Daily Papers

In this work, we introduce Brain Latent Progression (BrLP), a novel spatiotemporal disease progression model based on latent diffusion. BrLP is designed to predict the evolution of diseases at the individual level on 3D brain MRIs. Existing deep generative models developed for this task are primarily data-driven and face challenges in learning disease progressions. BrLP addresses these challenges by incorporating prior knowledge from disease models to enhance the accuracy of predictions. To implement this, we propose to integrate an auxiliary model that infers volumetric changes in various brain regions. Additionally, we introduce Latent Average Stabilization (LAS), a novel technique to improve spatiotemporal consistency of the predicted progression. BrLP is trained and evaluated on a large dataset comprising 11,730 T1-weighted brain MRIs from 2,805 subjects, collected from three publicly available, longitudinal Alzheimer's Disease (AD) studies. In our experiments, we compare the MRI scans generated by BrLP with the actual follow-up MRIs available from the subjects, in both cross-sectional and longitudinal settings. BrLP demonstrates significant improvements over existing methods, with an increase of 22% in volumetric accuracy across AD-related brain regions and 43% in image similarity to the ground-truth scans. The ability of BrLP to generate conditioned 3D scans at the subject level, along with the novelty of integrating prior knowledge to enhance accuracy, represents a significant advancement in disease progression modeling, opening new avenues for precision medicine. The code of BrLP is available at the following link: https://github.com/LemuelPuglisi/BrLP.

Automating radiology report generation can significantly alleviate radiologists' workloads. Previous research has primarily focused on realizing highly concise observations while neglecting the precise attributes that determine the severity of diseases (e.g., small pleural effusion). Since incorrect attributes will lead to imprecise radiology reports, strengthening the generation process with precise attribute modeling becomes necessary. Additionally, the temporal information contained in the historical records, which is crucial in evaluating a patient's current condition (e.g., heart size is unchanged), has also been largely disregarded. To address these issues, we propose RECAP, which generates precise and accurate radiology reports via dynamic disease progression reasoning. Specifically, RECAP first predicts the observations and progressions (i.e., spatiotemporal information) given two consecutive radiographs. It then combines the historical records, spatiotemporal information, and radiographs for report generation, where a disease progression graph and dynamic progression reasoning mechanism are devised to accurately select the attributes of each observation and progression. Extensive experiments on two publicly available datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our model.

Advances in medical imaging technologies have enabled the collection of longitudinal images, which involve repeated scanning of the same patients over time, to monitor disease progression. However, predictive modeling of such data remains challenging due to high dimensionality, irregular sampling, and data sparsity. To address these issues, we propose ImageFlowNet, a novel model designed to forecast disease trajectories from initial images while preserving spatial details. ImageFlowNet first learns multiscale joint representation spaces across patients and time points, then optimizes deterministic or stochastic flow fields within these spaces using a position-parameterized neural ODE/SDE framework. The model leverages a UNet architecture to create robust multiscale representations and mitigates data scarcity by combining knowledge from all patients. We provide theoretical insights that support our formulation of ODEs, and motivate our regularizations involving high-level visual features, latent space organization, and trajectory smoothness. We validate ImageFlowNet on three longitudinal medical image datasets depicting progression in geographic atrophy, multiple sclerosis, and glioblastoma, demonstrating its ability to effectively forecast disease progression and outperform existing methods. Our contributions include the development of ImageFlowNet, its theoretical underpinnings, and empirical validation on real-world datasets. The official implementation is available at https://github.com/KrishnaswamyLab/ImageFlowNet.

Disease progression simulation is a crucial area of research that has significant implications for clinical diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment. One major challenge in this field is the lack of continuous medical imaging monitoring of individual patients over time. To address this issue, we develop a novel framework termed Progressive Image Editing (PIE) that enables controlled manipulation of disease-related image features, facilitating precise and realistic disease progression simulation. Specifically, we leverage recent advancements in text-to-image generative models to simulate disease progression accurately and personalize it for each patient. We theoretically analyze the iterative refining process in our framework as a gradient descent with an exponentially decayed learning rate. To validate our framework, we conduct experiments in three medical imaging domains. Our results demonstrate the superiority of PIE over existing methods such as Stable Diffusion Walk and Style-Based Manifold Extrapolation based on CLIP score (Realism) and Disease Classification Confidence (Alignment). Our user study collected feedback from 35 veteran physicians to assess the generated progressions. Remarkably, 76.2% of the feedback agrees with the fidelity of the generated progressions. To our best knowledge, PIE is the first of its kind to generate disease progression images meeting real-world standards. It is a promising tool for medical research and clinical practice, potentially allowing healthcare providers to model disease trajectories over time, predict future treatment responses, and improve patient outcomes.

A brain tumour is a mass or cluster of abnormal cells in the brain, which has the possibility of becoming life-threatening because of its ability to invade neighbouring tissues and also form metastases. An accurate diagnosis is essential for successful treatment planning and magnetic resonance imaging is the principal imaging modality for diagnostic of brain tumours and their extent. Deep Learning methods in computer vision applications have shown significant improvement in recent years, most of which can be credited to the fact that a sizeable amount of data is available to train models on, and the improvements in the model architectures yielding better approximations in a supervised setting. Classifying tumours using such deep learning methods has made significant progress with the availability of open datasets with reliable annotations. Typically those methods are either 3D models, which use 3D volumetric MRIs or even 2D models considering each slice separately. However, by treating the slice spatial dimension separately, spatiotemporal models can be employed as spatiospatial models for this task. These models have the capabilities of learning specific spatial and temporal relationship, while reducing computational costs. This paper uses two spatiotemporal models, ResNet (2+1)D and ResNet Mixed Convolution, to classify different types of brain tumours. It was observed that both these models performed superior to the pure 3D convolutional model, ResNet18. Furthermore, it was also observed that pre-training the models on a different, even unrelated dataset before training them for the task of tumour classification improves the performance. Finally, Pre-trained ResNet Mixed Convolution was observed to be the best model in these experiments, achieving a macro F1-score of 0.93 and a test accuracy of 96.98\%, while at the same time being the model with the least computational cost.

The acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic has made apparent the need for decision support based upon accurate epidemic modeling. This process is substantially hampered by under-reporting of cases and related data incompleteness issues. In this article we adopt the Bayesian paradigm and synthesize publicly available data via a discrete-time stochastic epidemic modeling framework. The models allow for estimating the total number of infections while accounting for the endemic phase of the pandemic. We assess the prediction of the infection rate utilizing mobility information, notably the principal components of the mobility data. We evaluate variational Bayes in this context and find that Hamiltonian Monte Carlo offers a robust inference alternative for such models. We elaborate upon vector analysis of the epidemic dynamics, thus enriching the traditional tools used for decision making. In particular, we show how certain 2-dimensional plots on the phase plane may yield intuitive information regarding the speed and the type of transmission dynamics. We investigate the potential of a two-stage analysis as a consequence of cutting feedback, for inference on certain functionals of the model parameters. Finally, we show that a point mass on critical parameters is overly restrictive and investigate informative priors as a suitable alternative.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a degenerative brain disease impairing a person's ability to perform day to day activities. The clinical manifestations of Alzheimer's disease are characterized by heterogeneity in age, disease span, progression rate, impairment of memory and cognitive abilities. Due to these variabilities, personalized care and treatment planning, as well as patient counseling about their individual progression is limited. Recent developments in machine learning to detect hidden patterns in complex, multi-dimensional datasets provides significant opportunities to address this critical need. In this work, we use unsupervised and supervised machine learning approaches for subtype identification and prediction. We apply machine learning methods to the extensive clinical observations available at the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data set to identify patient subtypes and to predict disease progression. Our analysis depicts the progression space for the Alzheimer's disease into low, moderate and high disease progression zones. The proposed work will enable early detection and characterization of distinct disease subtypes based on clinical heterogeneity. We anticipate that our models will enable patient counseling, clinical trial design, and ultimately individualized clinical care.

The long-term effects of Postacute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2, known as PASC, pose a significant challenge to healthcare systems worldwide. Accurate identification of progression events, such as hospitalization and reinfection, is essential for effective patient management and resource allocation. However, traditional models trained on structured data struggle to capture the nuanced progression of PASC. In this study, we introduce the first publicly available cohort of 18 PASC patients, with text time series features based on Large Language Model Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct and clinical risk annotated by clinical expert. We propose an Active Attention Network to predict the clinical risk and identify progression events related to the risk. By integrating human expertise with active learning, we aim to enhance clinical risk prediction accuracy and enable progression events identification with fewer number of annotation. The ultimate goal is to improves patient care and decision-making for SARS-CoV-2 patient.

The World Health Organization added Disease X to their shortlist of blueprint priority diseases to represent a hypothetical, unknown pathogen that could cause a future epidemic. During different virus outbreaks of the past, such as COVID-19, Influenza, Lyme Disease, and Zika virus, researchers from various disciplines utilized Google Trends to mine multimodal components of web behavior to study, investigate, and analyze the global awareness, preparedness, and response associated with these respective virus outbreaks. As the world prepares for Disease X, a dataset on web behavior related to Disease X would be crucial to contribute towards the timely advancement of research in this field. Furthermore, none of the prior works in this field have focused on the development of a dataset to compile relevant web behavior data, which would help to prepare for Disease X. To address these research challenges, this work presents a dataset of web behavior related to Disease X, which emerged from different geographic regions of the world, between February 2018 and August 2023. Specifically, this dataset presents the search interests related to Disease X from 94 geographic regions. The dataset was developed by collecting data using Google Trends. The relevant search interests for all these regions for each month in this time range are available in this dataset. This paper also discusses the compliance of this dataset with the FAIR principles of scientific data management. Finally, an analysis of this dataset is presented to uphold the applicability, relevance, and usefulness of this dataset for the investigation of different research questions in the interrelated fields of Big Data, Data Mining, Healthcare, Epidemiology, and Data Analysis with a specific focus on Disease X.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

Deep neural networks are often applied to medical images to automate the problem of medical diagnosis. However, a more clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease. Current methods for prognosis or disease trajectory forecasting often require domain knowledge and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many prediction problem. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner -- we predict prognosis with two transformer-based components that share information with each other. The first transformer in this framework aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second one leverages its internal states as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary clinical data. The temporal nature of the problem is modeled within the transformer states, allowing us to treat the forecasting problem as a multi-task classification, for which we propose a novel loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes and forecasting Alzheimer's disease clinical status directly from raw multi-modal data. The proposed method outperforms multiple state-of-the-art baselines with respect to performance and calibration, both of which are needed for real-world applications. An open-source implementation of our method is made publicly available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/CLIMATv2.

The past several years have witnessed a huge surge in the use of social media platforms during mass convergence events such as health emergencies, natural or human-induced disasters. These non-traditional data sources are becoming vital for disease forecasts and surveillance when preparing for epidemic and pandemic outbreaks. In this paper, we present GeoCoV19, a large-scale Twitter dataset containing more than 524 million multilingual tweets posted over a period of 90 days since February 1, 2020. Moreover, we employ a gazetteer-based approach to infer the geolocation of tweets. We postulate that this large-scale, multilingual, geolocated social media data can empower the research communities to evaluate how societies are collectively coping with this unprecedented global crisis as well as to develop computational methods to address challenges such as identifying fake news, understanding communities' knowledge gaps, building disease forecast and surveillance models, among others.

Longitudinal analysis has great potential to reveal developmental trajectories and monitor disease progression in medical imaging. This process relies on consistent and robust joint 4D segmentation. Traditional techniques are dependent on the similarity of images over time and the use of subject-specific priors to reduce random variation and improve the robustness and sensitivity of the overall longitudinal analysis. This is however slow and computationally intensive as subject-specific templates need to be rebuilt every time. The focus of this work to accelerate this analysis with the use of deep learning. The proposed approach is based on deep CNNs and incorporates semantic segmentation and provides a longitudinal relationship for the same subject. The proposed approach is based on deep CNNs and incorporates semantic segmentation and provides a longitudinal relationship for the same subject. The state of art using 3D patches as inputs to modified Unet provides results around {0.91 pm 0.5} Dice and using multi-view atlas in CNNs provide around the same results. In this work, different models are explored, each offers better accuracy and fast results while increasing the segmentation quality. These methods are evaluated on 135 scans from the EADC-ADNI Harmonized Hippocampus Protocol. Proposed CNN based segmentation approaches demonstrate how 2D segmentation using prior slices can provide similar results to 3D segmentation while maintaining good continuity in the 3D dimension and improved speed. Just using 2D modified sagittal slices provide us a better Dice and longitudinal analysis for a given subject. For the ADNI dataset, using the simple UNet CNN technique gives us {0.84 pm 0.5} and while using modified CNN techniques on the same input yields {0.89 pm 0.5}. Rate of atrophy and RMS error are calculated for several test cases using various methods and analyzed.

Providing effective treatment and making informed clinical decisions are essential goals of modern medicine and clinical care. We are interested in simulating disease dynamics for clinical decision-making, leveraging recent advances in large generative models. To this end, we introduce the Medical World Model (MeWM), the first world model in medicine that visually predicts future disease states based on clinical decisions. MeWM comprises (i) vision-language models to serve as policy models, and (ii) tumor generative models as dynamics models. The policy model generates action plans, such as clinical treatments, while the dynamics model simulates tumor progression or regression under given treatment conditions. Building on this, we propose the inverse dynamics model that applies survival analysis to the simulated post-treatment tumor, enabling the evaluation of treatment efficacy and the selection of the optimal clinical action plan. As a result, the proposed MeWM simulates disease dynamics by synthesizing post-treatment tumors, with state-of-the-art specificity in Turing tests evaluated by radiologists. Simultaneously, its inverse dynamics model outperforms medical-specialized GPTs in optimizing individualized treatment protocols across all metrics. Notably, MeWM improves clinical decision-making for interventional physicians, boosting F1-score in selecting the optimal TACE protocol by 13%, paving the way for future integration of medical world models as the second readers.

The timely identification of socio-economic sectors vulnerable to a disease outbreak presents an important challenge to the civic authorities and healthcare workers interested in outbreak mitigation measures. This problem was traditionally solved by studying the aberrances in small-scale healthcare data. In this paper, we leverage data driven models to determine the relationship between the trends of World Development Indicators and occurrence of disease outbreaks using worldwide historical data from 2000-2019, and treat it as a classic supervised classification problem. CART based feature selection was employed in an unorthodox fashion to determine the covariates getting affected by the disease outbreak, thus giving the most vulnerable sectors. The result involves a comprehensive analysis of different classification algorithms and is indicative of the relationship between the disease outbreak occurrence and the magnitudes of various development indicators.

Agent Based Models (ABMs) have emerged as a powerful tool for investigating complex social interactions, particularly in the context of public health and infectious disease investigation. In an effort to enhance the conventional ABM, enabling automated model calibration and reducing the computational resources needed for scaling up the model, we have developed a tensorized and differentiable agent-based model by coupling Graph Neural Network (GNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. The model was employed to investigate the 2019 measles outbreak occurred in New Zealand, demonstrating a promising ability to accurately simulate the outbreak dynamics, particularly during the peak period of repeated cases. This paper shows that by leveraging the latest Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology and the capabilities of traditional ABMs, we gain deeper insights into the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks. This, in turn, helps us make more informed decision when developing effective strategies that strike a balance between managing outbreaks and minimizing disruptions to everyday life.

Graph Neural Networks have gained huge interest in the past few years. These powerful algorithms expanded deep learning models to non-Euclidean space and were able to achieve state of art performance in various applications including recommender systems and social networks. However, this performance is based on static graph structures assumption which limits the Graph Neural Networks performance when the data varies with time. Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks are extension of Graph Neural Networks that takes the time factor into account. Recently, various Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Network algorithms were proposed and achieved superior performance compared to other deep learning algorithms in several time dependent applications. This survey discusses interesting topics related to Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks, including algorithms, applications, and open challenges.

Knowledge about the hidden factors that determine particular system dynamics is crucial for both explaining them and pursuing goal-directed interventions. Inferring these factors from time series data without supervision remains an open challenge. Here, we focus on spatiotemporal processes, including wave propagation and weather dynamics, for which we assume that universal causes (e.g. physics) apply throughout space and time. A recently introduced DIstributed SpatioTemporal graph Artificial Neural network Architecture (DISTANA) is used and enhanced to learn such processes, requiring fewer parameters and achieving significantly more accurate predictions compared to temporal convolutional neural networks and other related approaches. We show that DISTANA, when combined with a retrospective latent state inference principle called active tuning, can reliably derive location-respective hidden causal factors. In a current weather prediction benchmark, DISTANA infers our planet's land-sea mask solely by observing temperature dynamics and, meanwhile, uses the self inferred information to improve its own future temperature predictions.

Automated radiology report generation offers an effective solution to alleviate radiologists' workload. However, most existing methods focus primarily on single or fixed-view images to model current disease conditions, which limits diagnostic accuracy and overlooks disease progression. Although some approaches utilize longitudinal data to track disease progression, they still rely on single images to analyze current visits. To address these issues, we propose enhanced contrastive learning with Multi-view Longitudinal data to facilitate chest X-ray Report Generation, named MLRG. Specifically, we introduce a multi-view longitudinal contrastive learning method that integrates spatial information from current multi-view images and temporal information from longitudinal data. This method also utilizes the inherent spatiotemporal information of radiology reports to supervise the pre-training of visual and textual representations. Subsequently, we present a tokenized absence encoding technique to flexibly handle missing patient-specific prior knowledge, allowing the model to produce more accurate radiology reports based on available prior knowledge. Extensive experiments on MIMIC-CXR, MIMIC-ABN, and Two-view CXR datasets demonstrate that our MLRG outperforms recent state-of-the-art methods, achieving a 2.3% BLEU-4 improvement on MIMIC-CXR, a 5.5% F1 score improvement on MIMIC-ABN, and a 2.7% F1 RadGraph improvement on Two-view CXR.

Epidemiologists aiming to model the dynamics of global events face a significant challenge in identifying the factors linked with anomalies such as disease outbreaks. In this paper, we present a novel method for identifying the most important development sectors sensitive to disease outbreaks by using global development indicators as markers. We use statistical methods to assess the causative linkages between these indicators and disease outbreaks, as well as to find the most often ranked indicators. We used data imputation techniques in addition to statistical analysis to convert raw real-world data sets into meaningful data for causal inference. The application of various algorithms for the detection of causal linkages between the indicators is the subject of this research. Despite the fact that disparities in governmental policies between countries account for differences in causal linkages, several indicators emerge as important determinants sensitive to disease outbreaks over the world in the 21st Century.

Controlling the COVID-19 pandemic largely hinges upon the existence of fast, safe, and highly-available diagnostic tools. Ultrasound, in contrast to CT or X-Ray, has many practical advantages and can serve as a globally-applicable first-line examination technique. We provide the largest publicly available lung ultrasound (US) dataset for COVID-19 consisting of 106 videos from three classes (COVID-19, bacterial pneumonia, and healthy controls); curated and approved by medical experts. On this dataset, we perform an in-depth study of the value of deep learning methods for differential diagnosis of COVID-19. We propose a frame-based convolutional neural network that correctly classifies COVID-19 US videos with a sensitivity of 0.98+-0.04 and a specificity of 0.91+-08 (frame-based sensitivity 0.93+-0.05, specificity 0.87+-0.07). We further employ class activation maps for the spatio-temporal localization of pulmonary biomarkers, which we subsequently validate for human-in-the-loop scenarios in a blindfolded study with medical experts. Aiming for scalability and robustness, we perform ablation studies comparing mobile-friendly, frame- and video-based architectures and show reliability of the best model by aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty estimates. We hope to pave the road for a community effort toward an accessible, efficient and interpretable screening method and we have started to work on a clinical validation of the proposed method. Data and code are publicly available.

Spatial confounding poses a significant challenge in scientific studies involving spatial data, where unobserved spatial variables can influence both treatment and outcome, possibly leading to spurious associations. To address this problem, we introduce SpaCE: The Spatial Confounding Environment, the first toolkit to provide realistic benchmark datasets and tools for systematically evaluating causal inference methods designed to alleviate spatial confounding. Each dataset includes training data, true counterfactuals, a spatial graph with coordinates, and smoothness and confounding scores characterizing the effect of a missing spatial confounder. It also includes realistic semi-synthetic outcomes and counterfactuals, generated using state-of-the-art machine learning ensembles, following best practices for causal inference benchmarks. The datasets cover real treatment and covariates from diverse domains, including climate, health and social sciences. SpaCE facilitates an automated end-to-end pipeline, simplifying data loading, experimental setup, and evaluating machine learning and causal inference models. The SpaCE project provides several dozens of datasets of diverse sizes and spatial complexity. It is publicly available as a Python package, encouraging community feedback and contributions.

Graphs have often been used to answer questions about the interaction between real-world entities by taking advantage of their capacity to represent complex topologies. Complex networks are known to be graphs that capture such non-trivial topologies; they are able to represent human phenomena such as epidemic processes, the dynamics of populations, and the urbanization of cities. The investigation of complex networks has been extrapolated to many fields of science, with particular emphasis on computing techniques, including artificial intelligence. In such a case, the analysis of the interaction between entities of interest is transposed to the internal learning of algorithms, a paradigm whose investigation is able to expand the state of the art in Computer Science. By exploring this paradigm, this thesis puts together complex networks and machine learning techniques to improve the understanding of the human phenomena observed in pandemics, pendular migration, and street networks. Accordingly, we contribute with: (i) a new neural network architecture capable of modeling dynamic processes observed in spatial and temporal data with applications in epidemics propagation, weather forecasting, and patient monitoring in intensive care units; (ii) a machine-learning methodology for analyzing and predicting links in the scope of human mobility between all the cities of Brazil; and, (iii) techniques for identifying inconsistencies in the urban planning of cities while tracking the most influential vertices, with applications over Brazilian and worldwide cities. We obtained results sustained by sound evidence of advances to the state of the art in artificial intelligence, rigorous formalisms, and ample experimentation. Our findings rely upon real-world applications in a range of domains, demonstrating the applicability of our methodologies.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

Brain tumor growth is unique to each glioma patient and extends beyond what is visible in imaging scans, infiltrating surrounding brain tissue. Understanding these hidden patient-specific progressions is essential for effective therapies. Current treatment plans for brain tumors, such as radiotherapy, typically involve delineating a uniform margin around the visible tumor on pre-treatment scans to target this invisible tumor growth. This "one size fits all" approach is derived from population studies and often fails to account for the nuances of individual patient conditions. We present the GliODIL framework, which infers the full spatial distribution of tumor cell concentration from available multi-modal imaging, leveraging a Fisher-Kolmogorov type physics model to describe tumor growth. This is achieved through the newly introduced method of Optimizing the Discrete Loss (ODIL), where both data and physics-based constraints are softly assimilated into the solution. Our test dataset comprises 152 glioblastoma patients with pre-treatment imaging and post-treatment follow-ups for tumor recurrence monitoring. By blending data-driven techniques with physics-based constraints, GliODIL enhances recurrence prediction in radiotherapy planning, challenging traditional uniform margins and strict adherence to the Fisher-Kolmogorov partial differential equation (PDE) model, which is adapted for complex cases.

Effectively modeling long spatiotemporal sequences is challenging due to the need to model complex spatial correlations and long-range temporal dependencies simultaneously. ConvLSTMs attempt to address this by updating tensor-valued states with recurrent neural networks, but their sequential computation makes them slow to train. In contrast, Transformers can process an entire spatiotemporal sequence, compressed into tokens, in parallel. However, the cost of attention scales quadratically in length, limiting their scalability to longer sequences. Here, we address the challenges of prior methods and introduce convolutional state space models (ConvSSM) that combine the tensor modeling ideas of ConvLSTM with the long sequence modeling approaches of state space methods such as S4 and S5. First, we demonstrate how parallel scans can be applied to convolutional recurrences to achieve subquadratic parallelization and fast autoregressive generation. We then establish an equivalence between the dynamics of ConvSSMs and SSMs, which motivates parameterization and initialization strategies for modeling long-range dependencies. The result is ConvS5, an efficient ConvSSM variant for long-range spatiotemporal modeling. ConvS5 significantly outperforms Transformers and ConvLSTM on a long horizon Moving-MNIST experiment while training 3X faster than ConvLSTM and generating samples 400X faster than Transformers. In addition, ConvS5 matches or exceeds the performance of state-of-the-art methods on challenging DMLab, Minecraft and Habitat prediction benchmarks and enables new directions for modeling long spatiotemporal sequences.

Spatio-temporal predictive learning is a learning paradigm that enables models to learn spatial and temporal patterns by predicting future frames from given past frames in an unsupervised manner. Despite remarkable progress in recent years, a lack of systematic understanding persists due to the diverse settings, complex implementation, and difficult reproducibility. Without standardization, comparisons can be unfair and insights inconclusive. To address this dilemma, we propose OpenSTL, a comprehensive benchmark for spatio-temporal predictive learning that categorizes prevalent approaches into recurrent-based and recurrent-free models. OpenSTL provides a modular and extensible framework implementing various state-of-the-art methods. We conduct standard evaluations on datasets across various domains, including synthetic moving object trajectory, human motion, driving scenes, traffic flow and weather forecasting. Based on our observations, we provide a detailed analysis of how model architecture and dataset properties affect spatio-temporal predictive learning performance. Surprisingly, we find that recurrent-free models achieve a good balance between efficiency and performance than recurrent models. Thus, we further extend the common MetaFormers to boost recurrent-free spatial-temporal predictive learning. We open-source the code and models at https://github.com/chengtan9907/OpenSTL.

Dengue fever presents a substantial challenge in developing countries where sanitation infrastructure is inadequate. The absence of comprehensive healthcare systems exacerbates the severity of dengue infections, potentially leading to life-threatening circumstances. Rapid response to dengue outbreaks is also challenging due to limited information exchange and integration. While timely dengue outbreak forecasts have the potential to prevent such outbreaks, the majority of dengue prediction studies have predominantly relied on data that impose significant burdens on individual countries for collection. In this study, our aim is to improve health equity in resource-constrained countries by exploring the effectiveness of high-resolution satellite imagery as a nontraditional and readily accessible data source. By leveraging the wealth of publicly available and easily obtainable satellite imagery, we present a scalable satellite extraction framework based on Sentinel Hub, a cloud-based computing platform. Furthermore, we introduce DengueNet, an innovative architecture that combines Vision Transformer, Radiomics, and Long Short-term Memory to extract and integrate spatiotemporal features from satellite images. This enables dengue predictions on an epi-week basis. To evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method, we conducted experiments on five municipalities in Colombia. We utilized a dataset comprising 780 high-resolution Sentinel-2 satellite images for training and evaluation. The performance of DengueNet was assessed using the mean absolute error (MAE) metric. Across the five municipalities, DengueNet achieved an average MAE of 43.92. Our findings strongly support the efficacy of satellite imagery as a valuable resource for dengue prediction, particularly in informing public health policies within countries where manually collected data is scarce and dengue virus prevalence is severe.

Retinal imaging has emerged as a powerful, non-invasive modality for detecting and quantifying biomarkers of systemic diseases-ranging from diabetes and hypertension to Alzheimer's disease and cardiovascular disorders but current insights remain dispersed across platforms and specialties. Recent technological advances in optical coherence tomography (OCT/OCTA) and adaptive optics (AO) now deliver ultra-high-resolution scans (down to 5 {\mu}m ) with superior contrast and spatial integration, allowing early identification of microvascular abnormalities and neurodegenerative changes. At the same time, AI-driven and machine learning (ML) algorithms have revolutionized the analysis of large-scale retinal datasets, increasing sensitivity and specificity; for example, deep learning models achieve > 90 \% sensitivity for diabetic retinopathy and AUC = 0.89 for the prediction of cardiovascular risk from fundus photographs. The proliferation of mobile health technologies and telemedicine platforms further extends access, reduces costs, and facilitates community-based screening and longitudinal monitoring. Despite these breakthroughs, translation into routine practice is hindered by heterogeneous imaging protocols, limited external validation of AI models, and integration challenges within clinical workflows. In this review, we systematically synthesize the latest OCT/OCT and AO developments, AI/ML approaches, and mHealth/Tele-ophthalmology initiatives and quantify their diagnostic performance across disease domains. Finally, we propose a roadmap for multicenter protocol standardization, prospective validation trials, and seamless incorporation of retinal screening into primary and specialty care pathways-paving the way for precision prevention, early intervention, and ongoing treatment of life-threatening systemic diseases.

In medical applications, deep learning methods are built to automate diagnostic tasks. However, a clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face, is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease (prognosis). Current methods for such a problem often require domain knowledge, and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many forecasting problem from multimodal data. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner, we model a prognosis prediction problem with two transformer-based components that share information between each other. The first block in this model aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second block leverages the internal representations of the first one as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary patient data. We show the effectiveness of our method in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes over time. Our results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of various performance metrics. In addition, we empirically show that the existence of the multi-agent transformers with depths of 2 is sufficient to achieve good performances. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/CLIMAT.

We introduce Brain-JEPA, a brain dynamics foundation model with the Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA). This pioneering model achieves state-of-the-art performance in demographic prediction, disease diagnosis/prognosis, and trait prediction through fine-tuning. Furthermore, it excels in off-the-shelf evaluations (e.g., linear probing) and demonstrates superior generalizability across different ethnic groups, surpassing the previous large model for brain activity significantly. Brain-JEPA incorporates two innovative techniques: Brain Gradient Positioning and Spatiotemporal Masking. Brain Gradient Positioning introduces a functional coordinate system for brain functional parcellation, enhancing the positional encoding of different Regions of Interest (ROIs). Spatiotemporal Masking, tailored to the unique characteristics of fMRI data, addresses the challenge of heterogeneous time-series patches. These methodologies enhance model performance and advance our understanding of the neural circuits underlying cognition. Overall, Brain-JEPA is paving the way to address pivotal questions of building brain functional coordinate system and masking brain activity at the AI-neuroscience interface, and setting a potentially new paradigm in brain activity analysis through downstream adaptation.

A compartmental deterministic model that allows (1) immunity from two stages of infection and carriage, and (2) disease induced death, is used in studying the dynamics of meningitis epidemic process in a closed population. It allows for difference in the transmission rate of infection to a susceptible by a carrier and an infective. It is generalized to allow a proportion ({\phi}) of those susceptibles infected to progress directly to infectives in stage I. Both models are used in this study. The threshold conditions for the spread of carrier and infectives in stage I are derived for the two models. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the reproductive number derived from the next generation matrix. The case-carrier ratio profile for various parameters and threshold values are shown. So also are the graphs of the total number ever infected as influenced by {\epsilon} and {\phi}. The infection transmission rate (eta), the odds in favor of a carrier, over an infective, in transmitting an infection to a susceptible ({\epsilon}) and the carrier conversion rate ({\phi}) to an infective in stage I, are identified as key parameters that should be subject of attention for any control intervention strategy. The case-carrier ratio profiles provide evidence of a critical case-carrier ratio attained before the number of reported cases grows to an epidemic level. They also provide visual evidence of epidemiological context, in this case, epidemic incidence (in later part of dry season) and endemic incidence (during rainy season). Results from total proportion ever infected suggest that the model, in which {\phi}=0 obtained, can adequately represent, in essence, the generalized model for this study.

Researchers are usually interested in examining the impact of covariates when separating heterogeneous samples into latent classes that are more homogeneous. The majority of theoretical and empirical studies with such aims have focused on identifying covariates as predictors of class membership in the structural equation modeling framework. In other words, the covariates only indirectly affect the sample heterogeneity. However, the covariates' influence on between-individual differences can also be direct. This article presents a mixture model that investigates covariates to explain within-cluster and between-cluster heterogeneity simultaneously, known as a mixture-of-experts (MoE) model. This study aims to extend the MoE framework to investigate heterogeneity in nonlinear trajectories: to identify latent classes, covariates as predictors to clusters, and covariates that explain within-cluster differences in change patterns over time. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed model generally estimates the parameters unbiasedly, precisely and exhibits appropriate empirical coverage for a nominal 95% confidence interval. This study also proposes implementing structural equation model forests to shrink the covariate space of the proposed mixture model. We illustrate how to select covariates and construct the proposed model with longitudinal mathematics achievement data. Additionally, we demonstrate that the proposed mixture model can be further extended in the structural equation modeling framework by allowing the covariates that have direct effects to be time-varying.

Chest X-ray imaging (CXR) is an important diagnostic tool used in hospitals to assess patient conditions and monitor changes over time. Generative models, specifically diffusion-based models, have shown promise in generating realistic synthetic X-rays. However, these models mainly focus on conditional generation using single-time-point data, i.e., typically CXRs taken at a specific time with their corresponding reports, limiting their clinical utility, particularly for capturing temporal changes. To address this limitation, we propose a novel framework, EHRXDiff, which predicts future CXR images by integrating previous CXRs with subsequent medical events, e.g., prescriptions, lab measures, etc. Our framework dynamically tracks and predicts disease progression based on a latent diffusion model, conditioned on the previous CXR image and a history of medical events. We comprehensively evaluate the performance of our framework across three key aspects, including clinical consistency, demographic consistency, and visual realism. We demonstrate that our framework generates high-quality, realistic future images that capture potential temporal changes, suggesting its potential for further development as a clinical simulation tool. This could offer valuable insights for patient monitoring and treatment planning in the medical field.

As of writing this paper, COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) has spread to more than 220 countries and territories. Following the outbreak, the pandemic's seriousness has made people more active on social media, especially on the microblogging platforms such as Twitter and Weibo. The pandemic-specific discourse has remained on-trend on these platforms for months now. Previous studies have confirmed the contributions of such socially generated conversations towards situational awareness of crisis events. The early forecasts of cases are essential to authorities to estimate the requirements of resources needed to cope with the outgrowths of the virus. Therefore, this study attempts to incorporate the public discourse in the design of forecasting models particularly targeted for the steep-hill region of an ongoing wave. We propose a sentiment-involved topic-based latent variables search methodology for designing forecasting models from publicly available Twitter conversations. As a use case, we implement the proposed methodology on Australian COVID-19 daily cases and Twitter conversations generated within the country. Experimental results: (i) show the presence of latent social media variables that Granger-cause the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases, and (ii) confirm that those variables offer additional prediction capability to forecasting models. Further, the results show that the inclusion of social media variables introduces 48.83--51.38% improvements on RMSE over the baseline models. We also release the large-scale COVID-19 specific geotagged global tweets dataset, MegaGeoCOV, to the public anticipating that the geotagged data of this scale would aid in understanding the conversational dynamics of the pandemic through other spatial and temporal contexts.

Random network models play a prominent role in modeling, analyzing and understanding complex phenomena on real-life networks. However, a key property of networks is often neglected: many real-world networks exhibit spatial structure, the tendency of a node to select neighbors with a probability depending on physical distance. Here, we introduce a class of random spatial networks (RSNs) which generalizes many existing random network models but adds spatial structure. In these networks, nodes are placed randomly in space and joined in edges with a probability depending on their distance and their individual expected degrees, in a manner that crucially remains analytically tractable. We use this network class to propose a new generalization of small-world networks, where the average shortest path lengths in the graph are small, as in classical Watts-Strogatz small-world networks, but with close spatial proximity of nodes that are neighbors in the network playing the role of large clustering. Small-world effects are demonstrated on these spatial small-world networks without clustering. We are able to derive partial integro-differential equations governing susceptible-infectious-recovered disease spreading through an RSN, and we demonstrate the existence of traveling wave solutions. If the distance kernel governing edge placement decays slower than exponential, the population-scale dynamics are dominated by long-range hops followed by local spread of traveling waves. This provides a theoretical modeling framework for recent observations of how epidemics like Ebola evolve in modern connected societies, with long-range connections seeding new focal points from which the epidemic locally spreads in a wavelike manner.

Integrating CNNs and RNNs to capture spatiotemporal dependencies is a prevalent strategy for spatiotemporal prediction tasks. However, the property of CNNs to learn local spatial information decreases their efficiency in capturing spatiotemporal dependencies, thereby limiting their prediction accuracy. In this paper, we propose a new recurrent cell, SwinLSTM, which integrates Swin Transformer blocks and the simplified LSTM, an extension that replaces the convolutional structure in ConvLSTM with the self-attention mechanism. Furthermore, we construct a network with SwinLSTM cell as the core for spatiotemporal prediction. Without using unique tricks, SwinLSTM outperforms state-of-the-art methods on Moving MNIST, Human3.6m, TaxiBJ, and KTH datasets. In particular, it exhibits a significant improvement in prediction accuracy compared to ConvLSTM. Our competitive experimental results demonstrate that learning global spatial dependencies is more advantageous for models to capture spatiotemporal dependencies. We hope that SwinLSTM can serve as a solid baseline to promote the advancement of spatiotemporal prediction accuracy. The codes are publicly available at https://github.com/SongTang-x/SwinLSTM.

Interrogating the evolution of biological changes at early stages of life requires longitudinal profiling of molecules, such as DNA methylation, which can be challenging with children. We introduce a probabilistic and longitudinal machine learning framework based on multi-mean Gaussian processes (GPs), accounting for individual and gene correlations across time. This method provides future predictions of DNA methylation status at different individual ages while accounting for uncertainty. Our model is trained on a birth cohort of children with methylation profiled at ages 0-4, and we demonstrated that the status of methylation sites for each child can be accurately predicted at ages 5-7. We show that methylation profiles predicted by multi-mean GPs can be used to estimate other phenotypes, such as epigenetic age, and enable comparison to other health measures of interest. This approach encourages epigenetic studies to move towards longitudinal design for investigating epigenetic changes during development, ageing and disease progression.

Despite decades of clinical research, sepsis remains a global public health crisis with high mortality, and morbidity. Currently, when sepsis is detected and the underlying pathogen is identified, organ damage may have already progressed to irreversible stages. Effective sepsis management is therefore highly time-sensitive. By systematically analysing trends in the plethora of clinical data available in the intensive care unit (ICU), an early prediction of sepsis could lead to earlier pathogen identification, resistance testing, and effective antibiotic and supportive treatment, and thereby become a life-saving measure. Here, we developed and validated a machine learning (ML) system for the prediction of sepsis in the ICU. Our analysis represents the largest multi-national, multi-centre in-ICU study for sepsis prediction using ML to date. Our dataset contains 156,309 unique ICU admissions, which represent a refined and harmonised subset of five large ICU databases originating from three countries. Using the international consensus definition Sepsis-3, we derived hourly-resolved sepsis label annotations, amounting to 26,734 (17.1%) septic stays. We compared our approach, a deep self-attention model, to several clinical baselines as well as ML baselines and performed an extensive internal and external validation within and across databases. On average, our model was able to predict sepsis with an AUROC of 0.847 pm 0.050 (internal out-of sample validation) and 0.761 pm 0.052 (external validation). For a harmonised prevalence of 17%, at 80% recall our model detects septic patients with 39% precision 3.7 hours in advance.

Real-world deployment of machine learning models is challenging because data evolves over time. While no model can work when data evolves in an arbitrary fashion, if there is some pattern to these changes, we might be able to design methods to address it. This paper addresses situations when data evolves gradually. We introduce a time-varying propensity score that can detect gradual shifts in the distribution of data which allows us to selectively sample past data to update the model -- not just similar data from the past like that of a standard propensity score but also data that evolved in a similar fashion in the past. The time-varying propensity score is quite general: we demonstrate different ways of implementing it and evaluate it on a variety of problems ranging from supervised learning (e.g., image classification problems) where data undergoes a sequence of gradual shifts, to reinforcement learning tasks (e.g., robotic manipulation and continuous control) where data shifts as the policy or the task changes.

Recently, intelligent analysis of lung nodules with the assistant of computer aided detection (CAD) techniques can improve the accuracy rate of lung cancer diagnosis. However, existing CAD systems and pulmonary datasets mainly focus on Computed Tomography (CT) images from one single period, while ignoring the cross spatio-temporal features associated with the progression of nodules contained in imaging data from various captured periods of lung cancer. If the evolution patterns of nodules across various periods in the patients' CT sequences can be explored, it will play a crucial role in guiding the precise screening identification of lung cancer. Therefore, a cross spatio-temporal lung nodule dataset with pathological information for nodule identification and diagnosis is constructed, which contains 328 CT sequences and 362 annotated nodules from 109 patients. This comprehensive database is intended to drive research in the field of CAD towards more practical and robust methods, and also contribute to the further exploration of precision medicine related field. To ensure patient confidentiality, we have removed sensitive information from the dataset.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

Spatiotemporal predictive learning methods generally fall into two categories: recurrent-based approaches, which face challenges in parallelization and performance, and recurrent-free methods, which employ convolutional neural networks (CNNs) as encoder-decoder architectures. These methods benefit from strong inductive biases but often at the expense of scalability and generalization. This paper proposes PredFormer, a pure transformer-based framework for spatiotemporal predictive learning. Motivated by the Vision Transformers (ViT) design, PredFormer leverages carefully designed Gated Transformer blocks, following a comprehensive analysis of 3D attention mechanisms, including full-, factorized-, and interleaved-spatial-temporal attention. With its recurrent-free, transformer-based design, PredFormer is both simple and efficient, significantly outperforming previous methods by large margins. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that PredFormer achieves state-of-the-art performance. On Moving MNIST, PredFormer achieves a 51.3% reduction in MSE relative to SimVP. For TaxiBJ, the model decreases MSE by 33.1% and boosts FPS from 533 to 2364. Additionally, on WeatherBench, it reduces MSE by 11.1% while enhancing FPS from 196 to 404. These performance gains in both accuracy and efficiency demonstrate PredFormer's potential for real-world applications. The source code will be released at https://github.com/yyyujintang/PredFormer .

Heart disease, also known as cardiovascular disease, is a prevalent and critical medical condition characterized by the impairment of the heart and blood vessels, leading to various complications such as coronary artery disease, heart failure, and myocardial infarction. The timely and accurate detection of heart disease is of paramount importance in clinical practice. Early identification of individuals at risk enables proactive interventions, preventive measures, and personalized treatment strategies to mitigate the progression of the disease and reduce adverse outcomes. In recent years, the field of heart disease detection has witnessed notable advancements due to the integration of sophisticated technologies and computational approaches. These include machine learning algorithms, data mining techniques, and predictive modeling frameworks that leverage vast amounts of clinical and physiological data to improve diagnostic accuracy and risk stratification. In this work, we propose to detect heart disease from ECG images using cutting-edge technologies, namely vision transformer models. These models are Google-Vit, Microsoft-Beit, and Swin-Tiny. To the best of our knowledge, this is the initial endeavor concentrating on the detection of heart diseases through image-based ECG data by employing cuttingedge technologies namely, transformer models. To demonstrate the contribution of the proposed framework, the performance of vision transformer models are compared with state-of-the-art studies. Experiment results show that the proposed framework exhibits remarkable classification results.

Accurately forecasting patient arrivals at Urgent Care Clinics (UCCs) and Emergency Departments (EDs) is important for effective resourcing and patient care. However, correctly estimating patient flows is not straightforward since it depends on many drivers. The predictability of patient arrivals has recently been further complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic conditions and the resulting lockdowns. This study investigates how a suite of novel quasi-real-time variables like Google search terms, pedestrian traffic, the prevailing incidence levels of influenza, as well as the COVID-19 Alert Level indicators can both generally improve the forecasting models of patient flows and effectively adapt the models to the unfolding disruptions of pandemic conditions. This research also uniquely contributes to the body of work in this domain by employing tools from the eXplainable AI field to investigate more deeply the internal mechanics of the models than has previously been done. The Voting ensemble-based method combining machine learning and statistical techniques was the most reliable in our experiments. Our study showed that the prevailing COVID-19 Alert Level feature together with Google search terms and pedestrian traffic were effective at producing generalisable forecasts. The implications of this study are that proxy variables can effectively augment standard autoregressive features to ensure accurate forecasting of patient flows. The experiments showed that the proposed features are potentially effective model inputs for preserving forecast accuracies in the event of future pandemic outbreaks.

Objective: To improve prediction of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) progression to End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) using machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models applied to an integrated clinical and claims dataset of varying observation windows, supported by explainable AI (XAI) to enhance interpretability and reduce bias. Materials and Methods: We utilized data about 10,326 CKD patients, combining their clinical and claims information from 2009 to 2018. Following data preprocessing, cohort identification, and feature engineering, we evaluated multiple statistical, ML and DL models using data extracted from five distinct observation windows. Feature importance and Shapley value analysis were employed to understand key predictors. Models were tested for robustness, clinical relevance, misclassification errors and bias issues. Results: Integrated data models outperformed those using single data sources, with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model achieving the highest AUC (0.93) and F1 score (0.65). A 24-month observation window was identified as optimal for balancing early detection and prediction accuracy. The 2021 eGFR equation improved prediction accuracy and reduced racial bias, notably for African American patients. Discussion: Improved ESRD prediction accuracy, results interpretability and bias mitigation strategies presented in this study have the potential to significantly enhance CKD and ESRD management, support targeted early interventions and reduce healthcare disparities. Conclusion: This study presents a robust framework for predicting ESRD outcomes in CKD patients, improving clinical decision-making and patient care through multi-sourced, integrated data and AI/ML methods. Future research will expand data integration and explore the application of this framework to other chronic diseases.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive disease that irreversibly transforms lung tissue into rigid fibrotic structures, leading to debilitating symptoms such as shortness of breath and chronic fatigue. The heterogeneity and complexity of this disease, particularly regarding its severity and progression rate, have made predicting its future course a complex and challenging task. Besides, traditional diagnostic methods based on clinical evaluations and imaging have limitations in capturing the disease's complexity. Using the Kaggle Pulmonary Fibrosis Progression dataset, which includes computed tomography images, and clinical information, the model predicts changes in forced vital capacity (FVC), a key progression indicator. Our method uses a proposed context-aware sequential-parallel hybrid transformer model and clinical information enrichment for its prediction. The proposed method achieved a Laplace Log-Likelihood score of -6.508, outperforming prior methods and demonstrating superior predictive capabilities. These results highlight the potential of advanced deep learning techniques to provide more accurate and timely predictions, offering a transformative approach to the diagnosis and management of IPF, with implications for improved patient outcomes and therapeutic advancements.

Knee Osteoarthritis (KOA) is a highly prevalent chronic musculoskeletal condition with no currently available treatment. The manifestation of KOA is heterogeneous and prediction of its progression is challenging. Current literature suggests that the use of multi-modal data and advanced modeling methods, such as the ones based on Deep Learning, has promise in tackling this challenge. To date, however, the evidence on the efficacy of this approach is limited. In this study, we leveraged recent advances in Deep Learning and, using a Transformer approach, developed a unified framework for the multi-modal fusion of knee imaging data. Subsequently, we analyzed its performance across a range of scenarios by investigating multiple progression horizons -- from short-term to long-term. We report our findings using a large cohort (n=2421-3967) derived from the Osteoarthritis Initiative dataset. We show that structural knee MRI allows identifying radiographic KOA progressors on par with multi-modal fusion approaches, achieving an area under the ROC curve (ROC AUC) of 0.70-0.76 and Average Precision (AP) of 0.15-0.54 in 2-8 year horizons. Progression within 1 year was better predicted with a multi-modal method using X-ray, structural, and compositional MR images -- ROC AUC of 0.76(0.04), AP of 0.13(0.04) -- or via clinical data. Our follow-up analysis generally shows that prediction from the imaging data is more accurate for post-traumatic subjects, and we further investigate which subject subgroups may benefit the most. The present study provides novel insights into multi-modal imaging of KOA and brings a unified data-driven framework for studying its progression in an end-to-end manner, providing new tools for the design of more efficient clinical trials. The source code of our framework and the pre-trained models are made publicly available.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are popular nonparametric statistical models for learning unknown functions and quantifying the spatiotemporal uncertainty in data. Recent works have extended GPs to model scalar and vector quantities distributed over non-Euclidean domains, including smooth manifolds appearing in numerous fields such as computer vision, dynamical systems, and neuroscience. However, these approaches assume that the manifold underlying the data is known, limiting their practical utility. We introduce RVGP, a generalisation of GPs for learning vector signals over latent Riemannian manifolds. Our method uses positional encoding with eigenfunctions of the connection Laplacian, associated with the tangent bundle, readily derived from common graph-based approximation of data. We demonstrate that RVGP possesses global regularity over the manifold, which allows it to super-resolve and inpaint vector fields while preserving singularities. Furthermore, we use RVGP to reconstruct high-density neural dynamics derived from low-density EEG recordings in healthy individuals and Alzheimer's patients. We show that vector field singularities are important disease markers and that their reconstruction leads to a comparable classification accuracy of disease states to high-density recordings. Thus, our method overcomes a significant practical limitation in experimental and clinical applications.

With the looming threat of climate change, neglected tropical diseases such as dengue, zika, and chikungunya have the potential to become an even greater global concern. Remote sensing technologies can aid in controlling the spread of Aedes Aegypti, the transmission vector of such diseases, by automating the detection and mapping of mosquito breeding sites, such that local entities can properly intervene. In this work, we leverage YOLOv7, a state-of-the-art and computationally efficient detection approach, to localize and track mosquito foci in videos captured by unmanned aerial vehicles. We experiment on a dataset released to the public as part of the ICIP 2023 grand challenge entitled Automatic Detection of Mosquito Breeding Grounds. We show that YOLOv7 can be directly applied to detect larger foci categories such as pools, tires, and water tanks and that a cheap and straightforward aggregation of frame-by-frame detection can incorporate time consistency into the tracking process.

Accurate prediction of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) progression from structural MRI has a potential to enhance disease understanding and support clinical trials. Prior art focused on manually designed imaging biomarkers, which may not fully exploit all disease-related information present in MRI scan. In contrast, our method learns relevant representations from raw data end-to-end using Deep Learning, and uses them for progression prediction. The method employs a 2D CNN to process the data slice-wise and aggregate the extracted features using a Transformer. Evaluated on a large cohort (n=4,866), the proposed method outperforms conventional 2D and 3D CNN-based models and achieves average precision of 0.58pm0.03 and ROC AUC of 0.78pm0.01. This paper sets a baseline on end-to-end KOA progression prediction from structural MRI. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/OAProgressionMR.

Clinical trials or studies oftentimes require long-term and/or costly follow-up of participants to evaluate a novel treatment/drug/vaccine. There has been increasing interest in the past few decades in using short-term surrogate outcomes as a replacement of the primary outcome i.e., in using the surrogate outcome, which can potentially be observed sooner, to make inference about the treatment effect on the long-term primary outcome. Very few of the available statistical methods to evaluate a surrogate are applicable to settings where both the surrogate and the primary outcome are time-to-event outcomes subject to censoring. Methods that can handle this setting tend to require parametric assumptions or be limited to assessing only the restricted mean survival time. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric approach to evaluate a censored surrogate outcome, such as time to progression, when the primary outcome is also a censored time-to-event outcome, such as time to death, and the treatment effect of interest is the difference in overall survival. Specifically, we define the proportion of the treatment effect on the primary outcome that is explained (PTE) by the censored surrogate outcome in this context, and estimate this proportion by defining and deriving an optimal transformation of the surrogate information. Our approach provides the added advantage of relaxed assumptions to guarantee that the true PTE is within (0,1), along with being model-free. Finite sample performance of our estimators are illustrated via extensive simulation studies and a real data application examining progression-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer.

In recent years, medical information technology has made it possible for electronic health record (EHR) to store fairly complete clinical data. This has brought health care into the era of "big data". However, medical data are often sparse and strongly correlated, which means that medical problems cannot be solved effectively. With the rapid development of deep learning in recent years, it has provided opportunities for the use of big data in healthcare. In this paper, we propose a temporal-saptial correlation attention network (TSCAN) to handle some clinical characteristic prediction problems, such as predicting death, predicting length of stay, detecting physiologic decline, and classifying phenotypes. Based on the design of the attention mechanism model, our approach can effectively remove irrelevant items in clinical data and irrelevant nodes in time according to different tasks, so as to obtain more accurate prediction results. Our method can also find key clinical indicators of important outcomes that can be used to improve treatment options. Our experiments use information from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) database, which is open to the public. Finally, we have achieved significant performance benefits of 2.0\% (metric) compared to other SOTA prediction methods. We achieved a staggering 90.7\% on mortality rate, 45.1\% on length of stay. The source code can be find: https://github.com/yuyuheintju/TSCAN.

Despite being an integral tool for finding health-related information online, YouTube has faced criticism for disseminating COVID-19 misinformation globally to its users. Yet, prior audit studies have predominantly investigated YouTube within the Global North contexts, often overlooking the Global South. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive 10-day geolocation-based audit on YouTube to compare the prevalence of COVID-19 misinformation in search results between the United States (US) and South Africa (SA), the countries heavily affected by the pandemic in the Global North and the Global South, respectively. For each country, we selected 3 geolocations and placed sock-puppets, or bots emulating "real" users, that collected search results for 48 search queries sorted by 4 search filters for 10 days, yielding a dataset of 915K results. We found that 31.55% of the top-10 search results contained COVID-19 misinformation. Among the top-10 search results, bots in SA faced significantly more misinformative search results than their US counterparts. Overall, our study highlights the contrasting algorithmic behaviors of YouTube search between two countries, underscoring the need for the platform to regulate algorithmic behavior consistently across different regions of the Globe.

The advent of single-cell technology has significantly improved our understanding of cellular states and subpopulations in various tissues under normal and diseased conditions by employing data-driven approaches such as clustering and trajectory inference. However, these methods consider cells as independent data points of population distributions. With spatial transcriptomics, we can represent cellular organization, along with dynamic cell-cell interactions that lead to changes in cell state. Still, key computational advances are necessary to enable the data-driven learning of such complex interactive cellular dynamics. While agent-based modeling (ABM) provides a powerful framework, traditional approaches rely on handcrafted rules derived from domain knowledge rather than data-driven approaches. To address this, we introduce Spatio Temporal Agent-Based Graph Evolution Dynamics(STAGED) integrating ABM with deep learning to model intercellular communication, and its effect on the intracellular gene regulatory network. Using graph ODE networks (GDEs) with shared weights per cell type, our approach represents genes as vertices and interactions as directed edges, dynamically learning their strengths through a designed attention mechanism. Trained to match continuous trajectories of simulated as well as inferred trajectories from spatial transcriptomics data, the model captures both intercellular and intracellular interactions, enabling a more adaptive and accurate representation of cellular dynamics.

We tackle the challenge of large-scale network intervention for guiding excitatory point processes, such as infectious disease spread or traffic congestion control. Our model-based reinforcement learning utilizes neural ODEs to capture how the networked excitatory point processes will evolve subject to the time-varying changes in network topology. Our approach incorporates Gradient-Descent based Model Predictive Control (GD-MPC), offering policy flexibility to accommodate prior knowledge and constraints. To address the intricacies of planning and overcome the high dimensionality inherent to such decision-making problems, we design an Amortize Network Interventions (ANI) framework, allowing for the pooling of optimal policies from history and other contexts, while ensuring a permutation equivalent property. This property enables efficient knowledge transfer and sharing across diverse contexts. Our approach has broad applications, from curbing infectious disease spread to reducing carbon emissions through traffic light optimization, and thus has the potential to address critical societal and environmental challenges.

Earth observation is a fundamental tool for monitoring the evolution of land use in specific areas of interest. Observing and precisely defining change, in this context, requires both time-series data and pixel-wise segmentations. To that end, we propose the DynamicEarthNet dataset that consists of daily, multi-spectral satellite observations of 75 selected areas of interest distributed over the globe with imagery from Planet Labs. These observations are paired with pixel-wise monthly semantic segmentation labels of 7 land use and land cover (LULC) classes. DynamicEarthNet is the first dataset that provides this unique combination of daily measurements and high-quality labels. In our experiments, we compare several established baselines that either utilize the daily observations as additional training data (semi-supervised learning) or multiple observations at once (spatio-temporal learning) as a point of reference for future research. Finally, we propose a new evaluation metric SCS that addresses the specific challenges associated with time-series semantic change segmentation. The data is available at: https://mediatum.ub.tum.de/1650201.

Recent years have witnessed remarkable advances in spatiotemporal predictive learning, with methods incorporating auxiliary inputs, complex neural architectures, and sophisticated training strategies. While SimVP has introduced a simpler, CNN-based baseline for this task, it still relies on heavy Unet-like architectures for spatial and temporal modeling, which still suffers from high complexity and computational overhead. In this paper, we propose SimVPv2, a streamlined model that eliminates the need for Unet architectures and demonstrates that plain stacks of convolutional layers, enhanced with an efficient Gated Spatiotemporal Attention mechanism, can deliver state-of-the-art performance. SimVPv2 not only simplifies the model architecture but also improves both performance and computational efficiency. On the standard Moving MNIST benchmark, SimVPv2 achieves superior performance compared to SimVP, with fewer FLOPs, about half the training time, and 60% faster inference efficiency. Extensive experiments across eight diverse datasets, including real-world tasks such as traffic forecasting and climate prediction, further demonstrate that SimVPv2 offers a powerful yet straightforward solution, achieving robust generalization across various spatiotemporal learning scenarios. We believe the proposed SimVPv2 can serve as a solid baseline to benefit the spatiotemporal predictive learning community.

Medical images and radiology reports are crucial for diagnosing medical conditions, highlighting the importance of quantitative analysis for clinical decision-making. However, the diversity and cross-source heterogeneity of these data challenge the generalizability of current data-mining methods. Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have recently transformed many domains, significantly affecting the medical field. Notably, Gemini-Vision-series (Gemini) and GPT-4-series (GPT-4) models have epitomized a paradigm shift in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) for computer vision, showcasing their potential in the biomedical domain. In this study, we evaluated the performance of the Gemini, GPT-4, and 4 popular large models for an exhaustive evaluation across 14 medical imaging datasets, including 5 medical imaging categories (dermatology, radiology, dentistry, ophthalmology, and endoscopy), and 3 radiology report datasets. The investigated tasks encompass disease classification, lesion segmentation, anatomical localization, disease diagnosis, report generation, and lesion detection. Our experimental results demonstrated that Gemini-series models excelled in report generation and lesion detection but faces challenges in disease classification and anatomical localization. Conversely, GPT-series models exhibited proficiency in lesion segmentation and anatomical localization but encountered difficulties in disease diagnosis and lesion detection. Additionally, both the Gemini series and GPT series contain models that have demonstrated commendable generation efficiency. While both models hold promise in reducing physician workload, alleviating pressure on limited healthcare resources, and fostering collaboration between clinical practitioners and artificial intelligence technologies, substantial enhancements and comprehensive validations remain imperative before clinical deployment.

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) provides high spatial resolution and excellent soft-tissue contrast without using harmful ionising radiation. Dynamic MRI is an essential tool for interventions to visualise movements or changes of the target organ. However, such MRI acquisition with high temporal resolution suffers from limited spatial resolution - also known as the spatio-temporal trade-off of dynamic MRI. Several approaches, including deep learning based super-resolution approaches, have been proposed to mitigate this trade-off. Nevertheless, such an approach typically aims to super-resolve each time-point separately, treating them as individual volumes. This research addresses the problem by creating a deep learning model which attempts to learn both spatial and temporal relationships. A modified 3D UNet model, DDoS-UNet, is proposed - which takes the low-resolution volume of the current time-point along with a prior image volume. Initially, the network is supplied with a static high-resolution planning scan as the prior image along with the low-resolution input to super-resolve the first time-point. Then it continues step-wise by using the super-resolved time-points as the prior image while super-resolving the subsequent time-points. The model performance was tested with 3D dynamic data that was undersampled to different in-plane levels. The proposed network achieved an average SSIM value of 0.951pm0.017 while reconstructing the lowest resolution data (i.e. only 4\% of the k-space acquired) - which could result in a theoretical acceleration factor of 25. The proposed approach can be used to reduce the required scan-time while achieving high spatial resolution.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models that were initially proposed for realistic image generation have recently shown success in various perception tasks (e.g., object detection and image segmentation) and are increasingly gaining attention in computer vision. However, extending such models to multi-frame human pose estimation is non-trivial due to the presence of the additional temporal dimension in videos. More importantly, learning representations that focus on keypoint regions is crucial for accurate localization of human joints. Nevertheless, the adaptation of the diffusion-based methods remains unclear on how to achieve such objective. In this paper, we present DiffPose, a novel diffusion architecture that formulates video-based human pose estimation as a conditional heatmap generation problem. First, to better leverage temporal information, we propose SpatioTemporal Representation Learner which aggregates visual evidences across frames and uses the resulting features in each denoising step as a condition. In addition, we present a mechanism called Lookup-based MultiScale Feature Interaction that determines the correlations between local joints and global contexts across multiple scales. This mechanism generates delicate representations that focus on keypoint regions. Altogether, by extending diffusion models, we show two unique characteristics from DiffPose on pose estimation task: (i) the ability to combine multiple sets of pose estimates to improve prediction accuracy, particularly for challenging joints, and (ii) the ability to adjust the number of iterative steps for feature refinement without retraining the model. DiffPose sets new state-of-the-art results on three benchmarks: PoseTrack2017, PoseTrack2018, and PoseTrack21.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

Analyzing both temporal and spatial patterns for an accurate forecasting model for financial time series forecasting is a challenge due to the complex nature of temporal-spatial dynamics: time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary as time goes by. Inspired by the successful applications of deep learning, we propose a new model to resolve the issues of forecasting household leverage in China. Our solution consists of multiple RNN-based layers and an attention layer: each RNN-based layer automatically learns the temporal pattern of a specific series with multivariate exogenous series, and then the attention layer learns the spatial correlative weight and obtains the global representations simultaneously. The results show that the new approach can capture the temporal-spatial dynamics of household leverage well and get more accurate and solid predictive results. More, the simulation also studies show that clustering and choosing correlative series are necessary to obtain accurate forecasting results.

Objective: Electroencephalography signals are recorded as a multidimensional dataset. We propose a new framework based on the augmented covariance extracted from an autoregressive model to improve motor imagery classification. Methods: From the autoregressive model can be derived the Yule-Walker equations, which show the emergence of a symmetric positive definite matrix: the augmented covariance matrix. The state-of the art for classifying covariance matrices is based on Riemannian Geometry. A fairly natural idea is therefore to extend the standard approach using these augmented covariance matrices. The methodology for creating the augmented covariance matrix shows a natural connection with the delay embedding theorem proposed by Takens for dynamical systems. Such an embedding method is based on the knowledge of two parameters: the delay and the embedding dimension, respectively related to the lag and the order of the autoregressive model. This approach provides new methods to compute the hyper-parameters in addition to standard grid search. Results: The augmented covariance matrix performed noticeably better than any state-of-the-art methods. We will test our approach on several datasets and several subjects using the MOABB framework, using both within-session and cross-session evaluation. Conclusion: The improvement in results is due to the fact that the augmented covariance matrix incorporates not only spatial but also temporal information, incorporating nonlinear components of the signal through an embedding procedure, which allows the leveraging of dynamical systems algorithms. Significance: These results extend the concepts and the results of the Riemannian distance based classification algorithm.

With the increasing availability of wearable devices, photoplethysmography (PPG) has emerged as a promising non-invasive tool for monitoring human hemodynamics. We propose a deep learning framework to estimate vascular age (AI-vascular age) from PPG signals, incorporating a distribution-aware loss to address biases caused by imbalanced data. The model was developed using data from the UK Biobank (UKB), with 98,672 participants in the development cohort and 113,559 participants (144,683 data pairs) for clinical evaluation. After adjusting for key confounders, individuals with a vascular age gap (AI-vascular age minus calendar age) exceeding 9 years had a significantly higher risk of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) (HR = 2.37, p < 0.005) and secondary outcomes, including diabetes (HR = 2.69, p < 0.005), hypertension (HR = 2.88, p < 0.005), coronary heart disease (HR = 2.20, p < 0.005), heart failure (HR = 2.15, p < 0.005), myocardial infarction (HR = 2.51, p < 0.005), stroke (HR = 2.55, p < 0.005), and all-cause mortality (HR = 2.51, p < 0.005). Conversely, participants with a vascular age gap below -9 years exhibited a significantly lower incidence of these outcomes. We further evaluated the longitudinal applicability of AI-vascular age using serial PPG data from the UKB, demonstrating its value in risk stratification by leveraging AI-vascular age at two distinct time points to predict future MACCE incidence. External validation was performed on a MIMIC-III-derived cohort (n = 2,343), where each one-year increase in vascular age gap was significantly associated with elevated in-hospital mortality risk (OR = 1.02, p < 0.005). In conclusion, our study establishes AI-vascular age as a novel, non-invasive digital biomarker for cardiovascular health assessment.

We present a large-scale study on unsupervised spatiotemporal representation learning from videos. With a unified perspective on four recent image-based frameworks, we study a simple objective that can easily generalize all these methods to space-time. Our objective encourages temporally-persistent features in the same video, and in spite of its simplicity, it works surprisingly well across: (i) different unsupervised frameworks, (ii) pre-training datasets, (iii) downstream datasets, and (iv) backbone architectures. We draw a series of intriguing observations from this study, e.g., we discover that encouraging long-spanned persistency can be effective even if the timespan is 60 seconds. In addition to state-of-the-art results in multiple benchmarks, we report a few promising cases in which unsupervised pre-training can outperform its supervised counterpart. Code is made available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/SlowFast

The causalimages R package enables causal inference with image and image sequence data, providing new tools for integrating novel data sources like satellite and bio-medical imagery into the study of cause and effect. One set of functions enables image-based causal inference analyses. For example, one key function decomposes treatment effect heterogeneity by images using an interpretable Bayesian framework. This allows for determining which types of images or image sequences are most responsive to interventions. A second modeling function allows researchers to control for confounding using images. The package also allows investigators to produce embeddings that serve as vector summaries of the image or video content. Finally, infrastructural functions are also provided, such as tools for writing large-scale image and image sequence data as sequentialized byte strings for more rapid image analysis. causalimages therefore opens new capabilities for causal inference in R, letting researchers use informative imagery in substantive analyses in a fast and accessible manner.

Electrocardiograms (ECG) are widely employed as a diagnostic tool for monitoring electrical signals originating from a heart. Recent machine learning research efforts have focused on the application of screening various diseases using ECG signals. However, adapting to the application of screening disease is challenging in that labeled ECG data are limited. Achieving general representation through self-supervised learning (SSL) is a well-known approach to overcome the scarcity of labeled data; however, a naive application of SSL to ECG data, without considering the spatial-temporal relationships inherent in ECG signals, may yield suboptimal results. In this paper, we introduce ST-MEM (Spatio-Temporal Masked Electrocardiogram Modeling), designed to learn spatio-temporal features by reconstructing masked 12-lead ECG data. ST-MEM outperforms other SSL baseline methods in various experimental settings for arrhythmia classification tasks. Moreover, we demonstrate that ST-MEM is adaptable to various lead combinations. Through quantitative and qualitative analysis, we show a spatio-temporal relationship within ECG data. Our code is available at https://github.com/bakqui/ST-MEM.

Multimodal pathology-genomic analysis is critical for cancer survival prediction. However, existing approaches predominantly integrate formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) slides with genomic data, while neglecting the availability of other preservation slides, such as Fresh Froze (FF) slides. Moreover, as the high-resolution spatial nature of pathology data tends to dominate the cross-modality fusion process, it hinders effective multimodal fusion and leads to modality imbalance challenges between pathology and genomics. These methods also typically require complete data modalities, limiting their clinical applicability with incomplete modalities, such as missing either pathology or genomic data. In this paper, we propose a multimodal survival prediction framework that leverages hypergraph learning to effectively integrate multi-WSI information and cross-modality interactions between pathology slides and genomics data while addressing modality imbalance. In addition, we introduce a memory mechanism that stores previously learned paired pathology-genomic features and dynamically compensates for incomplete modalities. Experiments on five TCGA datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms advanced methods by over 2.3% in C-Index. Under incomplete modality scenarios, our approach surpasses pathology-only (3.3%) and gene-only models (7.9%). Code: https://github.com/MCPathology/M2Surv

Understanding how deep learning models predict oncology patient risk can provide critical insights into disease progression, support clinical decision-making, and pave the way for trustworthy and data-driven precision medicine. Building on recent advances in the spatial modeling of the tumor microenvironment using graph neural networks, we present an explainable cell graph (xCG) approach for survival prediction. We validate our model on a public cohort of imaging mass cytometry (IMC) data for 416 cases of lung adenocarcinoma. We explain survival predictions in terms of known phenotypes on the cell level by computing risk attributions over cell graphs, for which we propose an efficient grid-based layer-wise relevance propagation (LRP) method. Our ablation studies highlight the importance of incorporating the cancer stage and model ensembling to improve the quality of risk estimates. Our xCG method, together with the IMC data, is made publicly available to support further research.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant effort has gone into developing ML-driven epidemic forecasting techniques. However, benchmarks do not exist to claim if a new AI/ML technique is better than the existing ones. The "covid-forecast-hub" is a collection of more than 30 teams, including us, that submit their forecasts weekly to the CDC. It is not possible to declare whether one method is better than the other using those forecasts because each team's submission may correspond to different techniques over the period and involve human interventions as the teams are continuously changing/tuning their approach. Such forecasts may be considered "human-expert" forecasts and do not qualify as AI/ML approaches, although they can be used as an indicator of human expert performance. We are interested in supporting AI/ML research in epidemic forecasting which can lead to scalable forecasting without human intervention. Which modeling technique, learning strategy, and data pre-processing technique work well for epidemic forecasting is still an open problem. To help advance the state-of-the-art AI/ML applied to epidemiology, a benchmark with a collection of performance points is needed and the current "state-of-the-art" techniques need to be identified. We propose EpiBench a platform consisting of community-driven benchmarks for AI/ML applied to epidemic forecasting to standardize the challenge with a uniform evaluation protocol. In this paper, we introduce a prototype of EpiBench which is currently running and accepting submissions for the task of forecasting COVID-19 cases and deaths in the US states and We demonstrate that we can utilize the prototype to develop an ensemble relying on fully automated epidemic forecasts (no human intervention) that reaches human-expert level ensemble currently being used by the CDC.

Gait disorders are commonly observed in older adults, who frequently experience various issues related to walking. Additionally, researchers and clinicians extensively investigate mobility related to gait in typically and atypically developing children, athletes, and individuals with orthopedic and neurological disorders. Effective gait analysis enables the understanding of the causal mechanisms of mobility and balance control of patients, the development of tailored treatment plans to improve mobility, the reduction of fall risk, and the tracking of rehabilitation progress. However, analyzing gait data is a complex task due to the multivariate nature of the data, the large volume of information to be interpreted, and the technical skills required. Existing tools for gait analysis are often limited to specific patient groups (e.g., cerebral palsy), only handle a specific subset of tasks in the entire workflow, and are not openly accessible. To address these shortcomings, we conducted a requirements assessment with gait practitioners (e.g., researchers, clinicians) via surveys and identified key components of the workflow, including (1) data processing and (2) data analysis and visualization. Based on the findings, we designed VIGMA, an open-access visual analytics framework integrated with computational notebooks and a Python library, to meet the identified requirements. Notably, the framework supports analytical capabilities for assessing disease progression and for comparing multiple patient groups. We validated the framework through usage scenarios with experts specializing in gait and mobility rehabilitation. VIGMA is available at https://github.com/komar41/VIGMA.

The COVID-19 pandemic presents global challenges transcending boundaries of country, race, religion, and economy. The current gold standard method for COVID-19 detection is the reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing. However, this method is expensive, time-consuming, and violates social distancing. Also, as the pandemic is expected to stay for a while, there is a need for an alternate diagnosis tool which overcomes these limitations, and is deployable at a large scale. The prominent symptoms of COVID-19 include cough and breathing difficulties. We foresee that respiratory sounds, when analyzed using machine learning techniques, can provide useful insights, enabling the design of a diagnostic tool. Towards this, the paper presents an early effort in creating (and analyzing) a database, called Coswara, of respiratory sounds, namely, cough, breath, and voice. The sound samples are collected via worldwide crowdsourcing using a website application. The curated dataset is released as open access. As the pandemic is evolving, the data collection and analysis is a work in progress. We believe that insights from analysis of Coswara can be effective in enabling sound based technology solutions for point-of-care diagnosis of respiratory infection, and in the near future this can help to diagnose COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need for low-cost, scalable approaches to measuring contactless vital signs, either during initial triage at a healthcare facility or virtual telemedicine visits. Remote photoplethysmography (rPPG) can accurately estimate heart rate (HR) when applied to close-up videos of healthy volunteers in well-lit laboratory settings. However, results from such highly optimized laboratory studies may not be readily translated to healthcare settings. One significant barrier to the practical application of rPPG in health care is the accurate localization of the region of interest (ROI). Clinical or telemedicine visits may involve sub-optimal lighting, movement artifacts, variable camera angle, and subject distance. This paper presents an rPPG ROI selection method based on 3D facial landmarks and patient head yaw angle. We then demonstrate the robustness of this ROI selection method when coupled to the Plane-Orthogonal-to-Skin (POS) rPPG method when applied to videos of patients presenting to an Emergency Department for respiratory complaints. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach in improving the accuracy and robustness of rPPG in a challenging clinical environment.

Modeling multivariate time series is a well-established problem with a wide range of applications from healthcare to financial markets. Traditional State Space Models (SSMs) are classical approaches for univariate time series modeling due to their simplicity and expressive power to represent linear dependencies. They, however, have fundamentally limited expressive power to capture non-linear dependencies, are slow in practice, and fail to model the inter-variate information flow. Despite recent attempts to improve the expressive power of SSMs by using deep structured SSMs, the existing methods are either limited to univariate time series, fail to model complex patterns (e.g., seasonal patterns), fail to dynamically model the dependencies of variate and time dimensions, and/or are input-independent. We present Chimera that uses two input-dependent 2-D SSM heads with different discretization processes to learn long-term progression and seasonal patterns. To improve the efficiency of complex 2D recurrence, we present a fast training using a new 2-dimensional parallel selective scan. We further present and discuss 2-dimensional Mamba and Mamba-2 as the spacial cases of our 2D SSM. Our experimental evaluation shows the superior performance of Chimera on extensive and diverse benchmarks, including ECG and speech time series classification, long-term and short-term time series forecasting, and time series anomaly detection.

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

Quantitative susceptibility maps from magnetic resonance images can provide both prognostic and diagnostic information in multiple sclerosis, a neurodegenerative disease characterized by the formation of lesions in white matter brain tissue. In particular, susceptibility maps provide adequate contrast to distinguish between "rim" lesions, surrounded by deposited paramagnetic iron, and "non-rim" lesion types. These paramagnetic rim lesions (PRLs) are an emerging biomarker in multiple sclerosis. Much effort has been devoted to both detection and segmentation of such lesions to monitor longitudinal change. As paramagnetic rim lesions are rare, addressing this problem requires confronting the class imbalance between rim and non-rim lesions. We produce synthetic quantitative susceptibility maps of paramagnetic rim lesions and show that inclusion of such synthetic data improves classifier performance and provide a multi-channel extension to generate accompanying contrasts and probabilistic segmentation maps. We exploit the projection capability of our trained generative network to demonstrate a novel denoising approach that allows us to train on ambiguous rim cases and substantially increase the minority class. We show that both synthetic lesion synthesis and our proposed rim lesion label denoising method best approximate the unseen rim lesion distribution and improve detection in a clinically interpretable manner. We release our code and generated data at https://github.com/agr78/PRLx-GAN upon publication.

Spatio-temporal consistency is a critical research topic in video generation. A qualified generated video segment must ensure plot plausibility and coherence while maintaining visual consistency of objects and scenes across varying viewpoints. Prior research, especially in open-source projects, primarily focuses on either temporal or spatial consistency, or their basic combination, such as appending a description of a camera movement after a prompt without constraining the outcomes of this movement. However, camera movement may introduce new objects to the scene or eliminate existing ones, thereby overlaying and affecting the preceding narrative. Especially in videos with numerous camera movements, the interplay between multiple plots becomes increasingly complex. This paper introduces and examines integral spatio-temporal consistency, considering the synergy between plot progression and camera techniques, and the long-term impact of prior content on subsequent generation. Our research encompasses dataset construction through to the development of the model. Initially, we constructed a DropletVideo-10M dataset, which comprises 10 million videos featuring dynamic camera motion and object actions. Each video is annotated with an average caption of 206 words, detailing various camera movements and plot developments. Following this, we developed and trained the DropletVideo model, which excels in preserving spatio-temporal coherence during video generation. The DropletVideo dataset and model are accessible at https://dropletx.github.io.

With a 676% growth rate in HIV incidence between 2010 and 2021, the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the Philippines is the one that is spreading the quickest in the western Pacific. Although the full effects of COVID-19 on HIV services and development are still unknown, it is predicted that such disruptions could lead to a significant increase in HIV casualties. Therefore, the nation needs some modeling and forecasting techniques to foresee the spread pattern and enhance the governments prevention, treatment, testing, and care program. In this study, the researcher uses Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network to forecast time series during the period when the COVID-19 pandemic strikes the nation, using statistics taken from the HIV/AIDS and ART Registry of the Philippines. After training, validation, and testing of data, the study finds that the predicted cumulative cases in the nation by 2030 will reach 145,273. Additionally, there is very little difference between observed and anticipated HIV epidemic levels, as evidenced by reduced RMSE, MAE, and MAPE values as well as a greater coefficient of determination. Further research revealed that the Philippines seems far from achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3 of Project 2030 due to an increase in the nations rate of new HIV infections. Despite the detrimental effects of COVID-19 spread on HIV/AIDS efforts nationwide, the Philippine government, under the Marcos administration, must continue to adhere to the United Nations 90-90-90 targets by enhancing its ART program and ensuring that all vital health services are readily accessible and available.

Postprandial hyperglycemia, marked by the blood glucose level exceeding the normal range after meals, is a critical indicator of progression toward type 2 diabetes in prediabetic and healthy individuals. A key metric for understanding blood glucose dynamics after eating is the postprandial area under the curve (PAUC). Predicting PAUC in advance based on a person's diet and activity level and explaining what affects postprandial blood glucose could allow an individual to adjust their lifestyle accordingly to maintain normal glucose levels. In this paper, we propose GlucoLens, an explainable machine learning approach to predict PAUC and hyperglycemia from diet, activity, and recent glucose patterns. We conducted a five-week user study with 10 full-time working individuals to develop and evaluate the computational model. Our machine learning model takes multimodal data including fasting glucose, recent glucose, recent activity, and macronutrient amounts, and provides an interpretable prediction of the postprandial glucose pattern. Our extensive analyses of the collected data revealed that the trained model achieves a normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) of 0.123. On average, GlucoLense with a Random Forest backbone provides a 16% better result than the baseline models. Additionally, GlucoLens predicts hyperglycemia with an accuracy of 74% and recommends different options to help avoid hyperglycemia through diverse counterfactual explanations. Code available: https://github.com/ab9mamun/GlucoLens.

Recent advances in multi-modal algorithms have driven and been driven by the increasing availability of large image-text datasets, leading to significant strides in various fields, including computational pathology. However, in most existing medical image-text datasets, the text typically provides high-level summaries that may not sufficiently describe sub-tile regions within a large pathology image. For example, an image might cover an extensive tissue area containing cancerous and healthy regions, but the accompanying text might only specify that this image is a cancer slide, lacking the nuanced details needed for in-depth analysis. In this study, we introduce STimage-1K4M, a novel dataset designed to bridge this gap by providing genomic features for sub-tile images. STimage-1K4M contains 1,149 images derived from spatial transcriptomics data, which captures gene expression information at the level of individual spatial spots within a pathology image. Specifically, each image in the dataset is broken down into smaller sub-image tiles, with each tile paired with 15,000-30,000 dimensional gene expressions. With 4,293,195 pairs of sub-tile images and gene expressions, STimage-1K4M offers unprecedented granularity, paving the way for a wide range of advanced research in multi-modal data analysis an innovative applications in computational pathology, and beyond.

Spatio-Temporal Graph (STG) forecasting is a fundamental task in many real-world applications. Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks have emerged as the most popular method for STG forecasting, but they often struggle with temporal out-of-distribution (OoD) issues and dynamic spatial causation. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called CaST to tackle these two challenges via causal treatments. Concretely, leveraging a causal lens, we first build a structural causal model to decipher the data generation process of STGs. To handle the temporal OoD issue, we employ the back-door adjustment by a novel disentanglement block to separate invariant parts and temporal environments from input data. Moreover, we utilize the front-door adjustment and adopt the Hodge-Laplacian operator for edge-level convolution to model the ripple effect of causation. Experiments results on three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of CaST, which consistently outperforms existing methods with good interpretability.

Accuracy and timeliness are indeed often conflicting goals in prediction tasks. Premature predictions may yield a higher rate of false alarms, whereas delaying predictions to gather more information can render them too late to be useful. In applications such as wildfires, crimes, and traffic jams, timely forecasting are vital for safeguarding human life and property. Consequently, finding a balance between accuracy and timeliness is crucial. In this paper, we propose an early spatio-temporal forecasting model based on Multi-Objective reinforcement learning that can either implement an optimal policy given a preference or infer the preference based on a small number of samples. The model addresses two primary challenges: 1) enhancing the accuracy of early forecasting and 2) providing the optimal policy for determining the most suitable prediction time for each area. Our method demonstrates superior performance on three large-scale real-world datasets, surpassing existing methods in early spatio-temporal forecasting tasks.

Generative models have shown great promise in generating 3D geometric systems, which is a fundamental problem in many natural science domains such as molecule and protein design. However, existing approaches only operate on static structures, neglecting the fact that physical systems are always dynamic in nature. In this work, we propose geometric trajectory diffusion models (GeoTDM), the first diffusion model for modeling the temporal distribution of 3D geometric trajectories. Modeling such distribution is challenging as it requires capturing both the complex spatial interactions with physical symmetries and temporal correspondence encapsulated in the dynamics. We theoretically justify that diffusion models with equivariant temporal kernels can lead to density with desired symmetry, and develop a novel transition kernel leveraging SE(3)-equivariant spatial convolution and temporal attention. Furthermore, to induce an expressive trajectory distribution for conditional generation, we introduce a generalized learnable geometric prior into the forward diffusion process to enhance temporal conditioning. We conduct extensive experiments on both unconditional and conditional generation in various scenarios, including physical simulation, molecular dynamics, and pedestrian motion. Empirical results on a wide suite of metrics demonstrate that GeoTDM can generate realistic geometric trajectories with significantly higher quality.

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly when considering exponential or non-parametric kernels. Although non-parametric kernels are an option, such models require large datasets. While exponential kernels are more data efficient and relevant for specific applications where events immediately trigger more events, they are ill-suited for applications where latencies need to be estimated, such as in neuroscience. This work aims to offer an efficient solution to TPP inference using general parametric kernels with finite support. The developed solution consists of a fast ell_2 gradient-based solver leveraging a discretized version of the events. After theoretically supporting the use of discretization, the statistical and computational efficiency of the novel approach is demonstrated through various numerical experiments. Finally, the method's effectiveness is evaluated by modeling the occurrence of stimuli-induced patterns from brain signals recorded with magnetoencephalography (MEG). Given the use of general parametric kernels, results show that the proposed approach leads to an improved estimation of pattern latency than the state-of-the-art.

Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common musculoskeletal disease, which has no cure. Knee OA (KOA) is one of the highest causes of disability worldwide, and it costs billions of United States dollars to the global community. Prediction of KOA progression has been of high interest to the community for years, as it can advance treatment development through more efficient clinical trials and improve patient outcomes through more efficient healthcare utilization. Existing approaches for predicting KOA, however, are predominantly static, i.e. consider data from a single time point to predict progression many years into the future, and knee level, i.e. consider progression in a single joint only. Due to these and related reasons, these methods fail to deliver the level of predictive performance, which is sufficient to result in cost savings and better patient outcomes. Collecting extensive data from all patients on a regular basis could address the issue, but it is limited by the high cost at a population level. In this work, we propose to go beyond static prediction models in OA, and bring a novel Active Sensing (AS) approach, designed to dynamically follow up patients with the objective of maximizing the number of informative data acquisitions, while minimizing their total cost over a period of time. Our approach is based on Reinforcement Learning (RL), and it leverages a novel reward function designed specifically for AS of disease progression in more than one part of a human body. Our method is end-to-end, relies on multi-modal Deep Learning, and requires no human input at inference time. Throughout an exhaustive experimental evaluation, we show that using RL can provide a higher monetary benefit when compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

The COVID-19 pandemic has accentuated socioeconomic disparities across various racial and ethnic groups in the United States. While previous studies have utilized traditional survey methods like the Household Pulse Survey (HPS) to elucidate these disparities, this paper explores the role of social media platforms in both highlighting and addressing these challenges. Drawing from real-time data sourced from Twitter, we analyzed language patterns related to four major types of adverse experiences: loss of employment income (LI), food scarcity (FS), housing insecurity (HI), and unmet needs for mental health services (UM). We first formulate a sparsity optimization problem that extracts low-level language features from social media data sources. Second, we propose novel constraints on feature similarity exploiting prior knowledge about the similarity of the language patterns among the adverse experiences. The proposed problem is challenging to solve due to the non-convexity objective and non-smoothness penalties. We develop an algorithm based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) framework to solve the proposed formulation. Extensive experiments and comparisons to other models on real-world social media and the detection of adverse experiences justify the efficacy of our model.

Recent advancements in prompt-based medical image segmentation have enabled clinicians to identify tumors using simple input like bounding boxes or text prompts. However, existing methods face challenges when doctors need to interact through natural language or when position reasoning is required - understanding spatial relationships between anatomical structures and pathologies. We present PRS-Med, a framework that integrates vision-language models with segmentation capabilities to generate both accurate segmentation masks and corresponding spatial reasoning outputs. Additionally, we introduce the MMRS dataset (Multimodal Medical in Positional Reasoning Segmentation), which provides diverse, spatially-grounded question-answer pairs to address the lack of position reasoning data in medical imaging. PRS-Med demonstrates superior performance across six imaging modalities (CT, MRI, X-ray, ultrasound, endoscopy, RGB), significantly outperforming state-of-the-art methods in both segmentation accuracy and position reasoning. Our approach enables intuitive doctor-system interaction through natural language, facilitating more efficient diagnoses. Our dataset pipeline, model, and codebase will be released to foster further research in spatially-aware multimodal reasoning for medical applications.

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are personalized, adaptive, multi-stage treatment plans that adapt treatment decisions both to an individual's initial features and to intermediate outcomes and features at each subsequent stage, which are affected by decisions in prior stages. Examples include personalized first- and second-line treatments of chronic conditions like diabetes, cancer, and depression, which adapt to patient response to first-line treatment, disease progression, and individual characteristics. While existing literature mostly focuses on estimating the optimal DTR from offline data such as from sequentially randomized trials, we study the problem of developing the optimal DTR in an online manner, where the interaction with each individual affect both our cumulative reward and our data collection for future learning. We term this the DTR bandit problem. We propose a novel algorithm that, by carefully balancing exploration and exploitation, is guaranteed to achieve rate-optimal regret when the transition and reward models are linear. We demonstrate our algorithm and its benefits both in synthetic experiments and in a case study of adaptive treatment of major depressive disorder using real-world data.

Finding multiple temporal relationships among locations can benefit a bunch of urban applications, such as dynamic offline advertising and smart public transport planning. While some efforts have been made on finding static relationships among locations, little attention is focused on studying time-aware location relationships. Indeed, abundant location-based human activities are time-varying and the availability of these data enables a new paradigm for understanding the dynamic relationships in a period among connective locations. To this end, we propose to study a new problem, namely multi-Temporal relationship inference among locations (Trial for short), where the major challenge is how to integrate dynamic and geographical influence under the relationship sparsity constraint. Specifically, we propose a solution to Trial with a graph learning scheme, which includes a spatially evolving graph neural network (SEENet) with two collaborative components: spatially evolving graph convolution module (SEConv) and spatially evolving self-supervised learning strategy (SE-SSL). SEConv performs the intra-time aggregation and inter-time propagation to capture the multifaceted spatially evolving contexts from the view of location message passing. In addition, SE-SSL designs time-aware self-supervised learning tasks in a global-local manner with additional evolving constraint to enhance the location representation learning and further handle the relationship sparsity. Finally, experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method over several state-of-the-art approaches.

Unprecedented access to multi-temporal satellite imagery has opened new perspectives for a variety of Earth observation tasks. Among them, pixel-precise panoptic segmentation of agricultural parcels has major economic and environmental implications. While researchers have explored this problem for single images, we argue that the complex temporal patterns of crop phenology are better addressed with temporal sequences of images. In this paper, we present the first end-to-end, single-stage method for panoptic segmentation of Satellite Image Time Series (SITS). This module can be combined with our novel image sequence encoding network which relies on temporal self-attention to extract rich and adaptive multi-scale spatio-temporal features. We also introduce PASTIS, the first open-access SITS dataset with panoptic annotations. We demonstrate the superiority of our encoder for semantic segmentation against multiple competing architectures, and set up the first state-of-the-art of panoptic segmentation of SITS. Our implementation and PASTIS are publicly available.

The global ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic remain significant, exerting persistent pressure on nations even three years after its initial outbreak. Deep learning models have shown promise in improving COVID-19 diagnostics but require diverse and larger-scale datasets to improve performance. In this paper, we introduce COVIDx CXR-4, an expanded multi-institutional open-source benchmark dataset for chest X-ray image-based computer-aided COVID-19 diagnostics. COVIDx CXR-4 expands significantly on the previous COVIDx CXR-3 dataset by increasing the total patient cohort size by greater than 2.66 times, resulting in 84,818 images from 45,342 patients across multiple institutions. We provide extensive analysis on the diversity of the patient demographic, imaging metadata, and disease distributions to highlight potential dataset biases. To the best of the authors' knowledge, COVIDx CXR-4 is the largest and most diverse open-source COVID-19 CXR dataset and is made publicly available as part of an open initiative to advance research to aid clinicians against the COVID-19 disease.

Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of the visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theory, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. The precision weighting mechanism posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower precision, contributing to the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM), which demonstrate the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models and weight the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights effectively estimate the data predictability. We apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the United Kindom precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models by providing more proficient forecasting.

Spatial-temporal forecasting and imputation are important for real-world intelligent systems. Most existing methods are tailored for individual forecasting or imputation tasks but are not designed for both. Additionally, they are less effective for zero-shot and few-shot learning. While pre-trained language model (PLM) have exhibited strong pattern recognition and reasoning abilities across various tasks, including few-shot and zero-shot learning, their applications in spatial-temporal data understanding has been constrained by insufficient modeling of complex correlations such as the temporal correlations, spatial connectivity, non-pairwise and high-order spatial-temporal correlations within data. In this paper, we propose STD-PLM for understanding both spatial and temporal properties of Spatial-Temporal Data with PLM, which is capable of implementing both spatial-temporal forecasting and imputation tasks. STD-PLM understands spatial-temporal correlations via explicitly designed spatial and temporal tokenizers. Topology-aware node embeddings are designed for PLM to comprehend and exploit the topology structure of data in inductive manner. Furthermore, to mitigate the efficiency issues introduced by the PLM, we design a sandglass attention module (SGA) combined with a specific constrained loss function, which significantly improves the model's efficiency while ensuring performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that STD-PLM exhibits competitive performance and generalization capabilities across the forecasting and imputation tasks on various datasets. Moreover, STD-PLM achieves promising results on both few-shot and zero-shot tasks.The code is made available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/STD-PLM-F3BA{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/STD-PLM-F3BA}

With the rapid development of COVID-19 into a global pandemic, there is an ever more urgent need for cheap, fast and reliable tools that can assist physicians in diagnosing COVID-19. Medical imaging such as CT can take a key role in complementing conventional diagnostic tools from molecular biology, and, using deep learning techniques, several automatic systems were demonstrated promising performances using CT or X-ray data. Here, we advocate a more prominent role of point-of-care ultrasound imaging to guide COVID-19 detection. Ultrasound is non-invasive and ubiquitous in medical facilities around the globe. Our contribution is threefold. First, we gather a lung ultrasound (POCUS) dataset consisting of 1103 images (654 COVID-19, 277 bacterial pneumonia and 172 healthy controls), sampled from 64 videos. This dataset was assembled from various online sources, processed specifically for deep learning models and is intended to serve as a starting point for an open-access initiative. Second, we train a deep convolutional neural network (POCOVID-Net) on this 3-class dataset and achieve an accuracy of 89% and, by a majority vote, a video accuracy of 92% . For detecting COVID-19 in particular, the model performs with a sensitivity of 0.96, a specificity of 0.79 and F1-score of 0.92 in a 5-fold cross validation. Third, we provide an open-access web service (POCOVIDScreen) that is available at: https://pocovidscreen.org. The website deploys the predictive model, allowing to perform predictions on ultrasound lung images. In addition, it grants medical staff the option to (bulk) upload their own screenings in order to contribute to the growing public database of pathological lung ultrasound images. Dataset and code are available from: https://github.com/jannisborn/covid19_pocus_ultrasound. NOTE: This preprint is superseded by our paper in Applied Sciences: https://doi.org/10.3390/app11020672

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has significantly altered our lifestyles as we resort to minimize the spread through preventive measures such as social distancing and quarantine. An increasingly worrying aspect is the gap between the exponential disease spread and the delay in adopting preventive measures. This gap is attributed to the lack of awareness about the disease and its preventive measures. Nowadays, social media platforms (ie., Twitter) are frequently used to create awareness about major events, including COVID-19. In this paper, we use Twitter to characterize public awareness regarding COVID-19 by analyzing the information flow in the most affected countries. Towards that, we collect more than 46K trends and 622 Million tweets from the top twenty most affected countries to examine 1) the temporal evolution of COVID-19 related trends, 2) the volume of tweets and recurring topics in those trends, and 3) the user sentiment towards preventive measures. Our results show that countries with a lower pandemic spread generated a higher volume of trends and tweets to expedite the information flow and contribute to public awareness. We also observed that in those countries, the COVID-19 related trends were generated before the sharp increase in the number of cases, indicating a preemptive attempt to notify users about the potential threat. Finally, we noticed that in countries with a lower spread, users had a positive sentiment towards COVID-19 preventive measures. Our measurements and analysis show that effective social media usage can influence public behavior, which can be leveraged to better combat future pandemics.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

Survival prediction is a complicated ordinal regression task that aims to predict the ranking risk of death, which generally benefits from the integration of histology and genomic data. Despite the progress in joint learning from pathology and genomics, existing methods still suffer from challenging issues: 1) Due to the large size of pathological images, it is difficult to effectively represent the gigapixel whole slide images (WSIs). 2) Interactions within tumor microenvironment (TME) in histology are essential for survival analysis. Although current approaches attempt to model these interactions via co-attention between histology and genomic data, they focus on only dense local similarity across modalities, which fails to capture global consistency between potential structures, i.e. TME-related interactions of histology and co-expression of genomic data. To address these challenges, we propose a Multimodal Optimal Transport-based Co-Attention Transformer framework with global structure consistency, in which optimal transport (OT) is applied to match patches of a WSI and genes embeddings for selecting informative patches to represent the gigapixel WSI. More importantly, OT-based co-attention provides a global awareness to effectively capture structural interactions within TME for survival prediction. To overcome high computational complexity of OT, we propose a robust and efficient implementation over micro-batch of WSI patches by approximating the original OT with unbalanced mini-batch OT. Extensive experiments show the superiority of our method on five benchmark datasets compared to the state-of-the-art methods. The code is released.

Chronotype compares individuals' circadian phase to others. It contextualizes mental health risk assessments and detection of social jet lag, which can hamper mental health and cognitive performance. Existing ways of determining chronotypes, such as Dim Light Melatonin Onset (DLMO) or the Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire (MEQ), are limited by being discrete in time and time-intensive to update, meaning they rarely capture real-world variability across time. Chronotyping users based on a daily planner app might augment existing methods to enable assessment continuously and at scale. This paper reports the construction of a supervised binary classifier that attempts to demonstrate the feasibility of this approach. 1,460 registered users from the Owaves app opted in by filling out the MEQ survey between July 14, 2022, and May 1, 2023. 142 met the eligibility criteria. We used multimodal app data from individuals identified as morning and evening types from MEQ data, basing the classifier on app time series data. This included daily timing for 8 main lifestyle activity types: exercise, sleep, social interactions, meal times, relaxation, work, play, and miscellaneous, as defined in the app. The timing of activities showed substantial change across time, as well as heterogeneity by activity type. Our novel chronotyping classifier was able to predict the morningness and eveningness of its users with an ROC AUC of 0.70. Our findings demonstrate the feasibility of chronotype classification from multimodal, real-world app data, while highlighting fundamental challenges to applying discrete and fixed labels to complex, dynamic, multimodal behaviors. Our findings suggest a potential for real-time monitoring of shifts in chronotype specific to different causes (i.e. types of activity), which could feasibly be used to support future, prospective mental health support research.

In this paper, we introduce PredBench, a benchmark tailored for the holistic evaluation of spatio-temporal prediction networks. Despite significant progress in this field, there remains a lack of a standardized framework for a detailed and comparative analysis of various prediction network architectures. PredBench addresses this gap by conducting large-scale experiments, upholding standardized and appropriate experimental settings, and implementing multi-dimensional evaluations. This benchmark integrates 12 widely adopted methods with 15 diverse datasets across multiple application domains, offering extensive evaluation of contemporary spatio-temporal prediction networks. Through meticulous calibration of prediction settings across various applications, PredBench ensures evaluations relevant to their intended use and enables fair comparisons. Moreover, its multi-dimensional evaluation framework broadens the analysis with a comprehensive set of metrics, providing deep insights into the capabilities of models. The findings from our research offer strategic directions for future developments in the field. Our codebase is available at https://github.com/OpenEarthLab/PredBench.

Whole-Slide Image (WSI) is an important tool for evaluating the prognosis of cancer patients. Present WSI-based prognosis studies generally follow a conventional paradigm -- cancer-specific model development -- where one cancer disease corresponds to one model and this model cannot make use of the prognostic knowledge from others. Despite its notable success in recent years, this paradigm has inherent limitations and has always been struggling with practical requirements: (i) scaling to the rare tumor diseases with very limited samples and (ii) benefiting from the generalizable prognostic knowledge in other cancers. To this end, this paper presents the first systematic study on Prognostic Knowledge Transfer in Pathology, called Path-PKT. It comprises three main parts. (1) We curate a large dataset (UNI2-h-DSS) with 13 cancers and use it to evaluate the transferability of prognostic knowledge between different cancers computationally. (2) We design experiments to understand what factors affect knowledge transfer and what causes positive transfers. (3) Motivated by empirical findings, we propose a new baseline approach (MoE-PKT) with a routing mechanism to utilize the generalizable prognostic knowledge in other cancers. Finally, we show the transferability of source models to rare tumor diseases. This study could lay solid foundations for the study of knowledge transfer in WSI-based cancer prognosis. Source code is available at https://github.com/liupei101/Path-PKT.

Spatial computing is a technological advancement that facilitates the seamless integration of devices into the physical environment, resulting in a more natural and intuitive digital world user experience. Spatial computing has the potential to become a significant advancement in the field of computing. From GPS and location-based services to healthcare, spatial computing technologies have influenced and improved our interactions with the digital world. The use of spatial computing in creating interactive digital environments has become increasingly popular and effective. This is explained by its increasing significance among researchers and industrial organisations, which motivated us to conduct this review. This review provides a detailed overview of spatial computing, including its enabling technologies and its impact on various applications. Projects related to spatial computing are also discussed. In this review, we also explored the potential challenges and limitations of spatial computing. Furthermore, we discuss potential solutions and future directions. Overall, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of spatial computing, its enabling technologies, their impact on various applications, emerging challenges, and potential solutions.

A comparison of the distances to the Huanan Seafood Market of early Covid cases with known links to the market versus cases without known links shows results apparently incompatible with a location model lacking proximity ascertainment bias. The sign of the difference instead agrees with a model in which such ascertainment bias is large. In the presence of such bias inferences based on the clustering of case locations become unreliable.

Adherence to prescribed treatments is crucial for individuals with chronic conditions to avoid costly or adverse health outcomes. For certain patient groups, intensive lifestyle interventions are vital for enhancing medication adherence. Accurate forecasting of treatment adherence can open pathways to developing an on-demand intervention tool, enabling timely and personalized support. With the increasing popularity of smartphones and wearables, it is now easier than ever to develop and deploy smart activity monitoring systems. However, effective forecasting systems for treatment adherence based on wearable sensors are still not widely available. We close this gap by proposing Adherence Forecasting and Intervention with Machine Intelligence (AIMI). AIMI is a knowledge-guided adherence forecasting system that leverages smartphone sensors and previous medication history to estimate the likelihood of forgetting to take a prescribed medication. A user study was conducted with 27 participants who took daily medications to manage their cardiovascular diseases. We designed and developed CNN and LSTM-based forecasting models with various combinations of input features and found that LSTM models can forecast medication adherence with an accuracy of 0.932 and an F-1 score of 0.936. Moreover, through a series of ablation studies involving convolutional and recurrent neural network architectures, we demonstrate that leveraging known knowledge about future and personalized training enhances the accuracy of medication adherence forecasting. Code available: https://github.com/ab9mamun/AIMI.

Heatwaves pose significant health risks, particularly due to prolonged exposure to high summer temperatures. Vulnerable groups, especially pedestrians and cyclists on sun-exposed sidewalks, motivate the development of a route planning method that incorporates somatosensory temperature effects through shade ratio consideration. This paper is the first to introduce a pipeline that utilizes segmentation foundation models to extract shaded areas from high-resolution satellite images. These areas are then integrated into a multi-layered road map, enabling users to customize routes based on a balance between distance and shade exposure, thereby enhancing comfort and health during outdoor activities. Specifically, we construct a graph-based representation of the road map, where links indicate connectivity and are updated with shade ratio data for dynamic route planning. This system is already implemented online, with a video demonstration, and will be specifically adapted to assist travelers during the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris.

Four-dimensional computed tomography (4D CT) reconstruction is crucial for capturing dynamic anatomical changes but faces inherent limitations from conventional phase-binning workflows. Current methods discretize temporal resolution into fixed phases with respiratory gating devices, introducing motion misalignment and restricting clinical practicality. In this paper, We propose X^2-Gaussian, a novel framework that enables continuous-time 4D-CT reconstruction by integrating dynamic radiative Gaussian splatting with self-supervised respiratory motion learning. Our approach models anatomical dynamics through a spatiotemporal encoder-decoder architecture that predicts time-varying Gaussian deformations, eliminating phase discretization. To remove dependency on external gating devices, we introduce a physiology-driven periodic consistency loss that learns patient-specific breathing cycles directly from projections via differentiable optimization. Extensive experiments demonstrate state-of-the-art performance, achieving a 9.93 dB PSNR gain over traditional methods and 2.25 dB improvement against prior Gaussian splatting techniques. By unifying continuous motion modeling with hardware-free period learning, X^2-Gaussian advances high-fidelity 4D CT reconstruction for dynamic clinical imaging. Project website at: https://x2-gaussian.github.io/.

Modern neural recording techniques allow neuroscientists to obtain spiking activity of multiple neurons from different brain regions over long time periods, which requires new statistical methods to be developed for understanding structure of the large-scale data. In this paper, we develop a bi-clustering method to cluster the neural spiking activity spatially and temporally, according to their low-dimensional latent structures. The spatial (neuron) clusters are defined by the latent trajectories within each neural population, while the temporal (state) clusters are defined by (populationally) synchronous local linear dynamics shared with different periods. To flexibly extract the bi-clustering structure, we build the model non-parametrically, and develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to sample the posterior distributions of model parameters. Validating our proposed MCMC algorithm through simulations, we find the method can recover unknown parameters and true bi-clustering structures successfully. We then apply the proposed bi-clustering method to multi-regional neural recordings under different experiment settings, where we find that simultaneously considering latent trajectories and spatial-temporal clustering structures can provide us with a more accurate and interpretable result. Overall, the proposed method provides scientific insights for large-scale (counting) time series with elongated recording periods, and it can potentially have application beyond neuroscience.

Glaucoma is the number one cause of irreversible blindness globally. A major challenge for accurate glaucoma detection and progression forecasting is the bottleneck of limited labeled patients with the state-of-the-art (SOTA) 3D retinal imaging data of optical coherence tomography (OCT). To address the data scarcity issue, this paper proposes two solutions. First, we develop a novel generalization-reinforced semi-supervised learning (SSL) model called pseudo supervisor to optimally utilize unlabeled data. Compared with SOTA models, the proposed pseudo supervisor optimizes the policy of predicting pseudo labels with unlabeled samples to improve empirical generalization. Our pseudo supervisor model is evaluated with two clinical tasks consisting of glaucoma detection and progression forecasting. The progression forecasting task is evaluated both unimodally and multimodally. Our pseudo supervisor model demonstrates superior performance than SOTA SSL comparison models. Moreover, our model also achieves the best results on the publicly available LAG fundus dataset. Second, we introduce the Harvard Glaucoma Detection and Progression (Harvard-GDP) Dataset, a multimodal multitask dataset that includes data from 1,000 patients with OCT imaging data, as well as labels for glaucoma detection and progression. This is the largest glaucoma detection dataset with 3D OCT imaging data and the first glaucoma progression forecasting dataset that is publicly available. Detailed sex and racial analysis are provided, which can be used by interested researchers for fairness learning studies. Our released dataset is benchmarked with several SOTA supervised CNN and transformer deep learning models. The dataset and code are made publicly available via https://ophai.hms.harvard.edu/datasets/harvard-gdp1000.

Diffusion models have demonstrated exceptional visual quality in video generation, making them promising for autonomous driving world modeling. However, existing video diffusion-based world models struggle with flexible-length, long-horizon predictions and integrating trajectory planning. This is because conventional video diffusion models rely on global joint distribution modeling of fixed-length frame sequences rather than sequentially constructing localized distributions at each timestep. In this work, we propose Epona, an autoregressive diffusion world model that enables localized spatiotemporal distribution modeling through two key innovations: 1) Decoupled spatiotemporal factorization that separates temporal dynamics modeling from fine-grained future world generation, and 2) Modular trajectory and video prediction that seamlessly integrate motion planning with visual modeling in an end-to-end framework. Our architecture enables high-resolution, long-duration generation while introducing a novel chain-of-forward training strategy to address error accumulation in autoregressive loops. Experimental results demonstrate state-of-the-art performance with 7.4\% FVD improvement and minutes longer prediction duration compared to prior works. The learned world model further serves as a real-time motion planner, outperforming strong end-to-end planners on NAVSIM benchmarks. Code will be publicly available at https://github.com/Kevin-thu/Epona/{https://github.com/Kevin-thu/Epona/}.

Sepsis is a life-threatening host response to infection associated with high mortality, morbidity, and health costs. Its management is highly time-sensitive since each hour of delayed treatment increases mortality due to irreversible organ damage. Meanwhile, despite decades of clinical research, robust biomarkers for sepsis are missing. Therefore, detecting sepsis early by utilizing the affluence of high-resolution intensive care records has become a challenging machine learning problem. Recent advances in deep learning and data mining promise to deliver a powerful set of tools to efficiently address this task. This empirical study proposes two novel approaches for the early detection of sepsis: a deep learning model and a lazy learner based on time series distances. Our deep learning model employs a temporal convolutional network that is embedded in a Multi-task Gaussian Process Adapter framework, making it directly applicable to irregularly-spaced time series data. Our lazy learner, by contrast, is an ensemble approach that employs dynamic time warping. We frame the timely detection of sepsis as a supervised time series classification task. For this, we derive the most recent sepsis definition in an hourly resolution to provide the first fully accessible early sepsis detection environment. Seven hours before sepsis onset, our methods improve area under the precision--recall curve from 0.25 to 0.35/0.40 over the state of the art. This demonstrates that they are well-suited for detecting sepsis in the crucial earlier stages when management is most effective.

Epidemiologists often wish to estimate quantities that are easy to communicate and correspond to the results of realistic public health scenarios. Methods from causal inference can answer these questions. We adopt the language of potential outcomes under Rubin's original Bayesian framework and show that the parametric g-formula is easily amenable to a Bayesian approach. We show that the frequentist properties of the Bayesian g-formula suggest it improves the accuracy of estimates of causal effects in small samples or when data may be sparse. We demonstrate our approach to estimate the effect of environmental tobacco smoke on body mass index z-scores among children aged 4-9 years who were enrolled in a longitudinal birth cohort in New York, USA. We give a general algorithm and supply SAS and Stan code that can be adopted to implement our computational approach in both time-fixed and longitudinal data.

Accurate crop mapping fundamentally relies on modeling multi-scale spatiotemporal patterns, where spatial scales range from individual field textures to landscape-level context, and temporal scales capture both short-term phenological transitions and full growing-season dynamics. Transformer-based remote sensing foundation models (RSFMs) offer promising potential for crop mapping due to their innate ability for unified spatiotemporal processing. However, current RSFMs remain suboptimal for crop mapping: they either employ fixed spatiotemporal windows that ignore the multi-scale nature of crop systems or completely disregard temporal information by focusing solely on spatial patterns. To bridge these gaps, we present AgriFM, a multi-source remote sensing foundation model specifically designed for agricultural crop mapping. Our approach begins by establishing the necessity of simultaneous hierarchical spatiotemporal feature extraction, leading to the development of a modified Video Swin Transformer architecture where temporal down-sampling is synchronized with spatial scaling operations. This modified backbone enables efficient unified processing of long time-series satellite inputs. AgriFM leverages temporally rich data streams from three satellite sources including MODIS, Landsat-8/9 and Sentinel-2, and is pre-trained on a global representative dataset comprising over 25 million image samples supervised by land cover products. The resulting framework incorporates a versatile decoder architecture that dynamically fuses these learned spatiotemporal representations, supporting diverse downstream tasks. Comprehensive evaluations demonstrate AgriFM's superior performance over conventional deep learning approaches and state-of-the-art general-purpose RSFMs across all downstream tasks. Codes will be available at https://github.com/flyakon/AgriFM.

We develop a novel, general and computationally efficient framework, called Divide and Conquer Dynamic Programming (DCDP), for localizing change points in time series data with high-dimensional features. DCDP deploys a class of greedy algorithms that are applicable to a broad variety of high-dimensional statistical models and can enjoy almost linear computational complexity. We investigate the performance of DCDP in three commonly studied change point settings in high dimensions: the mean model, the Gaussian graphical model, and the linear regression model. In all three cases, we derive non-asymptotic bounds for the accuracy of the DCDP change point estimators. We demonstrate that the DCDP procedures consistently estimate the change points with sharp, and in some cases, optimal rates while incurring significantly smaller computational costs than the best available algorithms. Our findings are supported by extensive numerical experiments on both synthetic and real data.

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

This paper explores the advancements and applications of large-scale models in the medical field, with a particular focus on Medical Large Models (MedLMs). These models, encompassing Large Language Models (LLMs), Vision Models, 3D Large Models, and Multimodal Models, are revolutionizing healthcare by enhancing disease prediction, diagnostic assistance, personalized treatment planning, and drug discovery. The integration of graph neural networks in medical knowledge graphs and drug discovery highlights the potential of Large Graph Models (LGMs) in understanding complex biomedical relationships. The study also emphasizes the transformative role of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) and 3D Large Models in medical image analysis, anatomical modeling, and prosthetic design. Despite the challenges, these technologies are setting new benchmarks in medical innovation, improving diagnostic accuracy, and paving the way for personalized healthcare solutions. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the current state and future directions of large models in medicine, underscoring their significance in advancing global health.

Numerous biological and physical processes can be modeled as systems of interacting entities evolving continuously over time, e.g. the dynamics of communicating cells or physical particles. Learning the dynamics of such systems is essential for predicting the temporal evolution of populations across novel samples and unseen environments. Flow-based models allow for learning these dynamics at the population level - they model the evolution of the entire distribution of samples. However, current flow-based models are limited to a single initial population and a set of predefined conditions which describe different dynamics. We argue that multiple processes in natural sciences have to be represented as vector fields on the Wasserstein manifold of probability densities. That is, the change of the population at any moment in time depends on the population itself due to the interactions between samples. In particular, this is crucial for personalized medicine where the development of diseases and their respective treatment response depends on the microenvironment of cells specific to each patient. We propose Meta Flow Matching (MFM), a practical approach to integrating along these vector fields on the Wasserstein manifold by amortizing the flow model over the initial populations. Namely, we embed the population of samples using a Graph Neural Network (GNN) and use these embeddings to train a Flow Matching model. This gives MFM the ability to generalize over the initial distributions unlike previously proposed methods. We demonstrate the ability of MFM to improve prediction of individual treatment responses on a large scale multi-patient single-cell drug screen dataset.

Urgent care clinics and emergency departments around the world periodically suffer from extended wait times beyond patient expectations due to inadequate staffing levels. These delays have been linked with adverse clinical outcomes. Previous research into forecasting demand this domain has mostly used a collection of statistical techniques, with machine learning approaches only now beginning to emerge in recent literature. The forecasting problem for this domain is difficult and has also been complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic which has introduced an additional complexity to this estimation due to typical demand patterns being disrupted. This study explores the ability of machine learning methods to generate accurate patient presentations at two large urgent care clinics located in Auckland, New Zealand. A number of machine learning algorithms were explored in order to determine the most effective technique for this problem domain, with the task of making forecasts of daily patient demand three months in advance. The study also performed an in-depth analysis into the model behaviour in respect to the exploration of which features are most effective at predicting demand and which features are capable of adaptation to the volatility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns. The results showed that ensemble-based methods delivered the most accurate and consistent solutions on average, generating improvements in the range of 23%-27% over the existing in-house methods for estimating the daily demand.

Early detection of gastric cancer, a leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide, remains hampered by the limitations of current diagnostic technologies, leading to high rates of misdiagnosis and missed diagnoses. To address these challenges, we propose an integrated system that synergizes advanced hardware and software technologies to balance speed-accuracy. Our study introduces the One Class Twin Cross Learning (OCT-X) algorithm. Leveraging a novel fast double-threshold grid search strategy (FDT-GS) and a patch-based deep fully convolutional network, OCT-X maximizes diagnostic accuracy through real-time data processing and seamless lesion surveillance. The hardware component includes an all-in-one point-of-care testing (POCT) device with high-resolution imaging sensors, real-time data processing, and wireless connectivity, facilitated by the NI CompactDAQ and LabVIEW software. Our integrated system achieved an unprecedented diagnostic accuracy of 99.70%, significantly outperforming existing models by up to 4.47%, and demonstrated a 10% improvement in multirate adaptability. These findings underscore the potential of OCT-X as well as the integrated system in clinical diagnostics, offering a path toward more accurate, efficient, and less invasive early gastric cancer detection. Future research will explore broader applications, further advancing oncological diagnostics. Code is available at https://github.com/liu37972/Multirate-Location-on-OCT-X-Learning.git.

Spatiotemporal reasoning plays a key role in Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS). Despite advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) and Large Reasoning Models (LRMs), their capacity to reason about complex spatiotemporal signals remains underexplored. This paper proposes a hierarchical SpatioTemporal reAsoning benchmaRK, STARK, to systematically evaluate LLMs across three levels of reasoning complexity: state estimation (e.g., predicting field variables, localizing and tracking events in space and time), spatiotemporal reasoning over states (e.g., inferring spatial-temporal relationships), and world-knowledge-aware reasoning that integrates contextual and domain knowledge (e.g., intent prediction, landmark-aware navigation). We curate 26 distinct spatiotemporal tasks with diverse sensor modalities, comprising 14,552 challenges where models answer directly or by Python Code Interpreter. Evaluating 3 LRMs and 8 LLMs, we find LLMs achieve limited success in tasks requiring geometric reasoning (e.g., multilateration or triangulation), particularly as complexity increases. Surprisingly, LRMs show robust performance across tasks with various levels of difficulty, often competing or surpassing traditional first-principle-based methods. Our results show that in reasoning tasks requiring world knowledge, the performance gap between LLMs and LRMs narrows, with some LLMs even surpassing LRMs. However, the LRM o3 model continues to achieve leading performance across all evaluated tasks, a result attributed primarily to the larger size of the reasoning models. STARK motivates future innovations in model architectures and reasoning paradigms for intelligent CPS by providing a structured framework to identify limitations in the spatiotemporal reasoning of LLMs and LRMs.

Background: Social media platforms have become a viable source of medical information, with patients and healthcare professionals using them to share health-related information and track diseases. Similarly, YouTube, the largest video-sharing platform in the world contains vlogs where individuals talk about their illnesses. The aim of our study was to investigate the use of Natural Language Processing (NLP) to identify the spoken content of YouTube vlogs related to the diagnosis of Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) for public health screening. Methods: COVID-19 videos on YouTube were searched using relevant keywords. A total of 1000 videos being spoken in English were downloaded out of which 791 were classified as vlogs, 192 were non-vlogs, and 17 were deleted by the channel. The videos were converted into a textual format using Microsoft Streams. The textual data was preprocessed using basic and advanced preprocessing methods. A lexicon of 200 words was created which contained words related to COVID-19. The data was analyzed using topic modeling, word clouds, and lexicon matching. Results: The word cloud results revealed discussions about COVID-19 symptoms like "fever", along with generic terms such as "mask" and "isolation". Lexical analysis demonstrated that in 96.46% of videos, patients discussed generic terms, and in 95.45% of videos, people talked about COVID-19 symptoms. LDA Topic Modeling results also generated topics that successfully captured key themes and content related to our investigation of COVID-19 diagnoses in YouTube vlogs. Conclusion: By leveraging NLP techniques on YouTube vlogs public health practitioners can enhance their ability to mitigate the effects of pandemics and effectively respond to public health challenges.

In the light of the COVID-19 pandemic, deep learning methods have been widely investigated in detecting COVID-19 from chest X-rays. However, a more pragmatic approach to applying AI methods to a medical diagnosis is designing a framework that facilitates human-machine interaction and expert decision making. Studies have shown that categorization can play an essential rule in accelerating real-world decision making. Inspired by descriptive document clustering, we propose a domain-independent explanatory clustering framework to group contextually related instances and support radiologists' decision making. While most descriptive clustering approaches employ domain-specific characteristics to form meaningful clusters, we focus on model-level explanation as a more general-purpose element of every learning process to achieve cluster homogeneity. We employ DeepSHAP to generate homogeneous clusters in terms of disease severity and describe the clusters using favorable and unfavorable saliency maps, which visualize the class discriminating regions of an image. These human-interpretable maps complement radiologist knowledge to investigate the whole cluster at once. Besides, as part of this study, we evaluate a model based on VGG-19, which can identify COVID and pneumonia cases with a positive predictive value of 95% and 97%, respectively, comparable to the recent explainable approaches for COVID diagnosis.

Learning spatial-temporal correspondences in cardiac motion from images is important for understanding the underlying dynamics of cardiac anatomical structures. Many methods explicitly impose smoothness constraints such as the L_2 norm on the displacement vector field (DVF), while usually ignoring biomechanical feasibility in the transformation. Other geometric constraints either regularize specific regions of interest such as imposing incompressibility on the myocardium or introduce additional steps such as training a separate network-based regularizer on physically simulated datasets. In this work, we propose an explicit biomechanics-informed prior as regularization on the predicted DVF in modeling a more generic biomechanically plausible transformation within all cardiac structures without introducing additional training complexity. We validate our methods on two publicly available datasets in the context of 2D MRI data and perform extensive experiments to illustrate the effectiveness and robustness of our proposed methods compared to other competing regularization schemes. Our proposed methods better preserve biomechanical properties by visual assessment and show advantages in segmentation performance using quantitative evaluation metrics. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/Voldemort108X/bioinformed_reg.

After being collected for patient care, Observational Health Data (OHD) can further benefit patient well-being by sustaining the development of health informatics and medical research. Vast potential is unexploited because of the fiercely private nature of patient-related data and regulations to protect it. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have recently emerged as a groundbreaking way to learn generative models that produce realistic synthetic data. They have revolutionized practices in multiple domains such as self-driving cars, fraud detection, digital twin simulations in industrial sectors, and medical imaging. The digital twin concept could readily apply to modelling and quantifying disease progression. In addition, GANs posses many capabilities relevant to common problems in healthcare: lack of data, class imbalance, rare diseases, and preserving privacy. Unlocking open access to privacy-preserving OHD could be transformative for scientific research. In the midst of COVID-19, the healthcare system is facing unprecedented challenges, many of which of are data related for the reasons stated above. Considering these facts, publications concerning GAN applied to OHD seemed to be severely lacking. To uncover the reasons for this slow adoption, we broadly reviewed the published literature on the subject. Our findings show that the properties of OHD were initially challenging for the existing GAN algorithms (unlike medical imaging, for which state-of-the-art model were directly transferable) and the evaluation synthetic data lacked clear metrics. We find more publications on the subject than expected, starting slowly in 2017, and since then at an increasing rate. The difficulties of OHD remain, and we discuss issues relating to evaluation, consistency, benchmarking, data modelling, and reproducibility.

Change detection, a prominent research area in remote sensing, is pivotal in observing and analyzing surface transformations. Despite significant advancements achieved through deep learning-based methods, executing high-precision change detection in spatio-temporally complex remote sensing scenarios still presents a substantial challenge. The recent emergence of foundation models, with their powerful universality and generalization capabilities, offers potential solutions. However, bridging the gap of data and tasks remains a significant obstacle. In this paper, we introduce Time Travelling Pixels (TTP), a novel approach that integrates the latent knowledge of the SAM foundation model into change detection. This method effectively addresses the domain shift in general knowledge transfer and the challenge of expressing homogeneous and heterogeneous characteristics of multi-temporal images. The state-of-the-art results obtained on the LEVIR-CD underscore the efficacy of the TTP. The Code is available at https://kychen.me/TTP.

Sequential VAEs have been successfully considered for many high-dimensional time series modelling problems, with many variant models relying on discrete-time mechanisms such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs). On the other hand, continuous-time methods have recently gained attraction, especially in the context of irregularly-sampled time series, where they can better handle the data than discrete-time methods. One such class are Gaussian process variational autoencoders (GPVAEs), where the VAE prior is set as a Gaussian process (GP). However, a major limitation of GPVAEs is that it inherits the cubic computational cost as GPs, making it unattractive to practioners. In this work, we leverage the equivalent discrete state space representation of Markovian GPs to enable linear time GPVAE training via Kalman filtering and smoothing. We show on a variety of high-dimensional temporal and spatiotemporal tasks that our method performs favourably compared to existing approaches whilst being computationally highly scalable.

The COVID-19 pandemic swept across the world rapidly, infecting millions of people. An efficient tool that can accurately recognize important clinical concepts of COVID-19 from free text in electronic health records (EHRs) will be valuable to accelerate COVID-19 clinical research. To this end, this study aims at adapting the existing CLAMP natural language processing tool to quickly build COVID-19 SignSym, which can extract COVID-19 signs/symptoms and their 8 attributes (body location, severity, temporal expression, subject, condition, uncertainty, negation, and course) from clinical text. The extracted information is also mapped to standard concepts in the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership common data model. A hybrid approach of combining deep learning-based models, curated lexicons, and pattern-based rules was applied to quickly build the COVID-19 SignSym from CLAMP, with optimized performance. Our extensive evaluation using 3 external sites with clinical notes of COVID-19 patients, as well as the online medical dialogues of COVID-19, shows COVID-19 Sign-Sym can achieve high performance across data sources. The workflow used for this study can be generalized to other use cases, where existing clinical natural language processing tools need to be customized for specific information needs within a short time. COVID-19 SignSym is freely accessible to the research community as a downloadable package (https://clamp.uth.edu/covid/nlp.php) and has been used by 16 healthcare organizations to support clinical research of COVID-19.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

Despite the outstanding performance of deep learning models in clinical prediction tasks, explainability remains a significant challenge. Inspired by transformer architectures, we introduce the Temporal-Feature Cross Attention Mechanism (TFCAM), a novel deep learning framework designed to capture dynamic interactions among clinical features across time, enhancing both predictive accuracy and interpretability. In an experiment with 1,422 patients with Chronic Kidney Disease, predicting progression to End-Stage Renal Disease, TFCAM outperformed LSTM and RETAIN baselines, achieving an AUROC of 0.95 and an F1-score of 0.69. Beyond performance gains, TFCAM provides multi-level explainability by identifying critical temporal periods, ranking feature importance, and quantifying how features influence each other across time before affecting predictions. Our approach addresses the "black box" limitations of deep learning in healthcare, offering clinicians transparent insights into disease progression mechanisms while maintaining state-of-the-art predictive performance.

Understanding the characteristics of public attention and sentiment is an essential prerequisite for appropriate crisis management during adverse health events. This is even more crucial during a pandemic such as COVID-19, as primary responsibility of risk management is not centralized to a single institution, but distributed across society. While numerous studies utilize Twitter data in descriptive or predictive context during COVID-19 pandemic, causal modeling of public attention has not been investigated. In this study, we propose a causal inference approach to discover and quantify causal relationships between pandemic characteristics (e.g. number of infections and deaths) and Twitter activity as well as public sentiment. Our results show that the proposed method can successfully capture the epidemiological domain knowledge and identify variables that affect public attention and sentiment. We believe our work contributes to the field of infodemiology by distinguishing events that correlate with public attention from events that cause public attention.

The drug development pipeline for a new compound can last 10-20 years and cost over 10 billion. Drug repurposing offers a more time- and cost-effective alternative. Computational approaches based on biomedical knowledge graph representations have recently yielded new drug repurposing hypotheses. In this study, we present a novel, disease-specific hypergraph representation learning technique to derive contextual embeddings of biological pathways of various lengths but that all start at any given drug and all end at the disease of interest. Further, we extend this method to multi-disease hypergraphs. To determine the repurposing potential of each of the 1,522 drugs, we derive drug-specific distributions of cosine similarity values and ultimately consider the median for ranking. Cosine similarity values are computed between (1) all biological pathways starting at the considered drug and ending at the disease of interest and (2) all biological pathways starting at drugs currently prescribed against that disease and ending at the disease of interest. We illustrate our approach with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and two of its risk factors: hypertension (HTN) and type 2 diabetes (T2D). We compare each drug's rank across four hypergraph settings (single- or multi-disease): AD only, AD + HTN, AD + T2D, and AD + HTN + T2D. Notably, our framework led to the identification of two promising drugs whose repurposing potential was significantly higher in hypergraphs combining two diseases: dapagliflozin (antidiabetic; moved up, from top 32% to top 7%, across all considered drugs) and debrisoquine (antihypertensive; moved up, from top 76% to top 23%). Our approach serves as a hypothesis generation tool, to be paired with a validation pipeline relying on laboratory experiments and semi-automated parsing of the biomedical literature.

In this study, we present a technique that spans multi-scale views (global scale -- meaning brain network-level and local scale -- examining each individual ROI that constitutes the network) applied to resting-state fMRI volumes. Deep learning based classification is utilized in understanding neurodegeneration. The novelty of the proposed approach lies in utilizing two extreme scales of analysis. One branch considers the entire network within graph-analysis framework. Concurrently, the second branch scrutinizes each ROI within a network independently, focusing on evolution of dynamics. For each subject, graph-based approach employs partial correlation to profile the subject in a single graph where each ROI is a node, providing insights into differences in levels of participation. In contrast, non-linear analysis employs recurrence plots to profile a subject as a multichannel 2D image, revealing distinctions in underlying dynamics. The proposed approach is employed for classification of a cohort of 50 healthy control (HC) and 50 Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI), sourced from ADNI dataset. Results point to: (1) reduced activity in ROIs such as PCC in MCI (2) greater activity in occipital in MCI, which is not seen in HC (3) when analysed for dynamics, all ROIs in MCI show greater predictability in time-series.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

Operating rooms (ORs) are complex, high-stakes environments requiring precise understanding of interactions among medical staff, tools, and equipment for enhancing surgical assistance, situational awareness, and patient safety. Current datasets fall short in scale, realism and do not capture the multimodal nature of OR scenes, limiting progress in OR modeling. To this end, we introduce MM-OR, a realistic and large-scale multimodal spatiotemporal OR dataset, and the first dataset to enable multimodal scene graph generation. MM-OR captures comprehensive OR scenes containing RGB-D data, detail views, audio, speech transcripts, robotic logs, and tracking data and is annotated with panoptic segmentations, semantic scene graphs, and downstream task labels. Further, we propose MM2SG, the first multimodal large vision-language model for scene graph generation, and through extensive experiments, demonstrate its ability to effectively leverage multimodal inputs. Together, MM-OR and MM2SG establish a new benchmark for holistic OR understanding, and open the path towards multimodal scene analysis in complex, high-stakes environments. Our code, and data is available at https://github.com/egeozsoy/MM-OR.

Generally, the identification and classification of plant diseases and/or pests are performed by an expert . One of the problems facing coffee farmers in Brazil is crop infestation, particularly by leaf rust Hemileia vastatrix and leaf miner Leucoptera coffeella. The progression of the diseases and or pests occurs spatially and temporarily. So, it is very important to automatically identify the degree of severity. The main goal of this article consists on the development of a method and its i implementation as an App that allow the detection of the foliar damages from images of coffee leaf that are captured using a smartphone, and identify whether it is rust or leaf miner, and in turn the calculation of its severity degree. The method consists of identifying a leaf from the image and separates it from the background with the use of a segmentation algorithm. In the segmentation process, various types of backgrounds for the image using the HSV and YCbCr color spaces are tested. In the segmentation of foliar damages, the Otsu algorithm and the iterative threshold algorithm, in the YCgCr color space, have been used and compared to k-means. Next, features of the segmented foliar damages are calculated. For the classification, artificial neural network trained with extreme learning machine have been used. The results obtained shows the feasibility and effectiveness of the approach to identify and classify foliar damages, and the automatic calculation of the severity. The results obtained are very promising according to experts.

Developing an accurate tourism forecasting model is essential for making desirable policy decisions for tourism management. Early studies on tourism management focus on discovering external factors related to tourism demand. Recent studies utilize deep learning in demand forecasting along with these external factors. They mainly use recursive neural network models such as LSTM and RNN for their frameworks. However, these models are not suitable for use in forecasting tourism demand. This is because tourism demand is strongly affected by changes in various external factors, and recursive neural network models have limitations in handling these multivariate inputs. We propose a multi-head attention CNN model (MHAC) for addressing these limitations. The MHAC uses 1D-convolutional neural network to analyze temporal patterns and the attention mechanism to reflect correlations between input variables. This model makes it possible to extract spatiotemporal characteristics from time-series data of various variables. We apply our forecasting framework to predict inbound tourist changes in South Korea by considering external factors such as politics, disease, season, and attraction of Korean culture. The performance results of extensive experiments show that our method outperforms other deep-learning-based prediction frameworks in South Korea tourism forecasting.

Spatio-temporal reasoning is essential in understanding real-world environments in various fields, eg, autonomous driving and sports analytics. Recent advances have improved the spatial reasoning ability of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) by introducing large-scale data, but these models still struggle to analyze kinematic elements like traveled distance and speed of moving objects. To bridge this gap, we construct a spatio-temporal reasoning dataset and benchmark involving kinematic instruction tuning, referred to as STKit and STKit-Bench. They consist of real-world videos with 3D annotations, detailing object motion dynamics: traveled distance, speed, movement direction, inter-object distance comparisons, and relative movement direction. To further scale such data construction to videos without 3D labels, we propose an automatic pipeline to generate pseudo-labels using 4D reconstruction in real-world scale. With our kinematic instruction tuning data for spatio-temporal reasoning, we present ST-VLM, a VLM enhanced for spatio-temporal reasoning, which exhibits outstanding performance on STKit-Bench. Furthermore, we show that ST-VLM generalizes robustly across diverse domains and tasks, outperforming baselines on other spatio-temporal benchmarks (eg, ActivityNet, TVQA+). Finally, by integrating learned spatio-temporal reasoning with existing abilities, ST-VLM enables complex multi-step reasoning. Project page: https://ikodoh.github.io/ST-VLM.

Machine learning (ML) holds great potential for accurately forecasting treatment outcomes over time, which could ultimately enable the adoption of more individualized treatment strategies in many practical applications. However, a significant challenge that has been largely overlooked by the ML literature on this topic is the presence of informative sampling in observational data. When instances are observed irregularly over time, sampling times are typically not random, but rather informative -- depending on the instance's characteristics, past outcomes, and administered treatments. In this work, we formalize informative sampling as a covariate shift problem and show that it can prohibit accurate estimation of treatment outcomes if not properly accounted for. To overcome this challenge, we present a general framework for learning treatment outcomes in the presence of informative sampling using inverse intensity-weighting, and propose a novel method, TESAR-CDE, that instantiates this framework using Neural CDEs. Using a simulation environment based on a clinical use case, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in learning under informative sampling.

Multi-modality magnetic resonance imaging data with various sequences facilitate the early diagnosis, tumor segmentation, and disease staging in the management of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). The lack of publicly available, comprehensive datasets limits advancements in diagnosis, treatment planning, and the development of machine learning algorithms for NPC. Addressing this critical need, we introduce the first comprehensive NPC MRI dataset, encompassing MR axial imaging of 277 primary NPC patients. This dataset includes T1-weighted, T2-weighted, and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted sequences, totaling 831 scans. In addition to the corresponding clinical data, manually annotated and labeled segmentations by experienced radiologists offer high-quality data resources from untreated primary NPC.

With the rapid advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies, the focus of survival analysis has shifted from examining clinical indicators to incorporating genomic profiles with pathological images. However, existing methods either directly adopt a straightforward fusion of pathological features and genomic profiles for survival prediction, or take genomic profiles as guidance to integrate the features of pathological images. The former would overlook intrinsic cross-modal correlations. The latter would discard pathological information irrelevant to gene expression. To address these issues, we present a Cross-Modal Translation and Alignment (CMTA) framework to explore the intrinsic cross-modal correlations and transfer potential complementary information. Specifically, we construct two parallel encoder-decoder structures for multi-modal data to integrate intra-modal information and generate cross-modal representation. Taking the generated cross-modal representation to enhance and recalibrate intra-modal representation can significantly improve its discrimination for comprehensive survival analysis. To explore the intrinsic crossmodal correlations, we further design a cross-modal attention module as the information bridge between different modalities to perform cross-modal interactions and transfer complementary information. Our extensive experiments on five public TCGA datasets demonstrate that our proposed framework outperforms the state-of-the-art methods.

Decisions about managing patients on the heart transplant waitlist are currently made by committees of doctors who consider multiple factors, but the process remains largely ad-hoc. With the growing volume of longitudinal patient, donor, and organ data collected by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) since 2018, there is increasing interest in analytical approaches to support clinical decision-making at the time of organ availability. In this study, we benchmark machine learning models that leverage longitudinal waitlist history data for time-dependent, time-to-event modeling of waitlist mortality. We train on 23,807 patient records with 77 variables and evaluate both survival prediction and discrimination at a 1-year horizon. Our best model achieves a C-Index of 0.94 and AUROC of 0.89, significantly outperforming previous models. Key predictors align with known risk factors while also revealing novel associations. Our findings can support urgency assessment and policy refinement in heart transplant decision making.

The pervasive influence of misinformation has far-reaching and detrimental effects on both individuals and society. The COVID-19 pandemic has witnessed an alarming surge in the dissemination of medical misinformation. However, existing datasets pertaining to misinformation predominantly focus on textual information, neglecting the inclusion of visual elements, and tend to center solely on COVID-19-related misinformation, overlooking misinformation surrounding other diseases. Furthermore, the potential of Large Language Models (LLMs), such as the ChatGPT developed in late 2022, in generating misinformation has been overlooked in previous works. To overcome these limitations, we present Med-MMHL, a novel multi-modal misinformation detection dataset in a general medical domain encompassing multiple diseases. Med-MMHL not only incorporates human-generated misinformation but also includes misinformation generated by LLMs like ChatGPT. Our dataset aims to facilitate comprehensive research and development of methodologies for detecting misinformation across diverse diseases and various scenarios, including human and LLM-generated misinformation detection at the sentence, document, and multi-modal levels. To access our dataset and code, visit our GitHub repository: https://github.com/styxsys0927/Med-MMHL.

Dynamic imaging addresses the recovery of a time-varying 2D or 3D object at each time instant using its undersampled measurements. In particular, in the case of dynamic tomography, only a single projection at a single view angle may be available at a time, making the problem severely ill-posed. In this work, we propose an approach, RED-PSM, which combines for the first time two powerful techniques to address this challenging imaging problem. The first, are partially separable models, which have been used to efficiently introduce a low-rank prior for the spatio-temporal object. The second is the recent Regularization by Denoising (RED), which provides a flexible framework to exploit the impressive performance of state-of-the-art image denoising algorithms, for various inverse problems. We propose a partially separable objective with RED and a computationally efficient and scalable optimization scheme with variable splitting and ADMM. Theoretical analysis proves the convergence of our objective to a value corresponding to a stationary point satisfying the first-order optimality conditions. Convergence is accelerated by a particular projection-domain-based initialization. We demonstrate the performance and computational improvements of our proposed RED-PSM with a learned image denoiser by comparing it to a recent deep-prior-based method known as TD-DIP. Although the main focus is on dynamic tomography, we also show the performance advantages of RED-PSM in a cardiac dynamic MRI setting.

Clinical diagnosis of the eye is performed over multifarious data modalities including scalar clinical labels, vectorized biomarkers, two-dimensional fundus images, and three-dimensional Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) scans. Clinical practitioners use all available data modalities for diagnosing and treating eye diseases like Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) or Diabetic Macular Edema (DME). Enabling usage of machine learning algorithms within the ophthalmic medical domain requires research into the relationships and interactions between all relevant data over a treatment period. Existing datasets are limited in that they neither provide data nor consider the explicit relationship modeling between the data modalities. In this paper, we introduce the Ophthalmic Labels for Investigating Visual Eye Semantics (OLIVES) dataset that addresses the above limitation. This is the first OCT and near-IR fundus dataset that includes clinical labels, biomarker labels, disease labels, and time-series patient treatment information from associated clinical trials. The dataset consists of 1268 near-IR fundus images each with at least 49 OCT scans, and 16 biomarkers, along with 4 clinical labels and a disease diagnosis of DR or DME. In total, there are 96 eyes' data averaged over a period of at least two years with each eye treated for an average of 66 weeks and 7 injections. We benchmark the utility of OLIVES dataset for ophthalmic data as well as provide benchmarks and concrete research directions for core and emerging machine learning paradigms within medical image analysis.

In this paper, we introduce fastHDMI, a Python package designed for efficient variable screening in high-dimensional datasets, particularly neuroimaging data. This work pioneers the application of three mutual information estimation methods for neuroimaging variable selection, a novel approach implemented via fastHDMI. These advancements enhance our ability to analyze the complex structures of neuroimaging datasets, providing improved tools for variable selection in high-dimensional spaces. Using the preprocessed ABIDE dataset, we evaluate the performance of these methods through extensive simulations. The tests cover a range of conditions, including linear and nonlinear associations, as well as continuous and binary outcomes. Our results highlight the superiority of the FFTKDE-based mutual information estimation for feature screening in continuous nonlinear outcomes, while binning-based methods outperform others for binary outcomes with nonlinear probability preimages. For linear simulations, both Pearson correlation and FFTKDE-based methods show comparable performance for continuous outcomes, while Pearson excels in binary outcomes with linear probability preimages. A comprehensive case study using the ABIDE dataset further demonstrates fastHDMI's practical utility, showcasing the predictive power of models built from variables selected using our screening techniques. This research affirms the computational efficiency and methodological strength of fastHDMI, significantly enriching the toolkit available for neuroimaging analysis.

Reducing traffic accidents is an important public safety challenge. However, the majority of studies on traffic accident analysis and prediction have used small-scale datasets with limited coverage, which limits their impact and applicability; and existing large-scale datasets are either private, old, or do not include important contextual information such as environmental stimuli (weather, points-of-interest, etc.). In order to help the research community address these shortcomings we have - through a comprehensive process of data collection, integration, and augmentation - created a large-scale publicly available database of accident information named US-Accidents. US-Accidents currently contains data about 2.25 million instances of traffic accidents that took place within the contiguous United States, and over the last three years. Each accident record consists of a variety of intrinsic and contextual attributes such as location, time, natural language description, weather, period-of-day, and points-of-interest. We present this dataset in this paper, along with a wide range of insights gleaned from this dataset with respect to the spatiotemporal characteristics of accidents. The dataset is publicly available at https://smoosavi.org/datasets/us_accidents.

Medical research generates a large number of publications with the PubMed database already containing >35 million research articles. Integration of the knowledge scattered across this large body of literature could provide key insights into physiological mechanisms and disease processes leading to novel medical interventions. However, it is a great challenge for researchers to utilize this information in full since the scale and complexity of the data greatly surpasses human processing abilities. This becomes especially problematic in cases of extreme urgency like the COVID-19 pandemic. Automated text mining can help extract and connect information from the large body of medical research articles. The first step in text mining is typically the identification of specific classes of keywords (e.g., all protein or disease names), so called Named Entity Recognition (NER). Here we present an end-to-end pipeline for NER of typical entities found in medical research articles, including diseases, cells, chemicals, genes/proteins, and species. The pipeline can access and process large medical research article collections (PubMed, CORD-19) or raw text and incorporates a series of deep learning models fine-tuned on the HUNER corpora collection. In addition, the pipeline can perform dictionary-based NER related to COVID-19 and other medical topics. Users can also load their own NER models and dictionaries to include additional entities. The output consists of publication-ready ranked lists and graphs of detected entities and files containing the annotated texts. An associated script allows rapid inspection of the results for specific entities of interest. As model use cases, the pipeline was deployed on two collections of autophagy-related abstracts from PubMed and on the CORD19 dataset, a collection of 764 398 research article abstracts related to COVID-19.

Survival prediction using whole slide images (WSIs) can be formulated as a multiple instance learning (MIL) problem. However, existing MIL methods often fail to explicitly capture pathological heterogeneity within WSIs, both globally -- through long-tailed morphological distributions, and locally through -- tile-level prediction uncertainty. Optimal transport (OT) provides a principled way of modeling such heterogeneity by incorporating marginal distribution constraints. Building on this insight, we propose OTSurv, a novel MIL framework from an optimal transport perspective. Specifically, OTSurv formulates survival predictions as a heterogeneity-aware OT problem with two constraints: (1) global long-tail constraint that models prior morphological distributions to avert both mode collapse and excessive uniformity by regulating transport mass allocation, and (2) local uncertainty-aware constraint that prioritizes high-confidence patches while suppressing noise by progressively raising the total transport mass. We then recast the initial OT problem, augmented by these constraints, into an unbalanced OT formulation that can be solved with an efficient, hardware-friendly matrix scaling algorithm. Empirically, OTSurv sets new state-of-the-art results across six popular benchmarks, achieving an absolute 3.6% improvement in average C-index. In addition, OTSurv achieves statistical significance in log-rank tests and offers high interpretability, making it a powerful tool for survival prediction in digital pathology. Our codes are available at https://github.com/Y-Research-SBU/OTSurv.

Remarkable strides in computational pathology have been made in the task-agnostic foundation model that advances the performance of a wide array of downstream clinical tasks. Despite the promising performance, there are still several challenges. First, prior works have resorted to either vision-only or image-caption data, disregarding pathology reports with more clinically authentic information from pathologists and gene expression profiles which respectively offer distinct knowledge for versatile clinical applications. Second, the current progress in pathology FMs predominantly concentrates on the patch level, where the restricted context of patch-level pretraining fails to capture whole-slide patterns. Even recent slide-level FMs still struggle to provide whole-slide context for patch representation. In this study, for the first time, we develop a pathology foundation model incorporating three levels of modalities: pathology slides, pathology reports, and gene expression data, which resulted in 26,169 slide-level modality pairs from 10,275 patients across 32 cancer types, amounting to over 116 million pathological patch images. To leverage these data for CPath, we propose a novel whole-slide pretraining paradigm that injects the multimodal whole-slide context into the patch representation, called Multimodal Self-TAught PRetraining (mSTAR). The proposed paradigm revolutionizes the pretraining workflow for CPath, enabling the pathology FM to acquire the whole-slide context. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to incorporate three modalities at the whole-slide context for enhancing pathology FMs. To systematically evaluate the capabilities of mSTAR, we built the largest spectrum of oncological benchmark, spanning 7 categories of oncological applications in 15 types of 97 practical oncological tasks.

Conventional surveillance systems for monitoring infectious diseases, such as influenza, face challenges due to shortage of skilled healthcare professionals, remoteness of communities and absence of communication infrastructures. Internet-based approaches for surveillance are appealing logistically as well as economically. Search engine queries and Twitter have been the primarily used data sources in such approaches. The aim of this study is to assess the predictive power of an alternative data source, Instagram. By using 317 weeks of publicly available data from Instagram, we trained several machine learning algorithms to both nowcast and forecast the number of official influenza-like illness incidents in Finland where population-wide official statistics about the weekly incidents are available. In addition to date and hashtag count features of online posts, we were able to utilize also the visual content of the posted images with the help of deep convolutional neural networks. Our best nowcasting model reached a mean absolute error of 11.33 incidents per week and a correlation coefficient of 0.963 on the test data. Forecasting models for predicting 1 week and 2 weeks ahead showed statistical significance as well by reaching correlation coefficients of 0.903 and 0.862, respectively. This study demonstrates how social media and in particular, digital photographs shared in them, can be a valuable source of information for the field of infodemiology.

Clinical routine and retrospective cohorts commonly include multi-parametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging; however, they are mostly acquired in different anisotropic 2D views due to signal-to-noise-ratio and scan-time constraints. Thus acquired views suffer from poor out-of-plane resolution and affect downstream volumetric image analysis that typically requires isotropic 3D scans. Combining different views of multi-contrast scans into high-resolution isotropic 3D scans is challenging due to the lack of a large training cohort, which calls for a subject-specific framework. This work proposes a novel solution to this problem leveraging Implicit Neural Representations (INR). Our proposed INR jointly learns two different contrasts of complementary views in a continuous spatial function and benefits from exchanging anatomical information between them. Trained within minutes on a single commodity GPU, our model provides realistic super-resolution across different pairs of contrasts in our experiments with three datasets. Using Mutual Information (MI) as a metric, we find that our model converges to an optimum MI amongst sequences, achieving anatomically faithful reconstruction. Code is available at: https://github.com/jqmcginnis/multi_contrast_inr/

As the global food security landscape continues to evolve, the need for accurate and reliable crop disease diagnosis has never been more pressing. To address global food security concerns, we extend the widely used PlantVillage dataset with additional apple leaf disease classes, enhancing diversity and complexity. Experimental evaluations on both original and extended datasets reveal that existing models struggle with the new additions, highlighting the need for more robust and generalizable computer vision models. Test F1 scores of 99.63% and 97.87% were obtained on the original and extended datasets, respectively. Our study provides a more challenging and diverse benchmark, paving the way for the development of accurate and reliable models for identifying apple leaf diseases under varying imaging conditions. The expanded dataset is available at https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/akinyemijoseph/apple-leaf-disease-dataset-6-classes-v2 enabling future research to build upon our findings.

The COVID-19 pandemic has threatened global health. Many studies have applied deep convolutional neural networks (CNN) to recognize COVID-19 based on chest 3D computed tomography (CT). Recent works show that no model generalizes well across CT datasets from different countries, and manually designing models for specific datasets requires expertise; thus, neural architecture search (NAS) that aims to search models automatically has become an attractive solution. To reduce the search cost on large 3D CT datasets, most NAS-based works use the weight-sharing (WS) strategy to make all models share weights within a supernet; however, WS inevitably incurs search instability, leading to inaccurate model estimation. In this work, we propose an efficient Evolutionary Multi-objective ARchitecture Search (EMARS) framework. We propose a new objective, namely potential, which can help exploit promising models to indirectly reduce the number of models involved in weights training, thus alleviating search instability. We demonstrate that under objectives of accuracy and potential, EMARS can balance exploitation and exploration, i.e., reducing search time and finding better models. Our searched models are small and perform better than prior works on three public COVID-19 3D CT datasets.

Heterogeneity and comorbidity are two interwoven challenges associated with various healthcare problems that greatly hampered research on developing effective treatment and understanding of the underlying neurobiological mechanism. Very few studies have been conducted to investigate heterogeneous causal effects (HCEs) in graphical contexts due to the lack of statistical methods. To characterize this heterogeneity, we first conceptualize heterogeneous causal graphs (HCGs) by generalizing the causal graphical model with confounder-based interactions and multiple mediators. Such confounders with an interaction with the treatment are known as moderators. This allows us to flexibly produce HCGs given different moderators and explicitly characterize HCEs from the treatment or potential mediators on the outcome. We establish the theoretical forms of HCEs and derive their properties at the individual level in both linear and nonlinear models. An interactive structural learning is developed to estimate the complex HCGs and HCEs with confidence intervals provided. Our method is empirically justified by extensive simulations and its practical usefulness is illustrated by exploring causality among psychiatric disorders for trauma survivors.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Temporally dense single-person "small data" have become widely available thanks to mobile apps and wearable sensors. Many caregivers and self-trackers want to use these data to help a specific person change their behavior to achieve desired health outcomes. Ideally, this involves discerning possible causes from correlations using that person's own observational time series data. In this paper, we estimate within-individual average treatment effects of physical activity on sleep duration, and vice-versa. We introduce the model twin randomization (MoTR; "motor") method for analyzing an individual's intensive longitudinal data. Formally, MoTR is an application of the g-formula (i.e., standardization, back-door adjustment) under serial interference. It estimates stable recurring effects, as is done in n-of-1 trials and single case experimental designs. We compare our approach to standard methods (with possible confounding) to show how to use causal inference to make better personalized recommendations for health behavior change, and analyze 222 days of Fitbit sleep and steps data for one of the authors.

In this article, we conduct data mining to discover the countries, universities and companies, produced or collaborated the most research on Covid-19 since the pandemic started. We present some interesting findings, but despite analysing all available records on COVID-19 from the Web of Science Core Collection, we failed to reach any significant conclusions on how the world responded to the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, we increased our analysis to include all available data records on pandemics and epidemics from 1900 to 2020. We discover some interesting results on countries, universities and companies, that produced collaborated most the most in research on pandemic and epidemics. Then we compared the results with the analysing on COVID-19 data records. This has created some interesting findings that are explained and graphically visualised in the article.

Purpose: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to visualize anatomical motion is becoming increasingly important when treating cancer patients with radiotherapy. Hybrid MRI-linear accelerator (MRI-linac) systems allow real-time motion management during irradiation. This paper presents a multi-institutional real-time MRI time series dataset from different MRI-linac vendors. The dataset is designed to support developing and evaluating real-time tumor localization (tracking) algorithms for MRI-guided radiotherapy within the TrackRAD2025 challenge (https://trackrad2025.grand-challenge.org/). Acquisition and validation methods: The dataset consists of sagittal 2D cine MRIs in 585 patients from six centers (3 Dutch, 1 German, 1 Australian, and 1 Chinese). Tumors in the thorax, abdomen, and pelvis acquired on two commercially available MRI-linacs (0.35 T and 1.5 T) were included. For 108 cases, irradiation targets or tracking surrogates were manually segmented on each temporal frame. The dataset was randomly split into a public training set of 527 cases (477 unlabeled and 50 labeled) and a private testing set of 58 cases (all labeled). Data Format and Usage Notes: The data is publicly available under the TrackRAD2025 collection: https://doi.org/10.57967/hf/4539. Both the images and segmentations for each patient are available in metadata format. Potential Applications: This novel clinical dataset will enable the development and evaluation of real-time tumor localization algorithms for MRI-guided radiotherapy. By enabling more accurate motion management and adaptive treatment strategies, this dataset has the potential to advance the field of radiotherapy significantly.

Cancer has relational information residing at varying scales, modalities, and resolutions of the acquired data, such as radiology, pathology, genomics, proteomics, and clinical records. Integrating diverse data types can improve the accuracy and reliability of cancer diagnosis and treatment. There can be disease-related information that is too subtle for humans or existing technological tools to discern visually. Traditional methods typically focus on partial or unimodal information about biological systems at individual scales and fail to encapsulate the complete spectrum of the heterogeneous nature of data. Deep neural networks have facilitated the development of sophisticated multimodal data fusion approaches that can extract and integrate relevant information from multiple sources. Recent deep learning frameworks such as Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and Transformers have shown remarkable success in multimodal learning. This review article provides an in-depth analysis of the state-of-the-art in GNNs and Transformers for multimodal data fusion in oncology settings, highlighting notable research studies and their findings. We also discuss the foundations of multimodal learning, inherent challenges, and opportunities for integrative learning in oncology. By examining the current state and potential future developments of multimodal data integration in oncology, we aim to demonstrate the promising role that multimodal neural networks can play in cancer prevention, early detection, and treatment through informed oncology practices in personalized settings.

Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.

Graph-based deep learning methods have become popular tools to process collections of correlated time series. Differently from traditional multivariate forecasting methods, neural graph-based predictors take advantage of pairwise relationships by conditioning forecasts on a (possibly dynamic) graph spanning the time series collection. The conditioning can take the form of an architectural inductive bias on the neural forecasting architecture, resulting in a family of deep learning models called spatiotemporal graph neural networks. Such relational inductive biases enable the training of global forecasting models on large time-series collections, while at the same time localizing predictions w.r.t. each element in the set (i.e., graph nodes) by accounting for local correlations among them (i.e., graph edges). Indeed, recent theoretical and practical advances in graph neural networks and deep learning for time series forecasting make the adoption of such processing frameworks appealing and timely. However, most of the studies in the literature focus on proposing variations of existing neural architectures by taking advantage of modern deep learning practices, while foundational and methodological aspects have not been subject to systematic investigation. To fill the gap, this paper aims to introduce a comprehensive methodological framework that formalizes the forecasting problem and provides design principles for graph-based predictive models and methods to assess their performance. At the same time, together with an overview of the field, we provide design guidelines, recommendations, and best practices, as well as an in-depth discussion of open challenges and future research directions.

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is a chronic lung disease affecting 35% of extremely low birth weight infants. Defined by oxygen dependence at 36 weeks postmenstrual age, it causes lifelong respiratory complications. However, preventive interventions carry severe risks, including neurodevelopmental impairment, ventilator-induced lung injury, and systemic complications. Therefore, early BPD prognosis and prediction of BPD outcome is crucial to avoid unnecessary toxicity in low risk infants. Admission radiographs of extremely preterm infants are routinely acquired within 24h of life and could serve as a non-invasive prognostic tool. In this work, we developed and investigated a deep learning approach using chest X-rays from 163 extremely low-birth-weight infants (leq32 weeks gestation, 401-999g) obtained within 24 hours of birth. We fine-tuned a ResNet-50 pretrained specifically on adult chest radiographs, employing progressive layer freezing with discriminative learning rates to prevent overfitting and evaluated a CutMix augmentation and linear probing. For moderate/severe BPD outcome prediction, our best performing model with progressive freezing, linear probing and CutMix achieved an AUROC of 0.78 pm 0.10, balanced accuracy of 0.69 pm 0.10, and an F1-score of 0.67 pm 0.11. In-domain pre-training significantly outperformed ImageNet initialization (p = 0.031) which confirms domain-specific pretraining to be important for BPD outcome prediction. Routine IRDS grades showed limited prognostic value (AUROC 0.57 pm 0.11), confirming the need of learned markers. Our approach demonstrates that domain-specific pretraining enables accurate BPD prediction from routine day-1 radiographs. Through progressive freezing and linear probing, the method remains computationally feasible for site-level implementation and future federated learning deployments.

This paper presents a differentially private approach to Kaplan-Meier estimation that achieves accurate survival probability estimates while safeguarding individual privacy. The Kaplan-Meier estimator is widely used in survival analysis to estimate survival functions over time, yet applying it to sensitive datasets, such as clinical records, risks revealing private information. To address this, we introduce a novel algorithm that applies time-indexed Laplace noise, dynamic clipping, and smoothing to produce a privacy-preserving survival curve while maintaining the cumulative structure of the Kaplan-Meier estimator. By scaling noise over time, the algorithm accounts for decreasing sensitivity as fewer individuals remain at risk, while dynamic clipping and smoothing prevent extreme values and reduce fluctuations, preserving the natural shape of the survival curve. Our results, evaluated on the NCCTG lung cancer dataset, show that the proposed method effectively lowers root mean squared error (RMSE) and enhances accuracy across privacy budgets (epsilon). At epsilon = 10, the algorithm achieves an RMSE as low as 0.04, closely approximating non-private estimates. Additionally, membership inference attacks reveal that higher epsilon values (e.g., epsilon geq 6) significantly reduce influential points, particularly at higher thresholds, lowering susceptibility to inference attacks. These findings confirm that our approach balances privacy and utility, advancing privacy-preserving survival analysis.

We study growth of solid tumors in a partial differential equation model introduced by Hillen et al for the interaction between tumor cells (TCs) and cancer stem cells (CSCs). We find that invasion into the cancer-free state may be separated into two regimes, depending on the death rate of tumor cells. In the first, staged invasion regime, invasion into the cancer-free state is lead by tumor cells, which are then subsequently invaded at a slower speed by cancer stem cells. In the second, TC extinction regime, cancer stem cells directly invade the cancer-free state. Relying on recent results establishing front selection propagation under marginal stability assumptions, we use geometric singular perturbation theory to establish existence and selection properties of front solutions which describe both the primary and secondary invasion processes. With rigorous predictions for the invasion speeds, we are then able to heuristically predict how the total cancer mass as a function of time depends on the TC death rate, finding in some situations a tumor invasion paradox, in which increasing the TC death rate leads to an increase in the total cancer mass. Our methods give a general approach for verifying linear determinacy of spreading speeds of invasion fronts in systems with fast-slow structure.

Motion time series collected from mobile and wearable devices such as smartphones and smartwatches offer significant insights into human behavioral patterns, with wide applications in healthcare, automation, IoT, and AR/XR due to their low-power, always-on nature. However, given security and privacy concerns, building large-scale motion time series datasets remains difficult, preventing the development of pre-trained models for human activity analysis. Typically, existing models are trained and tested on the same dataset, leading to poor generalizability across variations in device location, device mounting orientation and human activity type. In this paper, we introduce UniMTS, the first unified pre-training procedure for motion time series that generalizes across diverse device latent factors and activities. Specifically, we employ a contrastive learning framework that aligns motion time series with text descriptions enriched by large language models. This helps the model learn the semantics of time series to generalize across activities. Given the absence of large-scale motion time series data, we derive and synthesize time series from existing motion skeleton data with all-joint coverage. Spatio-temporal graph networks are utilized to capture the relationships across joints for generalization across different device locations. We further design rotation-invariant augmentation to make the model agnostic to changes in device mounting orientations. Our model shows exceptional generalizability across 18 motion time series classification benchmark datasets, outperforming the best baselines by 340% in the zero-shot setting, 16.3% in the few-shot setting, and 9.2% in the full-shot setting.