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Nackaerts offered no details on the substance of his talks. But diplomats familiar with the negotiations have said previously that the agreement was stalled because the IAEA wanted repeated access to sites, officials or documents of interest. Instead, Tehran demanded that once such access was granted, the person, document or site be off limits to the IAEA for repeated visits, questioning of viewing. |
Amano's announcement of a nearly done deal in May came just days before the two sides met in Baghdad for a new round of negotiations meant to defuse tensions over Iran's nuclear program before leaving the negotiating table with little progress made. |
This time, Nackaerts spoke of movement on the probe as Iran and six world powers again prepare to meet. The six nations hope the talks will result in an agreement by the Islamic Republic to stop enriching uranium to a higher level that could be turned relatively quickly into the fissile core of nuclear arms. |
Iran denies such aspirations insisting it is enriching only to make reactor fuel and to make isotopes for medical purposes. |
By compromising on the IAEA probe, Iran could argue that the onus was now on the six powers to show some flexibility, temper their demands, and roll back U.S. and European sanctions that have hit Iran's critical oil exports and blacklisted the country from international banking networks. |
The IAEA has already visited Parchin twice -- the last time in 2005. But it did not have access then to satellite imagery then and visited buildings other than the one now pinpointed by the aerial photos. |
Happy Sunday. FRONT PAGE EDITORIAL -- BIRMINGHAM NEWS, HUNTSVILLE TIMES, PRESS-REGISTER (MOBILE) -- “STAND FOR DECENCY, REJECT ROY MOORE”: “This election is a turning point for women in Alabama. A chance to make their voices heard in a state that has silenced them for too long. |
“During the phone call on Wednesday afternoon, Mr. Ryan, who had campaigned heavily for Mr. Johnson in 2016, posed an essential question, according to the senator: ‘What are you going to need?’ What Mr. Johnson needs … is for the bill to treat more favorably small businesses and other so-called pass-through entities -- businesses whose profits are distributed to their owners and taxed at rates for individuals. Such entities, including Mr. Johnson’s family-run plastics manufacturing business, account for more than half of the nation’s business income, and the senator says the tax bill would give an unfair advantage to larger corporations. |
-- IT’S WORTH NOTING: This is hardly the first time Johnson has clashed with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and his GOP leadership team. He also fought with them over how the Obamacare repeal process played out. He is just the first Senate Republican out of the gate opposing the bill. Just because the House GOP tax overhaul was on the fast track and didn’t face many hiccups, don’t expect the same to be true in the Senate. |
FOR EXAMPLE… JAKE TAPPER talks with SEN. SUSAN COLLINS (R-MAINE) on CNN’S “STATE OF THE UNION: TAPPER: “You said this week that Republicans made a big mistake when they changed the tax bill to include this repeal of the Affordable Care Act individual mandate because that -- removing that could raise taxes or payment -- health care payments, premiums, for millions of Americans. If that provision stays in the tax bill, will that mean a ‘no’ vote from you?” COLLINS: “Well, first of all, I think we need to distinguish between taking away insurance from people who already have it, which is what the health care bill said we considered earlier this year would have done, versus removing a fine on people who choose not to have insurance. And that’s … disproportionately 80 percent on those who make under $50,000. |
MORE TAX DRAMA IN THE STATES -- “In Democrat-led state capitals, GOP tax reform push could scramble fiscal plans,” by Laura Nahmias in New York, Katherine Landergan in New Jersey and Carla Marinucci in California: “The Republican tax reform push in Washington is setting off budgetary alarm bells in high-tax states like New York, California and New Jersey, in the latest political skirmish to pit national Republicans against Democratic state and big city leaders. |
“With Republicans intent on shrinking or repealing the state and local tax deduction, California officials are worried that the House-passed tax bill, and the emerging Senate measure, will force local governments to reduce taxes and make big cuts to schools and social services. In New York, where New York City and state revenues are heavily reliant on just a handful of wealthy tax filers, budget watchdogs fear federal tax changes could trigger the flight of those residents. And in New Jersey, plans for a new millionaire’s tax, one of incoming Gov. Phil Murphy’s biggest campaign promises, are already being reined in as the Democratic-led New Jersey Senate waits on the outcome of any federal tax plan. |
TROUBLE FOR FRANKEN -- A1 of the STAR TRIBUNE -- “Sidelined by scandal, Sen. Al Franken faces questions about ability to do his job,” by Jennifer Brooks and Erin Golden: “Suddenly a senator whose statewide approval rating stood at 58 percent in the last Star Tribune Minnesota Poll is facing calls to resign — even from prominent Minnesota DFLers and deeply disappointed supporters. |
-- TOO CLOSE TO THE SUN?: STAR LEDGER FRONT PAGE: “Why this N.J. Republican keeps voting for things that could hurt Jersey” (print headline: “MacArthur is showing affinity for risk-taking: Representative’s tax stance could hurt N.J., his future”): “In just his third term in office, Rep. Tom MacArthur is helping to shape legislation in a way lawmakers who've been here a long time can only dream of. |
BUT, BUT, BUT -- EMILY HOLDEN in Bonn, Germany: “The White House goaded activists at the international climate talks by pushing coal and other fossil fuels. But behind closed doors, U.S. negotiators stuck to their Obama-era principles on the 2015 Paris deal — despite President Donald Trump’s disavowal of the pact. State Department negotiators at the U.N. conference that ended Saturday hewed to the United States’ long-established positions on the details of how to carry out the Paris agreement. And that's the U.S. role that most foreign political leaders sought to highlight, despite the low expectations inspired by Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda and his dismissal of human-caused climate change as a hoax. |
-- TONIGHT ON “KASIE D.C.”: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), former Alabama Gov. Don Siegelman, Katty Kay, Ashley Parker, Jonathan Swan, Leigh Ann Caldwell, Ken Dilanian, Paul Kane, Paul Singer, Gen. Barry McCaffrey and Azmat Khan. |
GREAT STORY -- SCOTT BROWN IN NEW ZEALAND -- “Scott Brown’s pay is $155,000 per year. The benefits are priceless,” by the Boston Globe’s Joshua Miller in Wellington, New Zealand: “Of the waves that followed from Donald Trump’s 2016 tsunami, Brown’s ascension from the everyman-with-a-pickup who lost two U.S. Senate races in two years in two states to US ambassador to New Zealand ranks among the most unlikely. And, for him, the most fortunate. |
“The island nation is a paradisiacal land of jade hills dotted with grazing sheep, golden-sand beaches surrounded by Jurassic Park-like jungles, snow-capped peaks that rise steeply from azure fjords, and pastoral villages serving gourmet meals and world-class wine. |
2020 WATCH -- “Don’t trust politicians to solve our problems, U.S. Sen. Ben Sasse tells Iowa crowd,” by the Des Moines Register’s Jason Noble: “Don’t look to politics to solve the pressing problems in American culture or address looming technological and economic changes that will rearrange American society, U.S. Sen. Ben Sasse told an Iowa audience Saturday. Politicians, he said, simply aren’t up to the task. |
SPOTTED: Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) at the Elton John concert in Bangor, Maine, last night. “She seemed to particularly enjoy his rendition of ‘Daniel,’” per our tipster. |
--SPOTTED: Wolf Blitzer and Dana Bash cutting the challah, Spencer Garrett, David Chalian, Alex Moe and Derek Flowers, Joy Lin, Juana Summers, John Legittino, Lauren Pratapas, Polson Kanneth and Sandhya Kotha, Ben Kochman, Rob Yoon, Katie Hinman, Sean and Ashley Kennedy. |
OUT AND ABOUT -- SPOTTED at the So Others Might Eat Gala Saturday night at the National Building Museum: Tom Donohue, Suzanne Clark, Bill Conway, Jack Gerard, Matthew Say, Jim McCarthy, Wayne Berman and the winners of this year’s Humanitarians of the Year award, Jane and Steve Caldeira of the Consumer Specialty Products Association. |
-- SPOTTED at the “Wonder Woman”-themed birthday party for BBC’s Suzanne Kianpour at Lapis Saturday night: Andrew Rafferty, Neil Grace, Molly Weaver, Walt Cronkite Jr., Lauren French, Paul Kane, Lauren Culbertson, Anastasia Dellaccio, Nikki Schwab, Brendan Kownacki, Sophie Pyle, Chris Brown, Lindsay Walters, Sean Weppner and Richard Strauss. |
-- Bert Gomez threw a party celebrating wife Susie Santana’s birthday Saturday night on the W hotel rooftop where guests salsa danced till midnight and were treated to cupcakes and the “Susie Q” specialty cocktail, according to a tipster. SPOTTED: Estuardo Rodriguez, Lyndon Boozer, Maria Cardona, Angela Arboleda, Laurie Saroff, Cristina Antelo and Miguel Franco. |
... Brad Bauman … Jason Dumont … John Axelrod, MSNBC alum now at BerlinRosen, is 26 ... Lauren McCulloch of “Meet the Press” ... Obama DOJ alum Dena Iverson DeBonis … Chris Harlow ... Eric Finkbeiner ... Mike Deutsch, FAA attorney … Matt Allen ... Beth Mickelberg … Lynne Walton ... Patrick K. O’Donnell ... Andrew Sollinger, EVP of subscriptions at Business Insider... Cait Graf, VP of comms at The Nation ... Ivan Levingston ... Alexander Heffner is 28 ... Ellen Silva of NPR ... Shelley Hearne (h/ts Jon Haber) … Charlie Siguler ... Geoff Sokolowski ... Neil Bjorkman, VP of legislative affairs at the U.S.-India Strategic Partnership Forum … Hannah McLeod … Michael Reynold … Amber Manko … Bush 43 W.H. alum Ivvete Diaz ... Bush 43 HHS alum Mary Kay Mantho, now director at GSK ... Ivette Diaz ... Shannon Vilmain ... Barb Leach ... Julie Cassidy … David O’Boyle ... Ricky Wilson. |
Under intense pressure to improve conditions in the jail complex on Rikers Island, the administration of Mayor Bill de Blasio has developed a plan to move 16- and 17-year-olds to a dedicated jail for youths in the Bronx. |
The cost to carry out the plan is expected to be about $300 million, officials said. |
The plan calls for the city to reconfigure the Horizon Juvenile Center, which is currently used to hold 14- and 15-year olds, to house the 16- and 17-year olds who are typically sent to Rikers. |
A 2015 settlement with the Department of Justice on reform at Rikers called on the city to seek an alternative location to house inmates under 18, although it stopped short of requiring it. |
New York is the only state other than North Carolina that prosecutes all children 16 and older as adults if they are accused of a crime. In New York City, they are likely to wind up at Rikers, a notoriously brutal lockup. There are currently about 200 inmates who are 16 or 17 at Rikers, down from about 330 in 2013. |
The city and many advocates have urged state lawmakers to pass a law that would treat those under the age of 18 as juveniles, but the proposal has gone nowhere in Albany. |
The new plan to move 16- and 17-year-olds from Rikers must overcome several hurdles. It has to be approved through the city’s time-consuming land use process: The local community board and the Bronx borough president get to weigh in and it must be approved by the City Planning Commission and the City Council. |
But the change will not happen any time soon; officials said it could take four years or more to get approvals and to complete construction. The plan also calls for the city to remodel another juvenile detention site, the Crossroads Juvenile Center in Bushwick, Brooklyn, to hold all of the city’s 14- and 15-year-old detainees, including those who had previously gone to Horizon. |
The cost of refurbishing the Bronx center is budgeted at $170 million. The cost of remodeling the Brooklyn center is budgeted at $129 million. |
Advocates supported the move but lamented the long delay before the new center will be ready, assuming that it survives the land-use review process. |
“For us this is a marathon, not a sprint.” he said. |
More than 95 percent of the 16- and 17-year-olds at Rikers are awaiting trial. More than a third have been charged with robbery and about one in 10 have been charged with assault, according to data provided by the city. |
Increased attention was focused on the plight of younger teenagers at Rikers in 2014 after The New Yorker published an article about Kalief Browder, who was sent there at 16, accused of stealing a backpack. He never stood trial or was found guilty of any crime but he spent three years at Rikers, nearly two of them in solitary confinement. He told of being beaten repeatedly by guards and other inmates and trying several times to kill himself while in custody. After his release he remained deeply troubled by the experience and he committed suicide last year at age 22. |
The city ended solitary confinement for Rikers inmates under 18 in December 2014. |
Unprecedented back-to-back annual coral bleaching events have affected two-thirds of the Great Barrier Reef, with this year's event already leading to mortality of half the corals in some key tourist tracts, scientists say. |
Record-breaking warm waters along the Queensland coast has triggered widespread bleaching over 1500 kilometres of the World-Heritage-listed reef over the two summers, said Terry Hughes, director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies. |
Professor Hughes and his team completed aerial surveys last Wednesday after scoring about 800 separate reefs. The 8000km journey closely followed the path of the 2016 survey that found the northern regions of the Great Barrier Reef most affected. |
"It's been a huge blow to the reef after last year the northern third was hit and now this year's it's the middle third," Professor Hughes said. |
Corals bleach when temperatures exceed tolerance levels for too long, prompting them to expel the algae that supply most of their energy and the brilliant colours. Not all bleached corals die but as much as two-thirds of north corals have succumbed. |
"The mortality in the central region will continue to unfold over coming months," Professor Hughes said. "We've already seen substantial mortality, up to 50 per cent on some central reefs in the past six weeks." |
Bleaching has returned even to some of the regions hard hit last year, such as Cape York's Princess Charlotte Bay. |
Some 30 reefs in the north had no score as they "effectively have ceased to exist at least in the shallow sections as coral reefs", said James Kerry, a marine biologist from James Cook University who also took part in the survey. |
While this year's event is not expected to result in as much coral mortality as in 2016, there are worrying signs corals bleached at lower temperatures than a year earlier. That result may point to more bleaching next summer if conditions are again relatively warm. |
"It seemed like the bleaching happened more quickly this year, which may suggest they are in a weakened, more stressed state following last year's event," Dr Kerry said. |
Mark Read, manager of operations support at the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, said "2017 has shaped up to be a pretty nasty year when it comes to coral bleaching". |
"The corals didn't get any respite at all," Dr Read said. |
Bleaching, though, was patchy. The authority was already in talks with tour operators to redirect visitors to "refugia" where they can still enjoy "a high-quality experience", he said. |
Such areas are likely to be harder to find in the Whitsunday region near Mackay where Cyclone Debbie carved a swathe about 100km wide through the reefs. |
"The one area that was actually doing pretty good was the one that bore the brunt of the category 4 cyclone," Dr Read said. "A lot of those massive corals are now lying on the beach in those locations. They've simply been snapped and rolled up onto the beach." |
Temperatures are showing signs of easing back to more typical levels for this time of year, such as the Davies Reef off Townsville. |
But the area had been remarkably warm even in a non-El Nino year, such as during the previous 2015-16 summer. |
In March, for instance, large areas of Queensland reported their hottest mean temperatures on record. These included the coastal region of the state's north adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef. |
Professor Hughes said some corals may regain their colour in the next three to six months, but it would take longer to see if they recovered their reproductive health and began a fuller recovery. |
The faster growing branch corals and some other rapidly growing "weedy" species of corals could rebuild the reefs but the process would take years or even a decade. The loss of boulder corals would take much longer to recover from the bleaching. |
Rising temperatures from global warming means the corals are likely to enjoy ever shorter stints between mass bleaching events, the scientists said. |
"It's highly unlikely we'll have a period of calm for 10 or 20 years that will allow these reefs to re-establish to the point that they might be recognisable as they were," Dr Kerry said. |
Dr Kerry said he was surprised the severity of the bleaching had not provoked more of a public response: "I don't really know what else the reef needs to do to signify that it's in serious trouble." |
Editor’s Note: A few weeks ago, we ran a provocative piece by Stephen Watts and Sean Mann in which they argued that in both its politics and in its development, Afghanistan is doing better than is commonly believed. Gary Owen, a civilian development worker who has spent the last several years working on the ground in Afghanistan, begs to differ. He paints a far gloomier picture of Afghanistan, arguing that the country and U.S. policy have a long way to go. |
Many Americans are surprisingly bullish on Afghanistan, and this perspective showed up in a July Lawfare post on “Afghanistan After the Drawdown” by RAND analysts Stephen Watts and Sean Mann. Although the two authors offer some valid points, they miss many of the country’s problems and, in so doing, are wrongly optimistic about where Afghanistan is going. |
After a decade and more of U.S. intervention, it can be difficult to pin down how things are going in Afghanistan. By some measures, things in Afghanistan are better: There are more children in school than there were under the Taliban, more Afghans have access to basic healthcare than before the 2001 invasion, and Internet access means more connections to the outside world than was ever possible during the time of the black turbans. Watts and Mann cite those cases as reasons to be optimistic about the country, and rightly so. Where they go wrong is in three key areas: relations with Pakistan, the current government as a symbol of Afghan unity, and the abilities of Afghan security forces. |
Pakistan’s got plenty to worry about when it comes to sanctuaries within its own borders, a grim point made by last year’s school shooting in Peshawar. And recent revelations that Mullah Omar died in Pakistan, and his whereabouts were known to the ISI for years, don’t paint a picture of Afghanistan being used as a base to launch operations against Pakistan. Instead it speaks to Pakistan’s harboring of the Taliban with the government’s knowledge, something Islamabad is scrambling to correct as they look ahead to peace talks with the Taliban. |
Or it’s just a case of Afghanistan following the American lead. |
In the fall of 2014, after another runoff election threatened to bring the country’s democratic future to a grinding halt, Secretary of State John Kerry addressed a group made up of Abdullah’s leadership team. According to an administration official, Kerry told the group, “I have to emphasize to you that if you do not have an agreement, if you do not move to a unity government, the United States will not be able to support Afghanistan.” Aimed squarely at those who supported Abdullah to the point that they might take up arms in his name, Kerry’s statement was an offer neither Ghani nor Abdullah could possibly refuse. The current government isn’t a triumph of consensus so much as it is a case study in diplomatic extortion, and its survival is doubtful if the Americans stick with the current timeline for complete withdrawal by the end of 2016. |
The current government isn’t a triumph of consensus so much as it is a case study in diplomatic extortion, and its survival is doubtful if the Americans stick with the current timeline for complete withdrawal by the end of 2016. |
Thanks to advances by the Taliban in Faryab and Kunduz, influential politicians like Rashid Dostum (currently Ghani’s vice president) and Atta Noor (the powerful governor of Balkh province) have been pretty vocal in their thinking that Afghan forces alone can’t get the job done; that to tip the balance means more troops from somewhere—either the Americans (not out of the question completely, but unlikely), or some kind of militia. Since today’s anti-Taliban militia could be tomorrow’s coup attempt, it lays some troubling groundwork for widening existing divides in the country that the United States had hoped the Ghani/Abdullah deal would help bridge. Unless they can manage to bring the security situation that’s deteriorating faster than Iggy Azalea’s career back under control, Afghan troops could have some new bosses very soon. Their current performance doesn’t inspire much hope. |
Actually, it’s pretty clear how those forces will perform. In a word? Badly. |
Since the Afghans assumed control of the country’s security in 2014, more civilians have been killed, more soldiers have died, more Afghan troops have deserted than ever before, and security forces are still torturing one-third of their detainees. This is the force Watts and Mann describe as “passably capable” and “resilient.” If by “passably capable” they mean “doesn’t torture too many people,” then sure, I suppose they are “passably capable,” but I think we might want to aim just a bit higher. |
According to the Americans, civilian casualties as a result of ground engagements between the Afghans and insurgents were up eight percent for the first three months of 2015 when compared to the same period in 2014. In June, Afghan Chief of Army Staff Gen. Qadam Shah Shaheem told his troops that using artillery and conducting night raids against the insurgents was just fine, and no one would be prosecuted as a result. Since most engagements occur among the population when one is countering an insurgency, this change in the rules of engagement means more innocent civilians are going to die as the result of actions by Afghan security forces. That’s borne out by the latest report on civilian casualties from UNAMA, which found that throughout the first half of 2015, Afghan forces caused more civilian casualties than the Taliban did. |
And when they’re not busy leveling villages, Afghan forces are dying in record numbers. Throughout the first five months of 2015, security forces casualties were up 70 percent from the same period in 2014. Some of that’s attributable to increasing activity by the insurgents, but a “capable” force doesn’t see that kind of casualty increase unless its capabilities are less than optimal. Even so, the biggest cause of attrition for Afghan troops isn’t being killed in action (KIA). According to a June report by the Americans to Congress, the largest source for attrition is “dropped from rolls” (wherein a soldier stops showing up for work for more than a month so he’s no longer counted), and KIA is the smallest source for Afghan force attrition. |
But when they do manage to not die and to show up for work, Afghan forces like to spend some quality time with their detainees. A February report by the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) found that while torture is on the decrease, around 35 percent of all detainees surveyed reported being tortured in detention. Much of that alleged torture was at the hands of the National Directorate of Security (NDS), which is similar to the FBI, except that the FBI has better windbreakers and isn’t prone to hooking people up to car batteries unnecessarily. That probably explains why the Americans made it clear in June that no U.S. funds were going to the NDS, even though nearly every other aspect of Afghan defense operations comes directly from American coffers and internal defense is vital for the success of the counterinsurgency. |
In an alternate-reality Afghanistan, civilians aren’t dying in greater numbers, the government isn’t on the verge of collapse, and the return on foreign investment is staggering. The Afghans would love it—because that’s the country the Americans promised them. |
An American solution to Afghanistan’s problems faces the struggles of a dwindling security force to keep the Taliban at bay as they strike from sanctuaries in Pakistan, a government on the verge of collapse, and large numbers of civilians being victimized by their own government. And that’s without the growing threat of the Islamic State. In an alternate-reality Afghanistan, civilians aren’t dying in greater numbers, the government isn’t on the verge of collapse, and the return on foreign investment is staggering. The Afghans would love it—because that’s the country the Americans promised them. |
The reality is that that Afghanistan’s future, while grim, is still better than it was. There is cause for cautious optimism. That does not mean that we shouldn’t be painfully honest about what’s happening in Afghanistan. Given the sacrifices made since 9/11, it’s tempting to do otherwise. But doing so means ignoring challenges the country faces, and the decisions about its future the Americans still need to make. |
Wydad Casablanca of Morocco will begin the defence of their African Champions League title against either Mali's Stade Malien or newcomers Williamsville AC of Ivory Coast. |
As the reigning champions, Wydad are one of five teams to be given a bye into the second round of the tournament, which begins in March. |
Beaten finalists in 2017 Al Ahly of Egypt and DR Congo's Confederation Cup winners TP Mazembe are also straight into the second round. |
The other teams to skip the first round are the 2016 African champions Mamelodi Sundowns from South Africa and Tunisia's Etoile du Sahel, who lifted the trophy in 2007. |
The 16 winners of the second round ties will advance to the group stage of the tournament. |
For the first time ever Zambia had two teams in the draw with Zanaco, who reached the group stage in 2017 drawn to play Gambia Armed Forces, while Zesco United will play Zanzibar's JKU SC. |
A change in the calendar for the Confederation of African Football means that the next Champions Leagues will begin in December 2018 and run through to May 2019. |
After the 2019 final the competition will be held from August or September through to May of the next year. |
WASHINGTON -- With television lights glaring, 20 lawmakers will gather next week to revisit the fight that consumed Congress before Christmas over renewing a Social Security payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits. |
Little real work will be done, but the meeting will mark the formal start of an effort to untangle a dispute that both parties want to resolve, though for different reasons. Following is a look at the path Round 2 could take, based on interviews with participants on both sides. |
Q: Can you remind me what's at stake? |
A: After a bitter clash and just a week before a New Year's Day deadline, President Barack Obama and Congress renewed a 2 percentage point payroll tax cut for 160 million workers and benefits for the long-term unemployed through February. They also temporarily forestalled a deep cut in doctors' Medicare fees that threatened to make it harder for the elderly to find physicians who would treat them. Now, the two sides need to figure out how to extend all three measures through 2012 and cover the roughly $160 billion cost. |
Q: Are they expected to succeed? |
A: Yes, though it will probably take until shortly before the current extensions expire Feb. 29. There are complicated decisions ahead, chiefly what programs to cut and what fees to increase to offset the price tag. Just as important, Democrats won't be in a hurry to finish. |
A: Republicans took a severe pounding in December when the House GOP resisted a bipartisan, Senate-approved, two-month extension of the payroll tax cut, which was designed to give lawmakers time to negotiate a longer version. With control of the White House and Congress at stake in the November elections, many Democrats think the GOP could incur further damage if these latest talks take time. |
Many Republicans doubt the economic benefit of a payroll tax cut, a foundation of Obama's plan to create jobs. But as December's battle unfolded, GOP leaders worried that they would suffer political damage from opposing the deeply popular tax cut, worth $1,000 annually to a family earning $50,000 a year. |
With the House's fractious conservative wing balking until the very end, the fight made the GOP look like it was opposing the tax reduction -- which Democrats contrasted with Republican support for tax breaks for the wealthy. Most Republicans want this year's fight to end quickly so they can change the subject to their own efforts to cut taxes, federal spending and Obama administration regulations. |
Q: How long can Democrats prolong the negotiations? |
A: If they're not careful they could overplay their hand. |
Democrats scored points last year by forcing Senate votes on their proposal to finance the payroll tax cut with a small surtax on people earning $1 million or more a year. They have a new incentive to do something similar this year with the GOP presidential front-runner Mitt Romney, a wealthy venture capitalist, being cast by party rivals as callous and out of touch. |
As a result, many Democrats want to begin this year's talks on extending the Social Security tax cut by targeting the wealthy for a tax increase, perhaps with the millionaire surtax or by limiting their deductions. The millionaire surtax has no chance of passage in the GOP-run House, and Democrats could be accused of blatantly playing politics. Democrats and Obama have a reason to cut a deal: They believe extending the payroll tax cut and jobless benefits will goose the economy and reduce the risk of another economic downturn that could hurt their election prospects. |
Q; What will the 20 members of Congress do? |
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