated the experiment several times using randomly sampled 500 contamination scenarios and 100 locations from a larger dataset. Note that our approximations get better as we condition on more information (i.e., proceed through the iterations of the sampling procedure above). Also note that even from the very beginning, the marginals are very accurate (< 0.1 average error). 7 0 10 20 30 40 Number of Conditioned Pairs 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 50 Log-Partition Function Lower Upper 20 10 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1-Curvature 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 Iteration 80 (g) [SP] ? Logp. Bounds 100 Average Gap ? Upper-Lower Bound Log-Partition Function Lower Upper 0 0.4 0.6 1-Curvature 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 20 40 60 Iteration 80 0 100 (h) [SP] ? Prob. Interval Gap Lower Upper Lower-Bound Upper-Bound 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1 1 0 0.2 2 4 6 8 Number of Conditioned Pairs 0 (e) [NW] ? Prob. Interval Gap (d) [NW] ? Logp. Bounds 100 0.2 0.4 (c) [CT] ? Mean Error on Marginals 1 1 Lower Upper Lower-Bound Upper-Bound Mean-Field 50 (b) [CT] ? Prob. Interval Gap 30 Average Gap ? Upper-Lower Bound (a) [CT] ? Logp. Bounds 10 20 30 40 Number of Conditioned Pairs Mean Absolute Error of Marginals 0 Mean Absolute Error of Marginals 50 0.6 1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1-Curvature 0.8 1 (f) [NW] ? Mean Error on Marginals Mean Absolute Error of Marginals Log-Partition Function 100 Average Gap ? Upper-Lower Bound Lower Upper Mean-Field 150 Lower Upper Lower-Bound Upper-Bound 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 5 10 Iteration 15 20 (i) [SP] ? Mean Error on Marginals Figure 1: Experiments on [CT] Cuts (a-c), [NW] network detection (d-f), [SP] sensor placement (g-i). Note that to generate (c,f,i) we had to compute the exact marginals by exhaustive enumeration. Hence, these three graphs were created using a smaller ground set of size 20. The error bars capture 3 standard errors. 8 Conclusion We proposed L-F IELD, the first variational method for approximate inference in general Bayesian submodular and supermodular models. Our approach has several attractive properties: It produces rigorous upper and lower bounds on the log-partition function and on marginal probabilities. These bounds can be optimized efficiently via convex and submodular optimization. Accurate factorial approximations can be obtained at the same computational cost as performing MAP inference in the underlying model, a problem for which a vast array of scalable methods are available. Furthermore, we identified a natural connection to the traditional mean-field method and bounded the quality of our approximations with the curvature of the function. Our experiments demonstrate the accuracy of our inference scheme on several natural examples of Bayesian submodular models. We believe that our results present a significant step in understanding the role of submodularity ? so far mainly considered for optimization ? in approximate Bayesian inference. Furthermore, L-F IELD presents a significant advance in our ability to perform probabilistic inference in models with complex, highorder dependencies, which present a major challenge for classical techniques. Acknowledgments. This research was supported in part by SNSF grant 200021 137528, ERC StG 307036 and a Microsoft Research Faculty Fellowship. References [1] [2] J. Edmonds. ?Submodular functions, matroids, and certain polyhedra?. In: Combinatorial structures and their applications (1970), pp. 69?87. D. Golovin and A. Krause. ?Adaptive Submodularity: Theory and Applications in Active Learning and Stochastic Optimization?. In: Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research (JAIR) 42 (2011), pp. 427?486. 8 [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] Y. Yue and C. Guestrin. ?Linear Submodular Bandits and its Application to Diversified Retrieval?. 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Naor, and R. Schwartz. ?A tight linear time (1/2)-approximation for unconstrained submodular maximization?. In: Foundations of Computer Science (FOCS). 2012. Y. Boykov, O. Veksler, and R. Zabih. ?Fast approximate energy minimization via graph cuts?. In: Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, IEEE Transactions on 23.11 (2001), pp. 1222?1239. M. Jerrum and A. Sinclair. ?Polynomial-time approximation algorithms for the Ising model?. In: SIAM Journal on computing 22.5 (1993), pp. 1087?1116. L. A. Goldberg and M. Jerrum. ?The complexity of ferromagnetic Ising with local fields?. In: Combinatorics, Probability and Computing 16.01 (2007), pp. 43?61. J. Gillenwater, A. Kulesza, and B. Taskar. ?Near-Optimal MAP Inference for Determinantal Point Processes?. In: Proc. Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS). 2012. M. J. Wainwright and M. I. Jordan. ?Graphical Models, Exponential Families, and Variational Inference?. In: Found. Trends Mach. Learn. 1.1-2 (2008), pp. 1?305. V. Kolmogorov and R. Zabin. ?What energy functions can be minimized via graph cuts?? In: Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, IEEE Transactions on 26.2 (2004), pp. 147?159. P. Stobbe and A. Krause. ?Efficient Minimization of Decomposable Submodular Functions?. In: Proc. Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS). 2010. S. Jegelka, F. Bach, and S. Sra. ?Reflection methods for user-friendly submodular optimization?. In: Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems. 2013, pp. 1313?1321. S. Jegelka and J. Bilmes. ?Submodularity beyond submodular energies: coupling edges in graph cuts?. In: Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), 2011 IEEE Conference on. 2011, pp. 1897?1904. A. Krause and C. Guestrin. ?Near-optimal Nonmyopic Value of Information in Graphical Models?. In: Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI). 2005. A. Krause and D. Golovin. ?Submodular Function Maximization?. In: Tractability: Practical Approaches to Hard Problems (to appear). Cambridge University Press, 2014. P. Kohli, L. Ladick?y, and P. H. Torr. ?Robust higher order potentials for enforcing label consistency?. In: International Journal of Computer Vision 82.3 (2009), pp. 302?324. A. Kulesza and B. Taskar. ?Determinantal Point Processes for Machine Learning?. In: Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 5.2?3 (2012). R. Gomes and A. Krause. ?Budgeted Nonparametric Learning from Data Streams?. In: ICML. 2010. K. El-Arini, G. Veda, D. Shahaf, and C. Guestrin. ?Turning down the noise in the blogosphere?. In: Proc. ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data mining. 2009. R. Iyer, S. Jegelka, and J. Bilmes. ?Fast Semidifferential-based Submodular Function Optimization?. In: ICML (3). 2013, pp. 855?863. M. Frank and P. Wolfe. ?An algorithm for quadratic programming?. In: Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 3.1-2 (1956), pp. 95?110. ISSN: 1931-9193. M. Jaggi. ?Revisiting Frank-Wolfe: Projection-free sparse convex optimization?. In: 30th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML-13). 2013, pp. 427?435. L. Lov?asz. ?Submodular functions and convexity?. In: Mathematical Programming The State of the Art. Springer, 1983, pp. 235?257. G. Calinescu, C. Chekuri, M. P?al, and J. Vondr?ak. ?Maximizing a submodular set function subject to a matroid constraint?. In: Integer programming and combinatorial optimization. Springer, 2007. M. Conforti and G. Cornuejols. ?Submodular set functions, matroids and the greedy algorithm: tight worst-case bounds and some generalizations of the Rado-Edmonds theorem?. In: Discrete applied mathematics 7.3 (1984), pp. 251?274. W. H. Cunningham. ?Decomposition of submodular functions?. In: Combinatorica 3.1 (1983). Y. Boykov and V. Kolmogorov. ?An experimental comparison of min-cut/max-flow algorithms for energy minimization in vision?. In: Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, IEEE Trans. on 26.9 (2004). A. Krause, J. Leskovec, C. Guestrin, J. VanBriesen, and C. Faloutsos. ?Efficient Sensor Placement Optimization for Securing Large Water Distribution Networks?. In: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 134.6 (2008), pp. 516?526. 9
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Stochastic Network Design in Bidirected Trees Xiaojian Wu1 1 Daniel Sheldon1,2 Shlomo Zilberstein1 School of Computer Science, University of Massachusetts Amherst 2 Department of Computer Science, Mount Holyoke College Abstract We investigate the problem of stochastic network design in bidirected trees. In this problem, an underlying phenomenon (e.g., a behavior, rumor, or disease) starts at multiple sources in a tree and spreads in both directions along its edges. Actions can be taken to increase the probability of propagation on edges, and the goal is to maximize the total amount of spread away from all sources. Our main result is a rounded dynamic programming approach that leads to a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme (FPTAS), that is, an algorithm that can find (1?)-optimal solutions for any problem instance in time polynomial in the input size and 1/. Our algorithm outperforms competing approaches on a motivating problem from computational sustainability to remove barriers in river networks to restore the health of aquatic ecosystems. 1 Introduction Many planning problems from diverse areas such as urban planning, social networks, and transportation can be cast as stochastic network design, where the goal is to take actions to enhance connectivity in a network with some stochastic element [1?8]. In this paper we consider a simple and widely applicable model where a stochastic network G0 is obtained by flipping an independent coin for each edge of a directed host graph G = (V, E) to determine whether it is included in G0 . The planner collects reward rst for each pair of vertices s, t ? V that are connected by a directed path in G0 . Actions are available to increase the probabilities of individual edges for some cost, and the goal is to maximize the total expected reward subject to a budget constraint. Stochastic network design generalizes several existing problems related to spreading phenomena in networks, including the well known influence maximization problem. Specifically, the coin-flipping process captures the live-edge characterization of the Independent Cascade model [7], in which the presence of edge (u, v) in G0 allows influence (e.g., behavior, disease, or some other spreading phenomenon) to propagate from u to v. Influence maximization seeks a seed set S of at most k nodes to maximize the expected number of nodes reachable from S, which is easily modeled within our model by assigning appropriate rewards and actions. The framework also captures more complex problems with actions that increase edge probabilities?a setup that proved useful in various computational sustainability problems aimed to restore habitat or remove barriers in landscape networks to facilitate the spread and conserve a target species [4?6, 8]. The stochastic network design problem in its general form is intractable. It includes influence maximization as a special case and is thus NP-hard to approximate within a ratio of 1 ? 1/e +  for any  > 0 [7], and it is #P-hard to compute the objective function under fixed probabilities [9, 10]. Unlike the influence maximization problem, which is a monotone submodular maximization problem and thus admits a greedy (1 ? 1/e)-approximation algorithm, the general problem is not submodular [6]. Previous problems in this class were solved by a combination of techniques including the sample average approximation, mixed integer programming, dual decomposition, and primal-dual heuristics [6, 11?13], none of which provide both scalable running-time and optimality guarantees. 1 It is therefore of great interest to design efficient algorithms with provable approximation guarantees for restricted classes of stochastic network design. Wu, Sheldon, and Zilberstein [8] recently showed that the special case in which G is a directed tree where influence flows away from the root (i.e., rewards are non-zero only for paths originating at the root) admits a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme (FPTAS). Their algorithm?rounded dynamic programming (RDP)?is based on recursion over rooted subtrees. Their work was motivated by the upstream barrier removal problem in river networks [5], in which migratory fish such as salmon swim upstream from the root (ocean) of a river network attempting to access upstream spawning habitat, but are blocked by barriers such as dams along the way. Actions are taken to remove or repair barriers and thus increase the probability fish can pass and therefore utilize a greater amount of their historical spawning habitat. In this paper, we investigate the harder problem of stochastic network design in a bidirected tree, motivated by a novel conservation planning problem we term bidirectional barrier removal. The goal is to remove barriers to facilitate point-to-point movement in river networks. This applies to the much broader class of resident (non-migratory) fish species whose populations and gene-flow are threatened by dams and smaller river barriers (e.g., culverts) [14]. Replacing or retrofitting barriers with passage structures is a key conservation priority [15, 16]. However, stochastic network design in a bidirected tree is apparently much harder than in a directed tree. Since spread originates at all vertices instead of a designated root and edges may have different probabilities in each direction, it is not obvious how computations can be structured in a recursive fashion as in [8]. Our main contribution is a novel RDP algorithm for stochastic network design in bidirected trees and a proof that it is an FPTAS?in particular, it computes (1 ? )-optimal solutions in time O(n8 /6 ). To derive the new RDP algorithm, we first show in Section 3 that the computation can be structured recursively despite the lack of a fixed orientation to the tree by choosing an arbitrary orientation and using a more nuanced dynamic programming algorithm. However, this algorithm does not run in polynomial time. In Section 4, we apply a rounding scheme and then prove in Section 5 that this leads to a polynomial-time algorithm with the desired optimality guarantee. However, the running time of O(n8 /6 ) limits scalability in practice, so in Section 6 we describe an adaptive-rounding version of the algorithm that is much more efficient. Finally, we show that RDP significantly outperforms competing algorithms on the bidirectional barrier removal problem in real river networks. 2 Problem Definition The input to the stochastic network design problem consists of a bidirected tree T = (V, E) with probabilities puv assigned to each directed edge (u, v) ? E. A finite set of possible repair actions Au,v = Av,u is associated with each bidirected edge {u, v}; action a ? Au,v has cost cuv,a and, if taken, simultaneously increases the two directed edge probabilities to puv|a and pvu|a . We assume that Au,v contains a default zero-cost ?noop? action a0 such that puv|a0 = puv and pvu|a0 = pvu . A policy ? selects an action ?(u, v)?either a repair action or a noop?for each bidirected edge. We write puv|? := puv|?(u,v) for the probability of edge (u, v) under policy ?. In addition to the edge probabilities, a non-negative reward rs,t is specified for each pair of vertices s, t ? V . Given a policy ?, the s-t accessibility ps t|? is the product of all edge probabilities on the unique path from s to t, which is the probability that s retains a path to t in the subgraph T 0 where each edge is present independently with probability puv|? . The total expected reward for policy ? is P z(?) = s,t?V rs,t ps t|? . Our goal is to find a policy that maximizes z(?) subject to a budget b limiting the total cost c(?) of the actions being taken. Hence, the resulting policy satisfies ? ? ? arg max{?|c(?)?b} z(?). In this work, we will assume that the rewards factor as rs,t = hs ht , which is useful for our dynamic programming approach and consistent with several widely used metrics. For example, network resilience [17] is defined as the expected number of node-pairs that can communicate after random component failures, which is captured in our framework by setting rs,t = hs = ht = 1. Network resilience is a general model of connectivity that can apply in diverse complex network settings. The ecological measure of probability of connectivity (PC) [18], which was the original motivation of our formulation, can also be expressed using factored rewards. PC is widely used in ecology and conservation planning and is implemented in the Conefor software, which is the basis of many planning applications [19]. A precise definition of PC appears below. 2 u Barrier Removal Problem Fig. 1 illustrates the bidiv u v rectional barrier removal problem in river networks and A C A C its mapping to stochastic network design in a bidirected w w tree. A river network is a tree with edges that represent B B stream segments and nodes that represent either stream junctions or barriers that divide segments. Fish begin x x in each segment and can swim freely between adjacent segments, but can only pass a barrier with a specified passage probability or passability in each direction; in Figure 1: Left: sample river network with barriers A, B, C and contiguous regions u, v, w, x. most cases, downstream passability is higher than up- Right: corresponding bidirected tree. stream passability. To map this problem to stochastic network design, we create a bidirected tree T = (V, E) where each node v ? V represents a contiguous region of the river network?i.e., a connected set of stream segments among which fish can move freely without passing any barriers?and the value hv is equal to the total amount of habitat in that region (e.g., the total length of all segments). Each barrier then becomes a bidirected edge that connects two regions, with the passage probabilities in the upstream and downstream directions assigned to the corresponding directed edges. It is easy to see that T retains a tree structure. Our objective function z(?) is motivated by PC introduced above. It is defined as follows: P P z(?) s?S t?S rs,t ps t|? P C(?) = = (1) R R P where R = s,t hs ht is a normalization constant. When hv is the amount of suitable habitat in region v, P C(?) is the probability that a fish placed at a starting point chosen uniformly at random from suitable habitat (so that a point in region s is chosen with probability proportional to hs ) can reach a random target point also chosen uniformly at random by passing each barrier in between. In the rest of the paper, we present algorithms for solving this problem and their theoretical analysis that generalize the rounded DP approach introduced in [8]. 3 Dynamic Programming Algorithm Given a bidirected tree T , we present a divide-and-conquer method to evaluate a policy ? and a dynamic programming algorithm to optimize the policy. We use the fact that given an arbitrary root, any bidirected tree T can be viewed as a rooted tree in which each vertex u has corresponding children and subtrees. To simplify our algorithm and proofs, we make the following assumption. Assumption 1. Each vertex in the rooted tree has at most two children. Any problem instance can be converted into one that satisfies this assumption by replacing any vertex u with more than two children by a sequence of internal vertices with exactly two children. The original edges are attached to the original children of u and the added edges have probabilities 1. In the modified tree, u has two children and its habitat is split equally among u and the newly added vertices. The resulting binary tree has at most twice as many vertices as the original one. Most importantly, a policy for the modified tree can be trivially mapped to a unique policy for the original tree with the same expected reward. Evaluating A Fixed Policy Using Divide and Conquer To evaluate a fixed policy ?, we use a divide and conquer method that recursively computes a tuple of three values per subtree. Let v and w be the children of u. The tuple of the subtree Tu rooted at u can be calculated using the tuples of subtrees Tv and Tw . Once the tuple of Troot = T , is calculated, we can extract the total expected reward from that tuple. Now, given a policy ?, we define the tuple of Tu as ?u (?) = (?u (?), ?u (?), zu (?)), where P ? ?u (?) = t?Tu pu t|? ht is the sum of the s-t accessibilities of all paths from u to t ? Tu , each of which is weighted by the habitat ht of its ending vertex t. P ? ?u (?) = s?Tu ps u|? hs is the sum of the s-t accessibilities of all paths from s ? Tu to u, each of which is weighted by the habitat hs of its departing vertex s. P P ? zu (?) = s?Tu t?Tu ps t|? rs,t (rs,t = hs ht ) represents the total expected reward that a fish obtains by following paths with both starting and ending vertices in Tu . 3 The tuple ?u (?) is calculated recursively using ?v (?) and ?w (?). To calculate ?u (?), we note that a path from u to a vertex in Tu \{u} is the concatenation of either the edge (u, v) with a path from v to Tv or the edge (u, w) with a path from w to Tw , that is, ?u (?) can be written as X X puw|? pw t|? ht + hu = puv|? ?v (?) + puw|? ?w (?) + hu (2) puv|? pv t|? ht + t?Tw t?Tv Similarly, ?u (?) = X X ps ps v|? pvu|? hs + w|? pwu|? hs + hu = pvu|? ?v (?) + pwu|? ?w (?) + hu (3) s?Tw s?Tv By dividing the reward from paths that start and end in Tu based on their start and end nodes, we can express zu (?) as follows: zu (?) = zv (?)+zw (?)+?v (?)pv w|? ?w (?)+?w (?)pw 2 v|? ?v (?)+hu ?u (?)+hu ?u (?)?hu (4) The first two terms describe paths that start and end within a single subtree?either Tv or Tw . The third and fourth terms describe paths that start in Tv and end in Tw or vice versa. The last three terms describe paths that start or end at u, with an adjustment to avoid double-counting the trivial path that starts and ends at u. That way, all tuples can be evaluated with one pass from the leaves to the root and each vertex is only visited once. At the root, zroot (?) is the expected reward of policy ?. Dynamic Programming Algorithm We introduce a DP algorithm to compute the optimal policy. Let subpolicy ?u be the part of the full policy that defines actions for barriers within Tu . In the DP algorithm, each subtree Tu maintains a list of tuples ? that are reachable by some subpolicies and each tuple is associated with a least-cost subpolicy, that is, ?u? ? arg min{?u |?u (?u )=?} c(?u ). Let v and w be two children of u. We recursively generate the list of reachable tuples and the associated least-cost subpolicies using the tuples of v and w. To do this, for each ?v , ?w , we first ? . Then, using these two least-cost subpolicies of the children, extract the corresponding ?v? and ?w 0 for each a ? Auv and a ? Auw , a new subpolicy ?u is constructed for Tu with cost c(?u ) = ? ). Using Eqs. (2), (3) and (4), the tuple ?u (?u ) of ?u is calculated. cuv,a + cuw,a0 + c(?v? ) + c(?w If ?u (?u ) already exists in the list (i.e., ?u (?u ) was created by some other previously constructed subpolicies), we update the associated subpolicy such that only the minimum cost subpolicy is kept. If not, we add this tuple ?u (?u ) and subpolicy ?u to the list. To initialize the recurrence, the list of a leaf subtree contains only a single tuple (hu , hu , h2u ) associated with an empty subpolicy. Once the list of Troot is calculated, we scan the list to pick a pair ? ? , ? ? ) ? arg max{(?root ,?)|c(?)?b} zroot where zroot is the third element , ? ? ) such that (?root (?root ? is the optimal expected reward. of ?root . Finally, ? ? is the returned optimal policy and zroot 4 Rounded Dynamic Programming The DP algorithm is not a polynomial-time algorithm because the number of reachable tuples increases exponentially as we approach the root. In this section, we modify the DP algorithm into a FPTAS algorithm. The basic idea is to discretize the continuous space of ?u at each vertex such that there only exists a polynomial number of different tuples. To do this, the three dimensions are discretized using granularity factors Ku? , Ku? and Kuz respectively such that the space is divided into a finite number of cubes with volume Ku? ? Ku? ? Kuz . For any subpolicy ?u of u in the discretized space, there is a rounded tuple ??u (?u ) = (? ?u (?u ), ? ?u (?u ), z?u (?u )) to underestimate the true tuple ?u (?u ) of ?u . To evaluate ??u (?u ), we use the same recurrences as (2), (3) and (4), but rounding each intermediate value into a value in the discretized space. The recurrences are as follow: ??usum (?u ) = puv|?u ??v (?u )+puw|?u ??w (?u )+hu ??u (?u ) = Ku?  ??usum (?u ) Ku? ? ?sum (?u ) = pvu|?u ? ?v (?u )+pwu|?u ? ?w (?u )+hu u  ? ?u (?u ) = 4 Ku?  ? ?sum (?u ) u Ku?  (5) z?u (?u ) = Kuz ?  z?v (?u )+ z?w (?u )+ ? ?v (?u )pv ?w (?u )+ ? ?w (?u )pw w|?u ? Kuz (6)  ?v (?u )+hu ? ?sum (?u )+hu ??usum (?u )?h2u v|?u ? u The modified algorithm?rounded dynamic programming (RDP)?is the same as the DP algorithm, except that it works in the discretized space. Specifically, each vertex maintains a list of reachable rounded tuples ??u , each one associated with a least costly subpolicy achieving ??u , that is, ?u? ? arg min{?u |??u (?u )=??u } c(?u ). Similarly to our DP algorithm, we generate the list of reachable tuples for each vertex using its children?s lists of tuples. The difference is that to calculate the rounded tuple of a new subpolicy we use recurrences (5) and (6) instead of (2), (3) and (4). 5 Theoretical Analysis We now turn to the main theoretical result: Theorem 1. RDP is a FPTAS. Specifically, let OP T be the value of the optimal policy. Then, RDP 8 can compute a policy with value at least (1 ? )OP T in time bounded by O( n6 ). Approximation Guarantee Let ? ? be the optimal policy and let ? 0 be the policy returned by RDP. We bound the value loss z(? ? ) ? z(? 0 ) by bounding the distance of the true tuple ?(?) and the ? rounded tuple ?(?) for an arbitrary policy ?. In Eqs. (5) and (6), starting from leaf vertices, each rounding operation introduces an error at most Ku? where ? represents ?, ? and z. For ?, starting from u, each vertex t ? Tu introduces error Kt? by using the rounding operation. The error is discounted by the accessibility from u to t. For ?, each vertex s ? Tu introduces error Ks? , discounted in the same way. The total error is equal to the sum of all discounted errors. Finally, we get the following result by setting    Ku? = hu , Ku? = hu , Kuz = h2u 3 3 3 Lemma 1. If condition (7) holds, then for all u ? V and an arbitrary policy ?: X  X  ?u (?) ? ??u (?) ? pu t|? Kt? = pu t|? ht = ?u (?) 3 3 t?Tu t?Tu X X   ?u (?) ? ? ?u (?) ? ps u|? Ks? = ps u|? hs = ?u (?) 3 3 s?Tu (7) (8) (9) s?Tu The difference of z(?) ? z?(?) is bounded by the following lemma. Lemma 2. If condition (7) holds, z(?) ? z?(?) ? z(?) for an arbitrary policy ?. The proof by induction on the tree appears in the supplementary material. Theorem 2. Let ? ? and ? 0 be the optimal policy and the policy return by RDP respectively. Then, if condition (7) holds, we have z(? ? ) ? z(? 0 ) ? z(? ? ). Proof. By Lemma 2, we have z(? ? )? z?(? ? ) ? z(? ? ). Furthermore, z(? 0 ) ? z?(? 0 ) ? z?(? ? ) where the second inequality holds because ? 0 is the optimal policy with respect to the rounded policy value. Therefore, we have z(? ? ) ? z(? 0 ) ? z(? ? ) ? z?(? ? ) which proves the theorem. Runtime Analysis Now, we derive the runtime result of Theorem 1, that is, if condition (7) holds, 8 the runtime of RDP is bounded by O( n6 ). First, it is reasonable to make the following assumption: Assumption 2. The value hu is constant with respect to n and  for each u ? V . Let mu,?? , mu,?? and mu,?z be the number of different values for ??u , ? ?u and z?u respectively in the rounded value space of u. Lemma 3. If condition (7) holds, then n  n   n2  u u mu,?? = O , mu,?? = O , mu,?z = O u (10)    for all u ? V where nu is the number of vertices in subtree Tu . 5 P P h u t Proof. The number mu,?? is bounded by t?T where t?Tu ht is a naive and loose upper bound ? Ku of ?u obtained assuming all passabilities of streams in Tu are 1.0. By Assumption (2), mu,?? = all passabilities are 1.0, the O( nu ). The upper bound of mu,?? can be similarly derived. Assuming P P P P n2 t?Tu hs ht s?Tu upper bound of zu is s?Tu t?Tu hs ht . Therefore, mu,?z ? = O( u ) Kz u Recall that RDP works by recursively calculating the list of reachable rounded tuples and associated least costly subpolicy. Using Lemma 3, we get the following main result: 8 Theorem 3. If condition (7) holds, the runtime of RDP is bounded by O( n6 ). Proof. Let T (n) be the maximum runtime of RDP for any subtree with n vertices. In RDP, for vertex u with children v and w, we compute the list and associated subpolicies by iterating over all combinations of ??v and ??w . For each combination, we iterate over all available action combinations auv ? Auv and auw ? Auw , which takes constant time because the number of available repair actions are constant w.r.t. n and . Therefore, we can bound T (n) using the following recurrence: T (nu ) = O(mv,?? mv,?? mv,?z mw,?? mw,?? mw,?z ) + T (nv ) + T (nw ) ? c ? max 0?k?(nu ?1) c n4v n4w + T (nv ) + T (nw ) 6 k 4 (nu ? k ? 1)4 + T (k) + T (nu ? k ? 1) 6 where nu = 1 + nv + nw as Tu consists of u, Tv and Tw . The second inequality is due to Lemma 3. The third inequality is obtained by a change of variable. 8 We prove that T (n) ? c n6 using induction. For the base case n = 0, we have T (n) = 0 and for the 8 base case n = 1, the subtree only contains one vertex, so T (n) = c. Now assume that T (k) ? c k6 for all k < n. Then one can show that  c n8 4 4 8 8 T (n) ? max (11) k (n ? k ? 1) + k + (n ? k ? 1) ? c 6 0?k?(n?1) 6 and thus the theorem holds. A detailed justification of the final inequality appears in the supplementary material. 6 Algorithm Implementation and Experiments The theoretical results suggest that the RDP approach may be impractical for large networks. However, we can accelerate the algorithm and produce high quality solutions by making some changes, motivated by observations from our initial experiments. First, the theoretical runtime upper bound is much worse than the actual runtime of RDP because in practice, because the number of reachable tuples per vertex is much lower than the upper bounds of mu,?? mu,?? and mu,?z used in the proof. Moreover, some inequalities used in Section 5 are very loose; most of the rounding operations in fact produce much less error than the upper bound Ku? . Therefore, we can set the values of Ku? much larger than the theoretical values without compromising the quality of approximation. Consequently, before calculating the list of reachable tuples of u, we first estimate the upper bound and lower bound of the reachable values of ??u , ? ?u and z?u using the list of tuples of its children. Then, we dynamically assign values to Ku? by fixing the total number of different discrete values of ??u , ? ?u and z?u in the space, thereby determining the granularity of discretization. For example, if the upper and the lower bounds of ??u are 1000 and 500 respectively, and we want 10 different values, = 50. By using a finer granularity of discretization, we get the value of Ku? is set to be 1000?500 10 a slower algorithm but better solution quality. In our experiments, setting these numbers to be 50, 50 and 150 for ??u , ? ?u and z?u , the algorithm became very fast and we were able to get very good solution quality. We compared RDP with a greedy algorithm and a state-of-the-art algorithm for conservation planning, which uses sample average approximation and mixed integer programming (SAA+MIP) [4, 6, 11]. We initially considered two different greedy algorithms. One incrementally maximizes the increase of expected reward. The other incrementally maximizes the ratio between increase in expected reward and action cost. We found that the former performs better than the latter, so we 6 only report results for that version. We compare all three algorithms on small river networks. On large networks, we only compare RDP with the greedy algorithm because SAA+MIP fails to solve problems of that size. Dataset Our experiments use data from the CAPS project [20] for river networks in Massachusetts (Fig. 2). Barrier passabilities are calculated from barrier features using the model defined by the CAPS project. We created actions to model practical repair activities. For road-crossings, most passabilities start close to 1 and are cheap to repair relative to dams. To model this, we set Au,v = {a1 }, puv|a1 = pvu|a1 = 1.0 and cuv|a1 = 5. In contrast, it is difficult and expensive to remove dams, so multiple strategies must be considered to improve their passability. We created actions Au = {a1 , a2 , a3 } with action a1 having puv|a1 = pvu|a1 = 0.2 and cuv|a1 = 20; action a2 having puv|a2 = pvu|a2 = 0.5 and cuv|a2 = 40; and action a3 having puv|a3 = pvu|a3 = 1.0 and cuv|a3 = 100. Figure 2: River networks in Massachusetts Results on Small Networks We compared SAA+MIP, RDP and Greedy on small river networks. SAA+MIP used 20 samples for the sample average approximation and IBM CPLEX on 12 CPU cores to solve the integer program. RDP1 used finer discretization than RDP2, therefore requiring longer runtime. The results in Table 1 show that RDP1 gives the best increase in expected reward (relative to a zero-cost policy) in most cases and RDP2 produces similarly good solutions, but takes less time. Although Greedy is extremely fast, it produces poor solutions on some networks. SAA+MIP gives better results than Greedy, but fails to scale up. For example, on a network with 781 segments and 604 barriers, SAA+MIP needs more than 16G of memory to construct the MIP. Number of Segments Barriers 106 36 101 71 163 91 263 289 499 206 456 464 639 609 SAA+MIP 3.7 4.0 11.3 20.7 48.6 124.1 51.8 ER Increase Greedy RDP1 4.1 4.1 3.6 4.3 11.2 12.3 11.1 25.3 55.6 53.8 96.8 146.9 25.8 53.7 RDP2 4.0 4.3 12.1 24.8 53.2 144.3 51.6 SAA+MIP 3.3 19.5 42.3 1148.7 116.0 8393.5 12720.1 Runtime Greedy RDP1 0.0 0.7 0.0 2.5 0.0 13.6 0.7 263.3 0.7 11.9 0.7 359.9 1.3 721.2 RDP2 0.4 1.2 6.8 98.7 6.4 142.0 242.4 Table 1: Comparison of SAA, RDP and Greedy. Time is in seconds. Each unit of expected reward is 107 (square meters). ?ER increase? means the increase in expected reward after taking the computed policy. Results on Large Networks We compared RDP and Greedy on a large network?the Connecticut River watershed, which has 10451 segments, 587 dams and 7545 crossings. We tested both algorithms on three different settings of action passabilities. Runtime ER Increase Actions w/ symmetric passabilities 50 5000 RDP1 In this experiment, we used the acRDP2 Greedy 40 4000 tions introduced above. The expected 30 3000 reward increase (Fig. 3a) and runtime (Fig. 3b) are plotted for different budRDP1 20 2000 RDP2 Greedy gets. For the expected reward, each 10 1000 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 14 2 unit represents 10 m . Runtime is Budget Budget x 10 x 10 in seconds. As before, RDP1 uses (a) Expected reward increase (b) Runtime in seconds finer discretization of tuple space Figure 3: RDP vs Greedy on symmetric passabilities. than RDP2. As Fig. 3 shows, the RDP algorithms give much better solution quality than the greedy algorithm. With a budget of 20000, the ER increase of RDP1 is almost twice the increase for Greedy. Incidentally, RDP1 doesn?t improve the solution quality by much, but it takes much longer time to finish. Notice that both RDP1 and RDP2 use constant runtime because the number of discrete values in both settings are bounded. In contrast, the runtime of Greedy increases with the budget size and eventually exceeds RDP2?s runtime. 4 7 4 Runtime ER Increase Actions with asymmetric passabili4000 RDP RDP 55 ties The RDP algorithms work with Greedy Greedy 3500 50 3000 asymmetric passabilities as well. For 45 40 2500 road-crossings, we set the actions to 35 2000 be the same as before. For dams, we 30 1500 25 first considered the case in which the 20 1000 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 downstream passabilities are all 1? Budget Budget x 10 x 10 which happens for some fish?and all (a) Expected reward increase (b) Runtime in seconds upstream passabilities are the same as before. The results are shown in Fig- Figure 4: RDP vs Greedy on asymmetric passabilities with all ures 4a and 4b. In this case RDP downstream passabilities equal to 1. still performs better than Greedy and tends to use less time as the budget x 10 2.5 RDP increases. 55 2.3 Greedy 4 4 ER Increase 4 Runtime 50 2 45 1.7 We also considered a hard case in 40 1.4 RDP 35 Greedy 1.1 which the downstream passabilities 30 0.8 25 of a dam are given by pvu|a1 = 0.8, 20 0.5 15 0.2 pvu|a2 = 0.9, and pvu|a3 = 1.0. 0.05 10 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 These variations of passabilities proBudget Budget x 10 x 10 duce more tuples in the discretized (a) Expected reward increase (b) Runtime in seconds space. Our RDP algorithm still works well and produces better solutions Figure 5: RDP vs Greedy on asymmetric passabilities with varythan Greedy over a range of budgets ing downstream passabilities. as shown in Fig. 5a. As expected in such hard cases, RDP needs much more time than Greedy. However, obtaining high quality solutions to such complex conservation planning problems in a matter of hours makes the approach very valuable. 4 4 ER Increase Time/Quailty Tradeoff Finally, we tested the time/quality trade25 off offered by RDP. The tradeoff is controlled by varying the level of 20 discretization. We ran these experiments on the Connecticut River 15 RDP watershed using symmetric passabilities. Fig. 6 shows how runtime Greedy 10 and expected reward grow as we refine the level of discretization. 5 As we can see, in this case RDP converges quickly on high-quality 0 0 2000 4000 6000 results and exhibits the desired diminishing returns property of anyRuntime time algorithms?the quality gain is large initially and it diminishes as we continue to refine the discretization. Figure 6: Time/quality tradeoffs 7 Conclusion We present an approximate algorithm that extends the rounded dynamic programming paradigm to stochastic network design in bidirected trees. The resulting RDP algorithm is designed to maximize connectivity in a river network by solving the bidirectional barrier removal problem?a hard conservation planning problem for which no scalable algorithms exist. We prove that RDP is an FPTAS, returning (1 ? )-optimal solutions in polynomial time. However, its time complexity, O(n8 /6 ), makes it hard to apply it to realistic river networks. We present an adaptive-rounding version of the algorithm that is much more efficient. We apply this adaptive rounding method to segments of river networks in Massachusetts, including the entire Connecticut River watershed. In these experiments, RDP outperforms both a baseline greedy algorithm and an SAA+MIP algorithm, which is a state-of-art technique for stochastic network design. Our new algorithm offers an effective tool to guide ecologists in hard conservation planning tasks that help preserve biodiversity and mitigate the impacts of barriers in river networks. In future work, we will examine additional applications of RDP and ways to relax the assumption that the underlying network is tree-structured. Acknowledgments This work has been partially supported by NSF grant IIS-1116917. 8 References [1] Srinivas Peeta, F. Sibel Salman, Dilek Gunnec, and Kannan Viswanath. Pre-disaster investment decisions for strengthening a highway network. Computers and Operations Research, 37(10):1708?1719, 2010. [2] Jean-Christophe Folt?ete, Xavier Girardet, and C?eline Clauzel. A methodological framework for the use of landscape graphs in land-use planning. Landscape and Urban Planning, 124:140?150, 2014. [3] Leandro R. Tambosi, Alexandre C. Martensen, Milton C. Ribeiro, and Jean P. Metzger. A framework to optimize biodiversity restoration efforts based on habitat amount and landscape connectivity. Restoration Ecology, 22(2):169?177, 2014. [4] Xiaojian Wu, Daniel Sheldon, and Shlomo Zilberstein. Stochastic network design for river networks. NIPS Workshop on Machine Learning for Sustainability, 2013. [5] Jesse Rush OHanley and David Tomberlin. Optimizing the removal of small fish passage barriers. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 10(2):85?98, 2005. [6] Daniel Sheldon, Bistra Dilkina, Adam Elmachtoub, Ryan Finseth, Ashish Sabharwal, Jon Conrad, Carla Gomes, David Shmoys, William Allen, Ole Amundsen, and William Vaughan. Maximizing the spread of cascades using network design. In Proc. of the 26th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI), pages 517?526, 2010. ? Tardos. Maximizing the spread of influence through a social [7] David Kempe, Jon Kleinberg, and Eva network. In Proc. of the 9th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, pages 137?146, 2003. [8] Xiaojian Wu, Daniel Sheldon, and Shlomo Zilberstein. Rounded dynamic programming for treestructured stochastic network design. Proc. of the 28th Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), 2014. [9] Wei Chen, Chi Wang, and Yajun Wang. Scalable influence maximization for prevalent viral marketing in large-scale social networks. In Proc. of the 16th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, pages 1029?1038, 2010. [10] Leslie G. Valiant. The complexity of enumeration and reliability problems. SIAM Journal on Computing, 8(2):410?421, 1979. [11] Akshat Kumar, Xiaojian Wu, and Shlomo Zilberstein. Lagrangian relaxation techniques for scalable spatial conservation planning. In Proc. of the 26th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), pages 309?315, 2012. [12] Shan Xue, Alan Fern, and Daniel Sheldon. Scheduling conservation designs via network cascade optimization. In Proc. of the 26th Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), pages 391?397, 2012. [13] Shan Xue, Alan Fern, and Daniel Sheldon. Dynamic resource allocation for optimizing population diffusion. In Proc. of the Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS), 2014. [14] Benjamin H. Letcher, Keith H. Nislow, Jason A. Coombs, Matthew J. O?Donnell, and Todd L. Dubreuil. Population response to habitat fragmentation in a stream-dwelling brook trout population. PloS one, 2 (11):e1139, January 2007. [15] Alison A. Bowden. Towards a comprehensive strategy to recover river herring on the Atlantic seaboard: Lessons from Pacific salmon. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2013. [16] Erik H. Martin and Colin D. Apse. Northeast aquatic connectivity: An assessment of dams on northeastern rivers. Technical report, The Nature Conservancy, Eastern Freshwater Program, 2011. [17] Charles J. Colbourn. Network resilience. SIAM Journal on Algebraic Discrete Methods, 8(3):404?409, 1987. [18] Santiago Saura and Luc??a Pascual-Hortal. A new habitat availability index to integrate connectivity in landscape conservation planning: Comparison with existing indices and application to a case study. Landscape and Urban Planning, 83:91?103, 2007. [19] Santiago Saura and Josep Torne. Conefor sensinode 2.2: A software package for quantifying the importance of habitat patches for landscape connectivity. Environmental Modelling & Software, 24(1):135?139, 2009. [20] Kevin McGarigal, Bradley W. Compton, Scott D. Jackson, Ethan Plunkett, Kasey Rolih, Theresa Portante, and Eduard Ene. Conservation assessment and prioritization system (CAPS). Technical report, Department of Environmental Conservation, Univ. of Massachusetts Amherst, 2011. 9
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Constrained convex minimization via model-based excessive gap Quoc Tran-Dinh and Volkan Cevher Laboratory for Information and Inference Systems (LIONS) ? Ecole Polytechnique F?ed?erale de Lausanne (EPFL), CH1015-Lausanne, Switzerland {quoc.trandinh, volkan.cevher}@epfl.ch Abstract We introduce a model-based excessive gap technique to analyze first-order primaldual methods for constrained convex minimization. As a result, we construct firstorder primal-dual methods with optimal convergence rates on the primal objective residual and the primal feasibility gap of their iterates separately. Through a dual smoothing and prox-center selection strategy, our framework subsumes the augmented Lagrangian, alternating direction, and dual fast-gradient methods as special cases, where our rates apply. 1 Introduction In [1], Nesterov introduced a primal-dual technique, called the excessive gap, for constructing and analyzing first-order methods for nonsmooth and unconstrained convex optimization problems. This paper builds upon the same idea for constructing and analyzing algorithms for the following a class of constrained convex problems, which captures a surprisingly broad set of applications [2, 3, 4, 5]: (1) f ? := minn {f (x) : Ax = b, x ? X } , x?R n where f : R ? R ? {+?} is a proper, closed and convex function; X ? Rn is a nonempty, closed and convex set; and A ? Rm?n and b ? Rm are given. In the sequel, we show how Nesterov?s excessive gap relates to the smoothed gap function for a variational inequality that characterizes the optimality condition of (1). In the light of this connection, we enforce a simple linear model on the excessive gap, and use it to develop efficient first-order methods to numerically approximate an optimal solution x? of (1). Then, we rigorously characterize how the following structural assumptions on (1) affect their computational efficiency: Structure 1: Decomposability. We say that problem (1) is p-decomposable if its objective function f and its feasible set X can be represented as follows: Xp Yp f (x) := fi (xi ), and X := Xi , (2) i=1 i=1 where xi ? Rni ,PXi ? Rni , fi : Rni ? R ? {+?} is proper, closed and convex for p i = 1, . . . , p, and i=1 ni = n. Decomposability naturally arises in machine learning applications such as group sparsity linear recovery, consensus optimization, and duality of empirical risk minimization problems [5]. As an important example, a composite convex minimization problem minx1 {f1 (x1 ) + f2 (Kx1 )} can be cast into (1) with a 2-decomposable structure using an intermediate variable x2 = Kx1 to represent the linear constraints. Decomposable structure immediately supports parallel and distributed implementations in synchronous hardware architectures. Structure 2: Proximal tractability. By proximal tractability, we mean that the computation of the following operation with a given proper, closed and convex function g is ?efficient? (e.g., by a closed form solution or by polynomial time algorithms) [6]: proxg (z) := arg minn {g(w) + (1/2)kw ? zk2 }. (3) w?R z When the constraint z ? Z is available, we consider the proximal operator of g(?) + ?Z (?) instead of g, where ?Z is the indicator function of Z. Many smooth and non-smooth functions have tractable proximal operators such as norms, and the projection onto a simple set [3, 7, 4, 5]. 1 Scalable algorithms for constrained convex minimization and their limitations. We can obtain scalable numerical solutions of (1) when we augment the objective f with simple penalty functions on the constraints. Despite the fundamental difficulties in choosing the penalty parameter, this approach enhances our computational capabilities as well as numerical robustness since we can apply modern proximal gradient, alternating direction, and primal-dual methods. Unfortunately, existing approaches invariably feature one or both of the following two limitations: Limitation 1: Non-ideal convergence characterizations. Ideally, the convergence rate characterization of a first-order algorithm for solving (1) must simultaneously establish for its iterates xk ? X both on the objective residual f (xk ) ? f ? and on the primal feasibility gap kAxk ? bk of its linear constraints. The constraint feasibility is critical so that the primal convergence rate has any significance. Rates on a joint of the objective residual and feasibility gap is not necessarily meaningful since (1) is a constrained problem and f (xk ) ? f ? can easily be negative at all times as compared to the unconstrained setting, where we trivially have f (xk ) ? f ? ? 0. Hitherto, the convergence results of state-of-the-art methods are far from ideal; see Table 1 in [28]. Most algorithms have guarantees in the ergodic sense [8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14] with non-optimal rates, which diminishes the practical performance; they rely on special function properties to improve convergence rates on the function and feasibility [12, 15], which reduces the scope of their applicability; they provide rates on dual functions [16], or a weighted primal residual and feasibility score [13], which does not necessarily imply convergence on the primal residual or the feasibility; or they obtain convergence rate on the gap function value sequence composed both the primal and dual variables via variational inequality and gap function characterizations [8, 10, 11], where the rate is scaled by a diameter parameter of the dual feasible set which is not necessary bounded. Limitation 2: Computational inflexibility. Recent theoretical developments customize algorithms to special function classes for scalability, such as convex functions with global Lipschitz gradient and strong convexity. Unfortunately, these algorithms often require knowledge of function class parameters (e.g., the Lipschitz constant and the strong convexity parameter); they do not address the full scope of (1) (e.g., with self-concordant [barrier] functions or fully non-smooth decompositions); and they often have complicated algorithmic implementations with backtracking steps, which can create computational bottlenecks. These issues are compounded by their penalty parameter selection, which can significantly decrease numerical efficiency [17]. Moreover, they lack a natural ability to handle p-decomposability in a parallel fashion at optimal rates. Our specific contributions To this end, this paper addresses the question: ?Is it possible to efficiently solve (1) using only the proximal tractability assumption with rigorous global convergence rates on the objective residual and the primal feasibility gap?? The answer is indeed positive provided that there exists a solution in a bounded feasible set X . Surprisingly, we can still leverage favorable function classes for fast convergence, such as strongly convex functions, and exploit p-decomposability at optimal rates. Our characterization is radically different from existing results, such as in [18, 8, 19, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13]. Specifically, we unify primal-dual methods [20, 21], smoothing (both for Bregman distances and for augmented Lagrangian functions) [22, 21], and the excessive gap function technique [1] in one. As a result, we develop an efficient algorithmic framework for solving (1), which covers augmented Lagrangian method [23, 24], [preconditioned] alternating direction method-of-multipliers ([P]ADMM) [8] and fast dual descent methods [18] as special cases. Based on the new technique, we establish rigorous convergence rates for a few well-known primaldual methods, which is optimal (in the sense of first order black-box models [25]) given our particular assumptions. We also discuss adaptive strategies for trading-off between the objective residual |f (xk )?f ? | and the feasibility gap kAxk ?bk, which enhance practical performance. Finally, we describe how strong convexity of f can be exploited, and numerically illustrate theoretical results. 2 Preliminaries 2.1. A semi-Bregman distance. Let Z be a nonempty, closed convex set in Rnz . A nonnegative, continuous and ?b -strongly convex function b is called a ?b -proximity function or prox-function of Z if Z ? dom (b). Then zc := argminz?Z b(z) exists and is unique, called the center point of ?) := b(? b. Given a smooth ?b -prox-function b of Z (with ?b = 1), we define db (z, z z) ? b(z) ? ? ? dom (b), as the Bregman distance between z and z ? given b. As an example, ?b(z)T (? z?z), ?z, z ?) = (1/2)kz ? z ?k22 , which is the Euclidean distance. with b(z) := (1/2)kzk22 , we have db (z, z 2 In order to unify both the Bregman distance and augmented Lagrangian smoothing methods, we introduce a new semi-Bregman distance db (Sx, Sxc ) between x and xc , given matrix S. Since S is not necessary square, we use the prefix ?semi? for this measure. We also denote by: S DX := sup{db (Sx, Sxc ) : x, xc ? X }, S the semi-diameter of X . If X is bounded, then 0 ? DX < +?. (4) 2.2. The dual problem of (1). Let L(x, y) := f (x) + yT (Ax ? b) be the Lagrange function of (1), where y ? Rm is the Lagrange multipliers. The dual problem of (1) is defined as: g ? := maxm g(y), (5) y?R where g is the dual function, which is defined as: g(y) := min{f (x) + yT (Ax ? b)}. x?X (6) Let us denote by x? (y) the solution of (6) for a given y ? Rm . Corresponding to x? (y), we also define the domain of g as dom (g) := {y ? Rm : x? (y) exists}. If f is continuous on X and if X is bounded, then x? (y) exists for all y ? Rm . Unfortunately, g is nonsmooth, and numerical solutions of (5) are difficult [25]. In general, we have g(y) ? f (x) which is the weak-duality condition in convex analysis. To guarantee strong duality, i.e., f ? = g ? for (1) and (5), we need an assumption: Assumption A. 1. The solution set X ? of (1) is nonempty. The function f is proper, closed and convex. In addition, either X is a polytope or the Slater condition holds, i.e.: {x ? Rn : Ax = b}? relint(X ) 6= ?, where relint(X ) is the relative interior of X . Under Assumption A.1, the solution set Y ? of (5) is also nonempty and bounded. Moreover, the strong duality holds, i.e., f ? = g ? . Any point (x? , y? ) ? X ? ? Y ? is a primal-dual solution to (1) and (5), and is also a saddle point of L, i.e., L(x? , y) ? L(x? , y? ) ? L(x, y? ), ?(x, y) ? X ? Rm . 2.3. Mixed-variational inequality formulation and the smoothed gap We use w :=  function.  AT y n m [x; y] ? R ? R to denote the primal-dual variable, and F (w) := to denote a partial b ? Ax Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) mapping. Then, we can write the optimality condition of (1) as: f (x) ? f (x? ) + F (w? )T (w ? w? ) ? 0, ?w ? X ? Rm , (7) m which is known as the mixed-variational inequality (MVIP) [26]. If we define W := X ? R and:  G(w? ) := max f (x? ) ? f (x) + F (w? )T (w? ? w) , (8) w?W then G is known as the Auslender gap function of (7) [27]. By the definition of F , we can see that:  G(w? ) := max f (x? ) ? f (x) ? (Ax ? b)T y? = f (x? ) ? g(y? ) ? 0. (x,y)?W ? It is clear that G(w ) = 0 if and only if w? := [x? ; y? ] ? W ? := X ? ? Y ? ?i.e., the strong duality. Since G is generally nonsmooth, we strictly smooth it by adding an augmented convex function: d?? (w) ? d?? (x, y) := ?db (Sx, Sxc ) + (?/2)kyk2 , (9) where db is a Bregman distance, S is a given matrix, and ?, ? > 0 are smoothness parameters. The smoothed gap function for G is defined as:  ? := max f (? ? T (w ? ? w) ? d?? (w) , G?? (w) x) ? f (x) + F (w) (10) w?W where F is defined in (7). The function G?? can be considered as smoothed gap function for the MVIP (7). By the definition of G and G?? , we can easily show that: ? ? G(w) ? ? G?? (w) ? + max{d?? (w) : w ? W}, G?? (w) (11) which is key to develop the algorithm in the next section. ? ? can be computed as: Problem (10) is convex, and its solution w?? (w) ( ?  x? (? y) := argmin f (x)+yT (Ax?b)+?db (Sx, Sxc ) ? ? ? x?X ? := [x? (? w?? (w) y); y? (? x)] ? (12) y?? (? x) := ? ?1 (A? x ? b). In this case, the following concave function:  g? (y) := min f (x) + yT (Ax ? b) + ?db (Sx, Sxc ) , (13) x?X can be considered as a smooth approximation of the dual function g defined by (6). 3 2.4. Bregman distance smoother vs. augmented Lagrangian smoother. Depending on the choice of S and xc , we deal with two smoothers as follows: 1. If we choose S = I, the identity matrix, and xc is then center point of b, then we obtain a Bregman distance smoother. 2. If we choose S = A, and xc ? X such that Axc = b, then we have the augmented Lagrangian smoother. Clearly, with both smoothing techniques, the function g? is smooth and concave. Its gradient is Lipschitz continuous with the Lipschitz constant Lg? := ? ?1 kAk2 and Lg? := ? ?1 , respectively. 3 Construction and analysis of a class of first-order primal-dual algorithms 3.1. Model-based excessive gap technique for (1). Since G(w? ) = 0 iff w? = [x? ; y? ] is ? k } such that a primal-dual optimal solution of (1)-(5). The goal is to construct a sequence {w k k ? ? ) ? 0, which implies that {w ? } converges to w . As suggested by (11), if we can construct G(w ? k } and {(?k , ?k )} such that G?k ?k (w ? k ) ? 0+ as ?k ?k ? 0+ , then G(w ? k ) ? 0. two sequences {w Inspired by Nesterov?s excessive gap idea in [1], we construct the following model-based excessive gap condition for (1) in order to achieve our goal. ? k ? W and (?k , ?k ) > 0, a new point w ? k+1 ? Definition 1 (Model-based Excessive Gap). Given w W and (?k+1 , ?k+1 ) > 0 so that ?k+1 ?k+1 < ?k ?k is said to be firmly contractive (w.r.t. G?? defined by (10)) when it holds for G?k ?k that: ? k+1 ) ? (1 ? ?k )Gk (w ? k ) ? ?k , Gk+1 (w (14) where Gk := G?k ?k , ?k ? [0, 1) and ?k ? 0.  k ? and {(?k , ?k )} satisfy (14), then we have Gk (w ? k ) ? ?k G0 (w ? 0 ) ? ?k From Definition 1, if w Qk?1 Pk?1 Qj?1 ? 0 ) ? 0, by induction, where ?k := j=0 (1 ? ?j ) and ?k := ?0 + j=1 i=0 (1 ? ?i )?j . If G0 (w k ? k then we can bound the objective residual |f (? x ) ? f | and the primal feasibility kA? x ? bk of (1):  k ? k?0 ? W and {(?k , ?k )}k?0 ? R2++ be Lemma 1 ([28]). Let G?? be defined by (10). Let w the sequences that satisfy (14). Then, it holds that:    ? S S 1/2 ? , x k ) ? f ? ? ?k D X ) DY ? f (? + (2?k ?k DX ? 2?k DY (15) S 1/2 k ? ) , + (2?k ?k DX kA? x ? bk ? 2?k DY ? where DY := min {ky? k2 : y? ? Y ? }, which is the norm of a minimum norm dual solutions. Hence, we can derive algorithms based (?k , ?k ) with a predictable convergence rate via (15). In the sequel, we manipulate ?k and ?k to do just that in order to preserve (14) a? la Nesterov [1]. Finally, ? k ? X is an ?-solution of (1) if |f (? we say that x xk ) ? f ? | ? ? and kA? xk ? bk ? ?. ? 0 ) ? 0. 3.2. Initial points. We first show how to compute an initial point w0 such that G0 (w 0 0 0 0 ? := [? ? ] ? W is computed by: x ;y Lemma 2 ([28]). Given xc ? X , w ( 0  ? m ? x = x?0 (0 ) := arg min f (x) + (?0 /2)db (Sx, Sx0c ) , x?X ?0 y = y??0 (? x0 ) := ?0?1 (A? x0 ? b). (16) ? g , where L ? g is the Lipschitz ? 0 ) ? ??0 dp (S? satisfies G?0 ?0 (w x0 , Sxc ) ? 0 provided that ?0 ?0 ? L constant of ?g? with g? given Subsection 2.4. 3.3. An algorithmic template. Algorithm 1 combines the above ingredients for solving (1). We ? k+1 ]. In observe that the key computational step of Algorithm 1 is Step 3, where we update [? xk+1 ; y the algorithm, we provide two update schemes (1P2D) and (2P1D) based on the updates of the primal or dual variables. The primal step x??k (? yk ) is calculated via (12). At line 3 of (2P1D), the S operator prox?f is computed as:  ? ) := argmin f (x) + y ? T A(x ? x ? ) + ? ?1 db (Sx, S? proxS x, y x) , (17) ?f (? x?X where we overload the notation of the proximal operator prox defined above. At Step 2 of Algorithm 1, if we choose S := I, i.e., db (Sx, Sxc ) := db (x, xc ) for xc being the center point of b, then we set ? g := kAk2 . If S := A, i.e., db (Sx, Sxc ) := (1/2)kAx ? bk2 , then we set L ? g := 1. L Theorem 1 characterizes three variants of Algorithm 1, whose proof can be found in [28]. 4 Algorithm 1: (A primal-dual algorithmic template using model-based excessive gap) Inputs: Fix ?0 > 0. Choose c0 ? (?1, 1]. Initialization: p ?1 ? g 1: Compute a0 := 0.5(1+c0 + 4(1?c0 )+(1+c0 )2 , ?0 := a?1 0 , and ?0 := ?0 L (c.f. the text). 0 ?0 2: Compute [? x ; y ] as (16) in Lemma 2. For k = 0 to kmax , perform: 3: If stopping criterion, terminate. Otherwise, use one of the following update schemes: ? k ? ? ? x := (1 ? ?k )? xk + ?k x??k (? yk ) ? := ?k?1 (A? y xk ? b), ? ? ? ? ? ?k ? kk ?1 y := ?k+1 (A? xk ? b) ? := (1 ? ?k )? ? k? , y yk + ?k y (2P1D) : (1P2D) : k+1 k ? k+1 S k k ? x := (1?? )? x +? x yk ), ? ? ) := prox?k+1 f (? x ,y ? x ? k k ?k(? ? ? ? k+1 ? k+1 k ? k k k ? := y ? +?k Ax?k(? y y )?b . ? ? . y := (1 ? ?k )? y + ?k y 4: Update ?k+1 := (1 ? ?k )?k and ?p k+1 := (1 ? ck ?k )?k. Update ck+1 from ck (optional). 5: Update ak+1 := 0.5 1 + ck+1 + 4a2k + (1 ? ck+1 )2 and set ?k+1 := a?1 k+1 . End For  k k ? ) be the sequence generated by Algorithm 1 after k iterations. Then: Theorem 1. Let (? x ,y ? ? g = 1, and ck := 0, then the If S = A, i.e., using the augmented Lagrangian smoother, ?0 := L (1P2D) update satisfies: ( ? 8DY kA? xk ?bk2 ? (k+1) 2, (18) 1 k 2 ? k k ? ? 2 kA? x ?bk2 ?DY kA? x ?bk2 ? f (? x )?f ? 0, for all k ? 0. As a ? consequence, the worst-case analytical complexity of Algorithm 1 to achieve an ? k is O( ?). ?-solution x ? ? g = kAk, and ck := 1, then, for the If S = I, i.e., using the Bregman distance smoother, ?0 := L (2P1D) scheme, we have: ? I ( ? ) kAk(2DY + 2DX , kA? xk ?bk ? k+1 (19) (2P1D) : ? I kA? xk ?bk ? f (? xk ) ? f ? ? kAk . ?DY D k+1 X Similarly, if ?0 := have: ? 2 2kAk K+1 and ck := 0 for all k = 0, 1, . . . , K, then, for the (1P2D) scheme, we ? I ? ? ) 2 2kAk(DY + DX K , kA? x ?bk ? (K+1) ? (1P2D) : (20) 2 2kAk I K K ? ? ?D? kA? x ?bk ? f (? x )?f ? (K+1) DX . Y  ? k of (1) is O ??1 . Hence, the worst-case analytical complexity to achieve an ?-solution x ? ? The (1P2D) scheme has close relationship to some well-known primal dual methods we describe below. Unfortunately, 1P2D has the drawback of fixing the total number of iterations a priori, which 2P1D can avoid at the expense of one more proximal operator calculation at each iteration. 3.4. Impact of strong convexity. We can improve the above schemes when f ? F? , i.e., f is strongly convex with parameter ?f > 0. The dual function g given in (6) is smooth and Lipschitz 2 gradient with Lgf := ??1 f kAk . Let us illustrate this when S = I and using the (1P2D) scheme as: ? ? ? k := (1??k )? yk +?k y??k (? xk ), ? y k+1 k ? ? := (1??k )? x +?k x (? yk ), (1P2D? ) x ? 1 ? k k+1 k ? y ? ? + Lg Ax (? y )?b . := y f We can still choose the starting point as in (16) with ?0 := Lgf . The parameters ?k and ?k at Steps p 4 and 5 of Algorithm 1 are updated as ?k+1 := (1 ? ?k )?k , and ?k+1 := ?2k ( ?k2 + 4 ? ?k ), where ? ?0 := Lgf and ?0 := ( 5 ? 1)/2. The following corollary illustrates the convergence of Algorithm 1 using (1P2D? ); see [28] for the detail proof. 5  k k ? ) k?0 be generated by Algorithm 1 using (1P2D? ). Then: Corollary 1. Let f ? F? and (? x ,y kA? xk ? bk2 ? 4kAk2 ? D? , and ? DY kA? xk ? bk ? f (? xk ) ? f ? ? 0. ?f (k + 2)2 Y Moreover, we also have k? xk ? x? k ? 4kAk (k+2)?f ? DY . It is important to note that, when f ? F? , we only have one smoothness parameter ? and, hence, we do not need to fix the number of iterations a priori (compared with [18]). 4 Algorithmic enhancements through existing methods Our framework can directly instantiate concrete variants of some popular primal-dual methods for (1). We illustrate three connections here and establish one convergence result for the second variant. We also borrow adaptation heuristics from other algorithms to enhance our practical performance. 4.1. Proximal-point methods. We can choose xkc := x??k?1 (? yk?1 ). This makes Algorithm 1 similar to the proximal-based decomposition algorithm in [29], which employs the proximal term ? ?k?1 ) with the Bregman distance db . The convergence analysis can be found in [28]. db (?, x 4.2. Primal-dual hybrid gradient (PDHG). When f is 2-decomposable, i.e., f (x) := f1 (x1 ) + f2 (x2 ), we can choose xkc by applying one gradient step to the augmented Lagrangian term as:  k g1 := xk1 ?kA1 k?2 AT1 (A1 xk1 +A2 xk2 ?b), xkc := [g1k ; g2k ] with (PADMM) k g2k := xk2 ?kA2 k?2 AT2 (A1 xk+1 1 +A2 x2 ? b). In this case, (1P2D) leads to a new variant of PADMM in [8] or PDHG in [9].  k k ? ) k?0 be a sequence generated by (1P2D) in Algorithm 1 using Corollary 2 ([28]). Let (? x ,y xkc as in (PADMM). If ?0 := ? ? ? 2 2kAk2 K+1 and ck := 0 for all k = 0, 1, . . . , K, then we have kA? xK ?bk ? ? ?D? kA? xK ?bk ? f (? xK ) ? f ? Y ? ? ? 2 2kAk(DY +DX ) , (K+1) ? 2 2kAk 2 (K+1) DX , (21) ? k : x, x ? ? X }. where DX := 4 max {kx ? x 4.4. ADMM. When f is 2-decomposable as f (x) := f1 (x1 ) + f2 (x2 ), we can choose db , S and  + A2 x2 ? bk2 . Then xkc such that db (Sx, Sxc ) := (1/2) kA1 x1 + A2 xk ? bk2 + kA1 xk+1 1 Algorithm 1 reduces to a new variant of ADMM. Its convergence guarantee is fundamentally as same as Corollary 2. More details of the algorithm and its convergence can be found in [28]. 4.5. Enhancements of our schemes. For the PADMM and ADMM methods, a great deal of adaptation techniques has been proposed to enhance their convergence. We can view some of these techniques in the light of model-based excessive gap condition. For instance, Algorithm 1 decreases the smoothed gap function G?k ?k as illustrated in Definition 1. The actual decrease is then given by S S f (? xk ) ? f ? ? ?k (DX ? ?k /?k ). In practice, Dk := DX ? ?k /?k can be dramatically smaller S than DX in the early iterations. This implies that increasing ?k can improve practical performance. Such a strategy indeed forms the basis of many adaptation techniques in PADMM, and ADMM. Specifically, if ?k increases, then ?k also increases and ?k decreases. Since ?k measures the primal feasibility gap Fk := kA? xk ? bk due to Lemma 1, we should only increase ?k if the feasibility gap Fk is relatively high. Indeed, in the case xkc := [g1k ; g2k ], we can compute the dual feasibility gap as Hk := ?k kAT1 A2 ((? x?2 )k+1 ? (? x?2 )k )k. Then, if Fk ? sHk for some s > 0, we increase ?k+1 := c?k for some c > 1. We use ck = c := 1.05 in practice. We can also decrease the S parameter ?k in (1P2D) by ?k+1 := (1 ? ck ?k )?k , where ck := db (Sx??k (? yk ), Sxc )/DX ? [0, 1] k+1 ? k+1 S after or during the update of (? x ,y ) as in (2P1D) if we know the estimate DX . 5 Numerical illustrations 5.1. Theoretical vs. practical bounds. We demonstrate the empirical performance of Algorithm 1 w.r.t. its theoretical bounds via a basic non-overlapping sparse-group basis pursuit problem:  Xn g minn wi kxgi k2 : Ax = b, kxk? ? ? , (22) x?R i=1 6 where ? > 0 is the signal magnitude, and gi and wi ?s are the group indices and weights, respectively. 5 2000 4000 6000 8000 ?5 Theoretical bound Basic 2P1D algorithm 2P1D algorithm ?10 0 10000 2000 8000 10000 ?5 10 ?10 0 2000 4000 6000 2000 8000 10000 0 10 ?5 10 ?10 10 ?15 10 4000 6000 8000 0 # i t e r at i on s 2000 4000 6000 # i t e r at i on s 0 10 ?5 10 Theoretical bound Basic 1P2D algorithm 1P2D algorithm ?10 10 0 10000 2000 8000 10000 6000 8000 10000 8000 10000 5 10 Theoretical bound Basic 1P2D algorithm 1P2D algorithm 0 10 ?5 10 ?10 10 4000 # i t e r at i on s # i t e r at i on s | f ( x k ) ? f ? | i n l og-s c al e 0 0 5 10 Theoretical bound Basic 2P1D algorithm 2P1D algorithm kA x k ? b k i n l og-s c al e | f ( x k ) ? f ? | i n l og-s c al e 6000 10 5 10 10 4000 ?5 # i t e r at i on s # i t e r at i on s 5 10 0 10 10 0 kA x k ? b k i n l og-s c al e 10 | f ( x k ) ? f ? | i n l og-s c al e kA x k ? b k i n l og-s c al e | f ( x k ) ? f ? | i n l og-s c al e 0 10 ?5 10 10 10 0 10 5 5 10 0 2000 4000 6000 # i t e r at i on s 8000 kA x k ? b k i n l og-s c al e 5 10 10000 10 0 10 ?5 10 ?10 10 ?15 10 0 2000 4000 6000 # i t e r at i on s Figure 1: Actual performance vs. theoretical bounds: [top row] the decomposable Bregman distance smoother (S = I) and [bottom row] the augmented Lagrangian smoother (S = A). In this test, we fix xc = 0n and db (x, xc ) := (1/2)kxk2 . Since ? is given, we can evaluate DX numerically. By solving (22) with the SDPT3 interior-point solver [30] p up to the accuracy 10?8 , we ? ? g , while, in the (1P2D) can estimate DY and f ? . In the (2P1D) scheme, we set ?0 = ?0 = L ? ?1 4 scheme, we set ?0 := 2 2kAk(K + 1) with K := 10 and generate the theoretical bounds defined in Theorem 1. We test the performance of the four variants using a synthetic data: n = 1024, m = bn/3c = 341, ng = bn/8c = 128, and x\ is a bng /8c-sparse vector. Matrix A are generated randomly using the iid standard Gaussian and b := Ax\ . The group indices gi is also generated randomly (i = 1, ? ? ? , ng ). The empirical performance of two variants: (2P1D) and (1P2D) of Algorithm 1 is shown in Figure 1. The basic algorithm refers to the case when xkc := xc = 0n and the parameters are not tuned. Hence, the iterations of the basic (1P2D) use only 1 proximal calculation and applies A and AT once each, and the iterations of the basic (2P1D) use 2 proximal calculations and applies A twice and AT once. In contrast, (2P1D) and (1P2D) variants whose iterations require one more application of AT for adaptive parameter updates. As can be seen from Figure 1 (row 1) that the empirical performance of the basic variants roughly follows the O(1/k) convergence rate in terms of |f (? xk )?f ? | and kA? xk ?bk2 . The deviations from the bound are due to the increasing sparsity of the iterates, which improves empirical convergence. With a kick-factor of ck = ?0.02/?k and adaptive xkc , both turned variants (2P1D) and (1P2D) significantly outperform theoretical predictions. Indeed, they approach x? up to 10?13 accuracy, i.e., k? xk ? x? k ? 10?13 after a few hundreds of iterations. Similarly, Figure 1 (row 2) illustrates the actual performance vs. the theoretical bounds O(1/k 2 ) by using the augmented Lagrangian smoother. Here, we solve the subproblems (13) and (17) by using FISTA [31] up to 10?8 accuracy as suggested in [28]. In this case, the theoretical bounds and the actual performance of the basis variants are very close to each other both in terms of |f (? xk ) ? f ? | k and kA? x ? bk2 . When the parameter ?k is updated, the algorithms exhibit a better performance. 5.2. Binary linear support vector machine. This example is concerned with the following binary linear support vector machine problem: Xm  minn F (x) := `j (yj , wjT x ? bj ) + g(x) , (23) j=1 x?R where `j (s, ? ) is the Hinge loss function given by `j (s, ? ) := max {0, 1 ? s? } = [1 ? s? ]+ , wj m is the column of a given matrix W ? Rm?n , b ? Rn is the bias vector, y ? {?1, +1} is a 2 classifier vector g is a given regularization function, e.g., g(x) := (?/2)kxk for the `2 -regularizer or g(x) := ?kxk1 for the `1 -regularizer, where ? > 0 is a regularization parameter. By introducing a slack variable r = Wx ? b, we can write (23) in terms of (1) as: n Xm o min ` (y , r ) + g(x) : Wx ? r = b . j j j n m x?R ,r?R j=1 7 (24) Now, we apply the (1P2D) variant to solve (24). We test this algorithm on (24) and compare it with LibSVM [32] using two problems from the LibSVM data set available at http://www.csie. ntu.edu.tw/?cjlin/libsvmtools/datasets/. The first problem is a1a, which has p = 119 features and N = 1605 data points, while the second problem is news20, which has p = 10 3550 191 features and N = 190 996 data points. We compare Algorithm 1 and the LibSVM solver in terms of the final value F (xk ) of the original objective function F , the computational time, and the classification accuracy ca? := 1 ?  PN  ?1 k N j=1 sign(Wx ? r) 6= y) of both training and test data set. We randomly select 30% data in a1a and news20 to form a test set, and the remaining 70% data is used for training. We perform 10 runs and compute the average results. These average results are plotted in Fig. 2 for two separate problems, respectively. The upper and lower bounds show the maximum and minimum values of these 10 runs. 1.5 1 0 1P2D LibSVM 0 200 400 600 800 0.86 0.84 0.82 0.8 0.78 0.76 1P2D LibSVM 0.74 1000 0 P ar ame t e r h or i z on ( ? ? 1) x 10 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 1P2D LibSVM 0 0 200 400 600 800 400 600 800 0.8 0.78 0.76 1000 1000 P ar ame t e r h or i z on ( ? ? 1) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 1P2D LibSVM 200 400 600 800 8 6 4 0 200 400 600 800 1P2D LibSVM 0 1000 0 1000 P ar ame t e r h or i z on ( ? ? 1) 200 400 600 800 1000 P ar ame t e r h or i z on ( ? ? 1) The CPU time [second] The classification accuracy (test data) 850 1 0 10 P ar ame t e r h or i z on ( ? ? 1) 1 0.5 12 2 1P2D LibSVM 0.74 P ar ame t e r h or i z on ( ? ? 1) The classification accuracy (training set) T h e ob j e c t i v e val u e F ( x k ) 4 200 14 0.82 The classification accuracy (training data) The objective values 7 0.84 ?2 The classification accuracy (test set) 0.5 0.88 16 800 0.9 750 CPU time [second] 2 0.86 The classification accuracy (test set) 2.5 The classification accuracy (training set) T h e ob j e c t i v e val u e s F ( x k ) 3 The CPU time [second] The classification accuracy (test data) The classification accuracy (training data) 0.9 The CPU time [second] The objective values 8 x 10 3.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 700 650 600 550 500 1P2D LibSVM 0.5 0 200 400 600 800 P ar ame t e r h or i z on ( ? ? 1) 1000 1P2D LibSVM 450 400 0 200 400 600 800 1000 P ar ame t e r h or i z on ( ? ? 1) Figure 2: The average performance results of the two algorithms on the a1a (first row) and news20 (second row) problems. As can be seen from these results that both solvers give relatively the same objective values, the accuracy for these two problems, while the computational of (1P2D) is much lower than LibSVM. We note that LibSVM becomes slower when the parameter ? becomes smaller due to its active-set strategy. The (1P2D) algorithm is almost independent of the regularization parameter ?, which is different from active-set methods. In addition, the performance of (1P2D) can be improved by taking account its parallelization ability, which has not fully been exploited yet in our implementation. 6 Conclusions We propose a model-based excessive gap (MEG) technique for constructing and analyzing firstorder primal-dual methods that numerically approximate an optimal solution of constrained convex optimization problems (1). Thanks to a combination of smoothing strategies and MEG, we propose, to the best of our knowledge, the first primal-dual algorithmic schemes for (1) that theoretically obtain optimal convergence rates directly without averaging the iterates and that seamlessly handle the p-decomposability structure. In addition, our analysis techniques can be simply adapt to handle inexact oracle produced by solving approximately the primal subproblems (c.f. [28]), which is important for the augmented Lagrangian versions with lower-iteration counts. We expect a deeper understanding of MEG and different smoothing strategies to help us in tailoring adaptive update strategies for our schemes (as well as several other connected and well-known schemes) in order to further improve the empirical performance. Acknowledgments. 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Learning to Search in Branch-and-Bound Algorithms? He He Hal Daum?e III Department of Computer Science University of Maryland College Park, MD 20740 {hhe,hal}@cs.umd.edu Jason Eisner Department of Computer Science Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, MD 21218 jason@cs.jhu.edu Abstract Branch-and-bound is a widely used method in combinatorial optimization, including mixed integer programming, structured prediction and MAP inference. While most work has been focused on developing problem-specific techniques, little is known about how to systematically design the node searching strategy on a branch-and-bound tree. We address the key challenge of learning an adaptive node searching order for any class of problem solvable by branch-and-bound. Our strategies are learned by imitation learning. We apply our algorithm to linear programming based branch-and-bound for solving mixed integer programs (MIP). We compare our method with one of the fastest open-source solvers, SCIP; and a very efficient commercial solver, Gurobi. We demonstrate that our approach achieves better solutions faster on four MIP libraries. 1 Introduction Branch-and-bound (B&B) [1] is a systematic enumerative method for global optimization of nonconvex and combinatorial problems. In the machine learning community, B&B has been used as an inference tool in MAP estimation [2, 3]. In applied domains, it has been applied to the ?inference? stage of structured prediction problems (e.g., dependency parsing [4, 5], scene understanding [6], ancestral sequence reconstruction [7]). B&B recursively divides the feasible set of a problem into disjoint subsets, organized in a tree structure, where each node represents a subproblem that searches only the subset at that node. If computing bounds on a subproblem does not rule out the possibility that its subset contains the optimal solution, the subset can be further partitioned (?branched?) as needed. A crucial question in B&B is how to specify the order in which nodes are considered. An effective node ordering strategy guides the search to promising areas in the tree and improves the chance of quickly finding a good incumbent solution, which can be used to rule out other nodes. Unfortunately, no theoretically guaranteed general solution for node ordering is currently known. Instead of designing node ordering heuristics manually for each problem type, we propose to speed up B&B search by automatically learning search heuristics that are adapted to a family of problems. ? Non-problem-dependent learning. While our approach learns problem-specific policies, it can be applied to any family of problems solvable by the B&B framework. We use imitation learning to automatically learn the heuristics, free of the trial-and-error tuning and rule design by domain experts in most B&B algorithms. ? Dynamic decision-making. Our decision-making process is adaptive on three scales. First, it learns different strategies for different problem types. Second, within a problem type, it can evaluate the hardness of a problem instance based on features describing the solving progress. Third, within a problem instance, it adapts the searching strategy to different levels of the B&B tree and makes decisions based on node-specific features. ? This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 0964681. 1 +? training examples: +? ?13/3 prune: < +? y?1 ?16/3 ?13/3 x?1 ?3 ?3 x?1 x?2 INF y?2 x = 1# y=2 +? ?16/3 ub = ?3# lb = ?16/3 x = 1# y=1 global lower and upper bound y?2 ub = +?# lb = ?16/3 x = 5/3# +? y=1 ?13/3 +? node expansion order x = 5/2# y = 3/2 ?13/2 +? ?22/5 ub = ?4# lb = ?4 x = 5/3# y=2 x?2 optimal node fathomed node ub = ?3# lb = ?22/5 x = 1# y = 12/5 INF y?3 ?4 ?3 ?4 ?3 x = 0# y=3 min ?2x ? y# s.t. 3x ? 5y ? 0# 3x + 5y ? 15# x ? 0, y ? 0# x, y ? Z Figure 1: Using branch-and-bound to solve an integer linear programming minimization. ? Easy incorporation of heuristics. Most hand-designed strategies handle only a few heuristics, and they set weights on different heuristics by domain knowledge or manual experimentation. In our model, multiple heuristics can be simply plugged in as state features for the policy, allowing a hybrid ?heuristic? to be learned effectively. We assume that a small set of solved problems are given at training time and the problems to be solved at test time are of the same type. We learn a node selection policy and a node pruning policy from solving the training problems. The node selection policy repeatedly picks a node from the queue of all unexplored nodes, and the node pruning policy decides if the popped node is worth expanding. We formulate B&B search as a sequential decision-making process. We design a simple oracle that knows the optimal solution in advance and only expands nodes containing the optimal solution. We then use imitation learning to learn policies that mimic the oracle?s behavior without perfect information; these policies must even mimic how the oracle would act in states that the oracle would not itself reach, as such states may be encountered at test time. We apply our approach to linear programming (LP) based B&B for solving mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problems, and achieve better solutions faster on 4 MILP problem libraries than Gurobi, a recent fast commercial solver competitive with Cplex, and SCIP, one of the fastest open-source solvers [8]. 2 The Branch-and-Bound Framework: An Application in Mixed Integer Linear Programming Consider an optimization problem of minimizing f over a feasible set F, where F is usually discrete. B&B uses a divide Sp and conquer strategy: F is recursively divided into its subsets F1 , F2 , . . . , Fp such that F = i=1 Fi . The recursion tree is an enumeration tree of all feasible solutions, whose nodes are subproblems and edges are the partition conditions. Slightly abusing notation, we will use Fi to refer to both the subset and its corresponding B&B node from now on. A (convex) relaxation of each subproblem is solved to provide an upper/lower bound for that node and its descendants. We denote the upper and lower bound at node i by `ub (Fi ) and `lb (Fi ) respectively where `ub and `lb are bounding functions. A common setting where B&B is ubiquitously applied is MILP. A MILP optimization problem has linear objective and constraints, and also requires specified variables to be integer. We assume we are minimizing the objective function in MILP from now on. At each node, we drop the integrality constraints and solve its LP relaxation. We present a concrete example in Figure 1. The optimization problem is shown in the lower right corner. At node i, a local lower bound (shown in lower half of each circle) is found by the LP solver. A local upper bound (shown in upper part of the circle) is available if a feasible solution is found at this node. We automatically get an upper bound if the LP solution happens to be integer feasible, or we may obtain it by heuristics. B&B maintains a queue L of active nodes, starting with a single root node on it. At each step, we pop a node Fi from L using a node selection strategy, and compute its bounds. A node Fi 2 root (problem) solution rank nodes push children Algorithm 1 Policy Learning (?S? , ?P? ) Yes No pop fathom? No Yes queue empty? Yes prune? No (1) (1) ?P = ?P? , ?S = ?S? , DS = {}, DP = {} for k = 1 to N do for Q in problem set Q do (Q) (Q) (k) (k) DS , DP C OLLECT E XAMPLE(Q, ?P , ?S ) (Q) (Q) DS DS [ D S , D P DP [ D P (k+1) (k+1) ?S , ?P train classifiers using DS and DP (k) (k) return Best ?S , ?P on dev set Figure 2: Our method at runtime (left) and the policy learning algorithm (right). Left: our policy-guided branch-and-bound search. Procedures in the rounded rectangles (shown in blue) are executed by policies. Right: the DAgger learning algorithm. We start by using oracle policies ?S? and ?P? to solve problems in Q and collect examples along oracle trajectories. In each iteration, we retrain our policies on all examples collected so far (training sets DD and DS ), then collect additional examples by running the newly learned policies. The C OLLECT E XAMPLE procedure is described in Algorithm 2. is fathomed (i.e., no further exploration in its subtree) if one of the following cases is true: (a) `lb (Fi ) is larger than the current global upper bound, which means all solutions in its subtree can not possibly be better than the incumbent; (b) `lb (Fi ) = `ub (Fi ); at this point, B&B has found the best solution in the current subtree; (c) The subproblem is infeasible. In Figure 1, fathomed nodes are shown in double circles and infeasible nodes are labeled by ?INF?. If a node is not fathomed, it is branched into children of Fi that are pushed onto L. Branching conditions are shown next to each edge in Figure 1. The algorithm terminates when L is empty or the gap between the global upper bound and lower bound achieves a specified tolerance level. In the example in Figure 1, we follow a DFS order. Starting from the root node, the blue arrows points to the next node popped from L to be branched. Updated global lower and upper bounds after a node expansion is shown on the board under each branched node. 3 Learning Control Policies for Branch-and-Bound A good search strategy should find a good incumbent solution early and identify non-promising nodes before they are expanded. However, naively applying a single heuristic through the whole process ignores the dynamic structure of the B&B tree. For example, DFS should only be used at nodes that promise to lead to a good feasible solution that may replace the incumbent. Best-boundfirst search can quickly discard unpromising nodes, but should not be used frequently at the top levels of the tree since the bound estimate is not accurate enough yet. Therefore, we propose to learn policies adaptive to different problem types and different solving stages. There are two goals in a B&B search: finding the optimal solution and proving its optimality. There is a trade-off between the two goals: we may be able to return the optimal solution faster if we do not invest the time to prove that all other solutions are worse. Thus, we will aim only to search for a ?good? (possibly optimal) solution without a rigorous proof of optimality. This allows us to prune unpromising portions of the search tree more aggressively. In addition, obtaining a certificate of optimality is usually of secondary priority for practical purposes. We assume the branching strategy and the bounding functions are given. We guide search on the enumeration tree by two policies. Recall that B&B maintains a priority queue of all nodes to be expanded. The node selection policy determines the priorities used. Once the highest-priority node is popped, the node pruning policy decides whether to discard or expand it given the current progress of the solver. This process continues iteratively until the tree is empty or the gap reaches some specified tolerance. All other techniques used during usual branch-and-bound search can still be applied with our method. The process is shown in Figure 3. 3 Oracle. Imitation learning requires an oracle at training time to demonstrate the desired behavior. Our ideal oracle would expand nodes in an order that minimized the number of node expansions subject to finding the optimal solution. In real branch-and-bound systems, however, the optimal sequence of expanded nodes cannot be obtained without substantial computation. After all, the effect of expanding one node depends not only on local information such as the local bounds it obtains, but also on how many pruned nodes it may lead to and many other interacting strategies such as branching variable selection. Therefore, given our single goal of finding a good solution quickly, we design an oracle that finds the optimal solution without a proof of optimality. We assume optimal solutions are given for training problems.1 Our node selection oracle ?S? will always expand the node whose feasible set contains the optimal solution. We call such a node an optimal node. For example, in Figure 1, the oracle knows beforehand that the optimal solution is x = 1, y = 2, thus it will only search along edges y 2 and x ? 1; the optimal nodes are shown in red circles. All other non-optimal nodes are fathomed by the node pruning oracle ?P? , if not already fathomed by standard rules discussed in Section 2. We denote the optimal node at depth d by Fd? where d 2 [0, D] and F0? is the root node. Imitation Learning. We formulate the above approach as a sequential decision-making process, defined by a state space S, an action space A and a policy space ?. A trajectory consists of a sequence of states s1 , s2 , . . . , sT and actions a1 , a2 , . . . , aT . A policy ? 2 ? maps a state to an action: ?(st ) = at . In our B&B setting, S is the whole tree of nodes visited so far, with the bounds computed at these nodes. The node selection policy ?S has an action space {select node Fi : Fi 2 queue of active nodes}, which depends on the current state st . The node pruning policy ?P is a binary classifier that predicts a class in {prune, expand}, given st and the most recently selected node (the policy is only applied when this node was not fathomed). At training time, the oracle provides an optimal action a? for any possible state s 2 S. Our goal is to learn a policy that mimics the oracle?s actions along the trajectory of states encountered by the policy. Let : Fi ! Rp and : Fi ! Rq be feature maps for ?S and ?P respectively. The imitation problem can be reduced to supervised learning [9, 10, 11]: the policy (classifier/regressor) takes a feature-vector description of the state st and attempts to predict the oracle action a?t . A generic node selection policy assigns a score to each active node and pops the highest-scoring one. For example, DFS uses a node?s depth as its score; best-bound-first search uses a node?s lower bound as its score. Following this scheme, we define the score of a node i as wT (Fi ) and ?S (st ) = select node arg maxFi 2L wT (Fi ), where w is a learned weight vector and L is the queue of active nodes. We obtain w by learning a linear ranking function that defines a total order on the set of nodes on the priority queue: wT ( (Fi ) (Fi0 )) > 0 if Fi > Fi0 . During training, we only specify the order between optimal nodes and non-optimal nodes. However, at test time, a total order is obtained by the classifier?s automatic generalization: non-optimal nodes close to optimal nodes in the feature space will be ranked higher. DAgger is an iterative imitation learning algorithm. It repeatedly retrains the policy to make decisions that agree better with the oracle?s decisions, in those situations that were encountered when running past versions of the policy. Thus, it learns to deal well with a realistic distribution of situations that may actually arise at test time. Our training algorithm is shown in Algorithm 1. Algorithm 2 illustrates how we collect examples during B&B. In words, when pushing an optimal node to the queue, we want it ranked higher than all nodes currently on the queue; when pushing a nonoptimal node, we want it ranked lower than the optimal node on the queue if there is one (note that at any time there can be at most one optimal node on the queue); when popping a node from the queue, we want it pruned if it is not optimal. In the left part of Figure 1, we show training examples collected from the oracle policy. 4 Analysis We show that our method has the following upper bound on the expected number of branches. Theorem 1. Given a node selection policy which ranks some non-optimal node higher than an optimal node with probability ? , a node pruning policy which expands a non-optimal node with probability ?1 and prunes an optimal node with probablity ?2 , assuming ?, ?1 , ?2 2 [0, 0.5] under the 1 For prediction tasks, the optimal solutions usually come for free in the training set; otherwise, an off-theshelf solver can be used. 4 Algorithm 2 Running B&B policies and collect example for problem Q procedure C OLLECT E XAMPLE(Q, ?S , ?P ) (Q) (Q) (Q) L = {F0 }, training set DS = {}, DP = {}, i 0 while L = 6 ; do (Q) Fk ?S pops a node from L, n? ?o (Q) (Q) if Fk (Q) (Q) is optimal then DP DP [ (Fk ), expand n? ?o (Q) (Q) (Q) else DP DP [ (Fk ), prune (Q) (Q) if Fk is not fathomed and ?P (Fk ) = expand then (Q) (Q) (Q) (Q) (Q) Fi+1 , Fi+2 expand Fk , L L [ {Fi+1 , Fi+2 }, i ?(A) if an optimal node Fn? d (Q) DS (Q) (Q) DS (Q) return DS , DP [ 2 L then ?(Q) (Fd ) i+2 ? o (Q) (Q) (Q) (Q)? (Fi0 ), 1 : Fi0 2 L and Fi0 6= Fd policy?s state distribution, we have expected number of branches ? where (?, ?1 , ?2 ) = ? 1 ?2 1 2??1 + ?2 1 2?1 (?, ?1 , ?2 ) D X (1 ?2 ) + (1 d=0 ? d ?2 ) D+1 (1 1 ! ?)?1 + 1 D, 2?1 ??1 . Let the optimal node at depth d be Fd? . Note that at each push step, there is at most one optimal node on the queue. Consider a queue having one optimal node Fd? and m non-optimal nodes ranked before the optimal one. The following lemma is useful in our proof: Lemma 1. The average number of pops before we get to Fd? is 1 m 2??1 , among which the number 1 of branches is NB (m, opt) = 1 m? , and the number of non-optimal nodes pushed after Fd? is 2??1 ? ? 1 (1 ?) 1 Npush (m, opt) = 1 m? ?)2 + 2?(1 ?) = 2m? 2??1 2(1 1 2??1 , where opt indicates the situation where one optimal node is on the queue. Consider a queue having no optimal node and m non-optimal nodes, which means an optimal internal node has been pruned or the optimal leaf has been found. We have Lemma 2. The average number of pops to empty the queue is 1 m2?1 , among which the number of branches is NB (m, opt) = 1m?2?11 , where opt indicates the situation where no optimal node is on the queue. Proofs of the above two lemmas are given in Appendix A. Let T (Md , Fd? ) denote the number of branches until the queue is empty, after pushing Fd? to a queue with Md nodes. The total number of branches during the B&B process is T (0, F0? ). When pushing Fd? , we compare it with all M nodes on the queue, and the number of non-optimal nodes ranked before it follows a binomial distribution md ? Bin(?, Md ). We then have the following two cases: (a) Fd? will be pruned with probability ?2 : the expected number of branches is NB (md , opt); (b) Fd? will not be pruned with probability 1 ?2 : we first pop all nodes before Fd? , resulting in ? Npush (md , opt) new nodes after it; we then expand Fd? , get Fd+1 , and push it on a queue with Md+1 = Npush (md , opt) + Md md + 1 nodes. Thus the total expected number of branches is ? NB (md , opt) + T (Md+1 , Fd+1 ). The recursion equation is ? ? ? T (Md , Fd? )=Emd ?Bin(?,Md ) (1 ?2 ) NB (md , opt)+1+T (Md+1 , Fd+1 ) +?2 NB (Md , opt) . At termination, we have ? ? ? T (MD , FD )=EmD ?Bin(?,MD ) (1 ?2 ) NB (mD , opt)+NB (MD mD , opt) +?2 NB (MD , opt) . 5 Note that we ignore node fathoming in this recursion. The path of optimal nodes may stop at Fd? where d<D, thus T (Md , Fd? ) is an upper bound of the actual expected number of branches. The expectation over md can be computed by replacing md by ?Md since all terms are linear in md . Solving for T (0, F0? ) gives the upper bound in Theorem 1. Details are given in Appendix B. For the oracle, ?=?1 =?2 =0 and it branches at most D times when solving a problem. For nonoptimal policies, as for all pruning-based methods, our method bears the risk of missing the optimal solution. The depth at which the first optimal node is pruned follows a geometric distribution and its mean is 1/?2 . In practice, we can put higher weight on the class prune to learn a high-precision classifier (smaller ?2 ). 5 Experiments Datasets. We apply our method to LP-based B&B for solving MILP problems. We use four problem libraries suggested in [12]. MIK2 [13] is a set of MILP problems with knapsack constraints. Regions and Hybrid are sets of problems of determining the winner of a combinatorial auction, generated from different distributions by the Combinatorial Auction Test Suite (CATS)3 [14]. CORLAT [15] is a real dataset used for the construction of a wildlife corridor for grizzly bears in the Northern Rockies region. The number of variables ranges from 300 to over 1000; the number of constraints ranges from 100 to 500. Each problem set is split into training, test and development sets. Details of the datasets are presented in Appendix C. For each problem, we run SCIP until optimality, and take the (single) returned solution to be the optimal one for purposes of training. We exclude problems which are solved at the root in our experiment. Policy learning. For each problem set, we split its training set into equal-sized subsets randomly and run DAgger on one subset in each iteration until we have taken two passes over the entire set. Too many passes may result in overfitting for policies in later iterations. We use LIBLINEAR [16] in the step of training classifiers in Algorithm 1. Since mistakes during early stages of the search are more serious, our training places higher weight on examples from nodes closer to the root for both policies. More specifically, the example weights at each level of the B&B tree decay exponentially at rate 2.68/D where D is the maximum depth4 , corresponding to the fact that the subtree size increases exponentially. For pruning policy training, we put a higher weight (tuned from {1, 2, 4, 8}) on the class prune to counter data imbalance and to learn a high-precision classifier as discussed earlier. The class weight and SVM?s penalty parameter C are tuned for each library on its development set. The features we used can be categorized into three groups: (a) node features, computed from the current node, including lower bound5 , estimated objective, depth, whether it is a child/sibling of the last processed node; (b) branching features, computed from the branching variable leading to the current node, including pseudocost, difference between the variable?s value in the current LP solution and the root LP solution, difference between its value and its current bound; (c) tree features, computed from the B&B tree, including global upper and lower bounds, integrality gap, number of solutions found, whether the gap is infinite. The node selection policy includes primarily node features and branching feature, and the node pruning policy includes primarily branching features and tree features. To combine these features with depth of the node, we partition the tree into 10 uniform levels, and features at each level are stacked together. Since the range of objective values varies largely across problems, we normalize features related to the bound by dividing its actual value by the root node?s LP objective. All of the above features are cheap to obtain. Actually they use information recorded by most solvers , thus do not result in much overhead. Results. We compare with SCIP (Version 3.1.0) (using Cplex 12.6 as the LP solver), and Gurobi (Version 5.6.2). SCIP?s default node selection strategy switches between depth-first search and best-first search according a plunging depth computed online. Gurobi applies different strategies (including pruning) for subtrees rooted at different nodes [17, 18]. Both solvers adopt the branch2 Downloaded from http://ieor.berkeley.edu/?atamturk/data Available at http://www.cs.ubc.ca/?kevinlb/CATS/ 4 The rate is chosen such that examples at depth 1 are weighted by 5 and examples at 0.6D by 1. 5 If the node is a child of the most recent processed node, its LP is not solved yet and its bounds will be the same as its parent?s. 3 6 Dataset MIK Regions Hybrid CORLAT Ours speed OGap 4.69? 2.30? 1.15? 1.63? 0.04? 7.21? 0.00? 8.99% Ours (prune only) IGap 2.29% 3.52% 3.22% 22.64% speed OGap 4.45? 2.45? 1.02? 4.44? 0.04? 7.68? 0.00? 8.91% IGap SCIP (time) Gurobi (node) OGap OGap IGap IGap 2.29% 3.02? 1.89% 0.45? 2.99% 3.58% 6.80? 3.48% 21.94? 5.67% 3.55% 0.79? 4.76% 3.97? 5.20% 17.62% 6.67% fail 2.67% fail Table 1: Performance on solving MILP problems from four libraries. We compare two versions of our algorithm (one with both search and pruning policies and one with only the pruning policy) with SCIP with a node limit (SCIP (node)) and Gurobi with a time limit (Gurobi (time)). We report results on three measures: speedup with respect to SCIP in default setting, the optimality gap (OGap), computed as the percentage difference between the best objective value found and the optimal objective value, the integrality gap (IGap), computed as the percentage difference between the upper and lower bounds. Here ?fail? means the solver cannot find a feasible solution. The numbers are averaged over all instances in each dataset. Bolded scores are statistically tied with the best score according to a t-test with rejection threshold 0.05. and-cut framework combined with presolvers and primal heuristics. Our solver is implemented based on SCIP and also calls Cplex 12.6 to solve LPs. We compare runtime with SCIP in its default setting, which does not terminate before a proved status (e.g. solved, infeasible, unbounded). To compare the tradeoff between runtime and solution quality, we first run our dynamic B&B algorithm and obtain the average runtime; we then run SCIP with the same time limit. Since runtime is rather implementation-dependent and Gurobi is about four times faster than SCIP [8], we use the number of nodes explored as time measure for Gurobi. As Gurobi and SCIP apply roughly the same techniques (e.g. cutting-plane generation, heuristics) at each node, we believe fewer nodes explored implies runtime improvement had we implemented our algorithm based on Gurobi. Similarly, we set Gurobi?s node limit to the average number of nodes explored by our algorithm. The results are summarized in Table 1. Our method speeds up SCIP up to a factor of 4.7 with less than 1% loss in objectives of the found solutions on most datasets. On CORLAT, the loss is larger (within 10%) since these problems are generally harder; both SCIP and Gurobi failed to find even one feasible solution given a time/node limit on some problems. Note that SCIP in its default setting works better on Regions and Hybrid, and Gurobi better on the other two, while our adaptive solver performs well consistently. This shows that effectiveness of strategies are indeed problem dependent. Ablation analysis. To assess the effect of node selection and pruning separately, we report details of their classification performance in Tabel 2. Both policies cost negligible time compared with the total runtime. We also show result of our method with the pruning policy only in Table 1. We can see that the major contribution comes from pruning. We believe there are two main reasons: a) there may not be enough information in the features to differentiate an optimal node from non-optimal ones; b) the effect of node selection may be covered by other interacting techniques, for instance, a non-optimal node could lead to better bounds due to the application of cutting planes. Informative features. We rank features on each level of the tree according to the absolute values of their weights for each library. Although different problem sets have its own specific weights and rankings of features, a general pattern is that closer to the top of the tree the node selection policy prefers nodes which are children of the most recently solved node (resembles DFS) and have better bounds; in lower levels it still prefers deeper nodes but also relies on pseudocosts of the branching variable and estimates of the node?s objective, since these features get more accurate as the search goes deeper. The node pruning policy tends to not pruning when there are few solutions found and the gap is infinite; it also relies much on differences between the branching variable?s value, its value in the root LP solution and its current bound. Cross generalization. To testify that our method learns strategies specific to the problem type, we apply the learned policies across datasets, i.e., using policies trained on dataset A to solve problems in dataset B. We plot the result as a heatmap in Figure 3, using a measure combining runtime and the 7 MIK T ions CORLA Reg MIK Hybrid 0.90 Policy Dataset 0.60 0.45 Regions 0.30 Hybrid 1 / (time + opt. gap) 0.75 CORLAT 0.15 Test Dataset 0.00 Figure 3: Performance of policies cross datasets. The y-axis shows datasets on which a policy is trained. The x-axis shows datasets on which a policy is tested. Each block shows 1/ (runtime+optimality gap), where runtime and gap are scaled to [0, 1] for experiments on the same test dataset. Values in each row are normalized by the diagonal element on that row. Dataset prune prune err comp time (%) rate FP FN err selectprune MIK Regions Hybrid CORLAT 0.48 0.55 0.02 0.24 0.01 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.46 0.32 0.98 0.76 0.34 0.32 0.44 0.80 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.02 0.01 Table 2: Classification performance of the node selection and pruning policy. We report the percentage of nodes pruned (prune rate), false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) error rate of the pruning policy, comparison error of the selection policy (only for comparisons between one optimal and one non-optimal node), as well as the percentage of time used on decision making. optimality gap. We invert the values so that hotter blocks in the figure indicate better performance. Note that there is a hot diagonal. In addition, MIK and CORLAT are relatively unique: policies trained on other datasets lose badly there. On the other hand, Hybrid is more friendly to other policies. This probably suggests that for this library most strategies works almost equally well. 6 Related Work There is a large amount of work on applying machine learning to make dynamic decisions inside a long-running solver. The idea of learning heuristic functions for combinatorial search algorithms dates back to [19, 20, 21]. Recently, [22] aims to balance load in parallel B&B by predicting the subtree size at each node. Nodes of the largest predicted subtree size are further split into smaller problems and sent to the distributed environment with other nodes in a batch. In [23], a SVM classifier is used to decide if probing (a bound tightening technique) should be used at a node in B&B. However, both prior methods handle a relatively simple setting where the model only predicts information about the current state, so that they can simply train by standard supervised learning. This is manifestly not the case for us. Since actions have influence over future states, standard supervised learning does not work as well as DAgger, an imitation learning technique that focuses on situations most likely to be encountered at test time. Our work is also closely related to speedup learning [24], where the learner observes a solver solving problems and learns patterns from past experience to speed up future computation. [25] and [26] learned ranking functions to control beam search (a setting similar to ours) in planning and structured prediction respectively. [27] used supervised learning to imitate strong branching in B&B for solving MIP. The primary distinction in our work is that we explicitly formulate the problem as a sequential decision-making process, thus take aciton?s effects on future into account. We also add the pruning step besides prioritization for further speedup. 7 Conclusion We have presented a novel approach to learn an adaptive node searching order for different classes of problems in branch-and-bound algorithms. Our dynamic solver learns when to leave an unpromising area and when to stop for a good enough solution. We have demonstrated on multiple datasets that compared to a commercial solver, our approach finds solutions with a better objective and establishes a smaller gap, using less time. In the future, we intend to include a time budget in our model so that we can achieve a user-specified trade-off between solution quality and searching time. We are also interested in applying multi-task learning to transfer policies between different datasets. 8 References [1] A. H. Land and A. G. Doig. An automatic method of solving discrete programming problems. 28:497? 520, 1960. [2] Min Sun, Murali Telaprolu, Honglak Lee, and Silvio Savarese. Efficient and exact MAP-MRF inference using branch and bound. In AISTATS, 2012. [3] J?org Hendrik Kappes, Markus Speth, Gerhard Reinelt, and Christoph Schn?orr. Towards efficient and exact MAP-inference for large scale discrete computer vision problems via combinatorial optimization. In CVPR, 2013. [4] Sebastian Riedel, David A. Smith, and Andrew McCallum. Parse, price and cut - delayed column and row generation for graph based parsers. In EMNLP, 2012. [5] Xian Qian and Yang Liu. Branch and bound algorithm for dependency parsing with non-local features. In TACL, 2013. [6] Alexander G. Schwing and Raquel Urtasun. Efficient exact inference for 3D indoor scene understanding. In ECCV, 2012. [7] Tal Pupko, Itsik Pe?er, Masami Hasegawa, Dan Graur, and Nir Friedman. A branch-and-bound algorithm for the inference of ancestral amino-acid sequences when the replacement rate varies among sites: Application to the evolution of five gene families. 18:1116?1123, 2002. [8] Hans Mittelmann. Mixed integer linear programming benchmark (miplib2010), 2014. [9] Umar Syed and Robert E. Schapire. A reduction from apprenticeship learning to classification. In NIPS, 2010. [10] Pieter Abbeel and Andrew Y. Ng. Apprenticeship learning via inverse reinforcement learning. In ICML, 2004. [11] St?ephane. Ross, Geoffrey J. Gordon, and J. Andrew. Bagnell. A reduction of imitation learning and structured prediction to no-regret online learning. In Proceedings of AISTATS, 2011. [12] Frank Hutter, Holger Hoos, and Kevin Leyton-Brown. Automated configuration of mixed integer programming solvers. 2010. [13] Alper Atamt?urk. On the facets of the mixedinteger knapsack polyhedron. 98:145?175, 2003. [14] Kevin Leyton-Brown, Mark Pearson, and Yoav Shoham. Towards a universal test suite for combinatorial auction algorithms. In Proceedings of ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce, 2000. [15] Carla P. Gomes, Willem-Jan van Hoeve, and Ashish Sabharwal. Connections in networks: a hybrid approach. 2008. [16] Rong-En Fan, Kai-Wei Chang, Cho-Jui Hsieh, Xiang-Rui Wang, and Chih-Jen Lin. LIBLINEAR: A library for large linear classification. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 9:1871?1874, 2008. [17] Zonghao Gu, Robert E. Bixby, and Ed Rothberg. The latest advances in mixed-integer programming solvers. [18] Ed Rothberg. Parallelism in linear and mixed integer programming. [19] Matthew Lowrie and Benjamin Wah. Learning heuristic functions for numeric optimization problems. In Proceedings of the Twelfth Annual International Computer Software & Applications Conference, 1988. [20] Justin A. Boyan and Andrew W. Moore. Learning evaluation functions for global optimization and boolean satisfiability. In National Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 1998. [21] Sudeshna Sarkar, P. P. Chakrabarti, and Sujoy Ghose. Learning while solving problems in best first search. 28:535?242, 1998. [22] Lars Otten and Rina Dechter. A case study in complexity estimation: Towards parallel branch-and-bound over graphical models. In UAI, 2012. [23] Giacomo Nannicini, Pietro Belotti, Jon Lee, Jeff Linderoth, Franc?ois Margot, and Andreas W?achter. A probing algorithm for minlp with failure prediction by svm. 2011. [24] Alan Fern. Speedup learning. 2007. [25] Yuehua Xu and Alan Fern. Learning linear ranking functions for beam search with application to planning. 10:1571?1610, 2009. [26] Hal Daum?e III and Daniel Marcu. Learning as search optimization: Approximate large margin methods for structured prediction. In ICML, 2005. [27] Alejandro Marcos Alvarez, Quentin Louveaux, and Louis Wehenkel. A supervised machine learning approach to variable branching in branch-and-bound. In ECML, 2014. 9
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Convex Deep Learning via Normalized Kernels ? Ozlem Aslan Dept of Computing Science University of Alberta, Canada ozlem@cs.ualberta.ca Xinhua Zhang Machine Learning Group NICTA and ANU xizhang@nicta.com.au Dale Schuurmans Dept of Computing Science University of Alberta, Canada dale@cs.ualberta.ca Abstract Deep learning has been a long standing pursuit in machine learning, which until recently was hampered by unreliable training methods before the discovery of improved heuristics for embedded layer training. A complementary research strategy is to develop alternative modeling architectures that admit efficient training methods while expanding the range of representable structures toward deep models. In this paper, we develop a new architecture for nested nonlinearities that allows arbitrarily deep compositions to be trained to global optimality. The approach admits both parametric and nonparametric forms through the use of normalized kernels to represent each latent layer. The outcome is a fully convex formulation that is able to capture compositions of trainable nonlinear layers to arbitrary depth. 1 Introduction Deep learning has recently achieved significant advances in several areas of perceptual computing, including speech recognition [1], image analysis and object detection [2, 3], and natural language processing [4]. The automated acquisition of representations is motivated by the observation that appropriate features make any learning problem easy, whereas poor features hamper learning. Given the practical significance of feature engineering, automated methods for feature discovery offer an important tool for applied machine learning. Ideally, automatically acquired features capture simple but salient aspects of the input distribution, upon which subsequent feature discovery can compose increasingly abstract and invariant aspects [5]; an intuition that appears to be well supported by recent empirical evidence [6]. Unfortunately, deep architectures are notoriously difficult to train and, until recently, required significant experience to manage appropriately [7, 8]. Beyond well known problems like local minima [9], deep training landscapes also exhibit plateaus [10] that arise from credit assignment problems in backpropagation. An intuitive understanding of the optimization landscape and careful initialization both appear to be essential aspects of obtaining successful training [11]. Nevertheless, the development of recent training heuristics has improved the quality of feature discovery at lower levels in deep architectures. These advances began with the idea of bottom-up, stage-wise unsupervised training of latent layers [12, 13] (?pre-training?), and progressed to more recent ideas like dropout [14]. Despite the resulting empirical success, however, such advances occur in the context of a problem that is known to be NP-hard in the worst case (even to approximate) [15], hence there is no guarantee that worst case versus ?typical? behavior will not show up in any particular problem. Given the recent success of deep learning, it is no surprise that there has been growing interest in gaining a deeper theoretical understanding. One key motivation of recent theoretical work has been to ground deep learning on a well understood computational foundation. For example, [16] demonstrates that polynomial time (high probability) identification of an optimal deep architecture can be achieved by restricting weights to bounded random variates and considering hard-threshold generative gates. Other recent work [17] considers a sum-product formulation [18], where guarantees can be made about the efficient recovery of an approximately optimal polynomial basis. Although these 1 treatments do not cover the specific models that have been responsible for state of the art results, they do provide insight into the computational structure of deep learning. The focus of this paper is on kernel-based approaches to deep learning, which offer a potentially easier path to achieving a simple computational understanding. Kernels [19] have had a significant impact in machine learning, partly because they offer flexible modeling capability without sacrificing convexity in common training scenarios [20]. Given the convexity of the resulting training formulations, suboptimal local minima and plateaus are eliminated while reliable computational procedures are widely available. A common misconception about kernel methods is that they are inherently ?shallow? [5], but depth is an aspect of how such methods are used and not an intrinsic property. For example, [21] demonstrates how nested compositions of kernels can be incorporated in a convex training formulation, which can be interpreted as learning over a (fixed) composition of hidden layers with infinite features. Other work has formulated adaptive learning of nested kernels, albeit by sacrificing convexity [22]. More recently, [23, 24] has considered learning kernel representations of latent clusters, achieving convex formulations under some relaxations. Finally, [25] demonstrated that an adaptive hidden layer could be expressed as the problem of learning a latent kernel between given input and output kernels within a jointly convex formulation. Although these works show clearly how latent kernel learning can be formulated, convex models have remained restricted to a single adaptive layer, with no clear paths suggested for a multi-layer extension. In this paper, we develop a convex formulation of multi-layer learning that allows multiple latent kernels to be connected through nonlinear conditional losses. In particular, each pair of successive layers is connected by a prediction loss that is jointly convex in the adjacent kernels, while expressing a non-trivial, non-linear mapping between layers that supports multi-factor latent representations. The resulting formulation significantly extends previous convex models, which have only been able to train a single adaptive kernel while maintaining a convex training objective. Additional algorithmic development yields an approach with improved scaling properties over previous approaches, although not yet at the level of current deep learning methods. We believe the result is the first fully convex training formulation of a deep learning architecture with adaptive hidden layers, which demonstrates some useful potential in empirical investigations. 2 Background To begin, consider a multi-layer conditional model where the input xi is an n dimensional feature vector and the output yi ? {0, 1}m is a multi-label target vector over m labels. For concreteness, consider a three-layer model (Figure 1). Figure 1: Multi-layer conditional models Here, the output of the first hidden layer is determined by multiplying the input, xi , with a weight matrix W ? Rh?n and passing the result through a nonlinear transfer ?1 , yielding ?i = ?1 (W xi ). Then, the output of the second layer is 0 determined by multiplying the first layer output, ?i , with a second weight matrix U ? Rh ?h and passing the result through a nonlinear transfer ?2 , yielding ?i = ?2 (U ?i ), etc. The final output is 0 ? i = ?3 (V ?i ), for V ? Rm?h . For simplicity, we will set h0 = h. then determined via y The goal of training is to find the weight matrices, W , U , and V , that minimize a training objective defined over the training data (with regularization). In particular, we assume the availability of t training examples {(xi , yi )}ti=1 , and denote the feature matrix X := (x1 , . . . , xt ) ? Rn?t and the label matrix Y := (y1 , . . . , yt ) ? Rm?t respectively. One of the key challenges for training arises from the fact that the latent variables ? := (?1 , . . . , ?t ) and ? := (?1 , . . . , ?t ) are unobserved. To introduce our main development, we begin with a reconstruction of [25], which proposed a convex formulation of a simpler two-layer model. Although the techniques proposed in that work are intrinsically restricted to two layers, we will eventually show how this barrier can be surpassed through the introduction of a new tool?normalized output kernels. However, we first need to provide a more general treatment of the three main obstacles to obtaining a convex training formulation for multi-layer architectures like Figure 1. 2.1 First Obstacle: Nonlinear Transfers The first key obstacle arises from the presence of the transfer functions, ?i , which provide the essential nonlinearity of the model. In classical examples, such as auto-encoders and feed-forward neural 2 networks, an explicit form for ?i is prescribed, e.g. a step or sigmoid function. Unfortunately, the imposition of a nonlinear transfer in any deterministic model imposes highly non-convex constraints of the form: ?i = ?1 (W xi ). This problem is alleviated in nondeterministic models like probabilistic networks (PFN) [26] and restricted Boltzman machines (RBMs) [12], where the nonlinear relationship between the output (e.g. ?i ) and the linear pre-image (e.g. W xi ) is only softly enforced via a nonlinear loss L that measures their discrepancy (see Figure 1). Such an approach was adopted by [25], where the values of the hidden layer responses (e.g. ?i ) were treated as independent variables whose values are to be optimized in conjunction with the weights. In the present case, if one similarly optimizes rather than marginalizes over hidden layer values, ? and ? (i.e. Viterbi style training), a generalized training objective for a multi-layer architecture (Figure 1) can be expressed: 2 2 2 min L1 (W X, ?) + 21 kW k + L2 (U ?, ?) + 12 kU k + L3 (V ?, Y ) + 21 kV k . 1 (1) W,U,V,?,? The nonlinear loss L1 bridges the nonlinearity introduced by ?1 , and L2 bridges the nonlinearity introduced by ?2 , etc. Importantly, these losses, albeit nonlinear, can be chosen to be convex in their first argument; for example, as in standard models like PFNs and RBMs (implicitly). In addition to these exponential family models, which have traditionally been the focus of deep learning research, continuous latent variable models have also been considered, e.g. rectified linear model [27] and the exponential family harmonium. In this paper, like [25], we will use large-margin losses which offer additional sparsity and simplifications. Unfortunately, even though the overall objective (1) is convex in the weight matrices (W, U, V ) given (?, ?), it is not jointly convex in all participating variables due to the interaction between the latent variables (?, ?) and the weight matrices (W, U, V ). 2.2 Second Obstacle: Bilinear Interaction Therefore, the second key obstacle arises from the bilinear interaction between the latent variables and weight matrices in (1). To overcome this obstacle, consider a single connecting layer, which consists of an input matrix (e.g. ?) and output matrix (e.g. ?) and associated weight matrix (e.g. U ): 2 min L(U ?, ?) + 12 kU k . (2) U By the representer theorem, it follows that the optimal U can be expressed as U = A?0 for some A ? Rm?t . Denote the linear response Z = U ? = A?0 ? = AK where K = ?0 ? is the input kernel matrix. Then tr(U U 0 ) = tr(AKA0 ) = tr(AKK ? KA0 ) = tr(ZK ? Z 0 ), where K ? is the Moore-Penrose pseudo-inverse (recall KK ? K = K and K ? KK ? = K ? ), therefore (2) = min L(Z, ?) + 12 tr(ZK ? Z 0 ). (3) Z This is essentially the value regularization framework [28]. Importantly, the objective in (3) is jointly convex in Z and K, since tr(ZK ? Z) is a perspective function [29]. Therefore, although the single layer model is not jointly convex in the input features ? and model parameters U , it is convex in the equivalent reparameterization (K, Z) given ?. This is the technique used by [25] for the output layer. Finally note that Z satisfies the constraint Z ? Rm?n ? := {U ? : U ? Rm?n }, which we will write as Z ? R? for convenience. Clearly it is equivalent to Z ? RK. 2.3 Third Obstacle: Joint Input-Output Optimization The third key obstacle is that each of the latent variables, ? and ?, simultaneously serve as the inputs and output targets for successive layers. Therefore, it is necessary to reformulate the connecting problem (2) so that it is jointly convex in all three components, U , ? and ?; and unfortunately (3) is not convex in ?. Although this appears to be an insurmountable obstacle in general, [25] propose an exact reformulation in the case when ? is boolean valued (consistent with the probabilistic assumptions underlying a PFM or RBM) by assuming the loss function satisfies an additional postulate. Postulate 1. L(Z, ?) can be rewritten as Lu (?0 Z, ?0 ?) for Lu jointly convex in both arguments. Intuitively, this assumption allows the loss to be parameterized in terms of the propensity matrix ?0 Z and the unnormalized output kernel ?0 ? (hence the superscript of Lu ). That is, the (i, j)-th component of ?0 Z stands for the linear response value of example j with respect to the label of the example i. The j-th column therefore encodes the propensity of example j to all other examples. This reparameterization is critical because it bypasses the linear response value, and relies solely on The terms kW k2 , kU k2 and kV k2 are regularizers, where the norm is the Frobenius norm. For clarity we have omitted the regularization parameters, relative weightings between different layers, and offset weights from the model. These components are obviously important in practice, however they play no key role in the technical development and removing them greatly simplifies the expressions. 1 3 the relationship between pairs of examples. The work [25] proposes a particular multi-label prediction loss that satisfies Postulate 1 for boolean target vectors ?i ; we propose an alternative below. Using Postulate 1 and again letting Z = U ?, one can then rewrite the objective in (2) as 2 Lu (?0 U ?, ?0 ?) + 12 kU k . Now if we denote N := ?0 ? and S := ?0 Z = ?0 U ? (hence 0 S ? ? R? = N RK), the formulation can be reduced to the following (see Appendix A): (2) = min Lu (S, N ) + 21 tr(K ? S 0 N ? S). (4) S Therefore, Postulate 1 allows (2) to be re-expressed in a form where the objective is jointly convex in the propensity matrix S and output kernel N . Given that N is a discrete but positive semidefinite matrix, a final relaxation is required to achieve a convex training problem. Postulate 2. The domain of N = ?0 ? can be relaxed to a convex set preserving sufficient structure. Below we will introduce an improved scheme for such relaxation. Although these developments support a convex formulation of two-layer model training [25], they appear insufficient for deeper models. For example, by applying (3) and (4) to the three-layer model of Figure 1, one obtains Lu1 (S1 , N1 )+ 12 tr(K ? S10 N1? S1 )+Lu2 (S2 , N2 )+ 12 tr(N1? S20 N2? S2 )+L3 (Z3 , Y )+ 12 tr(Z3 N2? Z30 ), where N1 = ?0 ? and N2 = ?0 ? are two latent kernels imposed between the input and output. Unfortunately, this objective is not jointly convex in all variables, since tr(N1? S20 N2? S2 ) is not jointly convex in (N1 , S2 , N2 ), hence the approach of [25] cannot extend beyond a single hidden layer. 3 Multi-layer Convex Modeling via Normalized Kernels Although obtaining a convex formulation for general multi-layer models appears to be a significant challenge, progress can be made by considering an alternative approach. The failure of the previous development in [25] can be traced back to (2), which eventually causes the coupled, non-convex regularization to occur between connected latent kernels. A natural response therefore is to reconsider the original regularization scheme, keeping in mind that the representer theorem must still be supported. One such regularization scheme appears has been investigated in the clustering literature [30, 31], which suggests a reformulation of the connecting model (2) using value regularization [28]: min L(U ?, ?) + 21 k?0 U k2 . (5) U Here k?0 U k2 replaces kU k2 from (2). The significance of this reformulation is that it still admits the representer theorem, which implies that the optimal U must be of the form U = (??0 )? A?0 for some A ? Rm?n . Now, since ? generally has full row rank (i.e. there are more examples than labels), one may execute a change of variables A = ?B. Such a substitution leads to the regularizer 0 ? (??0 )? ?B?0 2 , which can be expressed in terms of the normalized output kernel [30]: M := ?0 (??0 )? ?. (6) 0 ? The term (?? ) essentially normalizes the spectrum of the kernel ?0 ?, and it is obvious that all eigen-values of M are either 0 or 1, i.e. M 2 = M [30]. The regularizer can be finally written as 2 kM B?0 k = tr(M BKB 0 M ) = tr(M BKK ? KB 0 M ) = tr(SK ? S 0 ), where S := M BK. (7) It is easy to show S = ?0 Z = ?0 U ?, which is exactly the propensity matrix. As before, to achieve a convex training formulation, additional structure must be postulated on the loss function, but now allowing convenient expression in terms of normalized latent kernels. Postulate 3. The loss L(Z, ?) can be written as Ln (?0 Z, ?0 (??0 )? ?) where Ln is jointly convex in both arguments. Here we write Ln to emphasize the use of normalized kernels. Under Postulate 3, an alternative convex objective can be achieved for a local connecting model Ln (S, M ) + 21 tr(SK ? S 0 ), where S ? M RK. (8) Crucially, this objective is now jointly convex in S, M and K; in comparison to (4), the normalization has removed the output kernel from the regularizer. The feasible region {(S, M, K) : M  0, K  0, S ? M RK} is also convex (see Appendix B). Applying (8) to the first two layers and (3) to the output layer, a fully convex objective for a multi-layer model (e.g., as in Figure 1) is obtained: Ln1 (S1 , M1 ) + 12 tr(S1 K ? S10 ) + Ln2 (S2 , M2 ) + 21 tr(S2 M1? S20 ) + L3 (Z3 , Y ) + 12 tr(Z3 M2? Z30 ), (9) where S1 ? M1 RK, S2 ? M2 RM1 , and Z3 ? RM2 .2 All that remains is to design a convex relaxation of the domain of M (for Postulate 2) and to design the loss Ln (for Postulate 3). 2 Clearly the first layer can still use (4) with an unnormalized output kernel N1 since its input X is observed. 4 Convex Relaxation of the Domain of Output Kernels M 3.1 Clearly from its definition (6), M has a non-convex domain in general. Ideally one should design convex relaxations for each domain of ?. However, M exhibits some nice properties for any ?: M  0, M  I, tr(M ) = tr((??0 )? (??0 )) = rank(??0 ) = rank(?). (10) Here I is the identity matrix, and we also use M  0 to encode M 0 = M . Therefore, tr(M ) provides a convenient proxy for controlling the rank of the latent representation, i.e. the number of hidden nodes in a layer. Given a specified number of hidden nodes h, we may enforce tr(M ) = h. The main relaxation introduced here is replacing the eigenvalue constraint ?i (M ) ? {0, 1} (implied by M 2 = M ) with 0 ? ?i (M ) ? 1. Such a relaxation retains sufficient structure to allow, e.g., a 2-approximation of optimal clustering to be preserved even by only imposing spectral constraints [30]. Experimental results below further demonstrate that nesting preserves sufficient structure, even with relaxation, to capture relationships that cannot be recovered by shallower architectures. More refined constraints can be included to better account for the domain of ?. For example, if ? expresses target values for a multiclass classification (i.e. ?ij ? {0, 1}, ?0 1 = 1 where 1 is a vector of all one?s), we further have Mij ? 0 and M 1 = 1. If ? corresponds to multilabel classification where each example belongs to exactly k (out of the h) labels (i.e. ? ? {0, 1}h?t , ?0 1 = k1), then M can have negative elements, but the spectral constraint M 1 = 1 still holds (see proof in Appendix C). So we will choose the domains for M1 and M2 in (9) to consist of the spectral constraints: M := {0  M  I : M 1 = 1, tr(M ) = h}. (11) 3.2 A Jointly Convex Multi-label Loss for Normalized Kernels An important challenge is to design an appropriate nonlinear loss to connect each layer of the model. Rather than conditional log-likelihood in a generative model, [25] introduced the idea of a using large margin, multi-label loss between a linear response, z, and a boolean target vector, y ? {0, 1}h : ? y) = max(1 ? y + k z ? 1(y0 z)) L(z, (12) where 1 denotes the vector of all 1s. Intuitively this encourages the responses on the active labels, y0 z, to exceed k times the response of any inactive label, kzi , by a margin, where the implicit nonlinear transfer is a step function. Remarkably, this loss can be shown to satisfy Postulate 1 [25]. This loss can be easily adapted to the normalized case as follows. We first generalize the notion of margin to consider a a ?normalized label? (Y Y 0 )? y: L(z, y) = max(1 ? (Y Y 0 )? y + k z ? 1(y0 z)) To obtain some intuition, consider the multiclass case where k = 1. In this case, Y Y 0 is a diagonal matrix whose (i, i)-th element is the number of examples in each class i. Dividing by this number allows the margin requirement to be weakened for popular labels, while more focus is shifted to less represented labels. For a given set of t paired Pinput/output pairs (Z, Y ) the sum of the losses can then be compactly expressed as L(Z, Y ) = j L(zj , yj ) = ? (kZ ? (Y Y 0 )? Y ) + t ? tr(Y 0 Z), P where ? (?) := j maxi ?ij . This loss can be shown to satisfy that satisfies Postulate 3:3 Ln (S, M ) = ? (S ? k1 M ) + t ? tr(S), where S = Y 0 Z and M = Y 0 (Y Y 0 )? Y. (13) This loss can be naturally interpreted using the remark following Postulate 1. It encourages that the propensity of example j with respect to itself, Sjj , should be higher than its propensity with respect to other examples, Sij , by a margin that is defined through the normalized kernel M . However note this loss does not correspond to a linear transfer between layers, even in terms of the propensity matrix S or normalized output kernel M . As in all large margin methods, the initial loss (12) is a convex upper bound for an underlying discrete loss defined with respect to a step transfer. 4 Efficient Optimization Efficient optimization for the multi-layer model (9) is challenging, largely due to the matrix pseudoinverse. Fortunately, the constraints on M are all spectral, which makes it easier to apply conditional gradient (CG) methods [32]. This is much more convenient than the models based on unnormalized kernels [25], where the presence of both spectral and non-spectral constraints necessitated expensive algorithms such as alternating direction method of multipliers [33]. A simple derivation extends [25]: ? (kZ ? (Y Y 0 )? Y ) = max?:Rm?t :?0 1=1 tr(?0 (kZ ? (Y Y 0 )? Y )) = + max?:Rt?t :?0 1=1 k1 tr(?0 Y 0 (kZ ? (Y Y 0 )? Y )) = ? (Y 0 Z ? k1 M ). Here the second equality follows because + 0 for any ? ? Rm?t satisfying ?0 1 = 1, there must be an ? ? Rt?t + + satisfying ? 1 = 1 and ? = Y ?/k. 3 5 Algorithm 1: Conditional gradient algorithm to optimize f (M1 , M2 ) for M1 , M2 ? M. ? 1 and M ? 2 with some random matrices. 1 Initialize M 2 while s = 1, 2, . . . do ? 1, M ? 2 ) and G2 = ? f (M ? 1, M ? 2 ). 3 Compute the gradients G1 = ? f (M ?M1 ?M2 Compute the new bases M1s and M2s by invoking oracle (15) with G1 and  G2 respectively. Ps Ps ?i M1i , i=1 ?i M2i . Totally corrective update: min???s ,???s f i=1 ? 1 = Ps ?i M i and M ? 2 = Ps ?i M i ; break if stopping criterion is met. 6 Set M 1 2 i=1 i=1 ? 1, M ? 2 ). 7 return (M 4 5 Denote the objective in (9) as g(M1 , M2 , S1 , S2 , Z3 ). The idea behind our approach is to optimize f (M1 , M2 ) := min S1 ?M1 RK,S2 ?M2 RM1 ,Z3 ?RM2 g(M1 , M2 , S1 , S2 , Z3 ) (14) by CG; see Algorithm 1 for details. We next demonstrate how each step can be executed efficiently. Oracle problem in Step 4. This requires solving, given a gradient G (which is real symmetric), max tr(?GM ) ? max tr(?G(HM1 H + 1t 110 )), where H = I ? 1t 110 . (15) M ?M 0M1 I, tr(M1 )=h?1 Here we used Lemma 1 of [31]. By [34, Theorem 3.4], max0M1 I, tr(M1 )=h?1 tr(?HGHM1 ) = Ph?1 ? ? ? ? . . . are the leading eigenvalues of ?HGH. The maximum is attained i=1 ?i where Ph?1 1 0 2 at M1 = corresponding to ?i . The optimal solution to i=1 vi vi , where vi is the eigenvector Ph?1 argmaxM ?M tr(?GM ) can be recovered by i=1 vi vi0 + 1t 110 , which has low rank for small h. Totally corrective update in Step 5. This is the most computationally intensive step of CG:  Xs  Xs min f ?i M1i , ?i M2i , (16) ???s , ???s i=1 i=1 where ?s stands for the s dimensional probability simplex (sum up to 1). If one can solve (16) efficiently (which also provides the optimal S1 , S2 , Z3 in (14) for the optimal ? and ?), then the gradient of f can also be obtained easily by Danskin?s theorem (for Step 3 of Algorithm 1). However, the totally corrective update is expensive because given ? and ?, each evaluation of the objective f itself requires an optimization over S1 , S2 , and Z3 . Such a nested optimization can be prohibitive. A key idea is to show that this totally corrective update can be accomplished with considerably improved efficiency through the use of block coordinate descent [35]. Taking into account the structure of the solution to the oracle, we denote X X M1 (?) := ?i M1i = V1 D(?)V10 , and M2 (?) := ?i M2i = V2 D(?)V20 , (17) i i where D(?) = diag([?1 10h , ?2 10h , . . .]0 ) and D(?) = diag([?1 10h , ?2 10h , . . .]0 ). Denote P (?, ?, S1 , S2 , Z3 ) := g (M1 (?), M2 (?), S1 , S2 , Z3 ) . (18) Clearly S1 ? M1 (?)RK iff S1 = V1 A1 K for some A1 , S2 ? M2 (?)RM1 (?) iff S2 = V2 A2 M1 (?) for some A2 , and Z3 ? RM2 (?) iff Z3 = A3 M2 (?) for some A3 . So (16) is equivalent to min ???s , ???s ,A1 ,A2 ,A3 P (?, ?, V1 A1 K, V2 A2 M1 (?), A3 M2 (?)) = Ln1 (V1 A1 K, M1 (?)) + + + 1 2 tr(V1 A1 KA01 V10 ) Ln2 (V2 A2 M1 (?), M2 (?)) + 21 tr(V2 A2 M1 (?)A02 V20 ) L3 (A3 M2 (?), Y ) + 21 tr(A3 M2 (?)A03 ). (19) (20) (21) (22) Thus we have eliminated all matrix pseudo-inverses. However, it is still expensive because the size of Ai depends on t. To simplify further, assume X 0 , V1 and V2 all have full column rank.4 Denote B1 = A1 X 0 (note K = X 0 X), B2 = A2 V1 , B3 = A3 V2 . Noting (17), the objective becomes 4 This assumption is valid provided the features in X are linearly independent, since the bases (eigenvectors) accumulated through all iterations so far are also independent. The only exception is the eigen-vector 1 ? 1. But since ? and ? lie on a simplex, it always contributes a constant 1t 110 to M1 (?) and M2 (?). t 6 R(?, ?, B1 , B2 , B3 ) := Ln1 (V1 B1 X, V1 D(?)V10 ) + + + 1 2 tr(V1 B1 B10 V10 ) Ln2 (V2 B2 D(?)V10 , V2 D(?)V20 ) + 12 tr(V2 B2 D(?)B20 V20 ) L3 (B3 D(?)V20 , Y ) + 21 tr(B3 D(?)B30 ). (23) (24) (25) This problem is much easier to solve, since the size of Bi depends on the number of input features, the number of nodes in two latent layers, and the number of output labels. Due to the greedy nature of CG, the number of latent nodes is generally low. So we can optimize R by block coordinate descent (BCD), i.e. alternating between: 1. Fix (?, ?), and solve (B1 , B2 , B3 ) (unconstrained smooth optimization, e.g. by LBFGS). 2. Fix (B1 , B2 , B3 ), and solve (?, ?) (e.g. by LBFGS with projection to simplex). BCD is guaranteed to converge to a critical point when Ln1 , Ln2 and L3 are smooth.5 In practice, these losses can be made smooth by, e.g. approximating the max in (13) by a softmax. It is crucial to note that although both of the two steps are convex, R is not jointly convex in its variables. So in general, this alternating scheme can only produce a stationary point of R. Interestingly, we further show that any stationary point must provide a global optimal solution to P in (18). Theorem 1. Suppose (?, ?, B1 , B2 , B3 ) is a stationary point of R with ?i > 0 and ?i > 0. Assume X 0 , V1 and V2 all have full column rank. Then it must be a globally optimal solution to R, and this (?, ?) must be an optimal solution to the totally corrective update (16). See the proof in Appendix D. It is noteworthy that the conditions ?i > 0 and ?i > 0 are trivial to meet because CG is guaranteed to converge to optimal if ?i ? 1/s and ?i ? 1/s at each step s. 5 Empirical Investigation To investigate the potential of deep versus shallow convex training methods, and global versus local training methods, we implemented the approach outlined above for a three-layer model along with comparison methods. Below we use CVX3 and CVX2 to refer respectively to three and two-layer versions of the proposed model. For comparison, SVM1 refers to a one-layer SVM; and TS1a [37] and TS1b [38] refer to one-layer transductive SVMs; NET2 refers to a standard two-layer sigmoid neural network with hidden layer size chosen by cross-validation; and LOC3 refers to the proposed three-layer model with exact (unrelaxed) with local optimization. In these evaluations, we followed a similar transductive set up to that of [25]: a given set of data (X, Y ) is divided into separate training and test sets, (XL , YL ) and XU , where labels are only included for the training set. The training loss is then only computed on the training data, but the learned kernel matrices span the union of data. For testing, the kernel responses on test data are used to predict output labels. 5.1 Synthetic Experiments Our first goal was to compare the effective modeling capacity of a three versus two-layer architecture given the convex formulations developed above. In particular, since the training formulation involves a convex relaxation of the normalized kernel domain, M in (11), it is important to determine whether the representational advantages of a three versus two-layer architecture are maintained. We conducted two sets of experiments designed to separate one-layer from two-layer or deeper models, and two-layer from three-layer or deeper models. Although separating two from one-layer models is straightforward, separating three from two-layer models is a subtler question. Here we considered two synthetic settings defined by basic functions over boolean features: Parity: y = x1 ? x2 ? . . . ? xn , (26) Inner Product: y = (x1 ? xm+1 ) ? (x2 ? xm+2 ) ? . . . ? (xm ? xn ), where m = n2 . (27) It is well known that Parity is easily computable by a two-layer linear-gate architecture but cannot be approximated by any one-layer linear-gate architecture on the same feature space [39]. The IP problem is motivated by a fundamental result in the circuit complexity literature: any small weights threshold circuit of depth 2 requires size exp(?(n)) to compute (27) [39, 40]. To generate data from 5 Technically, for BCD to converge to a critical point, each block optimization needs to have a unique optimal solution. To ensure uniqueness, we used a method equivalent to the proximal method in Proposition 7 of [36]. 7 Error of CVX3 35 TS1a TS1b SVM1 NET2 CVX2 LOC3 CVX3 30 25 20 15 10 CIFAR 30.7 ?4.2 26.0 ?6.5 33.3 ?1.9 30.7 ?1.7 27.7 ?5.5 36 ?1.7 23.3 ?0.5 MNIST 16.3 ?1.5 16.0 ?2.0 18.3 ?0.5 15.3 ?1.7 12.7 ?3.2 22.0 ?1.7 13.0 ?0.3 USPS 12.7 ?1.2 11.0 ?1.7 12.7 ?0.2 12.7 ?0.4 9.7 ?3.1 12.3 ?1.1 9.0 ?0.9 COIL 16.0 ?2.0 20.0 ?3.6 16.3 ?0.7 15.3 ?1.4 14.0 ?3.6 17.7 ?2.2 9.0 ?0.3 Letter 5.7 ?2.0 5.0 ?1.0 7.0 ?0.3 5.3 ?0.5 5.7 ?2.9 11.3 ?0.2 5.7 ?0.2 10 15 20 25 30 35 Error of CVX2 (a) Synthetic results: Parity data. (b) Real results: Test error % (? stdev) 100/100 labeled/unlabeled. 50 Error of CVX3 45 40 35 30 25 20 TS1a TS1b SVM1 NET2 CVX2 LOC3 CVX3 CIFAR 32.0 ?2.6 26.0 ?3.3 32.3 ?1.6 30.7 ?0.5 23.3 ?3.5 28.2 ?2.3 19.2 ?0.9 MNIST 10.7 ?3.1 10.0 ?3.5 12.3 ?1.4 11.3 ?1.3 8.2 ?0.6 12.7 ?0.6 6.8 ?0.4 USPS 10.3 ?0.6 11.0 ?1.3 10.3 ?0.1 11.2 ?0.5 7.0 ?1.3 8.0 ?0.1 6.2 ?0.7 COIL 13.7 ?4.0 18.9 ?2.6 14.7 ?1.3 14.5 ?0.6 8.7 ?3.3 12.3 ?0.9 7.7 ?1.1 Letter 3.8 ?0.3 4.0 ?0.5 4.8 ?0.5 4.3 ?0.1 4.5 ?0.9 7.3 ?1.1 3.0 ?0.2 15 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Error of CVX2 (c) Synthetic results: IP data. (d) Real results: Test error % (? stdev) 200/200 labeled/unlabeled. Figure 2: Experimental results (synthetic data: larger dots mean repetitions fall on the same point). these models, we set the number of input features to n = 8 (instead of n = 2 as in [25]), then generate 200 examples for training and 100 examples for testing; for each example, the features xi were drawn from {0, 1} with equal probability. Then each xi was corrupted independently by a Gaussian noise with zero mean and variance 0.3. The experiments were repeated 100 times, and the resulting test errors of the two models are plotted in Figure 2. Figure 2(c) clearly shows that CVX3 is able to capture the structure of the IP problem much more effectively than CVX2, as the theory suggests for such architectures. In almost every repetition, CVX3 yields a lower (often much lower) test error than CVX2. Even on the Parity problem (Figure 2(a)), CVX3 generally produces lower error, although its advantage is not as significant. This is also consistent with theoretical analysis [39, 40], which shows that IP is harder to model than parity. 5.2 Experiments on Real Data We also conducted an empirical investigation on some real data sets. Here we tried to replicate the results of [25] on similar data sets, USPS and COIL from [41], Letter from [42], MNIST, and CIFAR-100 from [43]. Similar to [23], we performed an optimistic model selection for each method on an initial sample of t training and t test examples; then with the parameters fixed the experiments were repeated 5 times on independently drawn sets of t training and t test examples from the remaining data. The results shown in Table 2(b) and Table 2(d) show that CVX3 is able to systematically reduce the test error of CVX2. This suggests that the advantage of deeper modeling does indeed arise from enhanced representation ability, and not merely from an enhanced ability to escape local minima or walk plateaus, since neither exist in these cases. 6 Conclusion We have presented a new formulation of multi-layer training that can accommodate an arbitrary number of nonlinear layers while maintaining a jointly convex training objective. Accurate learning of additional layers, when required, appears to demonstrate a marked advantage over shallower architectures, even when models can be trained to optimality. Aside from further improvements in algorithmic efficiency, an interesting direction for future investigation is to capture unsupervised ?stage-wise? training principles via auxiliary autoencoder objectives within a convex framework, rather than treating input reconstruction as a mere heuristic training device. 8 References [1] G. Dahl, D. Yu, L. Deng, and A. Acero. On the problem of local minima in backpropagation. IEEE Trans. ASLP, 20(1):30?42, 2012. [2] A. Krizhevsky, A. Sutskever, and G. Hinton. ImageNet classification with deep convolutional neural networks. In NIPS. 2012. [3] Q. Le, M. Ranzato, R. Monga, M. Devin, G. Corrado, K. Chen, J. Dean, and A. Ng. Building high-level features using large scale unsupervised learning. In Proceedings ICML. 2012. [4] R. Socher, C. Lin, A. Ng, and C. Manning. Parsing natural scenes and natural language with recursive neural networks. In ICML. 2011. [5] Y. Bengio. Learning deep architectures for AI. Found. 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Stacked denoising autoencoders: Learning useful representations in a deep network with a local denoising criterion. JMLR, 11(3):3371?3408, 2010. [14] G. Hinton, N. Srivastava, A. Krizhevsky, A. Sutskever, and R. Salakhutdinov. Improving neural networks by preventing co-adaptation of feature detectors, 2012. ArXiv:1207.0580. [15] K. Hoeffgen, H. Simon, and K. Van Horn. Robust trainability of single neurons. JCSS, 52:114?125, 1995. [16] S. Arora, A. Bhaskara, R. Ge, and T. Ma. Bounds for learning deep representations. In ICML. 2014. [17] R. Livni, S. Shalev-Shwartz, and O. Shamir. An algorithm for training polynomial networks, 2014. ArXiv:1304.7045v2. [18] R. Gens and P. Domingos. Discriminative learning of sum-product networks. In NIPS 25. 2012. [19] G. Kimeldorf and G. Wahba. Some results on Tchebycheffian spline functions. JMAA, 33:82?95, 1971. [20] B. Schoelkopf and A. Smola. Learning with Kernels. MIT Press, 2002. [21] Y. Cho and L. Saul. Large margin classification in infinite neural networks. Neural Comput., 22, 2010. [22] J. Zhuang, I. Tsang, and S. Hoi. Two-layer multiple kernel learning. In AISTATS. 2011. [23] A. Joulin and F. Bach. A convex relaxation for weakly supervised classifiers. In Proceedings ICML. 2012. [24] A. Joulin, F. Bach, and J. Ponce. Multi-class cosegmentation. In Proceedings CVPR. 2012. [25] O. Aslan, H. Cheng, D. Schuurmans, and X. Zhang. Convex two-layer modeling. In NIPS. 2013. [26] R. Neal. Connectionist learning of belief networks. Artificial Intelligence, 56(1):71?113, 1992. [27] V. Nair and G. E. Hinton. Rectified linear units improve restricted Boltzmann machines. In ICML. 2010. [28] R. Rifkin and R. Lippert. Value regularization and Fenchel duality. JMLR, 8:441?479, 2007. [29] A. Argyriou, T. Evgeniou, and M. Pontil. Convex multi-task feature learning. Mach. Learn., 73, 2008. [30] J. Peng and Y. Wei. Approximating k-means-type clustering via semidefinite programming. SIAM J. on Optimization, 18:186?205, 2007. [31] H. Cheng, X. Zhang, and D. Schuurmans. Convex relaxations of Bregman clustering. In UAI. 2013. [32] M. Jaggi. Revisiting Frank-Wolfe: Projection-free sparse convex optimization. In ICML. 2013. [33] S. Boyd, N. Parikh, E. Chu, B. Peleato, and J. Eckstein. Distributed optimization and statistical learning via the alternating direction method of multipliers. Found. Trends in Machine Learning, 3(1):1?123, 2010. [34] M. Overton and R. Womersley. Optimality conditions and duality theory for minimizing sums of the largest eigenvalues of symmetric matrices. Mathematical Programming, 62:321?357, 1993. [35] F. Dinuzzo, C. S. Ong, P. Gehler, and G. Pillonetto. Learning output kernels with block coordinate descent. In ICML. 2011. [36] L. Grippoa and M. Sciandrone. On the convergence of the block nonlinear Gauss-Seidel method under convex constraints. Operations Research Letters, 26:127?136, 2000. [37] V. Sindhwani and S. Keerthi. Large scale semi-supervised linear SVMs. In SIGIR. 2006. [38] T. Joachims. Transductive inference for text classification using support vector machines. In ICML. 1999. [39] A. Hajnal. Threshold circuits of bounded depth. J. of Computer & System Sciences, 46(2):129?154, 1993. [40] A. A. Razborov. On small depth threshold circuits. In Algorithm Theory (SWAT 92). 1992. [41] Http://olivier.chapelle.cc/ssl- book/benchmarks.html. [42] Http://archive.ics.uci.edu/ml/datasets. [43] Http://www.cs.toronto.edu/ kriz/cifar.html. 9
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A Block-Coordinate Descent Approach for Large-scale Sparse Inverse Covariance Estimation Eran Treister?? Computer Science, Technion, Israel and Earth and Ocean Sciences, UBC Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z2, Canada eran@cs.technion.ac.il Javier Turek? Department of Computer Science Technion, Israel Institute of Technology Technion City, Haifa 32000, Israel javiert@cs.technion.ac.il Abstract The sparse inverse covariance estimation problem arises in many statistical applications in machine learning and signal processing. In this problem, the inverse of a covariance matrix of a multivariate normal distribution is estimated, assuming that it is sparse. An `1 regularized log-determinant optimization problem is typically solved to approximate such matrices. Because of memory limitations, most existing algorithms are unable to handle large scale instances of this problem. In this paper we present a new block-coordinate descent approach for solving the problem for large-scale data sets. Our method treats the sought matrix block-by-block using quadratic approximations, and we show that this approach has advantages over existing methods in several aspects. Numerical experiments on both synthetic and real gene expression data demonstrate that our approach outperforms the existing state of the art methods, especially for large-scale problems. 1 Introduction The multivariate Gaussian (Normal) distribution is ubiquitous in statistical applications in machine learning, signal processing, computational biology, and others. Usually, normally distributed random vectors are denoted by x ? N (?, ?) ? Rn , where ?? Rn is the mean, and ?? Rn?n is the covariance matrix. Given a set of realizations {xi }m i=1 , many such applications require estimating the mean ?, and either the covariance ? or its inverse ??1 , which is also called the precision matrix. Estimating the inverse of the covariance matrix is useful in many applications [2] as it represents the underlying graph of a Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF). Given the samples {xi }m i=1 , both the mean vector ? and the covariance matrix ? are often approximated using the standard maximum Pm 1 1 likelihood estimator (MLE), which leads to ? ?= m i=0 xi and m 4 ? MLE = S=? 1 X (xi ? ? ?)(xi ? ? ?)T , m i=0 (1) which is also called the empirical covariance matrix. Specifically, according to the MLE, ??1 is estimated by solving the optimization problem 4 min f (A) = min ? log(det A) + tr(SA), A0 A0 ? (2) The authors contributed equally to this work. Eran Treister is grateful to the Azrieli Foundation for the award of an Azrieli Fellowship. 1 Equation (1) is the standard MLE estimator. However, sometimes the unbiased MLE estimation is preferred, where m ? 1 replaces m in the denominator. ? 1 which is obtained by applying ? log to the probability density function of the Normal distribution. However, if the number of samples is lower than the dimension of the vectors, i.e., m < n, then S in (1) is rank deficient and not invertible, whereas the true ? is assumed to be positive definite, hence full-rank. Still, when m < n one can estimate the matrix by adding further assumptions. It is well-known [5] that if (??1 )ij = 0 then the random scalar variables in the i-th and j-th entries in x are conditionally independent. Therefore, in this work we adopt the notion of estimating the inverse of the covariance, ??1 , assuming that it is sparse. (Note that in most cases ? is dense.) For this purpose, we follow [2, 3, 4], and minimize (2) with a sparsity-promoting `1 prior: 4 min F (A) = min f (A) + ?kAk1 . A0 A0 (3) P Here, f (A) is the MLE functional defined in (2), kAk1 ? i,j |aij |, and ? > 0 is a regularization parameter that balances between the sparsity of the solution and the fidelity to the data. The sparsity assumption corresponds to a small number of statistical dependencies between the variables. Problem (3) is also called Covariance Selection [5], and is non-smooth and convex. Many methods were recently developed for solving (3)?see [3, 4, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 15, 16] and references therein. The current state-of-the-art methods, [10, 11, 12, 16], involve a ?proximal Newton? approach [20], where a quadratic approximation is applied on the smooth part f (A) in (3), leaving the non-smooth `1 term intact, in order to obtain the Newton descent direction. To obtain this, the gradient and Hessian of f (A) are needed and are given by ?f (A) = S ? A?1 , ?2 f (A) = A?1 ? A?1 , (4) where ? is the Kronecker product. The gradient in (4) already shows the main difficulty in solving this problem: it contains A?1 , the inverse of the sparse matrix A, which may be dense and expensive to compute. The advantage of the proximal Newton approach for this problem is the low overhead: by calculating the A?1 in ?f (A), we also get the Hessian at the same cost [11, 12, 16]. In this work we aim at solving large scale instances of (3), where n is large, such that O(n2 ) variables cannot fit in memory. Such problem sizes are required in fMRI [11] and gene expression analysis [9] applications, for example. Large values of n introduce limitations: (a) They preclude storing the full matrix S in (1), and allow us to use only the vectors {xi }m i=1 , which are assumed to fit in memory. (b) While the sparse matrix A in (3) fits in memory, its dense inverse does not. Because of this limitation, most of the methods mentioned above cannot be used to solve (3), as they require computing the full gradient of f (A), which is a dense n ? n symmetric matrix. The same applies for the blocking strategies of [2, 7], which target the dense covariance matrix itself rather than its inverse, using the dual formulation of (3). One exception is the proximal Newton approach in [11], which was made suitable for large-scale matrices by treating the Newton direction problem in blocks. In this paper, we introduce an iterative Block-Coordinate Descent [20] method for solving largescale instances of (3). We treat the problem in blocks defined as subsets of columns of A. Each block sub-problem is solved by a quadratic approximation, resulting in a descent direction that corresponds only to the variables in the block. Since we consider one sub-problem at a time, we can fully store the gradient and Hessian for the block. In contrast, [11] applies a blocking approach to the full Newton problem, which results in a sparse n ? n descent direction. There, all the columns of A?1 are calculated for the gradient and Hessian of the problem for each inner iteration when solving the full Newton problem. Therefore, our method requires less calculations of A?1 than [11], which is the most computationally expensive task in both algorithms. Furthermore, our blocking strategy allows an efficient linesearch procedure, while [11] requires computing a determinant of a sparse n ? n matrix. Although our method is of linear order of convergence, it converges in less iterations than [11] in our experiments. Note that the asymptotic convergence of [11] is quadratic only if the exact Newton direction is found at each iteration, which is very costly for large-scale problems. 2 1.1 Newton?s Method for Covariance Selection The proximal Newton approach mentioned earlier is iterative, and at each iteration k, the smooth part of the objective in (3) is approximated by a second order Taylor expansion around the k-th iterate A(k) . Then, the Newton direction ?? is the solution of an `1 penalized quadratic minimization problem, 1 min F? (A(k) + ?) = min f (A(k) ) + tr(?(S ? W)) + tr(?W?W) + ?kA(k) + ?k1 , (5) ? ? 2  ?1 where W = A(k) is the inverse of the k-th iterate. Note that the gradient and Hessian of f (A) in (4) are featured in the second and third terms in (5), respectively, while the first term of (5) is constant and can be ignored. Problem (5) corresponds to the well-known LASSO problem [18], which is popular in machine learning and signal/image processing applications [6]. The methods of [12, 16, 11] apply known LASSO-solvers for treating the Newton direction minimization (5). Once the direction ?? is computed, it is added to A(k) employing a linesearch procedure to sufficiently reduce the objective in (3) while ensuring positive definiteness. To this end, the updated iterate is A(k+1) = A(k) + ?? ?? , and the parameter ?? is obtained using Armijo?s rule [1, 12]. That is, we choose an initial value of ?0 , and a step size 0 < ? < 1, and accordingly define ?i = ? i ?0 . We then look for the smallest i ? N that satisfies the constraint A(k) + ?i ??  0, and the condition h i F (A(k) + ?i ?? ) ? F (A(k) ) + ?i ? tr(?? (S ? W)) + ?kA(k) + ?? k1 ? ?kA(k) k1 . (6) The parameters ?0 , ?, and ? are usually chosen as 1,0.5, and 10?4 respectively. 1.2 Restricting the Updates to Active Sets An additional significant idea of [12] is to restrict the minimization of (5) at each iteration to an ?active set? of variables and keep the rest as zeros. The active set of a matrix A is defined as  Active(A) = (i, j) : Aij 6= 0 ? |(S ? A?1 )ij | > ? . (7) This set comes from the definition of the sub-gradient of (3). In particular, as A(k) approaches  ? (k) ? the solution A , Active(A ) approaches (i, j) : Aij 6= 0 . As noted in [12, 16], restricting  (5) to the variables in Active A(k) reduces the computational complexity: given the matrix W, 3 the Hessian (third) term  in (5) can be calculated in O(Kn) operations instead of O(n ), where (k) K = |Active A |. Hence, any method for solving the LASSO problem can be utilized to  solve (5) effectively while saving computations by restricting its solution to Active A(k) . Our  experiments have verified that restricting the minimization of (5) only to Active A(k) does not significantly increase the number of iterations needed for convergence. 2 Block-Coordinate-Descent for Inverse Covariance (BCD-IC) Estimation In this Section we describe our contribution. To solve problem (3), we apply an iterative BlockCoordinate-Descent approach [20]. At each iteration, we divide the column set {1, ..., n} into blocks. Then we iterate over all blocks, and in turn minimize (3) restricted to the ?active? variables of each block, which are determined according to (7). The other matrix entries remain fixed during each update. The matrix A is updated after each block-minimization. We choose our blocks as sets of columns because the portion of the gradient (4) that corresponds to such blocks can be computed as solutions of linear systems. Because the matrix is symmetric, the corresponding rows are updated simultaneously. Figure 1 shows an example of a BCD iteration where the blocks of columns are chosen in sequential order. In practice, the sets of columns can be non-contiguous and vary between the BCD iterations. We elaborate later on how to partition 3 Figure 1: Example of a BCD iteration. The blocks are treated successively. the columns, and on some advantages of this block-partitioning. Partitioning the matrix into small blocks enables our method to solve (3) in high dimensions (up to millions of variables), requiring O(n2 /p) additional memory, where p is the number of blocks (that is in addition to the memory needed for storing the iterated solution A(k) itself). 2.1 Block Coordinate Descent Iteration Assume that the set of columns {1, ..., n} is divided into p blocks {Ij }pj=1 , where Ij is the set of indices that corresponds to the columns and rows in the j-th block. As mentioned before, in the BCD-IC algorithm we traverse all blocks and update the iterated solution matrix block by block. (k) We denote the updated matrix after treating the j-th block at iteration k by Aj and the next iterate (k) A(k+1) is defined once the last block is treated, i.e., A(k+1) = Ap . To treat each block of (3), we adopt both of the ideas described earlier: we use a quadratic approximation to solve each block, while also restricting the updated entries to the active set. For simplicity (k) of notation in this section, let us denote the updated matrix Aj?1 , before treating block j at iteration ? To update block j, we change only the entries in the rows/columns in Ij . First, we form k, by A. and minimize a quadratic approximation of problem (3), restricted to the rows/columns in Ij : ? + ?j ), min F? (A ?j (8) ? similarly to (5), and ?j has non-zero where F? (?) is the quadratic approximation of (3) around A, ? entries only in the rows/columns in Ij . In addition, the non-zeros of ?j are restricted to Active(A) defined in (7). That is, we restrict the minimization (8) to ? = Active(A) ? ? {(i, k) : i ? Ij ? k ? Ij } , ActiveIj (A) (9) while all other elements are set to zero for the entire treatment of the j-th block. To calculate this set, we check the condition in (7) only in the columns and rows of Ij . To define this active set, and ? ?1 , which is the to calculate the gradient (4) for block Ij , we first calculate the columns Ij of A main computational task of our algorithm. To achieve that, we solve |Ij | linear systems, with the ? ?1 )I = A ? ?1 EI . The solution canonical vectors el as right-hand-sides for each l ? Ij , i.e., (A j j of these linear systems can be achieved in various ways. Direct methods may be applied using the Cholesky factorization, which requires up to O(n3 ) operations. For large dimensions, iterative methods such as Conjugate Gradients (CG) are usually preferred, because the cost of each iteration is proportional to the number of non-zeros in the sparse matrix. See Section A.4 in the Appendix for details about the computational cost of this part of the algorithm. 2.1.1 Treating a Block-subproblem by Newton?s Method To get the Newton direction for the j-th block, we solve the LASSO problem (8), for which there are many available solvers [22]. We choose the Polak-Ribiere non-linear Conjugate Gradients (NLCG) method of [19] which, together with a diagonal preconditioner, was used to solve this problem in [22, 19]. We describe the NLCG algorithm in Apendix A.1. To use this method, we need to calculate the objective of (8) and its gradient efficiently. The calculation of the objective in (8) is much simpler than the full version in (5), because only ? ?1 , to compute the objective in (8) and blocks of rows/columns are considered. Denoting W = A its gradient we need to calculate the matrices W?j W and S ? W only at the entries where ?j is 4 non-zero (in the rows/columns in Ij ). These matrices are symmetric, and hence, only their columns are necessary. This idea applies for the `1 term of the objective in (8) as well. In each iteration of the NLCG method, the main computational task involves calculating W?j W in ? ?1 calculated for obtaining (9), which we the columns of Ij . For that, we reuse the Ij columns of A denote by WIj . Since we only need the result in the columns Ij , we first notice that (W?j W)Ij = W?j WIj , and the product ?j WIj can be computed efficiently because ?j is sparse. Computing W(?j WIj ) is another relatively expensive part of our algorithm, and here we exploit the restriction to the Active Set. That is, we only need to compute the entries in (9). For this, we follow the idea of [11] and use the rows (or columns) of W that are represented in (9). Besides the columns Ij of W we also need the ?neighborhood? of Ij defined as  Nj = i : ?k ? / Ij : (i, k) ? ActiveIj (A) . (10) The size of this set will determine the amount of additional columns of W that we need, and therefore we want it to be as small as possible. To achieve that, we define the blocks {Ij } using clustering methods, following [11]. We use METIS [13], but other methods may be used instead. The aim of these methods is to partition the indices of the matrix columns/rows into disjoint subsets of relatively small size, such that there are as few as possible non-zero entries outside the diagonal blocks of the matrix that correspond to each subset. In our notation, we aim that the size of Nj will be as small as possible for every block Ij , and that the size of Ij will be small enough. Note that after we compute WNj , we need to actually store and use only |Nj | ? |Nj | numbers out of WNj . However, there might be situations where the matrix has a few dense columns, resulting in some sets Nj of size O(n). Computing WNj for those sets is not possible because of memory limitations. We treat this case separately?see Section A.2 in the Appendix for details. For a discussion about the computational cost of this part?see Section A.4 in the Appendix. 2.1.2 Optimizing the Solution in the Newton Direction with Line-search Assume that ??j is the Newton direction obtained by solving problem (8). Now we seek to update (k) (k) the iterated matrix Aj = Aj?1 + ?? ??j , where ?? > 0 is obtained by a linesearch procedure similarly to Equation (6). For a general Newton direction matrix ?? as in (6), this procedure requires calculating the determinant of an n?n matrix. In [11], this is done by solving n?1 linear systems of decreasing sizes from n ? 1 to 1. However, since our direction ??j has a special block structure, we obtain a significantly cheaper linesearch procedure compared to [11], assuming that the blocks Ij are relatively small. First, the trace and `1 terms that are involved in the objective of (3) can be calculated with respect only to the entries in the columns Ij (the rows are taken into account by symmetry). The log det term, however, needs more special care, and is eventually reduced to calculating the determinant of an |Ij | ? |Ij | matrix, which becomes cheaper as the block size decreases. Let us introduce a partitioning of any matrix A into blocks, according to a set of indices Ij ? {1, ..., n}. Assume without loss of generality that the rows and columns of A have been permuted such that the columns/rows with indices in Ij appear first, and let ? A11 A12 ? ? A=? ? A21 A22 ? ? ? (11) be a partitioning of A into four blocks. The sub-matrix A11 corresponds to the elements in rows ? According to the Schur complement [17], for any invertible matrix and Ij and in columns Ij in A. block-partitioning as above, the following holds: log det(A) = log det(A22 ) + log det(A11 ? A12 A?1 22 A21 ). 5 (12) In addition, for any symmetric matrix A the following applies: A  0 ? A22  0 and A11 ? A12 A?1 22 A21  0. (13) ? and the corresponding partitioning for ?? , we write using (12): Using the above notation for A j ? + ??j ) = log det (A ? 22 ) + log det(B0 + ?B1 + ?2 B2 ) log det (A (14) ? 11 ? A ? 12 A ? ?1 A ? 21 , B1 = ?11 ? ?12 A ? ?1 A ? 21 ? A ? 12 A ? ?1 ?21 , and where B0 = A 22 22 22 ?1 ? ? B2 = ??12 A22 ?21 . (Note that here we replaced ?j by ? to ease notation.) ? ? ? Finally, the positive definiteness condition A+? ?j  0 involved in the linesearch (6) is equivalent 2 ? 22  0, following (13). Throughout the iterations, we to B0 + ?B1 + ? B2  0, assuming that A ? remains positive definite by linesearch in every always guarantee that our iterated solution matrix A update. This requires that the initialization of the algorithm, A(0) , be positive definite. If the set Ij is relatively small, then the matrices Bi in (14) are also small (|Ij | ? |Ij |), and we can easily compute the objective F (?), and apply the Armijo rule (6) for ??j . Calculating the matrices Bi in (14) seems expensive, however, as we show in Appendix A.3, they can be obtained from the previously computed matrices WIj and WNj mentioned earlier. Therefore, computing (14) can be achieved in O(|Ij |3 ) time complexity. Algorithm: BCD-IC(A(0) ,{xi }m i=1 ,?) for k = 0, 1, 2, ... do Calculate clusters of elements {Ij }pj=1 based on A(k) . (k) % Denote: A0 = A(k) for j = 1, ..., p do   (k) Compute WIj = (Aj?1 )?1 . % solve |Ij | linear systems Ij   (k) Define ActiveIj Aj?1 as in (9), and define the set Nj in (10).   (k) Compute WNj = (Aj?1 )?1 . % solve |Nj | linear systems Nj Find the Newton direction ??j by solving the LASSO problem (8). (k) Update the solution: Aj end (k) = Aj?1 + ?? ??j by linesearch. (k) % Denote: A(k+1) = Ap end Algorithm 1: Block Coordinate Descent for Inverse Covariance Estimation 3 Convergence Analysis In this Section, we elaborate on the convergence of the BCD-IC algorithm to the global optimum of (3). We base our analysis on [20, 12]. In [20], a general block-coordinate-descent approach is analyzed to solve minimization problems of the form F (A) = f (A) + ?h(A) composed of the sum of a smooth function f (?) and a separable convex function h(?), which in our case are ? log det(A) + tr(SA) and kAk1 , respectively. Although this setup fits the functional F (A) in (3), [20] treats the problem in the Rn?n domain, while the minimization in (3) is being constrained over Sn ++ ?the symmetric positive definite matrices domain. To overcome this limitation, the authors in [12] extended the analysis in [20] to treat the specific constrained problem (3). In particular, [20, 12] consider block-coordinate-descent methods where in each step t a subset Jt of variables is updated. Then, a Gauss-Seidel condition is necessary to ensure that all variables are updated every T steps: [ Jl+t ? N ?t = 1, 2, . . . , (15) l=0,...,T ?1 6 where N is the set of all variables, and T is a fixed number. Similarly to [12], treating each block of columns Ij in the BCD-IC algorithm is equivalent to updating the elements outside the active set ActiveIj (A), followed by an update of the elements in ActiveIj (A). Therefore, in (15), we set ? J2t = {(i, l) : i ? Ij ? l ? Ij } \ ActiveIj (A), ? J2t+1 = ActiveIj (A), where the step index t corresponds to the block j at the iteration k of BCD-IC. In [12, Lemma 1], it is shown that setting the elements outside the active set for block j to zero satisfies the optimality condition of that step. Therefore, in our algorithm we only need to update the elements in ActiveIj (A). Now, if we were using p fixed blocks containing all the coordinates of A in Algorithm (1) (no clustering is applied), then the Gauss-Seidel condition (15) would be satisfied every T = 2p blocks. When clustering is applied, the block-partitioning {Ij } can change at every activation of the clustering method. Therefore, condition (15) is satisfied at most after T = 4? p, where p? is the maximum number of blocks obtained from all the activations of the clustering algorithm. For completeness, we include in Appendix A.5 the lemmas in [12] and the proof of the following theorem: n o (k) Theorem 1. In Algorithm 1, the sequence Aj converges to the global optimum of (3). 4 Numerical Results In this section we demonstrate the efficiency of the BCD-IC method, and compare it with other methods for both small and large scales. For small-scale problems we include QUIC [12], BIGQUIC [11] and G-ISTA [8], which are the state-of-the-art methods at this scale. For large-scale problems, we compare our method only with BIG-QUIC as it is the only feasible method known to us at this scale. For all methods, we use the original code which was provided by the authors? all implemented in C and parallelized (except QUIC which is partially parallelized). Our code for BCD-IC is MATLAB based with several routines in C. All the experiments were run on a machine with 2 Intel Xeon E-2650 2.0GHz processors with 16 cores and 64GB RAM, using Windows 7 OS. As a stopping criterion for BCD-IC, we use the rule as in [11]: kgradS F (A(k) )k1 < kA(k) k1 , where gradS F (?) is the minimal norm subgradient, defined in Equation (25) in Appendix A.5. For  = 10?2 as we choose, this results in the entries in A(k) being about two digits accurate compared ? to the true solution ??1 . As in [11], we approximate WIj and WNj by using CG, which we stop once the residual drops below 10?5 and 10?4 , respectively. For stopping NLCG (Algorithm 2) we use nlcg = 10?4 (see details at the end of Section A.1). We note that for the large-scale test problems, BCD-IC with optimal block size requires less memory than BIG-QUIC. 4.1 Synthetic Experiments We use two synthetic experiments to compare the performance of the methods. First, the random matrix from [14], which is generated to have about 10 non-zeros per row, and to be well-conditioned. We generate matrices of sizes n varying from 5,000 to 160,000, and generate 200 samples for each ? (m = 200). The values of ? are chosen so that the solution ??1 has approximately 10n non-zeros. BCD-IC is run with block sizes of 64, 96, 128, 256, and 256 for each of the random tests in Table 1, respectively. The second problem is a i2D version of the chain example in [14], which can be h ?1 represented as the 2D stencil 14 ?1 5 ?1 , applied on a square lattice. ? is chosen such that ??1 ?1 has about 5n non-zeros. For these tests, BCD-IC is run with block size of 1024. ? Table 1 summarizes the results for this test case. The results show that for small-scale problems, G-ISTA is the fastest method and BCD-IC is just behind it. However, from size 20,000 and higher, BCD-IC is the fastest. We could not run QUIC and G-ISTA on problems larger than 20,000 because of memory limitations. The time gap between G-ISTA and both BCD-IC and BIG-QUIC in smallscales can be reduced if their programs receive the matrix S as input instead of the {xi }m i=1 . 4.2 Gene Expression Analysis Experiments For the large-scale real-world experiments, we use gene expression datasets that are available at the Gene Expression Omnibus (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/geo/). We use several of the 7 ? test, n k??1 k0 ? k??1 k0 BCD-IC BIG-QUIC QUIC G-ISTA random 5K random 10K random 20K random 40K random 80K random 160K 2D 5002 2D 7082 2D 10002 59,138 118,794 237,898 475,406 950,950 1,901,404 1,248,000 2,503,488 4,996,000 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.30 0.31 0.32 63,164 139,708 311,932 423,696 891,268 1,852,198 1,553,698 3,002,338 5,684,306 15.3s(3) 61.8s(3) 265s(3) 729s(4) 4,102s(4) 21,296s(4) 24,235s(4) 130,636s(4) 777,947s(4) 19.6s(5) 73.8s(5) 673s(5) 2,671s(5) 16,764s(5) 25,584s(4) 40,530s(4) 203,370s(4) 1,220,213s(4) 28.7s(5) 114s(5) 823s(5) * * * * * * 13.6s(7) 60.2s(7) 491s(8) * * * * * * ? Table 1: Results for the random and 2D synthetic experiments. k??1 k0 and k??1 k0 denote the number of non-zeros in the true and estimated inverse covariance matrices, respectively. For each run, timings are reported in seconds and number of iterations in parentheses. ?*? means that the algorithm ran out of memory. tests reported in [9]. The data is preprocessed to have zero mean and unit variance for each variable (i.e., diag(S) = I). Table 2 shows the datasets as well as the numbers of variables (n) and samples (m) on each. In particular, these datasets have many variables and very few samples (m  n). Because of the size of the problems, we ran only BCD-IC and BIG-QUIC for these test cases. For the first three tests in Table 2, ? was chosen so that the solution matrix has about 10n non-zeros. For the fourth test, we choose a relatively high ? = 0.9 since the low number of samples causes the solutions with smaller ??s to be quite dense. BCD-IC is run with block size of 256 for all the tests in Table 2. We found these datasets to be more challenging than the synthetic experiments above. Still, both algorithms BCD-IC and BIG-QUIC manage to estimate the inverse covariance matrix in reasonable time. As in the synthetic case, BCD-IC outperforms BIG-QUIC in all test cases. BCD-IC requires a smaller number of iterations to converge, which translates into shorter timings. Moreover, the average time of each BCD-IC iteration is faster than that of BIG-QUIC. code name Description GSE1898 GSE20194 GSE17951 GSE14322 Liver cancer Breast cancer Prostate cancer Liver cancer ? n m ? k??1 k0 BCD-IC BIG-QUIC 21, 794 22, 283 54, 675 104, 702 182 278 154 76 0.7 0.7 0.78 0.9 293,845 197,953 558,929 4,973,476 788.3s (7) 452.9s (8) 1,621.9s (6) 55,314.8s (9) 5,079.5s (12) 2,810.6s (10) 8,229.7s (9) 127,199s (14) ? Table 2: Gene expression results. k??1 k0 denotes the number of non-zeros in the estimated covariance matrix. For each run, timings are reported in seconds and number of iterations in parentheses. 5 Conclusions In this work we introduced a Block-Coordinate Descent method for solving the sparse inverse covariance problem. Our method has a relatively low memory footprint, and therefore it is especially attractive for solving large-scale instances of the problem. It solves the problem by iterating and updating the matrix block by block, where each block is chosen as a subset of columns and respective rows. For each block sub-problem, a proximal Newton method is applied, requiring a solution of a LASSO problem to find the descent direction. Because the update is limited to a subset of columns and rows, we are able to store the gradient and Hessian for each block, and enjoy an efficient linesearch procedure. Numerical results show that for medium-to-large scale experiments our algorithm is faster than the state-of-the-art methods, especially when the problem is relatively hard. Acknowledgement: The authors would like to thank Prof. Irad Yavneh for his valuable comments and guidance throughout this work. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union?s - Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no 623212 MC Multiscale Inversion. 8 References [1] L. Armijo. 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New Rules for Domain Independent Lifted MAP Inference Happy Mittal, Prasoon Goyal Dept. of Comp. Sci. & Engg. I.I.T. Delhi, Hauz Khas New Delhi, 110016, India Vibhav Gogate Dept. of Comp. Sci. Univ. of Texas Dallas Richardson, TX 75080, USA Parag Singla Dept. of Comp. Sci. & Engg. I.I.T. Delhi, Hauz Khas New Delhi, 110016, India happy.mittal@cse.iitd.ac.in vgogate@hlt.utdallas.edu parags@cse.iitd.ac.in prasoongoyal13@gmail.com Abstract Lifted inference algorithms for probabilistic first-order logic frameworks such as Markov logic networks (MLNs) have received significant attention in recent years. These algorithms use so called lifting rules to identify symmetries in the first-order representation and reduce the inference problem over a large probabilistic model to an inference problem over a much smaller model. In this paper, we present two new lifting rules, which enable fast MAP inference in a large class of MLNs. Our first rule uses the concept of single occurrence equivalence class of logical variables, which we define in the paper. The rule states that the MAP assignment over an MLN can be recovered from a much smaller MLN, in which each logical variable in each single occurrence equivalence class is replaced by a constant (i.e., an object in the domain of the variable). Our second rule states that we can safely remove a subset of formulas from the MLN if all equivalence classes of variables in the remaining MLN are single occurrence and all formulas in the subset are tautology (i.e., evaluate to true) at extremes (i.e., assignments with identical truth value for groundings of a predicate). We prove that our two new rules are sound and demonstrate via a detailed experimental evaluation that our approach is superior in terms of scalability and MAP solution quality to the state of the art approaches. 1 Introduction Markov logic [4] uses weighted first order formulas to compactly encode uncertainty in large, relational domains such as those occurring in natural language understanding and computer vision. At a high level, a Markov logic network (MLN) can be seen as a template for generating ground Markov networks. Therefore, a natural way to answer inference queries over MLNs is to construct a ground Markov network and then use standard inference techniques (e.g., Loopy Belief Propagation) for Markov networks. Unfortunately, this approach is not practical because the ground Markov networks can be quite large, having millions of random variables and features. Lifted inference approaches [17] avoid grounding the whole Markov logic theory by exploiting symmetries in the first-order representation. Existing lifted inference algorithms can be roughly divided into two types: algorithms that lift exact solvers [2, 3, 6, 17], and algorithms that lift approximate inference techniques such as belief propagation [12, 20] and sampling based methods [7, 21]. Another line of work [1, 5, 9, 15] attempts to characterize the complexity of lifted inference independent of the specific solver being used. Despite the presence of large literature on lifting, there has been limited focus on exploiting the specific structure of the MAP problem. Some recent work [14, 16] has looked at exploiting symmetries in the context of LP formulations for MAP inference. Sarkhel et. al [19] show that the MAP problem can be propositionalized in the limited setting of non-shared MLNs. But largely, the question is still open as to whether there can be a greater exploitation of the structure for lifting MAP inference. 1 In this paper, we propose two new rules for lifted inference specifically tailored for MAP queries. We identify equivalence classes of variables which are single occurrence i.e., they have at most a single variable from the class appearing in any given formula. Our first rule for lifting states that MAP inference over the original theory can be equivalently formulated over a reduced theory where every single occurrence class has been reduced to a unary sized domain. This leads to a general framework for transforming the original theory into a (MAP) equivalent reduced theory. Any existing (propositional or lifted) MAP solver can be applied over this reduced theory. When every equivalence class is single occurrence, our approach is domain independent, i.e., the complexity of MAP inference does not depend on the number of constants in the domain. Existing lifting constructs such as the decomposer [6] and the non-shared MLNs [19] are special cases of our single occurrence rule. When the MLN theory is single occurrence, one of the MAP solutions lies at extreme, namely all groundings of any given predicate have identical values (true/false) in the MAP assignment. Our second rule for lifting states that formulas which become tautology (i.e., evaluate to true) at extreme assignments can be ignored for the purpose of MAP inference when the remaining theory is single occurrence. Many difficult to lift formulas such as symmetry and transitivity are easy to handle in our framework because of this rule. Experiments on three benchmark MLNs clearly demonstrate that our approach is more accurate and scalable than the state of the art approaches for MAP inference. 2 Background A first order logic [18] theory is constructed using the constant, variable, function and predicate symbols. Predicates are defined over terms as arguments where each term is either a constant, or a variable or a function applied to a term. A formula is constructed by combining predicates using operators such as ?, ? and ?. Variables in a first-order theory are often referred to as Logical Variables. Variables in a formula can be universally or existentially quantified. A Knowledge Base (KB) is a set of formulas. A theory is in Conjunctive Normal Form (CNF) if it is expressed as a conjunction of disjunctive formulas. The process of (partial) grounding corresponds to replacing (some) all of the free variables in a predicate or a formula with constants in the theory. In this paper, we assume function-free first order logic theory with Herbrand interpretations [18], and that variables in the theory are implicitly universally quantified. Markov Logic [4] is defined as a set of pairs (fi , wi ), where fi is a formula in first-order logic and wi is its weight. The weight wi signifies the strength of the constraint represented by the formula fi . Given a set of constants, an MLN can be seen as a template for constructing ground Markov networks. There is a node in the network for every ground atom and a feature for every ground formula. The probability distribution specified by an MLN is: ? ? X 1 P (X = x) = exp ? wi ni (x)? (1) Z i:fi ?F where X = x specifies an assignment to the ground atoms, the sum in the exponent is taken over the indices of the first order formulas (denoted by F ) in the theory, wi is the weight of the ith formula, ni (x) denotes the number of true groundings of the ith formula under the assignment x, and Z is the normalization constant. A formula f in MLN with weight w can be equivalently replaced by negation of the formula i.e., ?f with weight ?w. Hence, without loss of generality, we will assume that all the formulas in our MLN theory have non-negative weights. Also for convenience, we will assume that each formula is either a conjunction or a disjunction of literals. The MAP inference task is defined as the task of finding an assignment (there could be multiple such assignments) having the maximum probability. Since Z is a constant and exp is a monotonically increasing function, the MAP problem for MLNs can be written as: X arg max P (X = x) = arg max wi ni (x) (2) x x i:fi ?F One of the ways to find the MAP solution in MLNs is to ground the whole theory and then reformulate the problem as a MaxSAT problem [4]. Given a set of weighted clauses (constraints), the goal in MaxSAT is to find an assignment which maximizes the sum of the weights of the satisfied clauses. Any standard solver such as MaxWalkSAT [10] can be used over the ground theory to find the MAP solution. This can be wasteful when there is rich structure present in the network and lifted inference techniques can exploit this structure [11]. In this paper, we assume an MLN theory for the ease of 2 exposition. But our ideas are easily generalizable to other similar representations such as weighted parfactors [2], probabilistic knowledge bases [6] and WFOMC [5]. 3 Basic Framework 3.1 Motivation Most existing work on lifted MAP inference adapts the techniques for lifting marginal inference. One of the key ideas used in lifting is to exploit the presence of a decomposer [2, 6, 9]. A decomposer splits the theory into identical but independent sub-theories and therefore only one of them needs to be solved. A counting argument can be used when a decomposer is not present [2, 6, 9]. For theories containing upto two logical variables in each clause, there exists a polynomial time lifted inference procedure [5]. Specifically exploiting the structure of MAP inference, Sarkhel et. al [19] show that MAP inference in non-shared MLNs (with no self joins) can be reduced to a propositional problem. Despite all these lifting techniques, there is a larger class of MLN formulas where it is still not clear whether there exists an efficient lifting algorithm for MAP inference. For instance, consider the single rule MLN theory: w1 P arent(X, Y ) ? F riend(Y, Z) ? Knows(X, Z) This rule is hard to lift for any of the existing algorithms since neither the decomposer nor the counting argument is directly applicable. The counting argument can be applied after (partially) grounding X and as a result lifted inference on this theory will be more efficient than ground inference. However, consider adding transitivity to the above theory: w2 F riend(X, Y ) ? F riend(Y, Z) ? F riend(X, Z) This makes the problem even harder because in order to process the new MLN formula via lifted inference, one has to at least ground both the arguments of F riend. In this work, we exploit specific properties of MAP inference and develop two new lifting rules, which are able to lift the above theory. In fact, as we will show, MAP inference for MLN containing (exactly) the two formulas given above is domain independent, namely, it does not depend on the domain size of the variables. 3.2 Notation and Preliminaries We will use the upper case letters X, Y, Z etc. to denote the variables. We will use the lower case letters a, b, c etc. to denote the constants. Let ?X denote the domain of a variable X. We will assume that the variables in the MLN are standardized apart, namely, no two formulas contain the same variable symbol. Further, we will assume that the input MLN is in normal form [9]. An MLN is said to be in normal form if a) If X and Y are two variables appearing at the same argument position in a predicate P in the MLN theory, then ?X = ?Y . b) There are no constants in any formula. Any given MLN can be converted into the normal form by a series of mechanical operations in time that is polynomial in the size of the MLN theory and the evidence. We will require normal forms for simplicity of exposition. For lack of space, proofs of all the theorems and lemmas marked by (*) are presented in the extended version of the paper (see the supplementary material). Following Jha et. al [9] and Broeck [5], we define a symmetric and transitive relation over the variables in the theory as follows. X and Y are related if either a) they appear in the same position of a predicate P , or b) ? a variable Z such that X, Z and Y, Z are related. We refer to the relation above as binding relation [5]. Being symmetric and transitive, binding relation splits the variables into a set of equivalence classes. We say that X and Y bind to each other if they belong to the same equivalence class under the binding relation. We denote this by writing X ? Y . We will ? to refer to the equivalence class to which variable X belongs. As an example, use the notation X the MLN theory consisting of two rules: 1) P (X) ? Q(X, Y ) 2) P (Z) ? Q(U, V ) has two variable equivalence classes given by {X, Z, U } and {Y, V }. Broeck [5] introduce the notion of domain lifted inference. An inference procedure is domain lifted if it is polynomial in the size of the variable domains. Note that the notion of domain lifted does not impose any condition on how the complexity depends on the size of the MLN theory. On the similar lines, we introduce the notion of domain independent inference. Definition 3.1. An inference procedure is domain independent if its time complexity is independent of the domain size of the variables. As in the case of domain lifted inference, the complexity can still depend arbitrarily on the size of the MLN theory. 3 4 Exploiting Single Occurrence We show that the domains of equivalence classes satisfying certain desired properties can be reduced to unary sized domains for the MAP inference task. This forms the basis of our first inference rule. ? is said to be single Definition 4.1. Given an MLN theory M , a variable equivalence class X ? X and Y do not appear occurrence with respect to M if for any two variables X, Y ? X, together in any formula in the MLN. In other words, every formula in the MLN has at most a single ? A predicate is said to be single occurrence if each of the equivalence occurrence of variables from X. classes of its argument variables is single occurrence. An MLN is said to be single occurrence if each of its variable equivalence classes is single occurrence. Consider the MLN theory with two formulas as earlier: 1) P (X) ? Q(X, Y ) 2) P (Z) ? Q(U, V ). Here, {Y, V } is a single occurrence equivalence class while {X, Z, U } is not. Next, we show that the MAP tuple of an MLN can be recovered from a much smaller MLN in which the domain size of each variable in each single occurrence equivalence class is reduced to one. 4.1 First Rule for Lifting MAP ? Theorem 4.1. Let M be an MLN theory represented by the set of pairs {(fi , wi )}m i=1 . Let X be a single occurrence equivalence class with domain ?X? . Then, MAP inference problem in M can r be reduced to the MAP inference problem over a simpler MLN MX ? represented by a set of pairs 0 m ? has been reduced to a single constant. {(fi , wi )}i=1 where the domain of X r r Proof. We will prove the above theorem by constructing the desired theory MX ? . Note that MX ? has the same set of formulas as M with a set of modified weights. Let FX? be the set of formulas in M ? Let F?X? be the set of formulas in M which which contain a variable from the equivalence class X. ? Let {a1 , a2 , . . . , ar } be the domain of X. ? do not contain a variable from the equivalence class X. We will split the theory M into r equivalent theories {M1 , M2 , . . . , Mr } such that for each Mj : 1 1. For every formula fi ? FX? with weight wi , Mj contains fi with weight wi . 2. For every formula fi ? F?X? with weight wi , Mj contains fi with weight wi /r. ? in Mj is reduced to a single constant {aj }. 3. Domain of X 4. All other equivalence classes have domains identical to that in M . This divides the set of weighted constraints in M across the r sub-theories. Formally: Lemma 4.1. * The set of weighted constraints in M is a union of the set of weighted constraints in the sub-theories {Mj }rj=1 . Corollary 4.1. Let x be an assignment to the ground atoms in M . Let the function WM (x) denote the weight of satisfied ground formulas in M under the assignment x in theory M . Further, Pr let xj denote the assignment x restricted to the ground atoms in theory Mj . Then: WM (x) = j=1 WMj (xj ). It is easy to see that Mj ?s are identical to each other upto the renaming of the constants aj ?s. Hence, exploiting symmetry, there is a one to one correspondence between the assignments across the sub-theories. In particular, there is one to one correspondence between MAP assignments across the sub-theories {Mj }rj=1 . Lemma 4.2. If xMAP is a MAP assignment to the theory Mj , then there exists a MAP assignment j MAP xl to Ml such that xMAP is identical to xMAP with the difference that occurrence of constant l j aj (in ground atoms of Mj ) is replaced by constant al (in ground atoms of Ml ). Proof of this lemma follows from the construction of the sub-theories M1 , M2 , . . . Mr . Next, we will show that MAP solution for the theory M can be read off from the MAP solution for any of r theories {Mj }j=1 . Without loss of generality, let us consider the theory M1 . Let xMAP be some 1 MAP MAP assignment for M1 . Using lemma 4.2 there are MAP assignments xMAP , x , . . . , xMAP r 2 3 MAP for M2 , M3 , . . . Mr which are identical to x1 upto renaming of the constant a1 . We construct an assignment xMAP for the original theory M as follows. 1 Supplement presents an example of splitting an MLN theory based on the following procedure. 4 1. For each predicate P which does not contain any occurrence of the variables from the equivalence ? read off the assignment to its groundings in xMAP from xMAP . Note that assignments of class X, 1 AP groundings of P are identical in each of xM because of Lemma 4.2. j ? are split 2. The (partial) groundings of each predicate P whose arguments contain a variable X ? X across the sub-theories {Mj }1?j?r corresponding to the substitutions {X = aj }1?j?r , respectively. We assign the groundings of P in xMAP the values from the assignments xMAP , xMAP , . . . xMAP r 1 2 for the respective partial groundings. Because of Lemma 4.2, these partial groundings have identical values across the sub-theories upto renaming of the constant aj and hence, can be read off from either of the sub-theory assignments, and more specifically, xMAP . 1 By construction, assignment xMAP restricted to the ground atoms in sub-theory Mj corresponds to the assignment xMAP for each j, 1 ? j ? r. j The only thing remaining to show is that xMAP is indeed a MAP assignment for M . Suppose it alt is not, then there is another assignment WMP(xalt ) > WM (xMAP ). Using Corollary Pr x such that r alt MAP alt 4.1, WM (x ) > WM (x ) ? j=1 WMj (xj ) > j=1 WMj (xMAP ). This means that ?j, j MAP MAP such that WMj (xalt ) > W (x ). But this would imply that x is not a MAP assignment Mj j j j MAP for Mj which is a contradiction. Hence, x is indeed a MAP assignment for M . Definition 4.2. Application of Theorem 4.1 to transform the MAP problem over an MLN theory M r into the MAP over a reduced theory MX ? is referred to as Single Occurrence Rule for lifted MAP. Decomposer [6] is a very powerful construct for lifted inference. The next theorem states that a decomposer is a single occurrence equivalence class (and therefore, the single occurrence rule includes the decomposer rule as a special case). ? be an equivalence class of variables. If X ? is a Theorem 4.2. * Let M be an MLN theory and let X ? is single occurrence in M . decomposer for M , then X 4.2 Domain Independent Lifted MAP A simple procedure for lifted MAP inference which utilizes the property of MLN reduction for single occurrence equivalence classes is given in Algorithm 1. Here, the MLN theory is successively reduced with respect to each of the single occurrence equivalence classes. Algorithm 1 Reducing all the single occurrence equivalence classes in an MLN reduce(MLN M ) Mr ? M ? do for all Equivalence-Class X ? then if (isSingleOccurrence(X)) ? M r ? reduceEQ(M r ,X) end if end for return M r ? reduceEQ(MLN M, class X) ? r X MX ? {}; size ? |? |; ? ? ? {a1 } ? X ?X for all Formulas fi ? FX? do r Add (fi , wi ) to MX ? end for for all Formulas fi ? F?X? do r Add (fi , wi /size) to MX ? r end for; return MX ? Theorem 4.3. * MAP inference in a single occurrence MLN is domain independent. If an MLN theory contains a combination of both single occurrence and non-single occurrence equivalence classes, we can first reduce all the single occurrence classes to unary domains using Algorithm 1. Any existing (lifted or propositional) solver can be applied on this reduced theory to obtain the MAP solution. Revisiting the single rule example from Section 3.1: P arent(X, Y ) ? F riend(Y, Z) ? Knows(X, Z), we have 3 equivalence classes {X}, {Y }, and {Z}, all of which are single occurrence. Hence, MAP inference for this MLN theory is domain independent. 5 Exploiting Extremes Even when a theory does not contain single occurrence variables, we can reduce it effectively if a) there is a subset of formulas all of whose groundings are satisfied at extremes i.e. the assignments with identical truth value for all the groundings of a predicate, and b) the remaining theory with these formulas removed is single occurrence. This is the key idea behind our second rule for lifted MAP. We will first formalize the notion of an extreme assignment followed by the description of our second lifting rule. 5 5.1 Extreme Assignments Definition 5.1. Let M be an MLN theory. Given an assignment x to the ground atoms in M , we say that predicate P is at extreme in x if all the groundings of P take the same value (either true or false) in x. We say that x is at extreme if all the predicates in M are at extreme in x. Theorem 5.1. * Given an MLN theory M , let PS be the set of predicates which are single occurrence in M . Then there is a MAP assignment xMAP such that ?P ? PS , P is at extreme in xMAP . Corollary 5.1. A single occurrence MLN admits a MAP solution which is at extreme. Sarkhel et. al [19] show that non-shared MLNs (with no self-joins) have a MAP solution at the extreme. This turns out to be a special case of single occurrence MLNs. Theorem 5.2. * If an MLN theory is non-shared and has no-self joins, then M is single occurrence. 5.2 Second Rule for Lifting MAP Consider the MLN theory with a single formula as in Section 3.1: w1 P arent(X, Y ) ? F riend(Y, Z) ? Knows(X, Z). This is a single occurrence MLN and hence by Corollary 5.1, MAP solution lies at extreme. Consider adding the transitivity constraint to the theory: w2 F riend(X, Y ) ? F riend(Y, Z) ? F riend(X, Z). All the groundings of the second formula are satisfied at any extreme assignment of the F riends predicate groundings. Since, the MAP solution to the original theory with single formula is at extreme, it satisfies all the groundings of the second formula. Hence, it is a MAP for the new theory as well. We introduce the notion of tautology at extremes: Definition 5.2. An MLN formula f is said to be a tautology at extremes if all of its groundings are satisfied at any of the extreme assignments of its predicates. If an MLN theory becomes single occurrence after removing all the tautologies at extremes in it, then MAP inference in such a theory is domain independent. Theorem 5.3. * Let M be an MLN theory with the set of formulas denoted by F . Let Fte denote a set of formulas in M which are tautologies at extremes. Let M 0 be a new theory with formulas F ? Fte and formula weights as in M . Let the variable domains in M 0 be same as in M . If M 0 is single occurrence then the MAP inference for the original theory M can be reduced to the MAP inference problem over the new theory M 0 . Corollary 5.2. Let M be an MLN theory. Let M 0 be a single occurrence theory (with variable domains identical to M ) obtained after removing a subset of formulas in M which are tautologies at extremes. Then, MAP inference in M is domain independent. Definition 5.3. Application of Theorem 5.3 to transform the MAP problem over an MLN theory M into the MAP problem over the remaining theory M 0 after removing (a subset of) tautologies at extremes is referred to as Tautology at Extremes Rule for lifted MAP. Clearly, Corollary 5.2 applies to the two rule MLN theory considered above (and in the Section 3.1) and hence, MAP inference for the theory is domain independent. A necessary and sufficient condition for a clausal formula to be a tautology at extremes is to have both positive and negative occurrences of the same predicate symbol. Many difficult to lift but important formulas such as symmetry and transitivity are tautologies at extremes and hence, can be handled by our approach. 5.3 A Procedure for Identifying Tautologies In general, we only need the equivalence classes of variables appearing in Fte to be single occurrence in the remaining theory for Theorem 5.3 to hold. 2 Algorithm 2 describes a procedure to identify the largest set of tautologies at extremes such that all the variables in them are single occurrence with respect to the remainder of the theory. The algorithm first identifies all the tautologies at extremes. It then successively removes those from the set all of whose variables are not single occurrence in the remainder of the theory. The process stops when all the tautologies have only single occurrence variables appearing in them. We can then apply the procedure in Section 4 to find the MAP solution for the remainder of the theory. This is also the MAP for the whole theory by Theorem 5.3. 2 Theorem 5.3g in the supplement gives a more general version of Theorem 5.3. 6 Algorithm 2 Finding Tautologies at Extremes with Single Occurrence Variables getSingleOccurTautology(MLN M ) Fte ? getAllTautologyAtExtremes(M ); F 0 = F ? Fte ; fixpoint=False; while (fixpoint==False) do EQVars ? getSingleOccurVars(F 0 ) fixpoint=True for all formulas f ? Fte do if (!(Vars(f) ? EQVars)) then F 0 ? F 0 ? {f }; fixpoint = False end if end for end while; return F ? F 0 6 getAllTautologyAtExtremes(MLN M ) //Iterate over all the formulas in M and return the //subset of formulas which are tautologies at extremes //Pseudocode omitted due to lack of space isTautologyAtExtreme(Formula f ) f 0 = Clone(f ) PU ? set of unique predicates in f 0 for all P ? PU do ReplaceByNewPropositionalPred(P ,f 0 ) end for // f 0 is a propositional formula at this point return isTautology(f 0 ) Experiments We compared the performance of our algorithm against Sarkhel et. al [19]?s non shared MLN approach and the purely grounded version on three benchmark MLNs. For both the lifted approaches, we used them as pre-processing algorithms to reduce the MLN domains. We applied the ILP based solver Gurobi [8] as the base solver on the reduced theory to find the MAP assignment. In principle, any MAP solver could be used as the base solver 3 . For the ground version, we directly applied Gurobi on the grounded theory. We will refer to the grounded version as GRB. We will refer to our and Sarkhel et. al [19]?s approaches as SOLGRB (Single Occurrence Lifted GRB) and NSLGRB (Non-shared Lifted GRB), respectively. 6.1 Datasets and Methodology We used the following benchmark MLNs for our experiments. (Results on the Student network [19] are presented in the supplement.): 1) Information Extraction (IE): This theory is available from the Alchemy [13] website. We preprocessed the theory using the pure literal elimination rule described by Sarkhel et. al [19]. Resulting MLN had 7 formulas, 5 predicates and 4 variable equivalence classes. 2) Friends & Smokers (FS): This is a standard MLN used earlier in the literature [20]. The MLN has 2 formulas, 3 predicates and 1 variable equivalence class. We also introduced singletons for each predicate. For each algorithm, we report: 1) Time: Time to reach the optimal as the domain size is varied from 25 to 1000. 4,5 2) Cost: Cost of the unsatisfied clauses as the running time is varied for a fixed domain size (500). 3) Theory Size: Ground theory size as the domain size is varied. All the experiments were run on an Intel four core i3 processor with 4 GB of RAM. 6.2 Results Figures 1a-1c plot the results for the IE domain. Figure 1a shows the time taken to reach the optimal. 6 This theory has a mix of single occurrence and non-single occurrence variables. Hence, every algorithm needs to ground some or all of the variables. SOLGRB only grounds the variables whose domain size was kept constant. Hence, varying domain size has no effect on SOLGRB and it reaches optimal instantaneously for all the domain sizes. NSLGRB partially grounds this theory and its time to optimal gradually increases with increasing domain size. GRB performs significantly worse due to grounding of the whole theory. Figure 1b (log scale) plots the total cost of unsatisfied formulae with varying time at domain size of 500. SOLGRB reaches optimal right in the beginning because of a very small ground theory. NSLGRB takes about 15 seconds. GRB runs out of memory. Figure 1c (log scale) shows the size of the ground theory with varying domain size. As expected, SOLGRB stays constant whereas the 3 Using MaxWalkSAT [10] as the base solver resulted in sub-optimal results. For IE, two of the variable domains of were varied and other two were kept constant at 10 as done in [19]. 5 Reported results are averaged over 5 runs. 6 NSLGRB and GRB ran out of memory at domain sizes 800 and 100, respectively. 4 7 ground theory size increases polynomially for both NSLGRB and GRB with differing degrees (due to the different number of variables grounded). Figure 2 shows the results for FS. This theory is not single occurrence but the tautology at extremes rule applies and our theory does not need to ground any variable. NSLGRB is identical to the grounded version in this case. Results are qualitatively similar to IE domain. Time taken to reach the optimal is much higher in FS for NSLGRB and GRB for larger domain sizes. These results clearly demonstrate the scalability as well as the superior performance of our approach compared to the existing algorithms. 1e+08 Cost of unsat. formulas GRB NSLGRB SOLGRB Time in seconds 200 150 100 50 0 1e+10 NSLGRB SOLGRB Ground theory size 250 1e+07 1e+06 100000 10000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 10 20 Domain size 30 40 50 60 70 80 1e+06 10000 100 1 90 100 GRB NSLGRB SOLGRB 1e+08 0 Time in seconds (a) Time Taken Vs Domain Size 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Domain size (b) Cost at Domain Size 500 (c) # of Gndings Vs Domain Size Figure 1: IE 1e+06 Cost of unsat. formulas GRB NSLGRB SOLGRB Time in seconds 200 150 100 50 0 1e+10 GRB NSLGRB SOLGRB Ground theory size 250 100000 10000 1000 100 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 10 Domain size (a) Time Taken Vs Domain Size 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Time in seconds (b) Cost at Domain Size 500 GRB NSLGRB SOLGRB 1e+08 1e+06 10000 100 1 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Domain size (c) # of Gndings Vs Domain Size Figure 2: Friends & Smokers 7 Conclusion and Future Work We have presented two new rules for lifting MAP inference which are applicable to a wide variety of MLN theories and result in highly scalable solutions. The MAP inference problem becomes domain independent when every equivalence class is single occurrence. In the current framework, our rules have been used as a pre-processing step generating a reduced theory over which any existing MAP solver can be applied. This leaves open the question of effectively combining our rules with existing lifting rules in the literature. Consider the theory with two rules: S(X) ? R(X) and S(Y ) ? R(Z) ? T (U ). Here, the equivalence class {X, Y, Z} is not single occurrence, and our algorithm will only be able to reduce the domain of equivalence class {U }. But if we apply Binomial rule [9] on S, we get a new theory where {X, Z} becomes a single occurrence equivalence class and we can resort to domain independent inference. 7 Therefore, application of Binomial rule before single occurrence would lead to larger savings. In general, there could be arbitrary orderings for applying lifted inference rules leading to different inference complexities. Exploring the properties of these orderings and coming up with an optimal one (or heuristics for the same) is a direction for future work. 8 Acknowledgements Happy Mittal was supported by TCS Research Scholar Program. Vibhav Gogate was partially supported by the DARPA Probabilistic Programming for Advanced Machine Learning Program under AFRL prime contract number FA8750-14-C-0005. We are grateful to Somdeb Sarkhel and Deepak Venugopal for sharing their code and also for helpful discussions. 7 A decomposer does not apply even after conditioning on S. 8 References [1] H. Bui, T. Huynh, and S. Riedel. Automorphism groups of graphical models and lifted variational inference. In Proc. of UAI-13, pages 132?141, 2013. [2] R. de Salvo Braz, E. Amir, and D. Roth. Lifted first-order probabilistic inference. In Proc. of IJCAI-05, pages 1319?1325, 2005. [3] R. de Salvo Braz, E. Amir, and D. Roth. MPE and partial inversion in lifted probabilistic variable elimination. In Proc. of AAAI-06, pages 1123?1130, 2006. [4] Pedro Domingos and Daniel Lowd. Markov Logic: An Interface Layer for Artificial Intelligence. Synthesis Lectures on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Morgan & Claypool Publishers, 2009. [5] G. Van den Broeck. On the completeness of first-order knowledge compilation for lifted probabilistic inference. In Proc. of NIPS-11, pages 1386?1394, 2011. [6] V. Gogate and P. Domingos. Probabilisitic theorem proving. In Proc. of UAI-11, pages 256?265, 2011. [7] V. Gogate, A. Jha, and D. Venugopal. Advances in lifted importance sampling. In Proc. of AAAI-12, pages 1910?1916, 2012. [8] Gurobi Optimization Inc. Gurobi Optimizer Reference Manual, 2013. http://gurobi.com. [9] Abhay Kumar Jha, Vibhav Gogate, Alexandra Meliou, and Dan Suciu. Lifted inference seen from the other side : The tractable features. In Proc. of NIPS-10, pages 973?981, 2010. [10] H. Kautz, B. Selman, and M. Shah. ReferralWeb: Combining social networks and collaborative filtering. Communications of the ACM, 40(3):63?66, 1997. [11] K. Kersting. Lifted probabilistic inference. In Proceedings of the Twentieth European Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pages 33?38, 2012. [12] K. Kersting, B. Ahmadi, and S. Natarajan. Counting belief propagation. In Proc. of UAI-09, pages 277?284, 2009. [13] S. Kok, M. Sumner, M. Richardson, P. Singla, H. Poon, D. Lowd, J. Wang, and P. Domingos. The Alchemy system for statistical relational AI. Technical report, University of Washington, 2008. http://alchemy.cs.washington.edu. [14] K. Kersting M. Mladenov and A. Globerson. Efficient lifting of map lp relaxations using k-locality. In Proc. of AISTATS-14, pages 623?632, 2014. [15] Mathias Niepert and Guy Van den Broeck. Tractability through exchangeability: A new perspective on efficient probabilistic inference. In Proc. of AAAI-14, pages 2467?2475, 2014. [16] J. Noessner, M. Niepert, and H. Stuckenschmidt. RockIt: Exploiting parallelism and symmetry for MAP inference in statistical relational models. In Proc. of AAAI-13, pages 739?745, 2013. [17] D. Poole. First-order probabilistic inference. In Proc. of IJCAI-03, pages 985?991, 2003. [18] Stuart J. Russell and Peter Norvig. Artificial Intelligence - A Modern Approach (3rd edition). Pearson Education, 2010. [19] S. Sarkhel, D. Venugopal, P. Singla, and V. Gogate. Lifted MAP inference for Markov logic networks. In Proc. of AISTATS-14, pages 895?903, 2014. [20] P. Singla and P. Domingos. Lifted first-order belief propagation. In Proc. of AAAI-08, pages 1094?1099, 2008. [21] D. Venugopal and V. Gogate. On lifting the Gibbs sampling algorithm. In Proc. of NIPS-12, pages 1664?1672, 2012. 9
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An Integer Polynomial Programming Based Framework for Lifted MAP Inference Somdeb Sarkhel, Deepak Venugopal Computer Science Department The University of Texas at Dallas {sxs104721,dxv021000}@utdallas.edu Parag Singla Department of CSE I.I.T. Delhi parags@cse.iitd.ac.in Vibhav Gogate Computer Science Department The University of Texas at Dallas vgogate@hlt.utdallas.edu Abstract In this paper, we present a new approach for lifted MAP inference in Markov logic networks (MLNs). The key idea in our approach is to compactly encode the MAP inference problem as an Integer Polynomial Program (IPP) by schematically applying three lifted inference steps to the MLN: lifted decomposition, lifted conditioning, and partial grounding. Our IPP encoding is lifted in the sense that an integer assignment to a variable in the IPP may represent a truth-assignment to multiple indistinguishable ground atoms in the MLN. We show how to solve the IPP by first converting it to an Integer Linear Program (ILP) and then solving the latter using state-of-the-art ILP techniques. Experiments on several benchmark MLNs show that our new algorithm is substantially superior to ground inference and existing methods in terms of computational efficiency and solution quality. 1 Introduction Many domains in AI and machine learning (e.g., NLP, vision, etc.) are characterized by rich relational structure as well as uncertainty. Statistical relational learning (SRL) models [5] combine the power of first-order logic with probabilistic graphical models to effectively handle both of these aspects. Among a number of SRL representations that have been proposed to date, Markov logic [4] is arguably the most popular one because of its simplicity; it compactly represents domain knowledge using a set of weighted first order formulas and thus only minimally modifies first-order logic. The key task over Markov logic networks (MLNs) is inference which is the means of answering queries posed over the MLN. Although, one can reduce the problem of inference in MLNs to inference in graphical models by propositionalizing or grounding the MLN (which yields a Markov network), this approach is not scalable. The reason is that the resulting Markov network can be quite large, having millions of variables and features. One approach to achieve scalability is lifted inference, which operates on groups of indistinguishable random variables rather than on individual variables. Lifted inference algorithms identify groups of indistinguishable atoms by looking for symmetries in the first-order logic representation, grounding the MLN only as necessary. Naturally, when the number of such groups is small, lifted inference is significantly better than propositional inference. Starting with the work of Poole [17], researchers have invented a number of lifted inference algorithms. At a high level, these algorithms ?lift? existing probabilistic inference algorithms (cf. [3, 6, 7, 21, 22, 23, 24]). However, many of these lifted inference algorithms have focused on the task of marginal inference, i.e., finding the marginal probability of a ground atom given evidence. For many problems 1 of interest such as in vision and NLP, one is often interested in the MAP inference task, i.e., finding the most likely assignment to all ground atoms given evidence. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in lifted MAP inference. Notable lifted MAP approaches include exploiting uniform assignments for lifted MPE [1], lifted variational inference using graph automorphism [2], lifted likelihood-maximization for MAP [8], exploiting symmetry for MAP inference [15] and efficient lifting of MAP LP relaxations using k-locality [13]. However, a key problem with most of the existing lifted approaches is that they require significant modifications to be made to propositional inference algorithms, and for optimal performance require lifting several steps of propositional algorithms. This is time consuming because one has to lift decades of advances in propositional inference. To circumvent this problem, recently Sarkhel et al. [18] advocated using the ?lifting as pre-processing? paradigm [20]. The key idea is to apply lifted inference as pre-processing step and construct a Markov network that is lifted in the sense that its size can be much smaller than ground Markov network and a complete assignment to its variables may represent several complete assignments in the ground Markov network. Unfortunately, Sarkhel et al.?s approach does not use existing research on lifted inference to the fullest extent and is efficient only when first-order formulas have no shared terms. In this paper, we propose a novel lifted MAP inference approach which is also based on the ?lifting as pre-processing? paradigm but unlike Sarkhel et al.?s approach is at least as powerful as probabilistic theorem proving [6], an advanced lifted inference algorithm. Moreover, our new approach can easily subsume Sarkhel et al.?s approach by using it as just another lifted inference rule. The key idea in our approach is to reduce the lifted MAP inference (maximization) problem to an equivalent Integer Polynomial Program (IPP). Each variable in the IPP potentially refers to an assignment to a large number of ground atoms in the original MLN. Hence, the size of search space of the generated IPP can be significantly smaller than the ground Markov network. Our algorithm to generate the IPP is based on the following three lifted inference operations which incrementally build the polynomial objective function and its associated constraints: (1) Lifted decomposition [6] finds sub-problems with identical structure and solves only one of them; (2) Lifted conditioning [6] replaces an atom with only one logical variable (singleton atom) by a variable in the integer polynomial program such that each of its values denotes the number of the true ground atoms of the singleton atom in a solution; and (3) Partial grounding is used to simplify the MLN further so that one of the above two operations can be applied. To solve the IPP generated from the MLN we convert it to an equivalent zero-one Integer Linear Program (ILP) using a classic conversion method outlined in [25]. A desirable characteristic of our reduction is that we can use any off-the-shelf ILP solver to get exact or approximate solution to the original problem. We used a parallel ILP solver, Gurobi [9] for this purpose. We evaluated our approach on multiple benchmark MLNs and compared with Alchemy [11] and Tuffy [14], two state-of-the-art MLN systems that perform MAP inference by grounding the MLN, as well as with the lifted MAP inference approach of Sarkhel et al. [18]. Experimental results show that our approach is superior to Alchemy, Tuffy and Sarkhel et al.?s approach in terms of scalability and accuracy. 2 Notation And Background Propositional Logic. In propositional logic, sentences or formulas, denoted by f , are composed of symbols called propositions or atoms, denoted by upper case letters (e.g., X, Y , Z, etc.) that are joined by five logical operators ? (conjunction), ? (disjunction), ? (negation), ? (implication) and ? (equivalence). Each atom takes values from the binary domain {true, f alse}. First-order Logic. An atom in first-order logic (FOL) is a predicate that represents relations between objects. A predicate consists of a predicate symbol, denoted by Monospace fonts (e.g., Friends, R, etc.), followed by a parenthesized list of arguments. A term is a logical variable, denoted by lower case letters such as x, y, and z, or a constant, denoted by upper case letters such as X, Y , and Z. We assume that each logical variable, say x, is typed and takes values from a finite set of constants, called its domain, denoted by ?x. In addition to the logical operators, FOL includes universal ? and existential ? quantifiers. Quantifiers express properties of an entire collection of objects. A formula in first order logic is an atom, or any complex sentence that can be constructed from atoms using logical operators and quantifiers. For example, the formula ?x Smokes(x) ? Asthma(x) states that all persons who smoke have asthma. A Knowledge base (KB) is a set of first-order formulas. 2 In this paper we use a subset of FOL which has no function symbols, equality constraints or existential quantifiers. We assume that formulas are standardized apart, namely no two formulas share a logical variable. We also assume that domains are finite and there is a one-to-one mapping between constants and objects in the domain (Herbrand interpretations). We assume that each formula f is of the form ?xf , where x is the set of variables in f (also denoted by V (f )) and f is a disjunction of literals (clause); each literal being an atom or its negation. For brevity, we will drop ? from all formulas. A ground atom is an atom containing only constants. A ground formula is a formula obtained by substituting all of its variables with a constant, namely a formula containing only ground atoms. A ground KB is a KB containing all possible groundings of all of its formulas. Markov Logic. Markov logic [4] extends FOL by softening hard constraints expressed by formulas and is arguably the most popular modeling language for SRL. A soft formula or a weighted formula is a pair (f, w) where f is a formula in FOL and w is a real-number. A Markov logic network (MLN), denoted by M , is a set of weighted formulas (fi , wi ). Given a set of constants that represent objects in the domain, a Markov logic network represents a Markov network or a log-linear model. The ground Markov network is obtained by grounding the weighted first-order knowledge base with one feature for each grounding of each formula. The weight of the feature is the weight attached to the formula. P The ground network represents the probability distribution P (?) = Z1 exp ( i wi N (fi , ?)) where ? is a world, namely a truth-assignment to all ground atoms, N (fi , ?) is the number of groundings of fi that evaluate to true given ? and Z is a normalization constant. For simplicity, we will assume that the MLN is in normal form and has no self joins, namely no two atoms in a formula have the same predicate symbol [10]. A normal MLN is an MLN that satisfies the following two properties: (i) there are no constants in any formula; and (ii) If two distinct atoms of predicate R have variables x and y as the same argument of R, then ?x = ?y. Because of the second condition, in normal MLNs, we can associate domains with each argument of a predicate. Moreover, for inference purposes, in normal MLNs, we do not have to keep track of the actual elements in the domain of a variable, all we need to know is the size of the domain [10]. Let iR denote the i-th argument of predicate R and let D(iR ) denote the number of elements in the domain of iR . Henceforth, we will abuse notation and refer to normal MLNs as MLNs. MAP Inference in MLNs. A common optimization inference task over MLNs is finding the most probable state of the world ?, that is finding a complete assignment to all ground atoms which maximizes the probability. Formally, ! X X 1 exp wi N (fi , ?) = arg max wi N (fi , ?) (1) arg max PM (?) = arg max ? ? ? Z(M) i i From Eq. (1), we can see that the MAP problem in Markov logic reduces to finding the truth assignment that maximizes the sum of weights of satisfied clauses. Therefore, any weighted satisfiability solver can used to solve this problem. The problem is NP-hard in general, but effective solvers exist, both exact and approximate. Examples of such solvers are MaxWalkSAT [19], a local search solver and Clone [16], a branch-and-bound solver. Both these algorithms are propositional and therefore they are unable to exploit relational structure that is inherent to MLNs. Integer Polynomial Programming (IPP). An IPP problem is defined as follows: Maximize f (x1 , x2 , ..., xn ) Subject to gj (x1 , x2 , ..., xn ) ? 0 (j = 1, 2, ..., m) where each xi takes finite integer values, and the objective function f (x1 , x2 , ..., xn ), and each of the constraints gj (x1 , x2 , ..., xn ) are polynomials on x1 , x2 , ..., xn . We will compactly represent an integer polynomial programming problem (IPP) as an ordered triple I = hf, G, Xi, where X = {x1 , x2 , ..., xn }, and G = {g1 , g2 , ..., gm }. 3 Probabilistic Theorem Proving Based MAP Inference Algorithm We motivate our approach by presenting in Algorithm 1, the most basic algorithm for lifted MAP inference. Algorithm 1 extends the probabilistic theorem proving (PTP) algorithm of Gogate and Domingos [6] to MAP inference and integrates it with Sarkhel et al?s lifted MAP inference rule [18]. It is obtained by replacing the summation operator in the conditioning step of PTP by the maximization operator (PTP computes the partition function). Note that throughout the paper, we will present 3 algorithms that compute the MAP value rather than the MAP assignment; the assignment can be recovered by tracing back the path that yielded the MAP value. We describe the steps in Algorithm 1 next, starting with some required definitions. Two arguments iR and jS are called unifiable if they share a logical variable in a MLN formula. Clearly, unifiable, if we consider it as Algorithm 1 PTP-MAP(MLN M ) if M is empty return 0 a binary relation U (iR , jS ) is symmetric and Simplify(M ) reflexive. Let U be the transitive closure of if M has disjoint MLNs M1 , . . . , Mk then U . Given an argument iS , let Unify(iS ) denote P return ki=1 PTP-MAP(Mi ) the equivalence class under U. if M has a decomposer d such that D(i ? d) > 1 then Simplification. In the simplification step, we return PTP-MAP(M |d) simplify the predicates possibly reducing their if M has an isolated atom R such that D(iR ) > 1 then arity (cf. [6, 10] for details). An example simreturn PTP-MAP (M |{1R }) plification step is the following: if no atoms of if M has a singleton atom A then a predicate share logical variables with other D(1 ) return maxi=0 A PTP-MAP(M |(A, i)) + w(A, i) atoms in the MLN then we can replace the Heuristically select an argument iR predicate by a new predicate having just one return PTP-MAP(M |G(iR )) argument; the domain size of the argument is the product of domain sizes of the individual arguments. Example 1. Consider a normal MLN with two weighted formulas: R(x1 , y1 ) ? S(z1 , u1 ), w1 and R(x2 , y2 ) ? S(z2 , u2 ) ? T(z2 , v2 ), w2 . We can simplify this MLN by replacing R by a predicate J having one argument such that D(1J ) = D(1R ) ? D(2R ). The new MLN has two formulas: J(x1 ) ? S(z1 , u1 ), w1 and J(x2 ) ? S(z2 , u2 ) ? T(z2 , v2 ), w2 . Decomposition. If an MLN can be decomposed into two or more disjoint MLNs sharing no first-order atom, then the MAP solution is just a sum over the MAP solutions of all the disjoint MLNs. Lifted Decomposition. Main idea in lifted decomposition [6] is to identify identical but disconnected components in ground Markov network by looking for symmetries in the first-order representation. Since the disconnected components are identical, only one of them needs to be solved and the MAP value is the MAP value of one of the components times the number of components. One way of identifying identical disconnected components is by using a decomposer [6, 10], defined below. Definition 1. [Decomposer] Given a MLN M having m formulas denoted by f1 , . . . , fm , d = Unify(iR ) where R is a predicate in M , is called a decomposer iff the following conditions are satisfied: (i) for each predicate R in M there is exactly one argument iR such that iR ? d; and (ii) in each formula fi , there exists a variable x such that x appears in all atoms of fi and for each atom having predicate symbol R in fi , x appears at position iR ? d. Denoted by M |d the MLN obtained from M by setting domain size of all elements iR of d to one and updating weight of each formula that mentions R by multiplying it by D(iR ). We can prove that: Proposition 1. Given a decomposer d, the MAP value of M is equal to the MAP value of M |d. Example 2. Consider a normal MLN M having two weighted formulas R(x) ? S(x), w1 and R(y) ? T(y), w2 where D(1R ) = D(1S ) = D(1T ) = n. Here, d = {1R , 1S , 1T } is a decomposer. The MLN M |d is the MLN having the same two formulas as M with weights updated to nw1 and nw2 respectively. Moreover, in the new MLN D(1R ) = D(1S ) = D(1T ) = 1. Isolated Singleton Rule. Sarkhel et al. [18] proved that if the MLN M has an isolated predicate R such that all atoms of R do not share any logical variables with other atoms, then one of the MAP solutions of M has either all ground atoms of R set to true or all of them set to f alse, namely, the solution lies at the extreme assignments to groundings of R. Since we simplify the MLN, all such predicates R have only one argument, namely, they are singleton. Therefore, the following proposition is immediate: Proposition 2. If M has an isolated singleton predicate R, then the MAP value of M equals the MAP value of M |{1R } (the notation M |{1R } is defined just after the definition of the decomposer). Lifted Conditioning over Singletons. Performing a conditioning operation on a predicate means conditioning on all possible ground atoms of that predicate. Na??vely it can result in exponential 4 number of alternate MLNs that need to be solved, one for each assignment to all groundings of the predicate. However if the predicate is singleton, we can group these assignments into equi-probable sets based on number of true groundings of the predicate (counting assignment) [6, 10, 12]. In this case, we say that the lifted conditioning operator is applicable. For a singleton A, we denote the counting assignment as the ordered pair (A, i) which the reader should interpret as exactly i groundings of A are true and the remaining are f alse. We denote by M |(A, i) the MLN obtained from M as follows. For each element jR in Unify(1A ) (in some order), we split the predicate R into two predicates R1 and R2 such that D(jR1 ) = i and D(jR2 ) = D(1A ) ? i. We then rewrite all formulas using these new predicate symbols. Assume that A is split into two predicates A1 and A2 respectively with D(1A1 ) = i and D(1A2 ) = D(1A ) ? i. Then, we delete all formulas in which either A1 appears positively or A2 appears negatively (because they are satisfied). Next, we delete all literals of A1 and A2 from all formulas in the MLN. The weights of all formulas (which are not deleted) remain unchanged except those formulas in which atoms of A1 or A2 do not share logical variables with other atoms. The weight of each such formula f with weight w is changed to w ? D(1A1 ) if A1 appears in the clause or to w ? D(1A2 ) if A2 appears in the clause. The weight w(A, i) is calculated as follows. Let F (A1 ) and F (A2 ) denote the set of satisfied formulas (which are deleted) in which A1 and A2 participate in. We introduce some additional notation. Let V (f ) denote the set of logical variables in a formula f . Given a formula f , for each variable y ? V (f ), let iR (y) denote the position of the argument of a predicate R such that y appears at that position in an atom of R in f . Then, w(A, i) is given by: 2 X X Y w(A, i) = wj D(iR (y)) k=1 fj ?F (Ak ) y?V (fj ) We can show that: Proposition 3. Given an MLN M having singleton atom A, the MAP-value of M equals D(1 ) maxi=0 A MAP-value(M |(A, i)) + w(A, i). Example 3. Consider a normal MLN M having two weighted formulas R(x) ? S(x), w1 and R(y) ? S(z), w2 with domain sizes D(1R ) = D(1S ) = n. The MLN M |(R, i) is the MLN having three weighted formulas: S2 (x2 ), w1 ; S1 (x1 ), w2 (n ? i) and S2 (x3 ), w2 (n ? i) with domains D(1S1 ) = i and D(1S2 ) = n ? i. The weight w(R, i) = iw1 + niw2 . Partial grounding. In the absence of a decomposer, or when the singleton rule is not applicable, we will have to partially ground a predicate. For this, we heuristically select an argument iR to ground. Let M |G(iR ) denote the MLN obtained from M as follows. For each argument iS ? Unify(iR ), we create D(iS ) new predicates which have all arguments of S except iS . We then update all formulas with the new predicates. For example, Example 4. Consider a MLN with two formulas: R(x, y) ? S(y, z), w1 and S(a, b) ? T(a, c), w2 . Let D(2R ) = 2. After grounding 2R , we get an MLN having four formulas: R1 (x1 ) ? S1 (z1 ), w1 , R2 (x2 ) ? S2 (z2 ), w1 , S1 (b1 ) ? T1 (c1 ), w2 and S2 (b2 ) ? T2 (c2 ), w2 . Since partial grounding will create many new clauses, we will try to use this operator as sparingly as possible. The following theorem is immediate from [6, 18] and the discussion above. Theorem 1. PTP-MAP(M ) computes the MAP value of M . 4 Integer Polynomial Programming formulation for Lifted MAP PTP-MAP performs an exhaustive search over all possible lifted assignments in order to find the optimal MAP value. It can be very slow without proper pruning, and that is why branch-and-bound algorithms are widely used for many similar optimization tasks. The branch-and-bound algorithm maintains a global best solution found so far, as a lower bound. If the estimated upper bound of a node is not better than the lower bound, the node is pruned and the search continues with other branches. However instead of developing a lifted MAP specific upper bound heuristic to improve Algorithm 1, we propose to encode the lifted search problem as an Integer Polynomial Programming (IPP) problem. This way we can use existing off-the-shelf advanced machinery, which includes pruning techniques, search heuristics, caching, problem decomposition and upper bounding techniques, to solve the IPP. 5 At a high level, our encoding algorithm runs PTP-MAP schematically, performing all steps in PTPMAP except the search or conditioning step. Before we present our algorithm, we define schematic MLNs (SMLNs) ? a basic structure on which our algorithm operates. SMLNs are normal MLNs with two differences: (1) weights attached to formulas are polynomials instead of constants and (2) Domain sizes of arguments are linear expressions instead of constants. Algorithm 2 presents our approach to encode lifted MAP problem as an IPP problem. It mirrors Algorithm 1, with only difference being at the lifted condi- Algorithm 2 SMLN-2-IPP(SMLN S) tioning step. Specifically, in lifted conditioning step, if S is empty return h0, ?, ?i instead of going over all possible branches correSimplify(S) sponding to all possible counting assignments, the if S has disjoint SMLNs then algorithm uses a representative branch which has a for disjoint SMLNs Si ...Sk in S variable associated for the corresponding counting hfi , GP i , Xi i = SMLN-2-IPP(Si ) assignment. All update steps described in the previreturn h ki=1 fi , ?ki=1 Gi , ?ki=1 Xi i ous section remain unchanged with the caveat that in if S has a decomposer d then S|(A, i), i is symbolic(an integer variable). At termireturn SMLN-2-IPP(S|d) nation, Algorithm 2 yields an IPP. Following theorem if S has a isolated singleton R then is immediate from the correctness of Algorithm 1. return SMLN-2-IPP(S|{iR }) if S has a singleton atom A then Theorem 2. Given an MLN M and its associated Introduce an IPP variable ?i? schematic MLN S, the optimum solution to the InteForm a constraint g as ?(0 ? i ? D(1A ))? ger Polynomial Programming problem returned by hf, G, Xi = SMLN-2-IPP(S|(A, i)) SMLN-2-IPP(S) is the MAP solution of M . return hf + w(A, i), G ? {g}, X ? {i}i Heuristically select an argument iR return SMLN-2-IPP(S|G(iR )) In the next three examples, we show the IPP output by Algorithm 2 on some example MLNs. Example 5. Consider an MLN having one weighted formula: R(x) ? S(x), w1 such that D(1R ) = D(1S ) = n. Here, d = {1R , 1S } is a decomposer. By applying the decomposer rule, weight of the formula becomes nw1 and domain size is set to 1. After conditioning on R objective function obtained is nw1 r and the formula changes to S(x), nw1 (1 ? r). After conditioning on S, the IPP obtained has objective function nw1 r + nw1 (1 ? r)s and two constraints: 0 ? r ? 1 and 0 ? s ? 1. Example 6. Consider an MLN having one weighted formula: R(x) ? S(y), w1 such that D(1R ) = nx and D(1S ) = ny . Here R and S are isolated, and therefore by applying the isolated singleton rule weight of the formula becomes nx ny w1 . This is similar to the previous example; only weight of the formula is different. Therefore, substituting this new weight, IPP output by Algorithm 2 will have objective function nx ny w1 r + nx ny w1 (1 ? r)s and two constraints 0 ? r ? 1 and 0 ? s ? 1. Example 7. Consider an MLN having two weighted formulas: R(x) ? S(x), w1 and R(z) ? S(y), w2 such that D(1R ) = D(1S ) = n. On this MLN, the IPP output by Algorithm 2 has the objective function rw1 + r2 w2 + rw2 (n ? r) + s2 w1 (n ? r) + s2 w2 (n ? r)2 + s1 w2 (n ? r)r and constraints 0 ? r ? n, 0 ? s1 ? 1 and 0 ? s2 ? 1. The operations that will be applied in order are: lifted conditioning on R creating two new predicates S1 and S2 ; decomposer on 1S1 ; decomposer on 1S2 ; and then lifted conditioning on S1 and S2 respectively. 4.1 Solving Integer Polynomial Programming Problem Although we can directly solve the IPP using any off-the-shelf mathematical optimization software, IPP solvers are not as mature as Integer Linear programming(ILP) solvers. Therefore, for efficiency reasons, we propose to convert the IPP to an ILP using the classic method outlined in [25] (we skip the details for lack of space). The method first converts the IPP to a zero-one Polynomial Programming problem and then subsequently linearizes it by adding additional variables and constraints for each higher degree terms. Once the problem is converted to an ILP problem we can use any standard ILP solver to solve it. Next, we state a key property about this conversion in the following theorem. Theorem 3. The search space for solving the IPP obtained from Algorithm 2 by using the conversion described in [25] is polynomial in the max-range of the variables. Proof. Let n be number of variables of the IPP problem, where each of the variables has range from 0 to (d ? 1) (i.e., for each variable 0 ? vi ? d ? 1). As we first convert everything to binary, the 6 zero-one Polynomial Programming problem will have O(n log2 d) variables. If the highest degree of a term in the IPP problem is k, we will need to introduce O(log2 dk ) binary variables (as multiplying k variables, each bounded by d, will result in terms bounded by dk ) to linearize it. Since search space of an ILP is exponential in number of variables, search space for solving the IPP problem is: k O(2(n log2 d+log2 d ) ) = O(2n log2 d )O(2k log2 d ) = O(dn )O(dk ) = O(dn+k ) We conclude this section by summarizing the power of our new approach: Theorem 4. The search space of the IPP returned by Algorithm 2 is smaller than or equal to the search space of the Integer Linear Program (ILP) obtained using the algorithm proposed in Sarkhel et al. [18], which in turn is smaller than the size of the search space associated with the ground Markov network. 5 Experiments We used a parallelized ILP solver called Gurobi [9] to solve ILPs generated by our algorithm as well as by other competing algorithms used in our experimental study. We compared performance of our new lifted algorithm (which we call IPP) with four other algorithms from literature: Alchemy (ALY) [11], Tuffy(TUFFY) [14], ground inference based on ILP (ILP), and lifted MAP (LMAP) algorithm of Sarkhel et al. [18]. Alchemy and Tuffy are two state-of-the-art open source software for learning and inference in MLNs. Both of them first ground the MLN and then use an approximate solver, MaxWalkSAT [19] to compute MAP solution. Unlike Alchemy, Tuffy uses clever Database tricks to speed up computation. ILP is obtained by converting MAP problem over ground Markov network to an ILP. LMAP also converts the MAP problem to ILP, however its ILP encoding can be much more compact than ones used by ground inference methods because it processes ?non-shared atoms? in a lifted manner (see [18] for details). We used following three MLNs to evaluate our algorithm: (i) An MLN which we call Student that consists of following four formulas, Teaches(teacher,course) ? Takes(student,course) ? JobOffers(student,company); Teaches(teacher,course); Takes(student,course); ?JobOffers(student,company) (ii) An MLN which we call Relationship that consists of following four formulas, Loves(person1 ,person2) ? Friends(person2, person3) ? Hates(person1, person3); Loves(person1, person2); Friends(person1, person2); ?Hates(person1, person2); (iii) Citation Information-Extraction (IE) MLN [11] from the Alchemy web page, consisting of five predicates and fourteen formulas. To compare performance and scalability, we ran each algorithm on aforementioned MLNs for varying time-bounds and recorded solution quality (i.e., the total weight of false clauses) achieved by each. All our experiments were run on a third generation i7 quad-core machine having 8GB RAM. For Student MLNs, results are shown in Fig 1(a)-(c). On the MLN having 161K clauses, ILP, LMAP and IPP converge quickly to the optimal answer while TUFFY converges faster than ALY. For the MLN with 812K clauses, LMAP and IPP converge faster than ILP and TUFFY. ALY is unable to handle this large Markov network and runs out of memory. For the MLN with 8.1B clauses, only LMAP and IPP are able to produce a solution with IPP converging much faster than LMAP. On this large MLN, all three ground inference algorithms, ILP, ALY and TUFFY ran out of memory. Results for Relationship MLNs are shown in Fig 1(d)-(f) and are similar to Student MLNs. On MLNs with 9.2K and 29.7K clauses ILP, LMAP and IPP converge faster than TUFFY and ALY, while TUFFY converges faster than ALY. On the largest MLN having 1M clauses only LMAP, ILP and IPP are able to produce a solution with IPP converging much faster than other two. For IE MLN results are shown in Fig 1(g)-(i) which show a similar picture with IPP outperforming other algorithms as we increase number of objects in the domain. In fact on the largest IE MLN having 15.6B clauses only IPP is able to output a solution while other approaches ran out of memory. In summary, as expected, IPP and LMAP, two lifted approaches are more accurate and scalable than three propositional inference approaches: ILP, TUFFY and ALY. IPP not only scales much better but also converges much faster than LMAP, clearly demonstrating the power of our new approach. 7 100000 1e+06 1e+15 ALY TUFFY IPP ILP LMAP TUFFY IPP ILP LMAP 10000 IPP LMAP 1e+14 1e+13 1e+12 100000 Cost Cost Cost 1e+11 1e+10 1e+09 1000 10000 1e+08 1e+07 1e+06 100 1000 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 100000 0 20 40 Time in Seconds 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 20 40 Time in Seconds (a) Student(1.2K,161K,200) 10000 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 (b) Student(2.7K,812K,450) (c) Student(270K,8.1B,45K) 100000 100000 ALY TUFFY IPP ILP LMAP 200 Time in Seconds TUFFY IPP ILP LMAP IPP ILP LMAP Cost Cost Cost 10000 1000 1000 100 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 10000 0 20 40 Time in Seconds 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 (d) Relation(1.2K,9.2K,200) 40 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 (f) Relation(30K,1M,5K) 1e+09 ALY TUFFY IPP ILP LMAP 60 Time in Seconds (e) Relation(2.7K,29.7K,450) 1e+08 1e+07 20 Time in Seconds 1e+06 IPP LMAP IPP 1e+08 Cost Cost Cost 1e+06 1e+07 100000 1e+06 10000 1000 100000 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Time in Seconds (g) IE(3.2K,1M,100) 180 200 100000 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Time in Seconds (h) IE(82.8K,731.6M,900) 200 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Time in Seconds (i) IE(380K,15.6B,2.5K) Figure 1: Cost vs Time: Cost of unsatisfied clauses(smaller is better) vs time for different domain sizes. Notation used to label each figure: MLN(numvariables, numclauses, numevidences). Note: three quantities reported are for ground Markov network associated with the MLN. Standard deviation is plotted as error bars. 6 Conclusion In this paper we presented a general approach for lifted MAP inference in Markov logic networks (MLNs). The main idea in our approach is to encode MAP problem as an Integer Polynomial Program (IPP) by schematically applying three lifted inference steps to the MLN: lifted decomposition, lifted conditioning and partial grounding. To solve the IPP, we propose to convert it to an Integer Linear Program (ILP) using the classic method outlined in [25]. The virtue of our approach is that the resulting ILP can be much smaller than the one obtained from ground Markov network. Moreover, our approach subsumes the recently proposed lifted MAP inference approach of Sarkhel et al. [18] and is at least as powerful as probabilistic theorem proving [6]. Perhaps, the key advantage of our approach is that it runs lifted inference as a pre-processing step, reducing the size of the theory and then applies advanced propositional inference algorithms to this theory without any modifications. Thus, we do not have to explicitly lift (and efficiently implement) decades worth of research and advances on propositional inference algorithms, treating them as a black-box. Acknowledgments This work was supported in part by the AFRL under contract number FA8750-14-C-0021, by the ARO MURI grant W911NF-08-1-0242, and by the DARPA Probabilistic Programming for Advanced Machine Learning Program under AFRL prime contract number FA8750-14-C-0005. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or official policies, either expressed or implied, of DARPA, AFRL, ARO or the US government. 8 References [1] Udi Apsel and Ronen I. Braman. 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164 MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF LEARNING BEHAVIOR OF NEURONAL MODELS By JOHN Y. CHEUNG MASSOUD OMIDVAR SCHOOL OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA NORMAN, OK 73019 Presented to the IEEE Conference on "Neural Information Processing SystemsNatural and Synthetic," Denver, November ~12, 1987, and to be published in the Collection of Papers from the IEEE Conference on NIPS. Please address all further correspondence to: John Y. Cheung School of EECS 202 W. Boyd, CEC 219 Norman, OK 73019 (405)325-4721 November, 1987 ? American Institute of Physics 1988 165 MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF LEARNING BEHAVIOR OF NEURONAL MODELS John Y. Cheung and Massoud Omidvar School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science ABSTRACT In this paper, we wish to analyze the convergence behavior of a number of neuronal plasticity models. Recent neurophysiological research suggests that the neuronal behavior is adaptive. In particular, memory stored within a neuron is associated with the synaptic weights which are varied or adjusted to achieve learning. A number of adaptive neuronal models have been proposed in the literature. Three specific models will be analyzed in this paper, specifically the Hebb model, the Sutton-Barto model, and the most recent trace model. In this paper we will examine the conditions for convergence, the position of convergence and the rate at convergence, of these models as they applied to classical conditioning. Simulation results are also presented to verify the analysis. INTRODUCTION A number of static models to describe the behavior of a neuron have been in use in the past decades. More recently, research in neurophysiology suggests that a static view may be insufficient. Rather, the parameters within a neuron tend to vary with past history to achieve learning. It was suggested that by altering the internal parameters, neurons may adapt themselves to repetitive input stimuli and become conditioned. Learning thus occurs when the neurons are conditioned. To describe this behavior of neuronal plasticity, a number of models have been proposed. The earliest one may have been postulated by Hebb and more recently by Sutton and Barto 1. We will also introduce a new model, the most recent trace (or MRT) model in this paper. The primary objective of this paper, however, is to analyze the convergence behavior of these models during adaptation. The general neuronal model used in this paper is shown in Figure 1. There are a number of neuronal inputs x,(t), i = 1, ... , N. Each input is scaled by the corresponding synaptic weights w,(t), i = 1, ... , N. The weighted inputs are arithmetically summed. N y(t) = L x,(t)w,(t) - 9(t) ,=1 where 9(t) is taken to be zero. (1) 166 Neuronal inputs are assumed to take on numerical values ranging from zero to one inclusively. Synaptic weights are allowed to take on any reasonable values for the purpose of this paper though in reality, the weights may very well be bounded. Since the relative magnitude of the weights and the neuronal inputs are not well defined at this point, we will not put a bound on the magnitude of the weights also. The neuronal output is normally the result of a sigmoidal transformation. For simplicity, we will approximate this operation by a linear transformation. Sigmodial Transfonution neuronal output H+-+y rilure 1. A leneral aeuronal .adel. For convergence analysis, we will assume that there are only two neuronal inputs in the traditional classical conditioning environment for simplicity. Of course, the analysis techniques can be extended to any number of inputs. In classical conditioning, the two inputs are the conditioned stimulus Xc (t) and the unconditioned stimulus xu(t). THE SUTTON-BARTO MODEL More recently, Sutton and Barto 1 have proposed an adaptive model based on both the signal trace x,(t) and the output trace y(t) as given below: w,(t + 1) =w,(t) + cx,(t)(y(t)) - y(t) y(t + 1) ={Jy(t) + (1 - {J)y(t) Xi(t + 1) =axi(t) + Xi(t) where both a and {J are positive constants. (2a) (2b) (2c) 167 Condition of Convergence In order to simplify the analysis, we will choose Q = 0 and (3 = 0, i.e.: %,(t) = x,(t - 1) and y(t) = y(t - 1) In other words, (2a) becomes: Wi(t + 1) = Wi(t) + CXi(t)(y(t) - y(t - I)} (3) The above assumption only serves to simplify the analysis and will not affect the convergence conditions because the boundedness of %i(t) and y(t) only depends on that for Xi(t) and y(t - 1) respectively. As in the previous section, we recognize that (3) is a recurrence relation so convergence can be checked by the ratio test. It is also possible to rewrite (3) in matrix format. Due to the recursion of the neuronal output in the equation, we will include the neuronal output y(t) in the parameter vector also: (4) or To show convergence, we need to set the magnitude of the determinant of A (S-B) to be less than unity. (5) Hence, the condition for convergence is: (6) From (6), we can see that the adaptation constant must be chosen to be less than the reciprocal of the Euclidean sum of energies of all the inputs. The same techniques can be extended to any number of inputs. This can be proved merely by following the same procedures outlined above. Position At Convergence 168 Having proved convergence of the Sutton-Barto model equations of neuronal plasticity, we want to find out next at what location the system remains when converged. We have seen earlier that at convergence, the weights cease to change and so does the neuronal output. We will denote this converged position as (W(S-B?- W(S-B) (00). In other words: = (7) Since any arbitrary parameter vector can always be decomposed into a weighted sum of the eigenvectors, i.e. (8) The constants Ql, Q2, and Q3 can easily be found by inverting A(5-B). The eigenvalues of A(5-B) can be shown to be 1, 1, and c(%j + %~}. When c is within the region of convergence, the magnitude of the third eigenvalue is less than unity. That means that at convergence, there will be no contribution from the third eigenvector. Hence, (9) From (9), we can predict precisely what the converged position would be given only with the initial conditions. Rate of Convergence We have seen that when c is carefully chosen, the Sutton-Barto model will converge and we have also derived an expression for the converged position. Next we want to find out how fast convergence can be attained. The rate of convergence is a measure of how fast the initial parameter approaches the optimal position. The asymptotic rate of convergence is 2 : (10) where SeA (5-B? is the spectral radius and is equalled to c(%~ + %~) in this case. This completes the convergence analysis on the Sutton-Barto model of neuronal plasticity. THE MRT MODEL OF NEURONAL PLASTICITY The most recent trace (MRT) model of neuronal plasticity 3 developed by the authors can be considered as a cross between the Sutton-Barto model and the Klopf's model ". The adaptation of the synaptic weights can he expressed as follows: (11) 169 A comparison of (11) and the Sutton-Barto model in (3) ahOWl that the .cond term on the right hand aide contains an extra factor, Wi(t), which iI used to apeed up the convergence as ahoWD later. The output trace hu been replaced by If(t - 1), the most recent output, hence the name, the most recent trace model. The input trace is also replaced by the most recent input. Condition of Convergence We can now proceed to analyze the condition of convergence for the MRT model. Due to the presence of the Wi(t) factor in the second term in (31), the ratio test cannot be applied here. To analyze the convergence behavior further, let us rewrite (11) in matrix format: 0)o ( o WI(t) W2(t) ) y(t - 1) (12) or The superscript T denotes the matrix transpose operation. The above equation is quadratic in W(MRT)(t). Complete convergence analysis of this equation is extremely difficult. In order to understand the convergence behavior of (12), we note that the dominant term that determines convergence mainly relates to the second quadratic term. Hence for convergence analysis only, we will ignore the first term: (13) We can readily see from above that the primary convergence factor is BT c. Since C is only dependent on %,(t), convergence can be obtained if the duration of the synaptic inputs being active is bounded. It can be shown that the condition of convergence is bounded by: (14) 170 We can readily see that the adaptation constant c can be chosen according to (14) to ensure convergence for t < T. SIMULATIONS To verify the theoretical analysis of these three adaptive neuronal models based on classical conditioning, these models have been simulated on the mM 3081 mainframe using the FORTRAN language in single precision. Several test scenarios have been designed to compare the analytical predictions with actual simulation results. To verify the conditions for convergence, we will vary the value of the adaptation constant c. The conditioned and unconditioned stimuli were set to unity and the value of c varies between 0.1 to 1.0. For the Sutton-Barto model the simulation given in Fig. 2 shows that convergence is obtained for c < 0.5 as expected from theoretical analysis. For the MRT model, simulation results given in Fig. 3 shows that convergence is obtained for c < 0.7, also as expected from theoretical analysis. The theoretical location at convergence for the Sutton and Barto model is also shown in Figure 2. It is readily seen that the simulation results confirm the theoretical expectations. I .? ,v. . .?. ???. ?. ?. ???. ,./r ???????????????????????? i "'r.al Output I.' , '..,...._....-_--------1: ... 2: 3: 4: s: 6: 1: . c c c c c c c ? 0.1 ? 0.2 ? 0.3 ? 0.4 ?0.5 ? 0.6 ? 0.7 ?~----~--~M----~JI-----.~--~a~--~. Figure 2. 'lou or MuroD&l _tpuu YeT.US Ule . . . .er of 1urat1011& for the Suttoa-Barto ~el witb '1frerent .alues of ~aptat1on CODstant c. 171 ... 1.1 lleuroul Output ., . ........ . ... .. ""1"" ................................. ..... ... . ..... . .. I.' ? ~ ... ?.?? 1: 2: I ?? , I I 1 e - 0.1 e - 0.2 e - 0.3 4: e - 0.4 S: e - 0.5 6: e - 0.6 ~1~?~,~-~o~,7~__~, 3: ... I~,____~____~,____~____ ? . " . a ? Ju.ber of iteratiOGa Figure 3. Plotl of oeuroaal outputl .craus the uuaber of iteratious for the MaT ~el with different .alues of adantatlon I:DDStaut c. To illustrate the rate of convergence, we will plot the trajectory of the deviation in synaptic weights from the optimal values in the logarithmic scale since this error is logarithmic as found earlier. The slope of the line yields the rate of convergence. The trajectory for the Sutton-Barto Model is given in Figure 4 while that for the MRT model is given in Figure 5. It is clear from Figure 4 that the trajectory in the logarithmic form is a straight line. The slope Rn(A(S-B)) can readily be calculated. The curve for the MRT model given in Figure 5 is also a straight line but with a much larger slope showing faster convergence. SUMMARY In this paper, we have sought to discover analytically the convergence behavior of three adaptive neuronal models. From the analysis, we see that the Hebb model does not converge at all. With constant active inputs, the output will grow exponentially. In spite of this lack of convergence the Hebb model is still a workable model realizing that the divergent behavior would be curtailed by the sigmoidal transformation to yield realistic outputs. The 172 ,._) 'II \'.~ .... I t "uroul Output Dniatiotl Lto 1 I 2: 3: 4: \\\~ " '---'\ \ \ \ \\ I .. e -.0.1 C - 0.2 e ? 0.3 e - 0.4 1: \ \ '\ \ \ \ II ',,-- " . ? .. " ? .u.ber of iterationa Figure 4. Trajectories of Deuronal output deviationa froa atatic .alues for the Sutton-"rt~ ~el with ~lfferent value. ~f adaptation cOIIstallt C. I.- 80 .. lleuroD&l. Output Deviation 1: 2: 3: 4: ~ \.\ (\ \ \ "' 0.1 0.2 c ? 0.3 C . 0.4 C? C? \\ \ .' \\ \ ,\ \\ ... "" Ltl ! ~ 'I \ \ \ \: , , ~ \ \ \ \ '\ \ ."~ '. i \ ~ \ i , ..) \ \ , " n .. .., '" Nuaber of iterations Figure 5. Trajectories of neuronal output deviations fra. atatic values for tbe KRT ~el witb different values of adaptation constant c. 173 analysis on the Sutton and Barto model shows that this model will converge when the adaptation constant c is carefully chosen. The bounds for c is also found for this model. Due to the structure of this model, both the location at convergence and the rate of convergence are also found. We have also introduced a new model of neuronal plasticity called the most recent trace (MRT) model. Certain similarities exist between the MRT model and the Sutton-Barto model and also between the MRT model and the Klopf model. Analysis shows that the update equations for the synaptic weights are quadratic resulting in polynomial rate of convergence. Simulation results also show that much faster convergence rate can be obtained with the MRT model. REFERENCES 1. Sutton, R.S. and A.G. Barto, Psychological Review, vol. 88, p. 135, (1981). 2. Hageman, L. A. and D.M. Young. Applied Interactive Methods. (Academic Press, Inc. 1981). 3. Omidvar, Massoud. Analysis of Neuronal Plasticity. Doctoral dissertation, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Oklahoma, 1987. 4. Klopf, A.H. Proceedings of the American Institute of Physics Conference #151 on Neural Networks for Computing, p. 265-270, (1986).
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English Alphabet Recognition with Telephone Speech Mark Fanty, Ronald A. Cole and Krist Roginski Center for Spoken Language Understanding Oregon Graduate Institute of Science and Technology 19600 N.W. Von Neumann Dr., Beaverton, OR 97006 Abstract A recognition system is reported which recognizes names spelled over the telephone with brief pauses between letters. The system uses separate neural networks to locate segment boundaries and classify letters. The letter scores are then used to search a database of names to find the best scoring name. The speaker-independent classification rate for spoken letters is 89%. The system retrieves the correct name, spelled with pauses between letters, 91 % of the time from a database of 50,000 names. 1 INTRODUCTION The English alphabet is difficult to recognize automatically because many letters sound alike; e.g., BID, PIT, VIZ and F IS. When spoken over the telephone, the information needed to discriminate among several of these pairs, such as F IS, PIT, BID and VIZ, is further reduced due to the limited bandwidth of the channel Speaker-independent recognition of spelled names over the telephone is difficult due to variability caused by channel distortions, different handsets, and a variety of background noises. Finally, when dealing with a large population of speakers, dialect and foreign accents alter letter pronunciations. An R from a Boston speaker may not contain an [r]. Human classification performance on telephone speech underscores the difficulty of the problem. We presented each of ten listeners with 3,197 spoken letters in random order for identification. The letters were taken from 100 telephone calls 199 200 Fanty, Cole, and Roginski in which the English alphabet was recited with pauses between letters, and 100 different telephone calls with first or last names spelled with pauses between letters. Our subjects averaged 93% correct classification of the letters, with performance ranging from 90% to 95%. This compares to error rates of about 1% for high quality microphone speech [DALY 87]. Over the past three years, our group at OGI has produced a series of letter classification and name retrieval systems. These systems combine speech knowledge and neural network classification to achieve accurate spoken letter recognition [COLE 90, FANTY 91]. Our initial work focused on speaker-independent recognition of isolated letters using high quality microphone speech. By accurately locating segment boundaries and carefully designing feature measurements to discriminate among letters, we achieved 96% classification of letters. We extended isolated letter recognition to recognition of words spelled with brief pauses between the letters, again using high quality speech [FANTY 91, COLE 91]. This task is more difficult than recognition of isolated letters because there are "pauses" within letters , such as the closures in "X" " "H" and "W " which must be distinguished from the pauses that separate letters, and because speakers do not always pause between letters when asked to do so. In the system, a neural network segments speech into a sequence of broad phonetic categories. Rules are applied to the segmentation to locate letter boundaries, and the hypothesized letters are re-classified using a second neural network . The letter scores from this network are used to retrieve the best scoring name from a database of 50,000 last names. First choice name retrieval was 95.3%, with 99% of the spelled names in the top three choices. Letter recognition accuracy was 90%. During the past year, with support from US WEST Advanced Technologies, we have extended our approach to recognition of names spelled over the telephone . This report describes the recognition system, some experiments that motivated its design, and its current performance . 1.1 SYSTEM OVERVIEW Data Capture and Signal Processing. Telephone speech is sampled at 8 kHz at 14-bit resolution. Signal processing routines perform a seventh order PLP (Perceptual Linear Predictive) analysis [HERMANSKY 90] every 3 msec using a 10 msec window. This analysis yields eight coefficients per frame, including energy. Phonetic Classification. Frame-based phonetic classification provides a sequence of phonetic labels that can be used to locate and classify letters. Classification is performed by a fully-connected three-layer feed-forward network that assigns 22 phonetic category scores to each 3 msec time frame. The 22 labels provide an intermediate level of description, in which some phonetic categories, such as [b]-[d], [p]-[t]-[k] and [m]-[n] are combined; these fine phonetic distinctions are performed during letter classification, described below. The input to the network consists of 120 features representing PLP coefficients in a 432 msec window centered on the frame to be classified. The frame-by-frame outputs of the phonetic classifier are converted to a sequence of phonetic segments corresponding to a sequence of hypothesized letters. This is English Alphabet Recognition with Telephone Speech done with a Viterbi search that uses duration and phoneme sequence constraints provided by letter models. For example, the letter model for MN consists of optional glottalization (MN-q), followed by the vowel [eh] (MN-eh), followed by the nasal murmur (MN-mn). Because background noise is often classified as [f]-[s) or [m]-[n), a noise "letter" model was added which consists of either of these phonemes. Letter Classification. Once letter segmentation is performed, a set of 178 features is computed for each letter and used by a fully-connected feed-forward network with one hidden layer to reclassify the letter. Feature measurements are based on the phonetic boundaries provided by the segmentation. At present, the features consist of segment durations, PLP coefficients for thirds of the consonant (fricative or stop) before the first sonorant, PLP for sevenths of the first sonorant, PLP for the 200 msecs after the sonorant, PLP slices 6 and 10 msec after the sonorant onset, PLP slices 6 and 30 msec before any internal sonorant boundary (e.g. [eh]/[m)), zero crossing and amplitude profiles from 180 msec before the sonorant to 180 msec after the sonorant. The outputs of the classifier are the 26 letters plus the category "not a letter." Name Retrieval. The output of the classifier is a score between 0 and 1 for each letter. These scores are treated as probabilities and the most likely name is retrieved from the database of 50,000 last names. The database is stored in an efficient tree structure. Letter deletions and insertions are allowed with a penalty. 2 2.1 SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT DATA COLLECTION Callers were solicited through local newspaper and television coverage, and notices on computer bulletin boards and news groups. Callers had the choice of using a local phone number or toll-free 800-number. A Gradient Technology Desklab attached to a UNIX workstation was programmed to answer the phone and record the answers to pre-recorded questions. The first three thousand callers were given the following instructions, designed to generate spoken and spelled names, city names, and yes/no responses: (1) What city are you calling from? (2) What is your last name? (3) Please spell your last name. (4) Please spell your last name with short pauses between letters. (5) Does your last name contain the letter "A" as in apple? (6) What is your first name? (7) Please spell your first name with short pauses between letters. (8) What city and state did you grow up in? (9) Would you like to receive more information about the results of this project? In order to achieve sufficient coverage of rare letters, the final 1000 speakers were asked to recite the entire English alphabet with brief pauses between letters. The system described here was trained on 800 speakers and tested on 400 speakers. The training set contains 400 English alphabets and 800 first and last names spelled with pauses between letters. The test set consists of 100 alphabets and 300 last names spelled with pauses between letters. 201 202 Fanty, Cole, and Roginski A subset of the data was phonetically labeled to train and evaluate the neural network segmenter. Time-aligned phonetic labels were assigned to 300 first and last names and 100 alphabets, using the following labels: cl bcl dcl kcl pcl tcl q aa ax: ay b ch d ah eh ey f iy jh kim n ow p r s t uw v w y z h#. This label set represents a subset of the TIMIT [LAMEL 86] labels sufficient to describe the English alphabet. 2.2 FRAME-BASED CLASSIFICATION Explicit location of segment boundaries is an important feature of our approach. Consider, for example, the letters Band D. They are distinguished by information at the onset of the letter; the spectrum of the release burst of [b] and [d], and the formant transitions during the first 10 or 15 msec of the vowel [iy]. By precisely locating the burst onset and vowel onset, feature measurements can be designed to optimize discrimination. Moreover, the duration of the initial consonant segment can be used to discriminate B from P, and D from T. A large number of experiments were performed to improve segmentation accuracy. [ROGINSKI 91]. These experiments focused on (a) determining the appropriate set of phonetic categories, (b) determining the set of features that yield the most accurate classification of these categories, and (c) determining the best strategy for sampling speech frames within the phonetic categories. Phonetic Categories. Given our recognition strategy of first locating segment boundaries and then classifying letters, it makes little sense to attempt to discriminate [b]-[d], [p]-[t]-[k] or [m]-[n] at this stage. Experiments confirmed that using the complete set of phonetic categories found in the English alphabet did not produce the most accurate frame-based phonetic classification. The actual choice of categories was guided initially by perceptual confusions in the listening experiment, and was refined through a series of experiments in which different combinations of acoustically similar categories were merged. Features Used for Classification. A series of experiments was performed which covaried the amount of acoustic context provided to the network and the number of hidden units in the network. The results are shown in Figure 1. A network with 432 msec of spectral information, centered on the frame to be classified, and 40 hidden units was chosen as the best compromise. Sampling of Speech Frames. The training and test sets contained about 1.7 million 3 msec frames of speech; too many to train on all of them The manner in which speech frames were sampled was found to have a large effect of performance. It was necessary to sample more speech frames from less frequently occurring categories and those with short durations (e.g., [b]). The location within segments of the speech frames selected was found to have a profound effect on the accuracy of boundary location. Accurate boundary placement required the correct proportion of speech frames sampled near segment boundaries. For example, in order to achieve accurate location of stop bursts, it was necessary to sample a high proportion of speech frames just prior to the burst (within the English Alphabet Recognition with Telephone Speech 60 hidden nodes 40 hidden nodes 20 hidden nodes g i j c: 0 ~t:: 8 c ~III ~ a... o 100 200 300 400 500 600 Context window in milliseconds Figure 1: Performance of the phonetic classifier as a function of PLP context and number of hidden units. 203 204 Fanty, Cole, and Roginski closure category). Figure 2 shows the improvement in the placement of the [b]j[iy] boundary after sampling more training frames near that boundary. 2.3 LETTER CLASSIFICATION In order to avoid segmenting training data for letter classification by hand, an automatic procedure was used. Each utterance was listened to and the letter names were transcribed manually. Segmentation was performed as described above, except the Viterbi search was forced to match the transcribed letter sequence. This resulted in very accurate segmentation. One concern with this procedure was that artificially good segmentation for the training data could hurt performance on the test set, where there are bound to be more segmentation errors (since the letter sequence is not known). The letter classifier should be able to recover from segmentation errors (e.g. a B being segmented as V with a long [v] before the burst). To do so, the network must be trained with errorful segmentation. The solution is to perform two segmentations. The forced segmentation finds the letter boundaries so the correct identity is known. A second, unforced, segmentation is performed and these phonetic boundaries are used to generate features used to train the classifier. Any "letters" found by the unforced search which correspond to noise or silence from the forced search are used as training data for the "not a letter" category. So there are two ways noise can be eliminated: It can match the noise model of the segmenter during the Viterbi search, or it can match a letter during segmentation, but be reclassified as "not a letter" by the letter classifier. Both are necessary in the current system. 3 PERFORMANCE Frame-Based Phonetic Classification. The phonetic classifier was trained on selected speech frames from 200 speakers. About 450 speech frames were selected from 50 different occurrences of each phonetic category. Phonetic segmentation performance on 50 alphabets and 150 last names was evaluated by comparing the first-choice of the classifier at each time frame to the label provided by a human expert. The frame-by-frame agreement was 80% before the Viterbi search and 90% after the Viterbi search. Letter Classification and N arne Retrieval. The training set consists of 400 alphabets spelled by 400 callers plus first and last names spelled by 400 callers, all with pauses between the letters. When tested on 100 alphabets from new speakers, the letter classification was 89% with less than 1% insertions. When tested on 300 last names from new speakers, the letter classification was 87% with 1.5% insertions. For the 300 callers spelling their last name, 90.7% of the names were correctly retrieved from a list of 50,000 common last names. 95.7% of the names were in the English Alphabet Recognition with Telephone Speech fI) Q) (,) ~ Q) '- ~ (,) (,) 0 T"" 0 0 '- Q) J:J LO E ~ z o <= -87-6-5-4-3-2-1 0 1 234 5 6 7>= 8 Offset from hand labels LO T"" fI) Q) (,) ~ Q) '- ~ 0 T"" (,) (,) 0 0 'Q) J:J LO E ~ z o <= -87-6-5-4-3-2-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7>= 8 Offset from hand labels Figure 2: Test set improvement in the placement of the [b]j[iy] boundary after sampling more training frames near that boundary. The top histogram shows the difference between hand-labeled boundaries and the system's boundaries in 3 msec frames before adding extra boundary frames. The bottom histogram shows the difference after adding the boundary frames. 205 206 Fanry, Cole, and Roginski top three. 4 DISCUSSION The recognition system described in this paper classifies letters of the English alphabet produced by any speaker over telephone lines at 89% accuracy for spelled alphabets and retrieves names from a list of 50,000 with 91 % first choice accuracy. The system has a number of characteristic features. We represent speech using an auditory model-Perceptual Linear Predictive (PLP) analysis. We perform explicit segmentation of the speech signal into phonetic categories. Explicit segmentation allows us to use segment durations to discriminate letters, and to extract features from specific regions of the signal. Finally, speech knowledge is used to design a set of features that work best for English letters. We are currently analyzing errors made by our system. The great advantage of our approach is that individual errors can be analyzed, and individual features can be added to improve performance. Acknowledgements Research supported by US WEST Advanced Technologies, APPLE Computer Inc., NSF, ONR, Digital Equipment Corporation and Oregon Advanced Computing Institute. References [COLE 91] R. A. Cole, M. Fanty, M. Gopalakrishnan, and R. D. T. Janssen. Speaker-independent name retrieval from spellings using a database of 50,000 names. In Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing, 1991. [COLE 90] R. A. Cole, M. Fanty, Y. Muthusamy, and M. Gopalakrishnan. Speakerindependent recognition of spoken English letters. In Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, San Diego, CA, 1990. [DALY 87] N. Daly. Recognition of words from their spellings: Integration of multiple knowledge sources. Master's thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, May, 1987. [FANTY 91] M. Fanty and R. A. Cole. Spoken letter recognition. In R. P. Lippman, J. Moody, and D. S. Touretzky, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 3. San Mateo, CA: Morgan Kaufmann, 1991. [HERMANSKY 90] H. Hermansky. Perceptual Linear Predictive (PLP) analysis of speech. J. Acoust. Soc. Am., 87(4):1738-1752, 1990. [LAMEL 86] L. Lamel, R. Kassel, and S. Seneff. Speech database development: Design and analysis of the acoustic-phonetic corpus. In Proceedings of the DARPA Speech Recognition Workshop, pages 100-110, 1986. [ROGINSKI 91] Krist Roginski. A neural network phonetic classifier for telephone spoken letter recognition. Master's thesis, Oregon Graduate Institute, 1991. PART IV LANGUAGE
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Positive Curvature and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Simon Rubinstein-Salzedo? Susan Holmes Department of Statistics Stanford University {cseiler,simonr}@stanford.edu, susan@stat.stanford.edu Christof Seiler Abstract The Jacobi metric introduced in mathematical physics can be used to analyze Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). In a geometrical setting, each step of HMC corresponds to a geodesic on a Riemannian manifold with a Jacobi metric. Our calculation of the sectional curvature of this HMC manifold allows us to see that it is positive in cases such as sampling from a high dimensional multivariate Gaussian. We show that positive curvature can be used to prove theoretical concentration results for HMC Markov chains. 1 Introduction In many important applications, we are faced with the problem of sampling from high dimensional probability measures [19]. For example, in computational anatomy [8], the goal is to estimate deformations between patient anatomies observed from medical images (e.g. CT and MRI). These deformations are then analyzed for geometric differences between patient groups, for instance in cases where one group of patients has a certain disease, and the other group are healthy. The anatomical deformations of interest have very high effective dimensionality. Each voxel of the image has essentially three degrees of freedom, although prior knowledge about spatial smoothness helps regularize the estimation problem and narrow down the effective degrees of freedom. Recently, several authors formulated Bayesian approaches for this type of inverse problem [1, 2, 4], turning computational anatomy into a high dimensional sampling problem. Most high dimensional sampling problems have intractable normalizing constants. Therefore to draw multiple samples we have to resort to general Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. Many such algorithms scale poorly with the number of dimensions. One exception is Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). For example, in computational anatomy, various authors [22, 23] have used HMC to sample anatomical deformations efficiently. Unfortunately, the theoretical aspects of HMC are largely unexplored, although some recent work addresses the important question of how to choose the numerical parameters in HMC optimally [3, 7]. 1.1 Main Result In this paper, we present a theoretical analysis of HMC. As a first step toward a full theoretical analysis of HMC in the context of computational anatomy [22, 23], we focus our attention on the numerical calculation of the expectation Z I= f (q) ?(dq) (1.1) Rd ? The first and second authors made equal contributions and should be considered co-first authors. 1 by drawing samples (X1 , X2 , . . . ) from ? using HMC, and then approximating the integral by the sample mean of the chain: T0 +T 1 X Ib = f (Xk ). (1.2) T k=T0 +1 Here, T0 is the burn-in time, a certain number of steps taken in the chain that we discard due to the influence of the starting state, and T is the running time, the number of steps in the chain that we need to take to obtain a representative sample of the actual measure. Our main result quantifies how large T must be in order to obtain a good approximation to the above stated integral through its sample mean (V 2 will be defined in ?3, and ? in the next paragraph): b ? rkf kLip ) ? 2e?r2 /(16V 2 (?,T )) . P(|I ? I| The most interesting part of this result is the use of coarse Ricci curvature ?. Following on ideas from Sturm [20, 21], Ollivier introduced ? to quantify the curvature of a Markov chain [16]. Joulin and Ollivier [12] used this concept of curvature to calculate new error bounds and concentration inequalities for a wide range of MCMC algorithms. Their work links MCMC to Riemannian geometry; this link is our main tool for analyzing HMC. Our key idea is to recast the analysis of HMC as a problem in Riemannian geometry by using the Jacobi metric. In high dimensional settings, we are able to make simplifications that allow us to calculate distributions of curvatures on the Riemannian manifold associated to HMC. This distribution is then used to calculate ? and thus concentration inequalities. Our results hold in high dimensions (large d) and for Markov chains with positive curvature. The Jacobi metric connects seemingly different problems and enables us to transform a sampling problem into a geometrical problem. It has been known since Jacobi [10] that Hamiltonian flows correspond to geodesics on certain Riemannian manifolds. The Jacobi metric has been successfully used in the study of phase transitions in physics; for a book-length account see [17]. In probability and statistics, the Jacobi metric has been mentioned in the rejoinder of [7] as an area of research promise. The Jacobi metric enables us to distort space according to a probability distribution. This idea is familiar to statisticians in the simple case of using the inverse cumulative distribution function to distort uniformly spaced points into points from another distribution. When we want to sample y ? R from a distribution with cumulative distribution function F we can pick a uniform random number x ? [0, 1] and let y be the largest number so that F (y) ? x. Here we are shrinking the regions of low density so that they are less likely to be selected. 1.2 Structure of the Paper After introducing basic concepts from Riemannian geometry, we recast HMC into the Riemmanian setting, i.e. as geodesics on Riemannian manifolds (?2). This provides the necessary language to state and prove that HMC has positive sectional curvature in high dimensions, in certain settings. We then state the main concentration inequality from [12] (?3). Finally, we show how this concentration inequality can be applied to quantify running times of HMC for the multivariate Gaussian in 100 dimensions (?4). 2 2.1 Sectional Curvature of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Riemannian Manifolds We now introduce some basic differential and Riemannian geometry that is useful in describing HMC; we will leave the more subtle points about curvature of manifolds and probability measures for ?2.3. This apparatus will allow us to interpret solutions to Hamiltonian equations as geodesic flows on Riemannian manifolds. We sketch this approach out briefly here, avoiding generality and precision, but we invite the interested reader to consult [5] or a similar reference for a more thorough exposition. 2 Definition 2.1. Let X be a d-dimensional manifold, and let x ? X be a point. Then the tangent space Tx X consists of all ? 0 (0), where ? : (??, ?) ? X is a smooth curve and F ?(0) = x. The tangent bundle T X of X is the manifold whose underlying set is the disjoint union x?X Tx X . Remark 2.2. This definition does not tell us how to stitch Tx X and T X into manifolds. The details of that construction can be found in any introductory book on differential geometry. It suffices to note that Tx X is a vector space of dimension d, and T X is a manifold of dimension 2d. Definition 2.3. A Riemannian manifold is a pair (X , h?, ?i), where X is a manifold and h?, ?i is a smoothly varying positive definite bilinear form on the tangent space Tx X , for each x ? X . We call h?, ?i the (Riemannian) metric. The Riemannian metric allows one to measure distances between two points on X . We define the length of a curve ? : [a, b] ? X to be Z b h? 0 (t), ? 0 (t)i dt, L(?) = a and the distance ?(x, y) to be ?(x, y) = inf L(?). ?(0)=x ?(1)=y A geodesic on a Riemannian manifold is a curve ? : [a, b] ? X that locally minimizes distance, in the sense that if ? e : [a, b] ? X is another path with ? e(a) = ?(a) and ? e(b) = ?(b) with ? e(t) and ?(t) sufficiently close together for each t ? [a, b], then L(?) ? L(e ? ). Example. On Rd with the standard metric, geodesics are exactly the line segments, since the shortest path between two points is along a straight line. In this article, we are primarily concerned with the case of X diffeomorphic to Rd . However, it will be essential to think in terms of Riemannian manifolds, for our metric on X will vary from the standard metric. In ?2.3, we will see how to choose a metric, the Jacobi metric, that is tailored to a non-uniform probability distribution ? on X . 2.2 Hamiltonian Monte Carlo In order to resolve some of the issues with the standard versions of MCMC related to slow mixing times, we draw inspiration from ideas in physics. We mimic the movement of a body under potential and kinetic energy changes to avoid diffusive behavior. The stationary probability will be linked to the potential energy. The reader is invited to read [15] for an elegant survey of the subject. The setup is as follows: let X be a manifold, and let ? be a target distribution on X . As with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, we start at some point q0 ? X . However, we use an analogue of the laws of physics to tell us where to go for future steps. To simplify our exposition, we assume that X = Rd . This is not strictly necessary, but all distributions we consider will be on Rd . In what follows, we let (qn , pn ) be the position and momentum after n steps of the walk. To run Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, we must first choose functions V : X ? R and K : T X ? R, and we let H(q, p) = V (q) + K(q, p). We start at a point q0 ? X . Now, supposing we have qn , the position at step n, we sample pn from a N (0, Id ) distribution. We solve the differential equations dq ?H = , dt ?p dp ?H =? dt ?q (2.1) with initial conditions p(0) = pn and q(0) = qn , and we let qn+1 = q(1). In order to make the stationary distribution of the qn ?s be ?, we choose V and K following Neal in [15]; we take D V (q) = ? log ?(q) + C, K(p) = kpk2 , (2.2) 2 where C and D > 0 are convenient constants. Note that V only depends on q and K only depends on p. V is larger when ? is smaller, and so trajectories are able to move more quickly starting from lower density regions than out of higher density regions. 3 2.3 Curvature Not all probability distributions can be efficiently sampled. In particular, high-dimensional distributions such as the uniform distribution on the cube [0, 1]d are especially susceptible to sampling difficulties due to the curse of dimensionality, where in some cases it is necessary to take exponentially many (in the dimension of the space) sample points in order to obtain a satisfactory estimate. (See [13] for a discussion of the problems with integration on high-dimensional boxes and some ideas for tackling them when we have additional information about the function.) However, numerical integration on high-dimensional spheres is not as difficult. The reason is that the sphere exhibits concentration of measure, so that the bulk of the surface area of the sphere lies in a small ribbon around the equator (see [14, ?III.I.6]). As a result, we can obtain a good estimate of an integral on a high-dimensional sphere by taking many sample points around the equator, and only a few sample points far from the equator. Indeed, a polynomial number (in the dimension and the error bound) of points will suffice. The difference between the cube and sphere, in this instance, is that the sphere has positive curvature, whereas the cube has zero curvature. Spaces of positive curvature are amenable to efficient numerical integration. However, it is not just a space that can have positive (or otherwise) curvature. As we shall see, we can associate a notion of curvature to a Markov chain, an idea introduced by Ollivier [16] and Joulin [11] following work of Sturm [20, 21]. In this case as well, we will be able to perform numerical integration, using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, in the case of stationary distributions of Markov chains with positive curvature. Furthermore, in ?3, we will be able to provide error bounds for the integrals in question. In order to make the geometry and the probability measure interdependent, we will deform our space to take the probability distribution into account, in a manner reminiscent of the inverse transform method mentioned in the introduction. Formally, this amounts to putting a suitable Riemannian metric on our state space X . From now on, we shall assume that X is a manifold; in fact, it will generally suffice to let it be Rd . Nonetheless, even in the case of Rd , the extra Riemannian metric is important since it is not the standard Euclidean one. Given a probability distribution ? on Rd , we now define a metric on Rd that is tailored to ? and the Hamiltonian it induces (see ?2.2). This construction is originally due to Jacobi, but our treatment follows Pin in [18]. Definition 2.4. Let (X , h?, ?i) be a Riemannian manifold, and let ? be a probability distribution on X . Let V be the potential energy function associated to ? by (2.2). For h ? R, we define the Jacobi metric to be gh (?, ?) = 2(h ? V )h?, ?i. Remark 2.5. (X , gh ) is not necessarily a Riemannian manifold, since gh will not be positive definite if h ? V is ever nonpositive. We could remedy this situation by restricting to the subset of X on which h ? V > 0. However, this will not be problematical for us, as we will always select values of h for which h ? V > 0. The reason for using the Jacobi metric is the following result of Jacobi, following Maupertuis: Theorem 2.6 (Jacobi-Maupertuis Principle, [10]). Trajectories q(t) of the Hamiltonian equations 2.1 with total energy h are geodesics of X with the Jacobi metric gh . The most convenient way for us to think about the Jacobi metric on X is as a distortion of space to suit the probability measure. In order to do this, we make regions of high density larger, and we make regions of low density smaller. However, the Jacobi metric does not completely override the old notion of distance and scale; the Jacobi metric provides a compromise between physical distance and density of the probability measure. As we run Hamiltonian Monte Carlo as described in ?2.2, h changes at every step, as we let h = V (qn ) + K(pn ). That is, we actually vary the metric structure as we run the chain, or, alternatively, move between different Riemannian manifolds. In practice, however, we prefer to think of the chain as running on a single manifold, with a changing structure. 4 We will not give all the relevant definitions of curvature, only a few facts that provide some useful intuition. We will need the notion of sectional curvature in the plane spanned by u and v. Let X be a ddimensional Riemannian manifold, and x, y ? X two distinct points. Let v ? Tx X , v 0 ? Ty X be two tangent vector at x and y that are related to each other by parallel transport along the geodesic in the direction of u. Let ? be the length of the geodesic between x and y, and ? the length of v (or v 0 ). Let ? be the length of the geodesic between the two endpoints starting at x shooting in direction ?v, and y in direction ?v 0 . Then the sectional curvature Secx (u, v) at point x is given by   ?2 3 2 ?=? 1? Secx (u, v) + O(? + ? ?) as (?, ?) ? 0. 2 See Figure 3 in our long paper [9] for a pictorial representation. We let Inf Sec denote the infimum of Secx (u, v), where x runs over X and u, v run over all pairs of linearly independent tangent vectors at x. Remark 2.7. In practice, it may not be easy to compute Inf Sec precisely. As a result, we can approximate it by running a suitable Markov chain on the collection of pairs of linearly independent tangent vectors of X ; say we reach states (x1 , u1 , v1 ), (x2 , u2 , v2 ), . . . , (xt , ut , vt ). Then we can approximate Inf Sec by the empirical infimum of the sectional curvatures inf 1?i?t Secxi (ui , vi ). This approach has computational benefits, but also theoretical benefits: it allows us to ignore low sectional curvatures that are unlikely to arise in practice. Note that Sec depends on the metric. There is a formula, due to Pin [18], connecting the sectional curvature of a Riemannian manifold equipped with some reference metric, with that of the Jacobi metric. We write down an expression for the sectional curvature in the special case where the reference metric on X is the standard Euclidean metric and u and v are orthonormal tangent vectors at a point x ? X :  h i 1 Secx (u, v) = 2(h ? V ) h(Hess V )u, ui + h(Hess V )v, vi 8(h ? V )3 h i  + 3 k grad V k2 cos2 (?) + k grad V k2 cos2 (?) ? k grad V k2 . (2.3) Here, ? is defined as the angle between grad V and u, and ? as the angle between grad V and v, in the standard Euclidean metric. There is also a notion of curvature, known as coarse Ricci curvature for Markov chains [16]. (There is also a notion of Ricci curvature for Riemannian manifolds, but we do not use it in this article.) If P is the transition kernel for a Markov chain on a metric space (X , ?), let Px denote the transition probabilities starting from state x. We define the coarse Ricci curvature ?(x, y) as the W1 Wasserstein distance between two probability measures by W1 (Px , Py ) = (1 ? ?(x, y))?(x, y). We write ? for inf x,y?X ?(x, y). We sometimes write ? for an empirical infimum, as in Remark 2.7. 3 Concentration Inequality for General MCMC We now state Joulin and Ollivier?s [12] concentration inequalities for general MCMC. This will provide the link between geometry and MCMC that we will need for our concentration inequality for HMC. Definition 3.1. ? The Lipschitz norm of a function f : (X , ?) ? R is |f (x) ? f (y)| . kf kLip := sup ?(x, y) x,y?X If kf kLip ? C, we say that f is C-Lipschitz. ? The coarse diffusion constant of a Markov chain on a metric space (X , ?) with kernel P at a state q ? X is the quantity ZZ 1 ?(x, y)2 Pq (dx) Pq (dy). ?(q)2 := 2 X ?X 5 ? The local dimension nq is RR nq := inf f :X ?R f 1-Lipschitz X ?X RR X ?X ?(x, y)2 Pq (dx) Pq (dy) |f (x) ? f (y)|2 Pq (dx) Pq (dy) . ? The eccentricity E(q) at a point q ? X is defined to be Z E(q) = ?(x, y) ?(dy). X Theorem 3.2 ([12]). If f : X ? R is a Lipschitz function, then |Eq Ib ? I| ? (1 ? ?)T0 +1 E(q)kf kLip . ?T Theorem 3.3 ([12]). Let 1 V (?, T ) = ?T 2  T0 1+ T  sup q?X ?(x)2 . nq ? Then, assuming that the diameters of the Pq ?s are unbounded, we have b ? rkf kLip ) ? 2e?r2 /(16V 2 (?,T )) . Pq (|Ib ? Eq I| Joulin and Ollivier [12] work with metric state spaces that have positive curvature. In contrast, in the next section, we work with Euclidean state spaces. We show that HMC transforms Euclidean state space into a state space with positive curvature. In HMC, curvature does not originate from the state space but from the measure ?. The measure ? acts on the state space according to the rules of HMC; one can think of a distortion of the underlying state space, similar to the transform inverse sampling for one dimensional continuous distributions. 4 Concentration Inequality for HMC In this section, we apply Theorem 3.3 for sampling from multivariate Gaussian distributions using HMC. For a book-length introduction to sampling from multivariate Gaussians, see [6]. We begin with a theoretical discussion, and then we present some simulation results. As we shall see, these distributions have positive curvature in high dimensions. Lemma 4.1. Let C be a universal constant and ? be the d-dimensional multivariate Gaussian N (0, ?), where ? is a (d ? d) covariance matrix, all of whose eigenvalues lie in the range [1/C, C]. We denote by ? = ??1 the precision matrix. Let q be distributed according to ?, and p according to a Gaussian N (0, Id ). Further, h = V (q) + K(q, p) is the sum of the potential and the kinetic energy. The Euclidean state space X is equipped with the Jacobi metric gh . Pick two orthonormal tangent vectors u, v in the tangent space Tq X at point q. Then the sectional curvature Sec from expression (2.3) is a random variable bounded from below with probability P(d2 Sec ? K1 ) ? 1 ? K2 e?K3 ? d . K1 , K2 , and K3 are positive constants that depend on C. We note that the terms in (2.3) involving cosines can be left out since they are always positive and small. The other three terms can be written as three quadratic forms in standard Gaussian random vectors. We then calculate tail inequalities for all these terms using Chernoff-type bounds. We also work out the constants K1 , K2 , and K3 explicitly. For a detailed proof see our long paper [9]. There is a close connection between ? and Sec of X equipped with the Jacobi metric: for Gaussians with assumptions as in Lemma 4.1, we have Sec ?? . 6d as d ? ?. We give the derivation in our long paper [9]. Now we can insert ? into Theorem 3.3 and compute our concentration inequality for HMC. For details on how to calculate the coarse diffusion constant ?(q)2 , the local dimension nq , and the eccentricity E(q), see our long paper [9]. 6 Sectional curvatures in higher dimensions Frequency 0 ?1.0 expectation E(Sec) sample mean 20000 40000 60000 80000 ?0.5 0.0 Histogram of sectional curvatures (d = 10) ?1.5 minimum sample mean ?3 14 18 22 26 30 34 38 42 46 ?2 ?1 0 1 2 3 4 50 Number of dimensions Histogram of sectional curvatures (d = 1000) expectation E(Sec) sample mean 0 0 50000 150000 40000 Frequency 60000 expectation E(Sec) sample mean 20000 Frequency 250000 Histogram of sectional curvatures (d = 100) 0.00005 0.00015 0.00025 8.0e?07 0.00035 1.0e?06 1.2e?06 1.4e?06 Figure 1: Top left: Minimum and sample average of sectional curvatures for 14- to 50-dimensional multivariate Gaussian ? with identity covariance. For each dimension we run a HMC random walk with T = 104 steps. The other three plots: HMC after T = 104 steps for multivariate Gaussian ? with identity covariance in d = 10, 100, 1000 dimensions. At each step we compute the sectional curvature for d uniformly sampled orthonormal 2-frames in Rd . Remark 4.2. The coarse curvature ? only depends on ?. However, in practice we compute ? empirically by running several steps of the chain as discussed in Remark 2.7, making ? depend on x and T0 . Thus, we typically assume T0 to be known in advance in some other way. Example (Distribution of sectional curvature). We run a HMC Markov chain to sample a multivariate Gaussian ?. Figure 1 shows how the minimum and sample mean of sectional curvatures during the HMC random walk tend closer with dimensionality, and around dimension 30 we cannot distinguish them visually anymore. The minimum sectional curvatures are stable with small fluctuations. The actual sample distributions are shown in three separate plots (Figure 1) for 10, 100 and 1000 dimensions. These plots suggest that the sample distributions of sectional curvatures tend to a Gaussian distribution with smaller variances as dimensionality increases. Example (Running time estimate). Now we give a concentration inequality simulation for sampling from a 100-dimensional multivariate Gaussian with with Gaussian decay between the absolute distance squared of the variable indices ? ? N (0, exp(?|i ? j|2 )) and the following parameters 7 Concentration inequality 2.0 HMC sample means ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ? ??? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ???? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ??? ? ? ????? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ??? ? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ??? ? ???? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ? ?? ??? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ? ??? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ??? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ?? ? ??? ? ???? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ???? ??? ? ?? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ???? ??? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ??? ?? ? ? ?? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ??? ? ?? ??? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ?? ??? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ???? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ?? ??? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ????? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ??????? ? ? ?? ???? ? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ?? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ???? ?? ???? ?? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ???? ??? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 1.5 ? ? ? ? 0 Concentration ? 0.5 ? ? ? ? error bound ? 200 ? 1.0 ? 0.0 0.02 0.00 ?0.02 ? ? ? ?0.06 ?0.04 Sample mean of coordinate 1 0.04 0.06 ? 400 600 800 1000 ? 10 Simulations 12 14 16 18 ? ? ? ? ? ? 20 ? 22 Running time log(T0+T) Figure 2: (Covariance structure with weak dependencies) Left: Sample means for 1000 simulations for the first coordinate of the 100 dimensional multivariate Gaussian. The red lines indicate the error bound r. Right: Concentration inequality with increasing burn-in and running time. Error bound Markov chain kernel Coarse diffusion constant Lipschitz norm r = 0.05 P ? N (0, I100 ) ? 2 (q) = 100 kf kLip = 0.1 Starting point Coarse Ricci curvature Local dimension Eccentricity q0 = 0 ? = 0.0024 nq = 100 E(0) = 99.75 For calculations of these parameters see our long paper [9]. In Figure 2 on the left, we show 1000 simulations of this HMC chain and for each simulations we plot the sample mean approximation to the integral. The red lines indicated the requested error bound at r = 0.05. From these simulation results, we would expect the right burn-in and running time to be around T + T0 = e10 . In Figure 2 on the right, we see our theoretical concentration inequality as a function of burn-in and running time T + T0 (in logarithmic scale). The probability of making an error above our defined error bound r = 0.05 is close to zero at burn-in time T0 = 0 and running time T = e19 . The discrepancy between the predicted theoretical results and the actual simulations suggest there might be hope for improvements in future work. 5 Conclusion Lemma 2.3 states a probabilistic lower bound. So in rare occasions, we will still observe curvatures below this bound or in very rare occasions even negative curvatures. Even if we had less conservative bounds on the number of simulations steps T0 + T , we could still not completely exclude ?bad? curvatures. For our approach to work, we need to make the explicit assumption that rare ?bad? curvatures have no serious impact on bounds for T0 + T . Intuitively, as HMC can take big steps around the state space towards the gradient of distribution ?, it should be able to recover quickly from ?bad? places. We are now working on quantifying this recovery behavior of HMC more carefully. For a full mathematical development with proofs and more examples on the multivariate t distribution and in computational anatomy see our long paper [9]. Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank Sourav Chatterjee, Otis Chodosh, Persi Diaconis, Emanuel Milman, Veniamin Morgenshtern, Richard Montgomery, Yann Ollivier, Xavier Pennec, Mehrdad Shahshahani, and Aaron Smith for their insight and helpful discussions. This work was supported by a postdoctoral fellowship from the Swiss National Science Foundation and NIH grant R01-GM086884. 8 References [1] St?ephanie Allassonni`ere, J?er?emie Bigot, Joan Alexis Glaun`es, Florian Maire, and Fr?ed?eric J. P. Richard. Statistical models for deformable templates in image and shape analysis. Ann. Math. Blaise Pascal, 20(1):1?35, 2013. [2] St?ephanie Allassonni`ere, Estelle Kuhn, and Alain Trouv?e. Construction of Bayesian deformable models via a stochastic approximation algorithm: a convergence study. Bernoulli, 16(3):641?678, 2010. [3] Alexandros Beskos, Natesh Pillai, Gareth Roberts, Jesus-Maria Sanz-Serna, and Andrew Stuart. Optimal tuning of the hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm. Bernoulli, 19(5A):1501?1534, 2013. [4] Colin John Cotter, Simon L. Cotter, and Franc?ois-Xavier Vialard. Bayesian data assimilation in shape registration. Inverse Problems, 29(4):045011, 21, 2013. [5] Manfredo Perdig?ao do Carmo. Riemannian geometry. Mathematics: Theory & Applications. Birkh?auser Boston, Inc., Boston, MA, 1992. Translated from the second Portuguese edition by Francis Flaherty. [6] Alan Genz and Frank Bretz. Computation of multivariate normal and t probabilities, volume 195 of Lecture Notes in Statistics. Springer, Dordrecht, 2009. [7] Mark Girolami and Ben Calderhead. Riemann manifold Langevin and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Stat. Methodol., 73(2):123?214, 2011. With discussion and a reply by the authors. [8] Ulf Grenander and Michael I. Miller. Computational anatomy: an emerging discipline. Quart. Appl. Math., 56(4):617?694, 1998. Current and future challenges in the applications of mathematics (Providence, RI, 1997). [9] Susan Holmes, Simon Rubinstein-Salzedo, and Christof Seiler. Curvature and concentration of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in high dimensions. preprint arXiv:1407.1114, 2014. [10] Carl Gustav Jacob Jacobi. Jacobi?s lectures on dynamics, volume 51 of Texts and Readings in Mathematics. Hindustan Book Agency, New Delhi, revised edition, 2009. [11] Ald?eric Joulin. Poisson-type deviation inequalities for curved continuous-time Markov chains. Bernoulli, 13(3):782?798, 2007. [12] Ald?eric Joulin and Yann Ollivier. Curvature, concentration and error estimates for Markov chain Monte Carlo. Ann. Probab., 38(6):2418?2442, 2010. [13] Frances Y. Kuo and Ian H. Sloan. Lifting the curse of dimensionality. Notices Amer. Math. Soc., 52(11):1320?1329, 2005. [14] Paul L?evy. Lec?ons d?analyse fonctionnelle. Paris, 1922. [15] Radford M. Neal. MCMC using Hamiltonian dynamics. In Handbook of Markov chain Monte Carlo, Chapman & Hall/CRC Handb. Mod. Stat. Methods, pages 113?162. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, 2011. [16] Yann Ollivier. Ricci curvature of Markov chains on metric spaces. J. Funct. Anal., 256(3):810? 864, 2009. [17] Marco Pettini. Geometry and topology in Hamiltonian dynamics and statistical mechanics, volume 33 of Interdisciplinary Applied Mathematics. Springer, New York, 2007. With a foreword by E. G. D. Cohen. [18] Ong Chong Pin. Curvature and mechanics. Advances in Math., 15:269?311, 1975. [19] Andrew M. Stuart. Inverse problems: a Bayesian perspective. Acta Numer., 19:451?559, 2010. [20] Karl-Theodor Sturm. On the geometry of metric measure spaces. I. Acta Math., 196(1):65? 131, 2006. [21] Karl-Theodor Sturm. On the geometry of metric measure spaces. II. Acta Math., 196(1):133? 177, 2006. [22] Koen Van Leemput. Encoding probabilistic brain atlases using Bayesian inference. IEEE Transactions on Medical Imaging, 28(6):822?837, June 2009. [23] Miaomiao Zhang, Nikhil Singh, and P. Thomas Fletcher. Bayesian estimation of regularization and atlas building in diffeomorphic image registration. In IPMI 2013, LNCS, pages 37?48, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2013. Springer-Verlag. 9
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Bayes-Adaptive Simulation-based Search with Value Function Approximation Arthur Guez?,1,2 ? Nicolas Heess2 aguez@google.com 1 David Silver2 Gatsby Unit, UCL 2 Peter Dayan1 Google DeepMind Abstract Bayes-adaptive planning offers a principled solution to the explorationexploitation trade-off under model uncertainty. It finds the optimal policy in belief space, which explicitly accounts for the expected effect on future rewards of reductions in uncertainty. However, the Bayes-adaptive solution is typically intractable in domains with large or continuous state spaces. We present a tractable method for approximating the Bayes-adaptive solution by combining simulationbased search with a novel value function approximation technique that generalises appropriately over belief space. Our method outperforms prior approaches in both discrete bandit tasks and simple continuous navigation and control tasks. 1 Introduction A fundamental problem in sequential decision making is controlling an agent when the environmental dynamics are only partially known. In such circumstances, probabilistic models of the environment are used to capture the uncertainty of current knowledge given past data; they thus imply how exploring the environment can be expected to lead to new, exploitable, information. In the context of Bayesian model-based reinforcement learning (RL), Bayes-adaptive (BA) planning [8] solves the resulting exploration-exploitation trade-off by directly optimizing future expected discounted return in the joint space of states and beliefs about the environment (or, equivalently, interaction histories). Performing such optimization even approximately is computationally highly challenging; however, recent work has demonstrated that online planning by sample-based forwardsearch can be effective [22, 1, 12]. These algorithms estimate the value of future interactions by simulating trajectories while growing a search tree, taking model uncertainty into account. However, one major limitation of Monte Carlo search algorithms in general is that, na??vely applied, they fail to generalize values between related states. In the BA case, a separate value is stored for each distinct path of possible interactions. Thus, the algorithms fail not only to generalize values between related paths, but also to reflect the fact that different histories can correspond to the same belief about the environment. As a result, the number of required simulations grows exponentially with search depth. Worse yet, except in very restricted scenarios, the lack of generalization renders MC search algorithms effectively inapplicable to BAMDPs with continuous state or action spaces. In this paper, we propose a class of efficient simulation-based algorithms for Bayes-adaptive modelbased RL which use function approximation to estimate the value of interaction histories during search. This enables generalization between different beliefs, states, and actions during planning, and therefore also works for continuous state spaces. To our knowledge this is the first broadly applicable MC search algorithm for continuous BAMDPs. Our algorithm builds on the success of a recent tree-based algorithm for discrete BAMDPs (BAMCP, [12]) and exploits value function approximation for generalization across interaction histories, as has been proposed for simulation-based search in MDPs [19]. As a crucial step towards this end we develop a suitable parametric form for the value function estimates that can generalize appropriately 1 across histories, using the importance sampling weights of posterior samples to compress histories into a finite-dimensional feature vector. As in BAMCP we take advantage of root sampling [18, 12] to avoid expensive belief updates at every step of simulation, making the algorithm practical for a broad range of priors over environment dynamics. We also provide an interpretation of root sampling as an auxiliary variable sampling method. This leads to a new proof of its validity in general simulationbased settings, including BAMDPs with continuous state and action spaces, and a large class of algorithms that includes MC and TD upates. Empirically, we show that our approach requires considerably fewer simulations to find good policies than BAMCP in a (discrete) bandit task and two continuous control tasks with a Gaussian process prior over the dynamics [5, 6]. In the well-known pendulum swing-up task, our algorithm learns how to balance after just a few seconds of interaction. Below, we first briefly review the Bayesian formulation of optimal decision making under model uncertainty (section 2; please see [8] for additional details). We then explain our algorithm (section 3) and present empirical evaluations in section 4. We conclude with a discussion, including related work (sections 5 and 6). 2 Background A Markov Decision Processes (MDP) is described as a tuple M = hS, A, P, R, ?i with S the set of states (which may be infinite), A the discrete set of actions, P : S ? A ? S ? R the state transition probability kernel, R : S ? A ? R the reward function, and ? < 1 the discount factor. The agent starts with a prior P (P) over the dynamics, and maintains a posterior distribution bt (P) = P (P |ht ) ? P (ht | P)P (P), where ht denotes the history of states, actions, and rewards up to time t. The uncertainty about the dynamics of the model can be transformed into certainty about the current state inside an augmented state space S + = H ? S, where H is the set of possible histories (the current state also being the suffix of the current history). The dynamics and rewards associated with this augmented state space are described by Z + 0 0 P (h, s, a, has , s ) = P(s, a, s0 )P (P|h) dP, R+ (h, s, a) = R(s, a). (1) P Together, the 5-tuple M + = hS + , A, P + , R+ , ?i forms the Bayes-Adaptive MDP (BAMDP) for the MDP problem M . Since the dynamics of the BAMDP are known, it can in principle be solved to obtain the optimal value function associated with each action: "? # X 0 ? t ?t Q (ht , st , a) = max E?? ? rt0 |at = a ; ? ? ? (ht , st ) = argmax Q? (ht , st , a), (2) ? ? a t0 =t where ? ? : S + ?A ? [0, 1] is a policy over the augmented state space, from which the optimal action for each belief-state ? ? ? (ht , st ) can readily be derived. Optimal actions in the BAMDP are executed greedily in the real MDP M , and constitute the best course of action (i.e., integrating exploration and exploitation) for a Bayesian agent with respect to its prior belief over P. 3 Bayes-Adaptive simulation-based search Our simulation-based search algorithm for the Bayes-adaptive setup combines efficient MC search via root-sampling with value function approximation. We first explain its underlying idea, assuming a suitable function approximator exists, and provide a novel proof justifying the use of root sampling that also applies in continuous state-action BAMDPs. Finally, we explain how to model Q-values as a function of interaction histories. 3.1 Algorithm As in other forward-search planning algorithms for Bayesian model-based RL [22, 17, 1, 12], at each step t, which is associated with the current history ht (or belief) and state st , we plan online to find ? ? ? (ht , st ) by constructing an action-value function Q(h, s, a). Such methods use simulation to build a search tree of belief states, each of whose nodes corresponds to a single (future) history, and estimate optimal values for these nodes. However, existing algorithms only update the nodes that are directly traversed in each simulation. This is inefficient, as it fails to generalize across multiple histories corresponding either to exactly the same, or similar, beliefs. Instead, each such history must be traversed and updated separately. 2 Here, we use a more general simulation-based search that relies on function approximation, rather than a tree, to represent the values for possible simulated histories and states. This approach was originally suggested in the context of planning in large MDPs[19]; we extend it to the case of Bayes-Adaptive planning. The Q-value of a particular history, state, and action is represented as Q(h, s, a; w), where w is a vector of learnable parameters. Fixed-length simulations are run from the current belief-state ht , st , and the parameter w is updated online, during search, based on experience accumulated along these trajectories, using an incremental RL control algorithm (e.g., Monte-Carlo control, Q-learning). If the parametric form and features induce generalization between histories, then each forward simulation can affect the values of histories that are not directly experienced. This can considerably speed up planning, and enables continuous-state problems to be tackled. Note that a search tree would be a special case of the function approximation approach when the representation of states and histories is tabular. In the context of Bayes-Adaptive plan- Algorithm 1: Bayes-Adaptive simulation-based ning, simulation-based search works search with root sampling by simulating a future trajectory procedure Search( ht , st ) ht+T = st at rt st+1 . . . at+T ?1 rt+T ?1 st+T of repeat P ? P (P |ht ) T transitions (the planning horizon) starting Simulate(ht , st , P, 0) from the current belief-state ht , st . Actions until Timeout() are selected by following a fixed policy ? ?, return argmaxa Q(ht , st , a; w) which is itself a function of the history, end procedure a ? ? ? (h, ?). State transitions can be sampled according to the BAMDP dynamics, procedure Simulate( h, s, P, t) if t > T then return 0 st0 ? P + (ht0 ?1 , st0 ?1 , at0 , ht0 ?1 at0 ?, ?). Howa?? ? ?greedy (Q(h, s, ?; w)) ever, this can be computationally expensive s0 ? P(s, a, ?), r ? R(s, a) since belief updates must be applied at every R ? r + ? Simulate(has0 , s0 , P, t+1) step of the simulation. As an alternative, we w ? w ?? (Q(h, s, a; w) ? R) ?w Q(h, s, a; w) use root sampling [18], which only samples the return R dynamics P k ? P (P |ht ) once at the root for end procedure each simulation k and then samples transitions according to st0 ? P k (st0 ?1 , at0 ?1 , ?); we provide justification for this approach in Section 3.2.1 After the trajectory hT has been simulated on a step, the Q-value is modified by updating w based on the data in ht+T . Any incremental algorithm could be used, including SARSA, Q-learning, or gradient TD [20]; we use a simple scheme to minimize an appropriately weighted squared loss 2 E[(Q(ht0 , st0 , at0 ; w) ? Rt0 ) ]: |? w | = ? (Q(ht0 , st0 , at0 ; w) ? Rt0 ) ?w Q(ht0 , st0 , at0 ; w), (3) where ? is the learning rate and Rt0 denotes the discounted return obtained from history ht0 .2 Algorithm 1 provides pseudo-code for this scheme; here we suggest using as the fixed policy for a simulation the ?greedy ? ? ?greedy based on some given Q value. Other policies could be considered (e.g., the UCT policy for search trees), but are not the main focus of this paper. 3.2 Analysis In order to exploit general results on the convergence of classical RL algorithms for our simulationbased search, it is necessary to show that starting from the current history, root sampling produces the appropriate distribution of rollouts. For the purpose of this section, a simulation-based search algorithm includes Algorithm 1 (with Monte-Carlo backups) but also incremental variants, as discussed above, or BAMCP. Let D?t? be the rollout distribution function of forward-simulations that explicitly updates the belief at each step (i.e., using P + ): D?t? (ht+T ) is the probability density that history ht+T is generated when running that simulation from ht , st , with T the horizon of the simulation, and ? ? an arbitrary ? ? history policy. Similarly define the quantity D?t (ht+T ) as the probability density that history ht+T is generated when running forward-simulations with root sampling, as in Algorithm 1. The following lemma shows that these two rollout distributions are the same. 1 2 For comparison, a version of the algorithm without root sampling is listed in the supplementary material. The loss is weighted according to the distr. of belief-states visited from the current state by executing ? ?. 3 ? ?t? (ht+T ) for all policies ? Lemma 1. D?t? (ht+T ) = D ? : H ? A ? [0, 1] and for all ht+T ? H of length t + T . Proof. A similar result has been obtained for discrete state-action spaces as Lemma 1 in [12] using an induction step on the history length. Here we provide a more intuitive interpretation of root sampling as an auxiliary variable sampling scheme which also applies directly to continuous spaces. We show the equivalence by rewriting the distribution of rollouts. The usual way of sampling histories in simulation-based search, with belief updates, is justified by factoring the density as follows: p(ht+T |ht , ? ? ) = p(at st+1 at+1 st+2 . . . st+T |ht , ? ?) = p(at |ht , ? ? )p(st+1 |ht , ? ? , at )p(at+1 |ht+1 , ? ? ) . . . p(st+T |ht+T ?1 , at+T , ? ?) Y Y p(st0 |ht0 ?1 , ? ? , at0 ?1 ) ? ? (ht0 , at0 ) = = t?t0 <t+T t<t0 ?t+T Y Y ? ? (ht0 , at0 ) t?t0 <t+T (4) (5) (6) Z P (P |ht0 ?1 ) P(st0 ?1 , at0 ?1 , st0 ) dP, t<t0 ?t+T (7) P which makes clear how each simulation step involves a belief update in order to compute (or sample) the integrals. Instead, one may write the history density as the marginalization of the joint over history and the dynamics P, and then notice that an history is generated in a Markovian way if conditioned on the dynamics: Z Z p(ht+T |ht , ? ?) = p(ht+T | P, ht , ? ? )p(P |ht , ? ? ) dP = p(ht+T | P, ? ? )p(P |ht ) dP (8) P P Z Y Y = ? ? (ht0 , at0 ) P(st0 ?1 , at0 ?1 , st0 ) p(P |ht ) dP, (9) P t?t0 <t+T t<t0 ?t+T where eq. (9) makes use of the Markov assumption in the MDP. This makes clear the validity of sampling only from p(P |ht ), as in root sampling. From these derivations, it is immediately clear ? ?t? (ht+T ). that D?t? (ht+T ) = D The result in Lemma 1 does not depend on the way we update the value Q, or on its representation, since the policy is fixed for a given simulation.3 Furthermore, the result guarantees that simulationbased searches will be identical in distribution with and without root sampling. Thus, we have: Corollary 1. Define a Bayes-adaptive simulation-based planning algorithm as a procedure that repeatedly samples future trajectories ht+T ? D?t? from the current history ht (simulation phase), and updates the Q value after each simulation based on the experience ht+T (special cases are Algorithm 1 and BAMCP). Then such a simulation-based algorithm has the same distribution of parameter updates with or without root sampling. This also implies that the two variants share the same fixed-points, since the updates match in distribution. For example, for a discrete environment we can choose a tabular representation of the value function in history space. Applying the MC updates in eq. (3) results in a MC control algorithm applied to the sub-BAMDP from the root state. This is exactly the (BA version of the) MC tree search algorithm [12]. The same principle can also be applied to MC control with function approximation with convergence results under appropriate conditions [2]. Finally, more general updates such as gradient Q-learning could be applied with corresponding convergence guarantees [14]. History Features and Parametric Form for the Q-value 3.3 The quality of a history policy obtained using simulation-based search with a parametric representation Q(h, s, a; w) crucially depends on the features associated with the arguments of Q, i.e., the history, state and action. These features should arrange for histories that lead to the same, or similar, beliefs have the same, or similar, representations, to enable appropriate generalization. This is challenging since beliefs can be infinite-dimensional objects with non-compact sufficient statistics that are therefore hard to express or manipulate. Learning good representations from histories is also tough, for instance because of hidden symmetries (e.g., the irrelevance of the order of the experience tuples that lead to a particular belief). 3 Note that, in Algorithm 1, Q is only updated after the simulation is complete. 4 We propose a parametric representation of the belief at a particular planning step based on sampling. That is, we draw a set of M independent MDP samples or particles U = {P 1 , P 2 , . . . , P M } from U the current belief bt = P (P |ht ), and associate each with a weight zm (h), such that the vector U z (h) is a finite-dimensional approximate representation of the belief based on the set U . We will also refer to z U as a function z U : H ? RM that maps histories to a feature vector. There are various ways one could design the z U function. It is computationally convenient to compute z U (h) recursively as importance weights, just as in a sequential importance sampling particle filter [11]; this only assumes we have access to the likelihood of the observations (i.e., state 1 U transitions). In other words, the weights are initialized as zm (ht ) = M ?m and are then updated recursively using the likelihood of the dynamics model for that particle of observations as U U U zm (has0 ) ? zm (h)P (s0 |a, s, P m ) = zm (h) P m (s, a, s0 ). One advantage of this definition is that it enforces a correspondence between the history and belief representations in the finite-dimensional space, in the sense that zU (h0 ) = zU (h) if belief(h) = belief(h0 ). That is, we can work in history space during planning, alleviating the need for complete belief updates, but via a finite and well-behaved representation of the actual belief ? since different histories corresponding to the same belief are mapped to the same representation. This feature vector can be combined with any function approximator. In our experiments, we combine it with features of the current state and action, ?(s, a), in a simple bilinear form: Q(h, s, a; W) = zU (h)T W ?(s, a), (10) where W is the matrix of learnable parameters adjusted during the search (eq. 3). Here ?(s, a) is a domain-dependent state-action feature vector as is standard in fully observable settings with function approximation. Special cases include tabular representations or forms of tile coding. We discuss the relation of this parametric form to the true value function in the Supp. material. In the next section, we investigate empirically in three varied domains the combination of this parametric form, simulation-based search and Monte-Carlo backups, collectively known as BAFA (for Bayes Adaptive planning with Function Approximation). Experimental results Bernoulli Bandit Bandits have simple dynamics, yet they are still challenging for a generic Bayes-Adaptive planner. Importantly, ground truth is sometimes available [10], so we can evaluate how far the approximations are from Bayes-optimality. 0.6 10 0.4 5 0.2 2 4 6 8 10 ? (a) m?,? BAFA, M=2 BAFA, M=5 2 BAFA, M=25 Weighted decision error The discrete Bernoulli bandit domain (section 4.1) demonstrates dramatic efficiency gains due to generalization with convergence to a near Bayes-optimal solution. The navigation task (section 4.2) and the pendulum (section 4.3) demonstrate the ability of BAFA to handle non-trivial planning horizons for large BAMDPs with continuous states. We provide comparisons to a state of the art BA tree-search algorithm (BAMCP, [12]), choosing a suitable discretization of the state space for the continuous problems. For the pendulum we also compare to two Bayesian, but not Bayes adaptive, approaches. 4.1 0.8 15 ? 4 BAMCP (Tree?search) Posterior Mean 1.5 1 0.5 0 10 3 10 4 Number of simulations 10 5 (b) We consider a 2-armed Bernoulli bandit problem. We op- Figure 1: a) The weights m?,? b) Avpose an uncertain arm with prior success probability p1 ? eraged (weighted) decision errors for the Beta(?, ?) against an arm with known success probability different methods as a function of the p0 . We consider the scenario ? = 0.99, p0 = 0.2 for which number of simulations. the optimal decision, and the posterior mean decision frequently differ. Decision errors for different values of ?, ? do not have the same consequence, so we weight each scenario according to the difference between their associated Gittins indices. Define the weight as m?,? = |g?,? ? p0 | where g?,? is the Gittins index for ?, ?; this is an upper-bound (up to a scaling factor) on the difference between the value of the arms. The weights are shown in Figure 1-a. 5 We compute the weighted errors over 20 runs for a particular method as E?,? = m?,? ? P (Wrong decision for (?, ?)), and report the sum of these terms across the range 1 ? ? ? 10 and 1 ? ? ? 19 in Figure 1-b as a function of the number of simulations. Though this is a discrete problem, these results show that the value function approximation approach, even with a limited number of particles (M ) for the history features, learns considerably more quickly than BAMCP . This is because BAFA generalizes between similar beliefs. 4.2 Height map navigation We next consider a 2-D navigation problem on an unknown continuous height map. The agent?s state is (x, y, z, ?), it moves on a bounded region of the (x, y) ? 8 ? 8m plane according to (known) noisy dynamics. The agent chooses between 5 different actions, the dynamics for (x, y) are (xt+1 , yt+1 ) = (xt , yt ) + l(cos(?a ), sin(?a )) +  , where ?a corresponds to the action from this set ?a ? ? + {? ?3 , ? ?6 , 0, ?6 , ?3 },  is small isotropic Gaussian noise (? = 0.05), and l = 13 m is the step size. Within the bounded region, the reward function is the value of a latent height map z = f (x, y) which is only observed at a single point by the agent. The height map is a draw from a Gaussian process (GP), f ? GP (0, K), using a multi-scale squared exponential kernel for the covariance matrix and zero mean. In order to test long-horizon planning, we downplay situations where the agents can simply follow the expected gradient locally to reach high reward regions by starting the agent on a small local maximum. To achieve this we simply condition the GP draw on a few pseudo-observations with small negative z around the agent and a small positive z at the starting position, which creates a small bump (on average). The domain is illustrated in Figure 2-a with an example map. We compare BAMCP against BAFA on this domain, planning over 75 steps with a discount of 0.98. Since BAMCP works with discrete state, we uniformly discretize the height observations. For the state-features in BAFA, we use a regular tile coding of the space; an RBF network leads to similar results. We use a common set of a 100 ground truth maps drawn from the prior for each algorithm/setting, and we average the discounted return over 200 runs (2 runs/map) and report that result in Figure 2-b as a function of the planning horizon (T ). This result illustrates the ability of BAFA to cope with non-trivial planning horizons in belief space. Despite the discretization, BAMCP is very efficient with short planning horizons, but has trouble optimizing the history policy with long horizons because of the huge tree induced by the discretization of the observations. 40 BAMCP K=2000 BAMCP K=5000 35 BAMCP K=15000 Discounted return BAFA K=2000 30 BAFA K=5000 BAFA K=15000 25 20 15 (a) 10 0 5 10 15 20 25 Planning horizon (b) Figure 2: (a) Example map showing with the height color-coded from white (negative reward z) to black (positive reward z). The black dots denote the location of the initial pseudo-observations used to obtain the ground truth map. The white squares show the past trajectory of the agent, starting at the cross and ending at the current position in green. The green trajectory is one particular forward simulation of BAFA from that position. (b) Averaged discounted return (higher is better) in the navigation domain for discretized BAMCP and BAFA as a function of the number of simulations (K), and as function of the planning horizon (x-axis). 4.3 Under-actuated Pendulum Swing-up Finally, we consider the classic RL problem in which an agent must swing a pendulum from hanging vertically down to balancing vertically up, but given only limited torque. This requires the agent to build up momentum by swinging, before being able to balance. Note that although a wide variety of methods can successfully learn this task given enough experience, it is a challenging domain for Bayes-adaptive algorithms, which have duly not been tried. 6 We use conventional parameter settings for the pendulum [5], a mass of 1kg, a length of 1m, a maximum torque of 5Nm, and coefficient of friction of 0.05 kg m2 / s. The state of the pendulum ? Each time-step corresponds to 0.05s, ? = 0.98, and the reward function is R(s) = is s = (?, ?). cos(?). In the initial state, the pendulum is pointing down with no velocity, s0 = (?, 0). Three actions are available to the agent, to apply a torque of either {?5, 0, 5}Nm. The agent does not initially know the dynamics of the pendulum. As in [5], we assume it employs independent Gaussian processes to capture the state change in each dimension for a given action. That is, sit+1 ? sit ? GP (mia , Kai ) for each state dimension i and each action a (where Kai are Squared Exponential kernels). Since there are 2 dimensions and 3 actions, we maintain 6 Gaussian processes, and plan ? together with the possible future GP posteriors to decide which action to in the joint space of (?, ?) take at any given step. We compare four approaches on this problem to understand the contributions of both generalization and Bayes-Adaptive planning to the performance of the agent. BAFA includes both; we also consider two non-Bayes-adaptive variants using the same simulation-based approach with value generalization. In a Thompson Sampling variant (THOMP), we only consider a single posterior sample of the dynamics at each step and greedily solve using simulation-based search. In an exploit-only variant (FA), we run a simulation-based search that optimizes a state-only policy over the uncertainty in the dynamics, this is achieved by running BAFA with no history feature.4 For BAFA, FA, and THOMP, we use the same RBF network for the state-action features, consisting of 900 nodes. In addition, we also consider the BAMCP planner with an uniform discretization of the ?, ?? space that worked best in a coarse initial search; this method performs Bayes-adaptive planning but with no value generalization. 1 BAFA 0.2 0.1 0 0 5 10 15 0 5 10 15 Fraction 20 FA 5 10 15 20 0 > 20 0.2 0 > 20 0 0 5 10 Time (s) 15 20 5 10 15 (a) 20 > 20 > 20 1 FA 0.5 0 0 5 10 15 20 > 20 1 THOMP 0.2 0.5 0.1 0 > 20 20 1 0.1 0.5 0.1 15 0 0 1 THOMP 10 0.5 0.2 0 5 BAMCP 0.1 0.5 0 0 0 1 0.1 0 0 0.5 0.2 0 0.1 > 20 0.2 0.1 0 0.5 1 BAMCP 0.2 0 20 Fraction 0 1 BAFA 0.2 0.5 0 0 5 10 Time (s) 15 20 > 20 (b) ? for ? 3s) for different 4 methods in the pendulum domain. (a) A standard version of the pendulum problem with a cosine cost function. (b) A more difficult version of the problem with uncertain cost for balancing (see text). There is a 20s time limit, so all runs which do not achieve balancing within that time window are reported in the red bar. The histogram is computed with 100 runs with (a) K = 10000, or (b) K = 15000, simulations for each algorithm, horizon T = 50 and (for BAFA) M = 50 particles. The black dashed line represents the median of the distribution. Figure 3: Histogram of delay until the agent reaches its first balance state (|?| < We allow each algorithm a maximum of 20s of interaction with the pendulum, and consider as upstate any configuration of the pendulum for which |?| ? ?4 and we consider the pendulum balanced if it stays in an up-state for more than 3s. We report in Figure 3-a the time it takes for each method to reach for the first time a balanced state. We observe that Bayes-adaptive planning (BAFA or BAMCP) outperforms more heuristic exploration methods, with most runs balancing before 8.5s. In the Suppl. material, Figure S1 shows traces of example runs. With the same parametrization of the pendulum, Deisenroth et al. reported balancing the pole after between 15 and 60 seconds of interaction when assuming access to a restart distribution [5]. More recently, Moldovan et al. reported balancing after 12-18s of interaction using a method tailored for locally linear dynamics [15]. However, the pendulum problem also illustrates that BA planning for this particular task is not hugely advantageous compared to more myopic approaches to exploration. We speculate that this 4 The approximate value function for FA and THOMP thus takes the form Q(s, a) = wT ?(s, a). 7 is due to a lack of structure in the problem and test this with a more challenging, albeit artificial, version of the pendulum problem that requires non-myopic planning over longer horizons. In this modified version, balancing the pendulum (i.e., being in the region |?| < ?4 ) is either rewarding (R(s) = 1) with probability 0.5, or costly (R(s) = ?1) with probability 0.5; all other states have an associated reward of 0. This can be modeled formally by introducing another binary latent variable in the model. These latent dynamics are observed with certainty if the pendulum reaches any state where |?| ? 3? 4 . The rest of the problem is the same. To approximate correctly the Bayes-optimal solution in this setting, the planning algorithm must optimize the belief-state policy after it simulates observing whether balancing is rewarding or not. We run this version of the problem with the same algorithms as above and report the results in Figure 3-b. This hard planning problem highlights more clearly the benefits of Bayes-adaptive planning and value generalization. Our approach manages to balance the pendulum more 80% of the time, compared to about 35% for BAMCP, while THOMP and FA fail to balance for almost all runs. In the Suppl. material, Figure S2 illustrates the influence of the number of particles M on the performance of BAFA. 5 Related Work Simulation-based search with value function approximation has been investigated in large and also continuous MDPs, in combination with TD-learning [19] or Monte-Carlo control [3]. However, this has not been in a Bayes-adaptive setting. By contrast, existing online Bayes-Adaptive algorithms [22, 17, 1, 12, 9] rely on a tree structure to build a map from histories to value. This cannot benefit from generalization in a straightforward manner, leading to the inefficiencies demonstrated above and hindering their application to the continuous case. Continuous Bayes-Adaptive (PO)MDPs have been considered using an online Monte-Carlo algorithm [4]; however this tree-based planning algorithm expands nodes uniformly, and does not admit generalization between beliefs. This severely limits the possible depth of tree search ([4] use a depth of 3). In the POMDP literature, a key idea to represent beliefs is to sample a finite set of (possibly approximate) belief points [21, 16] from the set of possible beliefs in order to obtain a small number of (belief-)states for which to backup values offline or via forward search [13]. In contrast, our sampling approach to belief representation does not restrict the number of (approximate) belief points since our belief features (z(h)) can take an infinite number of values, but it instead restricts their dimension, thus avoiding infinite-dimensional belief spaces. Wang et al.[23] also use importance sampling to compute the weights of a finite set of particles. However, they use these particles to discretize the model space and thus create an approximate, discrete POMDP. They solve this offline with no (further) generalization between beliefs, and thus no opportunity to re-adjust the belief representation based on past experience. A function approximation scheme in the context of BA planning has been considered by Duff [7], in an offline actor-critic paradigm. However, this was in a discrete setting where counts could be used as features for the belief. 6 Discussion We have introduced a tractable approach to Bayes-adaptive planning in large or continuous state spaces. Our method is quite general, subsuming Monte Carlo tree search methods, while allowing for arbitrary generalizations over interaction histories using value function approximation. Each simulation is no longer an isolated path in an exponentially growing tree, but instead value backups can impact many non-visited beliefs and states. We proposed a particular parametric form for the action-value function based on a Monte-Carlo approximation of the belief. To reduce the computational complexity of each simulation, we adopt a root sampling method which avoids expensive belief updates during a simulation and hence poses very few restrictions on the possible form of the prior over environment dynamics. Our experiments demonstrated that the BA solution can be effectively approximated, and that the resulting generalization can lead to substantial gains in efficiency in discrete tasks with large trees. We also showed that our approach can be used to solve continuous BA problems with non-trivial planning horizons without discretization, something which had not previously been possible. Using a widely used GP framework to model continuous system dynamics (for the case of a swing-up pendulum task), we achieved state-of the art performance. Our general framework can be applied with more powerful methods for learning the parameters of the value function approximation, and it can also be adapted to be used with continuous actions. We expect that further gains will be possible, e.g. from the use of bootstrapping in the weight updates, alternative rollout policies, and reusing values and policies between (real) steps. 8 References [1] J. Asmuth and M. Littman. Approaching Bayes-optimality using Monte-Carlo tree search. In Proceedings of the 27th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, pages 19?26, 2011. [2] Dimitri P Bertsekas. Approximate policy iteration: A survey and some new methods. Journal of Control Theory and Applications, 9(3):310?335, 2011. [3] SRK Branavan, D. Silver, and R. Barzilay. Learning to win by reading manuals in a Monte-Carlo framework. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 43:661?704, 2012. [4] P. Dallaire, C. Besse, S. Ross, and B. Chaib-draa. Bayesian reinforcement learning in continuous POMDPs with Gaussian processes. In Intelligent Robots and Systems, 2009. IROS 2009. IEEE/RSJ International Conference on, pages 2604?2609. IEEE, 2009. [5] Marc Peter Deisenroth, Carl Edward Rasmussen, and Jan Peters. Gaussian process dynamic programming. Neurocomputing, 72(7):1508?1524, 2009. [6] MP Deisenroth and CE Rasmussen. PILCO: A model-based and data-efficient approach to policy search. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 465?473. International Machine Learning Society, 2011. [7] M. Duff. Design for an optimal probe. In Proceedings of the 20th International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 131?138, 2003. [8] M.O.G. Duff. Optimal Learning: Computational Procedures For Bayes-Adaptive Markov Decision Processes. PhD thesis, University of Massachusetts Amherst, 2002. [9] Raphael Fonteneau, Lucian Busoniu, and R?emi Munos. Optimistic planning for belief-augmented Markov decision processes. In IEEE International Symposium on Adaptive Dynamic Programming and reinforcement Learning (ADPRL 2013), 2013. [10] J.C. Gittins, R. Weber, and K.D. Glazebrook. Multi-armed bandit allocation indices. Wiley Online Library, 1989. [11] Neil J Gordon, David J Salmond, and Adrian FM Smith. Novel approach to nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian state estimation. In IEE Proceedings F (Radar and Signal Processing), volume 140, pages 107?113, 1993. [12] A. Guez, D. Silver, and P. Dayan. Efficient Bayes-adaptive reinforcement learning using sample-based search. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), pages 1034?1042, 2012. [13] Hanna Kurniawati, David Hsu, and Wee Sun Lee. SARSOP: Efficient point-based POMDP planning by approximating optimally reachable belief spaces. In Robotics: Science and Systems, pages 65?72, 2008. [14] H.R. Maei, C. Szepesv?ari, S. Bhatnagar, and R.S. Sutton. Toward off-policy learning control with function approximation. Proc. ICML 2010, pages 719?726, 2010. [15] Teodor Mihai Moldovan, Michael I Jordan, and Pieter Abbeel. Dirichlet Process reinforcement learning. In Reinforcement Learning and Decision Making Meeting, 2013. [16] J. Pineau, G. Gordon, and S. Thrun. Point-based value iteration: An anytime algorithm for POMDPs. In International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, volume 18, pages 1025?1032, 2003. [17] S. Ross and J. Pineau. Model-based bayesian reinforcement learning in large structured domains. In Proc. 24th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI08), pages 476?483, 2008. [18] D. Silver and J. Veness. Monte-Carlo planning in large POMDPs. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), pages 2164?2172, 2010. [19] David Silver, Richard S Sutton, and Martin M?uller. Temporal-difference search in computer go. Machine learning, 87(2):183?219, 2012. [20] R. S. Sutton, H. R. Maei, D. Precup, S. Bhatnagar, D. Silver, C. Szepesv?ari, and E. Wiewiora. Fast gradient-descent methods for temporal-difference learning with linear function approximation. In Proceedings of the 26th Annual International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2009, volume 382, page 125, 2009. [21] Sebastian Thrun. Monte Carlo POMDPs. In NIPS, volume 12, pages 1064?1070, 1999. [22] T. Wang, D. Lizotte, M. Bowling, and D. Schuurmans. Bayesian sparse sampling for on-line reward optimization. In Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Machine learning, pages 956?963, 2005. [23] Y. Wang, K.S. Won, D. Hsu, and W.S. Lee. Monte Carlo Bayesian reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, 2012. 9
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Altitude Training: Strong Bounds for Single-Layer Dropout Stefan Wager? , William Fithian? , Sida Wang? , and Percy Liang?,? Departments of Statistics? and Computer Science? Stanford University, Stanford, CA-94305, USA {swager, wfithian}@stanford.edu, {sidaw, pliang}@cs.stanford.edu Abstract Dropout training, originally designed for deep neural networks, has been successful on high-dimensional single-layer natural language tasks. This paper proposes a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon: we show that, under a generative Poisson topic model with long documents, dropout training improves the exponent in the generalization bound for empirical risk minimization. Dropout achieves this gain much like a marathon runner who practices at altitude: once a classifier learns to perform reasonably well on training examples that have been artificially corrupted by dropout, it will do very well on the uncorrupted test set. We also show that, under similar conditions, dropout preserves the Bayes decision boundary and should therefore induce minimal bias in high dimensions. 1 Introduction Dropout training [1] is an increasingly popular method for regularizing learning algorithms. Dropout is most commonly used for regularizing deep neural networks [2, 3, 4, 5], but it has also been found to improve the performance of logistic regression and other single-layer models for natural language tasks such as document classification and named entity recognition [6, 7, 8]. For single-layer linear models, learning with dropout is equivalent to using ?blankout noise? [9]. The goal of this paper is to gain a better theoretical understanding of why dropout regularization works well for natural language tasks. We focus on the task of document classification using linear classifiers where data comes from a generative Poisson topic model. In this setting, dropout effectively deletes random words from a document during training; this corruption makes the training examples harder. A classifier that is able to fit the training data will therefore receive an accuracy boost at test time on the much easier uncorrupted examples. An apt analogy is altitude training, where athletes practice in more difficult situations than they compete in. Importantly, our analysis does not rely on dropout merely creating more pseudo-examples for training, but rather on dropout creating more challenging training examples. Somewhat paradoxically, we show that removing information from training examples can induce a classifier that performs better at test time. Main Result Consider training the zero-one loss empirical risk minimizer (ERM) using dropout, where each word is independently removed with probability 2 (0, 1). For a class of Poisson generative topic models, we show that dropout gives rise to what we call the altitude training phenomenon: dropout improves the excess risk of the ERM by multiplying the exponent p in its decay rate by 1/(1 ). This improvement comes at the cost of an additive term of O(1/ ), where ? 0 be the expected and is the average number of words per document. More formally, let h? and h S. Wager and W. Fithian are supported by a B.C. and E.J. Eaves Stanford Graduate Fellowship and NSF VIGRE grant DMS?0502385 respectively. 1 ? be the corresponding quantities for dropout empirical risk minimizers, respectively; let h? and h training. Let Err(h) denote the error rate (on test examples) of h. In Section 4, we show that: 0 1 ? ? ? ? ?11 B? 1 C ? ? ?0 eP B Err h Err h Err (h? ) = O Err (h ) +p C @ A, | {z } | {z } dropout excess risk (1) ERM excess risk eP is a variant of big-O in probability notation that suppresses logarithmic factors. If is where O large (we are classifying long documents rather than short snippets of text), dropout considerably accelerates the decay rate of excess risk. The bound (1) holds for fixed choices of . The constants in the bound worsen as approaches 1, and so we cannot get zero excess risk by sending to 1. Our result is modular in that it converts upper bounds on the ERM excess risk to upper bounds on the dropout excess risk. For example, recall from classic VC theory that the ERM excess risk is p eP ( d/n), where d is the number of features (vocabulary size) and n is the number of training O examples. With p dropout = 0.5, our result (1) directly implies that the dropout excess risk is eP (d/n + 1/ ). O The intuition behind the proof of (1) is as follows: when = 0.5, we essentially train on half documents and test on whole documents. By conditional independence properties of the generative topic model, the classification score is roughly Gaussian under a Berry-Esseen bound, and the error rate is governed by the tails of the Gaussian. Compared to half documents, the coefficient of variation p of the classification score on whole documents (at test time) is scaled down by 1 compared to half documents (at training time), resulting in an exponential reduction in error. The additive penalty p of 1/ stems from the Berry-Esseen approximation. Note that the bound (1) only controls the dropout excess risk. Even if dropout reduces the excess risk, it may introduce a bias Err(h? ) Err(h? ), and thus (1) is useful only when this bias is small. In Section 5, we will show that the optimal Bayes decision boundary is not affected by dropout under the Poisson topic model. Bias is thus negligible when the Bayes boundary is close to linear. It is instructive to compare our generalization bound to that of Ng and Jordan [10], who showed that the naive Bayes classifier exploits a strong generative assumption?conditional independence of the p features given the label?to achieve an excess risk of OP ( (log d)/n). However, if the generative assumption is incorrect, then naive Bayes can have a large bias. Dropout enables us to cut excess risk without incurring as much bias. In fact, naive Bayes is closely related to logistic regression trained using an extreme form of dropout with ! 1. Training logistic regression with dropout rates from the range 2 (0, 1) thus gives a family of classifiers between unregularized logistic regression and naive Bayes, allowing us to tune the bias-variance tradeoff. Other perspectives on dropout In the general setting, dropout only improves generalization by a multiplicative factor. McAllester [11] used the PAC-Bayes framework to prove a generalization bound for dropout that decays as 1 . Moreover, provided that is not too close to 1, dropout behaves similarly to an adaptive L2 regularizer with parameter /(1 ) [6, 12], and at least in linear regression such L2 regularization improves generalization error by a constant factor. In contrast, by leveraging the conditional independence assumptions of the topic model, we are able to improve the exponent in the rate of convergence of the empirical risk minimizer. It is also possible to analyze dropout as an adaptive regularizer [6, 9, 13]: in comparison with L2 regularization, dropout favors the use of rare features and encourages confident predictions. If we believe that good document classification should produce confident predictions by understanding rare words with Poisson-like occurrence patterns, then the work on dropout as adaptive regularization and our generalization-based analysis are two complementary explanations for the success of dropout in natural language tasks. 2 Dropout Training for Topic Models In this section, we introduce binomial dropout, a form of dropout suitable for topic models, and the Poisson topic model, on which all our analyses will be based. 2 Binomial Dropout Suppose that we have a binary classification problem1 with count features (i) x(i) 2 {0, 1, 2, . . .}d and labels y (i) 2 {0, 1}. For example, xj is the number of times the j-th word in our dictionary appears in the i-th document, and y (i) is the label of the document. Our goal is to train a weight vector w b that classifies new examples with features x via a linear decision rule y? = I{w b ? x > 0}. We start with the usual empirical risk minimizer: ( n ) ? X ? def (i) (i) w b0 = argminw2Rd ` w; x , y (2) i=1 for some loss function ` (we will analyze the zero-one loss but use logistic loss in experiments [e.g., 10, 14, 15]). Binomial dropout trains on perturbed features x ?(i) instead of the original features x(i) : ( n ) ?i ? ? X h ? def (i) (i) w b = argminw E ` w; x ?(i) , y (i) , where x ?j = Binom xj ; 1 . (3) i=1 In other words, during training, we randomly thin the j-th feature xj with binomial noise. If xj counts the number of times the j-th word appears in the document, then replacing xj with x ?j is equivalent to independently deleting each occurrence of word j with probability . Because we are only interested in the decision boundary, we do not scale down the weight vector obtained by dropout by a factor 1 as is often done [e.g., 1]. Binomial dropout differs slightly from the usual definition of (blankout) dropout, which alters the feature vector x by setting random coordinates to 0 [6, 9, 11, 12]. The reason we chose to study binomial rather than blankout dropout is that Poisson random variables remain Poisson even after binomial thinning; this fact lets us streamline our analysis. For rare words that appear once in the document, the two types of dropout are equivalent. A Generative Poisson Topic Model Throughout our analysis, we assume that the data is drawn from a Poisson topic model depicted in Figure 1a and defined as follows. Each document i is assigned a label y (i) according to some Bernoulli distribution. Then, given the label y (i) , the document gets a topic ? (i) 2 ? from a distribution ?y(i) . Given the topic ? (i) , for every word j in the vocabu(i) (i) (? (i) ) (? ) lary, we generate its frequency xj according to xj ? (i) ? Poisson( j ), where j 2 [0, 1) is the expected number of times word j appears under topic ? . Note that k (? ) k1 is the average def length of a document with topic ? . Define = min? 2? k (? ) k1 to be the shortest average document length across topics. If ? contains only two topics?one for each class?we get the naive Bayes model. If ? is the (K 1)-dimensional simplex where (? ) is a ? -mixture over K basis vectors, we get the K-topic latent Dirichlet allocation [16].2 Note that although our generalization result relies on a generative model, the actual learning algorithm is agnostic to it. Our analysis shows that dropout can take advantage of a generative structure while remaining a discriminative procedure. If we believed that a certain topic model held exactly and we knew the number of topics, we could try to fit the full generative model by EM. This, however, could make us vulnerable to model misspecification. In contrast, dropout benefits from generative assumptions while remaining more robust to misspecification. 3 Altitude Training: Linking the Dropout and Data-Generating Measures ? trained using dropout. During dropout, Our goal is to understand the behavior of a classifier h the error of any classifier h is characterized by two measures. In the end, we are interested in the usual generalization error (expected risk) of h where x is drawn from the underlying data-generating measure: def Err (h) = P [y 6= h(x)] . (4) 1 Dropout training is known to work well in practice for multi-class problems [8]. For simplicity, however, we will restrict our theoretical analysis to a two-class setup. 2 In topic modeling, the vertices of the simplex ? are ?topics? and ? is a mixture of topics, whereas we call ? itself a topic. 3 However, since dropout training works on the corrupted data x ? (see (3)), in the limit of infinite data, the dropout estimator will converge to the minimizer of the generalization error with respect to the dropout measure over x ?: def Err (h) = P [y 6= h(? x)] . (5) The main difficulty in analyzing the generalization of dropout is that classical theory tells us that the generalization error with respect to the dropout measure will decrease as n ! 1, but we are interested in the original measure. Thus, we need to bound Err in terms of Err . In this section, we show that the error on the original measure is actually much smaller than the error on the dropout measure; we call this the altitude training phenomenon. Under our generative model, the count features xj are conditionally independent given the topic ? . We thus focus on a single fixed topic ? and establish the following theorem, which provides a per-topic analogue of (1). Section 4 will then use this theorem to obtain our main result. Theorem 1. Let h be a binary linear classifier with weights w, and suppose that our features are drawn from the Poisson generative model given topic ? . Let c? be the more likely label given ? : h i def c? = arg max P y (i) = c ? (i) = ? . (6) c2{0,1} Let "?? be the sub-optimal prediction rate in the dropout measure h n o i def "?? = P I w ? x ?(i) > 0 6= c? ? (i) = ? , (7) where x ?(i) is an example thinned by binomial dropout (3), and P is taken over the data-generating process. Let "? be the sub-optimal prediction rate in the original measure h n o i def "? = P I w ? x(i) > 0 6= c? ? (i) = ? . (8) Then: where ? Pd = maxj wj2 / j=1 ? 1 p e "??1 + "? = O (? ) 2 j wj , ? ? (9) , and the constants in the bound depend only on . Theorem 1 only provides us with a useful bound p when the term ? is p small. Whenever the largest wj2 is not much larger than the average wj2 , then scales as O(1/ ), where is the average ? document length. Thus, the bound (9) is most useful for long documents. A Heuristic Proof of Theorem 1. The proof of Theorem 1 is provided in the technical appendix. Here, we provide a heuristic argument for intuition. ? Given a fixed ? topic ? , suppose that it is optimal to predict c? = 1, so our test error is "? = P w ? x ? 0 ? . For long enough documents, by def the central limit theorem, the score s = w ? x will be roughly Gaussian s ? N ?? , ?2 , where Pd Pd (? ) (? ) ?? = j=1 j wj and ?2 = j=1 j wj2 . This implies that "? ? ( ?? / ? ) , where is the def cumulative distribution function of the Gaussian. Now, let s? = w ? x ? be the score on a dropout sample. Clearly, E [? s] = (1 ) ?? and Var [? s] = (1 ) ?2 , because the variance of a Poisson random variable scales with its mean. Thus, ? ? ? ?(1 ) p ?? ?? ) "?? ? 1 ? ? "(1 . (10) ? ? ? Figure 1b illustrates the relationship betweenpthe two Gaussians. This explains the first term on the right-hand side of (9). The extra error term ? arises from a Berry-Esseen bound that approximates Poisson mixtures by Gaussian random variables. 4 A Generalization Bound for Dropout By setting up a bridge between the dropout measure and the original data-generating measure, Theorem 1 provides a foundation for our analysis. It remains to translate this result into a statement about the generalization error of dropout. For this, we need to make a few assumptions. 4 0.0 0.1 0.2 density ? 0.3 0.4 0.5 Original Dropout y ? x ?2 J ?1 0 1 2 3 score I (a) Graphical representation of the Poisson topic model: Given a document with label y, we draw a document topic ? from the multinomial distribution with probabilities ?y . Then, we draw the words x from the topic?s Poisson distribution with mean (? ) . Boxes indicate repeated observations, and greyed-out nodes are observed during training. (b) For a fixed classifier w, the probabilities of error on an example drawn from the original and dropout measures are governed by the tails of two Gaussians (shaded). The dropout Gaussian has a larger coefficient of variation, which means the error on the original measure (test) is much smaller than the error on the dropout measure (train) (10). In this example, ? = 2.5, = 1, and = 0.5. Figure 1: (a) Graphical model. (b) The altitude training phenomenon. Our first assumption is fundamental: if the classification signal is concentrated among just a few features, then we cannot expect dropout training to do well. The second and third assumptions, which are more technical, guarantee that a classifier can only do well overall if it does well on every topic; this lets us apply Theorem 1. A more general analysis that relaxes Assumptions 2 and 3 may be an interesting avenue for future work. Assumption 1: well-balanced weights First, we need to assume that all the signal is not concentrated in a few features. To make this intuition formal, we say a linear classifier with weights w is well-balanced if the following holds for each topic ? : Pd (? ) maxj wj2 j=1 j ? ? for some 0 < ? < 1. (11) Pd (? ) 2 j=1 j wj For example, suppose each word was either useful (|wj | = 1) or not (wj = 0); then ? is the inverse expected fraction of words in a document that are useful. In Theorem 2 we restrict the ERM to well-balanced classifiers and assume that the expected risk minimizer h? over all linear rules is also well-balanced. Assumption 2: discrete topics Second, we assume that there are a finite number T of topics, and that the available topics are not too rare or ambiguous: the minimal probability of observing any topic ? is bounded below by P [? ] pmin > 0, (12) and that each topic-conditional probability is bounded away from 12 (random guessing): h i 1 P y (i) = c ? (i) = ? ?>0 (13) 2 for all topics ? 2 {1, ..., T }. This assumption substantially simplifies our arguments, allowing us to apply Theorem 1 to each topic separately without technical overhead. Assumption 3: distinct topics Finally, as an extension of Assumption 2, we require that the topics be ?well separated.? First, define Errmin = P[y (i) 6= c? (i) ], where c? is the most likely label given topic ? (6); this is the error rate of the optimal decision rule that sees topic ? . We assume that the best linear rule h? satisfying (11) is almost as good as always guessing the best label c? under the dropout measure: ? ? 1 Err (h? ) = Errmin + O p , (14) 5 where, as usual, is a lower bound on the average document length. If the dimension d is larger than the number of topics T , this assumption is fairly weak: the condition (14) holds whenever the matrix ? of topic centers has full rank, and the minimum singular value of ? is not too small (see Proposition 6 in the Appendix for details). This assumption is satisfied if the different topics can be separated from each other with a large margin. Under Assumptions 1?3 we can turn Theorem 1 into a statement about generalization error. Theorem 2. Suppose that our features x are drawn from the Poisson generative model (Figure 1a), ? on the dropout and and Assumptions 1?3 hold. Define the excess risks of the dropout classifier h data-generating measures, respectively: ? ? ? ? def def ? ? ?? = Err h Err (h? ) and ? = Err h Err (h? ) . (15) Then, the altitude training phenomenon applies: ? ? 1 1 e 1 ? = O ?? +p . The above bound scales linearly in pmin1 and ? 1 (16) ; the full dependence on is shown in the appendix. In a sense, Theorem 2 is a meta-generalization bound that allows us to transform generalization bounds with respect to the dropout measure (? ? ) into ones on the data-generating p measure (?) in a eP ( d/n) bound which, modular way. As a simple example, standard VC theory provides an ?? = O together with Theorem 2, yields: ? achieves the folCorollary 3. Under the same conditions as Theorem 2, the dropout classifier h lowing excess risk: 0 r ! 1 1 1 ? ? d 1 ? eP @ + p A. (17) Err h Err (h? ) = O n ? More generally, we can often check that upper bounds for Err(h) Err(h? ) also work as upper ? ? bounds for Err (h ) Err (h ); this gives us the heuristic result from (1). 5 The Bias of Dropout In the previous section, we showed that under the Poisson topic model in Figure 1a, dropout can ? ) Err(h? ). But to complete our picture of dropout?s achieve a substantial cut in excess risk Err(h performance, we must address the bias of dropout: Err(h? ) Err(h? ). Dropout can be viewed as importing ?hints? from a generative assumption about the data. Each observed (x, y) pair (each labeled document) gives us information not only about the conditional class probability at x, but also about the conditional class probabilities at numerous other hypothetical values x ? representing shorter documents of the same class that did not occur. Intuitively, if these x ? are actually good representatives of that class, the bias of dropout should be mild. For our key result in this section, we will take the Poisson generative model from Figure 1a, but further assume that document length is independent of the topic. Under this assumption, we will show that dropout preserves the Bayes decision boundary in the following sense: Proposition 4. Let (x, y) be distributed according to the Poisson topic model of Figure 1a. Assume that document length is independent of topic: k (? ) k1 = for all topics ? . Let x ? be a binomial dropout sample of x with some dropout probability 2 (0, 1). Then, for every feature vector v 2 Rd , we have: ? ? ? ? P y=1 x ?=v =P y=1 x=v . (18) If we? had an infinite x, y) corrupted under dropout, we would predict according to ? amount of data (? I{P y = 1 x ? = v > 12 }. The significance of Proposition 4 is that this decision rule is identical to the true Bayes decision boundary (without dropout). Therefore, the empirical risk minimizer of a sufficiently rich hypothesis class trained with dropout would incur very small bias. 6 20 0.5 1 2 5 10 0 Test Error Rate (%) 200 ? ?? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ???? ? ? ? 100 X2 300 LogReg Boundary Dropout Boundary Bayes Boundary 0 o Long Documents Short (Dropout) Documents LR 0.25 0.5 0.75 0.9 0.95 0.99 NB 0 100 200 300 400 50 500 100 200 500 1000 2000 n X1 (a) Dropout ( = 0.75) with d = 2. For long documents (circles in the upper-right), logistic regression focuses on capturing the small red cluster; the large red cluster has almost no influence. Dropout (dots in the lower-left) distributes influence more equally between the two red clusters. (b) Learning curves for the synthetic experiment. Each axis is plotted on a log scale. Here the dropout rate ranges from 0 (logistic regression) to 1 (naive Bayes) for multiple values of training set sizes n. As n increases, less dropout is preferable, as the bias-variance tradeoff shifts. Figure 2: Behavior of binomial dropout in simulations. In the left panel, the circles are the original data, while the dots are dropout-thinned examples. The Monte Carlo error is negligible. However, Proposition 4 does not guarantee that dropout incurs no bias when we fit a linear classifier. In general, the best linear approximation for classifying shorter documents is not necessarily the best for classifying longer documents. As n ! 1, a linear classifier trained on (x, y) pairs will eventually outperform one trained on (? x, y) pairs. Dropout for Logistic Regression To gain some more intuition about how dropout affects linear classifiers, we consider logistic regression. A similar phenomenon should also hold for the ERM, but discussing this solution is more difficult since the ERM solution does not have have a simple characterization. The relationship between the 0-1 loss and convexP surrogates has been studied n by, e.g., [14, 15]. The score criterion for logistic regression is 0 = i=1 y (i) p?i x(i) , where (i) b p?i = (1 + e w?x ) 1 are the fitted probabilities. Note that easily-classified examples (where p?i is (i) close to y ) play almost no role in driving the fit. Dropout turns easy examples into hard examples, giving more examples a chance to participate in learning a good classification rule. Figure 2a illustrates dropout?s tendency to spread influence more democratically for a simple classification problem with d = 2. The red class is a 99:1 mixture over two topics, one of which is much less common, but harder to classify, than the other. There is only one topic for the blue class. For long documents (open circles in the top right), the infrequent, hard-to-classify red cluster dominates the fit while the frequent, easy-to-classify red cluster is essentially ignored. For dropout documents with = 0.75 (small dots, lower left), both red clusters are relatively hard to classify, so the infrequent one plays a less disproportionate role in driving the fit. As a result, the fit based on dropout is more stable but misses the finer structure near the decision boundary. Note that the solid gray curve, the Bayes boundary, is unaffected by dropout, per Proposition 4. But, because it is nonlinear, we obtain a different linear approximation under dropout. 6 Experiments and Discussion Synthetic Experiment Consider the following instance of the Poisson topic model: We choose ? ? the document label uniformly at random: P y (i) = 1 = 12 . Given label 0, we choose topic ? (i) = 0 deterministically; given label 1, we choose a real-valued topic ? (i) ? Exp(3). The per-topic Poisson intensities (? ) are defined as follows: 8 (? ) <(1, . . . , 1 0, . . . , 0 0, . . . , 0) if ? = 0, e ?j (? ) ?(? ) = (0, . . . , 0 ?, . . . , ? 0, . . . , 0) otherwise, = 1000 ? j P500 ?(?0 ) . (19) : | {z } | {z } | {z } ej 7 7 j 0 =1 486 The first block of 7 independent words are indicative of label 0, the second block of 7 correlated words are indicative of label 1, and the remaining 486 words are indicative of neither. 7 0.26 0.6 Log.Reg. Naive Bayes Dropout?0.8 Dropout?0.5 Dropout?0.2 0.55 0.5 Log.Reg. Naive Bayes Dropout?0.8 Dropout?0.5 Dropout?0.2 0.24 0.22 0.2 0.4 Error rate Error rate 0.45 0.35 0.3 0.18 0.16 0.25 0.14 0.2 0.12 0.15 0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Fraction of data used 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.8 (a) Polarity 2.0 dataset [17]. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Fraction of data used 0.8 1 (b) IMDB dataset [18]. Figure 3: Experiments on sentiment classification. More dropout is better relative to logistic regression for small datasets and gradually worsens with more training data. We train a model on training sets of various size n, and evaluate the resulting classifiers? error rates on a large test set. For dropout, we recalibrate the intercept on the training set. Figure 2b shows the results. There is a clear bias-variance tradeoff, with logistic regression ( = 0) and naive Bayes ( = 1) on the two ends of the spectrum. For moderate values of n, dropout improves performance, with = 0.95 (resulting in roughly 50-word documents) appearing nearly optimal for this example. Sentiment Classification We also examined the performance of dropout as a function of training set size on a document classification task. Figure 3a shows results on the Polarity 2.0 task [17], where the goal is to classify positive versus negative movie reviews on IMDB. We divided the dataset into a training set of size 1,200 and a test set of size 800, and trained a bag-of-words logistic regression model with 50,922 features. This example exhibits the same behavior as our simulation. Using a larger results in a classifier that converges faster at first, but then plateaus. We also ran experiments on a larger IMDB dataset [18] with training and test sets of size 25,000 each and approximately 300,000 features. As Figure 3b shows, the results are similar, although the training set is not large enough for the learning curves to cross. When using the full training set, all but three pairwise comparisons in Figure 3 are statistically significant (p < 0.05 for McNemar?s test). Dropout and Generative Modeling Naive Bayes and empirical risk minimization represent two divergent approaches to the classification problem. ERM is guaranteed to find the best model as n ! 1 but can have suboptimal generalization error when n is not large relative to d. Conversely, naive Bayes has very low generalization error, but suffers from asymptotic bias. In this paper, we showed that dropout behaves as a link between ERM and naive Bayes, and can sometimes achieve a more favorable bias-variance tradeoff. By training on randomly generated sub-documents rather than on whole documents, dropout implicitly codifies a generative assumption about the data, namely that excerpts from a long document should have the same label as the original document (Proposition 4). Logistic regression with dropout appears to have an intriguing connection to the naive Bayes SVM [NBSVM, 19], which is a way of using naive Bayes generative assumptions to strengthen an SVM. In a recent survey of bag-of-words classifiers for document classification, NBSVM and dropout often obtain state-of-the-art accuracies [e.g., 7]. This suggests that a good way to learn linear models for document classification is to use discriminative models that borrow strength from an approximate generative assumption to cut their generalization error. Our analysis presents an interesting contrast to other work that directly combine generative and discriminative modeling by optimizing a hybrid likelihood [20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25]. Our approach is more guarded in that we only let the generative assumption speak through pseudo-examples. Conclusion We have presented a theoretical analysis that explains how dropout training can be very helpful under a Poisson topic model assumption. Specifically, by making training examples artificially difficult, dropout improves the exponent in the generalization bound for ERM. We believe that this work is just the first step in understanding the benefits of training with artificially corrupted features, and we hope the tools we have developed can be extended to analyze other training schemes under weaker data-generating assumptions. 8 References [1] Geoffrey E Hinton, Nitish Srivastava, Alex Krizhevsky, Ilya Sutskever, and Ruslan R Salakhutdinov. Improving neural networks by preventing co-adaptation of feature detectors. arXiv:1207.0580, 2012. [2] Jimmy Ba and Brendan Frey. Adaptive dropout for training deep neural networks. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2013. [3] Ian J Goodfellow, David Warde-Farley, Mehdi Mirza, Aaron Courville, and Yoshua Bengio. Maxout networks. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, 2013. [4] Alex Krizhevsky, Ilya Sutskever, and Geoff Hinton. Imagenet classification with deep convolutional neural networks. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2012. 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Simultaneous Model Selection and Optimization through Parameter-free Stochastic Learning Francesco Orabona? Yahoo! Labs New York, USA francesco@orabona.com Abstract Stochastic gradient descent algorithms for training linear and kernel predictors are gaining more and more importance, thanks to their scalability. While various methods have been proposed to speed up their convergence, the model selection phase is often ignored. In fact, in theoretical works most of the time assumptions are made, for example, on the prior knowledge of the norm of the optimal solution, while in the practical world validation methods remain the only viable approach. In this paper, we propose a new kernel-based stochastic gradient descent algorithm that performs model selection while training, with no parameters to tune, nor any form of cross-validation. The algorithm builds on recent advancement in online learning theory for unconstrained settings, to estimate over time the right regularization in a data-dependent way. Optimal rates of convergence are proved under standard smoothness assumptions on the target function as well as preliminary empirical results. 1 Introduction Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) algorithms are gaining more and more importance in the Machine Learning community as efficient and scalable machine learning tools. There are two possible ways to use a SGD algorithm: to optimize a batch objective function, e.g. [23], or to directly optimize the generalization performance of a learning algorithm, in a stochastic approximation way [20]. The second use is the one we will consider in this paper. It allows learning over streams of data, coming Independent and Identically Distributed (IID) from a stochastic source. Moreover, it has been advocated that SGD theoretically yields the best generalization performance in a given amount of time compared to other more sophisticated optimization algorithms [6]. Yet, both in theory and in practice, the convergence rate of SGD for any finite training set critically depends on the step sizes used during training. In fact, often theoretical analysis assumes the use of optimal step sizes, rarely known in reality, and in practical applications wrong step sizes can result in arbitrarily bad performance. While in finite dimensional hypothesis spaces simple optimal strategies are known [2], in infinite dimensional spaces the only attempts to solve this problem achieve convergence only in the realizable case, e.g. [25], or assume prior knowledge of intrinsic (and unknown) characteristic of the problem [24, 29, 31, 33, 34]. The only known practical and theoretical way to achieve optimal rates in infinite Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) is to use some form of cross-validation to select the step size that corresponds to a form of model selection [26, Chapter 7.4]. However, cross-validation techniques would result in a slower training procedure partially neglecting the advantage of the stochastic training. A notable exception is the algorithm in [21], that keeps the step size constant and the number of epochs on the training set acts as a regularizer. Yet, the number of epochs is decided through the use of a validation set [21]. ? Work done mainly while at Toyota Technological Institute at Chicago. 1 Note that the situation is exactly the same in the batch setting where the regularization takes the role of the step size. Even in this case, optimal rates can be achieved only when the regularization is chosen in a problem dependent way [12, 17, 27, 32]. On a parallel route, the Online Convex Optimization (OCO) literature studies the possibility to learn in a scenario where the data are not IID [9, 36]. It turns out that this setting is strictly more difficult than the IID one and OCO algorithms can also be used to solve the corresponding stochastic problems [8]. The literature on OCO focuses on the adversarial nature of the problem and on various ways to achieve adaptivity to its unknown characteristics [1, 11, 14, 15]. This paper is in between these two different worlds: We extend tools from OCO to design a novel stochastic parameter-free algorithm able to obtain optimal finite sample convergence bounds in infinite dimensional RKHS. This new algorithm, called Parameter-free STOchastic Learning (PiSTOL), has the same complexity as the plain stochastic gradient descent procedure and implicitly achieves the model selection while training, with no parameters to tune nor the need for cross-validation. The core idea is to change the step sizes over time in a data-dependent way. As far as we know, this is the first algorithm of this kind to have provable optimal convergence rates. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. After introducing some basic notations (Sec. 2), we will explain the basic intuition of the proposed method (Sec. 3). Next, in Sec. 4 we will describe the PiSTOL algorithm and its regret bounds in the adversarial setting and in Sec. 5 we will show its convergence results in the stochastic setting. The detailed discussion of related work is deferred to Sec. 6. Finally, we show some empirical results and draw the conclusions in Sec. 7. 2 Problem Setting and Definitions Let X ? Rd a compact set and HK the RKHS associated to a Mercer kernel K : X ? X ? R implementing the inner product h? , ?iK that satisfies the reproducing property, hK(x, ?) , f (?)iK = f (x). Without loss of generality, in the following we will always assume kk(xt , ?)kK ? 1. Performance is measured w.r.t. a loss function ` : R ? R+ . We will consider L-Lipschitz losses, that is |`(x) ? `(x0 )| ? L|x ? x0 |, ?x, x0 ? R, and H-smooth losses, that is differentiable losses with the first derivative H-Lipschitz. Note that a loss can be both Lipschitz and smooth. A vector x is a subgradient of a convex function ` at v if `(u) ? `(v) ? hu ? v, xi for any u in the domain of `. The differential set of ` at v, denoted by ?`(v), is the set of all the subgradients of ` at v. 1(?) will denote the indicator function of a Boolean predicate ?. In the OCO framework, at each round t the algorithm receives a vector xt ? X , picks a ft ? HK , and pays `t (ft (xt )), where `t is a loss function. The aim of the algorithm is to minimize the PT regret, that is the difference between the cumulative loss of the algorithm, t=1 `t (ft (xt )), and the PT cumulative loss of an arbitrary and fixed competitor h ? HK , t=1 `t (h(xt )). For the statistical setting, let ? a fixed but unknown distribution on X ? Y, where Y =R [?1, 1]. A training set {xt , yt }Tt=1 will consist of samples drawn IID from ?. Denote by f? (x) := Y yd?(y|x) the regression function, where ?(?|x) is the conditional probability measure at x induced by ?. Denote by ?X the marginal probability measure on X and let L2?X be the space of square inqR tegrable functions with respect to ?X , whose norm is denoted by kf kL2? := f 2 (x)d?X . X X R Note that f? ? L2?X . Define the `-risk of f , as E ` (f ) := X ?Y `(yf (x))d?. Also, define R f?` (x) := arg mint?R Y `(yt)d?(y|x), that gives the optimal `-risk, E ` (f?` ) = inf f ?L2? E ` (f ). In X the binary classification case, define the misclassification risk of f as R(f ) := P (y 6= sign(f (x))). The infimum of the misclassification risk over all measurable f will be called Bayes risk and fc := sign(f? ), called the Bayes classifier, is such that R(fc ) = inf f ?L2? R(f ). X R Let LK : L2?X ? HK the integral operator defined by (LK f )(x) = X K(x, x0 )f (x0 )d?X (x0 ). There exists an orthonormal basis {?1 , ?2 , ? ? ? } of L2?X consisting of eigenfunctions of LK with corresponding non-negative eigenvalues {?1 , ?2 , ? ? ? } and the set {?i } is finite or ?k ? 0 when k ? ? [13, Theorem 4.7]. Since K is a Mercer kernel, LK is compact and positive. Therefore, the fractional power operator L?K is well defined for any ? ? 0. We indicate its range space by 2 Algorithm 1 Averaged SGD. Parameters: ? > 0 Initialize: f1 = 0 ? HK for t = 1, 2, . . . do Receive input vector xt ? X Predict with y?t = ft (xt ) Update ft+1 = ft + ?yt `0 (yt y?t )k(xt , ?) end for PT Return f?T = T1 t=1 ft Algorithm 2 The Kernel Perceptron. Parameters: None Initialize: f1 = 0 ? HK for t = 1, 2, . . . do Receive input vector xt ? X Predict with y?t = sign(ft (xt )) Suffer loss 1(? yt 6= yt ) Update ft+1 = ft + yt 1(? yt 6= yt )k(xt , ?) end for L?K (L2?X ) :=  f= ? X ai ?i : i=1 X i:ai 6=0  a2i ??2? < ? . (1) i 1 2 (L2?X ) = HK , that By the Mercer?s theorem, we have that LK 1 2 is every function f ? HK can be written as LK g for some g ? 2 L?X , with kf kK = kgkL2? . On the other hand, by definition X of the orthonormal basis, L0K (L2?X ) = L2?X . Thus, the smaller ? is, the bigger this space of the functions will be,1 see Fig. 1. ? 2 2 Figure 1: L?X , HK , and LK (L?X ) This space has a key role in our analysis. In particular, we will spaces, with 0 < ?1 < 21 < ?2 . assume that f?` ? L?K (L2?X ) for ? > 0, that is ?g ? L2?X : f?` = L?K g. 3 (2) A Gentle Start: ASGD, Optimal Step Sizes, and the Perceptron Consider the square loss, `(x) = (1 ? x)2 . We want to investigate the problem of training a predictor, f?T , on the training set {xt , yt }Tt=1 in a stochastic way, using each sample only once, to have E ` (f?T ) converge to E ` (f?` ). The Averaged Stochastic Gradient Descent (ASGD) in Algorithm 1 has been proposed as a fast stochastic algorithm to train predictors [35]. ASGD simply goes over all the samples once, updates the predictor with the gradients of the losses, and returns the averaged solution. For ASGD with constant step size 0 < ? ? 14 , it is immediate to show2 that E[E ` (f?T )] ? inf E ` (h) + khkK (?T )?1 + 4?. 2 h?HK (3) This result shows the link between step size and regularization: In expectation, the `-risk of the averaged predictor will be close to the `-risk of the best regularized function in HK . Moreover, the amount of regularization depends on the step size used. From (3), one might be tempted to 1 choose ? = O(T ? 2 ). With this choice, when the number of samples goes to infinity, ASGD would 1 converge to the performance of the best predictor in HK at a rate of O(T ? 2 ), only if the infimum inf h?HK E ` (h) is attained by a function in HK . Note that even with a universal kernel we only have E ` (f?` ) = inf h?HK E ` (h) but there is no guarantee that the infimum is attained [26]. On the other hand, there is a vast, and often ignored, literature examining the general case when (2) holds [4, 7, 12, 17, 24, 27, 29, 31?34]. Under this assumption, this infimum is attained only when ? ? 21 , yeth it is possible to prove convergence for ? > 0. In fact, when (2) holds it is known that i 2 minh?HK E ` (h) + khkK (?T )?1 ? E ` (f?` ) = O((?T )?2? ) [13, Proposition 8.5]. Hence, it was   2? 2? observed in [33] that setting ? = O(T ? 2?+1 ) in (3), we obtain E[E ` (f?T )]?E ` (f?` ) = O T ? 2?+1 , 1 The case that ? < 1 implicitly assumes that HK is infinite dimensional. If HK has finite dimension, ? is 0 or 1. See also the discussion in [27]. 2 The proofs of this statement and of all other presented results are in [19] . 3 1 that is the optimal rate [27, 33]. Hence, the setting ? = O(T ? 2 ) is optimal only when ? = 12 , that is f?` ? HK . In all the other cases, the convergence rate of ASGD to the optimal `-risk is suboptimal. Unfortunately, ? is typically unknown to the learner. On the other hand, using the tools to design self-tuning algorithms, e.g. [1, 14], it may be possible to design an ASGD-like algorithm, able to self-tune its step size in a data-dependent way. Indeed, we would like an algorithm able to select the optimal step size in (3), that is 1 E[E ` (f?T )] ? inf E ` (h) + min khkK (?T )?1 + 4? = inf E ` (h) + 4 khkK T ? 2 . 2 h?HK ?>0 h?HK (4) 1 In the OCO setting, this would correspond to a regret bound of the form O(khkK T 2 ). An algorithm that has this kind of guarantee is the Perceptron algorithm [22], see Algorithm 2. In fact, for the Perceptron it is possible to prove the following mistake bound [9]: v u T T uX X 2 h Number of Mistakes ? inf ` (yt h(xt )) + khkK + khkK t `h (yt h(xt )), (5) h?HK t=1 t=1 where `h is the hinge loss, `h (x) = max(1 ? x, 0). The Perceptron algorithm is similar to SGD but its behavior is independent of the step size, hence, it can be thought as always using the optimal one. Unfortunately, we are not done yet: While (5) has the right form of the bound, it is not a regret bound, rather only a mistake bound, specific for binary classification. In fact, the performance of the competitor h is measured with a different loss (hinge loss) than the performance of the algorithm (misclassification loss). For this asymmetry, the convergence when ? < 12 cannot be proved. In1 stead, we need an online algorithm whose regret bound scales as O(khkK T 2 ), returns the averaged solution, and, thanks to the equality in (4), obtains a convergence rate which would depend on 2 min khkK (?T )?1 + ?. ?>0 (6) Note that (6) has the same form of the expression in (3), but with a minimum over ?. Hence, we can expect such algorithm to always have the optimal rate of convergence. In the next section, we will present an algorithm that has this guarantee. 4 PiSTOL: Parameter-free STOchastic Learning In this section we describe the PiSTOL algorithm. The pseudo-code is in Algorithm 3. The algorithm builds on recent advancement in unconstrained online learning [16, 18, 28]. It is very similar to a SGD algorithm [35], the main difference being the computation of the solution based on the 2 past gradients, in line 4. Note that the calculation of kgt kK can be done incrementally, hence, the computational complexity is the same as ASGD in a RKHS, Algorithm 1, that is O(d) in Rd and O(t) in a RKHS. For the PiSTOL algorithm we have the following regret bound. Theorem 1. Assume that the losses `t are convex and L-Lipschitz. Let a > 0 such that a ? 2.25L. Then, for any h ? HK , the following bound on the regret holds for the PiSTOL algorithm v ! ! u ? T T ?1 u X X khkK aLT t [`t (ft (xt )) ? `t (h(xt ))] ? khkK 2a L + |st | log +1 b t=1 t=1  + b? a?1 L log (1 + T ) ,     exp( x 2 )(x+1)+2 x where ?(x) := 2 exp 1?x exp x ?x exp x2 (x + 1) + 2 . (2) This theorem shows that PiSTOL has the right dependency on khkK and T that was outlined in ? Sec. 3 and its regret bound is also optimal up to log log T terms [18]. Moreover, Theorem 1 improves on the results in [16, 18], obtaining an almost optimal regret that depends on the sum of the absolute values of the gradients, rather than on the time T . This is critical to obtain a tighter bound when the losses are H-smooth, as shown in the next Corollary. 4 Algorithm 3 PiSTOL: Parameter-free STOchastic Learning. 1: Parameters: a, b, L > 0 2: Initialize: g0 = 0 ? HK , ?0 = aL 3: for t = 1, 2, . . . do   kgt?1 k2K b 4: Set ft = gt?1 ?t?1 exp 2? t?1 5: Receive input vector xt ? X 6: Adversarial setting: Suffer loss `t (ft (xt )) 7: Receive subgradient st ? partial`t (ft (xt )) 8: Update gt = gt?1 ? st k(xt , ?) and ?t = ?t?1 + a|st | kk(xt , ?)kK 9: end for PT 10: Statistical setting: Return f?T = T1 t=1 ft Corollary 1. Under the same assumptions of Theorem 1, if the losses `t are also H-smooth, then3 ? ? ! 41 ?? T T ? ? X X 4 ? ?max khk 3 T 13 , khk T 14 ?. [`t (ft (xt )) ? `t (h(xt ))] = O ` (h(x )) + 1 t t K K ? ? t=1 t=1 This ? bound shows that, if the cumulative loss of the competitor is small, the regret can grow slower than T . It is worse than the regret bounds for smooth losses  in [9, 25] because when the cumulative  4 ? kf k 3 T 13 instead of being constant. loss of the competitor is equal to 0, the regret still grows as O K However, the PiSTOL algorithm does not require the prior knowledge of the norm of the competitor function h, as all the ones in [9, 25] do. In [19] , we also show a variant of PiSTOL for linear kernels with almost optimal learning rate for each coordinate. Contrary to other similar algorithms, e.g. [14], it is a truly parameter-free one. 5 Convergence Results for PiSTOL In this section we will use the online-to-batch conversion to study the `-risk and the misclassification risk of the averaged solution of PiSTOL. We will also use the following definition: ? has Tsybakov noise exponent q ? 0 [30] iff there exist cq > 0 such that Setting ? = q q+1 PX ({x ? X : ?s ? f? (x) ? s}) ? cq sq , ?s ? [0, 1]. (7) ? [0, 1], and c? = cq + 1, condition (7) is equivalent [32, Lemma 6.1] to: PX (sign(f (x)) 6= fc (x)) ? c? (R(f ) ? R(f? ))? , ?f ? L2?X . (8) These conditions allow for faster rates in relating the expected excess misclassification risk to the expected `-risk, as detailed in the following Lemma that is a special case of [3, Theorem 10]. Lemma 1. Let ` : R ? R+ be a convex loss function, twice differentiable at 0, with `0 (0) < 0, `00 (0) > 0, and with the smallest zero in 1. Assume condition (8) is verified. Then for the averaged solution f?T returned by PiSTOL it holds   1  c  2?? (`0 (0))2 ? E[E ` (f?T )] ? E ` (f?` ) , C = min ?`0 (0), 00 . E[R(f?T )] ? R(fc ) ? 32 C ` (0) The results in Sec. 4 give regret bounds over arbitrary sequences. We now assume to have a sequence of training samples (xt , yt )Tt=1 IID from ?. We want to train a predictor from this data, that minimizes the `-risk. To obtain such predictor we employ a so-called online-to-batch conversion [8]. For a convex loss `, we just need to run an online algorithm over the sequence of data (xt , yt )Tt=1 , using the losses `t (x) = `(yt x), ?t = 1, ? ? ? , T . The online algorithm will generate a sequence of solutions ft and the online-to-batch conversion can be obtained with a simple averaging of all PT the solutions, f?T = T1 t=1 ft , as for ASGD. The average regret bound of the online algorithm becomes a convergence guarantee for the averaged solution [8]. Hence, for the averaged solution of PiSTOL, we have the following Corollary that is immediate from Corollary 1 and the results in [8]. 3 ? notation hides polylogarithmic terms. For brevity, the O 5 Corollary 2. Assume that the samples (xt , yt )Tt=1 are IID from ?, and `t (x) = `(yt x). Then, under the assumptions of Corollary 1, the averaged solution of PiSTOL satisfies  n 4  1 o ? max khk 3 T ? 32 , khk T ? 43 T E ` (h) + 1 4 E[E ` (f?T )] ? inf E ` (h) + O . K K h?HK ? ? 32 ) convergence rate to the ?-risk of the best predictor in HK , if the best Hence, we have a O(T ? ? 12 ) otherwise. Contrary to similar results in literature, predictor has ?-risk equal to zero, and O(T e.g. [25], we do not have to restrict the infimum over a ball of fixed radius in HK and our bounds 2 ? depends on O(khk K ) rather than O(khkK ), e.g. [35]. The advantage of not restricting the competitor in a ball is clear: The performance is always close to the best function in HK , regardless of its norm. The logarithmic terms are exactly the price we pay for not knowing in advance the norm of 1 ? ? 2(2??) the optimal solution. For binary classification using Lemma 1, we can also prove a O(T ) bound on the excess misclassification risk in the realizable setting, that is if f?` ? HK . It would be possible to obtain similar results with other algorithms, as the one in [25], using a doubling-trick approach [9]. However, this would result most likely in an algorithm not useful in any practical application. Moreover, the doubling-trick itself would not be trivial, for example the one used in [28] achieves a suboptimal regret and requires to start from scratch the learning over two different variables, further reducing its applicability in any real-world application. 2 ? As anticipated in Sec. 3, we now show that the dependency on O(khk K ) rather than on O(khkK ) ? 2 ` gives us the optimal rates of convergence in the general case that f? ? LK (L?X ), without the need to tune any parameter. This is our main result. Theorem 2. Assume that the samples (xt , yt )Tt=1 are IID from ?, (2) holds for ? ? 12 , and `t (x) = `(yt x). Then, under the assumptions of Corollary 1, the averaged solution of PiSTOL satisfies  n o 2? 2? ? ? max (E ` (f?` ) + 1/T ) 2?+1 T ? 2?+1 , T ? ?+1 . ? If ? ? 31 then E[E ` (f?T )] ? E ` (f?` ) ? O ? If 1 3 < ? ? 12 , then E[E ` (f?T )] ? E ` (f?` )  n o ? 2? 3??1 2? ? max (E ` (f?` ) + 1/T ) 2?+1 T ? 2?+1 , (E ` (f?` ) + 1/T ) 4? T ? 21 , T ? ?+1 ?O . Excess ?-risk bound 1 10 0 Bound 10 ?1 10 ?2 10 E ? (f?? ) = 0 E ? (f?? ) = 0.1 E ? (f?? ) = 1 ?3 10 1 10 2 10 3 10 4 10 T 5 10 6 10 Figure 2: Upper bound on the excess `-risk of PiSTOL for ? = 12 . 7 10 This theorem guarantees consistency w.r.t. the `-risk. We have that the rate of convergence to the optimal `-risk 2? 3? ? ? 2?+1 ) other? ? 2?+1 ), if E ` (f?` ) = 0, and O(T is O(T wise. However, for any finite T the rate of convergence ?+1 2? ? ? ?+1 ) for any T = O(E ` (f?` )? 2? ). In other is O(T words, we can expect a first regime at faster convergence, that saturates when the number of samples becomes big enough, see Fig. 2. This is particularly important because often in practical applications the features and the kernel are chosen to have good performance, meaning low optimal `-risk. Using Lemma 1, we have that the excess mis2? ? ? (2?+1)(2??) ) if E ` (f?` ) 6= 0, and classification risk is O(T 2? ? ? (?+1)(2??) ) if E ` (f?` ) = 0. It is also worth noting O(T that, being the algorithm designed to work in the adversarial setting, we expect its performance to be robust to small deviations from the IID scenario. Also, note that the guarantees of Corollary 2 and Theorem 2 hold simultaneously. Hence, the theoretical performance of PiSTOL is always better than both the ones of SGD with the step sizes tuned 1 with the knowledge of ? or with the agnostic choice ? = O(T ? 2 ). In [19] , we also show another convergence result assuming a different smoothness condition. Regarding the optimality of our results, lower bounds for the square loss are known [27] under assumption (2) and further assuming that the eigenvalues of LK have a polynomial decay, that is (?i )i?N ? i?b , b ? 1. 6 (9) Condition (9) can be interpreted as an effective dimension of the space. It always holds for b = 1 [27] and this is the condition we consider that is usually denoted as capacity independent, see 2? the discussion in [21, 33]. In the capacity independent setting, the lower bound is O(T ? 2?+1 ), that matches the asymptotic rates in Theorem 2, up to logarithmic terms. Even if we require the loss function to be Lipschitz and smooth, it is unlikely that different lower bounds can be proved in our setting. Note that the lower bounds are worst case w.r.t. E ` (f?` ), hence they do not cover the case E ` (f?` ) = 0, where we get even better rates. Hence, the optimal regret bound of PiSTOL in Theorem 1 translates to an optimal convergence rate for its averaged solution, up to logarithmic terms, establishing a novel link between these two areas. 6 Related Work The approach of stochastically minimizing the `-risk of the square loss in a RKHS has been pioneered by [24]. The rates were improved, but still suboptimal, in [34], with a general approach for locally Lipschitz loss functions in the origin. The optimal bounds, matching the ones we obtain for E ` (f?` ) 6= 0, were obtained for ? > 0 in expectation by [33]. Their rates also hold for ? > 12 , while our rates, as the ones in [27], saturate at ? = 21 . In [29], high probability bounds were proved in the case that 12 ? ? ? 1. Note that, while in the range ? ? 12 , that implies f? ? HK , it is possible to prove high probability bounds [4, 7, 27, 29], the range 0 < ? < 12 considered in this paper is very tricky, see the discussion in [27]. In this range no high probability bounds are known without additional assumptions. All the previous approaches require the knowledge of ?, while our algorithm is parameter-free. Also, we obtain faster rates for the excess `-risk, when E ` (f?` ) = 0. Another important difference is that we can use any smooth and Lipschitz loss, useful for example to generate sparse solutions, while the optimal results in [29, 33] are specific for the square loss. For finite dimensional spaces and self-concordant losses, an optimal parameter-free stochastic algorithm has been proposed in [2]. However, the convergence result seems specific to finite dimension. The guarantees obtained from worst-case online algorithms, for example [25], have typically optimal convergence only w.r.t. the performance of the best in HK , see the discussion in [33]. Instead, all the guarantees on the misclassification loss w.r.t. a convex `-risk of a competitor, e.g. the Perceptron?s guarantee, are inherently weaker than the presented ones. To see why, assume that the classifier returned by the algorithm after seeing T samples is fT , these bounds are of the form of 1 2 R(fT ) ? E ` (h) + O(T ? 2 (khkK + 1)). For simplicity, assume the use of the hinge loss so that easy calculations show that f?` = fc and E ` (f?` ) = 2R(fc ). Hence, even in the easy case that fc ? HK , 1 2 we have R(fT ) ? 2R(fc ) + O(T ? 2 (kfc kK + 1)), i.e. no convergence to the Bayes risk. In the batch setting, the same optimal rates were obtained by [4, 7] for the square loss, in high probability, for ? > 12 . In [27], using an additional assumption on the infinity norm of the functions in HK , they give high probability bounds also in the range 0 < ? ? 12 . The optimal tuning of the regularization parameter is achieved by cross-validation. Hence, we match the optimal rates of a batch algorithm, without the need to use validation methods. In Sec. 3 we saw that the core idea to have the optimal rate was to have a classifier whose performance is close to the best regularized solution, where the regularizer is khkK . Changing the 2 q regularization term from the standard khkK to khkK with q ? 1 is not new in the batch learning literature. It has been first proposed for classification by [5], and for regression by [17]. Note that, in both cases no computational methods to solve the optimization problem were proposed. Moreover, q in [27] it was proved that all the regularizers of the form khkK with q ? 1 gives optimal convergence rates bound for the square loss, given an appropriate setting of the regularization weight. In particular, [27, Corollary 6] proves that, using the square loss and under assumptions (2) and (9), 2?+q(1??) q the optimal weight for the regularizer khkK is T ? 2?+2/b . This implies a very important consequence, not mentioned in that paper: In the the capacity independent setting, that is b = 1, if we 1 use the regularizer khkK , the optimal regularization weight is T ? 2 , independent of the exponent of the range space (1) where f? belongs. Moreover, in the same paper it was argued that ?From an algorithmic point of view however, q = 2 is currently the only feasible case, which in turn makes SVMs the method of choice?. Indeed, in this paper we give a parameter-free efficient procedure to 7 a9a, Gaussian Kernel 0.7 0.2 SVM, 5?folds CV PiSTOL, averaged solution 0.21 0.2 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.16 SVM, 5?folds CV PiSTOL, averaged solution 0.6 Percentage of Errors on the Test Set 0.22 SVM, 5?folds CV PiSTOL, averaged solution 0.19 Percentage of Errors on the Test Set 0.23 Percentage of Errors on the Test Set news20.binary, Linear Kernel SensIT Vehicle, Gaussian Kernel 0.24 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.15 0.11 1 10 2 3 10 10 Number of Training Samples 4 10 0.1 2 10 3 4 10 10 Number of Training Samples 0 2 10 3 10 Number of Training Samples 4 10 Figure 3: Average test errors and standard deviations of PiSTOL and SVM w.r.t. the number of training samples over 5 random permutations, on a9a, SensIT Vehicle, and news20.binary. train predictors with smooth losses, that implicitly uses the khkK regularizer. Thanks to this, the regularization parameter does not need to be set using prior knowledge of the problem. 7 Discussion Borrowing from OCO and statistical learning theory tools, we have presented the first parameterfree stochastic learning algorithm that achieves optimal rates of convergence w.r.t. the smoothness of the optimal predictor. In particular, the algorithm does not require any validation method for the model selection, rather it automatically self-tunes in an online and data-dependent way. Even if this is mainly a theoretical work, we believe that it might also have a big potential in the applied world. Hence, as a proof of concept on the potentiality of this method we have also run a few preliminary experiments, to compare the performance of PiSTOL to an SVM using 5-folds cross-validation to select the regularization weight parameter. The experiments were repeated with 5 random shuffles, showing the average and standard deviations over three datasets.4 The latest version of LIBSVM was used to train the SVM [10]. We have that PiSTOL closely tracks the performance of the tuned SVM when a Gaussian kernel is used. Also, contrary to the common intuition, the stochastic approach of PiSTOL seems to have an advantage over the tuned SVM when the number of samples is small. Probably, cross-validation is a poor approximation of the generalization performance in that regime, while the small sample regime does not affect at all the analysis of PiSTOL. Note that in the case of News20, a linear kernel is used over the vectors of size 1355192. The finite dimensional case is not covered by our theorems, still we see that PiSTOL seems to converge at the same rate of SVM, just with a worse constant. It is important to note that the total time the 5-folds cross-validation plus the training with the selected parameter for the SVM on 58000 samples of SensIT Vehicle takes ? 6.5 hours, while our unoptimized Matlab implementation of PiSTOL less than 1 hour, ? 7 times faster. The gains in speed are similar on the other two datasets. This is the first work we know of in this line of research of stochastic adaptive algorithms for statistical learning, hence many questions are still open. In particular, it is not clear if high probability bounds can be obtained, as the empirical results hint, without additional hypothesis. Also, we only ` proved convergence w.r.t. the `-risk, however for ? ? 21 we know that f? ? HK , hence it would be ` possible to prove the stronger convergence results on fT ? f? K , e.g. [29]. Probably this would require a major change in the proof techniques used. Finally, it is not clear if the regret bound in ? ?1 ) Theorem 1 can be improved to depend on the squared gradients. This would result in a O(T 1 ` ` bound for the excess `-risk for smooth losses when E (f? ) = 0 and ? = 2 . Acknowledgments I am thankful to Lorenzo Rosasco for introducing me to the beauty of the operator L?K and to Brendan McMahan for fruitful discussions. 4 Datasets available at http://www.csie.ntu.edu.tw/?cjlin/libsvmtools/datasets/. The precise details to replicate the experiments are in [19] . 8 References [1] P. Auer, N. Cesa-Bianchi, and C. Gentile. Adaptive and self-confident on-line learning algorithms. J. Comput. Syst. Sci., 64(1):48?75, 2002. [2] F. Bach and E. Moulines. Non-strongly-convex smooth stochastic approximation with convergence rate O(1/n). In NIPS, pages 773?781, 2013. [3] P. L. Bartlett, M. I. Jordan, and J. D. McAuliffe. Convexity, Classification, and Risk Bounds. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 101(473):138?156, March 2006. [4] F. Bauer, S. Pereverzev, and L. Rosasco. On regularization algorithms in learning theory. J. Complexity, 23(1):52?72, February 2007. [5] G. Blanchard, O. Bousquet, and P. Massart. Statistical performance of support vector machines. Ann. Statist., 36(2):489?531, 04 2008. [6] L. Bottou and O. Bousquet. The tradeoffs of large scale learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, volume 20, pages 161?168. NIPS Foundation, 2008. [7] A. Caponnetto and E. De Vito. Optimal rates for the regularized least-squares algorithm. Foundations of Computational Mathematics, 7(3):331?368, 2007. [8] N. Cesa-Bianchi, A. Conconi, and C. Gentile. On the generalization ability of on-line learning algorithms. IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory, 50(9):2050?2057, 2004. [9] N. Cesa-Bianchi and G. Lugosi. Prediction, learning, and games. Cambridge University Press, 2006. [10] C.-C. Chang and C.-J. Lin. LIBSVM: a library for support vector machines, 2001. Software available at http://www.csie.ntu.edu.tw/?cjlin/libsvm. [11] K. Chaudhuri, Y. Freund, and D. J. Hsu. A parameter-free hedging algorithm. In Advances in neural information processing systems, pages 297?305, 2009. [12] D.-R. Chen, Q. Wu, Y. Ying, and D.-X. Zhou. Support vector machine soft margin classifiers: Error analysis. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 5:1143?1175, 2004. [13] F. Cucker and D. X. Zhou. Learning Theory: An Approximation Theory Viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA, 2007. [14] J. C. Duchi, E. Hazan, and Y. Singer. Adaptive subgradient methods for online learning and stochastic optimization. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 12:2121?2159, 2011. [15] H. Luo and R. E. Schapire. A drifting-games analysis for online learning and applications to boosting. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2014. [16] H. B. McMahan and F. Orabona. Unconstrained online linear learning in Hilbert spaces: Minimax algorithms and normal approximations. In COLT, 2014. [17] S. Mendelson and J. Neeman. Regularization in kernel learning. Ann. Statist., 38(1):526?565, 02 2010. [18] F. Orabona. Dimension-free exponentiated gradient. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 1806?1814. Curran Associates, Inc., 2013. [19] F. Orabona. Simultaneous model selection and optimization through parameter-free stochastic learning, 2014. arXiv:1406.3816. [20] H. Robbins and S. Monro. A stochastic approximation method. Ann. Math. Stat., 22:400?407, 1951. [21] L. Rosasco, A. Tacchetti, and S. Villa. Regularization by early stopping for online learning algorithms, 2014. arXiv:1405.0042. [22] F. Rosenblatt. The Perceptron: A probabilistic model for information storage and organization in the brain. Psychological Review, 65:386?407, 1958. [23] S. Shalev-Shwartz, Y. Singer, and N. Srebro. Pegasos: Primal Estimated sub-GrAdient SOlver for SVM. In Proc. of ICML, pages 807?814, 2007. [24] S. Smale and Y. Yao. Online learning algorithms. Found. Comp. Math, 6:145?170, 2005. [25] N. Srebro, K. Sridharan, and A. Tewari. Smoothness, low noise and fast rates. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 23, pages 2199?2207. Curran Associates, Inc., 2010. [26] I. Steinwart and A. Christmann. Support Vector Machines. Springer, 2008. [27] I. Steinwart, D. R. Hush, and C. Scovel. Optimal rates for regularized least squares regression. In COLT, 2009. [28] M. Streeter and B. McMahan. No-regret algorithms for unconstrained online convex optimization. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25, pages 2402?2410. Curran Associates, Inc., 2012. [29] P. Tarr`es and Y. Yao. Online learning as stochastic approximation of regularization paths, 2013. arXiv:1103.5538. [30] A. B. Tsybakov. Optimal aggregation of classifiers in statistical learning. Ann. Statist., 32:135?166, 2004. [31] Y. Yao. On complexity issues of online learning algorithms. IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory, 56(12):6470?6481, 2010. [32] Y. Yao, L. Rosasco, and A. Caponnetto. On early stopping in gradient descent learning. Constr. Approx., 26:289?315, 2007. [33] Y. Ying and M. Pontil. Online gradient descent learning algorithms. Foundations of Computational Mathematics, 8(5):561?596, 2008. [34] Y. Ying and D.-X. Zhou. Online regularized classification algorithms. IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory, 52(11):4775?4788, 2006. [35] T. Zhang. Solving large scale linear prediction problems using stochastic gradient descent algorithms. In Proc. of ICML, pages 919?926, New York, NY, USA, 2004. ACM. [36] M. Zinkevich. Online convex programming and generalized infinitesimal gradient ascent. In Proc. of ICML, pages 928?936, 2003. 9
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On the Statistical Consistency of Plug-in Classifiers for Non-decomposable Performance Measures Harikrishna Narasimhan? , Rohit Vaish? , Shivani Agarwal Department of Computer Science and Automation Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore ? 560012, India {harikrishna, rohit.vaish, shivani}@csa.iisc.ernet.in Abstract We study consistency properties of algorithms for non-decomposable performance measures that cannot be expressed as a sum of losses on individual data points, such as the F-measure used in text retrieval and several other performance measures used in class imbalanced settings. While there has been much work on designing algorithms for such performance measures, there is limited understanding of the theoretical properties of these algorithms. Recently, Ye et al. (2012) showed consistency results for two algorithms that optimize the F-measure, but their results apply only to an idealized setting, where precise knowledge of the underlying probability distribution (in the form of the ?true? posterior class probability) is available to a learning algorithm. In this work, we consider plug-in algorithms that learn a classifier by applying an empirically determined threshold to a suitable ?estimate? of the class probability, and provide a general methodology to show consistency of these methods for any non-decomposable measure that can be expressed as a continuous function of true positive rate (TPR) and true negative rate (TNR), and for which the Bayes optimal classifier is the class probability function thresholded suitably. We use this template to derive consistency results for plug-in algorithms for the F-measure and for the geometric mean of TPR and precision; to our knowledge, these are the first such results for these measures. In addition, for continuous distributions, we show consistency of plug-in algorithms for any performance measure that is a continuous and monotonically increasing function of TPR and TNR. Experimental results confirm our theoretical findings. 1 Introduction In many real-world applications, the performance measure used to evaluate a learning model is non-decomposable and cannot be expressed as a summation or expectation of losses on individual data points; this includes, for example, the F-measure used in information retrieval [1], and several combinations of the true positive rate (TPR) and true negative rate (TNR) used in class imbalanced classification settings [2?5] (see Table 1). While there has been much work in the last two decades in designing learning algorithms for such performance measures [6?14], our understanding of the statistical consistency of these methods is rather limited. Recently, Ye et al. (2012) showed consistency results for two algorithms for the F-measure [15] that use the ?true? posterior class probability to make predictions on instances. These results implicitly assume that the given learning algorithm has precise knowledge of the underlying probability distribution (in the form of the true posterior class probability); this assumption does not however hold in most real-world settings. In this paper, we consider a family of methods that construct a plug-in classifier by applying an empirically determined threshold to a suitable ?estimate? of the class probability (obtained using a model learned from a sample drawn from the underlying distribution). We provide a general method? Both authors contributed equally to this paper. 1 Table 1: Performance measures considered in our study. Here ? ? (0, ?) and p = P(y = 1). ? Each performance measure here can be expressed as PD [h] = ?(TPRD [h], TNRD [h], p). The last column contains the assumption on the distribution D under which the plug-in algorithm considered in this work is statistically consistent w.r.t. a performance measure (details in Sections 3 and 5). Ref. ?(u, v, p) [17?19] u+v 2 Measure AM (1-BER) Definition (TPR + TNR)/2 F? -measure G-Mean (GM) H-Mean (HM) ? (1 + ? 2 )/ Prec + ? TPR ? Prec ? TPR ? TNR  1 1 2/ TPR + TNR Q-Mean (QM) 1 ? ((1 ? TPR)2 + (1 ? TNR)2 )/2 [5] G-TP/PR 2 1 TPR  [1, 19] [3] [2, 3] [4] (1+? 2 )pu p+? 2 (pu+(1?p)(1?v)) q ? pu2 pu+(1?p)(1?v) uv 2uv u+v 1? (1?u)2 +(1?v)2 2 Assumption on D Assumption A Assumption A Assumption A Assumption B Assumption B Assumption B ology to show statistical consistency of these methods (under a mild assumption on the underlying distribution) for any performance measure that can be expressed as a continuous function of the TPR and TNR and the class proportion, and for which the Bayes optimal classifier is the class probability function thresholded at a suitable point. We use our proof template to derive consistency results for the F-measure (using a recent result by [15] on the Bayes optimal classifier for F-measure), and the geometric mean of TPR and precision; to our knowledge, these are the first such results for these performance measures. Using our template, we also obtain a recent consistency result by Menon et al. [16] for the arithmetic mean of TPR and TNR. In addition, we show that for continuous distributions, the optimal classifier for any performance measure that is a continuous and monotonically increasing function of TPR and TNR is necessarily of the requisite thresholded form, thus establishing consistency of the plug-in algorithms for all such performance measures. Experiments on real and synthetic data confirm our theoretical findings, and show that the plug-in methods considered here are competitive with the state-of-the-art SVMperf method [12] for non-decomposable measures. Related Work. Much of the work on non-decomposable performance measures in binary classification settings has focused on the F-measure; these include the empirical plug-in algorithm considered here [6], cost-weighted versions of SVM [9], methods that optimize convex and non-convex approximations to F-measure [10?14], and decision-theoretic methods that learn a class probability estimate and compute predictions that maximize the expected F-measure on a test set [7?9]. While there has been considerable amount of work on consistency of algorithms for univariate performance measures [16, 20?22], theoretical results on non-decomposable measures have been limited to characterizing the Bayes optimal classifier for F-measure [15, 23, 24], and some consistency results for F-measure for certain idealized versions of the empirical plug-in and decision theoretic methods that have access to the true class probability [15]. There has also been some work on algorithms that optimize F-measure in multi-label classification settings [25, 26] and consistency results for these methods [26, 27], but these results do not apply to the binary classification setting that we consider here; in particular, in a binary classification setting, the F-measure that one seeks to optimize is a single number computed over the entire training set, while in a multi-label setting, the goal is to optimize the mean F-measure computed over multiple labels on individual instances. Organization. We start with some preliminaries in Section 2. Section 3 presents our main result on consistency of plug-in algorithms for non-decomposable performance measures that are functions of TPR and TNR. Section 4 contains application of our proof template to the AM, F? and G-TP/PR measures, and Section 5 contains results under continuous distributions for performance measures that are monotonic in TPR and TNR. Section 6 describes our experimental results on real and synthetic data sets. Proofs not provided in the main text can be found in the Appendix. 2 Preliminaries Problem Setup. Let X be any instance space. Given a training sample S = n ((x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xn , yn )) ? (X ? {?1}) , our goal is to learn a binary classifier b hS : X ? {?1} to make predictions for new instances drawn from X . Assume all examples (both training and test) are drawn iid according to some unknown probability distribution D on X ? {?1}. Let ?(x) = P(y = 1|x) and p = P(y = 1) (both under D). We will be interested in settings where the performance of b hS is measured via a non-decomposable performance measure P : {?1}X ? R+ , which cannot be expressed as a sum or expectation of losses on individual examples. 2 Non-decomposable performance measures. Let us first define the following quantities associated with a binary classifier h : X ? {?1}:  True Positive Rate / Recall TPRD [h] = P h(x) = 1 | y = 1  True Negative Rate TNRD [h] = P h(x) = ?1 | y = ?1  pTPRD [h] Precision PrecD [h] = P y = 1 | h(x) = 1 = pTPRD [h]+(1?p)(1?TNR . D [h]) In this paper, we will consider non-decomposable performance measures that can be expressed as a function of the TPR and TNR and the class proportion p. Specifically, let ? : [0, 1]3 ? R+ ; then the ? ?-performance of h w.r.t. D, which we will denote as PD [h], will be defined as: ? PD [h] = ?(TPRD [h], TNRD [h], p). For example, for ? > 0, the F? -measure of h can be defined through the func(1+? 2 )pu , which gives tion ?F? : [0, 1]3 ? R+ given by ?F? (u, v, p) = p+? 2 (pu+(1?p)(1?v))   F? ?2 1 2 PD [h] = (1 + ? )/ PrecD [h] + TPRD [h] . Table 1 gives several examples of non-decomposable performance measures that are used in practice. We will also find it useful to consider empirical verb? [h]: sions of these performance measures calculated from a sample S, which we will denote as P S bS? [h] = ?(TPR d S [h], TNR d S [h], pbS ), P (1) Pn where pbS = n1 i=1 1(yi = 1) is an empirical estimate of p, and n n X X 1 d S [h] = 1 d S [h] = TPR 1(h(xi ) = 1, yi = 1); TNR 1(h(xi ) = ?1, yi = ?1) pbS n i=1 (1 ? pbS )n i=1 are the empirical TPR and TNR respectively.1 ? ?-consistency. We will be interested in the optimum value of PD over all classifiers: ?,? PD = sup h:X ? {?1} ? PD [h]. In particular, one can define the ?-regret of a classifier h as: ?,? ? regret? ? PD [h]. D [h] = PD A learning algorithm is then said to be ?-consistent if the ?-regret of the classifier b hS output by the algorithm on seeing training sample S converges in probability to 0:2 P regret? [b hS ] ? ? 0. D Class of Threshold Classifiers. We will find it useful to define for any function f : X ? [0, 1], the set of classifiers obtained by assigning a threshold to f : Tf = {sign ? (f ? t) | t ? [0, 1]}, where sign(u) = 1 if u > 0 and ?1 otherwise. For a given f , we shall also define the thresholds corresponding to maximum population and empirical measures respectively (when they exist) as: b? [sign ? (f ? t)]. t? ? argmax P ? [sign ? (f ? t)]; b tS,f,? ? argmax P D,f,? D S t?[0,1] t?[0,1] Plug-in Algorithms and Result of Ye et al. (2012). In this work, we consider a family of plug-in algorithms, which divide the input sample S into samples (S1 , S2 ), use a suitable class probability estimation (CPE) algorithm to learn a class probability estimator ?bS1 : X ? [0, 1] from S1 , and output a classifier b hS (x) = sign(b ?S1 (x) ? b tS2 ,b?S1 ,? ), where b tS2 ,b?S1 ,? is a threshold that maximizes the empirical performance measure on S2 (see Algorithm 1). We note that this approach is different from the idealized plug-in method analyzed by Ye et al. (2012) in the context of F-measure optimization, where a classifier is learned by assigning an empirical threshold to the ?true? class probability function ? [15]; the consistency result therein is useful only if precise knowledge of ? is available to a learning algorithm, which is not the case in most practical settings. L1 -consistency of a CPE algorithm. Let C be a CPE algorithm, and for any sample S, denote  P  ?bS = C(S). We will say C is L1 -consistent w.r.t. a distribution D if Ex ?bS (x) ? ?(x) ? ? 0. 1 In the setting considered here, the goal is to maximize a (non-decomposable) function of expectations; we note that this is different from the decision-theoretic setting in [15], where one looks at the expectation of a non-decomposable performance measure on n examples, and seeks to maximize its limiting value as n ? ?. P 2 We say ?(S) converges in probability to a ? R, written as ?(S) ? ? a, if ? > 0, PS?Dn (|?(S) ? a| ? ) ? 0 as n ? ?. 3 Algorithm 1 Plug-in with Empirical Threshold for Performance Measure P ? : 2X ? R+ 1: Input: S = ((x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xn , yn )) ? (X ? {?1})n 2: Parameter: ? ? (0, 1) 3: Let S1 = ((x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xn1 , yn1 )), S2 = ((xn1 +1 , yn1 +1 ), . . . , (xn , yn )), where n1 = dn?e n X 4: Learn ? bS1 = C(S1 ), where C : ?? n=1 (X ? {?1}) ? [0, 1] is a suitable CPE algorithm b? [sign ? (b 5: b tS ,b? ,? ? argmax P ?S ? t)] 2 S1 t?[0,1] S2 1 6: Output: Classifier b hS (x) = sign(b ?S1 (x) ? b tS2 ,b?S1 ,? ) A Generic Proof Template for ?-consistency of Plug-in Algorithms 3 We now give a general result for showing consistency of the plug-in method in Algorithm 1 for any performance measure that can be expressed as a continuous function of TPR and TNR, and for which the Bayes optimal classifier is obtained by suitably thresholding the class probability function. Assumption A. We will say that a probability distribution D on X ? {?1} satisfies Assumption A w.r.t. ? if t?D,?,? exists and is in (0, 1), and the cumulative distribution functions of the random variable ?(x) conditioned on y = 1 and on y = ?1, P(?(x) ? z | y = 1) and P(?(x) ? z | y = ?1), are continuous at z = t?D,?,? .3 Note that this assumption holds for any distribution D for which ?(x) conditioned on y = 1 and on y = ?1 is continuous, and also for any D for which ?(x) conditioned on y = 1 and on y = ?1 is mixed, provided the optimum threshold t?D,?,? for P ? exists and is not a point of discontinuity. Under the above assumption, and assuming that the CPE algorithm used in Algorithm 1 is L1 consistent (which holds for any algorithm that uses a regularized empirical risk minimization of a proper loss [16, 28]), we have our main consistency result. Theorem 1 (?-consistency of Algorithm 1). Let ? : [0, 1]3 ? R+ be continuous in each argument. Let D be a probability distribution on X ? {?1} that satisfies Assumption A w.r.t. ?, and for which the Bayes optimal classifier is of the form h?,? (x) = sign ? (?(x) ? t?D,?,? ). If the CPE algorithm C in Algorithm 1 is L1 -consistent, then Algorithm 1 is ?-consistent w.r.t. D. Before we prove the above theorem, we will find it useful to state the following lemmas. In our first lemma, we state that the TPR and TNR of a classifier constructed by thresholding a suitable class probability estimate at a fixed c ? (0, 1) converge respectively to the TPR and TNR of the classifier obtained by thresholding the true class probability function ? at c. Lemma 2 (Convergence of TPR and TNR for fixed threshold). Let D be a distribution on X ? {?1}. Let ?bS : X ? [0, 1] be generated by an L1 -consistent CPE algorithm. Let c ? (0, 1) be an apriori fixed constant such that the cumulative distribution functions P(?(x) ? z | y = 1) and P(?(x) ? z | y = ?1) are continuous at z = c. We then have P TPRD [sign ? (b ?S ? c)] ? ? TPRD [sign ? (? ? c)]; P TNRD [sign ? (b ?S ? c)] ? ? TNRD [sign ? (? ? c)]. As a corollary to the above lemma, we have a similar result for P ? . Lemma 3 (Convergence of P ? for fixed threshold). Let ? : [0, 1]3 ? R+ be continuous in each argument. Under the statement of Lemma 2, we have P ? ? PD [sign ? (b ?S ? c)] ? ? PD [sign ? (? ? c)]. We next state a result showing convergence of the empirical performance measure to its population value for a fixed classifier, and a uniform convergence result over a class of thresholded classifiers. Lemma 4 (Concentration result for P ? ). Let ? : [0, 1]3 ? R+ be continuous in each argument. Then for any fixed h : X ? {?1}, and  > 0,   ? b? [h] ?  ? 0 as n ? ?. PS?Dn PD [h] ? P S 3 For simplicity, we assume that t?D,?,? is in (0, 1); our results easily extend to the case when t?D,?,? ? [0, 1]. 4 Lemma 5 (Uniform convergence of P ? over threshold classifiers). Let ? : [0, 1]3 ? R+ be continuous in each argument. For any f : X ? [0, 1] and  > 0, ! o [ n ? bS? [?] ?  ? 0 as n ? ?. [?] ? P PS?Dn PD ??Tf We are now ready to prove our main theorem. ? Proof of Theorem 1. Recall t?D,?,? ? argmax PD [sign ? (? ? t)] exists by Assumption A. In the t?[0,1] following, we shall use t? in the place of t?D,?,? and b tS2 ,S1 in the place of b tS2 ,b?S1 ,? . We have regret? D [hS ] = regret? ?S1 ? b tS2 ,S1 )] D [sign ? (b ?,? ? PD ? PD [sign ? (b ?S1 ? b tS2 ,S1 )] = ? ? PD [sign ? (? ? t? )] ? PD [sign ? (b ?S1 ? b tS2 ,S1 )], = which follows from the assumption on the Bayes optimal classifier for P ? . Adding and subtracting empirical and population versions of P ? computed on certain classifiers, ? ? = PD [sign ? (? ? t? )] ? PD [sign ? (b ?S1 ? t? )] {z } | regret? ?S1 ? b tS2 ,S1 )] D [sign ? (b term1 + ? PD [sign | bS? [sign ? (b ? (b ?S1 ? t? )] ? P ?S1 ? b tS2 ,S1 )] {z 2 } term2 ? bS? [sign ? (b +P ?S1 ? b tS2 ,S1 )] ? PD [sign ? (b ?S1 ? b tS2 ,S1 )] . {z } | 2 term3 We now show convergence for each of the above terms. Applying Lemma 3 with c = t? (by P Assumption A, t? ? (0, 1) and satisfies the necessary continuity assumption), we have term1 ? ? 0. b For term2 , from the definition of threshold tS2 ,S1 (see Algorithm 1), we have term2 Then for any  > 0,  PS?Dn term2 ?  = = ? ? ? b? [sign ? (b PD [sign ? (b ?S1 ? t? )] ? P ?S1 ? t? )]. S2 (2)  PS1 ?Dn1 , S2 ?Dn?n1 term2 ?  h i ES1 PS2 |S1 term2 ?  h  i ? ? bS? [sign ? (b ES1 PS2 |S1 PD [sign ? (b ?S1 ? t? )] ? P ? ?  ? t )] S1 2 ? 0 as n ? ?, where the third step follows from Eq. (2), and the last step follows by applying, for a fixed S1 , the concentration result in Lemma 4 with h = sign ? (b ?S1 ? t? ) (given continuity of ?). Finally, for term3 , we have for any  > 0, h  i  ? bS? [sign ? (b b b PS term3 ?  = ES1 PS2 |S1 P ? ? t )] ? P [sign ? (b ? ? t )] ?  S S ,S S S ,S D 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 " !# o [ n b? [?] ? P ? [?] ?  P ? ES1 PS |S S D 2 1 2 ??T?bS 1 ? 0 as n ? ?, where the last step follows by applying the uniform convergence result in Lemma 5 over the class of thresholded classifiers T?bS1 = {sign ? (b ?S1 ? t) | t ? [0, 1]} (for a fixed S1 ). 4 Consistency of Plug-in Algorithms for AM, F? , and G-TP/PR We now use the result in Theorem 1 to establish consistency of the plug-in algorithms for the arithmetic mean of TPR and TNR, the F? -measure, and the geometric mean of TPR and precision. 5 4.1 Consistency for AM-measure The arithmetic mean of TPR and TNR (AM) or one minus the balanced error rate (BER) is a widelyused performance measure in class imbalanced binary classification settings [17?19]: TPRD [h] + TNRD [h] . 2 It can be shown that Bayes optimal classifier for the AM-measure is of the form hAM,? (x) = sign ? (?(x) ? p) (see for example [16]), and that the threshold chosen by the plugin method in Algorithm 1 for the AM-measure is an empirical estimate of p. In recent work, Menon et al. show that this plug-in method is consistent w.r.t. the AM-measure [16]; their proof makes use of a decomposition of the AM-measure in terms of a certain cost-sensitive error and a result of [22] on regret bounds for cost-sensitive classification. We now use our result in Theorem 1 to give an alternate route for showing AM-consistency of this plug-in method.4 Theorem 6 (Consistency of Algorithm 1 w.r.t. AM-measure). Let ? = ?AM . Let D be a distribution on X ? {?1} that satisfies Assumption A w.r.t. ?AM . If the CPE algorithm C in Algorithm 1 is L1 -consistent, then Algorithm 1 is AM-consistent w.r.t. D. AM PD [h] = Proof. We apply Theorem 1 noting that ?AM (u, v, p) = (u+v)/2 is continuous in all its arguments, and that the Bayes optimal classifier for P AM is of the requisite thresholded form. 4.2 Consistency for F? -measure The F? -measure or the (weighted) harmonic mean of TPR and precision is a popular performance measure used in information retrieval [1]: F PD? [h] = (1 + ? 2 )pTPRD [h] (1 + ? 2 )TPRD [h]PrecD [h] , = 2 2 ? TPRD [h] + PrecD [h] p + ? pTPRD [h] + (1 ? p)(1 ? TNRD [h]) where ? ? (0, 1) controls the trade-off between TPR and precision. In a recent work, Ye et al. [15] show that the optimal classifier for the F? -measure is the class probability ? thresholded suitably. Lemma 7 (Optimality of threshold classifiers for F? -measure; Ye et al. (2012) [15]). For any distribution D over X ? {?1} that satisfies Assumption A w.r.t. ?, the Bayes optimal classifier for P F? is of the form hF? ,? (x) = sign ? (?(x) ? t?D,?,F? ). As noted earlier, the authors in [15] show that an idealized plug-in method that applies an empirically determined threshold to the ?true? class probability ? is consistent w.r.t. the F? -measure . This result is however useful only when the ?true? class probability is available to a learning algorithm, which is not the case in most practical settings. On the other hand, the plug-in method considered in our work constructs a classifier by assigning an empirical threshold to a suitable ?estimate? of the class probability. Using Theorem 1, we now show that this method is consistent w.r.t. the F? -measure. Theorem 8 (Consistency of Algorithm 1 w.r.t. F? -measure). Let ? = ?F? in Algorithm 1. Let D be a distribution on X ? {?1} that satisfies Assumption A w.r.t. ?F? . If the CPE algorithm C in Algorithm 1 is L1 -consistent, then Algorithm 1 is F? -consistent w.r.t. D. 2 (1+? )pu is continuous in each Proof. We apply Theorem 1 noting that ?F? (u, v, p) = p+? 2 (pu+(1?p)(1?v)) F? argument, and that (by Lemma 7) the Bayes optimal classifier for P is of the requisite form. 4.3 Consistency for G-TP/PR The geometric mean of TPR and precision (G-TP/PR) is another performance measure proposed for class imbalanced classification problems [3]: s p pTPRD [h]2 G-TP/PR PD [h] = TPRD [h]PrecD [h] = . pTPRD [h] + (1 ? p)(1 ? TNRD [h]) 4 Note that the plug-in classification threshold chosen for the AM-measure is the same independent of the class probability estimate used; our consistency results will therefore apply in this case even if one uses, as in [16], the same sample for both learning a class probability estimate, and estimating the plug-in threshold. 6 We first show that the optimal classifier for G-TP/PR is obtained by thresholding the class probability function ? at a suitable point; our proof uses a technique similar to the one for the F? -measure in [15]. Lemma 9 (Optimality of threshold classifiers for G-TP/PR). For any distribution D on X ? {?1} that satisfies Assumption A w.r.t. ?, the Bayes optimal classifier for P G-TP/PR is of the form hG-TP/PR,? (x) = sign(?(x) ? t?D,?,G-TP/PR ). Theorem 10 (Consistency of Algorithm 1 w.r.t. G-TP/PR). Let ? = ?G-TP/PR . Let D be a distribution on X ? {?1} that satisfies Assumption A w.r.t. ?G-TP/PR . If the CPE algorithm C in Algorithm 1 is L1 -consistent, then Algorithm 1 is G-TP/PR-consistent w.r.t. D. q pu2 Proof. We apply Theorem 1 noting that ?G-TP/PR (u, v, p) = pu+(1?p)(1?v) is continuous in each argument, and that (by Lemma 9) the Bayes optimal classifier for P G-TP/PR is of the requisite form. 5 Consistency of Plug-in Algorithms for Non-decomposable Performance Measures that are Monotonic in TPR and TNR The consistency results seen so far apply to any distribution that satisfies a mild continuity condition at the optimal threshold for a performance measure, and have crucially relied on the specific functional form of the measure. In this section, we shall see that under a stricter continuity assumption on the distribution, the empirical plug-in algorithm can be shown to be consistent w.r.t. any performance measure that is a continuous and monotonically increasing function of TPR and TNR. Assumption B. We will say that a probability distribution D on X ? {?1} satisfies Assumption B w.r.t. ? if t?D,?,? exists and is in (0, 1), and the cumulative distribution function of the random variable ?(x), P(?(x) ? z), is continuous at all z ? (0, 1). Distributions that satisfy the above assumption also satisfy Assumption A. We show that under this assumption, the optimal classifier for any performance measure that is monotonically increasing in TPR and TNR is obtained by thresholding ?, and this holds irrespective of the specific functional form of the measure. An application of Theorem 1 then gives us the desired consistency result. Lemma 11 (Optimality of threshold classifiers for monotonic ? under distributional assumption). Let ? : [0, 1]3 ? R+ be monotonically increasing in its first two arguments. Then for any distribution D on X ? {?1} that satisfies Assumption B, the Bayes optimal classifier for P ? is of the form h?,? (x) = sign(?(x) ? t?D,?,? ). Theorem 12 (Consistency of Algorithm 1 for monotonic ? under distributional assumption). Let ? : [0, 1]3 ? R+ be continuous in each argument, and monotonically increasing in its first two arguments. Let D be a distribution on X ? {?1} that satisfies Assumption B. If the CPE algorithm C in Algorithm 1 is L1 -consistent, then Algorithm 1 is ?-consistent w.r.t. D. Proof. We apply Theorem 1 by using the continuity assumption on ?, and noting that, by Lemma 11 and monotonicity of ?, the Bayes optimal classifier for P ? is of the requisite form. The above result applies to all performance measures listed in Table 1, and in particular, to the geometric, harmonic, and quadratic means of TPR and TNR [2?5], for which the Bayes optimal classifier need not be of the requisite thresholded form for a general distribution (see Appendix C). 6 Experiments We performed two types of experiments. The first involved synthetic data, where we demonstrate diminishing regret of the plug-in method in Algorithm 1 with growing sample size for different performance measures; since the data is generated from a known distribution, exact calculation of regret is possible here. The second involved real data, where we show that the plug-in algorithm is competitive with the state-of-the-art SVMperf algorithm for non-decomposable measures (SVMPerf) [12]; we also include for comparison a plug-in method with a fixed threshold of 0.5 (Plug-in (0-1)). We consider three performance measures here: F1 -measure, G-TP/PR and G-Mean (see Table 1). Synthetic data. We generated data from a known distribution (class conditionals are multivariate Gaussians with mixing ratio p and equal covariance matrices) for which the optimal classifier for 7 F1?measure 0.05 2 3 0.15 0.1 0.05 4 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 10 10 No. of training examples Plug?in (GM) SVMPerf (GM) Plug?in (0?1) 0.08 GM Regret 0.1 10 Plug?in (G?TP/PR) SVMPerf (G?TP/PR) Plug?in (0?1) 0.2 G?TP/PR Regret F1 Regret Plug?in (F1) SVMPerf (F1) Plug?in (0?1) 0.15 0 G?Mean G?TP/PR 0.1 0.2 2 10 3 0 4 2 10 10 10 No. of training examples 3 4 10 10 No. of training examples Figure 1: Experiments on synthetic data with p = 0.5: regret as a function of number of training examples using various methods for the F1 , G-TP/PR and G-mean performance measures. F1?measure 0.4 0.2 0.1 0 2 10 3 0.3 10 10 No. of training examples Plug?in (GM) SVMPerf (GM) Plug?in (0?1) 0.8 0.2 0.1 0 4 G?Mean Plug?in (G?TP/PR) SVMPerf (G?TP/PR) Plug?in (0?1) GM Regret 0.3 G?TP/PR Regret 0.4 F1 Regret G?TP/PR Plug?in (F1) SVMPerf (F1) Plug?in (0?1) 0.6 0.4 0.2 2 10 3 4 10 10 No. of training examples 0 2 10 3 4 10 10 No. of training examples 0 F1 Emp. Plug?in SVMPerf Plug?in (0?1) G?TP/PR G?Mean 0.5 0 F1 Emp. Plug?in SVMPerf Plug?in (0?1) G?TP/PR G?Mean nursery (N = 12960, d = 27, p = 0.025) 1 0.5 0 F1 Emp. Plug?in SVMPerf Plug?in (0?1) G?TP/PR G?Mean pendigits (N = 10992, d = 17,p = 0.096) 1 Performance on test set 0.5 chemo (N = 2111, d = 1021, p = 0.024) 1 Performance on test set car (N = 1728, d = 21, p = 0.038) 1 Performance on test set Performance on test set Figure 2: Experiments on synthetic data with p = 0.1: regret as a function of number of training examples using various methods for the F1 , G-TP/PR and G-Mean performance measures. 0.5 0 F1 Emp. Plug?in SVMPerf Plug?in (0?1) G?TP/PR G?Mean Figure 3: Experiments on real data: results for various methods (using linear models) on four data sets in terms of F1 , G-TP/PR and G-Mean performance measures. Here N, d, p refer to the number of instances, number of features and fraction of positives in the data set respectively. each performance measure considered here is linear, making it sufficient to learn a linear model; the distribution satisfies Assumption B w.r.t. each performance measure. We used regularized logistic regression as the CPE method in Algorithm 1 in order to satisfy the L1 -consistency condition in Theorem 1 (see Appendix A.1 and A.4 for details). The experimental results are shown in Figures 1 and 2 for p = 0.5 and p = 0.1 respectively. In each case, the regret for the empirical plug-in method (Plug-in (F1), Plug-in (G-TP/PR) and Plug-in (GM)) goes to zero with increasing training set size, validating our consistency results; SVMperf fails to exhibit diminishing regret for p = 0.1; and as expected, Plug-in (0-1), with its apriori fixed threshold, fails to be consistent in most cases. Real data. We ran the three algorithms described earlier over data sets drawn from the UCI ML repository [29] and a cheminformatics data set obtained from [30], and report their performance on separately held test sets. Figure 3 contains results for four data sets averaged over 10 random traintest splits of the original data. (See Appendix A.2 for details and A.3 for additional results). Clearly, in most cases, the empirical plug-in method performs comparable to SVMperf and outperforms the Plug-in (0-1) method. 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Exponential Concentration of a Density Functional Estimator Shashank Singh Statistics & Machine Learning Departments Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 sss1@andrew.cmu.edu Barnab?as P?oczos Machine Learning Department Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 bapoczos@cs.cmu.edu Abstract We analyze a plug-in estimator for a large class of integral functionals of one or more continuous probability densities. This class includes important families of entropy, divergence, mutual information, and their conditional versions. For densities on the d-dimensional unit cube [0, 1]d that lie  in a ?-H?  older smoothness ? class, we prove our estimator converges at the rate O n? ?+d . Furthermore, we prove the estimator is exponentially concentrated about its mean, whereas most previous related results have proven only expected error bounds on estimators. 1 Introduction Many important quantities in machine learning and statistics can be viewed as integral functionals of one of more continuous probability densities; that is, quanitities of the form Z F (p1 , ? ? ? , pk ) = f (p1 (x1 ), . . . , pk (xk )) d(x1 , . . . , xk ), X1 ?????Xk where p1 , ? ? ? , pk are probability densities of random variables taking values in X1 , ? ? ? , Xk , respectively, and f : Rk ? R is some measurable function. For simplicity, we refer to such integral functionals of densities as ?density functionals?. In this paper, we study the problem of estimating density functionals. In our framework, we assume that the underlying distributions are not given explicitly. Only samples of n independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) points from each of the unknown, continuous, nonparametric distributions p1 , ? ? ? , pk are given. 1.1 Motivations and Goals One density functional of interest is Conditional Mutual Information (CMI), a measure of conditional dependence of random variables, which comes in several varieties including R?enyi-? and Tsallis-? CMI (of which Shannon CMI is the ? ? 1 limit case). Estimating conditional dependence in a consistent manner is a crucial problem in machine learning and statistics; for many applications, it is important to determine how the relationship between two variables changes when we observe additional variables. For example, upon observing a third variable, two correlated variables may become independent, and, similarly, two independent variables may become dependent. Hence, CMI estimators can be used in many scientific areas to detect confounding variables and avoid infering causation from apparent correlation [19, 16]. Conditional dependencies are also central to Bayesian network learning [7, 34], where CMI estimation can be used to verify compatibility of a particular Bayes net with observed data under a local Markov assumption. Other important density functionals are divergences between probability distributions, including R?enyi-? [24] and Tsallis-? [31] divergences (of which Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence [9] is the 1 ? ? 1 limit case), and Lp divergence. Divergence estimators can be used to extend machine learning algorithms for regression, classification, and clustering from the standard setting where inputs are finite-dimensional feature vectors to settings where inputs are sets or distributions [22, 18]. Entropy and mutual information (MI) can be estimated as special cases of divergences. Entropy estimators are used in goodness-of-fit testing [5], parameter estimation in semi-parametric models [33], and texture classification [6], and MI estimators are used in feature selection [20], clustering [1], optimal experimental design [13], and boosting and facial expression recognition [25]. Both entropy and mutual information estimators are used in independent component and subspace analysis [10, 29] and image registration [6]. Further applications of divergence estimation are in [11]. Despite the practical utility of density functional estimators, little is known about their statistical performance, especially for functionals of more than one density. In particular, few density functional estimators have known convergence rates, and, to the best of our knowledge, no finite sample exponential concentration bounds have been derived for general density functional estimators. One consequence of this exponential bound is that, using a union bound, we can guarantee accuracy of multiple estimates simultaneously. For example, [14] shows how this can be applied to optimally analyze forest density estimation algorithms. Because the CMI of variables X and Y given a third variable Z is zero if and only X and Y are conditionally independent given Z, by estimating CMI with a confidence interval, we can test for conditional independence with bounded type I error probabilty. Our main contribution is to derive convergence rates and an exponential concentration inequality for a particular, consistent, nonparametric estimator for large class of density functionals, including conditional density functionals. We also apply our concentration inequality to the important case of R?enyi-? CMI. 1.2 Related Work Although lower bounds are not known for estimation of general density functionals (of arbitrarily many densities), [2] lower bounded the convergence rate  for estimators of functionals of a single density (e.g., entropy functionals) by O n?4?/(4?+d) . [8] extended this lower bound to the twodensity cases of L2 , R?enyi-?, and Tsallis-? divergences and gave plug-in estimators which achieve  this rate. These estimators enjoy the parametric rate of O n?1/2 when ? > d/4, and work by optimally estimating the density and then applying a correction to the plug-in estimate. In contrast,  our estimator undersmooths the density, and converges at a slower rate of O n??/(?+d) when  ? < d (and the parametric rate O n?1/2 when ? ? d), but obeys an exponential concentration inequality, which is not known for the estimators of [8]. Another exception for f -divergences is provided by [17], using empirical risk minimization. This approach involves solving an ?-dimensional convex minimization problem which be reduced to an n-dimensional problem for certain function classes defined by reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (n is the sample size). When n is large, these optimization problems can still be very demanding. They studied the estimator?s convergence rate, but did not derive concentration bounds. A number of papers have studied k-nearest-neighbors estimators, primarily for R?enyi? density functionals including entropy [12], divergence [32] and conditional divergence and MI [21]. These estimators work directly, without the intermediate density estimation step, and generally have proofs of consistency, but their convergence rates and dependence on k, ?, and the dimension are unknown. One exception for the entropy case is a k-nearest-neighbors based estimator that converges at the parametric rate when ? > d, using an ensemble of weak estimators [27]. Although the literature on dependence measures is huge, few estimators have been generalized to the conditional case [4, 23]. There is some work on testing conditional dependence [28, 3], but, unlike CMI estimation, these tests are intended to simply accept or reject the hypothesis that variables are conditionally independent, rather than to measure conditional dependence. Our exponential concentration inequality also suggests a new test for conditional independence. This paper continues a line of work begin in [14] and continued in [26]. [14] proved an exponential concentration inequality for an estimator of Shannon entropy and MI in the 2-dimensional case. [26] used similar techniques to derive an exponential concentration inequality for an estimator of R?enyi-? divergence in d dimensions, for a larger family of densities. Both used plug-in estimators 2 based on a mirrored kernel density estimator (KDE) on [0, 1]d . Our work generalizes these results to a much larger class of density functionals, as well as to conditional density functionals (see Section 6). In particular, we use a plug-in estimator for general density functionals based on the same mirrored KDE, and also use some lemmas regarding this KDE proven in [26]. By considering the more general density functional case, we are also able to significantly simplify the proofs of the convergence rate and exponential concentration inequality. Organization In Section 2, we establish the theoretical context of our work, including notation, the precise problem statement, and our estimator. In Section 3, we outline our main theoretical results and state some consequences. Sections 4 and 5 give precise statements and proofs of the results in Section 3. Finally, in Section 6, we extend our results to conditional density functionals, and state the consequences in the particular case of R?enyi-? CMI. 2 2.1 Density Functional Estimator Notation For an integer k, [k] = {1, ? ? ? , k} denotes the set of positive integers at most k. Using the notation of multi-indices common in multivariable calculus, Nd denotes the set of d-tuples of non-negative integers, which we denote with a vector symbol~?, and, for ~i ? Nd , ~ ~ Di := ? |i| ? i1 x1 ? ? ? ? id xd and |~i| = d X ik . k=1 For fixed ?, L > 0, r ? 1, and a positive integer d, we will work with densities in the following bounded subset of a ?-H?older space: ? ? ? ? ~i ~i ? |D p(x) ? D p(y)| ? ? d d , (1) CL,r ([0, 1] ) := p : [0, 1] ? R sup ? x6=y?D kx ? yk(??`) ? ? ? ~ |i|=` where ` = b?c is the greatest integer strictly less than ?, and k ? kr : Rd ? R is the usual r-norm. To correct for boundary bias, we will require the densities to be nearly constant near the boundary of [0, 1]d , in that their derivatives vanish at the boundary. Hence, we work with densities in ) ( ~i ? d d ?(?, L, r, d) := p ? CL,r ([0, 1] ) max |D p(x)| ? 0 as dist(x, ?[0, 1] ) ? 0 , (2) 1?|~i|?` where ?[0, 1]d = {x ? [0, 1]d : xj ? {0, 1} for some j ? [d]}. 2.2 Problem Statement For each i ? [k] let Xi be a di -dimensional random vector taking values in Xi := [0, 1]di , distributed according to a density pi : X ? R. For an appropriately smooth function f : Rk ? R, we are interested in a using random sample of n i.i.d. points from the distribution of each Xi to estimate Z F (p1 , . . . , pk ) := f (p1 (x1 ), . . . , pk (xk )) d(x1 , . . . , xk ). (3) X1 ?????Xk 2.3 Estimator For a fixed bandwidth h, we first use the mirrored kernel density estimator (KDE) p?i described in [26] to estimate each density pi . We then use a plug-in estimate of F (p1 , . . . , pk ). Z F (? p1 , . . . , p?k ) := f (? p1 (x1 ), . . . , p?k (xk )) d(x1 , . . . , xk ). X1 ?????Xk Our main results generalize those of [26] to a broader class of density functionals. 3 3 Main Results In this section, we outline our main theoretical results, proven in Sections 4 and 5, and also discuss some important corollaries. We decompose the estimatator?s error into bias and a variance-like terms via the triangle inequality: |F (? p1 , . . . , p?k ) ? F (p1 , . . . , pk )| ? |F (? p1 , . . . , p?k ) ? EF (? p1 , . . . , p?k )| | {z } variance-like term + |EF (? p1 , . . . , p?k ) ? F (p1 , . . . , pk )| . | {z } bias term We will prove the ?variance? bound 2?2 n P (|F (? p1 , . . . , p?k ) ? EF (? p1 , . . . , p?k )| > ?) ? 2 exp ? 2 CV   (4) for all ? > 0 and the bias bound   1 |EF (? p1 , . . . , p?k ) ? F (p1 , . . . , pk )| ? CB h? + h2? + , nhd (5) where d := maxi di , and CV and CB are constant in the sample size n and bandwidth h for exact values. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time an exponential inequality like (4) has been established for general density functional estimation. This variance bound does not depend on h and 1 the bias bound is minimized by h  n? ?+d , we have the convergence rate   ? |EF (? p1 , . . . , p?k ) ? F (p1 , . . . , pk )| ? O n? ?+d . It is interesting to note that, in optimizing the bandwidth for our density functional estimate, we use a smaller bandwidth than is optimal for minimizing the bias of the KDE. Intuitively, this reflects the fact that the plug-in estimator, as an integral functional, performs some additional smoothing. We can use our exponential concentration bound to obtain a bound on the true variance of F (? p1 , . . . , p?k ). If G : [0, ?) ? R denotes the cumulative distribution function of the squared deviation of F (? p1 , . . . , p?k ) from its mean, then     2?n 2 1 ? G(?) = P (F (? p1 , . . . , p?k ) ? EF (? p1 , . . . , p?k )) > ? ? 2 exp ? 2 . CV Thus, h i 2 V[F (? p1 , . . . , p?k )] = E (F (? p1 , . . . , p?k ) ? EF (? p1 , . . . , p?k ))   Z ? Z ? 2?n = 1 ? G(?) d? ? 2 exp ? 2 = CV2 n?1 . CV 0 0 We then have a mean squared error of h i   2? 2 E (F (? p1 , . . . , p?k ) ? F (p1 , . . . , pk )) ? O n?1 + n? ?+d ,   2? which is in O(n?1 ) if ? ? d and O n? ?+d otherwise. It should be noted that the constants in both the bias bound and the variance bound depend exponentially on the dimension d. Lower bounds in terms of d are unknown for estimating most density functionals of interest, and an important open problem is whether this dependence can be made asymptotically better than exponential. 4 Bias Bound In this section, we precisely state and prove the bound on the bias of our density functional estimator, as introduced in Section 3. 4 Assume each pi ? ?(?, L, r, d) (for i ? [k]), assume f : Rk ? R is twice continuously differentiable, with first and second derivatives all bounded in magnitude by some Cf ? R, 1 and assume the kernel K : R ? R has bounded support [?1, 1] and satisfies Z 1 Z K(u) du = 1 1 uj K(u) du = 0 and ?1 for all j ? {1, . . . , `}. ?1 Then, there exists a constant CB ? R such that   1 ? 2? |EF (? p1 , . . . , p?k ) ? F (p1 , . . . , pk )| ? CB h + h + . nhd 4.1 Proof of Bias Bound By Taylor?s Theorem, ?x = (x1 , . . . , xk ) ? X1 ? ? ? ? ? Xk , for some ? ? Rk on the line segment between p?(x) := (? p1 (x1 ), . . . , p?k (xk )) and p(x) := (p1 (x1 ), . . . , pk (xk )), letting Hf denote the Hessian of f 1 T p(x) ? p(x)) + (? |Ef (? p(x)) ? f (p(x))| = E(?f )(p(x)) ? (? p(x) ? p(x)) Hf (?)(? p(x) ? p(x)) 2 ? ? k k X X X ? Cf ? |Bpi (xi )| + |Bpi (xi )Bpj (xj )| + E[? pi (xi ) ? pi (xi )]2 ? i=1 i=1 i<j?k where we used that p?i and p?j are independent for i 6= j. Applying H?older?s Inequality, Z |EF (? p1 , . . . , p?k ) ? F (p1 , . . . , pk )| ? |Ef (? p(x)) ? f (p(x))| dx X1 ?????Xk ? ? Z k Z X X Z |Bpi (xi )| + E[? pi (xi ) ? pi (xi )]2 dxi + |Bpi (xi )| dxi |Bpj (xj )| dxj ? ? Cf ? i=1 ? Cf Xi i<j?k sZ k X i=1 Xi Bp2i (xi ) dxi + Z Xi Xj E[? pi (xi ) ? pi (xi )]2 dxi Xi + X i<j?k sZ Xi Bp2i (xi ) dxi Z Xj ! Bp2j (xj ) dxj . We now make use of the so-called Bias Lemma proven by [26], which bounds the integrated squared bias of the mirrored KDE p? on [0, 1]d for an arbitrary p ? ?(?, L, r, d). Writing the bias of p? at x ? [0, 1]d as Bp (x) = E? p(x) ? p(x), [26] showed that there exists C > 0 constant in n and h such that Z Bp2 (x) dx ? Ch2? . (6) [0,1]d Applying the Bias Lemma and certain standard results in kernel density estimation (see, for example, Propositions 1.1 and 1.2 of [30]) gives    kKkd1 1 ? 2? 2 ? 2? |EF (? p1 , . . . , p?k ) ? F (p1 , . . . , pk )| ? C k h + kh + ? CB h + h + , nhd nhd where kKk1 denotes the 1-norm of the kernel.  1 If p1 (X1 ) ? ? ? ? ? pk (Xk ) is known to lie within some cube [?1 , ?2 ]k , then it suffices for f to be twice continuously differentiable on [?1 , ?2 ]k (and the boundedness condition follows immediately). This will be important for our application to R?enyi-? Conditional Mutual Information. 5 5 Variance Bound In this section, we precisely state and prove the exponential concentration inequality for our density functional estimator, as introduced in Section 3. Assume that f is Lipschitz continuous with constant Cf in the 1-norm on p1 (X1 ) ? ? ? ? ? pk (Xk ) (i.e., |f (x) ? f (y)| ? Cf ? X |xi ? yi |, ?x, y ? p1 (X1 ) ? ? ? ? ? pk (Xk )). (7) k=1 and assume the kernel K ? L1 (R) (i.e., it has finite 1-norm). Then, there exists a constant CV ? R such that ?? > 0,   2?2 n P (|F (? p1 , . . . , p?k ) ? EF (? p1 , . . . , p?k )|) ? 2 exp ? 2 . CV Note that, while we require no assumptions on the densities here, in certain specific applications, such us for some R?enyi-? quantities, where f = log, assumptions such as lower bounds on the density may be needed to ensure f is Lipschitz on its domain. 5.1 Proof of Variance Bound Consider i.i.d. samples (x11 , . . . , xnk ) ? X1 ? ? ? ? ? Xk drawn according to the product distribution p = p1 ? ? ? ? pk . In anticipation of using McDiarmid?s Inequality [15], let p?0j denote the j th mirrored KDE when the sample xij is replaced by new sample (xij )0 . Then, applying the Lipschitz condition (7) on f , Z |F (? p1 , . . . , p?k ) ? F (? p1 , . . . , p?0j , . . . , p?k )| ? Cf |pj (x) ? p0j (x)| dx, Xj since most terms of the sum in (7) are zero. Expanding the definition of the kernel density estimates p?j and p?0j and noting that most terms of the mirrored KDEs p?j and p?0j are identical gives ! ! Z x ? xij x ? (xij )0 Cf 0 ? Kdj |F (? p1 , . . . , p?k ) ? F (? p1 , . . . , p?j , . . . , p?k )| = Kd dx nhdj Xj j h h where Kdj denotes the dj -dimensional mirrored product kernel based on K. Performing a change of variables to remove h and applying the triangle inequality followed by the bound on the integral of the mirrored kernel proven in [26], Z Cf 0 Kd (x ? xij ) ? Kd (x ? (xij )0 ) dx |F (? p1 , . . . , p?k ) ? F (? p1 , . . . , p?j , . . . , p?k )| ? j j n hXj Z 2Cf 2Cf CV d ? |Kdj (x)| dx ? kKk1j = , (8) d n [?1,1] j n n d for CV = 2Cf maxj kKk1j . Since F (? p1 , . . . , p?k ) depends on kn independent variables, McDiarmid?s Inequality then gives, for any ? > 0,     2?2 2?2 n P (|F (? p1 , . . . , p?k ) ? F (p1 , . . . , pk )| > ?) ? 2 exp ? = 2 exp ? 2 .  knCV2 /n2 kCV 6 Extension to Conditional Density Functionals Our convergence result and concentration bound can be fairly easily adapted to to KDE-based plugin estimators for many functionals of interest, including R?enyi-? and Tsallis-? entropy, divergence, and MI, and Lp norms and distances, which have either the same or analytically similar forms as as the functional (3). As long as the density of the variable being conditioned on is lower bounded on its domain, our results also extend to conditional density functionals of the form 2 Z    Z P (x1 , z) P (x2 , z) P (xk , z) , ,..., d(x1 , . . . , xk ) dz (9) F (P ) = P (z)f g P (z) P (z) P (z) Z X1 ?????Xk 2 We abuse notation slightly and also use P to denote all of its marginal densities. 6 including, for example, R?enyi-? conditional entropy, divergence, and mutual information, where f 1 is the function x 7? 1?? log(x). The proof of this extension for general k is essentially the same as for the case k = 1, and so, for notational simplicity, we demonstrate the latter. 6.1 Problem Statement, Assumptions, and Estimator For given dimensions dx , dz ? 1, consider random vectors X and Z distributed on unit cubes X := [0, 1]dx and Z := [0, 1]dz according to a joint density P : X ? Z ? R. We use a random sample of 2n i.i.d. points from P to estimate a conditional density functional F (P ), where F has the form (9). Suppose that P is in the H?older class ?(?, L, r, dx + dz ), noting that this implies an analogous condition on each marginal of P , and suppose that P bounded below and above, i.e., 0 < ?1 := inf x?X ,z?Z P (z) and ? > ?2 := inf x?X ,z?Z P (x, z). Suppose also that f and g are continuously differentiable, with Cf := sup |f (x)| and Cf 0 := x?[cg ,Cg ] where  cg := inf g 0, |f 0 (x)|, sup (10) x?[cg ,Cg ] ?2 ?1   Cg := sup g and 0, ?2 ?1  . After estimating the densities P (z) and P (x, z) by their mirrored KDEs, using n independent data samples for each, we clip the estimates of P (x, z) and P (z) below by ?1 and above by ?2 and denote the resulting density estimates by P? . Our estimate F (P? ) for F (P ) is simply the result of plugging P? into equation (9). 6.2 Proof of Bounds for Conditional Density Functionals We bound the error of F (P? ) in terms of the error of estimating the corresponding unconditional density functional using our previous estimator, and then apply our previous results. Suppose P1 is either the true density P or a plug-in estimate of P computed as described above, and P2 is a plug-in estimate of P computed in the same manner but using a different data sample. Applying the triangle inequality twice, Z    Z    Z P1 (x, z) P1 (x, z) P1 (z)f g |F (P1 ) ? F (P2 )| ? dx ? P (z)f g dx 2 P1 (z) P1 (z) X X Z Z    Z    P1 (x, z) P2 (x, z) g dx ? P2 (z)f g dx dz + P2 (z)f P1 (z) P2 (z) X X Z    Z P (x, z) 1 ? |P1 (z) ? P2 (z)| f g dx P1 (z) Z X Z    Z    P1 (x, z) P2 (x, z) + P2 (z) f g dx ? f g dx dz P1 (z) P2 (z) X X Applying the Mean Value Theorem and the bounds in (10) gives Z     Z P1 (x, z) P2 (x, z) |F (P1 ) ? F (P2 )| ? Cf |P1 (z) ? P2 (z)| + ?2 Cf 0 g ?g dx dz P1 (z) P2 (z) X ZZ = Cf |P1 (z) ? P2 (z)| + ?2 Cf 0 GP1 (z) (P1 (?, z)) ? GP2 (z) (P2 (?, z)) dz, Z where Gz is the density functional  Z GP (z) (Q) = g X Q(x) P (z)  dx. Note that, since the data are split to estimate P (z) and P (x, z), GP? (z) (P? (?, z)) depends on each data point through only one of these KDEs. In the case that P1 is the true density P , taking the 7 expectation and using Fubini?s Theorem gives Z E|F (P ) ? F (P? )| ? Cf E|P (z) ? P? (z)| + ?2 Cf 0 E GP (z) (P (?, z)) ? GP? (z) (P? (?, z)) dz, Z sZ   1 ?Cf E(P (z) ? P? (z))2 dz + 2?2 Cf 0 CB h? + h2? + nhd Z   1 ? (2?2 Cf 0 CB + Cf C) h? + h2? + nhd applying H?older?s Inequality and our bias bound (5), followed by the bias lemma (6). This extends our bias bound to conditional density functionals. For the variance bound, consider the case where P1 and P2 are each mirrored KDE estimates of P , but with one data point resampled (as in the proof of the variance bound, setting up to use McDiarmid?s Inequality). By the same sequence of steps used to show (8), Z 2kKkd1z |P1 (z) ? P2 (z)| dz ? , n Z and Z CV . GP (z) (P (?, z)) ? GP? (z) (P? (?, z)) dz ? n Z (by casing on whether the resampled data point was used to estimate P (x, z) or P (z)), for an appropriate CV depending on supx?[?1 /?2 ,?2 /?1 ] |g 0 (x)|. Then, by McDiarmid?s Inequality,   ?2 n P (|F (? p1 , . . . , p?k ) ? F (p1 , . . . , pk )| > ?) = 2 exp ? 2 .  4CV 6.3 Application to R?enyi-? Conditional Mutual Information As an example, we demonstrate our concentration inequality to the R?enyi-? Conditional Mutual Information (CMI). Consider random vectors X, Y , and Z on X = [0, 1]dx , Y = [0, 1]dy , Z = [0, 1]dz , respectively. ? ? (0, 1) ? (1, ?), the R?enyi-? CMI of X and Y given Z is  ?  1?? Z Z P (x, y, z) P (x, z)P (y, z) 1 P (z) log I(X; Y |Z) = d(x, y) dz. (11) 1?? Z P (z) P (z)2 X ?Y In this case, the estimator which plugs mirrored KDEs for P (x, y, z), P (x, z), P (y, z), and P (z) d +d +d into (11) obeys the concentration inequality (4) with CV = ?? kKk1x y z , where ?? depends only on ?, ?1 , and ?2 . References [1] M. Aghagolzadeh, H. Soltanian-Zadeh, B. Araabi, and A. Aghagolzadeh. A hierarchical clustering based on mutual information maximization. In in Proc. of IEEE International Conference on Image Processing, pages 277?280, 2007. [2] L. Birge and P. Massart. Estimation of integral functions of a density. A. Statistics, 23:11?29, 1995. [3] T. Bouezmarni, J. Rombouts, and A. Taamouti. A nonparametric copula based test for conditional independence with applications to granger causality, 2009. 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Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 22:79?86, 1951. [10] E. G. Learned-Miller and J. W. Fisher. ICA using spacings estimates of entropy. J. Machine Learning Research, 4:1271?1295, 2003. [11] N. Leonenko, L. Pronzato, and V. Savani. A class of R?enyi information estimators for multidimensional densities. Annals of Statistics, 36(5):2153?2182, 2008. [12] N. Leonenko, L. Pronzato, and V. Savani. Estimation of entropies and divergences via nearest neighbours. Tatra Mt. Mathematical Publications, 39, 2008. [13] J. Lewi, R. Butera, and L. Paninski. Real-time adaptive information-theoretic optimization of neurophysiology experiments. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, volume 19, 2007. [14] H. Liu, J. Lafferty, and L. Wasserman. Exponential concentration inequality for mutual information estimation. In Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2012. [15] C. McDiarmid. On the method of bounded differences. Surveys in Combinatorics, 141:148? 188, 1989. [16] D. Montgomery. Design and Analysis of Experiments. John Wiley and Sons, 2005. [17] X. Nguyen, M.J. Wainwright, and M.I. Jordan. Estimating divergence functionals and the likelihood ratio by convex risk minimization. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, To appear., 2010. [18] J. Oliva, B. Poczos, and J. Schneider. Distribution to distribution regression. In International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2013. [19] J. Pearl. Why there is no statistical test for confounding, why many think there is, and why they are almost right, 1998. UCLA Computer Science Department Technical Report R-256. [20] H. Peng and C. Dind. Feature selection based on mutual information: Criteria of maxdependency, max-relevance, and min-redundancy. IEEE Trans On Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 27, 2005. [21] B. Poczos and J. Schneider. Nonparametric estimation of conditional information and divergences. In International Conference on AI and Statistics (AISTATS), volume 20 of JMLR Workshop and Conference Proceedings, 2012. [22] B. Poczos, L. Xiong, D. Sutherland, and J. Schneider. Nonparametric kernel estimators for image classification. In 25th IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), 2012. [23] S. J. Reddi and B. Poczos. Scale invariant conditional dependence measures. In International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2013. [24] A. R?enyi. Probability Theory. North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam, 1970. [25] C. Shan, S. Gong, and P. W. Mcowan. Conditional mutual information based boosting for facial expression recognition. In British Machine Vision Conference (BMVC), 2005. [26] S. Singh and B. Poczos. Generalized exponential concentration inequality for r?enyi divergence estimation. In International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2014. [27] K. Sricharan, D. Wei, and A. Hero. Ensemble estimators for multivariate entropy estimation, 2013. [28] L. Su and H. White. A nonparametric Hellinger metric test for conditional independence. Econometric Theory, 24:829?864, 2008. [29] Z. Szab?o, B. P?oczos, and A. L?orincz. Undercomplete blind subspace deconvolution. J. Machine Learning Research, 8:1063?1095, 2007. [30] A.B. Tsybakov. Introduction to Nonparametric Estimation. Springer Publishing Company, Incorporated, 1st edition, 2008. [31] T. Villmann and S. Haase. Mathematical aspects of divergence based vector quantization using Frechet-derivatives, 2010. University of Applied Sciences Mittweida. [32] Q. Wang, S.R. Kulkarni, and S. Verd?u. Divergence estimation for multidimensional densities via k-nearest-neighbor distances. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 55(5), 2009. [33] E. Wolsztynski, E. Thierry, and L. Pronzato. Minimum-entropy estimation in semi-parametric models. Signal Process., 85(5):937?949, 2005. [34] K. Zhang, J. Peters, D. Janzing, and B. Scholkopf. 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Deconvolution of High Dimensional Mixtures via Boosting, with Application to Diffusion-Weighted MRI of Human Brain Charles Y. Zheng Department of Statistics Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305 snarles@stanford.edu Franco Pestilli Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47405 franpest@indiana.edu Ariel Rokem Department of Psychology Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305 arokem@stanford.edu Abstract Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DWI) and fiber tractography are the only methods to measure the structure of the white matter in the living human brain. The diffusion signal has been modelled as the combined contribution from many individual fascicles of nerve fibers passing through each location in the white matter. Typically, this is done via basis pursuit, but estimation of the exact directions is limited due to discretization [1, 2]. The difficulties inherent in modeling DWI data are shared by many other problems involving fitting non-parametric mixture models. Ekanadaham et al. [3] proposed an approach, continuous basis pursuit, to overcome discretization error in the 1-dimensional case (e.g., spikesorting). Here, we propose a more general algorithm that fits mixture models of any dimensionality without discretization. Our algorithm uses the principles of L2-boost [4], together with refitting of the weights and pruning of the parameters. The addition of these steps to L2-boost both accelerates the algorithm and assures its accuracy. We refer to the resulting algorithm as elastic basis pursuit, or EBP, since it expands and contracts the active set of kernels as needed. We show that in contrast to existing approaches to fitting mixtures, our boosting framework (1) enables the selection of the optimal bias-variance tradeoff along the solution path, and (2) scales with high-dimensional problems. In simulations of DWI, we find that EBP yields better parameter estimates than a non-negative least squares (NNLS) approach, or the standard model used in DWI, the tensor model, which serves as the basis for diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) [5]. We demonstrate the utility of the method in DWI data acquired in parts of the brain containing crossings of multiple fascicles of nerve fibers. 1 1 Introduction In many applications, one obtains measurements (xi , yi ) for which the response y is related to x via some mixture of known kernel functions f? (x), and the goal is to recover the mixture parameters ?k and their associated weights: yi = K X wk f?k (x) + i (1) k=1 where f? (x) is a known kernel function parameterized by ?, and ? = (?1 , . . . , ?K ) are model parameters to be estimated, w = (w1 , . . . , wK ) are unknown nonnegative weights to be estimated, and i is additive noise. The number of components K is also unknown, hence, this is a nonparametric model. One example of a domain in which mixture models are useful is the analysis of data from diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DWI). This biomedical imaging technique is sensitive to the direction of water diffusion within millimeter-scale voxels in the human brain in vivo. Water molecules freely diffuse along the length of nerve cell axons, but is restricted by cell membranes and myelin along directions orthogonal to the axon?s trajectory. Thus, DWI provides information about the microstructural properties of brain tissue in different locations, about the trajectories of organized bundles of axons, or fascicles within each voxel, and about the connectivity structure of the brain. Mixture models are employed in DWI to deconvolve the signal within each voxel with a kernel function, f? , assumed to represent the signal from every individual fascicle [1, 2] (Figure 1B), and wi provide an estimate of the fiber orientation distribution function (fODF) in each voxel, the direction and volume fraction of different fascicles in each voxel. In other applications of mixture modeling these parameters represent other physical quantities. For example, in chemometrics, ? represents a chemical compound and f? its spectra. In this paper, we focus on the application of mixture models to the data from DWI experiments and simulations of these experiments. 1.1 Model fitting - existing approaches Hereafter, we restrict our attention to the use of squared-error loss; resulting in penalized leastsquares problem 2 ? K X (2) w ?k f??k (xi ) minimize K, ? yi ? ? w, ?? + ?P? (w) k=1 Minimization problems of the form (2) can be found in the signal deconvolution literature and elsewhere: some examples include super-resolution in imaging [6], entropy estimation for discrete distributions [7], X-ray diffraction [8], and neural spike sorting [3]. Here, P? (w) is a convex penalty function of (?, w). Examples of such penalty functions given in Section 2.1; a formal definition of convexity in the nonparametric setting can be found in the supplementary material, but will not be required for the results in the paper. Technically speaking, the objective function (2) is convex in (w, ?), but since its domain is of infinite dimensionality, for all practical purposes (2) is a nonconvex optimization problem. One can consider fixing the number of components in advance, and using a descent method (with random restarts) to find the best model of that size. Alternatively, one could use a stochastic search method, such as simulated annealing or MCMC [9], to estimate the size of the model and the model parameters simultaneously. However, as one begins to consider fitting models ? and of high dimensionality, it becomes increasingly diffiwith increasing number of components K cult to apply these approaches [3]. Hence a common approach to obtaining an approximate solution to (2) is to limit the search to a discrete grid of candidate parameters ? = ?1 , . . . , ?p . The estimated weights and parameters are then obtained by solving an optimization problem of the form ?? = argmin?>0 ||y ? F~ ?||2 + ?P? (?) where F~ has the jth column f~?j , where f~? is defined by (f~? )i = f? (xi ). Examples applications of this non-negative least-squares-based approach (NNLS) include [10] and [1, 2, 7]. In contrast to descent based methods, which get trapped in local minima, NNLS is guaranteed to converge to a solution which is within  of the global optimum, where  depends on the scale of discretization. In 2 some cases, NNLS will predict the signal accurately (with small error), but the parameters resulting will still be erroneous. Figure 1 illustrates the worst-case scenario where discretization is misaligned relative to the true parameters/kernels that generated the signal. B A Signal Parameters Figure 1: The signal deconvolution problem. Fitting a mixture model with a NNLS algorithm is prone to errors due to discretization. For example, in 1D (A), if the true signal (top; dashed line) arises from a mixture of signals from a bell-shaped kernel functions (bottom; dashed line), but only a single kernel function between them is present in the basis set (bottom; solid line), this may result in inaccurate signal predictions (top; solid line), due to erroneous estimates of the parameters wi . This problem arises in deconvolving multi-dimensional signals, such as the 3D DWI signal (B), as well. Here, the DWI signal in an individual voxel is presented as a 3D surface (top). This surface results from a mixture of signals arising from the fascicles presented on the bottom passing through this single (simulated) voxel. Due to the signal generation process, the kernel of the diffusion signal from each one of the fascicles has a minimum at its center, resulting in ?dimples? in the diffusion signal in the direction of the peaks in the fascicle orientation distribution function. In an effort to improve the discretization error of NNLS, Ekanadham et al [3] introduced continuous basis pursuit (CBP). CBP is an extension of nonnegative least squares in which the points on the discretization grid ?1 , . . . , ?p can be continuously moved within a small distance; in this way, one can reach any point in the parameter space. But instead of computing the actual kernel functions for the perturbed parameters, CBP uses linear approximations, e.g. obtained by Taylor expansions. Depending on the type of approximation employed, CBP may incur large error. The developers of CBP suggest solutions for this problem in the one-dimensional case, but these solutions cannot be used for many applications of mixture models (e.g DWI). The computational cost of both NNLS and CBP scales exponentially in the dimensionality of the parameter space. In contrast, using stochastic search methods or descent methods to find the global minimum will generally incur a computational cost scaling which is exponential in the sample size times the parameter space dimensions. Thus, when fitting high-dimensional mixture models, practitioners are forced to choose between the discretization errors inherent to NNLS, or the computational difficulties in the descent methods. We will show that our boosting approach to mixture models combines the best of both worlds: while it does not suffer from discretization error, it features computational tractability comparable to NNLS and CBP. We note that for the specific problem of super-resolution, C`andes derived a deconvolution algorithm which finds the global minimum of (2) without discretization error and proved that the algorithm can recover the true parameters under a minimal separation condition on the parameters [6]. However, we are unaware of an extension of this approach to more general applications of mixture models. 1.2 Boosting The model (1) appears in an entirely separate context, as the model for learning a regression function as an ensemble of weak learners f? , or boosting [4]. However, the problem of fitting a mixture model and the problem of fitting an ensemble of weak learners have several important differences. In the case of learning an ensemble, the family {f? } can be freely chosen from a universe of possible weak learners, and the only concern is minimizing the prediction risk on a new observation. In contrast, in the case of fitting a mixture model, the family {f? } is specified by the application. As a result, boosting algorithms, which were derived under the assumption that {f? } is a suitably flexible class of weak learners, generally perform poorly in the signal deconvolution setting, where the family {f? } is inflexible. In the context of regression, L2 boost, proposed by Buhlmann et al [4] produces a 3 path of ensemble models which progressively minimize the sum of squares of the residual. L2 boost fits a series of models of increasing complexity. The first model consists of the single weak learner f~? which best fits y. The second model is formed by finding the weak learner with the greatest correlation to the residual of the first model, and adding the new weak learner to the model, without changing any of the previously fitted weights. In this way the size of the model grows with the number of iterations: each new learner is fully fit to the residual and added to the model. But because the previous weights are never adjusted, L2 Boost fails to converge to the global minimum of (2) in the mixture model setting, producing suboptimal solutions. In the following section, we modify L2 Boost for fitting mixture models. We refer to the resulting algorithm as elastic basis pursuit. 2 Elastic Basis Pursuit Our proposed procedure for fitting mixture models consists of two stages. In the first stage, we transform a L1 penalized problem to an equivalent non regularized least squares problem. In the second stage, we employ a modified version of L2 Boost, elastic basis pursuit, to solve the transformed problem. We will present the two stages of the procedure, then discuss our fast convergence results. 2.1 Regularization For most mixture problems it is beneficial to apply a L1 -norm based penalty, by using a modified input y? and kernel function family f?? , so that 2 2 K K X X f?? (3) f~? + ?P? (w) = argminK,w,? y? ? argminK,w,? y ? i=1 i=1 We will use our modified L2 Boost algorithm to produce a path of solutions for objective function on the left side, which results in a solution path for the penalized objective function (2). For example, it is possible to embed the penalty P? (w) = ||w||21 in the optimization problem (2). One can show that solutions obtained by using the penalty function P? (w) = ||w||21 have a oneto-one correspondence with solutions of obtained using theusual  L1 penalty ||w||1 . The penalty y ||w||21 is implemented by using the transformed input: y? = and using modified kernel vectors 0   f~ f?? = ?? . Other kinds of regularization are also possible, and are presented in the supplemental ? material. 2.2 From L2 Boost to Elastic Basis Pursuit Motivated by the connection between boosting and mixture modelling, we consider application of L2 Boost to solve the transformed problem (the left side of(3)). Again, we reiterate the nonparametric nature of the model space; by minimizing (3), we seek to find the model with any number of components which minimizes the residual sum of squares. In fact, given appropriate regularization, this results in a well-posed problem. In each iteration of our algorithm a subset of the parameters, ? are considered for adjustment. Following Lawson and Hanson [11], we refer to these as the active set. As stated before, L2 Boost can only grow the active set at each iteration, converging to inaccurate models. Our solution to this problem is to modify L2 Boost so that it grows and contracts the active set as needed; hence we refer to this modification of the L2 Boost algorithm as elastic basis pursuit. The key ingredient for any boosting algorithm is an oracle for fitting a weak learner: that is, a function ? which takes a residual as input and returns the parameter ? corresponding to the kernel f?? most correlated with the residual. EBP takes as inputs the oracle ? , the input vector y?, the function f?? , and produces a path of solutions which progressively minimize (3). To initialize the algorithm, we use NNLS to find an initial estimate of (w, ?). In the kth iteration of the boosting algorithm, let r?(k?1) be residual from the previous iteration (or the NNLS fit, if k = 1). The algorithm proceeds as follows 4 1. Call the oracle to find ?new = ? (? r(k?1) ), and add ?new to the active set ?. 2. Refit the weights w, using NNLS, to solve: minimizew>0 ||? y ? F? w||2 where F? is the matrix formed from the regressors in the active set, f?? for ? ? ?. This yields the residual r?(k) = y? ? F? w. 3. Prune the active set ? by removing any parameter ? whose weight is zero, and update the weight vector w in the same way. This ensures that the active set ? remains sparse in each iteration. Let (w(k) , ? (k) ) denote the values of (w, ?) at the end of this step of the iteration. 4. Stopping may be assessed by computing an estimated prediction error at each iteration, via an independent validation set, and stopping the algorithm early when the prediction error begins to climb (indicating overfitting). Psuedocode and Matlab code implementing this algorithm can be found in the supplement. In the boosting context, the property of refitting the ensemble weights in every iteration is known as the totally corrective property; LPBoost [12] is a well-known example of a totally corrective boosting algorithm. While we derived EBP as a totally corrective variant of L2 Boost, one could also view EBP as a generalization of the classical Lawson-Hanson (LH) algorithm [11] for solving nonnegative least-squares problems. Given mild regularity conditions and appropriate regularization, Elastic Basis Pursuit can be shown to deterministically converge to the global optimum: we can bound the ? objective function gap in the mth iteration by C/ m, where C is an explicit constant (see 2.3). To our knowledge, fixed iteration guarantees are unavailable for all other methods of comparable generality for fitting a mixture with an unknown number of components. 2.3 Convergence Results (Detailed proofs can be found in the supplementary material.) For our convergence results to hold, we require an oracle function ? : Rn? ? ? which satisfies * f?? (?r) r?, ||f?? (?r) || + * f?? ? ??(? r), where ?(? r) = sup r?, ||f?? || ??? + (4) for some fixed 0 < ? <= 1. Our proofs can also be modified to apply given a stochastic oracle that satisfies (4) with fixed probability p > 0 for every input r?. Recall that y? denotes the transformed input, f?? the transformed kernel and n ? the dimensionality of y?. We assume that the parameter space ? ? is compact and that f? , the transformed kernel function, is continuous in ?. Furthermore, we assume that either L1 regularization is imposed, or the kernels satisfy a positivity condition, i.e. inf ??? f? (xi ) ? 0 for i = 1, . . . , n. Proposition 1 states that these conditions imply the existence of a maximally saturated model (w? , ? ? ) of size K ? ? n ? with residual r?? . The existence of such a saturated model, in conjunction with existence of the oracle ? , enables us to state fixed-iteration guarantees on the precision of EBP, which implies asymptotic convergence to the global optimum. To do so, we first define the quantity ?(m) = ?(? r(m) ), see (4) above. Proposition (m) (m) ? 2 uses the fact that the residuals r? are orthogonal to F , thanks to the NNLS fitting procedure in step 2. This allows us to bound the objective function gap in terms of ?(m) . Proposition 3 uses properties of the oracle ? to lower bound the progress per iteration in terms of ?(m) . Proposition 2 Assume the conditions of Proposition 1. Take saturated model w? , ? ? . Then defining ? ? B =2 K X wi? ||f??i? || i=1 the mth residual of the EBP algorithm r?(m) can be bounded in size by ||? r(m) ||2 ? ||? r? ||2 + B ? ?(m) 5 (5) In particular, whenever ? converges to 0, the algorithm converges to the global minimum. Proposition 3 Assume the conditions of Proposition 1. Then ||? r(m) ||2 ? ||? r(m+1) ||2 ? (??(m) )2 for ? defined above in (4). This implies that the sequence ||? r(0) ||2 , . . . is decreasing. Combining Propositions 2 and 3 yields our main result for the non-asymptotic convergence rate. Proposition 4 Assume the conditions of Proposition 1. Then for all m > 0, p r(0) ||2 ? ||? r? ||2 || 1 Bmin ||? (m) 2 ? 2 ? ||? r || ? ||? r || ? ? m where Bmin = inf B? ? ? w ,? ? for B defined in (5) Hence we have characterized the non-asymptotic convergence of EBP at rate ?1m with an explicit constant, which in turn implies asymptotic convergence to the global minimum. 3 DWI Results and Discussion To demonstrate the utility of EBP in a real-world application, we used this algorithm to fit mixture models of DWI. Different approaches are taken to modeling the DWI signal. The classical Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI) model [5], which is widely used in applications of DWI to neuroscience questions, is not a mixture model. Instead, it assumes that diffusion in the voxel is well approximated by a 3-dimensional Gaussian distribution. This distribution can be parameterized as a rank-2 tensor, which is expressed as a 3 by 3 matrix. Because the DWI measurement has antipodal symmetry, the tensor matrix is symmetric, and only 6 independent parameters need to be estimated to specify it. DTI is accurate in many places in the white matter, but its accuracy is lower in locations in which there are multiple crossing fascicles of nerve fibers. In addition, it should not be used to generate estimates of connectivity through these locations. This is because the peak of the fiber orientation distribution function (fODF) estimated in this location using DTI is not oriented towards the direction of any of the crossing fibers. Instead, it is usually oriented towards an intermediate direction (Figure 4B). To address these challenges, mixture models have been developed, that fit the signal as a combination of contributions from fascicles crossing through these locations. These models are more accurate in fitting the signal. Moreover, their estimate of the fODF is useful for tracking the fascicles through the white matter for estimates of connectivity. However, these estimation techniques either use different variants of NNLS, with a discrete set of candidate directions [2], or with a spherical harmonic basis set [1], or use stochastic algorithms [9]. To overcome the problems inherent in these techniques, we demonstrate here the benefits of using EBP to the estimation of a mixture models of fascicles in DWI. We start by demonstrating the utility of EBP in a simulation of a known configuration of crossing fascicles. Then, we demonstrate the performance of the algorithm in DWI data. The DWI measurements for a single voxel in the brain are y1 , . . . , yn for directions x1 , . . . , xn on the three dimensional unit sphere, given by yi = K X wk fDk (xi ) + i , where fD (x) = exp[?bxT Dx], (6) k=1 The kernel functions fD (x) each describe the effect of a single fascicle traversing the measurement voxel on the diffusion signal, well described by the Stejskal-Tanner equation [13]. Because of the non-negative nature of the MRI signal, i > 0 is generated from a Rician distribution [14]. where b is a scalar quantity determined by the experimenter, and related to the parameters of the measurement (the magnitude of diffusion sensitization applied in the MRI instrument). D is a positive definite quadratic form, which is specified by the direction along which the fascicle represented by fD traverses the voxel and by additional parameters ?1 and ?2 , corresponding to the axial and radial 6 diffusivity of the fascicle represented by fD . The oracle function ? is implemented by NewtonRaphson with random restarts. In each iteration of the algorithm, the parameters of D (direction and diffusivity) are found using the oracle function, ? (? r), using gradient descent on r?, the current residuals. In each iteration, the set of fD is shrunk or expanded to best match the signal. A B Diffusion signal C D f? Model fit iteration 1 Residual ? Residual + Model fit iteration 2 Figure 2: To demonstrate the steps of EBP, we examine data from 100 iterations of the DWI simulation. (A) A cross-section through the data. (B) In the first iteration, the algorithm finds the best single kernel to represent the data (solid line: average kernel). (C) The residuals from this fit (positive in dark gray, negative in light gray) are fed to the next step of the algorithm, which then finds a second kernel (solid line: average kernel). (D) The signal is fit using both of these kernels (which are the active set at this point). The combination of these two kernels fits the data better than any of them separately, and they are both kept (solid line: average fit), but redundant kernels can also be discarded at this point (D). Figure 3: The progress of EBP. In each plot, the abscissa denotes the number of iterations in the algorithm (in log scale). (A) The number of kernel functions in the active set grows as the algorithm progresses, and then plateaus. (B) Meanwhile, the mean square error (MSE) decreases to a minimum and then stabilizes. The algorithm would normally be terminated at this minimum. (C) This point also coincides with a minimum in the optimal bias-variance trade-off, as evidenced by the decrease in EMD towards this point. In a simulation with a complex configuration of fascicles, we demonstrate that accurate recovery of the true fODF can be achieved. In our simulation model, we take b = 1000s/mm2 , and generate v1 , v2 , v3 as uniformly distributed vectors on the unit sphere and weights w1 , w2 , w3 as i.i.d. uniformly distributed on the interval [0, 1]. Each vi is associated with a ?1,i between 0.5 and 2, and setting ?2,i to 0. We consider the signal in 150 measurement vectors distributed on the unit sphere according to an electrostatic repulsion algorithm. We partition the vectors into a training partition and a test partition to minimize the maximum angular separation in each partition. ? 2 = 0.005 we generate a signal We use cross-validation on the training set to fit NNLS with varying L1 regularization parameter c, using the regularization penalty function: ?P (w) = ?(c ? ||w||1 )2 . We choose this form of penalty function because we interpret the weights w as comprising partial volumes in the voxel; hence c represents the total volume of the voxel weighted by the isotropic component of the diffusion. We fix the regularization penalty parameter ? = 1. The estimated fODFs and predicted signals are obtained by three algorithms: DTI, NNLS, and EBP. Each algorithm is applied to the training set (75 directions), and error is estimated, relative to a prediction on the test set (75 directions). The latter two methods (NNLS, EBP) use the regularization parameters ? = 1 and the c chosen by crossvalidated NNLS. Figure 2 illustrates the first two iterations of EBP applied to these simulated data. The estimated fODF are compared to the true fODF by the antipodally symmetrized Earth Mover?s 7 distance (EMD) [15] in each iteration. Figure 3 demonstrates the progress of the internal state of the EBP algorithm in many repetitions of the simulation. In the simulation results (Figure 4), EBP clearly reaches a more accurate solution than DTI, and a sparser solution than NNLS. 1 A 1 0 B 1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0 1 -1 0 1 C -1 -1 0 -1 1 True parameters 0 1 -1 0 1 -1 0 1 Model parameters Figure 4: DWI Simulation results. Ground truth entered into the simulation is a configuration of 3 crossing fascicles (A). DTI estimates a single primary diffusion direction that coincides with none of these directions (B). NNLS estimates an fODF with many, demonstrating the discretization error (see also Figure 1). EBP estimates a much sparser solution with weights concentrated around the true peaks (D). The same procedure is used to fit the three models to DWI data, obtained at 2x2x2 mm3 , at a bvalue of 4000 s/mm2 . In the these data, the true fODF is not known. Hence, only test prediction error can be obtained. We compare RMSE of prediction error between the models in a region of interest (ROI) in the brain containing parts of the corpus callosum, a large fiber bundle that contains many fibers connecting the two hemispheres, as well as the centrum semiovale, containing multiple crossing fibers (Figure 5). NNLS and EBP both have substantially reduced error, relative to DTI. Figure 5: DWI data from a region of interest (A, indicated by red frame) is analyzed and RMSE is displayed for DTI (B), NNLS(C) and EBP(D). 4 Conclusions We developed an algorithm to model multi-dimensional mixtures. This algorithm, Elastic Basis Pursuit (EBP), is a combination of principles from boosting, and principles from the Lawson-Hanson active set algorithm. It fits the data by iteratively generating and testing the match of a set of candidate kernels to the data. Kernels are added and removed from the set of candidates as needed, using a totally corrective backfitting step, based on the match of the entire set of kernels to the data at each step. We show that the algorithm reaches the global optimum, with fixed iteration guarantees. Thus, it can be practically applied to separate a multi-dimensional signal into a sum of component signals. For example, we demonstrate how this algorithm can be used to fit diffusion-weighted MRI signals into nerve fiber fascicle components. Acknowledgments The authors thank Brian Wandell and Eero Simoncelli for useful discussions. CZ was supported through an NIH grant 1T32GM096982 to Robert Tibshirani and Chiara Sabatti, AR was supported through NIH fellowship F32-EY022294. FP was supported through NSF grant BCS1228397 to Brian Wandell 8 References [1] Tournier J-D, Calamante F, Connelly A (2007). Robust determination of the fibre orientation distribution in diffusion MRI: non-negativity constrained super-resolved spherical deconvolution. Neuroimage 35:145972 [2] DellAcqua F, Rizzo G, Scifo P, Clarke RA, Scotti G, Fazio F (2007). A model-based deconvolution approach to solve fiber crossing in diffusion-weighted MR imaging. IEEE Trans Biomed Eng 54:46272 [3] Ekanadham C, Tranchina D, and Simoncelli E. (2011). Recovery of sparse translation-invariant signals with continuous basis pursuit. IEEE transactions on signal processing (59):4735-4744. [4] B?uhlmann P, Yu B (2003). Boosting with the L2 loss: regression and classification. JASA, 98(462), 324-339. [5] Basser,P. J., Mattiello, J. and Le-Bihan, D. (1994). MR diffusion tensor spectroscopy and imaging. Biophysical Journal, 66:259-267. [6] Cand`es, E. J., and FernandezGranda, C. (2013). Towards a Mathematical Theory of Superresolution. Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics. [7] Valiant, G., and Valiant, P. (2011, June). Estimating the unseen: an n/log (n)-sample estimator for entropy and support size, shown optimal via new CLTs. In Proceedings of the 43rd annual ACM symposium on Theory of computing (pp. 685-694). ACM. [8] S?anchez-Bajo, F., and Cumbrera, F. L. (2000). Deconvolution of X-ray diffraction profiles by using series expansion. Journal of applied crystallography, 33(2), 259-266. [9] Behrens TEJ, Berg HJ, Jbabdi S, Rushworth MFS, and Woolrich MW (2007). Probabilistic diffusion tractography with multiple fiber orientations: What can we gain? NeuroImage (34):14445. [10] Bro, R., and De Jong, S. (1997). A fast non-negativity-constrained least squares algorithm. Journal of chemometrics, 11(5), 393-401. [11] Lawson CL, and Hanson RJ. (1995). Solving Least Squares Problems. SIAM. [12] Demiriz, A., Bennett, K. P., and Shawe-Taylor, J. (2002). Linear programming boosting via column generation. Machine Learning, 46(1-3), 225-254. [13] Stejskal EO, and Tanner JE. (1965). Spin diffusion measurements: Spin echoes in the presence of a time-dependent gradient field. J Chem Phys(42):288-92. [14] Gudbjartsson, H., and Patz, S. (1995). The Rician distribution of noisy MR data. Magn Reson Med. 34: 910914. [15] Rubner, Y., Tomasi, C. Guibas, L.J. (2000). The earth mover?s distance as a metric for image retrieval. Intl J. Computer Vision, 40(2), 99-121. 9
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Bayesian Nonlinear Support Vector Machines and Discriminative Factor Modeling Ricardo Henao, Xin Yuan and Lawrence Carin Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 {r.henao,xin.yuan,lcarin}@duke.edu Abstract A new Bayesian formulation is developed for nonlinear support vector machines (SVMs), based on a Gaussian process and with the SVM hinge loss expressed as a scaled mixture of normals. We then integrate the Bayesian SVM into a factor model, in which feature learning and nonlinear classifier design are performed jointly; almost all previous work on such discriminative feature learning has assumed a linear classifier. Inference is performed with expectation conditional maximization (ECM) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). An extensive set of experiments demonstrate the utility of using a nonlinear Bayesian SVM within discriminative feature learning and factor modeling, from the standpoints of accuracy and interpretability. 1 Introduction There has been significant interest recently in developing discriminative feature-learning models, in which the labels are utilized within a max-margin classifier. For example, such models have been employed in the context of topic modeling [1], where features are the proportion of topics associated with a given document. Such topic models may be viewed as a stochastic matrix factorization of a matrix of counts. The max-margin idea has also been extended to factorization of more general matrices, in the context of collaborative prediction [2, 3]. These studies have demonstrated that the use of the max-margin idea, which is closely related to support vector machines (SVMs) [4], often yields better results than designing discriminative feature-learning models via a probit or logit link. This is particularly true for high-dimensional data (e.g., a corpus characterized by a large dictionary of words), as in that case the features extracted from the high-dimensional data may significantly outweigh the importance of the small number of labels in the likelihood. Margin-based classifiers appear to be attractive in mitigating this challenge [1]. Joint matrix factorization, feature learning and classifier design are well aligned with hierarchical models. The Bayesian formalism is well suited to such models, and much of the aforementioned research has been constituted in a Bayesian setting. An important aspect of this prior work utilizes the recent recognition that the SVM loss function may be expressed as a location-scale mixture of normals [5]. This is attractive for joint feature learning and classifier design, which is leveraged in this paper. However, the Bayesian SVM setup developed in [5] assumed a linear classifier decision function, which is limiting for sophisticated data, for which a nonlinear classifier is more effective. The first contribution of this paper concerns the extension of the work in [5] for consideration of a kernel-based, nonlinear SVM, and to place this within a Bayesian scaled-mixture-of-normals construction, via a Gaussian process (GP) prior. The second contribution is a generalized formulation of this mixture model, for both the linear and nonlinear SVM, which is important within the context of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference, yielding improved mixing. This new construction generalizes the form of the SVM loss function. 1 The manner we employ a GP in this paper is distinct from previous work [6, 7, 8], in that we explicitly impose a max-margin-based SVM cost function. In the previous GP-based classifier design, all data contributed to the learned classification function, while here a relatively small set of support vectors play a dominant role. This identification of support vectors is of interest when the number of training samples is large (simplifying subsequent prediction). The key reason to invoke a Bayesian form of the SVM [5], instead of applying the widely studied optimization-based SVM [4], is that the former may be readily integrated into sophisticated hierarchical models. As an example of that, we here consider discriminative factor modeling, in which the factor scores are employed within a nonlinear SVM. We demonstrate the advantage of this in our experiments, with nonlinear discriminative factor modeling for high-dimensional gene-expression data. We present MCMC and expectation conditional maximization inference for the model. Conditional conjugacy of the hierarchical model yields simple and efficient computations. Hence, while the nonlinear SVM is significantly more flexible than its linear counterpart, computations are only modestly more complicated. Details on the computational approaches, insights on the characteristics of the model, and demonstration on real data constitute a third contribution of this paper. 2 Mixture Representation for SVMs d Previous model for linear SVM Assume N observations {xn , yn }N n=1 , where xn ? R is a feature vector and yn ? {?1, 1} is its label. The support vector machine (SVM) seeks to find a classification function f (x) by solving a regularized learning problem n P o N (1) argminf (x) ? n=1 max(1 ? yn f (xn ), 0) + R(f (x)) , where max(1 ? yn f (xn ), 0) is the hinge loss, R(f (x)) is a regularization term that controls the complexity of f (x), and ? is a tuning parameter controlling the tradeoff between error penalization and the complexity of the classification function. The decision boundary is defined as {x : f (x) = 0} and sign(f (x)) is the decision rule, classifying x as either ?1 or 1 [4]. Recently, [5] showed that for the linear classifier f (x) = ? ? x, minimizing (1) is equivalent to estimating the mode of the pseudo-posterior of ? QN p(?|X, y, ?) ? n=1 L(yn |xn , ?, ?)p(?|?) , (2) where y = [y1 . . . yN ]? , X = [x1 . . . xN ], L(yn |xn , ?, ?) is the pseudo-likelihood function, and p(?|?) is the prior distribution for the vector of coefficients ?. Choosing ? to maximize the log of (2) corresponds to (1), where the prior is associated with R(f (x)). In [5] it was shown that L(yn |xn , ?, ?) admits a location-scale mixture of normals representation by introducing latent variables ?n , such that   Z ? ? ? (1 + ?n ? yn ? ? xn )2 ?2?max(1?yn ? ? xn ,0) ? L(yn |xn , ?, ?) = e = d?n . (3) exp ? 2? ?1 ?n 2??n 0 Expression (2) is termed a pseudo-posterior because its likelihood term is unnormalized with respect to yn . Note that an improper flat prior is imposed on ?n . The original formulation of [5] has the tuning parameter ? as part of the prior distribution of ?, while here in (3) it is included instead in the likelihood. This is done because (i) it puts ?n and the regularization term ? together, and (ii) it allows more freedom in the choice of the prior for ?. Additionally, it has an interesting interpretation, in that the SVM loss function behaves like a globallocal shrinkage distribution [9]. Specifically, ? ?1 corresponds to a ?global? scaling of the variance, and ?n represents the ?local? scaling for component n. The {?n } define the relative variances for each of the N data, and ? ?1 provides a global scaling. One of the benefits of a Bayesian formulation for SVMs is that we can flexibly specify the behavior of ? while being able to adaptively regularize it by specifying a prior p(?) as well. For instance, [5] gave three examples of prior distributions for ?: Gaussian, Laplace, and spike-slab. We can extend the results of [5] to a slightly more general loss function, by imposing a proper prior for the latent variables ?n . In particular, by specifying ?n ? Exp(?0 ) and letting un = 1?yn ? ? xn , Z ? ? ?0 ? ? ? (un +?n )2 ??0 ?n ?0 ??(c|un |+un ) ? L(yn |xn , ?, ?) = d?n = e 2 ?n e e , (4) c 2?? 0 2 p where c = 1 + 2?0 ? ?1 > 1. The proof relies (see Supplementary Material) on the identity, R? ?1/2 a(2??) exp{? 12 (a2 ? + b2 ??1 )}d? = e?|ab| [10]. From (4) we see that as ?0 ? 0 we 0 recover (3) by noting that 2max(un , 0) = |un | + un . In general we may use the prior ?n ? Ga(a? , ?0 ), with a? = 1 for the exponential distribution. In the next section we discuss other choices for a? . This means that the proposed likelihood is no longer equivalent to the hinge loss but to a more general loss, termed below a skewed Laplace distribution. Skewed Laplace distribution We can write the likelihood function in (4) in terms of un as  Z ? ?0 e??(c+1)un , if un ? 0 ?1 N (un | ? ?n , ? ?n )Exp(?n |?0 )d?n = L(un |?, ?0 ) = , (5) c e??(c?1)|un | , if un < 0 0 which corresponds to a Laplace distribution, with negative skewness, denoted as sLa(un |?, ?0 ). Unlike the density derived from the hinge loss (?0 ? 0), this density is properly normalized, thus it corresponds to a valid probability density function. For the special case ?0 = 0, the integral diverges, hence the normalization constant does not exist, which stems from exp(?2?max(un , 0)) being constant for ?? < un < 0. From (5) we see that sLa(un |?, ?0 ) can be represented either as mixture of normals or mixture of exponentials. Other properties of the distribution, such as its moments, can be obtained using the results for general asymmetric Laplace distributions in [11]. Examining (5) we can gain some intuition about the behavior of the likelihood function for the classification problem: (i) When yn ? ? xn = 1, ?n = 0 and xn lies on the margin boundary. (ii) When yn ? ? xn > 1, xn is correctly classified, outside the margin and |1 ? yn ? ? xn | is exponential with rate ?(c ? 1). (iii) xn is correctly classified but lies inside the margin when 0 < yn ? ? xn < 1, and xn is misclassified when yn ? ? xn < 0. In both cases, 1 ? yn ? ? xn is exponential with rate ?(c + 1). (iv) Finally, if yn ? ? xn = 0, xn lies on the decision boundary. Since c + 1 > c ? 1 for every c > 1, the distribution for case (ii) decays slower than the distribution for case (iii). Alternatively, in terms of the loss function, observations satisfying (iii) get more penalized than those satisfying (ii). In the limiting case, ?0 ? 0 we have c ? 1, and case (ii) is not penalized at all, recovering the behavior of the hinge loss. In the SVM literature, an observation xn is called a support vector if it satisfies cases (i) or (iii). In the latter case, ?n is the distance from yn ? ? xn to the margin boundary [4]. The key thing that the Exp(?0 ) prior imposes on ?n , relative to the flat prior on ?n ? [0, ?), is that it constrains that ?n not be too large (discouraging yn ? ? xn ? 1 for correct classifications, which is even more relevant for nonlinear SVMs); we discuss this further below. Extension to nonlinear SVM We now assume that the decision function f (x) is drawn from a zero-mean Gaussian process GP(0, k(x, ?, ?)), with kernel parameters ?. Evaluated at the N points at which we have data, f ? N (0, K), where K is a N ? N covariance matrix with entries kij = k(xi , xj , ?) for i, j ? {1, . . . , N } [7]; f = [f1 . . . fN ]? ? RN corresponds to the continuous f (x) evaluated at {xn }N n=1 . Together with (5), for un = 1 ? yn fn , where fn = f (xn ), the full prior specification for the nonlinear SVM is f ? N (0, K) , ?n ? Exp(?0 ) , ? ? Ga(a0 , b0 ) . (6) It is straightforward to prove the equality in (5) holds for fn in place of ? ? xn , as in (6). For nonlinear SVMs as above, being able to set ?0 > 0 is particularly beneficial. It prevents fn from being arbitrarily large (hence preventing 1 ? yn fn ? 0). This implies that isolated observations far away from linear decision boundary (even when correctly classified when learning) tend to be support vectors in a nonlinear SVM, yielding more conservative learned nonlinear decision boundaries. Figure 1 shows examples of log N (1 ? yn fn ; ??n , ? ?1 ?n ) Exp(?n ; ?0 ) for ? = 100 and ?0 = {0.01, 100}. The vertical lines denote the margin boundary (yn fn = 1) and the decision boundary (yn fn = 0). We see that when ?0 is small, the density has a very pronounced negative skewness (like in the hinge loss of the original SVM) whereas when ?0 is large, the density tends to be more of a symmetric shape. 3 Inference We wish to compute the posterior p(f , ?, ?|y, X), where ? = [?1 . . . ?N ]? . We describe and have implemented three inference procedures: Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), a point estimate via expectation-conditional maximization (ECM) and a GP approximation for fast inference. 3 5 5 x 10 x 10 2 2 10 ?1 ?2 0 10 ?n ?n 10 ?1 ?2 0 10 ?3 ?3 ?2 ?2 10 10 ?4 ?3 ?2 ?1 0 1 ? yn fn 1 2 3 ?4 ?3 ?1 ?2 ?1 0 1 ? yn fn 1 2 3 Figure 1: Examples of log N (1 ? yn fn ; ??n , ? ?n )Exp(?n ; ?0 ) for ? = 100 and ?0 = 0.01 (left) and ?0 = 100 (right). The vertical lines denote the margin boundary (yn fn = 1) and the decision boundary (yn fn = 0). MCMC Inference is implemented by repeatedly sampling from the conditional posterior of parameters in (6). Conditional conjugacy allows us to express the following distributions in closed form: f |y, ?, ? ? N (m, S) , m = ?SY??1 (1 + ?) , S = ? ?1 K(K + ? ?1 ?)?1 ? , ! p   (7) 1 + 2?0 ? ?1 1 1 ?1 , ? + 2?0 , ?|y, f , ? ? Ga a0 + N, b0 + ?? ??1 ? , ?n |fn , yn , ? ? IG |1 ? yn fn | 2 2 where ? = diag(?), Y = diag(y), ? = 1 + ? ? Yf , and IG(?, ?) is the inverse Gaussian distribution with parameters ? and ? [10]. In MCMC ?0 plays a crucial role, because it controls the prior variance of the latent variables ?n , thus greatly improving mixing, particularly that of ?. We also verified empirically that for small values of ?0 , ? is consistently underestimated. In practice we fix ?0 = 0.1, however, a conjugate prior (gamma) exists, and sampling from its conditional posterior is straightforward if desired. The parameters of the covariance function ? in the GP require Metropolis-Hastings type algorithms, as in most cases no closed form for their conditional posterior is available. However, the problem is relatively well studied. We have found that slice sampling methods [12], in particular the surrogate data sampler of [13], work well in practice, and are employed here. For the case of SVMs, MCMC is naturally important as a way of quantifying the uncertainty of the parameters of the model. Further, it allows us to use the hierarchy in (6) as a building block in more sophisticated models, or to bring more flexibility to f through specialized prior specifications. As an example of this, Section 5 describes a specification for a nonlinear discriminative factor model. ECM The expectation-conditional maximization algorithm is a generalization of the expectationmaximization (EM) algorithm. It can be used when there are multiple parameters that need to be estimated [14]. From (6) we identify f and ? as the parameters to be estimated, and ?n as the latent variables. The Q function in EM-style algorithms is the complete data log-posterior, where expectations are taken w.r.t. the posterior distribution evaluated at the current value of the parameter of interest. From (7) we see that ?n appears in the conditional posterior p(f |y, K, ?, ?) as first order terms, thus we can write p (i) (i) ?1 (i) h??1 1 + 2?0 (? (i) )?1 |un |?1 , (8) n i = E[?n |yn , fn , ? ] = (i) (i) (i) where fn and ? (i) are the estimates of fn and ? at the i-th iteration, and un = 1 ? yn fn . From (7) and (8) we can obtain the EM updates: f (i+1) = K(K + (? (i) )?1 h?i)?1 Y(1 + h?i) and ?1  PN (i+1) 2 (i+1) ) + 2un + h?n i . ? (i+1) = a0 ? 1 + 12 N b0 + 21 n=1 h??1 n i(un In the ECM setting, learning the parameters of the covariance function is not as straightforward as in MCMC. However, we can borrow from the GP literature [7] and use the fact that we can marginalize f while conditioning on ? and ?: Z(y, X, ?, ?, ?) = N (Y(1 + ?), K + ? ?1 ?) . (9) Note that K is a function of X and ?. Estimation of ? is done by maximizing log Z(y, X, ?, ?, ?). For this we need only compute the partial derivatives of (9) w.r.t. ?, and then use a gradient-based 4 optimizer. This is commonly known as Type II maximum likelihood (ML-II) [7]. In practice we alternate between EM updates for {f , ?} and ? updates for a pre-specified number of iterations (typically the model converges after 20 iterations). Speeding up inference Perhaps one of the most well known shortcomings of GP is that its cubic complexity is prohibitive for large scale problems. However there is an extensive literature about approximations for fast GP models [15]. Here we use the Fully Independent Training Conditional (FITC) approximation [16], as it offers an attractive balance between complexity and performance [15]. The basic idea behind FITC is to assume that f is generated i.i.d. from pseudo-inputs {vm }M m=1 via fm ? RM such that fm ? N (0, Kmm ), where Kmm is a M ?M covariance matrix. Specifically, from (5) we have QN ?1 p(u|fm ) = n=1 p(un |fm ) = N (Knm K?1 ?) , mm fm , diag(K ? Qnn ) + ? N where u = 1 ? Yf , Kmn is the cross-covariance matrix between {vm }M m=1 and {xn }n=1 , and ?1 Qnn = Knm Kmm Kmn . If we marginalize out fm thus Z(y, X, ?, ?, ?) = N (Y(1 + ?), Qnn + diag(K ? Qnn ) + ? ?1 ?) . (10) Note that if we drop the diag(?) term in (10) due to the i.i.d. assumption for f , we recover the full GP marginal from (9). Similar to the ML-II approach previously described, for a fixed M we can maximize log Z(y, X, ?, ?, ?) w.r.t. ? and {vm }M m=1 using a gradient-based optimizer but with the added benefit of having decreased the computational cost from O(N 3 ) to O(N M 2 ) [16]. Predictions Making predictions under the model in (6), with conditional posterior distributions in (7), can be achieved using standard results of the multivariate normal distribution. The predictive distribution of f? for a new observation x? given the dataset {X, y} can be written as f? |x? , X, y ? N (k? ?Y(1 + ?), k? ? k? ? ?k? ) , (11) where ? = (K + ? ?1 ?)?1 , k? = k(x? , x? , ?) and k? = [k(x? , x1 , ?) . . . k(x? , xN , ?)]? . Furthermore, we can directly use the probit link ?(f? ) to compute Z  ?1 p(y? = 1|x? , X, y) = ?(f? )p(f? |x? , X, y)df? = ? k? ?Y(1 + ?)(1 + k? ? k? , ? ?k? ) which follows from [7]. Computing the class membership probability is not possible in standard SVMs, because in such optimization-based methods one does not obtain the variance of the predictive distribution; this variance is an attractive component of the Bayesian construction. The mean of the predictive distribution (11) is tightly related to the predictor in standard SVMs, in the sense that both are manifestations of the representer theorem. In particular PN (12) E[f? |x? , X, y] = n=1 ?n k(x? , xn , ?) , where ? = (K + ? ?1 ?)?1 Y(1 + ?). From the expectations of ?n and f conditioned on ? and ?0 itpis possible to show that ? is a vector with elements ?(1 ? c) ? ?n ? ?(1 + c), where c = 1 + 2?0 ? ?1 . We differentiate three types of elements in ? as follows ? ?yn ?(1 + c), if yn fn < 1 (13) ? = ?n0 , if yn fn = 1 (?n = 0) , ? yn ?(1 ? c) , if yn fn > 1 0 with ?0 = K?1 0,0 (y0 ? ?(1 + c)K0,a ya ? ?(1 ? c)K0,b yb ), where ?n is an element of ?0 , and 0, a and b are subsets of {1, . . . , N } for which ?n = 0, yn fn < 1 and yn fn > 1, respectively. This implies ? and so the prediction rule in (12) depend on data for which ?n > 0 only through ? and ?0 . Note also that we do not need the values of ? but whether or not they are different than zero. When ?0 ? 0 then c ? 1 and ? becomes a sparse vector bounded above by 2?. This result for standard SVMs can be found independently from the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions for its objective function [4]. For ECM and variational Bayes EM inference (the latter discussed below in Section 5), we set ?0 = 0 and therefore ? is sparse, with ?n = 0 when yn fn > 1, as in traditional SVMs. This property of the proposed use of GPs within the Bayesian SVM formulation is a significant advantage relative to traditional classifier design based directly on GPs, for which we do not have such sparsity in general. For MCMC inference, we find the sampler mixes better when ?0 6= 0. Details on the derivations of (13) and the concavity of the problem may be found in Supplementary Material. 5 4 Related Work A key contribution of this paper concerns extension of the linear Bayesian SVM developed in [5] to a nonlinear Bayesian SVM. This has been implemented by replacing the linear f (x) = ? ? x considered in [5] with an f (x) drawn from a GP. The most relevant previous work is that for which a classifier is directly implemented via a GP, without an explicit connection to the margin associated with the SVM [7]. Specifically, GP-based classifiers have been developed by [17]. In [7] the f is drawn from a GP, as in (6), but f is used directly with a probit or logit link function, to estimate class membership probability. Previous GP-based classifiers did not use f within a margin-based classifier as in (6), implemented here via p(un ) = N (??n , ? ?1 ?n ), where un = 1?yn fn . It has been shown empirically that nonlinear SVMs and GP classifiers often perform similarly [8]. However, for the latter, inference can be challenging due to the non-conjugacy of multivariate normal distribution to the link function. Common inference strategies employ iterative approximate inference schemes, such as the Laplace approximation [17] or expectation propagation (EP) [18]. The model we propose here is locally fully conjugate (except for the GP kernel parameters) and inference can be easily implemented using EM style algorithms, or via MCMC. Besides, the prediction rule of the GP classifier, which has a form almost identical to (12), is generally not sparse and therefore lacks the interpretation that may be provided by the relatively few support vectors. 5 Discriminative Factor Models Combinations of factor models and linear classifiers have been widely used in many applications, such as gene expression, proteomics and image analysis, as a way to perform classification and feature selection simultaneously [19, 20]. One of the most common modeling approaches can be written as xn = Awn + ?n , ?n ? N (0, ? ?1 I) , L(yn |?, wn , ?) , where A is a d?K matrix of factor loadings, wn ? RK is a vector of factor scores, ?n is observation noise (and/or model residual), ? is a vector of K linear classifier coefficients and L(?) is for instance but not limited to the linear SVM likelihood in (5) (a logit or probit link may also be used). One of many possible prior specification for the above model is ak ? N (0, ?k ) , wn ? N (0, I) , ? ? Ga(a? , b? ) , ? ? N (0, G) , where ak is a column of A, ?k = diag(?1k , . . . , ?dk ), ?ik ? Exp(?), G = diag(g1 , . . . , gK ) and each element of A is distributed aik ? Laplace(?) after marginalizing out {?ik } [10]. Shrinkage in A is typically a requirement when N ? d or when its columns, ak , need to be interpreted. For simplicity, we can set G = I, however a shrinkage prior for the elements gk of G might be useful in some applications, as a mechanism for factor score selection. Although the described model usually works well in practice, it assumes that there is a linear mapping from Rd to RK , such that K ? d, in which the classes {?1, 1} are linearly separable. We can relax this assumption by imposing the hierarchical model in (6) in place of ?. This implies that matrix K from (6) has now entries kij = k(wi , wj , ?). Inference using MCMC is straightforward except for the conditional posterior of the factor scores. This model is related to latent-variable GP models (GP-LVM) [21], in that we infer the latent {wi } that reside within a GP kernel. However, here {wi } are also factor scores in a factor model, and the GP is used within the context of a Bayesian SVM classifier; neither of latter two have been considered previously. For the nonlinear Bayesian SVM classifier we no longer have a closed form for the conditional of wn , due to the covariance function of the GP prior. Thus, we require a Metropolis-Hastings type algorithm. Here we use elliptical slice sampling [22]. Specifically, we sample wn from p(wn |A, W\n , ?, y, ?, ?, ?) ? p(wn |xn , A, ?)Z(y, wn , W\n , ?, ?, ?) , (14) where p(wn |xn , A, ?) ? N (SN ?Axn , SN ), W = [w1 . . . wN ], W\n is matrix W without ? column n, S?1 N = ?A A + I, and we have marginalized out f as in (9) with W in place of X. The elliptical slice sampler proposes samples from p(wn |xn , A, ?) while biasing them towards more likely configurations of ?. Provided that ? ultimately controls the predictive distribution of the classifier in (11), samples of wn will at the same time attempt to fit the data and to improve classification performance. From (14), note that we sample one column of W at a time, while keeping the others fixed. Details of the elliptical slice sampler are found in [22]. In applications in which sampling from (14) is time prohibitive, we can use instead a variational Bayes EM (VB-EM) approach. In the E-step, we approximate the posterior of A, {?k }, ?, f , ? and ? by a factorized Q distribution q(A) k q(?k )q(?)q(f )q(?)q(?) and in the M-step we optimize W and ?, using LBFGS [23]. Details of the implementation can be found in the Supplementary Material. 6 6 Experiments In all experiments we set the covariance function  to (i) either the square exponential (SE), which has the form k(xi , xj , ?) = exp ?kxi ? xj k2 ?2 ), where ?2 is known as the characteristic length scale; or (ii) the automatic relevance determination (ARD) SE in which each dimension of x has its own length scale [7]. All code used in the experiments was written in Matlab and executed on a 2.8GHz workstation with 4Gb RAM. Benchmark data We first compare the perfor- Table 1: Benchmark data results. Mean % error mance of the proposed Bayesian hierarchy for from 10-fold cross-validation. nonlinear SVM (BSVM) against EP-based GP Data set N d BSVM SVM GPC classification (GPC) and an optimization-based Ionosphere 351 34 5.98 5.71 7.41 SVM, on six well known benchmark datasets. Sonar 208 60 11.06 11.54 12.50 Wisconsin 683 9 2.93 3.07 2.64 In particular, we use the same data and settings Crabs 200 7 1.5 2.0 2.5 as [8], specifically 10-fold cross-validation and Pima 768 8 21.88 24.22 22.01 SE covariance function. The parameters of the USPS 3 vs 5 1540 256 1.49 1.56 1.69 SVM {?, ?} are obtained by grid search using an internal 5-fold cross-validation. GPC uses ML-II and a modified SE function k(xi , xj , ?) =  ?12 exp ?kxi ? xj k2 ?22 ), where ?1 acts as regularization trade-off similar to ? in our formulation [7]. For our model we set 200 as the maximum number of iterations of the ECM algorithm and run ML-II every 20 iterations. Table 1 shows mean errors for the methods under consideration. We see that all three perform similarly as one might expect thus error bars are not showed, however BSVM slightly outperforms the others in 4 out of 6 datasets. From the three methods, the SVM is clearly faster than the others. GP classification and our model essentially scale cubically with N , however, ours is relatively faster mainly due to overhead computations needed by the EP algorithm. More specifically, running times for the larger dataset (USPS 3 vs 5) were approximately 1000, 1200 and 5000 seconds for SVM, BSVM and GPC, respectively. In order to test the approximation introduced in Section 3 (to accelerate GP in3 vs. 5 (N = 767) 4 vs. non-4 (N = 7291) ference) we use the traditional splitting of FITC-GPC FITC-BSVM FITC-GPC FITC-BSVM Error 3.69 ? 0.26 3.49 ? 0.29 2.59 ? 0.17 2.44 ? 0.17 USPS, 7291 for model fitting and the reTime 102 46 604 116 maining 2007 for testing, on two different tasks: 3 vs. 5 and 4 vs. non-4. Table 2 shows mean error rates and standard deviations for FITC versions of BSVM and GPC, for M = 100 pseudo-inputs and 10 repetitions. We see that FITC-BSVM slightly outperforms FITC-GPC in both tasks while being relatively faster. As baselines, full BSVM and GPC on the 3 vs. 5 task perform roughly similar at 2.46% error. We also verified (results not shown) that increasing M consistently decreases error rates for both FITC-BSVM and FITC-GPC. Table 2: FITC results (mean % error) for USPS data. USPS data We applied the model proposed in Section 5 to the well known 3 vs. 5 subset of the USPS handwritten digits dataset, consisting of 1540 gray scale 16 ? 16 images, rescaled within [?1, 1]. We use the resampled version, this is, 767 for model fitting and the remaining 773 for testing. As baselines, we also perform inference as a two step procedure, first fitting the factor model (FM), followed by a linear (L) or a nonlinear (N) SVM classifier. We also consider learning jointly the factor model but with a linear SVM (LDFM), and a two step procedure consisting of LDFM followed by a nonlinear SVM. Our proposed nonlinear discriminative factor model is denoted NDFM. VB-EM versions of LDFM and NDFM are denoted as VLDFM and VNDFM, respectively. MCMC details for the linear SVM part can be found in [5]. For inference, we set K = 10, a SE covariance function and run the sampler for 1200 iterations, from which we discard the first 600 and keep every 10-th for posterior summaries. We observed in general good mixing regardless of random initialization, and results remained very similar for different Markov chains. Table 3 shows classification results for the eight classifiers considered; we see that the nonlinear classifiers perform substantially better than the linear counterparts. In addition, the proposed nonlinear joint model (NDFM) is the best of all five. The nonlinear classifier is powerful enough to perform well in both two step procedures. We found that VNDFM is not performing as good as NDFM because the data likelihood is dominating over the labels likelihood in the updates for the factor scores, which is not surprising considering the marked size differences between the two. On the positive side, runtime for VNDFM is approximately two orders of magnitude smaller than that of NDFM. We also tried a joint nonlinear model with a probit link as in GP classification and we 7 Table 3: Mean % error with standard deviations and runtime (seconds) for USPS and gene expression data. FM+L FM+N Error Time 6.21 ? 0.32 44 3.36 ? 0.26 840 Error Time 22.70 ? 0.92 105 19.52 ? 1.02 136 LDFM VLDFM LDFM+N VLDFM+N USPS (Test set) 5.95 ? 0.31 5.56 ? 0.18 3.62 ? 0.26 3.62 ? 0.19 120 60 920 160 Gene expression (10-fold cross-validation) 22.70 ? 0.92 22.31 ? 0.78 20.31 ? 0.88 19.52 ? 0.88 126 25 158 57 NDFM VNDFM 2.72 ? 0.13 20000 3.23 ? 0.16 210 18.33 ? 0.84 1100 18.33 ? 0.84 103 found its classification performance (a mean error rate of 3.10%) being slightly worse than that for NDFM. In addition, we found that using ARD SE covariance functions to automatically select for features of A and larger values of K did not substantial changed the results. Gene expression data The dataset originally introduced in [24] consists of gene expression measurements from primary breast tumor samples for a study focused towards finding expression patterns potentially related to mutations of the p53 gene. The original data were normalized using RMA and filtered to exclude genes showing trivial variation. The final dataset consists of 251 samples and 2995 normalized gene expression values. The labeling variable indicates whether or not a sample exhibits the mutation. We use the same baseline and inference settings from our previous experiment, but validation is done by 10-fold cross-validation. In preliminary results we found that factor score selection improves results, hence for the linear classifier (L) we used an exponential prior for the variances of ?, gk ? Exp(?), and for the nonlinear case (N) we set an ARD SE covariance function for K. Table 3 summarizes the results, the nonlinear variants outperform their linear counterparts and our joint model perform slightly better than the others. Additionally, the joint nonlinear model with GP and probit link yielded an error rate of 19.52%. As a way of quantifying whether the features (factor loadings) produced by FM, LDFM and NDFM are meaningful from a biological point of view, we performed Gene Ontology (GO) searches for the gene lists encoded by each column of A. In order to quantify the strength of the association between GO annotations and our gene lists we obtained Bonferroni corrected p-values [25]. We thresholded the elements of matrix A such that |aik | > 0.1. Using the 10 lists from each model we found that FM, LDFM and NDFM produced respectively 5, 5 and 8 factors significantly associated to GO terms relevant to breast cancer. The GO terms are: fatty acid metabolism, induction of programmed cell death (apoptosis), anti-apoptosis, regulation of cell cycle, positive regulation of cell cycle, cell cycle and Wnt signaling pathway. The strongest associations in all models are unsurprisingly apoptosis and positive regulation of cell cycle, however, only NDFM produced a significant association to anti-apoptosis which we believe is responsible for the edge in performance of NDFM in Table 3. 7 Conclusion We have introduced a fully Bayesian version of nonlinear SVMs, extending the previous restriction to linear SVMs [5]. Almost all of the existing joint feature-learning and classifier-design models assumed linear classifiers [2, 3, 26]. We have demonstrated in our experiments that there is a substantial performance improvement manifested by the nonlinear classifier. In addition, we have extended the Bayesian equivalent of the hinge loss to a more general loss function, for both linear and nonlinear classifiers. We have demonstrated that this approach enhances modeling flexibility, and yields improved MCMC mixing. The Bayesian setup allows one to directly compute class membership probabilities. We showed how to use the nonlinear SVM as a module in a larger model, and presented compelling results to highlight its potential. Point estimate inference using ECM is conceptually simpler and easier to implement than MCMC or GP classification, although MCMC is attractive for integrating the factor model and classifier (for example). We showed how FITC and VB-EM based approximations can be used in conjunction with the SVM nonlinear classifier and discriminative factor modeling, respectively, as a way to scale inference in a principled way. Acknowledgments The research reported here was funded in part by ARO, DARPA, DOE, NGA and ONR. 8 References [1] J. Zhu, A. Ahmed, and E. P. Xing. MedLDA: maximum margin supervised topic models for regression and classification. ICML, pages 1257?1264, 2009. [2] M. Xu, J. Zhu, and B. Zhang. Fast max-margin matrix factorization with data augmentation. ICML, pages 978?986, 2013. [3] M. Xu, J. Zhu, and B. Zhang. Nonparametric max-margin matrix factorization for collaborative prediction. NIPS 25, pages 64?72, 2012. [4] C. Cortes and V. Vapnik. Support-vector networks. Machine Learning, 20(3):273?297, 1995. [5] N. G. Polson and S. L. Scott. Data augmentation for support vector machines. Bayesian Analysis, 6(1):1? 23, 2011. [6] M. Opper and O. Winther. Gaussian processes for classification: Mean-field algorithms. Neural Computation, 12(11):2655?2684, 2000. [7] C. E. Rasmussen and C. K. I. Williams. Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning. The MIT Press, 2006. [8] M. Kuss and C. E. Rasmussen. Assessing approximate inference for binary Gaussian process classification. JMLR, 6:1679?1704, 2005. [9] N. G. Polson and J. G. Scott. Shrink globally, act locally: sparse Bayesian regularization and prediction. Bayesian Statistics, 9:501?538, 2010. [10] D. F. Andrews and C. L. Mallows. Scale mixtures of normal distributions. JRSSB, 36(1):99?102, 1974. [11] T. J. Kozubowski and K. Podgorski. A class of asymmetric distributions. Actuarial Research Clearing House, 1:113?134, 1999. [12] R. M. Neal. Slice sampling. AOS, 31(3):705?741, 2003. [13] I. Murray and R. P. Adams. Slice sampling covariance hyperparameters of latent Gaussian models. NIPS 23, pages 1723?1731, 2010. [14] X.-L. Meng and D. B. Rubin. Maximum likelihood estimation via the ECM algorithm: A general framework. Biometrika, 80(2):267?278, 1993. [15] J Qui?nonero-Candela and C. E. Rasmussen. A unifying view of sparse approximate Gaussian process regression. JMLR, 6:1939?1959, 2005. [16] E. Snelson and Z. Ghahramani. Sparse Gaussian processes using pseudo-inputs. NIPS 18, pages 1257? 1264, 2006. [17] C. K. I. Williams and D. Barber. Bayesian classification with Gaussian processes. PAMI, 20(12):1342? 1351, 1998. [18] Thomas P. Minka. A family of algorithms for approximate Bayesian inference. PhD thesis, MIT, 2001. [19] C. M. Carvalho, J. Chang, J. E. Lucas, J. R. Nevins, Q. Wang, and M. West. High-dimensional sparse factor modeling: Applications in gene expression genomics. JASA, 103(484):1438?1456, 2008. [20] M. Zhou, H. Chen, J. Paisley, L. Ren, G. Sapiro, and L. Carin. Non-parametric Bayesian dictionary learning for sparse image representations. NIPS 22, pages 2295?2303, 2009. [21] N.D. Lawrence. Gaussian process latent variable models for visualisation of high dimensional data. NIPS 16, 2003. [22] I. Murray, R. P. Adams, and D. J. C. MacKay. Elliptical slice sampling. AISTATS, pages 541?548, 2010. [23] D. C. Liu and J. Nocedal. On the limited memory method for large scale optimization. Mathematical Programming B, pages 503?528, 1989. [24] L. D. Miller, J. Smeds, J. George, V. B. Vega, L. Vergara, A. Ploner, Y. Pawitan, P. Hall, S. Klaar, E. T. Liu, et al. An expression signature for p53 status in human breast cancer predicts mutation status, transcriptional effects, and patient survival. PNAS, 102(38):13550?13555, 2005. [25] J. T. Chang and J. R. Nevins. GATHER: a systems approach to interpreting genomic signatures. Bioinformatics, 22(23):2926?2933, 2006. [26] J. Mairal, F. Bach, J. Ponce, G. Sapiro, and A. Zisserman. Supervised dictionary learning. NIPS 21, pages 1033?1040, 2009. 9
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Optimizing F-Measures by Cost-Sensitive Classification Shameem A. Puthiya Parambath, Nicolas Usunier, Yves Grandvalet Universit?e de Technologie de Compi`egne ? CNRS, Heudiasyc UMR 7253 Compi`egne, France {sputhiya,nusunier,grandval}@utc.fr Abstract We present a theoretical analysis of F -measures for binary, multiclass and multilabel classification. These performance measures are non-linear, but in many scenarios they are pseudo-linear functions of the per-class false negative/false positive rate. Based on this observation, we present a general reduction of F measure maximization to cost-sensitive classification with unknown costs. We then propose an algorithm with provable guarantees to obtain an approximately optimal classifier for the F -measure by solving a series of cost-sensitive classification problems. The strength of our analysis is to be valid on any dataset and any class of classifiers, extending the existing theoretical results on F -measures, which are asymptotic in nature. We present numerical experiments to illustrate the relative importance of cost asymmetry and thresholding when learning linear classifiers on various F -measure optimization tasks. 1 Introduction The F1 -measure, defined as the harmonic mean of the precision and recall of a binary decision rule [20], is a traditional way of assessing the performance of classifiers. As it favors high and balanced values of precision and recall, this performance metric is usually preferred to (label-dependent weighted) classification accuracy when classes are highly imbalanced and when the cost of a false positive relatively to a false negative is not naturally given for the problem at hand. The design of methods to optimize F1 -measure and its variants for multilabel classification (the micro-, macro-, per-instance-F1 -measures, see [23] and Section 2), and the theoretical analysis of the optimal classifiers for such metrics have received considerable interest in the last 3-4 years [6, 15, 4, 18, 5, 13], especially because rare classes appear naturally on most multilabel datasets with many labels. The most usual way of optimizing F1 -measure is to perform a two-step approach in which first a classifier which output scores (e.g. a margin-based classifier) is learnt, and then the decision threshold is tuned a posteriori. Such an approach is theoretically grounded in binary classification [15] and for micro- or macro-F1 -measures of multilabel classification [13] in that a Bayes-optimal classifier for the corresponding F1 -measure can be obtained by thresholding posterior probabilities of classes (the threshold, however, depends on properties of the whole distribution and cannot be known in advance). Thus, such arguments are essentially asymptotic since the validity of the procedure is bound to the ability to accurately estimate all the level sets of the posterior probabilities; in particular, the proof does not hold if one wants to find the optimal classifier for the F1 -measure over an arbitrary set of classifiers (e.g. thresholded linear functions). In this paper, we show that optimizing the F1 -measure in binary classification over any (possibly restricted) class of functions and over any data distribution (population-level or on a finite sample) can be reduced to solving an (infinite) series of cost-sensitive classification problems, but the cost space can be discretized to obtain approximately optimal solutions. For binary classification, as well as for multilabel classification (micro-F1 -measure in general and the macro-F1 -measure when training independent classifiers per class), the discretization can be made along a single real-valued 1 variable in [0, 1] with approximation guarantees. Asymptotically, our result is, in essence, equivalent to prior results since Bayes-optimal classifiers for cost-sensitive classification are precisely given by thresholding the posterior probabilities, and we recover the relationship between the optimal F1 measure and the optimal threshold given by Lipton et al. [13]. Our reduction to cost-sensitive classification, however, is strictly more general. Our analysis is based on the pseudo-linearity of the F1 -scores (the level sets, as function of the false negative rate and the false positive rate are linear) and holds in any asymptotic or non-asymptotic regime, with any arbitrary set of classifiers (without the requirement to output scores or accurate posterior probability estimates). Our formal framework and the definition of pseudo-linearity is presented in the next section, and the reduction to cost-sensitive classification is presented in Section 2. While our main contribution is the theoretical part, we also turn out to the practical suggestions of our results. In particular, they suggest that, for binary classification, learning cost-sensitive classifiers may be more effective than thresholding probabilities. This is in-line with Musicant et al. [14], although their argument only applies to SVM and does not consider the F1 -measure itself but a continuous, non-convex approximation of it. Some experimental results are presented in Section 4, before the conclusion of the paper. 2 Pseudo-Linearity and F -Measures Our results are mainly motivated by the maximization of F -measures for binary and multilabel classification. They are based on a general property of these performance metrics, namely their pseudo-linearity with respect to the false negative/false positive probabilities. For binary classification, the results we prove in Section 3 are that in order to optimize the F measure, it is sufficient to solve a binary classification problem with different costs allocated to false positive and false negative errors (Proposition 4). However, these costs are not known a priori, so in practice we need to learn several classifiers with different costs, and choose the best one (according to the F -score) in a second step. Propositions 5 and 6 provide approximation guarantees on the F -score we can obtain by following this principle depending on the granularity of the search in the cost space. Our results are not specific to the F1 -measure in binary classification, and they naturally extend to other cases of F -measures with similar functional forms. For that reason, we present the results and prove them directly for the general case, following the framework that we describe in this section. We first present the machine learning framework we consider, and then give the general definition of pseudo-convexity. Then, we provide examples of F -measures for binary, multilabel and multiclass classification and we show how they fit into this framework. 2.1 Notation and Definitions We are given (i) a measurable space X ?Y, where X is the input space and Y is the (finite) prediction set, (ii) a probability measure ? over X ? Y, and (iii) a set of (measurable) classifiers H from the input space X to Y. We distinguish here the prediction set Y from the label space L = {1, ..., L}: in binary or single-label multi-class classification, the prediction set Y is the label set L, but in multilabel classification, Y = 2L is the powerset of the set of possible labels. In that framework, we assume that we have an i.i.d. sample drawn from an underlying data distribution P on X ? Y. The ? Then, we may take empirical distribution of this finite training (or test) sample will be denoted P. ? ? = P to get results at the population level (concerning expected errors), or we may take ? = P to get results on a finite sample. Likewise, H can be a restricted set of functions such as linear classifiers if X is a finite-dimensional vector space, or may be the set of all measurable classifiers from X to Y to get results in terms of Bayes-optimal predictors. Finally, when needed, we will use bold characters for vectors and normal font with subscript for indexing. Throughout the paper, we need the notion of pseudo-linearity of a function, which itself is defined from the notion of pseudo-convexity (see e.g. [3, Definition 3.2.1]): a differentiable function F : D ? Rd ? R, defined on a convex open subset of Rd , is pseudo-convex if ?e, e0 ? D , F (e) > F (e0 ) ? h?F (e), e0 ? ei < 0 , where h., .i is the canonical dot product on Rd . 2 Moreover, F is pseudo-linear if both F and ?F are pseudo-convex. The important property of pseudo-linear functions is that their level sets are hyperplanes (intersected with the domain), and that sublevel and superlevel sets are half-spaces, all of these hyperplanes being defined by the gradient. In practice, working with gradients of non-linear functions may be cumbersome, so we will use the following characterization, which is a rephrasing of [3, Theorem 3.3.9]: Theorem 1 ([3]) A non-constant function F : D ? R, defined and differentiable on the open convex set D ? Rd , is pseudo-linear on D if and only if ?e ? D , ?F (e) 6= 0 , and: ?a : R ? Rd and ?b : R ? R such that, for any t in the image of F : F (e) ? t ? ha(t), ei + b(t) ? 0 and F (e) ? t ? ha(t) , ei + b(t) ? 0 . Pseudo-linearity is the main property of fractional-linear functions (ratios of linear functions). Indeed, let us consider F : e ? Rd 7? (? + h?, ei)/(? + h?, ei) with ?, ? ? R and ? and ? in Rd . If we restrict the domain of F to the set {e ? Rd |? + h?, ei > 0}, then, for all t in the image of F and all e in its domain, we have: F (e) ? t ? ht? ? ?, ei + t? ? ? ? 0 , and the analogous equivalence obtained by reversing the inequalities holds as well; the function thus satisfies the conditions of Theorem 1. As we shall see, many F -scores can be written as fractional-linear functions. 2.2 Error Profiles and F -Measures For all classification tasks (binary, multiclass and multilabel), the F -measures we consider are functions of per-class recall and precision, which themselves are defined in terms of the marginal probabilities of classes and the per-class false negative/false positive probabilities. The marginal probabilities of label k will be denoted by Pk , and the per-class false negative/false positive probabilities of a classifier h are denoted by FNk (h) and FPk (h). Their definitions are given below: (binary/multiclass) Pk = ?({(x, y)|y = k}), FNk (h) = ?({(x, y)|y = k and h(x) 6= k}) , FPk (h) = ?({(x, y)|y 6= k and h(x) = k}) . (multilabel) Pk = ?({(x, y)|y ? k}), FNk (h) = ?({(x, y)|k ? y and k ? 6 h(x)}) , FPk (h) = ?({(x, y)|y 6? k and k ? h(x)}) . These probabilities of a classifier h are then summarized by the error profile E(h):  E(h) = FN1 (h) , FP1 (h) , ..., FNL (h) , FPL (h) ? R2L , so that e2k?1 is the false negative probability for class k and e2k is the false positive probability. Binary Classification In binary classification, we have FN2 = FP1 and we write F -measures only by reference to class 1. Then, for any ? > 0 and any binary classifier h, the F? -measure is F? (h) = (1 + ? 2 )(P1 ? FN1 (h)) . (1 + ? 2 )P1 ? FN1 (h) + FP1 (h) The F1 -measure, which is the most widely used, corresponds to the case ? = 1. We can immediately notice that F? is fractional-linear, hence pseudo-convex, with respect to FN1 and FP1 . Thus, with a slight (yet convenient) abuse of notation, we write the F? -measure for binary classification as a function of vectors in R4 = R2L which represent error profiles of classifiers: (binary) ?e ? R4 , F? (e) = (1 + ? 2 )(P1 ? e1 ) . (1 + ? 2 )P1 ? e1 + e2 Multilabel Classification In multilabel classification, there are several definitions of F -measures. For those based on the error profiles, we first have the macro-F -measures (denoted by M F? ), which is the average over class labels of the F? -measures of each binary classification problem associated to the prediction of the presence/absence of a given class: L (multilabel?M acro) M F? (e) = 1 X (1 + ? 2 )(P ? e2k?1 ) . L (1 + ? 2 )P ? e2k?1 + e2k k=1 3 M F? is not a pseudo-linear function of an error profile e. However, if the multi-label classification algorithm learns independent binary classifiers for each class (a method known as one-vs-rest or binary relevance [23]), then each binary problem becomes independent and optimizing the macroF -score boils down to independently maximizing the F? -score for L binary classification problems, so that optimizing M F? is similar to optimizing F? in binary classification. There are also micro-F -measures for multilabel classification. They correspond to F? -measures for a new binary classification problem over X ? L, in which one maps a multilabel classifier ? : X ? L ? {0, 1}: we h : X ? Y (Y is here the power set of L) to the following binary classifier h ? have h(x, k) = 1 if k ? h(x), and 0 otherwise. The micro-F? -measure, written as a function of an ? and can be written as: error profile e and denoted by mF? (e), is the F? -score of h PL (1 + ? 2 ) k=1 (Pk ? e2k?1 ) (multilabel?micro) mF? (e) = . PL PL (1 + ? 2 ) k=1 Pk + k=1 (e2k ? e2k?1 ) This function is also fractional-linear, and thus pseudo-linear as a function of e. A third notion of F? -measure can be used in multilabel classification, namely the per-instance F? studied e.g. by [16, 17, 6, 4, 5]. The per-instance F? is defined as the average, over instances x, of the binary F? -measure for the problem of classifying labels given x. This corresponds to a specific F? -maximization problem for each x and is not directly captured by our framework, because we would need to solve different cost-sensitive classification problems for each instance. Multiclass Classification The last example we take is from multiclass classification. It differs from multilabel classification in that a single class must be predicted for each example. This restriction imposes strong global constraints that make the task significantly harder. As for the multillabel case, there are many definitions of F -measures for multiclass classification, and in fact several definitions for the micro-F -measure itself. We will focus on the following one, which is used in information extraction (e.g. in the BioNLP challenge [12]). Given L class labels, we will assume that label 1 corresponds to a ?default? class, the prediction of which is considered as not important. In information extraction, the ?default? class corresponds to the (majority) case where no information should be extracted. Then, a false negative is an example (x, y) such that y 6= 1 and h(x) 6= y, while a false positive is an example (x, y) such that y = 1 and h(x) 6= y. This micro-F -measure, denoted mcF? can be written as: PL (1 + ? 2 )(1 ? P1 ? k=2 e2k?1 ) (multiclass?micro) mcF? (e) = . PL (1 + ? 2 )(1 ? P1 ) ? k=2 e2k?1 + e1 Once again, this kind of micro-F? -measure is pseudo-linear with respect to e. Remark 2 (Training and generalization performance) Our results concern a fixed distribution ?, while the goal is to find a classifier with high generalization performance. With our notation, our ? and our implicit goal is to perform empirical risk minimizationresults apply to ? = P or ? = P,  type learning, that is, to find a classifier with high value of F?P EP (h) by maximizing its empirical   ? ? counterpart F?P EP (h) (the superscripts here make the underlying distribution explicit). Remark 3 (Expected Utility Maximization (EUM) vs Decision-Theoretic Approach (DTA)) Nan et al. [15] propose two possible definitions of the generalization performance in terms of F? -scores. In the first framework, called EUM, the population-level F? -score is defined as the F? -score of the population-level error profiles. In contrast, the Decision-Theoretic approach defines the population-level F? -score as the expected value of the F? -score over the distribution of test sets. The EUM definition of generalization performance matches our framework using ? = P: in that sense, we follow the EUM framework. Nonetheless, regardless of how we define the generalization performance, our results can be used to maximize the empirical value of the F? -score. 3 Optimizing F -Measures by Reduction to Cost-Sensitive Classification The F -measures presented above are non-linear aggregations of false negative/positive probabilities that cannot be written in the usual expected loss minimization framework; usual learning algorithms are thus, intrinsically, not designed to optimize this kind of performance metrics. 4 In this section, we show in Proposition 4 that the optimal classifier for a cost-sensitive classification problem with label dependent costs [7, 24] is also an optimal classifier for the pseudo-linear F measures (within a specific, yet arbitrary classifier set H). In cost-sensitive classification, each entry of the error profile is weighted by a non-negative cost, and the goal is to minimize the weighted average error. Efficient, consistent algorithms exist for such cost-sensitive problems [1, 22, 21]. Even though the costs corresponding to the optimal F -score are not known a priori, we show in Proposition 5 that we can approximate the optimal classifier with approximate costs. These costs, explicitly expressed in terms of the optimal F -score, motivate a practical algorithm. 3.1 Reduction to Cost-Sensitive Classification In this section, F : D ? Rd ? R is a fixed pseudo-linear function. We denote by a : R ? Rd the function mapping values of F to the corresponding hyperplane of Theorem 1. We assume that the distribution ? is fixed, as well as the (arbitrary) set of classifier H. We denote by E (H) the closure of the image of H under E, i.e. E (H) = cl({E(h) , h ? H}) (the closure ensures that E (H) is compact and that minima/maxima are well-defined), and we assume E (H) ? D. Finally, for the sake of discussion with cost-sensitive classification, we assume that a(t) ? Rd+ for any e ? E (H), that is, lower values of errors entail higher values of F .  Proposition 4 Let F ? = 0max F (e0 ). We have: e ? argmin a F ? , e0 ? F (e) = F ? e ?E(H) e0 ?E(H)  Proof Let e? ? argmaxe0 ?E(H) F (e0 ), and let a? = a(F (e? )) = a F ? . We first notice that pseudo-linearity implies that the set of e ? D such that ha? , ei = ha? , e? i corresponds to the level set {e ? D|F (e) = F (e? ) = F ? }. Thus, we only need to show that e? is a minimizer of e0 7? ha? , e0 i in E (H). To see this, we notice that pseudo-linearity implies ?e0 ? D, F (e? ) ? F (e0 ) ? ha? , e? i ? ha? , e0 i from which we immediately get e? ? argmine0 ?E(H) ha? , e0 i since e? maximizes F in E (H).   The proposition shows that a F ? are the costs that should be assigned to the error profilein order to find the F -optimal classifier in H. Hence maximizing F amounts to minimizing a F ? , E(h) with respect to h, that is, amounts to solving a cost-sensitive classification problem. The costs a F ? are, however, not known a priori (because F ? is not known in general). The following result shows that having only approximate costs is sufficient to have an approximately F -optimal solution, which gives us the main step towards a practical solution: Proposition 5 Let ?0 ? 0 and ?1 ? 0, and assume that there exists ? > 0 such that for all e, e0 ? E (H) satisfying F (e0 ) > F (e), we have: F (e0 ) ? F (e) ? ? ha(F (e0 )) , e ? e0 i . (1) ? 0 ? ? Then, let us take e ? argmaxe0 ?E(H) F (e ), and denote a = a(F (e )). Let furthermore g ? Rd+ and h ? H satisfying the two following conditions: (ii) hg, E(h)i ? 0 min hg, e0 i + ?1 . (i) k g ? a? k2 ? ?0 e ?E(H) F (E(h)) ? F (e? ) ? ? ? (2?0 M + ?1 ) , where M = 0max k e0 k2 . We have: e ?E(H) Proof Let e0 ? E (H). By writing hg, e0 i = hg ? a? , e0 i + ha? , e0 i and applying Cauchy-Schwarz inequality to hg ? a? , e0 i we get hg, e0 i ? ha? , e0 i + ?0 M using condition (i). Consequently min hg, e0 i ? 0 min ha? , e0 i + ?0 M = ha? , e? i + ?0 M (2) 0 e ?E(H) e ?E(H) Where the equality is given by Proposition 4. Now, let e = E(h), assuming that classifier h satisfies condition (ii). Using ha? , ei = ha? ? g, ei + hg, ei and Cauchy-Shwarz, we obtain: ha? , ei ? hg, ei + ?0 M ? 0 min hg, e0 i + ?1 + ?0 M ? ha? , e? i + ?1 + 2?0 M , e ?E(H) where the first inequality comes from condition (ii) and the second inequality comes from (2). The final result is obtained by plugging this inequality into (1).  5 Before discussing this result, we first give explicit values of a and ? for pseudo-linear F -measures: Proposition 6 F? , mF? and mcF? defined in Section 2 satisfy the conditions of Proposition 5 with: (binary) F? : ?= (multilabel?micro) mF? : ?= (multiclass?micro) mcF? : ?= 1 ?2P ? and a : t ? [0, 1] 7? (1 + ? 2 ? t, t, 0, 0) . 1 1 P L 2 k=1 Pk 1 2 ? (1 ? P1 ) 1 + ?2 ? t t ? 2 ?1 + ? ? t and ai (t) = t ? 0  and ai (t) = if i is odd . if i is even if i is odd and i 6= 1 . if i = 1 otherwise The proof is given in the longer version of the paper, and the values of ? and a are valid for any set of classifiers H. Note that the result on F? for binary classification can be used for the macro-F? measure in multilabel classification when training one binary classifier per label. Also, the relative costs (1+? 2 ?t) for false negative and t for false positive imply that for the F1 -measure, the optimal classifier is the solution of the cost-sensitive binary problem with costs (1 ? F ? /2), F ? /2. If we take H as the set of all measurable functions, the Bayes-optimal classifier for this cost is to predict class 1 when ?(y = 1|x) ? F ? /2 (see e.g. [22]). Our propositions thus extends this known result [13] to the non-asymptotic regime and to an arbitrary set of classifiers. 3.2 Practical Algorithm Our results suggests that the optimization of pseudo-linear F -measures should wrap cost-sensitive classification algorithms, used in an inner loop, by an outer loop setting the appropriate costs. In practice, since the function a : [0, 1] ? Rd , which assigns costs to probabilities of error, is Lipschitz-continuous (with constant 2 on our examples), it is sufficient to discretize the interval [0, 1] to have a set of evenly spaced values {t1 , ..., tC } (say, tj+1 ? tj = ?0 /2) to obtain an ?0 -cover {a(t1 ), ..., a(tC )} of the possible costs. Using the approximate guarantee of Proposition 5, learning a cost-sensitive classifier for each a(ti ) and selecting the one with optimal F -measure a posteriori is sufficient to obtain a M ?(2?0 + ?1 )-optimal solution, where ?1 is the approximation guarantee of the cost-sensitive classification algorithm. This meta-algorithm can be instantiated with any learning algorithm and different F -measures. In our experiments of Section 4, we first use it with cost-sensitive binary classification algorithms: Support Vector Machines (SVMs) and logistic regression, both with asymmetric costs [2], to optimize the F1 -measure in binary classification and the macro-F1 -score in multilabel classification (training one-vs-rest classifiers). Musicant et al. [14] also advocated for SVMs with asymmetric costs for F1 -measure optimization in binary classification. However, their argument, specific to SVMs, is not methodological but technical (relaxation of the maximization problem). 4 Experiments The goal of this section is to give illustration of the algorithms suggested by the theory. First, our results suggest that cost-sensitive classification algorithms may be preferable to the more usual probability thresholding method. We compare cost-sensitive classification, as implemented by SVMs with asymmetric costs, to thresholded logistic regression, with linear classifiers. Besides, the structured SVM approach to F1 -measure maximization SVMperf [11] provides another baseline. For completeness, we also report results for thresholded SVMs, cost-sensitive logistic regression, and for the thresholded versions of SVMperf and the cost-sensitive algorithms (a thresholded algorithm means that the decision threshold is tuned a posteriori by maximizing the F1 -score on the validation set). Cost-sensitive SVMs and logistic regression (LR) differ in the loss they optimize (weighted hinge loss for SVMs, weighted log-loss for LR), and even though both losses are calibrated in the costsensitive setting (that is, converging toward a Bayes-optimal classifier as the number of examples and the capacity of the class of function grow to infinity) [22], they behave differently on finite datasets or with restricted classes of functions. We may also note that asymptotically, the Bayes-classifier for 6 before thresholding after thresholding 4 3 3 2 2 x2 x2 4 1 1 0 0 ?3 ?2 ?1 x1 0 1 2 ?3 ?2 ?1 x1 0 1 2 Figure 1: Decision boundaries for the galaxy dataset before and after thresholding the classifier scores of SVMperf (dotted, blue), cost-sensitive SVM (dot-dashed, cyan), logistic regression (solid, red), and cost-sensitive logistic regression (dashed, green). The horizontal black dotted line is an optimal decision boundary. a cost-sensitive binary classification problem is a classifier which thresholds the posterior probability of being class 1. Thus, all methods but SVMperf are asymptotically equivalent, and our goal here is to analyze their non-asymptotic behavior on a restricted class of functions. Although our theoretical developments do not indicate any need to threshold the scores of classifiers, the practical benefits of a post-hoc adjustment of these scores can be important in terms of F1 measure maximization. The reason is that the decision threshold given by cost-sensitive SVMs or logistic regression might not be optimal in terms of the cost-sensitive 0/1-error, as already noted in cost-sensitive learning scenarios [10, 2]. This is illustrated in Figure 1, on the didactic ?Galaxy? distribution, consisting in four clusters of 2D-examples, indexed by z ? {1, 2, 3, 4}, with prior probability P(z = 1) = 0.01, P(z = 2) = 0.1, P(z = 3) = 0.001, and P(z = 4) = 0.889, with respective class conditional probabilities P(y = 1|z = 1) = 0.9, P(y = 1|z = 2) = 0.09, P(y = 1|z = 3) = 0.9, and P(y = 1|z = 4) = 0. We drew a very large sample (100,000 examples) from the distribution, whose optimal F1 -measure is 67.5%. Without tuning the decision threshold of the classifiers, the best F1 -measure among the classifiers is 55.3%, obtained by SVMperf , whereas tuning thresholds enables to reach the optimal F1 -measure for SVMperf and cost-sensitive SVM. On the other hand, LR is severely affected by the non-linearity of the level sets of the posterior probability distribution, and does not reach this limit (best F1 -score of 48.9%). Note also that even with this very large sample size, the SVM and LR classifiers are very different. The datasets we use are Adult (binary classification, 32,561/16,281 train/test ex., 123 features), Letter (single label multiclass, 26 classes, 20,000 ex., 16 features), and two text datasets: the 20 Newsgroups dataset News201 (single label multiclass, 20 classes, 15,935/3,993 train/test ex., 62,061 features, scaled version) and Siam2 (multilabel, 22 classes, 21,519/7,077 train/test ex., 30,438 features). All datasets except for News20 and Siam are obtained from the UCI repository3 . For each experiment, the training set was split at random, keeping 1/3 for the validation set used to select all hyper-parameters, based on the maximization of the F1 -measure on this set. For datasets that do not come with a separate test set, the data was first split to keep 1/4 for test. The algorithms have from one to three hyper-parameters: (i) all algorithms are run with L2 regularization, with a regularization parameter C ? {2?6 , 2?5 , ..., 26 }; (ii) for the cost-sensitive algorithms, the cost for 4 false negatives is chosen in { 2?t t , t ? {0.1, 0.2, ..., 1.9}} of Proposition 6 ; (iii) for the thresholded algorithms, the threshold is chosen among all the scores of the validation examples. 1 http://www.csie.ntu.edu.tw/?cjlin/libsvmtools/datasets/multiclass. html#news20 2 http://www.csie.ntu.edu.tw/?cjlin/libsvmtools/datasets/multilabel. html#siam-competition2007 3 https://archive.ics.uci.edu/ml/datasets.html 4 We take t greater than 1 in case the training asymmetry would be different from the true asymmetry [2]. 7 Table 1: (macro-)F1 -measures (in %). Options: T stands for thresholded, CS for cost-sensitive and CS&T for cost-sensitive and thresholded. Baseline SVMperf SVMperf SVM SVM SVM LR LR LR Options ? T T CS CS & T T CS CS & T Adult 67.3 67.9 67.8 67.9 67.8 67.8 67.9 67.8 Letter 52.5 60.8 63.1 63.2 63.8 61.2 59.9 62.1 News20 59.5 78.7 82.0 81.7 82.4 81.2 81.1 81.5 Siam 49.4 52.8 52.6 51.9 54.9 53.9 53.8 54.4 The library LibLinear [9] was used to implement SVMs5 and Logistic Regression (LR). A constant feature with value 100 was added to each dataset to mimic an unregularized offset. The results, averaged over five random splits, are reported in Table 1. As expected, the difference between methods is less extreme than on the artificial ?Galaxy? dataset. The Adult dataset is an example where all methods perform nearly identically; the surrogate loss used in practice seems unimportant. On the other datasets, we observe that thresholding has a rather large impact, and especially for SVMperf ; this is also true for the other classifiers: the unthresholded SVM and LR with symmetric costs (unreported here) were not competitive as well. The cost-sensitive (thresholded) SVM outperforms all other methods, as suggested by the theory. It is probably the method of choice when predictive performance is a must. On these datasets, thresholded LR behaves reasonably well considering its relatively low computational cost. Indeed, LR is much faster than SVM: in their thresholded cost-sensitive versions, the timings for LR on News20 and Siam datasets are 6,400 and 8,100 seconds, versus 255,000 and 147,000 seconds for SVM respectively. Note that we did not try to optimize the running time in our experiments. In particular, considerable time savings could be achieved by using warm-start. 5 Conclusion We presented an analysis of F -measures, leveraging the property of pseudo-linearity of some of them to obtain a strong non-asymptotic reduction to cost-sensitive classification. The results hold for any dataset and for any class of function. Our experiments on linear functions confirm theory, by demonstrating the practical interest of using cost-sensitive classification algorithms rather than using a simple probability thresholding. However, they also reveal that, for F -measure maximization, thresholding the solutions provided by cost-sensitive algorithms further improves performances. Algorithmically and empirically, we only explored the simplest case of our result (F? -measure in binary classification and macro-F? -measure in multilabel classification), but much more remains to be done. First, the strategy we use for searching the optimal costs is a simple uniform discretization procedure, and more efficient exploration techniques could probably be developped. Second, algorithms for the optimization of the micro-F? -measure in multilabel classification received interest recently as well [8, 19], but are for now limited to the selection of threshold after any kind of training. New methods for that measure may be designed from our reduction; we also believe that our result can lead to progresses towards optimizing the micro-F? measure in multiclass classification. Acknowledgments This work was carried out and funded in the framework of the Labex MS2T. It was supported by the Picardy Region and the French Government, through the program ?Investments for the future? managed by the National Agency for Research (Reference ANR-11-IDEX-0004-02). References [1] N. Abe, B. Zadrozny, and J. Langford. An iterative method for multi-class cost-sensitive learning. In W. Kim, R. Kohavi, J. Gehrke, and W. DuMouchel, editors, KDD, pages 3?11. ACM, 2004. [2] F. R. Bach, D. Heckerman, and E. Horvitz. Considering cost asymmetry in learning classifiers. J. Mach. Learn. Res., 7:1713?1741, December 2006. 5 The maximum number of iteration for SVMs was set to 50,000 instead of the default 1,000. 8 [3] A. Cambini and L. Martein. Generalized Convexity and Optimization, volume 616 of Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems. Springer, 2009. [4] W. Cheng, K. Dembczynski, E. H?ullermeier, A. Jaroszewicz, and W. Waegeman. F-measure maximization in topical classification. In J. Yao, Y. Yang, R. Slowinski, S. Greco, H. Li, S. Mitra, and L. Polkowski, editors, RSCTC, volume 7413 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pages 439?446. Springer, 2012. [5] K. Dembczynski, A. Jachnik, W. Kotlowski, W. Waegeman, and E. H?ullermeier. Optimizing the Fmeasure in multi-label classification: Plug-in rule approach versus structured loss minimization. In S. Dasgupta and D. Mcallester, editors, Proceedings of the 30th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML-13), volume 28, pages 1130?1138. JMLR Workshop and Conference Proceedings, May 2013. [6] K. Dembczynski, W. Waegeman, W. Cheng, and E. H?ullermeier. An exact algorithm for F-measure maximization. In J. Shawe-Taylor, R. S. Zemel, P. L. Bartlett, F. C. N. Pereira, and K. Q. Weinberger, editors, NIPS, pages 1404?1412, 2011. [7] C. Elkan. The foundations of cost-sensitive learning. In International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, volume 17, pages 973?978, 2001. [8] R. E. Fan and C. J. Lin. A study on threshold selection for multi-label classification. Technical report, National Taiwan University, 2007. [9] R.-E. Fan, K.-W. Chang, C.-J. Hsieh, X.-R. Wang, and C.-J. Lin. Liblinear: A library for large linear classification. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 9:1871?1874, 2008. [10] Y. Grandvalet, J. Mari?ethoz, and S. Bengio. A probabilistic interpretation of SVMs with an application to unbalanced classification. In NIPS, 2005. [11] T. Joachims. A support vector method for multivariate performance measures. In Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 377?384. ACM Press, 2005. [12] J.-D. Kim, Y. Wang, and Y. Yasunori. The genia event extraction shared task, 2013 edition - overview. In Proceedings of the BioNLP Shared Task 2013 Workshop, pages 8?15, Sofia, Bulgaria, August 2013. Association for Computational Linguistics. [13] Z. C. Lipton, C. Elkan, and B. Naryanaswamy. Optimal thresholding of classifiers to maximize F1 measure. In T. Calders, F. Esposito, E. H?ullermeier, and R. Meo, editors, Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, volume 8725 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pages 225?239. Springer, 2014. [14] D. R. Musicant, V. Kumar, and A. Ozgur. Optimizing F-measure with support vector machines. In Proceedings of the FLAIRS Conference, pages 356?360, 2003. [15] Y. Nan, K. M. A. Chai, W. S. Lee, and H. L. Chieu. Optimizing F-measures: A tale of two approaches. In ICML. icml.cc / Omnipress, 2012. [16] J. Petterson and T. S. Caetano. Reverse multi-label learning. In NIPS, volume 1, pages 1912?1920, 2010. [17] J. Petterson and T. S. Caetano. Submodular multi-label learning. In NIPS, pages 1512?1520, 2011. [18] I. Pillai, G. Fumera, and F. 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Analysis of Learning from Positive and Unlabeled Data Marthinus C. du Plessis The University of Tokyo Tokyo, 113-0033, Japan christo@ms.k.u-tokyo.ac.jp Gang Niu Baidu Inc. Beijing, 100085, China niugang@baidu.com Masashi Sugiyama The University of Tokyo Tokyo, 113-0033, Japan sugi@k.u-tokyo.ac.jp Abstract Learning a classifier from positive and unlabeled data is an important class of classification problems that are conceivable in many practical applications. In this paper, we first show that this problem can be solved by cost-sensitive learning between positive and unlabeled data. We then show that convex surrogate loss functions such as the hinge loss may lead to a wrong classification boundary due to an intrinsic bias, but the problem can be avoided by using non-convex loss functions such as the ramp loss. We next analyze the excess risk when the class prior is estimated from data, and show that the classification accuracy is not sensitive to class prior estimation if the unlabeled data is dominated by the positive data (this is naturally satisfied in inlier-based outlier detection because inliers are dominant in the unlabeled dataset). Finally, we provide generalization error bounds and show that, for an equal number of labeled and unlabeled samples, the generalization ? error of learning only from positive and unlabeled samples is no worse than 2 2 times the fully supervised case. These theoretical findings are also validated through experiments. 1 Introduction Let us consider the problem of learning a classifier from positive and unlabeled data (PU classification), which is aimed at assigning labels to the unlabeled dataset [1]. PU classification is conceivable in various applications such as land-cover classification [2], where positive samples (built-up urban areas) can be easily obtained, but negative samples (rural areas) are too diverse to be labeled. Outlier detection in unlabeled data based on inlier data can also be regarded as PU classification [3, 4]. In this paper, we first explain that, if the class prior in the unlabeled dataset is known, PU classification can be reduced to the problem of cost-sensitive classification [5] between positive and unlabeled data. Thus, in principle, the PU classification problem can be solved by a standard cost-sensitive classifier such as the weighted support vector machine [6]. The goal of this paper is to give new insight into this PU classification algorithm. Our contributions are three folds: ? The use of convex surrogate loss functions such as the hinge loss may potentially lead to a wrong classification boundary being selected, even when the underlying classes are completely separable. To obtain the correct classification boundary, the use of non-convex loss functions such as the ramp loss is essential. 1 ? When the class prior in the unlabeled dataset is estimated from data, the classification error is governed by what we call the effective class prior that depends both on the true class prior and the estimated class prior. In addition to gaining intuition behind the classification error incurred in PU classification, a practical outcome of this analysis is that the classification error is not sensitive to class-prior estimation error if the unlabeled data is dominated by positive data. This would be useful in, e.g., inlier-based outlier detection scenarios where inlier samples are dominant in the unlabeled dataset [3, 4]. This analysis can be regarded as an extension of traditional analysis of class priors in ordinary classification scenarios [7, 8] to PU classification. ? We establish generalization error bounds for PU classification. For an?equal number of positive and unlabeled samples, the convergence rate is no worse than 2 2 times the fully supervised case. Finally, we numerically illustrate the above theoretical findings through experiments. 2 PU classification as cost-sensitive classification In this section, we show that the problem of PU classification can be cast as cost-sensitive classification. Ordinary classification: The Bayes optimal classifier corresponds to the decision function f (X) ? {1, ?1} that minimizes the expected misclassification rate w.r.t. a class prior of ?: R(f ) := ?R1 (f ) + (1 ? ?)R?1 (f ), where R?1 (f ) and R1 (f ) denote the expected false positive rate and expected false negative rate: R?1 (f ) = P?1 (f (X) ?= ?1) and R1 (f ) = P1 (f (X) ?= 1), and P1 and P?1 denote the marginal probabilities of positive and negative samples. In the empirical risk minimization framework, the above risk is replaced with their empirical versions obtained from fully labeled data, leading to practical classifiers [9]. Cost-sensitive classification: A cost-sensitive classifier selects a function f (X) ? {1, ?1} in order to minimize the weighted expected misclassification rate: R(f ) := ?c1 R1 (f ) + (1 ? ?)c?1 R?1 (f ), (1) where c1 and c?1 are the per-class costs [5]. Since scaling does not matter in (1), it is often useful to interpret the per-class costs as reweighting the problem according to new class priors proportional to ?c1 and (1 ? ?)c?1 . PU classification: In PU classification, a classifier is learned using labeled data drawn from the positive class P1 and unlabeled data that is a mixture of positive and negative samples with unknown class prior ?: PX = ?P1 + (1 ? ?)P?1 . Since negative samples are not available, let us train a classifier to minimize the expected misclassification rate between positive and unlabeled samples. Since we do not have negative samples in the PU classification setup, we cannot directly estimate R?1 (f ) and thus we rewrite the risk R(f ) not to include R?1 (f ). More specifically, let RX (f ) be the probability that the function f (X) gives the positive label over PX [10]: RX (f ) = PX (f (X) = 1) = ?P1 (f (X) = 1) + (1 ? ?)P?1 (f (X) = 1) = ?(1 ? R1 (f )) + (1 ? ?)R?1 (f ). 2 (2) Then the risk R(f ) can be written as R(f ) = ?R1 (f ) + (1 ? ?)R?1 (f ) = ?R1 (f ) ? ?(1 ? R1 (f )) + RX (f ) = 2?R1 (f ) + RX (f ) ? ?. (3) Let ? be the proportion of samples from P1 compared to PX , which is empirically estimated by n ? n+n? where n and n denote the numbers of positive and unlabeled samples, respectively. The risk R(f ) can then be expressed as R(f ) = c1 ?R1 (f ) + cX (1 ? ?)RX (f ) ? ?, where c1 = 2? ? and cX = 1 . 1?? Comparing this expression with (1), we can confirm that the PU classification problem is solved by cost-sensitive classification between positive and unlabeled data with costs c1 and cX . Some implementations of support vector machines, such as libsvm [6], allow for assigning weights to classes. In practice, the unknown class prior ? may be estimated by the methods proposed in [10, 1, 11]. In the following sections, we analyze this algorithm. 3 Necessity of non-convex loss functions in PU classification In this section, we show that solving the PU classification problem with a convex loss function may lead to a biased solution, and the use of a non-convex loss function is essential to avoid this problem. Loss functions in ordinary classification: We first consider ordinary classification problems where samples from both classes are available. Instead of a binary decision function f (X) ? {?1, 1}, a continuous decision function g(X) ? R such that sign(g(X)) = f (X) is learned. The loss function then becomes J0-1 (g) = ?E1 [?0-1 (g(X))] + (1 ? ?)E?1 [?0-1 (?g(X))] , where Ey is the expectation over Py and ?0-1 (z) is the zero-one loss: { 0 z > 0, ?0-1 (z) = 1 z ? 0. Since the zero-one loss is hard to optimize in practice due to its discontinuous nature, it may be replaced with a ramp loss (as illustrated in Figure 1): ?R (z) = 1 max(0, min(2, 1 ? z)), 2 giving an objective function of JR (g) = ?E1 [?R (g(X))] + (1 ? ?)E?1 [?R (?g(X))] . (4) To avoid the non-convexity of the ramp loss, the hinge loss is often preferred in practice: ?H (z) = 1 max(1 ? z, 0), 2 giving an objective of JH (g) = ?E1 [?H (g(X))] + (1 ? ?)E?1 [?H (?g(X))] . (5) One practical motivation to use the convex hinge loss instead of the non-convex ramp loss is that separability (i.e., ming JR (g) = 0) implies ?R (z) = 0 everywhere, and for all values of z for which ?R (z) = 0, we have ?H (z) = 0. Therefore, the convex hinge loss will give the same decision boundary as the non-convex ramp loss in the ordinary classification setup, under the assumption that the positive and negative samples are non-overlapping. 3 ?H (z) ?H (z) + ?H (?z) ?R (z) = 21 max(0, min(2, 1?z)) ?H (z) = 1 2 max(0, 1?z) 1 1 ?R (z) ?R (z) + ?R (?z) 1 2 ?1 ?1 1 (a) Loss functions 1 (b) Resulting penalties Figure 1: ?R (z) denotes the ramp loss, and ?H (z) denotes the hinge loss. ?R (z)+?R (?z) is constant but ?H (z) + ?H (?z) is not and therefore causes a superfluous penalty. Ramp loss function in PU classification: An important question is whether the same interpretation will hold for PU classification: can the PU classification problem be solved by using the convex hinge loss? As we show below, the answer to this question is unfortunately ?no?. In PU classification, the risk is given by (3), and its ramp-loss version is given by JPU-R (g) = 2?R1 (f ) + RX (f ) ? ? = 2?E1 [?R (g(X))] + [?E1 [?R (?g(X))] + (1 ? ?)E?1 [?R (?g(X))]] ? ? = ?E1 [?R (g(X))] + ?E1 [?R (g(X)) + ?R (?g(X))] + (1 ? ?)E?1 [?R (?g(X))] ? ?, (6) (7) (8) where (6) comes from (3) and (7) is due to the substitution of (2). Since the ramp loss is symmetric in the sense of ?R (?z) + ?R (z) = 1, (8) yields JPU-R (g) = ?E1 [?R (g(X))] + (1 ? ?)E?1 [?R (?g(X))] . (9) (9) is essentially the same as (4), meaning that learning with the ramp loss in the PU classification setting will give the same classification boundary as in the ordinary classification setting. For non-convex optimization with the ramp loss, see [12, 13]. Hinge loss function in PU classification: On the other hand, using the hinge loss to minimize (3) for PU learning gives JPU-H (g) = 2?E1 [?H (g(X))] + [?E1 [?H (?g(X))] + (1 ? ?)E?1 [?H (?g(X))]] ? ?, (10) = ?E1 [?H (g(X))] + (1 ? ?)E?1 [?H (?g(X))] + ?E1 [?H (g(X)) + ?H (?g(X))] ??. {z } | {z } | Ordinary error term, cf. (5) Superfluous penalty We see that the hinge loss has a term that corresponds to (5), but it also has a superfluous penalty term (see also Figure 1). This penalty term may cause an incorrect classification boundary to be selected. Indeed, even if g(X) perfectly separates the data, it may not minimize JPU-H (g) due to the superfluous penalty. To obtain the correct decision boundary, the loss function should be symmetric (and therefore non-convex). Alternatively, since the superfluous penalty term can be evaluated, it can be subtracted from the objective function. Note that, for the problem of label noise, an identical symmetry condition has been obtained [14]. Illustration: We illustrate the failure of the hinge loss on a toy PU classification problem with class conditional densities of: ( ) ( ) p(x|y = 1) = N ?3, 12 and p(x|y = 1) = N 3, 12 , where N (?, ? 2 ) is a normal distribution with mean ? and variance ? 2 . The hinge-loss objective function for PU classification, JPU-H (g), is minimized with a model of g(x) = wx + b (the expectations in the objective function is computed via numerical integration). The optimal decision 4 0.01 1 p(x) 0.4 0.2 Optimal Hinge Loss Misclassification rate Threshold p(x|y=1) p(x|y=?1) 0.5 0 ?0.5 ?1 0 ?6 ?3 0 x 3 6 0.1 0.3 0.5 ? 0.7 0.9 0.008 Optimal Hinge 0.006 0.004 0.002 0 0.1 0.3 0.5 ? 0.7 0.9 (a) Class-conditional densities of (b) Optimal threshold and threshold (c) The misclassification rate for the problem using the hinge loss the optimal and hinge loss case Figure 2: Illustration of the failure of the hinge loss for PU classification. The optimal threshold and the threshold estimated by the hinge loss differ significantly (Figure 2(b)), causing a difference in the misclassification rates (Figure 2(c)). The threshold for the ramp loss agrees with the optimal threshold. threshold and the threshold for the hinge loss is plotted in Figure 2(b) for a range of class priors. Note that the threshold for the ramp loss will correspond to the optimal threshold. From this figure, we note that the hinge-loss threshold differs from the optimal threshold. The difference is especially severe for larger class priors, due to the fact that the superfluous penalty is weighted by the class prior. When the class-prior is large enough, the large hinge-loss threshold causes all samples to be positively labeled. In such a case, the false negative rate is R1 = 0 but the false positive rate is R?1 = 1. Therefore, the overall misclassification rate for the hinge loss will be 1 ? ?. 4 Effect of inaccurate class-prior estimation To solve the PU classification problem by cost-sensitive learning described in Section 2, the true class prior ? is needed. However, since it is often unknown in practice, it needs to be estimated, e.g., by the methods proposed in [10, 1, 11]. Since many of the estimation methods are biased [1, 11], it is important to understand the influence of inaccurate class-prior estimation on the classification performance. In this section, we elucidate how the error in the estimated class prior ? b affects the classification accuracy in the PU classification setting. Risk with true class prior in ordinary classification: In the ordinary classification scenarios with positive and negative samples, the risk for a classifier f on a dataset with class prior ? is given as follows ([8, pp. 26?29] and [7]): R(f, ?) = ?R1 (f ) + (1 ? ?)R?1 (f ). The risk for the optimal classifier according to the class prior ? is therefore, R? (?) = min R(f, ?) f ?F Note that R? (?) is concave, since it is the minimum of a set of functions that are linear w.r.t. ?. This is illustrated in Figure 3(a). Excess risk with class prior estimation in ordinary classification: Suppose we have a classifier fb that minimizes the risk for an estimated class prior ? b: fb := arg min R(f, ? b). f ?F The risk when applying the classifier fb on a dataset with true class prior ? is then on the line tangent to the concave function R? (?) at ? = ? b, as illustrated in Figure 3(a): b R(?) = ?R1 (fb) + (1 ? ?)R?1 (fb). The function fb is suboptimal at ?, and results in the excess risk [8]: b E? = R(?) ? R(?). 5 1 0.95 0.9 b R? (?) = R(?) Risk Effective prior ? e b R(?) 0.2 ? = 0.95 ? = 0.9 ? = 0.7 ? = 0.5 0.8 E? 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 ? ? e 0 0.2 1 0.3 0.4 Class prior 0.5 0.6 0.7 Estimated prior ? b 0.8 0.9 0.95 1 (b) The effective class prior ? e vs. the estimated class prior ? b for different true class priors ?. (a) Selecting a classifier to minimize (11) and applying it to a dataset with class prior ? leads to an excess risk of E? . Figure 3: Learning in the PU framework with an estimated class prior ? b is equivalent to selecting a classifier which minimizes the risk according to an effective class prior ? e. (a) The difference between the effective class prior ? e and the true class prior ? causes an excess risk E? . (b) The effective class prior ? e depends on the true class prior ? and the estimated class prior ? b. Excess risk with class prior estimation in PU classification: We wish to select a classifier that minimizes the risk in (3). In practice, however, we only know an estimated class prior ? b. Therefore, a classifier is selected to minimize R(f ) = 2b ? R1 (f ) + RX (f ) ? ? b. (11) Expanding the above risk based on (2) gives R(f ) = 2b ? R1 (f ) + ?(1 ? R1 (f )) + (1 ? ?)R?1 (f ) ? ? b = (2b ? ? ?) R1 (f ) + (1 ? ?)R?1 (f ) + ? ? ? b. Thus, the estimated class prior affects the risk with respect to 2b ? ? ? and 1 ? ?. This result immediately shows that PU classification cannot be performed when the estimated class prior is less than half of the true class prior: ? b ? 12 ?. We define the effective class prior ? e so that 2b ? ? ? and 1 ? ? are normalized to sum to one: 2b ??? 2b ??? = . 2b ???+1?? 2b ? ? 2? + 1 Figure 3(b) shows the profile of the effective class prior ? e for different ?. The graph shows that when the true class prior ? is large, ? e tends to be flat around ?. When the true class prior is known to be large (such as the proportion of inliers in inlier-based outlier detection), a rough class-prior estimator is sufficient to have a good classification performance. On the other hand, if the true class prior is small, PU classification tends to be hard and an accurate class-prior estimator is necessary. ? e= We also see that when the true class prior is large, overestimation of the class prior is more attenuated. This may explain why some class-prior estimation methods [1, 11] still give a good practical performance in spite of having a positive bias. 5 Generalization error bounds for PU classification In this section, we analyze the generalization error for PU classification, when training samples are clearly not identically distributed. More specifically, we derive error bounds for the classification function f (x) of form f (x) = n ? ? ?i k(xi , x) + i=1 where x1 , . . . , xn are positive training data and A= {(?1 , . . . , ?n , ?1? , . . . , ?n? ? ) n ? ?j? k(x?j , x), j=1 x?1 , . . . , x?n? are positive and negative test data. Let | x1 , . . . , xn ? p(x | y = +1), x?1 , . . . , x?n? ? p(x)} 6 be the set of all possible optimal solutions returned by the algorithm given some training data and test data according to p(x | y = +1) and p(x). Then define the constants C? = sup??A,x1 ,...,xn ?p(x|y=+1),x?1 ,...,x? ? ?p(x) n )1/2 (? ?n? ? ? n n n? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? k(xi , xi? ) + 2 , x ) , ? k(x ? ? ? ? k(x , x ) + ? ? ? ? ? i i i i j j j j j,j =1 j j i,i =1 i=1 j=1 ? Ck = supx?Rd k(x, x), and define the function class F = {f : x 7? n ? ? ?i k(xi , x) + i=1 x1 , . . . , xn ? p(x | y = n ? ?j? k(x?j , x) | ? ? A, j=1 +1), x?1 , . . . , x?n? Let ?? (z) be a surrogate loss for the zero-one loss ? ?0 ?? (z) = 1 ? z/? ? 1 (12) ? p(x)}. if z > ?, if 0 < z ? ?, if z ? 0. For any ? > 0, ?? (z) is lower bounded by ?0-1 (z) and approaches ?0-1 (z) as ? approaches zero. Moreover, let e (x)) = 2 ?0-1 (yf (x)) and ?e? (yf (x)) = 2 ?? (yf (x)). ?(yf y+3 y+3 Then we have the following theorems (proofs are provided in Appendix A). Our key idea is to decompose the generalization error as [ ] [ ] e (x)) + E p(x,y) ?(yf e (x)) , E p(x,y) [?0-1 (yf (x))] = ? ? E p(x|y=+1) ?(f where ? ? := p(y = 1) is the true class prior of the positive class. Theorem 1. Fix f ? F , then, for any 0 < ? < 1, with probability at least 1 ? ? over the repeated sampling of {x1 , . . . , xn } and {(x?1 , y1? ), . . . , (x?n? , yn? ? )} for evaluating the empirical error,1 ( ? )? n? n 1 ?e ? ?? ? e ? 1 ln(2/?) ? ? +? E p(x,y) [?0-1 (yf (x))] ? ? ?(yj f (xj )) ? ?(f (xi )) + . ? n j=1 n i=1 2 2 n n (13) Theorem 2. Fix ? > 0, then, for any 0 < ? < 1 with probability at least 1 ? ? over the repeated sampling of {x1 , . . . , xn } and {(x?1 , y1? ), . . . , (x?n? , yn? ? )} for evaluating the empirical error, every f ? F satisfies ( ? ) n? n 1 ?e ? ?? ? e ? 2 C? Ck ? E p(x,y) [?0-1 (yf (x))] ? ? ?? (yj f (xj )) ? ?? (f (xi )) + ? + ? ? n j=1 n i=1 ? n n ? ( ? ) 1 ln(2/?) ? ? +? . + 2 2 n n? ? ? In both theorems, the generalization error bounds are of order O(1/ n + 1/ n? ). This order is optimal for PU classification where we have n i.i.d. data from a distribution and n? i.i.d. data from ? another distribution. The error bounds for fully ? supervised classification, by assuming these n + n ? data are all i.i.d., would be of order O(1/ n + n ). However, this assumption is unreasonable ? for PU classification, and we cannot train fully supervised classifiers ? using these n + n samples. ? ? Although the ? orders (and the ? losses) differ slightly, O(1/ n + 1/ n ) for PU classification is no worse than 2 2 times O(1/ n + n? ) for fully supervised classification (assuming n and n? are equal). To the best of our knowledge, no previous work has provided such generalization error bounds for PU classification. 1 The empirical error that we cannot evaluate in practice is in the left-hand side of (13), and the empirical error and confidence terms that we can evaluate in practice are in the right-hand side of (13). 7 Table 1: Misclassification rate (in percent) for PU classification on the USPS dataset. The best, and equivalent by 95% t-test, is indicated in bold. ? 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.95 Ramp Hinge Ramp Hinge Ramp Hinge Ramp Hinge Ramp Hinge Ramp Hinge 3.36 4.40 4.85 4.78 5.48 5.18 4.16 4.00 2.68 9.86 1.71 4.94 5.15 6.20 6.96 8.67 7.22 8.79 5.90 14.60 4.12 9.92 2.80 4.94 3.49 5.52 4.72 8.08 5.02 8.52 4.06 16.51 2.89 9.92 2.12 4.94 1.68 2.83 2.05 4.00 2.21 3.99 2.00 3.03 1.70 9.92 1.42 4.94 5.21 7.42 7.22 11.16 7.46 12.04 6.16 19.78 4.36 9.92 3.21 4.94 11.47 11.61 19.87 19.59 22.58 22.94 15.13 19.83 8.86 9.92 5.29 4.94 1.89 3.55 2.55 4.61 2.64 3.70 2.31 2.49 1.78 9.92 1.39 4.94 3.98 5.09 4.81 7.00 4.75 6.85 3.74 11.34 2.79 9.92 2.11 4.94 1.22 2.76 1.60 3.86 1.73 3.56 1.61 2.24 1.38 9.92 1.13 4.94 0 vs 1 0 vs 2 0 vs 3 0 vs 4 0 vs 5 0 vs 6 0 vs 7 0 vs 8 0 vs 9 3 5 5 Positive loss Negative loss 5 Hinge Ramp Positive 0 x2 x2 x2 Loss 2 0 0 1 Negative 0 ?2 ?1 0 z 1 (a) Loss functions 2 ?5 ?6 ?4 ?2 0 x 2 4 ?5 ?6 6 1 ?4 ?2 0 x1 2 4 6 ?5 ?6 ?4 ?2 0 x1 2 4 6 (b) Class prior is ? = 0.2 (c) Class prior is ? = 0.6 (d) Class prior is ? = 0.9. . Figure 4: Examples of the classification boundary for the ?0? vs. ?7? digits, obtained by PU learning. The unlabeled dataset and the underlying (latent) class labels are given. Since discriminant function for the hinge loss case is constant 1 when ? = 0.9, no decision boundary can be drawn and all negative samples are misclassified. 6 Experiments In this section, the experimentally compare the performance of the ramp loss and the hinge loss in PU classification (weighting was performed w.r.t. the true class prior and the ramp loss was optimized with [12]). We used the USPS dataset, with the dimensionality reduced to 2 via principal component analysis to enable illustration. 550 samples were used for the positive and mixture datasets. From the results in Table 1, it is clear that the ramp loss gives a much higher classification accuracy than the hinge loss, especially for large class priors. This is due to the fact that the effect of the superfluous penalty term in (10) becomes larger since it scales with ?. When the class prior is large, the classification accuracy for the hinge loss is often close to 1 ? ?. This can be explained by (10): collecting the terms for the positive expectation, we get an effective loss function for the positive samples (illustrated in Figure 4(a)). When ? is large enough, the positive loss is minimized, giving a constant 1. The misclassification rate becomes 1 ? ? since it is a combination of the false negative rate and the false positive rate according to the class prior. Examples of the discrimination boundary for digits ?0? vs. ?7? are given in Figure 4. When the class-prior is low (Figure 4(b) and Figure 4(c)) the misclassification rate of the hinge loss is slightly higher. For large class-priors (Figure 4(d)), the hinge loss causes all samples to be classified as positive (inspection showed that w = 0 and b = 1). 7 Conclusion In this paper we discussed the problem of learning a classifier from positive and unlabeled data. We showed that PU learning can be solved using a cost-sensitive classifier if the class prior of the unlabeled dataset is known. We showed, however, that a non-convex loss must be used in order to prevent a superfluous penalty term in the objective function. In practice, the class prior is unknown and estimated from data. We showed that the excess risk is actually controlled by an effective class prior which depends on both the estimated class prior and the true class prior. Finally, generalization error bounds for the problem were provided. Acknowledgments MCdP is supported by the JST CREST program, GN was supported by the 973 Program No. 2014CB340505 and MS is supported by KAKENHI 23120004. 8 References [1] C. Elkan and K. Noto. Learning classifiers from only positive and unlabeled data. In Proceedings of the 14th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD2008), pages 213?220, 2008. [2] W. Li, Q. Guo, and C. Elkan. A positive and unlabeled learning algorithm for one-class classification of remote-sensing data. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 49(2):717?725, 2011. [3] S. Hido, Y. Tsuboi, H. Kashima, M. Sugiyama, and T. Kanamori. Inlier-based outlier detection via direct density ratio estimation. In F. Giannotti, D. Gunopulos, F. Turini, C. Zaniolo, N. Ramakrishnan, and X. Wu, editors, Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM2008), pages 223? 232, Pisa, Italy, Dec. 15?19 2008. [4] C. Scott and G. Blanchard. Novelty detection: Unlabeled data definitely help. In Proceedings of the Twelfth International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS2009), pages 464?471, Clearwater Beach, Florida USA, Apr. 16-18 2009. [5] C. Elkan. The foundations of cost-sensitive learning. In Proceedings of the Seventeenth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI2001), pages 973?978, 2001. [6] C.C. Chang and C.J. Lin. LIBSVM: A library for support vector machines. ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology, 2:27:1?27:27, 2011. [7] H.L. Van Trees. Detection, Estimation, and Modulation Theory, Part I. Detection, Estimation, and Modulation Theory. John Wiley and Sons, New York, NY, USA, 1968. [8] R. Duda, P. Hart, and D. Stork. Pattern Classification. John Wiley & Sons, 2nd edition, 2001. [9] V. Vapnik. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Springer, 2000. [10] G. Blanchard, G. Lee, and C. Scott. Semi-supervised novelty detection. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 11:2973?3009, 2010. [11] M. C. du Plessis and M. Sugiyama. Class prior estimation from positive and unlabeled data. IEICE Transactions on Information and Systems, E97-D:1358?1362, 2014. [12] R. Collobert, F.H. Sinz, J. Weston, and L. Bottou. Trading convexity for scalability. In Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Machine learning (ICML2006), pages 201?208, 2006. [13] S. Suzumura, K. Ogawa, M. Sugiyama, and I. Takeuchi. Outlier path: A homotopy algorithm for robust SVM. In Proceedings of 31st International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML2014), pages 1098? 1106, Beijing, China, Jun. 21?26 2014. [14] A. Ghosh, N. Manwani, and P. S. Sastry. Making risk minimization tolerant to label noise. CoRR, abs/1403.3610, 2014. [15] M. Mohri, A. Rostamizadeh, and A. Talwalkar. Foundations of Machine Learning. MIT Press, 2012. 9
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VISIT: A Neural Model of Covert Visual Attention Subutai AhmadSiemens Research and Development, ZFE ST SN6, Otto-Hahn Ring 6, 8000 Munich 83, Germany. ahmad~bsUD4Gztivax.siemens.eom Abstract Visual attention is the ability to dynamically restrict processing to a subset of the visual field. Researchers have long argued that such a mechanism is necessary to efficiently perform many intermediate level visual tasks. This paper describes VISIT, a novel neural network model of visual attention. The current system models the search for target objects in scenes containing multiple distractors. This is a natural task for people, it is studied extensively by psychologists, and it requires attention. The network's behavior closely matches the known psychophysical data on visual search and visual attention. VISIT also matches much of the physiological data on attention and provides a novel view of the functionality of a number of visual areas. This paper concentrates on the biological plausibility of the model and its relationship to the primary visual cortex, pulvinar, superior colliculus and posterior parietal areas. 1 INTRODUCTION Visual attention is perhaps best understood in the context of visual search, i.e. the detection of a target object in images containing multiple distractor objects. This task requires solving the binding problem and has been extensively studied in psychology (su[16] for a review). The ba8ic experimental finding is that a target object containing a single distinguishing feature can be detected in constant time, independent of the number of distractors. Detection based on a conjunction of features, however, takes time linear in the number of objects, implying a sequential search process (there are exceptions to this general rule). It is generally accepted "Thanks to Steve Omohundro, Anne Treuman, Joe Malpeli, and Bill Baird for enlight. ening discussions. Much of this resea.rch waa conducted at the International Computer Science Institute, Berkeley, CA. 420 VISIT: A Neural Model of Covert Visual Attention I High Level Recognition I I___~ "t down !%rmaticm Working Memory ~ .r--.....:.-. ... / r-----""7 I .. ealure Maps &nage Figure 1: Overview of VISIT that some form of covert attention 1 is necessary to accomplish this task. The following sections describe VISIT, a connectionist model of this process. The current paper concentrates on the relationships to the physiology of attention, although the psychological studies are briefly touched on. For further details on the psychological aspects see[l, 2]. 2 OVERVIEW OF VISIT We first outline the essential characteristics of VISIT. Figure 1 shows the basic architecture. A set of features are first computed from the image. These features are analogous to the topographic maps computed early in the visual system. There is one unit per location per feature, with each unit computing some local property of the image. Our current implementation uses four feature maps: red, blue, horizontal, and vertical. A parallel global sum of each feature map's activity is computed and is used to detect the presence of activity in individual maps. The feature information is fed through two different systems: a gating network and a priority network. The gating network implements the focus - its function is to restrict higher level processing to a single circular region. Each gate unit receives the coordinates of a circle as input. If it is outside the circle, it turns on and inhibits corresponding locations in the gated feature maps. Thus the network can filter image properties based on an external control signal. The required computation is a simple second order weighted sum and takes two time steps[l]. 1 Covert attention refers to the ability to concentrate processing on a single image region without any overt actions such as eye movements. 421 422 Ahmad The priority network ranks image locations in parallel and encodes the information in a manner suited to the updating of the focus of attention. There are three units per location in the priority map. The activity of the first unit represents the location's relevance to the current task. It receives activation from the feature maps in a local neighborhood of the image. The value of the i'th such unit is calculated as: Ai = G( L L PfAfzy ) (1) z,yERF. fEF where A fzy is the activation of the unit computing feature I at location (z,y). RFi denotes the receptive field of unit i, Pf is the priority given to feature map I, and G is a monotonically increasing function such as the sigmoid. Pf is represented as the real valued activation of individual units and can be dynamically adjusted according to the task. Thus by setting Pf for a particular feature to 1 and all others to 0, only objects containing that feature will influence the priority map. Section 2.1 describes a good strategy for setting Pf . The other two units at each location encode an "error vector" , i.e. the vector difference between the units' location and center of the focus. These vectors are continually updated as the focus of attention moves around. To shift the focus to the most relevant location, the network simply adds the error vector corresponding to the highest priority unit to the activations of the units representing the focii's center. Once a location has been visited, the corresponding relevance unit is inhibited, preventing the network from continually attending to the highest priority location. The control networks are responsible for mediating the information flow between the gating and priority networks, as well as incorporating top-down knowledge. The following section describes the part which sets the priority values for the feature maps. The rest of the networks are described in detail in [1J. Note that the control functions are fully implemented as networks of simple units and thus requires no "homunculus" to oversee the process. 2.1 SWIFT: A FAST SEARCH STRATEGY The main function of SWIFT is to integrate top-down and bottom-up knowledge to efficiently guide the search process. Top down information about the target features are stored in a set of units. Let T be this set of features. Since the desired object must contain all the features of T, any of the corresponding feature maps may be searched. Using the ability to weight feature maps differently, the network removes the influence of all but one of the features in T. By setting this map's priority to 1, and all others to 0, the system will effectively prune objects which do not contain this feature.SWIF~ To minimize search time, it should choose the feature corresponding to the smallest number of objects. Since it is difficult to count the number of objects in parallel, the network chooses the map with the minimal total activity as the one likely to contain the minimal number of objects. (If the target features are not known in advance, SWIFT chooses the minimal feature map over all features . The net effect is to always pick the most distinctive feature.) 2Hence the name SWIFT: Search WIth Features Thrown out. VISIT: A Neural Model of Covert Visual Attention 2.2 RELATIONSHIP TO PSYCHOPHYSICAL DATA The run time behavior of the system closely matches the data on human visual search. Visual attention in people is known to be very quick, taking as little as 40-80 msecs to engage. Given that cortical neurons can fire about once every 10 msecs, this leaves time for at most 8 sequential steps. In VISIT, unlike other implementations of attention[10], the calculation of the next location is separated from the gating process. This allows the gating to be extremely fast, requiring only 2 time steps. Iterative models, which select the most active object through lateral inhibition, require time proportional to the distance in pixels between maximally separated objects. These models are not consistent with the 80msecs time requirement. During visual search, SWIFT always searches the minimal feature map. The critical variable that determines search time is M, the number of objects in the minimal feature map. Search time will be linear in M. It can be shown that VISIT plus SWIFT is consistent with all of Treisman's original experiments including single feature search, conjunctive search, 2:1 slope ratios, search asymmetries, and illusory conjuncts[16], as well as the exceptions reported in[5, 14]. With an assumption abou t the features that are coded (consistent with current physiological know ledge), the results in[7, 11] can also be modeled. (This is described in more detail in [2]). 3 PHYSIOLOGY OF VISUAL ATTENTION The above sections have described the general architecture of VISIT. There is a fairly strong correspondence between the modules in VISIT and the various visual areas involved in attention. The rest of the paper discusses these relationships. 3.1 TOPOGRAPHIC FEATURE MAPS Each of the early visual areas, LGN, VI, and V2, form several topographic maps of retinal activity. In VI alone there are a thousand times as many neurons as there are fibers in the optic nerve, enough to form several hundred feature maps. There is a diverse list of features thought to be computed in these areas, including orientations, colors, spatial frequencies, motion, etc.[6]. These areas are analogous to the set of early feature maps computed in VISIT. In VISIT there are actually two separate sets of feature maps: early features computed directly from the image and gated feature maps. It might seem inefficient to have two copies of the same features. An alternate possibility is to directly inhibit the early feature maps themselves, and so eliminate the need for two sets. However, in a focused state, such a network would be unable to make global decisions based on the features. With the configuration described above, at some hardware cost, the network can efficiently access both local and global information simultaneously. SWIFT relies on this ability to efficiently carry out visual search. There is evidence for a similar setup in the human visual system. Although people have actively searched, no local attentional effects have been found in the early feature maps. (Only global effects, such as an overall increase in firing rate, have been noticed.) The above reasoning provides a possible computational explanation of this phenomenon. 423 424 Ahmad A natural question to ask is: what is the best set of features? For fast visual search, if SWIFT is used as a constraint, then we want the set of features that minimize M over all possible images and target objects, i.e. the features that best discriminate objects. It is easy to see that the optimal set of features should be maximally uncorrelated with a near uniform distribution of feature values. Extracting the principal components of the distribution of images gives us exactly those features. It is well known that a single Hebb neuron extracts the largest principal componentj sets of such neurons can be connected to select successively smaller components. Moreover, as some researchers have demonstrated, simple Hebbian learning can lead to features that look very similar to the features in visual cortex (see [3] for a review). If the early features in visual cortex do in fact represent principal components, then SWIFT is a simple strategy that takes advantage of it. 3.2 THE PULVINAR Contrary to the early visual system, local attentional effects have been discovered in the pulvinar. Recordings of cells in the lateral pulvinar of awake, behaving monkeys have demonstrated a spatially localized enhancement effect tied to selective attention[17]. Given this property it is tempting to pinpoint the pulvinar as the locus of the gated feature maps. The general connectivity patterns provide some support for this hypothesis. The pulvinar is located in the dorsal part of the thalamus and is strongly connected to just about every visual area including LGN, VI, V2, superior colliculus, the frontal eye fields, and posterior parietal cortex. The projections are topography preserving and non-overlapping. As a result, the pulvinar contains several high-resolution maps of visual space, possibly one map for each one in primary visual cortex. In addition, there is a thin sheet of neurons around the pulvinar, the reticular complex, with exclusively inhibitory connections to the neurons within [4]. This is exactly the structure necessary to implement VISITs gating system. There are other clues which also point to the thalamus as the gating system. Human patients with thalamic lesions have difficulty engaging attention and inhibiting crosstalk from other locations. Lesioned monkeys give slower responses when competing events are present in the visual field[12]. The hypothesis can be tested by further experiments. In particular, if a map in the pulvinar corresponding to a particular cortical area is damaged, then there should be a corresponding deficit in the ability to bind those specific features in the presence of distractors. In the absence of distractors, the performance should remain unchanged. 3.3 SUPERIOR COLLICULUS The SC is involved in both the generation of eye saccades[15] and possibly with covert attention[12]. It is probably also involved in the integration oflocation information from various different modalities. Like the pulvinar, the superior colliculus (SC) is a structure with converging inputs from several different modalities including visual, auditory, and somatosensory[15]. The superior colliculus contains a representation similar to VISITs error maps for eye saccades[15]. At each location, VISIT: A Neural Model of Covert Visual Attention groups of neurons represent the vector in motor coordinates required to shift the eye to that spot. In [13] the authors studied patients with a particular form of Parkinson's disease where the SC is damaged. These patients are able to make horizontal, but not vertical eye saccades. The experiments showed that although the patients were still able to move their covert attention in both the horizontal and vertical directions, the speed of orienting in the vertical direction was much slower. In addition [12] mentions that patients with this damage shift attention to previously attended locations as readily as new ones, suggesting a deficit in the mechanism that inhibits previously attended locations. These findings are consistent with the priority map in VISIT. A first guess would identify the superior colliculus as the priority map, however this is probably inaccurate. More recent evidence suggests that the SC might be involved only in bottom-up shifts of attention (induced by exogenous stimuli as opposed to endogenous control signals) (Rafal, personal communication). There is also evidence that the frontal eye fields (F EF) are involved in saccade generation in a manner similar to the superior colliculus, particularly for saccades to complex stimuli[17]. The role of the FE F in covert attention is currently unknown. 3.4 POSTERIOR PARIETAL AREAS The posterior paretal cortex P P may provide an answer. One hypothesis that is consistent with the data is that there are several different priority maps, for bottom-up and top-down stimuli. The top-down maps exist within P P, whereas the bottom-up maps exist in SC and possibly F EF. P P receives a significant projection from superior colliculus and may be involved in the production of voluntary eye saccades[17]. Experiments suggest that it is also involved in covert shifts of attention. There is evidence that neurons in P P increase their firing rate when in a state of attentive fixation[9]. Damage to P P leads to deficits in the ability to disengage covert attention away from a target[12]. In the context of eye saccades, there exist neurons in P P that fire about 55 msecs before an actual saccade. These results suggest that the control structure and the aspects of the network that integrate priority information from the various modules might also reside within PP. 4 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS The above relationships between VISIT and the brain provides a coherent picture of the functionality of the visual areas. The literature is consistent with having the LGN, V1, and V2 as the early feature maps, the pulvinar as a gating system, the superior colliculus, and frontal eye fields, as a bottom-up priority map, and posterior parietal cortex as the locus of a higher level priority map as well as the the control networks. Figure 2 displays the various visual areas together with their proposed functional relationships. In [12] the authors suggest that neurons in parietal lobe disengage attention from the present focus, those in superior colliculus shift attention to the target, and neurons in pulvinar engage attention on it. This hypothesis looks at the time course of an attentional shift (disengage, move, engage) and assigns three different areas to 425 426 Ahmad Figure 2: Proposed functionality of various visual areas. Lines denote major pathways. Those connections without arrows are known to be bi-directional. the three different intervals within that temporal sequence. In VISIT, these three correspond to a single operation (add a new update vector to the current location) and a single module (the control network). Instead, the emphasis is on assigning different computational responsibilities to the various modules. Each module operates continuously but is involved in a different computation. While the gating network is being updated to a new location, the priority network and portions of the control network are continuously updating the priorities. The model doesn't yet explain the findings in [8] where neurons in V4 exhibited a localized attentional response, but only if the stimuli were within the receptive fields. However, these neurons have relatively large receptive fields and are known to code for fairly high-level features. It is possible that this corresponds to a different form of attention working at a much higher level. By no means is VISIT intended to be a detailed physiological model of attention. Precise modeling of even a single neuron can require significant computational resources. There are many physiological details that are not incorporated. However, at the macro level there are interesting relationships between the individual modules in VISIT and the known functionality of the different areas. The advantage of an implemented computational model such as VISIT is that it allows us to examine the underlying computations involved and hopefully better understand the underlying processes. VISIT: A Neural Model of Covert Visual Attention References [1] S. Ahmad. VISIT: An Efficient Computational Model of Human Visual Attention. PhD thesis, University of illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL, September 1991. Also TR-91-049, International Computer Science Institute, Berkeley, CA. [2] S. Ahmad and S. Omohundro. Efficient visual search: A connectionist solution. In 13th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, Chicago, IL, August 1991. [3] S. Becker. Unsupervised learning procedures for neural networks. International Journal of Neural Sy~tem~, 12, 1991. [4] F. Crick. Function of the thalamic reticular complex: the searchlight hypothesis. In National Academy of Science~, volume 81, pages 4586-4590, 1984. [5] H.E. Egeth, R.A. Virzi, and H. Garbart. Searching for conjunctively defined targets. Journal of Experimental P~ychology: Human Perception and Performance, 10(1):3239, 1984. [6] D. Van Essen and C. H. Anderson. Information processing strategies and pathways in the primate retina and visual cortex. In S.F. Zornetzer, J .L. Davis, and C. Lau, editors, An Introduction to Neural and Electronic Network!. Academic Press, 1990. [7] P. McLeod, J. Driver, and J. Crisp. Visual search for a conjunction of movement and form is parallel. Nature, 332:154-155, 1988. [8] J. Moran and R. Desimone. Selective attention gates visual processing in the extrastriate cortex. Science, 229, March 1985. [9] V.B. Mountcastle, R.A. Anderson, and B.C. Motter. The influence of attention fixation upon the excitability ofthe light-sensitive neurons ofthe posterior parietal cortex. The Journal of Neuro~cience, 1(11):1218-1235, 1981. [10] M. Mozer. The Perception of Multiple Objects: A Press, Cambridge, MA, 1991. Connectioni~t Approach. MIT [11] K. Nakayama and G. Silverman. Serial and parallel processing of visual feature conjunctions. Nature, 320:264-265, 1986. [12] M.l. Posner and S.E. Petersen. The attention system of the human brain. Annual Review of Neuro~cience, 13:25-42, 1990. [13] M.l. Posner, J.A. Walker, and R.D. Rafal. Effects of parietal injury on covert orienting of attention. The Journal of Neuro~cience, 4(7):1863-1874, 1982. [14] P.T. Quinlan and G.W. Humphreys. Visual search for targets defined by combinations of color, shape, and size: An examination of the task constraints of feature and conjunction searches. Perception & P~ychophy~ic~, 41:455-472, 1987. [15] D. L. Sparks. Translation of sensory signals into commands for control of saccadic eye movements: Role of primate superior colliculus. Physiological Review~, 66(1), 1986. [16] A. Treisman. Features and objects: The Fourteenth Bartlett Memorial Lecture. The Quarterly Journal of Experimental P~ychology, 40A(2), 1988. [17] R.H. Wurtz and M.E. Goldberg, editors. The Neurobiology of Saccadic Eye Movemenb. Elsevier, New York, 1989. 427
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Feature Cross-Substitution in Adversarial Classification Bo Li and Yevgeniy Vorobeychik Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Vanderbilt University {bo.li.2,yevgeniy.vorobeychik}@vanderbilt.edu Abstract The success of machine learning, particularly in supervised settings, has led to numerous attempts to apply it in adversarial settings such as spam and malware detection. The core challenge in this class of applications is that adversaries are not static data generators, but make a deliberate effort to evade the classifiers deployed to detect them. We investigate both the problem of modeling the objectives of such adversaries, as well as the algorithmic problem of accounting for rational, objective-driven adversaries. In particular, we demonstrate severe shortcomings of feature reduction in adversarial settings using several natural adversarial objective functions, an observation that is particularly pronounced when the adversary is able to substitute across similar features (for example, replace words with synonyms or replace letters in words). We offer a simple heuristic method for making learning more robust to feature cross-substitution attacks. We then present a more general approach based on mixed-integer linear programming with constraint generation, which implicitly trades off overfitting and feature selection in an adversarial setting using a sparse regularizer along with an evasion model. Our approach is the first method for combining an adversarial classification algorithm with a very general class of models of adversarial classifier evasion. We show that our algorithmic approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art alternatives. 1 Introduction The success of machine learning has led to its widespread use as a workhorse in a wide variety of domains, from text and language recognition to trading agent design. It has also made significant inroads into security applications, such as fraud detection, computer intrusion detection, and web search [1, 2]. The use of machine (classification) learning in security settings has especially piqued the interest of the research community in recent years because traditional learning algorithms are highly susceptible to a number of attacks [3, 4, 5, 6, 7]. The class of attacks that is of interest to us are evasion attacks, in which an intelligent adversary attempts to adjust their behavior so as to evade a classifier that is expressly designed to detect it [3, 8, 9]. Machine learning has been an especially important tool for filtering spam and phishing email, which we treat henceforth as our canonical motivating domain. To date, there has been extensive research investigating spam and phish detection strategies using machine learning, most without considering adversarial modification [10, 11, 12]. Failing to consider an adversary, however, exposes spam and phishing detection systems to evasion attacks. Typically, the predicament of adversarial evasion is dealt with by repeatedly re-learning the classifier. This is a weak solution, however, since evasion tends to be rather quick, and re-learning is a costly task, since it requires one to label a large number of instances (in crowdsourced labeling, one also exposes the system to deliberate corruption of the training data). Therefore, several efforts have focused on proactive approaches of modeling the 1 learner and adversary as players in a game in which the learner chooses a classifier or a learning algorithm, and the attacker modifies either the training or test data [13, 14, 15, 16, 8, 17, 18]. Spam and phish detection, like many classification domains, tends to suffer from the curse of dimensionality [11]. Feature reduction is therefore standard practice, either explicitly, by pruning features which lack sufficient discriminating power, implicitly, by using regularization, or both [19]. One of our key novel insights is that in adversarial tasks, feature selection can open the door for the adversary to evade the classification system. This metaphorical door is open particularly widely in cases where feature cross-substitution is viable. By feature cross-substitution, we mean that the adversary can accomplish essentially the same end by using one feature in place of another. Consider, for example, a typical spam detection system using a ?bag-of-words? feature vector. Words which in training data are highly indicative of spam can easily be substituted for by an adversary using synonyms or through substituting characters within a word (such replacing an ?o? with a ?0?). We support our insight through extensive experiments, exhibiting potential perils of traditional means for feature selection. While our illustration of feature cross-substitution focuses on spam, we note that the phenomenon is quite general. As another example, many Unix system commands have substitutes. For example, you can scan text using ?less?, ?more?, ?cat?, and you can copy file1 to file2 by ?cp file1 file2? or ?cat file1 > file2?. Thus, if one learns to detect malicious scripts without accounting for such equivalences, the resulting classifier will be easy to evade. Our first proposed solution to the problem of feature reduction in adversarial classification is equivalence-based learning, or constructing features based on feature equivalence classes, rather than the underlying feature space. We show that this heuristic approach does, indeed, significantly improve resilience of classifiers to adversarial evasion. Our second proposed solution is more principled, and takes the form of a general bi-level mixed integer linear program to solve a Stackelberg game model of interactions between a learner and a collection of adversaries whose objectives are inferred from training data. The baseline formulation is quite intractable, and we offer two techniques for making it tractable: first, we cluster adversarial objectives, and second, we use constraint generation to iteratively converge upon a locally optimal solution. The principal merits of our proposed bi-level optimization approach over the state of the art are: a) it is able to capture a very general class of adversary models, including the model proposed by Lowd and Meek [8], as well as our own which enables feature cross-substitution; in contrast, state-of-the-art approaches are specifically tailored to their highly restrictive threat models; and b) it makes an implicit tradeoff between feature selection through the use of sparse (l1 ) regularization and adversarial evasion (through the adversary model), thereby solving the problem of adversarial feature selection. In summary, our contributions are: 1. A new adversarial evasion model that explicitly accounts for the ability to cross-substitute features (Section 3), 2. an experimental demonstration of the perils of traditional feature selection (Section 4), 3. a heuristic class-based learning approach (Section 5), and 4. a bi-level optimization framework and solution methods that make a principled tradeoff between feature selection and adversarial evasion (Section 6). 2 Problem definition The Learner Let X ? Rn be the feature space, with n the number of features. For a feature vector x ? X, we let xi denote the ith feature. Suppose that the training set (x, y) is comprised of feature vectors x ? X generated according to some unknown distribution x ? D, with y ? {?1, +1} the corresponding binary labels, where the meaning of ?1 is that the instance x is benign, while +1 indicates a malicious instance. The learner?s task is to learn a classifier g : X ? {?1, +1} to label instances as malicious or benign, using a training data set of labeled instances {(x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xm , ym )}. 2 The Adversary We suppose that every instance x ? D corresponds to a fixed label y ? {?1, +1}, where a label of +1 indicates that this instance x was generated by an adversary. In the context of a threat model, therefore, we take this malicious x to be an expression of revealed preferences of the adversary: that is, x is an ?ideal? instance that the adversary would generate if it were not marked as malicious (e.g., filtered) by the classifier. The core question is then what alternative instance, x0 ? X, will be generated by the adversary. Clearly, x0 would need to evade the classifier g, i.e., g(x0 ) = ?1. However, this cannot be a sufficient condition: after all, the adversary is trying to accomplish some goal. This is where the ideal instance, which we denote xA comes in: we suppose that the ideal instance achieves the goal and consequently the adversary strives to limit deviations from it according to a cost function c(x0 , xA ). Therefore, the adversary aims to solve the following optimization problem: min x0 ?X:g(x0 )=?1 c(x0 , xA ). (1) There is, however, an additional caveat: the adversary typically only has query access to g(x), and queries are costly (they correspond to actual batches of emails being sent out, for example). Thus, we assume that the adversary has a fixed query budget, Bq . Additionally, we assume that the adversary also has a cost budget, Bc so that if the solution to the optimization problem (1) found after making Bq queries falls above the cost budget, the adversary will use the ideal instance xA as x0 , since deviations fail to satisfy the adversary?s main goals. The Game The game between the learner and the adversary proceeds as follows: 1. The learner uses training data to choose a classifier g(x). 2. Each adversary corresponding to malicious feature vectors x uses a query-based algorithm to (approximately) solve the optimization problem (1) subject to the query and cost budget constraints. 3. The learner?s ?test? error is measured using a new data set in which every malicious x ? X is replaced with a corresponding x0 computed by the adversary in step 2. 3 Modeling Feature Cross-Substitution Distance-Based Cost Functions In one of the first adversarial classification models, Lowd and Meek [8] proposed a natural l1 distance-based cost function which penalizes for deviations from the ideal feature vector xA : X c(x0 , xA ) = ai |x0i ? xA (2) i |, i where ai is a relative importance of feature i to the adversary. All follow-up work in the adversarial classification domain has used either this cost function or variations [3, 4, 7, 20]. Feature Cross-Substitution Attacks While distance-based cost functions seem natural models of adversarial objective, they miss an important phenomenon of feature cross-substitution. In spam or phishing, this phenomenon is most obvious when an adversary substitutes words for their synonyms or substitutes similar-looking letters in words. As an example, consider Figure 1 (left), where some features can naturally be substituted for others without significantly changing the original content. These words can contain features with the similar meaning or effect (e.g. money and cash) or differ in only a few letters (e.g clearance and claerance). The impact is that the adversary can achieve a much lower cost of transforming an ideal instance xA using similarity-based feature substitutions than simple distance would admit. To model feature cross-substitution attacks, we introduce for each feature i an equivalence class of features, Fi , which includes all admissible substitutions (e.g., k-letter word modifications or 3 Figure 1: Left: illustration of feature substitution attacks. Right: comparison between distancebased and equivalence-based cost functions. synonyms), and generalize (2) to account for such cross-feature equivalence: X ai |x0j ? xA c(x0 , xA ) = min i |, i 0 j?Fi |xA j ?xj =1 (3) 0 where ? is the exclusive-or, so that xA j ? xj = 1 ensures that we only substitute between different features rather than simply adding features. Figure 1 (right) shows the cost comparison between the Lowd and Meek and equivalence-based cost functions under letter substitution attacks based on Enron email data [21], with the attacker simulated by running a variation of the Lowd and Meek algorithm (see the Supplement for details), given a specified number of features (see Section 4 for the details about how we choose the features). The key observation is that the equivalence-based cost function significantly reduces attack costs compared to the distance-based cost function, with the difference increasing in the size of the equivalence class. The practical import of this observation is that the adversary will far more frequently come under cost budget when he is able to use such substitution attacks. Failure to capture this phenomenon therefore results in a threat model that significantly underestimates the adversary?s ability to evade a classifier. 4 The Perils of Feature Reduction in Adversarial Classification Feature reduction is one of the fundamental tasks in machine learning aimed at controlling overfitting. The insight behind feature reduction in traditional machine learning is that there are two sources of classification error: bias, or the inherent limitation in expressiveness of the hypothesis class, and variance, or inability of a classifier to make accurate generalizations because of overfitting the training data. We now observe that in adversarial classification, there is a crucial third source of generalization error, introduced by adversarial evasion. Our main contribution in this section is to document the tradeoff between feature reduction and the ability of the adversary to evade the classifier and thereby introduce this third kind of generalization error. In addition, we show the important role that feature cross-substitution can play in this phenomenon. To quantify the perils of feature reduction in adversarial classification, we first train each classifier using a different number of features n. In order to draw a uniform comparison across learning algorithms and cost functions, we used an algorithm-independent means to select a subset of features given a fixed feature budget n. Specifically, we select the set of features in each case based on a score function score(i) = |F R?1 (i) ? F R+1 (i)|, where F RC (i) represents the frequency that a feature i appears in instances x in class C ? {?1, +1}. We then sort all the features i according to score and select a subset of n highest ranked features. Finally, we simulate an adversary as running an algorithm which is a generalization of the one proposed by Lowd and Meek [8] to support our proposed equivalence-based cost function (see the Supplement, Section 2, for details). Our evaluation uses three data sets: Enron email data [21], Ling-spam data [22], and internet advertisement dataset from the UCI repository [23]. The Enron data set was divided into training set of 3172 and a test set of 2000 emails in each of 5 folds of cross-validation, with an equal number of spam and non-spam instances [21]. A total of 3000 features were chosen for the complete feature pool, and we sub-selected between 5 and 1000 of these features for our experiments. The Ling-spam data set was divided into 1158 instances for training and 289 for test in cross-validation with five 4 times as much non-spam as spam, and contains 1000 features from which between 5 and 500 were sub-selected for the experiments. Finally, the UCI data set was divided into 476 training and 119 test instances in five-fold cross validation, with four times as many advertisement as non-advertisement instances. This data set contains 200 features, of which between 5 and 200 were chosen. For each data set, we compared the effect of adversarial evasion on the performance of four classification algorithms: Naive Bayes, SVM with linear and rbf kernels, and neural network classifiers. (a) (b) (c) (d) Figure 2: Effect of adversarial evasion on feature reduction strategies. (a)-(d) deterministic Naive Bayes classifier, SVM with linear kernel, SVM with rbf kernel, and Neural network, respectively. Top sets of figures correspond to distance-based and bottom figures are equivalence-based cost functions, where equivalence classes are formed using max-2-letter substitutions. The results of Enron data are documented in Figure 2; the others are shown in the Supplement. Consider the lowest (purple) lines in all plots, which show cross-validation error as a function of the number of features used, as the baseline comparison. Typically, there is an ?optimal? number of features (the small circle), i.e., the point at which the cross-validation error rate first reaches a minimum, and traditional machine learning methods will strive to select the number of features near this point. The first key observation is that whether the adversary uses the distance- or equivalencebased cost functions, there tends to be a shift of this ?optimal? point to the right (the large circle): the learner should be using more features when facing a threat of adversarial evasion, despite the potential risk of overfitting. The second observation is that when a significant amount of malicious traffic is present, evasion can account for a dominant portion of the test error, shifting the error up significantly. Third, feature cross-substitution attacks can make this error shift more dramatic, particularly as we increase the size of the equivalence class (as documented in the Supplement). 5 Equivalence-Based Classification Having documented the problems associated with feature reduction in adversarial classification, we now offer a simple heuristic solution: equivalence-based classification (EBC). The idea behind EBC is that instead of using underlying features for learning and classification, we use equivalence classes in their place. Specifically, we partition features into equivalence classes. Then, for each equivalence class, we create a corresponding meta-feature to be used in learning. For example, if the underlying features are binary and indicating a presence of a particular word in an email, the equivalence-class meta-feature would be an indicator that some member of the class is present in the email. As another example, when features represent frequencies of word occurrences, meta-features could represent aggregate frequencies of features in the corresponding equivalence class. 6 Stackelberg Game Multi-Adversary Model The proposed equivalence-based classification method is a highly heuristic solution to the issue of adversarial feature reduction. We now offer a more principled and general approach to adversarial 5 classification based on the game model described in Section 2. Formally, we aim to compute a Stackelberg equilibrium of the game in which the learner moves first by choosing a linear classifier g(x) = wT x and all the attackers simultaneously and independently respond to g by choosing x0 according to a query-based algorithm optimizing the cost function c(x0 , xA ) subject to query and cost budget constraints. Consequently, we term this approach Stackelberg game multi-adversary model (SMA). The optimization problem for the learner then takes the following form: X X min ? l(?wT xj ) + (1 ? ?) l(wT F (xj ; w)) + ?||w||1 , (4) w j|yj =?1 j|yj =1 where l(?) is the hinge loss function and ? ? [0, 1] trades off between the importance of false positives and false negatives. Note the addition of l1 regularizer to make an explicit tradeoff between overfitting and resilience to adversarial evasion. Here, F (xj ; w) generically captures the adversarial decision model. In our setting, the adversary uses a query-based algorithm (which is an extension of the algorithm proposed by Lowd and Meek [8]) to approximately minimize cost c(x0 , xj ) over x0 : wT x0 ? 0, subject to budget constraints on cost and the number of queries. In order to solve the optimization problem (4) we now describe how to formulate it as a (very large) mixed-integer linear program (MILP), and then propose several heuristic methods for making it tractable. Since adversaries here correspond to feature vectors xj which are malicious (and which we interpret as the ?ideal? instances xA of these adversaries), we henceforth refer to a given adversary by the index j. The first step is to observe that the hinge loss function and kwk1 can both be easily linearized using standard methods. We therefore focus on the more challenging task of expressing the adversarial decision in response to a classification choice w as a collection of linear constraints. ? be the set of all feature vectors that an adversary can compute using a fixed query To begin, let X budget (this is just a conceptual tool; we will not need to know this set in practice, as shown below). The adversary?s optimization problem can then be described as computing zj = arg min ? T x0 ?0 x0 ?X|w c(x0 , xj ) when the minimum is below the cost budget, and setting zj = xj otherwise. Now define an auxiliary matrix T in which each column corresponds to a particular attack feature vector x0 , which we index using variables a; thus Tia corresponds to the value of feature i in attack feature vector with index a. Define another auxiliary binary matrix L where Laj = 1 iff the strategy a satisfies the budget constraint for the attacker j. Next, define a matrix c where caj is the cost of the strategy a to adversary j (computed using an arbitrary cost function; we can use either the distance- or equivalence-based cost functions, for example). Finally, let zaj be a binary variable that selects exactly one feature vector a for the adversary j. First, we must have a constraint that zaj = 1 for exactly one strategy a: P a zaj = 1 ? j. Now, suppose that the strategy a that is selected is the best available option for the attacker j; it may be below the cost budget, in which case this is the strategy used by the adversary, or above budget, in which case xj is used. We can calculate the resulting value of wT F (xj ; w) P using ej = a zaj wT (Laj Ta + (1 ? Laj )xj ). This expression introduces bilinear terms zaj wT , but since zaj are binary these terms can be linearized using McCormick inequalities [24]. To ensure that zja selects the strategy which minimizes cost among all feasible options, we introduce constraints P 0 0 0 a zaj caj ? ca j + M (1 ? ra ), where M is a large constant and ra is an indicator variable which T 0 0 is 1 iff w Ta ? 0 (that is, if a is classified as benign); the corresponding term ensures that the constraint is non-trivial only for a0 which are classified benign. Finally, we calculate ra for all a using constraints (1 ? 2ra )wT Ta ? 0. While this constraint again introduces bilinear terms, these can be linearized as well since ra are binary. The full MILP formulation is shown in Figure 3 (left). As is, the resulting MILP is intractable for two reasons: first, the best response must be computed (using a set of constraints above) for each adversary j, of which there could be many, and second, ? (which we index we need a set of constraints for each feasible attack action (feature vector) x ? X by a). We tackle the first problem by clustering the ?ideal? attack vectors xj into a set of 100 clusters and using the mean of each cluster as xA for the representative attacker. This dramatically reduces the number of adversaries and, therefore, the size of the problem. To tackle the second problem we use constraint generation to iteratively add strategies a into the above program by executing the Lowd and Meek algorithm in each iteration in response to the classifier w computed in previous iteration. In combination, these techniques allow us to scale the proposed optimization method to realistic problem instances. The full SMA algorithm is shown in Figure 3 (right). 6 min ? X Di + (1 ? ?) X Si + ? X Kj Algorithm 1 SMA(X) T =randStrats() // initial set of attacks s.t. : ?a, i, j : zi (a), r(a) ? {0, 1} X X 0 ? cluster(X) zi (a) = 1 w0 ? MILP(X 0 , T ) a X w ? w0 ?i : ei = mi (a)(Lai Ta + (1 ? Lai )xi ) a while T changes do 0 ?a, i, j : ?M zi (a) ? mij (a) ? M zi (a) for xA ? Xspam do ?a, i, j : wj ? M (1 ? zi (a)) ? mij (a) ? wj + M (1 ? zi (a)) t =computeAttack(xA , w) X X ?a : wj Taj ? 2 Taj yaj T ?T ?t j j end for ?a, j : ?M ra ? yaj ? M ra w ? MILP(X 0 , T ) ?a, j : wj ? M (1 ? ra ) ? yaj ? wj + M (1 ? ra ) end while T ?i : Di = max(0, 1 ? w xi ) return w w,z,r i|yi =0 i|yi =1 j ?i : Si = max(0, 1 + ei ) ?j : Kj = max(wj , ?wj ) Figure 3: Left: MILP to compute solution to (4). Right: SMA iterative algorithm using clustering and constraint generation. The matrices L and C in the MILP can be pre-computed using the matrix of strategies and corresponding indices T in each iteration, as well as the cost budget Bc . computeAttack() is the attacker?s best response (see the Supplement for details). 7 Experiments In this section we investigate the effectiveness of the two proposed methods: the equivalence-based classification heuristic (EBC) and the Stackelberg game multi-adversary model (SMA) solved using mixed-integer linear programming. As in Section 4, we consider three data sets: the Enron data, Ling-spam data, and UCI data. We draw a comparison to three baselines: 1) ?traditional? machine learning algorithms (we report the results for SVM; comparisons to Naive Bayes and Neural Network classifiers are provided in the Supplement, Section 3), 2) Stackelberg prediction game (SPG) algorithm with linear loss [17], and 3) SPG with logistic loss [17]. Both (2) and (3) are state-of-theart alternative methods developed specifically for adversarial classification problems. Our first set of results (Figure 4) is a performance comparison of our proposed methods to the three baselines, evaluated using an adversary striving to evade the classifier, subject to query and cost budget constraints. For the Enron data, we can see, remarkably, that the equivalence-based classifier (a) (b) (c) Figure 4: Comparison of EBC and SMA approaches to baseline alternatives on Enron data (a), Ling-spam data (b), and UCI data(c). Top: Bc = 5, Bq = 5. Bottom: Bc = 20, Bq = 10. 7 often significantly outperforms both SPG with linear and logistic loss. On the other hand, the performance of EBC is relatively poor on Ling-spam data, although observe that even the traditional SVM classifier has a reasonably low error rate in this case. While the performance of EBC is clearly datadependent, SMA (purple lines in Figure 4) exhibits dramatic performance improvement compared to alternatives in all instances (see the Supplement, Section 3, for extensive additional experiments, including comparisons to other classifiers, and varying adversary?s budget constraints). Figure 5 (left) looks deeper at the nature of SMA solution vectors w. Specifically, we consider how the adversary?s strength, as measured by the query budget, affects the sparsity of solutions as measured by kwk0 . We can see a clear trend: as the adversary?s budget increases, solutions become less sparse (only the result for Ling data is shown, but the same trend is observed for other data sets; see the Supplement, Section 3, for details). This is to be expected in the context of our investigation of the impact that adversarial evasion has on feature reduction (Section 4): SMA automatically accounts for the tradeoff between resilience to adversarial evasion and regularization. Finally, Figure 5 (middle, right) considers the impact of the number of clusters used in solving the Figure 5: Left: kwk0 of the SMA solution for Ling data. Middle: SMA error rates, and Right: SMA running time, as a function of the number of clusters used. SMA problem on running time and error. The key observation is that with relatively few (80-100) clusters we can achieve near-optimal performance, with significant savings in running time. 8 Conclusions We investigated two phenomena in the context of adversarial classification settings: classifier evasion and feature reduction, exhibiting strong tension between these. The tension is surprising: feature/dimensionality reduction is a hallmark of practical machine learning, and, indeed, is generally viewed as increasing classifier robustness. Our insight, however, is that feature selection will typically provide more room for the intelligent adversary to choose features not used in classification, but providing a near-equivalent alternative to their ?ideal? attacks which would otherwise be detected. Terming this idea feature cross-substitution (i.e., the ability of the adversary to effectively use different features to achieve the same goal), we offer extensive experimental evidence that aggressive feature reduction does, indeed, weaken classification efficacy in adversarial settings. We offer two solutions to this problem. The first is highly heuristic, using meta-features constructed using feature equivalence classes for classification. The second is a principled and general Stackelberg game multi-adversary model (SMA), solved using mixed-integer linear programming. We use experiments to demonstrate that the first solution often outperforms state-of-the-art adversarial classification methods, while SMA is significantly better than all alternatives in all evaluated cases. We also show that SMA in fact implicitly makes a tradeoff between feature reduction and adversarial evasion, with more features used in the context of stronger adversaries. Acknowledgments This research was partially supported by Sandia National Laboratories. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy?s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. 8 References [1] Tom Fawcett and Foster Provost. Adaptive fraud detection. Data mining and knowledge discovery, 1(3):291?316, 1997. [2] Matthew V Mahoney and Philip K Chan. Learning nonstationary models of normal network traffic for detecting novel attacks. In Proceedings of the eighth ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining, pages 376?385. ACM, 2002. [3] Marco Barreno, Blaine Nelson, Anthony D Joseph, and JD Tygar. The security of machine learning. Machine Learning, 81(2):121?148, 2010. [4] Marco Barreno, Peter L Bartlett, Fuching Jack Chi, Anthony D Joseph, Blaine Nelson, Benjamin IP Rubinstein, Udam Saini, and J Doug Tygar. Open problems in the security of learning. In Proceedings of the 1st ACM workshop on Workshop on AISec, pages 19?26. ACM, 2008. [5] Battista Biggio, Giorgio Fumera, and Fabio Roli. Security evaluation of pattern classifiers under attack. IEEE Transactions on Data and Knowledge Engineering, 26(4):984?996, 2013. [6] Pavel Laskov and Richard Lippmann. Machine learning in adversarial environments. Machine learning, 81(2):115?119, 2010. [7] Blaine Nelson, Benjamin IP Rubinstein, Ling Huang, Anthony D Joseph, and JD Tygar. Classifier evasion: Models and open problems. In Privacy and Security Issues in Data Mining and Machine Learning, pages 92?98. Springer, 2011. [8] Daniel Lowd and Christopher Meek. Adversarial learning. In Proceedings of the eleventh ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery in data mining, pages 641?647. ACM, 2005. [9] Christoph Karlberger, G?unther Bayler, Christopher Kruegel, and Engin Kirda. Exploiting redundancy in natural language to penetrate bayesian spam filters. WOOT, 7:1?7, 2007. [10] Mehran Sahami, Susan Dumais, David Heckerman, and Eric Horvitz. A bayesian approach to filtering junk e-mail. In Learning for Text Categorization: Papers from the 1998 workshop, volume 62, pages 98?105, 1998. [11] KONG Ying and ZHAO Jie. Learning to filter unsolicited commercial e-mail. International Proceedings of Computer Science & Information Technology, 49, 2012. [12] Vangelis Metsis, Ion Androutsopoulos, and Georgios Paliouras. Spam filtering with naive bayes-which naive bayes? In CEAS, pages 27?28, 2006. [13] Nilesh Dalvi, Pedro Domingos, Sumit Sanghai, Deepak Verma, et al. Adversarial classification. In Proceedings of the tenth ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining, pages 99?108. ACM, 2004. [14] Laurent El Ghaoui, Gert Ren?e Georges Lanckriet, Georges Natsoulis, et al. Robust classification with interval data. Computer Science Division, University of California, 2003. [15] Wei Liu and Sanjay Chawla. A game theoretical model for adversarial learning. In Data Mining Workshops, 2009. ICDMW?09. IEEE International Conference on, pages 25?30. IEEE, 2009. [16] Tom Fawcett. In vivo spam filtering: a challenge problem for kdd. ACM SIGKDD Explorations Newsletter, 5(2):140?148, 2003. [17] Michael Br?uckner and Tobias Scheffer. Stackelberg games for adversarial prediction problems. In Proceedings of the 17th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining, pages 547?555. ACM, 2011. [18] Ion Androutsopoulos, Evangelos F Magirou, and Dimitrios K Vassilakis. A game theoretic model of spam e-mailing. In CEAS, 2005. [19] Tiago A Almeida, Akebo Yamakami, and Jurandy Almeida. Evaluation of approaches for dimensionality reduction applied with naive bayes anti-spam filters. In Machine Learning and Applications, 2009. ICMLA?09. International Conference on, pages 517?522. IEEE, 2009. [20] B. Nelson, B. Rubinstein, L. Huang, A. Joseph, S. Lee, S. Rao, and J. D. Tygar. Query strategies for evading convex-inducing classifiers. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 13:1293?1332, 2012. [21] Bryan Klimt and Yiming Yang. The enron corpus: A new dataset for email classification research. In Machine learning: ECML 2004, pages 217?226. Springer, 2004. [22] Ion Androutsopoulos, John Koutsias, Konstantinos V Chandrinos, George Paliouras, and Constantine D Spyropoulos. An evaluation of naive bayesian anti-spam filtering. arXiv preprint cs/0006013, 2000. [23] K. Bache and M. Lichman. UCI machine learning repository, 2013. [24] Garth P McCormick. Computability of global solutions to factorable nonconvex programs: Part iconvex underestimating problems. Mathematical programming, 10(1):147?175, 1976. 9
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Large-Margin Convex Polytope Machine Alex Kantchelian Michael Carl Tschantz Ling Huang? Peter L. Bartlett Anthony D. Joseph J. D. Tygar UC Berkeley ? {akant|mct|bartlett|adj|tygar}@cs.berkeley.edu ? Datavisor ? ling.huang@datavisor.com Abstract We present the Convex Polytope Machine (CPM), a novel non-linear learning algorithm for large-scale binary classification tasks. The CPM finds a large margin convex polytope separator which encloses one class. We develop a stochastic gradient descent based algorithm that is amenable to massive datasets, and augment it with a heuristic procedure to avoid sub-optimal local minima. Our experimental evaluations of the CPM on large-scale datasets from distinct domains (MNIST handwritten digit recognition, text topic, and web security) demonstrate that the CPM trains models faster, sometimes several orders of magnitude, than state-ofthe-art similar approaches and kernel-SVM methods while achieving comparable or better classification performance. Our empirical results suggest that, unlike prior similar approaches, we do not need to control the number of sub-classifiers (sides of the polytope) to avoid overfitting. 1 Introduction Many application domains of machine learning use massive data sets in dense medium-dimensional or sparse high-dimensional spaces. These domains also require near real-time responses in both the prediction and the model training phases. These applications often deal with inherent nonstationarity, thus the models need to be constantly updated in order to catch up with drift. Today, the de facto algorithm for binary classification tasks at these scales is linear SVM. Indeed, since Shalev-Shwartz et al. demonstrated both theoretically and experimentally that large margin linear classifiers can be efficiently trained at scale using stochastic gradient descent (SGD), the Pegasos [1] algorithm has become a standard building tool for the machine learning practitioner. We propose a novel algorithm for Convex Polytope Machine (CPM) separation exhibiting superior empirical performance to existing algorithms, with running times on a large dataset that are up to five orders of magnitude faster. We conjecture that worst case bounds are independent of the ? number K of faces of the convex polytope and state a theorem of loose upper bounds in terms of K. In theory, as the VC dimension of d-dimensional linear separators is d + 1, a linear classifier in very high dimension d is expected to have a considerable expressiveness power. This argument is often understood as ?everything is separable in high dimensional spaces; hence linear separation is good enough?. However, in practice, deployed systems rarely use a single naked linear separator. One explanation for this gap between theory and practice is that while the probability of a single hyperplane perfectly separating both classes in very high dimensions is high, the resulting classifier margin might be very small. Since the classifier margin also accounts for the generalization power, we might experience poor future classification performance in this scenario. Figure 1a provides a two-dimensional example of a data set that has a small margin when using a single separator (solid line) despite being linearly separable and intuitively easily classified. The intuition that the data is easily classified comes from the data naturally separating into three clusters 1 with two of them in the positive class. Such clusters can form due to the positive instances being generated by a collection of different processes. A B + - + + - 2 1? 1 (a) Instances are perfectly linearly separable (solid line), although with small margin due to positive instances (A & B) having conflicting patterns. We can obtain higher margin by separately training two linear sub-classifiers (dashed lines) on left and right clusters of positive instances, each against all the negative instances, yielding a prediction value of the maximum of the sub-classifiers. (b) The worst-case margin is insensitive to wiggling of sub-classifiers having non-minimal margin. Sub-classifier 2 has the smallest margin, and sub-classifier 1 is allowed to freely move without affecting ? WC . For comparison, the largest-margin solution 10 is shown (dashed lines). Figure 1: Positive (?) and negative (?) instances in continuous two dimensional feature space. As Figure 1a shows, a way of increasing the margins is to introduce two linear separators (dashed lines), one for each positive cluster. We take advantage of this intuition to design a novel machine learning algorithm that will provide larger margins than a single linear classifier while still enjoying much of the computational effectiveness of a simple linear separator. Our algorithm learns a bounded number of linear classifiers simultaneously. The global classifier will aggregate all the sub-classifiers decisions by taking the maximum sub-classifier score. The maximum aggregation has the effect of assigning a positive point to a unique sub-classifier. The model class we have intuitively described above corresponds to convex polytope separators. In Section 2, we present related work in convex polytope classifiers and in Section 3, we define the CPM optimization problem and derive loose upper bounds. In Section 4, we discuss a Stochastic Gradient Descent-based algorithm for the CPM and perform a comparative evaluation in Section 5. 2 Related Work Fischer focuses on finding the optimal polygon in terms of the number of misclassified points drawn independently from an unknown distribution using an algorithm with a running time of more than O(n12 ) where n is the number of sample points [2]. We instead focus on finding good, not optimal, polygons that generalize well in practice despite having fast running times. Our focus on generalization leads us to maximize the margin, unlike this work, which actually minimizes it to make their proofs easier. Takacs proposes algorithms for training convex polytope classifiers based on the smooth approximation of the maximum function [3]. While his algorithms use smooth approximation during training, it uses the original formula during prediction, which introduces a gap that could deteriorate the accuracy. The proposed algorithms achieve similar classification accuracy to several nonlinear classifiers, including KNN, decision tree and kernel SVM. However, the training time of the algorithms is often much longer than those nonlinear classifiers (e.g., an order of magnitude longer than ID3 algorithm and eight times longer than kernel SVM on CHESS DATASET), diminishing the motivation to use the proposed algorithms in realistic setting. Zhang et al. propose an Adaptive Multi-hyperplane Machine (AMM) algorithm that is fast during both training and prediction, and capable of handling nonlinear classification problems [4]. They develop an iterative algorithm based on the SGD method to search for the number of hyperplanes and train the model. Their experiments on several large data sets show that AMM is nearly as fast as the state-of-theart linear SVM solver, and achieves classification accuracy somewhere between linear and kernel 2 SVMs. Manwani and Sastry propose two methods for learning polytope classifiers, one based on logistic function [5], and another based on perceptron method [6], and propose alternating optimization algorithms to train the classifiers. However, they only evaluate the proposed methods with a few small datasets (with no more than 1000 samples in each), and do not compare them to other widely used (nonlinear) classifiers (e.g., KNN, decision tree, SVM). It is unclear how applicable these algorithms are to large-scale data. Our work makes three significant contributions over their work, including 1) deriving the formulation from a large-margin argument and obtaining a regularization term which is missing in [6], 2) safely restricting the choice of assignments to only positive instances, leading to a training time optimization heuristic and 3) demonstrating higher performance on non-synthetic, large scale datasets, when using two CPMs together. 3 Large-Margin Convex Polytopes In this section, we derive and discuss several alternative optimization problems for finding a largemargin convex polytope which separates binary labeled points of Rd . 3.1 Problem Setup and Model Space Let D = {(xi , y i )}1?i?n be a binary labeled dataset of n instances, where x ? Rd and y ? {?1, 1}. For the sake of notational brevity, we assume that the xi include a constant unitary component corresponding to a bias term. Our prediction problem is to find a classifier c : Rd ? {?1, 1} such that c(xi ) is a good estimator of y i . To do so, we consider classifiers constructed from convex K-faced polytope separators for a fixed positive integer K. Let PK be the model space of convex K-faced polytope separators:   K?d d PK = f : R ? R f (x) = max (Wx)k , W ? R 1?k?K For each such function f in PK , we can get a classifier cf such that cf (x) is 1 if f (x) > 0 and ?1 otherwise. This model space corresponds to a shallow single hidden layer neural network with a max aggregator. Note that when K = 1, P1 is simply the space of all linear classifiers. Importantly, when K ? 2, elements of PK are not guaranteed to have additive inverses in PK . As a consequence, the labels y = ?1 and y = +1 are not interchangeable. Geometrically, the negative class remains enclosed within the convex polytope while the positive class lives outside of it, hence the label asymmetry. To construct a classifier without label asymmetry, we can use two polytopes, one with the negative instances on the inside the polytope to get a classification function f? and one with the positive instances on the inside to get f+ . From these two polytopes, we construct the classifier cf? ,f+ where cf? ,f+ (x) is 1 if f? (x) ? f+ (x) > 0 and ?1 otherwise. To better understand the nature of the faces of a single polytope, for a given polytope W and a data point x, we denote by zW (x) the index of the maximum sub-classifier for x: zW (x) = argmax(Wx)k 1?k?K We call zW (x) the assigned sub-classifier for instance x. When clear from context, we drop W from zW . We also use the notation Wk to designate the k-th row of W, which corresponds to the k-th face of the polytope, or the k-th sub-classifier. Hence, Wz(x) identifies the separator assigned to x. We now pursue a geometric large-margin based approach for formulating the concrete optimization problem. To simplify the notations and without loss of generality, we suppose that W is rownormalized such that ||Wk || = 1 for all k. We also initially suppose our dataset is perfectly separable by a K-faced convex polytope. 3.2 Margins for Convex Polytopes When K = 1, the problem reduces to finding a good linear classifier and only a single natural margin ? of the separator exists [7]: ?W = min y i W1 xi 1?i?n 3 Maximizing ?W yields the well known (linear) Support Vector Machine. However, multiple notions of margin for a K-faced convex polytope with K ? 2 exist. We consider two. WC Let the worst case margin ?W be the smallest margin of any point to the polytope. Over all the K sub-classifiers, we find the one with the minimal margin to the closest point assigned to it: WC ?W = min y i Wz(xi ) xi = min min y i Wk xi i 1?i?n 1?k?K i:z(x )=k The worst case margin is very similar to the linear classifier margin but suffers from an important drawback. Maximizing ? WC leaves K ? 1 sub-classifiers wiggling while over-focusing on the subclassifier with the smallest margin. See Figure 1b for a geometrical intuition. Thus, we instead focus on the total margin, which measures each sub-classifier?s margin with respect T to just its assigned points. The total margin ?W is the sum of the K sub-classifiers margins: K X T ?W = min y i Wk xi i k=1 i:z(x )=k The total margin gives the same importance to the K sub-classifier margins. 3.3 Maximizing the Margin We now turn to the question of maximizing the margin. Here, we provide an overview of a smoothed but non-convex optimization problem for maximizing the total margin. The appendix provides a step-by-step derivation. We would like to optimize the margin by solving the optimization problem T max ?W subject to kW1 k = ? ? ? = kWK k = 1 W Introducing one additional variable ?k per classifier, problem (1) is equivalent to: K X ?k subject to ?i, ?z(xi ) ? y i Wz(xi ) xi max W,? k=1 ?1 > 0, . . . , ?K > 0 kW1 k = ? ? ? = kWK k = 1 Considering the unnormalized rows Wk /?k , we obtain the following equivalent formulation: K X 1 max subject to ?i, 1 ? y i Wz(xi ) xi W kWk k (1) (2) (3) k=1 When y = ?1 and z(xi ) satisfy the margin constraint in (3), we have that the constraint holds for every sub-classifier k since y i Wk xi is minimal at k = z(xi ). Thus, when y = ?1, we can enforce the constraint for all k. We can also smooth the objective into a convex, defined everywhere one by minimizing the sum of the inverse squares of the terms instead of maximizing the sum of the terms. We obtain the following smoothed problem: K X min kWk k2 subject to ?i : y i = ?1, ?k ? {1, . . . , K}, 1 + Wk xi ? 0 (4) W i i k=1 i ?i : y = +1, 1 ? Wz(x ) x ? 0 (5) The objective of the above program is now the familiar L2 regularization term kWk2 . The negative instances constraints (4) are convex (linear functions), but the positive terms (5) result in non-convex constraints because of the instance-dependent assignment z. As for the Support Vector Machine, we can introduce n slack variables ?i and a regularization factor C > 0 for the common case of noisy, non-separable data. Hence, the practical problem becomes: n X min kWk2 + C ?i subject to ?i : y i = ?1, ?k ? {1, . . . , K}, 1 + Wk xi ? ?i ? 0 (6) W,? i=1 ?i : y i = +1, 1 ? Wz(xi ) xi ? ?i ? 0 Following the same steps, we obtain the following problem for maximizing the worst-case margin. The only difference is the regularization term in the objective function which becomes maxk kWk k2 instead of kWk2 . 4 Discussion. The goal of our relaxation is to demonstrate that our solution involves two intuitive steps, including (1) assigning positive instances to sub-classifiers, and (2) solving a collection of SVM-like sub-problems. While our solution taken as a whole remains non-convex, this decomposition isolates the non-convexity to a single intuitive assignment problem that is similar to clustering. This isolation enables us to use intuitive heuristics or clustering-like algorithms to handle the nonconvexity. Indeed, in our final form of Eq. (6), if the optimal assignment function z(xi ) of positive instances to sub-classifiers were known and fixed, the problem would be reduced to a collection of perfectly independent convex minimization problems. Each such sub-problem corresponds to a classical SVM defined on all negative instances and the subset of positive instances assigned by z(xi ). It is in this sense that our approach optimizes the total margin. 3.4 Choice of K, Generalization Bound for CPM Assuming we can efficiently solve this optimization problem, we would need to adjust the number K of faces and the degree C of regulation. The following result gives a preliminary generalization bound for the CPM. For B1 , . . . , Bk ? 0, let FK,B be the following subset of the set PK of convex polytope separators:   FK,B = f : Rd ? R f (x) = max (Wx)k , W ? RK?d , ?k, kWk k ? Bk 1?k?K Theorem 1. There exists some constant A > 0 such that for all distributions P over X ? {?1, 1}, K in {1, 2, 3, . . .}, B1 , . . . , Bk ? 0, and ? > 0, with probability at least 1 ? ? over the training set (x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xn , yn ) ? P , any f in FK,B is such that: r P n 1X ln (2/?) k Bk P (yf (x) ? 0) ? max(0, 1 ? yi f (xi )) + A ? + n i=1 2n n This is a uniform bound on the 0-1 risk of classifiers in FK,B . It shows that with high probability, the risk is bounded by the empirical hinge loss plus a capacity term that decreases in n?1/2 ? and is P proportional to the sum of the sub-classifier norms. Note that as we have kW k ? KkWk, k k ? the capacity term is essentially equivalent to KkWk. As a comparison, the generalization error has been previously shown to be proportional to KkWk in [4, Thm. 2]. In practice, this bound is very loose as it does not explain the observed absence of over fitting as K gets large. We experimentally demonstrate this phenomenon in Section 5. We conjecture that there exists a bound that must be independent of K altogether. The proof of Theorem 1 relies on a result due to Bartlett et al. complexities. We first prove that the Rademacher complexity of FK,B is in P on Rademacher ? O( k Bk / n). We then invoke Theorem 7 of [8] to show our result. The appendix contains the full proof. 4 SGD-based Learning In this section, we present a Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) based learning algorithm for approximately solving the total margin maximization problem (6). The choice of SGD is motivated by two factors. First, we would like our learning technique to efficiently scale to several million instances of sparse high dimensional space. The sample-iterative nature of SGD makes it a very suitable candidate to this end [9]. Second, the optimization problem we are solving is non-convex. Hence, there are potentially many local optima which might not result in an acceptable solution. SGD has recently been shown to work well for such learning problems [10] where we might not be interested in a global optimum but only a good enough local optimum from the point of view of the learning problem. Problem (6) can be expressed as an unconstrained minimization problem as follow: min W K X X i:y i =?1 k=1 [1 + Wk xi ]+ + X [1 ? Wz(xi ) xi ]+ + ?kWk2 i:y i =+1 where [x]+ = max(0, x) and ? > 0. This form reveals the strong similarity with optimizing K unconstrained linear SVMs [1]. The difference is that although each sub-classifier is trained on 5 all the negative instances, positive instances are associated to a unique sub-classifier. From the unconstrained form, we can derive the stochastic gradient descent Algorithm 1. For the positive instances, we isolate the task of finding the assigned sub-classifier z to a separate procedure ASSIGN. We use the Pegasos inverse schedule ?t = 1/(?t). Because the optimization problem (6) is non- Algorithm 1 Stochastic gradient descent alconvex, a pure SGD approach could get stuck in a gorithm for solving problem (6). function SGD T RAIN(D, ?, T, (?t ), h) local optimum. We found that pure SGD gets stuck Initialize W ? RK?d , W ? 0 in low-quality local optima in practice. These opfor t ? 1, . . . , T do tima are characterized by assigning most of the posPick (x, y) ? D itive instances to a small number of sub-classifiers. if y = ?1 then In this configuration, the remaining sub-classifiers for k ? 1, . . . , K do serve no purpose. Intuitively, the algorithm clusif Wk x > ?1 then tered the data into large ?super-clusters? ignoring Wk ? Wk ? ?t x the more subtle sub-clusters comprising the larger super-clusters. The large clusters represent an apelse if y = +1 then pealing local optima since breaking one down into z ? argmaxk Wk x sub-clusters often requires transitioning through a if Wz x < 1 then patch of lower accuracy as the sub-classifiers realign z ? ASSIGN(W, x, h) themselves to the new cluster boundaries. We may Wz ? Wz + ?t x view the local optima as the algorithm underfitting the data by using too simple of a model. In this case, W ? (1 ? ?t ?)W the algorithm needs encouragement to explore more return W complex clusterings. With this intuition in mind, we add a term encouraging the algorithm to explore higher entropy configurations of the sub-classifiers. To do so, we use the entropy of the random variable Z = argmaxk Wk x where x ? D+ , a distribution defined on the set of all positive instances as follows. Let nk be the number of positive instances assigned to sub-classifier k, and n be thetotal number of positive instances. We define D+ as the empirical distribution on nn1 , nn2 , . . . , nnk . The entropy is zero when the same classifier fires for all positive instances, and maximal at log2 K when every classifier fires on a K ?1 fraction of the positive instances. Thus, maximizing the entropy encourages the algorithm to break down large clusters into smaller clusters of near equal size. We use this notion of entropy in our heuristic procedure for assignment, described in Algorithm 2. ASSIGN takes a predefined minimum entropy level h ? 0 and compensates for disparities in how positive instances are assigned to sub-classifiers, where the disparity is measured by entropy. When the entropy is above h, there is no need to change the natural argmaxk Wk x assignment. Conversely, if the current entropy is below h, then we pick an assignment which is guaranteed to increase the entropy. Thus, when h = 0, there is no adjustment made. It keeps a dictionary UNADJ mapping the previous points it has encountered to the unadjusted assignment that the natural argmax assignment would had made at the time of encountering the point. We write UNADJ + (x, k) to denote the new dictionary U such that U [v] is equal to k if v = x and to UNADJ[v] otherwise. Dictionary UNADJ keeps track of the assigned positives per sub-classifiers, and serves to estimate the current entropy in the configuration without needing to recompute every prior point?s assignment. 5 Evaluation We use four data sets to evaluate the CPM: (1) an MNIST dataset consisting of labeled handwritten digits encoded in 28 ? 28 gray scale pictures [11, 12] (60,000 training and 10,000 testing instances); (2) an MNIST8m dataset consisting of 8,100,000 pictures obtained by applying various random deformations to MNIST training instances MNIST [13]; (3) a URL dataset [12] used for malicious URL detection [14] (1.1 million training and 1.1 million testing instances in a very large dimensional space of more than 2.3 million features); and (4) the RCV1-bin dataset [12] corresponding to a binary classification task (separating corporate and economics categories from government and markets categories [15]) defined over the RCV1 dataset of news articles (20,242 training and 677,399 testing instances). Since our main focus is on binary classification, for the two MNIST datasets we evaluate 6 distinguishing 2?s from any other digit, which we call MNIST-2 and MNIST8m-2. With thirty times more testing than training data, the RCV1-bin dataset is a good benchmark for over fitting issues. 5.1 Parameter Tuning All four datasets have well defined Algorithm 2 Heuristic maximum assignment algorithm. training and testing subsets and to The input is the current weight matrix W, positive intune each algorithms meta-parameters stance x, and the desired assignment entropy h ? 0. (? and h for the CPM, C and ? for Initialize UNADJ? {} RBF-SVM, and ? for AMM), we ranfunction ASSIGN(W, x, h) domly select a fixed validation subset kunadj ? argmaxk Wk x from the training set (10,000 instances if ENTROPY(UNADJ + (x, kunadj )) ? h then for MNIST-2/MNIST8m-2; 1,000 inkadj ? kunadj stances for RCV1-bin/URL). else For the CPM, we use a double-sided hcur ? ENTROPY(UNADJ) CPM as described in section 3.1, where Kinc ? {k: ENTROPY(UNADJ +(x, k)) > hcur } both CPMs share the same metakadj ? argmax Wk x parameters. We start by fixing a numk?Kinc ber of iterations T and a number of UNADJ ? UNADJ + (x, kunadj ) hyperplanes K which will result in a return kadj reasonable execution time, effectively treating these parameters as a computational budget, and we experimentally demonstrate that increasing either K or T always results in a decrease of the testing error. Once these are selected, we let h = 0 and select the best ? in {T ?1 , 10 ? T ?1 , . . . , 104 ? T ?1 }. We then choose h from {0, log K/10, log 2K/10, . . . , log 9K/10}, effectively performing a one-round coordinate descent on ?, h. To test the effectiveness of our empirical entropy-driven assignment procedure, we mute the mechanism by also testing with h = 0. The AMM has three parameters to adjust (excluding T and the equivalent of K), two of which control the weight pruning mechanism and are left set at default values. We only adjust ?. Contrary to the CPM, we do not observe AMM testing error to strictly decrease with the number of iterations T . We observe erratic behavior and thus we manually select the smallest T for which the mean validation error appears to reach a minimum. For RBF-SVM, we use the LibSVM [16] implementation and perform the usual grid search on the parameter space. 5.2 Performance Unless stated otherwise, we used one core of an Intel Xeon E5 (3.2Ghz, 64GB RAM) for experiments. Table 1 presents the results of experiments and shows that the CPM achieves comparable, and at times better, classification accuracy than the RBF-SVM, while working at a relatively small and constant computational budget. For the CPM, T was up to 32 million and K ranged from 10 to 100. For AMM, T ranged from 500,000 to 36 million. Across methods, the worst execution time is for the MNIST8m-2 task, where a 512 core parallel implementation of RBF-SVM runs in 2 days [17], and our sequential single-core algorithm runs in less than 5 minutes. The AMM has significantly larger errors and/or execution times. For small training sets such as MNIST-2 and RCV1-bin, we were not able to achieve consistent results, regardless of how we set T and ?, and we conjecture that this is a consequence of the weight pruning mechanism. The results show that our empirical entropydriven assignment procedure for the CPM leads to better solutions for all tasks. In the RCV1-bin and MNIST-2 tasks, the improvement in accuracy from using a tuned entropy parameter is 31% and 21%, respectively, which is statistically significant. We use the MNIST8m-2 task to the study the effects of tuning T and K on the CPM. We first choose a grid of values for T, K and for a fixed regularization factor C and h = 0, we train a model for each point of the parameter grid, and evaluate its performance on the testing set. Note that for C 1 to remain constant, we adjust ? = CT . We run each experiment 5 times and only report the mean accuracy. Figure 2 shows how this mean error rate evolves as a function of both T and K. We observe two phenomena. First, for any value K > 1, the error rate decreases with T . Second, for large enough values of T , the error rate decreases when K increases. These two experimental 7 MNIST-2 CPM CPM h=0 RBF-SVM AMM MNIST8m-2 URL RCV1-bin Error Time Error Time Error 0.38 ? 0.028 0.46 ? 0.026 0.35 2.83 ? 1.090 2m 2m 7m 1m 0.30 ? 0.023 0.35 ? 0.034 0.43? 0.38 ? 0.024 4m 4m 2d?? 1hr 1.32 ? 0.012 3m 1.35 ? 0.029 3m Timed out in 2 weeks 2.20 ? 0.067 5m * for unadjusted parameters [17] Time Error Time 2.82 ? 0.059 3.69 ? 0.156 3.7 15.40 ? 6.420 2m 2m 46m 1m ** running on 512 processors [17] Table 1: Error rates and running times (include both training and testing periods) for binary tasks. Means and standard deviations for 5 runs with random shuffling of the training set. observations validate our treatment of both K and T as budgeting parameters. The observation about K also provides empirical evidence of our conjecture that large values of K do not lead to overfitting. 5.3 Multi-class Classification We performed a preliminary multiclass classification experiment using the MNIST/MNIST8m datasets. There are several approaches for building a multi-class classifier from a binary classifier [18, 19, 20]. Weused a one-vs-one approach where we train 10 2 = 45 one-vs-one classifiers and classify by a majority vote rule with random tie breaking. While this approach is not optimal, it provides an approximation of achievable performance. For MNIST, comparing CPM to RBF-SVM, we achieve a testing error of 1.61 ? 0.019 and for the CPM and of 1.47 for RBF-SVM, with running times of 7m20s and 6m43s, respectively. On MNIST8m we achieve an error of 1.03 ? 0.074 for CPM (2h3m) and Figure 2: Error rate on MNIST8m-2 as a function of 0.67 (8 days) for RBF-SVM as reported of K, T . C = 0.01 and h = 0 are fixed. by [13]. 6 Conclusion We propose a novel algorithm for Convex Polytope Machine (CPM) separation that provides larger margins than a single linear classifier, while still enjoying the computational effectiveness of a simple linear separator. Our algorithm learns a bounded number of linear classifiers simultaneously. On large datasets, the CPM outperforms RBF-SVM and AMM, both in terms of running times and error rates. Furthermore, by not pruning the number of sub-classifiers used, CPM is algorithmically simpler than AMM. CPM avoids such complications by having little tendency to overfit the data as the number K of sub-classifiers increases, shown empirically in Section 5.2. References [1] Shai Shalev-Shwartz, Yoram Singer, and Nathan Srebro. Pegasos: Primal Estimated subGrAdient SOlver for SVM. In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML ?07, pages 807?814, New York, NY, USA, 2007. ACM. [2] Paul Fischer. More or less efficient agnostic learning of convex polygons. In Proceedings of the Eighth Annual Conference on Computational Learning Theory, COLT ?95, pages 337?344, New York, NY, USA, 1995. ACM. [3] Gabor Takacs. Smooth maximum based algorithms for classification, regression, and collaborative filtering. Acta Technica Jaurinensis, 3(1), 2010. [4] Zhuang Wang, Nemanja Djuric, Koby Crammer, and Slobodan Vucetic. Trading representability for scalability: adaptive multi-hyperplane machine for nonlinear classification. In Proceed8 ing of the 17th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining (KDD 2011), 2011. [5] Naresh Manwani and P. S. Sastry. Learning polyhedral classifiers using logistic function. In Proceedings of the 2nd Asian Conference on Machine Learning (ACML 2010), Tokyo, Japan, 2010. [6] Naresh Manwani and P. S. Sastry. arXiv:1107.1564, 2013. Polyceptron: A polyhedral learning algorithm. [7] Corinna Cortes and Vladimir Vapnik. Support-vector networks. Machine learning, 20(3):273? 297, 1995. [8] Peter L. Bartlett and Shahar Mendelson. Rademacher and Gaussian complexities: Risk bounds and structural results. J. Mach. Learn. Res., 3:463?482, March 2003. [9] L?eon Bottou. Large-scale machine learning with stochastic gradient descent. In Proceedings of COMPSTAT?2010, pages 177?186. Springer, 2010. [10] Geoffrey E Hinton. A practical guide to training restricted Boltzmann machines. In Neural Networks: Tricks of the Trade, pages 599?619. Springer, 2012. [11] Yann LeCun, Corinna Cortes, and Christopher J.C. Burges. MNIST dataset, 1998. [12] LibSVM datasets. datasets/. http://www.csie.ntu.edu.tw/?cjlin/libsvmtools/ [13] St?ephane Canu and Leon Bottou. Training invariant support vector machines using selective sampling. In Large Scale Kernel Machines, pages 301?320. MIT, 2007. [14] Justin Ma, Lawrence K. Saul, Stefan Savage, and Geoffrey M. Voelker. Beyond blacklists: Learning to detect malicious web sites from suspicious URLs. In Proceedings of the 15th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, KDD ?09, pages 1245?1254, New York, NY, USA, 2009. ACM. [15] David D. Lewis, Yiming Yang, Tony G. Rose, and Fan Li. RCV1: A new benchmark collection for text categorization research. J. Mach. Learn. Res., 5:361?397, December 2004. [16] Chih-Chung Chang and Chih-Jen Lin. Libsvm: A library for support vector machines. ACM Trans. Intell. Syst. Technol., 2(3):27:1?27:27, May 2011. [17] Zeyuan Allen Zhu, Weizhu Chen, Gang Wang, Chenguang Zhu, and Zheng Chen. P-packSVM: Parallel primal gradient descent kernel SVM. In Data Mining, 2009. ICDM?09. Ninth IEEE International Conference on, pages 677?686. IEEE, 2009. [18] Alina Beygelzimer, John Langford, Yuri Lifshits, Gregory Sorkin, and Alex Strehl. Conditional probability tree estimation analysis and algorithms. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Fifth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, UAI ?09, pages 51?58, Arlington, Virginia, United States, 2009. AUAI Press. [19] Alina Beygelzimer, John Langford, and Bianca Zadrozny. Weighted one-against-all. In Proceedings of the 20th National Conference on Artificial Intelligence - Volume 2, AAAI?05, pages 720?725. AAAI Press, 2005. [20] Thomas G. Dietterich and Ghulum Bakiri. Solving multiclass learning problems via errorcorrecting output codes. J. Artif. Int. Res., 2(1):263?286, January 1995. 9
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A Boosting Framework on Grounds of Online Learning Tofigh Naghibi, Beat Pfister Computer Engineering and Networks Laboratory ETH Zurich, Switzerland naghibi@tik.ee.ethz.ch, pfister@tik.ee.ethz.ch Abstract By exploiting the duality between boosting and online learning, we present a boosting framework which proves to be extremely powerful thanks to employing the vast knowledge available in the online learning area. Using this framework, we develop various algorithms to address multiple practically and theoretically interesting questions including sparse boosting, smooth-distribution boosting, agnostic learning and, as a by-product, some generalization to double-projection online learning algorithms. 1 Introduction A boosting algorithm can be seen as a meta-algorithm that maintains a distribution over the sample space. At each iteration a weak hypothesis is learned and the distribution is updated, accordingly. The output (strong hypothesis) is a convex combination of the weak hypotheses. Two dominant views to describe and design boosting algorithms are ?weak to strong learner? (WTSL), which is the original viewpoint presented in [1, 2], and boosting by ?coordinate-wise gradient descent in the functional space? (CWGD) appearing in later works [3, 4, 5]. A boosting algorithm adhering to the first view guarantees that it only requires a finite number of iterations (equivalently, finite number of weak hypotheses) to learn a (1? ?)-accurate hypothesis. In contrast, an algorithm resulting from the CWGD viewpoint (usually called potential booster) may not necessarily be a boosting algorithm in the probability approximately correct (PAC) learning sense. However, while it is rather difficult to construct a boosting algorithm based on the first view, the algorithmic frameworks, e.g., AnyBoost [4], resulting from the second viewpoint have proven to be particularly prolific when it comes to developing new boosting algorithms. Under the CWGD view, the choice of the convex loss function to be minimized is (arguably) the cornerstone of designing a boosting algorithm. This, however, is a severe disadvantage in some applications. In CWGD, the weights are not directly controllable (designable) and are only viewed as the values of the gradient of the loss function. In many applications, some characteristics of the desired distribution are known or given as problem requirements while, finding a loss function that generates such a distribution is likely to be difficult. For instance, what loss functions can generate sparse distributions?1 What family of loss functions results in a smooth distribution?2 We even can go further and imagine the scenarios in which a loss function needs to put more weights on a given subset of examples than others, either because that subset has more reliable labels or it is a problem requirement to have a more accurate hypothesis for that part of the sample space. Then, what 1 In the boosting terminology, sparsity usually refers to the greedy hypothesis-selection strategy of boosting methods in the functional space. However, sparsity in this paper refers to the sparsity of the distribution (weights) over the sample space. 2 A smooth distribution is a distribution that does not put too much weight on any single sample or in other words, a distribution emulated by the booster does not dramatically diverge from the target distribution [6, 7]. 1 loss function can generate such a customized distribution? Moreover, does it result in a provable boosting algorithm? In general, how can we characterize the accuracy of the final hypothesis? Although, to be fair, the so-called loss function hunting approach has given rise to useful boosting algorithms such as LogitBoost, FilterBoost, GiniBoost and MadaBoost [5, 8, 9, 10] which (to some extent) answer some of the above questions, it is an inflexible and relatively unsuccessful approach to addressing the boosting problems with distribution constraints. Another approach to designing a boosting algorithm is to directly follow the WTSL viewpoint [11, 6, 12]. The immediate advantages of such an approach are, first, the resultant algorithms are provable boosting algorithms, i.e., they output a hypothesis of arbitrary accuracy. Second, the booster has direct control over the weights, making it more suitable for boosting problems subject to some distribution constraints. However, since the WTSL view does not offer any algorithmic framework (as opposed to the CWGD view), it is rather difficult to come up with a distribution update mechanism resulting in a provable boosting algorithm. There are, however, a few useful, and albeit fairly limited, algorithmic frameworks such as TotalBoost [13] that can be used to derive other provable boosting algorithms. The TotalBoost algorithm can maximize the margin by iteratively solving a convex problem with the totally corrective constraint. A more general family of boosting algorithms was later proposed by Shalev-Shwartz et. al. [14], where it was shown that weak learnability and linear separability are equivalent, a result following from von Neumann?s minmax theorem. Using this theorem, they constructed a family of algorithms that maintain smooth distributions over the sample space, and consequently are noise tolerant. Their proposed algorithms find an (1? ?)-accurate solution after performing at most O(log(N )/?2 ) iterations, where N is the number of training examples. 1.1 Our Results We present a family of boosting algorithms that can be derived from well-known online learning algorithms, including projected gradient descent [15] and its generalization, mirror descent (both active and lazy updates, see [16]) and composite objective mirror descent (COMID) [17]. We prove the PAC learnability of the algorithms derived from this framework and we show that this framework in fact generates maximum margin algorithms. That is, given a desired accuracy level ?, it outputs a hypothesis of margin ?min ? ? with ?min being the minimum edge that the weak classifier guarantees to return. The duality between (linear) online learning and boosting is by no means new. This duality was first pointed out in [2] and was later elaborated and formalized by using the von Neumann?s minmax theorem [18]. Following this line, we provide several proof techniques required to show the PAC learnability of the derived boosting algorithms. These techniques are fairly versatile and can be used to translate many other online learning methods into our boosting framework. To motivate our boosting framework, we derive two practically and theoretically interesting algorithms: (I) SparseBoost algorithm which by maintaining a sparse distribution over the sample space tries to reduce the space and the computation complexity. In fact this problem, i.e., applying batch boosting on the successive subsets of data when there is not sufficient memory to store an entire dataset, was first discussed by Breiman in [19], though no algorithm with theoretical guarantee was suggested. SparseBoost is the first provable batch booster that can (partially) address this problem. By analyzing this algorithm, we show that the tuning parameter of the regularization term ?1 at each round t should not exceed ?t th 2 ?t to still have a boosting algorithm, where ?t is the coefficient of the t weak hypothesis and ?t is its edge. (II) A smooth boosting algorithm that requires only O(log 1/?) number of rounds to learn a (1? ?)-accurate hypothesis. This algorithm can also be seen as an agnostic boosting algorithm3 due to the fact that smooth distributions provide a theoretical guarantee for noise tolerance in various noisy learning settings, such as agnostic boosting [21, 22]. Furthermore, we provide an interesting theoretical result about MadaBoost [10]. We give a proof (to the best of our knowledge the only available unconditional proof) for the boosting property of (a variant of) MadaBoost and show that, unlike the common presumption, its convergence rate is of O(1/?2 ) rather than O(1/?). 3 Unlike the PAC model, the agnostic learning model allows an arbitrary target function (labeling function) that may not belong to the class studied, and hence, can be viewed as a noise tolerant learning model [20]. 2 Finally, we show our proof technique can be employed to generalize some of the known online learning algorithms. Specifically, consider the Lazy update variant of the online Mirror Descent (LMD) algorithm (see for instance [16]). The standard proof to show that the LMD update scheme achieves vanishing regret bound is through showing its equivalence to the FTRL algorithm [16] in the case that they are both linearized, i.e., the cost function is linear. However, this indirect proof is fairly restrictive when it comes to generalizing the LMD-type algorithms. Here, we present a direct proof for it, which can be easily adopted to generalize the LMD-type algorithms. 2 Preliminaries Let {(xi , ai )}, 1 ? i ? N , be N training samples, where xi ? X and ai ? {?1, +1}. Assume h ? H is a real-valued function mapping X into [?1, 1]. Denote a distribution over the training data by w = [w1 , . . . , wN ]? and define a loss vector d = [?a1 h(x1 ), . . . , ?aN h(xN )]? . We define ? = ?w? d as the edge of the hypothesis h under the distribution w and it is assumed to be positive when h is returned by a weak learner. In this paper we do not consider the branching program based boosters and adhere to the typical boosting protocol (described in Section 1). Since a central notion throughout this paper is that of Bregman divergences, we briefly revisit some of their properties. A Bregman divergence is defined with respect to a convex function R as BR (x, y) = R(x) ? R(y) ? ?R(y)(x ? y)? (1) and can be interpreted as a distance measure between x and y. Due to the convexity of R, a Bregman divergence is always non-negative, i.e., BR (x, y) ? 0. In this work we consider R to be a ?-strongly convex function4 with respect to a norm ||.||. With this choice of R, the Bregman divergence BR (x, y) ? ?2 ||x ? y||2 . As an example, if R(x) = 21 x? x (which is 1-strongly convex with respect to ||.||2 ), then BR (x, y) = 12 ||x ? y||22 is the Euclidean distance. Another example PN is the negative entropy function R(x) = i=1 xi log xi (resulting in the KL-divergence) which is known to be 1-strongly convex over the probability simplex with respect to ?1 norm. The Bregman projection is another fundamental concept of our framework. Definition 1 (Bregman Projection). The Bregman projection of a vector y onto a convex set S with respect to a Bregman divergence BR is ?S (y) = arg min BR (x, y) (2) x?S Moreover, the following generalized Pythagorean theorem holds for Bregman projections. Lemma 1 (Generalized Pythagorean) [23, Lemma 11.3]. Given a point y ? RN , a convex set S ? = ?S (y) as the Bregman projection of y onto S, for all x ? S we have and y Exact: Relaxed: ? ) + BR (? BR (x, y) ? BR (x, y y, y) ?) BR (x, y) ? BR (x, y (3) (4) The relaxed version follows from the fact that BR (? y, y) ? 0 and thus can be ignored. Lemma 2. For any vectors x, y, z, we have (x ? y)? (?R(z) ? ?R(y)) = BR (x, y) ? BR (x, z) + BR (y, z) (5) The above lemma follows directly from the Bregman divergence definition in (1). Additionally, the following definitions from convex analysis are useful throughout the paper. Definition 2 (Norm & dual norm). Let ||.||A be a norm. Then its dual norm is defined as ||y||A? = sup{y? x, ||x||A ? 1} (6) For instance, the dual norm of ||.||2 = ?2 is ||.||2? = ?2 norm and the dual norm of ?1 is ?? norm. Further, Lemma 3. For any vectors x, y and any norm ||.||A , the following inequality holds: 1 1 x? y ? ||x||A ||y||A? ? ||x||2A + ||y||2A? 2 2 4 That is, its second derivative (Hessian in higher dimensions) is bounded away from zero by at least ?. 3 (7) Throughout this paper, we use the shorthands ||.||A = ||.|| and ||.||A? = ||.||? for the norm and its dual, respectively. Finally, before continuing, we establish our notations. Vectors are lower case bold letters and their entries are non-bold letters with subscripts, such as xi of x, or non-bold letter with superscripts if the vector already has a subscript, such as xit of xt . Moreover, an N-dimensional probability simplex is PN denoted by S = {w| i=1 wi = 1, wi ? 0}. The proofs of the theorems and the lemmas can be found in the Supplement. 3 Boosting Framework Let R(x) be a 1-strongly convex function with respect to a norm ||.|| and denote its associated Bregman divergence BR . Moreover, let the dual norm of a loss vector dt be upper bounded, i.e., ||dt ||? ? L. It is easy to verify that for dt as defined in MABoost, L = 1 when ||.||? = ?? and L = N when ||.||? = ?2 . The following Mirror Ascent Boosting (MABoost) algorithm is our boosting framework. Algorithm 1: Mirror Ascent Boosting (MABoost) Input: R(x) 1-strongly convex function, w1 = [ N1 , . . . , N1 ]? and z1 = [ N1 , . . . , N1 ]? For t = 1, . . . , T do (a) Train classifier with wt and get ht , let dt = [?a1 ht (x1 ), . . . , ?aN ht (xN )] and ?t = ?wt? dt . (b) Set ?t = ?t L (c) Update weights: ?R(zt+1 ) = ?R(zt ) + ?t dt ?R(zt+1 ) = ?R(wt ) + ?t dt (d) Project onto S: wt+1 = argmin BR (w, zt+1 ) (lazy update) (active update) w?S End Output: The final hypothesis f (x) = sign   ? h (x) . t t t=1 PT This algorithm is a variant of the mirror descent algorithm [16], modified to work as a boosting algorithm. The basic principle in this algorithm is quite clear. As in ADABoost, the weight of a wrongly (correctly) classified sample increases (decreases). The weight vector is then projected onto the probability simplex in order to keep the weight sum equal to 1. The distinction between the active and lazy update versions and the fact that the algorithm may behave quite differently under different update strategies should be emphasized. In the lazy update version, the norm of the auxiliary variable zt is unbounded which makes the lazy update inappropriate in some situations. In the active update version, on the other hand, the algorithm always needs to access (compute) the previous projected weight wt to update the weight at round t and this may not be possible in some applications (such as boosting-by-filtering). Due to the duality between online learning and boosting, it is not surprising that MABoost (both the active and lazy versions) is a boosting algorithm. The proof of its boosting property, however, reveals some interesting properties which enables us to generalize the MABoost framework. In the following, only the proof of the active update is given and the lazy update is left to Section 3.4. Theorem 1. Suppose that MABoost generates weak hypotheses h1 , . . . , hT whose edges are ?1 , . . . , ?T . Then the error ? of the combined hypothesis f on the training set is bounded and yields for the following R functions: R(w) = R(w) = N X 1 ||w||22 : 2 ? ? PT 1 1 2 t=1 2 ?t ? ? e? wi log wi : i=1 4 PT +1 1 2 t=1 2 ?t (8) (9) In fact, the first bound (8) holds for any 1-strongly convex R, though for some R (e.g., negative entropy) a much tighter bound as in (9) can be achieved. ? ? Proof : Assume w? = [w1? , . . . , wN ] is a distribution vector where wi? = N1? if f (xi ) 6= ai , ? and 0 otherwise. w can be seen as a uniform distribution over the wrongly classified samples by the ensemble hypothesis f . Using this vector and following the approach in [16], we derive the PT upper bound of t=1 ?t (w?? dt ?wt? dt ) where dt = [d1t , . . . ,dN t ] is a loss vector as defined in Algorithm 1.  (10a) (w? ? wt )? ?t dt = (w? ? wt )? ?R(zt+1 ) ? ?R(wt ) = BR (w? , wt ) ? BR (w? , zt+1 ) + BR (wt , zt+1 ) ? BR (w? , wt ) ? BR (w? , wt+1 ) + BR (wt , zt+1 ) (10b) (10c) where the first equation follows Lemma 2 and inequality (10c) results from the relaxed version of Lemma 1. Note that Lemma 1 can be applied here because w? ? S. Further, the BR (wt , zt+1 ) term is bounded. By applying Lemma 3 BR (wt , zt+1 ) + BR (zt+1 , wt ) = (zt+1 ? wt )? ?t dt ? 1 1 ||zt+1 ? wt ||2 + ?t2 ||dt ||2? 2 2 (11) and since BR (zt+1 , wt ) ? 12 ||zt+1 ? wt ||2 due to the 1-strongly convexity of R, we have 1 2 ? ||dt ||2? 2 t Now, replacing (12) into (10c) and summing it up from t = 1 to T , yields BR (wt , zt+1 ) ? T X w?? ?t dt ? wt? ?t dt ? t=1 T X 1 t=1 2 ?t2 ||dt ||2? + BR (w? , w1 ) ? BR (w? , wT +1 ) Moreover, it is evident from the algorithm description that for mistakenly classified samples X  X  T T i ?ai f (xi ) = ?ai sign ?t ht (xi ) = sign ?t dt ? 0 ?xi ? {x|f (xi ) 6= ai } t=1 (12) (13) (14) t=1 PT Following (14), the first term in (13) will be w?? t=1 ?t dt ? 0 and thus, can be ignored. MorePT PT over, by the definition of ?, the second term is t=1 ?wt? ?t dt = t=1 ?t ?t . Putting all these together, ignoring the last term in (13) and replacing ||dt ||2? with its upper bound L, yields ?BR (w? , w1 ) ? L T X 1 t=1 2 ?t2 ? T X ?t ?t (15) t=1 Replacing the left side with ?BR = ?||w? ? w1 ||2 = ??1 N ? for the case of quadratic R, and with ?BR = log(?) when R is a negative entropy function, taking the derivative w.r.t ?t and equating it to zero (which yields ?t = ?Lt ) we achieve the error bounds in (8) and (9). Note that in the case of R being the negative entropy function, Algorithm 1 degenerates into ADABoost with a different choice of ?t . Before continuing our discussion, it is important to mention that the cornerstone concept of the proof is the choice of w? . For instance, a different choice of w? results in the following max-margin theorem. Theorem 2. Setting ?t = ?? t , L t MABoost outputs a hypothesis of margin at least ?min ? ?, where ? ? T ) rounds of boosting. is a desired accuracy level and tends to zero in O( log T Observations: Two observations follow immediately from the proof of Theorem 1. First, the requirement of using Lemma 1 is w? ? S, so in the case of projecting onto a smaller convex set Sk ? S, as long as w? ? Sk holds, the proof is intact. Second, only the relaxed version of Lemma 1 is required in the proof (to obtain inequality (10c)). Hence, if there is an approximate projection  ? S (zt+1 ) , it can be substituted ? S that satisfies the inequality BR (w? , zt+1 ) ? BR w? , ? operator ? 5 for the exact projection operator ?S and the active update version of the algorithm still works. A practical approximate operator of this type can be obtained by using the double-projection strategy as in Lemma 4. Lemma 4. Consider the convex  sets K and S, where S ? K. Then for any x ? S and N ? y ? R , ?S (y) = ?S ?K (y) is an approximate projection operator that satisfies BR (x, y) ?  ? S (y) . BR x, ? These observations are employed to generalize Algorithm 1. However, we want to emphasis that the approximate Bregman projection is only valid for the active update version of MABoost. 3.1 Smooth Boosting Let k > 0 be a smoothness parameter. A distribution w is smooth w.r.t a given distribution D if wi ? kDi for all 1 ? i ? N . Here, we consider the smoothness w.r.t to the uniform distribution, i.e., Di = N1 . Then, given a desired smoothness parameter k, we require a boosting algorithm k that only constructs distributions w such that wi ? N , while guaranteeing to output a (1 ? k1 )accurate hypothesis. To this end, we only need to replace the probability simplex S with Sk = P k {w| N i=1 wi = 1, 0 ? wi ? N } in MABoost to obtain a smooth distribution boosting algorithm, called smooth-MABoost. That is, the update rule is: wt+1 = argmin BR (w, zt+1 ). w?Sk Note that the proof of Theorem 1 holds for smooth-MABoost, as well. As long as ? ? k1 , the error k . Thus, based distribution w? (wi? = N1? if f (xi ) 6= ai , and 0 otherwise) is in Sk because N1? ? N 1 on the first observation, the error bounds achieved in Theorem 1 hold for ? ? k . In particular, ? = k1 is reached after a finite number of iterations. This projection problem has already appeared in the literature. An entropic projection algorithm (R is negative entropy), for instance, was proposed in [14]. Using negative entropy and their suggested projection algorithm results in a fast smooth boosting algorithm with the following convergence rate. PN Theorem 3. Given R(w) = i=1 wi log wi and a desired ?, smooth-MABoost finds a (1 ? ?)accurate hypothesis in O(log( 1? )/? 2 ) of iterations. 3.2 Combining Datasets Let?s assume we have two sets of data. A primary dataset A and a secondary dataset B. The goal is to train a classifier that achieves (1 ? ?) accuracy on A while limiting the error on dataset B to ?B ? k1 . This scenario has many potential applications including transfer learning [24], weighted combination of datasets based on their noise level and emphasizing on a particular region of a sample space as a problem requirement (e.g., a medical diagnostic test that should not make a wrong diagnosis when the sample is a pregnant woman). To address this problem, we only need to replace PN k ?i ? B} where i ? A S in MABoost with Sc = {w| i=1 wi = 1, 0 ? wi ?i ? A ? 0 ? wi ? N shorthands the indices of samples in A. By generating smooth distributions on B, this algorithm limits the weight of the secondary dataset, which intuitively results in limiting its effect on the final hypothesis. The proof of its boosting property is quite similar to Theorem 1 and can be found in the Supplement. 3.3 Sparse Boosting Let R(w) = 12 ||w||22 . Since in this case the projection onto the simplex is in fact an ?1 -constrained optimization problem, it is plausible that some of the weights are zero (sparse distribution), which is already a useful observation. To promote the sparsity of the weight vector, we want to directly regularize the projection with the ?1 norm, i.e., adding ||w||1 to the objective function in the projection step. It is, however, not possible in MABoost, since ||w||1 is trivially constant on the simplex. Therefore, following the second observation, we split the projection step into two consecutive projections. The first projection is onto K, an N -dimensional unit hypercube K = {y|0 ? yi ? 1}. This projection is regularized with the ?1 norm and the solution is then projected onto a simplex. Note 6 that the second projection can only make the solution sparser (look at the projection onto simplex algorithm in [25]). Algorithm 2: SparseBoost Let K be a hypercube and S a probability simplex; Set w1 = [ N1 , . . . , N1 ]? ; At t = 1, . . . , T , train ht with wt , set ?t = ?Nt and 0 ? ?t < ?2t , and update zt+1 = wt + ?t dt yt+1 = arg min ||y ? zt+1 ||2 + ?t ?t ||y||1 y?K wt+1 = arg min ||w ? yt+1 ||2 w?S Output the final hypothesis f (x) = sign   t=1 ?t ht (x) . PT ?t is the regularization factor at round t. Since ?t ?t controls the sparsity of the solution, it is natural to investigate the maximum value that ?t can take, provided that the boosting property still holds. This bound is implicit in the following theorem. Theorem 4. Suppose that SparseBoost generates weak hypotheses h1 , . . . , hT whose edges are ?1 , . . . , ?T . Then, as long as ?t ? ?2t , the error ? of the combined hypothesis f on the training set is bounded as follows: 1 (16) ? ? PT 1 t=1 2 ?t (?t ? 2?t ) + 1 See the Supplement for the proof. It is noteworthy that SparseBoost can be seen as a variant of the COMID algorithm [17] with the difference that SparseBoost uses a double-projection or as called in Lemma 4, approximate projection strategy. 3.4 Lazy Update Boosting In this section, we present the proof for the lazy update version of MABoost (LAMABoost) in Theorem 1. The proof technique is novel and can be used to generalize several known online learning algorithms such as OMDA in [26] and Meta algorithm in [27]. Moreover, we show that MadaBoost [10] can be presented in the LAMABoost setting. This gives a simple proof for MadaBoost without making the assumption that the edge sequence is monotonically decreasing (as in [10]). ? ? Proof : Assume w? = [w1? , . . . , wN ] is a distribution vector where wi? = N1? if f (xi ) 6= ai , and 0 otherwise. Then,  (w? ? wt )? ?t dt = (wt+1 ? wt )? ?R(zt+1 ) ? ?R(zt )   + (zt+1 ? wt+1 )? ?R(zt+1 ) ? ?R(zt ) + (w? ? zt+1 )? ?R(zt+1 ) ? ?R(zt ) 1 1 ? ||wt+1 ? wt ||2 + ?t2 ||dt ||2? + BR (wt+1 , zt+1 ) ? BR (wt+1 , zt ) + BR (zt+1 , zt ) 2 2 ? BR (w? , zt+1 ) + BR (w? , zt ) ? BR (zt+1 , zt ) 1 1 ? ||wt+1 ? wt ||2 + ?t2 ||dt ||2? ? BR (wt+1 , wt ) 2 2 + BR (wt+1 , zt+1 ) ? BR (wt , zt ) ? BR (w? , zt+1 ) + BR (w? , zt ) (17) where the first inequality follows applying Lemma 3 to the first term and Lemma 2 to the rest of the terms and the second inequality is the result of applying the exact version of Lemma 1 to BR (wt+1 , zt ). Moreover, since BR (wt+1 , wt ) ? 21 ||wt+1 ? wt ||2 ? 0, they can be ignored in (17). Summing up the inequality (17) from t = 1 to T , yields ? ?BR (w , z1 ) ? L T X 1 t=1 2 ?t2 ? T X ?t ?t (18) t=1 PT PT PT where we used the facts that w?? t=1 ?t dt ? 0 and t=1 ?wt? ?t dt = t=1 ?t ?t . The above inequality is exactly the same as (15), and replacing ?BR with ??1 N ? or log(?) yields the same 7 error bounds in Theorem 1. Note that, since the exact version of Lemma 1 is required to obtain (17), this proof does not reveal whether LAMABoost can be generalized to employ the doubleprojection strategy. In some particular cases, however, we may show that a double-projection variant of LAMABoost is still a provable boosting algorithm. In the following, we briefly show that MadaBoost can be seen as a double-projection LAMABoost. Algorithm 3: Variant of MadaBoost ? Let R(w) be the negative entropy and K a unit hypercube; Set z1 = [1,   . . . , 1] ; Pt At t = 1, . . . , T , train ht with wt , set ft (x) = sign t? =1 ?t? ht? (x) and calculate PN 1 |ft (xi ) ? ai | ?t = i=1 2 N , set ?t = ?t ?t and update i ?R(zt+1 ) = ?R(zt ) + ?t dt i ? zt+1 = zti e?t dt yt+1 = arg min BR (y, zt+1 ) i i ? yt+1 = min(1, zt+1 ) wt+1 = arg min BR (w, yt+1 ) i ? wt+1 = y?K w?S Output the final hypothesis f (x) = sign  i yt+1 ||yt+1 ||1  t=1 ?t ht (x) . PT Algorithm 3 is essentially MadaBoost, only with a different choice of ?t . It is well-known that the entropy projection onto the probability simplex results in the normalization and thus, the second projection of Algorithm 3. The entropy projection onto the unit hypercube, however, maybe less known and thus, its proof is given in the Supplement. Theorem 5. Algorithm 3 yields a (1? ?)-accurate hypothesis after at most T = O( 1 ?2 ? 2 ). This is an important result since it shows that MadaBoost seems, at least in theory, to be slower than what we hoped, namely O( 1 2 ). ?? 4 Conclusion and Discussion In this work, we provided a boosting framework that can produce provable boosting algorithms. This framework is mainly suitable for designing boosting algorithms with distribution constraints. A sparse boosting algorithm that samples only a fraction of examples at each round was derived from this framework. However, since our proposed algorithm cannot control the exact number of zeros in the weight vector, a natural extension to this algorithm is to develop a boosting algorithm that receives the sparsity level as an input. However, this immediately raises the question: what is the maximum number of examples that can be removed at each round from the dataset, while still achieving a (1? ?)-accurate hypothesis? The boosting framework derived in this work is essentially the dual of the online mirror descent algorithm. This framework can be generalized in different ways. Here, we showed that replacing the Bregman projection step with the double-projection strategy, or as we call it approximate Bregman projection, still results in a boosting algorithm in the active version of MABoost, though this may not hold for the lazy version. In some special cases (MadaBoost for instance), however, it can be shown that this double-projection strategy works for the lazy version as well. Our conjecture is that under some conditions on the first convex set, the lazy version can also be generalized to work with the approximate projection operator. Finally, we provided a new error bound for the MadaBoost algorithm that does not depend on any assumption. Unlike the common conjecture, the convergence rate of MadaBoost (at least with our choice of ?) is of O(1/?2 ). Acknowledgments This work was partially supported by SNSF. We would like to thank Professor Rocco Servedio for an inspiring email conversation and our colleague Hui Liang for his helpful comments. 8 References [1] R. E. Schapire. The strength of weak learnability. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 1990. [2] Y. Freund and R. E. Schapire. A decision-theoretic generalization of on-line learning and an application to boosting. Journal of Computer and System Sciences, 1997. [3] L. Breiman. Prediction games and arcing algorithms. Neural Computation, 1999. [4] L. Mason, J. Baxter, P. Bartlett, and M. Frean. Boosting algorithms as gradient descent. In NIPS, 1999. [5] J. Friedman, T. Hastie, and R. Tibshirani. Additive logistic regression: a statistical view of boosting. Annals of Statistics, 1998. [6] R. A. Servedio. Smooth boosting and learning with malicious noise. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2003. [7] D. Gavinsky. Optimally-smooth adaptive boosting and application to agnostic learning. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2003. 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A survey: The convex optimization approach to regret minimization. Working draft, 2009. [17] J. C. Duchi, S. Shalev-shwartz, Y. Singer, and A. Tewari. Composite objective mirror descent. In COLT, 2010. [18] Y. Freund and R. E. Schapire. Game theory, on-line prediction and boosting. In COLT, 1996. [19] L. Breiman. Pasting bites together for prediction in large data sets and on-line. Technical report, Dept. Statistics, Univ. California, Berkeley, 1997. [20] M. J. Kearns, R. E. Schapire, and L. M. Sellie. Toward efficient agnostic learning. In COLT, 1992. [21] A. Kalai and V. Kanade. Potential-based agnostic boosting. In NIPS. 2009. [22] S. Ben-David, P. Long, and Y. Mansour. Agnostic boosting. In COLT. 2001. [23] N. Cesa-Bianchi and G. Lugosi. Prediction, Learning, and Games. Cambridge University Press, 2006. [24] W. Dai, Q. Yang, G. Xue, and Y. Yong. Boosting for transfer learning. In ICML, 2007. [25] W. Wang and M. A. Carreira-Perpi?na? n. Projection onto the probability simplex: An efficient algorithm with a simple proof, and an application. arXiv:1309.1541, 2013. [26] A. Rakhlin and K. Sridharan. Online learning with predictable sequences. In COLT, 2013. [27] C. Chiang, T. Yang, C. Lee, M. Mahdavi, C. Lu, R. Jin, and S. Zhu. Online optimization with gradual variations. In COLT, 2012. 9
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Multi-Resolution Cascades for Multiclass Object Detection Nuno Vasconcelos Statistical Visual Computing Laboratory University of California, San Diego nuno@ucsd.edu Mohammad Saberian Yahoo! Labs saberian@yahoo-inc.com Abstract An algorithm for learning fast multiclass object detection cascades is introduced. It produces multi-resolution (MRes) cascades, whose early stages are binary target vs. non-target detectors that eliminate false positives, late stages multiclass classifiers that finely discriminate target classes, and middle stages have intermediate numbers of classes, determined in a data-driven manner. This MRes structure is achieved with a new structurally biased boosting algorithm (SBBoost). SBBost extends previous multiclass boosting approaches, whose boosting mechanisms are shown to implement two complementary data-driven biases: 1) the standard bias towards examples difficult to classify, and 2) a bias towards difficult classes. It is shown that structural biases can be implemented by generalizing this class-based bias, so as to encourage the desired MRes structure. This is accomplished through a generalized definition of multiclass margin, which includes a set of bias parameters. SBBoost is a boosting algorithm for maximization of this margin. It can also be interpreted as standard multiclass boosting algorithm augmented with margin thresholds or a cost-sensitive boosting algorithm with costs defined by the bias parameters. A stage adaptive bias policy is then introduced to determine bias parameters in a data driven manner. This is shown to produce MRes cascades that have high detection rate and are computationally efficient. Experiments on multiclass object detection show improved performance over previous solutions. 1 Introduction There are many learning problems where classifiers must make accurate decisions quickly. A prominent example is the problem of object detection in computer vision, where a sliding window is scanned throughout an image, generating hundreds of thousands of image sub-windows. A classifier must then decide if each sub-window contains certain target objects, ideally at video frame-rates, i.e. less than a micro second per window. The problem of simultaneous real-time detection of multiple class of objects subsumes various important applications in computer vision alone. These range from the literal detection of many objects (e.g. an automotive vision system that must detect cars, pedestrians, traffic signs), to the detection of objects at multiple semantic resolutions (e.g. a camera that can both detect faces and recognize certain users), to the detection of different aspects of the same object (e.g. by defining classes as different poses). A popular architecture for real-time object detection is the detector cascade of Figure 1-a [17]. This is implemented as a sequence of simple to complex classification stages, each of which can either reject the example x to classify or pass it to the next stage. An example that reaches the end of the cascade is classified as a target. Since targets constitute a very small portion of the space of image sub-windows, most examples can be rejected in the early cascade stages, by classifiers of very small computation. In result, the average computation per image is small, and the cascaded detector is very fast. While the design of cascades for real-time detection of a single object class has been the subject of extensive research [18, 20, 2, 15, 1, 12, 14], the simultaneous detection of multiple objects has received much less attention. 1 DeteectorCascade(all) ? DeetectorCasscade(M) DetectorCascade(2) D DetectorCascade(1) D ? DetectorC Cascade(M M) DetectorCascade(2 2) DetectorCascade(1 1) ClassEstimator Class Estimator ClassEstimator ? (a) (b) (c) (d) Figure 1: a) detector cascade [17], b) parallel cascade [19], c) parallel cascade with pre-estimator [5] and d) all-class cascade with post-estimator. Most solutions for multiclass cascade learning simply decompose the problem into several binary (single class) detection sub-problems. They can be grouped into two main classes. Methods in the first class, here denoted parallel cascades [19], learn a cascaded detector per object class (e.g. view), as shown in Figure 1-b, and rely on some post-processing to combine their decisions. This has two limitations. The first is the well known sub-optimality of one-vs.-all multiclass classification, since scores of independently trained detectors are not necessarily comparable [10]. Second, because there is no sharing of features across detectors, the overall classifier performs redundant computations and tends to be very slow. This has motivated work in feature sharing. Examples include JointBoost [16], which exhaustively searches for features to be shared between classes, and [11], which implicitly partitions positive examples and performs a joint search for the best partition and features. These methods have large training complexity. The complexity of the parallel architecture can also be reduced by first making a rough guess of the target class and then running only one of the binary detectors, as in Figure 1-c. We refer to these methods as parallel cascades with pre-estimator [5]. While, for some applications (e.g. where classes are object poses), it is possible to obtain a reasonable pre-estimate of the target class, pre-estimation errors are difficult to undo. Hence, this classifier must be fairly accurate. Since it must also be fast, this approach boils down to real-time multiclass classification, i.e. the original problem. [4] proposed a variant of this method, where multiple detectors are run after the pre-estimate. This improves accuracy but increases complexity. In this work, we pursue an alternative strategy, inspired by Figure 1-d. Target classes are first grouped into an abstract class of positive patches. A detector cascade is then trained to distinguish these patches from everything else. A patch identified as positive is finally fed to a multiclass classifier, for assignment to one of the target classes. In comparison to parallel cascades, this has the advantage of sharing features across all classes, eliminating redundant computation. When compared to the parallel cascade with pre-estimator, it has the advantage that the complexity of its class estimator has little weight in the overall computation, since it only processes a small percentage of the examples. This allows the use of very accurate/complex estimators. The main limitation is that the design of a cascade to detect all positive patches can be quite difficult, due to the large intraclass variability. This is, however, due to the abrupt transition between the all-class and multiclass regimes. While it is difficult to build an all-class detector with high detection and low false-positive rate, we show that this is really not needed. Rather than the abrupt transition of Figure 1-d, we propose to learn a multiclass cascade that gradually progresses from all-class to multiclass. Early stages are binary all-class detectors, aimed at eliminating sub-windows in background image regions. Intermediate stages are classifiers with intermediate numbers of classes, determined by the structure of the data itself. Late stages are multiclass classifiers of high accuracy/complexity. Since these cascades represent the set of classes at different resolutions, they are denoted multi-resolution (MRes) cascades. To learn MRes cascades, we consider a M -class classification problem and define a negative class M + 1, which contains all non-target examples. We then analyze a recent multiclass boosting algorithm, MCBoost [13], showing that its weighting mechanism has two components. The first is the standard weighting of examples by how well they are classified at each iteration. The second, and more relevant to this work, is a similar weighting of the classes according to their difficulty. MC2 Boost is shown to select the weak learner of largest margin on the reweighted training sample, under a biased definition of margin that reflects the class weights. This is a data-driven bias, based purely on classification performance, which does not take computational efficiency into account. To induce the MRes behavior, it must be complemented by a structural bias that modifies the class weighting to encourage the desired multi resolution structure. We show that this can be implemented by augmenting MCBoost with structural bias parameters that lead to a new structurally biased boosting algorithm (SBBoost). This can also be seen as a variant of boosting with tunable margin thresholds or as boosting under a cost-sensitive risk. By establishing a connection between the bias parameters and the computational complexity of cascade stages, we then derive a stage adaptive bias policy that guarantees computationally efficient MRes cascades of high detection rate. Experiments in multi-view car detection and simultaneous detection of multiple traffic signs show that the resulting classifiers are faster and more accurate than those previously available. 2 Boosting with structural biases Consider the design of a M class cascade. The M target classes are augmented with a class M + 1, the negative class, containing non-target examples. The goal is to learn a multiclass cascade detector H[h1 (x), . . . , hr (x)] with r stages. This has the structure of Figure 1-a but, instead of a binary detector, each stage is a multiclass classifier hk (x) : X ?{1, . . . , M + 1}. Mathematically,  hr (x) if hk (x) 6= M + 1 ?k, H[h1 (x), . . . , hr (x)] = (1) M +1 if ?k| hk (x) = M + 1. We propose to learn the cascade stages with an extension of the MCBoost framework for multiclass boosting of [13]. The class labels {1, . . . , M + 1} are first translated into a set of codewords PM +1 {y1 , . . . , yM +1 } ? RM that form a simplex where i=1 yi = 0. MCBoost uses the codewords to learn a M -dimensional predictor F ? (x) = [f1 (x), . . . , fM (x)] ? RM so that ? +1 X ? Pn M 1 ? ? F (x) = arg minF (x) R[F ] = n1 i=1 e? 2 [hyzi ,F (xi )i?hyj ,F (xi )i] (2) j=1 ? ? s.t F (x) ? span(G), where G = {gi } is a set of weak learners. This is done by iterative descent [3, 9]. At each iteration, the best update for F (x) is identified as gk? = arg max ??R[F ; g], (3) g?G with ??R[F ; g] n M +1 1 ?R[f t + g] 1XX = ? = hg(xi ), yzi ? yk ie? 2 hF (xi ),yzi ?yk i . ? 2 i=1 =0 (4) k=1 The optimal step size along this weak learner direction is ?? = arg min R[F (x) + ?g ? (x)], (5) and the predictor is updated according to F (x) = F (x) + ?? g ? (x). The final decision rule is h(x) = arg max hyk , F ? (xi )i. (6) ??R k=1...M +1 We next provide an analysis of the updates of (3) which inspires the design of MRes cascades. Weak learner selection: the multiclass margin of predictor F (x) for an example x from class z is M(z, F (x)) = hF (x), yz i ? maxhF (x), yj i = minhF (x), yz ? yj i, (7) j6=z j6=z where hF (x), yz ? yj i is the margin component of F (x) with respect to class j. Rewriting (3) as n ??R[F ; g] = 1X 2 i=1 M +1 X 1 hg(xi ), yzi ? yk ie? 2 hF (xi ),yzi ?yk i n = (8) k=1|k6=zi 1X w(xi )hg(xi ), 2 i=1 3 M +1 X k=1|k6=zi ?k (xi )(yzi ? yk )i, (9) where w(xi ) = M X 1 e ? 21 hF (xi ),yzi ?yk i , ?k (xi ) = PM e? 2 hF (xi ),yzi ?yk i k=1|k6=zi k=1|k6=zi 1 e? 2 hF (xi ),yzi ?yk i . (10) enables the interpretation of MCBoost as a generalization of AdaBoost. From (10), an example xi has large weight w(xi ) if F (xi ) has at least one large negative margin component, namely hF (xi ), yz ? yi < 0 y = arg min hF (xi ), yz ? yj i. for yj 6=yz (11) In this case, it follows from (6) that xi is incorrectly classified into the class of codeword y. In summary, as in AdaBoost, the weighting mechanism of (9) emphasizes examples incorrectly classified by the current predictor F (x). However, in the multiclass setting, this is only part of the weighting mechanism, since the terms ?k (xi ) of (9)-(10) are coefficients of a soft-min operator over margin components hF (xi ), yzi ? yk i. Assuming the soft-min closely approximates the min, (9) becomes ??R[F ; g] ? n X w(xi )MF (yzi , g(xi )), (12) i=1 where MF (z, g(x)) = hg(x), yz ? yi. (13) and y is the codeword of (11). This is the multiclass margin of weak learner g(x) under an alternative margin definition MF (z, g(x)). Comparing to the original definition of (7), which can be written as M(z, g(x)) = 1 hg(x), yz ? yi 2 where y = arg min hg(x), yz ? yj i, yj 6=yz (14) MF (yz , g(x)) restricts the margin of g(x) to the worst case codeword y for the current predictor F (x). The strength of this restriction is determined by the soft-min operator. If < F (x), yz ? y > is much smaller than < F (x), yz ? yj > ?y j 6= y, ?k (x) closely approximates the minimum operator and (12) is identical to (9). Otherwise, the remaining codewords also contribute to (9). In summary, ?k (xi ) is a set of class weights that emphasizes classes of small margin for F (x). The inner product of (9) is the margin of g(x) after this class reweighting. Overall, MCBoost weights introduce a bias towards difficult examples (weights w) and difficult classes (margin MF ). Structural biases: The core idea of cascade design is to bias the learning algorithm towards computationally efficient classifier architectures. This is not a data driven bias, as in the previous section, but a structural bias, akin to the use of a prior (in Bayesian learning) to guarantee that a graphical model has a certain structure. For example, because classifier speed depends critically on the ability to quickly eliminate negative examples, the initial cascade stages should effectively behave as a binary classifier (all classes vs. negative). This implies that the learning algorithm should be biased towards predictors of large margin component hF (x), yz ? yM +1 i with respect to the negative class j = M + 1. We propose to implement this structural bias by forcing yM +1 to be the dominant codeword in the soft-min weighting of (10). This is achieved by rescaling the soft-min ? 21 hF (xi ),yzi ?yk i coefficients, i.e. by using an alternative soft-min operator ?? , where k (xi ) ? ?k e ?k = ? ? [0, 1] for k 6= M + 1 and ?M +1 = 1. The parameter ? controls the strength of the structural bias. When ? = 0, ?? k (xi ) assigns all weight to codeword yM +1 and the structural bias dominates. For 0 < ? < 1 the bias of ?? k (xi ) varies between the data driven bias of ?k (xi ) and the structural bias towards yM +1 . When ? = 1, ?? k (xi ) = ?k (xi ), the bias is purely data driven, as in MCBoost. More generally, we can define biases towards any classes (beyond j = M + 1) by allowing different ?k ? [0, 1] for different k 6= M + 1. From (10), this is equivalent to redefining the margin components as hF (xi ), yzi ? yk i ? 2 log ?k . Finally the biases can be adaptive with respect to the class of xi , by redefining the margin components as hF (xi ), yzi ? yk i ? ?zi ,k . Under this structurally biased margin, the approximate boosting updates of (12) become ??R[F ; g] ? n X w(xi )McF (yzi , g(xi )), (15) i=1 where McF (z, g(x)) = hg(x), yz ? y?i ? ?zi ,k y? = arg min hF (x), yz ? yj i ? ?zi ,k . yj 6=yz 4 (16) This is, in turn, equivalent to the approximation of (9) by (12) under the definition of margin as Mc (z, F (x)) = minhF (x), yz ? yj i ? ?z,j , j6=z (17) and boosting weights wc (xi ) = M X 1 1 e? 2 [hF (xi ),yzi ?yk i??zi ,k ] , ?ck (xi ) = PM e? 2 [hF (xi ),yzi ?yk i??zi ,k ] l=1|k6=zi k=1|k6=zi 1 e? 2 [hF (xi ),yzi ?yl i??zi ,l ] . (18) We denote the boosting algorithm with these weights as structurally biased boosting (SBBoost). Alternative interpretations: the parameters ?zi ,k , which control the amount of structural bias, can be seen as thresholds on the margin components. For binary classification, where M = 1, y1 = 1, y2 = ?1 and F (x) is scalar, (7) reduces to the standard margin M(z, F (x)) = yz F (x), (10) to the standard boosting weights w(xi ) = e?yzi F (xi ) and ?k (xi ) = 1, k ? {1, 2}. In this case, MCBoost is identical to AdaBoost. SBBoost can thus been seen as an extension of AdaBoost, where the margin is redefined to include thresholds ?zi according to Mc (z, F (x)) = yz F (x) ? ?z . By controlling the thresholds it is possible to bias the learned classifier towards accepting or rejecting more examples. For multiclass classification, a larger ?z,j encodes a larger bias against assigning examples from class z to class j. This behavior is frequently denoted as cost-sensitive classification. While it can be achieved by training a classifier with AdaBoost (or MCBoost) and adding thresholds to the final decision rule, this is suboptimal since it corresponds to using a classification boundary on which the predictor F (x) was not trained [8]. Due to Boosting?s weighting mechanism (which emphasizes a small neighborhood of the classification boundary), classification accuracy can be quite poor when the thresholds are introduced a-posteriori. Significantly superior performance is achieved when the thresholds are accounted for by the learning algorithm, as is the case for SBBoost. Boosting algorithms with this property are usually denoted as cost-sensitive and derived by introducing a set of classification costs in the risk of (2). It can be shown, through a derivation identical to that of Section 2, that SBBoost is a cost-sensitive boosting algorithm with respect to the risk c R [F ] = n M +1 1 1XX Cz,j e? 2 hyzi ,F (xi )i?hyj ,F (xi )i n i=1 j=1 (19) with ?z,j = 12 log Cz,j . Under this interpretation, the bias parameters ?z,j are the log-costs of assigning examples of class z to class j. For binary classification, SBBoost reduces to the costsensitive boosting algorithm of [18]. 3 Boosting MRes cascades In this section we discuss a strategy for the selection of bias parameters ?i,j that encourage multiresolution behavior. We start by noting that some biases must be shared by all stages. For example, while a cascade cannot recover a rejected target, the false-positives of a stage can be rejected by its successors. Hence, the learning of each stage must enforce a bias against target rejections, at the cost of increased false-positive rates. This high detection rate problem has been the subject of extensive research in binary cascade learning, where a bias against assigning examples to the negative class is commonly used [18, 8]. The natural multiclass extension is to use much larger thresholds for the margin components with respect to the negative class than the others, i.e. ?k,M +1  ?M +1,k ?k = 1, . . . , M. (20) We implement this bias with the thresholds ?k,M +1 = log ? ?M +1,k = log(1 ? ?) ? ? [0.5, 1]. (21) The value of ? is determined by the target detection rate of the cascade. For each boosting iteration, we set ? = 0.5 and measure the detection rate of the cascade. If this falls below the target rate, ? is increased to (? + 1)/2. The process is repeated until the desired rate is achieved. There is also a need for structural biases that vary with the cascade stage. For example, the computational complexity ct+1 of stage t + 1 is proportional to the product of the per-example complexity 5 t+1 of the classifier (e.g. number of weak learners) and the number of image sub-windows that it evaluates. Since the latter is dominated by the false positives rate of the previous cascade stages, f pt , it follows that ct+1 ? f pt t+1 . Since f pt decreases with t, an efficient cascade must have early stages of low complexity and more complicated detectors in later stages. This suggests the use of stages that gradually progress from binary to multiclass. Early stages eliminate false-positives, late stages are accurate multiclass classifiers. In between, the cascade stages should detect intermediate numbers of classes, according to the structure of the data. Cascades with this structure represent the set of classes at different resolutions and are denoted Multi-Resolution (MRes) cascades. To encourage the MRes structure, we propose the following stage adaptive bias policy ? ?k, l ? {1, . . . , M } ? ? t = log Ff pPt t ?k,l = (22) log ? for k ? {1, . . . , M } and l = M + 1 ? log(1 ? ?) for k = M + 1 and l ? {1, . . . , M }, where F P is the target false-positive rate for the whole cascade. This policy complements the staget independent bias towards high detection rate (due to ?) with a stage dependent bias ?k,l = ? t , ?k, l ? t {1, . . . , M }. This has the following consequences. First, since ? ? 0.5 and f p  2F P when t is small, it follows that ? t  ?k,M +1 in the early stages. Hence, for these stages, there is a much larger bias against rejection of examples from the target classes {1, . . . , M }, than for the differentiation of these classes. In result, the classifier ht (x) is an all-class detector, as in Figure 1-d. Second, for large t, where f pt approaches FP, ? t decreases to zero. In this case, there is no bias against class differentiation and the learning algorithm places less emphasis on improvements of false-positive rate (?k,M +1 ? ? t ) and more emphasis on target differentiation. Like MCBoost (which has no biases), it will focus in the precise assignment of targets to their individual classes. In result, for late cascade stages, ht (x) is a multiclass classifier, similar to the class post-estimator of Figure 1t d. Third, for intermediate t, it follows from (19) and e? ? t+1 /ct+1 that the learned cascade t t+1 stages are optimal under a risk with costs Cz,j ? 1/? , for z, j ? {1, . . . , M } where ? t = ct /t . Note that ? t is a measure of how much the computational cost per example is magnified by stage t, therefore this risk favors cascades with stages of low complexity magnification. In result, weak learners are preferentially added to the stages where their addition produces the smallest overall computational increase. This makes the resulting cascades computationally efficient, since 1) stages of high complexity magnification have small per example complexity t and 2) classifiers of large per example complexity are pushed to the stages of low complexity magnification. Since complexity magnification is proportional to false-positive rate (ct /t ? f pt?1 ), multiclass decisions (higher t ) are pushed to the latter cascade stages. This push is data driven and gradual and thus the cascade gradually transitions from binary to multiclass, becoming a soft version of the detector of Figure 1-d. 4 Experiments SBBoost was evaluated on the tasks of multi-view car detection, and multiple traffic sign detection. The resulting MRes cascades were compared to the detectors of Figure 1. Since it has been established in the literature that the all-class detector with post-estimation has poor performance [5], the comparison was limited to parallel cascades [19] and parallel cascades with pre-estimation [5]. All binary cascade detectors were learned with a combination of the ECBoost algorithm of [14] and the cost-sensitive Boosting method of [18]. Following [2], all cascaded detectors used integral channel features and trees of depth two as weak learners. The training parameters were set to ? = 0.02, D = 0.95, F P = 10?6 and the training set was bootstrapped whenever the false positive rate dropped below 90%. Bootstrapping also produced an estimate of the real false positive rate f pt , t used to define the biases ?k,l . As in [5], the detector cascade with pre-class estimation used tree classifiers for pre-estimation. In the remainder of this section, detection rate is defined as the percentage of target examples, from all views or target classes, that were detected. Detector accuracy is the percentage of the target examples that were detected and assigned to the correct class. Finally, detector complexity is the average number of tree node classifiers evaluated per example. Multi-view Car Detection: To train a multi-view car detector, we collected images of 128 Frontal, 100 Rear, 103 Left, and 103 Right car views. These were resized to 41 ? 70 pixels. The multi-view car detector was evaluated on the USC car dataset [6], which consists of 197 color images of size 480 ? 640, containing 410 instances of cars in different views. 6 0.85 0.8 0.6 0.4 a) 0.9 detection rate detection rate 1 0.2 0 parallel cascade P.C. + pre?estimate MRes?Cascade 50 100 number of false positives 0.8 0.75 parallel cascade P.C. + pre?estimate MRes?Cascade 0.7 0.65 0 150 50 100 150 number of false positives b) Figure 2: ROCs for a) multi-view car detection and b) traffic sign detection. 200 220 Table 1: Multi-view car detection performance at 100 false positives. car detection traffic sign detection Method complexity accuracy det. rate complexity accuracy det. rate Parallel Cascades [19] 59.94 0.35 0.72 10.08 0.78 0.78 P.C. + Pre-estimation [5] 15.15 + 6 0.35 0.70 2.32 + 4 0.78 0.78 MRes cascade 16.40 0.58 0.88 5.56 0.84 0.84 The ROCs of the various cascades are shown in Figure 2-a. Their detection rate, accuracy and complexity are reported in Table 1. The complexity of parallel cascades with pre-processing is broken up into the complexity of the cascade plus the complexity of the pre-estimator. Figure 2a, shows that the MRes cascade has significantly better ROC performance than any of the other detectors. This is partially due to the fact that the detector is learned jointly across classes and thus has access to more training examples. In result, there is less over-fitting and better generalization. Furthermore, as shown in Table 1, the MRes cascade is much faster. The 3.5-fold reduction of complexity over the parallel cascade suggests that MRes cascades share features very efficiently across classes. The MRes cascade also detects 16% more cars and assigns 23% more cars to the true class. The parallel cascade with pre-processing was slightly less accurate than the parallel cascade but three times as fast. Its accuracy is still 23% lower than that of the MRes cascade and the complexity of the pre-estimator makes it 20% slower. Figure 3 shows the evolution of the detection rate, false positive rate, and accuracy of the MRes cascade with learning iterations. Note that the detection rate is above the specified D = 95% throughout the learning process. This is due to the updating of the ? parameter of (22). It can also be seen that, while the false positive rate decreases gradually, accuracy remains low for many iterations. This shows that the early stages of the MRes cascade place more emphasis on rejecting negative examples (lowering the false positive rate) than making precise view assignments for the car examples. This reflects the structural biases imposed by the policy of (22). Early on, confusion between classes has little cost. However, as the cascade grows and its false positive rate f pt decreases, the detector starts to distinguish different car views. This happens soon after iteration 100, where there is a significant jump in accuracy. Note, however, that the false-positive rate is still 10?4 at this point. In the remaining iterations, the learning algorithm continues to improve this rate, but also ?goes to work? on increasing accuracy. Eventually, the false-positive rate flattens and the SBBoost behaves as a multiclass boosting algorithm. Overall, the MRes cascade behaves as a soft version of the all-class detector cascade with post-estimation, shown in Figure 1-d. Traffic Sign Detection: For the detection of traffic signs, we extracted 1, 159 training examples from the first set of the Summer traffic sign dataset [7]. This produced 660 examples of ?priority road?, 145 of ?pedestrian crossing?, 232 of ?give way? and 122 of ?no stopping no standing? signs. For training, these images were resized to 40 ? 40. For testing, we used 357 images from the second set of the Summer dataset which contained at least one visible instance of the traffic signs, with more than 35 pixels of height. The performance of different traffic sign detectors is reported in Figure 2-b) and Table 1. Again, the MRes cascade was faster and more accurate than the others. In particular, it was faster than other methods, while detecting/recognizing 6% more traffic signs. We next trained a MRes cascade for detection of the 17 traffic signs shown in the left end of Figure 4. The figure also shows the evolution of MRes cascade decisions for 20 examples from each of the different classes. Each row of color pixels illustrates the evolution of one example. The color of the k th pixel in a row indicates the decision made by the cascade after k weak learners. The traffic signs and corresponding colors are shown in the left of the figure. Note that the early cascade stages only reject a few examples, assigning most of the remaining to the first class. This assures 7 10 0.99 10 1 ?1 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.8 ?2 accuracy false positive rate detection rate 0 1 10 ?3 10 0.4 ?4 10 0.94 50 100 number of iterations 150 0.6 50 100 number of iterations 150 0.2 50 100 number of iterations 150 Figure 3: MRes cascade detection rate (left), false positive rate (center), and accuracy (right) during learning. 0 20 40 60 Number of evaluated weak learners 80 Figure 4: Evolution of MRes cascade decisions for 20 randomly selected examples of 17 traffic sign classes. Each row illustrates the evolution of the label assigned to one example. The ground-truth traffic sign classes and corresponding label colors are shown on the left. a high detection rate but very low accuracy. However, as more weak learners are evaluated, the detector starts to create some intermediate categories. For example, after 20 weak learners, all traffic signs containing red and yellow colors are assigned to the ?give way? class. Evaluating more weak learners further separates these classes. Eventually, almost all examples are assigned to the correct class (right side of the picture). This shows that besides being a soft version of the all-class detector cascade, the MRes cascade automatically creates an internal class taxonomy. Finally, although we have not produced detection ground truth for this experiment, we have empirically observed that the final 17-traffic sign MRes cascade is accurate and has low complexity (5.15). This make it possible to use the detector in real-time on low complexity devices, such as smart-phones. A video illustrating the detection results is available in the supplementary material. 5 Conclusion In this work, we have made various contributions to multiclass boosting with structural constraints and cascaded detector design. First, we proposed that a multiclass detector cascade should have MRes structure, where early stages are binary target vs. non-target detectors and late stages perform fine target discrimination. Learning such cascades requires the addition of a structural bias to the learning algorithm. Second, to incorporate such biases in boosting, we analyzed the recent MCBoost algorithm, showing that it implements two complementary weighting mechanisms. The first is the standard weighting of examples by difficulty of classification. The second is a redefinition of the margin so as to weight more heavily the most difficult classes. This class reweighting was interpreted as a data driven class bias, aimed at optimizing classification performance. This suggested a natural way to add structural biases, by modifying class weights so as to favor the desired MRes structure. Third, we showed that such biases can be implemented through the addition of a set of thresholds, the bias parameters, to the definition of multiclass margin. This was, in turn, shown identical to a cost-sensitive multiclass boosting algorithm, using bias parameters as log-costs of mis-classifying examples between pairs of classes. Fourth, we introduced a stage adaptive policy for the determination of bias parameters, which was shown to enforce a bias towards cascade stages of 1) high detection rate, and 2) MRes structure. Cascades designed under this policy were shown to have stages that progress from binary to multiclass in a gradual manner that is data-driven and computationally efficient. Finally, these properties were illustrated in fast multiclass object detection experiments involving multi-view car detection and detection of multiple traffic signs. These experiments showed that MRes cascades are faster and more accurate than previous solutions. 8 References [1] L. Bourdev and J. Brandt. Robust object detection via soft cascade. In CVPR, pages 236?243, 2005. [2] P. Dollar, Z. Tu, P. Perona, and S. Belongie. Integral channel features. In BMVC, 2009. [3] J. H. Friedman. Greedy function approximation: A gradient boosting machine. Annals of Statistics, 29:1189?1232, 1999. [4] C. Huang, H. Ai, Y. Li, and S. Lao. High-performance rotation invariant multiview face detection. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 29(4):671?686, 2007. [5] M. Jones and P. Viola. Fast multi-view face detection. In Proc. of Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, 2003. [6] C. Kuo and R. Nevatia. Robust multi-view car detection using unsupervised sub-categorization. In Workshop on Applications of Computer Vision (WACV), pages 1?8, 2009. [7] F. Larsson, M. Felsberg, and P. Forssen. Correlating Fourier descriptors of local patches for road sign recognition. IET Computer Vision, 5(4):244?254, 2011. [8] H. Masnadi-Shirazi and N. Vasconcelos. Cost-sensitive boosting. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 33:294 ?309, 2011. [9] L. Mason, J. Baxter, P. Bartlett, and M. Frean. Boosting algorithms as gradient descent. In NIPS, 2000. [10] D. Mease and A. Wyner. Evidence contrary to the statistical view of boosting. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 9:131?156, June 2008. [11] X. Perrotton, M. Sturzel, and M. Roux. Implicit hierarchical boosting for multi-view object detection. In IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), pages 958?965, 2010. [12] M. Pham, H. V-D.D., and T. Cham. Detection with multi-exit asymmetric boosting. In CVPR, pages 1 ?8, 2008. [13] M. Saberian and N. Vasconcelos. Multiclass boosting: Theory and algorithms. In NIPS, 2011. [14] M. Saberian and N. Vasconcelos. Learning optimal embedded cascades. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, pages 32005 ?2018, 2012. [15] J. sochman J. Matas. Waldboost - learning for time constrained sequential detection. In CVPR, pages 150?157, 2005. [16] A. Torralba, K. Murphy, and W. Freeman. Sharing visual features for multiclass and multiview object detection. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 29(5):854?869, 2007. [17] P. Viola and M. Jones. Robust real-time object detection. Workshop on Statistical and Computational Theories of Vision, 2001. [18] P. Viola and M. Jones. Fast and robust classification using asymmetric adaboost and a detector cascade. In NIPS, pages 1311?1318, 2002. [19] B. Wu, H. Ai, C. Huang, and S. Lao. Fast rotation invariant multi-view face detection based on real adaboost. In IEEE International Conference on Automatic Face and Gesture Recognition, pages 79?84, 2004. [20] Q. Zhu, S. Avidan, M. Yeh, , and K. Cheng. Fast human detection using a cascade of histograms of oriented gradients. In CVPR, pages 1491?1498, 2006. 9
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Multi-Class Deep Boosting Vitaly Kuznetsov Courant Institute 251 Mercer Street New York, NY 10012 Mehryar Mohri Courant Institute & Google Research 251 Mercer Street New York, NY 10012 Umar Syed Google Research 76 Ninth Avenue New York, NY 10011 vitaly@cims.nyu.edu mohri@cims.nyu.edu usyed@google.com Abstract We present new ensemble learning algorithms for multi-class classification. Our algorithms can use as a base classifier set a family of deep decision trees or other rich or complex families and yet benefit from strong generalization guarantees. We give new data-dependent learning bounds for convex ensembles in the multiclass classification setting expressed in terms of the Rademacher complexities of the sub-families composing the base classifier set, and the mixture weight assigned to each sub-family. These bounds are finer than existing ones both thanks to an improved dependency on the number of classes and, more crucially, by virtue of a more favorable complexity term expressed as an average of the Rademacher complexities based on the ensemble?s mixture weights. We introduce and discuss several new multi-class ensemble algorithms benefiting from these guarantees, prove positive results for the H-consistency of several of them, and report the results of experiments showing that their performance compares favorably with that of multi-class versions of AdaBoost and Logistic Regression and their L1 regularized counterparts. 1 Introduction Devising ensembles of base predictors is a standard approach in machine learning which often helps improve performance in practice. Ensemble methods include the family of boosting meta-algorithms among which the most notable and widely used one is AdaBoost [Freund and Schapire, 1997], also known as forward stagewise additive modeling [Friedman et al., 1998]. AdaBoost and its other variants learn convex combinations of predictors. They seek to greedily minimize a convex surrogate function upper bounding the misclassification loss by augmenting, at each iteration, the current ensemble, with a new suitably weighted predictor. One key advantage of AdaBoost is that, since it is based on a stagewise procedure, it can learn an effective ensemble of base predictors chosen from a very large and potentially infinite family, provided that an efficient algorithm is available for selecting a good predictor at each stage. Furthermore, AdaBoost and its L1 -regularized counterpart [R?atsch et al., 2001a] benefit from favorable learning guarantees, in particular theoretical margin bounds [Schapire et al., 1997, Koltchinskii and Panchenko, 2002]. However, those bounds depend not just on the margin and the sample size, but also on the complexity of the base hypothesis set, which suggests a risk of overfitting when using too complex base hypothesis sets. And indeed, overfitting has been reported in practice for AdaBoost in the past [Grove and Schuurmans, 1998, Schapire, 1999, Dietterich, 2000, R?atsch et al., 2001b]. Cortes, Mohri, and Syed [2014] introduced a new ensemble algorithm, DeepBoost, which they proved to benefit from finer learning guarantees, including favorable ones even when using as base classifier set relatively rich families, for example a family of very deep decision trees, or other similarly complex families. In DeepBoost, the decisions in each iteration of which classifier to add to the ensemble and which weight to assign to that classifier, depend on the (data-dependent) complexity 1 of the sub-family to which the classifier belongs ? one interpretation of DeepBoost is that it applies the principle of structural risk minimization to each iteration of boosting. Cortes, Mohri, and Syed [2014] further showed that empirically DeepBoost achieves a better performance than AdaBoost, Logistic Regression, and their L1 -regularized variants. The main contribution of this paper is an extension of these theoretical, algorithmic, and empirical results to the multi-class setting. Two distinct approaches have been considered in the past for the definition and the design of boosting algorithms in the multi-class setting. One approach consists of combining base classifiers mapping each example x to an output label y. This includes the SAMME algorithm [Zhu et al., 2009] as well as the algorithm of Mukherjee and Schapire [2013], which is shown to be, in a certain sense, optimal for this approach. An alternative approach, often more flexible and more widely used in applications, consists of combining base classifiers mapping each pair (x, y) formed by an example x and a label y to a real-valued score. This is the approach adopted in this paper, which is also the one used for the design of AdaBoost.MR [Schapire and Singer, 1999] and other variants of that algorithm. In Section 2, we prove a novel generalization bound for multi-class classification ensembles that depends only on the Rademacher complexity of the hypothesis classes to which the classifiers in the ensemble belong. Our result generalizes the main result of Cortes et al. [2014] to the multi-class setting, and also represents an improvement on the multi-class generalization bound due to Koltchinskii and Panchenko [2002], even if we disregard our finer analysis related to Rademacher complexity. In Section 3, we present several multi-class surrogate losses that are motivated by our generalization bound, and discuss and compare their functional and consistency properties. In particular, we prove that our surrogate losses are realizable H-consistent, a hypothesis-set-specific notion of consistency that was recently introduced by Long and Servedio [2013]. Our results generalize those of Long and Servedio [2013] and admit simpler proofs. We also present a family of multi-class DeepBoost learning algorithms based on each of these surrogate losses, and prove general convergence guarantee for them. In Section 4, we report the results of experiments demonstrating that multi-class DeepBoost outperforms AdaBoost.MR and multinomial (additive) logistic regression, as well as their L1 -norm regularized variants, on several datasets. 2 Multi-class data-dependent learning guarantee for convex ensembles In this section, we present a data-dependent learning bound in the multi-class setting for convex ensembles based on multiple base hypothesis sets. Let X denote the input space. We denote by Y = {1, . . . , c} a set of c ? 2 classes. The label associated by a hypothesis f : X ? Y ? R to x ? X is given by argmaxy?Y f (x, y). The margin ?f (x, y) of the function f for a labeled example (x, y) ? X ? Y is defined by ?f (x, y) = f (x, y) ? max f (x, y 0 ). 0 (1) y 6=y Thus, f misclassifies (x, y) iff ?f (x, y) ? 0. We consider p families Sp H1 , . . . , Hp of functions mapping from X ? Y to [0, 1] and the ensemble family F = conv( k=1 Hk ), that is the family of PT functions f of the form f = t=1 ?t ht , where ? = (?1 , . . . , ?T ) is in the simplex ? and where, for each t ? [1, T ], ht is in Hkt for some kt ? [1, p]. We assume that training and test points are drawn i.i.d. according to some distribution D over X ? Y and denote by S = ((x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xm , ym )) a training sample of size m drawn according to Dm . For any ? > 0, the generalization error R(f ), its ?-margin error R? (f ) and its empirical margin error are defined as follows: R(f ) = E (x,y)?D [1?f (x,y)?0 ], R? (f ) = E (x,y)?D bS,? (f ) = [1?f (x,y)?? ], and R E (x,y)?S [1?f (x,y)?? ], (2) where the notation (x, y) ? S indicates that (x, y) is drawn according to the empirical distribution defined by S. For any family of hypotheses G mapping X ? Y to R, we define ?1 (G) by ?1 (G) = {x 7? h(x, y) : y ? Y, h ? G}. (3) The following theorem gives a margin-based Rademacher complexity bound for learning with ensembles of base classifiers with multiple hypothesis sets. As with other Rademacher complexity learning guarantees, our bound is data-dependent, which is an important and favorable characteristic of our results. 2 Theorem 1. Assume p > 1 and let H1 , . . . , Hp be p families of functions mapping from X ? Y to [0, 1]. Fix ? > 0. Then, for any ? > 0, with probability at least 1 ? ? over the choice of a sample S PT of size m drawn i.i.d. according to D, the following inequality holds for all f = t=1 ?t ht ? F: T X 2 bS,? (f )+ 8c R(f ) ? R ?t Rm (?1 (Hkt ))+ ? t=1 c? bS,? (f ) + Thus, R(f ) ? R 8c ? PT t=1 r s log p + m r ?t Rm (Hkt ) + O l 4 ?2 log c2 ?2 m 4 log p m log p log 2? + , m 2m h 2 2 i log p c m log ?4 log . p ?2 m The full proof of theorem 3 is given in Appendix B. Even for p = 1, that is for the special case of a single hypothesis set, our analysis improves upon the multi-class margin bound of Koltchinskii and Panchenko [2002] since our bound admits only a linear dependency on the number of classes c instead of a quadratic one. However, the main remarkable benefit of this learning bound is that its complexity term admits an explicit dependency on the mixture coefficients ?t . It is a weighted average of Rademacher complexities with mixture weights ?t , t ? [1, T ]. Thus, the second term of the bound suggests that, while some hypothesis sets Hk used for learning could have a large Rademacher complexity, this may not negatively affect generalization if the corresponding total mixture weight (sum of ?t s corresponding to that hypothesis set) is relatively small. Using such potentially complex families could help achieve a better margin on the training sample. The theorem cannot be proven via the standard Rademacher complexity analysis of Koltchinskii and Sp Panchenko [2002] since the complexity term of the bound would then be R (conv( H )) = m k k=1 Sp Rm ( k=1 Hk ) which does not admit an explicit dependency on the mixture weights and is lower PT bounded by t=1 ?t Rm (Hkt ). Thus, the theorem provides a finer learning bound than the one obtained via a standard Rademacher complexity analysis. 3 Algorithms In this section, we will use the learning guarantees just described to derive several new ensemble algorithms for multi-class classification. 3.1 Optimization problem Let H1 , . . . , Hp be p disjoint families of functions taking values in [0, 1] with increasing Rademacher complexities Rm (Hk ), k ? [1, p]. For any hypothesis h ? ?pk=1 Hk , we denote by d(h) the index of the hypothesis set it belongs to, that is h ? Hd(h) . The bound of Theorem 3 holds uniformly for Sp all ? > 0 and functions f ? conv( k=1 Hk ). Since the last term of the bound does not depend on ?, it suggests selecting ? that would minimize: m G(?) = T 1 X 8c X 1?f (xi ,yi )?? + ?t rt , m i=1 ? t=1 where rt = Rm (Hd(ht ) ) and ? ? ?.1 Since for any ? > 0, f and f /? admit the same generalization PT error, we can instead search for ? ? 0 with t=1 ?t ? 1/?, which leads to min ??0 m T X 1 X 1?f (xi ,yi )?1 + 8c ?t rt m i=1 t=1 s.t. T X t=1 ?t ? 1 . ? (4) The first term of the objective is not a convex function of ? and its minimization is known to be computationally hard. Thus, we will consider instead a convex upper bound. Let u 7? ?(?u) be a non-increasing convex function upper-bounding u 7? 1u?0 over R. ? may be selected to be P P The condition Tt=1 ?t = 1 of Theorem 3 can be relaxed to Tt=1 ?t ? 1. To see this, use for example a null hypothesis (ht = 0 for some t). 1 3 for example the exponential function as in AdaBoost [Freund and Schapire, 1997] or the logistic function. Using such an upper bound, we obtain the following convex optimization problem: min ??0 m T  X 1 X  ? 1 ? ?f (xi , yi ) + ? ?t rt m i=1 t=1 s.t. T X ?t ? t=1 1 , ? (5) where we introduced a parameter ? ? 0 controlling the balance between the magnitude of the values taken by function ? and the second term.2 Introducing a Lagrange variable ? ? 0 associated to the constraint in (5), the problem can be equivalently written as min ??0 m T T hX i X 1 X  ? 1 ? min ?t ht (xi , yi ) ? ?t ht (xi , y) + (?rt + ?)?t . y6=yi m i=1 t=1 t=1 Here, ? is a parameter that can be freely selected by the algorithm since any choice of its value is equivalent to a choice of ? in (5). Since ? is a non-decreasing function, the problem can be equivalently written as min ??0 m T T  hX i X 1 X max ? 1 ? ?t ht (xi , yi ) ? ?t ht (xi , y) + (?rt + ?)?t . m i=1 y6=yi t=1 t=1 Let {h1 , . . . , hN } be the set of distinct base functions, and let Fmax be the objective function based on that expression: Fmax (?) = m N N   X X 1 X max ? 1 ? ?j hj (xi , yi , y) + ?j ?j , m i=1 y6=yi j=1 j=1 (6) with ? = (?1 , . . . , ?N ) ? RN , hj (xi , yi , y) = hj (xi , yi ) ? hj (xi , y), and ?j = ?rj + ? for all j ? [1, N ]. Then, our optimization problem can be rewritten as min??0 Fmax (?). This defines a convex optimization problem since the domain {? ? 0} is a convex set and since Fmax is convex: each term of the sum in its definition is convex as a pointwise maximum of convex functions (composition of the convex function ? with an affine function) and the second term is a linear function of ?. In general, Fmax is not differentiable even when ? is, but, since it is convex, it admits a sub-differential at every point. Additionally, along each direction, Fmax admits left and right derivatives both nonincreasing and a differential everywhere except for a set that is at most countable. 3.2 Alternative objective functions We now consider the following three natural upper bounds on Fmax which admit useful properties that we will discuss later, the third one valid when ? can be written as the composition of two function ?1 and ?2 with ?1 a non-increasing function: Fsum (?) = N m N  X X 1 XX  ?j ?j ? 1? ?j hj (xi , yi , y) + m i=1 j=1 j=1 (7) N m N  X X 1 X  ?j ?j ? 1? ?j ?hj (xi , yi ) + m i=1 j=1 j=1 (8) m N N  X X 1 X X  ?1 ?2 1 ? ?j hj (xi , yi , y) + ?j ?j . m i=1 j=1 j=1 (9) y6=yi Fmaxsum (?) = Fcompsum (?) = y6=yi Fsum is obtained from Fmax simply by replacing in the definition of Fmax the max operator by a sum. Clearly, function Fsum is convex and inherits the differentiability properties of ?. A drawback of Fsum is that for problems with very large c as in structured prediction, the computation of the sum 2 Note that this is a standard practice in the field of optimization. The optimization problem in (4) is equivaP PT lent to a vector optimization problem, where ( m i=1 1?f (xi ,yi )?1 , t=1 ?t rt ) is minimized over ?. The latter problem can be scalarized leading to the introduction of a parameter ? in (5). 4 may require resorting to approximations. Fmaxsum is obtained from Fmax by noticing that, by the sub-additivity of the max operator, the following inequality holds: max y6=yi N X ??j hj (xi , yi , y) ? j=1 N X j=1 max ??j hj (xi , yi , y) = y6=yi N X ?j ?hj (xi , yi ). j=1 As with Fsum , function Fmaxsum is convex and admits the same differentiability properties as ?. Unlike Fsum , Fmaxsum does not require computing a sum over the classes. Furthermore, note that the expressions ?hj (xi , yi ), i ? [1, m], can be pre-computed prior to the application of any optimization algorithm. Finally, for ? = ?1 ? ?2 with ?1 non-increasing, the max operator can be replaced by a sum before applying ?1 , as follows:    X   ?2 1 ? f(xi , yi , y) , max ? 1 ? f(xi , yi , y) = ?1 max ?2 1 ? f(xi , yi , y) ? ?1 y6=yi where f(xi , yi , y) = y6=yi PN j=1 y6=yi ?j hj (xi , yi , y). This leads to the definition of Fcompsum . In Appendix C, we discuss the consistency properties of the loss functions just introduced. In particular, we prove that the loss functions associated to Fmax and Fsum are realizable H-consistent (see Long and Servedio [2013]) in the common cases where the exponential or logistic losses are used and that, similarly, in the common case where ?1 (u) = log(1 + u) and ?2 (u) = exp(u + 1), the loss function associated to Fcompsum is H-consistent. Furthermore, in Appendix D, we show that, under some mild assumptions, the objective functions we just discussed are essentially within a constant factor of each other. Moreover, in the case of binary classification all of these objectives coincide. 3.3 Multi-class DeepBoost algorithms In this section, we discuss in detail a family of multi-class DeepBoost algorithms, which are derived by application of coordinate descent to the objective functions discussed in the previous paragraphs. We will assume that ? is differentiable over R and that ?0 (u) 6= 0 for all u. This condition is not necessary, in particular, our presentation can be extended to non-differentiable functions such as the hinge loss, but it simplifies the presentation. In the case of the objective function Fmaxsum , we will assume that both ?1 and ?2 , where ? = ?1 ? ?2 , are differentiable. Under these assumptions, Fsum , Fmaxsum , and Fcompsum are differentiable. Fmax is not differentiable due to the presence of the max operators in its definition, but it admits a sub-differential at every point. For convenience, let ?t = (?t,1 , . . . , ?t,N )> denote the vector obtained after t ? 1 iterations and let ?0 = 0. Let ek denote the kth unit vector in RN , k ? [1, N ]. For a differentiable objective F , we denote by F 0 (?, ej ) the directional derivative of F along the direction ej at ?. Our coordinate descent algorithm consists of first determining the direction of maximal descent, that is k = argmaxj?[1,N ] |F 0 (?t?1 , ej )|, next of determining the best step ? along that direction that preserves non-negativity of ?, ? = argmin?t?1 +?ek ?0 F (?t?1 + ?ek ), and updating ?t?1 to ?t = ?t?1 + ?ek . We will refer to this method as projected coordinate descent. The following theorem provides a convergence guarantee for our algorithms in that case. Theorem 2. Assume that ? is twice differentiable and that ?00 (u) > 0 for all u ? R. Then, the projected coordinate descent algorithm applied to F converges to the solution ?? of the optimization max??0 F (?) for F = Fsum , F = Fmaxsum , or F = Fcompsum . If additionally ? is strongly convex over the path of the iterates ?t , then there exists ? > 0 and ? > 0 such that for all t > ? , F (?t+1 ) ? F (?? ) ? (1 ? ?1 )(F (?t ) ? F (?? )). (10) The proof is given in Appendix I and is based on the results of Luo and Tseng [1992]. The theorem can in fact be extended to the case where instead of the best direction, the derivative for the direction selected at each round is within a constant threshold of the best [Luo and Tseng, 1992]. The conditions of Theorem 2 hold for many cases in practice, in particular in the case of the exponential loss (? = exp) or the logistic loss (?(?x) = log2 (1 + e?x )). In particular, linear convergence is guaranteed in those cases since both the exponential and logistic losses are strongly convex over a compact set containing the converging sequence of ?t s. 5 MD EEP B OOST S UM(S = ((x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xm , ym ))) 1 for i ? 1 to m do 2 for y ? Y ? {yi } do 1 3 D1 (i, y) ? m(c?1) 4 for t ? 1 to T do ?j m 5 k ? argmin t,j + 2St j?[1,N ]  6 if (1 ? t,k )e?t?1,k ? t,k e??t?1,k < ?Sktm then 7 ?t ? ??t?1,k q h i  ?k m 2 ?k m 1?t 8 else ?t ? log ? 2 + + S 2 S  t t t t t 9 ?t ? ?t?1 + ?t ek  Pm P P N 10 St+1 ? i=1 y6=yi ?0 1 ? j=1 ?t,j hj (xi , yi , y) 11 for i ? 1 to m do 12 for y ? Y ? {yi } do  P ?0 1? N j=1 ?t,j hj (xi ,yi ,y) 13 Dt+1 (i, y) ? St+1 PN 14 f ? j=1 ?t,j hj 15 return f Figure 1: Pseudocode of the MDeepBoostSum algorithm for both the exponential loss and the logistic loss. The expression of the weighted error t,j is given in (12). We will refer to the algorithm defined by projected coordinate descent applied to Fsum by MDeepBoostSum, to Fmaxsum by MDeepBoostMaxSum, to Fcompsum by MDeepBoostCompSum, and to Fmax by MDeepBoostMax. In the following, we briefly describe MDeepBoostSum, including its pseudocode. We give a detailed description of all of these algorithms in the supplementary material: MDeepBoostSum (Appendix E), MDeepBoostMaxSum (Appendix F), MDeepBoostCompSum (Appendix G), MDeepBoostMax (Appendix H). PN Define ft?1 = j=1 ?t?1,j hj . Then, Fsum (?t?1 ) can be rewritten as follows: Fsum (?t?1 ) = m N  X 1 XX  ? 1 ? ft?1 (xi , yi , y) + ?j ?t?1,j . m i=1 j=1 y6=yi For any t ? [1, T ], we denote by Dt the distribution over [1, m] ? [1, c] defined for all i ? [1, m] and y ? Y ? {yi } by  ?0 1 ? ft?1 (xi , yi , y) , (11) Dt (i, y) = St Pm P where St is a normalization factor, St = i=1 y6=yi ?0 (1 ? ft?1 (xi , yi , y)). For any j ? [1, N ] and s ? [1, T ], we also define the weighted error s,j as follows: s,j =  i 1h 1? E hj (xi , yi , y) . 2 (i,y)?Ds (12) Figure 1 gives the pseudocode of the MDeepBoostSum algorithm. The details of the derivation of the expressions are given in Appendix E. In the special cases of the exponential loss (?(?u) = exp(?u)) or the logistic loss (?(?u) = log2 (1 + exp(?u))), a closed-form expression is given for the step size (lines 6-8), which is the same in both cases (see Sections E.2.1 and E.2.2). In the generic case, the step size can be found using a line search or other numerical methods. The algorithms presented above have several connections with other boosting algorithms, particularly in the absence of regularization. We discuss these connections in detail in Appendix K. 6 4 Experiments The algorithms presented in the previous sections can be used with a variety of different base classifier sets. For our experiments, we used multi-class binary decision trees. A multi-class binary decision tree in dimension d can be defined by a pair (t, h), where t is a binary tree with a variablethreshold question at each internal node, e.g., Xj ? ?, j ? [1, d], and h = (hl )l?Leaves(t) a vector of distributions over the leaves Leaves(t) of t. At any leaf l ? Leaves(t), hl (y) ? [0, 1] for all y ? Y P and y?Y hl (y) = 1. For convenience, we will denote by t(x) the leaf l ? Leaves(t) associated to x by t. Thus, the score associated by (t, h) to a pair (x, y) ? X ? Y is hl (y) where l = t(x). Let Tn denote the family of all multi-class decision trees with n internal nodes in dimension d. In Appendix J, we derive the following upper bound on the Rademacher complexity of Tn : r (4n + 2) log2 (d + 2) log(m + 1) . (13) R(?1 (Tn )) ? m All of the experiments in this section use Tn as the family of base hypothesis sets (parametrized by n). Since Tn is a very large hypothesis set when n is large, for the sake of computational efficiency we make a few approximations. First, although our MDeepBoost algorithms were derived in terms of Rademacher complexity, we use the upper bound in Eq. (13) in place of the Rademacher complexity (thus, in Algorithm 1 we let ?n = ?Bn + ?, where Bn is the bound given in Eq. (13)). Secondly, instead of exhaustively searching for the best decision tree in Tn for each possible size n, we use the following greedy procedure: Given the best decision tree of size n (starting with n = 1), we find the best decision tree of size n + 1 that can be obtained by splitting one leaf, and continue this procedure until some maximum depth K. Decision trees are commonly learned in this manner, and so in this context our Rademacher-complexity-based bounds can be viewed as a novel stopping criterion for ? be the set of trees found by the greedy algorithm just described. decision tree learning. Let HK ? ? {h1 , . . . , ht?1 }, where In each iteration t of MDeepBoost, we select the best tree in the set HK h1 , . . . , ht?1 are the trees selected in previous iterations. While we described many objective functions that can be used as the basis of a multi-class deep boosting algorithm, the experiments in this section focus on algorithms derived from Fsum . We also refer the reader to Table 3 in Appendix A for results of experiments with Fcompsum objective functions. The Fsum and Fcompsum objectives combine several advantages that suggest they will perform well empirically. Fsum is consistent and both Fsum and Fcompsum are (by Theorem 4) H-consistent. Also, unlike Fmax both of these objectives are differentiable, and therefore the convergence guarantee in Theorem 2 applies. Our preliminary findings also indicate that algorithms based on Fsum and Fcompsum objectives perform better than those derived from Fmax and Fmaxsum . All of our objective functions require a choice for ?, the loss function. Since Cortes et al. [2014] reported comparable results for exponential and logistic loss for the binary version of DeepBoost, we let ? be the exponential loss in all of our experiments with MDeepBoostSum. For MDeepBoostCompSum we select ?1 (u) = log2 (1 + u) and ?2 (?u) = exp(?u). In our experiments, we used 8 UCI data sets: abalone, handwritten, letters, pageblocks, pendigits, satimage, statlog and yeast ? see more details on these datasets in Table 4, Appendix L. In Appendix K, we explain that when ? = ? = 0 then MDeepBoostSum is equivalent to AdaBoost.MR. Also, if we set ? = 0 and ? 6= 0 then the resulting algorithm is an L1 -norm regularized variant of AdaBoost.MR. We compared MDeepBoostSum to these two algorithms, with the results also reported in Table 1 and Table 2 in Appendix A. Likewise, we compared MDeepBoostCompSum with multinomial (additive) logistic regression, LogReg, and its L1 -regularized version LogReg-L1, which, as discussed in Appendix K, are equivalent to MDeepBoostCompSum when ? = ? = 0 and ? = 0, ? ? 0 respectively. Finally, we remark that it can be argued that the parameter optimization procedure (described below) significantly extends AdaBoost.MR since it effectively implements structural risk minimization: for each tree depth, the empirical error is minimized and we choose the depth to achieve the best generalization error. All of these algorithms use maximum tree depth K as a parameter. L1 -norm regularized versions admit two parameters: K and ? ? 0. Deep boosting algorithms have a third parameter, ? ? 0. To set these parameters, we used the following parameter optimization procedure: we randomly partitioned each dataset into 4 folds and, for each tuple (?, ?, K) in the set of possible parameters (described below), we ran MDeepBoostSum, with a different assignment of folds to the training 7 Table 1: Empirical results for MDeepBoostSum, ? = exp. AB stands for AdaBoost. abalone Error (std dev) AB.MR 0.739 (0.0016) AB.MR-L1 0.737 (0.0065) MDeepBoost 0.735 (0.0045) handwritten Error (std dev) AB.MR 0.024 (0.0011) AB.MR-L1 0.025 (0.0018) MDeepBoost 0.021 (0.0015) letters Error (std dev) AB.MR 0.065 (0.0018) AB.MR-L1 0.059 (0.0059) MDeepBoost 0.058 (0.0039) pageblocks Error (std dev) AB.MR 0.035 (0.0045) AB.MR-L1 0.035 (0.0031) MDeepBoost 0.033 (0.0014) pendigits Error (std dev) AB.MR 0.014 (0.0025) AB.MR-L1 0.014 (0.0013) MDeepBoost 0.012 (0.0011) satimage Error (std dev) AB.MR 0.112 (0.0123) AB.MR-L1 0.117 (0.0096) MDeepBoost 0.117 (0.0087) statlog Error (std dev) AB.MR 0.029 (0.0026) AB.MR-L1 0.026 (0.0071) MDeepBoost 0.024 (0.0008) yeast Error (std dev) AB.MR 0.415 (0.0353) AB.MR-L1 0.410 (0.0324) MDeepBoost 0.407 (0.0282) set, validation set and test set for each run. Specifically, for each run i ? {0, 1, 2, 3}, fold i was used for testing, fold i + 1 (mod 4) was used for validation, and the remaining folds were used for training. For each run, we selected the parameters that had the lowest error on the validation set and then measured the error of those parameters on the test set. The average test error and the standard deviation of the test error over all 4 runs is reported in Table 1. Note that an alternative procedure to compare algorithms that is adopted in a number of previous studies of boosting [Li, 2009a,b, Sun et al., 2012] is to simply record the average test error of the best parameter tuples over all runs. While it is of course possible to overestimate the performance of a learning algorithm by optimizing hyperparameters on the test set, this concern is less valid when the size of the test set is large relative to the ?complexity? of the hyperparameter space. We report results for this alternative procedure in Table 2 and Table 3, Appendix A. For each dataset, the set of possible values for ? and ? was initialized to {10?5 , 10?6 , . . . , 10?10 }, and to {1, 2, 3, 4, 5} for the maximum tree depth K. However, if we found an optimal parameter value to be at the end point of these ranges, we extended the interval in that direction (by an order of magnitude for ? and ?, and by 1 for the maximum tree depth K) and re-ran the experiments. We have also experimented with 200 and 500 iterations but we have observed that the errors do not change significantly and the ranking of the algorithms remains the same. The results of our experiments show that, for each dataset, deep boosting algorithms outperform the other algorithms evaluated in our experiments. Let us point out that, even though not all of our results are statistically significant, MDeepBoostSum outperforms AdaBoost.MR and AdaBoost.MRL1 (and, hence, effectively structural risk minimization) on each dataset. More importantly, for each dataset MDeepBoostSum outperforms other algorithms on most of the individual runs. Moreover, results for some datasets presented here (namely pendigits) appear to be state-of-the-art. We also refer our reader to experimental results summarized in Table 2 and Table 3 in Appendix A. These results provide further evidence in favor of DeepBoost algorithms. The consistent performance improvement by MDeepBoostSum over AdaBoost.MR or its L1-norm regularized variant shows the benefit of the new complexity-based regularization we introduced. 5 Conclusion We presented new data-dependent learning guarantees for convex ensembles in the multi-class setting where the base classifier set is composed of increasingly complex sub-families, including very deep or complex ones. These learning bounds generalize to the multi-class setting the guarantees presented by Cortes et al. [2014] in the binary case. We also introduced and discussed several new multi-class ensemble algorithms benefiting from these guarantees and proved positive results for the H-consistency and convergence of several of them. Finally, we reported the results of several experiments with DeepBoost algorithms, and compared their performance with that of AdaBoost.MR and additive multinomial Logistic Regression and their L1 -regularized variants. 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Robust Logistic Regression and Classification Huan Xu ME Department National University of Singapore mpexuh@nus.edu.sg Jiashi Feng EECS Department & ICSI UC Berkeley jshfeng@berkeley.edu Shuicheng Yan ECE Department National University of Singapore eleyans@nus.edu.sg Shie Mannor EE Department Technion shie@ee.technion.ac.il Abstract We consider logistic regression with arbitrary outliers in the covariate matrix. We propose a new robust logistic regression algorithm, called RoLR, that estimates the parameter through a simple linear programming procedure. We prove that RoLR is robust to a constant fraction of adversarial outliers. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first result on estimating logistic regression model when the covariate matrix is corrupted with any performance guarantees. Besides regression, we apply RoLR to solving binary classification problems where a fraction of training samples are corrupted. 1 Introduction Logistic regression (LR) is a standard probabilistic statistical classification model that has been extensively used across disciplines such as computer vision, marketing, social sciences, to name a few. Different from linear regression, the outcome of LR on one sample is the probability that it is positive or negative, where the probability depends on a linear measure of the sample. Therefore, LR is actually widely used for classification. More formally, for a sample xi ? Rp whose label is 1 denoted as yi , the probability of yi being positive is predicted to be P{yi = +1} = , given > 1+e?? xi the LR model parameter ?. In order to obtain a parameter that performs well, often a set of labeled samples {(x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xn , yn )} are collected to learn the LR parameter ? which maximizes the induced likelihood function over the training samples. However, in practice, the training samples x1 , . . . , xn are usually noisy and some of them may even contain adversarial corruptions. Here by ?adversarial?, we mean that the corruptions can be arbitrary, unbounded and are not from any specific distribution. For example, in the image/video classification task, some images or videos may be corrupted unexpectedly due to the error of sensors or the severe occlusions on the contained objects. Those corrupted samples, which are called outliers, can skew the parameter estimation severely and hence destroy the performance of LR. To see the sensitiveness of LR to outliers more intuitively, consider a simple example where all the samples xi ?s are from one-dimensional space R, as shown in Figure 1. Only using the inlier samples provides a correct LR parameter (we here show the induced function curve) which explains the inliers well. However, when only one sample is corrupted (which is originally negative but now closer to the positive samples), the resulted regression curve is distracted far away from the ground truth one and the label predictions on the concerned inliers are completely wrong. This demonstrates that LR is indeed fragile to sample corruptions. More rigorously, the non-robustness of LR can be shown via calculating its influence function [7] (detailed in the supplementary material). 1 1 inlier outlier 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 ?5 ?4 ?3 ?2 ?1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Figure 1: The estimated logistic regression curve (red solid) is far away from the correct one (blue dashed) due to the existence of just one outlier (red circle). As Figure 1 demonstrates, the maximal-likelihood estimate of LR is extremely sensitive to the presence of anomalous data in the sample. Pregibon also observed this non-robustness of LR in [14]. To solve this important issue of LR, Pregibon [14], Cook and Weisberg [4] and Johnson [9] proposed procedures to identify observations which are influential for estimating ? based on certain outlyingness measure. Stefanski et al. [16, 10] and Bianco et al. [2] also proposed robust estimators which, however, require to robustly estimating the covariate matrix or boundedness on the outliers. Moreover, the breakdown point1 of those methods is generally inversely proportional to the sample dimensionality and diminishes rapidly for high-dimensional samples. We propose a new robust logistic regression algorithm, called RoLR, which optimizes a robustified linear correlation between response y and linear measure h?, xi via an efficient linear programmingbased procedure. We demonstrate that the proposed RoLR achieves robustness to arbitrarily covariate corruptions. Even when a constant fraction of the training samples are corrupted, RoLR is still able to learn the LR parameter with a non-trivial upper bound on the error. Besides this theoretical guarantee of RoLR on the parameter estimation, we also provide the empirical and population risks bounds for RoLR. Moreover, RoLR only needs to solve a linear programming problem and thus is scalable to large-scale data sets, in sharp contrast to previous LR optimization algorithms which typically resort to (computationally expensive) iterative reweighted method [11]. The proposed RoLR can be easily adapted to solving binary classification problems where corrupted training samples are present. We also provide theoretical classification performance guarantee for RoLR. Due to the space limitation, we defer all the proofs to the supplementary material. 2 Related Works Several previous works have investigated multiple approaches to robustify the logistic regression (LR) [15, 13, 17, 16, 10]. The majority of them are M-estimator based: minimizing a complicated and more robust loss function than the standard loss function (negative log-likelihood) of LR. For example, Pregiobon [15] proposed the following M-estimator: ?? = arg min ? n X ?(`i (?)), i=1 where `i (?) is the negative log-likelihood of the ith sample xi and ?(?) is a Huber type function [8] such as  t, if t ? c, ? ?(t) = 2 tc ? c, if t > c, with c a positive parameter. However, the result from such estimator is not robust to outliers with high leverage covariates as shown in [5]. 1 It is defined as the percentage of corrupted points that can make the output of an algorithm arbitrarily bad. 2 Recently, Ding et al [6] introduced the T -logistic regression as a robust alternative to the standard LR, which replaces the exponential distribution in LR by t-exponential distribution family. However, T -logistic regression only guarantees that the output parameter converges to a local optimum of the loss function instead of converging to the ground truth parameter. Our work is largely inspired by following two recent works [3, 13] on robust sparse regression. In [3], Chen et al. proposed to replace the standard vector inner product by a trimmed one, and obtained a novel linear regression algorithm which is robust to unbounded covariate corruptions. In this work, we also utilize this simple yet powerful operation to achieve robustness. In [13], a convex programming method for estimating the sparse parameters of logistic regression model is proposed: max ? m X yi hxi , ?i, s.t. k?k1 ? ? s, k?k ? 1, i=1 where s is the sparseness prior parameter on ?. However, this method is not robust to corrupted covariate matrix. Few or even one corrupted sample may dominate the correlation in the objective function and yield arbitrarily bad estimations. In this work, we propose a robust algorithm to remedy this issue. 3 Robust Logistic Regression 3.1 Problem Setup We consider the problem of logistic regression (LR). Let S p?1 denote the unit sphere and B2p denote the Euclidean unit ball in Rp . Let ? ? be the groundtruth parameter of the LR model. We assume 1 the training samples are covariate-response pairs {(xi , yi )}n+n ? Rp ? {?1, +1}, which, if not i=1 corrupted, would obey the following LR model: P{yi = +1} = ? (h? ? , xi i + vi ), 1 1+e?z . (1) N (0, ?e2 ) where the function ? (?) is defined as: ? (z) = is an i.i.d. The additive noise vi ? Gaussian random variable with zero mean and variance of ?e2 . In particular, when we consider the noiseless case, we assume ?e2 = 0. Since LR only depends on h? ? , xi i, we can always scale the samples xi to make the magnitude of ? ? less than 1. Thus, without loss of generality, we assume that ? ? ? S p?1 . Out of the n + n1 samples, a constant number (n1 ) of the samples may be adversarially corrupted, and we make no assumptions on these outliers. Throughout the paper, we use ? , nn1 to denote the outlier fraction. We call the remaining n non-corrupted samples ?authentic? samples, which obey the following standard sub-Gaussian design [12, 3]. Definition 1 (Sub-Gaussian design). We say that a random matrix X = [x1 , . . . , xn ] ? Rp?n is sub-Gaussian with parameter ( n1 ?x , n1 ?x2 ) if: (1) each column xi ? Rp is sampled independently from a zero-mean distribution with covariance n1 ?x , and (2) for any unit vector u ? Rp , the random variable u> xi is sub-Gaussian with parameter2 ?1n ?x . The above sub-Gaussian random variables have several nice concentration properties, one of which is stated in the following Lemma [12]. Lemma 1 (Sub-Gaussian Concentration [12]).?Let X1 , . . . , Xn be n i.i.d. zero-mean sub2 Gaussian random variables q with parameter ?x / n and variance at most ?x /n. Then we have Pn log p X 2 ? ?x2 ? c1 ?x2 , with probability of at least 1 ? p?2 for some absolute constant c1 . i=1 i n Based on the above concentration property, we can obtain following bound on the magnitude of a collection of sub-Gaussian random variables [3]. Lemma 2. Suppose X1 , . . . , Xn are n independentpsub-Gaussian random variables with parameter ? ?x / n. Then we have maxi=1,...,n |Xi | ? 4?x (log n + log p)/n with probability of at least 1 ? p?2 . 2 Here, the parameter means the sub-Gaussian norm of the random variable Y , kY k?2 supq?1 q ?1/2 (E|Y |q )1/q . 3 = Also, this lemma provides a rough bound on the magnitude of inlier samples, and this bound serves as a threshold for pre-processing the samples in the following RoLR algorithm. 3.2 RoLR Algorithm We now proceed to introduce the details of the proposed Robust Logistic Regression (RoLR) algorithm. Basically, RoLR first removes the samples with overly large magnitude and then maximizes a trimmed correlation of the remained samples with the estimated LR model. The intuition behind the RoLR maximizing the trimmed correlation is: if the outliers have too large magnitude, they will not contribute to the correlation and thus not affect the LR parameter learning. Otherwise, they have bounded affect on the LR learning (which actually can be bounded by the inlier samples due to our adopting the trimmed statistic). Algorithm 1 gives the implementation details of RoLR. Algorithm 1 RoLR Input: Contaminated training samples {(x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xn+n1 , yn+n1 )}, an upper bound on the number of outliers n1 , number p of inliers n and sample dimension p. Initialization: Set T = 4 log p/n + log n/n. Preprocessing: Remove samples (xi , yi ) whose magnitude satisfies kxi k ? T . Solve the following linear programming problem (see Eqn. (3)): ?? = arg max n X ??B2p [yh?, xi](i) . i=1 ? Output: ?. Note that, within the RoLR algorithm, we need to optimize the following sorted statistic: n X maxp [yh?, xi](i) . ??B2 (2) i=1 where [?](i) is a sorted statistic such that [z](1) ? [z](2) ? . . . ? [z](n) , and z denotes the involved variable. The problem in Eqn. (2) is equivalent to minimizing the summation of top n variables, which is a convex one and can be solved by an off-the-shelf solver (such as CVX). Here, we note that it can also be converted to the following linear programming problem (with a quadratic constraint), which enjoys higher computational efficiency. To see this, we first introduce auxiliary variables ti ? {0, 1} as indicators of whether the corresponding terms yi h?, ?xi i fall in the smallest n ones. Then, we write the problem in Eqn. (2) as n+n n+n X1 X1 ti ? yi h?, xi i, s.t. ti ? n, 0 ? ti ? 1. maxp min ??B2 ti i=1 i=1 Pn+n1 Pn+n Here the constraints of i=1 ti ? n, 0 ? ti ? 1 are from standard reformulation of i=1 1 ti = n, ti ? {0, 1}. Now, the above problem becomes a max-min linear programming. To decouple the variables ? and ti , we turn to solving the dual form of the inner minimization problem. Let ?, and Pn+n ?i be the Lagrange multipliers for the constraints i=1 1 ti ? n and ti ? 1 respectively. Then the dual form w.r.t. ti of the above problem is: n+n X1 max ?? ? n ? (3) ?i , s.t. yi h?, xi i + ? + ?i ? 0, ? ? B2p , ? ? 0, ?i ? 0. ?,?,?i i=1 Reformulating logistic regression into a linear programming problem as above significantly enhances the scalability of LR in handling large-scale datasets, a property very appealing in practice, since linear programming is known to be computationally efficient and has no problem dealing with up to 1 ? 106 variables in a standard PC. 3.3 Performance Guarantee for RoLR In contrast to traditional LR algorithms, RoLR does not perform a maximal likelihood estimation. Instead, RoLR maximizes the correlation yi h?, xi i . This strategy reduces the computational complexity of LR, and more importantly enhances the robustness of the parameter estimation, using 4 the fact that the authentic samples usually have positive correlation between the yi and h?, xi i, as described in the following lemma. Lemma 3. Fix ? ? S p?1 . Suppose that the sample (x, y) is generated by the model described in (1). The expectation of the product yh?, xi is computed as: Eyh?, xi = E sech2 (g/2), where g ? N (0, ?x2 + ?e2 ) is a Gaussian random variable and ?e2 is the noise level in (1). Furthermore, the above expectation can be bounded as follows, ?+ (?e2 , ?x2 ) ? Eyh?, xi ? ?? (?e2 , ?x2 ). where ?+ (?e2 , ?x2 ) and?? (?e2 , ?x2 ) are positive. ?2 1+?e2 ?+ (?e2 , ?x2 ) = 3x sech2 and ?? (?e2 , ?x2 ) = 2 In particular, theycan take the form of ?2 1+?e2 . + 6x sech2 2 2 ?x 3 The following lemma shows the difference of correlations is an effective surrogate for the difference of the LR parameters. Thus we can always minimize the difference of k?? ?? ? k through maximizing P ? i yi h?, xi i. Lemma 4. Fix ? ? S p?1 as the groundtruth parameter in (1) and ? 0 ? B2p . Denote ? = Eyh?, xi. Then Eyh? 0 , xi = ?h?, ? 0 i, and thus, ? E [yh?, xi ? yh? 0 , xi] = ?(1 ? h?, ? 0 i) ? k? ? ? 0 k22 . 2 Based on these two lemmas, along with some concentration properties of the inlier samples (shown in the supplementary material), we have the following performance guarantee of RoLR on LR model parameter recovery. Theorem 1 (RoLR for recovering LR parameter). Let ? , nn1 be the outlier fraction, ?? be the output of Algorithm 1, and ? ? be the ground truth parameter. Suppose that there are n authentic samples generated by the model described in (1). Then we have, with probability larger than 1 ? 4 exp(?c2 n/8), r ? r 2 ? 2 2(? + 4 + 5 ) , ? ?) p 8? log p log n ? (? x e 2 + + 2 2 ?x + . k?? ? ? k ? 2? + 2 2 + 2 + 2 ? (?e , ?x ) ? (?e , ?x ) n ? (?e , ?x ) n n Here c2 is an absolute constant. Remark 1. To make the above results more explicit, we consider the asymptotic case where p/n ? 0. Thus the above bounds become ?? (? 2 , ? 2 ) k?? ? ? ? k ? 2? + e2 x2 , ? (?e , ?x ) ? which holds with probability larger than 1 ? 4 exp(?c and 2 n/8). In the noiseless case, i.e., ?e = 0,   assuming ?x2 = 1, we have ?+ (?e2 ) = 13 sech2 12 ? 0.2622 and ?? (?e2 + 1) = 13 + 16 sech2 12 ? 0.4644. The ratio is ?? /?+ ? 1.7715. Thus the bound is simplified to: k?? ? ? ? k . 3.54?. ? ? ? ? S p?1 and the maximal value of k?? ? ? ? k is 2. Thus, for the above result to be Recall that ?, non-trivial, we need 3.54? ? 2, namely ? ? 0.56. In other words, in the noiseless case, the RoLR is able to estimate the LR parameter with a non-trivial error bound (also known as a ?breakdown point?) with up to 0.56/1.56 ? 100% = 36% of the samples being outliers. 4 Empirical and Population Risk Bounds of RoLR Besides the parameter recovery, we are also concerned about the prediction performance of the estimated LR model in practice. The standard prediction loss function `(?, ?) of LR is a non-negative and bounded function, and is defined as: 1 `((xi , yi ), ?) = . (4) 1 + exp{?yi ? > xi } 5 The goodness of an LR predictor ? is measured by its population risk: R(?) = EP (X,Y ) `((x, y), ?), where P (X, Y ) describes the joint distribution of covariate X and response Y . However, the population risk rarely can be calculated directly as the distribution P (X, Y ) is usually unknown. In practice, we often consider the empirical risk, which is calculated over the provided training samples as follows: n 1X Remp (?) = `((xi , yi ), ?). n i=1 Note that the empirical risk is computed only over the authentic samples, hence cannot be directly optimized when outliers exist. ? ? k provided in Theorem 1, we can easily obtain the following empirical Based on the bound of k??? risk bound for RoLR as the LR loss function given in Eqn. (4) is Lipschitz continuous. Corollary 1 (Bound on the empirical risk). Let ?? be the output of Algorithm 1, and ? ? be the optimal parameter minimizing the empirical risk. Suppose p that there are n authentic samples generated by the model described in (1). Define X , 4?x (log n + log p)/n. Then we have, with probability larger than 1 ? 4 exp(?c2 n/8), the empirical risk of ?? is bounded by, ( ? r ?? (?e2 , ?x2 ) 2(? + 4 + 5 ?) p ? ? Remp (?) ? Remp (? ) ? X 2? + 2 2 + ? (?e , ?x ) ?+ (?e2 , ?x2 ) n ) r 8?? 2 log p log n + + 2x 2 + . ? (?e , ?x ) n n Given the empirical risk bound, we can readily obtain the bound on the population risk by referring to standard generalization results in terms of various function class complexities. Some widely used complexity measures include the VC-dimension [18] and the Rademacher and Gaussian complexity [1]. Compared with the Rademacher complexity which is data dependent, the VC-dimension is more universal although the resulting generalization bound can be slightly loose. Here, we adopt the VC-dimension to measure the function complexity and obtain the following population risk bound. Corollary 2 (Bound on the population risk). Let ?? be the output of Algorithm 1, and ? ? be the optimal parameter. Suppose the parameter space S p?1 3 ? has finite VC dimension pd. There are n authentic samples are generated by the model described in (1). Define X , 4?x (log n + log p)/n. Then we have, with high probability larger larger than 1 ? 4 exp(?c2 n/8) ? ?, the population risk of ?? is bounded by, ( r ? r 8??x2 log p log n ?? (?e2 , ?x2 ) 2(? + 4 + 5 ?) p ? ? R(?) ? R(? ) ? X 2? + 2 2 + + + 2 2 + + 2 2 ? (?e , ?x ) ? (?e , ?x ) n ? (?e , ?x ) n n ) r d + ln(1/?) +2c3 . n Here both c2 and c3 are absolute constants. 5 5.1 Robust Binary Classification Problem Setup Different from the sample generation model for LR, in the standard binary classification setting, the label yi of a sample xi is deterministically determined by the sign of the linear measure of the sample h? ? , xi i. Namely, the samples are generated by the following model: yi = sign (h? ? , xi i + vi ) . (5) ? Here vi is a Gaussian noise as in Eqn. (1). Since yi is deterministically related to h? , xi i, the expected correlation Eyh?, xi achieves the maximal value in this setup (ref. Lemma 5), which ensures that the RoLR also performs well for classification. We again assume that the training samples contain n authentic samples and at most n1 outliers. 6 5.2 Performance Guarantee for Robust Classification Lemma 5. Fix ? ? S p?1 . Suppose the sample (x, y) is generated by the model described in (5). The expectation of the product yh?, xi is computed as: s 2?x4 Eyh?, xi = . ?(?x2 + ?v2 ) Comparing the above result with the one in Lemma 3, here for the binary classification, we can exactly calculate the expectation of the correlation, and this expectation is always larger than that of the LR setting. The correlation depends p on the signal-noise ratio ?x /?e . In the noiseless case, ?e = 0 and the expected correlation is ?x 2/?, which is well known as the half-normal distribution. Similarly to analyzing RoLR for LR, based on Lemma 5, we can obtain the following performance guarantee for RoLR in solving classification problems. Theorem 2. Let ?? be the output of Algorithm 1, and ? ? be the optimal parameter minimizing the empirical risk. Suppose there are n authentic samples generated by the model described by (5). Then we have, with large probability larger than 1 ? 4 exp(?c2 n/8), s r r ? (?e2 + ?x2 )?p (?e2 + ?x2 )? log p log n ? ? k? ? ? k2 ? 2? + 2(? + 4 + 5 ?) + 8? + . 2?x4 n 2 n n The proof of Theorem 2 is similar to that of Theorem 1. Also, similar to the LR case, based on the above parameter error bound, it is straightforward to obtain the empirical and population risk bounds of RoLR for classification. Due to the space limitation, here we only sketch how to obtain the risk bounds. For the classification problem, the most natural loss function is the 0 ? 1 loss. However, 0 ? 1 loss function is non-convex, non-smooth, and we cannot get a non-trivial function value bound in terms of k?? ? ? ? k as we did for the logistic loss function. Fortunately, several convex surrogate loss functions for 0 ? 1 loss have been proposed and achieve good classification performance, which include the hinge loss, exponential loss and logistic loss. These loss functions are all Lipschitz continuous and thus we can bound their empirical and then population risks as for logistic regression. 6 Simulations In this section, we conduct simulations to verify the robustness of RoLR along with its applicability for robust binary classification. We compare RoLR with standard logistic regression which estimates the model parameter through maximizing the log-likelihood function. We randomly generated the samples according to the model in Eqn. (1) for the logistic regression problem. In particular, we first sample the model parameter ? ? N (0, Ip ) and normalize it as ? := ?/k?k2 . Here p is the dimension of the parameter, which is also the dimension of samples. The samples are drawn i.i.d. from xi ? N (0, ?x ) with ?x = Ip , and the Gaussian noise is sampled as vi ? N (0, ?e ). Then, the sample label yi is generated according to P{yi = +1} = ? (h?, xi i+vi ) for the LR case. For the classification case, the sample labels are generated by yi = sign(h?, xi i+vi ) and additional nt = 1, 000 authentic samples are generated for testing. The entries of outliers xo are i.i.d. random variables from uniform distribution [??o , ?o ] with ?o = 10. The labels of outliers are generated by yo = sign(h??, xo i). That is, outliers follow the model having opposite sign as inliers, which according to our experiment, is the most adversarial outlier model. The ratio of outliers over inliers is denoted as ? = n1 /n, where n1 is the number of outliers and n is the number of inliers. We fix n = 1, 000 and the ? varies from 0 to 1.2, with a step of 0.1. We repeat the simulations under each outlier fraction setting for 10 times and plot the performance (including the average and the variance) of RoLR and ordinary LR versus the ratio of outliers to inliers in Figure 2. In particular, for the task of logistic regression, we measure the performance by the parameter prediction error k?? ? ? ? k. For classification, we use the classification error rate on test samples ? #(? yi 6= yi )/nt ? as the performance measure. Here y?i = sign(??> xi ) is the predicted label for sample xi and yi is the ground truth sample label. The results, shown in Figure 2, 7 2 1 0.8 classification error error: ||???*|| 1.5 1 0.5 0.4 0.2 RoLR LR LR+P 0 0 0.6 RoLR Classification LR Classification 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 outlier to inlier ratio 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 outlier to inliear ratio (a) Logistic regression (b) Classification Figure 2: Performance comparison between RoLR, ordinary LR and LR with the thresholding preprocessing as in RoLR (LR+P) for (a) regression parameter estimation and (b) classification, under the setting of ?e = 0.5, ?o = 10, p = 20 and n = 1, 000. The simulation is repeated for 10 times. clearly demonstrate that RoLR performs much better than standard LR for both tasks. Even when the outlier fraction is small (? = 0.1), RoLR already outperforms LR with a large margin. From Figure 2(a), we observe that when ? ? 0.3, the parameter estimation error of LR reaches around 1.3, which is pretty unsatisfactory since simply outputting a trivial solution ?? = 0 has an error of 1 (recall k? ? k2 = 1). In contrast, RoLR guarantees the estimation error to be around 0.5, even though ? = 0.8, i.e., around 45% of the samples are outliers. To see the role of preprocessing in RoLR, we also apply such preprocessing to LR and plot its performance as ?LR+P? in the figure. It can be seen that the preprocessing step indeed helps remove certain outliers with large magnitudes. However, when the fraction of outliers increases to ? = 0.5, more outliers with smaller magnitudes than the pre-defined threshold enter the remained samples and increase the error of ?LR+P? to be larger than 1. This demonstrates maximizing the correlation is more essential than the thresholding for the robustness gain of RoLR. From results for classification, shown in Figure 2(b), we observe that again from ? = 0.2, LR starts to breakdown. The classification error rate of LR achieves 0.8, which is even worse than random guess. In contrast, RoLR still achieves satisfactory classification performance with classification error rate around 0.4 even with ? ? 1. But when ? > 1, RoLR also breaks down as outliers dominate in the training samples. When there is no outliers, with the same inliers (n = 1 ? 103 and p = 20), the error of LR in logistic regression estimation is 0.06 while the error of RoLR is 0.13. Such performance degradation in RoLR is due to that RoLR maximizes the linear correlation statistics instead of the likelihood as in LR in inferring the regression parameter. This is the price RoLR needs to pay for the robustness. We provide more investigations and also results for real large data in the supplementary material. 7 Conclusions We investigated the problem of logistic regression (LR) under a practical case where the covariate matrix is adversarially corrupted. Standard LR methods were shown to fail in this case. We proposed a novel LR method, RoLR, to solve this issue. We theoretically and experimentally demonstrated that RoLR is robust to the covariate corruptions. Moreover, we devised a linear programming algorithm to solve RoLR, which is computationally efficient and can scale to large problems. We further applied RoLR to successfully learn classifiers from corrupted training samples. Acknowledgments The work of H. Xu was partially supported by the Ministry of Education of Singapore through AcRF Tier Two grant R-265-000-443-112. The work of S. Mannor was partially funded by the Intel Collaborative Research Institute for Computational Intelligence (ICRI-CI) and by the Israel Science Foundation (ISF under contract 920/12). 8 References [1] Peter L Bartlett and Shahar Mendelson. Rademacher and gaussian complexities: Risk bounds and structural results. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3:463?482, 2003. [2] Ana M Bianco and V??ctor J Yohai. Robust estimation in the logistic regression model. Springer, 1996. [3] Yudong Chen, Constantine Caramanis, and Shie Mannor. Robust sparse regression under adversarial corruption. In ICML, 2013. [4] R Dennis Cook and Sanford Weisberg. Residuals and influence in regression. 1982. [5] JB Copas. Binary regression models for contaminated data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), pages 225?265, 1988. [6] Nan Ding, SVN Vishwanathan, Manfred Warmuth, and Vasil S Denchev. T-logistic regression for binary and multiclass classification. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 5:1?55, 2013. [7] Frank R Hampel. The influence curve and its role in robust estimation. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 69(346):383?393, 1974. [8] Peter J Huber. Robust statistics. Springer, 2011. [9] Wesley Johnson. Influence measures for logistic regression: Another point of view. Biometrika, 72(1):59?65, 1985. [10] Hans R K?unsch, Leonard A Stefanski, and Raymond J Carroll. Conditionally unbiased bounded-influence estimation in general regression models, with applications to generalized linear models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 84(406):460?466, 1989. [11] Su-In Lee, Honglak Lee, Pieter Abbeel, and Andrew Y Ng. Efficient L1 regularized logistic regression. In AAAI, 2006. [12] Po-Ling Loh and Martin J Wainwright. High-dimensional regression with noisy and missing data: Provable guarantees with nonconvexity. Annals of Statistics, 40(3):1637, 2012. [13] Yaniv Plan and Roman Vershynin. Robust 1-bit compressed sensing and sparse logistic regression: A convex programming approach. Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on, 59(1):482?494, 2013. [14] Daryl Pregibon. Logistic regression diagnostics. The Annals of Statistics, pages 705?724, 1981. [15] Daryl Pregibon. Resistant fits for some commonly used logistic models with medical applications. Biometrics, pages 485?498, 1982. [16] Leonard A Stefanski, Raymond J Carroll, and David Ruppert. Optimally hounded score functions for generalized linear models with applications to logistic regression. Biometrika, 73(2):413?424, 1986. [17] Julie Tibshirani and Christopher D Manning. Robust logistic regression using shift parameters. arXiv preprint arXiv:1305.4987, 2013. [18] Vladimir N Vapnik and A Ya Chervonenkis. On the uniform convergence of relative frequencies of events to their probabilities. Theory of Probability & Its Applications, 16(2):264?280, 1971. 9
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Spectral Methods for Indian Buffet Process Inference Hsiao-Yu Fish Tung Machine Learning Department Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 Alexander J. Smola Machine Learning Department Carnegie Mellon University and Google Pittsburgh, PA 15213 Abstract The Indian Buffet Process is a versatile statistical tool for modeling distributions over binary matrices. We provide an efficient spectral algorithm as an alternative to costly Variational Bayes and sampling-based algorithms. We derive a novel tensorial characterization of the moments of the Indian Buffet Process proper and for two of its applications. We give a computationally efficient iterative inference algorithm, concentration of measure bounds, and reconstruction guarantees. Our algorithm provides superior accuracy and cheaper computation than comparable Variational Bayesian approach on a number of reference problems. 1 Introduction Inferring the distributions of latent variables is a key tool in statistical modeling. It has a rich history dating back over a century to mixture models for identifying crabs [27] and has served as a key tool for describing diverse sets of distributions ranging from text [10] to images [1] and user behavior [4]. In recent years spectral methods have become a credible alternative to sampling [19] and variational methods [9, 13] for the inference of such structures. In particular, the work of [6, 5, 11, 21, 29] demonstrates that it is possible to infer latent variable structure accurately, despite the problem being nonconvex, thus exhibiting many local minima. A particularly attractive aspect of spectral methods is that they allow for efficient means of inferring the model complexity in the same way as the remaining parameters, simply by thresholding eigenvalue decomposition appropriately. This makes them suitable for nonparametric Bayesian approaches. While the issue of spectral inference in Dirichlet Distribution is largely settled [6, 7], the domain of nonparametric tools is much richer and it is therefore desirable to see whether the methods can be extended to other models such as the Indian Buffet Process (IBP). This is the main topic of our paper. We provide a full analysis of the tensors arising from the IBP and how spectral algorithms need to be modified, since a degeneracy in the third order tensor requires fourth order terms. To recover the parameters and latent factors, we use Excess Correlation Analysis (ECA) [8] to whiten the higher order tensors and to reduce their dimensionality. Subsequently we employ the power method to obtain symmetric factorization of the higher-order terms. The method provided in this work is simple to implement and has high efficiency in recovering the latent factors and related parameters. We demonstrate how this approach can be used in inferring an IBP structure in the models discussed in [18] and [24]. Moreover, we show that empirically the spectral algorithm provides higher accuracy and lower runtime than variational methods [14]. Statistical guarantees for recovery and stability of the estimates conclude the paper. Outline: Section 2 gives a brief primer on the IBP. Section 3 contains the lower-order moments of IBP and its application on different model. Section 5 discusses concentration of measure of moments. Section 4 applies Excess Correlation Analysis to the moments and it provides the basic structure of this Algorithm. Section 6 shows the empirical performance of our algorithm. Due to space constraints we relegate most derivations and proofs to the appendix. 1 2 The Indian Buffet Process The Indian Buffet Process defines a distribution over equivalence classes of binary matrices Z with a finite number of rows and a (potentially) infinite number of columns [17, 18]. The idea is that this allows for automatic adjustment of the number of binary entries, corresponding to the number of independent sources, underlying causes, etc. This is a very useful strategy and it has led to many applications including structuring Markov transition matrices [15], learning hidden causes with a bipartite graph [30] and finding latent features in link prediction [26]. n ? N the number of rows of Z, i.e. the number of customers sampling dishes from the ? Indian Buffet?, let mk be the number of customers who have sampled dish k, let K+ be the total number of dishes sampled, and denote by n Kh the number of dishes with a particular selection history h ? {0; 1} . That is, Kh > 1 only if there are two or more dishes that have been selected by exactly the same set of customers. Then the probability of generating a particular matrix Z is given by [18] " # K+ n Y (n ? mk )!(mk ? 1)! X ?K+ 1 p(Z) = Q exp ?? (1) j n! h Kh ! j=1 k=1 Here ? is a parameter determining the expected number of nonzero columns in Z. Due to the conjugacy of the prior an alternative way of viewing p(Z) is that each column (aka dish) contains nonzero entries Zij that are drawn from the binomial distribution Zij ? Bin(?i ). That is, if we knew K+ , i.e. if we knew how many nonzero features Z contains, and if we knew the probabilities ?i , we could draw Z efficiently from it. We take this approach in our analysis: determine K+ and infer the probabilities ?i directly from the data. This is more reminiscent of the model used to derive the IBP ? a hierarchical Beta-Binomial model, albeit with a variable number of entries: ? ?i Zij i ? j ? {n}  K+ In general, the binary attributes Zij are not observed. Instead, they capture auxiliary structure pertinent to a statistical model of interest. To make matters more concrete, consider the following two models proposed by [18] and [24]. They also serve to showcase the algorithm design in our paper. Linear Gaussian Latent Feature Model [18]. The assumption is that we observe vectorial data x. It is generated by linear combination of dictionary atoms A and an associated unknown number of binary causes z, all corrupted by some additive noise . That is, we assume that x = Az +  where  ? N (0, ? 2 1) and z ? IBP(?). (2) The dictionary matrix A is considered to be fixed but unknown. In this model our goal is to infer both A, ? 2 and the probabilities ?i associated with the IBP model. Given that, a maximum-likelihood estimate of Z can be obtained efficiently. Infinite Sparse Factor Analysis [24]. A second model is that of sparse independent component analysis. In a way, it extends (2) by replacing binary attributes with sparse attributes. That is, instead of z we use the entry-wise product z.?y. This leads to the model x = A(z.?y) +  where  ? N (0, ? 2 1) , z ? IBP(?) and yi ? p(y) (3) Again, the goal is to infer A, the probabilities ?i and then to associate likely values of Zij and Yij with the data. In particular, [24] make a number of alternative assumptions on p(y), namely either that it is iid Gaussian or that it is iid Laplacian. Note that the scale of y itself is not so important since an equivalent model can always be found by rescaling A suitably. Note that in (3) we used the shorthand .? to denote point-wise multiplication of two vectors in ?Matlab? notation. While (2) and (3) appear rather similar, the latter model is considerably more complex since it not only amounts to a sparse signal but also to an additional multiplicative scale. [24] refer to the model as Infinite Sparse Factor Analysis (isFA) or Infinite Independent Component Analysis (iICA) depending on the choice of p(y) respectively. 2 3 Spectral Characterization We are now in a position to define the moments of the associated binary matrix. In our approach we assume that Z ? IBP(?). We assume that the number of nonzero attributes k is unknown (but fixed). Our analysis begins by deriving moments for the IBP proper. Subsequently we apply this to the two models described above. All proofs are deferred to the Appendix. For notational convenience we denote by S the symmetrized version of a tensor where care is taken to ensure that existing multiplicities are satisfied. That is, for a generic third order tensor we set S6 [A]ijk = Aijk + Akij + Ajki + Ajik + Akji + Aikj . However, if e.g. A = B ? c with Bij = Bji , we only need S3 [A]ijk = Aijk + Akij + Ajki to obtain a symmetric tensor. 3.1 Tensorial Moments for the IBP A degeneracy in the third order tensor requires that we compute a fourth order moment. We can exclude the cases of ?i = 0 and ?i = 1 since the former amounts to a nonexistent feature and the latter to a constant offset. We use Mi to denote moments of order i and Si to denote diagonal(izable) tensors of order i. Finally, we use ? ? RK+ to denote the vector of probabilities ?i . Order 1 This is straightforward, since we have M1 := Ez [z] = ? =: S1 . (4) Order 2 The second order tensor is given by   M2 := Ez [z ? z] = ? ? ? + diag ? ? ? 2 = S1 ? S1 + diag ? ? ? 2 . (5) Solving for the diagonal tensor we have  S2 := M2 ? S1 ? S1 = diag ? ? ? 2 . (6) The degeneracies {0, 1} of ? ? ? 2 = (1 ? ?)? can be ignored since they amount to non-existent and degenerate probability distributions. Order 3 The third order moments yield    M3 :=Ez [z ? z ? z] = ? ? ? ? ? + S3 ? ? diag ? ? ? 2 + diag ? ? 3? 2 + 2? 3 (7)  =S1 ? S1 ? S1 + S3 [S1 ? S2 ] + diag ? ? 3? 2 + 2? 3 . (8)  2 3 S3 :=M3 ? S3 [S1 ? S2 ] + S1 ? S1 ? S1 = diag ? ? 3? + 2? . (9) Note that the polynomial ? ? 3? 2 + 2? 3 = ?(2? ? 1)(? ? 1) vanishes for ? = 12 . This is undesirable for the power method ? we need to compute a fourth order tensor to exclude this. Order 4 The fourth order moments are M4 :=Ez [z ? z ? z ? z] = S1 ? S1 ? S1 ? S1 + S6 [S2 ? S1 ? S1 ] + S3 [S2 ? S2 ]  + S4 [S3 ? S1 ] + diag ? ? 7? 2 + 12? 3 ? 6? 4 S4 :=M4 ? S1 ? S1 ? S1 ? S1 ? S6 [S2 ? S1 ? S1 ] ? S3 [S2 ? S2 ] + S4 [S3 ? S1 ]  =diag ? ? 7? 2 + 12? 3 ? 6? 4 . (10) ? ?  1 The roots of the polynomial are 0, 2 ? 1/ 12, 21 + 1/ 12, 1 . Hence the latent factors and their corresponding ?k can be inferred either by S3 or S4 . 3.2 Application of the IBP The above derivation showed that if we were able to access z directly, we could infer ? from it by reading off terms from a diagonal tensor. Unfortunately, this is not quite so easy in practice since z generally acts as a latent attribute in a more complex model. In the following we show how the models of (2) and (3) can be converted into spectral form. We need some notation to indicate multiplications of a tensor M of order k by a set of matrices Ai . X [T (M, A1 , . . . , Ak )]i1 ,...ik := Mj1 ,...jk [A1 ]i1 j1 ? . . . ? [Ak ]ik jk . (11) j1 ,...jk 3 Note that this includes matrix multiplication. For instance, A> 1 M A2 = T (M, A1 , A2 ). Also note that in the special case where the matrices Ai are vectors, this amounts to a reduction to a scalar. Any such reduced dimensions are assumed to be dropped implicitly. The latter will become useful in the context of the tensor power method in [6]. Linear Gaussian Latent Factor Model. When dealing with (2) our goal is to infer both A and ?. The main difference is that rather than observing z we have Az, hence all tensors are colored. Moreover, we also need to deal with the terms arising from the additive noise . This yields S1 :=M1 = T (?, A) (12) S2 :=M2 ? S1 ? S1 ? ? 2 1 = T (diag(? ? ? 2 ), A, A) S3 :=M3 ? S1 ? S1 ? S1 ? S3 [S1 ? S2 ] ? S3 [m1 ? 1]   =T diag ? ? 3? 2 + 2? 3 , A, A, A (13) (14) S4 :=M4 ? S1 ? S1 ? S1 ? S1 ? S6 [S2 ? S1 ? S1 ] ? S3 [S2 ? S2 ] ? S4 [S3 ? S1 ] (15) 2 ? ? S6 [S2 ? 1] ? m4 S3 [1 ? 1]   =T diag ?6? 4 + 12? 3 ? 7? 2 + ? , A, A, A, A Here we used the auxiliary statistics m1 and m4 . Denote by v the eigenvector with the smallest eigenvalue of the covariance matrix of x. Then the auxiliary variables are defined as h i 2 m1 :=Ex x hv, (x ? E [x])i = ? 2 T (?, A) (16) h i 4 m4 :=Ex hv, (x ? Ex [x])i /3 = ?4 . (17) These terms are used in a tensor power method to infer both A and ? (Appendix A has a derivation). Infinite Sparse Factor Analysis. Using the model of (3) it follows that z is a symmetric distribution with mean 0 provided that p(y) has this property. From that it follows that the first and third order moments and tensors vanish, i.e. S1 = 0 and S3 = 0. We have the following statistics: S2 :=M2 ? ? 2 1 = T (c ? diag(?), A, A) (18) S4 :=M4 ? S3 [S2 ? S2 ] ? ? 2 S6 [S2 ? 1] ? m4 S3 [1 ? 1] = T (diag(f (?)), A, A, A, A) . (19) Here m4 is defined as in (17). Whenever p(y) in (3) is Gaussian, we have c = 1 and f (?) = ? ? ? 2 . Moreover, whenever p(y) follows the Laplace distribution, we have c = 2 and f (?) = 24? ? 12? 2 . Lemma 1 Any linear (2)or (3) with the property that  is symmetric and satisfies  model of the form  E[2 ] = E 2Gauss and E[4 ] = E 4Gauss the same properties for y, will yield the same moments. Proof This follows directly from the fact that z,  and y are independent and that the latter two have zero mean and are symmetric. Hence the expectations carry through regardless of the actual underlying distribution. 4 Parameter Inference Having derived symmetric tensors that contain both A and polynomials of ?, we need to separate those two factors and the additive noise, as appropriate. In a nutshell the approach is as follows: we first identify the noise floor using the assumption that the number of nonzero probabilities in ? is lower than the dimensionality of the data. Secondly, we use the noise-corrected second order tensor to whiten the data. This is akin to methods used in ICA [12]. Finally, we perform power iterations on the data to obtain S3 and S4 , or rather, their applications to data. Note that the eigenvalues in the ?1 re-scaled tensors differ slightly since we use S2 2 x directly rather than x. Robust Tensor Power Method Our reasoning follows that of [6]. It is our goal to obtain an orthogonal decomposition of the tensors Si into an orthogonal matrix V together with a set of corresponding eigenvalues ? such that Si = T [diag(?), V > , . . . , V > ]. This is accomplished by generalizing the Rayleigh quotient and power iterations as described in [6, Algorithm 1]: ?1 ? ? T [S, 1, ?, . . . , ?] and ? ? k?k 4 ?. (20) Algorithm 1 Excess Correlation Analysis for Linear-Gaussian model with IBP prior Inputs: the moments M1 , M2 , M3 , M4 . 1: Infer K and ? 2 : 0 2: Optionally find a subspace R ? Rd?K with K < K 0 by random projection. 3: 4: 5: 6: 7: 8: 9: 10: 11: 12: 13: 14: 15: Range (R) = Range (M2 ? M1 ? M1 ) and project down to R Set ? := ?min (M2 ? M1 ? M1 )  Set S2 = M2 ? M1 ? M1 ? ? 2 1  by truncating to eigenvalues larger than  Set K = rank S2 1 Set W = U ?? 2 , where [U, ?] = svd(S2 ) Whitening: (best carried out by preprocessing x) Set W3 := T (S3 , W, W, W ) Set W4 := T (S4 , W, W, W, W ) Tensor Power Method: Compute generalized eigenvalues and vectors of W3 . Keep all K1 ? K (eigenvalue, eigenvector) pairs (?i , vi ) of W3 Deflate W4 with (?i , vi ) for all i ? K1 Keep all K ? K1 (eigenvalue, eigenvector) pairs (?i , vi ) of deflated W4 Reconstruction: With corresponding eigenvalues {?1 , ? ? ? , ?K }, return the set A:   > 1 A= W ? vi : vi ? ? Zi p ?2?+1 where Zi = ?i ? ?i2 with ?i = f ?1 (?i ). f (?) = ? if i ? [K1 ] and f (?) = ??? 2 otherwise. (The proof of Equation (21) is provided in the Appendix.) 2 (21) 6? 2 ?6?+1 ??? 2 In a nutshell, we use a suitable number of random initialization l, perform a few iterations (v) and then proceed with the most promising candidate for another d iterations. The rationale for picking the best among l candidates is that we need a high probability guarantee that the selected initialization is non-degenerate. After finding a good candidate and normalizing its length we deflate (i.e. subtract) the term from the tensor S. Excess Correlation Analysis (ECA) The algorithm for recovering A is shown in Algorithm 1. We first present the method of inferring the number of latent features, K, which can be viewed as the rank of the covariance matrix. An efficient way of avoiding eigendecomposition on a d ? d 0 matrix is to find a low-rank approximation R ? Rd?K such that K < K 0  d and R spans the same space as the covariance matrix. One efficient way to find such matrix is to set R to be R = (M2 ? M1 ? M1 ) ?, (22) 0 where ? ? Rd?K is a random matrix with entries sampled independently from a standard normal. This is described, e.g. by [20]. Since there is noise in the data, it is not possible that we get exactly K non-zero eigenvalues with the remainder being constant at noise floor ? 2 . An alternative strategy to thresholding by ? 2 is to determine K by seeking the largest slope on the curve of sorted eigenvalues. Next, we whiten the observations by multiplying data with W ? Rd?K . This is computationally efficient, since we can apply this directly to x, thus yielding third and fourth order tensors W3 and W4 of size k. Moreover, approximately factorizing S2 is a consequence of the decomposition and random projection techniques arising from [20]. To find the singular vectors of W3 and W4 we use the robust tensor power method, as described above. From the eigenvectors we found in the last step, A could be recovered with Equation 21. The fact that this algorithm only needs projected tensors makes it very efficient. Streaming variants of the robust tensor power method are subject of future research. Further Details on the projected tensor power method. Explicitly calculating tensors M2 , M3 , M4 is not practical in high dimensional data. It may not even be desirable to compute the projected variants of M3 and M4 , that is, W3 and W4 (after suitable shifts). Instead, we can use 5 the analog of a kernel trick to simplify the tensor power iterations to W > T (Ml , 1, W u, . . . , W u) = m m l?1 1 X > W> X > l?1 W xi hxi , W ui = xi W xi , u m i=1 m i=1 By using incomplete expansions memory complexity and storage are reduced to O(d) per term. Moreover, precomputation is O(d2 ) and it can be accomplished in the first pass through the data. 5 Concentration of Measure Bounds There exist a number of concentration of measure inequalities for specific statistical models using rather specific moments [8]. In the following we derive a general tool for bounding such quantities, both for the case where the statistics are bounded and for unbounded quantities alike. Our analysis borrows from [3] for the bounded case, and from the average-median theorem, see e.g. [2]. 5.1 Bounded Moments We begin with the analysis for bounded moments. Denote by ? : X ? F a set of statistics on X and let ?l be the l-times tensorial moments obtained from l. ?1 (x) := ?(x); ?2 (x) := ?(x) ? ?(x); ?l (x) := ?(x) ? . . . ? ?(x) (23) In this case we can define inner products via l kl (x, x0 ) := h?l (x), ?l (x0 )i = T [?l (x), ?(x0 ), . . . , ?(x0 )] = h?(x), ?(x0 )i = k l (x, x0 ) as reductions of the statistics of order l for a kernel k(x, x0 ) := h?(x), ?(x0 )i. Finally, denote by m ? l := Ml := Ex?p(x) [?l (x)] and M 1 X ?l (xj ) m j=1 (24) the expectation and empirical averages of ?l . Note that these terms are identical to the statistics used in [16] whenever a polynomial kernel is used. It is therefore not surprising that an analogous concentration of measure inequality to the one proven by [3] holds: Theorem 2 Assume that the sufficient statistics are bounded via k?(x)k ? R for all x ? X . With probability at most 1 ? ? the following guarantee holds: ( )   ? 2 + ?2 log ? Rl ? ? Pr sup T (Ml , u, ? ? ? , u) ? T (Ml , u, ? ? ? , u) > l ? ? where l ? . m u:kuk?1 Using Lemma 1 this means that we have concentration of measure immediately for the moments S1 , . . . S4 .Details are provided in the appendix. In particular, we need a chaining result (Lemma 4) that allows us to compute bounds for products of terms efficiently. By utilizing an approach similar to [8], overall guarantees for reconstruction accuracy can be derived. 5.2 Unbounded Moments We are interested in proving concentration of the following four tensors in (13), (14), (15) and one scalar in (27). Whenever the statistics are unbounded, concentration of moment bounds are less trivial and require the use of subgaussian and gaussian inequalities [22]. We derive a bound for fourth-order subgaussian random variables (previous work only derived up to third order bounds). Lemma 5 and 6 has details on how to obtain such guarantees. We further get the bounds for the tensors based on the concentration of moment in Lemma 7 and 8. Bounds for reconstruction accuracy of our algorithm are provided. The full proof is in the Appendix. Theorem 3 (Reconstruction Accuracy) Let ?k [S2 ] be the k ?th largest Q singular value Q of S2 . Define ?min = argmaxi?[K] |?i ? 0.5|, ?max = argmaxi?[K] ?i and ? ? = {i:?i ?0.5} ?i {i:?i >0.5} (1 ? 6 ?i ). Pick any ?,  ? (0, 1). There exists a polynomial poly(?) such that if sample size m statisfies K P 2 ! kAi k2 ?max 1 1 ?1 [S2 ] i=1 ?2 1 m ? poly d, K, , log(1/?), , ,p , , ,? 2  ? ? ?K [S2 ] ?K [S2 ] ?K [S2 ] ?min ? ?min2 ?max ? ?max ? with probability greater permutation ?, there is a p than 1 ?  ? on [K] such that the A returns by ? Algorithm 1 satifies A? (i) ? Ai ? kAi k + ?1 [S2 ]  for all i ? [K]. 2 6 Experiments We evaluate the algorithm on a number of problems suitable for the two models of (2) and (3). The problems are largely identical to those put forward in [18] in order to keep our results comparable with a more traditional inference approach. We demonstrate that our algorithm is faster, simpler, and achieves comparable or superior accuracy. Synthetic data Our goal is to demonstrate the ability to recover latent structure of generated data. Following [18] we generate images via linear noisy combinations of 6 ? 6 templates. That is, we use the binary additive model of (2). The goal is to recover both the above images and to assess their respective presence in observed data. Using an additive noise variance of ? 2 = 0.5 we are able to recover the original signal quite accurately (from left to right: true signal, signal inferred from 100 samples, signal inferred from 500 samples). Furthermore, as the second row indicates, our algorithm also correctly infers the attributes present in the images. 0100 1100 0101 0100 1001 1100 01 11 00 1 0 Text 10 01 00 1 1 For a more quantitative evaluation we compared our results to the infinite variational algorithm of [14]. The data is generated using ? ? {0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5} and with sample size n ? {100, 200, 300, 400, 500}. Figure 1 shows that our algorithm is faster and comparatively accurate. negative log likelihood to ? CPU time to N 8000 300 250 6000 CPU time(sec) negative loglikelihood 7000 Infinite Variational Approach Spectral Method on IBP 5000 4000 3000 200 150 100 2000 50 1000 0 Infinite Variational Approach Spectral Method on IBP 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0 0.6 200 ? 400 N 600 800 1000 Figure 1: Comparison to infinite variational approach. The first plot compares the test negative log likelihood training on N = 500 samples with different ?. The second plot shows the CPU time to data size, N , between the two methods. Image Source Recovery We repeated the same test using 100 photos from [18]. We first reduce dimensionality on the data set by representing the images with 100 principal components and apply our algorithm on the 100-dimensional dataset (see Algorithm 1 for details). Figure 2 shows the result. We used 10 initial iterations 50 random seeds and 30 final iterations 50 in the Robust Power Tensor Method. The total runtime was 0.2788s. 7 Figure 2: Results of modeling 100 images from [18] of size 240 ? 320 by model (2). Row 1: four sample images containing up to four objects ($20 bill, Klein bottle, prehistoric handaxe, cellular phone). An object basically appears in the same location, but some small variation noise is generated because the items are put into scene by hand; Row 2: Independent attributes, as determined by infinite variational inference of [14] (note, the results in [18] are black and white only); Row 3: Independent attributes, as determined by spectral IBP; Row 4: Reconstruction of the images via spectral IBP. The binary superscripts indicate the items identified in the image. Original G Spectral isFA MCMC Figure 3: Recovery of the source matrix A in model (3) when comparing MCMC sampling and spectral methods. MCMC sampling required 1.72 seconds and yielded a Frobenius distance kA ? AMCM kF = 0.77. Our spectral algorithm required 0.77 seconds to achieve a distance kA ? ASpectral kF = 0.31. Figure 4: Gene signatures derived by the spectral IBP. They show that there are common hidden causes in the observed expression levels, thus offering a considerably simplified representation. Gene Expression Data As a first sanity check of the feasibility of our model for (3), we generated synthetic data using x ? R7 with k = 4 sources and n = 500 samples, as shown in Figure 3. For a more realistic analysis we used a microarray dataset. The data consisted of 587 mouse liver samples detecting 8565 gene probes, available as dataset GSE2187 as part of NCBI?s Gene Expression Omnibus www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/geo. There are four main types of treatments, including Toxicant, Statin, Fibrate and Azole. Figure 4 shows the inferred latent factors arising from expression levels of samples on 10 derived gene signatures. According to the result, the group of fibrate-induced samples and a small group of toxicant-induced samples can be classified accurately by the special patterns. Azole-induced samples have strong positive signals on gene signatures 4 and 8, while statin-induced samples have strong positive signals only on the 9 gene signatures. Summary In this paper we introduced a spectral approach to inferring latent parameters in the Indian Buffet Process. We derived tensorial moments for a number of models, provided an efficient inference algorithm, concentration of measure theorems and reconstruction guarantees. All this is backed up by experiments comparing spectral and MCMC methods. We believe that this is a first step towards expanding spectral nonparametric tools beyond the more common Dirichlet Process representations. Applications to more sophisticated models, larger datasets and efficient implementations are subject for future work. 8 References [1] R. Adams, Z. Ghahramani, and M. Jordan. Tree-structured stick breaking for hierarchical data. In Neural Information Processing Systems, pages 19?27, 2010. [2] N. Alon, Y. Matias, and M. Szegedy. The space complexity of approximating the frequency moments. Journal of Computers and System Sciences, 58(1):137?147, 1999. [3] Y. Altun and A. J. Smola. Unifying divergence minimization and statistical inference via convex duality. In H.U. Simon and G. Lugosi, editors, Proc. Annual Conf. Computational Learning Theory, LNCS, pages 139?153. Springer, 2006. [4] M. Aly, A. Hatch, V. Josifovski, and V.K. Narayanan. Web-scale user modeling for targeting. In Conference on World Wide Web, pages 3?12. ACM, 2012. [5] A. Anandkumar, K. Chaudhuri, D. Hsu, S. Kakade, L. Song, and T. Zhang. Spectral methods for learning multivariate latent tree structure. In Neural Information Processing Systems, 2011. [6] A. Anandkumar, R. Ge, D. Hsu, S. M. Kakade, and M. Telgarsky. Tensor decompositions for learning latent variable models. arXiv preprint arXiv:1210.7559, 2012. [7] Anima Anandkumar, Rong Ge, Daniel Hsu, and Sham M Kakade. A tensor spectral approach to learning mixed membership community models. 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Spectral Methods for Supervised Topic Models Yining Wang? Jun Zhu? Machine Learning Department, Carnegie Mellon University, yiningwa@cs.cmu.edu ? Dept. of Comp. Sci. & Tech.; Tsinghua National TNList Lab; State Key Lab of Intell. Tech. & Sys., Tsinghua University, dcszj@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn ? Abstract Supervised topic models simultaneously model the latent topic structure of large collections of documents and a response variable associated with each document. Existing inference methods are based on either variational approximation or Monte Carlo sampling. This paper presents a novel spectral decomposition algorithm to recover the parameters of supervised latent Dirichlet allocation (sLDA) models. The Spectral-sLDA algorithm is provably correct and computationally efficient. We prove a sample complexity bound and subsequently derive a sufficient condition for the identifiability of sLDA. Thorough experiments on a diverse range of synthetic and real-world datasets verify the theory and demonstrate the practical effectiveness of the algorithm. 1 Introduction Topic modeling offers a suite of useful tools that automatically learn the latent semantic structure of a large collection of documents. Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) [9] represents one of the most popular topic models. The vanilla LDA is an unsupervised model built on input contents of documents. In many applications side information is available apart from raw contents, e.g., user-provided rating scores of an online review text. Such side signal usually provides additional information to reveal the underlying structures of the documents in study. There have been extensive studies on developing topic models that incorporate various side information, e.g., by treating it as supervision. Some representative models are supervised LDA (sLDA) [8] that captures a real-valued regression response for each document, multiclass sLDA [21] that learns with discrete classification responses, discriminative LDA (DiscLDA) [14] that incorporates classification response via discriminative linear transformations on topic mixing vectors, and MedLDA [22, 23] that employs a max-margin criterion to learn discriminative latent topic representations. Topic models are typically learned by finding maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) through local search or sampling methods [12, 18, 19], which may suffer from local optima. Much recent progress has been made on developing spectral decomposition [1, 2, 3] and nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) [4, 5, 6, 7] methods to infer latent topic-word distributions. Instead of finding MLE estimates, which is a known NP-hard problem [6], these methods assume that the documents are i.i.d. sampled from a topic model, and attempt to recover the underlying model parameters. Compared to local search and sampling algorithms, these methods enjoy the advantage of being provably effective. In fact, sample complexity bounds have been proved to show that given a sufficiently large collection of documents, these algorithms can recover the model parameters accurately with a high probability. Although spectral decomposition (as well as NMF) methods have achieved increasing success in recovering latent variable models, their applicability is quite limited. For example, previous work has mainly focused on unsupervised latent variable models, leaving the broad family of supervised models (e.g., sLDA) largely unexplored. The only exception is [10] which presents a spectral method for mixtures of regression models, quite different from sLDA. Such ignorance is not a coincidence as supervised models impose new technical challenges. For instance, a direct application of previous 1 techniques [1, 2] on sLDA cannot handle regression models with duplicate entries. In addition, the sample complexity bound gets much worse if we try to match entries in regression models with their corresponding topic vectors. On the practical side, few quantitative experimental results (if any at all) are available for spectral decomposition based methods on LDA models. In this paper, we extend the applicability of spectral learning methods by presenting a novel spectral decomposition algorithm to recover the parameters of sLDA models from empirical low-order moments estimated from the data. We provide a sample complexity bound and analyze the identifiability conditions. A key step in our algorithm is a power update step that recovers the regression model in sLDA. The method uses a newly designed empirical moment to recover regression model entries directly from the data and reconstructed topic distributions. It is free from making any constraints on the underlying regression model, and does not increase the sample complexity much. We also provide thorough experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets to demonstrate the practical effectiveness of our proposed algorithm. By combining our spectral recovery algorithm with a Gibbs sampling procedure, we showed superior performance in terms of language modeling, prediction accuracy and running time compared to traditional inference algorithms. 2 Preliminaries We first overview the basics of sLDA, orthogonal tensor decomposition and the notations to be used. 2.1 Supervised LDA Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) [9] is a generative model for topic modeling of text documents. It assumes k different topics with topic-word distributions ?1 , ? ? ? , ?k ? ?V ?1 , where V is the vocabulary size and ?V ?1 denotes the probability simplex of a V -dimensional random vector. For a document, LDA models a topic mixing vector h ? ?k?1 as a probability distribution over the k topics. A conjugate Dirichlet prior with parameter ? is imposed on the topic mixing vectors. A bag-of-word model is then adopted, which generates each word in the document based on h and the topic-word vectors ?. Supervised latent Dirichlet allocation (sLDA) [8] incorporates an extra response variable y ? R for each document. The response variable is modeled by a linear regression ? , where model ?P ? Rk on either the topic mixing vector h or the averaging topic assignment vector z 1 z?i = m 1 with m the number of words in a document. The noise is assumed to be Gaussian j [zj =i] with zero mean and ? 2 variance. Fig. 1 shows the graph structure of two sLDA variants mentioned above. Although previous work has mainly focused on model (b) which is convenient for Gibbs sampling and variational inference, we consider model (a) because it will considerably simplify our spectral algorithm and analysis. One may assume that whenever a document is not too short, the empirical distribution of its word topic assignments should be close to the document?s topic mixing vector. Such a scheme was adopted to learn sparse topic coding models [24], and has demonstrated promising results in practice. 2.2 High-order tensor product and orthogonal tensor decomposition Np ni belongs to the tensor product of Euclidean spaces Rni . A real p-th order tensor A ? i=1 R Generally we assume n1 = n2 = ? ? ? = np = n, and we can identify each coordinate of A by a p-tuple (i1 , ? ? ? , ip ), where i1 , ? ? ? , ip ? [n]. For instance, a p-th order tensor is a vector when p = 1 and aN matrix when p = 2. We can also consider a p-th order tensor A as a multilinear mapping. For p n A? R and matrices X1 , ? ? ? , Xp ? Rn?m , the mapping A(X1 , ? ? ? , Xp ) is a p-th order tensor Np m P R , with [A(X1 , ? ? ? , Xp )]i1 ,??? ,ip , j1 ,??? ,jp ?[n] Aj1 ,??? ,jp [X1 ]j1 ,i1 [X2 ]j2 ,i2 ? ? ? [Xp ]jp ,ip . in Consider some concrete examples of such a multilinear mapping. When A, X1 , X2 are matrices, we have A(X1 , X2 ) = X1> AX2 . Similarly, when A is a matrix and x is a vector, A(I, x) = Ax. Np n An orthogonal tensor decomposition of a tensor A ? R is a collection of orthonormal vectors Pk ?p k k {v i }i=1 and scalars {?i }i=1 such that A = i=1 ?i v i . Without loss of generality, we assume ?i are nonnegative when p is odd. Although orthogonal tensor decomposition in the matrix case can be done efficiently by singular value decomposition (SVD), it has several delicate issues in higher order tensor spaces [2]. For instance, tensors may not have unique decompositions, and an orthogonal decomposition may not exist for every symmetric tensor [2]. Such issues are further complicated when only noisy estimates of the desired tensors are available. For these reasons, we need more advanced techniques to handle high-order tensors. In this paper, we will apply the robust 2 ? z h ? x M ? ? x M k y ?, ? z h ?, ? k y ? ? N N (a) yd = ? > d hd + ?d ? d + ?d (b) yd = ? > d z Figure 1: Plate notations for two variants of sLDA tensor power method [2] to recover robust eigenvalues and eigenvectors of an (estimated) third-order tensor. The algorithm recovers eigenvalues and eigenvectors up to an absolute error ?, while running in polynomial time with respect to the tensor dimension and log(1/?). Further details and analysis of the robust tensor power method are presented in Appendix A.2 and [2]. 2.3 Notations ?p Throughout,pwe Puse2v , v?v?? ? ??v to denote the p-th order tensor generated by a vector v. We use kvk = i vi to denote the Euclidean norm of a vector v, kM k to denote the spectral qP norm 2 of a matrix M and kT k to denote the operator norm of a high-order tensor. kM kF = i,j Mij denotes the Frobenious norm of a matrix. We use an indicator vector x ? RV to represent a word in a document, e.g., for the i-th word in the vocabulary, xi = 1 and xj = 0 for all j 6= i. We also use e , (e e 2, ? ? ? , ? eK ) O , (?1 , ?2 , ? ? ? , ?k ) ? RV ?k to denote the topicqdistribution matrix, and O ?1 , ? P k ?i e i = ?0 (?0 +1) ? with ?0 = i=1 ?i . to denote the canonical version of O, where ? 3 Spectral Parameter Recovery We now present a novel spectral parameter recovery algorithm for sLDA. The algorithm consists of two key components?the orthogonal tensor decomposition of observable moments to recover the topic distribution matrix O and a power update method to recover the linear regression model ?. We elaborate on these techniques and a rigorous theoretical analysis in the following sections. 3.1 Moments of observable variables Our spectral decomposition methods recover the topic distribution matrix O and the linear regression model ? by manipulating moments of observable variables. In Definition 1, we define a list of moments on random variables from the underlying sLDA model. Definition 1. We define the following moments of observable variables: M1 = E[x1 ], M2 = E[x1 ? x2 ] ? M3 = E[x1 ? x2 ? x3 ] ? ?0 M1 ? M1 , ?0 + 1 (1) ?0 (E[x1 ? x2 ? M1 ] + E[x1 ? M1 ? x2 ] + E[M1 ? x1 ? x2 ]) ?0 + 2 2?02 M1 ? M1 ? M1 , (?0 + 1)(?0 + 2) ?0 (E[y]E[x1 ? x2 ] + E[x1 ] ? E[yx2 ] + E[yx1 ] ? E[x2 ]) My = E[yx1 ? x2 ] ? ?0 + 2 2?02 + E[y]M1 ? M1 . (?0 + 1)(?0 + 2) + (2) (3) Note that the moments M1 , M2 and M3 were also defined and used in previous work [1, 2] for the parameter recovery for LDA models. For the sLDA model, we need to define a new moment My in order to recover the linear regression model ?. The moments are based on observable variables in the sense that they can be estimated from i.i.d. sampled documents. For instance, M1 can be estimated by computing the empirical distribution of all words, and M2 can be estimated using M1 and word co-occurrence frequencies. Though the moments in the above forms look complicated, we can apply elementary calculations based on the conditional independence structure of sLDA to significantly simplify them and more importantly to get them connected with the model parameters to be recovered, as summarized in Proposition 1. The proof is deferred to Appendix B. 3 Proposition 1. The momentsk can be expressed using the model parameters as: k 3.2 M2 = X X 1 2 ?i ?i ? ?i , M3 = ?i ?i ? ?i ? ?i , ?0 (?0 + 1) i=1 ?0 (?0 + 1)(?0 + 2) i=1 (4) My = k X 2 ?i ?i ?i ? ?i . ?0 (?0 + 1)(?0 + 2) i=1 (5) Simultaneous diagonalization Proposition 1 shows that the moments in Definition 1 are all the weighted sums of tensor products of {?i }ki=1 from the underlying sLDA model. One idea to reconstruct {?i }ki=1 is to perform simultaneous diagonalization on tensors of different orders. The idea has been used in a number of recent developments of spectral methods for latent variable models [1, 2, 10]. Specifically, we first whiten the second-order tensor M2 by finding a matrix W ? RV ?k such that W > M2 W = Ik . This whitening procedure is possible whenever the topic distribuction vectors {?i }ki=1 are linearly independent (and hence M2 has rank k). The whitening procedure and the linear independence assumption also imply that {W ?i }ki=1 are orthogonal vectors (see Appendix A.2 for details), and can be subsequently recovered by performing an orthogonal tensor decomposition on the simultaneously whitened third-order tensor M3 (W, W, W ). Finally, by multiplying the pseudo-inverse of the whitening matrix W + we obtain the topic distribution vectors {?i }ki=1 . It should be noted that Jennrich?s algorithm [13, 15, 17] could recover {?i }ki=1 directly from the 3rd order tensor M3 alone when {?i }ki=1 is linearly independent. However, we still adopt the above simultaneous diagonalization framework because the intermediate vectors {W ?i }ki=1 play a vital role in the recovery procedure of the linear regression model ?. 3.3 The power update method Although the linear regression model ? can be recovered in a similar manner by performing simultaneous diagonalization on M2 and My , such a method has several disadvantages, thereby calling for novel solutions. First, after obtaining entry values {?i }ki=1 we need to match them to the topic distributions {?i }ki=1 previously recovered. This can be easily done when we have access to the true moments, but becomes difficult when only estimates of observable tensors are available because the estimated moments may not share the same singular vectors due to sampling noise. A more serious problem is that when ? has duplicate entries the orthogonal decomposition of My is no longer unique. Though a randomized strategy similar to the one used in [1] might solve the problem, it could substantially increase the sample complexity [2] and render the algorithm impractical. We develop a power update method to resolve the above difficulties. Specifically, after obtaining the whitened (orthonormal) vectors {v i } , ci ? W ?i 1 we recover the entry ?i of the linear regression model directly by computing a power update v > i My (W, W )v i . In this way, the matching problem is automatically solved because we know what topic distribution vector ?i is used when recovering ?i . Furthermore, the singular values (corresponding to the entries of ?) do not need to be distinct because we are not using any unique SVD properties of My (W, W ). As a result, our proposed algorithm works for any linear model ?. 3.4 Parameter recovery algorithm An outline of our parameter recovery algorithm for sLDA (Spectral-sLDA) is given in Alg. 1. First, empirical estimates of the observable moments in Definition 1 are computed from the given documents. The simultaneous diagonalization method is then used to reconstruct the topic distribution matrix O and its prior parameter ?. After obtaining O = (?1 , ? ? ? , ?k ), we use the power update method introduced in the previous section to recover the linear regression model ?. Alg. 1 admits three hyper-parameters ?0 , L and T . ?0 is defined as the sum of all entries in the prior parameter ?. Following the conventions in [1, 2], we assume that ?0 is known a priori and use this value to perform parameter estimation. It should be noted that this is a mild assumption, as in practice usually a homogeneous vector ? is assumed and the entire vector is known [20]. The L and T parameters are used to control the number of iterations in the robust tensor power method. In general, the robust tensor power method runs in O(k 3 LT ) time. To ensure sufficient recovery accuracy, 1 ci is a scalar coefficient that depends on ?0 and ?i . See Appendix A.2 for details. 4 Algorithm 1 spectral parameter recovery algorithm for sLDA. Input parameters: ?0 , L, T . c2 , M c3 and M cy . 1: Compute empirical moments and obtain M n?k c c c c 2: Find W ? R such that M2 (W , W ) = Ik . bi , v c3 (W c, W c, W c ) using the robust tensor bi ) of M 3: Find robust eigenvalues and eigenvectors (? power method [2] with parameters L and T . 4: Recover prior parameters: ? bi ? 4?0 (?0 +1) . 2 b2 (?0 +2) ?i ?0 +2 b c + > b 2 ?i (W ) v i . ?0 +2 > c c c bi My (W , W )b model: ?bi ? 2 v vi . bi ? 5: Recover topic distributions: ? 6: Recover the linear regression b, ? b and {b 7: Output: ? ?i }ki=1 . L should be at least a q linear function of k and T should be set as T = ?(log(k) + log log(?max /?)), 0 +1) where ?max = ?02+2 ?0?(?min and ? is an error tolerance parameter. Appendix A.2 and [2] provide a deeper analysis into the choice of L and T parameters. 3.5 Speeding up moment computation c3 requires O(N M 3 ) time and In Alg. 1, a straightforward computation of the third-order tensor M O(V 3 ) storage, where N is corpus size and M is the number of words per document. Such time and space complexities are clearly prohibitive for real applications, where the vocabulary usually contains tens of thousands of terms. However, we can employ a trick similar as in [11] to speed c3 (W c, W c, W c ) is needed up the moment computation. We first note that only the whitened tensor M 3 in our algorithm, which only takes O(k ) storage. Another observation is that the most difficult c3 can be written as Pr ci ui,1 ? ui,2 ? ui,3 , where r is proportional to N and ui,? term in M i=1 c3 (W c, W c, W c ) in O(N M k) time contains at most M non-zero entries. This allows us to compute M Pr by computing i=1 ci (W > ui,1 ) ? (W > ui,2 ) ? (W > ui,3 ). Appendix B.2 provides more details about this speed-up trick. The overall time complexity is O(N M (M + k 2 ) + V 2 + k 3 LT ) and the space complexity is O(V 2 + k 3 ). 4 Sample Complexity Analysis We now analyze the sample complexity of Alg. 1 in order to achieve ?-error with a high probability. For clarity, we focus on presenting the main results, while deferring the proof details to Appendix A, including the proofs of important lemmas that are needed for the main theorem. e and ?k (O) e be the largest and the smallest singular values of the canonical Theorem 1. Let ?1 (O) q q ?0 (?0 +1) 0 +1) e Define ?min , 2 topic distribution matrix O. and ?max , ?02+2 ?0?(?min with ?0 +2 ?max b, ? b and ? b are the outputs of ?max and ?min the largest and the smallest entries of ?. Suppose ? Algorithm 1, and L is at least a linear function of k. Fix ? ? (0, 1). For any small error-tolerance parameter ? > 0, if Algorithm 1 is run with parameter T = ?(log(k) + log log(?max /?)) on N i.i.d. sampled documents (each containing at least 3 words) with N ? max(n1 , n2 , n3 ), where p    2 ?2 (? + 1)2 p (1 + log(9/?))2 1 k2 0 n1 = C1 ? 1 + log(6/?) ? 0 , n 3 = C3 ? ? max , , e 10 ?min ?2 ?2min ?k (O) p   (1 + log(15/?))2 2 e 2 , n2 = C2 ? ? max (k?k + ??1 (?/60?))2 , ?max ?1 (O) e 4 ?2 ?k (O) and C1 , C2 and C3 are universal constants, then with probability at least 1 ? ?, there exists a permutation ? : [k] ? [k] such that for every topic i, the following holds: 1. |?i ? ? b?(i) | ? 4?0 (?0 +1)(?max +5?) (?0 +2)2 ?2min (?min ?5?)2   e 8?max + b ?(i) k ? 3?1 (O) 2. k?i ? ? ?min 3. |?i ? ?b?(i) | ?  k?k ?min ? 5?, if ?min > 5?; 5(?0 +2) 2  + (?0 + 2) ?. 5   + 1 ?; ? error (1?norm) ? error (1?norm) 0.6 M=250 M=500 0.4 M=250 M=500 10 5 ? error (1?norm) M=250 M=500 0.4 0.2 0.2 0 300 600 1000 3000 6000 10000 0 300 600 1000 3000 6000 10000 0 300 600 1000 3000 6000 10000 Figure 2: Reconstruction errors of Alg. 1. X axis denotes the training size. Error bars denote the standard deviations measured on 3 independent trials under each setting. In brevity, the proof is based on matrix perturbation lemmas (see Appendix A.1) and analysis to the orthogonal tensor decomposition methods (including SVD and robust tensor power method) performed on inaccurate tensor estimations (see Appendix A.2). The sample complexity lower bound consists of three terms, from n1 to n3 . The n3 term comes from the sample complexity bound for the robust tensor power method [2]; the (k?k + ??1 (?/60?))2 term in n2 characterizes 2 e 2 term arises when the recovery accuracy for the linear regression model ?, and the ?max ?1 (O) we try to recover the topic distribution vectors ?; finally, the term n1 is required so that some e and could be technical conditions are met. The n1 term does not depend on either k or ?k (O), largely neglected in practice. An important implication of Theorem 1 is that it provides a sufficient condition for a supervised LDA model to be identifiable, as shown in Remark 1. To some extent, Remark 1 is the best identifiability result possible under our inference framework, because it makes no restriction on the linear regression model ?, and the linear independence assumption is unavoidable without making further assumptions on the topic distribution matrix O. Remark 1. Given a sufficiently large number of i.i.d. sampled documents with at least 3 words per Pk document, a supervised LDA model M = (?, ?, ?) is identifiable if ?0 = i=1 ?i is known and {?i }ki=1 are linearly independent. e and a simplified We also make remarks on indirected quantities appeared in Theorem 1 (e.g., ?k (O)) sample complexity bound for some specical cases. They can be found in Appendix A.4. 5 5.1 Experiments Datasets description and Algorithm implementation details We perform experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets. The synthetic data are generated in a similar manner as in [22], with a fixed vocabulary of size V = 500. We generate the topic distribution matrix O by first sampling each entry from a uniform distribution and then normalize every column of O. The linear regression model ? is sampled from a standard Gaussian distribution. The prior parameter ? is assumed to be homogeneous, i.e., ? = (1/k, ? ? ? , 1/k). Documents and response variables are then generated from the sLDA model specified in Sec. 2.1. For real-world data, we use the large-scale dataset built on Amazon movie reviews [16] to demonstrate the practical effectiveness of our algorithm. The dataset contains 7,911,684 movie reviews written by 889,176 users from Aug 1997 to Oct 2012. Each movie review is accompanied with a score from 1 to 5 indicating how the user likes a particular movie. The median number of words per review is 101. A vocabulary with V = 5, 000 terms is built by selecting high frequency words. We also pre-process the dataset by shifting the review scores so that they have zero mean. Both Gibbs sampling for the sLDA model in Fig. 1 (b) and the proposed spectral recovery algorithm are implemented in C++. For our spectral algorithm, the hyperparameters L and T are set to 100, which is sufficiently large for all settings in our experiments. Since Alg. 1 can only recover the topic model itself, we use Gibbs sampling to iteratively sample topic mixing vectors h and topic assignments for each word z in order to perform prediction on a held-out dataset. 5.2 Convergence of reconstructed model parameters We demonstrate how the sLDA model reconstructed by Alg. 1 converges to the underlying true model when more observations are available. Fig. 2 presents the 1-norm reconstruction errors of ?, ? and ?. The number of topics k is set to 20 and the number of words per document (i.e., M ) is set 6 MSE (k=20) 0.4 0.2 MSE (k=50) Neg. Log?likeli. (k=20) ref. model Spec?sLDA Gibbs?sLDA 9 0.4 8.9 0.2 Neg. Log?likeli. (k=50) 8.97 8.96 8.95 8.94 0 8.8 0.20.40.60.8 1 2 4 6 8 10 0 0.20.40.60.8 1 2 4 6 8 10 0.20.40.60.8 1 2 4 6 8 10 8.93 0.20.40.60.8 1 2 4 6 8 10 Figure 3: Mean square errors and negative per-word log-likelihood of Alg. 1 and Gibbs sLDA. Each document contains M = 500 words. The X axis denotes the training size (?103 ). PR2 (?=0.01) 0.15 0.1 PR2 (?=0.1) Gibbs?sLDA Spec?sLDA Hybrid 0.15 0.1 0.1 0 ?0.1 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 ?0.05 0 Neg. Log?likeli. (?=0.01) 2 4 7.6 6 8 10 ?0.2 0 Gibbs?sLDA Spec?sLDA Hybrid 2 4 7.8 7.6 8 10 Gibbs?sLDA Spec?sLDA Hybrid 8 7.5 6 Neg. Log?likeli. (?=1.0) Neg. Log?likeli. (?=0.1) 7.8 Gibbs?sLDA Spec?sLDA Hybrid 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.4 0 Gibbs?sLDA Spec?sLDA Hybrid 0.05 0.05 0 PR2 (?=1.0) Gibbs?sLDA Spec?sLDA Hybrid 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 7.4 0 2 4 6 8 10 Figure 4: pR2 scores and negative per-word log-likelihood. The X axis indicates the number of topics. Error bars indicate the standard deviation of 5-fold cross-validation. to 250 and 500. Since Spectral-sLDA can only recover topic distributions up to a permutation over b to find an optimal permutation. [k], a minimum weighted graph match was computed on O and O Fig. 2 shows that the reconstruction errors for all the parameters go down rapidly as we obtain more documents. Furthermore, though Theorem 1 does not involve the number of words per document, the simulation results demonstrate a significant improvement when more words are observed in each document, which is a nice complement for the theoretical analysis. 5.3 Prediction accuracy and per-word likelihood We compare the prediction accuracy and per-word likelihood of Spectral-sLDA and Gibbs-sLDA on both synthetic and real-world datasets. On the synthetic dataset, the regression error is measured by the mean square error (MSE), and the per-word log-likelihood is defined as log2 p(w|h, O) = PK log2 k=1 p(w|z = k, O)p(z = k|h). The hyper-parameters used in our Gibbs sampling implementation are the same with the ones used to generate the datasets. Fig. 3 shows that Spectral-sLDA consistently outperforms Gibbs-sLDA. Our algorithm also enjoys the advantage of being less variable, as indicated by the curve and error bars. Moreover, when the number of training documents is sufficiently large, the performance of the reconstructed model is very close to the underlying true model2 , which implies that Alg. 1 can correctly identify an sLDA model from its observations, therefore supporting our theory. We also test both algorithms on the large-scale Amazon movie review dataset. The quality of the 2 2 prediction is assessed P with predictive P R (pR 2) [8], a normalized version of MSE, which is defined 2 2 as pR , 1 ? ( i (yi ? ybi ) )/( i (yi ? y?) ), where ybi is the estimate, yi is the truth, and y? is the average true value. We report the results under various settings of ? and k in Fig. 4, with the ? hyper-parameter of Gibbs-sLDA selected via cross-validation on a smaller subset of documents. Apart from Gibbs-sLDA and Spectral-sLDA, we also test the performance of a hybrid algorithm which performs Gibbs sampling using models reconstructed by Spectral-sLDA as initializations. Fig. 4 shows that in general Spectral-sLDA does not perform as well as Gibbs sampling. One possible reason is that real-world datasets are not exact i.i.d. samples from an underlying sLDA model. However, a significant improvement can be observed when the Gibbs sampler is initialized with models reconstructed by Spectral-sLDA instead of random initializations. This is because Spectral-sLDA help avoid the local optimum problem of local search methods like Gibbs sampling. Similar improvements for spectral methods were also observed in previous papers [10]. 2 Due to the randomness in the data generating process, the true model has a non-zero prediction error. 7 Table 1: Training time of Gibbs-sLDA and Spectral-sLDA, measured in minutes. k is the number of topics and n is the number of documents used in training. n(?104 ) Gibbs-sLDA Spec-sLDA 1 0.6 1.5 5 3.0 1.6 k = 10 10 50 6.0 30.5 1.7 2.9 100 61.1 4.3 1 2.9 3.1 5 14.3 3.6 k = 50 10 50 28.2 145.4 4.3 9.5 100 281.8 16.2 Table 2: Prediction accuracy and per-word log-likelihood of Gibbs-sLDA and the hybrid algorithm. The initialization solution is obtained by running Alg. 1 on a collection of 1 million documents, while n is the number of documents used in Gibbs sampling. k = 8 topics are used. log10 n Gibbs-sLDA Hybrid 3 0.00 (0.01) 0.02 (0.01) predictive R2 4 5 0.04 0.11 (0.02) (0.02) 0.17 0.18 (0.03) (0.03) 6 0.14 (0.01) 0.18 (0.03) Negative per-word log-likelihood 3 4 5 6 7.72 7.55 7.45 7.42 (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) 7.70 7.49 7.40 7.36 (0.01) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) Note that for k > 8 the performance of Spectral-sLDA significantly deteriorates. This phenomenon can be explained by the nature of Spectral-sLDA itself: one crucial step in Alg. 1 is to whiten the c2 , which is only possible when the underlying topic matrix O has full rank. empirical moment M c2 when the underlying model For the Amazon movie review dataset, it is impossible to whiten M contains more than 8 topics. This interesting observation shows that the Spectral-sLDA algorithm can be used for model selection to avoid overfitting by using too many topics. 5.4 Time efficiency The proposed spectral recovery algorithm is very time efficient because it avoids time-consuming iterative steps in traditional inference and sampling methods. Furthermore, empirical moment computation, the most time-consuming part in Alg. 1, consists of only elementary operations and could be easily optimized. Table 1 compares the training time of Gibbs-sLDA and Spectral-sLDA and shows that our proposed algorithm is over 15 times faster than Gibbs sampling, especially for large document collections. Although both algorithms are implemented in a single-threading manner, Spectral-sLDA is very easy to parallelize because unlike iterative local search methods, the moment computation step in Alg. 1 does not require much communication or synchronization. There might be concerns about the claimed time efficiency, however, because significant performance improvements could only be observed when Spectral-sLDA is used together with GibbssLDA, and the Gibbs sampling step might slow down the entire procedure. To see why this is not the case, we show in Table 2 that in order to obtain high-quality models and predictions, only a very small collection of documents are needed after model reconstruction of Alg. 1. In contrast, Gibbs-sLDA with random initialization requires more data to get reasonable performances. To get a more intuitive idea of how fast our proposed method is, we combine Tables 1 and 2 to see that by doing Spectral-sLDA on 106 documents and then post-processing the reconstructed models using Gibbs sampling on only 104 documents, we obtain a pR2 score of 0.17 in 5.8 minutes, while Gibbs-sLDA takes over an hour to process a million documents with a pR2 score of only 0.14. Similarly, the hybrid method takes only 10 minutes to get a per-word likelihood comparable to the Gibbs sampling algorithm that requires more than an hour running time. 6 Conclusion We propose a novel spectral decomposition based method to reconstruct supervised LDA models from labeled documents. Although our work has mainly focused on tensor decomposition based algorithms, it is an interesting problem whether NMF based methods could also be applied to obtain better sample complexity bound and superior performance in practice for supervised topic models. Acknowledgement The work was done when Y.W. was at Tsinghua. The work is supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2013CB329403), National NSF of China (Nos. 61322308, 61332007), and Tsinghua University Initiative Scientific Research Program (No. 20121088071). 8 References [1] A. Anandkumar, D. Foster, D. Hsu, S. Kakade, and Y.-K. Liu. Two SVDs suffice: Spectral decompositions for probabilistic topic modeling and latent Dirichlet allocatoin. arXiv:1204.6703, 2012. [2] A. Anandkumar, R. Ge, D. Hsu, S. Kakade, and M. Telgarsky. Tensor decompositions for learning latent variable models. arXiv:1210:7559, 2012. [3] A. Anandkumar, D. Hsu, and S. Kakade. A method of moments for mixture models and hidden Markov models. arXiv:1203.0683, 2012. [4] S. Arora, R. Ge, Y. Halpern, D. Mimno, and A. Moitra. A practical algorithm for topic modeling with provable guarantees. In ICML, 2013. [5] S. Arora, R. Ge, R. Kannan, and A. Moitra. Computing a nonnegative matrix factorization provably. In STOC, 2012. [6] S. Arora, R. Ge, and A. Moitra. Learning topic models-going beyond SVD. In FOCS, 2012. [7] V. Bittorf, B. Recht, C. Re, and J. Tropp. Factoring nonnegative matrices with linear programs. In NIPS, 2012. [8] D. Blei and J. McAuliffe. Supervised topic models. In NIPS, 2007. [9] D. Blei, A. Ng, and M. Jordan. Latent Dirichlet allocation. Journal of Machine Learning Research, (3):993?1022, 2003. [10] A. Chaganty and P. Liang. Spectral experts for estimating mixtures of linear regressions. In ICML, 2013. [11] S. Cohen and M. Collins. Tensor decomposition for fast parsing with latent-variable PCFGs. In NIPS, 2012. [12] M. Hoffman, F. R. Bach, and D. M. Blei. Online learning for latent Dirichlet allocation. In NIPS, 2010. [13] J. Kruskal. Three-way arrays: Rank and uniqueness of trilinear decompositions, with applications to arithmetic complexity and statistics. Linear Algebra and its Applications, 18(2):95? 138, 1977. [14] S. Lacoste-Julien, F. Sha, and M. Jordan. DiscLDA: Discriminative learning for dimensionality reduction and classification. In NIPS, 2008. [15] S. Leurgans, R. Ross, and R. Abel. A decomposition for three-way arrays. SIAM Journal on Matrix Analysis and Applications, 14(4):1064?1083, 1993. [16] J. McAuley and J. Leskovec. From amateurs to connoisseus: Modeling the evolution of user expertise through online reviews. In WWW, 2013. [17] A. Moitra. Algorithmic aspects of machine learning. 2014. [18] I. Porteous, D. Newman, A. Ihler, A. Asuncion, P. Smyth, and M. Welling. Fast collapsed Gibbs sampling for latent Dirichlet allocation. In SIGKDD, 2008. [19] R. Redner and H. Walker. Mixture densities, maximum likelihood and the EM algorithm. SIAM Review, 26(2):195?239, 1984. [20] M. Steyvers and T. Griffiths. Latent semantic analysis: a road to meaning, chapter Probabilistic topic models. Laurence Erlbaum, 2007. [21] C. Wang, D. Blei, and F.-F. Li. Simultaneous image classification and annotation. In CVPR, 2009. [22] J. Zhu, A. Ahmed, and E. Xing. MedLDA: Maximum margin supervised topic models. Journal of Machine Learning Research, (13):2237?2278, 2012. [23] J. Zhu, N. Chen, H. Perkins, and B. Zhang. Gibbs max-margin topic models with data augmentation. Journal of Machine Learning Research, (15):1073?1110, 2014. [24] J. Zhu and E. Xing. Sparse topic coding. In UAI, 2011. 9
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Spectral Learning of Mixture of Hidden Markov Models [ ? Y. Cem Subakan , Johannes Traa] , Paris Smaragdis[,],\ Department of Computer Science, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ] Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign \ Adobe Systems, Inc. {subakan2, traa2, paris}@illinois.edu [ Abstract In this paper, we propose a learning approach for the Mixture of Hidden Markov Models (MHMM) based on the Method of Moments (MoM). Computational advantages of MoM make MHMM learning amenable for large data sets. It is not possible to directly learn an MHMM with existing learning approaches, mainly due to a permutation ambiguity in the estimation process. We show that it is possible to resolve this ambiguity using the spectral properties of a global transition matrix even in the presence of estimation noise. We demonstrate the validity of our approach on synthetic and real data. 1 Introduction Method of Moments (MoM) based algorithms [1, 2, 3] for learning latent variable models have recently become popular in the machine learning community. They provide uniqueness guarantees in parameter estimation and are a computationally lighter alternative compared to more traditional maximum likelihood approaches. The main reason behind the computational advantage is that once the moment expressions are acquired, the rest of the learning work amounts to factorizing a moment matrix whose size is independent of the number of data items. However, it is unclear how to use these algorithms for more complicated models such as Mixture of Hidden Markov Models (MHMM). MHMM [4] is a useful model for clustering sequences, and has various applications [5, 6, 7]. The E-step of the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm for an MHMM requires running forwardbackward message passing along the latent state chain for each sequence in the dataset in every EM iteration. For this reason, if the number of sequences in the dataset is large, EM can be computationally prohibitive. In this paper, we propose a learning algorithm based on the method of moments for MHMM. We use the fact that an MHMM can be expressed as an HMM with block diagonal transition matrix. Having made that observation, we use an existing MoM algorithm to learn the parameters up to a permutation ambiguity. However, this doesn?t recover the parameters of the individual HMMs. We exploit the spectral properties of the global transition matrix to estimate a de-permutation mapping that enables us to recover the parameters of the individual HMMs. We also specify a method that can recover the number of HMMs under several spectral conditions. 2 2.1 Model Definitions Hidden Markov Model In a Hidden Markov Model (HMM), an observed sequence x = x1:T = {x1 , . . . , xt , . . . , xT } with xt ? RL is generated conditioned on a latent Markov chain r = r1:T = {r1 , . . . , rt , . . . , rT }, with 1 rt ? {1, . . . M }. The HMM is parameterized by an emission matrix O ? RL?M , a transition matrix A ? RM ?M and an initial state distribution ? ? RM . Given the model parameters ? = (O, A, ?), the likelihood of an observation sequence x1:T is defined as follows: p(x1:T |?) = X p(x1:T , r1:T |?) = r1:T T XY p(xt |rt , O) p(rt |rt?1 , A) r1:T t=1 =1> M A diag(p(xT | :, O)) ? ? ? A diag(p(x1 | :, O)) ? = 1> M T Y ! Adiag(O(xt )) ?, (1) t=1 where 1M ? RM is a column vector of ones, we have switched from index notation to matrix notation in the second line such that summations are embedded in matrix multiplications, and we use the MATLAB colon notation to pick a row/column of a matrix. Note that O(xt ) := p(xt | :, O). The model parameters are defined as follows: ? ?(u) = p(r1 = u|r0 ) = p(r1 = u) initial latent state distribution ? A(u, v) = p(rt = u|rt?1 = v), t ? 2 latent state transition matrix ? O(:, u) = E[xt |rt = u] emission matrix The choice of the observation model p(xt |rt ) determines what the columns of O correspond to: ? Gaussian: p(xt |rt = u) = N (xt ; ?u , ? 2 ) ? O(:, u) = E[xt |rt = u] = ?u . ? Poisson: p(xt |rt = u) = PO(xt ; ?u ) ? O(:, u) = E[xt |rt = u] = ?u . ? Multinomial: p(xt |rt = u) = Mult(xt ; pu , S) ? O(:, u) = E[xt |rt = u] = pu . The first model is a multivariate, isotropic Gaussian with mean ?u ? RL and covariance ? 2 I ? RL?L . The second distribution is Poisson with intensity parameter ?u ? RL . This choice is particularly useful for counts data. The last density is a multinomial distribution with parameter pu ? RL and number of draws S. 2.2 Mixture of HMMs The Mixture of HMMs (MHMM) is a useful model for clustering sequences where each sequence is modeled by one of K HMMs. It is parameterized by K emission matrices Ok ? RL?M , K transition matrices1 Ak ? RM ?M , and K initial state distributions ?k ? RM as well as a cluster prior probability distribution ? ? RK . Given the model parameters ?1:K = (O1:K , A1:K , ?1:K , ?), the likelihood of an observation sequence xn = {x1,n , x2,n , . . . , xTn ,n } is computed as a convex combination of the likelihood of K HMMs: p(xn |?1:K ) = K X p(hn = k)p(xn |hn = k, ?k ) = k=1 = = K X ?k Tn X Y r1:Tn ,n t=1 K X ( ?k 1> J Tn Y X ?k k=1 k=1 k=1 K X p(xn , rn |hn = k, ?k ) r1:Tn ,n p(xt,n |rt,n , hn = k, Ok )p(rt,n |rt?1,n , hn = k, Ak ) ! ) Ak diag(Ok (xt,n )) ?k , (2) t=1 where hn ? {1, 2, . . . , K} is the latent cluster indicator, rn = {r1,n , r2,n , . . . , rTn ,n } is the latent state sequence for the observed sequence xn , and Ok (xt,n ) is a shorthand for p(xt,n | :, hn = k, Ok ). Note that if a sequence is assigned to the k th cluster (hn = k), the corresponding HMM parameters ?k = (Ak , Ok , ?k ) are used to generate it. 1 Without loss of generality, the number of hidden states for each HMM is taken to be M to keep the notation uncluttered. 2 3 Spectral Learning for MHMMs Traditionally, the parameters of an MHMM are learned with the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. One drawback of EM is that it requires a good initialization. Another issue is its computational requirements. In every iteration, one has to perform forward-backward message passing for every sequence, resulting in a computationally expensive process, especially when dealing with large datasets. The proposed MoM approach avoids the issues associated with EM by leveraging the information in various moments computed from the data. Given these moments, which can be computed efficiently, the computation time of the learning algorithm is independent of the amount of data (number of sequences and their lengths). Our approach is mainly based on the observation that an MHMM can be seen as a single HMM with a block-diagonal transition matrix. We will first establish this proposition and discuss its implications. Then, we will describe the proposed learning algorithm. 3.1 MHMM as an HMM with a special structure Lemma 1: An MHMM with local parameters ?1:K = (O1:K , A1:K , ?1:K , ?) is an HMM with global parame? A, ? ??), where: ters ?? = (O, ? ? ? ? ?1 ?1 A1 0 . . . 0 ? ?2 ?2 ? ? 0 A2 . . . 0 ? ? = [O1 O2 . . . OK ] , A? = ? ? , ?? = ? . ? . (3) O .. ? ? .. ? ? . 0 0 . . . AK ?K ?K Proof: Consider the MHMM likelihood for a sequence xn : ! ) ( Tn K Y X > Ak diag(Ok (xt )) ?k p(xn |?1:K ) = ?k 1M (4) t=1 k=1 ? ?? ? ?1 ?1 0 0 ? ? ? ?2 ?2 ? ? ? diag([O1 O2 . . . OK ] (xt ))? ? . ? ? =1> MK ? ? ? ? .. ? t=1 0 0 . . . AK ?K ?K ! Tn Y ? t )) ??, =1> A? diag(O(x MK ? Tn Y ? A1 0 . . . ? 0 A2 . . . ? .. ? . t=1 ? t ). We conclude that the MHMM and an HMM with paramwhere [O1 O2 . . . OK ] (xt ) := O(x eters ?? describe equivalent probabilistic models.  We see that the state space of an MHMM consists of K disconnected regimes. For each sequence sampled from the MHMM, the first latent state r1 determines what region the entire latent state sequence lies in. 3.2 Learning an MHMM by learning an HMM In the previous section, we showed the equivalence between the MHMM and an HMM with a blockdiagonal transition matrix. Therefore, it should be possible to use an HMM learning algorithm such as spectral learning for HMMs [1, 2] to find the parameters of an MHMM. However, the true global parameters ?? are recovered inexactly due to noise : ?? ? ?? and state indexing ambiguity via a ? P , A?P permutation mapping P: ?? ? ??P . Consequently, the parameters ??P = (O ?P ) obtained  ,? from the learning algorithm are in the following form: ?P = O ? P > , O  ? > A?P  = P A P , 3 ??P = P ?? , (5) where P is the permutation matrix corresponding to the permutation mapping P. The presence of the permutation is a fundamental nuisance for MHMM learning since it causes parameter mixing between the individual HMMs. The global parameters are permuted such that it becomes impossible to identify individual cluster parameters. A brute force search to find P requires (M K)! trials, which is infeasible for anything but very small M K. Nevertheless, it is possible to e using the spectral properties of the global transition efficiently find a depermutation mapping P ? Our ultimate goal in this section is to undo the effect of P by estimating a P e that makes matrix A. A?P block diagonal despite the presence of the estimation noise .  3.2.1 Spectral properties of the global transition matrix Lemma 2: Assuming that each of the local transition matrices A1:K has only one eigenvalue which is 1, the global transition matrix A? has K eigenvalues which are 1. Proof: ? ? ?? ?? ??1 ? V1 . . . 0 ?1 . . . 0 V1 . . . 0 V1 ?1 V1?1 . . . 0 ? ? ?? ?? ? ? .. A? = ? ? = ? 0 ... 0 ? ? 0 ... 0 ? ? 0 ... 0 ? , . 0 0 0 0 VK 0 0 ?K 0 0 VK 0 0 VK ?K VK?1 | {z } ? V? ?1 V? ? where Vk ?k Vk?1 is the eigenvalue decomposition of Ak with Vk as eigenvectors, and ?k as a diagonal matrix with eigenvalues on the diagonal. The eigenvalues of A1:K appear unaltered in the ? and consequently A? has K eigenvalues which are 1. eigenvalue decomposition of A,  Corollary 1:   lim A?e = v?1 1> ?K 1> ?k 1> M , M ... v M ... v e?? (6) where v?k = [0> . . . vk> . . . 0> ]> and vk is the stationary distribution of Ak , ?k ? {1, . . . , K}. ? ? 1 0 ... 0 ?0 0 . . . 0? ?1 ?V = v k 1> Proof: lim (Vk ?k Vk?1 )e = lim Vk ?ek Vk?1 = Vk ? .. M. ? e?? e?? . ? k 0 0 ... 0 The third step follows because there is only one eigenvalue with magnitude 1. Since multiplying A? by itself amounts to multiplying the corresponding diagonal blocks, we have the structure in (6).  Note that equation (6) points out that the matrix lime?? A?e consists of K blocks of size M ? M where the k?th block is vk 1> M . A straightforward algorithm can now be developed for making A?P block diagonal. Since the eigenvalue decomposition is invariant under permutation, A? and A?P have the same eigenvalues and eigenvectors. As e ? ?, K clusters of columns appear in (A?P )e . Thus, A?P can be made block-diagonal by clustering the columns of (A?P )? . This idea is illustrated in the middle row of Figure 1. Note that, in an actual implementation, one would ? to form use a low-rank reconstruction by zeroing-out the eigenvalues that are not equal to 1 in ? ? P )r (V? P )?1 = (A?P )? , where (? ? P )r ? RM K?M K is a diagonal matrix with only (A?P )r := V? P (? K non-zero entries, corresponding to the eigenvalues which are 1. This algorithm corresponds to the noiseless case A?P . In practice, the output of the learning algorithm ?P e is A?P  and the clear structure in Equation (6) no longer holds in (A ) , as e ? ?, as illustrated in the bottom row of Figure 1. We can see that the three-cluster structure no longer holds for large e. Instead, the columns of the transition matrix converge to a global stationary distribution. 3.2.2 Estimating the permutation in the presence of noise In the general case with noise , we lose the spectral property that the global transition matrix has K eigenvalues which are 1. Consequently, the algorithm described in Section 3.2.1 cannot be 4 e: 1 e: 5 e: 10 e: 20 e: 1 rt+1 e: 5 e: 10 e: 20 rt rt rt rt+1 rt rt rt rt rt e: 1 e: 5 e: 10 e: 20 rt rt rt rt rt+1 Figure 1: (Top left) Block-diagonal transition matrix after e-fold exponentiation. Each block converge to its own stationary distribution. (Top right) Same as above with permutation. (Bottom) Corrupted and permuted transition matrix after exponentiation. The true number K = 3 of HMMs is clear for intermediate values of e, but as e ? ?, the columns of the matrix converge to a global stationary distribution. applied directly to make A?P  block diagonal. In practice, the estimated transition matrix has only e one eigenvalue with unit magnitude and lime?? (A?P  ) converges to a global stationary distribution. e and the number of HMM However, if the noise  is sufficiently small, a depermutation mapping P clusters K can be successfully estimated. We now specify the spectral conditions for this. Definition 1: We denote ?Gk := ?k ?1,k for k ? {1, . . . , K} as the global, noisy eigenvalues with |?Gk | ? |?Gk+1 |, ?k ? {1, . . . , K ? 1}, where ?1,k is the original eigenvalue of the k th cluster with magnitude 1 and ?k is the noise that acts on that eigenvalue (note that ?1 = 1). We denote ?L j,k := ?j,k ?j,k for j ? {2, . . . , M } and k ? {1, . . . , K} as the local, noisy eigenvalues with L |?L j,k | ? |?j+1,k |, ?k ? {1, . . . , K} and ?j ? {1, . . . , M ? 1}, where ?j,k is the original eigenvalue th with the j largest magnitude in the k th cluster, and ?j,k is the noise that acts on that eigenvalue. Definition 2: The low-rank eigendecomposition of the estimated transition matrix A?P  is defined as Ar := V ?r V ?1 , where V is a matrix with eigenvectors in the columns and ?r is a diagonal matrix with eigenvalues ?G1:K in the first K entries. Conjecture 1: r ?P |?L 2,k |, then A can be formed using the eigen-decomposition of A . Then, ? with high probability, kAr ? Ar kF ? O(1/ T N ), where T N is the total number of observed vectors. If |?GK | > max k?{1,...,K} Justification: kAr ? Ar kF = kAr ? A + A ? Ar kF ?kAr ? AkF + kA ? Ar kF =kA ? Ar kF + kA ? A + Ar?kF ?kA ? Ar kF + kAr?kF + kA ? A kF ? ? ?2KM + O(1/ T N ) = O(1/ T N ), w.h.p., where A is used for A?P to reduce the notation clutter (and similarly Ar for (A?P )r and so on), we used the triangle inequality for the first and second inequalities and Ar? = V ?r?V ?1 , where ?r? is a diagonal matrix of eigenvalues with the first K diagonal entries equal to zero (complement of ?r ). For the last inequality, we used the fact that A ? RM K?M K has entries in the interval [0, 1] and we used the sample complexity result from [1]. The bound specified in [1] is for a mixture model, but since the two models are similar and the estimation procedure is almost identical, we are reusing it. We believe that further analysis of the spectral learning algorithm is out of the scope of this paper, so we leave this proposition as a conjecture.  Conjecture 1 asserts that, if we have enough data we should obtain an estimate Ar close to Ar in the squared error sense. Furthermore, if the following mixing rate condition is satisfied, we will be able to identify the number of clusters K from the data. 5 Spectral Longevity of Eigenvalues No. of Significant Eigenvalues Spectral Longevity 9 8 7 6 K 0 5 4 3 2 1 10 20 10 8 6 4 2 0 1 2 e 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Eigenvalue Index Figure 2: (Left) Number of significant eigenvalues across exponentiations. Longevity L?? K 0 with respect to the eigenvalue index K 0 . (Right) Spectral ek denote the k th largest eigenvalue (in decreasing order) of the estimated transiDefinition 3: Let ? P ? tion matrix A . We define the quantity, "P 0 # "P 0 #! ? K K ?1 ? e ? l |e X | ? | ? | l l=1 l=1 L?? K 0 := , (7) PM K ? e > 1 ? ? ? PM K ? e > 1 ? ? 0 0 e=1 l0 =1 |?l | l0 =1 |?l | ? K 0 . The square brackets [.] denote an indicator function which outputs as the spectral longevity of ? 1 if the argument is true and 0 otherwise, and ? is a small number such as machine epsilon. Lemma 3: If |?GK | > max k?{1,...,K} |?L 2,k | and arg maxK 0 e 0 |2 |? K e 0 ||? e 0 | |? K +1 K ?1 = K, for K 0 ? {2, 3, . . . , M K ? 1}, then arg maxK 0 L?? K 0 = K. Proof: The first condition ensures that the top K eigenvalues are global eigenvalues. The second condition is about the convergence rates of the two ratios in equation (7). The first indicator function has the following summation inside: PK 0 ?1 ? e PK 0 ? e ? 0e l=1 |?l | + |?K | l=1 |?l | . PM K ? e = PK 0 ?1 ? e K ? 0e ? 0 e PM ?0e 0 0 l0 =1 |?l | l0 =1 |?l | + |?K | + |?K +1 | + l0 =K 0 +2 |?l | The rate at which this term goes to 1 is determined by the spectral gap |?K 0 |/|?K 0 +1 |. The smaller this ratio is, the faster the term (it is non-decreasing w.r.t. e) converges to 1. For the second indicator function inside L?? K 0 , we can do the same analysis and see that the convergence rate is again determined by the gap |?K 0 ?1 |/|?K 0 |. The ratio of the two spectral gaps determines the spectral longevity. Hence, for the K 0 with largest ratio e 0 |2 |? K e 0 ||? e 0 |, |? K +1 K ?1 we have arg maxK 0 L?? K 0 = K.  Lemma 3 tells us the following. If the estimated transition matrix A?P  is not too noisy, we can determine the number of clusters by choosing the value of K 0 such that it maximizes L?? K 0 . This corresponds to exponentiating the sorted eigenvalues in a finite range, and recording the number of non-negligible eigenvalues. This is depicted in Figure 2. 3.3 Proposed Algorithm In previous sections, we have shown that the permutation caused by the MoM estimation procedure can be undone, and we have proposed a way to estimate the number of clusters K. We summarize the whole procedure in Algorithm 1. 4 4.1 Experiments Effect of noise on depermutation algorithm We have tested the algorithm?s performance with respect to amount of data. We used the parameters K = 3, M = 4, L = 20, and we have 2 sequences with length T for each cluster. We used a Gaussian observation model with unit observation variance and the columns of the emission matrices O1:K were drawn from zero mean spherical Gaussian with variance 2. Results for 10 uniformly 6 Algorithm 1 Spectral Learning for Mixture of Hidden Markov Models Inputs: x1:N :Sequences, M  K : total number of states of global HMM. b b,A b b : MHMM parameters Output: ?b = O 1:K 1:K Method of Moments Parameter Estimation ? P , A?P (O  ) = HMM MethodofMoments (x1:N , M K) Depermutation Find eigenvalues of A?P  Exponentiate eigenvalues for each discrete value e in a sufficiently large range. b as the eigenvalue with largest longevity. Identify K b reconstruction Ar via eigendecomposition. Compute rank-K b clusters to find a depermutation mapping P e via cluster labels. Cluster the columns of Ar with K P P ?  and A? according to P. e Depermute O b ? P and A?P Form ? by choosing corresponding blocks from depermuted O  . b Return ?. Euclidean Distance vs Sequence Length Euc. Dist. 2 1 0 10 120 230 340 450 560 670 3 3 780 890 1000 T 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Figure 3: Top row: Euclidean distance vs T . Second row: Noisy input matrix. Third row: Noisy reconstruction Ar . Bottom row: Depermuted matrix, numbers at the bottom indicate the estimated number of clusters. spaced sequence lengths from 10 to 1000 are shown in Figure 3. On the top row, we plot the total error (from centroid to point) obtained after fitting k-means with true number of HMM clusters. We can see that the correct number of clusters K = 3 as well as the block-diagonal structure of the transition matrix is correctly recovered even in the case where T = 20. 4.2 Amount of data vs accuracy and speed We have compared clustering accuracies of EM and our approach on data sampled from a Gaussian emission MHMM. Means of each state of each cluster is drawn from a zero mean unit variance Gaussian, and observation covariance is spherical with variance 2. We set L = 20, K = 5, M = 3. We used uniform mixing proportions and uniform initial state distribution. We evaluated the clustering accuracies for 10 uniformly spaced sequence lengths (every sequence has the same length) between 20 and 200, and 10 uniformly spaced number of sequences between 1 and 100 for each cluster. The results are shown in Figure 4. Although EM seems to provide higher accuracy on 7 Accuracy (%) of EM algorithm 7 10 13 15 17 20 22 25 60 100 88 81 100100100100100100 60 80 100100100100 80 80 100100 3 5 7 9 12 14 16 18 20 23 78 80 95 100 98 100100100100 79 100 78 60 80 80 100100 80 100100100100 78 1 4 6 8 11 13 14 16 18 20 20 62 86 100100100 78 100100 80 80 100100100100100100100 80 100 2 4 6 7 9 11 13 14 16 18 56 80 77 82 81 60 100 88 100100 77 56 60 100100100100100100100100100 56 1 4 5 6 8 10 11 13 14 16 80 100 71 100100100100100100100 1 3 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 34 80 83 66 79 97 69 100 80 78 100 34 40 100100100100100100100100100 34 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 80 82 97 65 61 69 69 88 82 80 60 100100100100100100100100100 1 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 12 20 65 73 76 78 77 77 78 63 86 12 80 100100100100100100100100100 12 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 1 20 53 68 58 73 79 76 88 58 78 10 31 73 116 158 200 T 1 60 100100100100100100100100100 10 31 73 116 158 200 T 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 10 31 73 116 158 200 T 100 75 614 1616 2433 2423 2404 3332 5849 4915 6890 56 573 1056 1418 3074 2030 3603 5137 4247 8719 47 846 1093 1434 1851 3258 2396 4330 4133 3629 56 606 969 1873 1646 1892 1861 2311 3914 3609 33 367 550 1241 1323 1098 1943 2662 4431 3920 19 313 724 703 1301 1477 1683 2457 3761 1875 34 187 370 529 734 970 1106 2020 2597 1879 16 178 296 378 754 662 1040 1335 1664 2046 12 5 138 235 427 290 444 588 791 865 855 1 1 27 78 N/K 5 N/K 100 2 80 80 80 85 80 84 100100100 87 Run time (s) of EM algorithm Run time (s) of spectral algorithm 100 40 100 80 100100100100 80 100100 N/K N/K Accuracy (%) of spectral algorithm 100 40 82 100100100100100 75 100100 56 34 10 31 54 89 73 165 172 229 266 233 216 116 T 158 200 Figure 4: Clustering accuracy and run time results for synthetic data experiments. Table 1: Clustering accuracies for handwritten digit dataset. Algorithm 1v2 1v3 1v4 2v3 2v4 2v5 Spectral EM init. w/ Spectral EM init. at Random 100 100 96 70 99 99 54 100 98 83 96 83 99 100 100 99 100 100 regions where we have less data, spectral algorithm is much faster. Note that, in spectral algorithm we include the time spent in moment computation. We used four restarts for EM, and take the result with highest likelihood, and used an automatic stopping criterion. 4.3 Real data experiment We ran an experiment on the handwritten character trajectory dataset from the UCI machine learning repository [8]. We formed pairs of characters and compared the clustering results for three algorithms: the proposed spectral learning approach, EM initialized at random, and EM initialized with MoM algorithm as explored in [9]. We take the maximum accuracy of EM over 5 random initializations in the third row. We set the algorithm parameters to K = 2 and M = 4. There are 140 sequences of average length 100 per class. In the original data, L = 3, but to apply MoM learning, we require that M K < L. To achieve this, we transformed the data vectors with a cubic polynomial feature transformation such that L = 10 (this is the same transformation that corresponds to a polynomial kernel). The results from these trials are shown in Table 1. We can see that although spectral learning doesn?t always surpass randomly initialized EM on its own, it does serve as a very good initialization scheme. 5 Conclusions and future work We have developed a method of moments based algorithm for learning mixture of HMMs. Our experimental results show that our approach is computationally much cheaper than EM, while being comparable in accuracy. Our real data experiment also show that our approach can be used as a good initialization scheme for EM. As future work, it would be interesting to apply the proposed approach on other hierarchical latent variable models. Acknowledgements: We would like to thank Taylan Cemgil, David Forsyth and John Hershey for valuable discussions. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 1319708. References [1] A. Anandkumar, D. Hsu, and S.M. Kakade. A method of moments for mixture models and hidden markov models. In COLT, 2012. [2] A. Anandkumar, R. Ge, D. Hsu, S.M. Kakade, and M. Telgarsky. Tensor decompositions for learning latent variable models. arXiv:1210.7559v2, 2012. 8 [3] Daniel Hsu, Sham M. Kakade, and Tong Zhang. A spectral algorithm for learning hidden markov models a spectral algorithm for learning hidden markov models. Journal of Computer and System Sciences, (1460-1480), 2009. [4] P. Smyth. Clustering sequences with hidden markov models. In Advances in neural information processing systems, 1997. [5] Yuting Qi, J.W. Paisley, and L. Carin. Music analysis using hidden markov mixture models. Signal Processing, IEEE Transactions on, 55(11):5209 ?5224, nov. 2007. [6] A. Jonathan, S. Sclaroff, G. Kollios, and V. Pavlovic. Discovering clusters in motion time-series data. In CVPR, 2003. [7] Tim Oates, Laura Firoiu, and Paul R. Cohen. Clustering time series with hidden markov models and dynamic time warping. In In Proceedings of the IJCAI-99 Workshop on Neural, Symbolic and Reinforcement Learning Methods for Sequence Learning, pages 17?21, 1999. [8] K. Bache and M. Lichman. UCI machine learning repository, 2013. [9] Arun Chaganty and Percy Liang. Spectral experts for estimating mixtures of linear regressions. In International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2013. 9
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Multi-Scale Spectral Decomposition of Massive Graphs Si Si? Department of Computer Science University of Texas at Austin ssi@cs.utexas.edu Donghyuk Shin? Department of Computer Science University of Texas at Austin dshin@cs.utexas.edu Inderjit S. Dhillon Department of Computer Science University of Texas at Austin inderjit@cs.utexas.edu Beresford N. Parlett Department of Mathematics University of California, Berkeley parlett@math.berkeley.edu Abstract Computing the k dominant eigenvalues and eigenvectors of massive graphs is a key operation in numerous machine learning applications; however, popular solvers suffer from slow convergence, especially when k is reasonably large. In this paper, we propose and analyze a novel multi-scale spectral decomposition method (MSEIGS), which first clusters the graph into smaller clusters whose spectral decomposition can be computed efficiently and independently. We show theoretically as well as empirically that the union of all cluster?s subspaces has significant overlap with the dominant subspace of the original graph, provided that the graph is clustered appropriately. Thus, eigenvectors of the clusters serve as good initializations to a block Lanczos algorithm that is used to compute spectral decomposition of the original graph. We further use hierarchical clustering to speed up the computation and adopt a fast early termination strategy to compute quality approximations. Our method outperforms widely used solvers in terms of convergence speed and approximation quality. Furthermore, our method is naturally parallelizable and exhibits significant speedups in shared-memory parallel settings. For example, on a graph with more than 82 million nodes and 3.6 billion edges, MSEIGS takes less than 3 hours on a single-core machine while Randomized SVD takes more than 6 hours, to obtain a similar approximation of the top-50 eigenvectors. Using 16 cores, we can reduce this time to less than 40 minutes. 1 Introduction Spectral decomposition of large-scale graphs is one of the most informative and fundamental matrix approximations. Specifically, we are interested in the case where the top-k eigenvalues and eigenvectors are needed, where k is in the hundreds. This computation is needed in various machine learning applications such as semi-supervised classification, link prediction and recommender systems. The data for these applications is typically given as sparse graphs containing information about dyadic relationship between entities, e.g., friendship between pairs of users. Supporting the current big data trend, the scale of these graphs is massive and continues to grow rapidly. Moreover, they are also very sparse and often exhibit clustering structure, which should be exploited. However, popular solvers, such as subspace iteration, randomized SVD [7] and the classical Lanczos algorithm [21], are often too slow for very big graphs. A key insight is that the graph often exhibits a clustering structure and the union of all cluster?s subspaces turns out to have significant overlap with the dominant subspace of the original matrix, which ? Equal contribution to the work. 1 is shown both theoretically and empirically. Based on this observation, we propose a novel divideand-conquer approach to compute the spectral decomposition of large and sparse matrices, called MSEIGS, which exploits the clustering structure of the graph and achieves faster convergence than state-of-the-art solvers. In the divide step, MSEIGS employs graph clustering to divide the graph into several clusters that are manageable in size and allow fast computation of the eigendecomposition by standard methods. Then, in the conquer step, eigenvectors of the clusters are combined to initialize the eigendecomposition of the entire matrix via block Lanczos. As shown in our analysis and experiments, MSEIGS converges faster than other methods that do not consider the clustering structure of the graph. To speedup the computation, we further divide the subproblems into smaller ones and construct a hierarchical clustering structure; our framework can then be applied recursively as the algorithm moves from lower levels to upper levels in the hierarchy tree. Moreover, our proposed algorithm is naturally parallelizable as the main steps can be carried out independently for each cluster. On the SDWeb dataset with more than 82 million nodes and 3.6 billion edges, MSEIGS takes only about 2.7 hours on a single-core machine while Matlab?s eigs function takes about 4.2 hours and randomized SVD takes more than 6 hours. Using 16 cores, we can cut this time to less than 40 minutes showing that our algorithm obtains good speedups in shared-memory settings. While our proposed algorithm is capable of computing highly accurate eigenpairs, it can also obtain a much faster approximate eigendecomposition with modest precision by prematurely terminating the algorithm at a certain level in the hierarchy tree. This early termination strategy is particularly useful as it is sufficient in many applications to use an approximate eigendecomposition. We apply MSEIGS and its early termination strategy to two real-world machine learning applications: label propagation for semi-supervised classification and inductive matrix completion for recommender systems. We show that both our methods are much faster than other methods while still attaining good performance. For example, to perform semi-supervised learning using label propagation on the Aloi dataset with 1,000 classes, MSEIGS takes around 800 seconds to obtain an accuracy of 60.03%; MSEIGS with early termination takes less than 200 seconds achieving an accuracy of 58.98%, which is more than 10 times faster than a conjugate gradient based semi-supervised method [10]. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we review some closely related work. We present MSEIGS in Section 3 by describing the single-level case and extending it to the multi-level setting. Experimental results are shown in Section 4 followed by conclusions in Section 5. 2 Related Work The spectral decomposition of large and sparse graphs is a fundamental tool that lies at the core of numerous algorithms in varied machine learning tasks. Practical examples include spectral clustering [19], link prediction in social networks [24], recommender systems with side-information [18], densest k-subgraph problem [20] and graph matching [22]. Most of the existing eigensolvers for sparse matrices employ the single-vector version of iterative algorithms, such as the power method and Lanczos algorithm [21]. The Lanczos algorithm iteratively constructs the basis of the Krylov subspace to obtain the eigendecomposition, which has been extensively investigated and applied in popular eigensolvers, e.g., eigs in Matlab (ARPACK) [14] and PROPACK [12]. However, it is well known that single-vector iterative algorithms can only compute the leading eigenvalue/eigenvector (e.g., power method) or have difficulty in computing multiplicities/clusters of eigenvalues (e.g., Lanczos). In contrast, the block version of iterative algorithms using multiple starting vectors, such as the randomized SVD [7] and block Lanczos [21], can avoid such problems and utilize efficient matrix-matrix operations (e.g., Level 3 BLAS) with better caching behavior. While these are the most commonly used methods to compute the spectral decomposition of a sparse matrix, they do not scale well to large problems, especially when hundreds of eigenvalues/eigenvectors are needed. Furthermore, none of them consider the clustering structure of the sparse graph. One exception is the classical divide and conquer algorithm by [3], which partitions the tridiagonal eigenvalue problem into several smaller problems that are solved separately. Then it combines the solutions of these smaller problems and uses rank-one modification to solve the original problem. However, this method can only be used for tridiagonal matrices and it is unclear how to extend it to general sparse matrices. 3 Multi-Scale Spectral Decomposition Suppose we are given a graph G = (V, E, A), which consists of |V| vertices and |E| edges such that an edge between any two vertices i and j represents their similarity wij . The corresponding adjacency matrix A is a n ? n sparse matrix with (i, j) entry equal to wij if there is an edge between i and j and 0 otherwise. We consider the case where G is an undirected graph, i.e., A is symmetric. Our goal is to efficiently compute the top-k eigenvalues 1 , ? ? ? , k (| 1 | ??? | k |) and their 2 corresponding eigenvectors u1 , u2 , ? ? ? uk of A, which form the best rank-k approximation of A. That is, A ? Uk ?k UkT , where ?k is a k ? k diagonal matrix with the k largest eigenvalues of A and Uk = [u1 , u2 , ? ? ? , uk ] is an n ? k orthonormal matrix. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-scale spectral decomposition method (MSEIGS), which embodies the clustering structure of A to achieve faster convergence. We begin by first describing the single-level version of MSEIGS. 3.1 Single-level division Our proposed multi-scale spectral decomposition algorithm, which can be used as an alternative to Matlab?s eigs function, is based on the divide-and-conquer principle to utilize the clustering structure of the graph. It consists of two main phases: in the divide step, we divide the problem into several smaller subproblems such that each subproblem can be solved efficiently and independently; in the conquer step, we use the solutions from each subproblem as a good initialization for the original problem and achieve faster convergence compared to existing solvers which typically start from random initialization. Divide Step: We first use clustering to partition the sparse matrix A into c2 submatrices as 2 3 2 3 2 3 A11 ? ? ? A1c A11 ? ? ? 0 0 ? ? ? A1c .. 5 , D = 4 .. .. 5 , .. 5 , (1) .. .. .. A = D + = 4 ... = 4 ... . . . . . . . Ac1 ? ? ? Acc 0 ? ? ? Acc Ac1 ? ? ? 0 where each diagonal block Aii is a mi ?mi matrix, D is a block diagonal matrix and is the matrix consisting of all off-diagonal blocks of A. We then compute the dominant r (r ? k) eigenpairs of (i) (i) (i) (i) each diagonal block Aii independently, such that Aii ? Ur ?r (Ur )T , where ?r is a r ? (i) (i) (i) (i) r diagonal matrix with the r dominant eigenvalues of Aii and Ur = [u1 , u2 , ? ? ? , ur ] is an orthonormal matrix with the corresponding eigenvectors. After obtaining the r dominant eigenpairs of each Aii , we can sort all cr eigenvalues from the c diagonal blocks and select the k largest eigenvalues (in terms of magnitude) and the corresponding eigenvectors. More specifically, suppose that we select the top-ki eigenpairs of Aii and construct an (i) (i) (i) (i) (i) mi ? ki orthonormal matrix Uki = [u1 , u2 , ? ? ? , uki ], then we concatenate all Uki ?s and form an n ? k orthonormal matrix ? as (1) (2) (c) ? = U k1 U k2 ? ? ? U kc , (2) P where i ki = k and denotes direct sum, which can be viewed as the sum of the subspaces (i) spanned by Uki . Note that ? is exactly the k dominant eigenvectors of D. After obtaining ?, we can use it as a starting subspace for the eigendecomposition of A in the conquer step. We next show that if we use graph clustering to generate the partition of A in (1), then the space spanned by ? is close to that of Uk , which makes the conquer step more efficient. We use principal angles [15] to measure the closeness of two subspaces. Since ? and Uk are orthonormal matrices, the j-th principal angle between subspaces spanned by ? and Uk is ?j (?, Uk ) = arccos( j ), where j , j = 1, 2, ? ? ? , k, are the singular values of ?T Uk in descending order. In Theorem 3.1, we show that ?(?, Uk ) = diag(?1 (?, Uk ), ? ? ? , ?k (?, Uk )) is related to the matrix . Theorem 3.1. Suppose 1 (D), ? ? ? , n (D) (in descending order of magnitude) are the eigenvalues of D. Assume there is an interval [?, ] and ? 0 such that k+1 (D), ? ? ? , n (D) lies entirely in [?, ] and the k dominant eigenvalues of A, 1 , ? ? ? , k , lie entirely outside of (? ?, + ?), then p k kF k k2 k sin(?(?, Uk ))k2 ? , k sin(?(?, Uk ))kF ? k . ? ? The proof is given in Appendix 6.2. As we can see, ?(?, Uk ) is influenced by , thus we need to find a partition such that k kF is small in order for k sin(?(?, Uk ))kF to be small. Assuming that the graph has clustering structure, we apply graph clustering algorithms to partition A to generate small k kF . In general, the goal of graph clustering is to find clusters such that there are many edges within clusters and only a few between clusters, i.e., make k kF small. Various graph clustering software can be used to generate the partitions, e.g., Graclus [5], Metis [11], Nerstrand [13] and GEM [27]. Figure 1(a) shows a comparison of the cosine values of ?(?, Uk ) with different ? for the CondMat dataset, a collaboration network with 21,362 nodes and 182,628 edges. We compute ? using random partitioning and graph clustering, where we cluster the graph into 4 clusters using Metis and more than 85% of edges appear within clusters. In Figure 1(a), more than 80% of principal angles have cosine values that are greater than 0.9 with graph clustering, whereas this ratio drops to 5% with random partitioning. This illustrates that (1) the effectiveness of graph clustering to reduce ?(?, Uk ); (2) the subspace spanned by ? from graph clustering is close to that of Uk . 3 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 Random Partition Graph Clustering 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.8 ?0.5 0.7 ? i | ? |?i | |? Cosine of principal angles Cosine of principal angles 1 0.9 0.6 0.5 RSVD BlkLan MSEIGS with single level MSEIGS 0.4 0.3 0.2 ?1 ?1.5 RSVD BlkLan MSEIGS with single level MSEIGS ?2 0.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 Rank k (a) 60 70 80 90 100 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 rank k (b) 60 70 80 90 100 ?2.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Rank k (c) Figure 1: (a): cos(?(?, Uk )) with graph clustering and random partition. (b) and (c): comparison of RSVD, BlkLan, MSEIGS with single level and MSEIGS on the CondMat dataset with the same ?k , Uk )), where U ?k consists of the computed top-k number of iterations (5 steps). (b) shows cos(?(U eigenvectors and (c) shows the difference between the computed eigenvalues and the exact ones. Conquer Step: After obtaining ? from the clusters (diagonal blocks) of A, we use ? to initialize the spectral decomposition solver for A. In principle, we can use different solvers such as randomized SVD (RSVD) and block Lanczos (BlkLan). In our divide-and-conquer framework, we focus on using block Lanczos due to its superior performance as compared to RSVD. The basic idea of block Lanczos is to use an n ? b initial matrix V0 to construct the Krylov subspace of A. After j 1 steps of block Lanczos, the j-th Krylov subspace of A is given as Kj (A, V0 ) = span{V0 , AV0 , ? ? ? , Aj 1 V0 }. As the block Lanczos algorithm proceeds, an orthonor? j for Kj (A, V0 ) is generated as well as a block tridiagonal matrix T?j , which is a projecmal basis Q tion of A onto Kj (A, V0 ). Then the Rayleigh-Ritz procedure is applied to compute the approximate eigenpairs of A. More details about the block Lanczos is given in Appendix 6.1. In contrast, RSVD, which is equivalent to subspace iteration with a Gaussian random matrix, constructs a basis for Aj 1 V0 and then restricts A to this subspace to obtain the decomposition. As a consequence, block Lanczos can achieve better performance than RSVD with the same number of iterations. ?k , Uk )) for the CondMat In Figure 1(b), we compare block Lanczos with RSVD in terms of cos(?(U ? dataset, where Uk consists of the approximate k dominant eigenvectors. Similarly in Figure 1(c), we show that the eigenvalues computed by block Lanczos are more closer to the true eigenvalues. In other words, block Lanczos needs less iterations than RSVD to achieve similar accuracy. For the ?k , Uk )) to be 0.99, CondMat dataset, block Lanczos takes 7 iterations to achieve mean of cos(?(U while RSVD takes more than 10 iterations to obtain similar performance. It is worth noting that there are a number of improved versions of block Lanczos [1, 6], and we show in the experiments that our method achieves superior performance even with the simple version of block Lanczos. The single-level version of our proposed MSEIGS algorithm is given in Algorithm 1. Some remarks on Algorithm 1 are in order: (1) kAii kF is likely to be different among clusters and larger clusters tend to have more influence over the spectrum P of the entire matrix. Thus, we select the rank r for each cluster i based on the ratio kAii kF / i kAii kF ; (2) We use a small number of additional eigenvectors in step 4 (similar to RSVD) to improve the effectiveness of block Lanczos; (3) It is time consuming to test convergence of the Ritz pairs in block Lanczos (steps 7, 8 of Algorithm 3 in the Appendix), thus we test convergence after running a few iterations of block Lanczos; (4) Better quality of clustering, i.e., smaller k kF , implies higher accuracy of MSEIGS. We give performance results of MSEIGS with varying cluster quality in Appendix 6.4. From Figures 1(b) and 1(c), we can observe that the single-level MSEIGS performs much better than block Lanczos and RSVD. We can now analyze the approximation quality of Algorithm 1 by first examining the difference between the eigenvalues computed by Algorithm 1 and the exact eigenvalues of A. Theorem 3.2. Let ? 1 ? ? ? ? kq be the approximate eigenvalues obtained after q steps of block Lanczos in Algorithm 1. According to Kaniel-Paige Convergence Theory [23], we have 2 ( 1 i ) tan (?) ? . i ? i ? i+ Tq2 1 ( 11+??ii ) Using Theorem 3.1, we further have 2 ( 1 i )k k2 ? , i ? i ? i+ 1+?i 2 2 Tq 1 ( 1 ?i )(? k k22 ) where Tm (x) is the m-th Chebyshev polynomial of the first kind, ? is the largest principal angle of ?(?, Uk ) and ?i = i i k+1 . 1 4 Next we show the bound of Algorithm 1 in terms of rank-k approximation error. Theorem 3.3. Given a n?n symmetric matrix A, suppose by Algorithm 1, we can approximate its k ?k ? ? k V? T with U ?k = [? ?k ] dominant eigenpairs and form a rank-k approximation, i.e., A ? U u1 , ? ? ? , u k ? ? ? and ?k = diag( 1 , ? ? ? , k ) . The approximation error can be bounded as 1 ? ? 2(q+1) sin2 (?) T ? ? ? kA Uk ?k Vk k2 ? 2kA Ak k2 1 + , 1 sin2 (?) where q is the number of iterations for block Lanczos and Ak is the best rank-k approximation of A. Using Theorem 3.1, we further have 1 ? ? 2(q+1) 2 k k 2 T ?k ? ? k V?k k2 ? 2kA Ak k2 kA U . ? 2 k k22 The proof is given in Appendix 6.3. The above two theorems show that a good initialization is important for block Lanczos. Using Algorithm 1, we will expect a small k k2 and ? (as shown in Figure 1(a)) because it embodies the clustering structure of A and constructs a good initialization. Therefore, our algorithm can have faster convergence compared to block Lanczos with random initialization. The time complexity for Algorithm 1 is O(|E|k + nk 2 ). Algorithm 1: MSEIGS with single level Input : n ? n symmetric sparse matrix A, target rank k and number of clusters c. ?i ), i = 1, ? ? ? , k of A. Output: The approximate dominant k eigenpairs ( ? i , u 1 2 3 4 5 Generate c clusters A11 , ? ? ? , Acc by performing graph clustering on A (e.g., Metis or Graclus). (i) (i) Compute top-r eigenpairs ( j , uj ), j = 1, ? ? ? , r, of Aii using standard eigensolvers. (1) (c) Select the top-k eigenvalues and their eigenvectors from the c clusters to obtain Uk1 , ? ? ? , Ukc . (1) (c) P Form block diagonal matrix ? = Uk1 ? ? ? Ukc ( i ki = k). Apply block Lanczos (Algorithm 3 in Appendix 6.1) with initialization Q1 = ?. 3.2 Multi-scale spectral decomposition In this section, we describe our multi-scale spectral decomposition algorithm (MSEIGS). One challenge for Algorithm 1 is the trade-off in choosing the number of clusters c. If c is large, although computing the top-r eigenpairs of Aii can be very efficient, it is likely to increase k k, which in turn will result in slower convergence of Algorithm 1. In contrast, larger clusters will emerge when c is small, increasing the time to compute the top-r eigendecomposition for each Aii . However, k k is likely to decrease in this case, resulting in faster convergence of Algorithm 1. To address this issue, we can further partition Aii into c smaller clusters and construct a hierarchy until each cluster is small enough to be solved efficiently. After obtaining this hierarchical clustering, we can recursively apply Algorithm 1 as it moves from lower levels to upper levels in the hierarchy tree. By constructing a hierarchy, we can pick a small c to obtain ? with small ?(?, Uk ) (we set c = 4 in the experiments). Our MSEIGS algorithm with multiple levels is described in Algorithm 2. Figures 1(b) and 1(c) show a comparison between MSEIGS and MSEIGS with a single level. For the single level case, we use the top-r eigenpairs of the c child clusters computed up to machine precision. We can see that MSEIGS performs similarly well compared to the single level case showing the effectiveness of our multi-scale approach. To build the hierarchy, we can adopt either top-down or bottom-up approaches using existing clustering algorithms. The overhead of clustering is very low, usually less than 10% of the total time. For example, MSEIGS takes 1,825 seconds, where clustering takes only 80 seconds, for the FriendsterSub dataset (in Table 1) with 10M nodes and 83M edges. Early Termination of MSEIGS: Computing the exact spectral decomposition of A can be quite time consuming. Furthermore, highly accurate eigenvalues/eigenvectors are not essential for many applications. Thus, we propose a fast early termination strategy (MSEIGS-Early) to approximate the eigenpairs of A by terminating MSEIGS at a certain level of the hierarchy tree. Suppose that we terminate MSEIGS at the `-th level with c` clusters. From the top-r eigenpairs of each cluster, we can select the top-k eigenvalues and the corresponding eigenvectors from all c` clusters as an approximate eigendecomposition of A. As shown in Sections 4.2 and 4.3, we can significantly reduce the computation time while attaining comparable performance using the early termination strategy for two applications: label propagation and inductive matrix completion. Multi-core Parallelization: An important advantage of MSEIGS is that it can be easily parallelized, which is essential for large-scale eigendecomposition. There are two main aspects of parallelism 5 Algorithm 2: Multi-scale spectral decomposition (MSEIGS) Input : n ? n symmetric sparse matrix A, target rank k, the number of levels ` of the hierarchy tree and the number of clusters c at each node. ?i ), i = 1, ? ? ? , k of A. Output: The approximate dominant k eigenpairs ( ? i , u 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Perform hierarchical clustering on A (e.g., top-down or bottom-up). (`) Compute the top-r eigenpairs of each leaf node Aii for i = 1, ? ? ? , c` , using block Lanczos. for i = ` 1, ? ? ? , 1 do for j = 1, ? ? ? , ci do (i) Form block diagonal matrix ?j by (2). (i) (i) Compute the eigendecomposition of Ajj by Algorithm 1 with ?j as the initial block. end end in MSEIGS: (1) The eigendecomposition of clusters in the same level of the hierarchy tree can be computed independently; (2) Block Lanczos mainly involves matrix-matrix operations (Level 3 BLAS), thus efficient parallel linear algebra libraries (e.g., Intel MKL) can be used. We show in Section 4 that MSEIGS can achieve significant speedup in shared-memory multi-core settings. 4 Experimental Results In this section, we empirically demonstrate the benefits of our proposed MSEIGS method. We compare MSEIGS with other popular eigensolvers including Matlab?s eigs function (EIGS) [14], PROPACK [12], randomized SVD (RSVD) [7] and block Lanczos with random initialization (BlkLan) [21] on three different tasks: approximating the eigendecomposition, label propagation and inductive matrix completion. The experimental settings can be found in Appendix 6.5. 4.1 Approximation results First, we show in Figure 2 the performance of MSEIGS for approximating the top-k eigenvectors for different types of real-world graphs including web graphs, social networks and road networks [17, 28]. Summary of the datasets is given in Table 1, where the largest graph contains more than 3.6 ?k , Uk )) as the evaluation billion edges. We use the average of the cosine of principal angles cos(?(U ?k consists of the computed top-k eigenvectors and Uk represents the ?true? top-k metric, where U eigenvectors computed up to machine precision using Matlab?s eigs function. Larger values of the ?k , Uk )) imply smaller principal angles between the subspace spanned by Uk and average cos(?(U ?k , i.e., better approximation. As shown in Figure 2, with the same amount of time, the that of U eigenvectors computed by MSEIGS consistently yield better principal angles than other methods. Table 1: Datasets of increasing sizes. dataset # of nodes # of nonzeros rank k CondMat 21,263 182,628 100 Amazon 334,843 1,851,744 100 RoadCA 1,965,206 5,533,214 200 LiveJournal 3,997,962 69,362,378 500 FriendsterSub 10.00M 83.67M 100 SDWeb 82.29M 3.68B 50 Since MSEIGS divides the problem into independent subproblems, it is naturally parallelizable. In Figure 3, we compare MSEIGS with other methods under the shared-memory multi-core setting for the LiveJournal and SDWeb datasets. We vary the number of cores from 1 to 16 and show the time to compute similar approximation of the eigenpairs. As shown in Figure 3, MSEIGS achieves almost linear speedup and outperforms other methods. For example, MSEIGS is the fastest method achieving a speedup of 10 using 16 cores for the LiveJournal dataset. 4.2 Label propagation for semi-supervised learning and multi-label learning One application for MSEIGS is to speed up the label propagation algorithm, which is widely used for graph-based semi-supervised learning [29] and multi-label learning [26]. The basic idea of label propagation is to propagate the known labels over an affinity graph (represented as a weighted matrix W ) constructed using both labeled and unlabeled examples. Mathematically, at the (t + 1)-th iteration, F (t + 1) = ?SF (t) + (1 ?)Y , where S is the normalized affinity matrix of W ; Y is the n ? l initial label matrix; F is the predicted label matrix; l is the number of labels; n is the total number of samples; 0 ? ? < 1. The optimal solution is F ? = (1 ?)(I ?S) 1 Y . There are two standard approaches to approximate F ? : one is to iterate over F (t) until convergence (truncated 6 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 0.7 EIGS PROPACK RSVD BlkLan MSEIGS 0.65 1 2 3 4 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 0.7 EIGS PROPACK RSVD BlkLan MSEIGS 0.65 0.6 0 5 20 40 60 80 Time (sec) Time (sec) (a) CondMat (b) Amazon 1 1 0.95 0.95 0.8 0.75 EIGS PROPACK RSVD BlkLan MSEIGS 0.7 0.65 0.6 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Time (sec) 3000 3500 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 EIGS PROPACK RSVD BlkLan MSEIGS 0.7 0.65 4000 0.6 0 2000 (d) RoadCA 4000 6000 8000 Time (sec) 0.7 EIGS PROPACK RSVD BlkLan MSEIGS 500 1000 1500 Time (sec) 2000 2500 (c) FriendsterSub 1 0.9 0.8 0.75 0.6 0 100 0.95 0.85 0.9 0.85 0.65 10000 12000 Avg. cosine of principal angles Avg. cosine of principal angles 0.6 0 Avg. cosine of principal angles 1 0.95 Avg. cosine of principal angles 1 0.95 Avg. cosine of principal angles Avg. cosine of principal angles 1 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 EIGS PROPACK RSVD BlkLan MSEIGS 0.7 0.65 14000 0.6 0.5 1 (e) LiveJournal 1.5 Time (sec) 2 2.5 4 x 10 (f) SDWeb Figure 2: The k dominant eigenvectors approximation results showing time vs. average cosine of principal angles. For a given time, MSEIGS consistently yields better results than other methods. EIGS RSVD BlkLan MSEIGS 4 EIGS RSVD BlkLan MSEIGS Time (sec) Time (sec) 10 4 10 3 10 2 4 6 8 10 Number of cores 12 14 16 2 (a) LiveJournal 4 6 8 10 Number of cores 12 14 16 (b) SDWeb Figure 3: Shared-memory multi-core results showing number of cores vs. time to compute similar approximation. MSEIGS achieves almost linear speedup and outperforms other methods. method); another is to solve F ? as a system of linear equations by using an iterative solver like conjugate gradient (CG) [10]. However, both methods suffer from slow convergence, especially when the number of labels, i.e., columns of Y , grows dramatically. As an alternative, we can apply ?k ? ? kU ? T and approximate MSEIGS to generate the top-k eigendecomposition of S such that S ? U k ? ? 1 T ?k (I ?? ? k) U ? Y . Obviously, F? is robust to large numbers of labels. F as F ? F? = (1 ?)U k In Table 2, we compare MSEIGS and MSEIGS-Early with other methods for label propagation on two public datasets: Aloi and Delicious, where Delicious is a multi-label dataset containing 16,105 samples and 983 labels, and Aloi is a semi-supervised learning dataset containing 108,000 samples with 1,000 classes. More details of the datasets and parameters are given in Appendix 6.6. As we can see in Table 2, MSEIGS and MSEIGS-Early significantly outperform other methods. To achieve similar accuracy, MSEIGS takes much less time. More interestingly, MSEIGS-Early is faster than MSEIGS and almost 10 times faster than other methods with very little degradation of accuracy showing the efficiency of our early-termination strategy. 4.3 Inductive matrix completion for recommender systems In the context of recommender systems, Inductive Matrix Completion (IMC) [8] is another important application where MSEIGS can be applied. IMC incorporates side-information of users and items given in the form of feature vectors for matrix factorization, which has been shown to be effective for the gene-disease association problem [18]. Given a user-item ratings matrix R 2 Rm?n , where Rij is the known rating of item j by user i, IMC is formulated as follows: X min (Rij xTi W H T yj )2 + (kW k2F + kHk2F ), 2 W 2Rfc ?r ,H2Rfd ?r (i,j)2? where ? is the set of observed entries; is a regularization parameter; xi 2 Rfc and yj 2 Rfd are feature vectors for user i and item j, respectively. We evaluated MSEIGS combined with IMC for recommendation tasks where a social network among users is also available. It has been shown 7 Table 2: Label propagation results on two real datasets including Aloi for semi-supervised classification and Delicious for multi-label learning. The graph is constructed using [16], which takes 87.9 seconds for Aloi and 16.1 seconds for Delicious. MSEIGS is about 5 times faster and MSEIGSEarly is almost 20 times faster than EIGS while achieving similar accuracy on the Aloi dataset. Method Truncated CG EIGS RSVD BlkLan MSEIGS MSEIGS-Early Aloi (k = 1500) time(seconds) acc(%) 1824.8 59.87 2921.6 60.01 3890.9 60.08 964.1 59.62 1272.2 59.96 767.1 60.03 176.2 58.98 Delicious (k = 1000) time(seconds) top3-acc(%) top1-acc(%) 3385.1 45.12 48.89 1094.9 44.93 48.73 458.2 45.11 48.51 359.8 44.11 46.91 395.6 43.52 45.53 235.6 44.84 49.23 61.36 44.71 48.22 that exploiting these social networks improves the quality of recommendations [9, 25]. One way to obtain useful and robust features from the social network is to consider the k principal components, i.e., top-k eigenvectors, of the corresponding adjacency matrix A. We compare the recommendation performance of IMC using eigenvectors computed by MSEIGS, MSEIGS-Early and EIGS. We also report results for two baseline methods: standard matrix completion (MC) without user/item features and Katz1 on the combined network C = [A R; RT 0] as in [25]. We evaluated the recommendation performance on three publicly available datasets shown in Table 6 (see Appendix 6.7 for more details). The Flixster dataset [9] contains user-movie ratings information and the other two datasets [28] are for the user-affiliation recommendation task. We report recallat-N with N = 20 averaged over 5-fold cross-validation, which is a widely used evaluation metric for top-N recommendation tasks [2]. In Table 3, we can see that IMC outperforms the two baseline methods: Katz and MC. For IMC, both MSEIGS and MSEIGS-Early achieve comparable results compared to other methods, but require much less time to compute the top-k eigenvectors (i.e., user latent features). For the LiveJournal dataset, MSEIGS-Early is almost 8 times faster than EIGS while attaining similar performance as shown in Table 3. Table 3: Recall-at-20 (RCL@20) and top-k eigendecomposition time (eig-time, in seconds) results on three real-world datasets: Flixster, Amazon and LiveJournal. MSEIGS and MSEIGS-Early require much less time to compute the top-k eigenvectors (latent features) for IMC while achieving similar performance compared to other methods. Note that Katz and MC do not use eigenvectors. Method Katz MC EIGS RSVD BlkLan MSEIGS MSEIGS-Early 5 Flixster (k = 100) eig-time RCL@20 0.1119 0.0820 120.51 0.1472 85.31 0.1491 104.95 0.1465 36.27 0.1489 21.88 0.1481 Amazon (k = 500) eig-time RCL@20 0.3224 0.4497 871.30 0.4999 369.82 0.4875 882.58 0.4687 264.47 0.4911 179.04 0.4644 LiveJournal (k = 500) eig-time RCL@20 0.2838 0.2699 12099.57 0.4259 7617.98 0.4294 5099.79 0.4248 2863.55 0.4253 1545.52 0.4246 Conclusions In this paper, we proposed a novel divide-and-conquer based framework, multi-scale spectral decomposition (MSEIGS), for approximating the top-k eigendecomposition of large-scale graphs. Our method exploits the clustering structure of the graph and converges faster than state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, our method can be easily parallelized, which makes it suitable for massive graphs. Empirically, MSEIGS consistently outperforms other popular eigensolvers in terms of convergence speed and approximation quality on real-world graphs with up to billions of edges. 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Spectral Clustering of Graphs with the Bethe Hessian Alaa Saade Laboratoire de Physique Statistique, CNRS UMR 8550 ? Ecole Normale Superieure, 24 Rue Lhomond Paris 75005 Florent Krzakala? Sorbonne Universit?es, UPMC Univ Paris 06 Laboratoire de Physique Statistique, CNRS UMR 8550 ? Ecole Normale Superieure, 24 Rue Lhomond Paris 75005 Lenka Zdeborov?a Institut de Physique Th?eorique CEA Saclay and CNRS URA 2306 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France Abstract Spectral clustering is a standard approach to label nodes on a graph by studying the (largest or lowest) eigenvalues of a symmetric real matrix such as e.g. the adjacency or the Laplacian. Recently, it has been argued that using instead a more complicated, non-symmetric and higher dimensional operator, related to the non-backtracking walk on the graph, leads to improved performance in detecting clusters, and even to optimal performance for the stochastic block model. Here, we propose to use instead a simpler object, a symmetric real matrix known as the Bethe Hessian operator, or deformed Laplacian. We show that this approach combines the performances of the non-backtracking operator, thus detecting clusters all the way down to the theoretical limit in the stochastic block model, with the computational, theoretical and memory advantages of real symmetric matrices. Clustering a graph into groups or functional modules (sometimes called communities) is a central task in many fields ranging from machine learning to biology. A common benchmark for this problem is to consider graphs generated by the stochastic block model (SBM) [7, 22]. In this case, one considers n vertices and each of them has a group label gv ? {1, . . . , q}. A graph is then created as follows: all edges are generated independently according to a q ? q matrix p of probabilities, with Pr[Au,v = 1] = pgu ,gv . The group labels are hidden, and the task is to infer them from the knowledge of the graph. The stochastic block model generates graphs that are a generalization of the Erd?os-R?enyi ensemble where an unknown labeling has been hidden. We concentrate on the sparse case, where algorithmic challenges appear. In this case pab is O(1/n), and we denote pab = cab /n. For simplicity we concentrate on the most commonly-studied case where groups are equally sized, cab = cin if a = b and cab = cout if a 6= b. Fixing cin > cout is referred to as the assortative case, because vertices from the same group connect with higher probability than with vertices from other groups. cout > cin is called the disassortative case. An important conjecture [4] is that any tractable algorithm will only detect communities if ? |cin ? cout | > q c , (1) where c is the average degree. In the case of q = 2 groups, in particular, this has been rigorously proven [15, 12] (in this case, one can also prove that no algorithm could detect communities if this condition is not met). An ideal clustering algorithm should have a low computational complexity while being able to perform optimally for the stochastic block model, detecting clusters down to the transition (1). ? This work has been supported in part by the ERC under the European Union?s 7th Framework Programme Grant Agreement 307087-SPARCS 1 So far there are two algorithms in the literature able to detect clusters down to the transition (1). One is a message-passing algorithm based on belief-propagation [5, 4]. This algorithm, however, needs to be fed with the correct parameters of the stochastic block model to perform well, and its computational complexity scales quadratically with the number of clusters, which is an important practical limitation. To avoid such problems, the most popular non-parametric approaches to clustering are spectral methods, where one classifies vertices according to the eigenvectors of a matrix associated with the network, for instance its adjacency matrix [11, 16]. However, while this works remarkably well on regular, or dense enough graphs [2], the standard versions of spectral clustering are suboptimal on graphs generated by the SBM, and in some cases completely fail to detect communities even when other (more complex) algorithms such as belief propagation can do so. Recently, a new class of spectral algorithms based on the use of a non-backtracking walk on the directed edges of the graph has been introduced [9] and argued to be better suited for spectral clustering. In particular, it has been shown to be optimal for graphs generated by the stochastic block model, and able to detect communities even in the sparse case all the way down to the theoretical limit (1). These results are, however, not entirely satisfactory. First, the use a of a high-dimensional matrix (of dimension 2m - where m is the number of edges - rather than n, the number of nodes) can be expensive, both in terms of computational time and memory. Secondly, linear algebra methods are faster and more efficient for symmetric matrices than non-symmetric ones. The first problem was partially resolved in [9] where an equivalent operator of dimensions 2n was shown to exist. It was still, however, a non-symmetric one and more importantly, the reduction does not extend to weighted graphs, and thus presents a strong limitation. In this contribution, we provide the best of both worlds: a non-parametric spectral algorithm for clustering with a symmetric n ? n, real operator that performs as well as the non-backtracking operator of [9], in the sense that it identifies communities as soon as (1) holds. We show numerically that our approach performs as well as the belief-propagation algorithm, without needing prior knowledge of any parameter, making it the simplest algorithmically among the best-performing clustering methods. This operator is actually not new, and has been known as the Bethe Hessian in the context of statistical physics and machine learning [14, 17] or the deformed Laplacian in other fields. However, to the best of our knowledge, it has never been considered in the context of spectral clustering. The paper is organized as follows. In Sec. 1 we give the expression of the Bethe Hessian operator. We discuss in detail its properties and its connection with both the non-backtracking operator and an Ising spin glass in Sec. 2. In Sec. 3, we study analytically the spectrum in the case of the stochastic block model. Finally, in Sec. 4 we perform numerical tests on both the stochastic block model and on some real networks. 1 Clustering based on the Bethe Hessian matrix Let G = (V, E) be a graph with n vertices, V = {1, ..., n}, and m edges. Denote by A its adjacency matrix, and by D the diagonal matrix defined by Dii = di , ?i ? V , where di is the degree of vertex i. We then define the Bethe Hessian matrix, sometimes called the deformed Laplacian, as H(r) := (r2 ? 1)1 ? rA + D , (2) where |r| > 1 is a regularizer that we will set to a well-defined value |r| = rc depending on the ? graph, for instance rc = c in the case of the stochastic block model, where c is the average degree of the graph (see Sec. 2.1). The spectral algorithm that is the main result of this paper works as follows: we compute the eigenvectors associated with the negative eigenvalues of both H(rc ) and H(?rc ), and cluster them with a standard clustering algorithm such as k-means (or simply by looking at the sign of the components in the case of two communities). The negative eigenvalues of H(rc ) reveal the assortative aspects, while those of H(?rc ) reveal the disassortative ones. Figure 1 illustrates the spectral properties of the Bethe Hessian (2) for networks generated by the ? stochastic block model. When r = ? c the informative eigenvalues (i.e. those having eigenvectors correlated to the cluster structure) are the negative ones, while the non-informative bulk remains positive. There are as many negative eigenvalues as there are hidden clusters. It is thus straightforward to select the relevant eigenvectors. This is very unlike the situation for the operators used in standard spectral clustering algorithms (except, again, for the non-backtracking operator) where 2 0.2 r= 2 r=r=1.5 4 3 0.2 0.2 r= 5 r= 0.2 r= r= 3 r= 30.2 4 r= 40.2 r= 4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.15 15 0.05 0.05 0.150.05 0.05 0.150.05 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.15 0.2 0.05 0.2 0.05 0 0 .1 0 0 0.05 0.1 0 0.05 0.05 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 20 40 60 0.1 40 0 200.1 40 60 0.120 0 20 60 0.1 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 60 0 0 0 20 40 20 40 60 0 0 20 40 60 0 20 40 6020 040 0 60 20 40 0.15 0.15 05 0.15 0.15 r= r=542 0.15 r= 0.05 0.05 r= 431.5 r= 5 r= r=3 1.1 r=0.05 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.05 0.2 0.05 0.20.05 0.05 r=0.2 0.2 0.05 0.2 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 2 0.05 r= 2 r= 1.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 r= 1.5 0.2 0.2 0.15 0.15 r= 2 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 r= 1.1 r= 1.5 0.2 0.2 0 0 0 0 20 0400 02 0 400 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0 0.1 0 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 40 60 0 20 60 20 60 20 40 60 40 60 0 40 60 20 0.1 40000 20 60 0 20 40 60 20 040 0 20 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0 20 60 0 20 40 60 0 0.1 0 20 40 20 40 0.1 0.15 0.12040 0.05 0.05 0.1 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0 40 0.15 0 000 0 00 0 r= 2 20 40 60 r= 20 000 2 20 40 20 60 r= 001.5 0.2 r= 1.10.2 0.240 20 20 40 60 20 4040 6060 1.5 00 r= 20 40 60 r= r= 60 2 0.2 0.2 0.2 ? 0.1 0.2 0.1 ?0.1r= 1.5 ? 0.1 0.1 r= 2 r= 1.5 0.1 r= r=1.5 1.1 r= 21.5 0.2 r= 1.10.1 0.2 r= r= r= 2r= 2 1.5 r= 1.1 0.2 0.2 r= 2 r= 1.5 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.05 0.05 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.05 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.1 0.1 0 00.15 060 400 00 0 2 00 00 2 00 400 40 0 0.15 0.15 0 0 0 02 0.15 00 020 60 00 0 20 0 0 0 0 0.15 20 40 60 20 60 0 20 40 0 20 20 0.05 400 60 20 4040 0 6060 40 0 40 60 0 20 40 0.15 0.15 0 20 0 60 0.05 0 20 40 60 0.05 0 20 0 20 40 60 0.05 0.05 20 60 20 40 60 20 40 20 40 ???? 60 0.05 ? ? 0 20 ? ?0 0.05 ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0 0.1 0 0 40 0.1 0.1 density0.1 of40 the0Bethe Hessian for various values of the20 regularizer r on the stochas- 60 0 20 0 Figure 20 40 60 0 20 0 40 1: Spectral 2060 60 0 40 0 0 0 Bethe Hessian for a The?red dots are the20 result of the direct of the ? tic block model. ? 40 ?40 diagonalization 0 60 ? 0 20 0.05 4 0.05 0.05 graph of 10 vertices with 2 clusters, with c? = 4, cin = 7, cout = 1. The black curves are the solutions ? to the recursion c = 4, obtained from population dynamics (with a0.05 population0.05 of size 105 ), 0.05 (15) for0.05 0 r= 2r= 5 0.2 0 ? ? (?) ? (?) ? (?) ? (?) r= 5 ? (?) ? (?) ? (?) ? (?) ? (?) (?) ?? (?) ? (?) ? (?) 0.2 ? (?) r= 5 40 0 see section 3. We isolated the two smallest eigenvalues, represented as small bars for convenience. The dashed black line marks the x = 0 axis, and the 0 inset is a zoom around this axis. At large value of 20 r = 5,0the Bethe 40 Hessian 0 all eigenvalues 20 are positive. 0 is60positive definite 0 60 r (top left) and 040As r decays, 0 20 40 60 0 ? ? 60spectrum moves towards 0 40 ? (non-informative) 60 0 the the x =20 0 axis. The smallest eigenvalue reaches zero 20 for r = c = 4 (middle top), followed, as r decays ? further, by the second (informative) eigenvalue at r = (cin ? cout )/2 = 3, which is the value?of the second largest eigenvalue of B in this case [9] (top right). Finally, the bulk reaches 0 at rc = c = 2 (bottom left). At this point, the information is in the negative part, while the bulk is in the positive part. Interestingly, if r decays further (bottom middle and right) the bulk of the spectrum remains positive, ? but the informative eigenvalues blend back into the bulk. The best choice is thus to work at rc = c = 2. one must decide in a somehow ambiguous way which eigenvalues are relevant (outside the bulk) or not (inside the bulk). Here, on the contrary, no prior knowledge of the number of communities is needed. p On more general graphs, we argue that the best choice for the regularizer is rc = ?(B), where ?(B) is the spectral radius of the non-backtracking operator. We support this claim both numerically, on real world networks (sec. 4.2), and analytically (sec. 3). We also show that ?(B) can be computed without building the matrix B itself, by efficiently solving a quadratic eigenproblem (sec. 2.1). The Bethe Hessian can be generalized straightforwardly to the weighed case: if the edge (i, j) carries ? a weight wij , then we can use the matrix H(r) defined by   rw A X w2 ij ij ik ? ij = ?ij 1 + H(r) ? 2 (3) 2 2 , r2 ? wik r ? wij k??i where ?i denotes the set of neighbors of vertex i. This is in fact the general expression of the Bethe ? Hessian of a certain weighted statistical model (see section 2.2). If all weights are equal to unity, H reduces to (2) up to a trivial factor. Most of the arguments developed in the following generalize im? including the relationship with the weighted non-backtracking operator, introduced mediately to H, in the conclusion of [9]. 2 Derivation and relation to previous works Our approach is connected to both the spectral algorithm using the non-backtracking matrix and to an Ising spin glass model. We now discuss these connections, and the properties of the Bethe Hessian operator along the way. 3 0 0 20 40 ? ? 4 2.1 Relation with the non-backtracking matrix The non-backtracking operator of [9] is defined as a 2m ? 2m non-symmetric matrix indexed by the directed edges of the graph i ? j Bi?j,k?l = ?jk (1 ? ?il ) . (4) The remarkable efficiency of the non-backtracking operator is due to the particular structure of its (complex) spectrum. For graphs generated by the SBM the spectrum decomposesp into a bulk of uninformative eigenvalues sharply constrained when n ? ? to the disk of radius ?(B), where ?(B) is the spectral radius of B [20], well separated from the real, informative eigenvalues, that lie outside of this circle. It was also remarked that the number of real eigenvalues outside of the circle is the number of communities, when the graph was generated by the stochastic block model. More p precisely, the presence of assortative communities yields real positive eigenvalues larger than ?(B), pwhile the presence of disassortative communities yields real negative eigenvalues smaller than ? ?(B). The authors of [9] showed that all eigenvalues ? of B that are different from ?1 are roots of the polynomial det [(?2 ? 1)1 ? ?A + D] = det H(?) . (5) This is known in graph theory as the Ihara-Bass formula for the graph zeta function. It provides the link between B and the (determinant of the) Bethe Hessian (already noticed in [23]): a real eigenvalue of B corresponds to a value of r such that the Bethe Hessian has a vanishing eigenvalue. For any finite n, when r is large enough, H(r) is positive definite. Then as r decreases, a new negative eigenvalue of H(r) appears when it crosses the zero axis, i.e whenever r is equal to a real positive eigenvalue ? of B. The null space of H(?) is related to the corresponding eigenvector of B. Denoting (v i )1?i?n the eigenvector of H(?) with eigenvalue 0, and (v i?j )(i,j)?E the eigenvector of B with eigenvalue ?, we have [9]: X vi = v k?i . (6) k??i i Therefore the vector (v )1?i?n is correlated with the community structure when (v i?j )(i,j)?E is. ? The numerical experiments of section 4 show that when r = c < ?, the eigenvector (v i )1?i?n corresponds to a strictly negative eigenvalue, and is even more correlated with the community structure than the eigenvector (v i?j )(i,j)?E . This fact still lacks a proper theoretical understanding. We provide in section 2.2 a different, physical justification to the relevance of the ?negative? eigenvectors of the Bethe Hessian for community detection. Of course, the same phenomenon takes place when increasing r from a large negative value. In order to translate all the informative eigenvalues of B into negative eigenvalues of H(r) we adopt p rc = ?(B) . (7) since all the relevant eigenvalues of B are outside the circle of radius rc . On the other hand, H(r = 1) is the standard, positive-semidefinite, Laplacian so that for r < rc , the negative eigenvalues of H(r) move back into the positive part of the spectrum. This is consistent with the observation of [9] that the eigenvalues of B come in pairs having their product close to ?(B), so that for each root ? > rc of (5), corresponding to the appearance of a new negative eigenvalue, there is another root ?0 ' ?(B)/? < rc which we numerically found to correspond to the same eigenvalue becoming positive again. Let us stress that to compute ?(B), we do not need to actually build the non-backtracking matrix. First, for large random networks of a given degree distribution, ?(B) = hd2 i/hdi ? 1 [9], where hdi and hd2 i are the first and second moments of the degree distribution. In a more general setting, we can efficiently refine this initial guess by solving for the closest root of the quadratic eigenproblem defined by (5), e.g. using a standard SLP algorithm [19]. With the choice (7), the informative eigenvalues of B are in one-to-one correspondance with the union of negative eigenvalues of H(rc ) and H(?rc ). Because B has as many informative eigenvalues as there are (detectable) communities in the network [9], their number will therefore tell us the number of (detectable) communities in the graph, and we will use them to infer the community membership of the nodes, by using a standard clustering algorithm such as k-means. 4 2.2 Hessian of the Bethe free energy Let us define a pairwise Ising model on the graph G by the joint probability distribution: ? ?   X 1 1 P ({x}) = exp ? xi xj ? , atanh Z r (8) (i,j)?E where {x} := {xi }i?{1..n} ? {?1}n is a set of binary random variables sitting on the nodes of the graph G. The regularizer r is here a parameter that controls the strength of the interaction between the variables: the larger |r| is, the weaker is the interaction. In order to study this model, a standard approach in machine learning is the Bethe approximation [21] in which the means hxi i and moments hxi xj i are approximated by the parameters mi and ?ij that minimize the so-called Bethe free energy FBethe ({mi }, {?ij }) defined as 1 X X  1 + mi xi + mj xj + ?ij xi xj  X ?ij + ? FBethe ({mi }, {?ij }) = ? atanh r 4 (i,j)?E xi ,xj (i,j)?E   X X 1 + mi xi (1 ? di ) ? + , (9) 2 x i?V i where ?(x) := x ln x. Such approach allows for instance to derive the belief propagation (BP) algorithm. Here, however, we wish to restrict to a spectral one. At very high r the minimum of the Bethe free energy is given by the so-called paramagnetic point mi = 0, ?ij = 1r . It turns out [14] that mi = 0, ?ij = 1r is a stationarity point of the Bethe free energy for every r. Instead of considering the complete Bethe free energy, we will consider only its behavior around the paramagnetic point. This can be expressed via the Hessian (matrix of second derivatives), that has been studied extensively, see e.g. [14], [17]. At the paramagnetic point, the blocks of the Hessian involving one derivative with respect to the ?ij are 0, and the block involving two such derivatives is a positive definite diagonal matrix [23]. We will therefore, somewhat improperly, call Hessian the matrix ?FBethe . (10) Hij (r) = ?mi ?mj mi =0,?ij = r1 In particular, at the paramagnetic point: D rA H(r) H(r) = 1 + 2 ? = 2 . (11) r ? 1 r2 ? 1 r ?1 A more general expression of the Bethe Hessian in the case of weighted interactions atanh(wij /r) (with weights rescaled to be in [0, 1]) is given by eq. (3). All eigenvectors of H(r) and H(r) are the same, as are the eigenvalues up to a multiplicative, positive factor (since we consider only |r| > 1). The paramagnetic point is stable iff H(r) is positive definite. The appearance of each negative eigenvalue of the Hessian corresponds to a phase transition in the Ising model at which a new cluster (or a set of clusters) starts to be identifiable. The corresponding eigenvector will give the direction towards the cluster labeling. This motivates the use of the Bethe Hessian for spectral clustering. For tree-like graphs such as those generated by the SBM, model (8) can been studied analytically in the asymptotic limit n ? ?. The location of the possible phase transitions in model (8) are also known from spin glass theory and the theory of phase transitions on random graphs (see e.g. [14, 5, 4, 17]). For positive r the trivial ferromagnetic phase appears at r = c, while?the transitions towards the phases corresponding to the hidden community structure For ? arise between c < r < c. ? disassortative communities, the situation is symmetric with r < ? c. Interestingly, at r = ? c, the model undergoes a spin glass phase transition. At this point all the relevant eigenvalues have passed in the negative side (all the possible transitions from the paramagnetic states to the hidden structure have taken place) while the bulk of non-informative ones remains positive. This scenario is illustrated in Fig. 1 for the case of two assortative clusters. 3 The spectrum of the Bethe Hessian The spectral density of the Bethe Hessian can be computed analytically on tree-like graphs such as those generated by the stochastic block model. This will serve two goals: i) to justify independently 5 our choice for the value of the regularizer r and ii) to show that for all values of r, the bulk of uninformative eigenvalues remains in the positive region. The spectral density is defined by: n ?(?) = 1X ?(? ? ?i ) , n i=1 (12) where the ?i ?s are the eigenvalues of the Bethe Hessian. It can be shown [18] that it is also given by n ?(?) = 1 X Im?i (?) , ?n i=1 (13) where the ?i are complex variables living on the vertices of the graph G, which are given by:  ?1 X ?i = ? ? + r 2 + d i ? 1 ? r 2 ?l?i , (14) l??i where di is the degree of node i in the graph, and ?i is the set of neighbors of i. The ?i?j are the (linearly stable) solution of the following belief propagation recursion, or cavity method [13],  ?1 X ?i?j = ? ? + r2 + di ? 1 ? r2 ?l?i . (15) l??i\j The ingredients to derive this formula are to turn the computation of the spectral density into a marginalization problem for a graphical model on the graph G, and then write the belief propagation equations to solve it. It can be shown [3] that this approach leads to an asymptotically exact description of the spectral density on random graphs such as those generated by the stochastic block model, which are locally tree-like in the limit where n ? ?. We can solve equation (15) numerically using a population dynamics algorithm [13]: starting from a pool of variables, we iterate by drawing at each step a variable, its excess degree and its neighbors from the pool, and updating its value according to (15). The results are shown on Fig. 1: the bulk of the spectrum is always positive. We p now justify analytically that the bulk of eigenvalues of the Bethe Hessian reaches 0 at r = ?(B). From (13) and (14), we see that if the linearly stable solution of (15) is real, then the corresponding spectral density will be equal to 0. We want to show that there exists an open set U ? R around 0 in which there exists a real, stable, solution to the BP recursion. Let us call ? ? R2m , where m is the number of edges in G, the vector which components are the ?i?j . We introduce the function F : (?, ?) ? R2m+1 ? F (?, ?) ? R2m defined by   X 1 F (?, ?)i?j = ? ? + r2 + di ? 1 ? r2 ?l?i ? , (16) ?i?j l??i\j so that equation (15) can be rewritten as F (?, ?) = 0 . (17) It is straightforward to check that when ? = 0, the assignment ?i?j = 1/r2 is a real solution of (17). Furthermore, the Jacobian of F at this point reads ? ? ?1 ?0 ? ? . ? 2 ? ?, 2 2 JF (0, {1/r }) = ? .. (18) r (r 1 ? B) ? ? ? 0 where B is the 2m?2m non-backtracking operator and 1 is the 2m?2m identity matrix. The square submatrix of the Jacobianpcontaining the derivatives with respect to the messages ?i?j is therefore invertible whenever r > ?(B). From the continuous differentiability of F around (0, {1/r2 }) and the implicit function theorem, there exists an open set V containing 0 such that for all ? ? V , there ? ? is continuous in ?. To show that the spectral exists ?(?) ? R solution of (17) , and the function ? 6 density is indeed 0 in an open set around ? = 0, we need to show that this solution is linearly stable. Introducing the function G? : ? ? R2m ? G? (?) ? R2m defined by  ?1 X G? (?)i?j = ? ? + r2 + di ? 1 ? r2 ?l?i , (19) l??i\j ? has all its eigenvalues smaller than it is enough to show that the Jacobian of G? at the point ?(?) 1 in modulus, for ? close to 0. But since JG? (?) is continuous in (?, ?) in the neighborhood of ? ? = {1/r2 }), and ?(?) is continuous in ?, it is enough to show that the spectral radius of (0, ?(0) JG0 ({1/r2 }) is smaller than 1. We compute 1 JG0 ({1/r2 }) = 2 B , (20) r 2 2 so that pthe spectral radius of JG0 ({1/r }) is ?(B)/r , which is (strictly) smaller than 1 as long as r > ?(B). From the continuity of the eigenvalues of a matrix with respect to its entries, there ? of the BP recursion (15) exists an open set U ? V containing 0 such that ?? ? U , the solution ? is real, so that the corresponding spectral density in U is equal to 0. This proves that the bulk of the p spectrum of H reaches 0 at r = rc = ?(B), further justifying our choice for the regularizer. 4 4.1 Numerical results Synthetic networks We illustrate the efficiency of the algorithm for graphs generated by the stochastic block model. Fig. 2 shows the performance of standard spectral clustering methods, as well as that of the belief propagation (BP) algorithm of [4], believed to be asymptotically optimal in large tree-like graph. The performance is measured in terms of the overlap with the true labeling, defined as !   1 1 X 1 1? ?gu ,?gu ? , (21) N u q q where gu is the true group label of node u, and g?u is the label given by the algorithm, and we maximize over all q! possible permutation of the groups. The Bethe Hessian systematically outperforms B and does almost as well as BP, which is a more complicated algorithm, that we have run here assuming the knowledge of ?oracle parameters?: the number of communities, their sizes, and the matrix pab [5, 4]. The Bethe Hessian, on the other hand is non-parametric and infers the number of communities in the graph by counting the number of negative eigenvalues. 4.2 Real networks We finally turn towards actual real graphs to illustrate the performances of our approach, and to show that even if real networks are not generated by the stochastic block model, the Bethe Hessian operator remains a useful tool. In Table 1 we give the overlap and the number of groups to be identified. We limited our experiments to this list of networks because they have known, ?ground true? clusters. For each case we observed a large correlation to the ground truth, and at least equal (and sometimes better) performances with respect to the non backtracking operator. The overlap was computed assuming knowledge of the number of ground true clusters. The number of clusters is correctly given by the number of negative eigenvalues of the Bethe Hessian in all the presented cases except for the political blogs network (10 predicted clusters) and the football network (10 predicted clusters). These differences either question the statistical significance of some of the human-decided labelling, or suggest the existence of additional relevant clusters. It is also interesting to note that our approach works not only in the assortative case but also in the disassortative ones, for instance for the word adjacency networks. A Matlab implementation to reproduce the results of the Bethe Hessian for both real and synthetic networks is provided as supplementary material. 5 Conclusion and perspectives We have presented here a new approach to spectral clustering using the Bethe Hessian and given evidence that this approach combines the advantages of standard sparse symmetric real matrices, with 7 q= 2 q= 2 1 BH B A Norm. Lap. BP 0.4 0.2 0 3 4 5 cin ? cout q= 3 1 BH B A Norm. Lap. 0.8 BP 0.8 overlap 0.8 0.6 1 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0 -5 -4 cin ? cout -3 0 BH B A Norm. Lap. BP 5 6 7 cin ? cout 8 Figure 2: Performance of spectral clustering applied to graphs of size n = 105 generated from the the stochastic block model. Each point is averaged over 20 such graphs. Left: assortative case with q = 2 clusters (theoretical transition at 3.46); middle: disassortative case with q = 2 (theoretical transition at -3.46); right: assortative case with q = 3 clusters (theoretical transition at 5.20). For q = 2, we clustered according to the signs of the components of the eigenvector corresponding to the second most negative eigenvalue of the Bethe Hessian operator. For q = 3, we used k-means on the 3 ?negative? eigenvectors. While both the standard adjacency (A) and symmetrically normalized Laplacian (D?1/2 (D ?A)D?1/2 ) approaches fail to identify clusters in a large relevant region, both the non-backtracking (B) and the Bethe Hessian (BH) approaches identify clusters almost as well as using the more complicated belief propagation (BP) with oracle parameters. Note, however, that the Bethe Hessian systematically outperforms the non-backtracking operator, at a smaller computational cost. Additionally, clustering with the adjacency matrix and the normalized laplacian are run on the largest connected component, while the Bethe Hessian doesn?t require any kind of pre-processing of the graph. While our theory explains why clustering with the Bethe Hessian gives a positive overlap whenever clustering with B does, we currently don?t have an explanation as to why the Bethe Hessian overlap is actually larger. Table 1: Overlap for some commonly used benchmarks for community detection, computed using the signs of the second eigenvector for the networks with two communities, and using k-means for those with three and more communities, compared to the man-made group assignment. The non-backtracking operator detects communities in all these networks, with an overlap comparable to the performance of other spectral methods. The Bethe Hessian systematically either equals or outperforms the results obtained by the non-backtracking operator. PART Non-backtracking [9] Bethe Hessian Polbooks (q = 3) [1] Polblogs (q = 2) [10] Karate (q = 2) [24] Football (q = 12) [6] Dolphins (q = 2) [16] Adjnoun (q = 2) [8] 0.742857 0.864157 1 0.924111 0.741935 0.625000 0.757143 0.865794 1 0.924111 0.806452 0.660714 the performances of the more involved non-backtracking operator, or the use of the belief propagation algorithm with oracle parameters. Advantages over other spectral methods are that the number of negative eigenvalues provides an estimate of the number of clusters, there is a well-defined way to set the parameter r, making the algorithm tuning-parameter free, and it is guaranteed to detect the communities generated from the stochastic block model down to the theoretical limit. This answers the quest for a tractable non-parametric approach that performs optimally in the stochastic block model. Given the large impact and the wide use of spectral clustering methods in many fields of modern science, we thus expect that our method will have a significant impact on data analysis. 8 References [1] L. A Adamic and N. Glance. The political blogosphere and the 2004 us election: divided they blog. In Proceedings of the 3rd international workshop on Link discovery, page 36. ACM, 2005. [2] P. J Bickel and A. Chen. A nonparametric view of network models and newman?girvan and other modularities. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(50):21068, 2009. [3] Charles Bordenave and Marc Lelarge. Resolvent of large random graphs. Random Structures and Algorithms, 37(3):332?352, 2010. [4] A. Decelle, F. Krzakala, C. Moore, and L. Zdeborov?a. Asymptotic analysis of the stochastic block model for modular networks and its algorithmic applications. Phys. Rev. E, 84(6):066106, 2011. [5] A. Decelle, F. Krzakala, C. Moore, and L. Zdeborov?a. Inference and phase transitions in the detection of modules in sparse networks. Phys. Rev. Lett., 107(6):065701, 2011. [6] Michelle Girvan and Mark EJ Newman. Community structure in social and biological networks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 99(12):7821?7826, 2002. [7] Paul W. Holland, Kathryn Blackmond Laskey, and Samuel Leinhardt. Stochastic blockmodels: First steps. Social Networks, 5(2):109, 1983. [8] Valdis Krebs. The network can be found on http://www.orgnet.com/. [9] F. Krzakala, C. Moore, E. Mossel, J. Neeman, A. Sly, L. Zdeborov?a, and P. Zhang. Spectral redemption in clustering sparse networks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(52):20935?20940, 2013. [10] D. Lusseau, K. Schneider, O. J. Boisseau, P. Haase, E. Slooten, and S. M Dawson. The bottlenose dolphin community of doubtful sound features a large proportion of long-lasting associations. Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology, 54(4):396?405, 2003. [11] Ulrike Luxburg. A tutorial on spectral clustering. Statistics and Computing, 17(4):395, 2007. [12] Laurent Massoulie. Community detection thresholds and the weak ramanujan property. arXiv preprint arXiv:1311.3085, 2013. [13] M. Mezard and A. Montanari. Information, Physics, and Computation. Oxford University Press, 2009. [14] Joris M Mooij, Hilbert J Kappen, et al. Validity estimates for loopy belief propagation on binary real-world networks. In NIPS, 2004. [15] Elchanan Mossel, Joe Neeman, and Allan Sly. A proof of the block model threshold conjecture. arXiv preprint arXiv:1311.4115, 2013. [16] Mark EJ Newman. Finding community structure in networks using the eigenvectors of matrices. Phys. Rev. E, 74(3):036104, 2006. [17] F. Ricci-Tersenghi. The bethe approximation for solving the inverse ising problem: a comparison with other inference methods. J. Stat. Mech.: Th. and Exp., page P08015, 2012. [18] Tim Rogers, Isaac P?erez Castillo, Reimer K?uhn, and Koujin Takeda. Cavity approach to the spectral density of sparse symmetric random matrices. Phys. Rev. E, 78(3):031116, 2008. [19] Axel Ruhe. Algorithms for the nonlinear eigenvalue problem. SIAM Journal on Numerical Analysis, 10(4):674?689, 1973. [20] Alaa Saade, Florent Krzakala, and Lenka Zdeborov?a. Spectral density of the non-backtracking operator on random graphs. EPL, 107(5):50005, 2014. [21] M. J. Wainwright and M. I. Jordan. Graphical models, exponential families, and variational inference. Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 1, 2008. [22] Yuchung J Wang and George Y Wong. Stochastic blockmodels for directed graphs. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 82(397):8?19, 1987. [23] Yusuke Watanabe and Kenji Fukumizu. Graph zeta function in the bethe free energy and loopy belief propagation. In NIPS, pages 2017?2025, 2009. [24] W Zachary. An information flow model for conflict and fission in small groups1. Journal of anthropological research, 33(4):452?473, 1977. 9
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Permutation Diffusion Maps (PDM) with Application to the Image Association Problem in Computer Vision Deepti Pachauri? , Risi Kondor? , Gautam Sargur? , Vikas Singh?? ? Dept. of Computer Sciences, University of Wisconsin?Madison ? Dept. of Biostatistics & Medical Informatics, University of Wisconsin?Madison ? Dept. of Computer Science and Dept. of Statistics, The University of Chicago pachauri@cs.wisc.edu risi@uchicago.edu gautam@cs.wisc.edu vsingh@biostat.wisc.edu Abstract Consistently matching keypoints across images, and the related problem of finding clusters of nearby images, are critical components of various tasks in Computer Vision, including Structure from Motion (SfM). Unfortunately, occlusion and large repetitive structures tend to mislead most currently used matching algorithms, leading to characteristic pathologies in the final output. In this paper we introduce a new method, Permutations Diffusion Maps (PDM), to solve the matching problem, as well as a related new affinity measure, derived using ideas from harmonic analysis on the symmetric group. We show that just by using it as a preprocessing step to existing SfM pipelines, PDM can greatly improve reconstruction quality on difficult datasets. 1 Introduction Structure from motion (SfM) is the task of jointly reconstructing 3D scenes and camera poses from a set of images. Keypoints or features extracted from each image provide correspondences between pairs of images, making it possible to estimate the relative camera pose. This gives rise to an association graph in which two images are connected by an edge if they share a sufficient number of corresponding keypoints, and the edge itself is labeled by the estimated matching between the two sets of keypoints. Starting with these putative image to image associations, one typically uses the socalled bundle adjustment procedure to simultaneously solve for the global camera pose parameters and 3-D scene locations, incrementally minimizing the sum of squares of the re-projection error. Despite their popularity, large scale bundle adjustment methods have well known limitations. In particular, given the highly nonlinear nature of the objective function, they can get stuck in bad local minima. Therefore, starting with a good initial matching (i.e., an informative image association graph) is critical. Several papers have studied this behavior in detail [1], and conclude that if one starts the numerical optimization from an incorrect ?seed? (i.e., a subgraph of the image associations), the downstream optimization is unlikely to ever recover. Similar challenges arise commonly in other fields, ranging from machine learning [2] to computational biology. For instance, consider the de novo genome assembly problem in computational biology [3]. The goal here is to reconstruct the original DNA sequence from fragments without a reference genome. Because the genome may have many repeated structures, the alignment problem becomes very hard. In general, reconstruction algorithms start with two maximally overlapping sequences and proceed by selecting the next fragment using a similar criterion. This procedure runs into the same type of issues as described above [4]. It will be useful to have a model that reasons globally over all pairwise information to provide a more robust metric for association. The efficacy of global reasoning will largely depend on the richness of the representation used for encoding pu1 tative pairwise information. The choice of representation is specific to the underlying application, so in this paper, to make our presentation as concrete as possible, we restrict ourselves to describing and evaluating our global association algorithm in the context of the structure from motion problem. In large scale structure from motion, several authors [5, 6, 7] have recentely identified situations where setting up a good image association graph is particularly difficult, and therefore a direct application of bundle adjustment yields highly unsatisfactory results. For example, consider a scene with a large number of duplicate structures (Fig. 1). The preprocessing step in a standard pipeline will match visual features and set up the associations accordingly. A key underlying assumption in most (if not all) approaches is that we observe only a single instance of any structure. This assumption is problematic where scenes have numerous architectural components or recur(a) (b) ring patterns, such as windows, Figure 1: HOUSE sequence. (a) Representative images. (b) Folded bricks, and so on. reconstruction by traditional SfM pipeline [8, 9]. In Figure 1(a) views that look exactly the same do not necessarily represent the same physical structure. Some (or all) points in one image are actually occluded in the other image. Typical SfM methods will not work well when initialized with such image associations, regardless of which type of solver we use. In our example, the resulting reconstruction will be folded (Figure 1(b)). In other cases [5], we get errors ranging from phantom walls to severely superimposed structures yielding nonsensical reconstructions. Related Work. The issue described above is variously known in the literature as the SfM disambiguation problem or the data/image association problem in structure from motion. Some of the strategies that have been proposed to mitigate it impose additional conditions, such as in [10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15], but this also breaks down in the presence of large coherent sets of incorrectly matched pairs. One creative solution in recent work is to use metadata alongside images. ?Geotags? or GIS data when available have been shown to be very effective in deriving a better initialization for bundle adjustment or as a post-processing step to stitch together different components of a reconstruction. In [6], the authors suggest using image timestamps to impose a natural association among images, which is valuable when the images are acquired by a single camera in a temporal sequence but difficult to deploy otherwise. Separate from the metadata approach, in controlled scenes with relatively less occlusion, missing correspondences yield important local cues to infer potentially incorrect image pairs [6, 7]. Very recently, [5] formalized the intuition that incorrect feature correspondences result in anomalous structures in the so-called visibility graph of the features. By looking at a measure of local track quality (from local clustering), one can reason about which associations are likely to be erroneous. This works well when the number of points is very large, but the authors of [5] acknowledge that for datasets like those shown in Fig. 1, it may not help much. In contrast to the above approaches, a number of recent algorithms for the association (or disambiguation) problem argue for global geometric reasoning. In [16], the authors used the number of point correspondences as a measure of certainty, which was then globally optimized to find a maximum-weight set of consistent pairwise associations. The authors in [17] seek consistency of epipopolar geometry constraints for triplets, whereas [18] expands it over larger consistent cliques. The procedure in [16] takes into account loops of associations concurrently with a minimal spanning tree over image to image matches. In summary, the bulk of prior work suggests that locally based statistics over chained transformations will run into problems if the inconsistencies are more global in nature. However, even if the objectives used are global, approximate inference is not known to be robust to coherent noise which is exactly what we face in the presence of duplicate structures [19]. This paper. If we take the idea of reasoning globally about association consistency using triples or higher order loops to an extreme, it implies deriving the likelihood of a specific image to image association conditioned on all other associations. The maximum likelihood expression does not fac2 tor out easily and explicit enumeration quickly becomes intractable. Our approach will make the group structure of image to image relationships explicit. We will also operate on the association graph derived from image pairs but with a key distinguishing feature. The association relationships will now be denoted in terms of a ?certificate?, that is, the transformation which justifies the relationship. The transformation may denote the pose parameters derived from the correspondences or the matching (between features) itself. Other options are possible ? as long as this transformation is a group action from one set to the other. If so, we can carry over the intuition of consistency over larger cliques of images desired in existing works and rewrite those ideas as invariance properties of functions defined on the group. As an example, when the transformation is a matching, each edge in the graph is a permutation, i.e., a member of the symmetric group, Sn . It follows then that a special form of the Laplacian of this graph, derived from the representation theory of the group under consideration, encodes the symmetries of the functions on the group. The key contribution of this paper is to show that the global inference desired in many existing works falls out nicely as a diffusion process using such a Laplacian. We show promising results demonstrating that for various difficult datasets with large repetitive patterns, results from a simple decomposition procedure are, in fact, competitive with those obtained using sophisticated optimization schemes with/without metadata. Finally, we note that the proposed algorithm can either be used standalone to derive meaningful inputs to a bundle adjustment procedure or as a pre-conditioner to other approaches (especially, ones that incorporate timestamps and/or GPS data). 2 Synchronization Consider a collection of m images {I1 , I2 , . . . , Im } of the same object or scene taken from different viewpoints and possibly under different conditions, and assume that a keypoint detector has detected exactly n landmarks (keypoints) {xi1 , xi2 , . . . , xin } in each Ii . Given two images Ii and Ij , the landmark matching problem consists of finding pairs of landmarks xip ? xjp in the two images which correspond to the same physical feature. This is a critical component of several classical computer vision tasks, including structure from motion. Assuming that both images contain exactly the same n landmarks, the matching between Ii and Ij can be described by a permutation ?ji : {1, 2, . . . , n} ? {1, 2, . . . , n} under which xip ? xj?ji (p) . An initial guess for the ?ji matchings is usually provided by local image features, such as SIFT descriptors. However, these matchings individually are very much prone to error, especially in the presence of occlusion and repetitive structures. A major clue to correcting these errors is the constraint that matchings must be consistent, i.e., if ?ji tells us that xip corresponds to xjq , and ?kj tells us that xjq corresponds to xkr , then the permutation ?ki between Ii and Ik must assign xip to xkr . Mathematically, this is a reflection of the fact that if we define the product of two permutations ?1 and ?2 in the usual way as ?3 = ?2 ?1 ?? ?3 (i) = ?2 (?1 (i)) i = 1, 2, . . . , n, then the n! different permutations of {1, 2, . . . , n} form a group. This group is called the symmetric group of order n and denoted Sn . In group theoretic notation, the consistency conditions require that for any Ii , Ij , Ik , the relative matchings between them satisfy ?kj ?ji = ?ki . An equivalent condition is that to each Ii we can associate a base permutation ?i so that ?ji = ?j ?i?1 for any (i, j) pair. Thus, the problem of finding a consistent set of ?ji ?s reduces to that of finding just m base permutations ?1 , . . . , ?m . Problems of this general form, where given some (finite or continuous) group G, one must estimate a matrix (gji )m j,i=1 of group elements obeying consistency relations, are called synchronization problems. Starting with the seminal work of Singer et al. [20] on synchronization over the rotation group for aligning images in cryo-EM, followed by synchronization over the Euclidean group [21], and most recently synchronization over Sn for matching landmarks [22][23], problems of this form have recently generated considerable interest. 2.1 Vector Diffusion Maps In the context of synchronizing three dimensional rotations for cryo-EM, Singer and Wu [24] have proposed a particularly elegant formalism, called Vector Diffusion Maps, which conceives of syn3 chronization as diffusing the base rotation Qi from each image to its neighbors. However, unlike in ordinary diffusion, as Qi diffuses to Ij , the observed Oji relative rotation of Ij to Ii changes Qi to Oji Qi . If all the (Oji )i,j observations were perfectly synchronized, then no matter what path i ? i1 ? i2 ? . . . ? j we took from i to j, the resulting rotation Oj,ip . . . Oi2 ,i1 Oi1 ,i Qi would be the same. However, if some (in many practical cases, the majority) of the Oji ?s are incorrect, then different paths from one vertex to another contribute different rotations that need to be averaged out. A natural choice for the loss that describes the extent to which the Q1 , . . . , Qm imputed base rotations (playing the role of the ?i ?s in the permutation case) satisfy the Oji observations is E(Q1 , . . . , Qm ) = m X wij k Qj ? Oji Qi k2Frob = m X 2 wij k Qj Q? i ? Oji kFrob , (1) i,j=1 i,j=1 where the wij edge weight descibes our confidence in the rotation Oji . A crucial observation is that this loss can be rewritten in the form E(Q1 , . . . , Qm ) = V ?LV , where ? ? ? ? di I ?w21 O21 . . . ?wm1 Om1 Q1 ? ? ? ? .. .. .. (2) L=? V = ? ... ? , ?, . . . ?w1m O1m ?w2m O2m . . . dm I Qm P ?1 ? , the matrix L is symmetric. and di = j6=i wij . Note that since wij = wji , and Oij = Oji = Oji Furthermore, the above is exactly analogous to the way in which in spectral graph theory, (see, P e.g.,[25]) the functional E(f ) = i,j wi,j (f (i) ? f (j))2 describing the ?smoothness? of a function f defined on the vertices of a graph with respect to the graph topology can be written as f ?Lf in terms of the usual graph Laplacian ( ?wi,j i 6= j Li,j = P . w i =j i,k k6=i The consequence of the latter is that (constraining f to have unit norm and excluding constant functions), the function minimizing E(f ) is the eigenvector of L with (second) smallest eigenvalue. Analogously, in synchronizing rotations, the steady state of the diffusion system, where (1) is minimal, can be computed by forming V from the 3 lowest eigenvalue eigenvectors of L, and then identifying Qi with V (i), by which we denote its i?th 3 ? 3 block. The resulting consistent array (Qj Q? i )i,j of imputed relative rotations minimizes the loss (1). 3 Permutation Diffusion Its elegance notwithstanding, the vector diffusion formalism of the previous section seems ill suited for our present purposes of improving the SfM pipeline for two reasons: (1) synchronizing over Sn , which is a finite group, seems much harder than synchronizing over the continuous group of rotations; (2) rather than an actual synchronized array of matchings, what is critical to SfM is to estimate the association graph that captures the extent to which any two images are related to oneanother. The main contribution of the present paper is to show that both of these problems have natural solutions in the formalism of group representations. Our first key observation (already briefly mentioned in [26]) is that the critical step of rewriting the loss (1) in terms of the Laplacian (2) does not depend on any special properties of the rotation group other than the fact (a) rotation matrices are unitary (in fact, orthogonal) (b) if we follow one rotation by another, their matrices simply multiply. In general, for any group G, a complex valued function ? : G ? Cd? ?d? which satisfies ?(g2 g1 ) = ?(g2 )?(g1 ) is called a representation of G. The representation is unitary if ?(g ?1 ) = (?(g))?1 = ?? , where M ? denotes the Hermitian conjugate (conjugate transpose) of M . Thus, we have the following proposition. Proposition 1. Let G be any compact group with identity e and ? : G ? Cd? ?d? be a unitary representation of G. Then given an array of possibly noisy and unsynchronized group elements, (gji )i,j and corresponding positive confidence weights (wji )i,j , the synchronization loss (assuming gii = e for all i) E(h1 , . . . , hm ) = m X i,j=1 w2 w w wji w ?(hj h?1 i ) ? ?(gji ) Frob 4 h1 , . . . , h m ? G can be written in the form E(h1 , . . . , hm ) = V ? L V , where ? ? ? di I ?w21 ?(g21 ) ?(h1 ) ? .. ? ? . .. .. L=? V = ? . ?, . ?w1m ?(g1m ) ?w2m ?(g2m ) ?(hm ) ... ... ? ?wm1 ?(gm1 ) ? .. ?. . dm I (3) To synchronize putative matchings between images, we instantiate this proposition with the approriate unitary representation of the symmetric group. The obvious choice is the so-called defining representation, whose elements are the familiar permutation matrices  1 ?(q) = p ?def (?) = P (?) [P (?)]p,q = 0 otherwise, since the corresponding loss function is E(?1 , . . . , ?m ) = m X wji k P (?j ?i?1 ) ? P (?ji ) k2Frob . (4) i,j=1 The squared Frobenius norm in this expression simply counts the number of mismatches between the observed but noisy permutations ?ji and the inferred permutations ?j ?i?1 . Furthermore, by the results of the previous section, letting Pi ? P (?(i)) and Pbji ? P (?ji ) for notational simplicity, (4) can be written in the form V ? LV with ? ? ? ? di I ?w21 Pb21 . . . ?wm1 Pbm1 P1 ? ? ? ? .. .. .. (5) L=? V = ? ... ? , ?, . . . b b Pm dm I ?w1m P1m ?w2m P2m . . . Therefore, similarly to the rotation case, synchronization over Sn can be solved by forming V from the first d?def = n lowest eigenvectors of L, and extracting each P?i from its i?th n ? n block. Here we must take a little care because unless the ?ji ?s are already synchronized, it is not a priori guaranteed that the resulting block will be a valid permutation matrix. Therefore, analogously to the procedure described in [22], each block V (i) must be first be multiplied by V (1)? , and then a linear assignment procedure used to find the estimated permutation matrix ? bi . The resulting algorithm we call Synchronization by Permutation Diffusion. 4 Uncertain matches and diffusion distance The obvious limitation of our framework, as described so far, is that it assumes that each keypoint in each image has a single counterpart in every other image. This assumption is far from being satisfied in realistic scenarios due to occlusion, repetitive structures, and noisy detections. Most algorithms, including [23] and [22], deal with this problem simply by setting the Pij entry of the Laplacian matrix in (5) equal to a weighted sum of all possible permutations. For example, if landmarks number 1. . . 20 are present in both images, but landmarks 21 . . . 40 are not, then the effective Pij matrix will have a corresponding 20 ? 20 block of all ones in it, rescaled by a factor of 1/20. The consequence of this approach is that each block of the V matrix derived from L by eigendecomposition will also correspond to a distribution over base permutations. In principle, this amounts to replacing the single observed matching ?ji by an appropriate distribution tji (? ) over possible matchings, and concomitantly replacing each ?i with a distribution pi (?). However, if some set of landmarks {u1 , . . . , uk } are occluded in Ii , then each tji will be agnostic with respect to the assignment of these landmarks, and therefore pi will be invariant to what labels are assigned to them. Defining ?u1 ...uk as any permutation that maps 1 7? u1 , . . . , k 7? uk , and regarding Sk as the subgroup of permutations that permute 1, 2, . . . , k amongst themselves but leave k + 1, . . . , n fixed, any set of permutations of the form {?u1 ...uk? ? | ? ? Sk } for some ? ? Sn is called a right Sk ?coset, and is denoted ?u1 ...uk Sk ?. If {u1 , . . . , uk } are occluded in Ii , then pi is constant on each ?u1 ...ukSk ? (i.e., for any choice of ?). Whenever there is occlusion, such invariances will spontaneously appear in the V matrix formed from the eigenvectors, and since they are related to which set of landmarks are hidden or uncertain, the invariances are an important clue about the viewpoint that the image was taken from. An affinity 5 score based on this information is sometimes even more valuable than the synchronized matchings themselves. The invariance structure of pi can be read off easily from its so-called autocorrelation function X ai (?) = pi (??) pi (?). (6) ??Sn In particular, if ? is in the coset ?u1 ...ukSk ??1 whatever ? is, ?? will fall in the u1 ...uk , then P 2 same ?u1 ...ukSk ? coset, so for any such ?, ai (?) = ??Sn pi (?) , which is the maximum value that ai can attain. However, W (i) := V (i) V (1)? only reveals a weighted sum pbi (?) := P ??Sn pi (?) ?(?) = W (i), rather than the full function pi , so we cannot compute (6) directly. Recent years have seen the emergence of a number of applications of Fourier transforms on the symmetric group, which, given a function f : Sn ? R, is defined X fb(?) = f (?) ??(?), ? ? n, ??Sn where the ?? are special, so-called irreducible, representations of Sn , indexed by the ? integer partitions. Due to space restrictions, we leave the details of this construction to the literature, see, e.g., [27, 28, 29]. Suffice to say that while V (i) is not exactly a Fourier component of pi , it can be expressed as a direct sum of Fourier components i hM pbi (?) C V (i) = C ? ??? for some unitary matrix C that is effectively just a basis transform. One of the properties of the Fourier transform is that if h is the cross-correlation of two functions f and g (i.e., h(?) = P b b b(?)? . Consequently, assuming that V (1) has been normal??Sn f (??) g(?)), then h(?) = f (?) g ? ized to ensure that V (1) V (1) = I, i i hM hM pbi (?) pbi (?)? C = (V (i) V (1)) (V (i) V (1))? = V (i) V (i)? b ai (?) C = C ? b ai (?) := C ? ??? ??? is an easily computable matrix that captures essentially all the coset invariance structure encoded in the inferred distribution pi . To compute an affinity score between some Ii and Ij it remains P to compare their coset invariance structures, for example, by computing ( ??Sn ai (?) aj (?))1/2 . Omitting certain multiplicative constants arising in the inverse Fourier transform, again using the correlation theorem, one finds that this is equivalent to ?(i, j) = tr (V (i) V (i)? V (j) V (j)? ) 1/2 , which we call Permutation Diffusion Affinity (PDA). Remarkably, PDA is closely related to the notion of diffusion similarity derived in [24] for rotations, using entirely different, differential geometric tools. Our experiments show that PDA is surprisingly informative about the actual distance between image viewpoints in physical space, and, as easy it is to compute, can greatly improve the performance of the SfM pipeline. 5 Experiments In our experiments we used Permutation Diffusion Maps to infer the image association matrix of various datasets described in the literature. Geometric ambiguities due to large duplicate structures are evident in each of these datasets, in up to 50% of the matches [6], so even sophisticated SfM pipelines run into difficulties. Our approach is to precede the entire SfM engine with one simple preprocessing step. If our preprocessing step generates good image association information, an existing SfM pipeline which is a very mature software with several linear algebra toolboxes and vision libraries integrated together, can provide good reconstructions. While our primary interest is SfM, to illustrate the utility of PDM, we also present experimental results for scene summarization for a set of images [30]. Additional experiments are available on the project website http://pages.cs.wisc.edu/?pachauri/pdm/. 6 Structure from Motion (SfM). We used PDM to generate an image match matrix which is then fed to a state-of-the-art SfM pipeline for 3D reconstruction [8, 9]. As a baseline, we provide these images to a Bundle Adjustment procedure which uses visual features for matching and already has a built-in heuristic outlier removal module. Several other papers have used a similar set of comparisons [6]. For each dataset, SIFT was used to detect and characterize landmarks [31, 32]. We m compute putative pairwise matchings (?ij )m i,j=1 by solving 2 linear independent assignments [33] based on their SIFT features. Image Match Matrix: Permutation matrix representation is used for putative matchings (?ij )m i,j=1 . Here, n is relative large, on the order of 1000. Ideally n is the total number of distinct keypoints in the 3D scene but n is not directly observable. In the experiments, the maximum of keypoints detected across the complete dataset was used to estimate n. Eigenvector based procedure computes weighted affinity matrix. While specialized methods can be used to extract a binary image matrix (such that it optimizes a specified criteria), we used a simple thresholding procedure. 3D reconstruction: We used binary match matrix as an input to a SfM library [8, 9]. Note that we only provide this library the image association hypotheses, leaving all other modules unchanged. With (potentially) good image association information, the SfM modules can sample landmarks more densely and perform bundle adjustment, leaving everything else unchanged. The baseline 3D reconstruction is performed using the same SfM pipeline without intervention. The HOUSE sequence has three instances of similar looking houses, see Figure 1. The diffusion process accumulates evidence and eventually provides strongly connected images in the data association matrix, see Figure 2(a). Warm colors correspond to high affinity between pairs of images. The binary match matrix was obtained by applying a threshold on the weighted matrix, see Figure 2(b). We used this matrix to define the image matching for feature tracks. This means that features are only matched between images that are connected in our match matrix. The SfM pipeline was given these image matches as a hypotheses to explain how the images are ?connected?. The resulting reconstruction correctly gives three houses, see Figure 2(c). The same SfM pipeline when allowed to track features automatically with an outlier removal heuristic, resulted in a folded reconstruction, see Figure 1(b). One may ask if more specialized heuristics will do better, such as time stamps, as suggested in [6]. However, experimental results in [5] and others, strongly suggest that these datasets still remain challenging. (a) (b) (c) Figure 2: House sequence: (a) Weighted image association matrix. (b) Binary image match matrix. (c) PDM dense reconstruction. The CUP dataset has multiple images of a 180 degree symmetric cup from all sides, Figure 3(a). PDM reveals a strongly connected component along the diagonal for this dataset, shown in warm colors in Figure 3(b). Our global reasoning over the space of permutations substantially mitigates coherent errors. The binary match matrix was obtained by thresholding the weighted matrix, see Figure 3(c). As is evident from the reconstructions, the baseline method only reconstruct a ?half cup?. Due to the structural ambiguity, it also concludes that the cup has two handles, Figure 4(b). PDM reconstruction gives a perfect reconstruction of the ?full cup? with one handle as expected, see Figure 4(a). The OAT dataset contains two instances of a red oat box, one on the left of the (a) (b) (c) Figure 3: (a) Representative images from CUP dataset. (b) Weighted data association matrix. (c) Binary data association matrix. 7 (a) (b) Figure 4: CUP dataset. (a) PDM dense reconstruction. (b) Baseline dense reconstruction. wheat things, and another on the right, see Figure 5(a). The PDM weighted match matrix and binary match matrix successfully discover strongly connected components, see Figure 5(b-c). The baseline method confused the two oat boxes as one, and reconstructed only a single box, see Figure 6(b). Moreover, the structural ambiguity splits the wheat thins into two pieces. On the other hand, PDM gives a nice reconstruction of the two oat boxes with the entire wheat things in the middle, Figure 6(a). Several more experiments (with videos), can be found on the project website. (a) (b) (c) Figure 5: (a) Representative images from OAT dataset. (b) Weighted data association matrix. (c) Binary data association matrix. (a) (b) Figure 6: OAT dataset. (a) PDM dense reconstruction. (b) Baseline dense reconstruction. 6 Conclusions Permutation diffusion maps can significantly improve the quality of the correspondences found in image association problems, even when a large number of the initial visual feature matches are erroneous. Our experiments on a variety of challenging datasets from the literature give strong evidence supporting the hypothesis that deploying the proposed formulation, even as a preconditioner, can significantly mitigate problems encountered in performing structure from motion on scenes with repetitive structures. The proposed model can easily generalize to other applications, outside computer vision, involving multi-matching problems. Acknowledgments This work was supported in part by NSF?1320344, NSF?1320755, and funds from the University of Wisconsin Graduate School. We thank Charles Dyer and Li Zhang for useful discussions and suggestions. References [1] D. Crandall, A. Owens, N. Snavely, and D. P. Huttenlocher. Discrete-continuous optimization for largescale structure from motion. In CVPR, 2011. [2] A. Nguyen, M. Ben-Chen, K. Welnicka, Y. Ye, and L. Guibas. An optimization approach to improving collections of shape maps. In Computer Graphics Forum, volume 30, 2011. 8 [3] R. Li, H. Zhu, et al. De novo assembly of human genomes with massively parallel short read sequencing. Genome research, 20, 2010. [4] M. Pop, S. L. Salzberg, and M. Shumway. Genome sequence assembly: Algorithms and issues. IEEE Computer, 35, 2002. [5] K. Wilson and N. Snavely. Network principles for SfM: Disambiguating repeated structures with local context. In ICCV, 2013. [6] R. Roberts, S. Sinha, R. Szeliski, and D. Steedly. Structure from motion for scenes with large duplicate structures. In CVPR, 2011. [7] N. Jiang, P. Tan, and L. F. Cheong. Seeing double without confusion: Structure-from-motion in highly ambiguous scenes. In CVPR, 2012. [8] C. Wu. Towards linear-time incremental structure from motion. In 3DTV-Conference, International Conference on, 2013. [9] C. Wu, S. Agarwal, B. Curless, and S. M. Seitz. Multicore bundle adjustment. In CVPR, 2011. [10] F. Schaffalitzky and A. Zisserman. Multi-view matching for unordered image sets, or ?how do I organize my holiday snaps??. In ECCV. 2002. [11] N. Snavely, S. M. Seitz, and R. Szeliski. Photo tourism: exploring photo collections in 3D. In ACM transactions on graphics (TOG), volume 25, 2006. [12] D. Martinec and T. Pajdla. Robust rotation and translation estimation in multiview reconstruction. In CVPR, 2007. [13] M. Havlena, A. Torii, J. Knopp, and T. Pajdla. Randomized structure from motion based on atomic 3d models from camera triplets. In CVPR, 2009. [14] S. N. Sinha, D. Steedly, and R. Szeliski. A multi-stage linear approach to structure from motion. In Trends and Topics in Computer Vision. 2012. [15] O. Ozyesil, A. Singer, and R. Basri. Camera motion estimation by convex programming. CoRR, 2013. [16] O. Enqvist, F. Kahl, and C. Olsson. Non-sequential structure from motion. In ICCV Workshops, 2011. [17] C. Zach, A. Irschara, and H. Bischof. What can missing correspondences tell us about 3d structure and motion? In CVPR, 2008. [18] C. Zach, M. Klopschitz, and M. Pollefeys. Disambiguating visual relations using loop constraints. In CVPR, 2010. [19] V. M. Govindu. Robustness in motion averaging. In Computer Vision?ACCV 2006, pages 457?466. Springer, 2006. [20] A. Singer and Y. Shkolnisky. Three-dimensional structure determination from common lines in cryo-EM by eigenvectors and semidefinite programming. SIAM Journal on Imaging Sciences, 4, 2011. [21] M. Cucuringu, Y. Lipman, and A. Singer. Sensor network localization by eigenvector synchronization over the Euclidean group. ACM Transactions on Sensor Networks (TOSN), 8, 2012. [22] D. Pachauri, R. Kondor, and V. Singh. Solving the multi-way matching problem by permutation synchronization. NIPS, 2013. [23] Qi-Xing Huang and Leonidas Guibas. Consistent shape maps via semidefinite programming. Computer Graphics Forum, 2013. [24] A. Singer and H.-T. Wu. Vector diffusion maps and the connection Laplacian. Communications of Pure and Applied Mathematics, 2011. [25] F. R. K. Chung. Spectral graph theory (cbms regional conference series in mathematics, no. 92). 1996. [26] A Singer. Angular synchronization by eigenvectors and semidefinite programming. Applied and computational harmonic analysis, 30, 2011. [27] J. Huang, C. Guestrin, and L. Guibas. Fourier theoretic probabilistic inference over permutations. JMLR, 2009. [28] R. Kondor. A Fourier space algorithm for solving quadratic assignment problems. In SODA, 2010. [29] D. Rockmore, P. Kostelec, W. Hordijk, and P. F. Stadler. Fast fourier transforms for fitness landscapes. Appl. and Comp. Harmonic Anal., 2002. [30] S. Zhu, L. Zhang, and B. M Smith. Model evolution: An incremental approach to non-rigid structure from motion. In CVPR, 2010. [31] D.G. Lowe. Distinctive image features from scale-invariant keypoints. IJCV, 60, 2004. [32] K. Mikolajczyk and C. Schmid. Scale & affine invariant interest point detectors. IJCV, 60, 2004. [33] H.W. Kuhn. The Hungarian method for the assignment problem. Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, 2, 1955. 9
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Low-Rank Time-Frequency Synthesis Matthieu Kowalski? Laboratoire des Signaux et Syst`emes (CNRS, Sup?elec & Universit?e Paris-Sud) Gif-sur-Yvette, France kowalski@lss.supelec.fr C?edric F?evotte Laboratoire Lagrange (CNRS, OCA & Universit?e de Nice) Nice, France cfevotte@unice.fr Abstract Many single-channel signal decomposition techniques rely on a low-rank factorization of a time-frequency transform. In particular, nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) of the spectrogram ? the (power) magnitude of the short-time Fourier transform (STFT) ? has been considered in many audio applications. In this setting, NMF with the Itakura-Saito divergence was shown to underly a generative Gaussian composite model (GCM) of the STFT, a step forward from more empirical approaches based on ad-hoc transform and divergence specifications. Still, the GCM is not yet a generative model of the raw signal itself, but only of its STFT. The work presented in this paper fills in this ultimate gap by proposing a novel signal synthesis model with low-rank time-frequency structure. In particular, our new approach opens doors to multi-resolution representations, that were not possible in the traditional NMF setting. We describe two expectation-maximization algorithms for estimation in the new model and report audio signal processing results with music decomposition and speech enhancement. 1 Introduction Matrix factorization methods currently enjoy a large popularity in machine learning and signal processing. In the latter field, the input data is usually a time-frequency transform of some original time series x(t). For example, in the audio setting, nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) is commonly used to decompose magnitude or power spectrograms into elementary components [1]; the spectrogram, say S, is approximately factorized into WH, where W is the dictionary matrix collecting spectral patterns in its columns and H is the activation matrix. The approximate WH is generally of lower rank than S, unless additional constraints are imposed on the factors. NMF was originally designed in a deterministic setting [2]: a measure of fit between S and WH is minimized with respect to (w.r.t) W and H. Choosing the ?right? measure for a specific type of data and task is not straightforward. Furthermore, NMF-based spectral decompositions often arbitrarily discard phase information: only the magnitude of the complex-valued short-time Fourier transform (STFT) is considered. To remedy these limitations, a generative probabilistic latent factor model of the STFT was proposed in [3]. Denoting by {yf n } the complex-valued coefficients of the STFT of x(t), where f and n index frequencies and time frames, respectively, the so-called Gaussian Composite Model (GCM) introduced in [3] writes simply yf n ? Nc (0, [WH]f n ), (1) where Nc refers to the circular complex-valued normal distribution.1 As shown by Eq. (1), in the GCM the STFT is assumed centered (reflecting an equivalent assumption in the time domain which ? Authorship based on alphabetical order to reflect an equal contribution. A random variable x has distribution Nc (x|?, ?) = (??)?1 exp ?(|x ? ?|2 /?) if and only if its real and imaginary parts are independent and with distribution N (Re(?), ?/2) and N (Im(?), ?/2), respectively. 1 1 is valid for many signals such as audio signals) and its variance has a low-rank structure. Under these assumptions, the negative log-likelihood ? log p(Y|W, H) of the STFT matrix Y and parameters W and H is equal, up to a constant, to the Itakura-Saito (IS) divergence DIS (S|WH) between the power spectrogram S = |Y|2 and WH [3]. The GCM is a step forward from traditional NMF approaches that fail to provide a valid generative model of the STFT itself ? other approaches have only considered probabilistic models of the magnitude spectrogram under Poisson or multinomial assumptions, see [1] for a review. Still, the GCM is not yet a generative model of the raw signal x(t) itself, but of its STFT. The work reported in this paper fills in this ultimate gap. It describes a novel signal synthesis model with low-rank time-frequency structure. Besides improved accuracy of representation thanks to modeling at lowest level, our new approach opens doors to multi-resolution representations, that were not possible in the traditional NMF setting. Because of the synthesis approach, we may represent the signal as a sum of layers with their own time resolution, and their own latent low-rank structure. The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 introduces the new low-rank time-frequency synthesis (LRTFS) model. Section 3 addresses estimation in LRTFS. We present two maximum likelihood estimation approaches with companion EM algorithms. Section 4 describes how LRTFS can be adapted to multiple-resolution representations. Section 5 reports experiments with audio applications, namely music decomposition and speech enhancement. Section 6 concludes. 2 2.1 The LRTFS model Generative model The LRTFS model is defined by the following set of equations. For t = 1, . . . , T , f = 1, . . . , F , n = 1, . . . , N : X x(t) = ?f n ?f n (t) + e(t) (2) fn ?f n ? Nc (0, [WH]f n ) e(t) ? Nc (0, ?) (3) (4) For generality and simplicity of presentation, all the variables in Eq. (2) are assumed complexvalued. In the real case, the hermitian symmetry of the time-frequency (t-f) frame can be exploited: one only needs to consider the atoms relative to positive frequencies, generate the corresponding complex signal and then generate the real signal satisfying the hermitian symmetry on the coefficients. W and H are nonnegative matrices of dimensions F ? K and K ? N , respectively.2 For a fixed t-f point (f, n), the signal ?f n = {?f n (t)}t , referred to as atom, is the element of an arbitrary t-f basis, for example a Gabor frame (a collection of tapered oscillating functions with short temporal support). e(t) is an identically and independently distributed (i.i.d) Gaussian residual term. The variables {?f n } are synthesis coefficients, assumed conditionally Loosely speaking, P independent. ? they are dual of the analysis coefficients, defined by yf n = x(t)? (t). The coefficients of fn t the STFT can be interpreted as analysis coefficients obtained with a Gabor frame. The synthesis coefficients are assumed centered, ensuring that x(t) has zero expectation as well. A low-rank latent structure is imposed on their variance. This is in contrast with the GCM introduced at Eq. (1), that instead imposes a low-rank structure on the variance of the analysis coefficients. 2.2 Relation to sparse Bayesian learning Eq. (2) may be written in matrix form as x = ?? + e , (5) where x and e are column vectors of dimension T with coefficients x(t) and e(t), respectively. Given an arbitrary mapping from (f, n) ? {1, . . . , F } ? {1, . . . , N } to m ? {1, . . . , M }, where M = F N , ? is a column vector of dimension M with coefficients {?f n }f n and ? is a matrix of size T ? M with columns {?f n }f n . In the following we will sometimes slightly abuse notations by 2 In the general unsupervised setting where both W and H are estimated, WH must be low-rank such that K < F and K < N . However, in supervised settings where W is known, we may have K > F . 2 indexing the coefficients of ? (and other variables) by either m or (f, n). It should be understood that m and (f, n) are in one-to-one correspondence and the notation should be clear from the context. Let us denote by v the column vector of dimension M with coefficients vf n = [WH]f n . Then, from Eq. (3), we may write that the prior distribution for ? is p(?|v) = Nc (?|0, diag(v)) . (6) Ignoring the low-rank constraint, Eqs. (5)-(6) resemble sparse Bayesian learning (SBL), as introduced in [4, 5], where it is shown that marginal likelihood estimation of the variance induces sparse solutions of v and thus ?. The essential difference between our model and SBL is that the coefficients are no longer unstructured in LRTFS. Indeed, in SBL, each coefficient ?m has a free variance parameter vm . This property is fundamental to the sparsity-inducing effect of SBL [4]. In contrast, in LRTFS, the variances are now tied together and such that vm = vf n = [WH]f n . 2.3 Latent components reconstruction As its name suggests, the GCM described by Eq. (1) is a composite model, in the following sense. We may introduce independent complex-valued latent components ykf n ? Nc (0, wf k hkn ) and PK write yf n = k=1 ykf n . Marginalizing the components from this simple Gaussian additive model leads to Eq. (1). In this perspective, the GCM implicitly assumes the data STFT Y to be a sum of elementary STFT components Yk = {ykf n }f n . In the GCM, the components can be reconstructed after estimation of W and H , using any statistical estimator. In particular, the minimum mean square estimator (MMSE), given by the posterior mean, reduces to so-called Wiener filtering: y?kf n = wf k hkn yf n . [WH]f n (7) The components may then be STFT-inversed to obtain temporal reconstructions that form the output of the overall signal decomposition approach. Of course, the same principle applies to LRTFS. The synthesis coefficients ?f n may equally be P written as a sum of latent components, such that ?f n = k ?kf n , with ?kf n ? Nc (0, wf k hkn ). Denoting by ?k the column vector of dimension M with coefficients {?kf n }f n , Eq. (5) may be written as X X x= ??k + e = ck + e , (8) k k where ck = ??k . The component ck is the ?temporal expression? of spectral pattern wk , the k th column of W. Given estimates of W and H, the components may be reconstructed in various way. The equivalent of the Wiener filtering approach used traditionally with the GCM would consist in ?MMSE ? MMSE ? MMSE ? MMSE computing c = ?? , with ? = E{?k |x, W, H}. Though the expression of ? k k k k is available in closed form it requires the inversion of a too large matrix, of dimensions T ? T (see ?k = ?? ? k with ? ? k = E{?k |?, ? W, H}, where ? ? is the also Section 3.2). We will instead use c ? k are given by available estimate of ?. In this case, the coefficients of ? ? ? kf n = 3 wf k hkn ? ?f n. [WH]f n (9) Estimation in LRTFS We now consider two approaches to estimation of W, H and ? in the LRTFS model defined by Eqs. (2)-(4). The first approach, described in the next section is maximum joint likelihood estimation (MJLE). It relies on the minimization of ? log p(x, ?|W, H, ?). The second approach is maximum marginal likelihood estimation (MMLE), described in Section 3.2. It relies on the minimization of ? log p(x|W, H, ?), i.e., involves the marginalization of ? from the joint likelihood, following the principle of SBL. Though we present MMLE for the sake of completeness, our current implementation does not scale with the dimensions involved in the audio signal processing applications presented in Section 5, and large-scale algorithms for MMLE are left as future work. 3 3.1 Maximum joint likelihood estimation (MJLE) Objective. MJLE relies on the optimization of def CJL (?, W, H, ?) = ? log p(x, ?|W, H, ?) (10) 1 = kx ? ??k22 + DIS (|?|2 |v) + log(|?|2 ) + M log ? , (11) ? P where we recall that v is the vectorized version of WH and where DIS (A|B) = ij dIS (aij |bij ) is the IS divergence between nonnegative matrices (or vectors, as a special case), with dIS (x|y) = (x/y) ? log(x/y) ? 1. The first term in Eq. (11) measures the discrepancy between the raw signal and its approximation. The second term ensures that the synthesis coefficients are approximately low-rank. Unexpectedly, a third term that favors sparse solutions of ?, thanks to the log function, naturally appears from the derivation of the joint likelihood. The objective function (11) is not convex and the EM algorithm described next may only ensure convergence to a local solution. EM algorithm. In order to minimize CJL , we employ an EM algorithm based on the architecture proposed by Figueiredo & Nowak [6]. It consists of rewriting Eq. (5) as p z = ? + ? e1 , (12) x = ?z + e2 , (13) where z acts as a hidden variable, e1 ? Nc (0, I), e2 ? Nc (0, ?I ? ???? ), with the operator ?? denoting Hermitian transpose. Provided that ? ? ?/?? , where ?? is the largest eigenvalue of ??? , the likelihood function p(x|?, ?) under Eqs. (12)-(13) is the same as under Eq. (5). Denoting the set of parameters by ? JL = {?, W, H, ?}, the EM algorithm relies on the iterative minimization of Z ? ? JL )dz , Q(? JL |? JL ) = ? log p(x, ?, z|W, H, ?)p(z|x, ? (14) z ? JL acts as the current parameter value. Loosely speaking, the EM algorithm relies on the where ? idea that if z was known, then the estimation of ? and of the other parameters would boil down to the mere white noise denoising problem described by Eq. (12). As z is not known, the posterior mean value w.r.t z of the joint likelihood is considered instead. The complete likelihood in Eq. (14) may be decomposed as log p(x, ?, z|W, H, ?) = log p(x|z, ?) + log p(z|?) + log p(?|WH). (15) The hidden variable posterior simplifies to p(z|x, ? JL ) = p(z|x, ?). From there, using standard manipulations with Gaussian distributions, the (i + 1)th iteration of the resulting algorithm writes as follows. ? E-step: z(i) = E{z|x, ?(i) } = ?(i) + (i) ?? (x ? ??(i) ) (16) ? (i) vf n (i+1) (i) M-step: ?(f, n), ?f n = (i) zf n (17) vf n + ?   X (i+1) (W(i+1) , H(i+1) ) = arg min DIS |?f n |2 |[WH]f n (18) W,H?0 ?(i+1) = 1 kx ? ??(i+1) k2F T (i) fn (19) In Eq. (17), vf n is a shorthand for [W(i) H(i) ]f n . Eq. (17) is simply the application of Wiener filtering to Eq. (12) with z = z(i) . Eq. (18) amounts to solving a NMF with the IS divergence; it may be solved using majorization-minimization, resulting in the standard multiplicative update rules given in [3]. A local solution might only be obtained with this approach, but this is still decreasing the negative log-likelihood at every iteration. The update rule for ? is not the one that exactly derives from the EM procedure (this one has a more complicated expression), but it still decreases the negative log-likelihood at every iteration as explained in [6]. 4 Note that the overall algorithm is rather computationally friendly as no matrix inversion is required. The ?? and ?? x operations in Eq. (16) correspond to analysis and synthesis operations that can be realized efficiently using optimized packages, such as the Large Time-Frequency Analysis Toolbox (LTFAT) [7]. 3.2 Maximum marginal likelihood estimation (MMLE) Objective. The second estimation method relies on the optimization of def CML (W, H, ?) = ? log p(x|W, H, ?) Z = ? log p(x|?, ?)p(?|WH)d? (20) (21) ? It corresponds to the ?type-II? maximum likelihood procedure employed in [4, 5]. By treating ? as a nuisance parameter, the number of parameters involved in the data likelihood is significantly reduced, yielding more robust estimation with fewer local minima in the objective function [5]. EM algorithm. In order to minimize CML , we may use the EM architecture described in [4, 5] that quite naturally uses ? has the hidden data. Denoting the set of parameters by ? ML = {W, H, ?}, the EM algorithm relies on the iterative minimization of Z ? ? ML )d?, Q(? ML |? ML ) = ? log p(x, ?|W, H, ?)p(?|x, ? (22) ? ? ML acts as the current parameter value. As the derivations closely follow [4, 5], we skip where ? details for brevity. Using rather standard results about Gaussian distributions the (i + 1)th iteration of the algorithm writes as follows. E-step : ?(i) = (?? ?/?(i) + diag(v(i?1) )?1 )?1 (23) ?(i) = ?(i) ?? x/?(i) 2 (i) (24) (i) (i) (i) 2 = E{|?| |x, v , ? } = diag(? ) + |? |   X (i) (W(i+1) , H(i+1) ) = arg min DIS vf n |[WH]f n v M-step : (i) W,H?0 ?(i+1) fn   XM 1 (i) (i) (i) 2 (i) = kx ? ?? k2 + ? (1 ? ?mm /vm ) m=1 T (25) (26) (27) The complexity of this algorithm can be problematic as it involves the computation of the inverse of a matrix of size M in the expression of ?(i) . M is typically at least twice larger than T , the signal length. Using the Woodbury matrix identity, the expression of ?(i) can be reduced to the inversion of a matrix of size T , but this is still too large for most signal processing applications (e.g., 3 min of music sampled at CD quality makes T in the order of 106 ). As such, we will discard MMLE in the experiments of Section 5 but the methodology presented in this section can be relevant to other problems with smaller dimensions. 4 Multi-resolution LRTFS Besides the advantage of modeling the raw signal itself, and not its STFT, another major strength of LRTFS is that it offers the possibility of multi-resolution modeling. The latter consists of representing a signal as a sum of t-f atoms with different temporal (and thus frequency) resolutions. This is for example relevant in audio where transients, such as the attacks of musical notes, are much shorter than sustained parts such as the tonal components (the steady, harmonic part of musical notes). Another example is speech where different classes of phonemes can have different resolutions. At even higher level, stationarity of female speech holds at shorter resolution than male speech. Because traditional spectral factorizations approaches work on the transformed data, the time resolution is set once for all at feature computation and cannot be adapted during decomposition. In contrast, LRTFS can accommodate multiple t-f bases in the following way. Assume for simplicity that x is to be expanded on the union of two frames ?a and ?b , with common column size T 5 and with t-f grids of sizes Fa ? Na and Fb ? Nb , respectively. ?a may be for example a Gabor frame with short time resolution and ?b a Gabor frame with larger resolution ? such a setting has been considered in many audio applications, e.g., [8, 9], together with sparse synthesis coefficients models. The multi-resolution LRTFS model becomes x = ?a ? a + ?b ? b + e (28) ?(f, n) ? {1, . . . , Fa } ? {1, . . . , Na }, ?a,f n ? Nc ([Wa Ha ]f n ) , ?(f, n) ? {1, . . . , Fb } ? {1, . . . , Nb }, ?b,f n ? Nc ([Wb Hb ]f n ) , (29) (30) with and where {?a,f n }f n and {?b,f n }f n are the coefficients of ?a and ?b , respectively. By stacking the bases and synthesis coefficients into ? = [?a ?b ] and ? = [?Ta ?Tb ]T and introducing a latent variable z = [zTa zTb ]T , the negative joint log-likelihood ? log p(x, ?|Wa , Ha , Wb , Hb , ?) in the multi-resolution LRTFS model can be optimized using the EM algorithm described in Section 3.1. The resulting algorithm at iteration (i + 1) writes as follows. ? (i) (i) (i) E-step: for ` = {a, b}, z` = ?` + ??` (x ? ?a ?(i) (31) a ? ?b ?b ) ? (i) v`,f n (i) (i+1) zf n (32) M-step: for ` = {a, b}, ?(f, n) ? {1, . . . , F` } ? {1, . . . , N` }, ?`,f n = (i) v`,f n + ?   X (i+1) (i+1) (i+1) for ` = {a, b}, (W` , H` ) = arg min DIS |?`,f n |2 |[W` H` ]f n (33) W` ,H` ?0 ? (i+1) = kx ? ?a ?(i+1) a ? fn (i+1) 2 ?b ? b k2 /T (34) The complexity of the algorithm remains fully compatible with signal processing applications. Of course, the proposed setting can be extended to more than two bases. 5 Experiments We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach on two experiments. The first one, purely illustrative, decomposes a jazz excerpt into two layers (tonal and transient), plus a residual layer, according to the hybrid/morphological model presented in [8, 10]. The second one is a speech enhancement problem, based on a semi-supervised source separation approach in the spirit of [11]. Even though we provided update rules for ? for the sake of completeness, this parameter was not estimated in our experiments, but instead treated as an hyperparameter, like in [5, 6]. Indeed, the estimation of ? with all the other parameters free was found to perform poorly in practice, a phenomenon observed with SBL as well. 5.1 Hybrid decomposition of music We consider a 6 s jazz excerpt sampled at 44.1 kHz corrupted with additive white Gaussian noise with 20 dB input Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR). The hybrid model aims to decompose the signal as x = xtonal + xtransient + e = ?tonal ?tonal + ?transient ?transient + e , (35) using the multi-resolution LRTFS method described in Section 4. As already mentionned, a classical design consists of working with Gabor frames. We use a 2048 samples-long (? 46 ms) Hann window for the tonal layer, and a 128 samples-long (? 3 ms) Hann window for the transient layer, both with a 50% time overlap. The number of latent components in the two layers is set to K = 3. We experimented several values for the hyperparameter ? and selected the results leading to best output SNR (about 26 dB). The estimated components are shown at Fig. 1. When listening to the signal components (available in the supplementary material), one can identify the hit-hat in the first and second components of the transient layer, and the bass and piano attacks in the third component. In the tonal layer, one can identify the bass and some piano in the first component, some piano in the second component, and some hit-hat ?ring? in the third component. 6 4 4 1.5 1.5 1 Frequency 1.5 1 0.5 0 0 1 2 3 Time 4 1 0.5 0 0 5 4 1 2 3 Time 4 0 0 5 4 x 10 x 10 1.5 1.5 1.5 Frequency 2 0.5 1 0.5 0 0 1 2 3 Time 4 4 1 2 3 Time 4 0 0 5 x 10 1.5 1.5 Frequency 1.5 Frequency 2 1 0.5 0 0 1 2 3 Time 4 5 1 2 3 Time 4 5 1 2 3 Time 4 5 x 10 2 0.5 5 4 2 1 4 1 4 x 10 3 Time 0.5 0 0 5 2 x 10 2 1 1 4 2 Frequency Frequency x 10 2 0.5 Frequency 4 x 10 2 Frequency Frequency x 10 2 0 0 1 0.5 1 2 3 Time 4 5 0 0 Figure 1: Top: spectrogram of the original signal (left), estimated transient coefficients log |?transient | (center), estimated tonal coefficients log |?tonal | (right). Middle: the 3 latent components (of rank 1) from the transient layer. Bottom: the 3 latent components (of rank 1) from the tonal layer. 5.2 Speech enhancement The second experiment considers a semi-supervised speech enhancement example (treated as a single-channel source separation problem). The goal is to recover a speech signal corrupted by a texture sound, namely applauses. The synthesis model considered is given by     speech noise noise x = ?tonal ?speech + ? + ? ? + ? (36) transient tonal transient + e, tonal transient with and   speech train ?speech , tonal ? Nc 0, Wtonal Htonal   speech train ?speech ? N 0, W H c transient transient transient ,  noise noise ?noise tonal ? Nc 0, Wtonal Htonal ,  noise noise ?noise transient ? Nc 0, Wtransient Htransient . (37) (38) train train Wtonal and Wtransient are fixed pre-trained dictionaries of dimension K = 500, obtained from 30 min of training speech containing male and female speakers. The training data, with sampling rate noise noise 16kHz, is extracted from the TIMIT database [12]. The noise dictionaries Wtonal and Wtransient are learnt from the noisy data, using K = 2. The two t-f bases are Gabor frames with Hann window of length 512 samples (? 32 ms) for the tonal layer and 32 samples (? 2 ms) for the transient layer, both with 50% overlap. The hyperparameter ? is gradually decreased to a negligible value during iterations (resulting in a negligible residual e), a form of warm-restart strategy [13]. We considered 10 test signals composed of 10 different speech excerpts (from the TIMIT dataset as well, among excerpts not used for training) mixed in the middle of a 7 s-long applause sample. For every test signal, the estimated speech signal is computed as ? = ?tonal ? ? speech ? speech x tonal + ?transient ? transient 7 (39) Noisy signal: short window STFT analysis 8000 7000 7000 6000 6000 5000 5000 Frequency Frequency Noisy signal: long window STFT analysis 8000 4000 3000 4000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 0 1 2 3 Time 4 5 6 0 0 7 1 8000 8000 7000 7000 6000 6000 5000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 2 3 Time 4 5 Time 4 5 6 7 6 7 3000 1000 1 3 4000 2000 0 0 2 Denoised signal: Transient Layer Frequency Frequency Denoised signal: Tonal Layer 6 0 0 7 1 2 3 Time 4 5 Figure 2: Time-frequency representations of the noisy data (top) and of the estimated tonal and transient layers from the speech (bottom). and a SNR improvement is computed as the difference between the output and input SNRs. With our approach, the average SNR improvement other the 10 test signals was 6.6 dB. Fig. 2 displays the spectrograms of one noisy test signal with short and long windows, and the clean speech synthesis coefficients estimated in the two layers. As a baseline, we applied IS-NMF in a similar setting using one Gabor transform with a window of intermediate length (256 samples, ? 16 ms). The average SNR improvement was 6 dB in that case. We also applied the standard OMLSA speech enhancement method [14] (using the implementation available from the author with default parameters) and the average SNR improvement was 4.6 dB with this approach. Other experiments with other noise types (such as helicopter and train sounds) gave similar trends of results. Sound examples are provided in the supplementary material. 6 Conclusion We have presented a new model that bridges the gap between t-f synthesis and traditional NMF approaches. The proposed algorithm for maximum joint likelihood estimation of the synthesis coefficients and their low-rank variance can be viewed as an iterative shrinkage algorithm with an additional Itakura-Saito NMF penalty term. In [15], Elad explains in the context of sparse representations that soft thresholding of analysis coefficients corresponds to the first iteration of the forwardbackward algorithm for LASSO/basis pursuit denoising. Similarly, Itakura-Saito NMF followed by Wiener filtering correspond to the first iteration of the proposed EM algorithm for MJLE. As opposed to traditional NMF, LRTFS accommodates multi-resolution representations very naturally, with no extra difficulty at the estimation level. The model can be extended in a straightforward manner to various additional penalties on the matrices W or H (such as smoothness or sparsity). Future work will include the design of a scalable algorithm for MMLE, using for example message passing [16], and a comparison of MJLE and MMLE for LRTFS. Moreover, our generative model can be considered for more general inverse problems such as multichannel audio source separation [17]. More extensive experimental studies are planned in this direction. Acknowledgments The authors are grateful to the organizers of the Modern Methods of Time-Frequency Analysis Semester held at the Erwin Schr?oedinger Institute in Vienna in December 2012, for arranging a very stimulating event where the presented work was initiated. 8 References [1] P. Smaragdis, C. F?evotte, G. Mysore, N. Mohammadiha, and M. Hoffman. Static and dynamic source separation using nonnegative factorizations: A unified view. IEEE Signal Processing Magazine, 31(3):66?75, May 2014. [2] D. D. Lee and H. S. Seung. Learning the parts of objects with nonnegative matrix factorization. Nature, 401:788?791, 1999. [3] C. F?evotte, N. Bertin, and J.-L. Durrieu. Nonnegative matrix factorization with the ItakuraSaito divergence. With application to music analysis. Neural Computation, 21(3):793?830, Mar. 2009. [4] M. E. Tipping. Sparse Bayesian learning and the relevance vector machine. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 1:211?244, 2001. [5] D. P. Wipf and B. D. Rao. Sparse bayesian learning for basis selection. IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 52(8):2153?2164, Aug. 2004. [6] M. Figueiredo and R. Nowak. An EM algorithm for wavelet-based image restoration. IEEE Transactions on Image Processing, 12(8):906?916, Aug. 2003. [7] Z. Pr?us?a, P. S?ndergaard, P. Balazs, and N. Holighaus. LTFAT: A Matlab/Octave toolbox for sound processing. In Proc. 10th International Symposium on Computer Music Multidisciplinary Research (CMMR), pages 299?314, Marseille, France, Oct. 2013. [8] L. Daudet and B. Torr?esani. Hybrid representations for audiophonic signal encoding. Signal Processing, 82(11):1595 ? 1617, 2002. [9] M. Kowalski and B. Torr?esani. Sparsity and persistence: mixed norms provide simple signal models with dependent coefficients. Signal, Image and Video Processing, 3(3):251?264, 2009. [10] M. Elad, J.-L. Starck, D. L. Donoho, and P. Querre. Simultaneous cartoon and texture image inpainting using morphological component analysis (MCA). Journal on Applied and Computational Harmonic Analysis, 19:340?358, Nov. 2005. [11] P. Smaragdis, B. Raj, and M. V. Shashanka. Supervised and semi-supervised separation of sounds from single-channel mixtures. In Proc. 7th International Conference on Independent Component Analysis and Signal Separation (ICA), London, UK, Sep. 2007. [12] TIMIT: acoustic-phonetic continuous speech corpus. Linguistic Data Consortium, 1993. [13] A. Hale, W. Yin, and Y. Zhang. Fixed-point continuation for `1 -minimization: Methodology and convergence. SIAM Journal on Optimisation, 19(3):1107?1130, 2008. [14] I. Cohen. Noise spectrum estimation in adverse environments: Improved minima controlled recursive averaging. IEEE Transactions on Speech and Audio Processing, 11(5):466?475, 2003. [15] M. Elad. Why simple shrinkage is still relevant for redundant representations? IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 52(12):5559?5569, 2006. [16] M. W. Seeger. Bayesian inference and optimal design for the sparse linear model. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 9:759?813, 2008. [17] A. Ozerov and C. F?evotte. Multichannel nonnegative matrix factorization in convolutive mixtures for audio source separation. IEEE Transactions on Audio, Speech and Language Processing, 18(3):550?563, Mar. 2010. 9
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A State-Space Model for Decoding Auditory Attentional Modulation from MEG in a Competing-Speaker Environment Sahar Akram1,2 , Jonathan Z. Simon1,2,3 , Shihab Shamma1,2 , and Behtash Babadi1,2 1 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, 2 Institute for Systems Research, 3 Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park, MD 20742, USA {sakram,jzsimon,sas,behtash}@umd.edu Abstract Humans are able to segregate auditory objects in a complex acoustic scene, through an interplay of bottom-up feature extraction and top-down selective attention in the brain. The detailed mechanism underlying this process is largely unknown and the ability to mimic this procedure is an important problem in artificial intelligence and computational neuroscience. We consider the problem of decoding the attentional state of a listener in a competing-speaker environment from magnetoencephalographic (MEG) recordings from the human brain. We develop a behaviorally inspired state-space model to account for the modulation of the MEG with respect to attentional state of the listener. We construct a decoder based on the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate of the state parameters via the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. The resulting decoder is able to track the attentional modulation of the listener with multi-second resolution using only the envelopes of the two speech streams as covariates. We present simulation studies as well as application to real MEG data from two human subjects. Our results reveal that the proposed decoder provides substantial gains in terms of temporal resolution, complexity, and decoding accuracy. 1 Introduction Segregating a speaker of interest in a multi-speaker environment is an effortless task we routinely perform. It has been hypothesized that after entering the auditory system, the complex auditory signal resulted from concurrent sound sources in a crowded environment is decomposed into acoustic features. An appropriate binding of the relevant features, and discounting of others, leads to forming the percept of an auditory object [1, 2, 3]. The complexity of this process becomes tangible when one tries to synthesize the underlying mechanism known as the cocktail party problem [4, 5, 6, 7]. In a number of recent studies it has been shown that concurrent auditory objects even with highly overlapping spectrotemporal features, are neurally encoded as a distinct object in auditory cortex and emerge as fundamental representational units for high-level cognitive processing [8, 9, 10]. In the case of listening to speech, it has recently been demonstrated by Ding and Simon [8], that the auditory response manifested in MEG is strongly modulated by the spectrotemporal features of the speech. In the presence of two speakers, this modulation appears to be strongly correlated with the temporal features of the attended speaker as opposed to the unattended speaker (See Figure 1?A). Previous studies employ time-averaging across multiple trials in order to decode the attentional state of the listener from MEG observations. This method is only valid when the subject is attending to a single speaker during the entire trial. In a real-world scenario, the attention of the listener can switch dynamically from one speaker to another. Decoding the attentional target in this scenario requires a 1 MEG Spk1 Spk2 S At pk te 2 nd ed ?5 C B k1 d Sp n d e te t Spk1 Speech A Sink Source 50ft/Step Temporal Response Function A 8 x 10 6 4 2 0 ?2 ?4 ?6 0 50 125 Spk2 Speech 250 Time (ms) 375 500 Figure 1: A) Schematic depiction of auditory object encoding in the auditory cortex. B) The MEG magnetic field distribution of the first DSS component shows a stereotypical pattern of neural activity originating separately in the left and right auditory cortices. Purple and green contours represent the magnetic field strength. Red arrows schematically represent the locations of the dipole currents, generating the measured magnetic field. C) An example of the TRF, estimated from real MEG data. Significant TRF components analogous to the well-known M50 and M100 auditory responses are marked in the plot. dynamic estimation framework with high temporal resolution. Moreover, the current techniques use the full spectrotemporal features of the speech for decoding. It is not clear whether the decoding can be carried out with a more parsimonious set of spectrotemporal features. In this paper, we develop a behaviorally inspired state-space model to account for the modulation of MEG with respect to the attentional state of the listener in a double-speaker environment. MAP estimation of the state-space parameters given MEG observations is carried out via the EM algorithm. We present simulation studies as well as application to experimentally acquired MEG data, which reveal that the proposed decoder is able to accurately track the attentional state of a listener in a double-speaker environment while selectively listening to one of the two speakers. Our method has three main advantages over existing techniques. First, the decoder provides estimates with subsecond temporal resolution. Second, it only uses the envelopes of the two speech streams as the covariates, which is a substantial reduction in the dimension of the spectrotemporal feature set used for decoding. Third, the principled statistical framework used in constructing the decoder allows us to obtain confidence bounds on the estimated attentional state. The paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we introduce the state-space model and the proposed decoding algorithm. We present simulation studies to test the decoder in terms of robustness with respect to noise as well as tracking performance and apply to real MEG data recorded from two human subjects in Section 3. Finally, we discuss the future directions and generalizations of our proposed framework in Section 4. 2 Methods We first consider the forward problem of relating the MEG observations to the spectrotemporal features of the attended and unattended speech streams. Next, we consider the inverse problem where we seek to decode the attentional state of the listener given the MEG observations and the temporal features of the two speech streams. 2.1 The Forward Problem: Estimating the Temporal Response Function Consider a task where the subject is passively listening to a speech stream. Let the discretetime MEG observation at time t, sensor j, and trial r be denoted by xt,j,r , for t = 1, 2, ? ? ? , T , j = 1, 2, ? ? ? , M and r = 1, 2, ? ? ? , R. The stimulus-irrelevant neural activity can be removed using denoising source separation (DSS) [11]. The DSS algorithm is a blind source separation method that decomposes the data into T temporally uncorrelated components by enhancing consistent components over trials and suppressing noise-like components of the data, with no knowledge of the stimulus or timing of the task. Let the time series y1,r , y2,r , ? ? ? , yT,r denote the first significant component of the DSS decomposition, denoted hereafter by MEG data. In an auditory task, this component has a field map which is consistent with the stereotypical auditory response in MEG (See Figure 1?B). Also, let Et be the speech envelope of the speaker at time t in dB scale. In a linear model, the MEG data is linearly related to the envelope of speech as: yt,r = ?t ? Et + vt,r , 2 (1) where ?t is a linear filter of length L denoted by temporal response function (TRF), ? denotes the convolution operator, and vt,r is a nuisance component accounting for trial-dependent and stimulusindependent components manifested in the MEG data. It is known that the TRF is a sparse filter, with significant components analogous to the M50 and M100 auditory responses ([9, 8], See Figure 1?C). A commonly-used technique for estimating the TRF is known as Boosting ([12, 9]), where the components of the TRF are greedily selected to decrease the mean square error (MSE) of the fit to the MEG data. We employ an alternative estimation framework based on `1 -regularization. Let ? := [?L , ?L?1 , ? ? ? , ?1 ]0 be the time-reversed version of the TRF filter in vector form, and let Et := [Et , Et?1 , ? ? ? , Et?L+1 ]0 . In order to obtain a sparse estimate of the TRF, we seek the `1 -regularized estimate: R,T X 2 ?b = argmin kyt,r ? ? 0 Et k2 + ?k? k1 , (2) ? r,t=1 where ? is the regularization parameter. The above problem can be solved using standard optimization software. We have used a fast solver based on iteratively re-weighted least squares [13]. The parameter ? is chosen by two-fold cross-validation, where the first half of the data is used for estimating ? and the second half is used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit in the MSE sense. An example of the estimated TRF is shown in Figure 1?C. In a competing-speaker environment, where the subject is only attending to one of the two speakers, the linear model takes the form: yt,r = ?ta ? Eta + ?tu ? Etu + vt,r , (3) u u a a with ?t , Et , ?t , and Et , denoting the TRF and envelope of the attended and unattended speakers, respectively. The above estimation framework can be generalized to the two-speaker case by replacing the regressor ? 0 Et with ? a 0 Eat + ? u 0 Eut , where ? a , Eat , ? u , and Eut are defined in a fashion similar to the single-speaker case. Similarly, the regularization ?k? k1 is replaced by ? a k? a k1 + ? u k? u k1 . 2.2 2.2.1 The Inverse Problem: Decoding Attentional Modulation Observation Model Let y1,r , y2,r , ? ? ? , yT,r denote the MEG data time series at trial r, for r = 1, 2, ? ? ? , R during an observation period of length T . For a window length W , let   yk,r := y(k?1)W +1,r , y(k?1)W +2,r , ? ? ? , ykW,r , (4) for k = 1, 2, ? ? ? , K := bT /W c. Also, let Ei,t be the speech envelope of speaker i at time t in dB scale, i = 1, 2. Let ?ta and ?tu denote the TRFs of the attended and unattended speakers, respectively. The MEG predictors in the linear model are given by:  e1,t := ?ta ? E1,t + ?tu ? E2,t attending to speaker 1 , t = 1, 2, ? ? ? , T. (5) e2,t := ?ta ? E2,t + ?tu ? E1,t attending to speaker 2 Let   ei,k := ei,(k?1)W +1 , ei,(k?1)W +2 , ? ? ? , ei,kW , for i = 1, 2 and k = 1, 2, ? ? ? , K. (6) Recent work by Ding and Simon [8] suggests that the MEG data yk is more correlated with the predictor ei,k when the subject is attending to the ith speaker at window k. Let   yk,r ei,k ?i,k,r := arccos , (7) kyk,r k2 kei,k k2 denote the empirical correlation between the observed MEG data and the model prediction when attending to speaker i at window k and trial r. When ?i,k,r is close to 0 (?), the MEG data and its predicted value are highly (poorly) correlated. Inspired by the findings of Ding and Simon [8], we model the statistics of ?i,k,r by the von Mises distribution [14]: 1 p (?i,k,r ) = exp (?i cos (?i,k,r )) , ?i,k,r ? [0, ?], i = 1, 2 (8) ?I0 (?i ) where I0 (?) is the zeroth order modified Bessel function of the first kind, and ?i denotes the spread parameter of the von Mises distribution for i = 1, 2. The von Mises distribution gives more (less) weight to higher (lower) values of correlation between the MEG data and its predictor and is pretty robust to gain fluctuations of the neural data.The spread parameter ?i accounts for the concentration 0 d?i ) of ?i,k,r around 0. We assume a conjugate prior of the form p(?i ) ? exp(c over ?i , for some I0 (?i )d hyper-parameters c0 and d. 3 2.2.2 State Model Suppose that at each window of observation, the subject is attending to either of the two speakers. Let nk,r be a binary variable denoting the attention state of the subject at window k and trial r:  1 attending to speaker 1 (9) nk,r = 0 attending to speaker 2 The subjective experience of attending to a specific speech stream among a number of competing speeches reveals that the attention often switches to the competing speakers, although not intended by the listener. Therefore, we model the statistics of nk,r by a Bernoulli process with a success probability of qk : n p(nk,r |qk ) = qk k,r (1 ? qk )1?nk,r . (10) A value of qk close to 1 (0) implies attention to speaker 1 (2). The process {qk }K k=1 is assumed to be common among different trials. In order to model the dynamics of qk , we define a variable zk such that exp(zk ) qk = logit?1 (zk ) := . (11) 1 + exp(zk ) When zk tends to +? (??), qk tends to 1 (0). We assume that zk obeys AR(1) dynamics of the form: zk = zk?1 + wk , (12) where wk is a zero-mean i.i.d. Gaussian random variable with a variance of ?k . We further assume that ?k are distributed according to the conjugate prior given by the inverse-Gamma distribution with hyper-parameters ? (shape) and ? (scale). 2.2.3 Let Parameter Estimation n o K ? := ?1 , ?2 , {zk }K k=1 , {?k }k=1 (13) be the set of parameters. The log-posterior of the parameter set ? given the observed data  2,T,R ?i,k,r i,k,r=1 is given by:    R,K X 2,K,R log p ? {?i,k,r }i,k,r=1 = log  1 ? qk qk exp (?1 cos (?1,k,r ))+ exp (?2 cos (?2,k,r )) ?I0 (?1 ) ?I0 (?2 ) r,k=1   + (?1 + ?2 )c0 d ? d log I0 (?1 ) + log I0 (?2 )  R,K X  1 ? 1 2 ? (zk ?zk?1 ) + log ?k + (? + 1) log ?k + + cst. 2?k 2 ?k r,k=1 where cst. denotes terms that are not functions of ?. The MAP estimate of the parameters is difficult to obtain given the involved functional form of the log-posterior. However, the complete data log-posterior, where the unobservable sequence {nk,r }K,R k=1,r=1 is given, takes the form:   R,K X 2,K,R log p ? {?i,k,r , nk,r }i,k,r=1 = nk,r [?1 cos (?1,k,r )?log I0 (?1 ) + log qk ] r,k=1 + R,K X (1?nk,r ) [?2 cos (?2,k,r )?log I0 (?2 ) + log(1 ? qk )] r,k=1   + (?1 + ?2 )c0 d ? d log I0 (?1 ) + log I0 (?2 )  R,K X 1 1 ? 2 (zk ?zk?1 ) + log ?k +(? + 1) log ?k + +cst. ? 2?k 2 ?k r,k=1 The log-posterior of the parameters given the complete data has a tractable functional form for optimization purposes. Therefore, by taking {nk,r }K,R k=1,r=1 as the unobserved data, we can estimate 4  2,K,R ? via the EM algorithm [15]. Using Bayes? rule, the expectation of nk,r , given ?i,k,r i,k,r=1 and  (`) (`)  (`) K  (`) K current estimates of the parameters ?(`) := ?1 , ?2 , zk k=1 , ?k k=1 is given by:   (`) qk (`)   exp ? cos (?1,k,r ) (`) 1 o n ?I0 ?1 2,K,R E nk,r {?i,k,r }i,k,r=1 , ?(`) =    . (`) (`) 1?qk qk (`) (`)  exp ? cos (?1,k,r ) +  exp ? cos (?2,k,r )   (`) (`) 1 2 ?I0 ?1 ?I0 ?2 Denoting the expectation above by the shorthand E(`) {nk,r }, the M-step of the EM algorithm for (`+1) (`+1) ?1 and ?2 gives: ? ? R,K X (`) ?i,k,r cos (?i,k,r ) ? ? c0 d +  (`) ? ? r,k=1 E {nk,r } i=1 ? (`+1) (`) ?1 ? ?i =A ? , (14) ? , ?i,k,r = (`) R,K 1 ? E {n } i=2 ? ? k,r X (`) ? ? d+ ?i,k,r r,k=1 where A(x) := I1 (x)/I0 (x), with I1 (?) denoting the first order modified Bessel function of the first (`+1) (`+1) kind. Inversion of A(?) can be carried out numerically in order to find ?1 and ?2 . The M-step K K for {?k }k=1 and {zk }k=1 corresponds to the following maximization problem:  R,K i X  1 h 2 1+2(?+1) (`) argmax E {nk,r }zk ?log(1 + exp(zk ))? (zk ? zk?1 ) +2? ? log ?k . 2 2?k {zk ,?k }K k=1 r,k=1 An efficient approximate solution to this maximization problem is given by another EM algorithm, where the E-step is the point process smoothing algorithm [16, 17] and the M-step updates the (`+1) (`+1,m) state variance sequence [18]. At iteration m, given an estimate of ?k , denoted by ?k , the forward pass of the E-step for k = 1, 2, ? ? ? , K is given by: ? (`+1,m) (`+1,m) z?k|k?1 = z?k?1|k?1 ? ? ? ? (`+1,m) ? ? ?k (`+1,m) (`+1,m) ? ? ? = ? + ? k|k?1 k?1|k?1 ? R ?  ?  ? ? (`+1,m) ? R ? exp z?k|k X ? (`+1,m) (`+1,m) (`+1,m)  ? E(`) {nk,r } ? R z?k|k = z?k|k?1 + ?k|k?1 ? (15) (`+1,m) ? 1 + exp z ? r=1 ? k|k ? ? ? ??1 ?   ? ? (`+1,m) ? exp z ? ? k|k 1 ? ? ? (`+1,m) ? ? ?k|k = ? (`+1,m) + R   2 ? ? ? (`+1,m) ? ?k|k?1 1 + exp z? k|k and for k = K ? 1, K ? 2, ? ? ? , 1, the backward pass of the E-step is given by: ? (`+1,m) (`+1,m) (`+1,m) s = ?k|k /?k+1|k ? ?   ? k (`+1,m) (`+1,m) (`+1,m) (`+1,m) (`+1,m) z?k|K = z?k|k + sk z?k+1|K ? z?k+1|k   ? ? ? ? (`+1,m) = ? (`+1,m) + s(`+1,m) ? (`+1,m) ? ? (`+1,m) s(`+1,m) k|K k k|k k+1|K k k+1|k (`+1,m) Note that the third equation in the forward filter is non-linear in z?k|k (16) , and can be solved using (`+1,m+1) standard techniques (e.g., Newton?s method). The M-step gives the updated value of ?k  (`+1,m+1) ?k = (`+1,m) z?k|K (`+1,m) ? z?k?1|K 2 (`+1,m) + ?k|K (`+1,m) (`+1,m) (`+1,m) sk?1 + ?k?1|K ? 2?k|K 1 + 2(? + 1) as: + 2? . (17) For each ` in the outer EM iteration, the inner iteration over m is repeated until convergence, to (`+1) K (`+1) K obtain the updated values of {zk }k=1 and {?k }k=1 to be passed to the outer EM iteration. 5 The updated estimate of the Bernoulli success probability at window k and iteration ` + 1 is given by (`+1) (`+1)  qk = logit?1 zk . Starting with an initial guess of the parameters, the outer EM algorithm alternates between finding the expectation of {nk,r }K,R k=1,r=1 and estimating the parameters ?1 , ?2 , (`) K {zk }K k=1 and {?k }k=1 until convergence. Confidence intervals for qk can be obtained by mapping (`) the Gaussian confidence intervals for the Gaussian variable zk via the inverse logit mapping. In summary, the decoder inputs the MEG observations and the envelopes of the two speech streams, and outputs the Bernoulli success probability sequence corresponding to attention to speaker 1. 3 3.1 Results Simulated Experiments We first evaluated the proposed state-space model and estimation procedure on simulated MEG data. For a sampling rate of Fs = 200Hz, a window length of W = 50 samples (250ms), and a total observation time of T = 12000 samples (60s), the binary sequence {nk,r }240,3 k=1,r=1 is generated as realizations of a Bernoulli process with success probability qk = 0.95 or 0.05, corresponding to attention to speaker one or two, respectively. Using a TRF template of length 0.5s estimated from real data, we generated 3 trials with an SNR of 10dB. Each trial includes three attentional switches occurring every 15 seconds. The hyper-parameters ? and ? for the inverse-Gamma prior on the state variance are chosen as ? = 2.01 and ? = 2. This choice of ? close to 2 results in a non-informative prior, as the variance of the prior is given by ? 2 /[(? ? 1)2 (? ? 2)] ? 400, while the mean is given by ?/(? ? 1) ? 2. The mean of the prior is chosen large enough so that the state transition from qk = 0.99 to qk+1 = 0.01 lies in the 98% confidence interval around the state innovation variable wk (See Eq. (12)). The hyper-parameters for the von Mises distribution are chosen as d = 27 KR and c0 = 0.15, as the average observed correlation between the MEG data and the model prediction is ? in the range of 0.1?0.2. The choice of d = 72 KR gives more weight to the prior than the empirical estimate of ?i . Figure 2?A and 2?B show the simulated MEG signal (black traces) and predictors of attending to speaker one and two (red traces), respectively, at an SNR of 10 dB. Regions highlighted in yellow in panels A and B indicate the attention of the listener to either of the two speakers. Estimated values of {qk }240 k=1 (green trace) and the corresponding confidence intervals (green hull) are shown in Figure 2?C. The estimated qk values reliably track the attentional modulation, and the transitions are captured with high accuracy. MEG data recorded from the brain is usually contaminated with environmental noise as well as nuisance sources of neural activity, which can considerably decrease the SNR of the measured signal. In order to test the robustness of the decoder with respect to observation noise, we repeated the above simulation with SNR values of 0 dB, ?10 dB and ?20 dB. As Figure 2?D shows, the dynamic denoising feature of the proposed state-space model results in a desirable decoding performance for SNR values as low as ?20 dB. The confidence intervals and the estimated transition width widen gracefully as the SNR decreases. Finally, we test the tracking performance of the decoder with respect to the frequency of the attentional switches. From subjective experience, attentional switches occur over a time scale of few seconds. We repeated the above simulation for SNR = 10 dB with 14 attentional switches equally spaced during the 60s trial. Figure 2?E shows the corresponding estimate values of {qk }, which reliably tracks the 14 attentional switches during the observation period. 3.2 Application to Real MEG Data We evaluated our proposed state-space model and decoder on real MEG data recorded from two human subjects listening to a speech mixture from a male and a female speaker under different attentional conditions. The experimental methods were approved by the Institutional Review Board (IRB) at the authors? home institution. Two normal-hearing right-handed young adults participated in this experiment. Listeners selectively listened to one of the two competing speakers of opposite gender, mixed into a single acoustic channel with equal density. The stimuli consisted of 4 segments from the book A Child History of England by Charles Dickens, narrated by two different readers (one male and one female). Three different mixtures, each 60s long, were generated and used in different experimental conditions to prevent reduction in attentional focus of the listeners, as opposed to listening to a single mixture repeatedly over the entire experiment. All stimuli were delivered 6 Figure 2: Simulated MEG data (black traces) and model prediction (red traces) of A) speaker one and B) speaker two at SNR = 10 dB. Regions highlighted in yellow indicate the attention of the listener to each of the speakers. C) Estimated values of {qk } with 95% confidence intervals. D) Estimated values of {qk } from simulated MEG data vs. SNR = 0, ?10 and ?20dB. E) Estimated values of {qk } from simulated MEG data with SNR = 10dB and 14 equally spaced attention switches during the entire trial. Error hulls indicate 95% confidence intervals. The MEG units are in pT /m. identically to both ears using tube phones plugged into the ears and at a comfortable loudness level of around 65 dB. The neuromagnetic signal was recorded using a 157?channel, whole-head MEG system (KIT) in a magnetically shielded room, with a sampling rate of 1kHz. Three reference channels were used to measure and cancel the environmental magnetic field [19]. The stimulus-irrelevant neural activity was removed using the DSS algorithm [11]. The recorded neural response during each 60s was high-pass filtered at 1 Hz and downsampled to 200 Hz before submission to the DSS analysis. Only the first component of the DSS decomposition was used in the analysis [9]. The TRF corresponding to the attended speaker was estimated from a pilot condition where only a single speech stream was presented to the subject, using 3 repeated trials (See Section 2.1). The TRF corresponding to the unattended speaker was approximated by truncating the attended TRF beyond a lag of 90ms, on the grounds of the recent findings of Ding and Simon [8] which show that the components of the unattended TRF are significantly suppressed beyond the M50 evoked field. In the following analysis, trials with poor correlation values between the MEG data and the model prediction were removed by testing for the hypothesis of uncorrelatedness using the Fisher transformation at a confidence level of 95% [20], resulting in rejection of about 26% of the trials. All the hyper-parameters are equal to those used for the simulation studies (See Section 3.1). In the first and second conditions, subjects were asked to attend to the male and female speakers, respectively, during the entire trial. Figure 3?A and 3?B show the MEG data and the predicted qk values for averaged as well as single trials for both subjects. Confidence intervals are shown by the shaded hulls for the averaged trial estimate in each condition. The decoding results indicate that the decoder reliably recovers the attention modulation in both conditions, by estimating {qk } close to 1 and 0 for the first and second conditions, respectively. For the third and fourth conditions, subjects were instructed to switch their attention in the middle of each trial, from the male to the female speaker (third condition) and from the female to the male speaker (fourth condition). Switching times were cued by inserting a 2s pause starting at 28s in each trial. Figures 3?C and 3?D show the MEG data and the predicted qk values for averaged and single trials corresponding to the third and fourth conditions, respectively. Dashed vertical lines show the start of the 2s pause before attentional switch. Using multiple trials, the decoder is able to capture the attentional switch occurring roughly halfway through the trial. The decoding of individual trials suggest that the exact switching time is not consistent across different trials, as the attentional switch may occur slightly earlier or later than the presented cue due to inter-trial variability. Moreover, the decoding results for a correlation-based classifier is shown in the third panel of each figure for one of the subjects. At each time window, the 7 Figure 3: Decoding of auditory attentional modulation from real MEG data. In each subplot, the MEG data (black traces) and the model prediction (red traces) for attending to speaker 1 (male) and speaker 2 (female) are shown in the first and second panels, respectively, for subject 1. The third panel shows the estimated values of {qk } and the corresponding confidence intervals using multiple trials for both subjects. The gray traces show the results for a correlation-based classifier for subject 1. The fourth panel shows the estimated {qk } values for single trials. A) Condition one: attending to speaker 1 through the entire trial. B) Condition two: attending to speaker 2 through the entire trial. C) Condition three: attending to speaker 1 until t = 28s and switching attention to speaker 2 starting at t = 30s. D) Condition four: attending to speaker 2 until t = 28s and switching attention to speaker 1 starting at t = 30s. Dashed lines in subplots C and D indicate the start of the 2s silence cue for attentional switch. Error hulls indicate 95% confidence intervals. The MEG units are in pT /m. classifier picks the speaker with the maximum correlation (averaged across trials) between the MEG data and its predicted value based on the envelopes. Our proposed method significantly outperforms the correlation-based classifier which is unable to consistently track the attentional modulation of the listener over time. 4 Discussion In this paper, we presented a behaviorally inspired state-space model and an estimation framework for decoding the attentional state of a listener in a competing-speaker environment. The estimation framework takes advantage of the temporal continuity in the attentional state, resulting in a decoding performance with high accuracy and high temporal resolution. Parameter estimation is carried out using the EM algorithm, which at its heart ties to the efficient computation of the Bernoulli process smoothing, resulting in a very low overall computational complexity. We illustrate the performance of our technique on simulated and real MEG data from human subjects. The proposed approach benefits from the inherent model-based dynamic denosing of the underlying state-space model, and is able to reliably decode the attentional state under very low SNR conditions. Future work includes generalization of the proposed model to more realistic and complex auditory environments with more diverse sources such as mixtures of speech, music and structured background noise. Adapting the proposed model and estimation framework to EEG is also under study. 8 References [1] Bregman, A. S. (1994). Auditory Scene Analysis: The Perceptual Organization of Sound, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [2] Griffiths, T. D., & Warren, J. D. (2004). What is an auditory object?. Nature Reviews Neuroscience, 5(11), 887?892. [3] Shamma, S. A., Elhilali, M., & Micheyl, C. (2011). Temporal coherence and attention in auditory scene analysis. Trends in neurosciences, 34(3), 114?123. [4] Bregman, A. S. (1998). Psychological data and computational ASA. In Computational Auditory Scene Analysis (pp. 1-12). Hillsdale, NJ: L. Erlbaum Associates Inc. [5] Cherry, E. C. (1953). Some experiments on the recognition of speech, with one and with two ears. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, 25(5), 975?979. [6] Elhilali, M., Xiang, J., Shamma, S. A., & Simon, J. Z. (2009). Interaction between attention and bottom-up saliency mediates the representation of foreground and background in an auditory scene. PLoS Biology, 7(6), e1000129. [7] Shinn-Cunningham, B. G. (2008). Object-based auditory and visual attention. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 12(5), 182?186. [8] Ding, N. & Simon, J.Z. (2012). Emergence of neural encoding of auditory objects while listening to competing speakers. PNAS, 109(29):11854?11859. [9] Ding, N. & Simon, J.Z. (2012). Neural coding of continuous speech in auditory cortex during monaural and dichotic listening. Journal of Neurophisiology, 107(1):78?89. [10] Mesgarani, N., & Chang, E. F. (2012). Selective cortical representation of attended speaker in multi-talker speech perception. Nature, 485(7397), 233?236. [11] de Cheveign?e, A., & Simon, J. Z. (2008). Denoising based on spatial filtering. Journal of Neuroscience Methods, 171(2), 331?339. [12] David, S. V., Mesgarani, N., & Shamma. (2007). Estimating sparse spectro-temporal receptive fields with natural stimuli. Network: Computation in Neural Systems, 18(3), 191?212. [13] Ba, D., Babadi, B., Purdon, P. L., & Brown, E. N. (2014). Convergence and stability of iteratively re-weighted least squares algorithms, IEEE Trans. on Signal Processing, 62(1), 183?195. [14] Fisher, N. I. (1995). Statistical Analysis of Circular Data, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. [15] Dempster, A. P., Laird, N. M., & Rubin, D. B. (1977). Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM algorithm. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 39(1), 1?38. [16] Smith, A. C. & Brown, E. N. (2003). Estimating a state-space model from point process observations. Neural Computation. 15(5), 965?991. [17] Smith, A. C., Frank, L. M., Wirth, S., Yanike, M., Hu, D., Kubota, Y., Graybiel, A. M., Suzuki, W. A., & Brown, E. N. (2004). Dynamic analysis of learning in behavioral experiments. The Journal of Neuroscience, 24(2), 447?461. [18] Shumway, R. H., & Stoffer, D. S. (1982). An approach to time series smoothing and forecasting using the EM algorithm. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 3(4), 253?264. [19] de Cheveign?e, A., & Simon, J. Z. (2007). Denoising based on time-shift PCA. Journal of Neuroscience Methods, 165(2), 297?305. [20] Fisher, R. A. (1915). Frequency distribution of the values of the correlation coefficient in samples of an indefinitely large population. Biometrika, 10(4): 507?521. 9
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Efficient Structured Matrix Rank Minimization Adams Wei Yu? , Wanli Ma? , Yaoliang Yu? , Jaime G. Carbonell? , Suvrit Sra? School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University? Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems? {weiyu, mawanli, yaoliang, jgc}@cs.cmu.edu, suvrit@tuebingen.mpg.de Abstract We study the problem of finding structured low-rank matrices using nuclear norm regularization where the structure is encoded by a linear map. In contrast to most known approaches for linearly structured rank minimization, we do not (a) use the full SVD; nor (b) resort to augmented Lagrangian techniques; nor (c) solve linear systems per iteration. Instead, we formulate the problem differently so that it is amenable to a generalized conditional gradient method, which results in a practical improvement with low per iteration computational cost. Numerical results show that our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art competitors in terms of running time, while effectively recovering low rank solutions in stochastic system realization and spectral compressed sensing problems. 1 Introduction Many practical tasks involve finding models that are both simple and capable of explaining noisy observations. The model complexity is sometimes encoded by the rank of a parameter matrix, whereas physical and system level constraints could be encoded by a specific matrix structure. Thus, rank minimization subject to structural constraints has become important to many applications in machine learning, control theory, and signal processing [10, 22]. Applications include collaborative filtering [23], system identification and realization [19, 21], multi-task learning [28], among others. The focus of this paper is on problems where in addition to being low-rank, the parameter matrix must satisfy additional linear structure. Typically, this structure involves Hankel, Toeplitz, Sylvester, Hessenberg or circulant matrices [4, 11, 19]. The linear structure describes interdependencies between the entries of the estimated matrix and helps substantially reduce the degrees of freedom. As a concrete example consider a linear time-invariant (LTI) system where we are estimating the parameters of an autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) model. The order of this LTI system, i.e., the dimension of the latent state space, is equal to the rank of a Hankel matrix constructed by the process covariance [20]. A system of lower order, which is easier to design and analyze, is usually more desirable. The problem of minimum order system approximation is essentially a structured matrix rank minimization problem. There are several other applications where such linear structure is of great importance?see e.g., [11] and references therein. Furthermore, since (enhanced) structured matrix completion also falls into the category of rank minimization problems, the results in our paper can as well be applied to specific problems in spectral compressed sensing [6], natural language processing [1], computer vision [8] and medical imaging [24]. Formally, we study the following (block) structured rank minimization problem: miny 1 2 kA(y) bk2F + ? ? rank(Qm,n,j,k (y)). (1) Here, y = (y1 , ..., yj+k 1 ) is an m ? n(j + k 1) matrix with yt 2 R for t = 1, ..., j + k 1, A : Rm?n(j+k 1) ! Rp is a linear map, b 2 Rp , Qm,n,j,k (y) 2 Rmj?nk is a structured matrix whose elements are linear functions of yt ?s, and ? > 0 controls the regularization. Throughout this paper, we will use M = mj and N = nk to denote the number of rows and columns of Qm,n,j,k (y). m?n 1 Problem (1) is in general NP-hard [21] due to the presence of the rank function. A popular approach to address this issue is to use the nuclear norm k ? k? , i.e., the sum of singular values, as a convex surrogate for matrix rank [22]. Doing so turns (1) into a convex optimization problem: miny 12 kA(y) bk2F + ? ? kQm,n,j,k (y)k? . (2) Such a relaxation has been combined with various convex optimization procedures in previous work, e.g., interior-point approaches [17, 18] and first-order alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) approaches [11]. However, such algorithms are computationally expensive. The cost per iteration of an interior-point method is no less than O(M 2 N 2 ), and that of typical proximal and ADMM style first-order methods in [11] is O(min(N 2 M, N M 2 )); this high cost arises from each iteration requiring a full Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). The heavy computational cost of these methods prevents them from scaling to large problems. Contributions. In view of the efficiency and scalability limitations of current algorithms, the key contributions of our paper are as follows. ? We formulate the structured rank minimization problem differently, so that we still find low- rank solutions consistent with the observations, but substantially more scalably. ? We customize the generalized conditional gradient (GCG) approach of Zhang et al. [27] to our new formulation. Compared with previous first-order methods, the cost per iteration is O(M N ) (linear in the data size), which is substantially lower than methods that require full SVDs. ? Our approach maintains a convergence rate of O 1? and thus achieves an overall complexity of O M?N , which is by far the lowest in terms of the dependence of M or N for general structured rank minimization problems. It also empirically proves to be a state-of-the-art method for (but clearly not limited to) stochastic system realization and spectral compressed sensing. We note that following a GCG scheme has another practical benefit: the rank of the intermediate solutions starts from a small value and then gradually increases, while the starting solutions obtained from existing first-order methods are always of high rank. Therefore, GCG is likely to find a lowrank solution faster, especially for large size problems. Related work. Liu and Vandenberghe [17] adopt an interior-point method on a reformulation of (2), where the nuclear norm is represented via a semidefinite program. The cost of each iteration in [17] is no less than O(M 2 N 2 ). Ishteva et al. [15] propose a local optimization method to solve the weighted structured rank minimization problem, which still has complexity as high as O(N 3 M r2 ) per iteration, where r is the rank. This high computational cost prevents [17] and [15] from handling large-scale problems. In another recent work, Fazel et al. [11] propose a framework to solve (2). They derive several primal and dual reformulations for the problem, and propose corresponding first-order methods such as ADMM, proximal-point, and accelerated projected gradient. However, each iteration of these algorithms involves a full SVD of complexity O(min(M 2 N, N 2 M )), making it hard to scale them to large problems. Signoretto et al. [25] reformulate the problem to avoid full SVDs by solving an equivalent nonconvex optimization problem via ADMM. However, their method requires subroutines to solve linear equations per iteration, which can be time-consuming for large problems. Besides, there is no guarantee that their method will converge to the global optimum. The conditional gradient (CG) (a.k.a. Frank-Wolfe) method was proposed by Frank and Wolfe [12] to solve constrained problems. At each iteration, it first solves a subproblem that minimizes a linearized objective over a compact constraint set and then moves toward the minimizer of the cost function. CG is efficient as long as the linearized subproblem is easy to solve. Due to its simplicity and scalability, CG has recently witnessed a great surge of interest in the machine learning and optimization community [16]. In another recent strand of work, CG was extended to certain regularized (non-smooth) problems as well [3, 13, 27]. In the following, we will show how a generalized CG method can be adapted to solve the structured matrix rank minimization problem. 2 Problem Formulation and Approach In this section we reformulate the structured rank minimization problem in a way that enables us to apply the generalized conditional gradient method, which we subsequently show to be much more efficient than existing approaches, both theoretically and experimentally. Our starting point is that in most applications, we are interested in finding a ?simple? model that is consistent with 2 the observations, but the problem formulation itself, such as (2), is only an intermediate means, hence it need not be fixed. In fact, when formulating our problem we can and we should take the computational concerns into account. We will demonstrate this point first. 2.1 Problem Reformulation The major computational difficulty in problem (2) comes from the linear transformation Qm,n,j,k (?) inside the trace norm regularizer. To begin with, we introduce a new matrix variable X 2 Rmj?nk and remove the linear transformation by introducing the following linear constraint Qm,n,j,k (y) = X. (3) For later use, we partition the matrix X into the block form 2 3 x11 x12 ? ? ? x1k 6x21 x22 ? ? ? x2k 7 X := 6 with xil 2 Rm?n for i = 1, ..., j, l = 1, ..., k. (4) .. .. 7 4 ... . . 5 xj1 xj2 ??? xjk We denote by x := vec(X) 2 Rmjk?n the vector obtained by stacking the columns of X blockwise, and by X := mat(x) 2 Rmj?nk the reverse operation. Since x and X are merely different reorderings of the same object, we will use them interchangeably to refer to the same object. We observe that any linear (or slightly more generally, affine) structure encoded by the linear transformation Qm,n,j,k (?) translates to linear constraints on the elements of X (such as the sub-blocks in (4) satisfying say x12 = x21 ), which can be represented as linear equations Bx = 0, with an appropriate matrix B that encodes the structure of Q. Similarly, the linear constraint in (3) that relates y and X, or equivalently x, can also be written as the linear constraint y = Cx for a suitable recovery matrix C. Details on constructing matrix B and C can be found in the appendix. Thus, we reformulate (2) into 1 min bk2F + ?kXk? (5) 2 kA(Cx) x2Rmjk?n s.t. Bx = 0. (6) The new formulation (5) is still computationally inconvenient due to the linear constraint (6). We resolve this difficulty by applying the penalty method, i.e., by placing the linear constraint into the objective function after composing with a penalty function such as the squared Frobenius norm: 1 min bk2F + 2 kBxk2F + ?kXk? . (7) 2 kA(Cx) x2Rmjk?n Here > 0 is a penalty parameter that controls the inexactness of the linear constraint. In essence, we turn (5) into an unconstrained problem by giving up on satisfying the linear constraint exactly. We argue that this is a worthwhile trade-off for (i) By letting " 1 and following a homotopy scheme the constraint can be satisfied asymptotically; (ii) If exactness of the linear constraint is truly desired, we could always post-process each iterate by projecting to the constraint manifold using Cproj (see appendix); (iii) As we will show shortly, the potential computational gains can be significant, enabling us to solve problems at a scale which is not achievable previously. Therefore, in the sequel we will focus on solving (7). After getting a solution for x, we recover the original variable y through the linear relation y = Cx. As shown in our empirical studies (see Section 3), the resulting solution Qm,n,j,k (y) indeed enjoys the desirable low-rank property even with a moderate penalty parameter . We next present an efficient algorithm for solving (7). 2.2 The Generalized Conditional Gradient Algorithm Observing that the first two terms in (7) are both continuously differentiable, we absorb them into a common term f and rewrite (7) in the more familiar compact form: min (X) := f (X) + ?kXk? , (8) X2Rmj?nk which readily fits into the framework of the generalized conditional gradient (GCG) [3, 13, 27]. In short, at each iteration GCG successively linearizes the smooth function f , finds a descent direction by solving the (convex) subproblem Zk 2 arg min hZ, rf (Xk 1 )i, (9) kZk? ?1 3 Algorithm 1 Generalized Conditional Gradient for Structured Matrix Rank Minimization 1: Initialize U0 , V0 ; 2: for k = 1, 2, ... do 3: (uk , vk ) top singular vector pair of rf (Uk 1 Vk 1 ); 4: set ?k p 2/(k + 1), andp?k by (13); p p 5: Uinit ( 1 ?k Uk 1 , ?k uk ); Vinit ( 1 ?k Vk 1 , ?k vk ); 6: (Uk , Vk ) arg min (U, V ) using initializer (Uinit , Vinit ); 7: end for and then takes the convex combination Xk = (1 ?k )Xk 1 + ?k (?k Zk ) with a suitable step size ?k and scaling factor ?k . Clearly, the efficiency of GCG heavily hinges on the efficacy of solving the subproblem (9). In our case, the minimal objective is simply the matrix spectral norm of rf (Xk ) and the minimizer can be chosen as the outer product of the top singular vector pair. Both can be computed essentially in linear time O(M N ) using the Lanczos algorithm [7]. To further accelerate the algorithm, we adopt the local search idea in [27], which is based on the variational form of the trace norm [26]: kXk? = 12 min{kU k2F + kV k2F : X = U V }. (10) The crucial observation is that (10) is separable and smooth in the factor matrices U and V , although not jointly convex. We alternate between the GCG algorithm and the following nonconvex auxiliary problem, trying to get the best of both ends: min (U, V ), where (U, V ) = f (U V ) + ?2 (kU k2F + kV k2F ). (11) U,V Since our smooth function f is quadratic, it is easy to carry out a line search strategy for finding an appropriate ?k in the convex combination Xk+1 = (1 ?k )Xk + ?k (?k Zk ) =: (1 ?k )Xk + ?k Zk , where ?k = arg min hk (?) (12) ? 0 is the minimizer of the function (on ? 0) hk (?) := f ((1 ?k )Xk + ?Zk ) + ?(1 ?k )kXk k? + ??. (13) In fact, hk (?) upper bounds the objective function at (1 ?k )Xk + ?Zk . Indeed, using convexity, ((1 ?k )Xk + ?Zk ) = f ((1 ?k )Xk + ?Zk ) + ?k(1 ?k )Xk + ?Zk k? ? f ((1 ?k )Xk + ?Zk ) + ?(1 ?k )kXk k? + ??kZk k? ? f ((1 ?k )Xk + ?Zk ) + ?(1 ?k )kXk k? + ?? (as kZk k? ? 1) = hk (?). The reason to use the upper bound hk (?), instead of the true objective ((1 ?k )Xk + ?Zk ), is to avoid evaluating the trace norm, which can be quite expensive. More generally, if f is not quadratic, we can use the quadratic upper bound suggested by the Taylor expansion. It is clear that ?k in (12) can be computed in closed-form. We summarize our procedure in Algorithm 1. Importantly, we note that the algorithm explicitly maintains a low-rank factorization X = U V throughout the iteration. In fact, we never need the product X, which is a crucial step in reducing the memory footage for large applications. The maintained low-rank factorization also allows us to more efficiently evaluate the gradient and its spectral norm, by carefully arranging the multiplication order. Finally, we remark that we need not wait until the auxiliary problem (11) is fully solved; we can abort this local procedure whenever the gained improvement does not match the devoted computation. For the convergence guarantee we establish in Theorem 1 below, only the descent property (Uk Vk ) ? (Uk 1 Vk 1 ) is needed. This requirement can be easily achieved by evaluating , which, unlike the original objective , is computationally cheap. 2.3 Convergence analysis Having presented the generalized conditional gradient algorithm for our structured rank minimization problem, we now analyze its convergence property. We need the following standard assumption. 4 Assumption 1 There exists some norm k ? k and some constant L > 0, such that for all A, B 2 RN ?M and ? 2 (0, 1), we have f ((1 ?)A + ?B) ? f (A) + ?hB A, rf (A)i + L? 2 2 kB Ak2 . Most standard loss functions, such as the quadratic loss we use in this paper, satisfy Assumption 1. We are ready to state the convergence property of Algorithm 1 in the following theorem. To make the paper self-contained, we also reproduce the proof in the appendix. Theorem 1 Let Assumption 1 hold, X be arbitrary, and Xk be the k-th iterate of Algorithm 1 applied on the problem (7), then we have (Xk ) (X) ? 2C , k+1 (14) where C is some problem dependent absolute constant. Thus for any given accuracy ? > 0, Algorithm 1 will output an ?-approximate (in the sense of function value) solution in at most O(1/?) steps. 2.4 Comparison with existing approaches We briefly compare the efficiency of Algorithm 1 with the state-of-the-art approaches; more thorough experimental comparisons will be conducted in Section 3 below. The per-step complexity of our algorithm is dominated by the subproblem (9) which requires only the leading singular vector pair of the gradient. Using the Lanczos algorithm this costs O(M N ) arithmetic operations [16], which is significantly cheaper than the O(min(M 2 N, N 2 M )) complexity of [11] (due to their need of full SVD). Other approaches such as [25] and [17] are even more costly. 3 Experiments In this section, we present empirical results using our algorithms. Without loss of generality, we focus on two concrete structured rank minimization problems: (i) stochastic system realization (SSR); and (ii) 2-D spectral compressed sensing (SCS). Both problems involve minimizing the rank of two different structured matrices. For SSR, we compare different first-order methods to show the speedups offered by our algorithm. In the SCS problem, we show that our formulation can be generalized to more complicated linear structures and effectively recover unobserved signals. 3.1 Stochastic System Realization Model. The SSR problem aims to find a minimal order autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) model, given the observation of noisy system output [11]. As a discrete linear time-invariant (LTI) system, an AMRA process can be represented by the following state-space model st+1 = Dst + Eut , zt = F st + ut , t = 1, 2, ..., T, (15) where st 2 R is the hidden state variable, ut 2 R is driving white noise with covariance matrix G, and zt 2 Rn is the system output that is observable at time t. It has been shown in [20] that the system order r equals the rank of the block-Hankel matrix (see appendix for definition) constructed T by the exact process covariance yi = E(zt zt+i ), provided that the number of blocks per column, j, is larger than the actual system order. Determining the rank r is the key to the whole problem, after which, the parameters D, E, F, G can be computed easily [17, 20]. Therefore, finding a low order system is equivalent to minimizing the rank of the Hankel matrix above, while remaining consistent with the observations. r n Setup. The meaning of the following parameters can be seen in the text after E.q. (1). We follow the experimental setup of [11]. Here, m = n, p = n ? n(j + k 1), while v = (v1 , v2 , ..., vj+k 1 ) PT i denotes the empirical process covariance calculated as vi = T1 t=1 zt+i ztT , for 1 ? i ? k and 0 otherwise. Let w = (w1 , w2 , ..., wj+k 1 ) be the observation matrix, where the wi are all 1?s for 1 ? i ? k, indicating the whole block of vi is observed, and all 0?s otherwise (for unobserved 5 blocks). Finally, A(y) = vec(w y), b = vec(w v), Q(y) = Hn,n,j,k (y), where is the elementwise product and is Hn,n,j,k (?) the Hankel matrix (see Appendix for the corresponding B and C). Data generation. Each entry of the matrices D 2 Rr?r , E 2 Rr?n , F 2 Rn?r is sampled from a Gaussian distribution N (0, 1). Then they are normalized to have unit nuclear norm. The initial state vector s0 is drawn from N (0, Ir ) and the input white noise ut from N (0, In ). The measurement noise is modeled by adding an ? term to the output zt , so the actual observation is z t = zt + ?, where each entry of ? 2 Rn is a standard Gaussian noise, and is the noise level. Throughout this experiment, we set T = 1000, = 0.05, the maximum iteration limit as 100, and the stopping | k+1 k| criterion as kxk+1 xk kF < 10 3 or | min( < 10 3 . The initial iterate is a matrix of all k+1 , k )| ones. Algorithms. We compare our approach with the state-of-the-art competitors, i.e., the first-order methods proposed in [11]. Other methods, such as those in [15, 17, 25] suffer heavier computation cost per iteration, and are thus omitted from comparison. Fazel et al. [11] aim to solve either the primal or dual form of problem (2), using primal ADMM (PADMM), a variant of primal ADMM (PADMM2), a variant of dual ADMM (DADMM2), and a dual proximal point algorithm (DPPA). As for solving (7), we implemented generalized conditional gradient (GCG) and its local search variant (GCGLS). We also implemented the accelerated projected gradient with singular value thresholding (APG-SVT) to solve (8) by adopting the FISTA [2] scheme. To fairly compare both lines of methods for different formulations, in each iteration we track their objective values, the squared loss 1 bk2F (or 12 kA(y) bk2F ), and the rank of the Hankel matrix Hm,n,j,k (y). Since square 2 kA(Cx) loss measures how well the model fits the observations, and the Hankel matrix rank approximates the system order, comparison of these quantities obtained by different methods is meaningful. Result 1: Efficiency and Scalability. We compare the performance of different methods on two sizes of problems, and the result is shown in Figure 2. The most important observation is, our approach GCGLS/GCG significantly outperform the remaining competitors in term of running time. It is easy to see from Figure 2(a) and 2(b) that both the objective value and square loss by GCGLS/GCG drop drastically within a few seconds and is at least one order of magnitude faster than the runner-up competitor (DPPA) to reach a stable stage. The rest of baseline methods cannot even approach the minimum values achieved by GCGLS/GCG within the iteration limit. Figure 2(d) and 2(e) show that such advantage is amplified as size increases, which is consistent with the theoretical finding. Then, not surprisingly, we observe that the competitors become even slower if the problem size continues growing. Hence, we only test the scalability of our approach on larger sized problems, with the running time reported in Figure 1. We can see that the running time of GCGLS grows linearly w.r.t. the size M N , again consistent with previous analysis. Result 2: Rank of solution. We also report the rank of 5000 Hn,n,j,k (y) versus the running time in Figure 2(c) and 2(f), GCGLS GCG where y = Cx if we solve (2) or y directly comes from the 4000 solution of (7). The rank is computed as the number of sin3000 gular values larger than 10 3 . For the GCGLS/GCG, the it2000 erate starts from a low rank estimation and then gradually approaches the true one. However, for other competitors, the iter1000 ate first jumps to a full rank matrix and the rank of later iterate 0 0 1 2 3 drops gradually. Given that the solution is intrinsically of low Matrix Size (MN) x 10 rank, GCGLS/GCG will probably find the desired one more efficiently. In view of this, the working memory of GCGLS is Figure 1: Scalability of GCGLS and usually much smaller than the competitors, as it uses two low GCG. The size (M, N ) is labeled out. rank matrices U, V to represent but never materialize the solution until necessary. Run Time (8200, 40000) (6150, 30000) (4100, 20000) (2050, 10000) 8 3.2 Spectral Compressed Sensing In this part we apply our formulation and algorithm to another application, spectral compressed sensing (SCS), a technique that has by now been widely used in digital signal processing applications [6, 9, 29]. We show in particular that our reformulation (7) can effectively and rapidly recover partially observed signals. 6 5 5 4 2 10 GCGLS GCG PADMM PADMM2 DPPA DADMM2 APG?SVT 1 10 10 3 10 2 10 1 ?2 10 0 10 2 10 10 Run Time (seconds) 5 GCGLS GCG PADMM PADMM2 DPPA DADMM2 APG?SVT 1 10 ?2 10 Run Time (seconds) 10 2 10 1 0 10 ?2 10 2 10 10 Run Time (seconds) (d) Obj v.s. Time 1 2 10 10 3 10 10 3 0 10 Run Time (seconds) (c) Rank(y) v.s. Time 4 Square Loss Objective Value 2 1 10 10 ?1 10 2 10 5 10 10 0 10 10 4 10 2 10 (b) Sqr loss v.s. Time 10 GCGLS GCG PADMM PADMM2 DPPA DADMM2 APG?SVT 0 ?2 10 (a) Obj v.s. Time 3 GCGLS GCG PADMM PADMM2 DPPA DADMM2 APG?SVT Rank of Hankel(y) 10 10 Rank of Hankel(y) 4 10 3 3 10 Square Loss Objective Value 10 GCGLS GCG PADMM PADMM2 DPPA DADMM2 APG?SVT 2 10 GCGLS GCG PADMM PADMM2 DPPA DADMM2 APG?SVT 1 10 0 0 10 ?2 10 2 10 10 Run Time (seconds) (e) Sqr loss v.s. Time 0 10 2 10 Run Time (seconds) (f) Rank(y) v.s. Time Figure 2: Stochastic System Realization problem with j = 21, k = 100, r = 10, ? = 1.5 for formulation (2) and ? = 0.1 for (7). The first row corresponds to the case M = 420, N = 2000, n = m = 20, . The second row corresponds to the case M = 840, N = 4000, n = m = 40. Model. The problem of spectral compressed sensing aims to recover a frequency-sparse signal from a small number of observations. The 2-D signal Y (k, l), 0 < k ? n1 , 0 < l ? n2 is supposed to be the superposition of r 2-D sinusoids of arbitrary frequencies, i.e. (in the DFT form) Y (k, l) = r X di ej2?(kf1i +lf2i ) = i=1 r X di (ej2?f1i )k (ej2?f2i )l (16) i=1 where di is the amplitudes of the i-th sinusoid and (fxi , fyi ) is its frequency. Inspired by the conventional matrix pencil method [14] for estimating the frequencies of sinusoidal signals or complex sinusoidal (damped) signals, the authors in [6] propose to arrange the observed data into a 2-fold Hankel matrix whose rank is bounded above by r, and formulate the 2-D spectral compressed sensing problem into a rank minimization problem with respect to the 2-fold Hankel structure. This 2-fold structure is a also linear structure, as we explain in the appendix. Given limited observations, this problem can be viewed as a matrix completion problem that recovers a low-rank matrix from partially observed entries while preserving the pre-defined linear structure. The trace norm heuristic for rank (?) is again used here, as it is proved by [5] to be an exact method for matrix completion provided that the number of observed entries satisfies the corresponding information theoretic bound. Setup. Given a partial observed signal Y with ? as the observation index set, we adopt the formulation (7) and thus aim to solve the following problem: min X2RM ?N 1 kP? (mat(Cx)) 2 P? (Y )k2F + 2 kBxk2F + ?kXk? (17) where x = vec(X), mat(?) is the inverse of the vectorization operator on Y . In this context, as before, A = P? , b = P? (Y ), where P? (Y ) only keeps the entries of Y in the index set ? and (2) vanishes the others, Q(Y ) = Hk1 ,k2 (Y ) is the two-fold Hankel matrix, and corresponding B and (2) C can be found in the appendix to encode Hk1 ,k2 (Y ) = X . Further, the size of matrix here is M = k1 k2 , N = (n1 k1 + 1)(n2 k2 + 1). Algorithm. We apply our generalized conditional gradient method with local search (GCGLS) to solve the spectral compressed sensing problem, using the reformulation discussed above. Following 7 100 100 100 90 90 90 3 80 80 80 2 70 70 70 60 60 60 50 50 50 40 40 40 ?1 30 30 30 ?2 20 20 20 10 10 10 1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 (a) True 2-D Sinosuidal Signal 5 4 3 2 1 0 ?1 ?2 ?3 ?4 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 (b) Observed Entries 5 4 3 2 1 0 ?1 ?2 ?3 ?4 True Signal Observations 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 ?3 ?4 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 (c) Recovered Signal True Signal Recovered 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 (d) Observed Signal on Column 1 (e) Recovered Signal on Column 1 Figure 3: Spectral Compressed Sensing problem with parameters n1 = n2 = 101, r = 6, solved with our GCGLS algorithm using k1 = k2 = 8, ? = 0.1. The 2-D signals in the first row are colored by the jet colormap. The second row shows the 1-D signal extracted from the first column of the data matrix. the experiment setup in [6], we generate a ground truth data matrix Y 2 R101?101 through a superposition of r = 6 2-D sinusoids, randomly reveal 20% of the entries, and add i.i.d Gaussian noise with amplitude signal-to-noise ratio 10. Result. The results on the SCS problem are shown in Figure 3. The generated true 2-D signal Y is shown in Figure 3(a) using the jet colormap. The 20% observed entries of Y are shown in Figure 3(b), where the white entries are unobserved. The signal recovered by our GCGLS algorithm is shown in Figure 3(c). Comparing with the true signal in Figure 3(a), we can see that the result of our CGCLS algorithm is pretty close to the truth. To demonstrate the result more clearly, we extract a single column as a 1-D signals for further inspection. Figure 3(d) plots the original signal (blue line) as well as the observed ones (red dot), both from the first column of the 2-D signals. In 3(e), the recovered signal is represented by the red dashed dashed curve. It matches the original signal with significantly large portion, showing the success of our method in recovering partially observed 2-D signals from noise. Since the 2-fold structure used in this experiment is more complicated than that in the previous SSR task, this experiment further validates our algorithm on more complicated problems. 4 Conclusion In this paper, we address the structured matrix rank minimization problem. We first formulate the problem differently, so that it is amenable to adapt the Generalized Conditional Gradient Method. By doing so, we are able to achieve the complexity O(M N ) per iteration with a convergence rate O 1? . Then the overall complexity is by far the lowest compared to state-of-the-art methods for the structured matrix rank minimization problem. Our empirical studies on stochastic system realization and spectral compressed sensing further confirm the efficiency of the algorithm and the effectiveness of our reformulation. 8 References [1] B. Balle and M. Mohri. Spectral learning of general weighted automata via constrained matrix completion. In NIPS, pages 2168?2176, 2012. [2] A. Beck and M. Teboulle. A fast iterative shrinkage-thresholding algorithm for linear inverse problems. SIAM J. Imaging Sciences, 2(1):183?202, 2009. [3] K. Bredies, D. A. Lorenz, and P. Maass. A generalized conditional gradient method and its connection to an iterative shrinkage method. Computational Optimization and Applications, 42(2):173?193, 2009. [4] J. A. Cadzow. Signal enhancement: A composite property mapping algorithm. IEEE Transactions on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing, pages 39?62, 1988. [5] E. J. Cand`es and T. Tao. The power of convex relaxation: near-optimal matrix completion. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 56(5):2053?2080, 2010. [6] Y. Chen and Y. Chi. Spectral compressed sensing via structured matrix completion. In ICML, pages 414?422, 2013. [7] J. K. Cullum and R. A. Willoughby. Lanczos Algorithms for Large Symmetric Eigenvalue Computations, Vol. 1. Elsevier, 2002. [8] T. Ding, M. Sznaier, and O. I. Camps. A rank minimization approach to video inpainting. In ICCV, pages 1?8, 2007. [9] M. F. Duarte and R. G. Baraniuk. Spectral compressive sensing. Applied and Computational Harmonic Analysis, 35(1):111?129, 2013. [10] M. Fazel. Matrix rank minimization with applications. PhD thesis, Stanford University, 2002. [11] M. Fazel, T. K. Pong, D. Sun, and P. Tseng. Hankel matrix rank minimization with applications to system identification and realization. SIAM J. Matrix Analysis Applications, 34(3):946?977, 2013. [12] M. Frank and P. Wolfe. An algorithm for quadratic programming. Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, 3:95?110, 1956. [13] Z. Harchaoui, A. Juditsky, and A. Nemirovski. Conditional gradient algorithms for machine learning. In NIPS Workshop on Optimization for ML., 2012. [14] Y. Hua. Estimating two-dimensional frequencies by matrix enhancement and matrix pencil. IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 40(9):2267?2280, 1992. [15] M. Ishteva, K. Usevich, and I. Markovsky. Factorization approach to structured low-rank approximation with applications. SIAM J. Matrix Analysis Applcations, 35(3):1180?1204, 2014. [16] M. Jaggi. Revisiting Frank-Wolfe: Projection-free sparse convex optimization. In ICML, pages 427?435, 2013. [17] Z. Liu and L. Vandenberghe. Semidefinite programming methods for system realization and identification. In CDC, pages 4676?4681, 2009. [18] Z. Liu and L. Vandenberghe. Interior-point method for nuclear norm approximation with application to system identification. SIAM J. Matrix Analysis Applications, 31(3):1235?1256, 2009. [19] Z. Liu, A. Hansson, and L. Vandenberghe. Nuclear norm system identification with missing inputs and outputs. Systems & Control Letters, 62(8):605?612, 2013. [20] J. Mari, P. Stoica, and T. McKelvey. Vector ARMA estimation: a reliable subspace approach. IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 48(7):2092?2104, 2000. [21] I. Markovsky. Structured low-rank approximation and its applications. Automatica, 44(4):891?909, 2008. [22] B. Recht, M. Fazel, and P. A. Parrilo. Guaranteed minimum-rank solutions of linear matrix equations via nuclear norm minimization. SIAM Review, 52(3):471?501, 2010. [23] J. D. M. Rennie and N. Srebro. Fast maximum margin matrix factorization for collaborative prediction. In ICML, pages 713?719, 2005. [24] P. J. Shin, P. E. Larson, M. A. Ohliger, M. Elad, J. M. Pauly, D. B. Vigneron, and M. Lustig. Calibrationless parallel imaging reconstruction based on structured low-rank matrix completion. Magnetic Resonance in Medicine, 2013. [25] M. Signoretto, V. Cevher, and J. A. Suykens. An SVD-free approach to a class of structured low rank matrix optimization problems with application to system identification. Technical report, K.U.Leuven, 2013. 13-44, ESTA-SISTA. [26] N. Srebro, J. D. M. Rennie, and T. Jaakkola. Maximum-margin matrix factorization. In NIPS, 2004. [27] X. Zhang, Y. Yu, and D. Schuurmans. Accelerated training for matrix-norm regularization: A boosting approach. In NIPS, pages 2915?2923, 2012. [28] J. Zhou, J. Chen, and J. Ye. Multi-task learning: theory, algorithms, and applications. SIAM Data Mining Tutorial, 2012. [29] X. Zhu and M. Rabbat. Graph spectral compressed sensing. Technical report, McGill University, Tech. Rep, 2011. 9
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Ef?cient Minimax Signal Detection on Graphs Jing Qian Division of Systems Engineering Boston University Brookline, MA 02446 jingq@bu.edu Venkatesh Saligrama Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Boston University Boston, MA 02215 srv@bu.edu Abstract Several problems such as network intrusion, community detection, and disease outbreak can be described by observations attributed to nodes or edges of a graph. In these applications presence of intrusion, community or disease outbreak is characterized by novel observations on some unknown connected subgraph. These problems can be formulated in terms of optimization of suitable objectives on connected subgraphs, a problem which is generally computationally dif?cult. We overcome the combinatorics of connectivity by embedding connected subgraphs into linear matrix inequalities (LMI). Computationally ef?cient tests are then realized by optimizing convex objective functions subject to these LMI constraints. We prove, by means of a novel Euclidean embedding argument, that our tests are minimax optimal for exponential family of distributions on 1-D and 2-D lattices. We show that internal conductance of the connected subgraph family plays a fundamental role in characterizing detectability. 1 Introduction Signals associated with nodes or edges of a graph arise in a number of applications including sensor network intrusion, disease outbreak detection and virus detection in communication networks. Many problems in these applications can be framed from the perspective of hypothesis testing between null and alternative hypothesis. Observations under null and alternative follow different distributions. The alternative is actually composite and identi?ed by sub-collections of connected subgraphs. To motivate the setup consider the disease outbreak problem described in [1]. Nodes there are associated with counties and observations associated with each county correspond to reported cases of a disease. Under the null distribution, observations at each county are assumed to be poisson distributed and independent across different counties. Under the alternative there are a contiguous sub-collection of counties (connected sub-graph) that each experience elevated cases on average from their normal levels but are otherwise assumed to be independent. The eventual shape of the sub-collection of contiguous counties is highly unpredictable due to uncontrollable factors. In this paper we develop a novel approach for signal detection on graphs that is both statistically effective and computationally ef?cient. Our approach is based on optimizing an objective function subject to subgraph connectivity constraints, which is related to generalized likelihood ratio tests (GLRT). GLRTs maximize likelihood functions over combinatorially many connected subgraphs, which is computationally intractable. On the other hand statistically, GLRTs have been shown to be asymptotically minimax optimal for exponential class of distributions on Lattice graphs & Trees [2] thus motivating our approach.We deal with combinatorial connectivity constraints by obtaining a novel characterization of connected subgraphs in terms of convex Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs). In addition we show how our LMI constraints naturally incorporate other features such as shape and size. We show that the resulting tests are essentially minimax optimal for exponential family 1 of distributions on 1-D and 2-D lattices. Conductance of the subgraph, a parameter in our LMI constraint, plays a central role in characterizing detectability. Related Work: The literature on signal detection on graphs can be organized into parametric and non-parametric methods, which can be further sub-divided into computational and statistical analysis themes. Parametric methods originated in the scan statistics literature [3] with more recent work including that of [4, 5, 6, 1, 7, 8] focusing on graphs. Much of this literature develops scanning methods that optimize over rectangles, circles or neighborhood balls [5, 6] across different regions of the graphs. However, the drawbacks of simple shapes and the need for non-parametric methods to improve detection power is well recognized. This has led to new approaches such as simulated annealing [5, 4] but is lacking in statistical analysis. More recent work in ML literature [9] describes semi-de?nite programming algorithm for non-parametric shape detection, which is similar to our work here. However, unlike us their method requires a heuristic rounding step, which does not lend itself to statistical analysis. In this context a number of recent papers have focused on statistical analysis [10, 2, 11, 12] with non-parametric shapes. They derive fundamental bounds for signal detection for the elevated means testing problem in the Gaussian setting on special graphs such as trees and lattices. In this setting under the null hypothesis the observations are assumed to be independent identically distributed (IID) with standard normal random variables. Under the alternative the Gaussian random variables are assumed to be standard normal except on some connected subgraph where the mean ? is elevated. They show that GLRT achieves ?near?-minimax optimality in a number of interesting scenarios. While this work is interesting the suggested algorithms are computationally intractable. To the best of our knowledge only [13, 14] explores a computationally tractable approach and also provides statistical guarantees. Nevertheless, this line of work does not explicitly deal with connected subgraphs (complex shapes) but deals with more general clusters. These are graph partitions with small out-degree. Although this appears to be a natural relaxation of connected subgraphs/complex-shapes it turns out to be quite loose1 and leads to substantial gap in statistical effectiveness for our problem. In contrast we develop a new method for signal detection of complex shapes that is not only statistically effective but also computationally ef?cient. 2 Problem Formulation Let G = (V, E) denote an undirected unweighted graph with |V | = n nodes and |E| = m edges. Associated with each node, v ? V , are observations xv ? Rp . We assume observations are distributed P0 under the null hypothesis. The alternative is composite and the observed distribution, PS , is parameterized by S ? V belonging to a class of subsets ? ? S, where S is the superset. We denote by SK ? S the collection of size-K subsets. ES = {(u, v) ? E : u ? S, v ? S} denotes the induced edge set on S. We let xS denote the collection of random variables on the subset S ? V . S c denotes nodes V ? S. Our goal is to design a decision rule, ?, that maps observations xn = (xv )v?V to {0, 1} with zero denoting null hypothesis and one denoting the alternative. We formulate risk following the lines of [12] and combine Type I and Type II errors: R(?) = P0 (?(xn ) = 1) + max PS (?(xn ) = 0) S?? (1) De?nition 1 (?-Separable). We say that the composite hypothesis problem is ?-separable if there exists a test ? such that, R(?) ? ?. We next describe asymptotic notions of detectability and separability. These notions requires us to consider large-graph limits. To this end we index a sequence of graphs Gn = (Vn , En ) with n ? ? and an associated sequence of tests ?n . De?nition 2 (Separability). We say that the composite hypothesis problem is asymptotically ?separable if there is some sequence of tests, ?n , such that R(?n ) ? ? for suf?ciently large n. It is said to be asymptotically separable if R(?n ) ?? 0. The composite hypothesis problem is said to be asymptotically inseparable if no such test exists. Sometimes, additional granular measures of performance are often useful to determine asymptotic behavior of Type I and Type II error. This motivates the following de?nition: ? A connected ?has out-degree at least ?( K) while set of subgraphs with ? subgraph on a 2-D lattice of size K out-degree ?( K) includes disjoint union of ?( K/4) nodes. So statistical requirements with out-degree constraints can be no better than those for arbitrary K-sets. 1 2 De?nition 3 (?-Detectability). We say that the composite hypothesis testing problem is ?-detectable if there is a sequence of tests, ?n , such that, n?? sup PS (?n (xn ) = 0) ?? 0, lim sup P0 (?n (xn ) = 1) ? ? n S?? H In general ?-detectability does not imply separability. For instance, consider x ?0 N (0, ? 2 ) and  2 H x ?1 N (?, ?n ). It is ?-detectable for ?? ? 2 log 1? but not separable. Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test (GLRT) is often used as a statistical test for composite hypothesis testing. Suppose ?0 (xn ) and ?S (xn ) are probability density functions associated with P0 and PS respectively. The GLRT test thresholds the ?best-case? likelihood ratio, namely, H GLRT: 1 ?S (xn ) max (xn ) = max S (xn ) > ?, S (x) = log < S?? ?0 (xn ) H (2) 0 Local Behavior: Without additional structure, the likelihood ratio, S (x) for a ?xed S ? ? is a function of observations across all nodes. Many applications exhibit local behavior, namely, the observations under the two hypothesis behave distinctly only on some small subset of nodes (as in disease outbreaks). This justi?es introducing local statistical models in the following section. Combinatorial: The class ? is combinatorial such as collections of connected subgraphs and GLRT is not generally computationally tractable. On the other hand GLRT is minimax optimal for special classes of distributions and graphs and motivates development of tractable algorithms. 2.1 Statistical Models & Subgraph Classes The foregoing discussion motivates introducing local models, which we present next. Then informed by existing results on separability we categorize subgraph classes by shape, size and connectivity. 2.1.1 Local Statistical Models Signal in Noise Models arise in sensor network (SNET) intrusion [7, 15] and disease outbreak detection [1]. They are modeled with Gaussian (SNET) and Poisson (disease outbreak) distributions. H0 : x v = w v ; H1 : xv = ??uv 1S (v) + wv , for some, S ? ?, u ? S (3) For Gaussian case we model ? as a constant, wv as IID standard normal variables, ?uv as the propagation loss from source node u ? S to the node v. In disease outbreak detection ? = 1, ?uv ? P ois(?Nv ) and wv ? P ois(Nv ) are independent Poisson random variables, and Nv is the population of county v. In these cases S (x) takes the following local form where Zv is a normalizing constant.  S (x) = S (xS ) ? (?v (xv ) ? log(Zv ))1S (v) (4) v?V We characterize ?0 , ?0 as the minimum value that ensures separability for the different models: ?0 = inf{? ? R+ | ??n , lim R(?n ) = 0}, ?0 = inf{? ? R+ | ??n , lim R(?n ) = 0} (5) n?? n?? Correlated Models arise in textured object detection [16] and protein subnetwork detection [17]. For instance consider a common random signal z on S, which results in uniform correlation ? > 0 on S.  H0 : xv = wv ; H1 : xv = ( ?(1 ? ?)?1 )z1S (v) + wv , for some, S ? ?, (6) z, wv are standard IID normal random variables. Again we obtain S (x) = S (xS ). These examples motivate the following general setup for local behavior: De?nition 4. The distributions P0 and PS are said to exhibit local structure if they satisfy: (1) Markovianity: The null distribution P0 satis?es the properties of a Markov Random Field (MRF). Under the distribution PS the observations xS are conditionally independent of xS1c when conditioned on annulus S1 ? S c , where S1 = {v ? V | d(v, w) ? 1, w ? S}, is the 1-neighborhood of S. (2) Mask: Marginal distributions of observations under P0 and PS on nodes in S c are identical: P0 (xS c ? A) = PS (xS c ? A), ? A ? A, the ?-algebra of measurable sets. Lemma 1 ([7]). Under conditions (1) and (2) it follows that S (x) = S (xS1 ). 3 2.1.2 Structured Subgraphs Existing works [10, 2, 12] point to the important role of size, shape and connectivity in determining detectability. For concreteness we consider the signal in noise model for Gaussian distribution and tabulate upper bounds from existing results for ?0 (Eq. 5). The lower bounds are messier and differ by logarithmic factors but this suf?ces for our discussion here. The table reveals several important points. Larger sets are easier to detect ? ?0 decreases with size; connected K-sets are easier to detect relative to arbitrary K-sets; for 2-D lattices ?thick? connected shapes are easier to detect than ?thin? sets (paths); ?nally detectability on complete graphs is equivalent to arbitrary K-sets, i.e., shape does not matter. Intuitively, these tradeoffs make sense. For a constant ?, ?signal-to-noise? ratio increases with size. Combinatorially, there are fewer K-connected sets than arbitrary K-sets; fewer connected balls than connected paths; and fewer connected sets in 2-D lattices than dense graphs. These results point to the need for characterizing the signal detection problem in terms of Line Graph 2-D Lattice Complete Arbitrary  K-Set  ? 2 log(n)   ? 2 log(n)   ? 2 log(n) K-Connected Ball   2 ? log(n)  K  2 ? log(n) K  ? 2 log(n) K-Connected Path   2 ? log(n) K ? (1)   ? 2 log(n) connectivity, size, shape and the properties of the ambient graph. We also observe that the table is somewhat incomplete. While balls can be viewed as thick shapes and paths as thin shapes, there are a plethora of intermediate shapes. A similar issue arises for sparse vs. dense graphs. We introduce general de?nitions to categorize shape and graph structures below. De?nition 5 (Internal Conductance). (a.k.a. Cut Ratio) Let H = (S, FS ) denote a subgraph of G = (V, E) where S ? V , FS ? ES , written as H ? G. De?ne the internal conductance of H as: ?(H) = min A?S |?S (A)| ; ?S (A) = {(u, v) ? FS | u ? A, v ? S ? A} min{|A|, |S ? A|} (7) Apparently ?(H) = 0 if H is not connected. The internal conductance of a collection of subgraphs, ?, is de?ned as the smallest internal conductance: ?(?) = min ?(H) H?? For future reference we denote the collection of connected subgraphs by C and by Ca,? the subcollections containing node a ? V with minimal internal conductance ?: C = {H ? G : ?(H) > 0}, Ca,? = {H = (S, FS ) ? G : a ? S, ?(H) ? ?} (8) ? In 2-D lattices, for example, ?(BK ) ? ?(1/ K) for connected K-balls BK or other thick shapes of size K. ?(C ? SK ) ? ?(1/K) due to ?snake?-like thin shapes. Thus internal conductance explicitly accounts for shape of the sets. 3 Convex Programming We develop a convex optimization framework for generating test statistics for local statistical models described in Section 2.1. Our approach relaxes the combinatorial constraints and the functional objectives of the GLRT problem of Eq.(2). In the following section we develop a new characterization based on linear matrix inequalities that accounts for size, shape and connectivity of subgraphs. ? For future reference we denote A ? B = [Aij Bij ]i,j . Our ?rst step is to embed subgraphs, H of G, into matrices. A binary symmetric incidence matrix, A, is associated with an undirected graph G = (V, E), and encodes edge relationships. Formally, the edge set E is the support of A, namely, E = Supp(A). For subgraph correspondences we consider symmetric matrices, M , with components taking values in the unit interval, [0, 1]. M = {M ? [0, 1]n?n | Muv ? Muu , M Symmetric} 4 De?nition 6. M ? M is said to correspond to a subgraph H = (S, FS ), written as H  M , if S = Supp{Diag(M )}, FS = Supp(A ? M ) The role of M ? M is to ensure that if u ? S we want the corresponding edges Muv = 0. Note that A ? M in Defn. 6 removes the spurious edges Muv = 0 for (u, v) ? / ES . Our second step is to characterize connected subgraphs as convex subsets of M. Now a subgraph H = (S, FS ) is a connected subgraph if for every u, v ? S, there is a path consisting only of edges in FS going from u to v. This implies that for two subgraphs H1 , H2 and corresponding matrices M1 and M2 , their convex combination M? = ?M1 + (1 ? ?)M2 , ? ? (0, 1) naturally corresponds to H = H1 ? H2 in the sense of Defn 6. On the other hand if H1 ? H2 = ? then H is disconnected and so M? is as well. This motivates our convex characterization with a common ?anchor? node. To this end we consider the following collection of matrices: M?a = {M ? M | Maa = 1, Mvv ? Mav } Note that M?a includes star graphs induced on subsets S = Supp(Diag(M )) with anchor node a. We now make use of the well known properties [18] of the Laplacian of a graph to characterize connectivity. The unnormalized Laplacian matrix of an undirected graph G with incidence matrix A is described by L(A) = diag(A1n ) ? A where 1n is the all-one vector. Lemma 2. Graph G is connected if and only if the number of zero eigenvalues of L(A) is one. Unfortunately, we cannot directly use this fact on the subgraph A ? M because there are many zero eigenvalues because the complement of Supp(Diag(M )) is by de?nition zero. We employ linear matrix inequalities (LMI) to deal with this issue. The condition [19] F (x) = F0 + F1 x1 + ? ? ? + Fp xp  0 with symmetric matrices Fj is called a linear matrix inequality in xj ? R with respect to the positive semi-de?nite cone represented by . Note that the Laplacian of the subgraph L(A ? M ) is a linear matrix function of M . We denote a collection of subgraphs as follows: ? CLM I (a, ?) = {H  M | M ? M?a , L(A ? M ) ? ?L(M )  0} (9) Theorem 3. The class CLM I (a, ?) is connected for ? > 0. Furthermore, every  connected subgraph can be characterized in this way for some a ? V and ? > 0, namely, C = a?V,?>0 CLM I (a, ?). Proof Sketch. M ? CLM I (a, ?) implies M is connected. By de?nition of Ma there must be a star graph that is a subgraph on Supp(Diag(M )). This means that L(M ) (hence L(A ? M )) can only have one zero eigenvalue on Supp(Diag(M )). We can now invoke Lemma 2 on Supp(Diag(M )). The other direction is based on hyperplane separation of convex sets. Note that Ca,? is convex but C is not. This necessitates the need for an anchor. In practice this means that we have to search for connected sets with different anchors. This is similar to scan statistics the difference being that we can now optimize over arbitrary shapes. We next get a handle on ?. ? encodes Shape: We will relate ? to the internal conductance of the class C. This provides us with a tool to choose ? to re?ect the type of connected sets that we expect for our alternative hypothesis. In particular thick sets correspond to relatively large ? and thin sets to small ?. In general for graphs of ?xed size the minimum internal conductance over all connected shapes is strictly positive and we can set ? to be this value if we do not a priori know the shape. 2 ? Theorem 4. In a 2-D lattice, it follows that Ca,? ? CLM I (a, ?), where ? = ?( log(1/?) ). LMI-Test: We are now ready to present our test statistics. We replace indicator variables with the corresponding matrix components in Eq. 4, i.e., 1S (v) ? Mvv , 1S (u)1S (v) ? Muv and obtain:  Elevated Mean: M (x) = (?v (xv ) ? log(Zv ))Mvv v?V   Correlated Gaussian: M (x) ? ?(xu , xv )Muv ? Mvv log(1 ? ?) (10) v (u,v)?E LMITa,? a,? (x) = max M ?CLM I (a,?) H1 M (x) > < ? (11) H0 This test explicitly makes use of the fact that alternative hypothesis is anchored at a and the internal conductance parameter ? is known. We will re?ne this test to deal with the completely agnostic case in the following section. 5 4 Analysis In this section we analyze LMITa,? and the agnostic LMI tests for the Elevated Mean problem for exponential family of distributions on 2-D lattices. For concreteness we focus on Gaussian & Poisson models and derive lower and bounds for ?0 (see Eq. 5). Our main result states that 1 upper , where ? is the internal conductance of the family Ca,? of to guarantee separability, ?0 ? ? K? connected subgraphs, K is the size of the subgraphs in the family, and a is some node that is common to all the subgraphs. The reason for our focus on homogenous Gaussian/Poisson setting is that we can extend current lower bounds in the literature to our more general setting and demonstrate that they match the bounds obtained from our LMIT analysis. We comment on how our LMIT analysis extends to other general structures and models later. The proof for LMIT analysis involves two steps (see Supplementary): 1. Lower Bound: Under H1 we show that the ground truth is a feasible solution. This allows us to lower bound the objective value, a,? (x), of Eq. 11. 2. Upper Bound: Under H0 we consider the dual problem. By weak duality it follows that any feasible solution of the dual is an upper bound for a,? (x). A dual feasible solution is then constructed through a novel Euclidean embedding argument. We then compare the upper and lower bounds to obtain the critical value ?0 . We analyze both non-agnostic and agnostic LMI tests for the homogenous version of Gaussian and Poisson models of Eq. 3 for both ?nite and asymptotic 2-D lattice graphs. For the ?nite case the family of subgraphs in Eq. 3 is assumed to belong to the connected family of sets, Ca,? ? SK , containing a ?xed common node a ? V of size K. For the asymptotic case we let the size of the graph approach in?nity (n ? ?). For this case we consider a sequence of connected family of sets n Ca.? ? SKn on graph Gn = (Vn , En ) with some ?xed anchor node a ? Vn . We will then describe n results for agnostic LMI tests, i.e., lacking knowledge of conductance ? and anchor node a. Poisson Model: In Eq. 3 we let the population Nv to be identically equal to one across counties. We present LMI tests that are agnostic to shape and anchor nodes: LMITA : (x) = max 2 a?V,???min ? H0 ?a,? (x) > < 0 (12) H1 where ?min denotes the minimum possible conductance of a connected subgraph with size K, which is 2/K. Theorem 5. The LMITa,? test achieves ?-separability for ? = ?( log(K) K? ) and the agnostic test ? LMITA for ? = ?(log K log n). Next we consider the asymptotic case and characterize tight bounds for separability. Theorem 6. The two hypothesis H0 and H1 are asymptotically inseparable if ?n ?n Kn log(Kn ) ? 0. It is asymptotically separable with LMITa,? for ?? n Kn ?n / log(Kn ) ? ?. The agnostic LMITA achieves asymptotic separability with ?n /(log(Kn ) log n) ? ?. Gaussian Model: We next consider agnostic tests for Gaussian model of Eq. 3 with no propagation loss, i.e., ?uv = 1. Theorem 7. The two hypotheses H0 and H1 for the Gaussian model are asymptotically inseparable if ?n ?n Kn log(Kn ) ? 0, are separable with LMITa,? if ?n Kn ?n / log(Kn ) ? ?, and are ? separable with LMITA if ?n /(log(Kn ) log n) ? ? Our inseparability bound matches existing results on 2-D Lattice & Line Graphs by plugging in appropriate values for ? for the cases considered in [2, 12]. The lower bound is obtained by specializing to a collection of ?non-decreasing band? subgraphs.Yet LMITa,? and LMITA is able to achieves the lower bound within a logarithmic factor. Furthermore, our analysis extends beyond Poisson & Gaussian models and applies to general graph structures and models. The main reason is that our LMIT analysis is fairly general and provides an observation-dependent bound through convex duality. We brie?y describe it here. Consider functions S (x) that are positive, separable 6 16 16 16 16 14 14 14 14 12 12 12 12 10 10 10 10 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 0 2 (a) Thick shape 4 6 8 0 10 (b) Thin shape 2 0 2 4 6 8 (c) Snake shape 10 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 (d) Thin shape(8-neighbors) Figure 1: Various shapes of ground-truth anomalous clusters on a ?xed 15?10 lattice. Anomalous cluster size is ?xed at 17 nodes. (a) shows a thick cluster with a large internal conductance. (b) shows a relatively thinner shape. (c) shows a snake-like shape which has the smallest internal conductance. (d) shows the same shape of (b), with the background lattice more densely connected. and bounded for simplicity. By establishing primal feasibility that the subgraph S ? CLM I (a, ?) for a suitably chosen ?, we can obtain a lower bound for the alternative hypothesis H1 and show that EH1 maxM ?CLM I (a,?) M (x) ? EH1 v?S S (xv ) . Onthe other hand for the null  hypothesis  ? we can show that, EH0 maxM ?CLM I (a,?) M (x) ? EH0 v?B(a,?( ?)) S (xv ) . Here EH1 ? and EH0 denote expectations with respect to alternative ? and null hypothesis and B(a, ?( ?)) is a ball-like thick shape centered at a ? V with radius ?( ?). Our result then follows by invoking standard concentration inequalities. We can extend our analysis to the non-separable case such as correlated models because of the linear objective form in Eq. 10. 5 Experiments We present several experiments to highlight key properties of LMIT and to compare LMIT against other state-of-art parametric and non-parametric tests on synthetic and real-world data. We have shown that agnostic LMIT is near minimax optimal in terms of asymptotic separability. However, separability is an asymptotic notion and only characterizes the special case of zero false alarms (FA) and missed detections (MD), which is often impractical. It is unclear how LMIT behaves with ?nite size graphs when FAs and MDs are prevalent. In this context incorporating priors could indeed be important. Our goal is to highlight how shape prior (in terms of thick, thin, or arbitrary shapes) can be incorporated in LMIT using the parameter ? to obtain better AUC performance in ?nite size graphs. Another goal is to demonstrate how LMIT behaves with denser graph structures. From the practical perspective, our main step is to solve the following SDP problem:  max : yi Mii s.t. M ? CLM I (a, ?), tr(M ) ? K M i We use standard SDP solvers which can scale up to n ? 1500 nodes for sparse graphs like lattice and n ? 300 nodes for dense graphs with m = ?(n2 ) edges. To understand the impact of shape we consider the test LMITa,? for Gaussian model  and manually vary ?. On a 15?10 lattice we ?x the size (17 nodes) and the signal strength ? |S| = 3, and consider three different shapes (see Fig. 1) for the alternative hypothesis. For each shape we synthetically simulate 100 null and 100 alternative hypothesis and plot AUC performance of LMIT as a function of ?. We observe that the optimum value of AUC for thick shapes is achieved for large ? and small ? for thin shape con?rming our intuition that ? is a good surrogate for shape. In addition we notice that thick shapes have superior AUC performance relative to thin shapes, again con?rming intuition of our analysis. To understand the impact of dense graph structures we consider performance of LMIT with neighborhood size. On the lattice of the previous experiment we vary neighborhood by connecting each node to its 1-hop, 2-hop, and 3-hop neighbors to realize denser structures with each node having 4, 8 and 12 neighbors respectively. Note that all the different graphs have the same vertex set. This is convenient because we can hold the shape under the alternative ?xed for the different graphs. As before we generate 100 alternative hypothesis using the thin set of the previous experiment with the same mean ? and 100 nulls. The AUC curves for the different graphs highlight the fact that higher density leads to degradation in performance as our intuition with complete graphs suggests. We also 7 1 = 0.05 AUC=0.899 = 0.2 AUC=0.952 = 0.05 AUC=0.899 0.95 = 0.1 AUC=0.874 0.9 AUC performance AUC performance 0.9 0.85 = 0.02 AUC=0.865 0.8 0.85 = 0.2 AUC=0.855 0.8 0.75 0.75 Thick shape Thin shape Snake shape 0.7 0.65 3 10 2 10 0.7 1 10 LMIT shape parameter 0 10 0.65 3 10 1 10 (a) AUC with various shapes 4neighbor lattice 8neighbor lattice 12neighbor lattice 2 10 1 10 LMIT shape parameter 0 10 1 10 (b) AUC with different graph structures Figure 2: (a) demonstrates AUC performances with ?xed lattice structure, signal strength ? and size (17 nodes), but different shapes of ground-truth clusters, as shown in Fig.1. (b) demonstrates AUC performances with ?xed signal strength ?, size (17 nodes) and shape (Fig.1(b)), but different lattice structures. see that as density increases a larger ? achieves better performance con?rming our intuition that as density increases the internal conductance of the shape increases. In this part we compare LMIT against existing state-of-art approaches on a 300-node lattice, a 200node random geometric graph (RGG), and a real-world county map graph (129 nodes) (see Fig.3,4). We incorporate shape priors by setting ? (internal conductance) to correspond to thin sets. While this implies some prior knowledge, we note that this is not necessarily the optimal value for ? and we are still agnostic to the actual ground truth shape (see Fig.3,4). For the lattice and RGG we use the elevated-mean Gaussian model. Following [1] we adopt an elevated-rate independent Poisson model for the county map graph. Here Ni is the population of county, i. Under null the number of cases at county i, follows a Poisson distribution with rate Ni ?0 and under the alternative a rate Ni ?1 within some connected subgraph. We assume ?1 > ?0 and apply a weighted version of LMIT of Eq. 12, which arises on account of differences in population. We compare LMIT against several other tests, including simulated annealing (SA) [4], rectangle test (Rect), nearest-ball test (NB), and two naive tests: maximum test (MaxT) and average test (AvgT). SA is a non-parametric test and works by heuristically adding/removing nodes toward a better normalized GLRT objective while maintaining connectivity. Rect and NB are parametric methods with Rect scanning rectangles on lattice and NB scanning nearest-neighbor balls around different nodes for more general graphs (RGG and countymap graph). MaxT & AvgT are often used for comparison purposes. MaxT is based on thresholding the maximum observed value while AvgT is based on thresholding the average value. We observe that uniformly MaxT and AvgT perform poorly. This makes sense; It is well known that MaxT works well only for alternative of small size while AvgT works well with relatively large sized alternatives [11]. Parametric methods (Rect/NB) performs poorly because the shape of the ground truth under the alternative cannot be well-approximated by Rectangular or Nearest Neighbor Balls. Performance of SA requires more explanation. One issue could be that SA does not explicitly incorporate shape and directly searches for the best GLRT solution. We have noticed that this has the tendency to amplify the objective value of null hypothesis because SA exhibits poor ?regularization? over the shape. On the other hand LMIT provides some regularization for thin shape and does not admit arbitrary connected sets. Table 1: AUC performance of various algorithms on a 300-node lattice, a 200-node RGG, and the county map graph. On all three graphs LMIT signi?cantly outperforms the other tests consistently for all SNR levels. SNR LMIT SA Rect(NB) MaxT AvgT  lattice (? |S|/?) 1.5 2 3 0.728 0.780 0.882 0.672 0.741 0.827 0.581 0.637 0.748 0.531 0.547 0.587 0.565 0.614 0.705  RGG (? |S|/?) 1.5 2 3 0.642 0.723 0.816 0.627 0.677 0.756 0.584 0.632 0.701 0.529 0.562 0.624 0.545 0.623 0.690 8 map (?1 /?0 ) 1.1 1.3 1.5 0.606 0.842 0.948 0.556 0.744 0.854 0.514 0.686 0.791 0.525 0.559 0.543 0.536 0.706 0.747 References [1] G. P. Patil and C. Taillie. Geographic and network surveillance via scan statistics for critical area detection. In Statistical Science, volume 18(4), pages 457?465, 2003. [2] E. Arias-Castro, E. J. Candes, H. Helgason, and O. Zeitouni. Searching for a trail of evidence in a maze. In The Annals of Statistics, volume 36(4), pages 1726?1757, 2008. [3] J. Glaz, J. Naus, and S. Wallenstein. Scan Statistics. Springer, New York, 2001. [4] L. Duczmal and R. Assuncao. A simulated annealing strategy for the detection of arbitrarily shaped spatial clusters. In Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, volume 45, pages 269? 286, 2004. [5] M. Kulldorff, L. Huang, L. Pickle, and L. Duczmal. An elliptic spatial scan statistic. In Statistics in Medicine, volume 25, 2006. [6] C. E. Priebe, J. M. Conroy, D. J. Marchette, and Y. Park. Scan statistics on enron graphs. In Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, 2006. [7] V. Saligrama and M. Zhao. Local anomaly detection. In Arti?cial Intelligence and Statistics, volume 22, 2012. [8] V. Saligrama and Z. Chen. Video anomaly detection based on local statistical aggregates. 2013 IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, 0:2112?2119, 2012. [9] J. Qian and V. Saligrama. Connected sub-graph detection. In International Conference on Arti?cial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS), 2014. [10] E. Arias-Castro, D. Donoho, and X. Huo. Near-optimal detection of geometric objects by fast multiscale methods. In IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, volume 51(7), pages 2402?2425, 2005. [11] Addario-Berry, N. Broutin, L. Devroye, and G. Lugosi. On combinatorial testing problems. In The Annals of Statistics, volume 38(5), pages 3063?3092, 2010. [12] E. Arias-Castro, E. J. Candes, and A. Durand. Detection of an anomalous cluster in a network. In The Annals of Statistics, volume 39(1), pages 278?304, 2011. [13] J. Sharpnack, A. Rinaldo, and A. Singh. Changepoint detection over graphs with the spectral scan statistic. In International Conference on Arti?cial Intelligence and Statistics, 2013. [14] J. Sharpnack, A. Krishnamurthy, and A. Singh. Near-optimal anomaly detection in graphs using lovasz extended scan statistic. In Neural Information Processing Systems, 2013. [15] Erhan Baki Ermis and Venkatesh Saligrama. Distributed detection in sensor networks with limited range multimodal sensors. IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 58(2):843?858, 2010. [16] G. R. Cross and A. K. Jain. Markov random ?eld texture models. In IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, volume 5, pages 25?39, 1983. [17] M. Bailly-Bechet, C. Borgs, A. Braunstein, J. T. Chayes, A.Dagkessamanskaia, J. Francois, and R. Zecchina. Finding undetected protein associations in cell signaling by belief propagation. In Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), volume 108, pages 882?887, 2011. [18] F. Chung. Spectral graph theory. American Mathematical Society, 1996. [19] S. Boyd and L. Vandenberghe. Convex Optimization. Cambridge University Press, 2004. 9
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Signal Aggregate Constraints in Additive Factorial HMMs, with Application to Energy Disaggregation Mingjun Zhong, Nigel Goddard, Charles Sutton School of Informatics University of Edinburgh United Kingdom {mzhong,nigel.goddard,csutton}@inf.ed.ac.uk Abstract Blind source separation problems are difficult because they are inherently unidentifiable, yet the entire goal is to identify meaningful sources. We introduce a way of incorporating domain knowledge into this problem, called signal aggregate constraints (SACs). SACs encourage the total signal for each of the unknown sources to be close to a specified value. This is based on the observation that the total signal often varies widely across the unknown sources, and we often have a good idea of what total values to expect. We incorporate SACs into an additive factorial hidden Markov model (AFHMM) to formulate the energy disaggregation problems where only one mixture signal is assumed to be observed. A convex quadratic program for approximate inference is employed for recovering those source signals. On a real-world energy disaggregation data set, we show that the use of SACs dramatically improves the original AFHMM, and significantly improves over a recent state-of-the-art approach. 1 Introduction Many learning tasks require separating a time series into a linear combination of a larger number of ?source? signals. This general problem of blind source separation (BSS) arises in many application domains, including audio processing [17, 2], computational biology [1], and modelling electricity usage [8, 12]. This problem is difficult because it is inherently underdetermined and unidentifiable, as there are many more sources than dimensions in the original time series. The unidentifiability problem is especially serious because often the main goal of interest is for people to interpret the resulting source signals. For example, consider the application of energy disaggregation. In this application, the goal is to help people understand what appliances in their home use the most energy; the time at which the appliance is used is of less importance. To place an electricity monitor on every appliance in a household is expensive and intrusive, so instead researchers have proposed performing BSS on the total household electricity usage [8, 22, 15]. If this is to be effective, we must deal with the issue of identifiability: it will not engender confidence to show the householder a ?franken-appliance? whose electricity usage looks like a toaster from 8am to 10am, a hot water heater until 12pm, and a television until midnight. To address this problem, we need to incorporate domain knowledge regarding what sorts of sources we are hoping to find. Recently a number of general frameworks have been proposed for incorporating prior constraints into general-purpose probabilistic models. These include posterior regularization [4], the generalized expectation criterion [14], and measurement-based learning [13]. However, all of these approaches leave open the question of what types of domain knowledge we should include. This paper considers precisely that research issue, namely, how to identify classes 1 of constraints for which we often have prior knowledge, which are general across a wide variety of domains, and for which we can perform efficient computation. In this paper we observe that in many applications of BSS, the total signal often varies widely across the different unknown sources, and we often have a good idea of what total values to expect. We introduce signal aggregate constraints (SACs) that encourage the aggregate values, such as the sums, of the source signals to be close to some specified values. For example, in the energy disaggregation problem, we know in advance that a toaster might use 50 Wh in a day and will be most unlikely to use as much as 1000 Wh. We incorporate these constraints into an additive factorial hidden Markov model (AFHMM), a commonly used model for BSS [17]. SACs raise difficult inference issues, because each constraint is a function of the entire state sequence of one chain of the AFHMM, and does not decompose according to the Markov structure of the model. We instead solve a relaxed problem and transform the optimization problem into a convex quadratic program which is computationally efficient. On real-world data from the electricity disaggregation domain (Section 7.2.2), we show that the use of SACs significantly improves performance, resulting in a 45% decrease in normalized disaggregation error compared to the original AFHMM, and a significant improvement (29%) in performance compared to a recent state-of-the-art approach to the disaggregation problem [12]. To summarize, the contributions of this paper are: (a) introducing signal aggregate constraints for blind source separation problems (Section 4), (b) a convex quadratic program for the relaxed AFHMM with SACs (Section 5), and (c) an evaluation (Section 7) of the use of SACs on a realworld problem in energy disaggregation. 2 Related Work The problem of energy disaggregation, also called non-intrusive load monitoring, was introduced by [8] and has since been the subject of intense research interest. Reviews on energy disaggregation can be found in [22] and [24]. Various approaches have been proposed to improve the basic AFHMM by constraining the states of the HMMs. The additive factorial approximate maximum a posteriori (AFAMAP) algorithm in [12] introduces the constraint that at most one chain can change state at any one time point. Another approach [21] proposed non-homogeneous HMMs combining with the constraint of changing at most one chain at a time. Alternately, semi-Markov models represent duration distributions on the hidden states and are another approach to constrain the hidden states. These have been applied to the disaggregation problems by [11] and [10]. Both [12] and [16] employ other kinds of additional information to improve the AFHMM. Other approaches could also be applicable for constraining the AFHMM, e.g., the k-segment constraints introduced for HMMs [19]. Some work in probabilistic databases has considered aggregate constraints [20], but that work considers only models with very simple graphical structure, namely, independent discrete variables. 3 Problem Setting Suppose we have observed a time series of sensor readings, for example the energy measured in watt hours by an electricity meter, denoted by Y = (Y1 , Y2 , ? ? ? , YT ) where Yt ? R+ . It is assumed that this signal was aggregated from some component signals, for example the energy consumption of individual appliances used by the household. Suppose there were I components, and for each component, the signal is represented as Xi = (xi1 , xi2 , ? ? ? , xiT ) where xit ? R+ . Therefore, the observation signal could be represented as the summation of the component signals as follows Yt = I X xit + t (1) i=1 where t is assumed Gaussian noise with zero mean and variance ?t2 . The disaggregation problem is then to recover the unknown time series Xi given only the observed data Y . This is essentially the BSS problem [3] where only one mixture signal was observed. As discussed earlier, there is no 2 unique solution for this model, due to the identifiability problem: component signals are exchangeable. 4 Models Our models in this paper will assume that the component signals Xi can be modelled by a hidden Markov chain, in common with much work in BSS. For simplicity, each Markov chain is assumed to have a finite set of states such that for the chain i, xit ? ?it for some ?it ? {?i1 , ? ? ? , ?iKi } where Ki denotes the number of the states in chain i. The idea of the SAC is fairly general, however, and could be easily incorporated into other models of the hidden sources. 4.1 The Additive Factorial HMM Our baseline model will be the AFHMM. The AFHMM is a natural model for generation of an aggregated signal Y where the component signals Xi are assumed each to be a hidden Markov chain with states Zit ? {1, 2, ? ? ? , Ki } over time t. In the AFHMM, and variants such as AFAMAP, the model parameters, denoted by ?, are unknown. These parameters are the ?ik ; the initial probabilities ?i = (?i1 , ? ? ? , ?iKi )T for each chain where ?ik = P (Zi1 = k); and the transition probabilities (i) pjk = P (Zit = j|Zi,t?1 = k). Those parameters can be estimated by using approximation methods such as the structured variational approximation [5]. In this paper we focus on inferring the sequence over time of hidden states Zit for each hidden Markov chain; ? are assumed known. We are interested in maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference, and the posterior distribution has the following form P (Z|Y ) ? I Y T Y P (Zi1 ) i=1 p(Yt |Zt ) t=1 I T Y Y P (Zit |Zi,t?1 ) (2) t=2 i=1 PI where p(Yt |Zt ) = N ( i=1 ?i,zit , ?t2 ) is a Gaussian distribution. An alternative way to represent the posterior distibution would use a binary vector Sit = (Sit1 , Sit2 , ? ? ? , SitKi )T to represent the discrete variable Zit such that Sitk = 1 when Zit = k and for all Sitj = 0 when j 6= k. The logarithm of posterior distribution over S then has the following form log P (S|Y ) ? I X i=1 T Si1 log ?i + T X I X T Sit  log P t=2 i=1 (i)  T 1X 1 Si,t?1 ? 2 t=1 ?t2 Yt ? I X !2 T Sit ?i (3) i=1 (i) where P (i) = (pjk ) is the transition probability matrix and ?i = (?i1 , ?i2 , ? ? ? , ?iKi )T . Exact inference is not tractable as the numbers of chains and states increase. A MAP value can be conveniently found by using the chainwise Viterbi algorithm [18], which optimizes jointly over each chain Si1 . . . SiT in sequence, holding the other chains constant. However, the chainwise Viterbi algorithm can get stuck in local optima. Instead, in this paper we solve a convex quadratic program for a relaxed version of the MAP problem (see Section 5). However, this solution is not guaranteed optimal due to the identifiability problem. Many efforts have been made to provide tractable solutions to this problem by constraining the states of the hidden Markov chains. In the next section we introduce signal aggregate constraints, which will help to address this problem. 4.2 The Additive Factorial HMM with Signal Aggregate Constraints Now we add Signal Aggregate Constraints to the AFHMM, yielding a new model AFHMM+SAC. The AFHMM+SAC assumes that the aggregate value of each component signal i over the entire sequence is expected to be a certain value ?i0 , which is known in advance. In other words, the PT SAC assumes t=1 xit ? ?i0 . The constraint values ?i0 (i = 1, 2, ? ? ? , I) could be obtained from expert knowledge or by experiments. For example, in the energy disaggregation domain, extensive research has been undertaken to estimate the average national consumption of different appliances [23]. 3 Incorporating this constraint into the AFHMM, using the formulation from (3), results in the following optimization problem for MAP inference log P (S|Y ) maximize S T X subject to !2 ?Ti Sit ? ?i0 (4) ? ?i , i = 1, 2, ? ? ? , I, t=1 where ?i0 (i = 1, 2, ? ? ? , I) are assumed known, and ?i ? 0 is a tuning parameter which has the similar role as the ones used in ridge regression and LASSO [9]. Instead of solving this optimization problem directly, we equivalently solve the penalized objective function maximize L(S) = log P (S|Y ) ? S I X i=1 ?i T X !2 ?Ti Sit ? ?i0 , (5) t=1 where ?i ? 0 is a complexity parameter which has a one-to-one correspondence with the tuning parameter ?i . In the Bayesian point of view, the constraint terms could be viewed as the logarithm of the prior distributions over the states S. Therefore, the objective can be viewed as a log posterior distribution over S. Now the Viterbi algorithm is not applicable directly since at any time t, the state Sit depends on all the states at all time steps, because of the regularization terms which are non-Markovian inherently. Therefore, in the following section we transform the optimization problem (5) into a convex quadratic program which can be efficiently solved. Note that the constraints in equation (4) could be generalised. Rather than making only one constraint on each chain in the time period [0, T ] (as described above), a series of constraints could be made. We could define J constraints such that, for j = 1, 2, ? ? ? , J, the j th constraint for chain i is:  b 2 Ptij j T ? S ? ? ? ?ij where [taij , tbij ] denotes the time period for the constraint. This (i) (i) i i,? i0 a ?j =tij j could be reasonable particularly in household energy data to represent the fact that some appliances are commonly used during the daytime and are unlikely to be used between 2am and 5am. This is a straightforward extension that does not complicate the algorithms, so for presentational simplicity, we only use a single constraint per chain, as shown in (4), in the rest of this paper. 5 Convex Quadratic Programming for AFHMM+SAC In this section we derive a convex quadratic program (CQP) for the relaxed problem for (5). The problem (5) is not convex even if the constraint Sitk ? {0, 1} is relaxed, because log P (S|Y ) is not convex. By adding an additional set of variables, we obtain a convex problem. it Similar to [12], we define a new Ki ? Ki variable matrix H it = (hit jk ) such that hjk = 1 when it Si,t?1,k = 1 and Sitj = 1, and otherwise hjk = 0. In order to present a CQP problem, we define the following notation. Denote 1T as a column vector of size T ? 1 with all the elements being 1. Denote ??i = 1T ? ?i with size T Ki ? 1, where ? is Kronecker product, then ?i = ?i ??i ??T i and ??i = 2?i ?i0 ??i . Denote eT as a T ? 1 vector with the first element being 1 and all the others being ? zero. Denote ??i = eT ? log ?i with size T Ki ? 1. We represent ? ? = (?T1 , ?T2 , ? ? ? , ?TI )T with size P ? ? ? ? ? ?2 ?2 ? T T T T and ut = ?t Yt ?P. We also denote Si = (Si1 , ? ? ? , SiT ) i Ki ? 1, and denote Vt = ?t ? ? T T it it T with size T Ki ? 1 and St = (S1t , ? ? ? , SIt ) with size i Ki ? 1. Denote H.l and Hl. as the column and row vectors of the matrix H it , respectively. The objective function in equation (5) can then be equivalently represented as L(S, H) = I X SiT ??i + i=1 = X i,t,k,j X (i) hit jk log pjk ? i,t,k,j (i) hit jk log pjk ? I ? X i=1 T ? I ? ? ? 1X X StT Vt St ? 2uTt St + C SiT ?i Si ? SiT ??i ? 2 t=1 i=1 T ? ? 1X ? SiT ?i Si ? SiT (??i + ??i ) ? StT Vt St ? 2uTt St + C 2 t=1 4 where C is constant. Our aim is to optimize the problem maximize L(S, H) S,H subject to Ki X Sitk = 1, Sitk ? {0, 1}, i = 1, 2, ? ? ? , I; t = 1, 2, ? ? ? , T, k=1 Ki X T Hl.it = Si,t?1 , l=1 Ki X (6) H.lit = Sit , hit jk ? {0, 1}. l=1 This problem is equavalent to the problem in equation (5). It should be noted that the matrices ?i and Vt are positive semidefinite (PSD). Therefore, the problem is an integer quadratic program (IQP) which is hard to solve. Instead we solve the relaxed problem where Sitk ? [0, 1] and hit jk ? [0, 1]. The problem is thus a CQP. To solve this problem we used CVX, a package for specifying and solving convex programs [7, 6]. Note that a relaxed problem for AFHMM could also be obtained by setting ?i = 0, which is also a CQP. Concerning the computational complexity, the CQP for AFHMM+SAC has polynomial time in the number of time steps times the total number of states of the HMMs. In practice, our implementations of AFHMM, AFAMAP, and AFHMM+SAC scale similarly (see Section 7.2). 6 Relation to Posterior Regularization In this section we show that the objective function in (5) can also be derived from the posterior regularization framework [4]. The posterior regularization framework guides the model to approach desired behavior by constraining the space of the model posteriors. The distribution defined in e (3) is the model posterior distribution for the AFHMM. n However, the desired o distribution P we are interested in is defined in the constrained space Pe|EPe (?i (S, Y )) ? ?i where ?i (S, Y ) = P 2 T T . To ensure Pe is a valid distribution, it is required to optimize t=1 ?i Sit ? ?i0 minimize KL(Pe(S)|P (S|Y )) e P (7) subject to EPe (?i (S, Y )) ? ?i , i = 1, 2, ? ? ? , I, where KL(?|?) denotes the KL-divergence. According optimal solution for the den P to [4], the unique o I 1 ? e ?i ?i (S, Y ) . This is exactly the distribution sired distribution is P (S) = P (S|Y ) exp ? i=1 Z in equation (5). 7 Results In this section, the AFHMM+SAC is evaluated by applying it to the disaggregation problems of a toy data set and energy data, and comparing with AFHMM and AFAMAP performance. 7.1 Toy Data In this section the AFHMM+SAC was applied to a toy data set to evaluate the robustness of the method. Two chains were generated with state values ?1 = (0, 24, 280)T and ?2 = (0, 300, 500)T . The initial and transition probabilities were randomly generated. Suppose the generated chains were xi = xi1 , xi2 , ? ? ? , xiT (i = 1, 2), with T = 100. The aggregated data were generated by the equation Yt = x1t + x2t + t where t follows a Gaussian distribution with zero mean and variance ? 2 = 0.01. The AFHMM+SAC was applied to this data to disaggregate Y into component signals. Note that we simply set ?i = 1 for all the experiments including the energy data, though in practice these hyper-parameters could be tuned using cross validation. Denote x ?i as the estimated signal for xi . The disaggregation performance was evaluated by the normalized disaggregation error (NDE) P xit ? xit )2 i,t (? P . (8) N DE = 2 i,t xit 5 For the energy data we are also particularly interested in recovering the total energy used by each appliance [16, 10]. Therefore, another objective of the disaggregation is to estimate the total energy consumed by each appliance over a period of time. To measure this, we employ the following signal aggregate error (SAE) PT PT I ?it ? t0 =1 xit0 | 1 X | t=1 x SAE = . (9) PT I i=1 t=1 Yt In order to assess how the SAC regularizer affects the results, various values for ?0 = (?10 , ?20 )T were used for the AFHMM+SAC algorithm. Figure 1 shows the NDE and SAE results. It shows that as the Euclidean distance between the input vector ?0 and the true signal aggregate vector  PT PT t=1 x1t , t=1 x2t increases, both the NDE and SAE increase. This shows how the SACs affect the performance of AFHMM+SAC. 0.8 Normalized Disaggregation Error Signal Aggregate Error Error 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 3 4 10 10 Distance Figure 1: Normalized disaggregation error and signal aggregate error computed by AFHMM+SAC using various input vectors ?i0 . The x-axis shows the Euclidean distance between the input vector P T PT T (?10 , ?20 )T and the true signal aggregate vector x , x . t=1 1t t=1 2t 7.2 Energy Disaggregation In this section, the AFHMM, AFAMAP, and AFHMM+SAC were applied to electrical energy disaggregation problems. We use the Household Electricity Survey (HES) data. HES was a recent study commissioned by the UK Department of Food and Rural Affairs, which monitored a total of 251 owner-occupied households across England from May 2010 to July 2011 [23]. The study monitored 26 households for an entire year, while the remaining 225 were monitored for one month during the year with periods selected to be representative of the different seasons. Individual appliances as well as the overall electricity consumption were monitored. The households were carefully selected to be representative of the overall population. The data were recorded every 2 or 10 minutes, depending on the household. This ultra-low frequency data presents a challenge for disaggregation techniques; typically studies rely on much higher data rates, e.g., the REDD data [12]. Both the data measured without and with a mains reading were used to compare those models. The model parameters ? defined in AFHMM, AFAMAP and AFHMM+SAC for every appliance were estimated by using 15-30 days? data for each household. We simply assume 3 states for all the appliances, though we could assume more states which requires more computational costs. The ?i was estimated by using k-means clustering on each appliance?s signals in the training data. 7.2.1 Energy Data without Mains Readings In the first experiment, we generated the aggregate data by adding up the appliance signals, since no mains reading had been measured for most of the households. One-hundred households were studied, and one day?s usage was used as test data for each household. The model parameters were 6 Table 1: Normalized disaggregation error (NDE), signal aggregate error (SAE), and computing time obtained by AFHMM, AFAMAP, and AFHMM+SAC on the energy data for 100 houses without mains. Shown are the mean?std values over days. NTC: National total consumption which was the average consumption of each appliance over the training days; TTC: True total consumption for each appliance for that day and household in the test data. M ETHODS AFHMM AFAMAP [12] AFHMM+SAC (NTC) AFHMM+SAC (TTC) NDE 0.98? 0.68 0.96? 0.42 0.64? 0.37 0.36? 0.28 SAE 0.144? 0.067 0.083? 0.004 0.069? 0.004 0.0015? 0.0089 T IME ( SECOND ) 206?114 325?177 356?262 260?108 estimated by using 15-26 days? data as the training data. In future work, it would be straightforward to incorporate the SAC into unsupervised disaggregation approaches [11], by using prior information such as national surveys to estimate ?0 . The AFHMM, AFAMAP and AFHMM+SAC were applied to the aggregated signal to recover the component appliances. For the AFHMM+SAC, two kinds of total consumption vectors were used as the vector ?0 . The first, the national total consumption (NTC), was the average consumption of each appliance over the training days across all households in the data set. The second, for comparison, was the true total consumption (TTC) for each appliance for that day and household. Obviously, TTC is the optimal value for the regularizer in AFHMM+SAC, so this gives us an oracle result which indicates the largest possible benefit from including this kind of SAC. Table 1 shows the NDE and SAE when the three methods were applied to one day?s data for 100 households. We see that AFHMM+SAC outperformed the AFHMM in terms of both NDE and SAE. The AFAMAP outperformed the AFHMM in terms of SAE, and otherwise they performed similar in terms of NDE. Unsurprisingly, the AFHMM+SAC using TTC performs the best among these methods. This shows the difference the constraints made, even though we would never be able to obtain the TTC in reality. By looking at the mean values in the Table 1, we also conclude that AFHMM+SAC using NTC had improved 33% and 16% over state-of-the-art AFAMAP in terms of NDE and SAE, respectively. This was also verified by computing the paired t-test to show that the mean NDE and SAE obtained by AFHMM+SAC and AFAMAP were different at the 5% significance level. To demonstrate the computational efficiency, the computing time is also shown in the Table 1. It indicates that AFHMM, AFAMAP and AFHMM+SAC consumed similar time for inference. 7.2.2 Energy Data with Mains Readings We studied 9 houses in which the mains as well as the appliances were measured. In this experiment we applied the models directly to the measured mains signal. This scenario is more difficult than that of the previous section, because the mains power will also include the demand of some appliances which are not included in the training data, but it is also the most realistic. The summary of the 9 houses is shown in Table 2. The training data were used to estimate the model parameters. The number of appliances corresponds to the number of the HMMs in the model. The mains measured in the test days are inputted into the models to recover the consumption of those appliances. We computed the NTC by using the training data for the AFHMM+SAC. The NDE and SAE were computed for every house and each method. The results are shown in Figure 2. For each house we also computed the paired t-test for the NDE and SAE computed by AFAMAP and AFHMM+SAC(NTC), which shows that the mean errors are different at the 5% significance level. This indicates that across all the houses AFHMM+SAC has improved over AFAMAP. The overall results for all the test days are shown in Table 3, which shows that AFHMM+SAC has improved over both AFHMM and AFAMAP. In terms of computing time, however, AFHMM+SAC is similar to AFHMM and AFAMAP. It should be noted that, by looking at Tables 1 and 3, all the three methods require more time for the data with mains than those without mains. This is because the algorithms take more time to converge for realistic data. These results indicate the value of signal aggregate constraints for this problem. 7 Table 2: Summary of the 9 houses with mains H OUSE N UMBERS OF T RAINING DAYS N UMBERS OF T EST DAYS N UMBERS OF A PPLIANCES 1 17 9 21 2 16 9 25 3 15 10 24 4 29 8 15 5 27 9 24 6 28 9 22 7 27 9 23 8 15 10 20 9 30 10 25 Table 3: The normalized disaggregation error (NDE), signal aggregate error (SAE), and computing time obtained by AFHMM, AFAMAP, and AFHMM+SAC using mains as the input. Shown are the mean?std values computed from all the test days of the 9 houses. NTC: National total consumption which was the average consumption of each appliance over the training days; TTC: True total consumption for each appliance for that day and household in the test data. M ETHODS AFHMM AFAMAP [12] AFHMM+SAC (NTC) AFHMM+SAC (TTC) NDE 1.36? 0.75 1.05? 0.29 0.74? 0.34 0.57? 0.28 SAE 0.069? 0.039 0.043? 0.012 0.030? 0.014 0.001? 0.0048 Normalized Disaggregation Error 3.5 Signal Aggregate Error AFHMM AFAMAP AFHMM+SAC(NTC) AFHMM+SAC(TTC) 3 T IME ( SECOND ) 1008?269 1327?453 1101?342 1276?410 AFHMM AFAMAP AFHMM+SAC(NTC) AFHMM+SAC(TTC) 0.1 0.08 Error Error 2.5 2 1.5 0.06 0.04 1 0.02 0.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 House 7 8 0 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 House 7 8 9 Figure 2: Mean and std plots for NDE and SAE computed by AFHMM, AFAMAP and AFHMM+SAC using mains as the input for 9 houses. 8 Conclusions In this paper, we have proposed an additive factorial HMM with signal aggregate constraints. The regularizer was derived from a prior distribution over the chain states. We also showed that the objective function can be derived in the framework of posterior regularization. We focused on finding the MAP configuration for the posterior distribution with the constraints. Since dynamic programming is not directly applicable, we pose the optimization problem as a convex quadratic program and solve the relaxed problem. On simulated data, we showed that the AFHMM+SAC is robust to errors in specification of the constraint value. On real world data from the energy disaggregation problem, we showed that the AFHMM+SAC performed better both than a simple AFHMM and than previously published research. Acknowledgments This work is supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (grant number EP/K002732/1). 8 References [1] H.M.S. Asif and G. Sanguinetti. Large-scale learning of combinatorial transcriptional dynamics from gene expression. Bioinformatics, 27(9):1277?1283, 2011. [2] F. Bach and M. I. Jordan. Blind one-microphone speech separation: A spectral learning approach. In Neural Information Processing Systems, pages 65?72, 2005. [3] P. Comon and C. Jutten, editors. 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