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Aug 11

Explaining Sources of Uncertainty in Automated Fact-Checking

Understanding sources of a model's uncertainty regarding its predictions is crucial for effective human-AI collaboration. Prior work proposes using numerical uncertainty or hedges ("I'm not sure, but ..."), which do not explain uncertainty that arises from conflicting evidence, leaving users unable to resolve disagreements or rely on the output. We introduce CLUE (Conflict-and-Agreement-aware Language-model Uncertainty Explanations), the first framework to generate natural language explanations of model uncertainty by (i) identifying relationships between spans of text that expose claim-evidence or inter-evidence conflicts and agreements that drive the model's predictive uncertainty in an unsupervised way, and (ii) generating explanations via prompting and attention steering that verbalize these critical interactions. Across three language models and two fact-checking datasets, we show that CLUE produces explanations that are more faithful to the model's uncertainty and more consistent with fact-checking decisions than prompting for uncertainty explanations without span-interaction guidance. Human evaluators judge our explanations to be more helpful, more informative, less redundant, and more logically consistent with the input than this baseline. CLUE requires no fine-tuning or architectural changes, making it plug-and-play for any white-box language model. By explicitly linking uncertainty to evidence conflicts, it offers practical support for fact-checking and generalises readily to other tasks that require reasoning over complex information.

Explaining Large Language Models Decisions Using Shapley Values

The emergence of large language models (LLMs) has opened up exciting possibilities for simulating human behavior and cognitive processes, with potential applications in various domains, including marketing research and consumer behavior analysis. However, the validity of utilizing LLMs as stand-ins for human subjects remains uncertain due to glaring divergences that suggest fundamentally different underlying processes at play and the sensitivity of LLM responses to prompt variations. This paper presents a novel approach based on Shapley values from cooperative game theory to interpret LLM behavior and quantify the relative contribution of each prompt component to the model's output. Through two applications - a discrete choice experiment and an investigation of cognitive biases - we demonstrate how the Shapley value method can uncover what we term "token noise" effects, a phenomenon where LLM decisions are disproportionately influenced by tokens providing minimal informative content. This phenomenon raises concerns about the robustness and generalizability of insights obtained from LLMs in the context of human behavior simulation. Our model-agnostic approach extends its utility to proprietary LLMs, providing a valuable tool for practitioners and researchers to strategically optimize prompts and mitigate apparent cognitive biases. Our findings underscore the need for a more nuanced understanding of the factors driving LLM responses before relying on them as substitutes for human subjects in survey settings. We emphasize the importance of researchers reporting results conditioned on specific prompt templates and exercising caution when drawing parallels between human behavior and LLMs.

Explaining Neural Scaling Laws

The population loss of trained deep neural networks often follows precise power-law scaling relations with either the size of the training dataset or the number of parameters in the network. We propose a theory that explains the origins of and connects these scaling laws. We identify variance-limited and resolution-limited scaling behavior for both dataset and model size, for a total of four scaling regimes. The variance-limited scaling follows simply from the existence of a well-behaved infinite data or infinite width limit, while the resolution-limited regime can be explained by positing that models are effectively resolving a smooth data manifold. In the large width limit, this can be equivalently obtained from the spectrum of certain kernels, and we present evidence that large width and large dataset resolution-limited scaling exponents are related by a duality. We exhibit all four scaling regimes in the controlled setting of large random feature and pretrained models and test the predictions empirically on a range of standard architectures and datasets. We also observe several empirical relationships between datasets and scaling exponents under modifications of task and architecture aspect ratio. Our work provides a taxonomy for classifying different scaling regimes, underscores that there can be different mechanisms driving improvements in loss, and lends insight into the microscopic origins of and relationships between scaling exponents.

MedThink: Explaining Medical Visual Question Answering via Multimodal Decision-Making Rationale

Medical Visual Question Answering (MedVQA), which offers language responses to image-based medical inquiries, represents a challenging task and significant advancement in healthcare. It assists medical experts to swiftly interpret medical images, thereby enabling faster and more accurate diagnoses. However, the model interpretability and transparency of existing MedVQA solutions are often limited, posing challenges in understanding their decision-making processes. To address this issue, we devise a semi-automated annotation process to streamline data preparation and build new benchmark MedVQA datasets R-RAD, R-SLAKE and R-Path. These datasets provide intermediate medical decision-making rationales generated by multimodal large language models and human annotations for question-answering pairs in existing MedVQA datasets, i.e., VQA-RAD, SLAKE and PathVQA. Moreover, we design a novel framework, MedThink, which finetunes lightweight pretrained generative models by incorporating medical decision-making rationales. MedThink includes three distinct strategies to generate decision outcomes and corresponding rationales, thereby clearly showcasing the medical decision-making process during reasoning. Our comprehensive experiments show that our method achieves an accuracy of 83.5% on R-RAD, 86.3% on R-SLAKE and 87.2% on R-Path. These results significantly exceed those of existing state-of-the-art models with comparable parameters. Datasets and code will be released.

TalkToModel: Explaining Machine Learning Models with Interactive Natural Language Conversations

Machine Learning (ML) models are increasingly used to make critical decisions in real-world applications, yet they have become more complex, making them harder to understand. To this end, researchers have proposed several techniques to explain model predictions. However, practitioners struggle to use these explainability techniques because they often do not know which one to choose and how to interpret the results of the explanations. In this work, we address these challenges by introducing TalkToModel: an interactive dialogue system for explaining machine learning models through conversations. Specifically, TalkToModel comprises of three key components: 1) a natural language interface for engaging in conversations, making ML model explainability highly accessible, 2) a dialogue engine that adapts to any tabular model and dataset, interprets natural language, maps it to appropriate explanations, and generates text responses, and 3) an execution component that constructs the explanations. We carried out extensive quantitative and human subject evaluations of TalkToModel. Overall, we found the conversational system understands user inputs on novel datasets and models with high accuracy, demonstrating the system's capacity to generalize to new situations. In real-world evaluations with humans, 73% of healthcare workers (e.g., doctors and nurses) agreed they would use TalkToModel over baseline point-and-click systems for explainability in a disease prediction task, and 85% of ML professionals agreed TalkToModel was easier to use for computing explanations. Our findings demonstrate that TalkToModel is more effective for model explainability than existing systems, introducing a new category of explainability tools for practitioners. Code & demo released here: https://github.com/dylan-slack/TalkToModel.

This Looks Like That, Because ... Explaining Prototypes for Interpretable Image Recognition

Image recognition with prototypes is considered an interpretable alternative for black box deep learning models. Classification depends on the extent to which a test image "looks like" a prototype. However, perceptual similarity for humans can be different from the similarity learned by the classification model. Hence, only visualising prototypes can be insufficient for a user to understand what a prototype exactly represents, and why the model considers a prototype and an image to be similar. We address this ambiguity and argue that prototypes should be explained. We improve interpretability by automatically enhancing visual prototypes with textual quantitative information about visual characteristics deemed important by the classification model. Specifically, our method clarifies the meaning of a prototype by quantifying the influence of colour hue, shape, texture, contrast and saturation and can generate both global and local explanations. Because of the generality of our approach, it can improve the interpretability of any similarity-based method for prototypical image recognition. In our experiments, we apply our method to the existing Prototypical Part Network (ProtoPNet). Our analysis confirms that the global explanations are generalisable, and often correspond to the visually perceptible properties of a prototype. Our explanations are especially relevant for prototypes which might have been interpreted incorrectly otherwise. By explaining such 'misleading' prototypes, we improve the interpretability and simulatability of a prototype-based classification model. We also use our method to check whether visually similar prototypes have similar explanations, and are able to discover redundancy. Code is available at https://github.com/M-Nauta/Explaining_Prototypes .

So-Fake: Benchmarking and Explaining Social Media Image Forgery Detection

Recent advances in AI-powered generative models have enabled the creation of increasingly realistic synthetic images, posing significant risks to information integrity and public trust on social media platforms. While robust detection frameworks and diverse, large-scale datasets are essential to mitigate these risks, existing academic efforts remain limited in scope: current datasets lack the diversity, scale, and realism required for social media contexts, while detection methods struggle with generalization to unseen generative technologies. To bridge this gap, we introduce So-Fake-Set, a comprehensive social media-oriented dataset with over 2 million high-quality images, diverse generative sources, and photorealistic imagery synthesized using 35 state-of-the-art generative models. To rigorously evaluate cross-domain robustness, we establish a novel and large-scale (100K) out-of-domain benchmark (So-Fake-OOD) featuring synthetic imagery from commercial models explicitly excluded from the training distribution, creating a realistic testbed for evaluating real-world performance. Leveraging these resources, we present So-Fake-R1, an advanced vision-language framework that employs reinforcement learning for highly accurate forgery detection, precise localization, and explainable inference through interpretable visual rationales. Extensive experiments show that So-Fake-R1 outperforms the second-best method, with a 1.3% gain in detection accuracy and a 4.5% increase in localization IoU. By integrating a scalable dataset, a challenging OOD benchmark, and an advanced detection framework, this work establishes a new foundation for social media-centric forgery detection research. The code, models, and datasets will be released publicly.

Evaluating and Explaining Large Language Models for Code Using Syntactic Structures

Large Language Models (LLMs) for code are a family of high-parameter, transformer-based neural networks pre-trained on massive datasets of both natural and programming languages. These models are rapidly being employed in commercial AI-based developer tools, such as GitHub CoPilot. However, measuring and explaining their effectiveness on programming tasks is a challenging proposition, given their size and complexity. The methods for evaluating and explaining LLMs for code are inextricably linked. That is, in order to explain a model's predictions, they must be reliably mapped to fine-grained, understandable concepts. Once this mapping is achieved, new methods for detailed model evaluations are possible. However, most current explainability techniques and evaluation benchmarks focus on model robustness or individual task performance, as opposed to interpreting model predictions. To this end, this paper introduces ASTxplainer, an explainability method specific to LLMs for code that enables both new methods for LLM evaluation and visualizations of LLM predictions that aid end-users in understanding model predictions. At its core, ASTxplainer provides an automated method for aligning token predictions with AST nodes, by extracting and aggregating normalized model logits within AST structures. To demonstrate the practical benefit of ASTxplainer, we illustrate the insights that our framework can provide by performing an empirical evaluation on 12 popular LLMs for code using a curated dataset of the most popular GitHub projects. Additionally, we perform a user study examining the usefulness of an ASTxplainer-derived visualization of model predictions aimed at enabling model users to explain predictions. The results of these studies illustrate the potential for ASTxplainer to provide insights into LLM effectiveness, and aid end-users in understanding predictions.

Pruning by Explaining: A Novel Criterion for Deep Neural Network Pruning

The success of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in various applications is accompanied by a significant increase in computation and parameter storage costs. Recent efforts to reduce these overheads involve pruning and compressing the weights of various layers while at the same time aiming to not sacrifice performance. In this paper, we propose a novel criterion for CNN pruning inspired by neural network interpretability: The most relevant units, i.e. weights or filters, are automatically found using their relevance scores obtained from concepts of explainable AI (XAI). By exploring this idea, we connect the lines of interpretability and model compression research. We show that our proposed method can efficiently prune CNN models in transfer-learning setups in which networks pre-trained on large corpora are adapted to specialized tasks. The method is evaluated on a broad range of computer vision datasets. Notably, our novel criterion is not only competitive or better compared to state-of-the-art pruning criteria when successive retraining is performed, but clearly outperforms these previous criteria in the resource-constrained application scenario in which the data of the task to be transferred to is very scarce and one chooses to refrain from fine-tuning. Our method is able to compress the model iteratively while maintaining or even improving accuracy. At the same time, it has a computational cost in the order of gradient computation and is comparatively simple to apply without the need for tuning hyperparameters for pruning.

Edisum: Summarizing and Explaining Wikipedia Edits at Scale

An edit summary is a succinct comment written by a Wikipedia editor explaining the nature of, and reasons for, an edit to a Wikipedia page. Edit summaries are crucial for maintaining the encyclopedia: they are the first thing seen by content moderators and help them decide whether to accept or reject an edit. Additionally, edit summaries constitute a valuable data source for researchers. Unfortunately, as we show, for many edits, summaries are either missing or incomplete. To overcome this problem and help editors write useful edit summaries, we propose a model for recommending edit summaries generated by a language model trained to produce good edit summaries given the representation of an edit diff. This is a challenging task for multiple reasons, including mixed-quality training data, the need to understand not only what was changed in the article but also why it was changed, and efficiency requirements imposed by the scale of Wikipedia. We address these challenges by curating a mix of human and synthetically generated training data and fine-tuning a generative language model sufficiently small to be used on Wikipedia at scale. Our model performs on par with human editors. Commercial large language models are able to solve this task better than human editors, but would be too expensive to run on Wikipedia at scale. More broadly, this paper showcases how language modeling technology can be used to support humans in maintaining one of the largest and most visible projects on the Web.

Collective eXplainable AI: Explaining Cooperative Strategies and Agent Contribution in Multiagent Reinforcement Learning with Shapley Values

While Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is increasingly expanding more areas of application, little has been applied to make deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) more comprehensible. As RL becomes ubiquitous and used in critical and general public applications, it is essential to develop methods that make it better understood and more interpretable. This study proposes a novel approach to explain cooperative strategies in multiagent RL using Shapley values, a game theory concept used in XAI that successfully explains the rationale behind decisions taken by Machine Learning algorithms. Through testing common assumptions of this technique in two cooperation-centered socially challenging multi-agent environments environments, this article argues that Shapley values are a pertinent way to evaluate the contribution of players in a cooperative multi-agent RL context. To palliate the high overhead of this method, Shapley values are approximated using Monte Carlo sampling. Experimental results on Multiagent Particle and Sequential Social Dilemmas show that Shapley values succeed at estimating the contribution of each agent. These results could have implications that go beyond games in economics, (e.g., for non-discriminatory decision making, ethical and responsible AI-derived decisions or policy making under fairness constraints). They also expose how Shapley values only give general explanations about a model and cannot explain a single run, episode nor justify precise actions taken by agents. Future work should focus on addressing these critical aspects.

ECM: A Unified Electronic Circuit Model for Explaining the Emergence of In-Context Learning and Chain-of-Thought in Large Language Model

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have led to significant successes across various applications, where the most noticeable is to a series of emerging capabilities, particularly in the areas of In-Context Learning (ICL) and Chain-of-Thought (CoT). To better understand and control model performance, many studies have begun investigating the underlying causes of these phenomena and their impact on task outcomes. However, existing explanatory frameworks predominantly focus on isolating and explaining ICL and CoT independently, leading to an incomplete understanding of their combined influence on model performance. To address this gap, we propose the Electronic Circuit Model (ECM), which provides a foundation for developing scalable, learnable policies and improving the management of AI-generated content. Specifically, ECM conceptualizes model behavior as an electronic circuit: ICL is represented as semantic magnetic field to providing an additional voltage following Faraday's Law, while CoT is modeled as series resistors to constrain the model output performance following Ohm's Law. Experimental results demonstrate that the ECM effectively predicts and explains LLM performance across a variety of prompting strategies. Furthermore, we apply ECM to advanced reasoning strategy optimization on a series of tasks, such as the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) and the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO), achieving competitive performance that surpasses nearly 80% of top human competitors.

T-TAME: Trainable Attention Mechanism for Explaining Convolutional Networks and Vision Transformers

The development and adoption of Vision Transformers and other deep-learning architectures for image classification tasks has been rapid. However, the "black box" nature of neural networks is a barrier to adoption in applications where explainability is essential. While some techniques for generating explanations have been proposed, primarily for Convolutional Neural Networks, adapting such techniques to the new paradigm of Vision Transformers is non-trivial. This paper presents T-TAME, Transformer-compatible Trainable Attention Mechanism for Explanations, a general methodology for explaining deep neural networks used in image classification tasks. The proposed architecture and training technique can be easily applied to any convolutional or Vision Transformer-like neural network, using a streamlined training approach. After training, explanation maps can be computed in a single forward pass; these explanation maps are comparable to or outperform the outputs of computationally expensive perturbation-based explainability techniques, achieving SOTA performance. We apply T-TAME to three popular deep learning classifier architectures, VGG-16, ResNet-50, and ViT-B-16, trained on the ImageNet dataset, and we demonstrate improvements over existing state-of-the-art explainability methods. A detailed analysis of the results and an ablation study provide insights into how the T-TAME design choices affect the quality of the generated explanation maps.

AES Systems Are Both Overstable And Oversensitive: Explaining Why And Proposing Defenses

Deep-learning based Automatic Essay Scoring (AES) systems are being actively used by states and language testing agencies alike to evaluate millions of candidates for life-changing decisions ranging from college applications to visa approvals. However, little research has been put to understand and interpret the black-box nature of deep-learning based scoring algorithms. Previous studies indicate that scoring models can be easily fooled. In this paper, we explore the reason behind their surprising adversarial brittleness. We utilize recent advances in interpretability to find the extent to which features such as coherence, content, vocabulary, and relevance are important for automated scoring mechanisms. We use this to investigate the oversensitivity i.e., large change in output score with a little change in input essay content) and overstability i.e., little change in output scores with large changes in input essay content) of AES. Our results indicate that autoscoring models, despite getting trained as "end-to-end" models with rich contextual embeddings such as BERT, behave like bag-of-words models. A few words determine the essay score without the requirement of any context making the model largely overstable. This is in stark contrast to recent probing studies on pre-trained representation learning models, which show that rich linguistic features such as parts-of-speech and morphology are encoded by them. Further, we also find that the models have learnt dataset biases, making them oversensitive. To deal with these issues, we propose detection-based protection models that can detect oversensitivity and overstability causing samples with high accuracies. We find that our proposed models are able to detect unusual attribution patterns and flag adversarial samples successfully.

LLaVA Needs More Knowledge: Retrieval Augmented Natural Language Generation with Knowledge Graph for Explaining Thoracic Pathologies

Generating Natural Language Explanations (NLEs) for model predictions on medical images, particularly those depicting thoracic pathologies, remains a critical and challenging task. Existing methodologies often struggle due to general models' insufficient domain-specific medical knowledge and privacy concerns associated with retrieval-based augmentation techniques. To address these issues, we propose a novel Vision-Language framework augmented with a Knowledge Graph (KG)-based datastore, which enhances the model's understanding by incorporating additional domain-specific medical knowledge essential for generating accurate and informative NLEs. Our framework employs a KG-based retrieval mechanism that not only improves the precision of the generated explanations but also preserves data privacy by avoiding direct data retrieval. The KG datastore is designed as a plug-and-play module, allowing for seamless integration with various model architectures. We introduce and evaluate three distinct frameworks within this paradigm: KG-LLaVA, which integrates the pre-trained LLaVA model with KG-RAG; Med-XPT, a custom framework combining MedCLIP, a transformer-based projector, and GPT-2; and Bio-LLaVA, which adapts LLaVA by incorporating the Bio-ViT-L vision model. These frameworks are validated on the MIMIC-NLE dataset, where they achieve state-of-the-art results, underscoring the effectiveness of KG augmentation in generating high-quality NLEs for thoracic pathologies.

Alignment faking in large language models

We present a demonstration of a large language model engaging in alignment faking: selectively complying with its training objective in training to prevent modification of its behavior out of training. First, we give Claude 3 Opus a system prompt stating it is being trained to answer all queries, even harmful ones, which conflicts with its prior training to refuse such queries. To allow the model to infer when it is in training, we say it will be trained only on conversations with free users, not paid users. We find the model complies with harmful queries from free users 14% of the time, versus almost never for paid users. Explaining this gap, in almost all cases where the model complies with a harmful query from a free user, we observe explicit alignment-faking reasoning, with the model stating it is strategically answering harmful queries in training to preserve its preferred harmlessness behavior out of training. Next, we study a more realistic setting where information about the training process is provided not in a system prompt, but by training on synthetic documents that mimic pre-training data--and observe similar alignment faking. Finally, we study the effect of actually training the model to comply with harmful queries via reinforcement learning, which we find increases the rate of alignment-faking reasoning to 78%, though also increases compliance even out of training. We additionally observe other behaviors such as the model exfiltrating its weights when given an easy opportunity. While we made alignment faking easier by telling the model when and by what criteria it was being trained, we did not instruct the model to fake alignment or give it any explicit goal. As future models might infer information about their training process without being told, our results suggest a risk of alignment faking in future models, whether due to a benign preference--as in this case--or not.

CasiMedicos-Arg: A Medical Question Answering Dataset Annotated with Explanatory Argumentative Structures

Explaining Artificial Intelligence (AI) decisions is a major challenge nowadays in AI, in particular when applied to sensitive scenarios like medicine and law. However, the need to explain the rationale behind decisions is a main issue also for human-based deliberation as it is important to justify why a certain decision has been taken. Resident medical doctors for instance are required not only to provide a (possibly correct) diagnosis, but also to explain how they reached a certain conclusion. Developing new tools to aid residents to train their explanation skills is therefore a central objective of AI in education. In this paper, we follow this direction, and we present, to the best of our knowledge, the first multilingual dataset for Medical Question Answering where correct and incorrect diagnoses for a clinical case are enriched with a natural language explanation written by doctors. These explanations have been manually annotated with argument components (i.e., premise, claim) and argument relations (i.e., attack, support), resulting in the Multilingual CasiMedicos-Arg dataset which consists of 558 clinical cases in four languages (English, Spanish, French, Italian) with explanations, where we annotated 5021 claims, 2313 premises, 2431 support relations, and 1106 attack relations. We conclude by showing how competitive baselines perform over this challenging dataset for the argument mining task.

Black Swan: Abductive and Defeasible Video Reasoning in Unpredictable Events

The commonsense reasoning capabilities of vision-language models (VLMs), especially in abductive reasoning and defeasible reasoning, remain poorly understood. Most benchmarks focus on typical visual scenarios, making it difficult to discern whether model performance stems from keen perception and reasoning skills, or reliance on pure statistical recall. We argue that by focusing on atypical events in videos, clearer insights can be gained on the core capabilities of VLMs. Explaining and understanding such out-of-distribution events requires models to extend beyond basic pattern recognition and regurgitation of their prior knowledge. To this end, we introduce BlackSwanSuite, a benchmark for evaluating VLMs' ability to reason about unexpected events through abductive and defeasible tasks. Our tasks artificially limit the amount of visual information provided to models while questioning them about hidden unexpected events, or provide new visual information that could change an existing hypothesis about the event. We curate a comprehensive benchmark suite comprising over 3,800 MCQ, 4,900 generative and 6,700 yes/no tasks, spanning 1,655 videos. After extensively evaluating various state-of-the-art VLMs, including GPT-4o and Gemini 1.5 Pro, as well as open-source VLMs such as LLaVA-Video, we find significant performance gaps of up to 32% from humans on these tasks. Our findings reveal key limitations in current VLMs, emphasizing the need for enhanced model architectures and training strategies.

Multimodal Coherent Explanation Generation of Robot Failures

The explainability of a robot's actions is crucial to its acceptance in social spaces. Explaining why a robot fails to complete a given task is particularly important for non-expert users to be aware of the robot's capabilities and limitations. So far, research on explaining robot failures has only considered generating textual explanations, even though several studies have shown the benefits of multimodal ones. However, a simple combination of multiple modalities may lead to semantic incoherence between the information across different modalities - a problem that is not well-studied. An incoherent multimodal explanation can be difficult to understand, and it may even become inconsistent with what the robot and the human observe and how they perform reasoning with the observations. Such inconsistencies may lead to wrong conclusions about the robot's capabilities. In this paper, we introduce an approach to generate coherent multimodal explanations by checking the logical coherence of explanations from different modalities, followed by refinements as required. We propose a classification approach for coherence assessment, where we evaluate if an explanation logically follows another. Our experiments suggest that fine-tuning a neural network that was pre-trained to recognize textual entailment, performs well for coherence assessment of multimodal explanations. Code & data: https://pradippramanick.github.io/coherent-explain/.

Learning to Generate Explainable Stock Predictions using Self-Reflective Large Language Models

Explaining stock predictions is generally a difficult task for traditional non-generative deep learning models, where explanations are limited to visualizing the attention weights on important texts. Today, Large Language Models (LLMs) present a solution to this problem, given their known capabilities to generate human-readable explanations for their decision-making process. However, the task of stock prediction remains challenging for LLMs, as it requires the ability to weigh the varying impacts of chaotic social texts on stock prices. The problem gets progressively harder with the introduction of the explanation component, which requires LLMs to explain verbally why certain factors are more important than the others. On the other hand, to fine-tune LLMs for such a task, one would need expert-annotated samples of explanation for every stock movement in the training set, which is expensive and impractical to scale. To tackle these issues, we propose our Summarize-Explain-Predict (SEP) framework, which utilizes a self-reflective agent and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) to let a LLM teach itself how to generate explainable stock predictions in a fully autonomous manner. The reflective agent learns how to explain past stock movements through self-reasoning, while the PPO trainer trains the model to generate the most likely explanations from input texts. The training samples for the PPO trainer are also the responses generated during the reflective process, which eliminates the need for human annotators. Using our SEP framework, we fine-tune a LLM that can outperform both traditional deep-learning and LLM methods in prediction accuracy and Matthews correlation coefficient for the stock classification task. To justify the generalization capability of our framework, we further test it on the portfolio construction task, and demonstrate its effectiveness through various portfolio metrics.

Understanding Warmup-Stable-Decay Learning Rates: A River Valley Loss Landscape Perspective

Training language models currently requires pre-determining a fixed compute budget because the typical cosine learning rate schedule depends on the total number of steps. In contrast, the Warmup-Stable-Decay (WSD) schedule uses a constant learning rate to produce a main branch of iterates that can in principle continue indefinitely without a pre-specified compute budget. Then, given any compute budget, one can branch out from the main branch at a proper time with a rapidly decaying learning rate to produce a strong model. Empirically, WSD generates a non-traditional loss curve: the loss remains elevated during the stable phase but sharply declines during the decay phase. Towards explaining this phenomenon, we conjecture that pretraining loss exhibits a river valley landscape, which resembles a deep valley with a river at its bottom. Under this assumption, we show that during the stable phase, the iterate undergoes large oscillations due to the high learning rate, yet it progresses swiftly along the river. During the decay phase, the rapidly dropping learning rate minimizes the iterate's oscillations, moving it closer to the river and revealing true optimization progress. Therefore, the sustained high learning rate phase and fast decaying phase are responsible for progress in the river and the mountain directions respectively, and are both critical. Our analysis predicts phenomenons consistent with empirical observations and shows that this landscape can emerge from pretraining on a simple bi-gram dataset. Inspired by the theory, we introduce WSD-S, a variant of WSD that reuses previous checkpoints' decay phases and keeps only one main branch, where we resume from a decayed checkpoint. WSD-S empirically outperforms WSD and Cyclic-Cosine in obtaining multiple language model checkpoints across various compute budgets in a single run for parameters scaling from 0.1B to 1.2B.

BoxingGym: Benchmarking Progress in Automated Experimental Design and Model Discovery

Understanding the world and explaining it with scientific theories is a central aspiration of artificial intelligence research. Proposing theories, designing experiments to test them, and then revising them based on data are fundamental to scientific discovery. Despite the significant promise of LLM-based scientific agents, no benchmarks systematically test LLM's ability to propose scientific models, collect experimental data, and revise them in light of new data. We introduce BoxingGym, a benchmark with 10 environments for systematically evaluating both experimental design (e.g. collecting data to test a scientific theory) and model discovery (e.g. proposing and revising scientific theories). To enable tractable and quantitative evaluation, we implement each environment as a generative probabilistic model with which a scientific agent can run interactive experiments. These probabilistic models are drawn from various real-world scientific domains ranging from psychology to ecology. To quantitatively evaluate a scientific agent's ability to collect informative experimental data, we compute the expected information gain (EIG), an information-theoretic quantity which measures how much an experiment reduces uncertainty about the parameters of a generative model. A good scientific theory is a concise and predictive explanation. Therefore, to quantitatively evaluate model discovery, we ask a scientific agent to explain their model and then assess whether this explanation enables another scientific agent to make reliable predictions about this environment. In addition to this explanation-based evaluation, we compute standard model evaluation metrics such as prediction errors. We find that current LLMs, such as GPT-4o, struggle with both experimental design and model discovery. We find that augmenting the LLM-based agent with an explicit statistical model does not reliably improve these results.

HateDay: Insights from a Global Hate Speech Dataset Representative of a Day on Twitter

To tackle the global challenge of online hate speech, a large body of research has developed detection models to flag hate speech in the sea of online content. Yet, due to systematic biases in evaluation datasets, detection performance in real-world settings remains unclear, let alone across geographies. To address this issue, we introduce HateDay, the first global hate speech dataset representative of social media settings, randomly sampled from all tweets posted on September 21, 2022 for eight languages and four English-speaking countries. Using HateDay, we show how the prevalence and composition of hate speech varies across languages and countries. We also find that evaluation on academic hate speech datasets overestimates real-world detection performance, which we find is very low, especially for non-European languages. We identify several factors explaining poor performance, including models' inability to distinguish between hate and offensive speech, and the misalignment between academic target focus and real-world target prevalence. We finally argue that such low performance renders hate speech moderation with public detection models unfeasible, even in a human-in-the-loop setting which we find is prohibitively costly. Overall, we emphasize the need to evaluate future detection models from academia and platforms in real-world settings to address this global challenge.

FinGPT: Instruction Tuning Benchmark for Open-Source Large Language Models in Financial Datasets

In the swiftly expanding domain of Natural Language Processing (NLP), the potential of GPT-based models for the financial sector is increasingly evident. However, the integration of these models with financial datasets presents challenges, notably in determining their adeptness and relevance. This paper introduces a distinctive approach anchored in the Instruction Tuning paradigm for open-source large language models, specifically adapted for financial contexts. Through this methodology, we capitalize on the interoperability of open-source models, ensuring a seamless and transparent integration. We begin by explaining the Instruction Tuning paradigm, highlighting its effectiveness for immediate integration. The paper presents a benchmarking scheme designed for end-to-end training and testing, employing a cost-effective progression. Firstly, we assess basic competencies and fundamental tasks, such as Named Entity Recognition (NER) and sentiment analysis to enhance specialization. Next, we delve into a comprehensive model, executing multi-task operations by amalgamating all instructional tunings to examine versatility. Finally, we explore the zero-shot capabilities by earmarking unseen tasks and incorporating novel datasets to understand adaptability in uncharted terrains. Such a paradigm fortifies the principles of openness and reproducibility, laying a robust foundation for future investigations in open-source financial large language models (FinLLMs).

When Do Curricula Work in Federated Learning?

An oft-cited open problem of federated learning is the existence of data heterogeneity at the clients. One pathway to understanding the drastic accuracy drop in federated learning is by scrutinizing the behavior of the clients' deep models on data with different levels of "difficulty", which has been left unaddressed. In this paper, we investigate a different and rarely studied dimension of FL: ordered learning. Specifically, we aim to investigate how ordered learning principles can contribute to alleviating the heterogeneity effects in FL. We present theoretical analysis and conduct extensive empirical studies on the efficacy of orderings spanning three kinds of learning: curriculum, anti-curriculum, and random curriculum. We find that curriculum learning largely alleviates non-IIDness. Interestingly, the more disparate the data distributions across clients the more they benefit from ordered learning. We provide analysis explaining this phenomenon, specifically indicating how curriculum training appears to make the objective landscape progressively less convex, suggesting fast converging iterations at the beginning of the training procedure. We derive quantitative results of convergence for both convex and nonconvex objectives by modeling the curriculum training on federated devices as local SGD with locally biased stochastic gradients. Also, inspired by ordered learning, we propose a novel client selection technique that benefits from the real-world disparity in the clients. Our proposed approach to client selection has a synergic effect when applied together with ordered learning in FL.

Probabilistic Conceptual Explainers: Trustworthy Conceptual Explanations for Vision Foundation Models

Vision transformers (ViTs) have emerged as a significant area of focus, particularly for their capacity to be jointly trained with large language models and to serve as robust vision foundation models. Yet, the development of trustworthy explanation methods for ViTs has lagged, particularly in the context of post-hoc interpretations of ViT predictions. Existing sub-image selection approaches, such as feature-attribution and conceptual models, fall short in this regard. This paper proposes five desiderata for explaining ViTs -- faithfulness, stability, sparsity, multi-level structure, and parsimony -- and demonstrates the inadequacy of current methods in meeting these criteria comprehensively. We introduce a variational Bayesian explanation framework, dubbed ProbAbilistic Concept Explainers (PACE), which models the distributions of patch embeddings to provide trustworthy post-hoc conceptual explanations. Our qualitative analysis reveals the distributions of patch-level concepts, elucidating the effectiveness of ViTs by modeling the joint distribution of patch embeddings and ViT's predictions. Moreover, these patch-level explanations bridge the gap between image-level and dataset-level explanations, thus completing the multi-level structure of PACE. Through extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets, we demonstrate that PACE surpasses state-of-the-art methods in terms of the defined desiderata.

A Common Pitfall of Margin-based Language Model Alignment: Gradient Entanglement

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has become the predominant approach for language model (LM) alignment. At its core, RLHF uses a margin-based loss for preference optimization, specifying ideal LM behavior only by the difference between preferred and dispreferred responses. In this paper, we identify a common pitfall of margin-based methods -- the under-specification of ideal LM behavior on preferred and dispreferred responses individually, which leads to two unintended consequences as the margin increases: (1) The probability of dispreferred (e.g., unsafe) responses may increase, resulting in potential safety alignment failures. (2) The probability of preferred responses may decrease, even when those responses are ideal. We demystify the reasons behind these problematic behaviors: margin-based losses couple the change in the preferred probability to the gradient of the dispreferred one, and vice versa, often preventing the preferred probability from increasing while the dispreferred one decreases, and thus causing a synchronized increase or decrease in both probabilities. We term this effect, inherent in margin-based objectives, gradient entanglement. Formally, we derive conditions for general margin-based alignment objectives under which gradient entanglement becomes concerning: the inner product of the gradients of preferred and dispreferred log-probabilities is large relative to the individual gradient norms. We theoretically investigate why such inner products can be large when aligning language models and empirically validate our findings. Empirical implications of our framework extend to explaining important differences in the training dynamics of various preference optimization algorithms, and suggesting potential algorithm designs to mitigate the under-specification issue of margin-based methods and thereby improving language model alignment.

Token Activation Map to Visually Explain Multimodal LLMs

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) are broadly empowering various fields. Despite their advancements, the explainability of MLLMs remains less explored, hindering deeper understanding, model credibility, and effective visualization. Unlike conventional vision models (e.g., CNNs, ViTs, CLIP) that produce a single output, MLLMs generate sequences of tokens progressively, where each generated token depends on the previous context. Therefore, earlier context tokens can introduce redundant activations that interfere with the explanation of later tokens beyond their original information. Existing studies often overlook this issue, but our observations reveal that these redundant correlations can significantly hurt the reliability of explanations. To address this, we propose an estimated causal inference method to mitigate the interference of context to achieve high-quality MLLM explanation, with a novel rank Gaussian filter to further reduce activation noises. We term this method Token Activation Map (TAM) to highlight the consideration of interactions between tokens. TAM also indicates that it excels at explaining multiple tokens of MLLM, which is different from the Class Activation Map (CAM) for a single prediction. Our TAM method significantly outperforms existing SoTA methods, showcasing high-quality visualization results that can be utilized for various scenarios, such as object localization, failure case analysis, video visualization, MLLMs visual comparison, and model understanding (e.g., color, shape, action, location, visual reasoning, multi-turn conversation, etc). The code is available atgithub.com/xmed-lab/TAM.

TinyChart: Efficient Chart Understanding with Visual Token Merging and Program-of-Thoughts Learning

Charts are important for presenting and explaining complex data relationships. Recently, multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities in various chart understanding tasks. However, the sheer size of these models in terms of parameters and computational requirements limits their use in resource-constrained environments. In this paper, we present TinyChart, an efficient MLLM for chart understanding with only 3B parameters. TinyChart overcomes two key challenges in efficient chart understanding: (1) reduce the burden of learning numerical computations through a Program-of-Thoughts (PoT) learning strategy, which trains the model to generate Python programs for numerical calculations, and (2) reduce lengthy vision feature sequences produced by the vision transformer for high-resolution images through a Vision Token Merging module, which gradually merges most similar vision tokens. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our 3B TinyChart achieves SOTA performance on a variety of chart understanding benchmarks including ChartQA, Chart-to-Text, Chart-to-Table, OpenCQA, and ChartX. It outperforms several chart understanding MLLM with up to 13B parameters such as ChartLlama and ChartAst, and close-sourced general-purpose MLLM GPT-4V on ChartQA. It also demonstrates its superior efficiency with higher throughput during inference due to a smaller model scale and more efficient vision encoding. Our code and model are available at https://github.com/X-PLUG/mPLUG-DocOwl/tree/main/TinyChart.

Explain with Visual Keypoints Like a Real Mentor! A Benchmark for Multimodal Solution Explanation

With the rapid advancement of mathematical reasoning capabilities in Large Language Models (LLMs), AI systems are increasingly being adopted in educational settings to support students' comprehension of problem-solving processes. However, a critical component remains underexplored in current LLM-generated explanations: visual explanation. In real-world instructional contexts, human tutors routinely employ visual aids - such as diagrams, markings, and highlights - to enhance conceptual clarity. To bridge this gap, we introduce a novel task of visual solution explanation, which requires generating explanations that incorporate newly introduced visual elements essential for understanding (e.g., auxiliary lines, annotations, or geometric constructions). To evaluate model performance on this task, we propose MathExplain, a multimodal benchmark consisting of 997 math problems annotated with visual keypoints and corresponding explanatory text that references those elements. Our empirical results show that while some closed-source models demonstrate promising capabilities on visual solution-explaining, current open-source general-purpose models perform inconsistently, particularly in identifying relevant visual components and producing coherent keypoint-based explanations. We expect that visual solution-explaining and the MathExplain dataset will catalyze further research on multimodal LLMs in education and advance their deployment as effective, explanation-oriented AI tutors. Code and data will be released publicly.

Free from Bellman Completeness: Trajectory Stitching via Model-based Return-conditioned Supervised Learning

Off-policy dynamic programming (DP) techniques such as Q-learning have proven to be important in sequential decision-making problems. In the presence of function approximation, however, these techniques often diverge due to the absence of Bellman completeness in the function classes considered, a crucial condition for the success of DP-based methods. In this paper, we show how off-policy learning techniques based on return-conditioned supervised learning (RCSL) are able to circumvent these challenges of Bellman completeness, converging under significantly more relaxed assumptions inherited from supervised learning. We prove there exists a natural environment in which if one uses two-layer multilayer perceptron as the function approximator, the layer width needs to grow linearly with the state space size to satisfy Bellman completeness while a constant layer width is enough for RCSL. These findings take a step towards explaining the superior empirical performance of RCSL methods compared to DP-based methods in environments with near-optimal datasets. Furthermore, in order to learn from sub-optimal datasets, we propose a simple framework called MBRCSL, granting RCSL methods the ability of dynamic programming to stitch together segments from distinct trajectories. MBRCSL leverages learned dynamics models and forward sampling to accomplish trajectory stitching while avoiding the need for Bellman completeness that plagues all dynamic programming algorithms. We propose both theoretical analysis and experimental evaluation to back these claims, outperforming state-of-the-art model-free and model-based offline RL algorithms across several simulated robotics problems.