Daily Papers

We introduce an approach for detecting and tracking detailed 3D poses of multiple people from a single monocular camera stream. Our system maintains temporally coherent predictions in crowded scenes filled with difficult poses and occlusions. Our model performs both strong per-frame detection and a learned pose update to track people from frame to frame. Rather than match detections across time, poses are updated directly from a new input image, which enables online tracking through occlusion. We train on numerous image and video datasets leveraging pseudo-labeled annotations to produce a model that matches state-of-the-art systems in 3D pose estimation accuracy while being faster and more accurate in tracking multiple people through time. Code and weights are provided at https://github.com/apple/ml-comotion

Models that can simulate how environments change in response to actions can be used by agents to plan and act efficiently. We improve on previous environment simulators from high-dimensional pixel observations by introducing recurrent neural networks that are able to make temporally and spatially coherent predictions for hundreds of time-steps into the future. We present an in-depth analysis of the factors affecting performance, providing the most extensive attempt to advance the understanding of the properties of these models. We address the issue of computationally inefficiency with a model that does not need to generate a high-dimensional image at each time-step. We show that our approach can be used to improve exploration and is adaptable to many diverse environments, namely 10 Atari games, a 3D car racing environment, and complex 3D mazes.

We introduce dense vision transformers, an architecture that leverages vision transformers in place of convolutional networks as a backbone for dense prediction tasks. We assemble tokens from various stages of the vision transformer into image-like representations at various resolutions and progressively combine them into full-resolution predictions using a convolutional decoder. The transformer backbone processes representations at a constant and relatively high resolution and has a global receptive field at every stage. These properties allow the dense vision transformer to provide finer-grained and more globally coherent predictions when compared to fully-convolutional networks. Our experiments show that this architecture yields substantial improvements on dense prediction tasks, especially when a large amount of training data is available. For monocular depth estimation, we observe an improvement of up to 28% in relative performance when compared to a state-of-the-art fully-convolutional network. When applied to semantic segmentation, dense vision transformers set a new state of the art on ADE20K with 49.02% mIoU. We further show that the architecture can be fine-tuned on smaller datasets such as NYUv2, KITTI, and Pascal Context where it also sets the new state of the art. Our models are available at https://github.com/intel-isl/DPT.

Machine learning models can make critical errors that are easily hidden within vast amounts of data. Such errors often run counter to rules based on human intuition. However, rules based on human knowledge are challenging to scale or to even formalize. We thereby seek to infer statistical rules from the data and quantify the extent to which a model has learned them. We propose a framework SQRL that integrates logic-based methods with statistical inference to derive these rules from a model's training data without supervision. We further show how to adapt models at test time to reduce rule violations and produce more coherent predictions. SQRL generates up to 300K rules over datasets from vision, tabular, and language settings. We uncover up to 158K violations of those rules by state-of-the-art models for classification, object detection, and data imputation. Test-time adaptation reduces these violations by up to 68.7% with relative performance improvement up to 32%. SQRL is available at https://github.com/DebugML/sqrl.

We present UniFuture, a simple yet effective driving world model that seamlessly integrates future scene generation and perception within a single framework. Unlike existing models focusing solely on pixel-level future prediction or geometric reasoning, our approach jointly models future appearance (i.e., RGB image) and geometry (i.e., depth), ensuring coherent predictions. Specifically, during the training, we first introduce a Dual-Latent Sharing scheme, which transfers image and depth sequence in a shared latent space, allowing both modalities to benefit from shared feature learning. Additionally, we propose a Multi-scale Latent Interaction mechanism, which facilitates bidirectional refinement between image and depth features at multiple spatial scales, effectively enhancing geometry consistency and perceptual alignment. During testing, our UniFuture can easily predict high-consistency future image-depth pairs by only using the current image as input. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset demonstrate that UniFuture outperforms specialized models on future generation and perception tasks, highlighting the advantages of a unified, structurally-aware world model. The project page is at https://github.com/dk-liang/UniFuture.

When applied to question answering and other text generation tasks, language models (LMs) may be queried generatively (by sampling answers from their output distribution) or discriminatively (by using them to score or rank a set of candidate outputs). These procedures sometimes yield very different predictions. How do we reconcile mutually incompatible scoring procedures to obtain coherent LM predictions? We introduce a new, a training-free, game-theoretic procedure for language model decoding. Our approach casts language model decoding as a regularized imperfect-information sequential signaling game - which we term the CONSENSUS GAME - in which a GENERATOR seeks to communicate an abstract correctness parameter using natural language sentences to a DISCRIMINATOR. We develop computational procedures for finding approximate equilibria of this game, resulting in a decoding algorithm we call EQUILIBRIUM-RANKING. Applied to a large number of tasks (including reading comprehension, commonsense reasoning, mathematical problem-solving, and dialog), EQUILIBRIUM-RANKING consistently, and sometimes substantially, improves performance over existing LM decoding procedures - on multiple benchmarks, we observe that applying EQUILIBRIUM-RANKING to LLaMA-7B outperforms the much larger LLaMA-65B and PaLM-540B models. These results highlight the promise of game-theoretic tools for addressing fundamental challenges of truthfulness and consistency in LMs.

We introduce IntrinsiX, a novel method that generates high-quality intrinsic images from text description. In contrast to existing text-to-image models whose outputs contain baked-in scene lighting, our approach predicts physically-based rendering (PBR) maps. This enables the generated outputs to be used for content creation scenarios in core graphics applications that facilitate re-lighting, editing, and texture generation tasks. In order to train our generator, we exploit strong image priors, and pre-train separate models for each PBR material component (albedo, roughness, metallic, normals). We then align these models with a new cross-intrinsic attention formulation that concatenates key and value features in a consistent fashion. This allows us to exchange information between each output modality and to obtain semantically coherent PBR predictions. To ground each intrinsic component, we propose a rendering loss which provides image-space signals to constrain the model, thus facilitating sharp details also in the output BRDF properties. Our results demonstrate detailed intrinsic generation with strong generalization capabilities that outperforms existing intrinsic image decomposition methods used with generated images by a significant margin. Finally, we show a series of applications, including re-lighting, editing, and text-conditioned room-scale PBR texture generation.

We present a novel diffusion-based approach for coherent 3D scene reconstruction from a single RGB image. Our method utilizes an image-conditioned 3D scene diffusion model to simultaneously denoise the 3D poses and geometries of all objects within the scene. Motivated by the ill-posed nature of the task and to obtain consistent scene reconstruction results, we learn a generative scene prior by conditioning on all scene objects simultaneously to capture the scene context and by allowing the model to learn inter-object relationships throughout the diffusion process. We further propose an efficient surface alignment loss to facilitate training even in the absence of full ground-truth annotation, which is common in publicly available datasets. This loss leverages an expressive shape representation, which enables direct point sampling from intermediate shape predictions. By framing the task of single RGB image 3D scene reconstruction as a conditional diffusion process, our approach surpasses current state-of-the-art methods, achieving a 12.04% improvement in AP3D on SUN RGB-D and a 13.43% increase in F-Score on Pix3D.

Starting with early successes in computer vision tasks, deep learning based techniques have since overtaken state of the art approaches in a multitude of domains. However, it has been demonstrated time and again that these techniques fail to capture semantic context and logical constraints, instead often relying on spurious correlations to arrive at the answer. Since application of deep learning techniques to critical scenarios are dependent on adherence to domain specific constraints, several attempts have been made to address this issue. One limitation holding back a thorough exploration of this area, is a lack of suitable datasets which feature a rich set of rules. In order to address this, we present the ChessVision Dataset, consisting of 200,000+ images of annotated chess games in progress, requiring recreation of the game state from its corresponding image. This is accompanied by a curated set of rules which constrains the set of predictions to "reasonable" game states, and are designed to probe key semantic abilities like localization and enumeration. Alongside standard metrics, additional metrics to measure performance with regards to logical consistency is presented. We analyze several popular and state of the art vision models on this task, and show that, although their performance on standard metrics are laudable, they produce a plethora of incoherent results, indicating that this dataset presents a significant challenge for future works.

Text-to-video diffusion models are notoriously limited in their ability to model temporal aspects such as motion, physics, and dynamic interactions. Existing approaches address this limitation by retraining the model or introducing external conditioning signals to enforce temporal consistency. In this work, we explore whether a meaningful temporal representation can be extracted directly from the predictions of a pre-trained model without any additional training or auxiliary inputs. We introduce FlowMo, a novel training-free guidance method that enhances motion coherence using only the model's own predictions in each diffusion step. FlowMo first derives an appearance-debiased temporal representation by measuring the distance between latents corresponding to consecutive frames. This highlights the implicit temporal structure predicted by the model. It then estimates motion coherence by measuring the patch-wise variance across the temporal dimension and guides the model to reduce this variance dynamically during sampling. Extensive experiments across multiple text-to-video models demonstrate that FlowMo significantly improves motion coherence without sacrificing visual quality or prompt alignment, offering an effective plug-and-play solution for enhancing the temporal fidelity of pre-trained video diffusion models.

Few-shot Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting has demonstrated strong performance in improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). While theoretical investigations have been conducted to understand CoT, the underlying transformer used in these studies isolates the CoT reasoning process into separated in-context learning steps (Stepwise ICL). In this work, we theoretically show that, compared to Stepwise ICL, the transformer gains better error correction ability and more accurate predictions if the reasoning from earlier steps (Coherent CoT) is integrated. Given that this coherent reasoning changes the behavior of the transformer, we further investigate the sensitivity of the transformer with Coherent CoT when the demonstration examples are corrupted at the inference stage. Our theoretical results indicate that the transformer is more sensitive to errors in intermediate reasoning steps than the final outcome. Building upon this observation, we propose an improvement on CoT by incorporating both correct and incorrect reasoning paths in the demonstration. Our experiments validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

To harness the power of large language models in safety-critical domains we need to ensure the explainability of their predictions. However, despite the significant attention to model interpretability, there remains an unexplored domain in explaining sequence-to-sequence tasks using methods tailored for textual data. This paper introduces SyntaxShap, a local, model-agnostic explainability method for text generation that takes into consideration the syntax in the text data. The presented work extends Shapley values to account for parsing-based syntactic dependencies. Taking a game theoric approach, SyntaxShap only considers coalitions constraint by the dependency tree. We adopt a model-based evaluation to compare SyntaxShap and its weighted form to state-of-the-art explainability methods adapted to text generation tasks, using diverse metrics including faithfulness, complexity, coherency, and semantic alignment of the explanations to the model. We show that our syntax-aware method produces explanations that help build more faithful, coherent, and interpretable explanations for predictions by autoregressive models.

We introduce a novel neural network, SkyReconNet, which combines the expanded receptive fields of dilated convolutional layers along with standard convolutions, to capture both the global and local features for reconstructing the missing information in an image. We implement our network to inpaint the masked regions in a full-sky Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) map. Inpainting CMB maps is a particularly formidable challenge when dealing with extensive and irregular masks, such as galactic masks which can obscure substantial fractions of the sky. The hybrid design of SkyReconNet leverages the strengths of standard and dilated convolutions to accurately predict CMB fluctuations in the masked regions, by effectively utilizing the information from surrounding unmasked areas. During training, the network optimizes its weights by minimizing a composite loss function that combines the Structural Similarity Index Measure (SSIM) and mean squared error (MSE). SSIM preserves the essential structural features of the CMB, ensuring an accurate and coherent reconstruction of the missing CMB fluctuations, while MSE minimizes the pixel-wise deviations, enhancing the overall accuracy of the predictions. The predicted CMB maps and their corresponding angular power spectra align closely with the targets, achieving the performance limited only by the fundamental uncertainty of cosmic variance. The network's generic architecture enables application to other physics-based challenges involving data with missing or defective pixels, systematic artefacts etc. Our results demonstrate its effectiveness in addressing the challenges posed by large irregular masks, offering a significant inpainting tool not only for CMB analyses but also for image-based experiments across disciplines where such data imperfections are prevalent.

Interpretability has become an important topic of research as more machine learning (ML) models are deployed and widely used to make important decisions. Most of the current explanation methods provide explanations through feature importance scores, which identify features that are important for each individual input. However, how to systematically summarize and interpret such per sample feature importance scores itself is challenging. In this work, we propose principles and desiderata for concept based explanation, which goes beyond per-sample features to identify higher-level human-understandable concepts that apply across the entire dataset. We develop a new algorithm, ACE, to automatically extract visual concepts. Our systematic experiments demonstrate that \alg discovers concepts that are human-meaningful, coherent and important for the neural network's predictions.

We introduce GraphDOP, a new data-driven, end-to-end forecast system developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) that is trained and initialised exclusively from Earth System observations, with no physics-based (re)analysis inputs or feedbacks. GraphDOP learns the correlations between observed quantities - such as brightness temperatures from polar orbiters and geostationary satellites - and geophysical quantities of interest (that are measured by conventional observations), to form a coherent latent representation of Earth System state dynamics and physical processes, and is capable of producing skilful predictions of relevant weather parameters up to five days into the future.

Current high-performance semantic segmentation models are purely data-driven sub-symbolic approaches and blind to the structured nature of the visual world. This is in stark contrast to human cognition which abstracts visual perceptions at multiple levels and conducts symbolic reasoning with such structured abstraction. To fill these fundamental gaps, we devise LOGICSEG, a holistic visual semantic parser that integrates neural inductive learning and logic reasoning with both rich data and symbolic knowledge. In particular, the semantic concepts of interest are structured as a hierarchy, from which a set of constraints are derived for describing the symbolic relations and formalized as first-order logic rules. After fuzzy logic-based continuous relaxation, logical formulae are grounded onto data and neural computational graphs, hence enabling logic-induced network training. During inference, logical constraints are packaged into an iterative process and injected into the network in a form of several matrix multiplications, so as to achieve hierarchy-coherent prediction with logic reasoning. These designs together make LOGICSEG a general and compact neural-logic machine that is readily integrated into existing segmentation models. Extensive experiments over four datasets with various segmentation models and backbones verify the effectiveness and generality of LOGICSEG. We believe this study opens a new avenue for visual semantic parsing.

Pre-trained language models (PLMs) have shown impressive performance in various language tasks. However, they are prone to spurious correlations, and often generate illusory information. In real-world applications, PLMs should justify decisions with formalized, coherent reasoning chains, but this challenge remains under-explored. Cognitive psychology theorizes that humans are capable of utilizing fast and intuitive heuristic thinking to make decisions based on past experience, then rationalizing the decisions through slower and deliberative analytic reasoning. We incorporate these interlinked dual processes in fine-tuning and in-context learning with PLMs, applying them to two language understanding tasks that require coherent physical commonsense reasoning. We show that our proposed Heuristic-Analytic Reasoning (HAR) strategies drastically improve the coherence of rationalizations for model decisions, yielding state-of-the-art results on Tiered Reasoning for Intuitive Physics (TRIP). We also find that this improved coherence is a direct result of more faithful attention to relevant language context in each step of reasoning. Our findings suggest that human-like reasoning strategies can effectively improve the coherence and reliability of PLM reasoning.

Forecasting is an important task in many domains, such as technology and economics. However existing forecasting benchmarks largely lack comprehensive confidence assessment, focus on limited question types, and often consist of artificial questions that do not align with real-world human forecasting needs. To address these gaps, we introduce FOReCAst (Future Outcome Reasoning and Confidence Assessment), a benchmark that evaluates models' ability to make predictions and their confidence in them. FOReCAst spans diverse forecasting scenarios involving Boolean questions, timeframe prediction, and quantity estimation, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of both prediction accuracy and confidence calibration for real-world applications.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to convey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Understanding why a model makes a certain prediction can be as crucial as the prediction's accuracy in many applications. However, the highest accuracy for large modern datasets is often achieved by complex models that even experts struggle to interpret, such as ensemble or deep learning models, creating a tension between accuracy and interpretability. In response, various methods have recently been proposed to help users interpret the predictions of complex models, but it is often unclear how these methods are related and when one method is preferable over another. To address this problem, we present a unified framework for interpreting predictions, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations). SHAP assigns each feature an importance value for a particular prediction. Its novel components include: (1) the identification of a new class of additive feature importance measures, and (2) theoretical results showing there is a unique solution in this class with a set of desirable properties. The new class unifies six existing methods, notable because several recent methods in the class lack the proposed desirable properties. Based on insights from this unification, we present new methods that show improved computational performance and/or better consistency with human intuition than previous approaches.

The explainability of a robot's actions is crucial to its acceptance in social spaces. Explaining why a robot fails to complete a given task is particularly important for non-expert users to be aware of the robot's capabilities and limitations. So far, research on explaining robot failures has only considered generating textual explanations, even though several studies have shown the benefits of multimodal ones. However, a simple combination of multiple modalities may lead to semantic incoherence between the information across different modalities - a problem that is not well-studied. An incoherent multimodal explanation can be difficult to understand, and it may even become inconsistent with what the robot and the human observe and how they perform reasoning with the observations. Such inconsistencies may lead to wrong conclusions about the robot's capabilities. In this paper, we introduce an approach to generate coherent multimodal explanations by checking the logical coherence of explanations from different modalities, followed by refinements as required. We propose a classification approach for coherence assessment, where we evaluate if an explanation logically follows another. Our experiments suggest that fine-tuning a neural network that was pre-trained to recognize textual entailment, performs well for coherence assessment of multimodal explanations. Code & data: https://pradippramanick.github.io/coherent-explain/.

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

Motivated by recent advances in large language models for Natural Language Processing (NLP), we design a time-series foundation model for forecasting whose out-of-the-box zero-shot performance on a variety of public datasets comes close to the accuracy of state-of-the-art supervised forecasting models for each individual dataset. Our model is based on pretraining a patched-decoder style attention model on a large time-series corpus, and can work well across different forecasting history lengths, prediction lengths and temporal granularities.

Recent work has shown that models trained to the same objective, and which achieve similar measures of accuracy on consistent test data, may nonetheless behave very differently on individual predictions. This inconsistency is undesirable in high-stakes contexts, such as medical diagnosis and finance. We show that this inconsistent behavior extends beyond predictions to feature attributions, which may likewise have negative implications for the intelligibility of a model, and one's ability to find recourse for subjects. We then introduce selective ensembles to mitigate such inconsistencies by applying hypothesis testing to the predictions of a set of models trained using randomly-selected starting conditions; importantly, selective ensembles can abstain in cases where a consistent outcome cannot be achieved up to a specified confidence level. We prove that that prediction disagreement between selective ensembles is bounded, and empirically demonstrate that selective ensembles achieve consistent predictions and feature attributions while maintaining low abstention rates. On several benchmark datasets, selective ensembles reach zero inconsistently predicted points, with abstention rates as low 1.5%.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Complex prediction models such as deep learning are the output from fitting machine learning, neural networks, or AI models to a set of training data. These are now standard tools in science. A key challenge with the current generation of models is that they are highly parameterized, which makes describing and interpreting the prediction strategies difficult. We use topological data analysis to transform these complex prediction models into pictures representing a topological view. The result is a map of the predictions that enables inspection. The methods scale up to large datasets across different domains and enable us to detect labeling errors in training data, understand generalization in image classification, and inspect predictions of likely pathogenic mutations in the BRCA1 gene.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Coherence is one of the critical factors that determine the quality of writing. We propose writing relevance (WR) training method for neural encoder-decoder natural language generation (NLG) models which improves coherence of the continuation by leveraging negative examples. WR loss regresses the vector representation of the context and generated sentence toward positive continuation by contrasting it with the negatives. We compare our approach with Unlikelihood (UL) training in a text continuation task on commonsense natural language inference (NLI) corpora to show which method better models the coherence by avoiding unlikely continuations. The preference of our approach in human evaluation shows the efficacy of our method in improving coherence.

We used a dataset of daily Bloomberg Financial Market Summaries from 2010 to 2023, reposted on large financial media, to determine how global news headlines may affect stock market movements using ChatGPT and a two-stage prompt approach. We document a statistically significant positive correlation between the sentiment score and future equity market returns over short to medium term, which reverts to a negative correlation over longer horizons. Validation of this correlation pattern across multiple equity markets indicates its robustness across equity regions and resilience to non-linearity, evidenced by comparison of Pearson and Spearman correlations. Finally, we provide an estimate of the optimal horizon that strikes a balance between reactivity to new information and correlation.

When faced with novel situations, people are able to marshal relevant considerations from a wide range of background knowledge and put these to use in inferences and predictions. What permits us to draw in globally relevant information and reason over it coherently? Here, we explore the hypothesis that people use a combination of distributed and symbolic representations to construct bespoke mental models tailored to novel situations. We propose a computational implementation of this idea -- a ``Model Synthesis Architecture'' (MSA) -- using language models to implement global relevance-based retrieval and model synthesis and probabilistic programs to implement bespoke, coherent world models. We evaluate our MSA as a model of human judgments on a novel reasoning dataset. The dataset -- built around a `Model Olympics` domain of sports vignettes -- tests models' capacity for human-like, open-ended reasoning by requiring (i) judgments about novel causal structures described in language; (ii) drawing on large bodies of background knowledge; and (iii) doing both in light of observations that introduce arbitrary novel variables. Our MSA approach captures human judgments better than language model-only baselines, under both direct and chain-of-thought generations from the LM that supports model synthesis. These results suggest that MSAs can be implemented in a way that mirrors people's ability to deliver locally coherent reasoning over globally relevant variables, offering a path to understanding and replicating human reasoning in open-ended domains.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

If machine learning models were to achieve superhuman abilities at various reasoning or decision-making tasks, how would we go about evaluating such models, given that humans would necessarily be poor proxies for ground truth? In this paper, we propose a framework for evaluating superhuman models via consistency checks. Our premise is that while the correctness of superhuman decisions may be impossible to evaluate, we can still surface mistakes if the model's decisions fail to satisfy certain logical, human-interpretable rules. We instantiate our framework on three tasks where correctness of decisions is hard to evaluate due to either superhuman model abilities, or to otherwise missing ground truth: evaluating chess positions, forecasting future events, and making legal judgments. We show that regardless of a model's (possibly superhuman) performance on these tasks, we can discover logical inconsistencies in decision making. For example: a chess engine assigning opposing valuations to semantically identical boards; GPT-4 forecasting that sports records will evolve non-monotonically over time; or an AI judge assigning bail to a defendant only after we add a felony to their criminal record.

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time evolving random forest classifier which leverages some unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications.

A fundamental open challenge in modern LLM scaling is the lack of understanding around emergent capabilities. In particular, language model pretraining loss is known to be highly predictable as a function of compute. However, downstream capabilities are far less predictable -- sometimes even exhibiting emergent jumps -- which makes it challenging to anticipate the capabilities of future models. In this work, we first pose the task of emergence prediction: given access to current LLMs that have random few-shot accuracy on a task, can we predict whether future models (GPT-N+1) will have non-trivial accuracy on that task? We then discover a simple insight for this problem: finetuning LLMs on a given task can shift the point in scaling at which emergence occurs towards less capable models. To operationalize this insight, we can finetune LLMs with varying amounts of data and fit a parametric function that predicts when emergence will occur (i.e., "emergence laws"). We validate this approach using four standard NLP benchmarks where large-scale open-source LLMs already demonstrate emergence (MMLU, GSM8K, CommonsenseQA, and CoLA). Using only small-scale LLMs, we find that, in some cases, we can accurately predict whether models trained with up to 4x more compute have emerged. Finally, we present a case study of two realistic uses for emergence prediction.

Machine-based prediction of real-world events is garnering attention due to its potential for informed decision-making. Whereas traditional forecasting predominantly hinges on structured data like time-series, recent breakthroughs in language models enable predictions using unstructured text. In particular, (Zou et al., 2022) unveils AutoCast, a new benchmark that employs news articles for answering forecasting queries. Nevertheless, existing methods still trail behind human performance. The cornerstone of accurate forecasting, we argue, lies in identifying a concise, yet rich subset of news snippets from a vast corpus. With this motivation, we introduce AutoCast++, a zero-shot ranking-based context retrieval system, tailored to sift through expansive news document collections for event forecasting. Our approach first re-ranks articles based on zero-shot question-passage relevance, honing in on semantically pertinent news. Following this, the chosen articles are subjected to zero-shot summarization to attain succinct context. Leveraging a pre-trained language model, we conduct both the relevance evaluation and article summarization without needing domain-specific training. Notably, recent articles can sometimes be at odds with preceding ones due to new facts or unanticipated incidents, leading to fluctuating temporal dynamics. To tackle this, our re-ranking mechanism gives preference to more recent articles, and we further regularize the multi-passage representation learning to align with human forecaster responses made on different dates. Empirical results underscore marked improvements across multiple metrics, improving the performance for multiple-choice questions (MCQ) by 48% and true/false (TF) questions by up to 8%.

Networks provide a powerful formalism for modeling complex systems by using a model of pairwise interactions. But much of the structure within these systems involves interactions that take place among more than two nodes at once; for example, communication within a group rather than person-to person, collaboration among a team rather than a pair of coauthors, or biological interaction between a set of molecules rather than just two. Such higher-order interactions are ubiquitous, but their empirical study has received limited attention, and little is known about possible organizational principles of such structures. Here we study the temporal evolution of 19 datasets with explicit accounting for higher-order interactions. We show that there is a rich variety of structure in our datasets but datasets from the same system types have consistent patterns of higher-order structure. Furthermore, we find that tie strength and edge density are competing positive indicators of higher-order organization, and these trends are consistent across interactions involving differing numbers of nodes. To systematically further the study of theories for such higher-order structures, we propose higher-order link prediction as a benchmark problem to assess models and algorithms that predict higher-order structure. We find a fundamental differences from traditional pairwise link prediction, with a greater role for local rather than long-range information in predicting the appearance of new interactions.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

Within this decade, quantum computers are predicted to outperform conventional computers in terms of processing power and have a disruptive effect on a variety of business sectors. It is predicted that the financial sector would be one of the first to benefit from quantum computing both in the short and long terms. In this research work we use Hybrid Quantum Neural networks to present a quantum machine learning approach for Continuous variable prediction.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

Accurate prediction of climate in the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale is crucial for disaster readiness, reduced economic risk, and improved policy-making amidst climate change. Yet, S2S prediction remains challenging due to the chaotic nature of the system. At present, existing benchmarks for weather and climate applications, tend to (1) have shorter forecasting range of up-to 14 days, (2) do not include a wide range of operational baseline forecasts, and (3) lack physics-based constraints for explainability. Thus, we propose ChaosBench, a large-scale, multi-channel, physics-based benchmark for S2S prediction. ChaosBench has over 460K frames of real-world observations and simulations, each with 60 variable-channels and spanning for up-to 45 years. We also propose several physics-based, in addition to vision-based metrics, that enables for a more physically-consistent model. Furthermore, we include a diverse set of physics-based forecasts from 4 national weather agencies as baselines to our data-driven counterpart. We establish two tasks that vary in complexity: full and sparse dynamics prediction. Our benchmark is one of the first to perform large-scale evaluation on existing models including PanguWeather, FourCastNetV2, GraphCast, and ClimaX, and finds methods originally developed for weather-scale applications fails on S2S task. We release our benchmark code and datasets at https://leap-stc.github.io/ChaosBench.

The 100 MW cryogenic liquid oxygen/hydrogen multi-injector combustor BKD operated by the DLR Institute of Space Propulsion is a research platform that allows the study of thermoacoustic instabilities under realistic conditions, representative of small upper stage rocket engines. We use data from BKD experimental campaigns in which the static chamber pressure and fuel-oxidizer ratio are varied such that the first tangential mode of the combustor is excited under some conditions. We train an autoregressive Bayesian neural network model to forecast the amplitude of the dynamic pressure time series, inputting multiple sensor measurements (injector pressure/ temperature measurements, static chamber pressure, high-frequency dynamic pressure measurements, high-frequency OH* chemiluminescence measurements) and future flow rate control signals. The Bayesian nature of our algorithms allows us to work with a dataset whose size is restricted by the expense of each experimental run, without making overconfident extrapolations. We find that the networks are able to accurately forecast the evolution of the pressure amplitude and anticipate instability events on unseen experimental runs 500 milliseconds in advance. We compare the predictive accuracy of multiple models using different combinations of sensor inputs. We find that the high-frequency dynamic pressure signal is particularly informative. We also use the technique of integrated gradients to interpret the influence of different sensor inputs on the model prediction. The negative log-likelihood of data points in the test dataset indicates that predictive uncertainties are well-characterized by our Bayesian model and simulating a sensor failure event results as expected in a dramatic increase in the epistemic component of the uncertainty.

Modeling semantic plausibility requires commonsense knowledge about the world and has been used as a testbed for exploring various knowledge representations. Previous work has focused specifically on modeling physical plausibility and shown that distributional methods fail when tested in a supervised setting. At the same time, distributional models, namely large pretrained language models, have led to improved results for many natural language understanding tasks. In this work, we show that these pretrained language models are in fact effective at modeling physical plausibility in the supervised setting. We therefore present the more difficult problem of learning to model physical plausibility directly from text. We create a training set by extracting attested events from a large corpus, and we provide a baseline for training on these attested events in a self-supervised manner and testing on a physical plausibility task. We believe results could be further improved by injecting explicit commonsense knowledge into a distributional model.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown great potential in perception and interpretation tasks, but their capabilities in predictive reasoning remain under-explored. To address this gap, we introduce a novel benchmark that assesses the predictive reasoning capabilities of MLLMs across diverse scenarios. Our benchmark targets three important domains: abstract pattern reasoning, human activity prediction, and physical interaction prediction. We further develop three evaluation methods powered by large language model to robustly quantify a model's performance in predicting and reasoning the future based on multi-visual context. Empirical experiments confirm the soundness of the proposed benchmark and evaluation methods via rigorous testing and reveal pros and cons of current popular MLLMs in the task of predictive reasoning. Lastly, our proposed benchmark provides a standardized evaluation framework for MLLMs and can facilitate the development of more advanced models that can reason and predict over complex long sequence of multimodal input.

We propose PROSE-FD, a zero-shot multimodal PDE foundational model for simultaneous prediction of heterogeneous two-dimensional physical systems related to distinct fluid dynamics settings. These systems include shallow water equations and the Navier-Stokes equations with incompressible and compressible flow, regular and complex geometries, and different buoyancy settings. This work presents a new transformer-based multi-operator learning approach that fuses symbolic information to perform operator-based data prediction, i.e. non-autoregressive. By incorporating multiple modalities in the inputs, the PDE foundation model builds in a pathway for including mathematical descriptions of the physical behavior. We pre-train our foundation model on 6 parametric families of equations collected from 13 datasets, including over 60K trajectories. Our model outperforms popular operator learning, computer vision, and multi-physics models, in benchmark forward prediction tasks. We test our architecture choices with ablation studies.

We introduce TimeMCL, a method leveraging the Multiple Choice Learning (MCL) paradigm to forecast multiple plausible time series futures. Our approach employs a neural network with multiple heads and utilizes the Winner-Takes-All (WTA) loss to promote diversity among predictions. MCL has recently gained attention due to its simplicity and ability to address ill-posed and ambiguous tasks. We propose an adaptation of this framework for time-series forecasting, presenting it as an efficient method to predict diverse futures, which we relate to its implicit quantization objective. We provide insights into our approach using synthetic data and evaluate it on real-world time series, demonstrating its promising performance at a light computational cost.

Encouraged by decision makers' appetite for future information on topics ranging from elections to pandemics, and enabled by the explosion of data and computational methods, model based forecasts have garnered increasing influence on a breadth of decisions in modern society. Using several classic examples from fisheries management, I demonstrate that selecting the model or models that produce the most accurate and precise forecast (measured by statistical scores) can sometimes lead to worse outcomes (measured by real-world objectives). This can create a forecast trap, in which the outcomes such as fish biomass or economic yield decline while the manager becomes increasingly convinced that these actions are consistent with the best models and data available. The forecast trap is not unique to this example, but a fundamental consequence of non-uniqueness of models. Existing practices promoting a broader set of models are the best way to avoid the trap.

Despite improvements in performances on different natural language generation tasks, deep neural models are prone to hallucinating facts that are incorrect or nonexistent. Different hypotheses are proposed and examined separately for different tasks, but no systematic explanations are available across these tasks. In this study, we draw connections between hallucinations and predictive uncertainty in conditional language generation. We investigate their relationship in both image captioning and data-to-text generation and propose a simple extension to beam search to reduce hallucination. Our analysis shows that higher predictive uncertainty corresponds to a higher chance of hallucination. Epistemic uncertainty is more indicative of hallucination than aleatoric or total uncertainties. It helps to achieve better results of trading performance in standard metric for less hallucination with the proposed beam search variant.

Chaos and unpredictability are traditionally synonymous, yet large-scale machine learning methods recently have demonstrated a surprising ability to forecast chaotic systems well beyond typical predictability horizons. However, recent works disagree on whether specialized methods grounded in dynamical systems theory, such as reservoir computers or neural ordinary differential equations, outperform general-purpose large-scale learning methods such as transformers or recurrent neural networks. These prior studies perform comparisons on few individually-chosen chaotic systems, thereby precluding robust quantification of how statistical modeling choices and dynamical invariants of different chaotic systems jointly determine empirical predictability. Here, we perform the largest to-date comparative study of forecasting methods on the classical problem of forecasting chaos: we benchmark 24 state-of-the-art forecasting methods on a crowdsourced database of 135 low-dimensional systems with 17 forecast metrics. We find that large-scale, domain-agnostic forecasting methods consistently produce predictions that remain accurate up to two dozen Lyapunov times, thereby accessing a new long-horizon forecasting regime well beyond classical methods. We find that, in this regime, accuracy decorrelates with classical invariant measures of predictability like the Lyapunov exponent. However, in data-limited settings outside the long-horizon regime, we find that physics-based hybrid methods retain a comparative advantage due to their strong inductive biases.

Predicting case outcomes is useful but still an extremely hard task for attorneys and other Law professionals. It is not easy to search case information to extract valuable information as this requires dealing with huge data sets and their complexity. For instance, the complexity of Brazil legal system along with the high litigation rates makes this problem even harder. This paper introduces an approach for predicting Brazilian court decisions which is also able to predict whether the decision will be unanimous. We developed a working prototype which performs 79% of accuracy (F1-score) on a data set composed of 4,043 cases from a Brazilian court. To our knowledge, this is the first study to forecast judge decisions in Brazil.

We present a novel Transformer-based multi-agent system for simulating the judicial rulings of the 2010-2016 Supreme Court of the United States. We train nine separate models with the respective authored opinions of each supreme justice active ca. 2015 and test the resulting system on 96 real-world cases. We find our system predicts the decisions of the real-world Supreme Court with better-than-random accuracy. We further find a correlation between model accuracy with respect to individual justices and their alignment between legal conservatism & liberalism. Our methods and results hold significance for researchers interested in using language models to simulate politically-charged discourse between multiple agents.

Multivariable time series forecasting methods can integrate information from exogenous variables, leading to significant prediction accuracy gains. Transformer architecture has been widely applied in various time series forecasting models due to its ability to capture long-range sequential dependencies. However, a na\"ive application of transformers often struggles to effectively model complex relationships among variables over time. To mitigate against this, we propose a novel architecture, namely the Spectral Operator Neural Network (Sonnet). Sonnet applies learnable wavelet transformations to the input and incorporates spectral analysis using the Koopman operator. Its predictive skill relies on the Multivariable Coherence Attention (MVCA), an operation that leverages spectral coherence to model variable dependencies. Our empirical analysis shows that Sonnet yields the best performance on 34 out of 47 forecasting tasks with an average mean absolute error (MAE) reduction of 1.1% against the most competitive baseline (different per task). We further show that MVCA -- when put in place of the na\"ive attention used in various deep learning models -- can remedy its deficiencies, reducing MAE by 10.7% on average in the most challenging forecasting tasks.

Predicting the trajectories of road agents is essential for autonomous driving systems. The recent mainstream methods follow a static paradigm, which predicts the future trajectory by using a fixed duration of historical frames. These methods make the predictions independently even at adjacent time steps, which leads to potential instability and temporal inconsistency. As successive time steps have largely overlapping historical frames, their forecasting should have intrinsic correlation, such as overlapping predicted trajectories should be consistent, or be different but share the same motion goal depending on the road situation. Motivated by this, in this work, we introduce HPNet, a novel dynamic trajectory forecasting method. Aiming for stable and accurate trajectory forecasting, our method leverages not only historical frames including maps and agent states, but also historical predictions. Specifically, we newly design a Historical Prediction Attention module to automatically encode the dynamic relationship between successive predictions. Besides, it also extends the attention range beyond the currently visible window benefitting from the use of historical predictions. The proposed Historical Prediction Attention together with the Agent Attention and Mode Attention is further formulated as the Triple Factorized Attention module, serving as the core design of HPNet.Experiments on the Argoverse and INTERACTION datasets show that HPNet achieves state-of-the-art performance, and generates accurate and stable future trajectories. Our code are available at https://github.com/XiaolongTang23/HPNet.

Despite significant advancements, current large language models (LLMs) and vision-language models (LVLMs) continue to struggle with complex, multi-step, cross-modal common sense reasoning tasks, often exhibiting a lack of "deliberative thinking." They tend to rely on superficial associations rather than deep, chained inference, particularly when integrating visual information with abstract concepts. To address this, we propose the Coherent Multimodal Reasoning Framework (CMRF), a novel approach that enhances LVLMs' common sense reasoning capabilities through an iterative, self-evaluating inference mechanism. CMRF mimics human problem-solving by decomposing complex queries, generating step-by-step inferences, and self-correcting errors. Our framework integrates three key modules: a Reasoning Decomposition Unit (RDU) for breaking down problems into sub-questions, a Contextual Inference Engine (CIE) for contextual inference, and a Coherence Assessment Module (CAM) for evaluating logical consistency and confidence. Coupled with an Adaptive Iterative Refinement strategy, CMRF systematically refines its reasoning paths. Built upon LLaVA-1.6-34B and trained on a novel Multimodal Daily Activity Reasoning (MDAR) dataset, CMRF achieves state-of-the-art performance among open-source LVLMs on challenging benchmarks like VCR, A-OKVQA, and DailyLife-MRC. It attains an average accuracy of 69.4%, surpassing the best open-source baseline by +2.4 percentage points, with particular strength in complex reasoning scenarios. Extensive ablation studies and human evaluations confirm the critical contributions of each module and the effectiveness of iterative refinement in fostering more coherent and accurate reasoning.

Scientific discoveries often hinge on synthesizing decades of research, a task that potentially outstrips human information processing capacities. Large language models (LLMs) offer a solution. LLMs trained on the vast scientific literature could potentially integrate noisy yet interrelated findings to forecast novel results better than human experts. To evaluate this possibility, we created BrainBench, a forward-looking benchmark for predicting neuroscience results. We find that LLMs surpass experts in predicting experimental outcomes. BrainGPT, an LLM we tuned on the neuroscience literature, performed better yet. Like human experts, when LLMs were confident in their predictions, they were more likely to be correct, which presages a future where humans and LLMs team together to make discoveries. Our approach is not neuroscience-specific and is transferable to other knowledge-intensive endeavors.

Automated plot generation is the challenge of generating a sequence of events that will be perceived by readers as the plot of a coherent story. Traditional symbolic planners plan a story from a goal state and guarantee logical causal plot coherence but rely on a library of hand-crafted actions with their preconditions and effects. This closed world setting limits the length and diversity of what symbolic planners can generate. On the other hand, pre-trained neural language models can generate stories with great diversity, while being generally incapable of ending a story in a specified manner and can have trouble maintaining coherence. In this paper, we present an approach to story plot generation that unifies causal planning with neural language models. We propose to use commonsense knowledge extracted from large language models to recursively expand a story plot in a backward chaining fashion. Specifically, our system infers the preconditions for events in the story and then events that will cause those conditions to become true. We performed automatic evaluation to measure narrative coherence as indicated by the ability to answer questions about whether different events in the story are causally related to other events. Results indicate that our proposed method produces more coherent plotlines than several strong baselines.

Data replay is a successful incremental learning technique for images. It prevents catastrophic forgetting by keeping a reservoir of previous data, original or synthesized, to ensure the model retains past knowledge while adapting to novel concepts. However, its application in the video domain is rudimentary, as it simply stores frame exemplars for action recognition. This paper presents the first exploration of video data replay techniques for incremental action segmentation, focusing on action temporal modeling. We propose a Temporally Coherent Action (TCA) model, which represents actions using a generative model instead of storing individual frames. The integration of a conditioning variable that captures temporal coherence allows our model to understand the evolution of action features over time. Therefore, action segments generated by TCA for replay are diverse and temporally coherent. In a 10-task incremental setup on the Breakfast dataset, our approach achieves significant increases in accuracy for up to 22% compared to the baselines.

In an experiment on a turbulent jet, we detect interfacial turbulent layers in a frame that moves, on average, along with the \tnti. This significantly prolongs the observation time of scalar and velocity structures and enables the measurement of two types of Lagrangian coherent structures. One structure, the finite-time Lyapunov field (FTLE), quantifies advective transport barriers of fluid parcels while the other structure highlights barriers of diffusive momentum transport. These two complementary structures depend on large-scale and small-scale motion and are therefore associated with the growth of the turbulent region through engulfment or nibbling, respectively. We detect the \tnti\ from cluster analysis, where we divide the measured scalar field into four clusters. Not only the \tnti\ can be found this way, but also the next, internal, turbulent-turbulent interface. Conditional averages show that these interfaces are correlated with barriers of advective and diffusive transport when the Lagrangian integration time is smaller than the integral time scale. Diffusive structures decorrelate faster since they have a smaller timescale. Conditional averages of these structures at internal turbulent-turbulent interfaces show the same pattern with a more pronounced jump at the interface indicative of a shear layer. This is quite an unexpected outcome, as the internal interface is now defined not by the presence or absence of vorticity, but by conditional vorticity corresponding to two uniform concentration zones. The long-time diffusive momentum flux along Lagrangian paths represents the growth of the turbulent flow into the irrotational domain, a direct demonstration of nibbling. The diffusive flux parallel to the \tnti\ appears to be concentrated in a diffusive superlayer whose width is comparable with the Taylor microscale, which is relatively invariant in time.

With the advancements in denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs), image inpainting has significantly evolved from merely filling information based on nearby regions to generating content conditioned on various prompts such as text, exemplar images, and sketches. However, existing methods, such as model fine-tuning and simple concatenation of latent vectors, often result in generation failures due to overfitting and inconsistency between the inpainted region and the background. In this paper, we argue that the current large diffusion models are sufficiently powerful to generate realistic images without further tuning. Hence, we introduce PILOT (inPainting vIa Latent OpTimization), an optimization approach grounded on a novel semantic centralization and background preservation loss. Our method searches latent spaces capable of generating inpainted regions that exhibit high fidelity to user-provided prompts while maintaining coherence with the background. Furthermore, we propose a strategy to balance optimization expense and image quality, significantly enhancing generation efficiency. Our method seamlessly integrates with any pre-trained model, including ControlNet and DreamBooth, making it suitable for deployment in multi-modal editing tools. Our qualitative and quantitative evaluations demonstrate that PILOT outperforms existing approaches by generating more coherent, diverse, and faithful inpainted regions in response to provided prompts.

We demonstrate a coherent spin shuttle through a GaAs/AlGaAs quadruple-quantum-dot array. Starting with two electrons in a spin-singlet state in the first dot, we shuttle one electron over to either the second, third or fourth dot. We observe that the separated spin-singlet evolves periodically into the m=0 spin-triplet and back before it dephases due to nuclear spin noise. We attribute the time evolution to differences in the local Zeeman splitting between the respective dots. With the help of numerical simulations, we analyse and discuss the visibility of the singlet-triplet oscillations and connect it to the requirements for coherent spin shuttling in terms of the inter-dot tunnel coupling strength and rise time of the pulses. The distribution of entangled spin pairs through tunnel coupled structures may be of great utility for connecting distant qubit registers on a chip.

Despite the recent proliferation of large language models (LLMs), their training recipes -- model architecture, pre-training data and optimization algorithm -- are often very similar. This naturally raises the question of the similarity among the resulting models. In this paper, we propose a novel setting, imaginary question answering (IQA), to better understand model similarity. In IQA, we ask one model to generate purely imaginary questions (e.g., on completely made-up concepts in physics) and prompt another model to answer. Surprisingly, despite the total fictionality of these questions, all models can answer each other's questions with remarkable success, suggesting a "shared imagination space" in which these models operate during such hallucinations. We conduct a series of investigations into this phenomenon and discuss implications on model homogeneity, hallucination, and computational creativity.

Temperature sampling is a conventional approach to diversify large language model predictions. As temperature increases, the prediction becomes diverse but also vulnerable to hallucinations -- generating tokens that are sensible but not factual. One common approach to mitigate hallucinations is to provide source/grounding documents and the model is trained to produce predictions that bind to and are attributable to the provided source. It appears that there is a trade-off between diversity and attribution. To mitigate any such trade-off, we propose to relax the constraint of having a fixed temperature over decoding steps, and a mechanism to guide the dynamic temperature according to its relevance to the source through KL-divergence. Our experiments justifies the trade-off, and shows that our sampling algorithm outperforms the conventional top-k and top-p algorithms in conversational question-answering and summarization tasks.

Planning safe robot motions in the presence of humans requires reliable forecasts of future human motion. However, simply predicting the most likely motion from prior interactions does not guarantee safety. Such forecasts fail to model the long tail of possible events, which are rarely observed in limited datasets. On the other hand, planning for worst-case motions leads to overtly conservative behavior and a "frozen robot". Instead, we aim to learn forecasts that predict counterfactuals that humans guard against. We propose a novel game-theoretic framework for joint planning and forecasting with the payoff being the performance of the planner against the demonstrator, and present practical algorithms to train models in an end-to-end fashion. We demonstrate that our proposed algorithm results in safer plans in a crowd navigation simulator and real-world datasets of pedestrian motion. We release our code at https://github.com/portal-cornell/Game-Theoretic-Forecasting-Planning.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

Machine learning models in modern mass-market applications are often updated over time. One of the foremost challenges faced is that, despite increasing overall performance, these updates may flip specific model predictions in unpredictable ways. In practice, researchers quantify the number of unstable predictions between models pre and post update -- i.e., predictive churn. In this paper, we study this effect through the lens of predictive multiplicity -- i.e., the prevalence of conflicting predictions over the set of near-optimal models (the Rashomon set). We show how traditional measures of predictive multiplicity can be used to examine expected churn over this set of prospective models -- i.e., the set of models that may be used to replace a baseline model in deployment. We present theoretical results on the expected churn between models within the Rashomon set from different perspectives. And we characterize expected churn over model updates via the Rashomon set, pairing our analysis with empirical results on real-world datasets -- showing how our approach can be used to better anticipate, reduce, and avoid churn in consumer-facing applications. Further, we show that our approach is useful even for models enhanced with uncertainty awareness.

We present the Legal Passage Retrieval Dataset LePaRD. LePaRD is a massive collection of U.S. federal judicial citations to precedent in context. The dataset aims to facilitate work on legal passage prediction, a challenging practice-oriented legal retrieval and reasoning task. Legal passage prediction seeks to predict relevant passages from precedential court decisions given the context of a legal argument. We extensively evaluate various retrieval approaches on LePaRD, and find that classification appears to work best. However, we note that legal precedent prediction is a difficult task, and there remains significant room for improvement. We hope that by publishing LePaRD, we will encourage others to engage with a legal NLP task that promises to help expand access to justice by reducing the burden associated with legal research. A subset of the LePaRD dataset is freely available and the whole dataset will be released upon publication.

In October 2007, a Research Proposal for the University of Sydney, Australia, the author suggested that biovie-physical phenomenon as `electrodynamic dependant biological vision', is governed by relativistic quantum laws and biovision. The phenomenon on the basis of `biovielectroluminescence', satisfies man/microbio/megabio/computer vision (MMMCV), as a robust candidate for physical and visual sciences. The general aim of this addendum is to present a refined text of Sections 1-3 of that proposal and highlighting the contents of its Appendix in form of a `Mechanisms' Section. We then briefly remind in an article aimed for December 2007, by appending two more equations into Section 3, a theoretical II-time scenario as a time model well-proposed for the phenomenon. The time model within the core of the proposal, plays a significant role in emphasizing the principle points on Objectives no. 1-8, Sub-hypothesis 3.1.2, mentioned in Article [arXiv:0710.0410]. It also expresses the time concept in terms of causing quantized energy f(|E|) of time |t|, emit in regard to shortening the probability of particle loci as predictable patterns of particle's un-occurred motion, a solution to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle (HUP) into a simplistic manner. We conclude that, practical frames via a time algorithm to this model, fixates such predictable patterns of motion of scenery bodies onto recordable observation points of a MMMCV system. It even suppresses/predicts superposition phenomena coming from a human subject and/or other bio-subjects for any decision making event, e.g., brainwave quantum patterns based on vision. Maintaining the existential probability of Riemann surfaces of II-time scenarios in the context of biovielectroluminescence, makes motion-prediction a possibility.

The widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) makes it important to recognize their strengths and limitations. We argue that in order to develop a holistic understanding of these systems we need to consider the problem that they were trained to solve: next-word prediction over Internet text. By recognizing the pressures that this task exerts we can make predictions about the strategies that LLMs will adopt, allowing us to reason about when they will succeed or fail. This approach - which we call the teleological approach - leads us to identify three factors that we hypothesize will influence LLM accuracy: the probability of the task to be performed, the probability of the target output, and the probability of the provided input. We predict that LLMs will achieve higher accuracy when these probabilities are high than when they are low - even in deterministic settings where probability should not matter. To test our predictions, we evaluate two LLMs (GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) on eleven tasks, and we find robust evidence that LLMs are influenced by probability in the ways that we have hypothesized. In many cases, the experiments reveal surprising failure modes. For instance, GPT-4's accuracy at decoding a simple cipher is 51% when the output is a high-probability word sequence but only 13% when it is low-probability. These results show that AI practitioners should be careful about using LLMs in low-probability situations. More broadly, we conclude that we should not evaluate LLMs as if they are humans but should instead treat them as a distinct type of system - one that has been shaped by its own particular set of pressures.

Forecasts of future events are essential inputs into informed decision-making. Machine learning (ML) systems have the potential to deliver forecasts at scale, but there is no framework for evaluating the accuracy of ML systems on a standardized set of forecasting questions. To address this gap, we introduce ForecastBench: a dynamic benchmark that evaluates the accuracy of ML systems on an automatically generated and regularly updated set of 1,000 forecasting questions. To avoid any possibility of data leakage, ForecastBench is comprised solely of questions about future events that have no known answer at the time of submission. We quantify the capabilities of current ML systems by collecting forecasts from expert (human) forecasters, the general public, and LLMs on a random subset of questions from the benchmark (N=200). While LLMs have achieved super-human performance on many benchmarks, they perform less well here: expert forecasters outperform the top-performing LLM (p-value <0.001). We display system and human scores in a public leaderboard at www.forecastbench.org.

Designing robust frameworks for precise prediction of future prices of stocks has always been considered a very challenging research problem. The advocates of the classical efficient market hypothesis affirm that it is impossible to accurately predict the future prices in an efficiently operating market due to the stochastic nature of the stock price variables. However, numerous propositions exist in the literature with varying degrees of sophistication and complexity that illustrate how algorithms and models can be designed for making efficient, accurate, and robust predictions of stock prices. We present a gamut of ten deep learning models of regression for precise and robust prediction of the future prices of the stock of a critical company in the auto sector of India. Using a very granular stock price collected at 5 minutes intervals, we train the models based on the records from 31st Dec, 2012 to 27th Dec, 2013. The testing of the models is done using records from 30th Dec, 2013 to 9th Jan 2015. We explain the design principles of the models and analyze the results of their performance based on accuracy in forecasting and speed of execution.

Video generation has witnessed remarkable progress with the advent of deep generative models, particularly diffusion models. While existing methods excel in generating high-quality videos from text prompts or single images, personalized multi-subject video generation remains a largely unexplored challenge. This task involves synthesizing videos that incorporate multiple distinct subjects, each defined by separate reference images, while ensuring temporal and spatial consistency. Current approaches primarily rely on mapping subject images to keywords in text prompts, which introduces ambiguity and limits their ability to model subject relationships effectively. In this paper, we propose CINEMA, a novel framework for coherent multi-subject video generation by leveraging Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM). Our approach eliminates the need for explicit correspondences between subject images and text entities, mitigating ambiguity and reducing annotation effort. By leveraging MLLM to interpret subject relationships, our method facilitates scalability, enabling the use of large and diverse datasets for training. Furthermore, our framework can be conditioned on varying numbers of subjects, offering greater flexibility in personalized content creation. Through extensive evaluations, we demonstrate that our approach significantly improves subject consistency, and overall video coherence, paving the way for advanced applications in storytelling, interactive media, and personalized video generation.

The remarkable capabilities of pretrained image diffusion models have been utilized not only for generating fixed-size images but also for creating panoramas. However, naive stitching of multiple images often results in visible seams. Recent techniques have attempted to address this issue by performing joint diffusions in multiple windows and averaging latent features in overlapping regions. However, these approaches, which focus on seamless montage generation, often yield incoherent outputs by blending different scenes within a single image. To overcome this limitation, we propose SyncDiffusion, a plug-and-play module that synchronizes multiple diffusions through gradient descent from a perceptual similarity loss. Specifically, we compute the gradient of the perceptual loss using the predicted denoised images at each denoising step, providing meaningful guidance for achieving coherent montages. Our experimental results demonstrate that our method produces significantly more coherent outputs compared to previous methods (66.35% vs. 33.65% in our user study) while still maintaining fidelity (as assessed by GIQA) and compatibility with the input prompt (as measured by CLIP score).

Generating music with coherent structure, harmonious instrumental and vocal elements remains a significant challenge in song generation. Existing language models and diffusion-based methods often struggle to balance global coherence with local fidelity, resulting in outputs that lack musicality or suffer from incoherent progression and mismatched lyrics. This paper introduces SongBloom, a novel framework for full-length song generation that leverages an interleaved paradigm of autoregressive sketching and diffusion-based refinement. SongBloom employs an autoregressive diffusion model that combines the high fidelity of diffusion models with the scalability of language models. Specifically, it gradually extends a musical sketch from short to long and refines the details from coarse to fine-grained. The interleaved generation paradigm effectively integrates prior semantic and acoustic context to guide the generation process. Experimental results demonstrate that SongBloom outperforms existing methods across both subjective and objective metrics and achieves performance comparable to the state-of-the-art commercial music generation platforms. Audio samples are available on our demo page: https://cypress-yang.github.io/SongBloom\_demo.

Multistep instructions, such as recipes and how-to guides, greatly benefit from visual aids, such as a series of images that accompany the instruction steps. While Large Language Models (LLMs) have become adept at generating coherent textual steps, Large Vision/Language Models (LVLMs) are less capable of generating accompanying image sequences. The most challenging aspect is that each generated image needs to adhere to the relevant textual step instruction, as well as be visually consistent with earlier images in the sequence. To address this problem, we propose an approach for generating consistent image sequences, which integrates a Latent Diffusion Model (LDM) with an LLM to transform the sequence into a caption to maintain the semantic coherence of the sequence. In addition, to maintain the visual coherence of the image sequence, we introduce a copy mechanism to initialise reverse diffusion processes with a latent vector iteration from a previously generated image from a relevant step. Both strategies will condition the reverse diffusion process on the sequence of instruction steps and tie the contents of the current image to previous instruction steps and corresponding images. Experiments show that the proposed approach is preferred by humans in 46.6% of the cases against 26.6% for the second best method. In addition, automatic metrics showed that the proposed method maintains semantic coherence and visual consistency across steps in both domains.

A human author can write any length of story without losing coherence. Also, they always bring the story to a proper ending, an ability that current language models lack. In this work, we present the LongStory for coherent, complete, and length-controlled long story generation. LongStory introduces two novel methodologies: (1) the long and short-term contexts weight calibrator (CWC) and (2) long story structural positions (LSP). The CWC adjusts weights for long-term context Memory and short-term context Cheating, acknowledging their distinct roles. The LSP employs discourse tokens to convey the structural positions of a long story. Trained on three datasets with varied average story lengths, LongStory outperforms other baselines, including the strong story generator Plotmachine, in coherence, completeness, relevance, and repetitiveness. We also perform zero-shot tests on each dataset to assess the model's ability to predict outcomes beyond its training data and validate our methodology by comparing its performance with variants of our model.

Here we investigate the role of quantum interference in the quantum homogenizer, whose convergence properties model a thermalization process. In the original quantum homogenizer protocol, a system qubit converges to the state of identical reservoir qubits through partial-swap interactions, that allow interference between reservoir qubits. We design an alternative, incoherent quantum homogenizer, where each system-reservoir interaction is moderated by a control qubit using a controlled-swap interaction. We show that our incoherent homogenizer satisfies the essential conditions for homogenization, being able to transform a qubit from any state to any other state to arbitrary accuracy, with negligible impact on the reservoir qubits' states. Our results show that the convergence properties of homogenization machines that are important for modelling thermalization are not dependent on coherence between qubits in the homogenization protocol. We then derive bounds on the resources required to re-use the homogenizers for performing state transformations. This demonstrates that both homogenizers are universal for any number of homogenizations, for an increased resource cost.

Image inpainting refers to the task of generating a complete, natural image based on a partially revealed reference image. Recently, many research interests have been focused on addressing this problem using fixed diffusion models. These approaches typically directly replace the revealed region of the intermediate or final generated images with that of the reference image or its variants. However, since the unrevealed regions are not directly modified to match the context, it results in incoherence between revealed and unrevealed regions. To address the incoherence problem, a small number of methods introduce a rigorous Bayesian framework, but they tend to introduce mismatches between the generated and the reference images due to the approximation errors in computing the posterior distributions. In this paper, we propose COPAINT, which can coherently inpaint the whole image without introducing mismatches. COPAINT also uses the Bayesian framework to jointly modify both revealed and unrevealed regions, but approximates the posterior distribution in a way that allows the errors to gradually drop to zero throughout the denoising steps, thus strongly penalizing any mismatches with the reference image. Our experiments verify that COPAINT can outperform the existing diffusion-based methods under both objective and subjective metrics. The codes are available at https://github.com/UCSB-NLP-Chang/CoPaint/.

Conditioned diffusion models have demonstrated state-of-the-art text-to-image synthesis capacity. Recently, most works focus on synthesizing independent images; While for real-world applications, it is common and necessary to generate a series of coherent images for story-stelling. In this work, we mainly focus on story visualization and continuation tasks and propose AR-LDM, a latent diffusion model auto-regressively conditioned on history captions and generated images. Moreover, AR-LDM can generalize to new characters through adaptation. To our best knowledge, this is the first work successfully leveraging diffusion models for coherent visual story synthesizing. Quantitative results show that AR-LDM achieves SoTA FID scores on PororoSV, FlintstonesSV, and the newly introduced challenging dataset VIST containing natural images. Large-scale human evaluations show that AR-LDM has superior performance in terms of quality, relevance, and consistency.

Advances in time-resolved Particle Tracking Velocimetry (4D-PTV) techniques have been consistently revealed more accurate Lagrangian particle motions. A novel track initialisation technique as a complementary part of 4D-PTV, based on local temporal and spatial coherency of neighbour trajectories, is proposed. The proposed Lagrangian Coherent Track Initialisation (LCTI) applies physics-based Finite Time Lyapunov Exponent (FTLE) to build four frame coherent tracks. We locally determine the boundaries (i.e., ridges) of Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCS) among neighbour trajectories by using FTLE to distinguish clusters of coherent motions. To evaluate the proposed technique, we created an open-access synthetic Lagrangian and Eulerian dataset of the wake downstream of a smooth cylinder at a Reynolds number equal to 3900 obtained from 3D Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS). The dataset is available to the public. Performance of the proposed method based on three characteristic parameters, temporal scale, particle concentration (i.e., density), and noise ratio, showed robust behaviour in finding true tracks compared to the recent initialisation algorithms. Sensitivity of LCTI to the number of untracked and wrong tracks are also discussed. We address the capability of using the proposed method as a function of a 4D-PTV scheme in the Lagrangian Particle Tracking challenge for a flow with high particle densities. Finally, the LCTI behaviour was assessed in a real jet impingement experiment. LCTI was found to be a reliable tracking tool in complex flow motions, with a strength revealed for flows with high particle concentrations.

Accurately forecasting patient arrivals at Urgent Care Clinics (UCCs) and Emergency Departments (EDs) is important for effective resourcing and patient care. However, correctly estimating patient flows is not straightforward since it depends on many drivers. The predictability of patient arrivals has recently been further complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic conditions and the resulting lockdowns. This study investigates how a suite of novel quasi-real-time variables like Google search terms, pedestrian traffic, the prevailing incidence levels of influenza, as well as the COVID-19 Alert Level indicators can both generally improve the forecasting models of patient flows and effectively adapt the models to the unfolding disruptions of pandemic conditions. This research also uniquely contributes to the body of work in this domain by employing tools from the eXplainable AI field to investigate more deeply the internal mechanics of the models than has previously been done. The Voting ensemble-based method combining machine learning and statistical techniques was the most reliable in our experiments. Our study showed that the prevailing COVID-19 Alert Level feature together with Google search terms and pedestrian traffic were effective at producing generalisable forecasts. The implications of this study are that proxy variables can effectively augment standard autoregressive features to ensure accurate forecasting of patient flows. The experiments showed that the proposed features are potentially effective model inputs for preserving forecast accuracies in the event of future pandemic outbreaks.

We introduce a benchmark to evaluate the capability of AI to solve problems in theoretical physics, focusing on high-energy theory and cosmology. The first iteration of our benchmark consists of 57 problems of varying difficulty, from undergraduate to research level. These problems are novel in the sense that they do not come from public problem collections. We evaluate our data set on various open and closed language models, including o3-mini, o1, DeepSeek-R1, GPT-4o and versions of Llama and Qwen. While we find impressive progress in model performance with the most recent models, our research-level difficulty problems are mostly unsolved. We address challenges of auto-verifiability and grading, and discuss common failure modes. While currently state-of-the art models are still of limited use for researchers, our results show that AI assisted theoretical physics research may become possible in the near future. We discuss the main obstacles towards this goal and possible strategies to overcome them. The public problems and solutions, results for various models, and updates to the data set and score distribution, are available on the website of the dataset tpbench.org.

We introduce a novel framework for incorporating human expertise into algorithmic predictions. Our approach leverages human judgment to distinguish inputs which are algorithmically indistinguishable, or "look the same" to predictive algorithms. We argue that this framing clarifies the problem of human-AI collaboration in prediction tasks, as experts often form judgments by drawing on information which is not encoded in an algorithm's training data. Algorithmic indistinguishability yields a natural test for assessing whether experts incorporate this kind of "side information", and further provides a simple but principled method for selectively incorporating human feedback into algorithmic predictions. We show that this method provably improves the performance of any feasible algorithmic predictor and precisely quantify this improvement. We find empirically that although algorithms often outperform their human counterparts on average, human judgment can improve algorithmic predictions on specific instances (which can be identified ex-ante). In an X-ray classification task, we find that this subset constitutes nearly 30% of the patient population. Our approach provides a natural way of uncovering this heterogeneity and thus enabling effective human-AI collaboration.

We study whether language models can evaluate the validity of their own claims and predict which questions they will be able to answer correctly. We first show that larger models are well-calibrated on diverse multiple choice and true/false questions when they are provided in the right format. Thus we can approach self-evaluation on open-ended sampling tasks by asking models to first propose answers, and then to evaluate the probability "P(True)" that their answers are correct. We find encouraging performance, calibration, and scaling for P(True) on a diverse array of tasks. Performance at self-evaluation further improves when we allow models to consider many of their own samples before predicting the validity of one specific possibility. Next, we investigate whether models can be trained to predict "P(IK)", the probability that "I know" the answer to a question, without reference to any particular proposed answer. Models perform well at predicting P(IK) and partially generalize across tasks, though they struggle with calibration of P(IK) on new tasks. The predicted P(IK) probabilities also increase appropriately in the presence of relevant source materials in the context, and in the presence of hints towards the solution of mathematical word problems. We hope these observations lay the groundwork for training more honest models, and for investigating how honesty generalizes to cases where models are trained on objectives other than the imitation of human writing.

Competitions play an invaluable role in the field of forecasting, as exemplified through the recent M4 competition. The competition received attention from both academics and practitioners and sparked discussions around the representativeness of the data for business forecasting. Several competitions featuring real-life business forecasting tasks on the Kaggle platform has, however, been largely ignored by the academic community. We believe the learnings from these competitions have much to offer to the forecasting community and provide a review of the results from six Kaggle competitions. We find that most of the Kaggle datasets are characterized by higher intermittence and entropy than the M-competitions and that global ensemble models tend to outperform local single models. Furthermore, we find the strong performance of gradient boosted decision trees, increasing success of neural networks for forecasting, and a variety of techniques for adapting machine learning models to the forecasting task.

Bayesian models of cognition have gained considerable traction in computational neuroscience and psychiatry. Their scopes are now expected to expand rapidly to artificial intelligence, providing general inference frameworks to support embodied, adaptable, and energy-efficient autonomous agents. A central theory in this domain is predictive coding, which posits that learning and behaviour are driven by hierarchical probabilistic inferences about the causes of sensory inputs. Biological realism constrains these networks to rely on simple local computations in the form of precision-weighted predictions and prediction errors. This can make this framework highly efficient, but its implementation comes with unique challenges on the software development side. Embedding such models in standard neural network libraries often becomes limiting, as these libraries' compilation and differentiation backends can force a conceptual separation between optimization algorithms and the systems being optimized. This critically departs from other biological principles such as self-monitoring, self-organisation, cellular growth and functional plasticity. In this paper, we introduce pyhgf: a Python package backed by JAX and Rust for creating, manipulating and sampling dynamic networks for predictive coding. We improve over other frameworks by enclosing the network components as transparent, modular and malleable variables in the message-passing steps. The resulting graphs can implement arbitrary computational complexities as beliefs propagation. But the transparency of core variables can also translate into inference processes that leverage self-organisation principles, and express structure learning, meta-learning or causal discovery as the consequence of network structural adaptation to surprising inputs. The code, tutorials and documentation are hosted at: https://github.com/ilabcode/pyhgf.

Recent advancements in video generation have primarily leveraged diffusion models for short-duration content. However, these approaches often fall short in modeling complex narratives and maintaining character consistency over extended periods, which is essential for long-form video production like movies. We propose MovieDreamer, a novel hierarchical framework that integrates the strengths of autoregressive models with diffusion-based rendering to pioneer long-duration video generation with intricate plot progressions and high visual fidelity. Our approach utilizes autoregressive models for global narrative coherence, predicting sequences of visual tokens that are subsequently transformed into high-quality video frames through diffusion rendering. This method is akin to traditional movie production processes, where complex stories are factorized down into manageable scene capturing. Further, we employ a multimodal script that enriches scene descriptions with detailed character information and visual style, enhancing continuity and character identity across scenes. We present extensive experiments across various movie genres, demonstrating that our approach not only achieves superior visual and narrative quality but also effectively extends the duration of generated content significantly beyond current capabilities. Homepage: https://aim-uofa.github.io/MovieDreamer/.

Existing research often treats long-form videos as extended short videos, leading to several limitations: inadequate capture of long-range dependencies, inefficient processing of redundant information, and failure to extract high-level semantic concepts. To address these issues, we propose a novel approach that more accurately reflects human cognition. This paper introduces HERMES: temporal-coHERent long-forM understanding with Episodes and Semantics, a model that simulates episodic memory accumulation to capture action sequences and reinforces them with semantic knowledge dispersed throughout the video. Our work makes two key contributions: First, we develop an Episodic COmpressor (ECO) that efficiently aggregates crucial representations from micro to semi-macro levels, overcoming the challenge of long-range dependencies. Second, we propose a Semantics ReTRiever (SeTR) that enhances these aggregated representations with semantic information by focusing on the broader context, dramatically reducing feature dimensionality while preserving relevant macro-level information. This addresses the issues of redundancy and lack of high-level concept extraction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that HERMES achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple long-video understanding benchmarks in both zero-shot and fully-supervised settings.

Recent advancements in large scale text-to-image models have opened new possibilities for guiding the creation of images through human-devised natural language. However, while prior literature has primarily focused on the generation of individual images, it is essential to consider the capability of these models to ensure coherency within a sequence of images to fulfill the demands of real-world applications such as storytelling. To address this, here we present a novel neural pipeline for generating a coherent storybook from the plain text of a story. Specifically, we leverage a combination of a pre-trained Large Language Model and a text-guided Latent Diffusion Model to generate coherent images. While previous story synthesis frameworks typically require a large-scale text-to-image model trained on expensive image-caption pairs to maintain the coherency, we employ simple textual inversion techniques along with detector-based semantic image editing which allows zero-shot generation of the coherent storybook. Experimental results show that our proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art image editing baselines.

Text-to-video (T2V) generation has recently attracted considerable attention, resulting in the development of numerous high-quality datasets that have propelled progress in this area. However, existing public datasets are primarily composed of isolated text-video (T-V) pairs and thus fail to support the modeling of coherent multi-clip video sequences. To address this limitation, we introduce CI-VID, a dataset that moves beyond isolated text-to-video (T2V) generation toward text-and-video-to-video (TV2V) generation, enabling models to produce coherent, multi-scene video sequences. CI-VID contains over 340,000 samples, each featuring a coherent sequence of video clips with text captions that capture both the individual content of each clip and the transitions between them, enabling visually and textually grounded generation. To further validate the effectiveness of CI-VID, we design a comprehensive, multi-dimensional benchmark incorporating human evaluation, VLM-based assessment, and similarity-based metrics. Experimental results demonstrate that models trained on CI-VID exhibit significant improvements in both accuracy and content consistency when generating video sequences. This facilitates the creation of story-driven content with smooth visual transitions and strong temporal coherence, underscoring the quality and practical utility of the CI-VID dataset We release the CI-VID dataset and the accompanying code for data construction and evaluation at: https://github.com/ymju-BAAI/CI-VID

Score Distillation Sampling (SDS) leverages pretrained 2D diffusion models to advance text-to-3D generation but neglects multi-view correlations, being prone to geometric inconsistencies and multi-face artifacts in the generated 3D content. In this work, we propose Coupled Score Distillation (CSD), a framework that couples multi-view joint distribution priors to ensure geometrically consistent 3D generation while enabling the stable and direct optimization of 3D Gaussian Splatting. Specifically, by reformulating the optimization as a multi-view joint optimization problem, we derive an effective optimization rule that effectively couples multi-view priors to guide optimization across different viewpoints while preserving the diversity of generated 3D assets. Additionally, we propose a framework that directly optimizes 3D Gaussian Splatting (3D-GS) with random initialization to generate geometrically consistent 3D content. We further employ a deformable tetrahedral grid, initialized from 3D-GS and refined through CSD, to produce high-quality, refined meshes. Quantitative and qualitative experimental results demonstrate the efficiency and competitive quality of our approach.

LiDAR-based human motion capture has garnered significant interest in recent years for its practicability in large-scale and unconstrained environments. However, most methods rely on cleanly segmented human point clouds as input, the accuracy and smoothness of their motion results are compromised when faced with noisy data, rendering them unsuitable for practical applications. To address these limitations and enhance the robustness and precision of motion capture with noise interference, we introduce LiveHPS++, an innovative and effective solution based on a single LiDAR system. Benefiting from three meticulously designed modules, our method can learn dynamic and kinematic features from human movements, and further enable the precise capture of coherent human motions in open settings, making it highly applicable to real-world scenarios. Through extensive experiments, LiveHPS++ has proven to significantly surpass existing state-of-the-art methods across various datasets, establishing a new benchmark in the field.

Interleaved image-text generation has emerged as a crucial multimodal task, aiming at creating sequences of interleaved visual and textual content given a query. Despite notable advancements in recent multimodal large language models (MLLMs), generating integrated image-text sequences that exhibit narrative coherence and entity and style consistency remains challenging due to poor training data quality. To address this gap, we introduce CoMM, a high-quality Coherent interleaved image-text MultiModal dataset designed to enhance the coherence, consistency, and alignment of generated multimodal content. Initially, CoMM harnesses raw data from diverse sources, focusing on instructional content and visual storytelling, establishing a foundation for coherent and consistent content. To further refine the data quality, we devise a multi-perspective filter strategy that leverages advanced pre-trained models to ensure the development of sentences, consistency of inserted images, and semantic alignment between them. Various quality evaluation metrics are designed to prove the high quality of the filtered dataset. Meanwhile, extensive few-shot experiments on various downstream tasks demonstrate CoMM's effectiveness in significantly enhancing the in-context learning capabilities of MLLMs. Moreover, we propose four new tasks to evaluate MLLMs' interleaved generation abilities, supported by a comprehensive evaluation framework. We believe CoMM opens a new avenue for advanced MLLMs with superior multimodal in-context learning and understanding ability.

The multifaceted nature of human perception and comprehension indicates that, when we think, our body can naturally take any combination of senses, a.k.a., modalities and form a beautiful picture in our brain. For example, when we see a cattery and simultaneously perceive the cat's purring sound, our brain can construct a picture of a cat in the cattery. Intuitively, generative AI models should hold the versatility of humans and be capable of generating images from any combination of modalities efficiently and collaboratively. This paper presents ImgAny, a novel end-to-end multi-modal generative model that can mimic human reasoning and generate high-quality images. Our method serves as the first attempt in its capacity of efficiently and flexibly taking any combination of seven modalities, ranging from language, audio to vision modalities, including image, point cloud, thermal, depth, and event data. Our key idea is inspired by human-level cognitive processes and involves the integration and harmonization of multiple input modalities at both the entity and attribute levels without specific tuning across modalities. Accordingly, our method brings two novel training-free technical branches: 1) Entity Fusion Branch ensures the coherence between inputs and outputs. It extracts entity features from the multi-modal representations powered by our specially constructed entity knowledge graph; 2) Attribute Fusion Branch adeptly preserves and processes the attributes. It efficiently amalgamates distinct attributes from diverse input modalities via our proposed attribute knowledge graph. Lastly, the entity and attribute features are adaptively fused as the conditional inputs to the pre-trained Stable Diffusion model for image generation. Extensive experiments under diverse modality combinations demonstrate its exceptional capability for visual content creation.

This paper proposes a new method to infer keypoints from arbitrary object categories in practical scenarios where point cloud data (PCD) are noisy, down-sampled and arbitrarily rotated. Our proposed model adheres to the following principles: i) keypoints inference is fully unsupervised (no annotation given), ii) keypoints position error should be low and resilient to PCD perturbations (robustness), iii) keypoints should not change their indexes for the intra-class objects (semantic coherence), iv) keypoints should be close to or proximal to PCD surface (compactness). We achieve these desiderata by proposing a new self-supervised training strategy for keypoints estimation that does not assume any a priori knowledge of the object class, and a model architecture with coupled auxiliary losses that promotes the desired keypoints properties. We compare the keypoints estimated by the proposed approach with those of the state-of-the-art unsupervised approaches. The experiments show that our approach outperforms by estimating keypoints with improved coverage (+9.41%) while being semantically consistent (+4.66%) that best characterizes the object's 3D shape for downstream tasks. Code and data are available at: https://github.com/IITPAVIS/SC3K

We introduce an optical tweezer platform for assembling and individually manipulating a two-dimensional register of nuclear spin qubits. Each nuclear spin qubit is encoded in the ground ^{1}S_{0} manifold of ^{87}Sr and is individually manipulated by site-selective addressing beams. We observe that spin relaxation is negligible after 5 seconds, indicating that T_1gg5 s. Furthermore, utilizing simultaneous manipulation of subsets of qubits, we demonstrate significant phase coherence over the entire register, estimating T_2^star = left(21pm7right) s and measuring T_2^echo=left(42pm6right) s.

Conditional Variational AutoEncoder (CVAE) effectively increases the diversity and informativeness of responses in open-ended dialogue generation tasks through enriching the context vector with sampled latent variables. However, due to the inherent one-to-many and many-to-one phenomena in human dialogues, the sampled latent variables may not correctly reflect the contexts' semantics, leading to irrelevant and incoherent generated responses. To resolve this problem, we propose Self-separated Conditional Variational AutoEncoder (abbreviated as SepaCVAE) that introduces group information to regularize the latent variables, which enhances CVAE by improving the responses' relevance and coherence while maintaining their diversity and informativeness. SepaCVAE actively divides the input data into groups, and then widens the absolute difference between data pairs from distinct groups, while narrowing the relative distance between data pairs in the same group. Empirical results from automatic evaluation and detailed analysis demonstrate that SepaCVAE can significantly boost responses in well-established open-domain dialogue datasets.

In this work, we investigate the human perception of coherence in open-domain dialogues. In particular, we address the problem of annotating and modeling the coherence of next-turn candidates while considering the entire history of the dialogue. First, we create the Switchboard Coherence (SWBD-Coh) corpus, a dataset of human-human spoken dialogues annotated with turn coherence ratings, where next-turn candidate utterances ratings are provided considering the full dialogue context. Our statistical analysis of the corpus indicates how turn coherence perception is affected by patterns of distribution of entities previously introduced and the Dialogue Acts used. Second, we experiment with different architectures to model entities, Dialogue Acts and their combination and evaluate their performance in predicting human coherence ratings on SWBD-Coh. We find that models combining both DA and entity information yield the best performances both for response selection and turn coherence rating.

Artificial Neural Networks are computational network models inspired by signal processing in the brain. These models have dramatically improved the performance of many learning tasks, including speech and object recognition. However, today's computing hardware is inefficient at implementing neural networks, in large part because much of it was designed for von Neumann computing schemes. Significant effort has been made to develop electronic architectures tuned to implement artificial neural networks that improve upon both computational speed and energy efficiency. Here, we propose a new architecture for a fully-optical neural network that, using unique advantages of optics, promises a computational speed enhancement of at least two orders of magnitude over the state-of-the-art and three orders of magnitude in power efficiency for conventional learning tasks. We experimentally demonstrate essential parts of our architecture using a programmable nanophotonic processor.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

Scholars have increasingly investigated "crowdsourcing" as an alternative to expert-based judgment or purely data-driven approaches to predicting the future. Under certain conditions, scholars have found that crowdsourcing can outperform these other approaches. However, despite interest in the topic and a series of successful use cases, relatively few studies have applied empirical model thinking to evaluate the accuracy and robustness of crowdsourcing in real-world contexts. In this paper, we offer three novel contributions. First, we explore a dataset of over 600,000 predictions from over 7,000 participants in a multi-year tournament to predict the decisions of the Supreme Court of the United States. Second, we develop a comprehensive crowd construction framework that allows for the formal description and application of crowdsourcing to real-world data. Third, we apply this framework to our data to construct more than 275,000 crowd models. We find that in out-of-sample historical simulations, crowdsourcing robustly outperforms the commonly-accepted null model, yielding the highest-known performance for this context at 80.8% case level accuracy. To our knowledge, this dataset and analysis represent one of the largest explorations of recurring human prediction to date, and our results provide additional empirical support for the use of crowdsourcing as a prediction method.

We propose a novel approach to conformal prediction for generative language models (LMs). Standard conformal prediction produces prediction sets -- in place of single predictions -- that have rigorous, statistical performance guarantees. LM responses are typically sampled from the model's predicted distribution over the large, combinatorial output space of natural language. Translating this process to conformal prediction, we calibrate a stopping rule for sampling different outputs from the LM that get added to a growing set of candidates until we are confident that the output set is sufficient. Since some samples may be low-quality, we also simultaneously calibrate and apply a rejection rule for removing candidates from the output set to reduce noise. Similar to conformal prediction, we prove that the sampled set returned by our procedure contains at least one acceptable answer with high probability, while still being empirically precise (i.e., small) on average. Furthermore, within this set of candidate responses, we show that we can also accurately identify subsets of individual components -- such as phrases or sentences -- that are each independently correct (e.g., that are not "hallucinations"), again with statistical guarantees. We demonstrate the promise of our approach on multiple tasks in open-domain question answering, text summarization, and radiology report generation using different LM variants.

Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of the visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theory, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. The precision weighting mechanism posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower precision, contributing to the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM), which demonstrate the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models and weight the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights effectively estimate the data predictability. We apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the United Kindom precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models by providing more proficient forecasting.

Complex, temporally evolving phenomena, from climate to brain activity, are governed by dynamical systems (DS). DS reconstruction (DSR) seeks to infer generative surrogate models of these from observed data, reproducing their long-term behavior. Existing DSR approaches require purpose-training for any new system observed, lacking the zero-shot and in-context inference capabilities known from LLMs. Here we introduce DynaMix, a novel multivariate ALRNN-based mixture-of-experts architecture pre-trained for DSR, the first DSR model able to generalize zero-shot to out-of-domain DS. Just from a provided context signal, without any re-training, DynaMix faithfully forecasts the long-term evolution of novel DS where existing time series (TS) foundation models, like Chronos, fail -- at a fraction of the number of parameters and orders of magnitude faster inference times. DynaMix outperforms TS foundation models in terms of long-term statistics, and often also short-term forecasts, even on real-world time series, like traffic or weather data, typically used for training and evaluating TS models, but not at all part of DynaMix' training corpus. We illustrate some of the failure modes of TS models for DSR problems, and conclude that models built on DS principles may bear a huge potential also for advancing the TS prediction field.

Meta-learning usually refers to a learning algorithm that learns from other learning algorithms. The problem of uncertainty in the predictions of neural networks shows that the world is only partially predictable and a learned neural network cannot generalize to its ever-changing surrounding environments. Therefore, the question is how a predictive model can represent multiple predictions simultaneously. We aim to provide a fundamental understanding of learning to learn in the contents of Decentralized Neural Networks (Decentralized NNs) and we believe this is one of the most important questions and prerequisites to building an autonomous intelligence machine. To this end, we shall demonstrate several pieces of evidence for tackling the problems above with Meta Learning in Decentralized NNs. In particular, we will present three different approaches to building such a decentralized learning system: (1) learning from many replica neural networks, (2) building the hierarchy of neural networks for different functions, and (3) leveraging different modality experts to learn cross-modal representations.

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches) and is further strengthened by position embeddings in both temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. As a large time series model, it demonstrates notable model transferability by large-scale pre-training, as well as contextual flexibility in token lengths, positioning it as a one-for-all forecaster.

Reasoning system dynamics is one of the most important analytical approaches for many scientific studies. With the initial state of a system as input, the recent graph neural networks (GNNs)-based methods are capable of predicting the future state distant in time with high accuracy. Although these methods have diverse designs in modeling the coordinates and interacting forces of the system, we show that they actually share a common paradigm that learns the integration of the velocity over the interval between the initial and terminal coordinates. However, their integrand is constant w.r.t. time. Inspired by this observation, we propose a new approach to predict the integration based on several velocity estimations with Newton-Cotes formulas and prove its effectiveness theoretically. Extensive experiments on several benchmarks empirically demonstrate consistent and significant improvement compared with the state-of-the-art methods.

Armed conflict has led to an unprecedented number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) - individuals who are forced out of their homes but remain within their country. IDPs often urgently require shelter, food, and healthcare, yet prediction of when large fluxes of IDPs will cross into an area remains a major challenge for aid delivery organizations. Accurate forecasting of IDP migration would empower humanitarian aid groups to more effectively allocate resources during conflicts. We show that monthly flow of IDPs from province to province in both Syria and Yemen can be accurately forecasted one month in advance, using publicly available data. We model monthly IDP flow using data on food price, fuel price, wage, geospatial, and news data. We find that machine learning approaches can more accurately forecast migration trends than baseline persistence models. Our findings thus potentially enable proactive aid allocation for IDPs in anticipation of forecasted arrivals.

Generalization to out-of-distribution (OOD) data is a critical challenge in machine learning. Ensemble-based methods, like weight space ensembles that interpolate model parameters, have been shown to achieve superior OOD performance. However, the underlying mechanism for their effectiveness remains unclear. In this study, we closely examine WiSE-FT, a popular weight space ensemble method that interpolates between a pre-trained and a fine-tuned model. We observe an unexpected phenomenon, in which WiSE-FT successfully corrects many cases where each individual model makes incorrect predictions, which contributes significantly to its OOD effectiveness. To gain further insights, we conduct theoretical analysis in a multi-class setting with a large number of spurious features. Our analysis predicts the above phenomenon and it further shows that ensemble-based models reduce prediction errors in the OOD settings by utilizing a more diverse set of spurious features. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that focuses on learning invariant features for better OOD performance, our findings suggest that incorporating a large number of diverse spurious features weakens their individual contributions, leading to improved overall OOD generalization performance. Empirically we demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing diverse spurious features on a MultiColorMNIST dataset, and our experimental results are consistent with the theoretical analysis. Building upon the new theoretical insights into the efficacy of ensemble methods, we further identify an issue of WiSE-FT caused by the overconfidence of fine-tuned models in OOD situations. This overconfidence magnifies the fine-tuned model's incorrect prediction, leading to deteriorated OOD ensemble performance. To remedy this problem, we propose a novel method called BAlaNced averaGing (BANG), which significantly enhances the OOD performance of WiSE-FT.

Creating a realistic animatable avatar from a single static portrait remains challenging. Existing approaches often struggle to capture subtle facial expressions, the associated global body movements, and the dynamic background. To address these limitations, we propose a novel framework that leverages a pretrained video diffusion transformer model to generate high-fidelity, coherent talking portraits with controllable motion dynamics. At the core of our work is a dual-stage audio-visual alignment strategy. In the first stage, we employ a clip-level training scheme to establish coherent global motion by aligning audio-driven dynamics across the entire scene, including the reference portrait, contextual objects, and background. In the second stage, we refine lip movements at the frame level using a lip-tracing mask, ensuring precise synchronization with audio signals. To preserve identity without compromising motion flexibility, we replace the commonly used reference network with a facial-focused cross-attention module that effectively maintains facial consistency throughout the video. Furthermore, we integrate a motion intensity modulation module that explicitly controls expression and body motion intensity, enabling controllable manipulation of portrait movements beyond mere lip motion. Extensive experimental results show that our proposed approach achieves higher quality with better realism, coherence, motion intensity, and identity preservation. Ours project page: https://fantasy-amap.github.io/fantasy-talking/.

Recently, the application of modern diffusion-based text-to-image generation models for creating artistic fonts, traditionally the domain of professional designers, has garnered significant interest. Diverging from the majority of existing studies that concentrate on generating artistic typography, our research aims to tackle a novel and more demanding challenge: the generation of text effects for multilingual fonts. This task essentially requires generating coherent and consistent visual content within the confines of a font-shaped canvas, as opposed to a traditional rectangular canvas. To address this task, we introduce a novel shape-adaptive diffusion model capable of interpreting the given shape and strategically planning pixel distributions within the irregular canvas. To achieve this, we curate a high-quality shape-adaptive image-text dataset and incorporate the segmentation mask as a visual condition to steer the image generation process within the irregular-canvas. This approach enables the traditionally rectangle canvas-based diffusion model to produce the desired concepts in accordance with the provided geometric shapes. Second, to maintain consistency across multiple letters, we also present a training-free, shape-adaptive effect transfer method for transferring textures from a generated reference letter to others. The key insights are building a font effect noise prior and propagating the font effect information in a concatenated latent space. The efficacy of our FontStudio system is confirmed through user preference studies, which show a marked preference (78% win-rates on aesthetics) for our system even when compared to the latest unrivaled commercial product, Adobe Firefly.

Diffusion models have become the State-of-the-Art for text-to-image generation, and increasing research effort has been dedicated to adapting the inference process of pretrained diffusion models to achieve zero-shot capabilities. An example is the generation of panorama images, which has been tackled in recent works by combining independent diffusion paths over overlapping latent features, which is referred to as joint diffusion, obtaining perceptually aligned panoramas. However, these methods often yield semantically incoherent outputs and trade-off diversity for uniformity. To overcome this limitation, we propose the Merge-Attend-Diffuse operator, which can be plugged into different types of pretrained diffusion models used in a joint diffusion setting to improve the perceptual and semantical coherence of the generated panorama images. Specifically, we merge the diffusion paths, reprogramming self- and cross-attention to operate on the aggregated latent space. Extensive quantitative and qualitative experimental analysis, together with a user study, demonstrate that our method maintains compatibility with the input prompt and visual quality of the generated images while increasing their semantic coherence. We release the code at https://github.com/aimagelab/MAD.

In this report, we present MagicEdit, a surprisingly simple yet effective solution to the text-guided video editing task. We found that high-fidelity and temporally coherent video-to-video translation can be achieved by explicitly disentangling the learning of content, structure and motion signals during training. This is in contradict to most existing methods which attempt to jointly model both the appearance and temporal representation within a single framework, which we argue, would lead to degradation in per-frame quality. Despite its simplicity, we show that MagicEdit supports various downstream video editing tasks, including video stylization, local editing, video-MagicMix and video outpainting.

While text-to-video diffusion models have made significant strides, many still face challenges in generating videos with temporal consistency. Within diffusion frameworks, guidance techniques have proven effective in enhancing output quality during inference; however, applying these methods to video diffusion models introduces additional complexity of handling computations across entire sequences. To address this, we propose a novel framework called MotionPrompt that guides the video generation process via optical flow. Specifically, we train a discriminator to distinguish optical flow between random pairs of frames from real videos and generated ones. Given that prompts can influence the entire video, we optimize learnable token embeddings during reverse sampling steps by using gradients from a trained discriminator applied to random frame pairs. This approach allows our method to generate visually coherent video sequences that closely reflect natural motion dynamics, without compromising the fidelity of the generated content. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach across various models.

The field of 3D reconstruction from images has rapidly evolved in the past few years, first with the introduction of Neural Radiance Field (NeRF) and more recently with 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS). The latter provides a significant edge over NeRF in terms of the training and inference speed, as well as the reconstruction quality. Although 3DGS works well for dense input images, the unstructured point-cloud like representation quickly overfits to the more challenging setup of extremely sparse input images (e.g., 3 images), creating a representation that appears as a jumble of needles from novel views. To address this issue, we propose regularized optimization and depth-based initialization. Our key idea is to introduce a structured Gaussian representation that can be controlled in 2D image space. We then constraint the Gaussians, in particular their position, and prevent them from moving independently during optimization. Specifically, we introduce single and multiview constraints through an implicit convolutional decoder and a total variation loss, respectively. With the coherency introduced to the Gaussians, we further constrain the optimization through a flow-based loss function. To support our regularized optimization, we propose an approach to initialize the Gaussians using monocular depth estimates at each input view. We demonstrate significant improvements compared to the state-of-the-art sparse-view NeRF-based approaches on a variety of scenes.

Directly learning to model 4D content, including shape, color and motion, is challenging. Existing methods depend on skeleton-based motion control and offer limited continuity in detail. To address this, we propose a novel framework that generates coherent 4D sequences with animation of 3D shapes under given conditions with dynamic evolution of shape and color over time through integrative latent mapping. We first employ an integrative latent unified representation to encode shape and color information of each detailed 3D geometry frame. The proposed skeleton-free latent 4D sequence joint representation allows us to leverage diffusion models in a low-dimensional space to control the generation of 4D sequences. Finally, temporally coherent 4D sequences are generated conforming well to the input images and text prompts. Extensive experiments on the ShapeNet, 3DBiCar and DeformingThings4D datasets for several tasks demonstrate that our method effectively learns to generate quality 3D shapes with color and 4D mesh animations, improving over the current state-of-the-art. Source code will be released.

Video paragraph captioning aims to generate a multi-sentence description of an untrimmed video with several temporal event locations in coherent storytelling. Following the human perception process, where the scene is effectively understood by decomposing it into visual (e.g. human, animal) and non-visual components (e.g. action, relations) under the mutual influence of vision and language, we first propose a visual-linguistic (VL) feature. In the proposed VL feature, the scene is modeled by three modalities including (i) a global visual environment; (ii) local visual main agents; (iii) linguistic scene elements. We then introduce an autoregressive Transformer-in-Transformer (TinT) to simultaneously capture the semantic coherence of intra- and inter-event contents within a video. Finally, we present a new VL contrastive loss function to guarantee learnt embedding features are matched with the captions semantics. Comprehensive experiments and extensive ablation studies on ActivityNet Captions and YouCookII datasets show that the proposed Visual-Linguistic Transformer-in-Transform (VLTinT) outperforms prior state-of-the-art methods on accuracy and diversity. Source code is made publicly available at: https://github.com/UARK-AICV/VLTinT.

We consider an experimentally obtainable SUP operator, defined by using a generalized superposition of products of field annihilation (a) and creation (a^dagger) operators of the type, A = saa^dagger+t{a^dagger}a with s^2+t^2=1. We apply this SUP operator on coherent and thermal quantum states, the states thus produced are referred as SUP-operated coherent state (SOCS) and SUP-operated thermal state (SOTS), respectively. In the present work, we report a comparative study between the higher-order nonclassical properties of SOCS and SOTS. The comparison is performed by using a set of nonclassicality witnesses (e.g., higher-order antiubunching, higher-order sub-Poissonian photon statistics, higher-order squeezing, Agarwal-Tara parameter, Klyshko's condition). The existence of higher-order nonclassicalities in SOCS and SOTS have been investigated for the first time. In view of possible experimental verification of the proposed scheme, we present exact calculations to reveal the effect of non-unit quantum efficiency of quantum detector on higher-order nonclassicalities.

Human forecasting accuracy in practice relies on the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, in which predictions about future events are significantly improved by aggregating across a crowd of individual forecasters. Past work on the forecasting ability of large language models (LLMs) suggests that frontier LLMs, as individual forecasters, underperform compared to the gold standard of a human crowd forecasting tournament aggregate. In Study 1, we expand this research by using an LLM ensemble approach consisting of a crowd of twelve LLMs. We compare the aggregated LLM predictions on 31 binary questions to that of a crowd of 925 human forecasters from a three-month forecasting tournament. Our main analysis shows that the LLM crowd outperforms a simple no-information benchmark and is statistically equivalent to the human crowd. We also observe an acquiescence effect, with mean model predictions being significantly above 50%, despite an almost even split of positive and negative resolutions. Moreover, in Study 2, we test whether LLM predictions (of GPT-4 and Claude 2) can be improved by drawing on human cognitive output. We find that both models' forecasting accuracy benefits from exposure to the median human prediction as information, improving accuracy by between 17% and 28%: though this leads to less accurate predictions than simply averaging human and machine forecasts. Our results suggest that LLMs can achieve forecasting accuracy rivaling that of human crowd forecasting tournaments: via the simple, practically applicable method of forecast aggregation. This replicates the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect for LLMs, and opens up their use for a variety applications throughout society.

Building predictive models for robust and accurate prediction of stock prices and stock price movement is a challenging research problem to solve. The well-known efficient market hypothesis believes in the impossibility of accurate prediction of future stock prices in an efficient stock market as the stock prices are assumed to be purely stochastic. However, numerous works proposed by researchers have demonstrated that it is possible to predict future stock prices with a high level of precision using sophisticated algorithms, model architectures, and the selection of appropriate variables in the models. This chapter proposes a collection of predictive regression models built on deep learning architecture for robust and precise prediction of the future prices of a stock listed in the diversified sectors in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The Metastock tool is used to download the historical stock prices over a period of two years (2013- 2014) at 5 minutes intervals. While the records for the first year are used to train the models, the testing is carried out using the remaining records. The design approaches of all the models and their performance results are presented in detail. The models are also compared based on their execution time and accuracy of prediction.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often generate outputs that lack grounding in real-world facts, a phenomenon known as hallucinations. Prior research has associated hallucinations with model uncertainty, leveraging this relationship for hallucination detection and mitigation. In this paper, we challenge the underlying assumption that all hallucinations are associated with uncertainty. Using knowledge detection and uncertainty measurement methods, we demonstrate that models can hallucinate with high certainty even when they have the correct knowledge. We further show that high-certainty hallucinations are consistent across models and datasets, distinctive enough to be singled out, and challenge existing mitigation methods. Our findings reveal an overlooked aspect of hallucinations, emphasizing the need to understand their origins and improve mitigation strategies to enhance LLM safety. The code is available at https://github.com/technion-cs-nlp/Trust_me_Im_wrong .

Recent studies have demonstrated the great power of Transformer models for time series forecasting. One of the key elements that lead to the transformer's success is the channel-independent (CI) strategy to improve the training robustness. However, the ignorance of the correlation among different channels in CI would limit the model's forecasting capacity. In this work, we design a special Transformer, i.e., Channel Aligned Robust Blend Transformer (CARD for short), that addresses key shortcomings of CI type Transformer in time series forecasting. First, CARD introduces a channel-aligned attention structure that allows it to capture both temporal correlations among signals and dynamical dependence among multiple variables over time. Second, in order to efficiently utilize the multi-scale knowledge, we design a token blend module to generate tokens with different resolutions. Third, we introduce a robust loss function for time series forecasting to alleviate the potential overfitting issue. This new loss function weights the importance of forecasting over a finite horizon based on prediction uncertainties. Our evaluation of multiple long-term and short-term forecasting datasets demonstrates that CARD significantly outperforms state-of-the-art time series forecasting methods. The code is available at the following repository:https://github.com/wxie9/CARD

Language models have made significant progress in generating coherent text and predicting next tokens based on input prompts. This study compares the next-token prediction performance of two well-known models: OpenAI's GPT-2 and Meta's Llama-2-7b-chat-hf on Theory of Mind (ToM) tasks. To evaluate their capabilities, we built a dataset from 10 short stories sourced from the Explore ToM Dataset. We enhanced these stories by programmatically inserting additional sentences (infills) using GPT-4, creating variations that introduce different levels of contextual complexity. This setup enables analysis of how increasing context affects model performance. We tested both models under four temperature settings (0.01, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0) and evaluated their ability to predict the next token across three reasoning levels. Zero-order reasoning involves tracking the state, either current (ground truth) or past (memory). First-order reasoning concerns understanding another's mental state (e.g., "Does Anne know the apple is salted?"). Second-order reasoning adds recursion (e.g., "Does Anne think that Charles knows the apple is salted?"). Our results show that adding more infill sentences slightly reduces prediction accuracy, as added context increases complexity and ambiguity. Llama-2 consistently outperforms GPT-2 in prediction accuracy, especially at lower temperatures, demonstrating greater confidence in selecting the most probable token. As reasoning complexity rises, model responses diverge more. Notably, GPT-2 and Llama-2 display greater variability in predictions during first- and second-order reasoning tasks. These findings illustrate how model architecture, temperature, and contextual complexity influence next-token prediction, contributing to a better understanding of the strengths and limitations of current language models.

Language models (LMs) are powerful tools for natural language processing, but they often struggle to produce coherent and fluent text when they are small. Models with around 125M parameters such as GPT-Neo (small) or GPT-2 (small) can rarely generate coherent and consistent English text beyond a few words even after extensive training. This raises the question of whether the emergence of the ability to produce coherent English text only occurs at larger scales (with hundreds of millions of parameters or more) and complex architectures (with many layers of global attention). In this work, we introduce TinyStories, a synthetic dataset of short stories that only contain words that a typical 3 to 4-year-olds usually understand, generated by GPT-3.5 and GPT-4. We show that TinyStories can be used to train and evaluate LMs that are much smaller than the state-of-the-art models (below 10 million total parameters), or have much simpler architectures (with only one transformer block), yet still produce fluent and consistent stories with several paragraphs that are diverse and have almost perfect grammar, and demonstrate reasoning capabilities. We also introduce a new paradigm for the evaluation of language models: We suggest a framework which uses GPT-4 to grade the content generated by these models as if those were stories written by students and graded by a (human) teacher. This new paradigm overcomes the flaws of standard benchmarks which often requires the model's output to be very structures, and moreover provides a multidimensional score for the model, providing scores for different capabilities such as grammar, creativity and consistency. We hope that TinyStories can facilitate the development, analysis and research of LMs, especially for low-resource or specialized domains, and shed light on the emergence of language capabilities in LMs.

The techniques for 3D indoor scene capturing are widely used, but the meshes produced leave much to be desired. In this paper, we propose "RoomDreamer", which leverages powerful natural language to synthesize a new room with a different style. Unlike existing image synthesis methods, our work addresses the challenge of synthesizing both geometry and texture aligned to the input scene structure and prompt simultaneously. The key insight is that a scene should be treated as a whole, taking into account both scene texture and geometry. The proposed framework consists of two significant components: Geometry Guided Diffusion and Mesh Optimization. Geometry Guided Diffusion for 3D Scene guarantees the consistency of the scene style by applying the 2D prior to the entire scene simultaneously. Mesh Optimization improves the geometry and texture jointly and eliminates the artifacts in the scanned scene. To validate the proposed method, real indoor scenes scanned with smartphones are used for extensive experiments, through which the effectiveness of our method is demonstrated.

We present a self-supervised method to improve an agent's abilities in describing arbitrary objects while actively exploring a generic environment. This is a challenging problem, as current models struggle to obtain coherent image captions due to different camera viewpoints and clutter. We propose a three-phase framework to fine-tune existing captioning models that enhances caption accuracy and consistency across views via a consensus mechanism. First, an agent explores the environment, collecting noisy image-caption pairs. Then, a consistent pseudo-caption for each object instance is distilled via consensus using a large language model. Finally, these pseudo-captions are used to fine-tune an off-the-shelf captioning model, with the addition of contrastive learning. We analyse the performance of the combination of captioning models, exploration policies, pseudo-labeling methods, and fine-tuning strategies, on our manually labeled test set. Results show that a policy can be trained to mine samples with higher disagreement compared to classical baselines. Our pseudo-captioning method, in combination with all policies, has a higher semantic similarity compared to other existing methods, and fine-tuning improves caption accuracy and consistency by a significant margin. Code and test set annotations available at https://hsp-iit.github.io/embodied-captioning/

Video face restoration faces a critical challenge in maintaining temporal consistency while recovering fine facial details from degraded inputs. This paper presents a novel approach that extends Vector-Quantized Variational Autoencoders (VQ-VAEs), pretrained on static high-quality portraits, into a video restoration framework through variational latent space modeling. Our key innovation lies in reformulating discrete codebook representations as Dirichlet-distributed continuous variables, enabling probabilistic transitions between facial features across frames. A spatio-temporal Transformer architecture jointly models inter-frame dependencies and predicts latent distributions, while a Laplacian-constrained reconstruction loss combined with perceptual (LPIPS) regularization enhances both pixel accuracy and visual quality. Comprehensive evaluations on blind face restoration, video inpainting, and facial colorization tasks demonstrate state-of-the-art performance. This work establishes an effective paradigm for adapting intensive image priors, pretrained on high-quality images, to video restoration while addressing the critical challenge of flicker artifacts. The source code has been open-sourced and is available at https://github.com/fudan-generative-vision/DicFace.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs), such as GPT-4V and Llama 3.2 vision, have garnered significant research attention for their ability to leverage Large Language Models (LLMs) in multimodal tasks. However, their potential is constrained by inherent challenges, including proprietary restrictions, substantial computational demands, and limited accessibility. Smaller models, such as GIT and BLIP, exhibit marked limitations, often failing to generate coherent and consistent text beyond a few tokens, even with extensive training. This underscores a pivotal inquiry: how small can a VLM be and still produce fluent and consistent text? Drawing inspiration from the exceptional learning process of 3-4 year old children, who rely heavily on visual cues for understanding and communication, we introduce two novel datasets: ShortDesc (featuring concise image descriptions) and LongDesc (containing more detailed image descriptions). These datasets consist of image-text pairs where the text is restricted to the simple vocabulary and syntax typically used by young children, generated with a scaled- down model, GPT-4o. Using these datasets, we demonstrate that it is possible to train VLMs that are significantly smaller, up to 10 times smaller than state of the art(SOTA) small VLMs while maintaining architectural simplicity. To evaluate the outputs, we leverage GPT-4o to grade the text, as if stories written by students, on creativity, meaningfulness, and consistency, assigning scores out of 10. This method addresses limitations of standard benchmarks by accommodating unstructured outputs and providing a multidimensional evaluation of the model capabilities. Our findings contribute to the development of lightweight, accessible multimodal models for resource constrained environments.

Large Language Models (LLMs) hold immense potential to generate synthetic data of high quality and utility, which has numerous applications from downstream model training to practical data utilisation. However, contemporary models, despite their impressive capacities, consistently struggle to produce both coherent and diverse data. To address the coherency issue, we introduce contrastive expert guidance, where the difference between the logit distributions of fine-tuned and base language models is emphasised to ensure domain adherence. In order to ensure diversity, we utilise existing real and synthetic examples as negative prompts to the model. We deem this dual-pronged approach to logit reshaping as STEER: Semantic Text Enhancement via Embedding Repositioning. STEER operates at inference-time and systematically guides the LLMs to strike a balance between adherence to the data distribution (ensuring semantic fidelity) and deviation from prior synthetic examples or existing real datasets (ensuring diversity and authenticity). This delicate balancing act is achieved by dynamically moving towards or away from chosen representations in the latent space. STEER demonstrates improved performance over previous synthetic data generation techniques, exhibiting better balance between data diversity and coherency across three distinct tasks: hypothesis generation, toxic and non-toxic comment generation, and commonsense reasoning task generation. We demonstrate how STEER allows for fine-tuned control over the diversity-coherency trade-off via its hyperparameters, highlighting its versatility.

Most existing text summarization datasets are compiled from the news domain, where summaries have a flattened discourse structure. In such datasets, summary-worthy content often appears in the beginning of input articles. Moreover, large segments from input articles are present verbatim in their respective summaries. These issues impede the learning and evaluation of systems that can understand an article's global content structure as well as produce abstractive summaries with high compression ratio. In this work, we present a novel dataset, BIGPATENT, consisting of 1.3 million records of U.S. patent documents along with human written abstractive summaries. Compared to existing summarization datasets, BIGPATENT has the following properties: i) summaries contain a richer discourse structure with more recurring entities, ii) salient content is evenly distributed in the input, and iii) lesser and shorter extractive fragments are present in the summaries. Finally, we train and evaluate baselines and popular learning models on BIGPATENT to shed light on new challenges and motivate future directions for summarization research.

We propose a novel feed-forward network for video inpainting. We use a set of sampled video frames as the reference to take visible contents to fill the hole of a target frame. Our video inpainting network consists of two stages. The first stage is an alignment module that uses computed homographies between the reference frames and the target frame. The visible patches are then aggregated based on the frame similarity to fill in the target holes roughly. The second stage is a non-local attention module that matches the generated patches with known reference patches (in space and time) to refine the previous global alignment stage. Both stages consist of large spatial-temporal window size for the reference and thus enable modeling long-range correlations between distant information and the hole regions. Therefore, even challenging scenes with large or slowly moving holes can be handled, which have been hardly modeled by existing flow-based approach. Our network is also designed with a recurrent propagation stream to encourage temporal consistency in video results. Experiments on video object removal demonstrate that our method inpaints the holes with globally and locally coherent contents.